Monica Kingsley

S&P 500 followed up my projected path yesterday – dip soon bought, then chop and up, ignoring bearish macro data. GS assigning lower odds to recession made for the dip to high 4,270s, as the implications are bearish, but given the quite greedy sentiment, stocks were slated to ignore that given the bullish market breadth (expanding leadership while tech didn‘t sink), allowing me to call for more upside to develop overnight, i.e. justifying holding the tactical intraday trade.Today‘s commentary will be brief, focusing on charts and levels within the most interesting markets below.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.Gold, Silver and MinersI called for gold and silver to do well yesterday and today – and they‘re likely to deliver, modestly deliver. The levels below should hold even during FOMC turbulence the way things stand now – quoting „I‘m still not looking for breach of gold $1,930 – $1,950 , or silver $23.15 (I had to update the silver zone of $23.15 - $23.40 to its lower border only thanks to prior copper weakness)“.Crude OilGlimmer of hope in crude oil – black gold seems set not to decline heavily (to or below $68) this week, following yesterday‘s price action, and continued USD dillydallying and recessionary tiptoeing.CopperThe caption says it all, copper and commodities are doing quite well. The farther and longer before FOMC the red metal stays above $3.77, the better for odds of $3.72 holding up during the somewhat hawkish leaning upcoming conference.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 made two runs over 4,300, yet was rejected in each. Bonds though didn‘t paint universally negative picture – only the sectoral composition of the decline did. Whatever caught up Friday and before, saw progress dialed back yesterday. Not on huge volume, and given the HYG price action, we‘re likely to see buyers stepping in after the opening bell‘s selling.Encouragingly, stocks didn‘t tank on RBA or poor German data, precious metals remain relatively strong, but cracks in the tech dam are starting to emerge – AAPL, and NVDA a bit. Thus far, the market is more likely to offer intraday opportunities in line with my latest offering than a real tactically shorting one (that‘s approaching, but not yet quite here). Seems though 4,320 to be a tough nut to crack in June...Check out the extensive Sunday‘s analysis if you hadn‘t done so already.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe call for decreasing momentum and consolidation of Friday‘s sharp gains worked out, and stocks broke even below 4,283 test, doing so after (and not before) heading for the 4,305 resistance. That gives slight upper hand to the sellers today, but 4,247 should hold (and not even be seriously approached).Credit MarketsJunk bonds held up actually well yesterday, and as long as $74.20 holds today, ES buyers can come back later this week. Low volume session in a tight range would be ideal for such an outcome.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 quickly dipped on NFPs, and was eagerly soon bought. Even 4,283 where I expected some resistance, didn‘t last too long. Best of all, it wasn‘t up to tech to do the heavy lifting – the rotations were strong on a daily basis, giving e.g. smallcaps best day in months. Industrials with materials and energy also played their part, making any Friday downswing impossible. The beginning of next week though shouldn‘t be too easy. USD recovered after the debt ceiling bill relief, making for renewed daily rise in yields. The short end of the curve isn‘t indicating the Fed would cut any time soon (this disconnect in the bond market has to be worked on still, but the 6-m is acknowledging no rate cut as remotely near), and 10-y yield took NFPs as no questions asked proof of the real economy not doing so bad (ignore all prior revisions, incl. in hourly earnings).Recession is though still coming – unrevised uneployment rose to 3.7% already, and earlier in the week manufacturing PMIs took another turn for the worse. The wealth of recession indicators agree, from M2, housing, forward earnings, bank lending, slowly deteriorating credit quality, but chiefly still declining LEIs and inverted yield curve. Thus far still, it looks to be a mild one, taking unemployment to high 4% values – unemployment or nominal wage pressures won‘t get as bad as during prior downturns.Market breadth improved a lot on a daily basis, but the whole market remains selective, and in spite of the recent catch up by laggards, and driven by tech (the level of hype isn‘t that bad, but earnings have to play catch up to the elevated valuations, and also the post-debt ceiling deal rotation out of the sector didn‘t yet come even briefly – to be clear, I expect tech FOMO to last a bit longer still), consumer discretionaries (neither AMZN nor TSLA are badly overextended), and communications (META is the prime correction candidate rather than NFLX), and NVDA is in a FOMO and valuation category of its own.Sure that Treasury replenishing its TGA is a negative, but much depends where that bid for fresh Treasuries comes from. If from retail buyers liquidating deposits, then it‘s 100% bearish impact – if from banks drawing down reverse repos, then it‘s neutral. All in all, the net effect is going to be negative over the nearest months, but not nearly as negative as feared – look at the Chicago Financial Conditions Index only slowly rising, and as complacent as VIX.So, there is still more ES upside, and I don‘t want to call for shorts and be forced to hold them just because the overwhelming majority of technical signs favor that (such as extremely poor financials‘ performance) the way I had done with the latest unhappy medium-term short – regardless of the great number of daily bullish calls outnumbering the bearish ones for that trade‘s duration, or the reassessments before the debt ceiling deal or as a minimum hedge call right after its announcement.While this created a rare situation of my swing trades not having the latest one as a truly swing one, I‘ve reflected the situation of not all of you heeding / being practically able to take advantage of all the good calls given in the daily articles and Twitter / Telegram – I‘ll solve this by adding Monica‘s Intraday Ssignals to the existing line-up of services, which would focus on intraday ES trade calls with much real-time commentary. It‘ll be about tight trade parameters with focus on high confidence setups, giving 2-4 entry - stop-loss - take profit signals (day orders) per week on average on top of commentary powering your own decisions - delivered via Telegram (closed group). Current premium clients and those who left me during this long short, can get free subscription upon mailing me, if interested – details are both on my site and on my Patreon site. All future subscribers to premium daily analyses will get intraday signals on extra advantageous terms. You can tell me already now what you think – I‘ll be grateful for that, my purpose is to serve you better. Let‘s make up for whatever we all lost – and if you were following the daily calls / tweaking them to your ends, let‘s broaden our arsenal!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTime for decreasing momentum and consolidation of Friday‘s sharp gains – not yet a turnaround lower, but 4,283 test before heading for the 4,305 resistance (looking for increasingly active sellers there), with 4,335 being the ultimate test of this long advance off Oct lows on overall troubled breadth.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver acted weaker than they should on Friday, but I‘m still not looking for breach of gold $1,930 – $1,950 , or silver $23.15 (I had to update the silver zone of $23.15 - $23.40 to its lower border only thanks to copper weakness).Crude OilCrude recovery needs to continue, taking it above $72.70 decisively – it won‘t be easy as the upside momentum could have been stronger following NFPs lifting up everything in sight.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears made good progress initially as yesterday‘s data confirmed the hawkish Fed takeaway – yet my bond targets wenen‘t met, indicating that the field is now open to the bulls, which allowed me to call for ES going up all the way to the Sunday futures open in the low 4,240s.Following today‘s non-farm payrolls, which I though expect to be revised lower in the upcoming months just as the prior months were, I‘m looking for Fed Jun 25 hike odds going up, and the talk about raising only in Jul to gradually die down.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSolid volume, with daily animal spirits returning. What was beaten down to the proximity of supports (IWM, XLI, XRT, XLB), stabilized via some respectable upswings within respective ranges, and the ES rally got a distinctly less defensive posture than was the case on Wednesday. What was driving the upswing and doing well before (AI connected tech, communications and consumer discretionaries), continued its bullish job; The key confirmation of a turn higher to continue, came from financials.I‘m also looking for stocks to weather the stronger than expected (than even I expected – major banks were way more guarded) non-farm payrolls finely – and the instinctive dip reflecting better odds of Jun 25bp hike, was already bought really fast. Intraday consolidation followed by more upside is the theme of today.4,247 with 4,236 are nearest supports, but the march towards 4,283 (more than Friday‘s job) would rightfully get more attention once the 4,247 resistance turning support is gone.In case you took me up on the daily bullish calls, and noted the hedges idea from Sunday‘s extensive article, you benefited. And even more so in case you‘re combining the full scope of services with the Twitter feed.The market breadth for the whole S&P 500 and Nasdaq improved just enough yesterday to carry both sectors higher – as they consolidate sharp gains within their respective rotations. No warning sign of a crash today or Monday really.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 acted on Tue‘s tech internals clue, and its decline into the opening bell and early session was stopped by tech market breadth improving while the usual suspects (chiefly retail and materials) continued clear downtrends. Industrials, financials and Russell 2000 haven‘t so far broken below key respective lows.Overall, the nature of the rebound was defensive (select tech, communications, utilities, staples and healthcare) did well, which together with bond market reprieve gives good odds of ES bulls not throwing in the towel today – tight range, possibly setting up for sell the debt ceiling bill news.The sectors to be still in if looking for earnings justification, is communications and consumer discretionaries – similarly to Big Tech not bid up to the stratosphere on P/E count, these three (with non-banking financials) will be most resilient when tighter financial conditions following debt ceiling resolution strike. Even the latest round of Fed speakers raised their case for bullish pause in June, claiming that Fed funds rate isn‘t yet at the terminal level, thereby making Jun 25bp hike not the base case scenario. Looking though at relative core inflation data stagnation (poor disinflation there), I don‘t think 25bp hike should be written off really – and as you‘ll read below on the job market data expectations, it‘s looking correct.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStrong volume, but animal spirits aren‘t there, no strong base advance. Today‘s data should work in a hawkish Fed confirmation way, but the buyers will be able to close not only above 4,188, but also below 4,209 unless Big Tech erases at least half of its two-day decline. Odds are tech would accomplish that mission, but the weakening rotations wouldn‘t do all that much for the lagging sectors, keeping ES around the 4,198 level at best for any buyers out there.The market breadth for the whole S&P 500 is terrible, and even the Nasdaq breadth is unhealthy. I‘m giving limited mileage to the lower knot shown on the chart for S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 was complacent yesterday given VIX only at 18, but the key turn happened in tech, in the waning NDX market breadth. No rush to the exit door yet, but the rotation into value and cyclicals was barely there, and more than debt limit bill vote is to blame.CDS have made up their mind – there wouldn‘t be a default, they are declining. And Treasury bringing up fresh supply to the bond market means there would be less liquidity to prop up assets paper and real – the dollar is going to like that.Couple that with my prognosis for today‘s data, and the result is more confirmation of Jun 25bp hike. Deleveraging and derisking is the theme today.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver correction clearly isn‘t over, but $1,930 and (not $23.15 but) $22.40 at worst, should hold.Crude OilCrude oil woes are back, with vengeance – targets given in the chart. Similarly copper is set for $3.55 rendezvous, for exactly the same reasons.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Debt ceiling tentative agreement optimism continued into Memorial Day, and S&P 500 opened the Globex session with a bullish gap, which the sellers (unsuccessfully) attempted to close, and the true battle of today is going to be waged in the 4,235 – 4,245 area.In short, if there is going to be any sell the announcement news, it has to happen early in the regular session, otherwise the very narrow breadth and extremely selective ES upswing feeding off AI, Big Tech, communications and consumer discretionaries, is to continue.Quoting from Sunday‘s extensive analysis:(…) If anything, the market has become ever more concentrated, with NVDA earnings guidance reflection taking valuations to ridiculous 188. That‘s the AI side of the market, on fire and leading. The only other sectors doing well apart from tech with semis segment, are communications and consumer discretionaries – effect strong enough to overpower badly lagging industrials, materials, financials (chiefly banking), retail, smallcaps and defensives (utilities and staples), which brought about yet another daily bullish call before the opening bell Friday..Debt ceiling deal hype is another factor going in for the bulls as any sell the news reaction seems to me postponed by a couple of days at least if Yellen moved the new make or break date to Jun 05 (there is still almost $40bn in TGA). Friday saw much of the hope for a deal to be reached soon, priced in – and the tentative one announced this weekend, will likely invite a some sell the news reaction before the AI mania continues. The midnight May 31 vote on it is a downswing risk, but I‘m not looking for a stunner, and instead expect the deal to pass.So, the only variable the market chose to override Friday, was somewhat hotter core PCE, which didn‘t result in more than a 30min dip. Jun 25bp hike is now the base case scenario, and the short end of the curve isn‘t budging in its bets on Fed pause then, and rate cuts going into 2024. Tech still doesn‘t mind the ever widening disconnect to rates, and apart from AI FOMO, a smaller portion of the explanation is that rates on the long end are approaching their peak, and with the onset of recession (most likely Jul-Aug-Sep), these would retreat to arround midpoint of their yearly range (3.50% for 10-y).Unless a debt ceiling deal fails, the Fed wouldn‘t back off inflation fight and balance sheet shrinking, and with the Treasury back to issuing fresh debt when commercial bank lending to the private sector isn‘t exactly expanding (crowding out effect), new buyers incl. from abroad would have to step up to the plate – and any flight to safety would have of course negative implications for the stock market standing on increasingly fever legs at a time when LEIs keep still sharply decelerating (inevitable recession)...Let‘s contrast the leaders and laggards sectorally in the below two charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) as an illustrative companion to the market breadth issues presented Sunday.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 is reaching for fresh yearly highs, but this isn‘t accompanied by improvements in market breadth – neither stark nor subtle. If anything, the market has become ever more concentrated, with NVDA earnings guidance reflection taking valuations to ridiculous 188.   That‘s the AI side of the market, on fire and leading. The only other sectors doing well apart from tech with semis segment, are communications and consumer discretionaries – effect strong enough to overpower badly lagging industrials, materials, financials (chiefly banking), retail, smallcaps and defensives (utilities and staples), which brought about yet another daily bullish call before the opening bell Friday.   Debt ceiling deal hype is another factor going in for the bulls as any sell the news reaction seems to me postponed by a couple of days at least if Yellen moved the new make or break date to Jun 05 (there is still almost $40bn in TGA).   Friday saw much of the hope for a deal to be reached soon, priced in – and the tentative one announced this weekend, will likely invite a some sell the news reaction before the AI mania continues. The midnight May 31 vote on it is a downswing risk, but I‘m not looking for a stunner, and instead expect the deal to pass.   So, the only variable the market chose to override Friday, was somewhat hotter core PCE, which didn‘t result in more than a 30min dip. Jun 25bp hike is now the base case scenario, and the short end of the curve isn‘t budging in its bets on Fed pause then, and rate cuts going into 2024.   Tech still doesn‘t mind the ever widening disconnect to rates, and apart from AI FOMO, a smaller portion of the explanation is that rates on the long end are approaching their peak, and with the onset of recession (most likely Jul-Aug-Sep), these would retreat to arround midpoint of their yearly range (3.50% for 10-y).   Unless a debt ceiling deal fails, the Fed wouldn‘t back off inflation fight and balance sheet shrinking, and with the Treasury back to issuing fresh debt when commercial bank lending to the private sector isn‘t exactly expanding (crowding out effect), new buyers incl. from abroad would have to step up to the plate – and any flight to safety would have of course negative implications for the stock market standing on increasingly fever legs at a time when LEIs keep still sharply decelerating (inevitable recession)...   Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock. So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.   Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.   S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook   There is still more to squeeze from this rally, no matter how weak internally it is. Bears have to forget about 4,154, and focus on defending (not the indefensible 4,225 but) 4,235 to 4,245 area – that‘s where the bulls will run into concerted selling.   Not that it would decide the fate of this run aka hyped bull market – 4,275 is a logical target if you look at the weekly chart and consider late Apr setback‘s extension magnet for the buyers, which they aren‘t likely to break to the upside before the medium-term bearish factors and recession catch up.   So, remembering what I stated Friday: (…) That means if you‘re willing to jump in and out fast, you can take the upcoming intraday dip while benefiting from whatever upside next week brings – as a hedge to the medium-term bearish position.   that means you can either chase the remaining upside, minimum as a hedge on the long side, or revert back to or close to the original very wide stop-loss (inititally 4,320, which due to the position sizing relative to dollar value of the given move in percentage terms of your account – my max. 8% rule – shouldn‘t have put you in danger), because I remain convinced we would see meaningful S&P 500 deterioration especially over the summer months. Should the debt ceiling deal announcement not result in a meaningful sell-the-news reaction, I would prefer to reshort from higher levels than to move the current stop-loss considerably higher.   Why then the moves in stop-loss placements this week? That‘s on account of market breadth developments resulting in more or less fuel ahead in the market advance..   The first swallows thereof would coincide with Treasury turning to replenish its account at the Fed, taking off liquidity, which would have a stronger effect than any disinflation progress on Fed easing bets (and don‘t look for disinflation to help too much to drive down nominal wage pressures). What would though an investor do?   For now, it‘s still going to be about Big Tech, communications and consumer discretionaries with some non-banking financials, dividend aristocrats, and then on longer investment horizon, consumer staples, energy and generally necessities of life, these are to benefit the most.     Such an advance breadth isn‘t characteristic of bull markets – the Oct momentum and increasing breadth has become bistory already last year. See equal weighted S&P 500 if in doubt – after the earnings recession, there isn‘t enough momentum in earnings recovery apart from select few and far between.   Credit Markets   Pause in declining bonds indeed materialized, and would prove temporary and coinciding with the upcoming stock market top. For now, HYG would continue the slow appreciation path, supporting stocks during the remaining upside left. True, when the Jan-May period and the month of May isn‘t a down month, it then takes a while for the positive momentum in stocks to fizzle out, which is exactly what we‘re looking at entering Jun.   Gold, Silver and Miners   Gold with silver did catch some bid on inflation data with debt ceiling kicking the can down the road Friday advance hopes. Not only thanks to disinflation, the correction has to go further in time, but I remain bullish especially silver, and only then gold when it comes to year end closing prices – thanks to the return of inflation coupled with subpar growth, equals stagflation.       Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

First 4,136 served as S&P 500 support, then 4,154 – stocks disregarded weak bond market posture, and half of the intraday progress in driving non-tech stocks lower, was lost. Yesterday was special in that the advance-decline line registered over -900 while the 500-strong index rose solidly.The explanation is of course tech AI chase, and NVDA exuberant guidance based – tech market breadth deteriorated as well, and the stock market leadership became even narrower than it had been in recent weeks and months.What‘s new, is the relief over the debt ceiling 2-year deal optimism – resolution in the making that still has to pass both chambers. Outshining inflation, tight lending, rising bankruptcies, deposits outflow and other signs of approaching recession such as no end in sight to declining LEIs. Those National Financial Conditions index the Chicago Fed publishes, would soon turn up, and see Treasury reversing position and withdrawing liquidity through replenishing its TGA at the Fed.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,154 `has become support again, breaking which requires further swing in Fed tightening bets (as if 11% odds of two rate hikes till Jul weren‘t enough). Jun 25bp are priced in, yet the disconnect to expecting cuts in autumn, and between rising yields and tech being frantically bid up (AI stealing ever greater share of the appreciation), persist – slight improvement in the former, with even narrower leadership disregarding retail, banking, industrials and materials in the latter.Needless to say, the times when tech was the sole outperformer while the rest lagged badly, which is true also about discretionaries, didn‘t end up well for the S&P 500.Bears aren‘t going to have a field day today – 4,136 is in no way on the table. A little to no upset core PCE figure would result in rally continuation, and overcoming 4,177 with 4,188 – there will be attempts to shake off disappointments even if that means more hawkish Fed as a consequence. Higher targets require cooperation from non-tech, and that won‘t come today too easily. Sell the news reaction to debt ceiling deal accompanied by dollar appreciation is on the table as money would flow away from the tech hiding place into inordinately beaten down long Treasuries (10-y yield is 3.83% already, and looking at rejection before getting much closer to 4%).Also, the week preceding Memorial Day is usually a down one, but stock market gains next week (i.e. the week containing Memorial Day) happen more often than not.That means if you‘re willing to jump in and out fast, you can take the upcoming intraday dip while benefiting from whatever upside next week brings – as a hedge to the medium-term bearish position.Credit MarketsPause in declining bonds seems at hand, and truly strong stock market bullish spirits would require high betas kicking in – last Wednesday‘s feat though won‘t be replicated I‘m afraid. I‘m looking for a modestly bullish turn up only.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 tumbled right through my 4,154 support, reaching all the way to another key milestone of 4,115. Heavy selling across the board, and my key metrics of XLF, XRT, XLI, XLB and IWM stumbled sufficiently just as tech did.I‘m though looking for tech to not continue easily lower here, HYG and VIX indicate. The former by printing a lower knot before S&P 500 woke up, the latter by VIX being unable to hold 20.50.Respite in selling is ahead, and ES taking on 4,165 is quite likely in order to close the preceding gap, even without being powered by debt ceiling resolution. The Fitch warning isn‘t enough at the moment, and a deal at the very last minute remains most likely, as the costs of not reaching it are prohibitively high.So, today would be about unemployment claims allowing the Fed to remain hawkish – remember the big picture beyond tightening – and NVDA earnings aftermath – no matter how poor compared to a year ago, the markets chose to salivate over exuberant forward guidance while AI is going to make more money to others such as AAPL and MSFT, and would take longer to become reality.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookIf 4,154 resistance doesn‘t hold, 4,165 comes next, and that would hold without 4,177 jeopardized. It‘s too early though for the bears to reassume initiative even if my late in the day call to close ideally below 4,136, materialized. The bears need to regroup here, and get ready for tomorrow‘s core PCE surprise of inflation remaining quite sticky actually.On one hand, 4,115 followed by 4,078 has to wait still – on the other hand, overcoming 4,225 seems unlikely at the moment, and would signify invalidation of the range breakout. Too early to call beyond today, but the steepness of this correction points to trouble overcoming 4,177 let alone 4,188.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 buyers weren‘t really present yesterday, and the session finally finished on a strong, one-sided bearish note with all four conditions of mine (linked to) met. Dr copper was simply right in foretelling a down day yesterday. The many bearish medium-term signs described in latest extensive analyses, are raising their heads. Aftermarket didn‘t bring any retracement attempt to speak of – instead, sellers retook initiative, and 4,154 turned into resistance. Also real assets confirm this is still a risk-off environment as illustrated by TLT jump higher. Last but not least, UK inflation data isn‘t an isolated occurence of persistent core figures – US stocks still have to tackle the Fed tightening with lengthy pause vs. easing disconnect, onset of a genuine recession in Q3, LEIs declining for 13 months in a row, shrinking M2, deposits outflow hampering commercial lending, approaching real estate downward path continuation while unemployment claims pick up and Treasury starts issuing fresh debt to replenish TGA. Hardly a bullish cocktail. Don‘t forget NVDA earnings and the highly likely disappointment not living up to the AI hype and chase. Quoting from yesterday‘s long analysis: (…) Big Tech is ignoring the glaring disconnect to TLT – these two usually go hand in hand, but GOOGL, MSFT and AAPL with NVDA are still holding up. Talking the last two, there is some short-term technical vulnerability (as in suspect series of latest daily candles) showing up, and I wonder how much more nosebleed for NVDA can come following its earnings tomorrow after the close. Today is shaping up on a risk-off note, reflecting the poor European manufacturing data that has already pushed many real assets towards my corrective targets. Meanwhile, the long-dated Treasuries outlook is going to change in the following weeks – the run higher will be though more muted than otherwise would have been thanks to the Fed no longer being the buyer, and Treasury General Account replenisment needs following debt ceiling resolution, which would work to suck some liquidity off the market place. Recession is to start in Q3, and the consumer is getting increasingly into hot water. With household debt over $17T, credit card debt not really retreating (revolving credit up 17% in Mar annualized), the stress is showing in XRT and recent earnings calls from WMT, TGT… leaving AMZN not immune either, methinks. Don‘t forget that the LEIs I mention so often, have been declining for 13 months in a row, and show no sign of turning. Fed isn‘t happy about the GDP, real estate or job market status as relates its larger inflation ight. Stock market sellers are to retake initiative once this rally runs its course. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook 4,154 is now resistance, ideally to hold on the closing basis. Dip buying is though to emerge first – bulls aren‘t going to give up without any intraday fight, even on no debt ceiling positive news. 4,136 breach followed by 4,115 are the key objectives, reaching which would take a while, and perhaps also Friday‘s core PCE coming in at least 0.3%. More banking sector, industrials, materials, retail and smallcaps weakness is essential. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold repelled the immediate danger of $1,930 and so did silver regarding $23.15. Next weeks would show whether these come into jeopardy again, or not – this week‘s lows are in. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 rejected further upside, and is ready for correction within this upswing – the correction characteristics would determine the path forward as hearing Bullard talk two more rate hikes wasn‘t something the market had discounted. 2y yield rose to 5.40% , and 10y is above the midpoint of its recent range at 3.72% - yet stocks are holding up so far, and especially tech, Big Tech is ignoring the glaring disconnect to TLT – these two usually go hand in hand, but GOOGL, MSFT and AAPL with NVDA are still holding up. Talking the last two, there is some short-term technical vulnerability (as in suspect series of latest daily candles) showing up, and I wonder how much more nosebleed for NVDA can come following its earnings tomorrow after the close.Today is shaping up on a risk-off note, reflecting the poor European manufacturing data that has already pushed many real assets towards my corrective targets. Meanwhile, the long-dated Treasuries outlook is going to change in the following weeks – the run higher will be though more muted than otherwise would have been thanks to the Fed no longer being the buyer, and Treasury General Account replenisment needs following debt ceiling resolution, which would work to suck some liquidity off the market place.Recession is to start in Q3, and the consumer is getting increasingly into hot water. With household debt over $17T, credit card debt not really retreating (revolving credit up 17% in Mar annualized), the stress is showing in XRT and recent earnings calls from WMT, TGT… leaving AMZN not immune either, methinks.Don‘t forget that the LEIs I mention so often, have been declining for 13 months in a row, and show no sign of turning. Fed isn‘t happy about the GDP, real estate or job market status as relates its larger inflation ight. Stock market sellers are to retake initiative once this rally runs its course.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,154 is the first stop, and the fact we‘re reaching it with barely a move higher in USD but accompanied by significant real asset declines, means to me it would be worthwhile to not rush and instead assess the degree of buyers‘ weakness. 4,136 followed by 4,115 might not be that far, considering this is happening without any scary debt ceiling headlines.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals have still ways to go, and my gold $1,930 and other silver and copper targets loom. USD at 103.30 would prove cheap, and its upswing is ready to continue, with the debt ceiling resolution probably not signifying selloff, but relief over „default averted“.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 breakout or fakeout? I was in favor of breakout and its retest Friday. Not even debt ceiling resolution stumble or Powell talking about not needing to raise rates too much given the commercial lending stress (tightening) or Yellen bringing up more consolidation ahead in the banking sector.Let‘s keep it technical, quoting Friday‘s analysis:(…) The key thing that changed, is that we‘re dealing with a breakout now – above both 4,188 and 4,209. Unconfirmed for now, so let‘s examine its odds to answer that „breakout or fakeout“ question.First, neither daily volume nor market breadth changes stand in the way of either ES or NDX.Seconds, bonds held up in the risk-on mode well, and the low HYG volume wasn‘t met with poor price action while yields rose.Third, XLI strongly refused the daily downswing, XLF pulled out a nice daily consolidation, and Russell 2000 as the greatest underperformer behind KRE, rose within its practically horizontal range.This makes me think that S&P 500 is likely to consolidate the breakout rather than come crashing down. Unless Fed speakers today „surprise“ with further insistence on no rate cuts any time soon (quotation marks are ironical as they wouldn‘t relent – both 3m and 10y yields registered strong increases yesterday, and Jun 25bp rate hike odds went up considerably) – that‘s the most probable factor to drive an ES breakout today apart from typical opex day volatility.Not even the heavily bought into tech and semiconductors flash warning signs for S&P 500 as the rotations yesterday have been shown to be strong, and this kind of performance doesn‘t usually disappear within a day. USD isn‘t standing in the way – earlier calls for 101 to hold, and greenback relief rally are working out fine, now over 103 and in need of consolidation after the reflexive „debt ceiling resolution“ (not yet, but the interim positive signs won‘t disappear today) rally.The extent of opex day volatility is the key variable today – together with the Fed speakers comments revealing what the broad rally yesterday was made of (strength of foundations and rotations). Odds are good for a no meaningful setback.The breakout will succeed even if I‘m looking for a bit more (shallow) weakness first. Tech and semiconductors continue doing well – a little consolidation with an improvement in (still divergent) Nasdaq breadth, resulting in making Big Tech stocks vulnerable to a brief pullback Monday or Tuesday. Value was hit, but not on high volume – the positive rotational tendencies beyond industrials, energy and financials at expense of defensives (utilities and staples) continued. The discretionaries to staples, financials to utilities, or stocks to long-dated Treasuries, all confirm the appetite (to last a few weeks more) to go higher following breaking the long S&P 500 range.The breakout retest though looks still undone to me, and it‘s due to the faltering strength of daily rotations Friday, incl. the above mentioned Big Tech. 4,188 should be still revisited next week – this is not yet the time of tech falling to force much, much lower prices and snowballing. More debt ceiling fears should be the catalyst, but I‘m looking for a weak entry into Monday even without dramatic headlines.After a successful retest of the breakout, in other words putting in a short-term bottom, stocks would continue higher – but this isn‘t the case of sky is the limit, whether Fed hikes in Jun or not.Unemployment claims would pick up, core inflation not decelerate fast enough, retail sales and bank lending would remain underwhelming, and yields would make a peak before heading lower again to reflect darkening economic prospects. It‘s only when they come down that they would clear the real estate market, which means that 2H 2023 is pointing down for both residential and commercial real estate.LEIs remain in steep decline mode, and after all data revesions are completed, it seems to be the case that recession is starting Jul, Aug or Sep – yes, that‘s my Q3 call. The Fed hasn‘t yet pivoted, and the 2-y to Fed funds rate spread is almost 1% now. Very clear signal from bonds that real economy is in trouble, which however doesn‘t stand in the way of stock market gains in the weeks to come.The downleg has only gotten delayed, and I have question marks whether 3,800 will be broken in the summer (and usually the turbulent month of Sep) – 3,865 seems a more conservative target, but the bulls improved their lot significantly as I acknowledged following Wednesday‘s financials move.How about next week‘s key data – what do they mean for markets?Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals were driven by the rate hiking reappraisals when Powell on Friday undid all the 25bp odds made by prior Fed speakers in the week. The correction isn‘t over for me, and targets stretched to the bearish side, are given in the caption.Crude OilCrude oil is out of the woods – no matter the upcoming recession, the May lows won‘t be broken. Slow grind higher accompanied by renewed good performance in oil stocks (in spite of solid dividends, had been lagging since stellar 2022), awaits beyond the weeks ahead.CopperCopper wouldn‘t be immune in the short term – data out of China are mixed, and commodities do and would suffer in the environment of weakening inflation, which for all the core resilience would continue weakening. So, bullish fundamentals of physical stockpiles would be clashing in the weeks ahead with slowing real economy before commodities pick up vibrantly again in 2H 2023.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 recovered from the opening setback reasonably fast, and had reached 4,188 before getting rejected. Temporarily rejected, and soon back on the way to 4,209. Stock market improvement was that broad to let me call still in 4,19xs for a serious breach of 4,209. Let‘s examine where stocks stand right now – as comparred to yesterday‘s extensive analysis, published before the opening bell:(…) it became clear early in the regular session that bears would be absent. … flipping the daily outlook decisively bullish, calling for a break above 4,177 already yesterday. Volume overall picked up sufficiently to repeat the daily bullish call for today in the European morning as well.… Rising volume in XLK, VTV, and good enough SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.Financials.Back when I took the medium-term bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant banks had fallen, CS was getting back on the radar screen, deposits outflows continued, and demand for the Fed emergency programs was rising. It was questionable whether KRE and XLF would stabilize.The incentives for deposit outflows were still present (Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term yields kept solidly above 5%, Fed balance sheet kept declining, M2 and margin debt shrinking while consumer inflation expectations went on surging). It took too long for FRC to fail – the odds of a sharp downside move were high in the prior two months, yet almost every market reaction to banking or disappointing data (on the correct recessionary call front), had been quite readily bought – and not even my correct call for hawkish May FOMC forced a lasting break of 4,078.That explain why I had been issuing so many daily bullish calls with upside targets met in all these weeks and days.Big picture, S&P 500 remains confined to a prolonged and tight trading range that took shape in the final days of Mar, and is still persisting after one failed breakout attempt – and my other risk-on metrics don‘t indicate a break higher out of their ranges either.Crucially, this is all happening while the real economy prospects keep darkening, from JOLTS to unemployment claims (again pinned as Mar/Apr uptrend start) to consumer confidence, to manufacturing, to bank lending standards, you name it. LEIs are still declining, volume retail sales are down so much more than value retail sales (indicating that companies are squeezing the consumer, hence XLP is picking up). Then, China growth data are as mixed as U.S. retail sales figures while markets keep expecting over 175bp cuts till 1H 2024 is over, which I doubt thoroughly.This means to me that the worst isn‘t over – not in terms of real economy deterioration, banking and the stock market. It merely indicates the upcoming stagflationary reality (subpar growth outdone by persistent, sticky inflation affecting markets there where it matters, in necessities of life, well beyond the owners‘ equivalent rent optics).Yet, several developments yesterday made me urgently reevaluate the medium-term bearish outlook – crucially the parameters of it being, remaining justified (beyond the fact of positive stock market returns not exactly correlating with plunging LEIs).First, KRE might not be in the mood of sliding too much more while XLF is reluctant to move even below May lows only – all on solid daily volume yesterday.Second, Russell 2000 is showing signs of life, and the IWM mid Mar lows are at risk of becoming distant – again on solid daily volume.Third, market breadth as measured by percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, improved a lot yesterday both in NDX and ES. Should we see more of that, rotations getting stronger, and leaving the 500-strong index less dependent on the Top 10 chiefly tech stocks, the buyers would rejoice.Fourth, this weaknening tech (and communications) leadership is underlined by defensives (utilities, staples) turning considerably more constructive, which is what financials seek to follow. Add in XLI refusing more weakness while XRT goes up, and things could get dangerous for the bears fast.The key thing that changed, is that we‘re dealing with a breakout now – above both 4,188 and 4,209. Unconfirmed for now, so let‘s examine its odds to answer that „breakout or fakeout“ question.First, neither daily volume nor market breadth changes stand in the way of either ES or NDX.Seconds, bonds held up in the risk-on mode well, and the low HYG volume wasn‘t met with poor price action while yields rose.Third, XLI strongly refused the daily downswing, XLF pulled out a nice daily consolidation, and Russell 2000 as the greatest underperformer behind KRE, rose within its practically horizontal range.This makes me think that S&P 500 is likely to consolidate the breakout rather than come crashing down. Unless Fed speakers today „surprise“ with further insistence on no rate cuts any time soon (quotation marks are ironical as they wouldn‘t relent – both 3m and 10y yields registered strong increases yesterday, and Jun 25bp rate hike odds went up considerably) – that‘s the most probable factor to drive an ES breakout today apart from typical opex day volatility.Not even the heavily bought into tech and semiconductors flash warning signs for S&P 500 as the rotations yesterday have been shown to be strong, and this kind of performance doesn‘t usually disappear within a day. USD isn‘t standing in the way – earlier calls for 101 to hold, and greenback relief rally are working out fine, now over 103 and in need of consolidation after the reflexive „debt ceiling resolution“ (not yet, but the interim positive signs won‘t disappear today) rally.The extent of opex day volatility is the key variable today – together with the Fed speakers comments revealing what the broad rally yesterday was made of (strength of foundations and rotations). Odds are good for a no meaningful setback.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookI‘m looking for 4,180s to definitely hold on any (Fed generated) pullback today. Muddle through in the high 4,210s is a probable possibility – the bulls appear in need of taking a daily breather, and sectoral with intermarket analysis would reveal the degree they remain in control. Simply put, only hammering stocks below 4,154 on a closing basis allows the bears to even the game (and that‘s highly unlikely to happen even on Monday).Percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages picked up sharply over the last two days. Quite some fuel appears left till it approaches spring highs, or as a minimum (more probable) takes out its red 200-day moving average.Credit MarketsBonds are delivering for stock market buyers – especially the junk ones doing this well yesterday when Fed fund rate odd for June went up to 5.50% cconsiderably vs. a day ago. Stocks are leading quality bonds, which is bullish risk-on assets.Yields aren‘t likely to sink the stock market now, tech can still be defying them, but nonetheless signals lower growth environment the real economy is moving into, with higher inflation and yields (10-y to close the year around 4.50% after all it seems).Crude OilReal assets may still suffer in the short term thanks to USD and yields, and nowhere it‘s better seen than in precious metals ($1,970 gold broken, but $23.15 silver still far off due to the inflationary reality – expectations, not the headline disinflation). Copper keeps confirming in the risk-on posture, much closer to $3.72 than $3.55. Crude oil grind higher would continue, and $74 should fall next week.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 put up only very limited resistance at 4,136, and it became clear early in the regular session that bears would be absent. Initially, HYG and XLI sputtered, and XLF was lagging behind KRE, but this and other fleeting signs of intraday weakness, I duly immediately called as flipping the daily outlook decisively bullish, calling for a break above 4,177 already yesterday. Volume overall picked up sufficiently to repeat the daily bullish call for today in the European morning as well.The housing data weren‘t poised to sink the markets, and copper with oil were highly indicative of that resolution early yesterday already. Rising volume in XLK, VTV, and good enough SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.Financials.Back when I took the medium-term bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant banks had fallen, CS was getting back on the radar screen, deposits outflows continued, and demand for the Fed emergency programs was rising. It was questionable whether KRE and XLF would stabilize.The incentives for deposit outflows were still present (Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term yields kept solidly above 5%, Fed balance sheet kept declining, M2 and margin debt shrinking while consumer inflation expectations went on surging). It took too long for FRC to fail – the odds of a sharp downside move were high in the prior two months, yet almost every market reaction to banking or disappointing data (on the correct recessionary call front), had been quite readily bought – and not even my correct call for hawkish May FOMC forced a lasting break of 4,078.That explain why I had been issuing so many daily bullish calls with upside targets met in all these weeks and days.Big picture, S&P 500 remains confined to a prolonged and tight trading range that took shape in the final days of Mar, and is still persisting after one failed breakout attempt – and my other risk-on metrics don‘t indicate a break higher out of their ranges either.Crucially, this is all happening while the real economy prospects keep darkening, from JOLTS to unemployment claims (again pinned as Mar/Apr uptrend start) to consumer confidence, to manufacturing, to bank lending standards, you name it. LEIs are still declining, volume retail sales are down so much more than value retail sales (indicating that companies are squeezing the consumer, hence XLP is picking up). Then, China growth data are as mixed as U.S. retail sales figures while markets keep expecting over 175bp cuts till 1H 2024 is over, which I doubt thoroughly.This means to me that the worst isn‘t over – not in terms of real economy deterioration, banking and the stock market. It merely indicates the upcoming stagflationary reality (subpar growth outdone by persistent, sticky inflation affecting markets there where it matters, in necessities of life, well beyond the owners‘ equivalent rent optics).Yet, several developments yesterday made me urgently reevaluate the medium-term bearish outlook – crucially the parameters of it being, remaining justified (beyond the fact of positive stock market returns not exactly correlating with plunging LEIs).First, KRE might not be in the mood of sliding too much more while XLF is reluctant to move even below May lows only – all on solid daily volume yesterday.Second, Russell 2000 is showing signs of life, and the IWM mid Mar lows are at risk of becoming distant – again on solid daily volume.Third, market breadth as measured by percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, improved a lot yesterday both in NDX and ES. Should we see more of that, rotations getting stronger, and leaving the 500-strong index less dependent on the Top 10 chiefly tech stocks, the buyers would rejoice.Fourth, this weaknening tech (and communications) leadership is underlined by defensives (utilities, staples) turning considerably more constructive, which is what financials seek to follow. Add in XLI refusing more weakness while XRT goes up, and things could get dangerous for the bears fast.If.If not just 4,177 or 4,188, but 4,209 (called for you back in Apr as the real resistance) get broken to the upside (considering this scenario, ignore the waning volume at range‘s tops while the range‘s bottoms get bought convincingly), proving the above described bullish turns to be more that gyrations within their own ranges and deteriorating macroeconomic dynamics.The „least“ of which being debt ceiling (positive noises slash resolution) headline sensitivity with additional risk-on fuel as USD hiding place gets a hit, and stocks get chased anew. The Fed though is in a different position than it was in 2011 – now it just can‘t turn around and provide a bid for Treasuries (hello TGA), which is why I‘m not looking for yields to retreat in the debt ceiling resolution aftermath the way they did 12 years ago.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe biggest danger for bears comes from broadening rotation out of (Big) Tech into value and smallcaps, respectively. I‘m not discounting this scenario as improbable – the rotation dynamics speaks for the bulls now as financials keep ignoring CRE that would come back to bite the regional banks.Credit MarketsRising yields haven‘t brought down stocks really, and corporate junk bonds aren‘t anyhow wildly outperforming. At best, they‘re peeking higher as much as inflation expectations do, merely reinforcing upcoming stagflationary reality. Sure, the word stagflation comes from stagnation, but I think there is no avoiding recession (Q3 arrival remains most likely).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday HYG reversal portended downside volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher. The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadthand unappealing sectoral overviewTech upswing invited selling interest, while value and especially Russell 2000 turned strongly south. ES though had been relatively resilient given both manufacturing and retail sales hits, and today‘s data in housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster. The figures are obviously more optimistic than they would have otherwise been if the market could clear itself by bringing in more supply, which isn‘t though a realistic expectation when mortgage rates have been locked low in a different era of 2020-2021.Similarly retail (WMT, TGT) earnings aren‘t truly concerning – they merely underline the weakening consumer, and more bleak expectations for Q2 figures. The same for real estate not being out of the woods.For now, the stock market advance remains concentrated in the top 10 (chiefly tech) stocks, and Wednesday‘s prospects aren‘t disastrous – with no overnight fall even if USD broke higher to 102.80, I‘m looking for another tight range muddle through day where 4,149 followed by 4,154 stand in the way, and a close clearly below 4,136 would be a nice bearish daily victory in this long lasting tight S&P 500 range. Watching today‘s rotations chiefly for clues.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.Credit MarketsRising yields haven‘t brought down stocks much, let alone tech with the ever deteriorating breadth there. Today will mark a pause in the risk-off stance, not a reversal higher to last.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 downswing refusal would prove temporary, and the pinched consumer retail sales data will keep serving as recessionary reminder. In this five part tweet series, I detailed why yesterday‘s bullish achievements aren‘t changing the bearish medium-term picture (more breathing room once this opex week is over) – in terms of the degree of positive economic surprises, weakness in sectoral overview with retreating financials and other typical bull market bellwethers. HD also disappointed, and the language used confirms more consumert weakness ahead. Then, there is the debt ceiling to be milked for what it‘s worth. Keep in mind this remarkable array of bearish factors.Let‘s dive into the individual markets with extra USD commentary.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 8 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookToday should play out on a gently risk-off note, bringing another close below 4,136, but without the necessary acceleration coming with the 4,0xx handles. 4,115 remains still hard to break, and requires more leadership from bonds such as when Fed speakers later today keep the focus on unended inflation fight and all that brings.This modest improvement won‘t be enough to power S&P 500 to 4,149 and beyond today, really not. Conversely, it would be erased shortly, and the advance-decline line with new highs new lows would hint at another false dawn within this long range.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 fulfilled my overnight target of 4,149 at least, and had been having issues extending gains before the manufacturing data release. That figure grossly underperformed, and together with Bostic remarks and acknowledgement of still tough times ahead in banking (cascading rate hikes impact), is to duly keep a lid on stocks, and send S&P 500 to close well below 4,136 today. See that for all the fleeting improvement in market breadth on Friday, the most robust metrics such as advance-decline volume and new highs new lows, continues having issues – and neither the advance decline-decline line is convincing (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). These technical factors will be increasingly more relevant this week when the (bearish) debt ceiling starts again taking center stage after a headlines-free today.Some company earnings thought follow.After correct predictions of TSLA, AAPL earnings (market impact), I was asked about WMT and TGT – on a company level, I of course expect WMT to do considerably better than TGT. Note though XRT weak chart posture, and how relatively well XLY is still doing. Therefore, I‘m looking for especially WMT beat on profits, less so on revenue (if volume sales are taken into account) and darkening guidance – these earnings won‘t send S&P 500 lower while TGT effect would be more neutral.As for HD, this one could be weaknest out of the three tickers mentioned, no matter how well XHB is doing. I‘m looking for the relative calm in real estate to go as it‘s impossible to the supply to be brought into the market when favorable mortgage rates had been locked years ago, and the short end of the curve is now disincentivizing the move.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 refused to decline below strong 4,115 support, and market breadth nuances together with crypto indicate that the buyers are to build on Friday‘s intraday reversal, and push through 4,136 into 4,149 at least. It‘s that value, semiconductors, financials and Russell 2000 held up relatively well during the second hald of Friday‘s session. If accompanied by HYG at least keeping pace (which is questionable on Monday), the buyers can push through 4,154.Fresh attack on 4,115 wouldn‘t be mounted easily in spite of the many signs portending it, Monday‘s Empire State manufacturing would likely feed into the narrative that the worst is over – in terms of economic contraction, earnings and banking sector with disinflation to supposedly rule now even in core data, which I have my doubts about though as LEIs keep still declining and the lull in real estate and CRE loans would prove elusive. I‘m not even bringing up the continued deposits flight and what it means for Fed emergency programs demand as covered amply on Friday:(…) PACW woes being as indicative of unsolved banking situation as the increased Fed loans to banks (over $90bn now, which is an increase of $10bn this week). That‘s what happens when the original incentive to withdraw deposits in search of better yields in T-Bills and money market funds, is still there – 3m yield after the two-day plunge is at 5.20% while the 6m is at 5.14%. This has a profound effect on commercial banks‘ ability to extend credit, the real economy‘s lifeblood, as commercial real estate remains in the wings. While we haven‘t seen a genuine earnings recession yet (the data thus far aren‘t wildly underperforming the downgraded Q1 expectation), we‘re in as a minimum for P/E contraction as LEIs keep pointing down, the Fed remains restrictive, and market leaders prefer to squeeze value sales while volume sales aren‘t exactly rising (i.e. the pie is not growing much) while doing share buybacks to boost profitability (EPS).Thus far any weakness outside of Big Tech was unable to force S&P 500 lower much – so, the question is what would make tech shake a little. As I wrote earlier, any straw can break the camel‘s back – it may or may not be a big one.Similarly the USD is in a vulnerable position, propped up by the debt ceiling drama slowly moving to center stage (next week some more). Holding above 101 key support breaking which can usher significant downside, the dollar is likely to rise solidly above 102, which would of course keep exerting pressure on real assets the way it did in precious metals and copper yesterday. Note that crypto had been indicatively weakening for quite a while already, so that sums up the intermarket case of what to expect in stocks in the weeks ahead.Yields went up on Friday, especially on the long end of the curve, USD continued its newly minted ascent, and the next attempt to bid Big Tech higher is ahead. I would be though looking for a meaningful undershoot in retail sales on Tuesday, especially in core turning even slightly negative. That would be of course as risk-off catalyst as much as Friday‘s consumer confidence was – revealing that we haven‘t reached the worst in the economic contraction by far, no matter how well housing data hold up Wednesday (and they this month would given the reprieve in rates).Individual markets‘ analysis with charts and extra commentary follows.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 8 of them.As Fed pause in June remains the base case even if rate hike is a bit too much underappreciated right now, the short end of the curve will continue levelling off while yields of Treasuries of longer than 10-year duration, would strive to rise even if faced with deteriorating economic prospects so as to reflect rising inflation expectations.The greatest disconnect certainly persists in that markets expect the Fed to cut rates significantly even if Powell is reluctant. I just don‘t see 175bp cuts till 1H 2024 is over, and no great rate moves this autumn either – fiscal policy is already loose enough, and had been holding up markets. Friday‘s consumer confidence served only to expect more and sooner Fed easing, no matter the beat in consumer long-term inflation expectations up to 3.3%.Yet, we‘ll be dealing with debt ceiling (sending USD up already as I told you), weaker commercial bank credit creation with sharply up bankruptcies that‘s bringing up credit crunch talk – and buy the dippers are already looking forward for the future discount no matter how the weakness in my key risk-on metrics progresses.Bond prices volatility is cooling off, but I‘m afraid the banking crisis isn‘t yet over, and the current reprieve would be erased.Gold, Silver and MinersSure that respite proved temporary, and precious metals aren‘t yet out of the woods even if silver improves next (rise above $24.40 is necessary for interim stabilization). The levels given in the chart should hold, especially in silver short-term, and this applies to the $2,000+ figure in gold during next week too.Crude OilCrude oil isn‘t likely to drop much more from here, no matter fresh recessionary data, which would be overpowered by an upcoming (Jun/Jul) OPEC+ new production cuts (if necessary).CopperToo weak rebound off $3.72, better look down to $3.55 if a solid grind lower on still restrictive Fed and progressively more deteriorating real economy develops and takes precious metals down below the nearest supports described.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 refused to decline below strong 4,115 support, and market breadth nuances together with crypto indicate that the buyers are to build on Friday‘s intraday reversal, and push through 4,136 into 4,149 at least. It‘s that value, semiconductors, financials and Russell 2000 held up relatively well during the second hald of Friday‘s session. If accompanied by HYG at least keeping pace (which is questionable on Monday), the buyers can push through 4,154.Fresh attack on 4,115 wouldn‘t be mounted easily in spite of the many signs portending it, Monday‘s Empire State manufacturing would likely feed into the narrative that the worst is over – in terms of economic contraction, earnings and banking sector with disinflation to supposedly rule now even in core data, which I have my doubts about though as LEIs keep still declining and the lull in real estate and CRE loans would prove elusive. I‘m not even bringing up the continued deposits flight and what it means for Fed emergency programs demand as covered amply on Friday:(…) PACW woes being as indicative of unsolved banking situation as the increased Fed loans to banks (over $90bn now, which is an increase of $10bn this week). That‘s what happens when the original incentive to withdraw deposits in search of better yields in T-Bills and money market funds, is still there – 3m yield after the two-day plunge is at 5.20% while the 6m is at 5.14%. This has a profound effect on commercial banks‘ ability to extend credit, the real economy‘s lifeblood, as commercial real estate remains in the wings. While we haven‘t seen a genuine earnings recession yet (the data thus far aren‘t wildly underperforming the downgraded Q1 expectation), we‘re in as a minimum for P/E contraction as LEIs keep pointing down, the Fed remains restrictive, and market leaders prefer to squeeze value sales while volume sales aren‘t exactly rising (i.e. the pie is not growing much) while doing share buybacks to boost profitability (EPS).Thus far any weakness outside of Big Tech was unable to force S&P 500 lower much – so, the question is what would make tech shake a little. As I wrote earlier, any straw can break the camel‘s back – it may or may not be a big one.Similarly the USD is in a vulnerable position, propped up by the debt ceiling drama slowly moving to center stage (next week some more). Holding above 101 key support breaking which can usher significant downside, the dollar is likely to rise solidly above 102, which would of course keep exerting pressure on real assets the way it did in precious metals and copper yesterday. Note that crypto had been indicatively weakening for quite a while already, so that sums up the intermarket case of what to expect in stocks in the weeks ahead.Yields went up on Friday, especially on the long end of the curve, USD continued its newly minted ascent, and the next attempt to bid Big Tech higher is ahead. I would be though looking for a meaningful undershoot in retail sales on Tuesday, especially in core turning even slightly negative. That would be of course as risk-off catalyst as much as Friday‘s consumer confidence was – revealing that we haven‘t reached the worst in the economic contraction by far, no matter how well housing data hold up Wednesday (and they this month would given the reprieve in rates).Individual markets‘ analysis with charts and extra commentary follows.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 8 of them.As Fed pause in June remains the base case even if rate hike is a bit too much underappreciated right now, the short end of the curve will continue levelling off while yields of Treasuries of longer than 10-year duration, would strive to rise even if faced with deteriorating economic prospects so as to reflect rising inflation expectations.The greatest disconnect certainly persists in that markets expect the Fed to cut rates significantly even if Powell is reluctant. I just don‘t see 175bp cuts till 1H 2024 is over, and no great rate moves this autumn either – fiscal policy is already loose enough, and had been holding up markets. Friday‘s consumer confidence served only to expect more and sooner Fed easing, no matter the beat in consumer long-term inflation expectations up to 3.3%.Yet, we‘ll be dealing with debt ceiling (sending USD up already as I told you), weaker commercial bank credit creation with sharply up bankruptcies that‘s bringing up credit crunch talk – and buy the dippers are already looking forward for the future discount no matter how the weakness in my key risk-on metrics progresses.Bond prices volatility is cooling off, but I‘m afraid the banking crisis isn‘t yet over, and the current reprieve would be erased.Gold, Silver and MinersSure that respite proved temporary, and precious metals aren‘t yet out of the woods even if silver improves next (rise above $24.40 is necessary for interim stabilization). The levels given in the chart should hold, especially in silver short-term, and this applies to the $2,000+ figure in gold during next week too.Crude OilCrude oil isn‘t likely to drop much more from here, no matter fresh recessionary data, which would be overpowered by an upcoming (Jun/Jul) OPEC+ new production cuts (if necessary).CopperToo weak rebound off $3.72, better look down to $3.55 if a solid grind lower on still restrictive Fed and progressively more deteriorating real economy develops and takes precious metals down below the nearest supports described.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 clear bearish progress didn‘t last in spite of PACW woes being as indicative of unsolved banking situation as the increased Fed loans to banks (over $90bn now, which is an increase of $10bn this week). That‘s what happens when the original incentive to withdraw deposits in search of better yields in T-Bills and money market funds, is still there – 3m yield after the two-day plunge is at 5.20% while the 6m is at 5.14%. This has a profound effect on commercial banks‘ ability to extend credit, the real economy‘s lifeblood, as commercial real estate remains in the wings. While we haven‘t seen a genuine earnings recession yet (the data thus far aren‘t wildly underperforming the downgraded Q1 expectation), we‘re in as a minimum for P/E contraction as LEIs keep pointing down, the Fed remains restrictive, and market leaders prefer to squeeze value sales while volume sales aren‘t exactly rising (i.e. the pie is not growing much) while doing share buybacks to boost profitability (EPS).Thus far any weakness outside of Big Tech was unable to force S&P 500 lower much – so, the question is what would make tech shake a little. As I wrote earlier, any straw can break the camel‘s back – it may or may not be a big one.Similarly the USD is in a vulnerable position, propped up by the debt ceiling drama slowly moving to center stage (next week some more). Holding above 101 key support breaking which can usher significant downside, the dollar is likely to rise solidly above 102, which would of course keep exerting pressure on real assets the way it did in precious metals and copper yesterday. Note that crypto had been indicatively weakening for quite a while already, so that sums up the intermarket case of what to expect in stocks in the weeks ahead.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is not even a miserable „improvement“ in market breadth – that statement awaits for after the close today. Just how much upside can the buyers still squeeze (4,188 or higher), that‘s the key question.Pretty humbling chart showing the waning power of this bear market rally. As a minimum, a serious drop for all the technical and fundamental reasons awaits before we move into a good Q4 2023 performance time.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 with yields gyrated wildly on celebrating CPI and ignoring sticky core CPI yesterday, and the buyers won in the end as my four conditions weren't met, yet market breadth watchers can‘t speak about confirmations really.Well before the weak bullish momentum from yesterday petered out, I called for the bears to start moving, and they did. BoE rate hike – even if expected, illustrated the universal problem of a not disinflating fast enough core inflation.Let‘s bring up my Monday‘s macroeconomic predictions for today:(…) Thursday‘s PPI would probably underwhelm, and come only a bit above zero, and the core PPI as well. Unemployment claims at 250K seem as a correct expectationPPI came in line with my expectations while unemployment data were of a more recessionary flavor – and that‘s positive for the sellers. Keeping the big picture in mind, this is still the calm period even if we break below 4,115 soon. Hello PACW – the daily outlook is sure bearish.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSee that miserable „improvement“ in market breadth? Each time the buyers come back and win the day, they end up weaker. Talk of a Pyrrhic victory.As I‘ve been always saying, markets are most vulnerable at their narrowest, and that‘s where they are now. The rubber band is very stretched, and would snap back in the opposite (that‘s bearish) direction.While I had been often talking tech since Dec as one of the best sectors to be in, I had been highlighting value and Russell 2000 weakness – the degree of underperformance is obvious.4,150 is merely a first step - 4,136 followed by 4,128 – that‘s the true objective for today. Any time of the bears‘ choosing (properly said, strength on a strong catalyst such as banking fears), it‘s 4,115 and then 4,078 breaks that usher in increasing acceleration.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 and especially bonds closed on a cautious basis yesterday, clearly positioned for a hawkish surprise in the run up to the CPI release. While headline delivered solidly on disinflation expectations, core didn‘t do so really.The key move that‘s set to overpower the bears as a bare minimum for today, is the reversal in tightening odds, even if for Jun only. The jubilation is set to prevail today. Right or wrong, the Fed is being forced by markets to back off, and as a side effect that takes some heat off the continued deposits flight when T-Bill rates go down.The behavior of the short end of the curve, is key for today (and will be reflected in USD) – and I‘ll be foremost commenting on the intraday moves live on Twitter, including the opening dip – this is one of such days when I also open today‘s analysis for free.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookWith odds of a day in the black this high, it would be key to see how KRE, XLF, XLB and XLI with IWM kick in again, plus the total volume. Bears can‘t think about 4,136, and low 4,150s close would be a huge and unexpected success.Rather, have your eyes on 4,177 followed by the key 4,188 level – and of course presence or absence of market breadth relative improvements. Again, the short end of the curve – with focus on 3m foremost – holds the key.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals would be the first canary (together with USD) pointing to any significant reversal of Fed tightening bets. Are they done, are they not – this is where it would show up first. Not in copper that still has to keep above $3.78 first, and odds are it would following today – and the same goes for crude oil reclaiming $73.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 day of indecision lends more support to the bearish case, and the sellers are likely to appear with more force and somewhat better success today. The weak seasonality together with hawkish Fed bets (3m T-Bill made a new high at 5.31% now), will keep exerting pressure on the banks and their deposits situation).Today‘s outlook is bearish, pointing to a break below 4,136 on a closing basis – and the countdown to recession keeping a lid on risk-on metrics (cyclicals, smallcaps) is on. Even crypto joined, which is a good sign no matter daily improvement in Nasdaq market breadth.Depending on the strength of pre CPI positioning – my detailed prognosis for all of this week‘s macroeconomic data can be found in yesterday‘s extensive article - the bears can think about 4,128 (quite minor support) and crucially 4,115. Choppy day with a bearish bias is what‘s most likely ahead as tomorrow‘s hotter than expected inflation data would spur stock market selloff.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookPoor moves in KRE, XLF, XLB and XLI while tech including semiconductors continues underpinning the markets, don‘t bode well for good S&P 500 returns on the long side. Following the break of 4,039, the selloff would accelerate, but we‘re still long way from that figure. The preconditions are however in place, and crypto with banking are but the only indications.4,078 break is the ultimate bearish objective to give them the clear upper hand (midweek?), and start ushering passive indexing readjustments aka broader synchronized selling.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 took advantage of Thursday‘s technicals, rode AAPL coattails, and shook off positive NFPs while ignoring prior one‘s downward revision. The weak internals though haven‘t changed – it‘s about where this weaker short squeeze (weaker than the preceding one) runs out.Out of these four levels given, I consider the area up to 4,188 as most realistic (followed by 4,209 – and that‘s true unless market breadth takes a dramatic turn for the better – not what I view as a viable scenario.Similar chart for S&P 500 isn‘t as badly looking, but also contains a bearish divergence – one that has long been in the making. This run higher from Oct lows has been losing breath for months.And little wonder, given that the key banking (and credit) situation hasn‘t changed with respect to deposits and T-Bill rates – and there is no prospect of these drivers to go away. The Fed is still raising rates (Jun is a live month) and shrinking its balance sheet while the greatest disconnect (between what Powell says and what the bond market demands and expects would do, which is at least 3 or rather 4 rate cuts as early as Sep), TGA is too low, and the Treasury needs to roll over $7T of debt this year alone.LEIs are still pointing lower – don‘t be misled by the false dawn in PMIs, real estate, or the relatively resilient job market and corporate earnings. For all the continuing disinflation, the progress in core inflation isn‘t good enough to justify declaring victory and going home – Powell had been clearly saying. Sustainable stock market bottom simply aren‘t made when LEIs are still declining or when the Fed is staying the tightening course with all that means for banking profitability.The real question is not if we have a soft landing (shallow and short recession), but how long and deep is the recession going to actually be. As for its arrival, I‘m sticking to Q3 2023. Yield curve is still inverted, meaning banks can‘t make easily money (short-term liabilities while long-term assets – and this differential is inverted), therefore on top of the easy money depositors can make in T-Bills or money market funds, KRE and XLF don‘t face an easy ride in the weeks and months ahead as deposits are declining in banks both big and small, yet the megabanks have better ability to withstand the stress (the stress of high short-term yields). And then there is commercial real estate that will keep on declining still deeper, and regionals are especially exposed.The Fed will find little reason to relent in its restrictive stance with Wednesday‘s CPI report – I think the yearly headline figure would come at 5.1% vs. 5.0% expected, but the core one would surprise to the upside (at possibly even 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected).Thursday‘s PPI would probably underwhelm, and come only a bit above zero, and the core PPI as well. Unemployment claims at 250K seem as a correct expectation, but Friday‘s consumer confidence can easily come at 64. If I had to pick one day when the stock market sellers would arrive most meaningfully, it would be Wednesday thanks to the lagging CPI indicator.And what would that do to Treasury yields? Big picture, after reaching a generational top in summer 2020, the great bond bull market that started in the early 1980s, is over – yields have broken to the upside and we‘re in a secular bond bear market now, but I think this year would still mark consolidation and not a non-stop spurt to higher yields resuming – the 10-y (currently at 3.43%) has good odds of closing the year at 3.30%. Once the Fed stops raising rates and pauses, the deterioration in economic prospects would would put a floor beneath Treasuries (and the high yields on the short end would retreat a bit, making for a more usual shape of the yield curve).Simply put, we‘re living in a decade of generally rising rates, and commodities and precious metals supercycles that are merely getting started. In early Dec 2022, I covered some of the fine opportunities identified.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 6 of them.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookWhile tech is thanks to Big Tech rising, mounting signs of narrowing breadth elsewhere, would overpower S&P 500 as much as the weak seasonality of „Sell in May and go away“. No matter whether stocks remain in the 4,1xx or make it to the 4,2xx, the air is thinning up there, and key risk-on sectors haven‘t thus far demonstrated more than a „compulsory“ rebound off their respective Thursday‘s local supports reached.4,078 break is the ultimate bearish objective to give them the clear upper hand (midweek?), and start ushering passive indexing readjustments aka broader synchronized selling.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued the real FOMC move, which points down as befits tightening into slowing economy on simultaneous proclamations of strong banks. Short end of the yield curve didn‘t really budge yesterday, and the only factor beyond my AAPL earnings expectation allowing me to call for a modestly bullish Friday, was of technical nature.Selling in bonds was slowly evaporating, and several key sectors I like to watch in connection with the 500-strong index, were nearing their logical supports without either showing willingness to break them. Bears won‘t have an easy day as the bearish implications of strong non-farm payrolls data are likely to be downplayed in favor of celebration that this lagging job market indicator doesn‘t show recession yet – and it‘s only USD and precious metals that started to notice.Today‘s key level of distinguishing the bearish and bullish bias in stocks, is 4,128. It doesn‘t represent strong resistance, but would hint at where the unfolding Powell doubters‘ rally would reach.In celebration of a great week, I‘m opening today‘s analysis to everyone.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBears aren‘t having the upper hand today – the name of the game is whether 4,128 can be defended, or not. I‘m not counting with a close much below 4,115 today – there is still a lot of pent up bottom buying demand. As said, banking panic can‘t rule every day.Credit MarketsThe risk-off posture wouldn‘t last through today – bonds are to confirm the unfolding upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are to feel the heat with delay, last but not least through no fresh banking headlines, and money inflows into stocks (yes, that FOMO dip buying).Crude OilCrude oil bottom pickers are here, but the move higher over the next week, would still be a crawl and not a jump. $75 wouldn‘t be conquered fast or easily.CopperCopper is holding up well actually – and for all the China activity data shows that the bets against Powell, the bets on the Fed getting forced to ease, are strong.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 followed my path into the FOMC announcement (spike) and conference (ultimately selloff), no matter how opaque the statements had been up till it became clear that June is actually, really a live month for rate hikes too. The odds assigned are enough to cause turmoil, and crucially invalidate the notion of a dovish hike, pause, pivot, upcoming rate cuts as early as Sep and similar.I hope you took advantage of extensive live coverage on Twitter – let me pick only two highlights, first for betting on the hawkish message ultimately coming through, and then the key confirmation from most risk-on metrics that got too extended when Powell was talking from both sides of his mouth. Heavy selling stuck into the early aftermarket – and the Fed defying trades were in vogue European morning – this is what the bears are after.4,128 is the key „point of control“ for today (and AAPL isn‘t likely to pull the rug from under the buyers when its earnings are announced after the close today) – and 4,095 is the bearish objective for either today or the nearest future.Banking headlines have sure helped this morning as well (no, insuring all deposits wouldn‘t solve small banks – and I commented on the T-Bills idea efficiency yesterday alrealy), and the unemployment claims paint a job market picture of relative strength still (layoffs well below figures characteristic of earlier recessions / run ups to recession). ECB in the meantime went with 25bp only, and takes the heat off USD for a while (i.e. letting it to crawl back towards 102 at least, all without any debt ceiling drama).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookVery good progress the bears made, and I‘m looking for cyclicals to be leading to the downside. More banking headlines are to come, and more tightening and balance sheet shrinking effects have to cascade through the system. The inevitable break of 4,095 (to be followed by 4,078) would of course require improvements in the below shown market breadth snippet – no panic in the markets just yet, there are still doubters of the Fed keeping its restrictive stance no matter what the short end of the curve vs. Fed funds rate comparison (stop now!) says.Powell ain‘t stopping still, June FOMC run up would be played through verbal tightening masterfully whether any hike comes or not, mark my words.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 suffered on more bad banking news, but the bears couldn‘t keep the selling going – I correctly didn‘t trust bonds to send ES through 4,115. Overall, the yield curve reflected renewed Fed easing calls yesterday – and stocks attempted and attempt to front run the Fed pause notion as much as precious metals love banking woes and declining yields combined with more recessionary signs.Take only the USD gyrations mirroring those in the bond market. All are ultimately a bet on Fed policy stance, but I continue to think we would get 25bp hike, and no promise (really no promise) of a pause or anything that would make any Fed rate cutting a distinct more than possible certainty in the near future (by autumn, in autumn).Of course, it doesn‘t help the greenback that ECB is ready to hike 50bp still, but a good debt ceiling showdown till risk-off rears its head very properly again, is in the cards still. See for yourselves the TGA drawdowns of late...I‘ll be covering the run up to the Fed decision and analyze it live for you on Twitter and Telegram as always, stay tuned for the latest!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookLatest employment data allow the Fed to maintain hawkish stance, and the only question is how much the bulls would try to convince everyone that the sky is clear on any 4,188 resistance break – and whether more banking news (it‘s impossible to viably compete with money market funds through paying out depositors better rates) hits before they muster the strength and overcome ever poorer market breadth metrics.4,115 break which I ruled out yesterday, is out of the question unless Powell is very clear today during the conference.Credit MarketsNo risk-on here in the least– I doubt HYG would be able to make a solid comeback today. The risks are heavily skewed to the downside (risk-off) even if 25bp hike is virtually baked into the cake – look at oil and copper illustrating the subpar growth case...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 short squeeze attempt ran into a brick wall in the second half of the regular session as narrow market leadership took its toll on the high betas – industrials, materials and Russell 2000 felt the heat (unable to keep intraday gains) as tech played the stock market safe haven role.Crucially, not even relatively flat S&P 500 showing could prevent key market breadth metrics from further deteriorating. As I say, markets are most vulnerable at their narrowest, and this is definitely such a case – after making it almost to my 4,209 target yesterday, the (fundamental, realistic) clouds are darkening with the surprise RBA rate hike earlier today (elephant in the room is of course Japan with its own inflation figures). The Fed won‘t be as dovish as the markets expect, and that‘s an understatement – higher yields are already helping USD over 102.S&P 500 is gearing up for a cautious session today – one of positioning for tomorrow‘s FOMC already. Rather than the key levels specified (4,136 – low 4,150s – 4,177 – 4,188), it‘s about sectoral and intermarket performance (today) and risk-off clues that I‘m looking for manifesting earliest in silver, copper and perhaps also oil (these tomorrow).Quoting latest extensive analysis to illustrate how premature it is to celebrate end of banking crisis with FRC:(…) The elephant in the room is continued deposits outflow – and it doesn‘t end with FRC no matter how much KRE and XLF rejoice. Fed is still raising rates, Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet, and the Treasury needs to roll over almost $7T in debt this year alone (and some $3T next year). Inflation, core components especially, aren‘t declining nearly fast enough, personal income is up, job market in spite of all the increase in unemployment claims still quite hot – summing up, the Fed has no reason to pivot.Victory can‘t be declared, oil prices have bottomed, and will continue adding to headline inflation and will work to sink consumer confidence. Credit card usage is up, gasoline prices are up, and the market expectation for Sep 2023 rate cuts is at odds with everything Powell said, and what other officials are hinting add. Remember, the Fed‘s intention is to slowly take rates restrictive, and keep them there long – long enough without first hiking excessively and too fast (in the hopes of avoiding triggering recession, the thinking goes) – it is so no matter how much the bond market craves the end of tightening and rate cutting.The bulls‘ undoing would come from waning liquidity inflows, VIX bottoming a tad below 15, bond market volatility picking up again, weak market breadth, narrow rotations and overall sectoral vulnerability (have a look at precarious industrials – and these are supposed to lead early in bull runs).The rising temperature in bonds across the yield curve doesn‘t bode well for the stock market, for risk-on really.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAfter 4,209 rejection, stocks must refuse to run to 4,188 today, and ideally close below, well below 4,177. As with the proverbial straw breaking the camel‘s back, I‘m afraid we have to wait for realization that the Fed is really hawkish (conference time), and enjoy a good second look at the lowered bar (with guidance) AAPL would beat. In the meantime, JOLTS would highlight further weakness ahead in the job market. Hello, recession.See the plunging market breadth indicators already (previous chart), and here the rejection even at the relative level of stocks trying to trade above their 50-day moving average.Gold, Silver and MinersThis is still relatively sideways, but tougher times for precious metals and commodities would come on the hawkish Fed recognition (applicable to copper and oil as well).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued the short squeeze, more than vindicating my call for no setback Friday. Market breadth and internal strength isn‘t though that positive – yet markets are celebrating as if the banking crisis was over, as if the Fed pivoted, or as if Big Tech earnings were to lend similar resilience to other industries‘ results. Somehow, the negative UPS forward guidance has been quickly lost as well.The elephant in the room is continued deposits outflow – and it doesn‘t end with FRC no matter how much KRE and XLF rejoice. Fed is still raising rates, Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet, and the Treasury needs to roll over almost $7T in debt this year alone (and some $3T next year). Inflation, core components especially, aren‘t declining nearly fast enough, personal income is up, job market in spite of all the increase in unemployment claims still quite hot – summing up, the Fed has no reason to pivot.Victory can‘t be declared, oil prices have bottomed, and will continue adding to headline inflation and will work to sink consumer confidence. Credit card usage is up, gasoline prices are up, and the market expectation for Sep 2023 rate cuts is at odds with everything Powell said, and what other officials are hinting add. Remember, the Fed‘s intention is to slowly take rates restrictive, and keep them there long – long enough without first hiking excessively and too fast (in the hopes of avoiding triggering recession, the thinking goes) – it is so no matter how much the bond market craves the end of tightening and rate cutting.The current inflows into passive investing, the approaching debt ceiling, the Treasury General Account in need of replenishment will serve to prove corporate earnings undue optimism with respect to Q2. For now, the Fed would continue being restrictive – the GDP wasn‘t that dismal as much had to do with declining private inventories and not consumption per se.Now, the Fed still relatively easily can be restrictive and keep Fed funds rate elevated, even if that is an incentive for deposits outflow and its liquidity programs in support of the banking system expansion. It can be viewed as a protostep ultimately leading to yield curve control, but we aren‘t there yet. The Fed would have a harder time being restrictive when the economy finally rolls over into recession (and it will – LEIs, double inverted yield curve, tightening bank lending standards etc) don‘t lie. Budget deficit would increase, default swaps are rising already, tax revenues are down – and expenses of all kinds would of course go up.As for earnings, AAPL won‘t sink the markets either – the META, AMZN string of unabated bullishness called, won‘t see the rug pulled on AAPL.The bulls‘ undoing would come from waning liquidity inflows, VIX bottoming a tad below 15, bond market volatility picking up again, weak market breadth, narrow rotations and overall sectoral vulnerability (have a look at precarious industrials – and these are supposed to lead early in bull runs).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookHello 4,188 or even 4,209 (weak resistance to convince more buyers of a bull market) – market breadth though keeps sending warning signs as this short squeeze rally would meet hawkish Fed, which it isn‘t ready for. The bears lost the immediate upper hand, and prices aren‘t likely to come down too easily early in the week – so no 4,115, or 4,136 too soon. The upswing has to exhaust itself first.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 daily bullish call worked better than expected, and the road from META till AMZN earnings was indeed free from from bearish setbacks. Neither AMZN earnings aftermath did sink stocks, and the following call has also turned out true – the consolidation expected earlier in the European session and well before core PCE data announcement materialized as well.France data on inflation and consumer strength though paint a worrying picture down the road, and that would force reappraisals of Fed tightening ultimately in the States too. My call for persistent and sticky (stickier than the central bank would be comfortable with) core inflation did also come to fruition, and for all the stock buybacks lifting up shares, would catch up with the stock market – and USD agrees.I‘m totally happy that you‘ve been benefiting in these times, no matter what – thanks for all the client success stories you continuously tell me!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Credit MarketsThis isn‘t a risk-on turn to trust, and quality debt instruments are to keep doing better than junk corporate bonds over the coming weeks. Poor market breadth wouldn‘t lift stocks and sort itself out along the way – the tech behemoths would once again find themselves leading the charge when much of the troops refuse to advance. We‘re still away from that moment though.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears followed through during much of yesterday‘s session – and bonds broadly supported that downswing. Good META earnings completed the intraday reversal in the power hour, and that is to keep more than a lid on selling attempts today as we‘re getting AMZN earnings after the close – I expect the giant won‘t thow spanner into the stock market works.S&P 500 buyers have former support of 4,115 in their sights, and odds are they would get there before any downswing continuation. Core PCE data proving elevated, not retreating inflation – in line with the view from other economies – is to be ignored for a while as much as unemployment claims not painting a disastrous recessionary picture. Either way, 25bp hike next week is all but guaranteed, and markets will have to face (the disappointment of the reality that) the Fed won‘t just relent and give in to rate cut demands. Stocks would though ignore that today.More thoughts are covered in the individual chart sections, and that includes bond market perspectives.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,115 were broken as prices slid through 4,136 as a knife through hot butter. 4,078 got next in the crosshairs really fast, but the sellers weren‘t yet strong enough to break it (that power hour setback). This target has to wait for a fresh disappointment – one that isn‘t likely to come this week, would be a very safe assessment. Next week getting ready for FOMC and non-farm payrolls would through have much greater odds of accomplishing these objectives.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears finally did a good job – FRC deposits situation, fresh manufacturing and consumer confidence worked magic. Bonds broadly agreed, and the risk-off day was characterized by precious metals resilience (cryptos did well yesterday – and are doing OK on the same banking theme today as well). Of course, any quick look at KRE or XLF shows that not even Fed tightening and balance sheet shrinking can turn around the dollar when faced with more action requirements to stabilize the still ongoing outflow of deposits.The macro themes continue to be shrinking liquidity exacerbated by TGA situation, still declining LEIs, earnings and job market issues closer to the beginning than the ned (that‘s the case of labor), real estate respite to give, inverted yield curve and continued discrepancy between hawkish Fed pronouncements and markets betting considerably on rate cuts later this year.Not even the better than expected MSFT earnings and GOOGL more or less in line with the significantly downgraded expectations managed to turn around stocks more than a little aftermarket. The bears continue having the medium term advantage as E gets scrutinized with P/E consequences.It‘s great to keep receiving happy news from satisfied clients that did capitalize on all the behind the scenes work in taking on this bear market rally. Thank you for all the praise over email, on Twitter, on Telegram – and let me announce 7-day free trial valid for both premium publications to those simply mailing me first, and then deciding whether to join any premium services.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Crude OilCrude oil broke through the $77.50 support as I looked for it to do early Friday – quoting the relevant premium analysis „I‘m looking for dialing back of the recent optimism in precious metals and commodities, for oil at $77.50 ultimately not holding (check that next week) while copper breaks below $4“.CopperCopper chart is short-term concerning to the real asset bulls of course – again quoting premium analysis, this time yesterday‘s one „copper moved to my low $3.90s target already. There is great potential for more risk-off moves – moves the likes of which goid does withstand best (relatively speaking).“ Now, it‘s about either holding $3.78 or going to $3.72.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Monday, S&P 500 bulls managed to come back twice intraday, but I‘m afraid they‘re scraping the barrel. Tech earnings are ahead, UBS negatively surprised in the European morning, and the bulls may just not pull another rabbit out their hats next.Before diving into the charts with respective market commentaries, let‘s bring up the macro, fundamental and technical case for a meaningful S&P 500 decline:(…) the false dawn in manufacturing (and services) PMIs (similar to real estate) didn‘t spur enough Fed tightening bets. Even if oil corrected to my $77.50 Friday, that‘s though not enough to support all out rebound in PMIs unless the dollar agrees, and manufacturing would turn lower again over the coming 2+ months as LEIs continue declining for 12 months in a row and counting.Even if there is calm in the banking sector, the Fed is set to not only raise by 25bp in May, but also to continue shrinking its balance sheet. Meanwhile, commercial banks experience continued deposits outflow, AAPL has entered with its account offering of over 4%, and fresh credit creation is hampered, adding to liquidity and M2 woes as much as Treasury having to turn around and start replenishing its General Account at the Fed soon.For now, the relative calm allowing for tired S&P 500 upswing continuation, goes on as bears keep fumbling intraday on Monday too. The buyers are though running on borrowed time, and the downside remains greater than the upside – not only positive seasonality would be gone, but monetary policy won‘t really change in 2023 no matter how many rate cuts are priced into the bond market. Debt ceiling won‘t be resolved too quickly either – it‘ll still turn into a drama.While earnings aren‘t so far outdoing the dialed back expectations on the downside (-6.2% decline this quarter is on track), housing lull is set to go, the job market‘s forward looking indicators are on a solidly deteriorating track already, and core inflation is to remain sticky – not allowing for jubilation or Fed victory declaration (Powell conference will surprise next week).Meanwhile, the ever narrowing market leadership (one tenth of the S&P 500 stocks explaining around 90% of returns this year – market breadth I took on amply in the extensive analysis one week ago), reminds me of late 2021 topping process, and underlines that markets are most vulnerable when the leadership is narrow (hello AAPL and company).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,136 followed by 4,115 remain the key bearish objectives (in need of some tech earnings catalyst). Low 4,150s represent the midpoint of a trading range, but not breaking 4,188 (4,209 then) has the power to deal with non-confirmations and flip the medium-term outlook bullish. Much greater downside than upside risks simply, that‘s my conclusion.Credit MarketsAnother HYG spurt into the closing bell, but I‘m afraid it wouldn‘t be easy to extend gains in a risk-on way today really. Caution, still caution as TLT is to outperform on the upside.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears lost gained ground early in the Friday‘s session – the false dawn in manufacturing (and services) PMIs (similar to real estate) didn‘t spur enough Fed tightening bets. Even if oil corrected to my $77.50 Friday, that‘s though not enough to support all out rebound in PMIs unless the dollar agrees, and manufacturing would turn lower again over the coming 2+ months as LEIs continue declining for 12 months in a row and counting.Even if there is calm in the banking sector, the Fed is set to not only raise by 25bp in May, but also to continue shrinking its balance sheet. Meanwhile, commercial banks experience continued deposits outflow, AAPL has entered with its account offering of over 4%, and fresh credit creation is hampered, adding to liquidity and M2 woes as much as Treasury having to turn around and start replenishing its General Account at the Fed soon.For now, the relative calm allowing for tired S&P 500 upswing continuation, goes on as bears keep fumbling intraday on Monday too. The buyers are though running on borrowed time, and the downside remains greater than the upside – not only positive seasonality would be gone, but monetary policy won‘t really change in 2023 no matter how many rate cuts are priced into the bond market. Debt ceiling won‘t be resolved too quickly either – it‘ll still turn into a drama.While earnings aren‘t so far outdoing the dialed back expectations on the downside (-6.2% decline this quarter is on track), housing lull is set to go, the job market‘s forward looking indicators are on a solidly deteriorating track already, and core inflation is to remain sticky – not allowing for jubilation or Fed victory declaration (Powell conference will surprise next week).Meanwhile, the ever narrowing market leadership (one tenth of the S&P 500 stocks explaining around 90% of returns this year – market breadth I took on amply in the extensive analysis one week ago), reminds me of late 2021 topping process, and underlines that markets are most vulnerable when the leadership is narrow (hello AAPL and company).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookIn the very short-term, this looks like downswing rejection – the best the bear could do Friday, was a draw. Not a break below 4,136, but coming back to the midpoint of 4,115 and 4,188. When there is no follow through selling (and when even on reasons good enough it gets rejected as if the market had no fear of recession), the buyers can continue grinding higher before meeting resistance first at 4,188, and then 4,209.Market breadth wouldn‘t though miraculously improve on such an upswing – the non-confirmations and red flags from bonds and smallcaps, would remain – no matter how great tech overall would continue doing.As stated on Friday, for all the selling kicking in in NVDA and AAPL, this isn‘t yet enough – and TSLA is likely to retrace a modest part of its post earnings decline.. I‘m waiting for a green light from XLF, XLI and XLB, which should start following XLC and XLU lower – we aren‘t yet there at this maximum bearish constellation, and following botched Friday and today, fresh earnings catalyst (many key companies reporting this week including MA) or hawkish Fed pronouncements conficting market‘s dovish turn perceptions (absent for now as it‘s pre FOMC), is required.A picture speaks a thousand words - the prime candidate for rolling over in the tech behemoths.Credit MarketsThe HYG run higher into the closing bell, is the most concerning element of Friday‘s session – risk-off whiffs that are intraday rejected, haven‘t yet posed lasting obstacle to the buyers. That would change over the coming weeks with deteriorating economic data and stubborn inflation figures.Gold, Silver and MinersAs I wrote in Friday‘s premium analysis, I was looking for dialing back of the recent optimism in precious metals and commodities, for oil at $77.50 ultimately not holding (check that next week) while copper breaks below $4. Of course the prior local lows in this correction for both gold and silver would still more likely than not give (it‘s still below $1,970 and $24.10 respectively), but don‘t bet the farm on that thanks to the dillydallying dollar. The approaching recessionary data together with still tight Fed, would hurt – and neither USD, nor bonds have yet properly noticed.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

This time, S&P 500 bears couldn‘t close the bearish opening gap, and on deteriorating market breadth hitting tech and value alike, ES closed at my 4,150s midpoint of the no-man‘s land. No matter how tiring the back and forth with all the traps, the big picture is clear – either a convincing break of 4,209, or 4,115 to paint the short-term outlook bullish or bearish.And I maintain the call that the buyers are getting too tired, too extended here – 4,136 is today‘s bearish objective as much as it was yesterday. No matter how uneventful slash trappy today‘s premarket is so far, watch the moves under the surface – in real assets and USD. Here is what I expect from the upcoming PMIs – similar to the eurozone data, services would keep doing better than manufacturing, and it would be obvious that LEIs hadn‘t yet bottomed. At the same time, the results would likely feed into the Fed remaining restrictive, i.e. decreasing liquidity equals headwinds for risk assets. Don‘t forget the latest inflation surprise from the UK, and Waller or Bullard talking lately the inflation fight or terminal Fed funds rate… while the Treasury General Account would need to get replenished, Fed balance sheet is shrinking, and deposits still leaving the system for money market funds and similar.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe downside move is one for starters only, and unless 4,115 convincingly breaks, the tug of war between the bulls and bears would continue. The buy the dippers hesitated only yesterday, and for all the selling kicking in in NVDA and AAPL, this isn‘t yet enough. I‘m waiting for a green light from XLF, XLI and XLB, which should start following XLC and XLU lower – we aren‘t yet there at this maximum bearish constellation, and it‘s doubtful whether the internals picture would be this ideal next week when all the headwinds post options expiry intensify. Still, the outlook for next week is bearish.Oil has to grapple with approaching recession and demand jitters that are however a bit overblown considering the solid China upswing (no, SPR releases aren‘t enough to overpower the market). $77.50 first serious support could mark most of the downside as in (I wrote yesterday), but the fact it had been already reached today, shows that the sellers are getting a little ahead of themselves on a very short-term basis – I‘m expecting prices to stay here at $78 through today and tomorrow. Of course, broader risk-off sending copper towards $3.90 would change medium-term oil price projection as much as gold and silver breaking with ease below $1,970 and $24.10 respectively (the metals don‘t show willingness to do that, not even on entering the next week).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Bearish gap that S&P 500 buyers couldn‘t close, and worrying market breadth – such are the characteristics of going into the first and second key data release today. Just like the TSLA earnings highlight called, these paint a deterioration of consumer and business landscape while the Fed insists on being restrictive (inflation hasn‘t veritably retreated where it matters, and crude oil had appreciated over the past weeks, affecting headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations alike). All the recession ingredients are simply in place, for quite some time – hello, Q3 2023.4,136 had been the optimistic but true „point of control“, conquering which allows the bears to take initiative. What they couldn‘t achieve yesterday, they‘re making fine progress at today. 4,111 to 4,115 represents next major support the sellers have to, and will break through – on a good enough catalyst. I don‘t expect 4,178 to be jeopardized today or tomorrow in the least – the bears are in the driver‘s seat, and I told you to get ready twice (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

For all the narrow range day, S&P 500 bears look to be waking up – in conjuction with USD. Highlighted by Russell 2000, to be confirmed by real assets today as much as by cryptos – 4,136 battle looms. Don‘t forget the key inflation data from the UK seriously overshooting expectations, marking the next Fed tightening and keeping tight path. Not even MS expects rate cuts this year. NFLX earnings prediction also illustrates the weakening consumer as much as recent retail sales.Liquidity keeps shrinking, lending standards are getting tight, MS set up increasing loan loss provisions as well – time to start slowly dusting off the bear return gear (return within the context of a larger trading range – couple of key resistances turned supports to break through first). The earliest tweet of today, is getting confirmed as we speak.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe struggle at overcoming 4,188 is more than welcome – are the buyers losing slowly steam? 4,209 didn‘t even come into jeopardy, and the most optimistic case for the sellers calls for putting serious pressure on (and breaking) 4,136. TSLA earnings could be the catalyst here – where I see the greatest risk, is on the revenue / forward guidance rather than gross profitability side. Look for rising input costs with labor to bite increasingly more – watch out! Overall, should still confirm the slowing down real economy (what else do the price cuts in the US show anyway?).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears missed a good intraday opportunity after winning for 6 hrs in the regular session. For all the market breadth limping along, it was Russell 2000, financials and industrials with materials that did well, no matter what energy, precious metals and cryptos see on the horizon. Bearish divergencies in advancing-declining issues, new high-new lows, even merely stocks above the 50-day moving averages in S&P 500 and Nasdaq – amply described yesterday together with earnings, job market and manufacturing (LEIs) data ahead, haven‘t invalidated the medium-term bearish case for stocks. For all the shrinking liquidity talked, this rally is proceeding – sell in May and go away“ seasonal effect would be weaker than usual.(…) Disruptive tech (AI driving semiconductors) remains well placed. … So, we have tech stocks to outperform value in the current low growth environment, would the thinking go, however if you check market breadth in Nasdaq, the bearish divergence in the making is even worse than in S&P 500. It‘s the big names and semiconductors holding it up, while advance-decline line and new highs-new lows are largely struggling.Don‘t forget the (some 3 months ahead) debt ceiling impasse – Treasury is thus far drawing down its General Account at the Fed (what was $355bn early Mar is only $113bn now), while the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, and at the same time deposits from both small and big banks are going to money market funds and similar. M2 continutes declining, LEIs are firmly negative, ISM manufacturing at 46 is the average of when recession has been declared (in my opinion, recession though isn‘t here yet still thanks to most consumers still going through the excess savings – and that‘s delaying the onset), and the deposit outflows make for less commercial credit expansion possibilities. Real estate likewise hasn‘t bottomed yet – neither commercial nor residential (and that would weigh on both banks and consumers), job market is sliding as per my schedule, and earnings estimates for the overwhelming majority still to report, seem likewise too optimistic to me still.While we‘re getting disinflation (that‘s what‘s spurring the greatest disconnect threatening stocks), it‘s the headline figure driven by retreating energy – this though has stopped being the truth regarding oil – yet core inflation (both core CPI and core PPI) don‘t mirror that optimism.As I have stated in late 2022, the Fed is trying to avoid the 1970s mistake of not attending to inflation expectations (as these risk becoming unanchored), hiking too fast, causing a recession, and having to cut. This time, Powell is determined to go slow, and keep rates restrictive, slightly restrictive in a bid not to cause recession, even if the Fed (correctly and not only for this reason) acknowledged recession risks in 2H 2023 as sharply up thanks to the spring banking crisis.All of this combined translates into what I told you a week ago – USD relief rally, a few points‘ upswing coinciding with risk-off turn in the markets, is approaching as much as the talk of dollar double bottom. It had already sent precious metals packing Friday – but my 2023 star pick of PMs remains unchanged, but we‘re likely to correct first before overcoming gold highs as it becomes later in 2023 obvious that the Fed would have to step up to the plate and start buying assets again.For now though, as the first tweet in the European morning and the following one argue, the buyers still have some time to close finally above 4,188 (likely today, not an isolated instance), but I doubt that 4,257 can be sustainably broken above. This struggle above 4,188 would be enough to convince the last doubters that a new bull market is born – if it sticks around till the end of the month.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,209 is the nearest weak resistance, but we‘re to see consolidation around 4,188 first. The momentum from yesterday still points higher, especially if tech catches up and we see a modest rotation into growth stocks including semiconductors. No matter how these are lagging lately relatively speaking, they‘ll remain among the better performing pockets of the market in 2023.No time for a broad stock market downswing – rising unemployment claims Thursday would help, but undershooting PMIs Friday (nothing unachievable), would help totally. Till then, it‘s still a grind to convince that it‘s „safe“ to buy the dips before more of the earnings announced start spoiling the picture.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals correction is firmly here, and merely starting. Look at crypto as well confirming the stiffening headwinds. All eyes on Fed tightening and yields rising again (rising within a certain range for 2023 – in 10-y below 4% and above 3.25%, that‘s its range).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears had three good reasons to force a close lower – high consumer inflation expectations, weak retail sales and Waller saying that however you look at it, inflation is too high and doesn‘t allow the Fed to declare mission completed. While the rebound into the close was both in value and tech, the market breadth (shown in the next chart), remains disastrous (check divergencies to Feb values), and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain highly selective.Disruptive tech (AI driving semiconductors) remains well placed together with other asset picks shared shortly before Christmas:(…) I‘m also bullish oil stocks ($XOM, $SLB), copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt. This is the decade of resources, necessities of life, precious metals and disruptive technologies while general Nasdaq troubles are to continue. Just check the Nasdaq to oil ratio for clarity.So, we have tech stocks to outperform value in the current low growth environment, would the thinking go, however if you check market breadth in Nasdaq, the bearish divergence in the making is even worse than in S&P 500. It‘s the big names and semiconductors holding it up, while advance-decline line and new highs-new lows are largely struggling.Don‘t forget the (some 3 months ahead) debt ceiling impasse – Treasury is thus far drawing down its General Account at the Fed (what was $355bn early Mar is only $113bn now), while the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, and at the same time deposits from both small and big banks are going to money market funds and similar. M2 continutes declining, LEIs are firmly negative, ISM manufacturing at 46 is the average of when recession has been declared (in my opinion, recession though isn‘t here yet still thanks to most consumers still going through the excess savings – and that‘s delaying the onset), and the deposit outflows make for less commercial credit expansion possibilities. Real estate likewise hasn‘t bottomed yet – neither commercial nor residential (and that would weigh on both banks and consumers), job market is sliding as per my schedule, and earnings estimates for the overwhelming majority still to report, seem likewise too optimistic to me still.While we‘re getting disinflation (that‘s what‘s spurring the greatest disconnect threatening stocks), it‘s the headline figure driven by retreating energy – this though has stopped being the truth regarding oil – yet core inflation (both core CPI and core PPI) don‘t mirror that optimism.As I have stated in late 2022, the Fed is trying to avoid the 1970s mistake of not attending to inflation expectations (as these risk becoming unanchored), hiking too fast, causing a recession, and having to cut. This time, Powell is determined to go slow, and keep rates restrictive, slightly restrictive in a bid not to cause recession, even if the Fed (correctly and not only for this reason) acknowledged recession risks in 2H 2023 as sharply up thanks to the spring banking crisis.All of this combined translates into what I told you a week ago – USD relief rally, a few points‘ upswing coinciding with risk-off turn in the markets, is approaching as much as the talk of dollar double bottom. It had already sent precious metals packing Friday – but my 2023 star pick of PMs remains unchanged, but we‘re likely to correct first before overcoming gold highs as it becomes later in 2023 obvious that the Fed would have to step up to the plate and start buying assets again.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAlarming show of market breadth, and any weakness would start first in value stocks. Some parts of tech would be hit too, but the semiconductors and heavyweights are to get it last. Get it as in still continuing to outperform. But I still think that the upcoming weakness in utilities, consumer staples, real estate and banking, would overpower brighter spots elsewhere.My 4,188 level was predictably rejected Friday, but bulls are likely to try still as Friday‘s appetite shows. The break of 4,115 has to wait, there isn‘t yet enough confirmation to speak of in the bond market.Monday‘s manufacturing data (crucially though Friday‘s manufacturing and services PMIs) would provide some bearish fuel.Credit MarketsThe risk-on move is weakening, and junk corporate bonds stand a good risk of having to adjust to the downside quite fast. When fresh debt issuance restarts with the usual pace, yields would be tempted to rise again – the current times are those of a temporary reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals correction is returning, and it means volatile trading until the USD rebound becomes clearly recognized as one targeting 105. We aren‘t there yet, for now it‘s only froth that‘s being taken from gold and silver.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 celebrated both the low PPI and CPI headline lately, chose not to focus on core data (key metric for the Fed), and reacted with a temporary downswing only when reminded of recession – be it Fed minutes or today‘s retail sales, with consumer confidence to come still.More intraday commentary on Twitter and Telegram follows as always – best combined with individual chart sections below.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStocks are advancing on still poor market breadth even if financials anticipated good bank earnings today. Bonds though didn‘t stand in the way, but risk taking in junk corporate ones is attracting some second thoughts (is the credit juice freely flowing again?). I‘m looking for stocks to take on 4,188 (with success) rather than breaking below 4,129 really. Whether tech continues doing well, or rotation into value kicks in, is the key factor as regards the next trading days (the latter is constructive for this still ongoing rally – this isn‘t yet time to turn short-term bearish).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals haven‘t topped, but the hawkish remarks (Fed, ECB) will hit them at one point. For now, it‘s still about carefree upswing driven by dollar woes (reminiscence on my Sunday thoughts).Crude OilCrude oil is to keep treading water a little before heading higher again – that‘s the function of recession signs popping up. Shallow consolidation ahead at best.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 celebrated the tame CPI figure, and Fed minutes mentioning (risks of, thanks to banking) recession in 2H 2023, took care of the rest. Bonds risk-off, USD not well bid thanks to Fed pivot bets being dialed up, and real assets doing very well. The same goes for rising unemployment claims and slowing down PPI (inflation in the pipeline). The key question is when would the justifiably bearish interpretation overpower the remaining bullish sentiment (as if Fed pivot were happening in vacuum)...More intraday commentary on Twitter and Telegram follows as always – best combined with individual chart sections below.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookJunk bonds have made up their mind yesterday, and will continue underperforming quality instruments (its upswing attempts would be sold into increasingly heavily over the weeks ahead). 4,129 is a key daily ES_F level for deciding the daily bias – muddling through with either slightly bullish or slightly bearish daily tendency. As much as 4,160s are are out of an easy reach (given the terrible market breadth), and so is 4,015 followed by 4,078 (the latter level would flip the sentiment fairly fairly, fairly fast, but we aren‘t there yet). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 consolidated, but markets still favored bullish resolution to today‘s CPI, which I told you about with plenty of advance warning – be it Sunday or today European morning. Sure enough there still more to squeeze in this bear market rally, I confirmed before the CPI release. I also wrote that the Fed would as a result be challenged to back off from tightening, and the data release aftermath confirms that.The actual 5.0% YoY headline CPI (core of course unmoved and sticky) provides plenty of bullish cover. USD is to still remain on the defensive (for now), and gold with silver would welcome that most. Still, this isn‘t yet time for a meaningful correction in precious metals – and likewise crude oil is to remain fairly well bid. At the moment, copper is most sensitive to the deteriorating economic prospects.I didn‘t even bring up the bearish targets (applicable to medium-term as at least this week is still a bullish one) yesterday – after closing midpoint between 4,115 and 4,160s resistance, I‘ve prepared you for 4,160s to be thoroughly challenged, and here we are. The buyers don‘t look to be done, and can think about 4,188 target at their convenience (those are the key words here – at their convenience) (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com), which would of course coincide with more real asset upside (all at the expense of the dollar).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 buyers stepped in quite early indeed – no surprise as the sell into the open couldn‘t yet have lasted. Even the battle around intraday lows spelled the return of the bulls. The table was set for no selling into downswing attempts, and sure enough stocks closed on a relatively fine note, which favors more of the back anf forth price action today – before tomorrow‘s likely 5.4% YoY CPI gets celebrated by the Fed pivot afficionados:(…) Still, the key theme of this week is going to be Wednesday‘s CPI – look for the headline YoY figure to come in at 5.4% (no higher than 5.5% really), but for the core CPI to remain more resilient. The market will in my view again take that as „the Fed will really pivot now“ (really this time), even though the core CPI wouldn‘t support that notion. I continue to think the market is getting it terribly wrong expecting 100bp rate cuts this year – the Fed would continue keeping Fed funds rate at 5.25% (that means one more hike is ahead, and then a pause). First though, the poor earnings would catch up with S&P 500, followed by more real economy deterioration in the face of restrictive Fed and rising oil prices (these are the shadow Fed funds rate).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookMonday‘s close indeed wasn‘t below 4,115 – and stocks are to keep meandering around this level today as well. Taking on the 4,160s resistance though has to wait, won‘t happen today either. I‘m looking for a relatively narrow range day, offering just enough whipsaws.Credit MarketsBonds turned sufficiently risk-on, but the underperformance vs. stocks is still there. And that‘s telling, medium-term telling – similarly to the poor market breadth (looming divergence vs. prior rally tops), For today, expect nothing more than weak clues regarding tomorrow‘s CPI positioning.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bulls are likely to do fine early next week, no matter the gathering technical and macroeconomic clouds. Take Friday‘s NFPs that I called to come not above 240K. As for the rest of my prediction (not being surprised by low 200K or more probably a figure starting with 1xxK), I‘ll have to wait for the revisions in the months ahead – and they will meaningfully come, because that‘s how typically non-farm payrolls work. We have seen that this week already with unemployment claims (initial or continuing), and the NFPs employment change, Challenger job cuts and JOLTS job openings paint a more comprehensive picture for me – it‘s only reasonable to expect deteriorating job market data ahead.Still, the key theme of this week is going to be Wednesday‘s CPI – look for the headline YoY figure to come in at 5.4% (no higher than 5.5% really), but for the core CPI to remain more resilient. The market will in my view again take that as „the Fed will really pivot now“ (really this time), even though the core CPI wouldn‘t support that notion. I continue to think the market is getting it terribly wrong expecting 100bp rate cuts this year – the Fed would continue keeping Fed funds rate at 5.25% (that means one more hike is ahead, and then a pause). First though, the poor earnings would catch up with S&P 500, followed by more real economy deterioration in the face of restrictive Fed and rising oil prices (these are the shadow Fed funds rate).I‘m discussing outlook for other markets in today‘s rich real assets chart section, and that includes a heads up for important PMs, crude oil and dollar moves.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookMonday‘s close below 4,115 isn‘t the leading scenario, and stocks are likely to approach (take on) low 4,160s resistance, which would be broken in the latter half of next week. Monday or Tuesday really isn‘t yet time for 4,078, let alone 4,039.Credit MarketsBonds will continue underperforming, and my earlier points about fresh corporate debt issuance slowing to a crawl amid continued junk bonds underperformance, still apply. Add commercial real estate dragging down regional banks (major CRE loans originator), deposits situation, and you know all the ingredients for KRE and financials underperformance. Risk taking is already poor in this narrow rally, also if you look at Russell 2000 and detailed sectoral overview in the introduction to Friday‘s article.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity Friday, and for all the anticipated deterioration in unemployment claims, couldn‘t keep the pressure on. Niether semiconductors, nor financials, nor Russell 2000 were enthusiastic, let alone value stocks – industrials and materials were limping too, testifying to the defensives led daily reversal (utilities and consumer staples, followed then by healthcare). Above all, tech had a good day, but the advance-decline line turned barely positive, new highs new lows are lagging, and only advance-decline volume saved the day.Bottom line, the bear market rally upswing is still suspect, and stocks are overvalued both on E and P/E basis given that no no landing is ahead.Conversely, today‘s non-farm payrolls can be counted on to prove disappointing to the bulls. Anything above 240K (even with all the adjustments and other statistical tools employed), can‘t be expected, and given the most recent JOLTS, I wouldn‘t be surprised by at best a low 200K figure, or more probably by a data point starting with 1xxK.And given the finally again „bad is bad“ dynamic, it means that S&P 500 is likely to react to the figure risk-off, with a downswing once trading gets underway again (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Happy (Catholic) Easter holidays if you celebrate & enjoy the long weekend!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears didn‘t disappoint yesterday, remaining in control as the focus shifts to recession signs. Both ISM services PMI and non-farm payrolls employment change data continued on Tuesday‘s note, and the short end of the curve is reaching for fresh lows, with 10-y yield well below those (at 3.30% already). This is not what any risk-on drive thanks to stabilization in financials looks like – the deposit outflows continue, and Fed isn‘t capitulating in its still tight drive, exposing the prior rally to be only a bear market one (you knew). Job market deterioration is getting increasingly confirmed not just through this week‘s unemployment claims, but notably an even higher figure revision the week before. The Mar-Apr time window for deterioration discussed, is clearly here. Risk-off day ahead but look for real assets to keep showing resilience...Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersFine show of strength in not really retreating – precious metals are digesting the emergence of recession trades coupled with oil returning back above $80, and not about to retreat really. Expect copper to remain likewise resilient while many S&P 500 stocks (oil stocks and miners would be of course an exception) would start getting under increasing selling pressure on poor earnings, economy and hawkish Fed outlook.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 finally turned south in line with the medium-term outlook, in reaction to the wildly underwhelming JOLTS data. Job market deterioration is finally getting reflected as per the Mar/Apr timeing for issues to arrive that I discussed earlier. Unemployment claims rising and finally non-farm payrolls would come to reflect that. Today‘s employment change is first such a sign, but all eyes are on Friday‘s non-farm payrolls. The bears are aligning for a pleasant surprise as buy the dippers are bound to get increasingly overpowered. Expect more risk-off in bonds and the surge in precious metals to continue at its own pace higher (my star pick for 2023). Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersVery fine recession reaction – lower yields sending down the dollar as the Fed can‘t remain this restrictive, the market thinking goes. Silver doing well as inflation is undefeated.Crude OilOil is consolidating high ground, and would be far less hurt than copper through the recession jitters. Well, I say jitters, but markets obviously have to overcome the misguided no landing first. In doing so, they may very well start questioning the soft landing too...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 proved key point of yesterday‘s extensive analysis – the buyers still have higher to go but the key resistance is approaching. After quite a couple of days, tech stocks took a breather as rotation into value led by oil stocks, materials and industrials (so as to confirm decent market breadth) took the spotlight. Financials continued doing relatively well – while XLF is moving up, KRE keeps lagging, which only reflects the precarious position of smaller banks, and concentration within the sector that I told you about in mid Mar already.No matter how poor ISM manufacturing PMI came (46.3), it‘ll take some time still for the Fed to relent from tightening, or alternatively for the bond market to get convinced that the Fed would still do one more 25bp hike, and then keep rates there (probably only until a truly catastrophic event strikes, but I‘m not looking for one to hit us really soon, no.Don‘t forget the big picture:(…) The rally is of course heavily dependent on the sectors I talked often recently – tech, semiconductors and communications. The dependance on heavyweights is all too palpable, and the flagging broader participation would come to bite, but not yet. Let NVDA, META, AMD and TSLA do the job for now. They are the generals that would be left standing while the troops at a future point refuse to participate in the upswing (not immediately on the horizon).At the same time, financials continue limping as deposits are still leaving the banking system. Given the state of the long end of the curve and unyielding Fed attitude towards tightening, that‘s a watchout for the days ahead. Merely a watchout, because the relief that no other bank is in immediate trouble (hitting headlines), can and is winning the day.The greatest conflict though persists - in bonds forcing the Fed to pivot, and Fed refusing to indicate so. Consider that 100bp rate cuts in 2023 are already priced in, but the Fed keeps ruling them out. Justifiably so I say – it can continue keeping rates restrictive (letting disinflation continue as best as it can) while providing liquidity through the back door so as to prop up the banking system that suffers through having taken the only route left in the quest for returns in the low rates era, which is going out on the long end (and is predictably hit when the Fed has no other choice but to keep raising thanks to inflation).The Fed monetary policy uncertainty thus created in the markets, is obvious – the Fed has to shield the banking system from rate raising (keeping rates restrictive) consequences. At the same time, the central bank has to keep a close eye on corporate credit markets so that these don‘t seize the way they did in Dec 2018 – and fresh debt issuance and rollover ever since SVB went under, are not at all encouraging. Note that 25% of investment grade corporate debt has to be rolled over this year, and the activity review of junk corporate bonds and leveraged loan markets (private equity) doesn‘t look more optimistic.There you go with one explanation of why financials are lagging this badly. The retreat in inflation continues, but expect goods inflation to kick in, and not only because of the rising oil prices, while services inflation would remain quite stubborn. Earnings recession is to be getting more often mentioned in the weeks ahead, while the continued Fed restrictive stance keeps carrying the risk of something new breaking somewhere else. I‘m not vocally calling for a credit event, but for a sufficiently bearish catalyst slash risk in the nearest say 2 months before either the Fed starts doing market‘s bidding, or the other way round.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookEven 4,115 is too far for today (let alone 4,078, and 4,039 won‘t come this week either) As said yesterday, the short-term outlook remains undeniably bullish, but it‘ll be of backing a filling first as the rally is short-term quite overstretched. Credit MarketsBonds are taking a breather, and unless they start really weakening, I wouldn‘t be reading too much into their today‘s (upcoming) performance.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 completed the third day of bullish calls, and didn‘t create many non-confirmations on the way to the 4,130s. While market breadth is still concerning, it had very much improved Friday, and can carry the bulls into 4,175 – 4,185 next resistance area. Not right away, but this is doable for the buyers – even if some little Monday pullback comes after the extraordinary surge that wasn‘t limited to the power hour. The improvements seen from industrials, materials and consumer discretionaries with staples as opposed to utilities, make it more than likely.The rally is of course heavily dependent on the sectors I talked often recently – tech, semiconductors and communications. The dependance on heavyweights is all too palpable, and the flagging broader participation would come to bite, but not yet. Let NVDA, META, AMD and TSLA do the job for now. They are the generals that would be left standing while the troops at a future point refuse to participate in the upswing (not immediately on the horizon).At the same time, financials continue limping as deposits are still leaving the banking system. Given the state of the long end of the curve and unyielding Fed attitude towards tightening, that‘s a watchout for the days ahead. Merely a watchout, because the relief that no other bank is in immediate trouble (hitting headlines), can and is winning the day.The greatest conflict though persists - in bonds forcing the Fed to pivot, and Fed refusing to indicate so. Consider that 100bp rate cuts in 2023 are already priced in, but the Fed keeps ruling them out. Justifiably so I say – it can continue keeping rates restrictive (letting disinflation continue as best as it can) while providing liquidity through the back door so as to prop up the banking system that suffers through having taken the only route left in the quest for returns in the low rates era, which is going out on the long end (and is predictably hit when the Fed has no other choice but to keep raising thanks to inflation).The Fed monetary policy uncertainty thus created in the markets, is obvious – the Fed has to shield the banking system from rate raising (keeping rates restrictive) consequences. At the same time, the central bank has to keep a close eye on corporate credit markets so that these don‘t seize the way they did in Dec 2018 – and fresh debt issuance and rollover ever since SVB went under, are not at all encouraging. Note that 25% of investment grade corporate debt has to be rolled over this year, and the activity review of junk corporate bonds and leveraged loan markets (private equity) doesn‘t look more optimistic.There you go with one explanation of why financials are lagging this badly. The retreat in inflation continues, but expect goods inflation to kick in, and not only because of the rising oil prices, while services inflation would remain quite stubborn. Earnings recession is to be getting more often mentioned in the weeks ahead, while the continued Fed restrictive stance keeps carrying the risk of something new breaking somewhere else. I‘m not vocally calling for a credit event, but for a sufficiently bearish catalyst slash risk in the nearest say 2 months before either the Fed starts doing market‘s bidding, or the other way round.I‘m publishing the analysis already today as I won‘t be online in the earliest past of the US regular session Monday.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,115 followed by 4,078 (no, 4,039 is a bridge too far) would be the support levels to start the week, but probably only the first one can be realistically reached. The short-term outlook though remains undeniably bullish as I were writing since early Wednesday. 4,175 – 4,185 is the buyers‘ objective for the nearest days / few short weeks, because chop will start appearing as the air is thinning up there.Gold, Silver and MinersStill a clear winner, all roads are leading to precious metals. Even that daily decline on retreating inflation wasn‘t that bad as yields made up for that. And when the dollar starts weakening later this year (hello, debt ceiling Q3 2023), that will be one more engine firing.Crude OilThe awaited crude oil upswing is here, $73 didn‘t come into jeopardy, and once oil cuts into $79, the going gets easier. After $82.50, the bullish turn would be undeniable also on weekly chart (not that it would be looking bad already now).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued extending gains no matter the sectoral non-confirmations – the momentum from bonds had been enough as telegraphed both in yesterday‘s analysis and intraday updates (pointing to increasingly thin air up there in this liquidity based rally). The appropriate view is to compare the underperforming stock market rally meeting deteriorating earnings first, against outsized gains in precious metals and commodities. Before the core PCE report, we got plenty of chop indeed. The eurozone headline vs. core inflation data have been favorable to the bearish stocks thesis (explained in the linked to thread). The figure came in slightly below expectations, by a miserable 0.1% year on year, which is hardly enough to dissuade the Fed from tightening. No real fireworks – today or Monday. Crude oil is to lead today higher, followed by silver. Not expecting daily miracles from copper, and gold would continue treading at $2,000 still, all of which has risk-off undertones. Undertones – it‘s not enough to send stocks into daily decline. The daily outlook continues being ever so slightly but still bullish. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook 4,039 won‘t again come into jeopardy (and neither will 4,015 as the going won‘t get really tough in the core PCE aftermath either). Liquidity is still lifting this boat for now. It doesn‘t matter when exactly 4,115 target would be reached, but on what kind of non-confirmations (if reached at all – it‘s hard to time when tech starts gasping for breath). Credit Markets Bonds aren‘t to turn risk-off today, and would pose no obstacle to the stock market bulls. The short end of the curve should act reserved about today‘s data, and long end would continue drifting very slowly higher. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears proved they hold shorter end of the stick, just like I warned early in the European session yesterday, and my aftermarket conclusions confirmed that. It‘s that bonds turned really risk-on on a daily basis, and market breadth very much improved, which means that this rally can and will go on to challenge 4,115 – and not even a hotter (above 0.4%) core PCE figure tomorrow would derail it.Even if unemployment claims aren‘t yet surging sharply, recession is approaching. It‘s the tight(ened) bank lending standards, reprieve in real eastate based on mortgage rates retreat (helping with consumer confidence and retail sales as there are still some excess savings to burn through) about to end, and the improving 10 over 2y yield spread, that are signalling approaching recession while LEIs continue declining.Russell 2000 could have been stronger really yesterday, and several big tech names (incl TSLA which isn‘t though classified as tech) are slowly struggling (this is medium-term view only) as much as crypto has some bearish divergences in the making.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe buyers won‘t give up today either, and 4,039 shouldn‘t come into jeopardy in the least (4,015 if the going gets really tough, which it won‘t till tomorrow‘s core PCE). The bulls will likely deal with existing minor non-confirmations while not creating fresh ones today. 4,115 target approaching.Credit MarketsBonds aren‘t to turn risk-off today, and would pose no obstacle to the stock market bulls. What‘s interesting though, is the short end of the curve, and the evolution of bets on the Fed tightening to not only be over soon, but to turn into rate cuts (seeing an emergency one in Jun or so, is though terribly misguided in my view).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity, and couldn‘t keep pressuring even only NDX. While banking is getting less in the headlines, it isn‘t turning up either. The same goes for yesterday‘s hesitant perfomance of smallcaps, industrials and materials – bonds aren‘t paving the way for a universally clear upswing either.It‘s only the veracity of S&P 500 intraday reversal higher coupled with premarket consolidation taking price action just below the key 4,039 resistance that makes me assume the buyers would try to break above. The more though the banks cease to be the focus of the day, the more would prior safe havens (tech and Treasuries, not gold and real assets) get hurt by money outflows.For now, stocks remain trading in a larger range, and the higher they attempt to grind, the more warning signs would pop up before the true recession hallmarks – rising unemployment (initial, continuing claims), earnings downgrades and manufacturing – make as short a process with this dillydallying rally as the return of inflation (strengthened by rising oil again while nominal wage growth didn‘t recede much, and services inflation remains still hot) as the recognition of why the Fed would pivot at all (how about economic slowdown and pressure on banks through continued deposit outflows?). Consumer confidence and retail sales would kick in too, but are for now shielded by the termporary housing recovery (based on limited supply and lower mortgage rates).This is a perfect environment for – as in all roads lead to – gold and silver. Take silver confirmed by copper and base metals swinging higher, and 2023 will truly be the year of precious metals. One of many.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Crude OilThe second trip to $66 turned out pretty lame, and the bears couldn‘t muster more strength. $71 – 73 would now act as support, and a series of higher highs and higher lows is upon us.CopperVery bullish copper price action and continued outperformance of the commodities index – the worst in this two month long correction, is over.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 had just one bullish ally, Russell 2000 – and that‘s not enough. The dust in financials hasn‘t yet settled, and Treasury yields are likely to decline today. Within the context of the trading range to be resolved to the downside, I‘m not looking for bearish fireworks just yet.Keeping up with the big picture introduced in yesterday‘s extensive analysis:(…) the common denominator being strong market pressure on Powell to give up further tightening and actually cut rates soon, perhaps strengthened by the Yellen behind closed doors banking meeting, which didn‘t bring about any deposits game changer. The reality of almost $400bn fresh liquidity thrown at the issues over the last two weeks, remains...Deposits are still leaving smaller banks for bigger banks and money market funds – the KRE and XLF charts reflect the stress. This is a time of great uncertainty – financials can either stabilize through all the Fed actions and foreign swap lines (the same goes for Russell 2000), or decline considerably more. Either way, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.The consumer continues burning through excess savings, the savings rate is at historically low levels, credit card usage is up, and bank lending standards are tightening. Mortgages, car loans, credit card balances… meanwhile LEIs continue declining, and it‘s also exactly one year since the Fed started the steep rate raising cycle, meaning that the real economy still has to feel most of the rate hikes already in (steepest rate raising cycle since mid 1990s, by the way).Yet thanks to the banking troubles ushered in through the risk-free rate of return changes, markets have decided that it‘s time for Powell to officially pivot. Yes, they were thrown off whack by the 25bp hike, and chose to disregard the promise to hike once again (the bets on May being the pause month are 80%), and keep them restrictive. Likewise, it didn‘t listen to the remark that any tightening done through the lending standards of commercial banks, is actually equivalent to a hike.The market is looking forward for a pivot soon, without appreciating what such a pivot actually means (as in heralds)– a recognition of troubles ahead. And these would arrive either through more banking news, through job market weakness, or through earnings disappointments. The Q1 earnings estimates would have to be yet downgraded I‘m afraid, and the same goes for Q2 as a minimum.Stocks don‘t get that yet, and are focusing on easing already in Jun, without asking whether we have signs of proper market bottom such as rising LEIs, accomodative Fed and loose commercial banking standards. None of these apply.Tech with semiconductors may catch up a bit after yesterday‘s woes while value would continue having second thoughts, and VIX is to returning back above 21.50. Today simply epitomizes caution to me, where risks to the downside should slowly keep building up. Likewise yesterday‘s odd gold decline (driven solely by the 25bp hike odds, not confirmed by miners or silver) would be reversed while silver‘s appeal would keep illustrating that inflation coupled with slowing growth (otherwise called stagflation seen in other commodity ratios) is and will be increasingly an issue if you consider that apart from services inflation and still high nominal wage growth, we would be increasingly talking about rising crude oil prices in the months ahead.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,015 shouldn‘t get challenged today again, but at the same time (failing a catalyst), I‘m not looking for a break of 3,945 - 3,958 zone either. Seeing bearish forces slowly build up, would be ideal here. 3,915 – 3,927 milestones are still too far away, and market breadth indicators need to get knocked down first.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 reversed, but the upswing teemed with non-confirmations and oddities, the common denominator being strong market pressure on Powell to give up further tightening and actually cut rates soon, perhaps strengthened by the Yellen behind closed doors banking meeting, which didn‘t bring about any deposits game changer. The reality of almost $400bn fresh liquidity thrown at the issues over the last two weeks, remains... Deposits are still leaving smaller banks for bigger banks and money market funds – the KRE and XLF charts reflect the stress. This is a time of great uncertainty – financials can either stabilize through all the Fed actions and foreign swap lines (the same goes for Russell 2000), or decline considerably more. Either way, the dust hasn‘t settled yet. The consumer continues burning through excess savings, the savings rate is at historically low levels, credit card usage is up, and bank lending standards are tightening. Mortgages, car loans, credit card balances… meanwhile LEIs continue declining, and it‘s also exactly one year since the Fed started the steep rate raising cycle, meaning that the real economy still has to feel most of the rate hikes already in (steepest rate raising cycle since mid 1990s, by the way). Yet thanks to the banking troubles ushered in through the risk-free rate of return changes, markets have decided that it‘s time for Powell to officially pivot. Yes, they were thrown off whack by the 25bp hike, and chose to disregard the promise to hike once again (the bets on May being the pause month are 80%), and keep them restrictive. Likewise, it didn‘t listen to the remark that any tightening done through the lending standards of commercial banks, is actually equivalent to a hike. The market is looking forward for a pivot soon, without appreciating what such a pivot actually means (as in heralds)– a recognition of troubles ahead. And these would arrive either through more banking news, through job market weakness, or through earnings disappointments. The Q1 earnings estimates would have to be yet downgraded I‘m afraid, and the same goes for Q2 as a minimum. Read next: Energy: last week crude oil price went up despite news on the production returning to 12.3M BPD | FXMAG.COM Stocks don‘t get that yet, and are focusing on easing already in Jun, without asking whether we have signs of proper market bottom such as rising LEIs, accomodative Fed and loose commercial banking standards. None of these apply. That‘s why for all the Friday move higher, I continue being medium-term bearish as there isn‘t a rush out of dollars, precious metals rising on more than fits banking jitters, services inflation and nominal wage growth still hot (factors making the Fed restrictive), and market breadth limping along. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Instead of keeping price action below 3,945 - 3,958 „point of control“ zone, overcoming 4,015 on a closing basis again looms (bullish very short-term). Tech, semis and communications continue acting strong, but unless financials, value and Russell 2000 turn, this respite is only temporary even if it breaks 4,045, and even if it goes for 4,115. The internals are quite weak and VIX appears jsut resting. Credit Markets Bonds are still highly selective of risk. The fundamentals continue favoring LQD, TLT and TLH as opposed to HYG, JNK and the like – this isn‘t a hallmark of broad risk-on rally in stocks. Expect also the 10-y yield to continue retreating. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are the stars – banking question marks, bets on Fed easing, stubborn inflation, nominal wage growth – all of these point to increasing appeal of gold and silver down the road (no matter any temporary hits). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 hesitation was all too palpable yesterday – with a distinctly bearish bias. Yes, I‘m looking at the Nasdaq run going overboard while financials keep showing the real way. What‘s worth noting in this respect, is Yellen‘s remarks on not considering broad increase in deposits insurance, which had been as much driving this week‘s banking moves as the tough Powell stance I readied you for.First, corporate junk bonds protested via their inability to rise in this distinctly risk-off environment (Wednesday and Thursday), and then attention shifted to where the banking chain is facing stress (DB today – this stock has been on my radar screen for quite a while already).The stock market results have been as predictable as the setup... Note not only the commodities underperformance vs. precious metals as new orders component keeps pointing solidly south – no, bull markets don‘t really start when LEIs still keep declining, no, I continue saying – but the dollar is confirming the risk-off shift with a solid intraday upswing.This Friday offers one heck of a ride (initially maybe a bit up as market bets on Powell to do a U-turn, are high) – thanks again for another smashing week at your service – no matter all the BS. Your comments and replies are smashing, thank you so!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,045 together with 4,015 are out of sight again, then 3,945 - 3,958 „point of control“ zone looks unlikely to be broken to the upside on a closing basis later today, and the real battle would be waged at the 3,915 – 3,927 milestones (with 3,884 would be then next bearish objective).The DB catalyst is moving that already for today rather than next week, which would be great given the atrocious NYUD as opposed to NYAD while NYHL point south – yeah, bad market breadth as tech rejection looms).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 took it on the chin as Powell didn‘t chicken out. Yeah, he indeed delivered as I said he has no other realistic choice really. Of course, the banking stocks didn‘t like that, and the stock market selloff was broad, but for all the jubilation, check this three-part thread for my immediate aftermarket commentary further enriched by European morning perspectives. Yes, this selloff needs to continue, but for all I see in bonds, USD and real assets at the moment, odds suggest a far from uneventful (one filled with intraday narrow range traps) session ahead. I‘m commenting on real assets in the below premium section, here let me remind you of the real winners in 2023 and beyond. Read next: US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike| FXMAG.COM Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook 4,045 was indeed rejected before the close, and 4,015 broken to the downside. 3,945 – 3,958 is the next objective for the sellers, and odds are it would be reached and breached rather tomorrow, with 3,915 – 3,927 milestones waiting for further bearish catalysts no earlier than next week. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 really did run higher regardless of further FRC and KRE weakness outdoing XLF, which instead turned up. Quoting yesterday‘s premium stock market analysis:(…) 3,958 would continue acting as support – one which wouldn‘t be jeopardized in the least today. Close above 4,015 seems baked in the cake, and the degree of non-cofirmations and sectoral clues (XLF, KRE, XLK and XLU with XLP chiefly today), are key. The unprofitable tech rally accompanied by semiconductors isn‘t inspiring my confidence – the bond market caution carries more weight to me.S&P 500 indeed approached 4,045 at close, and bonds confirmed with their risk-on couple of hours before the close. Tech finished on a (bit too) strong a note given that semiconductors lagged on a daily basis. Markets are a bit too complacent and much attentive to pivot calls – such a turn won‘t come this soon. The short end of the curve has though acknowledged that 25bp hike is coming, and is betting that it would force the Fed into statements mirroring ECB „resolve“ (Lagarde – „we‘re neither commited to raise further nor are we finished with raising rates“).This seems to me a bit premature, as much as expecting hints of possible restrictive monetary policy pause – or better yet, outright „promises“ of significant rate cuts with terminal Fed funds rate at 5 or perhaps 5.25%. Sounds like pipe dream, and for all the stock market resiliency around 200-day moving average, S&P 500 bulls are to be disappointed.Earnings recession hasn‘t been discounted yet when it comes to Q2 and ahead, job market is still historically hot (and nominal wage growth for all its tiny recent retreat likewise), the short-term respite in energy prices is increasing real economy‘s capacity to deal with further rate hikes as from the inflation standpoint, the Fed hasn‘t overtightened – no matter the tightening effects not having played out yet in the real economy. As not only today‘s UK inflation data show, The Fed can‘t possibly throw in the towel this early, as that would mean repeating the 1970s mistakes eventually leading to unanchored inflation expectations.At the same time, LEIs keep pointing lower, making this a highly unlikely moment for birth of a new bull market. Just look at the recent manufacturing and non-manufacturing data with new orders, and it‘s clear the real economy is showing increasing signs of stress, leading to Q3 recession and necessity to downgrade earnings projections, resulting also in the P/E ratio decline.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,015 are likely to be broken to the downside later today, and 3,980 would be another bearish objective (3,958 would require a truly hawkish press conference). On the upside, we‘re unlikely to see a close above 4,045 even if the Fed turns decently dovish (unlikely).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 ran with CS relief that had something for both bail-out and bail-in proponents, disregarding further KRE weakness outdoing XLF, as tech continues attracting fine bid no matter what yields are doing. Together with general bond market underperformance, this is building up non-confirmations and vulnerability to any hawkish Powell statements tomorrow.Stocks in their daily risk-on turn are willing to run with the current moves as being enough to maintain and restore confidence. Even if the banks don‘t need to compete for deposits, and didn‘t hedge the rising rates totally, stocks are disregarding that for now.The picture is though still of the dust not really settled, and S&P 500 continuing trading in a relatively wide range above Oct lows. The daily outlook thus far confirms uneasy session ahead for the bears (continued pain), with bond yields and the dollar being the key determinants of risk sentiment ahead as much as copper with silver (if I had to pick only two).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals do remain in vogue, and I‘m not looking for any kind of a powerful feedback. If we see 25bp tomorrow with some hawkish language on readiness, and not too much banking / deposits fights, gold followed by silver would keep thei own. Consider pullback below $1,950 a gift (may come before FOMC as almost usual) - this is the main star of 2023.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 didn‘t maintain premarket momentum as fresh banking doubts resurfaced, pulling down cyclicals. It wasn‘t though a full-blown panic as (tech) megacaps, semiconductors and communications were benefiting alongside long-dated Treasuries. 2y yield is though clear on what it expects from the Fed – no more serious tightening (fuelling PMs). That would translate into compromising on the fight against inflation, and towards backstopping the financial system ($300bn balance sheet expansion in a week plus $160bn over the discount window is handily outdoing the Great Financial Crisis actions).This time, it‘s not the result of making recless loans, but an unintended, poorly hedged consequence of the fastest rate raising cycle since mid 1990s as I argued in Monday‘s extensive analysis. In normal circumstances, banks don‘t have to worry about sitting on Treasuries‘ losses if they hold to maturity. When they though have to sell because of depositors withdrawing funds, that‘s a different story. Sure that T-Bills at 5% (and CDs, money market funds) provide such an incentive, which has been newly amplified by bank health worries (aka the dreaded bank run, difficult to stop once underway), which has the power to negatively impair even the healthier banks.The Fed though acted fast and decisively, and the market gyrations within S&P 500, XLF and KRE witnessed, reflect more so uncertainty about the problem‘s magnitude and future path (we are talking many hundreds of billions in underwater instruments – again, unless they have to be forcefully sold, the issues won‘t manifest to their full extent) than doubt about the central bank‘s resolve.The Fed had no other choice, and it‘ll be interesting to see how it balances the banking system stability with inflation fight. ECB might have done a face saving 50bp hike (no promises next), and Fed is likely to hike by 25bp on Wednesday. Even though inflation is retreating, it‘s still uncomfortably high, and pretty much everything services related still hot, meaning the inflation fight is far from over. Debt ceiling ahead is another issue on the radar screen. Still, the Fed is likely to keep if not tightening, then at least not lowering rates this, meaning any time, soon. I‘m publishing today‘s analysis already Sunday before any CS deal news either way, which can trigger kneejerk risk-on move that would though fizzle out latest within days (solution reached, SNB backstops provided), or result in continued stress for risk-on assets (declining stocks and junk corporate bonds) in case of no deal. I want you to be prepared as I won‘t be online during a good part of Monday.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren‘t enough) – on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with Telegram that never misses sending you notification whenever I tweet anything substantial (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but the analyses over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram so as to benefit from sophisticated talk and extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals have very clearly turned the corner, and will continue rising even as inflation is to retreat (but remain sticky). This is the main asset class star of 2023.Crude Oil Crude oil really hasn‘t found bottom yet, $66 support discussed early last week, was reached fast. Energy woes aren‘t yet over, but mid year should be approaching $90 again. Short-term outlook though remains problematic even if we do really bounce nicely as black gold usually gets the upcoming recession first.CopperGreat resilience in copper overall, but some further basing seems required. Still, it would be first gold, then silver with copper recovering from any setbacks this year.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 shook off both unemployment claims below expectations and 50bp ECB hike, and the formerly disastrous market breadth got a thorough revamp, leading me warn twice of more intraday upside. 3,945 then indeed failed, and the resulting entry to the European session together with outside markets left bulls in a good place to extend short-term gains (before attending to the bigger factors that make me to keep bearish medium-term outlook). Summing up, the sectoral view is far from conclusive, cyclicals are lagging, and tech with semiconductors rally against the backdrop of yields having trouble to further retreat. Makes for a volatile mix on the opex day. The bulls are fumbling premarket – it‘s a question of time when the imbalances of the daily rally help the bearish outlook take over irrespective of the liquidity thrown at the key problem enabling the banking system issues – risk-free rate of return making for deposit outflows, which in turn necessitate parking underwater Treasuries at the Fed. See chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com to illustrate the S&P 500 internal imbalance (on top of reading the sectoral take within hyperlinks). Read next: Mike Novogratz seems to see some positives in the banking crisis for Bitcoin and gold | FXMAG.COM Gold and silver with miners are to benefit foremost, and I‘m not looking for any meaningful downswing (especially in gold), no matter the mineres performance. Copper is to keep outperforming crude oil – this laggard of the commodity space for months, is still in for some serious battles around $66, justifying my Nov 2022 calls that it‘s worth holding only as part of a portfolio / spread. It‘s clearly afraid of the worsening data leading to Q3 recession. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times – it‘s serving you all already in, coming on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer – I see Telegram as a necessity if you‘re serious about market commentary reliably shown to you), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on, so as to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 stabilized, but in an unconvincing way – the market breadth and sectoral view was wholy unappealing to me. Expecting risk-off rather than risk-on seems more appropriate here. While the recent Fed liquidity moves aren‘t comparable to TARP (in the market reaction following the program announcement, thankfully for us), it‘s still true that I‘m looking for the unappealing fundamentals raising the head increasingly more, to take over (from E to P/E and beyond as you know from reading my work faithfully). Remember that historically 3rd Presidential year marked an important top, which I covered in one of the extensive Jan analysis.The sellers even in the short run are likely to overpower the buy the dippers / no landing / all is well believers. If you‘re looking for sectoral shorting candidates for the longer term, here they are. The incoming unemployment claims and Philly Fed business index underline the economic setup that‘s going to get more acute, and over time result in no doubts about a recession in Q3 2023.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook3,915 remains the „point of control“, but I‘m looking for the bears to keep price action today in the slowly increasing distance to this key figure. 3,945 won‘t be approached again later today, and 3,890 break would be the key bearish objective (not way too hard).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 celebrated inflation data coming in line with expectations yesterday, but the joy proved preditably short-lived as the realization that Fed would still not declare victory over inflation prevailed, and bond markets confirmed it. Junk corporate bonds remain dangerously overstretched here, and a similar fate to EEM or IWM awaits. Note also the disconnect between KRE and XLF, pointing to increasing concentration in banking ahead still. Whenever Treasuries rise, the appeal of risk-free rate of return decreases, and deposit outflows take it on the chin – conveersely as we see today Credit Suisse in the spotlight again, that‘s risk-off as much as the upcoming data release with my projections thereof. The fact that USD is waking up – and increasingly more, doesn‘t bode well for stock buyers today. Seems though that the focus now is on banking facilitated rush into dollars – ignoring PPI coming in better than expected as that together with manufacturing and retail sales down shows bad data (pointing to inevitability of recession, disproving the no landing thesis as a minimum) being correctly assessed as more important that misguided bets on the Fed not tightening even 25bp next. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). Read next: The year-to-date trend for green cryptos remains very bullish. ADA has propelled 32%, and DOT witnessed a 37% surge, just to name a few| FXMAG.COM Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are to keep increasingly turning, and would recover from any hits due to liquidity / solvency doubts washing across the US shores. Crude Oil Crude oil hasn‘t found bottom yet, and after $71 break, the next strong support would be $66 – black gold is reacting to unexpected deterioration in economic prospects, to signs of upcoming recession. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 enjoyed a wild ride yesterday that subscribers did capitalize on intraday, and the key move was in the bond markets as these started requesting the Fed eases practically right away. Unsurprisingly, this helped propel precious metals (seismic change, fundamental catalyst with all the new liquidity) higher, and stocks joined with a fine intraday reversal. The 2y yield sharply plunged to 4% only in what amounts the fastest decline since Oct 1987, and we know what happened then . Even if such as outcome isn‘t on the table now any time soon, I would add that it‘s needless to say, the unjustifiably easy financial conditions have sharply tightened over the last couple of days… Let‘s talk CPI, the key event of today – my expectations turned out on the hotter side, and both the headline and core CPI came in (YoY) in line with expectations, which takes the spotlight off the Fed‘s inflation fighting focus. Nonetheless, I‘m looking for a relatively lean day ahead (futures are now roughly at 3,935) as the formidable 3,945 – 3,958 resistance zone looms (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) and can‘t be beaten unless HYG keeps and extends intraday gains, and crude oil (back towards $76) with copper ($4.08 at least) peek higher as well today. I‘m not worried about precious metals here at all. Read next: US CPI inflation hits 0.4%. Inflation data didn't affect currency market significantly | FXMAG.COM Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 gave up the two opening rebounds as the SVIB meeting FDIC – and the contagion fears – hit, forcing a very sharp reversal in short-term yields, with 25bp Mar rate hike now being the base scenario. The bank run fears are overdone (unfounded) and should result in dialing back the hammering in my view, with the real problem being old fashioned deposit outflows as risk-free rate of return (in CDs, T-Bills and money market funds that ultimately park reserves at the Fed whenever short-dated Treasuries are in short supply), and no other problems are immediately palpable as the zombification and crowding out of productive investments by rates too low for too long, would be only painfully and slowly unwound. To be clear, deposits outflow is unprecedented on a year on year basis, presenting serious challenges for the banking system. The 2.5% deposit outflow figure translates into contraction of bank assets (forced sales to pay depositors), the key among which is Treasuries. That‘s one less buyer when the Fed and foreigners are stepping back, giving rise to the ultimate assumption that the Fed would be forced to act as a buyer of last resort (this helps explain the first swallow, powerful gold rally Friday outshining silver and miners). The Fed and Treasury‘s solution? Open discount window, new emergency lending facility, new funding program. While this isn‘t bailing out shareholders, it‘s about making sure (also uninsured) depositors are kept whole. It‘s likely this will further concentrate the banking sector – it‘s not about recapitalizing banks, but about them not having to recognize losses stemming from rates going up on their now underwater Treasuries (bought when rates were essentially zero). These steps do manage to pevent contagion fears that I was clear on the weekend that they weren‘t on the table in the first place (that was before the Signature Bank). Importantly, this is no bail-in, and even though there could – and down the road would if the Fed persists in rate raising – be more causualties showing up months down the road. The current moves are in effect similar to the Fed in Sep 2019 ensuring enough dollars in the US banking system during the repo crisis. Perhaps even the S/L crisis of 1989 – this is about providing enough liquidity to the system to ride out the storm caused by the fastest rate raising cycle since the mid 1990s. It‘s a bet on the Fed getting some kind of a better grip on inflation just in time before the costs of yesterday‘s moves start accruing. It buys short-term time, but spreads the pain long-term. It also raises justified question marks over the Fed‘s tightening (rate raising and balance sheet shrinking) – and that‘s what gold and silver are reflecting with their 1.2%, resp. 1.7% premarket upswings (at the moment of writing these lines), with the dollar pointing unsurprisingly lower. That‘s precisely the kind of real assets‘ reaction when these recognize that the long-term costs recognition has been kicked down the road as the proverbial can. Read next: To Protect Customer Deposit, SVB UK Will Be Sold To HSBC, The Food Crisis Is Getting Worse| FXMAG.COM There are both similarities and dissimilarities to the 2008 environment, the chief of which is headline sensitivity, and the high propensity to buy the rumor sell the news reactions, to be manifested increasingly more down the road. S&P 500 got right to the target I announced still on Sunday. Very happy it‘s working out for you so well! Meanwhile, LEIs are still falling, savings rate has turned south, unemployment claims are slowly picking up, and earnings recession with its outlook hasn‘t been properly discounted by the markets – making me to keep betting on a mild recession, probably starting in Q3 2023 after all. Then, look for serious cracks in the job market and earnings to manifest, rendering any discussion whether we‘re entering a / in recession, moot. Credit card usage going up, is another hallmark of approaching recession, by the way. All of this makes for a dicey stock market environment with little upside potential, but at the same time bears can‘t count with outsized gains, because any retreat in inflation (hello, Tue CPI) would be positive for stocks. The bar with 6% YoY expected is arguably set too low, and even if my figure of 6.6% isn‘t reached by 0.2 or 0.3%, it won‘t probably trigger any S&P 500 fireworks to speak of. I hope you checked the hyperlinks presented above for full picture as to my analytical take and expectations with reasoning. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook 3,915 is the „point of control“, and it would be conquered eventually before the downswing continues in earnest. So will the 3,945 – 3,958 zone be tested (just happened in premarket) – the upside remains limited and even if the coming around 2 months would be a trading range as slowing inflation and calls for Fed pivot (even interpreting yesterday‘s policy moves as in effect one) take hold, the poor fundamental outlook would eventually prevail in 2H 2023. Credit Markets The risk-off turn in credit markets continued on steroids, and is likely to be somewhat dialed back right next as markets realize there is no contagion to be afraid of right now. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 not only refused to rally, but crashed on high volume driven by banking sector (news and regional banks). Even some tech names ripe for a downswing joined – not only that 3,958 was broken, but so was the next 3,910 key support. Seeing the overnight action made me a bit cautious, but from a swing trading point of view, it had been worth waiting for the probably hot NFPs figure (regardless of the Challenger ones showing progressing weakness) – even if the initial reaction to a strong figure had gone in the opposite direction, I expect the sellers to come and battle it out today still. Worse risk – especially given the bearish factor of ever shrinking liquidity (M2 money supply) – is what happens regarding any SVIB bailout rumor mill. Medium-term, the table is set, and Powell has been clear on inflation fight, and such a guessing game as we‘re witnessing today, really needn‘t have played out this much. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook 3,915 is the „point of control“ switching the daily outlook back towards the bears as regards momentum. The 3,945 – 3,958 zone must hold, and the latest moves are highly encouraging for the bears today already. Read next: Binance has proven to be a more trusted player in this space than 99% of other crypto companies | FXMAG.COM Credit Markets The risk-off turn in credit markets should continue, and that‘s most essential for stock market bears even as TLT is predictably treading water for now. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 semi reversed yesterday, but the bounce left quite something to be desired. The premarket moves were promising, and unemployment claims behaving (I look for these to start rising later during Mar and Apr) was all that was required for a daily ES outlook resulting in 3,980 break. Instead, those 211K (essentially my prediction) are being hesitantly taken as if leading to Fed dialing back tightening – nothing can be further from the truth as Powell made clear that the costs of not fighting inflation are greater than those of fighting inflation. No, short-term yields haven‘t yet peaked, and I‘m unmoved by Bank of Canada (often the bellwether as it was among the first CBs to embark on tightening) pausing its hikes. Read next: A number of analysts including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are suggesting Oil prices could move north of $90.00 this year | FXMAG.COM Stocks are thus facing 4,015 resistance, and I‘m not looking for a bearish day today really. Any fine upper knot on solid volume (approximating Monday) ahead of tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls (lagging indicator unlike unemployment claims) in S&P 500, is more than welcome today as opposed to dealing with 4,045 again on daily tech and financials joint strength (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 duly dived on hawkish Powell – the turning point predicted in Monday‘s extensive analysis. What‘s in store for today?More of Powell testimony and job openings to reveal no immediate recession, and together with Friday‘s non-farm payrolls spurring (reconfirming) the newly elevated terminal Fed funds rate.This translated into a fine risk-off turn yesterday with financials confirming and tech joining in the decline. There wasn‘t even a dead cat bounce in the aftermarket, and the premarket struggles go on.Summing up, dead cat bounce is unlikely to prove as anything more than a failed attempt to reassume initiative even if by some miracle Powell wouldn‘t sound as harsh today as the terminal Fed funds rate reappraisal is generating welcome volatility.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAnd we got that one more day of selling. All the chips are in place for a downside surprise – timing is the only question. Not that the catalysts amply described in today’s analytical intro, would be missing. Key levels for today are 4,015 defence with a highly desirable break of 3,980 followed by 3,958 (bridge too far for today definitely and tomorrow probably).Credit MarketsBonds are unlikely to offer more than a temporary respite in the regained risk-off posture. TLT would hold up relatively best, for these reasons given. Flight to safety, recession and tightening.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 offered a fine session to those looking for the daily advance to be dialed back. We‘ve seen another weak push higher premarket.that still respected my key 4,065 – 4,080 zone. As I outlined in yesterday‘s very extensive analysis, it‘s about Powell delivering upon the bare minimum bond market expectations or not (short end of the curve)– all within the context of a larger stock bear market.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookModest upswing rejection, leaving one more day of selling to be desired. Powell can deliver that catalyst, and keep it alive by leaving enough of tightening guessing room available for non-farm payrolls and CPI. 4,015 would be a support harder to break.Credit MarketsAlso this bond market reversal needs more selling, especially on the junk end. The TLT move by itself is though promising enough. Risk-off winds howling in the distance.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 dealt with the many non-confirmations raising eyebrows, and the bulls can and do enter new week on a stronger than expected note (in line with Friday‘s very short-term call). So what has changed and what has not? Make sure to check the linked tweets and threads below for full understanding.The macroeconomic landscape that is ruling out new bull market, stands against a steep rebound before the following three key events get out of the way. First it‘s the Powell testimony Tuesday and Wednesday where reiteration of rate raising intent bringing up the assigned probability of Mar 50bp, and no cuts this year (with perhaps Fed funds rate terminal being now 5.25 – 5.50%, which isn‘t in my view all that much by the way), would do the trick and dial back the buyers‘ enthusiasm to some degree.Second, non-farm payrolls Friday would reveal still reasonably robust (around 265K, which is above expectations) jobs market, feeding into rate hiking fears as the Fed hawkishness guessing game continues with each key incoming data point.Third, that would be CPI on Tuesday 14th (6.6% year on year probably, and core CPI month on month 0.5% probably) – again no respite in the inflation fight, whether headline or core. The key difference between summer 2022 (summer of confidence in the Fed getting ahead in the inflation fight and of fears of U.S. economy entering recession any-day-now before LEIs even properly turned) and now, is that bonds are these days requesting that the Fed hikes by 50bp in Mar as the short end of the curve keeps the yield curve increasingly inverted.Summing up, not that bonds and various yield spreads would be screaming the end of the downswing and associated volatility. It would though be the Mar FOMC on Wed 22nd that would – again unfortunately – bring only 25bp rate hike, and not 50bp which would have been more appropriate for Jan as well. That means remaining in the 5.25 – 5.50% Fed funds rate terminal and not surprising the markets as e.g. Barkin would like to.The Fed would prefer to go slow (enough to spur relief rally in stocks on that decision announcement) in taking rates (slightly) restrictive (and what‘s the restrictive level, is a process of discovery), and keep them there long enough in the hopes of avoiding recession, which would bring about pressure to cut rates again, undoing the painstaking and belated rate raising cycle in the fight against inflation and inflation expectations becoming unanchored. Thankfully, the job market would remain resilient during the upcoming downturn, and I am not looking for a lot more that 4.5% unemployment rate. I hope you‘ve checked the above links for thorough views beyond the recession progress, and why I‘m not looking for anything overly severe – the consumer is strong thanks to excess savings and insulation from rising rates especially on the mortgage front. The mild recession arriving still though has to be recognized by the markets, months down the road.At the same time, earnings downgrades have to get really discounted still – and whenever E falls, we get P/E ratio (the valuations) compressed, which is why I‘m looking for 3,8xxs as a minimum.Still, we‘re in for a decade of wild bull and bear markets as I told you mid Apr 2022 already.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookPrices won’t really drop much from here – Friday’s close was strong, and allows for extension into the critical 4,065 – 4,080 zone. On Powell, that move would get checked – for Monday, I’m not looking for a break below 3,980 let alone 4,015 – bonds are just too strong on a short-term basis for that.Gold, Silver and MinersThat’s four days of promising price action in a row – and the successfully floated Fed dovish turn (mis)perception keeps of course helping precious metals. The upper knot doesn’t mark the ultimate upside rejection within this brief upswing, which would feel as painfully bidding its time in going nowhere. Still, 2023 would be a fine year for the metals – what’s long-term key, is the metals’ resilience to the USD throughout 2022. Now on the return of inflation, things will get brighter when it becomes clear the Fed isn’t moving fast enough based on market dictates such as 50bp in Mar.Crude OilCrude oil remains well bid indeed, and will go over $90 before the summer driving season and towards $100 in 2H 2023 again, beyond reasons given in the caption. Natgas was stopped at $3 as I predicted, and now is -12% down. Copper is building a fine base above $4, and would be an earliest beneficiary when China pulls off the reflation attempted – even if it doesn’t throw a major stimulus party, and would be satistifed with 5% GDP growth. It’ll take a while, but it’ll make commodity markets (beyond oil and copper) hungry.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 duly took the bearish unemployment claims message (boom territory around 200K translated into more tightening pressure), and traded well below the key 3,955 level – until the Bostic (no FOMC voter) struck. Some hawkish lines mixed with key allusion of summer hiking pause got the bears scared, ushering in a little short squeeze with power to reach higher still This risk-on turn is though built on poor foundations, from weak market breadth, bond volume not surging, spurious USD, tech and cyclicals (financials) action that relegate meaningful resolutions to next.week. Suffice to say, I‘m not looking for bullish medium-term result, and continue expecting the 200-day moving average in ES_F to break to the downside. Worth noting that apart from Sweden and Europe in general, the economic outlook (infation and recession equalling stagflation) keeps progressively darkening – now add in ECB talk of 4% terminal rate (hello BoJ defending 0.5% JGB yield), and upcoming ISM services PMI that won‘t be a scoop, and will instead confirm my notion of US LEIs being still far away from bottoming, i.e. the stock market bear continuing in spite of the positive S&P 500 showing ahead today (as per both progress tweets in one, linked). I‘m opening today‘s analysis with many more markets covered than the following two charts would indicate, to everyone. Have a great, calm and fullfilling weekend! Read next: USD/JPY Pair Comes Under Some Selling Pressure, EUR/USD Holds Above 1.06 While GBP/USD Remains Below 1.20| FXMAG.COM Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Prices won’t drop below 3,955 today as the slow grilling of the bears has to continue for a while longer. 3,980 target reached – not even 4,015 (the location of more serious battle) would change the picture. Real estate, manufacturing, earnings and employment would keep getting it, and decreasing liquidity would keep biting. Only below 3,910, the pace of decline quickens – before that, it’s tug of war with different variations of Fed pivot playing out – 3,860s then being the accelerator, but we’re still weeks away from that figure as decent bond market underperformance has to return, especially on the junk bonds side. Precious Metals, Copper and Oil That’s three days of promising price action in a row – and the successfully floated Fed dovish turn (mis)perception would only help precious metals. What’s long-term key, is though the metals’ resilience to the USD upswing (around those 20% through to peak), and that’s going to continue even when liquidity is being withdrawn (making for gold to do better than silver). Copper remains most resilient of the real assets crowd I’m covering, no change since those late 2022 articles trumping the red metal. That goes beyond China credit and economic activity expansion that’s underpinning crude oil even as it has to pause around $78 on totally unconvincing volume yesterday – it’ll be quite a feat to break again above the key $82.50. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 refused yet another intraday rebound attempt, and closed around my 3,955 level, which would be broken through on a closing basis today. And the catalyst would of course be unemployment claims via tightening– the bulls will have nothing today to run on.Add some details about job market resilience and prospects, and you have more ingredients to usher in more downside in stocks as the rally of the laggards gets reversed, and behemoths start participating in the decline. Don‘t forget about the steep yield curve inversion and still declining LEIs, which together with disappearing liquidity and bank lending standards tightening will usher in recession with all its accompanying early hallmarks such as earnings downgrades, bankrupties rising, slower business formation, getting behind on payments of all kinds etc.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersThe daily upswing reflects waning USD momentum over the last couple of days, and even if the volume is enouraging, this isn’t the end of PMs woes – the short end of the curve rising will propel the dollar higher still, making for a rickety ride in copper as well.Crude OilCrude oil continues doing fine as regards the sequence of strong supports - $71-73, then $76, and finally it’s the tough $78-80 resistance which needs an $82.50 clearance to the upside. As written yesterday, the time for a washout in energy, has grown distant.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 just couldn‘t keep its head above water, and those rips were sold before the close, opening the door to my key 3,980 level. And that was consumer confidence only day, which has shown that people don‘t like that much being squeezed by inflation and having to increase savings while real personal income isn‘t going anywhere. The bulls found the news of course impossible to run with – well, I say bulls, but more correctly that should read as buy the dippers, i.e. those on the lookout for an elusive rebound.And elusive it would be no matter the good data from China with positive consequences down the road that were again sold into, because today is the manufacturing PMI – and stocks are appropriately positioned equals sliding into the data release (the telltale sign why explained in the chart annotation – chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). Breaking below 3,955 is the objective as the bears are aiming next (before Friday is over) towards the 3,910 strong support.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 formed a fine bull trap – the intraday reversal making selling into worthwhile. How about today, given that bonds didn‘t exactly crater into Monday‘s close?Premarket European session didn‘t disappoint me, and the prospects of a sustainable rebound today look shaky at best. The upcoming consumer confidence would be propped by the ability to withstand inflation through savings, access to credit and continued debt load relative serviceability.Reminder from yesterday‘s key analysis before heading for the rich daily chart section:(…) Tuesday‘s consumer confidence data are likely not to disappoint as personal savings rate had been recently revised upwards (4.7%), suggesting that the consumer still has the wiggle room to withstand inflation. Remember when I was telling you last year that consumer strength would be the defining factor in the shape of the upcoming recession – and contrast that with what we have seen play out in the markets in only the last couple of weeks – from hard to soft landing, then the no landing came (as if strong Jan data in non-farm payrolls and housing not tanking on, are to be proven as little more than a year entry oddity and brief respite).Seriously, I expect the job market to start noticeably deteriorating (e.g. in unemployment claims) from Mar onwards, and the ongoing mortgage rates of 7% to snuff out the temporary housing stabilization. Circling back to the consumer, retail sales for now wouldn‘t be deteriorating either – while rising in nominal terms, they had been really flat in real terms since mid 2021, revealing the spending growth to be of merely inflationary nature.So, that‘s Tuesday and consumer confidence which still shouldn‘t tank the markets – regardless of the woeful and nonchalantly ignored bond market performance over the recent weeks (these rates would keep biting even more, especially on the short end).The latter half of this week doesn‘t look to be promising for stock bulls though – especially the manufacturing, and to a lesser degree services PMIs, are to reveal recessionary clues impossible to ignore. Remember the sequence of recession countdown and progression – first real estate going down (check), manufacturing down (check), services with a lag (check), inflation peaking (sure the revisions and calculation „revamps“ helped here), and finally job market layoffs spreading (wait for Mar / Apr) together with earnings coming in weak (check) forcing sigtnificant earnings downgradeds for the quarters ahead (still to come, seriously starting late Q2 even as modest earnings recession has already arrived, and the low $180s EPS need solid downgrading).Plenty to look for as stocks readjust to new economic realities!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals haven’t yet found a bottom – gold and miners daily upswing is a mere pause, which would be extended by USD relief rally topping out. We aren’t there yet, and gold and silver just can’t sniff out the nonexistnt Fed pivot till the summer short-term yields peak (best case scenario).CopperCopper acts still resilient, and $3.70 strong support may not come into play fast at all as stockpile fundamentals with China on top, win out. The same would support oil into the high $70s and you might have benefited from the bullish natgas call on Twitter too. The time for washouts in energy, seems over.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 declined on strong core PCE data, but I doubted the opening gloom, and favored a positive move during the regular session. In spite of the disastrous market breadth (advance-decline line and advance-decline volume), Monday would bring a tired continuation of the upswing into 3,980 – 4,010s zone, overcoming which with a close near 4,045, doesn‘t look likely given what‘s in store this week. Tuesday‘s consumer confidence data are likely not to disappoint as personal savings rate had been recently revised upwards (4.7%), suggesting that the consumer still has the wiggle room to withstand inflation. Remember when I was telling you last year that consumer strength would be the defining factor in the shape of the upcoming recession – and contrast that with what we have seen play out in the markets in only the last couple of weeks – from hard to soft landing, then the no landing came (as if strong Jan data in non-farm payrolls and housing not tanking on, are to be proven as little more than a year entry oddity and brief respite). Seriously, I expect the job market to start noticeably deteriorating (e.g. in unemployment claims) from Mar onwards, and the ongoing mortgage rates of 7% to snuff out the temporary housing stabilization. Circling back to the consumer, retail sales for now wouldn‘t be deteriorating either – while rising in nominal terms, they had been really flat in real terms since mid 2021, revealing the spending growth to be of merely inflationary nature. So, that‘s Tuesday and consumer confidence which still shouldn‘t tank the markets – regardless of the woeful and nonchalantly ignored bond market performance over the recent weeks (these rates would keep biting even more, especially on the short end). The latter half of this week doesn‘t look to be promising for stock bulls though – especially the manufacturing, and to a lesser degree services PMIs, are to reveal recessionary clues impossible to ignore. Remember the sequence of recession countdown and progression – first real estate going down (check), manufacturing down (check), services with a lag (check), inflation peaking (sure the revisions and calculation „revamps“ helped here), and finally job market layoffs spreading (wait for Mar / Apr) together with earnings coming in weak (check) forcing sigtnificant earnings downgradeds for the quarters ahead (still to come, seriously starting late Q2 even as modest earnings recession has already arrived, and the low $180s EPS need solid downgrading). Plenty to look for as stocks readjust to new economic realities! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook 4,015 will be again a tough nut to crack as the base for S&P 500 advance is so weak after Friday, but can carry the buyers a bit forward from the roughly 3,980 area. The low volume speaks to me of non-confirmation, so the rebound in line with the macroeconomic introduction in the opening part of today’s analysis, and is to be short-lived. Credit Markets No, this “risk-on” rebound doesn’t count to me as reversal – the pressure from the short-end of the curve is to keep increasing (just have a look at last week’s extensive analysis aptly called Fuse Has Been Lit. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 held in the 3,980 – 4,015 range yesterday, namely having defended the 3,980 support, and making it back above 4,015 solidly. The trip towards 4,045 had though been cancelled a bit too abruptly as those believing in Fed‘s no / soft landing fantasies while financial conditions continue inordinately easing in the face of central bank tightening left and right. Last week‘s PPI and naturally also the calculation changes to CPI, were a mere preview as much as this week‘s data from Sweden. Today‘s core PCE (the measure that the Fed places solid emphasis on) came truly outside the expected range – and that triggers yet another immediate and significant change of market expectations as to the degree of Fed tightening ahead regardless of how pressed the consumer or job market get.That means 3,980 is now overhead resistance in S&P 500, and 3,910 can be easily reached either today or on Monday as another plunge in bonds looms, and copper with silver confirm.Key chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com), universally relevant is bonds (together with the dollar that should close at at least 105.40 today so as to confirm the risk-off shift as likely to continue through Monday on account of the sheer power of newly recognizing perhaps even 50bp in Mar with two more hikes before Jun is over (short end of the curve never lies), and Fed funds rate really closer to 6% than 5.50%, the latter having seemed outrageous as late as only one week ago).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 couldn‘t convincingly break below 4,015 and reach first 3,980s and then towards 3,965. Fed minutes merely reinforced the tighening ideas amid decreasing voice of „no landing“ and „disinflation“ narratives as amply described in Tuesday‘s key analysis. NVDA earnings marvellously spurred erasure of the rightful slide on Fed minutes, Today‘s incoming data also confirm the Fed has further room to go in the short term before the 2H 2023 contraction arrives.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver don’t look fine here, and more time in carving out sustainable local bottom, is required. If I were to allocate fresh money to the sector as a buyer, I would wait.Crude OilOil looks troubled in the short-term still, no traction from China reopening or chiefly those credit infusions just yet. The longer it stays close to $71 - $73, the more concerning it becomes.CopperCopper keeps showing the way, boding well for other real assets – more in the months rather than in the weeks ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued non-stop to the downside – the little dead cat bounce didn‘t last. Unless HYG returns solidly above its 200-day moving average while TLT at least mirrors that move, the odds of a credible stock market reversal conquering for starters 4,015 again, are low. The combination of economic data with tightening central banks, is to keep exerting pressure, keeping a lid on any meaningful rally attempt in stocks. The bears are in the driver‘s seat, and as Q1 and Q2 would bring sizable declines well into 3,8xx to start with, it‘s inconsequential whether 4,045 gets retraced in the days to come, or not – and not that the market setup would favor that outcome today. 4,015 is a major support, breaking which decisively would take a while – and is more likely to come before the bulls can recapture 4,060s (another major resistance zone), Bonds thus far don‘t react to approaching recession through retreat in yields – and correctly so as the ccontraction isn‘t knocking on the door (still, about to come only in late Q2), and central bank tightening is back in high gear. Read next: It (USA) rather seems rational to see reading even below 0% in the Q1 with the lowest point in the late Q2 of 2023 | FXMAG.COM Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 didn‘t surprise, and delivered the dead cat bounce that I was looking for at the onset of Friday:(…) We‘re in for a dead cat bounce attempt today – even if import prices don‘t point to yet another source of quickening domestic inflation, the quickening export prices pace reveals that U.S. inflation is being also directly (not just via exchange rates) exported. The point is how far it can carry the stock buyers, and whether the turn in bonds can be classified as risk-on. It has the potential to turn into risk-on retracement of the S&P 500 downswing as Nasdaq can kick in (tech largely missed Friday‘s retreat in yields, still digesting Mester and Bullard talk of 5.50%). Yes, it‘s all a play of yields and yields differentials when it comes to the much touted emergning markets story at the beginning of 2023 – Fed stepping up to the tightening plate as inflation data confirmed my calls of sticky and returning inflation, is a game changer for the greenback too (relief rally goes on, and the world reserve currency wouldn‘t be as weak in 2023 as the hype would have you believe).More tightening deals with the „no landing“ thesis (i.e. that recession has been avoided and the economy would just continue expanding as the job market is still largely unscathed) that markets were carried away with earlier in the week – it works to tighten financial conditions, pressure real estate a lot more, increase the cost of capital (hitting tech hard – this has to still play out, e.g. around NVDA earnings), and decrease disposable income, which would sooner or later show up in retail sales, but for now is masked by still good consumer debt serviceability.All in all, the Fed is pausing later rather than sooner – and that‘s what markets started discounting only on the PPI data arrival. Coupled with positive data from Europe and continued focus on tightening around the world, the pressure on stock prices and valuations vis-a-vis what‘s risk-free, grows already premarket on PMI data. Fed funds rate is still far from observing the Taylor rule, and I doubt the Fed can get rates there, let alone to 6%+ before short-term bond yields top out in summer.This alone has powerful consequences for growth stocks, which are set to face a major rotation out of later this year. For now, they are cushioned by yields trying to retreat on approaching recession, but with the Fed staying the hawkish course (this force is to win out, careful bond bulls), tech would undeniably suffer. These stocks can run only so far when the focus isn‘t on immediate profitability and without the risk-free Treasuries return so appealing (T-bills are at 5% now, making it an interesting 2023 proposition for those unwilling to go long equities on a long-term basis).Let‘s bring up Friday‘s analysis:(…) While inflation returning is bullish real assets, the USD upswing and rising rates (now practically comparable to the S&P 500 earnings yield – redefining what‘s risk-free and overpriced) serve as a powerful drag on especially precious metals (no local bottom there – as per prior Thursday‘s premium analysis, the short-term tune has changed, and it would take many weeks to see one), and copper amid all the supply deficits pointing to inflation‘s resurgence, won‘t save the day.A lot of deleveraging ahead still as the overly loose financial conditions get tightened – both by the Fed and commercial banks. Don‘t forget the Treasury general account and repo facilities when assessing conditions. What‘s the terminal Fed funds rate, is being redefined from 5.50% upwards, and the yields differential to the rest of the world, is responsible for the USD upswing. Hear that sucking sound of liquidity (to still) disappear!Buy the dippers will try again, and would struggle at 4,095 – 4,105 area – doubtful they can get there today. Market breadth and volatility are rather silently supporting the topping process as having been well underway already, and one that wouldn‘t be developing in a one way fashion. 4,040s would take time to break, and require continued leading weakness in the riskiest of bonds, the junk ones. We‘re getting there, and getting today‘s options expiry volatility out of the way, would be very constructive for the bears.All those earnings to disappoint, layoffs to spread, and recession arrival quickened by more hikes and balance sheet shrinking, will power the coming very significant stocks decline. And precious metals refusing to keep declining more, would a sign we‘re getting ready to rally, not just in real assets but including in stocks.Of course, that‘s a long-term perspective – one measured in months rather than weeks.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s analysis is exceptionally open freely in full to see what subscribers get.S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,095 – 4,105 is the daily target for the bulls to overcome, but I see them struggling and without real initiative. I doubt they can make it as far as 4,150 area during this week at all. The ingredients for a bond market rally aren’t there, and rotation into cyclicals won’t be strong enough to fuel a series of 1%+ daily reversal indefinitely. Bears though need to be patient in grinding lower – the 4,040s area would take some work to break, but it’ll give in. The conditions for a powerful decline to 4,010s and couple of hundreds of points below, are in place, the fuse has been lit.Credit MarketsBonds are to temporarily support the rebound attempt in stocks, but their underperfomance for at least two last weeks (if you don’t look at longer time series) is out in the open, visible to the naked eye, just as much as VIX waking up.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are trying to stabilize, and would welcome some bond market strength. The recent downswing has been amplified by the dollar waking up, and its more range bound action medium-term (once the new hawkishness gets absorbed), would bring relief to the metals, as these would rise on inflation and recession themes. Best case scenario is consolidation in time rather than price for the metals here, with silver defending the 200-day moving average.Crude OilOil is to recover not only thanks to China moves, and together with services inflation, and the job market remaining more resilient than during prior recessions, would fuel the inflation woes, forcing the Fed to tighten really above 5.50% in the end. The sectoral fundamentals are bullish, and recession isn‘t knocking on the door in the least yet (that would happen late Q2 2023). Of course, copper would lead oil higher.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 did marvellously slide on poor PPI data reinforcing my so frequently raised sticky inflation making a return. For all the goods inflation retreat, the services one is the one not to budge easily. And the Fed knows that doesn‘t exactly mean disinflation, which is why the talk of 50bp hike in Mar surfaced. The intraday solid buy the dip attempt, has fizzled out, and the continued rise in yields across the board fueled overnight stock market decline as much as the USD relief rally continuation. While inflation returning is bullish real assets, the USD upswing and rising rates (now practically comparable to the S&P 500 earnings yield – redefining what‘s risk-free and overpriced) serve as a powerful drag on especially precious metals (no local bottom there – as per prior Thursday‘s premium analysis, the short-term tune has changed, and it would take many weeks to see one), and copper amid all the supply deficits pointing to inflation‘s resurgence, won‘t save the day. A lot of deleveraging ahead still as the overly loose financial conditions get tightened – both by the Fed and commercial banks. Don‘t forget the Treasury general account and repo facilities when assessing conditions. What‘s the terminal Fed funds rate, is being redefined from 5.50% upwards, and the yields differential to the rest of the world, is responsible for the USD upswing. Hear that sucking sound of liquidity (to still) disappear! We‘re in for a dead cat bounce attempt today – even if import prices don‘t point to yet another source of quickening domestic inflation, the quickening export prices pace reveals that U.S. inflation is being also directly (not just via exchange rates) exported. Buy the dippers will try again, and would struggle at 4,095 – 4,105 area – doubtful they can get there today. Market breadth and volatility are rather silently supporting the topping process as having been well underway already, and one that wouldn‘t be developing in a one way fashion. 4,040s would take time to break, and require continued leading weakness in the riskiest of bonds, the junk ones. We‘re getting there, and getting today‘s options expiry volatility out of the way, would be very constructive for the bears. Read next: UK Retail sales: Retail sales have been falling all last year, amid rising inflation, but they rose in October 2022 and provided significant support for the index | FXMAG.COM All those earnings to disappoint, layoffs to spread, and recession arrival quickened by more hikes and balance sheet shrinking, will power the coming very significant stocks decline. And precious metals refusing to keep declining more, would a sign we‘re getting ready to rally, not just in real assets but including in stocks. Of course, that‘s a long-term perspective – one measured in months rather than weeks. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 rally yesterday was totally unconvincing, and allowed for most opportune short positions initiation. Combined with my increasingly bearish calls for stocks to roll over, today is one of those days to celebrate. The analysis today will be therefore brief, and presenting the call for stocks to roll over late yesterday, S&P 500 topping out below 4,300, and positioning going into today‘s PPI, housing and unemployment data. What a stagflation combo bringing up 50bp Mar talk on the table! The bears aren‘t likely to waste this chance, and a solid day in the red awaits. Yesterday‘s signs were clear (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com), and real assets are to hold their ground increasingly better over time. Refresh your 1970s studies or memories even if not first hand, as these will keep serving you well! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Read next: Judging from FxPro analyst's words, the US economy is doing well, but... | FXMAG.COM Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 did manage with a spike, even on CPI slightly above expectations My 4,187 resistance wasn‘t though overcome, not even temporarily – the appreciation of Fed having to remain (more) hawkish (than earlier and mistakenly anticipated by the markets) in its fight especially against services inflation, took its toll. Yet the bears were twice rejected at my 4,128 level, HYG had a hard time closing positive, and market breadth was unconvincing.This all points to selling into strength, and risk-off ready to progressively raise its head in the weeks ahead, which is in line with the USD relief rally as late 2023 rate cuts idea is melting away just as much as disinflation and soft landing. The Fed has no choice but to remain as stubborn as can be, even if 2-year yield would peak in several months (that‘s summer). Services inflation is simply much tougher to beat than goods one, and that sends a clear message as regards rising unemployment in the months to come. Recession fears would be on full display by then.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,128 followed by 4,093 are the supports to watch – given USD relief rally continuation in plain sight, stocks would suffer just as real assets (those to a generally larger extent). Rise in yields would be countered by approaching recession, temporarily. Topping process in stocks well underway.Credit MarketsBonds are still resisting the hawkish Fed – but I’m looking for risk-off posture to win in the not too distant future (consequences for paper assets of course too). Tomorrow’s PPI data will help illustrate the point of sticky inflation, and of more inflation in the pipeline to hit CPI still. Just imagine what yesterday’s figure would have been without a calculation change and revisions...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 showed promising intraday performance, but the posture somewhat deteriorated before the close as evaporating risk-on posture in bonds got into spotlight. The ground is being prepared for as positive CPI figure as possible, and the following three tweet thread neatly sums up my expectations going into the announcement.Of course, I‘ll be covering the market moves in real time on Twitter!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,093 followed by 4,128 have turned into supports, and the bulls can be relied to reach over 4,187 today. All that’s required is a not too hot CPI figure, which is virtually guaranteed.. The following question is where and how the buying spree stops as I don’t look for it to be confirmed in bonds or currencies.Credit MarketsBonds aren’t firm about rallying, and stocks can’t do without their support. The short end of the curve is back rising (2-y yield), and has yet to take its toll on stocks – fuelled by deteriorating earnings and worsening job market.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 partially recovered from Thursday‘s setback, but the bulls didn‘t get back to the driver‘s seat. Market breadth improved though sufficiently, and all would look fine unless you would notice the tech leading to the downside, financials with Russell 2000 sputtering, and… the wildly non-confirming bond market.Rising yields haven‘t woken up the dollar that‘s readying a break above 130.50 – more rate hikes and intention to keep rates restrictive for longer (that‘s three 25bp hikes for 2023 taking Fed funds rate from current 4.75% to below 5.25%), preemting easing of monetary policy as previously and too optimistically anticipated by markets, during late 2023. At the same time, markets are positioning for Fed funds rate at 6%, which would be a major surprise for risk assets. The prevailing narrative is of decelerating inflation, but I wonder for how many readings more would markets be satisfied with the downside momentum. Odds are that Tuesday‘s figure wouldn‘t be a positive surprise, to put it mildly – but the change in calculation methodology virtually guarantees an easy time even if energy and used car prices aren’t exactly in a decline mode, and core inflation data remain rather resilient.This all ties in well with sticky inflation and my call for its return later in 2023. Similarly the job market is to soon start increase in unemployment – the recent employment gains were mostly in the lower paying end while tech layoffs continue, so far limited to tech only. The recession countdown is on, and upcoming CPI is to eventually prove a realization of hawkish Fed as right – which the bond market is sensing already, and stocks didn’t get the memo yet. While the new inflation calculation methodology helps (ignore some prior readings revisioned higher, the base effects), I’m not looking for any risk-on spike to last. Ride with caution.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,093 has been overcome on a closing basis, but cryptos and Nasdaq with bonds point to the downswing as likely to continue – it’s stocks that are defying the gravity here. Yet, they can pull it off above this level some more, even approach the 4,128 resistance - but any CPI spike would be sold into rather than sticking.Credit MarketsBonds are positioning for hawkish Fed – not discounting soft landing, no matter the golden cross in stocks. The 200-day moving average is still declining, and the rally has fooled enough buyers already – this isn’t a new bull market.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 didn‘t take well to the dual Swiss (SNB and CS) news with respect to the still too easy financial conditions, regardless of the Fed‘s tightening plans to bring up the Fed funds rate to well over 5%, and keep it there – as they say – for years. Yesterday‘s unemployment claims are already revealing the job market as starting to slow down, and the layoffs would spread beyond tech. Stocks proved the cautious call from the European morning as right, and that got further reflected even before consumer confidence data comes out. I don‘t think that would trigger any game changing rally in stocks today. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Read next: Data This Morning Confirmed The UK Avoided A Recession At The End Of 2022| FXMAG.COM Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bulls lost the benefit of the doubt, and I‘m not looking for any serious retracement of yesterday‘s downside. 4,045 followed by the key 4,010s support is of utmost importance so that the bulls can regroup and surprise on any not hot CPI figure Tuesday. 4,092 seems as a resistance that would prove hard to crack even on Monday. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver aren‘t showing strength, and the short-term hesitation indicates a bit more downswide as very much possible in the short run. With the return of inflation (remember how the prior declines owed much to energy and used car prices), we‘re looking at metals to come back to the spotlight while crude oil returns above $80s with ease and copper maintains $4. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 corrective move indeed ruled yesterday, but no important support was breached on a closing basis. While market breadth is nothing to write home about, and financials daily candle looks ugly, I don‘t see a sharp stock market downswing breaking through yesterday given support levels, as likely or imminent. It was though only oil that took advantage of USD relief rally sputtering – and to a certain degree copper while precious metals remain in wait and see (vulnerable short-term) position. Bonds though favor a risk-on resolution, no matter the creeping in 5.50%+ or even 6% Fed funds rate chatter. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Read next: Craig Erlam about UK inflation: It's expected to fall considerably this year, as per BoE forecasts, but as we've seen over the last 12 months, we live in unpredictable times| FXMAG.COM Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bulls continue having the benefit of the doubt, and will spend little time today defending from selling onslaught. The unemployment claims in and above expectations, for a change – illustrating the slowly darkening job market outlook (where even Powell refuses to consider Jan NFPs on face value in the fight against inflation, knowing full well about those seasonality adjustments), will play into Fed pivot bets and retreat in yields, all supporting stock buyers. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Powell delivered, and didn‘t trip the bulls - S&P 500 merely tried to shake out the weak hands, but you were ready through my habitual live coverage on Twitter, as to what to expect. The premarket consolidation is neither unexpected nor concerning – and market breadth data will catch up, even if only after the consumer confidence data Friday.Inflationary forces are building up, meaning that inflation would return in 2H 2023, and together with deglobalization and friendshoring, this would underpin commodities. The era of cheap labor, cheap commodities and cheap goods, is definitely over. Likewise the secular trend in bonds is for rates to rise (the decade of high inflation and high rates – the commodities and precious metals supercycle), even if these have to retreat somewhat still as the soft landing narrative gives way to the recession one.In place of a longer introductory part today, let‘s rush into the charts while commenting on related markets there – and of course, my Twitter feed is open 24/7! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersThis is a buying opportunity, not a selling one. This dip will be bought, and the current blues won‘t last for weeks without end. Silver especially is getting ahead of itself in declining – the $22 support would hold. Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are another reason why I‘m not looking for any dramatic setback soon.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 refused further decline, but picture is far from impending rebound strength. One though can‘t get rid of the impression from Kashkari‘s speech (the Fed is happy about the marlet reaction to Powell‘s FOMC speech), that this stock market rally isn‘t looked at exactly rhe same way as the summer one. Still, short-term caution rules as real assets haven‘t yet recovered, and the dollar relief rally had been confirmed as having started – I‘m looking for relatively uneventful session prior to Powell‘s yet another speech – speech which would give direction for the remainder of this week, till Friday‘s consumer confidence (yes, unemployment claims are likely to come in strong. Bringing up yesterday‘s extensive analysis: (…) So, stocks are correcting, but the short-term picture is far from clear – while the defensives are refusing to decline, financials haven‘t rolled over yet (and regional banking acts still OK). Neither value nor tech reversed on rising volume, indicating that this storm could be over in a couple of days, no matter the disastrous earnings thus far (yes, AAPL and beyond the tech layoffs) bringing negative surprises to -5.3% so far. Markets aren‘t fearing a hard recession, but stocks are uneasy – in the very short-term.The stunner creeping in is that the Fed somehow pulled it off, that soft landing – and job market data were taken as a proof, which however has consequences for services inflation even commodities, precious metals are nicely consolidating. Had been, till Friday – but that appears as a buying opportunity when deterioration in economic data sends yields and the dollar down. Summing up, I continue to think the soft landing thesis would be disproved by end of Q2 2023, and that a mild recession is ahead. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM Let‘s say that the soft landing calls would come to bite back those acting on them, and that real assets (oil defended the $81-83 zone by the way, and copper is back above $4 – precious metals are waiting for USD and Fed green light, but haven‘t rolled over into a bear) will correspondingly rise once it becomes apparent that the Fed hawkish path of newly three 2023 hikes with deferred easing, isn‘t going to be without consequences / prove doable. The bond market will decide. See you on my feed later today, and throughout for the Powell speech! 4,105 – 3,995 is the key support zone, followed by 4,070 – reaching which would require bond market weakness with junk bonds leading the decline. That‘s not likely to happen now, for I view the consequences of Powell‘s speech to be rather positive for TLT, and not feeding excessively into the USD relief rally (well worth watching it with Bollinger Bands displayed, to see where the low hanging fruit was). Chart courtesy by www.stockcharts.com. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 started a brief correction on NFPs outdoing expectations, with other data confirming job market tightness as much as Dec NFPs upward revision to 260K. The resulting shift in expectations for three Fed rate hikes this year (and of course dialing back bets on those coveted cuts) sent the dollar sharply higher, and real assets down while stocks held up relatively well. Even the „broken“ VIX couldn‘t rise Friday – there is a good enough reason I haven‘t been bringing you volatility and put to call ratio metrics lately.So, stocks are correcting, but the short-term picture is far from clear – while the defensives are refusing to decline, financials haven‘t rolled over yet (and regional banking acts still OK). Neither value nor tech reversed on rising volume, indicating that this storm could be over in a couple of days, no matter the disastrous earnings thus far (yes, AAPL and beyond the tech layoffs) bringing negative surprises to -5.3% so far.Markets aren‘t fearing a hard recession, but stocks are uneasy – in the very shor-term.The stunner creeping in is that the Fed somehow pulled it off, that soft landing – and job market data were taken as a proof, which however has consequences for services inflation even commodities, precious metals are nicely consolidating. Had been, till Friday – but that appears as a buying opportunity when deterioration in economic data sends yields and the dollar down. Summing up, I continue to think the soft landing thesis would be disproved by end of Q2 2023, and that a mild recession is ahead.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookHigher rather than lower 4,140s held, but the dust hasn‘t yet settled. 4,105 – 4,095 is the next good support area as I think breaking back above 4,165 would take a while.Credit MarketsBonds will likely take a while to calm down, but junk corporate ones aren‘t yet leading to the downside. The risk appetite won‘t though return too soon – basing around current levels for today, would be a success.Bitcoin and EthereumEver since I published this weekend crypto chart, prices declined, and are trying to keep the daily bottom in – that would be consistent with stopping Friday‘s risk-on bleeding.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued higher on very good market breadth and with bond market support, but already yesterday I announced I was looking for a NFPs facilitated setback aka daily correction preceded by relatively shallow premarket session as job creation, unemployment rate, participation rate and hours worked all showed that the job market remains tight, spurring fresh bets on hawkish Fed to the delight of dollar bulls. Today‘s analysis will be brief as things have worked pretty fine – and you know I had been very busy this week on Twitter… I‘m so glad to hear how you‘ve been killing it in the markets! Let‘s keep charting our path! Daily supports are the badly test 4,145 followed by 4,085, which the bears would like to see reached today – and I think they can get halfway there today. For next week (not meaning Monday to be clear), we have.4,225 on the upside as the most ambitious target that would provoke a battle to get overcome. Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com. Hop on my Twitter feed and go through some more of the key events shaping up this week, announced as of Tue and today. High standards, transparency and quality of service rule! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

FOMC with S&P 500 turned out precisely as I looked it to, and not even another widely anticipated move (50bp by ECB today), could dampen the risk-on spirits, no matter the very short-term overbought stocks. Smallcaps confirmed, and foremost the bond market did – it‘s risk-on still, we haven‘t made the top yet. As everything I told you in yesterday‘s analysis worked wonders, today‘s one will be brief. Thank you for all the praise – I‘m so glad to hear how you‘ve been killing it in the markets! Daily supports are 4,145 followed by 4,085 (I don‘t see how we would get there this week really), and on the upside.4,225 is the most ambitious target that would take quite a while to reach. While most were caught off guard yesterday, FOMO and squeeze has its limits – basing above 4,160 would be extremely healthy. 4,130 - I don‘t think would work given the strong momentum, squeeze, FOMO and rotations mentioned even before yesterday‘s analysis. Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.I can‘t understate how much you can benefit from my live feed with practically constant coverage – every day...Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 perfomed to the bulls‘ liking most definitely as is apparent from today‘s rich chart section. While I‘m looking for an eventual bullish resolution to today‘s FOMC, my medium-term view is of no smoothest sailing ahead for the bulls – still grinding higher, and also my daily intermarket observation confirms that.Follow my Twitter feed for live coverage well before the Fed die is cast today!Reiterating that the „springboard“ lives on, let me quote from yesterday‘s key analysis:(…) Markets had been running on the best case scenario where nothing could go wrong – Fed pivoting, soft landing, inflation down, job market resilience, credit quality, consumer strong and earnings (with revenue, margins and guidance) not suffering. It isn‘t turning out that way, and will increasingly less turn out so. In such an environment, tomorrow‘s FOMC merely not showing dovish face while reiterating prior positions, is to be perceived as hawkish even if it doesn‘t turn more hawkish than it was already. This is what provides for all the „selling before the news“ unfolding – a tad deeper than the „springboard“ setup.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 has first 4,063, then higher rather than lower 4,040s a key support – likely to hold in the FOMC aftermath. See captions for detailed fundamental / narrative reaction outlook.Credit MarketsNice daily risk-on reversal in bonds – volume is leaning optimistic, and bonds don‘t look expecting a Fed curveball. The same for USD.Crude OilCrude oil is relatively struggling, and my prior thoughts about this 2023 laggard being good enough just as part of a wider commodities long portfolio, remain true. $82.50 remains the key „point of control“ to beat, and then there‘s the tough $86 – 88 zone. Long road ahead.CopperCopper reversed nicely, but pay attention to the levels given in the chart. If the hawkish takeaway from FOMC prevails, real assets (high beta – think copper, silver) would be really hurt in the aftermath.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.The central bank‘s attention would understandably shift from fighting inflation to the realization that slow growth (aka stagflation, the prospect of which I first raised in Jan 2022) has become as much the economic reality as earnings recession and other real economy woes (housing, manufacturing, job market together with GDP painting a. deceptive picture of strength if you look under the hood).Markets had been running on the best case scenario where nothing could go wrong – Fed pivoting, soft landing, inflation down, job market resilience, credit quality, consumer strong and earnings (with revenue, margins and guidance) not suffering. It isn‘t turning out that way, and will increasingly less turn out so. In such an environment, tomorrow‘s FOMC merely not showing dovish face while reiterating prior positions, is to be perceived as hawkish even if it doesn‘t turn more hawkish than it was already. This is what provides for all the „selling before the news“ unfolding – a tad deeper than the „springboard“ setup.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still short-term vulnerable, but haven‘t topped. Silver not only could, but also did temporarily suffer more than gold, where $1,900 followed by $1,875 shouldn‘t be broken.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is deferred, waiting for FOMC to get out of the way. Stabilization would come first from oil stocks, and that also needs FOMC statement and conference not outdoing the Dec one. These beaten assets could be bought in the aftermath actually, mirroring the tech, crypto rally of the laggards.CopperCopper is to probe lower values, and if $4.10s don‘t hold, the $3.82 area should.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell.The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next week!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls will have to defend yesterday‘s initiative - 4,040 is the first line of support, followed by (high) 4,010s. Any downswing attempt is though likely to be confined to the roughly mid point of this two strong supports‘ range. I don‘t think 4,075 would be overcome today.Credit MarketsBonds give me a pause – we‘re likely to see stocks play defence first, especially on another housing data release (disappointment).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 defended my 3,955 level by stopping full 10 pts above it, and turning up swiftly. The rise was accompanied by good breadth, and ducks lined in a row when it comes to former laggards (tech), high betas incl. financials and just broadly speaking value stocks, and smallcaps with the dollar remaining tame. Bonds also didn‘t present any red flags. And with TSLA earnings really good yesterday, then GDP not decelerating nearly as fast enough as anticipated, PCE prices advancing and GDP deflator coming above expectations, the table is set for the Fed to miss a good tightening opportunity next week as durable goods data also attests to (which the markets would just love to see short-term) – compare against the following summary dating back to before today‘s data batch became available. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 moved out of the hot water, and the bear market rally can continue. 4,040 is to get in rear view mirror on today‘s close, and I would be eyeing the 4,080 – 4,085 area as the nearest solid resistance target (ultimately followed by my 4,130 of September CPI fame). Credit Markets No warning signs here, and the still reasonably fine real economy data of today, should help bonds to clinch a risk-on close. HYG is to outperform TLT today – and the most sensitive real assets will like it! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 barely managed to close where it did the day before, and decreasing volume points at little short-term willingness to push prices up. MSFT earnings didn‘t help either, and we‘re set up for more of what I warned you about yesterday – the bulls need to play good defence now.4,010 didn‘t hold, and today‘s battle lines are to be drawn around 3,990. After that, 3,955 comes into play as more serious support with better odds of holding up on a closing basis.What we‘re seeing, is dialing back of the excessive soft landing, Fed pivot, Fed pause (whatever you call it) sentiment – the positioning for next week‘s FOMC with 25bp hike and no change in balance sheet shrinking and more hikes ahead reiteration, goes on. Buy the rumor, sell the news – and this rally of laggards (tech, crypto) is going to notice. It‘s happening already – and they say that markets are efficient, see my take.At the same time, the countdown to recession continues as money supply (M2) is flashing red yet the easy financial conditions index of Chicago Fed doesn‘t reflect that yet. Especially the Europe avoiding recession miracle is going to get proper scrutiny in the months ahead. It‘ll take time to burn through this complacency – stocks haven‘t topped out yet…Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals paint a picture of short-term caution, and I mean the pre-FOMC positioning and reaction to no Fed pivot especially. Buying opportunity ahead for those who missed the boat.Crude OilCrude oil is to put in a higher low – and keep ever so slowly recovering. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bulls need to play good defence now as 4,040 predictably stopped the rally yesterday. The retreat in junk corporate bonds with cyclicals should give the buyers some pause. And as clear risk-off is unlikely to strike today (earnings aren‘t as strong a catalyst to trigger that, and UK figures didn‘t have that power either), we can look forward for both TLT to remain well bid, and tech not totally mirroring its daily strength.It‘s about the soft landing, and its odds to be dialed back somewhat next – before the hype returns for next week‘s FOMC. For S&P 500 that means a lean day today of quite some chop with 3,990 and 3,955 levels being key. As stated in yesterday‘s extensive analysis:(…) Good luck with earnings projections and valuations – and don‘t forget about those two rate cuts priced in for late 2023.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 and 4,010s – that‘s what the buyers are eyeing (to close comfortably above). While today is no true Turnaround Tuesday, we‘re looking at sellers to be having the daily initiative.Credit MarketsBonds are in for a lackluster session, and merely defending current levels with price increases on the long end, would be a success. And constructive for the stock market.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 buers had a good Friday, and market breadth confirms that beond cyclicals leading over defensives. Even if bonds are relatively cautious, there is still more juice in this bear market rally left – I continue leaning bullish, clearly bullish. The dollar isn‘t going anywhere, has been my memorable call almost two weeks ago before the BoJ not yielding an inch move – the dollar relief rally isn‘t yet here, and more downside looms.This already had powerful consequences for real assets – neither precious metals, nor copper corrected much, and crude oil is on a slow but firm upswing too. Circling to China and its role in the world economy, the reopening has put a fine floor beneath even as the Fed continues tightening and foreign central banks such ECB promise to quicken their pace. Fed pivot? Not even a Fed pause – only a slowdown in pace of rate increases while balance sheet shrinking remains on a preset trajectory. None of this bodes well for the financial conditions that have become overly easy with the soft landing hopes. True, unless the pace of layoffs quickens (more news beyond AMZN or MSFT), the soft landing odds went up, which has consequences for inflation, especially services inflation. And the Fed won‘t like that, and will reevaluate what‘s the restrictive Fed funds rate level accordingly – if they insist, then even 5.50% can get too low for Kashkari.Good luck with earnings projections and valuations – and don‘t forget about those two rate cuts priced in for late 2023.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersGold with silver are to do well, front running first the dollar and then also yields. Miners are confirming, and no deep correction is ahead. Back and forth with an upward bias.Crude OilCrude oil is gathering strength for upswing continuation - $85 is the next upper target, followed by the tougher $88 area. Oil stocks support the move, but it‘s the $91 - $93 area (to give in by late spring) that would be key to return of bullish spirits.CopperShallow pullbacks in copper are still being bought, and base metals together with precious metals, would be the stars of 2023. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Some S&P 500 buying emerged finally, and not even NFLX earnings ushered in a significant move either way. This summary of four key ES_F levels for today, holds true – I‘m not expecting a sizable move in stocks on this options expiry Friday - that would happen next week and especially as we approach Jan FOMC with the newly even more favored 25bp over 50bp as per futures markets.Make no mistake though, the headwinds are to intensify as the recessionary pressures grow in intensity in the months ahead. See earnings and profit margins in the context of strong job market and commodities pricing (especially oil). I stand by my call that the Fed would have to tighten into the 5.50% Fed funds rate area as per its model, as they redefine what‘s a restrictive level.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersSimilarly to coppper holding up well, so do precious metals. Quoting my yesterday‘s words – „The upper knots may look intimidating, but gold is likely to hold up relatively well.“ And so it did and does, including the call that no silver decline below $22.60 seems to be imminent.Crude OilCrude oil keeps fighting around $81 – and doing well there. Modest appreciation expected next - $88 area will be a tough nut to crack.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are receding, and recession prospects come to the fore, which was the subject of Tuesday‘s extensive analysis. The turn in sentiment was fast, however our long S&P 500 and copper gains were protected by tightened stop-losses, taking the model portfolio significantly higher - .above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (check my homepage for descriptions - no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results). That‘s the proper long-term view with odds heavily in your favor through diligent analytics! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 has the nearest support at 3,895, and on the upside 3,915 can give the buyers some chance to think about retracement. The character of the market is slowly changing as 200-d moving average was rejected. Again, and the same goes if you‘re in favor of looking for a declining line connecting recent tops. Credit Markets Bonds aren‘t supportive of any steep rally – it‘s flight to safety of Treasuries as economic prospects deteriorate. No animal spirits at the moment really. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Both S&P 500 and real assets welcomed the BoJ not giving ground, which translates into more money creation in defence of JGB yields, with USD consequences (no relief rally just yet, no). Likewise the incoming data didn‘t send risk assets cratering. Markets want to believe that this disappointments (interpreted in the tweet I linked to), make Fed pivot closer. That‘s a miscalculation – reckoning awaits, and it will take time to arrive.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is likely to continue attempting to take on 4,040, which can succeed only after 4,010 becomes a solid support. We aren‘t there yet, but the trend is still up – no top has been made. 3,980 is still first support.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued higher Friday as consumer confidence data didn‘t disappoint – adding to soft landing hopes. Soft landing would though only happen should the unemployment claims don‘t rise too much – on the flip side, that would mean that service inflation would remain high, which is exactly what we have seen so far. It‘s a double edged sword, this tight job market – and it will remain tight. Just have a look at unemployment ratio to job openings – it‘s not really declining, and the Fed wants to see it decline, just like latest job creation is more than double the Fed‘s preferred less that 100K monthly.So when would the troubles strike, based on what the Fed is doing? I look for continued balance sheet shrinking, and while the hikes favor 25bp for Jan FOMC, it‘s far from a done deal. 50bp is still very much an option (underappreciated by the markets), but I acknowledge it‘s slightly less probable than 25bp. Anyway, it takes up to 12 months for rate hike effects to play out in the economy, and we have seen one of the steepest hiking paths last year – one that can be compared to mid 1990s (the last time of a soft landing, by the way).Followed by 25bp more in Mar, we would have Fed funds rate at 5%, but Kashkari wants to go higher, almost to 5.50% - and should headline and especially core inflation remain sticky (these won‘t please the Fed in the months ahead), the central bank would seek to redefine its level of restrictive FFR regardless of the 2y yield telling the Fed for weeks it‘s done tightening, otherwise things in the real economy start to break.Forget for a moment about Japanese yields rising, third day in a row above the 0.50% threshold the BoJ deems permissible. Appreciating JPY as the yen carry trade is unwound, which is resulting in rising Treasury yields (parking the money in risk-free U.S. government bonds was the go-to proposition of those borrowing in yen). Brings in mind the Swiss frank peg, and we know how that ended.And indeed thing are all on a solid track of breaking – let‘s isolate earnings and the pace of recent surprises. If these continue as before, we are looking at a neutral or negative earnings growth quarter, but greater troubles would strike in Q2 earnings season, because the Fed in my view wouldn‘t be able to avoid doing no more rate hikes, and I am not even bringing up the market hopes of two rate cuts late 2023 that the Fed is adamantly ruling out, and I agree as it in my view wouldn‘t cut.It‘s aware that inflation has to be defeated, and inflation expectation must return lower – including household ones, and by extension nominal wage growth. After having cut the temps and overtime hours, things will get serious in the job market, with quickening pace of layoffs once the unemployment rate increases over 4%. Not even poor manufacturing, services or real estate data would convince the Fed. As for the recent bank earnings (more to come this week, together with $PG and $AA), see rising loan loss reserves. Couples nicely with tightened bank lending standards. Add the soon to be 10 months in a row of negative LEIs, and the two yield curve inversions (levels unseen in decades)– and you can bet your bottom dollar on recession arriving around mid year, which is when the going would get considerably rougher.We ain‘t seen nothing yet. If in doubt, check shipping rates - $BDI below Aug lows while U.S. domestic transport remains more resilient – the troubles haven‘t yet hit the shores, but are amply seen in leading indicators.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is likely to spend more time around the 200-d moving average. 3,980 is first support, followed by 3,955. Conversely 4,010 and 4,040 await on the upside as the tug of war is going on. The timing of USD relief rally will though tip the scales one way...Credit MarketsBonds look to be in need of a breather, but aren‘t done retreating. The jitters are understandable given the BoJ uncertainty – won‘t it disappoint in setting the new 10-y permissible rate? The risks are skewed towards risk-off, broadly speaking.CopperCopper is worth watching here for general risk-on sentiment – the red metal would (and should) stumble without recovering into $4.15 on troubles hitting and spreading to other assets in the very short run.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 didn‘t like CPI coming in line with expectations, and it was indeed „buy the rumor sell the news“ reaction, followed by cutting into 4,010 on confirming bond and dollar price action. No fresh fuel though making for a larger reaction.And today we have some telling bank earnings, facilitating the approach to 3,955 – and University of Michigan consumer confidence data which wouldn‘t prove any huge disappointment. Just around the expected figure, making for an uneventful session Friday, with the only two daily questions being whether the buyers can reconquer 3,980, and whether the sellers can push below 3,955 closer to 3,910 or at least midpoint.Remember, the Fed is hawkish and will remain hawkish, and the rally is running on borrowed timeKeep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookGiven the banking earnings aftermath, the key „point of control“ at 3,955 has to hold so as to prevent levels mentioned in the opening part of today‘s analysis. Close above 3,980 would be ideal for the bulls, but unless 4,010 is cleared, stocks remain in a precarious zone, and vulnerable to swift reversals at the 200-d MA.CopperCopper consolidation mentioned yesterday, looks to be starting. Risk-on consequences, so watch out.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!As for today, 3,955 is the name of the game.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookLet‘s go – or better said – try to go higher, provided that outside markets and stock internals support that. We can make it above 3,955 to gradually approach 3,980 as the next objective, but it won‘t be a disaster if 3,955 holds on a closing basis.Credit MarketsBonds aren‘t throwing in the towel, and especially the TLT decline is inordinate. TLT and TLH would just dial that back during today.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

That‘s what S&P 500 needs – and with my patient call of the upside resolution to the recent range being more probable. For all the excitement of making another great call, don‘t lose the big picture view.The not overly hot jobs figure allows for the Jan top to be made, with the first objective to be completed, being the upside break of 3,875. Note how well silver, copper, gold and oil are doing in the NFPs aftermath. I‘ll keep commenting the live price action on Twitter as:(…) The narrow window of opportunity to allow the market celebrate CPI while PPI continues raising its ugly head, is at hand.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook3,875 is likely to give today, and 3,895 – 3,910 zone awaits for Monday. Yes, be patient because stocks are running with a Fed tightening misperception – the central bank isn‘t backing off.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver will again rise from here, it‘s a matter of very short time till $23.80 goes in the rear view mirror. Note also my yesterday‘s tweets about fine reversals in GDX and SIL.Crude OilCrude oil, this laggard of 2023, is hesitantly starting to move as well, but don‘t expect miracles too soon or too fast. Still worth holding here for more upside though. As 2022 was the year of energy, and 2023 would belong to metals and agrifoods.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 was slated to rise either during yesterday, or today, as the discussed barrage of tightening and worsening real economy news drove asset prices inordinately lower on Friday too. Monday‘s feeble upswing wasn‘t restored after the open, and steady deterioration breaking through 3,850 opened the gates to 3,815 and potentially 3,780s then. Japanese jitters didn‘t help.Today‘s picture is shaping up brighter even as stocks languish close to the unchanged mark. The European session has gone well. The ingredients for an upside surprise driven by unyielding crude oil, and sharply rebounding silver (followed a bit too tamely by copper) while gold is looking fine on a daily basis, bode well for stocks today and later this week (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). If you want to play this short-term rebound, make sure you don‘t overstay the welcome, and lock in open profits via frequently updated trailing stop-losses.Keep in mind the bigger picture till the year end. Very much looking forward for returning to the usual frequency, scope and presence as of Jan 02, 2023! Thank you for your patience, and have blessed days ahead!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 finished Friday on a weak note – gloomy string of tightening news from around the world, disappointing the markets and dialing back risk sentiment considerably. Coupled with the real economy hits – retreating LEIs, retail sales starting in my view a subdued period, manufacturing and housing in full retreat mode, and layoffs rising. There have been even reports from Philadelphia Fed to the effect of NFPs data projecting a false picture of strength – yes, the differential between Establishment and Household surveys continues to widen, now standing at 2.7 million jobs (Nov 2022), be it thanks to full time, part time or multiple job holders, or the birth-death model. For all the labor market tightness, and the categories seeing gains (sectorally not representing a picture of strength, but rather teetering on the brink of recession), the Fed is in my view relying on a deceptive picture of strength in the job market when the opposite is slowly becoming the truth,You can liken it to the tightening effects, where I come in the 12 months time frame to see them play out rather than 6 only. And if you look at where the 2-year yield is, and where the Fed funds rate is, the message is clear – things are starting to break in the real economy, and the Fed would better wait and see here. Instead, we‘re likely to get 25bp Jan and Mar hikes, taking the Fed funds rate to 5.00% - and the Fed thinks about a restrictive territory of 5.50% later in 2023, provided that (household) inflation expectations are cooperating. The focus is to avoid the 1970s mistake of letting inflation expectations become unanchored... while looking at the lagging indicator of CPI and its core as well.And so are thinking other key central banks – ECB, BoE and SNB – not just hiking rates, but continuing shrinking the balance sheet. All done at the same time when the Treasury needs to step up debt issuance in Q1 2023, contributing to mopping up liquidity from the system. Are banks likely to withdraw reserves held at the Fed and deploy in the real economy (credit multiplier aka making money go round through the fractional reserve system multiplier) when the evidence of slowdown as kicking in (NBER has already ruled that those two negative quarters earlier in 2022, aren‘t a recession, and the Q3 figure was indeed good), dragging down earnings estimates and outlook?Who‘s going to buy the fresh debt when reliable foreigners are withdrawing the bid, too? Squeezed profit margins are to reflect on P/E multiples – and we‘re back at the many disconnects in the labor market.Even credit markets tell the same story – and the rally or at least stabilization in bonds would have been a necessary ingredient of this Q4 bear market rally as much as that of the summer one – the U.S. was leading the world for German bonds or UK guilts haven‘t rallied as far as Treasuries did. The march to higher yields, is on, that‘s the big picture view.The key questions now are the shape of the U.S. consumer in Q1 2023 – if retail sales show the latest reading was only a blip, there needn‘t be a significant Q1 S&P 500 correction. Stocks would instead decline thereafter. Or the tightening (including $90bn a month in balance sheet shrinking) forces some shoe to drop in 1H 2023 – watch for Fed swaps and credit default swaps to reveal the stress.I‘ll be discussing the individual market effects within the chart section.In all likelihood, this is my last extensive daily analysis of 2022 – unfortunately I‘ll have to limit analytical coverage and Twitter activities will over the coming two days, and these will be absent in the following week.Very much looking forward for returning to the usual frequency, scope and presence as of Jan 02, 2023! Thank you for your patience, and have blessed days ahead!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe higher volume can be chalked down to options expiry, and doesn‘t necessarily represent an upcoming (strong) rebound, even though we‘re likely to reflexively move up today. Even prints below 3,905-3,910 will probably provide resistance today, before to the surprise of many – we can have a relatively good part of Jan as I‘m not looking for the Santa Claus rally to come anymore.Credit MarketsTLT is hanging in there, but needs time to drif lower, while HYG can surprise in the short term. I‘m looking for these moves to determine the stock market direction next week, together with the dollar (not on a relief rally yet).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued in the post-FOMC direction, and managed to keep above the 3,905-3,910 support. Arguably it could have done better as the bond market retreated from its meekly positive posture only before the closing bell. The buyers didn‘t stage even a dead cat bounce, and that means Friday‘s option expiry day is likely to bring donwside momentum continuation, with 3,880 coming into play should the above mentioned support be not reconquered right after the open.While real assets held fine on Wednesday, both precious metals and commodities took a heavy daily hit – daily, it must be said. In spite of the rising volume, the dust is likely to settle before Christmas, and both gold and silver (together with copper) are finely positioned for 2023 – to be driven by rising volatility and sticky inflation. Oil is best held only as part of a portfolio with the above three, even if it can deliver a nice upside surprise, such catalyst isn‘t on the horizon, and first there would come the relief rally in USD, pressuring them all.And this rally can happen even as long-dated Treasuries keep rising to reflect the worsening economic data from housing, manufacturing, or retail sales (the last two confirm the U.S. as firmly on the road towards recession, the subject of Monday‘s extensive article). Final point worth noting, is the continued steepening of yield curve, and worsening financial conditions. Whenever XLF and KRE don‘t do well, it‘s more than ample warning – and financials belonged to the drivers of this bear market rally, and have rolled over earlier than industrials or materials did. Not a good sight for bulls – as stated yesterday, stock market rips are to be sold.The decreasing sensitivity to Fed rate hikes, balance sheet shrinking, and financial conditions in general, is self evident in the precious metals chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already. With recession on the relatively immediate horizon, and fresh Treasury debt issuance and short-term debt rollover needs, good luck for the central bank executing the tightening policy the way they look to. Methinks that CPI, GDP and earnings projections need revisiting as the current estimates are too rosy, and well before Q2 2023 ends, the situation will be dramatically different as per Monday‘s extensive examination of which recession narrative is to pan out.My big picture view continues being to look for rips to sell as S&P 500 made two brief retracements yesterday, and the ground for Santa Claus rally looks shaky. The buyers were unwilling to step in, and justifiably so. What we have left, is remaining institutional investors buying and then the unpredictable tax loss selling amid darkening economic and liquidity horizon that‘s temporarily and disproportionaltely affecting commodity and precious metals too. As inflation wouldn‘t retreat as far as projected (5-6% appears best case), look for rising stock market volatility to usher in a fresh bid in real assets, which are slated to do well during sticky inflation and economic growth trouble times.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookYesterday I wrote that time wasn‘t on bulls‘ side, and it‘s even more true today. Key levels are described in the caption, and I doubt another 4,040 retest is coming this week. 4,025 at best.Credit MarketsNo fine message as regards risk taking, Santa Claus is having issues – and the dollar decline translates to markets saying that the upcoming issues won‘t leave the States unaffected in the least. S&P 500 bears are in control, and TLT is about to rise still some more.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.As usual, I‘ll be covering the FOMC live on Twitter for you.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookIn short, the bulls don‘t look to be done, but time (especially if you open the weekly chart), isn‘t on their side.Gold, Silver and MinersGreat run in silver that‘s nowhere over, and my conservative April 2023 $27 target has me itching to upgrade it over the nearest months by at least 10%. As a side note, COMEX stockpile is at 33mln oz only (typical short squeeze territory)...Crude OilCrude oil has duly turned as per the caption – and similarly to the positive natgas views published lately on Twitter (fine U.S. weather driver), sees black gold trying to turn a corner after a fake breakdown.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 recovered Friday‘s setback with ease and on rising volume amid confirmations from outside markets. Even cryptos started pulling their weight on a daily basis, which together with advance bond, dollar, PMs and commodities price action, provided ample clues as to why my bullish bias presented in yesterday‘s extensive analysis – one not to miss – is to usher in Santa Claus rally.Whether you look at it several hours before the decelerating CPI release, or dozen of minutes before that, it was plain obvious. Both headline and core CPI cooperated, and markets are positioning for a no event FOMC tomorrow (I‘m deliberately, tongue in cheek, exaggerating). See those fireworks in real assets – no point in me in talking why I had been bullish them all, let the account balances of those listening, speak for themselves…Reminder of yesterday‘s key passages:(…) Remember my early Aug call for inflation to drift to 5-6% - we aren‘t even there yet. And how about the unwritten rule to get Fed funds rate 0.5% above inflation so as to make it restrictive? Taking on the supply side drivers of inflation (crippled supply and excess demand being equally and largest inflation drivers as per Fed‘models) with demand side tools, isn‘t working as fast as the Fed wants, and the still hot labor market (3.7% unemployment rate with 5% nominal wage growth) is also proving sticky – this one though would be unrecognizable by the end of 2023 as at least full three points can be added to the unemployment rate easily. Don‘t forget the declining participation rate effects either.So, the Fed is going to be stuck with sticky inflation and high commodity prices – even if base metals and agrifoods are likely to do better than energy over the months ahead. The Fed hasn‘t yet gotten restrictive, and markets with all their retracements of hits taken (such as Friday) are betting it wouldn‘t – the pivot hopes are still central to the bullish case at and beyond the Santa Claus time.It‘s ultimately a conflict between how deep and widespread toll the current tightening would take – it‘s about the Moynihan and Dimon viewpoints. I would argue that the first forecast of an isolated hit somewhere where it doesn‘t hurt or spread that much, with the Fed then saving the day through easy money, is a too optimistic one. The fact that so many on Wall Street are predicting earnings to grow above inflation at the most narrow margin in 40 years (6% over 5%, equalling 1%), with this being the bullish case, tells you a lot about the challenges we are to face next year.JPM‘s more realistic scenario assumes a tougher recession, one on the quite immediate horizon. One that wouldn‘t be easy to solve through liquidity injections. One that would bring down earnings, labor market and inflation more than anticipated. PMIs at this level never misindicated a recession, and yield curve inversion is highest since early 1980s. Hard landing if you will, with the Fed not blinking, and not cutting rates after Jun 2023, but keeping the Fed funds rate at 5.5% (higher if wage growth pressures persist – and odds are they would surprise the central bank still as we‘re in an environment of sticky inflation and rising yields, so don‘t overstay your long TLT welcome).In such an environment, Santa Claus rally has a tough job running, running far. It needs CPI slowdown to beat expectations, and then the Fed to do 50bp only as priced in. With the statement and conference, any words would be good to grasp at – in a Hail Mary bullish fashion.And that‘s what we got precisely, in lien with my last week inflation deceleration calls – enough for the bulls to run with.See that volume and value with tech both kicking in yesterday? The tide was rising, in the last hours before the closing bell. Typical… And off to the races in a Hail Mary bullish fashion (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 gave up not too far above the 3,965 level it could have kept as PPI decelerated not fast enough to meet market expectations. Rising yields mean markets are betting on more hawkish Fed action, even if necessarily not right in Dec or Jan – it‘s only 5% Fed funds rate that‘s priced in so far. Also, markets are thinking the Fed would be forced to start taking rates down in the 2H 2023, but such anticipation seems very premature even if the central bank goes with 50bp this week and 25bp in Jan only.Remember my early Aug call for inflation to drift to 5-6% - we aren‘t even there yet. And how about the unwritten rule to get Fed funds rate 0.5% above inflation so as to make it restrictive? Taking on the supply side drivers of inflation (crippled supply and excess demand being equally and largest inflation drivers as per Fed‘models) with demand side tools, isn‘t working as fast as the Fed wants, and the still hot labor market (3.7% unemployment rate with 5% nominal wage growth) is also proving sticky – this one though would be unrecognizable by the end of 2023 as at least full three points can be added to the unemployment rate easily. Don‘t forget the declining participation rate effects either.So, the Fed is going to be stuck with sticky inflation and high commodity prices – even if base metals and agrifoods are likely to do better than energy over the months ahead. The Fed hasn‘t yet gotten restrictive, and markets with all their retracements of hits taken (such as Friday) are betting it wouldn‘t – the pivot hopes are still central to the bullish case at and beyond the Santa Claus time.It‘s ultimately a conflict between how deep and widespread toll the current tightening would take – it‘s about the Moynihan and Dimon viewpoints. I would argue that the first forecast of an isolated hit somewhere where it doesn‘t hurt or spread that much, with the Fed then saving the day through easy money, is a too optimistic one. The fact that so many on Wall Street are predicting earnings to grow above inflation at the most narrow margin in 40 years (6% over 5%, equalling 1%), with this being the bullish case, tells you a lot about the challenges we are to face next year.JPM‘s more realistic scenario assumes a tougher recession, one on the quite immediate horizon. One that wouldn‘t be easy to solve through liquidity injections. One that would bring down earnings, labor market and inflation more than anticipated. PMIs at this level never misindicated a recession, and yield curve inversion is highest since early 1980s. Hard landing if you will, with the Fed not blinking, and not cutting rates after Jun 2023, but keeping the Fed funds rate at 5.5% (higher if wage growth pressures persist – and odds are they would surprise the central bank still as we‘re in an environment of sticky inflation and rising yields, so don‘t overstay your long TLT welcome).In such an environment, Santa Claus rally has a tough job running, running far. It needs CPI slowdown to beat expectations, and then the Fed to do 50bp only as priced in. With the statement and conference, any words would be good to grasp at – in a Hail Mary bullish fashion.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today extensive to make up for mostly briefer format till the end of the year) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAll it takes is one bad misstep Tue and Wed, and 3,905-3,910 support gives way, opening 3,880 then. Relative outperfomance of industrials, materials and financials would save the bulls, and open the way for some final 2-3 bullish weeks weeks this year.The below described credit market move favors the bulls for today – no anticipation yet of when and how this retracement of Friday‘s sharp reaction, ends. The sputtering, that‘s the key word, sputtering rally can get an ally still, provided the Fed plays ball – but don‘t pin your hopes for targets too high.Credit MarketsNot a good daily close, not at all, but quality debt will make up for that right next. What‘s required, is for junk corporate bonds to join in as well – the sentiment can‘t sink on more hawkish Fed bets.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

PPI and core PPI came above expectations, fuelling a sharp S&P 500 decline upon the data release. Similarly to yesterday though, the market reaction isn‘t unequivocal as neither USD nor yields are correspondingly up. Real assets aren‘t tanking either, not even the 3m Treasury yield has moved much. And that leads me to think the bearish gap on the news release, will be taken on at least to the 3,965 level degree, after an otherwise positive, bullish turn in paper assets yesterday, which was accompanied by a not at all contradictory real assets message.Summing up, the (especially the one that Fed is looking at – the core) PPI figure has spooked the markets, but there is no deleveraging panic kicking in. Gold and silver are up – and so is oil, with copper likely to improve later today as well. The dollar isn‘t barking (remember yesterday‘s article featuring similar theme), and that‘s a telltale sign that a sharp selling spree isn‘t likely to kick in after today‘s opening bell. Being ready for all eventualities, watch for the opening selling pressure to ideally dissipate within dozens of minutes after the bell, and for solid bid lifting prices above 3,965 to materialize next. Failing that, 3,905-3,910 is the support next, which I however don‘t see as likely to be jeopardized – chop would be more probable instead of a fall, as the seasonal tendencies counter the sellers still. Similarly, precious metals and commodities are likely to weather today‘s volatility fine, with the former outperforming the latter (headwinds are to be more lasting in commodities as opposed to gold and silver, which benefit from signs of inflation being as sticky as I‘ve been telling you about for months it would be. Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 didn‘t break the3,905-3,910 zone, not even overnight. Most tellingly, USD couldn‘t catch a proper bid on yields turning sharply up, and commodities in the black merely confirm risk-on sentiment to win today. The bears fumbled during the European sessions, and the relative performance of value and tech highlights where to look for gains today (in the cyclicals).See the turn in intraday appreciation for oil (always good when the laggard wakes up – silver with copper continue to lead gold, and miners are to do very well) as it relates to the dollar, and how USD‘s intraday reversal reflects on what‘s to come today – already today, and not after tomorrow‘s PPI release:(…) The key catalyst to look for in terms of upside fuel, is Friday‘s PPI that‘s likely to show slowdown in inflation, and then Tuesday‘s CPI probably to come at 7.5 or 7.6% YoY, which would once again (in both cases) feed into the „Fed would now really go slow on tightening aka pivot“ angle that markets are way too willing to run with. Willing as in misguided, because the Fed isn‘t getting less restrictive at all – see rate hiking and balance sheet shrinking combined, effects to play out still. No better indicator of demand destruction to come than the price of oil really – sign of caution.Referring to the title, it‘s the USD-yields-commodities interplay, which will result in nice day of real asset trailed by stocks market gains.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNo break of the 3,905 – 3,910 support, declining volume, and crucially the above mentioned inconsistencies within the bearish push as 3,910 didn‘t break overnight regardless of a good run at it aftermarket when the bears still had the initiative that was lost during the European session only. 3,965 followed by 3,980 are the upside levels.Credit MarketsHYG recovered from intraday weakness into the close, and that was constructive – even if junk bonds underperformed TLT. During the European morning, the market shook this off, and will continue to add to gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 continued lower as the 4,010 recapture attempt failed and 3,980 couldn‘t hold. Rejection at 200-day moving average, with prices down over a 100pts makes for more than a short-term setback – I‘ve been clear that the opening part of Dec isn‘t yet time to be wildly bullish. These weeks, we‘re searching for a local low in order to take the final 2-3 weeks of Dec into early Jan by the horns. Odds are still good for Santa Claus to come by.But what about this week? Key to be nimble as we move between the 200-day and 100-day moving averages. Yesterday‘s momentum play provided such a brief opportunity, and now it‘s about the overnight rebound fizzling out again or not. Both dollar and bonds changed sharply direction intraday, and favor retracement of prior downside, but I can‘t be buying it really just yet. The key catalyst to look for in terms of upside fuel, is Friday‘s PPI that‘s likely to show slowdown in inflation, and then Tuesday‘s CPI probably to come at 7.5 or 7.6% YoY, which would once again (in both cases) feed into the „Fed would now really go slow on tightening aka pivot“ angle that markets are way too willing to run with. Willing as in misguided, because the Fed isn‘t getting less restrictive at all – see rate hiking and balance sheet shrinking combined, effects to play out still. No better indicator of demand destruction to come than the price of oil really – sign of caution.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookVolume picking up, and unless S&P 500 reclaims 3,965, the daily outlook remains bearish – and that preliminarily goes for tomorrow as well. Downside targets in case the bond upswing fizzles out today, are given in the opening part of the article.Credit MarketsSomething is wrong with HYG – I don‘t see junk corporate bonds recovering through Thursday. Much work still ahead to turn bonds risk-on, no matter precious metals and commodities today (looks more a function of the dollar daily decline).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 and especially real assets didn‘t take kindly to the serious whiff of risk-off that was manifest more so in financials (banking) than the dollar. Overshadowing the China reopening where yesterday mentioned $BABA.didn‘t disappoint (still room to run), the 500-strong index gradually and increasingly lost ground during the regular session.The overnight bounce has been weak, not taking out 4,010 conclusively (yet). The bulls lost the momentum on the second, more promising push than earlier in the European morning – 3,980 is proving resilient after all, but watch out below should it be taken out. At the same time, there is more medium-term bullish fuel to come for all the reasons mentioned yesterday.Keep in mind:(…) Friday‘s aftermath of NFPs makes it clear that market Fed pivot guessing games are very much alive and well. It‘s as if a nice lagging indicator‘s figure were to result in more Fed hawkishness, in higher hikes immediately next.That‘s not the case though – I continue standing by 50bp in Dec, 25bp in Jan and 25bp in Mar. 5.50% Fed funds rate and keeping there for long in a bid not to tip the economy into recession, but only to make it grow well below its potential – I told you this over a month ago already. They wouldn‘t though succeed, and the recent pronouncements reflecting caution about seeing all the tightening effects play out, reflects that perfectly. Looking for a crash though, and a very deep and long recession?Don‘t be, that‘s currently not my leading scenario. We would see GDP decline peak to trough by perhaps up to 2% with unemployment rate rising over 3% - this wouldn‘t approximate even the 2007-2009 crisis. As I am looking for trouble to arrive a bit before mid 2023, we have still time to see that reflected in earnings and guidance. It‘s not all about the inverted yield curve, which got inverted some more already – the larger money flows between the Treasury, Fed and banks don‘t yet support deeper downside in stocks.Trepidations before the Q4 rally peters out as it stretches into early Jan? OK, that‘s my base scenario. What are then the key levels for today? 4,040 to hold as support otherwise we may visit the 4,010s again, and these really better hold. Nothing unmanageable. 4,065 remains the goal on the upside, with more work ahead as we grind toward 4,130.It ain‘t easy, this climb – the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy (see PMIs and then hello housing, manufacturing), inflation has credibly peaked (we celebrated that on Nov CPI already), and deterioration is still to hit the job market. Watch hourly earnings, hours worked, and where those job gains come from – hospitality, leisure and retail, that‘s not a good sign, it‘ll cascade eventually into consumer confidence and retail sales as households burn through extra savings (the most vulnerable ones have already – they are now at the mercy of job market (hiring) and wage growth (currently still driven by household inflation expectations, which are higher than what‘s seen in the data, and definitely something that the Fed wants to break). Labor market adds certainly to profit margins pressure.Moreover, the Fed is not only tightening, but draining liquidity, $60bn a month in Treasuries and $30bn in mortgage backed securities. And where are foreigners, lining up for fresh debt issuance? Yeah, that‘s the larger trouble ahead.Time for big piture sectoral picks going beyond stocks – I continue being bullish on silver with gold incl. miners, energy ranging from oil to renewables to nuclear, agriculture (incl. fertilizers, $DE), defence sector with aerospace ($BA etc). These will benefit during the increased volatility and sticky inflation to be with us in 2023 and beyond.What we saw yesterday, is fear of systemic risk creeping in – as in foreboding. It ain‘t here yet, no matter what $CS and its CDS are doing (CHF would likely be a well performing currency later next year, alongside JPY) – the Fed stands ready to help wherever significant cracks overseas are appearing. Yesterday‘s reaction and what is still to play out before markets have a fundamental catalyst to turn on (Friday‘s PPI), demonstrates fear of the unknown.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit on extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBack midway to the range, rising volume – the bulls don‘t have the initiative, especially not in the slow opening weeks of Dec.Credit MarketsThe degree to which HYG gets its act together today, would be most telling, I wrote Friday and yesterday – and it shows how the tables have turned yesterday. Ideally, let‘s not break below the line connecting recent HYG lows.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

S&P 500 practically closed the overreaction gap on better than expected NFPs, but the weak close and aftermarket still Friday hinted at weak entry into this week. Friday‘s aftermath of NFPs makes it clear that market Fed pivot guessing games are very much alive and well. It‘s as if a nice lagging indicator‘s figure were to result in more Fed hawkishness, in higher hikes immediately next.That‘s not the case though – I continue standing by 50bp in Dec, 25bp in Jan and 25bp in Mar. 5.50% Fed funds rate and keeping there for long in a bid not to tip the economy into recession, but only to make it grow well below its potential – I told you this over a month ago already. They wouldn‘t though succeed, and the recent pronouncements reflecting caution about seeing all the tightening effects play out, reflects that perfectly. Looking for a crash though, and a very deep and long recession?Don‘t be, that‘s currently not my leading scenario. We would see GDP decline peak to trough by perhaps up to 2% with unemployment rate rising over 3% - this wouldn‘t approximate even the 2007-2009 crisis. As I am looking for trouble to arrive a bit before mid 2023, we have still time to see that reflected in earnings and guidance. It‘s not all about the inverted yield curve, which got inverted some more already – the larger money flows between the Treasury, Fed and banks don‘t yet support deeper downside in stocks.Trepidations before the Q4 rally peters out as it stretches into early Jan? OK, that‘s my base scenario. What are then the key levels for today? 4,040 to hold as support otherwise we may visit the 4,010s again, and these really better hold. Nothing unmanageable. 4,065 remains the goal on the upside, with more work ahead as we grind toward 4,130.It ain‘t easy, this climb – the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy (see PMIs and then hello housing, manufacturing), inflation has credibly peaked (we celebrated that on Nov CPI already), and deterioration is still to hit the job market. Watch hourly earnings, hours worked, and where those job gains come from – hospitality, leisure and retail, that‘s not a good sign, it‘ll cascade eventually into consumer confidence and retail sales as households burn through extra savings (the most vulnerable ones have already – they are now at the mercy of job market (hiring) and wage growth (currently still driven by household inflation expectations, which are higher than what‘s seen in the data, and definitely something that the Fed wants to break). Labor market adds certainly to profit margins pressure.Moreover, the Fed is not only tightening, but draining liquidity, $60bn a month in Treasuries and $30bn in mortgage backed securities. And where are foreigners, lining up for fresh debt issuance? Yeah, that‘s the larger trouble ahead.Time for big piture sectoral picks going beyond stocks – I continue being bullish on silver with gold incl. miners, energy ranging from oil to renewables to nuclear, agriculture (incl. fertilizers, $DE), defence sector with aerospace ($BA etc). These will benefit during the increased volatility and sticky inflation to be with us in 2023 and beyond. China fans can take advantage of $BABA right now.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit on extra intraday calls.Just a reminded from last week – I added the promised yearly packages to both Monica's Trading Signals and Monica's Stock Signals – see the two new tiers added at Patreon.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe opening gap was practically closed, and we‘re now waiting only at the level and time the rebound would continue from.Credit MarketsThe degree to which HYG gets its act together today, will be most telling, I wrote Friday – and the picture is reasonably optimistic still.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Yesterday confirmed the risk-on turn in S&P 500 and beyond as Powell didn‘t spook the markets in the end. So, not even a temporary setback, let alone crash that many others had been calling for. Face ripper rallies stretching from stocks, bonds, over to precious metals, base metals and even oil (so contingent upon what‘s going on in China) ensued. Following the Williams and Bullar duo, don‘t underestimate this key Powell pronouncement. Markets are running with that. The Q4 rally got a new lease on life, and the pace of gains (digesting this fresh momentum) are to determine not only the 4,065 support that held overnight, but also the next hurdle of 4,130 – with all that I would be guiding you on thereafter. This sharp increase in volume doesn‘t hint at more than a tactical pullback at best – with risk-on bonds firmly confirming the rally, and the dollar again losing altitude. Some recap of the fresh daily levels - don‘t be disappointed if we don‘t make it to 4,130 today, the progress already has been excellent, and no market goes up in a straight line. Volume confirms. Finally, what‘s not to love about precious metals, or the whole portfolio? Copper going hand in hand with silver, miners on fire too, and oil… Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. I can‘t stress that enough as there also intraday profit opportunities that I cover on the go via Twitter. Turn your notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing.Today, I‘m also offering the promised yearly packages to both Monica's Trading Signals and Monica's Stock Signals – see the two new tiers added at Patreon.Let‘s move right into the key chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals and miners cast the best light on the current phase of the monetary policy cycle. Bright days are arriving, and silver will lead. Potentially to $27 before Apr 2023 is over.

S&P 500 maintained overnight posture, and bonds held up really fine into the close while the dollar isn‘t showing too many signs of bullish life. The Powell speech is likely to be shaken off as I don‘t think he would tighten the screws more so than Williams and Bullard did, i.e. that markets won‘t be truly shocked.What matters more, is recovering from „sell the (good GDP) news“ as stated before the data with the still hot PCE one. Premarket S&P 500 gains are gone, and now it‘ll be up to getting Powell out of the way. Positive seasosnality is still there, but as per the earlier shared update, dust has to settle first in this largely neutral week where we make the bottom before launching higher in the final 2-3 weeks of Dec. The daily levels given yesterday, are still valid today.The real action is though in precious metals and commodities where even the greatly vulnerable (to upcoming declines in economic activity, i.e. recession) crude oil is seeing solid gains. Silver, copper and gold are predictably scoring and extending gains, with miners in the tow (i.e. no red flags) on the inflation data. So sorry for all those who followed permabears‘ siren songs about imminent drops that just can‘t and won‘t materialize to a meaningful degree. Real assets, similar to 1970s, are undergoing a secular shift, and the recognition as measured e.g. in relation to the stock market, isn‘t yet there. So much more price appreciation to come – and we needn‘t wait truly long for that! (Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. I can‘t stress that enough as there also intraday profit opportunities that I cover on the go via Twitter.

S&P 500 recovered from China uncertainty, keeping right below 4,000 until Williams and Bullard reiterated sticky inflation and high rates views. Reiterated – not brought fresh and unexpected information. Still, stocks and much of the rest declined sharply, and even the 3,960s support was tested. It held, and overnight crawl higher began. VIX is slowly picking up, market breadth deteriorated, but Russell 2000 isn‘t in capitulation mode. Neither are my favorite Friday mentioned sectors. While I‘m not a raging short-term bull, I acknowledge the very solid medium-term prospects for the stock market rally to continue, especially over the final 2-3 weeks of the year. Markets are welcoming the decelerating inflation, and willing to bet against the hawkish Fed rhetoric in the short-term. Running on borrowed time, but running still.Note crude oil and precious metals with copper – turning up on yet another China easing rumor. Should it turn out true, it would be powerful, but for now let‘s count with muted, positive effect on the ebbing and flowing real assets. More up than down as the sensitivity to tight Fed rhetoric and moves decreases.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,010 will again be a daily stumbling block, but it would be encouraging to reach it on or before GDP tomorrow – then, there is Powell to recover from, his effect is likely to be bearish. Bulls don‘t want to see 3,960s give way. I‘m not yet looking to 4,040 – this will be a tough sideways week regardless of positive seasonality.Credit MarketsThe degree to which HYG gets its act together today, will be most telling – as in determining the short-term direction this week Worst case, low 3,940s are second line of support, but I doubt we get there at all.

S&P 500 keeps nibbing at 4,040 and while rejected Friday and before, this level would be eventually overcome. Low 4,010s are the support, and the remaining key data of 2022 shouldn‘t force a lasting break. Of course, unless China uncertainty strikes the way it did over the weekend – Asian session understandably took the bulk of the hit but the rush to bonds appears receding for now. Even if S&P 500 buyers would be overpowered right next, the Q4 rally isn‘t over – the headline dust only needs to settle.Market breadth is improving, VIX is revealing retreating fears, and in general we‘re back to summer bets on less restrictive Fed. Just like back then the negative quarterly GDP print drew focus to the recession now predictions (didn‘t happen), the latest retreat in inflation (with more, lot more to come) is giving rise to similar bets.Even if the Fed goes only 50bp in Dec (as anticipated long ago) and 25bp in Jan, that‘s still a headwind – it‘ll tip the real economy into recession, no matter how slow they are planning to go now. 5% year end or 5.50% after Mar FOMC – either will do the trick. Yield curve has twice inverted, housing feels that, manufacturing is sputtering, and labor market posture (tightness or hotness, call it whatever you please) will change. Tech layoffs are only a harbinger.What does it mean for stocks now? We‘re still moving higher before recession goes after earnings. 4,065 – 4,070 followed by even 4,130, are my key levels to watch in the weeks ahead.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe real resistance is a bit above the 200-day moving average. The spring is coiled, and ready – it‘ll more probably happen on Wednesday‘s GDP than on Tuesday‘s consumer confidence. Sectors featured Friday will do great.Credit MarketsThe retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds will continue – Friday was a welcome reprieve. Loaded and ready to go higher in support of the stock market rally.

S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out.If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe chart is still strong, and 3,958 shouldn‘t really come into danger – the time is to gather strength for the final 2-3 weeks of this year, and to run (higher). 4,040 getting out of the way, determines the speed and path of the upswing. 4,010s is the first line of support.Credit MarketsThe retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds will continue even as today‘s premarket progress has been reversed, and then some. Bonds haven‘t peaked, and neither have cyclicals or tech within this bear market rally in stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals surely give an appearance of the lows being in, and now are in the process of making higher highs and higher lows. Note the often written about decreasing sensitivity to rate hikes and at times hawkish rhetoric – economic slowdown with dollar getting challenged, that‘s an elixir that copper also likesCrude OilOil bulls better clear back above $80 again, but the short-term chart technicals look slated against. I‘m willing to sit out the setback - while combined with precious metals, copper and stocks, this portfolio should win the day together.

S&P 500 did slowly grind higher, and the lower volume isn‘t an issue as bonds confirmed amply. The risk-on turn continues, driven by value with tech still saving its bullets. Anyway, the retreat in long-dated yields isn‘t creating headwinds, an no matter the deteriorating earnings, the time to turn really bearish on S&P 500 and Nasdaq hasn‘t come.Not even the array of events already in and still to culminate with the Fed minutes, is to throw the buyers off balance. Yes, fears of a significant downswing are there, but I‘m not looking for one to take us into 3,8xx values – it‘s actually about how fast we clear the 4,010s and especially 4,040 that would determine how far this Q4 rally can reach. Its best days are ahead, in Dec respecting seasonality patterns and enjoying the 50bp hike only.The dollar is under pressure, long end of the curve down, yet commodities aren‘t firing on all cylinders. The price cap uncertainty is taking its toll on oil while natgas enjoys seasonally and fundamentally strong showing. Copper is likewise to reverse higher the way silver found easy to do. Oil stocks and miners aren‘t panicking – quite to the contrary, and that‘s what counts most. Cryptos aren‘t making here a bottom – just working to suck in buyers before ultimately going lower – the adventurous and patient can act.

S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNasdaq is nicely primed to take the cue, and help S&P 500 higher in the coming microrotation caused by further retreat in long-term yields. I still say that 4,000 are on the chopping block this week.Credit MarketsDaily pause in bonds that doesn‘t look like getting resolved to the upside and dragging risk assets along. Contracting volume equals a bigger move is readied, and odds are it would lead higher.

S&P 500 bears couldn‘t follow through, and the bond market downswing looks tired – starting off a risk-on base, never quite flipping risk-off. Perhaps best of all, tech saved its bullets, and is ready to join when TLT comes back and erases Friday‘s modest decline on low volume. The usual „suspects“ continue doing well – energy, healthcare, consumer staples, materials and industrials – best picks for what‘s to come in the remaining part of this rally.It can and still will go on – all the mixed Fed messaging in the prior week won‘t stop it, signs of decelerating inflation would continue popping up (to accompany PPI) while speculation would continue as to when exactly would a recession arrive. Approaching, not yet here except for housing, manufacturing etc that feel the pain already – remember, job market is the last to roll over (non-farm payrolls – unemployment claims are actually leading). The gyrating bets on Fed taking its foot off the pedal, are the ingredient that can power stocks higher before earnings start to bite next year.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFake breakdown was indeed the result of what I wrote here Friday morning. 4,000 are on the chopping block this week.Credit MarketsFor now, both the retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds, can continue. Still a lot of instituitional money on the sidelines that needs to be invested before year end – both in stocks and bonds.Gold, Silver and MinersThis doesn‘t look like the end of a major countertrend rally – higher highs have been made while fresh lows… not exactly. The tide has turned, and precious metals would focus increasingly more on the high debt servicing costs in anticipation of yet another Fed turn (in support of the economy and fiscal deficits that would grow during recessions) no matter whether 5% or 5.50% Fed funds rate is reached after Mar FOMC – see how little decline happend from Jul lows and where rates were back then.

S&P 500 bulls came back, 3,910 support held, and the dollar was unable to hold on to intraday gains really. In the European morning, I doubted the bearish shift materializing later today as the Fed speakers‘ risk-off momentum did wear off already yesterday. Precious metals are indeed leading the charge among real assets, and I‘m still not writing off crude oil. S&P 500 looks likely to conquer the low 4,010s today, which would flip the daily chart distinctly bullish again. Paying off not to panic – the Fed‘s ability to tighten in the face of slowing economy, is correctly being doubted – 4.50% Fed funds rate year end is still a great tightening achievement but stocks are willing to run higher in its face. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Fake breakdown on low volume attracting no sellers – that would be the most likely conclusion after today‘s closing bell. Credit Markets HYG posture is bound to improve further today – the downswing was bought, and white body candle awaits today while TLT more or less erases yesterday‘s decline. Gold, Silver and Miners We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will likely hold on to and extend today‘s premarket gains. Silver is still recharging batteries, but will recapture $22 with ease. Crude Oil Oil downswing appears overdone, but unless $82.50 is recaptured and WTIC starts outperforming especially base metals, the short-term outlook is tricky. Oil stocks not joining in the slide, is though positive – so, I‘m not turning bearish.

S&P 500 bulls didn‘t close conclusively while neither bonds nor the dollar pressured them much. Today, the manufacturing data confirmed my earlier point that a manufacturing recession is inevitable following yield curve inversions – so, more deterioration. It‘s though the Fed speakers that are being feared today – the dollar and yields are enjoying a reprieve even though the dollar upswing would prove temporary as I don‘t favor 75bp hike in Dec. The momentum is though with the bears today – risk-off session awaits.Remember the one wish for yesterday? Markets didn‘t deliver any daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year – quite to the contrary.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookWe didn‘t keep above 3,958, and are unlikely to return there before the week is over – judging by the premarket today. Much depends upon the closing volume and candle shape, upon the degree to which tech is (or isn‘t) able to shake off the pressure today.Credit MarketsWill bonds buy into the hawkish Fed messaging, or will they shake it off by the close of tomorrow? Again, volume would offer a clue as to where this unfolding downswing stops.Gold, Silver and MinersWe haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will recover from the risk-off whiff that would extend here too – silver at $21 is cheap, and wouldn‘t suffer the same mid-Oct setback this month, just look how well the miners progressed since.Crude OilOil stocks warrant some short-term caution, but together with crude oil, have better days ahead – returning above $90 before this month is over easily.

S&P 500 hasn‘t truly reversed yesterday – corrections are still to be bought, and the retreat in yields is especially helpful to tech as I wrote about extensively on Monday. The long end of the curve is in the stabilization with a bullish bias mode, putting pressure on the dollar, and no amount of hawkish assurances by Fed speakers has stood in the way. I‘m not afraid of the stalling value and cyclicals – healthcare looks ready to move higher again.When it comes to retail sales and its effect on stocks, I‘m looking for the bulls to prevail in the end. The market breadth is still good, and VIX conducive to further gains after some trepidation. As 4,010s have been broken, 3,973 is likely to hold (if anything, 3,958 is waiting in the wings). The daily outlook is for relatively narrow range with an upward bias for prices.And that translates into precious metals as well, where $1,752 is the first support for gold, and silver ready to defend the $22 handle, which means that gold wouldn‘t really swing below $1,765 (not even theoretically) let alone give up much of intraday gains today – I‘m looking for crude oil to join and return back above $87.50 while copper does away with at least a third of its premarket downswing. Meanwhile, the crypto fallout continues, with Ethereum getting into headlines…One wish for today? Some daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAs long as we keep above the above mentioned supports, S&P 500 with Nasdaq are poised to extend gains throughout this week. - the path of least resistance is still up, and 4,040 will be overcome.Credit MarketsStill risk-on, no warning sign in bonds – the retreat in long-dated yields is indeed continuing this week, and would continue over the nearest weeks as well.Gold, Silver and MinersThis has been and still is a very bullish chart, one that got confirmed with a powerful upswing that‘s not about to pause much. Precious metals are to enjoy the weakening dollar as much as commodities, with silver learding gold.

S&P 500 reversed lower before the closing bell, but the low volume took away from the move‘s credibility. Only the bond market was more pessimistic in its close, however the USD reverxing premarket gains into solid red, continues hinting at more upside in stocks – no matter the manufacturing and PPI data today (retail sales tomorrow would be more conducive than these two).For today, tech is likely to do better than value, which attracted rising selling pressure yesterday. The retreat in yields is likely to cushion primarily the beleaguered tech and communications, taking the daily spotlight from real assets. I am not looking for a sizable bullish move today in precious metals or oil – stocks will provide more opportunities.4,010s are likely to provide resistance while 3,973 remains the support that‘s increasingly less likely to be jeopardized today. 4,040s are more probable - I‘m looking for risk-on to win after the open, which would would help real assets intraday too, but would be followed by some selling before close again.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 confirmed Thursday‘s sharp upswing with more strength, and that‘s great for all of our long portfolio bets. Smashing turn continues in a taking no prisoners style (fresh China corona rules easing speculation helped) – the two key fixtures propelling markets higher, are the sharp USD downswing that I called for in Oct, and stabilization in yields – a steep decline taking e.g. the 10-year yield to 3.82% from above 4.20%.Such an environment is conducive for the badly beaten tech and communications to outperform value on a short-term basis, in essence for as long as the retreat in yields last. Industrials, materials and oil stocks wouldn‘t do badly in the least either, perhaps financials as well. Also, it launches precious metals and commodities out of their sideways consolidation to the upper echelons. Yes, Thursday was an important medium-term catalyst, with strongly bullish implications. While till Oct, you were fine with cash, shorting paper, and long energy with USD, now it‘s the greenback that would suffer more often than not while everything else (apart from the tectonic event overshadowing crypto) mostly rises.Why do I say only medium-term?Remember we didn‘t get any Fed pivot, any Fed pause – anhd today‘s cautious Fed words confirm that. The bets are merely on deceleration of rate hikes, correctly so. Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. More rate hikes are to come in 2023 – the Fed doesn‘t sound to be done, the risks of more tightening are clearly there. The real economy isn‘t yet in a recession, and in Fed‘s view inflation isn‘t defeated. Labor market remains tight, and should it prove a source mirroring heightened inflation expectations (think households), the Fed will take its aim. This Q4 rally that would last into Jan, is running on borrowed time, with strong short-term momentum, but would face the fate of the summer rally. This European morning‘s outlook is being confirmed at the onset of US session.Today‘s analysis is exceptionally free for everyone to see the typical extensive length content and scope – in recognition of a smashing prior week, one for the record books.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSolid S&P 500 and Nasdaq upswings with volume behind them – the momentum is strong, and likely to continue through Nov without much of a hiccup.Credit MarketsStill risk-on, no warning sign in bonds – the retreat in long-dated yields should continue over the nearest weeks.Gold, Silver and MinersThis is a very bullish chart, one that got confirmed with a powerful upswing that‘s not yet pausing much. Precious metals are to enjoy the weakening dollar as much as commodities, with silver learding gold.Crude OilCrude oil has been bidding its time over the week just gone, but it‘s well positioned to extend gains by breaking out of the recent long consolidation. Note the symmetry to the left and right of the Sep bottom – pretty nicely coiled spring now.CopperCopper is surging, and my Oct long call has been vindicated – the red metal is leading the commodities sector, which is an important sign.Bitcoin and EthereumEncouraging short-term sign is the double bottom holding, but I‘m not counting on this being the ultimate crypto low.

S&P 500 neatly surprised on the upside as it moved in line with yesterday‘s detailed battle plan - strong risk-on day followed. Value was in the lead, volume rose strongly as quite a few CPI internals combined with high Oct 2021 reading to compare against, made for a jubilant (over)reaction in betting the Fed won‘t be as hawkish as Powell projected during the latest conference. It‘s not yet the time though to dampen the bullish spirits, or to spring the long-term giant bull trap which just isn‘t there if you‘re thinking in terms of days or weeks. This is still the time of a Q4 rally, with a fine Dec rally carrying over into Jan ahead.Bond yields retreated and the dollar cratered as those 50bp Dec rate hike bets that I was presenting for weeks as most likely, get acknowledged by the markets – to the cost of USD bulls. Money is coming out of the safe haven hiding place, and markets are still (the Fed is likely to slow down the pace of hikes – we are quite far in the rate raising cycle) celebrating yesterday‘s stunner to the many expecting a hot print (thankfully not you, I had been as clear as always).The bulls‘ objective for today is to consolidate comforatbly above the 3,960 support, which should be easy given the dollar‘s retreat by another 1% today. On the upside, taking a bite at 4,000s. So far so good. Precious metals rejoiced, and their bullish grind higher is set to continue at its own pace – I‘m still favoring silver medium-term over gold, regardless of the two changing the baton today. Note also the ease with which crude oil returned to $90, and copper strongly bucking the daily silver direction. These are all very fine long core portfolio positions to have while in cryptos the FTX dust hasn‘t settled yet, very far from it (sensitive to surprises both ways).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Credit MarketsThat‘s the key chart for today – the HYG long lower knot is a bit disconcerting, but should faciliate any meaningful setback today unless TLT confirms. And the long end of the curve is still trying to retreat some more today – this decline in yields though would get questioned, that‘s a matter of time, but no serious challenge would be fielded today. There is a reasonably fine close to great week ahead!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookI‘m leaning towards the thesis that we haven‘t seen a genuine reversal yesterday.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

Making a fine run, S&P 500 retreated from a vulnerable level of 3,865, but the bulls didn‘t give up totally since. Still, this tough 3,848 – 3,855 resistance held, the breakout was rejected, and another attempt has to wait for the CPI aftermath. One good argument for a lackluster session today is the likely (dead cat) bounce in the dollar as the correction hasn‘t played out yet after yet another day deep in the red, which would coincide with a slight move higher in yields exerting pressure namely on tech. In short, stock bulls would be on the defensive today, and unlikely to make solid and lasting progress.Just as I have written yesterday, 3,815 has to hold as support while already 3,845 would be biting today should the buyers make it that far in the first place, and:(…) 3,848 – 3,855 represents solid resistance that can be reasonably overcome only on a sharp risk-on turn in bonds … – still, the medium-term trend is up, and it‘s only a matter of time (more likely facilitated by Thursday‘s CPI confirming the notion of inflation peak being in, than midterms) before this level gets broken to the upside. Note that stocks are unable to get much support from retreating oil prices (WTIC moved from $93 to $88), and natgas is below $6. Even the highly encouraging precious metals run on increasing volume is undergoing a (healthy, must be stated, healthy) correction today, but the winds of change are blowing, with especially silver being a winning proposition. Copper continues confirming the breakout attempt from the monthslong consolidation with decreasing sensitivity to the rate hikes. And here we are, late in the tightening cycle, with CPI tomorrow likely to feed into Dec 50bp angle, helping crude oil to return above $90 and USD remaining on the defensive though not as badly as cryptos where the dust isn‘t settled yet.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 closed on declining volume higher yesterday, but bonds weren‘t truly confirming for much of the session. Still, the table was set for the break higher, and I didn‘t hesitate in calling for it even in absence of bond or USD confirmation. Till the closing bell, the bonds chart posture improved somewhat, leaving the stock market upswing more well rounded than it would otherwise have been if you looked only at sectoral strength. The dollar went down a bit too much, bit too fast yesterday, and even though real assets (with copper bucking the trend today as much as it did yesterday with its close in the red) are modestly down on a less than decent USD upswing. Crypto daily woes remain isolated to the FTX (FTX-Binance) trigger, and are unlikely to spill over into other markets. Precious metals and copper offered a pleasant sight for the bulls, amply justifying my change of tune in the weeks gone by and still to come – note that even gold consolidated on declining volume, proving that there isn‘t much willingness to sell. As for today‘s S&P 500 levels, 3,815 has to hold as support while 3,848 – 3,855 represents solid resistance that can be reasonably overcome only on a sharp risk-on turn in bonds, which doesn‘t look to get a catalyst during today‘s session. Let‘s see about a possible pleasant surprise – still, the medium-term trend is up, and it‘s only a matter of time (more likely facilitated by Thursday‘s CPI confirming the notion of inflation peak being in, than midterms) before this level gets broken to the upside. This explains today‘s title „More of the Same“ = „Grinding Higher, not a Turnaround Tuesday“. This run can continue alongside the commodities and precious metals upswings, but the real asset one would prove more durable as in Q1 2023 stocks would look around and ask „based on what have we been rallying“. Crude oil would be comfortably in the triple digits by then... Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have done a lot better – and I mean especially those multinationals with a high ratio of foreign earnings. Tech though merely complied with the almost obligatory upswing – it‘s the formerly leading $FAANG stocks that are still most vulnerable, and especially so when the year end tax loss selling kicks in in the final two weeks of December. An underperformer, simply put.For now, markets were lifted by the ongoing speculation about possible China‘s zero covid policies easing, and that concerns especially those related stocks such as BABA or real assets. If I were to pick a single best thing to have happened Friday, it would be the rise in yield spreads on a reasonably positive advance-decline line move.Now, let‘s look at the headline reversal – once the existing China policies were confirmed to be maintained, risk-off was expected to raise its head again, yet didn‘t get too far. Already before the open, we‘re trading above my 3,780s level marking the daily bias as either bullish above, or bearish (consolidation only unless confirmed by outside markets) below. Cryptos are likely to confirm limited downside potential today if you look at Bitcoin at $20,700 currently (lower knot in the making).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 5 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersTremendous precious metals upswing that wasn‘t sold into during the day really – this is a great start, but much work remains to be done in overcoming Sep, let alone Aug highs in gold (silver would be flying by then), against the backdrop of Powell saying that now he sees the target Fed funds rate higher than he did in Sep (meaning higher than 4.50%). This makes for anything but one way upswing from here.Crude OilI haven‘t been featuring this chart lately often, because everything is going so well for us here – triple digit oil is coming back indeed this year still, and SPR drawdowns are over while OPEC+ isn‘t really in a position to increase production.CopperA week ago, I wrote that copper would join precious metals, and so it did. The chart is still bullish, the move is driven by China, and the high volume very promising – at least to the degree of a fresh support above late Oct highs being established.

S&P 500 has good odds of having reached a local bottom, and performance around my yesterday‘s level of 3,752 would reveal the index direction for today. As for non-farm payrolls, I‘m looking for the number not to disappoint, and to have in the end a somewhat positive effect on stocks. The initial worry about a positive number implying the Fed gets more leevay in being hawkish, needs to wear off first.What‘s remarkable about today, is that the no bond yields retreat (to the contrary, yields are up) is still sending the dollar down while precious metals and commodities are sharply higher. The lion‘s share of the explanation could be a fundamental one – Saudi Arabia has declared China to be its reliable partner, which isn‘t a stunner to anyone paying attention, including to the geographic destination of Saudi Arabia oil where Asian customers rule.The earlier prediction of real assets benefiting more than stocks as the S&P 500 weighed down by the troubled tech (check Monday‘s extensive article for outperforming sectors), is playing out in plain sight – and cryptos are likely to do likewise well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 was indeed sluggish into the FOMC only to welcome the statement – and then the presser came, with acentuated hawkishness that did sink not only stocks, but also bonds and real assets. The encouraging reprieve on the long end of the curve is giving way to further flattening, which only serves to highlight tight money circumstances. In such an environment, the dollar thrives, and another risk-off day is what we‘re on the doorstep of. The encouraging dialing back of Dec rate hike to only 50bp (assigned 57% probability right after the statement), looks history as bond traders are forcing higher yields across the board today. On one hand, the impact of rate hikes seems to be generating less fear (selling) since the Jackson Hole and Sep FOMC, on the other hand, it invalidates prior constructive moves in bonds, where especially the long-dated ones look to have bottomed in October. It‘s at least reasonable stability if not a modest upswing (or a more decent one in recognition of slowing economy, which isn‘t yet slowing down fast enough to force yields down on this account) that stocks need for a sustainable Q4 rally – rally that should still continue, and reach my 3,950 year end target. Volatility and options activity isn‘t though painting a bullish daily picture in the least – bonds are again doing the tightening for the Fed, and it shows in commodities, precious metals and finally cryptos as well. Relatively resilient is of course only oil, and perhaps copper can show limited bouts of relative strength here and there too. When it comes to daily S&P 500 levels, the bulls want to hold 3,710s, and see any rebound attempts accompanied by risk-on turns in bonds, and I‘m looking more towards TLT today. Overcoming 3,780 seems a pipe dream. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features two.

S&P 500 was rejected at 3,920s, but bonds didn‘t paint a disastrous picture throughout the day. The dollar‘s long lower knot seems to favor the bulls once the FOMC dust settles. I count on the Fed‘s 75bp hike and overall message to be hawkish, but it looks to be losing some punch since the Jackson Hole and Sep FOMC, which is visible in precious metals.Yesterday‘s economic data fed into the hawkish Fed fears, and the premarket session is continuing on the same note, with stocks, bonds, commodities and the dollar all declining – except for precious metals.It seems the initial reaction to the monetary policy statement would be about more selling, and should Powell be unequivocal, blunt and concise in both the statement and press conference, more selling would follow. This scenario though looks less probable to me as I favor the buyers to step in on a less than totally hawkish delivery.The real economy is slowing, and even though core inflation remains stubborn and job market tight, the Fed would prefer not to deliver an uberhawkish message, but one consistent with their wish to keep the Fed funds rate at slightly restrictive level (that‘s 4.5% year end, meaning 50bp in Dec) for a significant amount of time as they wish to avoid tripping the economy into recession, which another 75bp hike in Dec would not only do, but hasten (it‘s also about the path of hard landing that markets are discounting already).As regards commodities and precious metals, they would benefit as much as stocks from the less hawkish than feared stance. Bonds are cautious, and there is no sign of panic. Just as in stocks, the initial downside (which has historically lasted even into the day after), is likely to be at least partially reversed to the upside already today.I‘ll of course be commenting live on Twitter the upcoming market and Fed moves.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 indeed entered yesterday in a corrective mode, which turned out to be a shallow downswing. USD and yields moved up – a bit too much to my liking, in a move that I saw as fake, especially when the closing prices are considered. And these are being duly reversed today, in what is increasingly looking as a solid risk-on day.Today, we shouldn‘t really move below 3,900, and my first target of 3,935 should turn out a piece of cake for the bulls today – such was the technical outlook before JOTLS openings and ISM manufacturing PMIs – these didn‘t disappoint, and thus are fueling the hawkish Fed bets, with bonds obliging and duly giving up much of intraday gains. I‘m looking for this gyration to prove temporary, and for stocks to work first on stabilizing and then on recovering lost ground. The fresh objective is to return back into 3,900s.Note though the strong silver upswing which I had been vocal about for quite a while already – the white metal is joined by copper, which I looked forward for seeing as a sign of short-term confirmation. The hit after the incoming data would prove temporary – even if cryptos aren‘t participating Tuesday, which is a little red flag which I think we can afford to ignore – I‘m not looking for a risk-off reversal today. Just a setback that has to be worked out, and will be. Asset prices broadly speaking would return to benefiting from the retreat in yields that‘s serves to take the wind of USD sails.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 didn‘t look back after Friday‘s opening bell - poor AAPL, AMZN guidance stemming from the cloud business chiefly (AMD, INTC, MSFT noting cooling in personal computing) was ignored, and the bull flag that I told you about in the premium section, was duly resolved to the upside.Bonds confirmed as far as their risk-on posture goes, but HYG looks in need of a little daily consolidation while long-term yields need more time basing as the Fed and foreigners have largely vacated the market – that goes chiefly for Japan, Europe, and also China in need of supporting their own currencies or making energy purchases, which is meaningfully impacting respective trade balances. The dollar though looks medium-term vulnerable here – the upswing of last two days leaves something to be desired, the greenback has potentially topped, or at least (this one is sure) has entered a corrective mode.The current era of tight money is best illustrated by the degree of yield curve inversion, and how the short end of the curve is still pushing the Fed to tighten not only by 75bp in Nov, but by the same amount in Dec too. Having looked at recent central bank moves (Australia and Canada lowering the pace of rate increases while only ECB tightened in line with expectations), the Fed would probably though relent after Nov as well (the cracks overseas are growing, debt servicing costs in the States inexorably rising, and currency crises abroad looming), which has implications for all asset classes discussed below.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 4 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals would rejoice over the dollar consolidation, and the only question is whether USD needs to pause in its upswing, or has to really correct lower – the odds are we would get a greenback downswing before midterms. Add some focus on waning growth, and not on inflation fighting, and the bullish bias manifests.CopperCopper will join precious metals, and its chart posture is looking fine. The only watchout is should USD swing to new highs, which isn‘t though immediately (this year) likely.

S&P 500 was pulled lower overnight on poor AAPL, AMZN guidance even though current earnings didn‘t disappoint much – odds were any S&P 500 setback would be bought. The premarket downswing brought stocks once again almost to the initial low point (just four points above the waiting buy order) only to see them recover close to unchanged. Forward guidance was shaken off – the effect upon earnings has indeed to wait till early 2023.Market breadth has been improving, cyclicals and smallcaps are leading, which is consistent with my thesis that the U.S. is still best placed to weather the storm. The Q4 rally can proceed, core PCE isn‘t to rattle stocks, and I‘m dealing with namely precious metals and crude oil perspectives (more sensitive right now to Fed tightening prospects) in the chart section.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today long) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 4 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still struggling even when dollar and yields retreat, knowing full well the Fed didn‘t back off – their time hasn‘t yet come. Silver can be counted on to move together with copper higher, but low stockpiles aren‘t yet biting enough. Just some more focus on inflation and not on inflation fighting, is required.Crude OilCrude oil is being led by oil stocks, and WTIC can think about taking at least on $95 before the year is over.

S&P 500 has been rejected at 3,900, but is showing premarket fine resilience in light of the META disappointment – and AAPL is reporting today. Sectoral market breadth is simply improving, value and cyclicals are keeping stocks afloat no matter the coming tech earnings (that covers AMZN too) with their possible gyrations offering buying opportunities.Bonds have retained risk-on posture even though HYG was somewhat rejected. The premarket positioning is cautious, with the dollar retracing a good deal of this week‘s decline – advance quarterly GDP data is unlikely to trigger a selloff in stocks. The sentiment today is though undeniably cautious as precious metals, commodities and cryptos reveal.What‘s a clear warning sign for stocks short-term, is the combination of declining VIX and also the advance-decline line. While META didn‘t exert that much influence, the coming two days could test the bulls adequately – with still relatively fine incoming economic data postponing that challenge for later today and tomorrow. Make no mistake though, the horizon is slowly darkening while silver followed by oil, copper first of all, and then gold with confirming miners, retain the highest medium- and long-term potential.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 made the move, breaking above the key 3,795 – 3,810 zone. Given the outside markets, the pullback would represent a buying opportunity, and the MSFT, GOOG earnings have indeed provided a profit taking opportunity as I warned about well before yesterday. Now, we‘re looking at the depth of the pullback and depending upon the degree of disappointment over new home sales later today, for a possible return to the low 3,800s – that would present a buying opportunity for the 500-strong index as smallcaps are leading higher, USD is wobbling as I told you on Monday it would, and yields with real assets and cryptos have dealt in resolutely with the premarket weakness yesterday.After wild gyrations when I forecasted hot consumer inflation figures that would crater the markets, and me going bullish the day after CPI (on Oct 14) in line with the extensive Oct 10 analysis predicting the Q4 rally to start on the CPI release, the hypothesis was confirmed by the markets even as it dealt me a few whipsaws since. The Q4 rally is underway, and I‘m just stating the obvious that the dips (including those to scare you out) are to be bought – and should one happen later today, that would be a gift.Yesterday‘s performance in oil stocks confirms that real assets are to join in the upswing even if miners are somewhat lagging and copper did struggle yesterday. Cryptos reflect and confirm the risk-on turn as established (didn‘t take too long since I talked their bullish bias on Monday), long-dated yields have topped for now, and dollar‘s troubles (also featured in Monday‘s analysis) are to provide tailwinds.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today long) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features two.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 did overcome the pattern of lower highs, and the bulls have the upper hand now. No need to wait for three consecutive closes in stating the obvious. The poor guidance of MSFT and miss by GOOG provide a welcome justfication for retreat.Credit MarketsBonds are now confirming the upswing in stocks, and the top in yields looks to have been reached – during early 2023 though, I am looking for Treasuries to resume their decline once again, but first let the decent upswing on deteriorating real economy prospects (before the Fed‘s pause / pivot) come.

Today‘s S&P 500 analysis will be short as the price action is unfolding as anticipated – stocks made an inroad into the key 3,795 – 3,810 zone (actually a couple of them), and after prolonged overnight consolidation right below, turned somewhat south only to move back up again. So much for price behavior in the vicinity of strong resistance – we have to wait still whether it plays out later on as favored by the odds.Intermarket though, the modest 500-strong index decline is a bit odd as it‘s accompanied by a retreat in both yields and the dollar (that alone would favor higher stock prices). The USD behavior isn‘t that strange though as I‘ve mentioned the greenback within yesterday‘s extensive analysis:(…) What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.What was a consolidation before another upswing, risks becoming a period when the dollar starts declining, which is a recognition that the Fed and most global central banks‘ tightening strains created and manifesting, won‘t remain overseas, but would reach the States as well. While not enough cracks are emerging, both the U.S. and global leading economic indicators are projecting a picture of guaranteed recession – with the only questions being its severity and duration.The dollar‘s daily showing isn‘t thus so surprising – at least TLT declined into the close yesterday. What I would be watching out for keenly today, is dialing back of risk sentiment, which should be seen also in commodities, precious metals and cryptos ideally, not just in various junk bonds. Quoting again from the above Monday‘s analysis:(…) Technically for S&P 500, unless the 3,795 – 3,810 zone is broken, the bears hold the upper hand. The appearing cracks, the financial stress in the system as shown in CDS or USD swap facilities being drawn, would hold the upper hand in this headline sensitive risk-on rally that‘s trying to front run the Fed without evidence that the Fed is actually at least pausing. That would prove the (otherwise seasonally justified rally‘s) undoing, with more pain to come early 2023.The contact and price behavior at the resistance zone before AAPL reports, would be key for the fate of this – by now feeble still – couter trend rally within the context of a larger bear market. Premarket action in real assets bodes well for the bears in stocks so far (3,680, even better 3,660 is the support that needs to be taken out for the bears to regain initiative even before Thursday), and I‘ll be watching and commenting on bonds and forex action as the regular session starts.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is the most likely route they‘ll take, markets have started favoring 75bp in Dec, and its possibility has been on Friday dialed back to 50% only. That‘s hardly a pause or pivot to me, but the speculation was enough to carry risk-on sentiment reliably into the close. What I am questioning is whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when long-dated Treasuries still haven‘t found a bottom as foreigners are forced to sell in dramatic reversion of seemingly forever trade surpluses and high energy prices, which in case of natural gas can‘t be as regionally comparable as in oil. Together with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, this has implications for the debt markets, which I discussed both in mid Sep and in the above linked article.The turn in junk bonds is fine for the bulls, but similarly to the S&P 500, it‘s still characterized by a pattern of lower highs after the summer rally fizzled out. It‘s only the Russell 2000 which has managed to keep above the Jun lows – and that confirms the rightful conclusion that the U.S. are best positioned at the moment still to weather the storm. What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.What was a consolidation before another upswing, risks becoming a period when the dollar starts declining, which is a recognition that the Fed and most global central banks‘ tightening strains created and manifesting, won‘t remain overseas, but would reach the States as well. While not enough cracks are emerging, both the U.S. and global leading economic indicators are projecting a picture of guaranteed recession – with the only questions being its severity and duration. Thursday‘s batch of economic data that I highlighted for you the day before, confirm that.Also the earnings per share for the 500-strong index paints a bearish long-term picture – the current $245 figure would be dialed back to $190, perhaps even $180s, and that would have consequences on the valuation multiple for stocks as well. After the week just in, it can be said that the percentage of companies beating estimates, and the magnitude of a positive surprise, is historically disappointing – quite so in financials. No matter how well MSFT and GOOG would do next week, they are to be balanced by META, with AMZN being the wildcard. Thursday‘s AAPL is arguably the best bearish catalyst out there next week, and before its time comes, we may have to deal with fake (or real) breakout attempts of the key zone mentioned right below, making it sensible to marginally adjust the stop-loss in place.Technically for S&P 500, unless the 3,795 – 3,810 zone is broken, the bears hold the upper hand. The appearing cracks, the financial stress in the system as shown in CDS or USD swap facilities being drawn, would hold the upper hand in this headline sensitive risk-on rally that‘s trying to front run the Fed without evidence that the Fed is actually at least pausing. That would prove the (otherwise seasonally justified rally‘s) undoing, with more pain to come early 2023.I‘m covering the impact on precious metals and commodities in the rich chart section – suffice to say that the former appear to have made quite a turn Friday while oil would keep grinding higher, and copper recovering while cryptos are to continues sideways for now. These moves are as much about the Fed and the dollar as about inflation whose core components aren‘t rolling over really.Today‘s analysis has been one of those extensive ones – keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersIt‘s not only about the steep rise in volume, but about the miners confirming both on a daily basis and since early Sep. First it‘ll be silver, then gold with miners who would turn – we‘re close to the opening stage in the upswing, but not there yet unless the Fed nears its pause. Too early yet to talk about PMs decoupling.Crude OilCrude oil is well bid, won‘t decline more no matter what‘s going on with the SPR. Oil stocks outperformance demonstrates that beneath the surface, all is well for crude oil investors – the era of constricted supply will be increasingly more having the upper hand over the quarters and years ahead as exploration and drilling are lagging behind, not to mention geopolitics.CopperCopper upswing is done basing as much as precious metals are – it‘ll keep basing with an upward bias, rewarding patient investors.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain on guard, but the technical posture is improving. Not yet time to jump in, but the dips are being bought, providing more than a range play opportunity to the patient ones.

S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities. Crypto is also cautious here, so there is no reason to change my medium-term prognosis for any asset class based on yesterday‘s session. Moreover, the SNAP earnings disappointed stocks, and coupled with (politely stated) mixed and weakening economic data yesterday, fueled the premarket decline that‘s likely not to be invalidated by the choppy action we‘re seeing in stocks still before the opening bell.This is still the time to be patient while the odds continue favoring the bears medium-term. I‘ll supplement today‘s analysis with more analytical guidance over the weekend – have a great one in advance.The levels to watch today is 3,680 for resistance, and (probably not today, but in the days ahead only) 3,595 for support. Support that‘s likely to be eventually broken because the selling pressure isn‘t slowing down materially, and bonds with the dollar continue turning up the heat.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 turned decisively lower yesterday, and the bulls were clearly rejected with their upswing attempt. No matter how HYG erased some of its intraday decline before the closing bell, TLT is still falling hard. As stated weeks ago, without stabilization on the long end of the curve, any (temporarily but still) sustainable S&P 500 rally is inconceivable. So, no Q4 rally just yet.The yesterday telegraphed key economic data came in mixed, but is leaning bearish, bearish for the real economy. Manufacturing looks slowing down, and while unemployment claims retreated on a week to week basis, I don‘t trust that – the job market would feel the heat of slowing economy and earnings (no, the reasonably OK TSLA earnings won‘t save the day, we‘re going below $200 EPS for S&P 500 if not $180s).So, stocks are set up for another day in the red, but moving at least two dozen points below the hardy 3,680 level is required to declare the bears as in the clear. Odds are we get there today with the action I am seeing in bonds.As stated yesterday:(…) Treasuries show no sign of calming down – the parabolic move in yields doesn‘t look to be over, the 10-y yield is already 4.10% premarket, and that means significant risk-off headwinds today. My key 3,735 level had been decisively broken, and the bears are in the driver‘s seat. Certainly, the NXLF earnings jubilation being sold hard and fast on second thoughts concerning revenue and guidance, is a welcome sight confronting the barrage of fresh uberbullish calls from elsewhere meeting reality.So, the S&P 500 relief rally is duly reversing, and it wasn‘t a move to get excited about – my key 3,795-3,810 zone didn‘t come into jeopardy. On the flip side, real assets are suffering as it‘s all again about yields and the dollar. Much is happening beneath the surface – the Fed swap lines providing other central banks with USD liquidity, is seeing quite some interest on a weekly basis, and I‘m not talking Switzerland and Credit Suisse only here as UK shouldn‘t be forgotten.Crude oil is better placed than gold so far, where nominal and real rates are biting (it‘s the same what‘s powering banking), but I still stand by the call of silver squeeze approaching, just give it 3-4 miliion oz max more to be removed, and the tide is to turn. The intraday reprieve in the dollar (counterintuitive given the rise in yields), is helping real assets today, and the corona quarantine length hints from China are likewise constructive. The real fireworks would come on Fed turning, or markets sensing the Fed is approaching the end of its rope, and won‘t have any other move left than to relent in the fight on inflation, and support t he economy or fix the growing cracks abroad that bear on the USA as well. Then, especially precious metals would decouple, but as I had been stating for months with respect to gold especially, the heat is on for now.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 had arguably made a local top – formed a black body candle with sizable lower knot, which I‘m looking to get follow through selling today, and on tomorrow‘s set of (likely disappointing) economic data:(…) Thursday‘s Philly Fed data is likely to surprise on the downside, housing would continue to cool, and unemployment claims to rise – these are all leading or coincident indicators while CPI is a lagging one. Hard to derive any other conclusion that the Fed would overdo it on tightening (by looking into this rear view mirror, in the steepest pace of monetary policy change since the mid 1990s). Even if they were to pause now, the effects of tightening already in would take 12 months at least to manifest in full. Hard landing is virtually baked in the cake as the Fed is less sensitive to asset price gyrations than it was in Dec 2018.This is why I can‘t be bullish at this stage, not when I see bonds pressuring the Fed to do more, when bonds are still disregarding the weakening real economy – Thursday‘s data would be the revealing catalyst of how far this relief rally off the CPI Thursday got ahead of itself.And Treasuries show no sign of calming down – the parabolic move in yields doesn‘t look to be over, the 10-y yield is already 4.10% premarket, and that means significant risk-off headwinds today. My key 3,735 level had been decisively broken, and the bears are in the driver‘s seat. Certainly, the NXLF earnings jubilation being sold hard and fast on second thoughts concerning revenue and guidance, is a welcome sight confronting the barrage of fresh uberbullish calls from elsewhere meeting reality.So, the S&P 500 relief rally is duly reversing, and it wasn‘t a move to get excited about – my key 3,795-3,810 zone didn‘t come into jeopardy. On the flip side, real assets are suffering as it‘s all again about yields and the dollar. Much is happening beneath the surface – the Fed swap lines providing other central banks with USD liquidity, is seeing quite some interest on a weekly basis, and I‘m not talking Switzerland and Credit Suisse only here as UK shouldn‘t be forgotten.Crude oil is better placed than gold so far, where nominal and real rates are biting (it‘s the same what‘s powering banking), but I still stand by the call of silver squeeze approaching, just give it 3-4 miliion oz max more to be removed, and the tide is to turn. For now, the universal rise in yields (both long and short end) is taking its toll as the Fed isn‘t blinking. Told you it wouldn‘t – not this fast.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 reversed Friday‘s decline, closing below 3,680 – the session was relatively tame, and it was the banking earnings that were instrumental in extending gains aftermarket. Little wonder with such yield spreads – even Cramer then called financials the new stars. While bonds were risk-on, outside markets can‘t be considered as nodding to this S&P 500 rally. Long-dated yields are still rising, and the HYG upswing is likely to run into the Fed still to tighten significantly in Nov and Dec bets as the short end of the curve shows.Also, far from all earnings ahead this week would allow for such risk taking appetite. Baltic Dry Index is having trouble rising further, and that reflects weaker retail demand ahead. While the consumer is still strong for now, my yesterday‘s thoughts as to earnings and sectoral strength, still apply:(…) there are still some bright spots in earnings ahead – the tech midcaps seem to be improving, financials didn‘t have a poor week – but above all, healthcare isn‘t looking bad at all. Energy stocks are still on fire, and will be even more. It would be the defensives (utilities and consumer staples) together with communications, that would be lagging ahead.The S&P 500 relief rally hasn‘t yet reversed, but it‘s hard to get excited about it unless it breaks 3,795-3,810 zone with conviction and confirmation. Bonds look very extended in the risk-on direction, and neither commodities nor precious metals exhibit the same risk appetite, not in the least. While VIX can (and will based on today‘s move) move lower, I favor more selling to appear as we approach the above meaningful resistance zone – put to call ratio is getting to complacent levels slowly but surely.Thursday‘s Philly Fed data is likely to surprise on the downide, housing would continue to cool, and unemployment claims to rise – these are all leading or coincident indicators while CPI is a lagging one. Hard to derive any other conclusion that the Fed would overdo it on tightening (by looking into this rear view mirror, in the steepest pace of monetary policy change since the mid 1990s). Even if they were to pause now, the effects of tightening already in would take 12 months at least to manifest in full. Hard landing is virtually baked in the cake as the Fed is less sensitive to asset price gyrations than it was in Dec 2018.This is why I can‘t be bullish at this stage, not when I see bonds pressuring the Fed to do more, when bonds are still disregarding the weakening real economy – Thursday‘s data would be the revealing catalyst of how far this relief rally off the CPI Thursday got ahead of itself.Precious metals and commodities are in the process of turning, and out of them all, I am of course still most bullish oil, followed by silver (due to outperform in the not too distand future) and copper. Until though the Fed monetary policy / job market catalyst arrives, prolonged basing can be expected – inflation focus going out of the main window, is what‘s required for steep gains again.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 Friday‘s session reversed the upswing so much that it calls into question the Q4 rally as having started already. Given Friday‘s slide through both 3,640s and 3,625, Thursday‘s intraday reversal must be chalked down to pre-CPI positioning, short squeeze and options activity. It would be insightful to recap last two days so as to view them in conjuction, so let‘s start with Thursday:(…) strongly rallied after a precipitous drop to 3,500s on CPI data coming in predictably above expectations. I looked for high inflation data, and especially high core CPI data, and these played into the hawkish Fed expectations, further strengthening them as the short end of the curve reveals.The selling pressure though stalled, and the modest rebound that could have rolled over in the 3,560s as I indicated was a good place for it to happen, didn‘t materialize. The sellers were swiftly overpowered, and an hour later I declared that attempt as failed, with buyers moving in quickly. Two hours after that, I talked bullish bias into the closing bell, aftermarket and premarket. S&P 500 has made good progress since, reaching 70+ points higher after the original bullish call.The ease with which supports Friday had been broken through, that HYG wasn‘t able to defend high ground better, and that the long end of the curve hasn‘t yet stabilized, speaks for more downside this week – before the rebound off even more oversold levels happens.The question is how deep we then have to go still.My opinion is less than 5% from Friday‘s close, but probably somewhat below, meaning that 3,500s would be broken after all.I‘m not raising the S&P 500 earnings per share, and the picture valuations and earnings downgrades ahead paint. Consumer is still doing relatively fine, the real economy hasn‘t dipped into a serious recession, and there are still some bright spots in earnings ahead – the tech midcaps seem to be improving, financials didn‘t have a poor week – but above all, healthcare isn‘t looking bad at all. Energy stocks are still on fire, and will be even more. It would be the defensives (utilities and consumer staples) together with communications, that would be lagging ahead.As Thursday‘s technical posture disappointed in bringing about more than a fleeting turnaround, what could prove to be such a catalyst fundamentally? Fed pivot or pause? Not near in the least. Job market data leading to speculation of a Fed pause? Wordy language that gives a dint of pivot hope without actually uttering any (Brainard or even Yellen‘s question to the financial sector)? Possibly, but not enough. Focus on slowing real economy as opposed to inflation? Yes, this is a very likely, favorite pick of mine.Precious metals and commodities are in the process of turning, and out of them all, I am of course still most bullish oil, followed by silver (due to outperform in the not too distand future) and copper. As Friday‘s performance including in cryptos shows though, the path ahead isn‘t all clear (just look at gold and miners approaching Sep lows – nominal and real rates are biting), and the dollar I have called as not to have topped, clearly hasn‘t topped – and will continue placing pressure on real assets as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 looks set to revisit Thursday‘s lows, and more – no matter the quite fine earnings last week from PEP or more than a couple of financials. While soft landing is out of the window, hard landing isn‘t here yet, and market breadth readings are quite extreme.Credit MarketsEven though HYG may easily attack Friday‘s open, it isn‘t likely out of the woods yet. Unless quality debt instruments stabilize, stock market rallies are suspect. The upcoming Q4 one would be accompanied by a decent retreat in yields, which would mirror the shift in focus from inflation to recession that I called above as the most likely turnaround catalyst.

S&P 500 strongly rallied after a precipitous drop to 3,500s on CPI data coming in predictably above expectations. I looked for high inflation data, and especially high core CPI data, and these played into the hawkish Fed expectations, further strengthening them as the short end of the curve reveals.The selling pressure though stalled, and the modest rebound that could have rolled over in the 3,560s as I indicated was a good place for it to happen, didn‘t materialize. The sellers were swiftly overpowered, and an hour later I declared that attempt as failed, with buyers moving in quickly. Two hours after that, I talked bullish bias into the closing bell, aftermarket and premarket. S&P 500 has made good progress since, reaching 70+ points higher after the original bullish call.Could this be the start of the Q4 rally pinned to start on CPI figures the preceding Monday?The technicals and seasonals would support that, the S&P 500 chart offered signs of bottoming – I had been talking about the conditions for a rally being in place, and that now it would be only about whether they get acted upon or not.And in spite of the bond market performance yesterday, it appears to be the case. Or precisely because of the performance, because of the intraday dynamics – HYG sharply recovered the opening setback, mirroring that S&P 500 upswing. It‘s not an issue that Nasdaq lagged a little – the cyclicals did well, it‘s sectorally apparent that bullish spirits have come back yesterday.I‘m indeed leaning towards this being the real Q4 rally start – still a bear market rally that would fail, but would be lasting enough to build confidence on par with the failed summer rally as I talked Monday. Daily consolidation with decent bullish bias to be seen Friday as the still okay retail data hint at, would be a welcome sight as fresh longs would enter the market. Not even the strong upswing in the dollar today is an issue – look how fine cryptos are shaking it off, and precious metals would be next in line to do so. Silver is bidding its time, but we‘re slowly approaching a sizable rally in the white metal starting. Copper is doing very fine, the yesterday opened long position is in the black already, and has turned the corner too.Crude oil is for now consolidating around the 50-day moving average, and the $92 resistance awaits – it will be easily overcome once the dollar pauses on a daily basis, but I agree that yesterday‘s WTIC upswing on low volume hints at that to happen probably not in the very opening part of next week. The nice rounded bottom with a fake breakdown is over, and black gold is climbing higher now again, slowly but surely – with natgas still bullish as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 bears managed to push prices down on declining volume, and the risk-on upswing in bonds was dialed back. VIX remains elevated while the put to call ratio didn‘t point to rising fear yesterday, and the dollar made no progress while long-dated yields retreated. These are all signs of caution, and do not invalidate my fundamental thesis of seeing stocks potentially spike up on CPI before the still tightening Fed reality sets in again – as described in the below quote from yesterday‘s analysis. The only fly in the ointment is that today‘s premarket didn‘t offer advance clues as to which way the wind is blowing immediately before the CPI data release:(…) I‘m expecting a sticky CPI and core CPI figure tomorrow – given the price action so far, any potentially positive initial market reaction would be sold into. True, I‘m not looking for such a low CPI figure that would facilitate lasting gains – the sideways trading witnessed currently favors the bears assuming initiative tomorrow. Unless we very decisively close above my 3,635 level with outside markets confirming (unlikely to happen) – if so, I would definitely tweet about that.The real assets premarket upswing is bucked by cryptos plunging, so the picture with respect to CPI is inconclusive here as well. I‘ll keep updating you throughout the day if any change is posture or positioning is warranted based on the market reaction with Fed tightening reassessment.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 bears couldn‘t maintain the momentum, and the buyers pulled off a fake breakout. As much as it was supported by bonds, these gave up both their intraday gains and risk-on posture in what bears hallmarks of a first refusal to go up. Not that I would be expecting any sizable upswing today, the 3,620s would provide first (easy to overcome) level of resistance. This would be tested on the initial PPI reaction – it‘s likely that stocks would try to interpret it in a bullish way before realizing that tomorrow‘s CPI is what matters more to the Fed really.Given though the 0.4% m/m PPI and the core and y/y PPI figures balancing themselves out, stocks are obliging to the downside, which makes a fake breakout later today an increasingly moot proposition. Therefore, today is likely to bring only modest initial appreciation struggle at best – one that would be countered during the regular session. Choppy day where any upswing would be of fleeting nature as long-dated Treasuries haven‘t kept promising intraday gains, making their stabilization still suspect. The short end of the curve still reflects hawkish Fed rhetoric and expectations – and isn‘t front running the BoE moves as regards the Fed in the least.I‘m expecting a sticky CPI and core CPI figure tomorrow – given the price action so far, any potentially positive initial market reaction would be sold into. True, I‘m not looking for such a low CPI figure that would facilitate lasting gains – the sideways trading witnessed currently favors the bears assuming initiative tomorrow. Unless we very decisively close above my 3,635 level with outside markets confirming (unlikely to happen) – if so, I would definitely tweet about that.Precious metals and miners‘ reversals are gently tipping the scales in the bearish direction when it comes to tomorrow. Silver and copper confirming each other on a daily basis today premarket – that‘s not a bullish sign. No matter the COMEX supplies status, silver isn‘t starting a sizable rally this week, but it‘s brewing. Remember that the white metal is a byproduct of mining for other base metals, and copper inventories aren‘t really high either.Crude oil is likely to keep turning up – the recent shallow, flag-like correction on the daily chart is close to over, and oil stocks keep their distinct bullish posture as well. Cryptos are basing for now, unwilling to sharply move up – Monday‘s muddle through prediction for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the nearest sessions, is still playing out.Let‘s bring up the key parting paragraph of yesterday‘s analysis:(…) That‘s the key to any sustainable S&P 500 rally – calm in the bond markets, and end of the parabolic rise in yields. Too many moving parts though as to what kind of Q4 rally that would translate to. In such an environment, real assets are least vulnerable, and would take to any tightening pause in the kindest manner.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 obliged to the downside as reasonably fine NFPs brought back the justified bets on the Fed hiking yet again by 75bp in Nov, and by 50bp in Dec, which is in line with the Daly and Kashkari consistent utterances. That‘s right, as I told you on Tuesday in the article Fed Turn That Wasn‘t, Evans is still a lone dovish voice no matter the tightening cracks emerging overseas. After the opening bell, the selling pressure picked up, and kept delivering us, reasoned and patient traders, deserved open shorts profits.That serves as key confirmation of the bears being firmly in the short-term driving seat, of markets not yet even thinking about positioning for Thursday‘s CPI data, which could bring about noticeable relief to both stocks and bonds – possibly in spite of core CPI, which I‘m looking for to come in really, really weak (meaning uncomfortably high) – that‘s an important distinction for future inflation path as e.g. core PCE excludes food and energy (both of which relented lately), and it would preclude the Fed‘s models from pausing the fight against inflation.Sure, the lagging NFPs indicator brought in signs of internal job market deterioration – look at unemployment rate and participation – but the Fed would keep on tightening nonetheless. And that‘s what markets realized again Friday – long-dated yields are again surging as TLT is back at Sep lows. Hardly a conducive sign for stock market rally – I told you lately that Treasuries need to at least stabilize (if not turn noticeably up) as a precondition for the anticipated Q4 S&P 500 rally – the one that isn‘t here yet. With the bond market closed today on Columbus Day, I‘m looking for less reliable trading performance interpretation when it comes to stocks, i.e. I wouldn‘t read too much into downswings and upswings intraday, and would try to view them in light of the dollar performance chiefly.Today‘s analysis has been one of those extensive ones – keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, and additional commentary on real assets in the opening section.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 path of least resistance remains down – yet another rally attempt failed last week. Still, we haven‘t seen a true capitulation, and trading in the days preceding CPI would be telling as to the Q4 rally timing and its late Oct potential.Credit MarketsI‘m not yet drawing anyone‘s attention to the possible divergence in progress (HYG at much higher levels), because TLT hasn‘t yet found the bottom. Bonds are still risk-off, pointing bearish for stocks.

S&P 500 was again rejected on the upside, closing near the bottom of my 3,770s – 3,720s range aka no-man‘s land amid weakening bonds – weakening, but not yet considerably weak. The dollar though is solidly back in the upswing mode as long-dated Treasuries are flirting with the recent lows again. And that‘s especially concerning to the extended Nasdaq.Let‘s bring up yesterday‘s thoughts:(…) I‘m looking for still reasonably good non-farm payrolls tomorrow, which would:(…) thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.What I would like to see (if the bears still have the upper hand, if the Q4 rally hasn‘t started already), is dialing back of the current risk-on sentiment in anticipation of the above paragraph outcome. If that doesn‘t happen to a meaningful degree in stocks and outside markets during today‘s session, then my hypothesis of an S&P 500 decline below the open short position‘s entry points, is toast. Given the above NFPs dynamics, I‘m willing to let the market prove me right or wrong tomorrow. The other open trades make up for that on the long side amply.(…) market reaction I anticipate tomorrow, … is bonds down, stocks down, dollar up. By the way, cryptos are also firming here, which as positive as the precious metals performance.How is that turning out as we speak?The pre-NFPs hesitation confirmed with more clues right before the data release – and the reasonably positive job creation and unemployment rate figures ushered in fireworks for the bears. What felt like a waterboarding week, is drawing to a fine close – I‘m looking for the selling pressure to pick up somewhat still, and for a close decisively below 3,720s. Bonds yields and the dollar would confirm the weakness, pressuring tech and also cyclicals. VIX would rise, but not to panic levels while cryptos and real assets with the exception of crude oil, retreat modestly.Let‘s see first bears overpowering any buy the dip right after the open.I‘ll be updating you through the day as we go – happy weekend in advance!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 jubilation continued yet another day, but not after repelling some serious downside first. The bears didn‘t meet my key objective of breaking below 3,720s – but bonds weren‘t shining either. Animal spirits were powered by the intraday retreat of the dollar giving up a third of its gains. So, stocks closed in the proximity of where they had been rejected on Tuesday – the low 3,800s – leaving the bears high and dry. And in danger as I‘m looking for still reasonably good non-farm payrolls tomorrow, which would:(…) thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.What I would like to see (if the bears still have the upper hand, if the Q4 rally hasn‘t started already), is dialing back of the current risk-on sentiment in anticipation of the above paragraph‘s outcome. If that doesn‘t happen to a telling degree in stocks and outside markets during today‘s session, then my hypothesis of an S&P 500 decline below the open short position‘s entry points, is toast. Given the above NFPs dynamics, I‘m willing to let the market prove me right or wrong tomorrow. The other open trades make up for that on the long side amply.Thus far, stocks are in no-man‘s land between 3,720s and 3,770s, and these same supports and resistances (low 3,800s till 3,820) apply. Today is shaping up to be a relatively calm day in bonds, with commodities barely appreciating – unlike gold and silver, where I‘m looking for daily gains to be slightly more significant than in the CRB Index. This would also increase probability of the market reaction I anticipate tomorrow, which is bonds down, stocks down, dollar up.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 jubilation continued yesterday, and markets didn‘t really notice Fed‘s Williams throwing cold water on giving up the fight against inflation prematurely. The excessive moves in USD retreat well below 111.50 throughout yesterday, and plunge in Treasury yields combined with very risk-on posture in junk corporate bonds, provided daily continuation of Monday‘s momentum (the bear trap having characteristics of a short squeeze), with real assets beyond oil amplifying the growing risk appetite. At the same time though, VIX didn‘t sharply retreat – 29 is not plunge target to speak of, which demonstrates to some degree a fragile nature of this two day upswing. Remember the title of yesterday‘s article (Fed Turn That Wasn‘t) and the caution in evaluation of the upswing prospects I called for back then:(…) with a lag, markets are forcing the Fed‘s hand – there has been no catalyst for yesterday‘s broad-based upswing, yet every asset class is acting as if Powell already pivoted – or paused, as it could be euphemistically called too. The Fed isn‘t yet wobbling in its determination, no shoe has dropped that would force it to reverse course. Markets are only acting as if the Fed already folded, and as I wrote yesterday, are assigning lower probability to steep hikes in Nov and Dec than was the case two weeks ago – but there hasn‘t been a crisis that would force the Fed to blink.That crisis would of course happen abroad, not in the States – there are plenty of European banking concerns as evidence in rising CDS, sovereign yields, energy crisis, slowing manufacturing, slowing consumer demand, housing, and of course strong inflation data abroad, which the strong dollar helps to offload elsewhere. The tail risks are high – no matter the markets acting as if they were over already, as if the Fed backed off as a result – as much as markets are forward looking, that isn‘t isn‘t guaranteed to happen soon.Could this be the start of the Q4 rally I called for yesterday to arrive rather in 5-7 sessions instead? Hard to say now as yields would have to follow lower still (think the 10-year breaking conclusively below 3.50%), and the dollar would have to make a lower low. We‘re in no man‘s land currently, and should the rally progress with similar momentum today as was the case yesterday, without any bearish divergencies such as bonds unable to rally (risk-on mode), real assets no longer amplifying the S&P 500 upswing, appear during today‘s regular session, then the bears are in a serious short-term trouble.For now, I‘m still leaning towards the stock market advance at least stalling, and starting to form bearish divergencies – the rally of the last 36+ hrs has been excessive, broadening, and can be called a stampede. Now, it‘s up to the herd to stop, and realize that it hadn‘t run on any good reason. All it takes is Powell & co not folding immediately – it‘s my view that just as it took the markets longer to force the Fed to raise, it‘ll take a while to force the Fed to relent. The only and real question is whether that happens still this year, or only in 2023.The premarket series of tweets shining light on the overnight happenings, describes that well. While we haven‘t seen a bearish stampede reversing the prior excessive moves, Williams not blinking would make the markets realize that inflation fighting is still on. It‘s up to ECB and not the Fed to see their bluff called first anyway. So far, we‘re seeing an orderly correction in stocks after 3,770s were broken, and commodities not outpacing the declines in non-USD currencies and Treasuries. Today‘s objective for the bears is to decisively break below 3,720s if they are serious about downside acceleration.While the real economy is slowing, the Wednesday‘s part of non-farm payrolls data (lagging indicator, remember this is a lagging indicator) isn‘t obviously going to reflect the recessionary fears, and would thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.The fate of the Q4 alleged start is being decided this week.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

S&P 500 didn‘t look back at Monday‘s lows, bonds were pushing higher while the dollar retreated to my 111.50 support before stabilizing. Also junk bonds had trouble extending gains in the latter half of yesterday‘s session while long-dated Treasuries retreated intraday to a more neutral (practically doji) close. While bonds hesitated, commodities and especially precious metals did well – the turn looks here as silver with gold are looking at which other central bank‘s bluff would be called the way Bank of England‘s was, forcing UK to do an about-face, and exchange fighting inflation with (allegedly temporary) unlimited money printing to support gilts and pound.And with a lag, markets are forcing the Fed‘s hand – there has been no catalyst for yesterday‘s broad-based upswing, yet every asset class is acting as if Powell already pivoted – or paused, as it could be euphemistically called too. The Fed isn‘t yet wobbling in its determination, no shoe has dropped that would force it to reverse course. Markets are only acting as if the Fed already folded, and as I wrote yesterday, are assigning lower probability to steep hikes in Nov and Dec than was the case two weeks ago – but there hasn‘t been a crisis that would force the Fed to blink.That crisis would of course happen abroad, not in the States – there are plenty of European banking concerns as evidence in rising CDS, sovereign yields, energy crisis, slowing manufacturing, slowing consumer demand, housing, and of course strong inflation data abroad, which the strong dollar helps to offload elsewhere. The tail risks are high – no matter the markets acting as if they were over already, as if the Fed backed off as a result – as much as markets are forward looking, that isn‘t isn‘t guaranteed to happen soon.Could this be the start of the Q4 rally I called for yesterday to arrive rather in 5-7 sessions instead? Hard to say now as yields would have to follow lower still (think the 10-year breaking conclusively below 3.50%), and the dollar would have to make a lower low. We‘re in no man‘s land currently, and should the rally progress with similar momentum today as was the case yesterday, without any bearish divergencies such as bonds unable to rally (risk-on mode), real assets no longer amplifying the S&P 500 upswing, appear during today‘s regular session, then the bears are in a serious short-term trouble.For now, I‘m still leaning towards the stock market advance at least stalling, and starting to form bearish divergencies – the rally of the last 36+ hrs has been excessive, broadening, and can be called a stampede. Now, it‘s up to the herd to stop, and realize that it hadn‘t run on any good reason. All it takes is Powell & co not folding immediately – it‘s my view that just as it took the markets longer to force the Fed to raise, it‘ll take a while to force the Fed to relent. The only and real question is whether that happens still this year, or only in 2023.Again, keeping my eyes chiefly on the dollar and long-dated bonds today – risk sentiment in junk bonds should tip the bulls‘ hands among the first signs – the tone of the session would be set within 60 min after the opening bell, but those bearish divergences might get formed only in the second half of the regular session.

S&P 500 reversed to the downside on high volume, and the open short position became profitable from the get-go. No matter the premarket jubilation driven by retreat in bond yields, the bottom is clearly not yet in, and it‘s a matter of both technicals and hawkish monetary policy guidance. The bets on the Fed to back off tightening and go at least neutral, appear very premature – the plan is still to raise by 75bp in Nov and by 50bp in Dec with 25bp more early 2023, and Evans saying in effect the central bank is moving too fast without appreciating the effects of tightening already in, is a lone voice. Now, if I were to hear noises suggesting only 50bp in Nov or 25bp in Dec, that would change the picture.For now though, the tightening is felt mostly abroad, driving the surge in the dollar and associated Treasury sales by foreigners who need to support their currencies / make commodity purchases in dollars from Europe, UK to China and Japan. The Fed shrinking its balance sheet thus puts additional strain on long-dated yields which haven‘t yet found a bottom as I‘ve argued in prior Monday‘s extensive analysis. The BoE intervention jubilation proved short-lived, and even if the dollar is in corrective mode, it didn‘t trigger a lasting rebound in either stocks or bonds.This could (and in my opinion would) change on the upcoming CPI next Thursday (13th), which would signal to the Fed that inflation is somewhat down (signs of a peak) – a nice Q4 rally in stocks and bonds can develop, but it won‘t be sustainable or lasting just like the summer rally wasn‘t. No matter the bad PCE deflator data (remember that the core figure excludes food and energy), the probability of the Fed maintaining its highly restrictive course, went actually down on a week-to-week basis – the worry clearly is that the Fed is approaching the moment when it breaks something (i.e. the tightening cure is starting to get heavier on negative effects than inflation / inflation fear itself in market‘s mind), and the good unemployment claims show that it won‘t be breaking in the States. This also helps explain the late week precious metals resiliency.The direction in stocks until the reprieve later in Oct, is though down, and the downside risks are accentuated – but what would facilitate the upcoming rally? Stabilization in yields at the long end of the curve is a precondition, and that‘s when some bullish divergencies and weakening selling pressure in stocks would be seen. The conditions for a rebound are slowly materializing (including VIX making lower highs), and it‘s up to the buyers to act on them as Oct draws to its close. That would be the good finish to the year (Santa Claus rally) before the worldwide recessionary winds stiffen next year.Remember that it takes easily a year for the rate raising effects to play out, and this tightening pace was fastest since the mid 1990s when Greenspan took Fed funds rate from 3% to 6% - and we‘re hearing Mester still say that the current one (4.5% Fed funds rate at year end is projected by the way) isn‘t yet restrictive, and I told you last week about their plans to keep it at a slightly restrictive level for a longer time in a bid to avoid tipping the economy into recession.This has obviously negative implications for commodities, which wouldn‘t thrive in an economic decline the way precious metals would. This concerns even crude oil facing modest headwinds – but not of the copper magnitude. A period of instability in the markets is upon us shortly, and it‘ll play itself out in currencies and sovereign bonds first of all, affecting the rest of the asset classes next.Today‘s analysis has been one of those extensive ones – keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is likely to keep doing better than gold, the physical market suggests still. Crucially, miners are hinting at ongoing accumulation – the heavy volume and miners to gold ratio are promising even though the metals themselves haven‘t yet reacted much.Crude OilCrude oil still has a fine opportunity to rise on the real economy not deteriorating too badly (no matter order cancellations and inventory build ups beyond WMT or NKE – there simply isn‘t evidence of crude oil demand destruction in the States). Demand from China, end of SPR drawdowns and onset of winter season remain the wildcards and bullish arguments that are balanced out against weakening real economies around the world – the hypothesis of a nice rounded bottom in WTIC being carved out, is still in play – and further supported by the Oct 05 OPEC+ meeting where 1mln barrels a day production cut could be agreed. Oil stocks though are to weather the storms stretching to 2023.CopperCopper upswing appears to be sold into, and coinciding with the upcoming instability in stocks and bonds. The consolidation is receiving bearish undertones.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t surging really on the premarket retreat in yields, volume isn‘t swinging too much higher either. Until the bears reappear, Bricoin and Ethereum would muddle through, lagging behind stocks in appreciation on a daily basis (as regards today).

S&P 500 turned on a dime, and the daily rally turned out indeed one to chase. It‘s as if the BoE stepping in had the power to bring about a similar Fed turn – it obviously doesn‘t, and one swallow doesn‘t make a spring. Still, the move ushered in celebration in the beaten down assets – from real to paper. As I wrote on Tuesday:(…) The bouts of risk-on spurred by any dollar retreats (no matter how modest) are likely though to disproportionately power real assets up after their latest beating (think a decent retracement) together with cryptos rather than stocks – and I mean chiefly cyclicals. Oil is to remain the main winner here. The key event to watch remains solid bid materializing in long-dated Treasuries – we aren‘t quite there yet. Summing up, the stock market bear isn‘t over, and I am looking for Jun lows to break, especially on more confirmation that the U.S. can‘t really avoid hard landing.Given the jubilation in bonds (long-dated Treasuries finally caught a bid), it‘s reasonable to expect that the bulls won‘t give up this easily – so far, we‘re getting the consolidation, right in the premarket, and it‘s accompanied by a decent but not stellar USD comeback. That makes for a little muddied picture of today‘s regular session, where the bulls are likely to struggle at yesterday‘s intraday highs (if they can get there today at all). Squaring the bets before tomorrow‘s PCE deflator data while commodities rather than precious metals mostly keep their Wednesday‘s gains, seems most probable action for today – yesterday‘s long SPX profits had been cashed in before the decline anyway.Let me feature an interesting question I got yesterday about dividend stocks – really interesting for those of you looking for promising, long-term vehicles of capital preservation and decent growth.Q: Of the large-cap growth names, what are your thoughts on e.g. Microsoft, APPLE, Google, Amazon, and even Verizon or AT&T long term? For us Baby Boomers, aren‘t they risky now in light of the macro climate ? Or do you think it makes sense to barbell these names with the dividend stocks such as PEP and ? For a 5-10 year horizon.A: As for the tickers mentioned, I understandably like CVX, PEP, KO, and of course XOM, SLB and PG. I don't like certain parts of JNJ business, and think telecoms are to underperform (VZ, T). I think you would do better with energy than with tech in the years ahead, and within a few short months with mining stocks too. Energy is to turn within 4 weeks latest (it did nicely already yesterday) while miners' better times would come in 2023 (I am not sounding all clear on them just yet - it's good that $1,610 in gold held).The key in your due diligence is to look for companies that have proven track record of raising dividends like clockwork over the past say at least 3 years. They also must be in industries which face bright prospects, and I mean essential resources (and agricultural stocks) including oil as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily reprieve that must get follow through – otherwise this S&P 500 rebound is suspect. Thus far, the bulls have the benefit of short-term doubt, but the resistance level mentioned in the opening part, applies.Credit MarketsBonds rose, finally catching a solid bid – the TLT turn is especially significant, and must be maintained as part of the bottoming process in stocks. Just as in the preceding weeks and months, first cracks in the dam are likely to be seen here first (alongside the dollar of course).

S&P 500 yet again kept declining through the day, and Treasuries offered a bleak sight till shortly before the close when long-dated ones turned finally higher – and both tech and value followed suit. Nothing spectacular, Jun lows in S&P 500 were tested (and in the Russell 2000 nearly touched) – 50 points late day reversal doesn‘t signify anything as we haven‘t reached THE low yet in my view. It‘s not about plain stock market seasonality where the very beginning of October is rife with heavy selling – it‘s that markets Friday sold off as no hint of a rescue from Powell came about during his brief speech. The Pavlovian dogs were disappointed.There is further evidence that the current downleg is rather orderly, and not reaching any panicky levels whatsoever. Apart from VIX keeping even above 30 only, it‘s the relationship between stock prices and the CNN Fear and Greed Index (chart courtesy of MacroMicro):See for yourself how bullish the sentiment was while we were running to the 200-day moving average, and how complacent it is now as relates to the S&P 500 prices – remember this while hearing elsewhere about any triple digit uplegs. The bear hasn‘t run its course, and we‘ve taken the most bearish route shown in my mid Aug refutal of bull market thesis. It‘s my view that the nearest weeks won‘t be too easy, and that I don‘t see too much respite in stocks. The (comparatively shallow) rips are to be sold.As I wrote in Friday‘s concise yet important article on bonds, the question of a peak in long-dated Treasury yields is the key one. As the Fed has vacated the market and foreign buyers aren‘t exactly aggressively buying (the trade balances have reversed for both Europe and Japan, while Russia and China have their sights elsewhere), it‘s up to instituitional and retail investors to snap up any bargains. These would be of course driven by real economy evidently entering recession – we aren‘t quite there yet, but there is progress as spelled out a week ago. The idea is that deteriorating real economy prospects would not only get reflected in decrease in long-dated yields, but over time also cut short Fed tightening through providing it with cover to get at least neutral if not somewhat accommodative again, no matter the stage of its fight against the sticky inflation (which the central bank would lose after making meaningful progress throughout this winter). This ties in well with the recent question I got:Q: Monica, since the 10 yr treasury has been going up, so has Fund RRPIX (Rising Rates fund). Do you see that continuing? Thanks!A: Indeed the long end of the curve (20-30y) is the key here. FOMC - yields retreated, Thursday TLT went a lot down, and was balancing on the edge on Friday. At least it recovered, for if no fresh buyers emerge to replace the Fed and foreigners, we're in for trouble. It‘s my view that over the nearest two months, we would see the long end of the curve catching a solid bid. This is tying in well with the recent peak in goods inflation, which will be shortly followed with a peak in services inflation, and that will have consequences for both rents (owners‘ equivalent rent is a third of CPI, and its peak would help the Fed get its foot off the tightening pedal) and wage inflation (small and medium enterprises aren‘t on a hiring spree exactly). This spells a peak in inflation, and facilates a turn in Fed policy several quarters down the road. For now, I‘m looking for 75bp hike in Nov and maybe 50bp in Dec, which could very well be the end of the rate raising cycle. That would be a truly restrictive level, and they want to keep it there for quite some time to avoid the 1970s mistake. The Fed probably believes that keeping rates slighly restrictive for long enough to beat inflation, will avoid tipping the economy into a recession – it remains to be seen whether either of these two propositions work out, becase the Fed would be in a pickle if during 2024 inflation would still run above say 4%..I‘m discussing the market impact of the above within the individual chart sections – rich annotations and comments – in place of upcoming shorter analyses. Where would I hide in the long-term – thinking this decade? This timeless mid April article sheds light on assets and sectors worth your attention.Keep enjoying the always lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are to sniff out the upcoming Fed turn, but their 2022 performance would continue being bleak. It‘s often the case that at the beginning of economic woes striking, both gold and silver are taking in on the chin alongise much else – just like we have seen in real assets on Friday. That‘s the result of the strong dollar upswing, and hawkish Fed (both perception and reality). Major buying opportunity approaches, but it isn‘t here quite yet – then, gold has good support at $1,610.Crude OilCrude oil fell through the $80s floor, and has quite some crawling back to do. The physical market is to provide support, which would be met by real economy performance and demand destruction fears underpinning the dollar. Black gold still needs to consolidate before launching higher in some 5 weeks max (yes, probably shortly before midterms) – or earlier if China‘s demand destruction during lockdowns returns.CopperCopper is likewise reflecting the anticipated real economy impact, but would benefit from the coming Fed‘s focus shifting to real ecconomy support (remember how fast Powell turned in early Jan 2019?), and inflation not declining much below its persistently high 5-6% YoY CPI level of Dec 2022 (still my target). It would be real assets, the commodities and precious metals superbulls, that would benefit from the Fed turning at the very least neutral (which would support selective beaten down stock sectors as well).Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to rebound today, meaning we would see retracements of Friday‘s downswings in other assets as well, accompanied by the dollar‘s intraday retreat off its daily highs, which is already playing out.

S&P 500 continued its downswing without much of a respite even though bonds favored stocks to reach higher than they did one hour before the closing bell. Interestingly, VIX has barely moved in spite of the quite meaningful downside continuation – let alone the Wednesday‘s reversal that caught so many off guard. Thankfully not you!Today, we‘re already below my direction setting level described in these two tweets. USD is up, and much of the forex antidollar plays in disarray (beyond the usual suspect, Japan) – this isn‘t yet a dollar top. That‘s a consequence of Treasuries price action – no top in yields, not enough fresh buyers to make up for the vacated Fed place, is putting and will put even more serious pressure on asset prices. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today short) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is still a really bearish S&P 500 chart – not even volume is increasing on the downswing. Both cyclicals and tech are suffering, but the market generals (AAPL and beyond) have still quite some catching to do. After Wednesday, the selling is quite orderly still, no panic yet, but I am unwilling to chase prices here, this Friday – we‘re likely to see a temporary stabilization above 3,730, and quite possibly another buying spree approximately of yesterday‘s potency.Credit MarketsAs stated yesterday, bonds are risk-off, and reflecting foremost the upcoming real economy realities, the inevitable consequence of aggressive tightening while the effects of tightening already in, haven‘t yet played out. It‘s only when TLT turns that we can get some meaningful respite in stocks beyond a few days‘ counter trend upswings here and there – in the week(s) to come.

S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering. In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss anything intraday.Thanks again for the overwhelming appreciation and your joy over how well my work served you (not only) yesterday!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver did indeed well in the wake of FOMC, and gold looks fairly well bid here. The bears are definitely looking tired, and the direction for the next couple of days, is modestly up in the sector.Crude OilCrude oil is looking very fine, carving out the protracted bottom before launching higher. The downtrend is simply long in the tooth.CopperCopper is also fairly well bid, and odds are it would break higher from the range mentioned in the caption.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are leading the risk asset retracement that‘s ahead, and the volume gives both Bitcoin and Ethereum a good chance of lasting through the weekend as a minimum.

S&P 500 duly reversed as I called for it intraday to do. Not that the message from bonds or the dollar would be more optimistic really – for the bulls I mean. Whatever ground the buyers recovered yesterday, was defensive in nature as yields continue rising even on the long end of the curve. No top in yields – that‘s not a bullish message for stocks. As I have written an extensive analysis on Monday, and yesterday presented the key idea that may drive an upswing attempt that would be sold into, I‘ll concentrate on live Twitter updates around the FOMC such as this feel of the market pulse (with intraday updates on my site should trading decisions need to be updated, of course).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver will shake off any FOMC blues easier than gold, and the direction miners take, would determine the next move in the whole sector. Miners rising could be equated to doubts about the Fed vs. soft landing as much as rising yields.Crude OilCrude oil will be least affected today (this could turn into an understatement), and not only because of the news from Eastern Europe. Looking for the upswing to slowly gather pace over the coming weeks.CopperCopper is still going sideways, and I don‘t see a deep flush as likely this week at all.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos will likely join in the temporary jubilation that‘s ahead, but will decline once the true hawkish Fed message gets acknowledged for what it is.

S&P 500 rebound lacked volume even if internal strength didn‘t lag too badly. VIX isn‘t really declining as in trending lower, and given the big picture action in bonds (steeply inverted yield curve, with the short end in decline on account of more Fed tighteing expectations), it‘s no wonder. Any misguided FOMC rip is likely to be sold into. What can facilitate a misguided S&P 500 upswing then? Some modest relief over the pre-CPI unheard of possibility of 100bp before focus turns to further rate raising in Nov and Dec.Let‘s quote from yesterday‘s extensive analysis (and then talk individual markets within their chart context):(…) Sep FOMC is approaching, and as a result of the inflation disappointment (I told you it was to turn out sticky, it‘s service driven – and the reading refutes even the peak inflation hypothesis), bond markets started to assign some (low, but still – that‘s a major turn from last couple of weeks‘ position) probability to even a full 1% hike coming this week. The 75bp one would bring Fed funds rate to 3%, and is a very sharp reversal of the low corona era rates (too low for too long), and the risk of policy mistake is understandably very high. If anyone in the mainstream still believed in the soft landing fairy tale, it‘s probably universally clear now that the pace of the Fed tightening (and balance sheet shrinking) is to take a significant toll on the economy in the months to come. Finally, the effects of the tightening already in, haven‘t yet played out in full – and both Nov and Dec are likely to bring in more tightening.Housing is the best leading indicator, and so many metrics beyond the unsold inventory are pointing to trouble ahead spilling over into other sectors. The second key development of last week were disappointing earnings, namely FedEx missing so badly and guiding lower on claims of worldwide recession – hard to blame them if they look at Europe and hear the permanent deindustrialization warnings, or account for China‘s slowdown. Manufacturing is also about to suffer, and it‘s been my call for months that manufacturing recession is inevitable – the ISM data would confirm. Rising initial claims point to the labor market being the final one in line to deteriorate – we aren‘t quite there yet given the not too bad non-farm payrolls.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty of intraday nature gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is likely to keep doing better than gold, the physical market suggests. $1,680 support keeps holding for now, and miners finally kicked in yesterday – at least on a daily basis. Gold wouldn‘t like the Sep FOMC really much – yields are exerting pressure while inflation expectations aren‘t on fire.Crude OilCrude oil is holding firm, and will keep on doing so still – definitely among the sturdiest commodities as it carves out a nice rounded bottom – both better seasonality and SPR drawdowns ending approach.CopperCopper is still going sideways, and the range is to remain tight in reflection of not too badly deteriorating economy in the short term, and of the physical constraints balancing out against weaker prospects in economic activity as the housing data just revealed.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos confirm the stiffening headwinds – that‘s before FOMC. Thereafter, reality will catch up, but any reprieve in the dollar would help with a brief respite taking Bitcoin to $20K after the targets mentioned in the caption are achieved. I don‘t see a longer sustained upswing as likely – the crypto winter isn‘t over.

S&P 500 decline on the disappointing CPI – especially core inflation points at more to come, and the better PPI figures don‘t make up for that. So, stocks reversed sharply lower - but not before our profitable long position was closed - and the tone for the rest of the week was set. Friday though was marked by buying the dip in the second half of the session, and the risk-on turn in bonds facilitated that. I wouldn‘t though be getting too carried away with the reversal as the bears haven‘t said the last word – I consider the rebound on high volume as a temporary reprieve in selling only.Sep FOMC is approaching, and as a result of the inflation disappointment (I told you it was to turn out sticky, it‘s service driven – and the reading refutes even the peak inflation hypothesis), bond markets started to assign some (low, but still – that‘s a major turn from last couple of weeks‘ position) probability to even a full 1% hike coming this week. The 75bp one would bring Fed funds rate to 3%, and is a very sharp reversal of the low corona era rates (too low for too long), and the risk of policy mistake is understandably very high. If anyone in the mainstream still believed in the soft landing fairy tale, it‘s probably universally clear now that the pace of the Fed tightening (and balance sheet shrinking) is to take a significant toll on the economy in the months to come. Finally, the effects of the tightening already in, haven‘t yet played out in full – and both Nov and Dec are likely to bring in more tightening.Housing is the best leading indicator, and so many metrics beyond the unsold inventory are pointing to trouble ahead spilling over into other sectors. The second key development of last week were disappointing earnings, namely FedEx missing so badly and guiding lower on claims of worldwide recession – hard to blame them if they look at Europe and hear the permanent deindustrialization warnings, or account for China‘s slowdown. Manufacturing is also about to suffer, and it‘s been my call for months that manufacturing recession is inevitable – the ISM data would confirm. Rising initial claims point to the labor market being the final one in line to deteriorate – we aren‘t quite there yet given the not too bad non-farm payrolls.I want to thank you for your patience during my almost weeklong absence, counting the pre-CPI quick preps over Twitter. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock – and will feature today a longer than usual section dedicated to the many markets on my watch. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t turning around for good, and energy is to remain arguably the best performing sector. Some consolidation is ahead, but any pre-FOMC rips are to be sold as I think the Fed‘s statements would throw cold water on any notion of backing off tightening (yes, 75bp hike still). Inflation data certainly don‘t allow for that, and bonds are looking for quite some more tightening ahead, underpinning the dollar. Strong dollar would help the more domestic oriented S&P 500 companies (that‘s roughly two thirds) but multinationals would suffer – we‘re still in a stage of P/E ratio drifting lower.Credit MarketsRisk sentiment got its clock cleaned last week, and HYG is pointing to a temporary reprieve only. The yield curve is still deeply inverted, short end of the curve getting hammered, but the long end is meeting some new buyers now that international trade flows recycling has been reversed (Japan, Europe are in trade defictis) while China isn‘t too much snapping up fresh Treasury issuance and the Fed is not rolling over the debt it owns. The TLT is the most important one to watch here – it‘s about whether the 30-year Treasury currently at 3.51% slides further or not.

S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondigly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields didn‘t even send the dollar much upwards. Together with the sea of red in commodities and precious metals, this smacks of deleveraging, still of the relatively orderly flavor if you look at the well behaved VIX at 26 only. The steep post Jackson Hole downswing will pause, but there isn‘t a sign that would happen precisely today yet. Looking at the daily chart of CRB Index, crude oil, gold and silver with the miners, odds are that we would see a repeat of yesterday‘s action today as well – to a good degree. Not much has really change since my yesterday‘s review of real assets and cryptos, and especially the crude oil setback (reinforced by the Iran deal speculation Europe is pinning its eyes on) is generally worrying. The Fed keeps hammering the same message, and short end of the curve keeps duly rising. Tombstone reminder for those overstaying in the S&P 500 rally to the 200-day moving average, would be „don‘t fight the Fed – the central bank doesn‘t have your bank now, and would act on the out of control inflation“. I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Still, the next days would feature generally shorter analyses per the legal update on my homepage. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears still have the undeniable strategic initiative, and the pace of the downswing is really all that‘s being questioned. Earnings are still to deteriorate, and P/E to go down – inflation isn‘t declining fast enough, so equities react appropriately. CFA material 101. Read next: FX: GBP/USD May Catch Us By Surprise Soon! Tomorrow's US NFP May Let Boost USD (US Dollar) Or Arouse Concerns Over Fed's Strategy| FXMAG.COM Credit Markets HYG rested a little only on intraday basis, and objectively speaking it‘s downswing didn‘t trigger a genuine bloodbath in stocks. This can change but the steady dollar kind of doesn‘t hint at that right next. The S&P 500 bears should take it easy, because the coming days would be and feel like a consolidation compared to what we have been just through.

S&P 500 decline was driven by better than expected JOLTS and consumer confidence data, fuelling speculation that the Fed can now „afford“ to be more restrictive than would otherwise be the case. Not that the Fed would be on this flight plan – the focus is obviously on getting inflation under control. Giving it more than a really good try. Today‘s action though points at a slower day ahead in stocks, and these are the key levels to watch in the continuing bear market downleg driven by misplaced macro bets. No, the Fed doesn‘t have the bulls‘ back this time.I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are taking it on the chin incrreasingly more – I‘m looking for further universal downside.Crude OilCrude oil bearish engulfing candle on sharply rising volume hints at more trouble to come short term, but this doesn‘t look as a truly bearish chart to me. Worth the wait on the long side.CopperCopper chart doesn‘t look pretty for the bulls, and should the low $3.40s give, the slide would quicken, no matter the bullish low stockpile fundamentals.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are standing out, and probably not in a good way. The question remains just when this upswing would be sold.

S&P 500 staged a modest recovery, attempting to close the opening gap, which it did before retreating. Bonds mirrored the late day hesitation as well, and VIX didn‘t stage a true break lower. Simply put, yesterday does qualify as a start of a dead cat bounce – on that can be still resurrected. Overall though, the bulls would struggle first at 4,065 and then in the 4,130s should they even get this far, which I doubt today. Bears remain in control, and the environment is risk-off, no matter the little rips that are to be sold into.As stated yesterday:(…) Powell indeed delivered credibly, and the markets were surprised even though his speech merely confirmed the known positions – albeit using strong and direct language such as bringing some pain to households and businesses, or mentioning the necessity of acting with resolve regardess of the employment costs of bringing down inflation, the goal which Powell even mentioned as being unconditional. This should put to rest all the fantasies about pivot and soft landing – the U.S. economy remains on course to enter recession late 2022 / early 2023 while sticky inflation and restrictive Fed are here to stay. Yes, I stand by the 5-6% year end CPI call of long ago.How about the Fed funds rate? It‘s about to rise to 4% and possibly beyond – it doesn‘t matter that Treasuries had been doing the tightening for the Fed. The inflation rate and danger of inflation expectations becoming entrenched, requires hiking the Fed funds rate well, well beyond its natural rate, and keeping it there. So much had been broadly acknowledged by many Fed speakers – and Mester even sees no rate cuts next year. That‘s quite a resolve – and it paints a clear road for the markets ahead. As a new downleg in the S&P 500 bear market has been rubberstamped by Powell, Treasury yields will reflect the worsening economic outlook (LEIs are essentially falling for 5 months in a row) in declining yields before these move higher again. Yes, it‘s a paradigm shift – secular bear market in bonds is upon us in this decade, accomplanied by persistent inflation in necessities of life, and a commodities superbull run.I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still to remain under pressure – they are grappling with the tightening headwinds to a good degree. The outlook is still bearish as gold faces the double whammy of rising yields on the short end, and dollar upswing that‘s set to continue.Crude OilCrude oil is turning up, and dips remain to be bought – the area talked about in the caption is likely to hold. The outlook is brightening, the Saudi put helped turn black gold around mightily.CopperCopper seems to want to go to the downside after all – all that‘s missing is a modest rise in volume and steady intraday decline to confirm. $3.50 will turn out an tougher area to crack.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are pointing to an upswing, but rather hesitantly – challenge is arriving soon.

S&P 500 cratered as Powell indeed delivered credibly, and the markets were surprised even though his speech merely confirmed the known positions – albeit using strong and direct language such as bringing some pain to households and businesses, or mentioning the necessity of acting with resolve regardess of the employment costs of bringing down inflation, the goal which Powell even mentioned as being unconditional. This should put to rest all the fantasies about pivot and soft landing – the U.S. economy remains on course to enter recession late 2022 / early 2023 while sticky inflation and restrictive Fed are here to stay. Yes, I stand by the 5-6% year end CPI call of long ago.How about the Fed funds rate? It‘s about to rise to 4% and possibly beyond – it doesn‘t matter that Treasuries had been doing the tightening for the Fed. The inflation rate and danger of inflation expectations becoming entrenched, requires hiking the Fed funds rate well, well beyond its natural rate, and keeping it there. So much had been broadly acknowledged by many Fed speakers – and Mester even sees no rate cuts next year. That‘s quite a resolve – and it paints a clear road for the markets ahead. As a new downleg in the S&P 500 bear market has been rubberstamped by Powell, Treasury yields will reflect the worsening economic outlook (LEIs are essentially falling for 5 months in a row) in declining yields before these move higher again. Yes, it‘s a paradigm shift – secular bear market in bonds is upon us in this decade, accomplanied by persistent inflation in necessities of life, and a commodities superbull run.I hope you capitalized on the rich coverage throughout Friday – both in the analysis and on my very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox.One more thought on valuations, the P/E ratio and price targets – as through the quarters ahead the earnings would go down, and the slowing economy would be reflected in declining (yet persistently sticky) inflation levels, look for P/E to come down through both the E and through how much the buyers would be willing to pay for future cash flows. Inflation falling would not prop up the valuations nearly sufficiently enough, and my 3,950 target, is just that – a surefire one to be reached, with solid potential for further gains on the short side beyond those already in. Macroeconomics, momentum, intermarket analysis – I‘m keeping a close eye as always, for this won‘t be a one-way slide...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is poised to continue the fresh downleg, but reaching the lows won‘t be a one-way journey. Friday was a starting point in the recognition of more pain to come for buy the dippers – market breadth has decidedly turned, and VIX confirms.Credit MarketsHYG is clearly pointing to waning risk sentiment, and it would get worse. Corporate bonds are on the defensive while decline in Treasury yields would add to the stock market woes, not saving Nasdaq.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto appears to want to rally, but I‘m not buying into it – rips are still to be sold.

S&P 500 confirmed the daily outlook yesterday, and did really well. The signs before the close also favored bullish entry into today. VIX kept declining, UVXY confirming – no surprise that the bears were weak intraday, and likely would first have to deal with a spiking stock market before we see a repeat of the latest Fed minutes release (daily stall followed by reversal). CBOE put/call ratiois not too much out of balance, favoring a nice move today. USD is uncovincing given the delicate balancing the Fed has to do while still appearing (and crucially acting) resolute. Tough job to regain inflation fighting credentials when the „transitory‘ horse has left the barn many quarters ago. Given the continued weakness of the sellers going into the Powell speech, the nimble intraday traders among you may be tempted to join the buyers temporarily, eyeing the exit door should Powell truly surprise and deliver credibly.As written yesterday:(…) The risk-on move won‘t be shattered by the upcoming (Sep start is almost here) of the $95bn balance sheet shrinking operations. I think the markets would be willing to buy into the dovish interpretation as readily as the July‘s Powell Fed funds rate being near the neutral rate remark, and this jubilation can possibly stretch through Monday or until VIX hits the 21.50 – 21 area. While Treasury yields are rising, the stall speed of USD hints also at a dovish reaction before the big picture takes over.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is positioned to extend gains, the pullback turned out to be a healthy one only as another attempt at the 200-d moving average is possible. See the modest rise in volume. 4,250 can be easily beaten today.Credit MarketsHYG gathered speed before the close, setting the tone for a bullish showing today – openly doubting the likely hawkish message ahead – it‘s about the ability to execute. That goes for long-dated Treasuries to a good degree too even if the Sep tightening expectations continue to favor 75bp hike.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto is the only fly in the daily bullish ointment. The chart is still ugly (bearish).

S&P 500 didn‘t break below the 4,110s and the entry to yesterday‘s session made me think 4,160s would hold. They did, but today, they‘re likely to be overcome as the markets want to anticipate a dovish Fed. While no pivot would be announced or hinted at, the delicate balancing between signs of a cooling economy (housing, manufacturing) and underlining data dependency in the monetary tightening path to reflect incoming inflation data. And as CPI inflation has peaked, this introduces wiggle room that the markets seem quite willing to take advantage of in the short term.The risk-on move won‘t be shattered by the upcoming (Sep start is almost here) of the $95bn balance sheet shrinking operations. I think the markets would be willing to buy into the dovish interpretation as readily as the July‘s Powell Fed funds rate being near the neutral rate remark, and this jubilation can possibly stretch through Monday or until VIX hits the 21.50 – 21 area. While Treasury yields are rising, the stall speed of USD hints also at a dovish reaction before the big picture takes over. In addition, better than expected GDP data would invite speculation that the Fed would be more hawkish than should the economy be teetering on the edge to a greater degree.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are probing to go up, and broader markets seem to agree with a modest upswing right into the Powell speech. VIX above 23.50 isn‘t likely today, giving slight advantage to the bulls who would try hard to ignite fireworks on any dovish remark they can later grasp at.Credit MarketsHYG showed again daily resilience, and stocks were indeed listening as I cautioned you in the run up to yesterday‘s session, in this analysis. The low volume can though easily usher in decline continuation should the HYG bear flag formation get completed.

S&P 500 didn‘t swing even temporarily higher yesterday, refusing to act on relatively bullish signs from bonds. No turnaround, Nasdaq was also flat – and the volume declined in both. Fresh sellers wanted, nowhere to be found. Well, commodities had a good day, driven by crude oil‘s sharp reversal on Muhammad bin Salman‘s words about potentially reducting output, which the paper markets promptly got. Acricultural stocks also started doing better – ADM, BG, DBA, and the like including CORN. Yet, copper‘s sharp upswing was rejected at $3.73, as it the bulls were unwilling to run too far, too fast. Cryptos not following though entirely on the bullish cues – Ethereum short profits taken off the table – means that we‘re in for a relatively muted upswing (attempt) in stocks. Until the Jackson Hole uncertainty is removed, that is. Given that I look for VIX to remain in the 22.50 – 24 range today, it means a relatively narrow range in the S&P 500 ahead.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Crude OilCrude oil is on a tear, and I look for it to be well bid. Given the run‘s confirmation by oil stocks, that says a lot about stock market prospects (bearish as oil is the shadow Fed funds rate).CopperCopper is starting to hesitate, and unless $3.74 is broken, has a lot of potential to correct recent strength. Other base metals appear to agree.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are still hesitating, and I am not looking for surprising moves either way today.

S&P 500 cratered, bonds confirmed, and market breadth took a dive. The advance-decline line is not really in a good shape, and the respite that‘s possibly shaping up for today (alternatively tomorrow) would offer an interesting point to add to shorts once it exhausts itself. Where to look for signs of weakness, which sectors then? It would be again broad-based, with more attention turning to real estate, financials, and not leaving healthcare or biotech unscathed. Semicondutors also aren‘t foretelling a great outcome for tech, but the behemoths with TSLA are likely to help in the days ahead. Yesterday‘s VIX certainly calmed down, and appears to need a while to recharge batteries. And little wonder if you look at macroeconomics – the two charts below show that while we aren‘t yet feeling the effects of all the tightening in (let alone the aggressive moves still to come), the effects upon liquidity (FINRA margin debt serves as a nice proxy) have been already felt for quite a few months – and are getting worse. Little wonder that I assign practically zero odds of this S&P 500 rally to morph into a bull market even though it did beat the 50% retracement from the Jun lows. Less fuel available to power the buying. Charts courtesy of St. Louis Fed and Ycharts. Today‘s key data points are manufacturing and services PMIs, and I‘m looking at manufacturing to be the likelier candidate to disappoint than services. The greater the undershoot, the more fresh (misguided but still) bets on the Fed pivot approaching, which should translate into a risk-on turn today. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals indeed find no rest, confirming the bearish prognosis. Unless bonds turn again, the metals would have a hard time – and one daily pause in the miners doesn‘t solve that. Barring a hawkish surprise outdoing Fed plans, gold would not panic much more beyond moving in sympathy with nominal yields – the $1,750s area is critical, breaking which can quicken the decline. Crude Oil Crude oil refused lower prices, and it looks to me there won‘t be too many visits to the lower border of this declining wedge like structure. Price consolidation right above it is most likely now – good idea to have taken meaningful short profits off the table yesterday. Copper Copper chart is still bullish, and the selling attempts are very shallow. Moreover, they‘re bound to disappear once risk-on sets in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are ready for a reprieve, and the caption says it all. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this endeavor possible! Thank you, Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading SignalsOil Trading SignalsCopper Trading SignalsBitcoin Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 duly gave up on the weak Thursday‘s rebound, and bonds cratered as Treasuries aren‘t yielding on the Fed tightening expectations. There is almost 70% probability about 75bp hike coming next in September. The Fed would likely pause then, and I‘m looking for 25bp in November, with tightening continuing on the balance sheet shrinking front. Late in the week, Jakcson Hole would set the tone, but given the array of Fed speakers late in the prior week, we can look forward for a serious economic slowdown, which would be by definition necessary to bring down inflation fast from these lofty levels.And we‘re seeing more than early signs of that in the (very much slowing) real estate market, and (sharply rising) utilities. I take that as a scream that interest rates are getting too high for the weakening real economy, and it would show up fast not just in the 10-year yield. Last week‘s data from the UK and Germany reveal that U.S. earnings won‘t escape unscathed – it‘s a matter of time before not only E, but also P/E comes down more meaningfully. Meanwhile, the yield curve inversion signal (chart courtesy of St. Louis Fed) keeps its cool...To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 downswing quickened, and while it‘s still relatively orderly, the rising volume is favoring the bears this week as much as the deteriorating market breadth or AAPL with TSLA ripe for a serious pullback. Credit MarketsFine picture in bonds if you are a bear – even more so than it was after Thursday‘s closing bell. HYG is likely to correct some more, especially if the hawkish Fed messages get some more attention – it‘s clear the Fed is taking inflation more seriously now.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto weekend is over, and ti‘s back to the downward pointing trend. Let the open profits grow!

Following yesterday‘s weak rally and bonds showing, S&P 500 bears have the upper hand (timely announcement). Then, the crypto plunge is adding to downswing‘s credibility – about to spill over into tech. Note it didn‘t and doesn‘t take much of a dollar upswing – continuing the rise is enough. Yesterday‘s positive economic data are to be overshadowed by the Fed pronouncements sinking in. Yes, Daly, Kashkari spoke, even mentioning recession uncertainty… And it‘s clear we‘re likely to face quite some tightening ahead, more so than the markets are discounting – and any swift moves in inflation, are faciliated by economic contraction. The bull trap has been set.Next week won‘t be much better – I‘m looking for grim German PMIs Tuesday, challenged GDP readings on Thursday, and especially the hawkish Jackson Hole. It should be becoming increasingly clear that the risk-on rally is to meet serious reality check, and that lower stock (and other) market data are ahead. The sentiment of my Wednesday‘s recap of deteriorating economy, is to set the tone – and thankfully won‘t be as bad as the German persistently high PPI. Strong dollar to the rescue, a helpful tool in alleviating domestic inflation pressure in the States (yes, U.S. inflation peaked as I was advising you of in advance).To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears have the initiative, and Nasdaq is likely to confirm that. Such a setup is where large downswings can be born – not guaranteed today, but quite possible.Credit MarketsFine picture in bonds for the bears – this weak daily pause is likely to give way to lower values. Tightening is putting pressure on inflation trades.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break is finally here, presaging more trouble ahead still – putting to rest notions of Ethereum decoupling, at least relatively decoupling. Let the open profits grow!

S&P 500 bears missed yesterday‘s opportunity to force a decisive close lower – several key sectors led the intraday recovery even though bonds weren‘t on board. The Fed minutes‘ initial dovish interpretation duly gave way to the still accented hawkish decisions ahead – it‘s still reasonable to expect 75bp hike in Sep with perhaps 25bp in Nov while diving increasingly more into balance sheet shrinking. The focus is now shifting to the real economy performance, and it almost seems that the reverse of bad is the new good, is kicking in in stocks. At the same time, slightly better unemployment claims are helping put a floor below commodities today.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals couldn‘t do any better even if inflation expectations have been resilient over the latest two months. Chopping along while the bearish headwinds prevail, is the most likely outcome for the weeks ahead.Crude OilCrude oil is ready to turn up next, but I wonder how long that would last, and whether any technically important levels would be conquered. For now, the focus on drawdown in inventories and Fed not yet making purely hawkish noises, can prevail.CopperCopper may be carving out a short-term bottom, but it‘s early to tell. The intraday pause in the dollar and those marginally higher stocks and cryptos, look suspect today.Bitcoin and EthereumNothing new in cryptoland really – the bears going to turn up the heat. Underperforming on the upswings, outperforming on the downswings.

S&P 500 was swiftly rejected at 200-day moving average – like clockwork, with bonds presaging further weakness. Not yet a down day, but the sea of red extended to real assets as particularly oil had to do some recognition of slowing economy. The fundamentals are being taken more seriously by the market, and the allure of 200-day moving average would prove fake and temporary one.Let‘s bring up Monday‘s thoughts:(…) this run in stocks isn‘t yet done, and still has the potential to come nearer to the 200-day moving average, currently at 4,328.The moving average itself is though sloping downwards, which puts extra pressure on this run. Neither Nasdaq has conquerred its own 200-day moving average, so far just value stocks and Russell 2000 did. What are though the prospects for the broad rally to continue? All right, we closed above the 50% retracement from the Jun bottom, but was this the final bottom or is there more to the bear market still, enough to force a 10-15% decline from here? Was there any kind of catalyst to lift stocks up back then in Jun?Are earnings going to increase from here still? Who is going to be willing to pay higher earnings per share when the real economy is on the verge of recession, yield curve in deep inversion, corporations laying off or implementing hiring freezes? Are valuations going to increase when liquidity not only in the U.S. but around the world is still falling? After the Fed says they want to take Fed funds rate to 4% practically speaking, eurozone is tightening, U.K. is tightening, heck even Argentina has raised rates to 69.5%. Just Japan is running easy money policy, resulting in the yen taking it on the chin – and the only other key country lowering rates, is Russia. When it comes to energy security and resilience, the West remains vulnerable to another exogenous shock, and I‘m not even raising China‘s latest response (round one) catching the headlines. Expansive fiscal policy won‘t carry the weight really.There is plenty that can go wrong about the stock market bull run, and the only question is whether the bears would be able to drive S&P 500 below 4,000, and how deep below that. This is based on more than the awaiting recognition of Fed pivot being a misguided bet. Forgetting about tail risk for a moment, I think the most probable outcome is still a dip below 3,950, precisely because of waning liquidity (the Fed is only setting off on its $95bn monthly balance sheet shrinking), squeezed profit margins, lower earning for at least three quarters ahead, manufacturing recession approaching (ISM dipping below 50), and lower P/E ratios as money moves into commodities and precious metals over the months ahead.The Fed is focused on tackling the runaway inflation horse, which would have severe consequences for the job market. Unemployment claims – which are the most leading indicator thereof (non-farm payrolls rather lag) have been quite consistently moving higher recently. The macro landscape isn‘t brightening – the degree of the upcoming recession is what remains to be seen, as for all the headwinds mentioned, I don‘t think the Fed would either manage to engineer a soft landing, or have any immediate plans to step away from tightening any time soon. Similarly, inflation hasn‘t been defeated, isn‘t going below 5% YoY, and would prove sticky, preventing the Fed to go at least neutral or start cutting rates early 2023 – that‘s quite a few bullish macro hopes having low odds of materializing.That‘s why I am looking for a serious reality check to the S&P 500 run.Updating it with yesterday‘s data releases being correctly interpreted by the markets:(…) bonds aren‘t turning risk-off, but HYG is getting into an extended (vulnerable) position. So far, markets have largely ignored three latest data pieces in – Empire State manufacturing index plunging (both in orders ahead and shipments), positive quarterly results by WMT and HD, and sharp deterioration in actual housing starts (permits are fine, but they‘ll catch up – it‘s the action that counts, and that‘s reflected in the not too encouraging prospects of the real market market). Willingness to sell and fast, is there. Deterioration ahead - and the pace could turn quckening on any good uptick in offers to sell stocks.Bonds turned clearly risk-off yesterday, and the dollar rose. Retail sales are unlikely to fuel the conquest of the 200-day moving average, but the core ones should end up better. Still, there‘s quite some pain on the consumer level in the months ahead as the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy, Fed pivot isn‘t really coming soon, and unemployment claims are to continue their upward trajectory. Just like manufacturing data, this is a leading one.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are to remain under pressure, and I wouldn‘t fully trust the miners here. Just not yet.Crude OilCrude oil upswing was duly rejected, but black gold looks in need of more consolidation before continuing the decline. $83 is the next target once fresh sellers step in.CopperCopper is unconvincing in its attempt to cling on by the fingernails. The volume didn‘t impress me either.Bitcoin and EthereumNothing new in cryptoland really – the bears going to turn up the heat.

S&P 500 rejected shallow downside, and easily continued pushing higher – bonds aren‘t turning risk-off, but HYG is getting into an extended (vulnerable) position. So far, markets have largely ignored three latest data pieces in – Empire State manufacturing index plunging (both in orders ahead and shipments), positive quarterly results by WMT and HD, and sharp deterioration in actual housing starts (permits are fine, but they‘ll catch up – it‘s the action that counts, and that‘s reflected in the not too encouraging prospects of the real market market). Willingness to sell and fast, is there. Deterioration ahead - and the pace could turn quckening on any good uptick in offers to sell stocks.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 hasn‘t yet reached the 200-day moving average, let alone attempted to overshoot it. The prospects of successfully doing so, are slim, and the declining volume means that the sellers can move fast (should they finally decide to step in en masse).Credit MarketsHYG is hanging in there, refusing to decline at the moment, but the low volume is a watchout – for the bulls. This can all turn risk-off pretty fast, but likely won‘t today – with full force, that is...

S&P 500 more than erased Thursday‘s decline – buy the dip mentality won, and the advance was that broad-based that it makes sense that I examine the theoretical possibility of a new bull market being born. Short-term, the VIX and VVIX moves point to a serious uptick in volatility ahead – it‘s approaching, but given the strong bond market performance on Friday, not likely to happen at the very start of the week. Given the positive reaction to consumer confidence data coming in above expectations – it wasn‘t that hard to see in the aftermath of the data release – this run in stocks isn‘t yet done, and still has the potential to come nearer to the 200-day moving average, currently at 4,328.The moving average itself is though sloping downwards, which puts extra pressure on this run. Neither Nasdaq has conquerred its own 200-day moving average, so far just value stocks and Russell 2000 did. What are though the prospects for the broad rally to continue? All right, we closed above the 50% retracement from the Jun bottom, but was this the final bottom or is there more to the bear market still, enough to force a 10-15% decline from here? Was there any kind of catalyst to lift stocks up back then in Jun?Are earnings going to increase from here still? Who is going to be willing to pay higher earnings per share when the real economy is on the verge of recession, yield curve in deep inversion, corporations laying off or implementing hiring freezes? Are valuations going to increase when liquidity not only in the U.S. but around the world is still falling? After the Fed says they want to take Fed funds rate to 4% practically speaking, eurozone is tightening, U.K. is tightening, heck even Argentina has raised rates to 69.5%. Just Japan is running easy money policy, resulting in the yen taking it on the chin – and the only other key country lowering rates, is Russia. When it comes to energy security and resilience, the West remains vulnerable to another exogenous shock, and I‘m not even raising China‘s latest response (round one) catching the headlines. Expansive fiscal policy won‘t carry the weight really.There is plenty that can go wrong about the stock market bull run, and the only question is whether the bears would be able to drive S&P 500 below 4,000, and how deep below that. This is based on more than the awaiting recognition of Fed pivot being a misguided bet. Forgetting about tail risk for a moment, I think the most probable outcome is still a dip below 3,950, precisely because of waning liquidity (the Fed is only setting off on its $95bn monthly balance sheet shrinking), squeezed profit margins, lower earning for at least three quarters ahead, manufacturing recession approaching (ISM dipping below 50), and lower P/E ratios as money moves into commodities and precious metals over the months ahead.The Fed is focused on tackling the runaway inflation horse, which would have severe consequences for the job market. Unemployment claims – which are the most leading indicator thereof (non-farm payrolls rather lag) have been quite consistently moving higher recently. The macro landscape isn‘t brightening – the degree of the upcoming recession is what remains to be seen, as for all the headwinds mentioned, I don‘t think the Fed would either manage to engineer a soft landing, or have any immediate plans to step away from tightening any time soon. Similarly, inflation hasn‘t been defeated, isn‘t going below 5% YoY, and would prove sticky, preventing the Fed to go at least neutral or start cutting rates early 2023 – that‘s quite a few bullish macro hopes having low odds of materializing.That‘s why I am looking for a serious reality check to the S&P 500 run.

S&P 500 did another daily reversal, but the bears haven‘t yet won. The risk-on in stocks hasn‘t been broken as value demonstrates, but bonds are getting the macro picture right, as they often do – the Fed is to remain hawkish as Daly reaffirmed, which would help keep real assets in check while that lasts. Precious metals proved their sensitivity to sharp increases in yields – this recognition of the tightening reality played out on the long end of the curve, not affecting the continued rate raising expectations for Sep FOMC really (regardless of the inconsistent market interpretations of both CPI and PPI).To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookEven if S&P 500 pushes higher today on better than expected consumer sentiment data (relief at the pump), the bears are likely to break below the 4,212 support next week (if not later today already).Credit MarketsHYG is likely to retrace a part of yesterday‘s reversal – a proper reversal as the volume confirms while quality debt instruments would play a lesser role in moving stocks today. Clearly, bonds aren‘t bullish here, and the deterioration is to continue over the weeks ahead.Bitcoin and EthereumSimilarly in cryptos, no game changer happened, and the rally is looking tired.

S&P 500 bulls went on to extend and defend gains following the fireworks reaction to CPI (as if inflation were banished by one 0% MoM reading), and bonds overall bought reasonably well into the idea. Treasuries though seem more reserved about the essence of the underlying bullish bets – Fed pivot isn‘t coming, and the central bank isn‘t backing off tightening. Odds are today‘s PPI shows quite some inflation fight ahead still (how sticky it would turn out, is underappreciated) – what an understatement in this decade of inflation, generally higher rates, and rising real assets.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers.. .Crude OilCrude oil is catching a bid but still noticeably lagging behind oil stocks. Clearing $95 convincingly would technically change the outlook to bullish, but I remain cautious on account of stiff seasonality headwinds till late Oct, and SPR drawdowns before the midterms.CopperCopper keeps showing strength, and the same goes for other base metals. Slowly grinding higher until the focus turns to the monetary policy.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving the short-term nod to the risk-on rally, no top immediately ahead yet.

S&P 500 bulls didn‘t even meekly take initiative yesterday, and odds are this positioning would hold through today‘s CPI – and crucially the regular session‘s reaction to it. Bonds have made up their mind, it clearly seems as the pressure on the Fed to keep tightening, is on. As stated yesterday:(…) Given tomorrow‘s CPI that‘s likely to come in better than the markets fear it would (i.e. in support of the inflation has peaked thesis), the room for disappointment in inflation trades is there, and the hopes that the Fed might not get as aggressive on a better CPI figure, wouldn‘t balance that out in my view.The dollar would react with a decline to any dialing back of tightening expectations. Greater pressure would still come from the balance sheet reduction that I‘m looking for to run for longer than the Fed stops hiking rates.What‘s key next, is follow through to the S&P 500 selling, facilitated by the broader risk-off turn – a confirmed break below the 4,100s support is the milestone ahead. Notions of peaking inflation won‘t do the trick and drive stocks sustainably higher – dialing back the Fed tightening expectations would come back to bite the bulls. Precious metals are to remain relatively most resilient (and be joined to some degree by copper) while oil is most vulnerable on the daily basis.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers.Crude OilCrude oil is still vulnerable (and it‘s telling that S&P 500 can‘t rise even on progressively lower oil prices and USDX daily struggle). The bears are favored unless $95 is cleared.CopperCopper‘s short-term bullish move is encouraging, but the vulnerability to the hawkish Fed moves and rhetoric remains – it would probably play out well after the CPI dust settles. The red metal is now enjoying the prospects of easier liquidity.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are joining in the celebration, and it remains to be seen when the risk-on sentiment comes under scrutiny. The Fed won‘t just go 25bp in Sep, not at all – markets would be disappointed as soon as first Fed official starts talking again (as was the case last week).

S&P 500 bulls were clearly rejected, and it‘s highly questionable whether they would make another run. I doubt they would. And even if, it‘s bound to get rejected as none of the bearish fundamental reasoning ceased to apply, and it‘s getting reflected in the chart technicals as well. As stated yesterday: (…) The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong headline NFPs figure, will take their toll on risk-on assets that had been driving Friday‘s run. Bets on another 75bp hike in Sep have increased dramatically, practically proving Daly or Kashkari right in that the Fed isn‘t done yet or even close to the Fed funds rate to really get inflation down. While they claim that 2% is doable and soft landing within reach, the progression from 9% downwards just doesn‘t go fast like that. At best (repeating myself for months here), they would get to 5-6% CPI, which means a tough Sep and one more FOMC still this year. Combined with balnce sheet shrinking projections, that would take a great toll on the real economy – one that is being softened by the still very expansive fiscal policy. Given tomorrow‘s CPI that‘s likely to come in better than the markets fear it would (i.e. in support of the inflation has peaked thesis), the room for disappointment in inflation trades is there, and the hopes that the Fed might not get as aggressive on a better CPI figure, wouldn‘t balance that out in my view. Here comes a fitting question just in that allows me to develop these thoughts further to the benefit of the whole audience: Q: CPI wednesday will certainly show much lower numbers than previously (mainly because oil was recently much cheaper than in May, June). FED has proven to be rather readily dovish in such events. Investors will see the US companies and the US technology sector as the safe haven. Because elsewhere in the world (mainly in politically and economically weak Europe) is a mess. US as safe-heaven was proven by recent Apple and Amazon earnings and also by recently approved US government stimulus for micro-chip / semiconductor production. Isn't this environment rather bullish for US equities especially to the near future ?? Outflow of money from Europe into strong and safe US. A: I doubt the Fed would react dovishly to softening inflation as they have to take on the pesky inflation expectations (it was a key lesson of the 1970s when they didn‘t). It gives them optically a better chance at taking inflation down fast – and the markets would wake up to their dovish perception mistake, should they make it in the first place. The fiscal stimulus is though being faded in the stock market, it‘s closer to the case of sell the news than anything else. The money flows are going to be selective about what assets they would lift, and odds are it wouldn‘t be parked in tech for too long if Treasuries stop revolting against the Fed‘s rate raising. Such a time point would come over the nearest months ahead, but still I am not counting on any giant Nasdaq run, or rather any run to speak of (no matter the degree of Treasuries‘ next move). To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, which I am unlocking today in full so that you get a better the regular care premium subscribers get, especially before tomorrow‘s inflation data. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is turning down, and Friday‘s signal is getting repeated – i.e. getting stronger. The daily indicators have also deteriorated, but the volume and sectoral internals message is the most important here. Credit Markets HYG indeed attracted sell – and the reversal to the downside needs a confirmation today in terms of rising volume and daily close anywhere in the Friday‘s daily range. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals want to turn up, and miners are at least on a daily basis following. Echoing yesterday‘s premium thoughts, they aren‘t selling too hard on the turn towards anticipating tougher tightening ahead. With hikes to be paused after Sep for a while, the metals would have an easier time before that FOMC day in Sep. Next week‘s CPI will have a short-term effect only – the consequences of recognizing inflation as sticky no matter what the Fed has done already, would be greater. This moment awaits still. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s rebound isn‘t yet turning the tide, and the approaching seasonality spells trouble ahead. I‘m still leaning towards the $88 support slowly giving way as $85 approach comes next – we may land in the low 80s really before rebounding early November. Copper Copper‘s short-term bullish move is encouraging, but the vulnerability to the hawkish Fed moves and rhetoric remains – it would probably play out after the CPI only, which applies also to oil. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are clearly reversing, and that‘s a good sign for those betting on a bearish resolution of tomrorow‘s inflation data overall.

S&P 500 bulls made a good run, but didn‘t deal with the bearish outcome looming, The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong headline NFPs figure, will take their toll on risk-on assets that had been driving Friday‘s run. Bets on another 75bp hike in Sep have increased dramatically, practically proving Daly or Kashkari right in that the Fed isn‘t done yet or even close to the Fed funds rate to really get inflation down. While they claim that 2% is doable and soft landing within reach, the progression from 9% downwards just doesn‘t go fast like that. At best (repeating myself for months here), they would get to 5-6% CPI, which means a tough Sep and one more FOMC still this year. Combined with balnce sheet shrinking projections, that would take a great toll on the real economy – one that is being softened by the still very expansive fiscal policy. Let‘s look around the world (apart from the troubles in Europe and Asia such as shown in JPY weakness), many other central banks are tightening, Latin America is also tightening. It‘s not only UK and the implications discussed on Friday: (…) Let‘s have a look at yesterday‘s Bank of England moves, kind of foreshadowing what‘s reasonable to expect from the Fed. In the UK, the prospect of entering recession Q4 2022 amd remaining in it for more than a couple of quarters, is being acknowledged. The central bank though intends to keep tightening anyway, preferring to take on inflation after it ran out of control longer they publicly anticipated. Meanwhile in the States, unemployment claims have edged higher – indicative of growing softness in the labor market. Long-dated Treasuries continue rising as is appropriate in these conditions of economic slowdown slowly gathering pace. Similarly to inflation expectations, they‘re not yet taking the Fed‘s hawkish rhetoric absolutely seriously unlike commodity prices that are at best carving out a bullish divergence (still in the making, therefore without implications yet). Precious metals appear farther along the route of acknowledging the upcoming stagflationary reality as I continue looking for inflation to remain in the stubbornly high 5-6% range no matter the Fed‘s actions over the next 3 FOMC meetings at least. Obviously, the hotter the underlying markets, the more tightening has to be done, and that‘s extra headwind for the markets, and one making the Fed pivot a bit more elusive. The key thing that has changed from the above, is the turn in yields – Treasuries would have a harder time rising now, but given that I expect better CPI on Wednesday (oil is down and hasn‘t bottomed yet etc), yields should retreat in what I look to be a positive market reaction – one of hoping that the Fed wouldn‘t tighten that much as is feared today they would. This wouldn‘t however save the stock market bulls. Consider though as well where the Fed funds rate is now, and how far above 3% Powell can take it. He will try, sure, but even 4% in our debt based economy would prove bridge too far when it comes to any soft landing (stating the very obvious). Back during the last successful one (mid 1990s), we were going through genuinely positive tech revolution that helped cushion restrictive monetary policy – these macro implications for productivity growth don‘t apply now. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is clinging by the finernails, and the only question remains whether we have a few dozen points still to go on the upside to reach even more excessive bullishness, or whether the slow grind lower is assuming the reins from here. The bull trap is almost complete. Credit Markets HYG is going to attract a sell in the not too distant future – more so than it did on Friday. The opening gap was more than half closed, but this isn‘t going to last. All it takes to bring junk bonds down, is more conviction about the Fed‘s hawkish path ahead. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are slightly up, which bodes well for risk taking. Not expecting huge gains today here or in SPX, but a reversal of Friday‘s setback.

S&P 500 bearish overtures were refused, bonds remained optically risk-on and strong, but the true picture reflects a daily stall. Refusal to drive prices higher in the absence of convincing, credibly strong NFPs. I have a hunch that a careful look under the hood would reveal some signs of weakness in the job market, the way hours worked last time did. While the Fed isn‘t drumming this point really as tightening would come at the expense of unemployment rate, because wage inflation needs to be broken down as well in order to get overall inflation under control. Some officials such as Kashkari aren‘t hiding the fact it would take several years to achieve the 2% goal again. Let‘s have a look at yesterday‘s Bank of England moves, kind of foreshadowing what‘s reasonable to expect from the Fed. In the UK, the prospect of entering recession Q4 2022 amd remaining in it for more than a couple of quarters, is being acknowledged. The central bank though intends to keep tightening anyway, preferring to take on inflation after it ran out of control longer they publicly anticipated. Meanwhile in the States, unemployment claims have edged higher – indicative of growing softness in the labor market. Long-dated Treasuries continue rising as is appropriate in these conditions of economic slowdown slowly gathering pace. Similarly to inflation expectations, they‘re not yet taking the Fed‘s hawkish rhetoric absolutely seriously unlike commodity prices that are at best carving out a bullish divergence (still in the making, therefore without implications yet). Precious metals appear farther along the route of acknowledging the upcoming stagflationary reality as I continue looking for inflation to remain in the stubbornly high 5-6% range no matter the Fed‘s actions over the next 3 FOMC meetings at least. Obviously, the hotter the underlying markets, the more tightening has to be done, and that‘s extra headwind for the markets, and one making the Fed pivot a bit more elusive. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, which I'm exceptionally unlocking today in full so that you can get a better idea about the care (plus trade calls and intraday updates) premium subscribers regularly get. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 underwent a daily consolidation, preparing for a spike that should be sold into. The bull trap is almost complete with VIX pushing to 21 – the degree of the overshoot is what matters. Credit Markets HYG is going to attract a sell in the not too distant future. Its upswing isn‘t accompanied by coresponding rise in cyclicals, in risk-on sectors – there is still much defensive / slow growth driven flavor about the stock market rally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals turned strongly up yesterday, but not yet absolutely decisively – there was some upper knot, and the volume could be higher too. Positive day in need of quite some follow through. Crude Oil Crude oil weakness is getting the bulls worried, and I‘m leaning towards the $88 support slwoly giving way as $85 approach comes next. Longs are suitable only for medium-term investors. Copper Copper is holding up, but should another setback strike commodities, the red metal wouldn‘t escape unscathed. Short-term, the move in base metals is positive but it‘s too early to say whether that can survive the autumn storms. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are expecting a good outcome today – this is where the earliest signs of disappointment and peak would be found.

S&P 500 rose, driven by tech at expense of value, which is normail in economic slowdowns. The junk bond rally however stands out – a prime candidate to attract selling at the nearest whiff of risk-off. The many fundamental reasons described in Monday‘s article, remain intact, if there weren‘t geopolitical ones. Tellingly, the yield curve inversion continues deepening, and bonds aren‘t buying the tightening story in the least – they fear the Fed overdoing it. And that‘s a key catalyst behind yesterday‘s decline in real assets, with its new interpretations of neutral Fed funds rate, or „having enough not to make trade-offs“ inflation remarks.Sure, ISM services PMI provided a daily boost to the rally, and so the revamp calculations behind tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls would work (would the pesky hours worked sending the opposite message, get recalculated as well?) in a bid to keep the increasingly FOMO confidence in the S&P 500 rally going. It still has the hallmarks of a short-covering rally, and not of genuine animal spirits – that doesn‘t square with the dreaded R word. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers.. S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rising volume says that it‘s not yet time to get resolutely rejected. When XLY starts weakening, that would be a good time to be onboard with a short position.Credit MarketsTLT hasn‘t topped yet in the least, the run against the Fed would continue – Treasuries are to peak in November. But first and still this month, HYG would be getting into increadingly hot water.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos continue losing altitude, and intraday upswings aren‘t indeed to be trusted – as said yesterday, no technically significant level would be breached, there is nothing to turn this ship around yet.

S&P 500 refused to swing higher yesterday, and bonds weren‘t much risk-on either. Revisiting the neutral Fed funds rate comments didn‘t do much good for risk sentiment, even though HYG doesn‘t yet reflect that with its closing price. A new attempt at 4,140s looks to be in the making, and even if we get a break higher, it‘s going to be a fake one, and fail. It would also coincide with a rejection of lower VIX values around 22, in favor of reverting back to the high 20s recent average.The current optimism seems misplaced, and the upcoming ISM services PMI would reveal the slowly deteriorating internals of economic growth. Coupled with manufacturing PMI, these leading indicators illustrate a tough real economy to come in late 2022 / early 2023 – the dreaded R word.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 may be carving out a bullish flag, but I‘m not looking for any break higher to stick.Credit MarketsTLT hasn‘t topped yet, and as we progress along in Aug, HYG would be getting into increadingly hot waters even if there is not that much chart deterioration visible now. The implications are bearish stocks in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos continue being vulnerable, and I do9n‘t trust the intraday upswing – no technically significant level would be breached, there is nothing to turn this ship around yet.

S&P 500 met its daily setback, one that has potential to develop over Aug into a more serious one. Financials and consumer discretionaries are signalling a pause in the rally ahead – a pause as a minimum, gradual rollover to the downside is more likely. Bonds made a serious risk-off turn but the bullish juices haven‘t run out yet. Well, the rise in long-term bonds that I first called for to happen in mid May, is unfolding, and we have higher to go – yields have peaked, and Treasuries are now set to rise in reflection of deteriorating economy.The Fed isn‘t done with its tightening, wage inflation would be getting as much checked as commodities lately – and the optimistic take on the July FOMC would give way to more down to earth interpretations – quoting from yesterday‘s extensive analysis:The stock market pendulum has since decidedly swung in the bullish direction, yet I‘m looking for this rally to run out of steam, and roll over. Remember that Powell said that with the 75bp hike, the Fed funds rate is now close to neutral. Sure that inflation is peaking and the following CPI readings would be a little more pleasant deceleration rather than acceleration continuation (PCE at 6.8% annualized is highest since 1982), but the Fed would take the opportunity and try pushing the Fed funds rate a bit above what it sees as the natural rate. And I am not even raising the aspiration to be shrinking the balance sheet by up to the whopping $95bn a month (something similar went on into spring 2019, well after the hikes of 2018 ended), which would cool down the housing market a lot more than it appears to be the projected case now. Also the job market effects would take the unemployment rate noticeably higher, and that would deal with the wage inflation while the cost push one would decelerate, yet service driven one remain unyielding. Simply put, inflation is to cool off somewhat.Apart from macroeconomic reality catching up with the bear market rally, it‘s also earnings projections where I am looking for quite a few downgrades in the 2H 2022. Coupled with the Fed surprising the markets on the balance sheet reduction front (there isn‘t enough attention paid to this yet – let alone to the liquidity withdrawal aftermath), and the deepening yield curve inversion, we‘re in for a lot of recessionary trouble – at the very least teetering on the brink already. Deteriorating consumer sentiment would also cascade into retail sales – coming full circle to the earnings ahead.The S&P 500 and crypto short profits can keep growing. More insights are available for premium subscribers. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are pausing, but likely to carve out a higher low next – especially when it comes to gold, followed by silver. Miners aren‘t yet the ideal place to be in, but that could start to change on a sharper daily stock market drop.Crude OilCrude oil is thus far defending $93, remaining kind of in a no man‘s land between $93 and $98. Inflation trades continue being taken down a notch or two, but black gold is to remain better insulated than base metals.CopperCopper is set to lose some shine, bearing the brunt of the real economy and liquidity prospects sensitivities. $3.00 should hold throughout Aug.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos continue being vulnerable – their path ahead is of a slow and steady grind lower, taking on or exceeding prior lows, especially in Bitcoin.

S&P 500 nary consolidated, and continued higher as was most likely. Dollar down, bonds up and the risk appetite was visible very well across real assets especially. Given the weakening in bonds before the closing bell, and the extended position of tech stocks, some real daily consolidation wouldn‘t be that surprising on Monday – I‘m looking for the stock market to stall during August, and to roll over. It‘s still my view that we‘re in a bear market – that a new bull run hasn‘t yet begun – and that a washout in the very least, awaits us. Still before the Sep FOMC.Let‘s come back to the anticipated Wednesday bullish turn, and quote from the lengthy explanation I published Thursday:(...) On one hand, the 75bp rate hike is over, on the other hand less clarity about future rate hikes rules now – markets remained anchored in the now, running with the glass is half full message. The part where Powell mentioned that an aggressive September rate hike is on the table if justified by incoming inflation data (an outsized September one won‘t happen in my view), got less scrutiny. And the same goes for his willingness to tolerate below-trend economic growth and some pain in the labor market. So, why is the market rallying then? The upcoming CPI would come in a bit softer on account of the June gasoline and heating oil peaks, which would be balanced out against unrelenting services inflation. Think rents that are lagging behind the housing prices – housing is only starting to cool down. There is more pain ahead, but of course the consumer discretionaries don‘t see that yet – it‘s not the right time as the consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet filtered through to retail sales. Compared to what awaits at year end, the U.S. economy is still doing very fine now (however incredibly this sounds to the very sensitive small business owners, close to half of who perceive the U.S. already to be in a recession). Coupled with tech layoffs, hiring freezes, and e.g. bad META earnings just in, this weakness isn‘t yet universal as the key aspect of the prior 4 weeks was this – the 100bp rate July hike that I didn‘t trust one bit as coming, took the markets down inordinately (the bears got ahead of themselves simply). Reversion to the mean – talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis – is thus winning.The stock market pendulum has since decidedly swung in the bullish direction, yet I‘m looking for this rally to run out of steam, and roll over. Remember that Powell said that with the 75bp hike, the Fed funds rate is now close to neutral. Sure that inflation is peaking and the following CPI readings would be a little more pleasant deceleration rather than acceleration continuation (PCE at 6.8% annualized is highest since 1982), but the Fed would take the opportunity and try pushing the Fed funds rate a bit above what it sees as the natural rate. And I am not even raising the aspiration to be shrinking the balance sheet by up to the whopping $95bn a month (something similar went on into spring 2019, well after the hikes of 2018 ended), which would cool down the housing market a lot more than it appears to be the projected case now. Also the job market effects would take the unemployment rate noticeably higher, and that would deal with the wage inflation while the cost push one would decelerate, yet service driven one remain unyielding. Simply put, inflation is to cool off somewhat.Apart from macroeconomic reality catching up with the bear market rally, it‘s also earnings projections where I am looking for quite a few downgrades in the 2H 2022. Coupled with the Fed surprising the markets on the balance sheet reduction front (there isn‘t enough attention paid to this yet – let alone to the liquidity withdrawal aftermath), and the deepening yield curve inversion, we‘re in for a lot of recessionary trouble – at the very least teetering on the brink already. Deteriorating consumer sentiment would also cascade into retail sales – coming full circle to the earnings ahead.Precious metals are buying the monetary shift arguably the best, copper is following with certain reservations – but crude oil continues basing, and lagging behind oil stocks. Black gold still has great potential to surprise on the upside (the tail risk) – the Fed can‘t increase supply of anything real, it can just cool down the economy (decrease demand), which they are doing successfully. That‘s the only way given the circumstances how Powell can get inflation somewhat under control.Today, I’m releasing the extended analytical synopsis customarily available for premium subscribers who enjoy some more stocks and bonds charts with observations.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals haven‘t yet met the sellers, but the pace of gains immediately ahead, would slow down. Miners are still lagging, and need to catch up. As yields are likely to retreat, helping the dollar down a little, gold and silver would act on the medium-term advantage.Crude OilCrude oil upper knot is a short-term worrying sign, but has good odds to be gradually overcome. It‘s not a show-stopper but a minor setback. The real economy isn‘t cooling down all that quickly, and the SPR releases obviously don‘t have a lasting or too significant effect.CopperCopper is duly benefiting, the upswing in commodities can continue for a while longer, but the peak in base metals (zinc, nickel etc) tells me that the rest of 2022 would be characterized by slowly declining inflation, especially its part coming from raw materials.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are losing momentum, and even if they put up some fight early Aug, the bears have taken over the reins.

S&P 500 did a brief intraday downswing yesterday – very fast erased. Bonds strong, market breadth further improving, FOMO almost kicking in – and then AAPL and AMZN earnings interpretation provided for a fresh upleg aftermarket. Stock prices are to stall somewhat next, but not to roll over into a new downtrend – not yet. There is time, and early next week isn‘t yet flashing even just amber. Likewise the rally in precious metals is to continue, with miners still ridiculously inexpensive. Crude oil preparing for a new upleg in the $98 area while copper isn‘t giving up just below $3.50 either. Cryptos are signalling a weak entry to today‘s regular session, that‘s all – Monday is going to be a relatively good day across the board should today not turn out peachy (it won‘t be rosy, but won‘t be a disaster either).Today, I’m again releasing (this time very brief) analytical synopsis customarily available for premium subscribers.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is looking good – a bit of backing and filling next wouldn‘t hurt, and the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The reactions to latest earnings, guidance and Fed, had been optimistic, and I see no reason facilitating a sharp reversal early next week.Credit MarketsHYG extended gains, quality debt instruments joined in, yet the risk-on turn is likely to get less pronounced today. It isn‘t over though, but bonds would facilitate a little consolidation in stocks next – one that didn‘t arrive yesterday, but appears knocking on the door timidly today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals posture has significantly brightened up, and the months ahead are looking really good now. Inflation unpleasantly high, yields down, dollar barely up – this is a good constellation. Sensing a Fed pivot.

S&P 500 slowly rising into the FOMC served to confirm the upcoming bullish interpretation of Fed moves. On one hand, the 75bp rate hike is over, on the other hand less clarity about future rate hikes rules now – markets remained anchored in the now, running with the glass is half full message. The part where Powell mentioned that an aggressive September rate hike is on the table if justified by incoming inflation data (an outsized September one won‘t happen in my view), got less scrutiny. And the same goes for his willingness to tolerate below-trend economic growth and some pain in the labor market. So, why is the market rallying then? The upcoming CPI would come in a bit softer on account of the June gasoline and heating oil peaks, which would be balanced out against unrelenting services inflation. Think rents that are lagging behind the housing prices – housing is only starting to cool down. There is more pain ahead, but of course the consumer discretionaries don‘t see that yet – it‘s not the right time as the consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet filtered through to retail sales. Compared to what awaits at year end, the U.S. economy is still doing very fine now (however incredibly this sounds to the very sensitive small business owners, close to half of who perceive the U.S. already to be in a recession). Coupled with tech layoffs, hiring freezes, and e.g. bad META earnings just in, this weakness isn‘t yet universal as the key aspect of the prior 4 weeks was this – the 100bp rate July hike that I didn‘t trust one bit as coming, took the markets down inordinately (the bears got ahead of themselves simply). Reversion to the mean – talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis – is thus winning.Precious metals are sensing the monetary shift arguably the best – a strong session in the miners is ahead. Even copper is to shine before any sentiment setbacks put the lid upon price gains next again. Crude oil is likely to remain well bid, and any (look for them to be rather shallow) declines are to be reversed relatively fast. As regards cryptos, they would benefit as well, with the most significant appreciation already behind us – there is easier fruit to pick elsewhere, especially in the precious metals that are getting ready for a great autumn ahead.Today, I’ve released all the analytical thoughts customarily available for premium subscribers) so that you know what to expect both before and after turning points, what kind of efforts and preparation do get into these. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is about to continue rising, shaking off the Q2 GDP data in preference of the Fed not going too hawkish. The rich caption says it all.Credit MarketsHYG had duly reversed, and been patiently extending gains going into FOMC – bonds agree with the risk-on interpretation. Time to go up still before worsening reality takes over.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals posture has brightened up, and the months ahead are indeed looking much better now. The reaction to the following Fed jawboning would be telling, but we have a few weeks to go still.

S&P 500 declined, but the short-term bullish case is far from lost. There is a stark contrast to yesterday‘s tech earnings as opposed to Walmart or Snapchat lately – shifting focus to the current stage of the economy, which isn‘t that gloomy yet, regardless of the likely negative quarterly GDP figure coming tomorrow. Coupled with the subsequent Yellen press conference, we have a lot of not-a-recession talk to look forward for. After all, the greatest deterioration is in the leading components, and that takes time to seep into coincident indicators – late 2022 pr early 2023 looks to be a better timing for an officially declared recession. With the Fed doing 75bp hike, and no more, the table is set for a relief rally later today, and for getting second thoughts tomorrow (as usual lately, one day after FOMC). More thoughts covering other markets, are available for premium subscribers). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals gave some bullish signals for the short term, but this bottoming process isn‘t over yet – especially in time isn‘t over yet. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t stage a genuine reversal – the turnaround is set to continue. Given how much time has passed since the $93 test, and how far oil stocks have travelled, the bullish case is clear beyond medium term. Copper Copper sure has issues rising, but the willingness to try is there. More time is needed to enable such a move – the macroeconomic factors still speak against betting big on the long side here. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t making progress, and aren‘t following the simmering risk-on sentiment. As stated yesterday, increased focus on all that‘s wrong in the space, doesn‘t help, and the situation isn‘t likely to improve in the short run.

S&P 500 consolidated in a narrow range yesterday, and didn‘t offer too many clues apart from bonds doing relatively fine – and one more sign pointing towards the likely path of current trading range‘s resolution (reserved for premium subscribers).What the junk bonds are telling here, is that the bears are momentarily a little ahead of themselves – as stated in yesterday‘s key analysis, the tech earnings:(…) wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either.Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. Precious metals don‘t look to have bottomed yet – miners remain too weak, and their decisive upswing on rising volume is the missing ingredient. The situation in crude oil is obviously much brighter – and the same goes for natural gas. Copper is likewise going to see brighter days ahead, riding the (under the hood) risk-on sentiment more reliably than cryptos. The following chart section covers deeper insights into the respective markets.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals don‘t look yet optimistic, and miners need to turn up really – yesterday‘s NEM session was highly disappointing. As said yesterday, unless we see gold to decouple from the dollar or the dollar to roll over, the start of a new PMs upleg is postponed – the Fed needs to get questioned on the still unpleasantly elevated (future) inflation first. Autumn appears a good time for reversal in gold, followed then by silver.Crude OilCrude oil is turning around – this is indeed the most resilient commodity, right after natural gas (sticking with energy). Oil stocks aren‘t lagging badlym which is good – see the progress made since mid July.CopperCopper is about to extend gains, but the red metal isn‘t out of the woods – the base metals as such haven‘t really moved. That‘s a current reflection of the stagflationary reality awaiting a couple of quarters down the road.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t making progress, and are instead decoupling from the simmering risk-on sentiment. Increased focus on all that‘s wrong in the space, doesn‘t help – the bears remain in the driver‘s seat.

S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even cover all this time of upcoming key tech earnings reports. These wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either. Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers. Precious metals are cautiously trying to bottom here, and miners easpecially are weak. Bottoming is a process, and this one doesn‘t look to be over yet. When the dollar reverses to the downside, the selling of gold is bound to stop – we‘re getting there, and the new strong upleg would reflect the still unpleasantly high inflation, lower yields, and further deterioration of economic prospects. Crude oil would still do fine in such an environment as newly dented Fed credibility (coming from the current crowd of the central bank getting inflation under control and engineering soft landing at the same time) would help drive a new upleg in commodities as well. That‘s when we can look forward for better days in copper too. Cryptos in the short run are leaning towards the no slide in risk assets scenarios. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t reverse for good yet – the bulls haven‘t spoken their last word. 50-day moving average is flattening, meaning that the bulls would be gaining short-term advantage each day that prices don‘t meaningfully return below the blue line. Credit Markets I view Friday‘s HYG move as consolidation – the fact that junk bonds are short-term leading higher, is positive for the stock market. One would expect that they would reflect the worsening economic outlook and be avoided, but the imemdiate economic circumstances aren‘t catastrophic. Copper Copper is only relatively resilient, and while it‘s likely to extend Friday‘s gains a little, it‘s far from out of the woods. Further downside or a prolonged sideways consolidation before rising again, is most likely in the medium term. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are deceptively weak today, and the bulls would likely step in next. I‘m not looking for steep gains, but for sideways to gently upwards price action.

S&P 500 recovered from the inial bout of selling, and so did bonds. Whether the risk-on upswing stalls today or next week only, it still looks set to stall as the 50-day moving average would stop stock market bulls before the July Fed. Nothing too striking in the sectoral view yesterday – it‘s though positive that financials had a good day, and oil stocks also did a good job recovering from the early setback. But there is no escaping the earnings downgrades ahead, and the coming move lower can‘t be explained by the adjustment in P/E ratio really. I am cautiously optimistic about yesterday‘s heavy volume in gold as the yellow metal defended $1,680 – waiting for miners to kick into a higher gear. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is looking fine, and the question remains whether it reverses from 4,020s or a bit higher – that‘s still my leading scenario at the moment. Taking a careful look at market breadth next – whether the positive developments discussed in the opening part of today‘s analysis, get stronger or not. Credit Markets HYG is still leaning the bullish way, hasn‘t run out of steam yet. Dollar being unable to keep yesterday‘s modest gains, played a role. Bond markets are likely to stall today, and it would be indicative whether HYG makes further progress or not. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos want to rise, the weekend ahead looks quite fine, which is in line with the idea that stocks wouldn‘t roll over to the downside sharply today.

S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is getting tired, and may roll over either today or next week only. The 50-day moving average is to provide solid resistance, but its power may not kick in precisely today. Anyway, this is a moment to be cautious. VIX agrees, we‘re to turn higher in volatility, and that means stocks resuming the downswing.Credit MarketsHYG looks pretty ominous – I‘m counting on the bulls to give up soon. Coupled with the dollar swinging higher yesterday, the odds start aligning against stock market bulls as much as by the lack of value‘s appreciation.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos refused further upside, and that‘s a sign in its own class. The headwinds are going to toughen, stretching from quite a few real assets into Bitcoin and Ethereum as well.

S&P 500 reached my initial target of 3,940, and turned out indeed slated for premarket consolidation today. No signs of daily weakness either in tech or value – market breadth is improving. The bottom isn‘t yet in as the washout is still ahead – yes, we‘re still in a larger bear market, and the fundamental dynamics of Fed‘s options to fight inflation while the U.S. is still set to avoid recession in the traditional sense of the word, is setting tone. The weakness in consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet translated into declining retail sales, and the July reprieve at the pump (oil prices serve as a shadow Fed funds rate), would go a long way in helping the Fed regain some of the inflation fighter luster lost. More thoughts beyond this immediate stock market are reserved for premium subscribers. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t taken the dollar‘s cue, and that spells more short-term trouble. Not even volume is coming back to gold really. Miners to gold ratio is at least going sideways already – we have quite a few more weeks of tested patience and pain in the metals before the new upleg starts developing. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising very modestly, and needs more days backing and filling before conquering $105 again. The volume continues favoring the bulls – this week would be good. Copper Copper is turning around only in the short-term. The red metal would participate in the risk-on upswing unfolding, but underperform – it‘s still vulnerable to a takedown. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t looking bad at all today – probably the key sign is that Bitcoin or Ethereum aren‘t declining. This is another chart (similarly to stocks and bonds) looking for fresh buyers so that the upswing can continue a little longer.

S&P 500 gave up opening gains, a bit too easily. The 3,880s didn‘t hold, and bonds lost their risk-on posture. Yields rose, but the dollar declined – and the greenback doesn‘t look to be out of the woods even though I‘m looking for it to top out and roll over later than in July still. Apart from bonds, one good reason why stocks bulls aren‘t yet done, is the good performance of value (in spite of the darkening clouds in financials). More thoughts regarding the immediate stock market are reserved for premium subscribers. Keeping in mind the key macro thoughts from yesterday‘s extensive analysis: (…) Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture. True, economic growth is slowing, and we are likely to get a slightly negative Q2 GDP reading, but given the way GDP is constructed (this setback would be driven by inventories and trade balance), I don‘t see NBER as likely to declare the U.S. to be in a recession. Europe, that‘s another story entirely – in the worst case that the Fed doesn‘t succeed in its soft landing, we‘re looking at an early 2023 U.S. recession – regardless of the housing turmoil gathering steam, the States are largely insulated from the darkening clouds worldwide. I‘m looking for a quite good Q4 of S&P 500 gains, but at the same time, remember that the current bottoming is a process, and I view the approaching washout (give it 2 weeks to start roughly) as the likeliest scenario still. So, enjoy the positive seasonality of a few good weeks of July still ahead. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is at a crossroads, the fate of which would be decided in the first half of today‘s session. I‘m looking for moderate degree of optimism, paring back a great deal of yesterday‘s setback. It would be highly encouraging should value again do better than tech. Copper Copper isn‘t surprising on the upside, and little wonder – I would personally wait for the dust to settle, and load up the truck on the next wave of capitulation. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t looking bad at all – we are likely to see increased volume with downswing rejection aka indecision today. So far so good.

S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase, it was (and will be) up to tech to outperform value. Also healthcare is likely to see brighter times ahead. If I were to pick two reasons for why I think stocks are bottoming here, it would be the risk-on turn in bonds accompanied by the 10-year yield soundly below 3.25%, and the capitulation in oil stocks (former star performer as these are likely to get pulled down among the last sectors while the key laggards such as tech are on the verge of starting to outperform) coupled with oil holding my $93 support. Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture. [This is approximately where I do imagine the end of freely available introduction of extensive articles, which would then be enriched with select chart section(s). Today exceptionally and only, I‘ll be making the full introduction available so that you can see what kind of a key analysis the premium subscribers get.] True, economic growth is slowing, and we are likely to get a slightly negative Q2 GDP reading, but given the way GDP is constructed (this setback would be driven by inventories and trade balance), I don‘t see NBER as likely to declare the U.S. to be in a recession. Europe, that‘s another story entirely – in the worst case that the Fed doesn‘t succeed in its soft landing, we‘re looking at an early 2023 U.S. recession – regardless of the housing turmoil gathering steam, the States are largely insulated from the darkening clouds worldwide. I‘m looking for a quite good Q4 of S&P 500 gains, but at the same time, remember that the current bottoming is a process, and I view the approaching washout (give it 2 weeks to start roughly) as the likeliest scenario still. So, enjoy the positive seasonality of a few good weeks of July still ahead. Precious metals don‘t like the strong dollar and tightening prospects ahead, and Powell essentially saying that if having to go into recession is the price of breaking inflation (breaking as in realisitcally driving it to 4-5% annualized), then so be it, doesn‘t help either. The Fed would be certainly in a more difficult position than it‘s in currently if the job market got weaker – having looked at the deceptively allegedly strong non-farm payrolls, something doesn‘t add up with the low figure of hours worked really. In short, this isn‘t yet time for any metals – on the Fed pause in hiking with September being the last one, brighter days are ahead to start the autumn in both precious metals and copper. Makes sense for the Fed to get tougher now, because getting tougher later would be much harder to execute. Crude oil has likely turned up from $93, but the upcoming upswing would be a labored one. For all the reasons given in today‘s rich chart commentaries, I‘m looking for the next upswing in commodities to be energy-driven. Finally cryptos are likely to modestly participate in the risk-on turn developing (it would positively affect both paper and real assets), before the bears reappear relatively shortly (again around 2 weeks, perhaps a bit less) again. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is powered to go higher next, and I‘m looking for 4,000 to be reached again. While tech isn‘t yet clearly outperforming, this is going to change – especially later in the second half of 2022. Credit Markets HYG upswing is likewise only starting – the bond reprieve is very welcome, and it would be a fresh downleg in bonds (with 10-year yield breaking 3.25%) that would make me concerned as regards the prospects of a good finish to 2022 throughout positive Q4. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t yet bottoming, the momentum has picked up since I last talked the sector, miners are down, and the miners to gold ratio hasn‘t yet turned. As the hawkish Fed turns neutral, a fresh upleg awaits. For now, leaner weeks are still ahead – the pain isn‘t over yet. Crude Oil Crude oil is turning the corner, and I‘m most optimistic about this part of the commodity sector. When the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) stops being dumped into the market, prices would return to the uptrend with more ease. Not looking yet for a sharp appreciation, for that (similarly to other real assets), the dollar has to top first – we‘re getting near, and I‘m looking for September to be that time of greenback rolling over. Copper Copper lived up to my expectations of being the weakest of the weak – still. The reversal isn‘t yet on the table, reflecting the troubled real economy outlook just ahead. Not yet the time to buy even though we‘re likely to drift slowly upwards from here, in tandem with stocks. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning up, and that provides a confirmation of the developing risk-on turn, with positive implications beyond Nasdaq and bond prices. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this endeavor possible! Thank you, Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading SignalsOil Trading SignalsCopper Trading SignalsBitcoin Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 might be getting a little ahead of itself in the very short-term – the price decline looks in need of some really brief consolidation. Bonds have likewise paused, and the retreat in Treasury yields that I told you about would happen first, is unfolding. The 10-year one closed below 3%, and with the focus slowly but surely to shift some more from inflation to the deteriorating real economy and job market, I‘m expecting yields to decline still (before turning up longer term again). The Fed hasn‘t yet pivoted – and for the next couple of sessions won‘t. - but the pressure on raising rates by much, is slowly receding Precious metals (and copper) don‘t like the retreat in inflation data (PCE deflator) and inflation expectations – coupled with the real economy prospects, these are to suffer, with gold being relatively, relatively most resilient (which wouldn‘t protect it from declining of course). Unlike crude oil where I remain of bullish persuasion when it comes to the two possible correction scenarios described earlier (the fight for $108.50 talked yesterday, is on). Yesterday, I got an interesting question on what actual value retail traders provide to the markets. If you‘re also wondering, have a look at my take in the first and second part of the reply – it‘ll resonate. In connection with the Nov 12, 2021 legal update on my homepage, the key main hearing is to continue shortly. Demanding event involving long travels – I’ll be issuing only brief updates for the nearest 5 trading days. I won’t be able to provide any analyses, updates or many Twitter activities between Jul 11-15. Looking forward for my return to serving you on Jul 18! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The caption says it all – S&P 500 is pausing somewhat, and looking for the next short-term direction – the lower knot I wrote above yesterday, materialized. Consolidation of the steep turn to the downside that I caught for you, is in order. Credit Markets Bonds are taking a break in the strong risk-off posture, and that‘s likely to coincide with the reprieve in stocks. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe caption says it all – S&P 500 is primed to decline some more, and unlike yesterday when I was looking for a little counter trend move first, today‘s expectations are of a day in red with insufficient buying into the close, creating a lower knot.Credit MarketsBonds are very risk-off, and the disconnect between quality debt instruments and junk bonds can be counted on to persist, even increase until stocks bottom.Gold and SilverPrecious metals haven‘t formed the bottom yet – miners keep acting weak, which is concerning. The prospects of two 75bp rate hikes are biting but if there‘s anything worth holding alongside paper and crypto shorts, it‘s namely gold and crude oil.Crude OilSetback for a couple of days, that‘s the most likely conclusion. Another upleg is on the way unless we break convincingly below $108.50 – the most optimistic scenario is that the bulls keep defending it.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 decisively turned around, and declined powerfully. The short entry was well placed, and open profits are likely to grow still before the bottom is reached. What we‘re likely to experience next, is tech-driven brief reprieve, which would help cushion heavy S&P 500 downside temporarily. The stock market downswing hasn‘t run its course though today‘s rising real asset prices would help the bulls temporarily.The dollar of course isn‘t really retreating, and neither the pressure on the Fed to raise, is relenting – yet precious metals keep holding up reasonably well. Is there a quiet money flow underway, one that sees long-dated Treasuries benefiting as well? I think so, and come autumn, this would become obvious. Crude oil apparently hasn‘t peaked either, no matter what those focusing solely on the real economy prospects say – remember, black gold is the one to top last, and I hadn‘t seen a decent spike yet. Time to go, for quite a few weeks more – and let the open profits grow too.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe caption says it all – S&P 500 is primed to decline some more, but I‘m looking for a little counter trend move first. Odds are the bulls won‘t make it far.Credit MarketsBonds turned risk-off, and soundly so. Especially the HYG move holds great promise. As you can see, the TLT downswing is in its latter innings, and in need of some consolidation (one that would coincide with deteriorating economic data showing so) first.Crude OilOil is turning up, the next consolidation to arrive, would happen above the 50-day moving average. I like oil stocks having come to life (against the background of steep stock market decline) particularly.Bitcoin and EthereumBusiness as usual in cryptos – business just as lately. See how far Stochastics has risen while prices are already turning down. The weeks ahead appear one hell of a ride.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 bull couldn‘t extend gains on Monday, and credit markets don‘t look too optimistic. One more hooray before the bears take over? That‘s my working hypothesis. Whatever gains right after the open the bulls manage to achieve, would likely be reversed relatively fast – perhaps even later this session. I don‘t think the consumer confidence data would paint an optimistic picture – a picture that the market would react optimistically to, said precisely. „Bad is the new good“- no, this mantra hasn‘t yet kicked in, and the dive to the yesterday discussed target, would take over. If you had been with me for quite a while already, you know that I was talking early July as my leading scenario for a stock market bottom. So far so good. Precious metals keep unsurprisingly going sideways, and commodities are having a good day today – the open oil positions are solidly in the black. Even copper is resilient on a daily basis, but I am not yet sounding the all clear – more economic slowdown and disinflationary currents are under way, no matter how much bringing the inflation down sounds are overhyped. Cryptos lackluster performance goes on, without much of a short-term chance of a turnaround on the horizon. As stated yesterday: (…) The big picture hasn‘t changed, and it‘s one of decreasing liquidity and the Fed being bound to surprise on the hawkish side down the road. That helps explain precious metals resilience (as always stating lately, that‘s gold and miners) while silver and especially copper bear the brunt of economic challenges. The red metals doesn‘t look to be done on the downside – contrasted with crude oil set to continue rising without much looking back, and natural gas having a very shallow, high priced and interesting summer „off season“ - wonder what‘s in store for the winter prices (up, up). Agrifoods are setting up a nice entry point with corn having turned already, and wheat about to do the same. Cryptos would continue struggling, of course – it‘s quite impossible to be bullish there. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Troubled spot for the S&P 500 bulls – time is running out, and the credit market support is weakening. Time for some quick window dressing. Credit Markets The low volume behind HYG downswing is the only thing to be „cheerful“ about. The bulls will be lucky if they don‘t get summarily rejected $75, which probably translates into the stock rally not having all that much time left. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening). Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines. The big picture hasn‘t changed, and it‘s one of decreasing liquidity and the Fed being bound to surprise on the hawkish side down the road. That helps explain precious metals resilience (as always stating lately, that‘s gold and miners) while silver and especially copper bear the brunt of economic challenges. The red metals doesn‘t look to be done on the downside – contrasted with crude oil set to continue rising without much looking back, and natural gas having a very shallow, high priced and interesting summer „off season“ - wonder what‘s in store for the winter prices (up, up). Agrifoods are setting up a nice entry point with corn having turned already, and wheat about to do the same. Cryptos would continue struggling, of course – it‘s quite impossible to be bullish there. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The upswing can, and will run on – given the pace, I‘m not looking for its overly fast reversal. The rally off the lows is though more than halfway through, and I‘m not looking at it to beat the 50-day moving average. Credit Markets Bonds turned risk-on, and in spite of the HYG intraday pullback, they have higher to run still. I‘m though looking for HYG to gradually stall, and start declining. TLT is for now merely reconciling the hawkish policy expectations with decreasing economic prospects. Crude Oil Oil is turning up, and has quite places to run still. Should it break $125 in the weeks ahead eventually, the road to $150 is open – all before significant demand destruction kicks in. The consumer has been really resilient when faced with $5 gas – the sentiment alone won‘t be able to sink this market just yet. Copper This isn‘t a bottom in my view, not yet – the red metal has further to decline, and is leading the commodity index to the downside, which doesn‘t speak of bright economic prospects. Again, this is a period of relative normalcy – the economic deterioration would take time to develop, and will be aided by the Fed‘s tightening heavily. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 overdue relief rally – flat, lacking significant momentum, not internally at its strongest – is here. Instead of projecting any healthy bear market rally targets (numbers around 10% are often thrown around), I‘m afraid that time it takes to ignite, would become a larger concern for the bulls. True, not enough have been sucked in, but buy the dip mentality is still there – we‘re now at a crossroads between either a very shallow reprieve protracted in time, or going more than a couple dozen points higher still. Just when the trap is ready, sellers would show up – the sentiment is still relatively bearish though – and that‘s an ally of today‘s bulls.Similarly to the precious metals, the risks of being out of the market outweigh those of being in. Just as I‘m not counting on a true slide in gold (or even silver, where the outlook is worse) no matter the miners‘ weakness, I think in stocks the rally would give way to a fresh downleg. Yesterday‘s 3,740s aren‘t a demonstration of convincing strength – liquidity keeps biting. I don‘t see the dollar as retreating much. Treasuries are lifting the pressure on the Fed to hike somewhat, but this reprieve looks to be temporary. The retreat in commodities isn‘t lighting up the fuse beneath value, and tech doesn‘t react to yields declining – something is amiss here, and would become apparent in the next 2%+ red day.Cryptos keep highlighting the woes – there is no tide to lift all boats anymore. Once the Fed repo facilities rush gets complemented by money market fund inflows, we‘re in for another tightening engine firing up. The incentive is there, the move not yet so – which could change as fast as inflation expectations becoming (having become) unanchored. Crude oil still doesn‘t have topped, and similarly to my recent copper turn, crude oil is panning out well.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStill the short-term possibility with room overhead, but it would be up to the internals to decide the upswing‘s fate. The 3,830s zone is getting tested, and bulls would likely close above it today.Credit MarketsBonds look tired, and the quality ones haven‘t risen nearly enough. This is so different from the prior bear market rally circumstances...Crude OilOil got too cheap, too fast – while there isn‘t enough (there isn‘t any) systemic deterioration in the real economy (or finance) to speak of just yet. Sellers are disappearing – and the tide is ready to turn.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Deterioration, that is – be it in S&P 500 market breadth or the jobs data. More to come, obviously, the disappearing liquidity is making itself felt broadly, and the real economy weakness hasn‘t yet arrived in earnest. This is still the environment of relatively fine but perceptibly slowing growth where technical recession can be declared as in, literally any moment (thanks to monetary tightening). Notably, we never escaped manufacturing recession in similar circumstances, and I had been clear on the hard landing realities recognition to spread like wildfire in the mainstream over the months to come. So far, no signs of systemic risk – but real estate and commodities are feeling the pinch seriously already. VIX is also trending higher rather continuously – the 25 level was indeed vigorously defended by the bears. That has all facilitated yesterday‘s sharp turn in my calls, namely in putting the spread trades to rest. Gold is treading patiently while cryptos can‘t obviously take off. Forces of short-term gravity are taking over.... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Promising upper knot, very promising. Maybe the 3,830s zone wouldn‘t be even tested – all that‘s needed, is for bonds to cooperate. And given the dollar showing today, it‘s perfectly imaginable. Credit Markets The much awaited turn in long-dated Treasuries higher, is here. That‘s where the engine of further recognition of darkening skies in stocks, would come from. HYG is slowly getting the message, and it would be great if it led to the downside now. Crude Oil Crude oil is pausing, making up its mind – the backdrop is richly described in the caption. Energy certainly holds better very short-term prospects than base metals or even some agrifoods. Copper Economically sensitive commodities are losing altitude, a bit too readily. That‘s a sign of more downside to come, and copper is arguably the best example thereof. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 rally didn‘t catch second breath before the closing bell, and bonds aren‘t favoring it to continue. There is no risk-on constellation anymore, and the broad selloff on growth slash recession worries, has driven both oil and copper down from their botom searching patterns. Treasuries are also demanding more action from the Fed, and the central bank would oblige. I expect Powell to downplay the effects on real economy. Not good, and the speed of recent price action – especially when the failure to gain similar traction to stocks in recent days – is considered. Precious metals are to keep up best, and I mean gold and miners here. Cryptos and economically sensitive commodities are to remain under pressure, and the failure of oil to put in a floor yesterday, is worrying. Gotta respect the price action even though black gold hasn‘t peaked, and a much bigger crisis is brewing – one not to be solved with some gas tax holidays.For the full macro details, please check yesterday‘s extensive analysis if you haven‘t done so already.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookToday‘s closing prices would reveal sharp and ongoing deterioration. The reprieve is over after a few measly days.Credit MarketsSetting the tone, setting the tone – and it‘s one of shrinking liquidity – but the turn in long-dated Treasuries higher, is approaching. It‘ll be in recognition of darkening economic prospects.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals sector would hold up best, gold with miners look cushioned against further declines. Namely given the following charts‘ posture.Crude OilCrude oil had the hallmarks of a local bottom, and given that it‘s not holding in today‘s trading, the Powell testimony is likely to add to the short-term pressure regardless of China being hungry for more black gold.CopperFor many weeks, I had the greatest reservations about copper, and its chart posture has turned ugly. I don‘t see the Fed pivoting yet, or markets moderating their downswings in anticipation thereof.Bitcoin and EthereumThis bottom searching isn‘t over, and cryptos are likely to keep declining, which has been in line with one of my calls of late.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth. I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come. Home prices would decline, consumer discretionaries, tech and communications would suffer. Even materials did this week. The only question is when would the Fed back off tightening – given that the very temporary peak in inflation with May data didn‘t happen, the central bank can be counted on being restrictive for good four next meetings. While that wouldn‘t break inflation to the almost forgotten 2% target obviously, the result would be its decrease to 5% or slightly less if they stay the course, which would be accompanied counterintuitively by lower yields (yes, I‘m looking for quality debt instruments to turn up, which would be analogical to what we saw after peaking yields of 2007). Yes, supply chain issues will persist well into 2023, and China would come back online. When it comes to currencies, the euro and yen would feel most heat – especially in Europe as a sign of recession approaching faster than in the U.S., the local stock markets are trading at considerably lesser multiples of forward looking earnings, and also the bond spreads between Germany and countries such as Italy are widening. In the U.S., the skies aren‘t getting too cloudy yet. So, in this period of uncertainty – uncertainty driven by the Fed‘s tightening and the still growing balance at its repo facilities – the task is to prosper both in the disinflation to come, and in the recession approaching. One way to do that would be betting on the dollar, long-dated Treasuries, being still in commodities, and having exposure only to select stocks (namely energy and agricultural stocks). Even though base metals (that‘s copper, aluminum etc) are and will be suffering, precious metals are likely to keep well bid, and then start rising again. Crude oil hasn‘t yet topped either – the dust after Friday‘s steep selloff would settle as I don‘t see either demand declining or supply rising this year – we aren‘t in a manufacturing recession yet (that would come towards the end of 2022). Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks: crude oil: and copper: Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

While there are holidays today, I wanted to present you with a preview of tomorrow‘s extensive analysis – as regards stocks and the conomy:(…) S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth.I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come. On Tuesday, I‘ll cover the ways to play it – which assets are to remain under pressure and which would still rise. So far, this is the model $50K portfolio measuring my market calls‘ efficiency (closed trades, no fees, no taxes). Weekend trading continues in cryptos, and the charts (courtesy of Stockcharts.com) are now offering more than a glimmer of short-term hope.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 likely put in a short-term bottom, and the fresh long position is profitable from the get-go. Bonds offered the first promising signs, and so far only value has acted upon it – that provides more fuel to the upcoming relief rally. TLT performance was good, but seeing even higher volume would be more convincing regarding the rally‘s longevity. Especially since the dollar is rising again – the yen carry trade can go on. Even cryptos are having a good day today so far, meaning we have a bit more to run still.That bodes well for real assets too – both gold and silver caught a solid bid yesterday, and GDX lagging behind is balanced out by NEM outperforming. The precious metals skies are slowly brightening, and not even another 75bp hike looks being able to sink them. Deteriorating real economy data would underpin them more so than crude oil. All the demand destruction isn‘t yet in, and black gold would adjust to the arriving economy growth softpatch – but we haven‘t seen the spike yet. Anyway, it‘s worthwhile to tread cautiously with the whole portfolio because the tightening phase, the pressure on the Fed isn‘t relenting all that much. The greater shock would come from having to adjust the still overly rosy economic growth projections to the downside over the nearest months. That‘s keeping a lid on copper and base metals, which would have a chance of turning around only after gold truly obviously to everyone does.Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:bonds:and crude oil:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 recovered in the wake of soothing Powell conference but his words are being doubted. Inflation expectations aren‘t taking a dive on 75bp hike – catching this runaway horse now would be harder than a year ago. Financials, real estate and homebuilders are to feel the pinch increasingly more – a nice indication of the tough winds comes from lumber, which has halved in 2022. It‘s little comforting that junk corporate bonds aren‘t outdoing stocks on the downside relatively speaking – the credit default swaps on stocks I told you about weeks ago, both are and have caught up with stock prices, with the next pressure to come from earnings. The vocal denials that the economy isn‘t entering recession, kind of confirm tougher sailing ahead.And the next 50 or 75bp hike is to solve that, seriously? I have stated that once 3.25% is pierced on the 10-year Treasury, things can start moving fast – and bond yields have quite some bearing on stock prices. For now, the economic growth worriess haven‘t yet kicked in – the markets aren‘t yet even thinking about thinking (to paraphrase last year‘s famous words) frontronning the Fed‘s dovish turn. It‘s getting serious out there, and the crypto fate illustrates that amply. Copper is searching for a double bottom while precious metals are still sideways. Given the largest hike in decades, that‘s promising medium-term. Crude oil is taking it on the chin as well – sign of consolidation, which will be worthwhile buying in its own time. For now, all the tightening hasn‘t resulted yet in significant demand destruction. Good to have taken oil profits off the table at $122 – together with stocks, this has helped to push the model $50K portfolio of early 2021 over $300K (minus costs of trading and taxes).Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:and precious metals:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 is gyrating with the the Fed rate hike speculation – 50 or 75bp? Treasuries are still demanding a higher one now and more later as inflation hasn‘t even temporarily slowed down. But there was a moderate risk-on turn in bonds, which looks like facilitating the pause within the stock market decline on the FOMC today, meaning we could see a little bounce, which would be reasonable to sell into on its exhaustion (with a tight stop loss unless I change the rough game plan for the intraday traders reading). Things sure start with locking in sizable open short profits.Precious metals had a bad day yesterday, and together with copper were indeed short-term bearish, but just one Fed meeting would be enough for an intraday reversal (when they announce backing off tightening, float more than gentle focus on supporting real economy growth, or voice concerns about the job market health). Even with their models, this would become obvious just in time for autumn – it must be said though that the current tightening (and markets frontrunning that especially) is helping to dent commodities, with metals suffering the most. Crude oil looks to be ranging, and a good stop-loss protected open profits yesterday. If you haven‘t already, please check more on my style and philosophy so as to make the most of the daily analyses.Overall, I‘m looking for a little risk-on reprieve – an upswing attempt unless the Fed turns up with really hawkish messaging that at least meets market expectations. Odds are they would approach meeting these, and how convincing is going to be the message and the delivery, will influence market reaction – I‘m not looking for a bullish stunner today, but for a corrective move that goes sideways to a somewhat upwards. That would concern both paper and real assets, together with cryptos (to a lesser degree) in spite of all the Binance issues indicating that much is happening under the surface there.Finally, remember that no matter how much tightening, markets are forward looking – and those beaten down real assets would just at some point start ignoring higher yields. Even before the Fed telegraphs anything...Let‘s get into the key richly annotated charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:and cryptos:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 selloff came – a juicy and profitable one. Bond market posture continues being negative, with no intraday comeback sticking. The pressure on the Fed is raised to the degree of 75bp hike expectation this week – the Fed would have to get more aggressive alongside other central banks if it wants to get some chance at taming inflation. It was precisely this market demand that caused the dollar to rise sharply yesterday as well. At this time, with so many gaps on sharply rising volume, both tech and value are taken to the cleaners – and neither finance nor real estate enjoy that bearish trend. What I‘ve talked about in recent weeks and months, is unfolding in a fastforward way.The temporary capitulation can come on the Fed – while I don‘t expect Powell to sugarcoat anything (and I look for him to rather talk a tough inflation game than offer real economy support), the heavy selling is likely to pause. Even precious metals got caught up, and couldn‘t keep up the promising daily outperformance of Friday – this is what happens when everything gets sold indiscriminately, including commodities. Copper with silver are to suffer the most in the current, squeezed hard, environment – reflecting the real economy deterioration and vigorous mainstream denials of an approaching recession...Let‘s get into the key richly annotated charts for today – precious metals:and copper:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 didn‘t regain any footing at all – the CPI casting verdict on even very temporary notion of inflation peak, was strong in its implications for it increases the pressure on the Fed to do more. Not something, but more – more rate raising. Now, we have talk of 75bp rate hike emerging, and not even a series of hitherto unimaginable hikes would do the job of breaking (practically speaking) double digit inflation. The window of opportunity for the Fed to act before it needs to turn around and support the real economy, is narrowing – little has changed since last week‘s key analysis. And Treasuries keep demanding more, risking that the Fed‘s turn would not come when manufacturing growth reaches stall speed, but when it‘s already negative.That would mean recession, possibly more than mere two quarterly GDP prints going negative. Another obvious consequence would be for the stock market bottom timing – the longer a series of meaningful rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking the Fed is forced into, the more liquidity disappears, and I would be presenting pockets of relative strength within a declining financial universe only. Yes, not even commodities would escape unscathed – they are usually last to peak. And that‘s what we‘re seeing now – crude oil has still quite a few weeks and more than a couple of dollars higher to run. I hope you enjoyed the great profits in black gold – portfolio chart performance is at new highs with the model $50K account after 16 months standing at over $260K – see my homepage. And open short profits in the stock market keep growing.Friday also brought precious metals outperformance – decoupling on a daily basis as the confidence in the Fed gets questioned. Miners were up on a strong volume – the cracks in the dam are appearing, and precious metals are to benefit. Gold especially as both silver and then copper are to be lagging due to souring real economy prospects. Just have a look at central banks lately – Australia, India raising above expectations, ECB also to start its taper. The coming Fed actions would destroy a lot of demand, seeking to get inflation under control eventually – and these risk a recession, narrowing U.S. trade deficit says already. Besides the stock market woes being not over (the downswing is likely to continue as volume doesn‘t indicate bottom in place in the least), let me present three richly annotated real asset charts to illustrate where we are at the moment – precious metals:crude oil:and copper:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 took decisively to the downside late yesterday, and credit markets followed. No risk-on positioning, but selling across the board broadly translating into stock market weakness. Great for the bears, let the open profits grow. How about today‘s CPI – would the reasonably hot data be viewed as an opprotunity to buy? Very counterintuitive but the dip buyers also appeared right after yesterday‘s open. My primary scenario remains that any buying would fizzle out as we have lower lows to make still in this downswing – nothing against bear market rallies, but we‘re too early on in the tightening, and there is still much focus on inflation as opposed on the increasing real aconomy pain when manufacturing growth can grind to a standstill over the next few months easily. The tough headwinds in positioning for today, can be seen in precious metals and cryptos – setbacks in both as the market pressure on the Fed to raise, goes on. Even the ECB indicated that it‘s a journey beyond July – big words from eurozone on sunsetting negative interest rates. Coupled with crude oil resilience around $122, the odds continue favoring stock market bears. Before wishing you a great weekend, two charts to illustrate that amply - stocks: and bonds: Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 declined, within the existing narrow range, but more downside is likely to come. Bonds continue pointing lower, commodities are squeezing, yields aren‘t meaningfully retreating, and inflation keeps biting. As stated yesterday: (…) So, stocks are still facing the tightening Fed phase, not yet smelling the Fed pivot – the downside can reach further still, and the new battle for 4,080 is approaching. Odds are we would head that way before mid-session tomorrow – today, I‘m looking for a lackluster, paring the gains, session in stocks. And that holds true for precious metals as well – Monday‘s decline was duly reversed, and copper is carving out a local bottom as we speak. Crude oil is of course offering only shallow corrections, and didn‘t make it much below $117.50. Energy keeps running, and it ain‘t over by a long shot – when it comes to time though, I‘m looking for the rally to last a few short months more before taking even greater toll toll on the real economy, and starting to decline somewhat. Cryptos are refusing to decline much, and that illustrates the current balance of power nicely – larger moves are unlikely. Friday‘s CPI awaits, and it would likely show limited Fed room to back off tightening – Treasuries aren‘t waiting, and keep requesting more rate hikes. The daily price action between different maturities illustrates the building strains. In this environment, sticking with real assets while favoring the short side in stock indices, is the reasonable positioning. The point of today‘s analysis is to assess the shape markets are in right at the ECB forestaste of dealing with inflation – distinguishing the verbal and real moves, and market sensitivities. Plainly stated, how much these doubt the newfound inflation fighting spirit in the face of deteriorating economic data... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are readying another charge – odds are the current price congestion would resolve to the downside. Too much underperformance in the high beta plays. Credit Markets This isn‘t a risk-on turn, there is still some bottom searching to be done. Tightening, that‘s still the name of the game – not enough worries about growth prospects yet. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still sideways, waiting for a catalyst to start looming. Countdown is on, and the risks of being out of the market outweigh those of being in. Crude Oil Crude oil keeps moving higher, and it‘s little surprising. Still no peak – I‘m looking for the climb to continue in a relatively narrow range where dips are to be bought. Copper Copper is also lagging, but at least the panic selling is over – with more focus on the monetary turn ahead and stockpile dynamics, the red metal would start recovering, gradually first. Lean times ahead for now. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t convincing in the least – that‘s another market in trouble. Biting global liquidity – the bottom isn‘t yet in. Summary S&P 500 is likely to get weaker as increasingly dull economic and monetary data keep arriving. The coming 4,080 break to the downside would be just the start – the path of getting there remains slow, but the direction is clear, bonds say. Semiconductors, smallcaps, financials, you name it – these shouldn‘t underperform in a bull upleg. And that means we aren‘t in one (my words continuously) – the bottom hasn‘t yet been reached, and the relative lull (bear market rally) is in its latter innings. As commodities continue surging, crude oil is leading – stocks can‘t meaningfully bottom without oil rolling over first. Not happening now or in the weeks ahead – precious metals and copper are waiting patiently for their turn to shine. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 recovered opening setback fast, and daily volume slightly increased. Bonds though didn‘t follow in the enthusiasm nearly as much – the short-term stock market balance is tight, but I expect the bears to show their upper hand in the run up to tomorrow‘s ECB moves. Even the eurozone (some might say especially the eurozone) has to join in to some degree in the tightening – the Yellen admissions of getting the transitory inflation wrong, are impossible to miss. If you had known me since time immemorial, you had been ready as I covered this first in mid 2020, calling for inflation to be persistent and running. So, stocks are still facing the tightening Fed phase, not yet smelling the Fed pivot – the downside can reach further still, and the new battle for 4,080 is approaching. Odds are we would head that way before mid-session tomorrow – today, I‘m looking for a lackluster, paring the gains, session in stocks. And that holds true for precious metals as well – Monday‘s decline was duly reversed, and copper is carving out a local bottom as we speak. Crude oil is of course offering only shallow corrections, and didn‘t make it much below $117.50. Energy keeps running, and it ain‘t over by a long shot – when it comes to time though, I‘m looking for the rally to last a few short months more before taking even greater toll toll on the real economy, and starting to decline somewhat. Cryptos are refusing to decline much, and that illustrates the current balance of power nicely – larger moves are unlikely. Friday‘s CPI awaits, and it would likely show limited Fed room to back off tightening – Treasuries aren‘t waiting, and keep requesting more rate hikes. The daily price action between different maturities illustrates the building strains. In this environment, sticking with real assets while favoring the short side in stock indices, is the reasonable positioning. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 reversed right on the waiting entry order, and open short profits can be expected to grow. The Sunday warning about bonds is turning out prescient – the pause in bond yields didn‘t last long, inflation expectations are untamed, and the pressure on the Fed to keep tightening, is on. By the tech and value candles‘ shape, trouble is brewing – the next downleg is ready to unfold, probably earlier than Thursday‘s ECB press conference. Not that I would be looking for long-lasting and demonstrably credible hawkish turn, but for attempts to jawbone the rising yield differentials on the eurozone periphery. Friday‘s CPI data though can be counted on to deliver a catalyst – the medium-term downtrend in stocks is well established.Precious metals are providing a short-term conflicting view – gold and miners down while silver went up. That‘s daily white noise in my view, and we can look for a stronger day in the yellow metal today (to make up for yesterday‘s poorer showing). Well, the dollar and yields rose, but gold is holding in a nice consolidation, well bid and ready to launch higher at moment‘s notice.Copper is still retracing Thursday‘s sharp upswing as the sellers‘ power is waning – sideways consolidation would come next, giving way to a directional move. Depending upon the straits of the real economy and Fed moves anticipation, its path would be decided, and odds are it would lead slowly higher. Crude oil hasn‘t yet peaked by a long shot, and that‘s reflecting upon the stock market and other commodities‘ path, meaning that the short-term downside in the red metal won‘t be meaningful. Remember that not enough oil demand has been destroyed – the sad truth is that this is what ultimately breaks inflation, not the measured staircase Fed moves (behind the curve and market expectations).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 looks set to open on a relatively strong note, and the unbeaten resistance is approaching again. 4,180 or a tad above, is where the bears are. Crude oil and precious metals are improving today, and the retracement in copper would likewise be duly reversed, even if not today. The crypto upswing would likewise give way to further selling, but hasn‘t yet run the course.As I wrote in yesterday‘s extensive analysis – with all the accompanying charts:(…) S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.The key dilemma facing the Fed – would inflation slow down enough to support propping up the real economy again? Or would they need to keep tightening as (in the larger scheme of things) inflation would be barely dented by September? Stocks are watching with a bearish bias - earnings are to be hit.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.The key dilemma facing the Fed – would inflation slow down enough to support propping up the real economy again? Or would they need to keep tightening as (in the larger scheme of things) inflation would be barely dented by September? Stocks are watching with a bearish bias - earnings are to be hit.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.