Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial markets analyst. Checking dozens of charts daily, she integrates their messages with economics and in-depth experience. Trade calls and writing are her cup of tea as much as studies in market histories. Having been at the financial markets when the Great Recession arrived, she experienced many bull and bear markets - be it in stocks, bonds, gold and silver. Check her out at https://www.monicakingsley.co

Big Week Ahead

Big Week Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.01.2023 16:00
S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell.The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next week!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls will have to defend yesterday‘s initiative - 4,040 is the first line of support, followed by (high) 4,010s. Any downswing attempt is though likely to be confined to the roughly mid point of this two strong supports‘ range. I don‘t think 4,075 would be overcome today.Credit MarketsBonds give me a pause – we‘re likely to see stocks play defence first, especially on another housing data release (disappointment).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
The outlook for P&G could improve even if this week's results, when it is expected to report its first year-on-year drop in sales since 2017 and the second consecutive quarter of lower earnings, could be rough

No Rocking the Boat

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2023 15:51
S&P 500 defended my 3,955 level by stopping full 10 pts above it, and turning up swiftly. The rise was accompanied by good breadth, and ducks lined in a row when it comes to former laggards (tech), high betas incl. financials and just broadly speaking value stocks, and smallcaps with the dollar remaining tame. Bonds also didn‘t present any red flags. And with TSLA earnings really good yesterday, then GDP not decelerating nearly as fast enough as anticipated, PCE prices advancing and GDP deflator coming above expectations, the table is set for the Fed to miss a good tightening opportunity next week as durable goods data also attests to (which the markets would just love to see short-term) – compare against the following summary dating back to before today‘s data batch became available. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 moved out of the hot water, and the bear market rally can continue. 4,040 is to get in rear view mirror on today‘s close, and I would be eyeing the 4,080 – 4,085 area as the nearest solid resistance target (ultimately followed by my 4,130 of September CPI fame). Credit Markets No warning signs here, and the still reasonably fine real economy data of today, should help bonds to clinch a risk-on close. HYG is to outperform TLT today – and the most sensitive real assets will like it! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
More Defence

More Defence

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.01.2023 16:06
S&P 500 barely managed to close where it did the day before, and decreasing volume points at little short-term willingness to push prices up. MSFT earnings didn‘t help either, and we‘re set up for more of what I warned you about yesterday – the bulls need to play good defence now.4,010 didn‘t hold, and today‘s battle lines are to be drawn around 3,990. After that, 3,955 comes into play as more serious support with better odds of holding up on a closing basis.What we‘re seeing, is dialing back of the excessive soft landing, Fed pivot, Fed pause (whatever you call it) sentiment – the positioning for next week‘s FOMC with 25bp hike and no change in balance sheet shrinking and more hikes ahead reiteration, goes on. Buy the rumor, sell the news – and this rally of laggards (tech, crypto) is going to notice. It‘s happening already – and they say that markets are efficient, see my take.At the same time, the countdown to recession continues as money supply (M2) is flashing red yet the easy financial conditions index of Chicago Fed doesn‘t reflect that yet. Especially the Europe avoiding recession miracle is going to get proper scrutiny in the months ahead. It‘ll take time to burn through this complacency – stocks haven‘t topped out yet…Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals paint a picture of short-term caution, and I mean the pre-FOMC positioning and reaction to no Fed pivot especially. Buying opportunity ahead for those who missed the boat.Crude OilCrude oil is to put in a higher low – and keep ever so slowly recovering. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Slow But Not Slow

Slow But Not Slow

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.01.2023 16:00
S&P 500 bulls need to play good defence now as 4,040 predictably stopped the rally yesterday. The retreat in junk corporate bonds with cyclicals should give the buyers some pause. And as clear risk-off is unlikely to strike today (earnings aren‘t as strong a catalyst to trigger that, and UK figures didn‘t have that power either), we can look forward for both TLT to remain well bid, and tech not totally mirroring its daily strength.It‘s about the soft landing, and its odds to be dialed back somewhat next – before the hype returns for next week‘s FOMC. For S&P 500 that means a lean day today of quite some chop with 3,990 and 3,955 levels being key. As stated in yesterday‘s extensive analysis:(…) Good luck with earnings projections and valuations – and don‘t forget about those two rate cuts priced in for late 2023.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 and 4,010s – that‘s what the buyers are eyeing (to close comfortably above). While today is no true Turnaround Tuesday, we‘re looking at sellers to be having the daily initiative.Credit MarketsBonds are in for a lackluster session, and merely defending current levels with price increases on the long end, would be a success. And constructive for the stock market.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Smelling Fine Opportunity

Smelling Fine Opportunity

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.01.2023 10:29
S&P 500 buers had a good Friday, and market breadth confirms that beond cyclicals leading over defensives. Even if bonds are relatively cautious, there is still more juice in this bear market rally left – I continue leaning bullish, clearly bullish. The dollar isn‘t going anywhere, has been my memorable call almost two weeks ago before the BoJ not yielding an inch move – the dollar relief rally isn‘t yet here, and more downside looms.This already had powerful consequences for real assets – neither precious metals, nor copper corrected much, and crude oil is on a slow but firm upswing too. Circling to China and its role in the world economy, the reopening has put a fine floor beneath even as the Fed continues tightening and foreign central banks such ECB promise to quicken their pace. Fed pivot? Not even a Fed pause – only a slowdown in pace of rate increases while balance sheet shrinking remains on a preset trajectory. None of this bodes well for the financial conditions that have become overly easy with the soft landing hopes. True, unless the pace of layoffs quickens (more news beyond AMZN or MSFT), the soft landing odds went up, which has consequences for inflation, especially services inflation. And the Fed won‘t like that, and will reevaluate what‘s the restrictive Fed funds rate level accordingly – if they insist, then even 5.50% can get too low for Kashkari.Good luck with earnings projections and valuations – and don‘t forget about those two rate cuts priced in for late 2023.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersGold with silver are to do well, front running first the dollar and then also yields. Miners are confirming, and no deep correction is ahead. Back and forth with an upward bias.Crude OilCrude oil is gathering strength for upswing continuation - $85 is the next upper target, followed by the tougher $88 area. Oil stocks support the move, but it‘s the $91 - $93 area (to give in by late spring) that would be key to return of bullish spirits.CopperShallow pullbacks in copper are still being bought, and base metals together with precious metals, would be the stars of 2023. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Bulls Waking Up

Bulls Waking Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.01.2023 16:01
Some S&P 500 buying emerged finally, and not even NFLX earnings ushered in a significant move either way. This summary of four key ES_F levels for today, holds true – I‘m not expecting a sizable move in stocks on this options expiry Friday - that would happen next week and especially as we approach Jan FOMC with the newly even more favored 25bp over 50bp as per futures markets.Make no mistake though, the headwinds are to intensify as the recessionary pressures grow in intensity in the months ahead. See earnings and profit margins in the context of strong job market and commodities pricing (especially oil). I stand by my call that the Fed would have to tighten into the 5.50% Fed funds rate area as per its model, as they redefine what‘s a restrictive level.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersSimilarly to coppper holding up well, so do precious metals. Quoting my yesterday‘s words – „The upper knots may look intimidating, but gold is likely to hold up relatively well.“ And so it did and does, including the call that no silver decline below $22.60 seems to be imminent.Crude OilCrude oil keeps fighting around $81 – and doing well there. Modest appreciation expected next - $88 area will be a tough nut to crack.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Changing Bias

Changing Bias

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.01.2023 16:03
S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are receding, and recession prospects come to the fore, which was the subject of Tuesday‘s extensive analysis. The turn in sentiment was fast, however our long S&P 500 and copper gains were protected by tightened stop-losses, taking the model portfolio significantly higher - .above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (check my homepage for descriptions - no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results). That‘s the proper long-term view with odds heavily in your favor through diligent analytics! Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 has the nearest support at 3,895, and on the upside 3,915 can give the buyers some chance to think about retracement. The character of the market is slowly changing as 200-d moving average was rejected. Again, and the same goes if you‘re in favor of looking for a declining line connecting recent tops. Credit Markets Bonds aren‘t supportive of any steep rally – it‘s flight to safety of Treasuries as economic prospects deteriorate. No animal spirits at the moment really. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
More Hopium

More Hopium

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.01.2023 16:07
Both S&P 500 and real assets welcomed the BoJ not giving ground, which translates into more money creation in defence of JGB yields, with USD consequences (no relief rally just yet, no). Likewise the incoming data didn‘t send risk assets cratering. Markets want to believe that this disappointments (interpreted in the tweet I linked to), make Fed pivot closer. That‘s a miscalculation – reckoning awaits, and it will take time to arrive.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is likely to continue attempting to take on 4,040, which can succeed only after 4,010 becomes a solid support. We aren‘t there yet, but the trend is still up – no top has been made. 3,980 is still first support.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Tail Risks Emerging

Tail Risks Emerging

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.01.2023 15:48
S&P 500 continued higher Friday as consumer confidence data didn‘t disappoint – adding to soft landing hopes. Soft landing would though only happen should the unemployment claims don‘t rise too much – on the flip side, that would mean that service inflation would remain high, which is exactly what we have seen so far. It‘s a double edged sword, this tight job market – and it will remain tight. Just have a look at unemployment ratio to job openings – it‘s not really declining, and the Fed wants to see it decline, just like latest job creation is more than double the Fed‘s preferred less that 100K monthly.So when would the troubles strike, based on what the Fed is doing? I look for continued balance sheet shrinking, and while the hikes favor 25bp for Jan FOMC, it‘s far from a done deal. 50bp is still very much an option (underappreciated by the markets), but I acknowledge it‘s slightly less probable than 25bp. Anyway, it takes up to 12 months for rate hike effects to play out in the economy, and we have seen one of the steepest hiking paths last year – one that can be compared to mid 1990s (the last time of a soft landing, by the way).Followed by 25bp more in Mar, we would have Fed funds rate at 5%, but Kashkari wants to go higher, almost to 5.50% - and should headline and especially core inflation remain sticky (these won‘t please the Fed in the months ahead), the central bank would seek to redefine its level of restrictive FFR regardless of the 2y yield telling the Fed for weeks it‘s done tightening, otherwise things in the real economy start to break.Forget for a moment about Japanese yields rising, third day in a row above the 0.50% threshold the BoJ deems permissible. Appreciating JPY as the yen carry trade is unwound, which is resulting in rising Treasury yields (parking the money in risk-free U.S. government bonds was the go-to proposition of those borrowing in yen). Brings in mind the Swiss frank peg, and we know how that ended.And indeed thing are all on a solid track of breaking – let‘s isolate earnings and the pace of recent surprises. If these continue as before, we are looking at a neutral or negative earnings growth quarter, but greater troubles would strike in Q2 earnings season, because the Fed in my view wouldn‘t be able to avoid doing no more rate hikes, and I am not even bringing up the market hopes of two rate cuts late 2023 that the Fed is adamantly ruling out, and I agree as it in my view wouldn‘t cut.It‘s aware that inflation has to be defeated, and inflation expectation must return lower – including household ones, and by extension nominal wage growth. After having cut the temps and overtime hours, things will get serious in the job market, with quickening pace of layoffs once the unemployment rate increases over 4%. Not even poor manufacturing, services or real estate data would convince the Fed. As for the recent bank earnings (more to come this week, together with $PG and $AA), see rising loan loss reserves. Couples nicely with tightened bank lending standards. Add the soon to be 10 months in a row of negative LEIs, and the two yield curve inversions (levels unseen in decades)– and you can bet your bottom dollar on recession arriving around mid year, which is when the going would get considerably rougher.We ain‘t seen nothing yet. If in doubt, check shipping rates - $BDI below Aug lows while U.S. domestic transport remains more resilient – the troubles haven‘t yet hit the shores, but are amply seen in leading indicators.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is likely to spend more time around the 200-d moving average. 3,980 is first support, followed by 3,955. Conversely 4,010 and 4,040 await on the upside as the tug of war is going on. The timing of USD relief rally will though tip the scales one way...Credit MarketsBonds look to be in need of a breather, but aren‘t done retreating. The jitters are understandable given the BoJ uncertainty – won‘t it disappoint in setting the new 10-y permissible rate? The risks are skewed towards risk-off, broadly speaking.CopperCopper is worth watching here for general risk-on sentiment – the red metal would (and should) stumble without recovering into $4.15 on troubles hitting and spreading to other assets in the very short run.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Hawks and Surprises

Hawks and Surprises

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.01.2023 15:56
S&P 500 didn‘t like CPI coming in line with expectations, and it was indeed „buy the rumor sell the news“ reaction, followed by cutting into 4,010 on confirming bond and dollar price action. No fresh fuel though making for a larger reaction.And today we have some telling bank earnings, facilitating the approach to 3,955 – and University of Michigan consumer confidence data which wouldn‘t prove any huge disappointment. Just around the expected figure, making for an uneventful session Friday, with the only two daily questions being whether the buyers can reconquer 3,980, and whether the sellers can push below 3,955 closer to 3,910 or at least midpoint.Remember, the Fed is hawkish and will remain hawkish, and the rally is running on borrowed timeKeep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookGiven the banking earnings aftermath, the key „point of control“ at 3,955 has to hold so as to prevent levels mentioned in the opening part of today‘s analysis. Close above 3,980 would be ideal for the bulls, but unless 4,010 is cleared, stocks remain in a precarious zone, and vulnerable to swift reversals at the 200-d MA.CopperCopper consolidation mentioned yesterday, looks to be starting. Risk-on consequences, so watch out.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Dialing Back Fears

Dialing Back Fears

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.01.2023 15:53
S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!As for today, 3,955 is the name of the game.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookLet‘s go – or better said – try to go higher, provided that outside markets and stock internals support that. We can make it above 3,955 to gradually approach 3,980 as the next objective, but it won‘t be a disaster if 3,955 holds on a closing basis.Credit MarketsBonds aren‘t throwing in the towel, and especially the TLT decline is inordinate. TLT and TLH would just dial that back during today.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Less Tightening Win

Less Tightening Win

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.01.2023 16:02
That‘s what S&P 500 needs – and with my patient call of the upside resolution to the recent range being more probable. For all the excitement of making another great call, don‘t lose the big picture view.The not overly hot jobs figure allows for the Jan top to be made, with the first objective to be completed, being the upside break of 3,875. Note how well silver, copper, gold and oil are doing in the NFPs aftermath. I‘ll keep commenting the live price action on Twitter as:(…) The narrow window of opportunity to allow the market celebrate CPI while PPI continues raising its ugly head, is at hand.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook3,875 is likely to give today, and 3,895 – 3,910 zone awaits for Monday. Yes, be patient because stocks are running with a Fed tightening misperception – the central bank isn‘t backing off.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver will again rise from here, it‘s a matter of very short time till $23.80 goes in the rear view mirror. Note also my yesterday‘s tweets about fine reversals in GDX and SIL.Crude OilCrude oil, this laggard of 2023, is hesitantly starting to move as well, but don‘t expect miracles too soon or too fast. Still worth holding here for more upside though. As 2022 was the year of energy, and 2023 would belong to metals and agrifoods.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Turnaround Tuesday

Turnaround Tuesday

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.12.2022 16:49
S&P 500 was slated to rise either during yesterday, or today, as the discussed barrage of tightening and worsening real economy news drove asset prices inordinately lower on Friday too. Monday‘s feeble upswing wasn‘t restored after the open, and steady deterioration breaking through 3,850 opened the gates to 3,815 and potentially 3,780s then. Japanese jitters didn‘t help.Today‘s picture is shaping up brighter even as stocks languish close to the unchanged mark. The European session has gone well. The ingredients for an upside surprise driven by unyielding crude oil, and sharply rebounding silver (followed a bit too tamely by copper) while gold is looking fine on a daily basis, bode well for stocks today and later this week (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). If you want to play this short-term rebound, make sure you don‘t overstay the welcome, and lock in open profits via frequently updated trailing stop-losses.Keep in mind the bigger picture till the year end. Very much looking forward for returning to the usual frequency, scope and presence as of Jan 02, 2023! Thank you for your patience, and have blessed days ahead!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Sense of Reality

Sense of Reality

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.12.2022 07:42
S&P 500 finished Friday on a weak note – gloomy string of tightening news from around the world, disappointing the markets and dialing back risk sentiment considerably. Coupled with the real economy hits – retreating LEIs, retail sales starting in my view a subdued period, manufacturing and housing in full retreat mode, and layoffs rising. There have been even reports from Philadelphia Fed to the effect of NFPs data projecting a false picture of strength – yes, the differential between Establishment and Household surveys continues to widen, now standing at 2.7 million jobs (Nov 2022), be it thanks to full time, part time or multiple job holders, or the birth-death model. For all the labor market tightness, and the categories seeing gains (sectorally not representing a picture of strength, but rather teetering on the brink of recession), the Fed is in my view relying on a deceptive picture of strength in the job market when the opposite is slowly becoming the truth,You can liken it to the tightening effects, where I come in the 12 months time frame to see them play out rather than 6 only. And if you look at where the 2-year yield is, and where the Fed funds rate is, the message is clear – things are starting to break in the real economy, and the Fed would better wait and see here. Instead, we‘re likely to get 25bp Jan and Mar hikes, taking the Fed funds rate to 5.00% - and the Fed thinks about a restrictive territory of 5.50% later in 2023, provided that (household) inflation expectations are cooperating. The focus is to avoid the 1970s mistake of letting inflation expectations become unanchored... while looking at the lagging indicator of CPI and its core as well.And so are thinking other key central banks – ECB, BoE and SNB – not just hiking rates, but continuing shrinking the balance sheet. All done at the same time when the Treasury needs to step up debt issuance in Q1 2023, contributing to mopping up liquidity from the system. Are banks likely to withdraw reserves held at the Fed and deploy in the real economy (credit multiplier aka making money go round through the fractional reserve system multiplier) when the evidence of slowdown as kicking in (NBER has already ruled that those two negative quarters earlier in 2022, aren‘t a recession, and the Q3 figure was indeed good), dragging down earnings estimates and outlook?Who‘s going to buy the fresh debt when reliable foreigners are withdrawing the bid, too? Squeezed profit margins are to reflect on P/E multiples – and we‘re back at the many disconnects in the labor market.Even credit markets tell the same story – and the rally or at least stabilization in bonds would have been a necessary ingredient of this Q4 bear market rally as much as that of the summer one – the U.S. was leading the world for German bonds or UK guilts haven‘t rallied as far as Treasuries did. The march to higher yields, is on, that‘s the big picture view.The key questions now are the shape of the U.S. consumer in Q1 2023 – if retail sales show the latest reading was only a blip, there needn‘t be a significant Q1 S&P 500 correction. Stocks would instead decline thereafter. Or the tightening (including $90bn a month in balance sheet shrinking) forces some shoe to drop in 1H 2023 – watch for Fed swaps and credit default swaps to reveal the stress.I‘ll be discussing the individual market effects within the chart section.In all likelihood, this is my last extensive daily analysis of 2022 – unfortunately I‘ll have to limit analytical coverage and Twitter activities will over the coming two days, and these will be absent in the following week.Very much looking forward for returning to the usual frequency, scope and presence as of Jan 02, 2023! Thank you for your patience, and have blessed days ahead!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe higher volume can be chalked down to options expiry, and doesn‘t necessarily represent an upcoming (strong) rebound, even though we‘re likely to reflexively move up today. Even prints below 3,905-3,910 will probably provide resistance today, before to the surprise of many – we can have a relatively good part of Jan as I‘m not looking for the Santa Claus rally to come anymore.Credit MarketsTLT is hanging in there, but needs time to drif lower, while HYG can surprise in the short term. I‘m looking for these moves to determine the stock market direction next week, together with the dollar (not on a relief rally yet).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
How About a Bounce?

How About a Bounce?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.12.2022 16:08
S&P 500 continued in the post-FOMC direction, and managed to keep above the 3,905-3,910 support. Arguably it could have done better as the bond market retreated from its meekly positive posture only before the closing bell. The buyers didn‘t stage even a dead cat bounce, and that means Friday‘s option expiry day is likely to bring donwside momentum continuation, with 3,880 coming into play should the above mentioned support be not reconquered right after the open.While real assets held fine on Wednesday, both precious metals and commodities took a heavy daily hit – daily, it must be said. In spite of the rising volume, the dust is likely to settle before Christmas, and both gold and silver (together with copper) are finely positioned for 2023 – to be driven by rising volatility and sticky inflation. Oil is best held only as part of a portfolio with the above three, even if it can deliver a nice upside surprise, such catalyst isn‘t on the horizon, and first there would come the relief rally in USD, pressuring them all.And this rally can happen even as long-dated Treasuries keep rising to reflect the worsening economic data from housing, manufacturing, or retail sales (the last two confirm the U.S. as firmly on the road towards recession, the subject of Monday‘s extensive article). Final point worth noting, is the continued steepening of yield curve, and worsening financial conditions. Whenever XLF and KRE don‘t do well, it‘s more than ample warning – and financials belonged to the drivers of this bear market rally, and have rolled over earlier than industrials or materials did. Not a good sight for bulls – as stated yesterday, stock market rips are to be sold.The decreasing sensitivity to Fed rate hikes, balance sheet shrinking, and financial conditions in general, is self evident in the precious metals chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Tough Inflation Stance Still

Tough Inflation Stance Still

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.12.2022 16:08
S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already. With recession on the relatively immediate horizon, and fresh Treasury debt issuance and short-term debt rollover needs, good luck for the central bank executing the tightening policy the way they look to. Methinks that CPI, GDP and earnings projections need revisiting as the current estimates are too rosy, and well before Q2 2023 ends, the situation will be dramatically different as per Monday‘s extensive examination of which recession narrative is to pan out.My big picture view continues being to look for rips to sell as S&P 500 made two brief retracements yesterday, and the ground for Santa Claus rally looks shaky. The buyers were unwilling to step in, and justifiably so. What we have left, is remaining institutional investors buying and then the unpredictable tax loss selling amid darkening economic and liquidity horizon that‘s temporarily and disproportionaltely affecting commodity and precious metals too. As inflation wouldn‘t retreat as far as projected (5-6% appears best case), look for rising stock market volatility to usher in a fresh bid in real assets, which are slated to do well during sticky inflation and economic growth trouble times.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookYesterday I wrote that time wasn‘t on bulls‘ side, and it‘s even more true today. Key levels are described in the caption, and I doubt another 4,040 retest is coming this week. 4,025 at best.Credit MarketsNo fine message as regards risk taking, Santa Claus is having issues – and the dollar decline translates to markets saying that the upcoming issues won‘t leave the States unaffected in the least. S&P 500 bears are in control, and TLT is about to rise still some more.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Banzai CPI and Fed

Banzai CPI and Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.12.2022 15:56
S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.As usual, I‘ll be covering the FOMC live on Twitter for you.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookIn short, the bulls don‘t look to be done, but time (especially if you open the weekly chart), isn‘t on their side.Gold, Silver and MinersGreat run in silver that‘s nowhere over, and my conservative April 2023 $27 target has me itching to upgrade it over the nearest months by at least 10%. As a side note, COMEX stockpile is at 33mln oz only (typical short squeeze territory)...Crude OilCrude oil has duly turned as per the caption – and similarly to the positive natgas views published lately on Twitter (fine U.S. weather driver), sees black gold trying to turn a corner after a fake breakdown.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
That Santa Sleigh

That Santa Sleigh

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.12.2022 16:08
S&P 500 recovered Friday‘s setback with ease and on rising volume amid confirmations from outside markets. Even cryptos started pulling their weight on a daily basis, which together with advance bond, dollar, PMs and commodities price action, provided ample clues as to why my bullish bias presented in yesterday‘s extensive analysis – one not to miss – is to usher in Santa Claus rally.Whether you look at it several hours before the decelerating CPI release, or dozen of minutes before that, it was plain obvious. Both headline and core CPI cooperated, and markets are positioning for a no event FOMC tomorrow (I‘m deliberately, tongue in cheek, exaggerating). See those fireworks in real assets – no point in me in talking why I had been bullish them all, let the account balances of those listening, speak for themselves…Reminder of yesterday‘s key passages:(…) Remember my early Aug call for inflation to drift to 5-6% - we aren‘t even there yet. And how about the unwritten rule to get Fed funds rate 0.5% above inflation so as to make it restrictive? Taking on the supply side drivers of inflation (crippled supply and excess demand being equally and largest inflation drivers as per Fed‘models) with demand side tools, isn‘t working as fast as the Fed wants, and the still hot labor market (3.7% unemployment rate with 5% nominal wage growth) is also proving sticky – this one though would be unrecognizable by the end of 2023 as at least full three points can be added to the unemployment rate easily. Don‘t forget the declining participation rate effects either.So, the Fed is going to be stuck with sticky inflation and high commodity prices – even if base metals and agrifoods are likely to do better than energy over the months ahead. The Fed hasn‘t yet gotten restrictive, and markets with all their retracements of hits taken (such as Friday) are betting it wouldn‘t – the pivot hopes are still central to the bullish case at and beyond the Santa Claus time.It‘s ultimately a conflict between how deep and widespread toll the current tightening would take – it‘s about the Moynihan and Dimon viewpoints. I would argue that the first forecast of an isolated hit somewhere where it doesn‘t hurt or spread that much, with the Fed then saving the day through easy money, is a too optimistic one. The fact that so many on Wall Street are predicting earnings to grow above inflation at the most narrow margin in 40 years (6% over 5%, equalling 1%), with this being the bullish case, tells you a lot about the challenges we are to face next year.JPM‘s more realistic scenario assumes a tougher recession, one on the quite immediate horizon. One that wouldn‘t be easy to solve through liquidity injections. One that would bring down earnings, labor market and inflation more than anticipated. PMIs at this level never misindicated a recession, and yield curve inversion is highest since early 1980s. Hard landing if you will, with the Fed not blinking, and not cutting rates after Jun 2023, but keeping the Fed funds rate at 5.5% (higher if wage growth pressures persist – and odds are they would surprise the central bank still as we‘re in an environment of sticky inflation and rising yields, so don‘t overstay your long TLT welcome).In such an environment, Santa Claus rally has a tough job running, running far. It needs CPI slowdown to beat expectations, and then the Fed to do 50bp only as priced in. With the statement and conference, any words would be good to grasp at – in a Hail Mary bullish fashion.And that‘s what we got precisely, in lien with my last week inflation deceleration calls – enough for the bulls to run with.See that volume and value with tech both kicking in yesterday? The tide was rising, in the last hours before the closing bell. Typical… And off to the races in a Hail Mary bullish fashion (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Why Bulls Cheer the Coming Hit

Why Bulls Cheer the Coming Hit

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.12.2022 15:30
S&P 500 gave up not too far above the 3,965 level it could have kept as PPI decelerated not fast enough to meet market expectations. Rising yields mean markets are betting on more hawkish Fed action, even if necessarily not right in Dec or Jan – it‘s only 5% Fed funds rate that‘s priced in so far. Also, markets are thinking the Fed would be forced to start taking rates down in the 2H 2023, but such anticipation seems very premature even if the central bank goes with 50bp this week and 25bp in Jan only.Remember my early Aug call for inflation to drift to 5-6% - we aren‘t even there yet. And how about the unwritten rule to get Fed funds rate 0.5% above inflation so as to make it restrictive? Taking on the supply side drivers of inflation (crippled supply and excess demand being equally and largest inflation drivers as per Fed‘models) with demand side tools, isn‘t working as fast as the Fed wants, and the still hot labor market (3.7% unemployment rate with 5% nominal wage growth) is also proving sticky – this one though would be unrecognizable by the end of 2023 as at least full three points can be added to the unemployment rate easily. Don‘t forget the declining participation rate effects either.So, the Fed is going to be stuck with sticky inflation and high commodity prices – even if base metals and agrifoods are likely to do better than energy over the months ahead. The Fed hasn‘t yet gotten restrictive, and markets with all their retracements of hits taken (such as Friday) are betting it wouldn‘t – the pivot hopes are still central to the bullish case at and beyond the Santa Claus time.It‘s ultimately a conflict between how deep and widespread toll the current tightening would take – it‘s about the Moynihan and Dimon viewpoints. I would argue that the first forecast of an isolated hit somewhere where it doesn‘t hurt or spread that much, with the Fed then saving the day through easy money, is a too optimistic one. The fact that so many on Wall Street are predicting earnings to grow above inflation at the most narrow margin in 40 years (6% over 5%, equalling 1%), with this being the bullish case, tells you a lot about the challenges we are to face next year.JPM‘s more realistic scenario assumes a tougher recession, one on the quite immediate horizon. One that wouldn‘t be easy to solve through liquidity injections. One that would bring down earnings, labor market and inflation more than anticipated. PMIs at this level never misindicated a recession, and yield curve inversion is highest since early 1980s. Hard landing if you will, with the Fed not blinking, and not cutting rates after Jun 2023, but keeping the Fed funds rate at 5.5% (higher if wage growth pressures persist – and odds are they would surprise the central bank still as we‘re in an environment of sticky inflation and rising yields, so don‘t overstay your long TLT welcome).In such an environment, Santa Claus rally has a tough job running, running far. It needs CPI slowdown to beat expectations, and then the Fed to do 50bp only as priced in. With the statement and conference, any words would be good to grasp at – in a Hail Mary bullish fashion.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today extensive to make up for mostly briefer format till the end of the year) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAll it takes is one bad misstep Tue and Wed, and 3,905-3,910 support gives way, opening 3,880 then. Relative outperfomance of industrials, materials and financials would save the bulls, and open the way for some final 2-3 bullish weeks weeks this year.The below described credit market move favors the bulls for today – no anticipation yet of when and how this retracement of Friday‘s sharp reaction, ends. The sputtering, that‘s the key word, sputtering rally can get an ally still, provided the Fed plays ball – but don‘t pin your hopes for targets too high.Credit MarketsNot a good daily close, not at all, but quality debt will make up for that right next. What‘s required, is for junk corporate bonds to join in as well – the sentiment can‘t sink on more hawkish Fed bets.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Telltale Sign

Telltale Sign

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.12.2022 15:58
PPI and core PPI came above expectations, fuelling a sharp S&P 500 decline upon the data release. Similarly to yesterday though, the market reaction isn‘t unequivocal as neither USD nor yields are correspondingly up. Real assets aren‘t tanking either, not even the 3m Treasury yield has moved much. And that leads me to think the bearish gap on the news release, will be taken on at least to the 3,965 level degree, after an otherwise positive, bullish turn in paper assets yesterday, which was accompanied by a not at all contradictory real assets message.Summing up, the (especially the one that Fed is looking at – the core) PPI figure has spooked the markets, but there is no deleveraging panic kicking in. Gold and silver are up – and so is oil, with copper likely to improve later today as well. The dollar isn‘t barking (remember yesterday‘s article featuring similar theme), and that‘s a telltale sign that a sharp selling spree isn‘t likely to kick in after today‘s opening bell. Being ready for all eventualities, watch for the opening selling pressure to ideally dissipate within dozens of minutes after the bell, and for solid bid lifting prices above 3,965 to materialize next. Failing that, 3,905-3,910 is the support next, which I however don‘t see as likely to be jeopardized – chop would be more probable instead of a fall, as the seasonal tendencies counter the sellers still. Similarly, precious metals and commodities are likely to weather today‘s volatility fine, with the former outperforming the latter (headwinds are to be more lasting in commodities as opposed to gold and silver, which benefit from signs of inflation being as sticky as I‘ve been telling you about for months it would be. Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
The Dog That Didn‘t Bark

The Dog That Didn‘t Bark

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.12.2022 16:08
S&P 500 didn‘t break the3,905-3,910 zone, not even overnight. Most tellingly, USD couldn‘t catch a proper bid on yields turning sharply up, and commodities in the black merely confirm risk-on sentiment to win today. The bears fumbled during the European sessions, and the relative performance of value and tech highlights where to look for gains today (in the cyclicals).See the turn in intraday appreciation for oil (always good when the laggard wakes up – silver with copper continue to lead gold, and miners are to do very well) as it relates to the dollar, and how USD‘s intraday reversal reflects on what‘s to come today – already today, and not after tomorrow‘s PPI release:(…) The key catalyst to look for in terms of upside fuel, is Friday‘s PPI that‘s likely to show slowdown in inflation, and then Tuesday‘s CPI probably to come at 7.5 or 7.6% YoY, which would once again (in both cases) feed into the „Fed would now really go slow on tightening aka pivot“ angle that markets are way too willing to run with. Willing as in misguided, because the Fed isn‘t getting less restrictive at all – see rate hiking and balance sheet shrinking combined, effects to play out still. No better indicator of demand destruction to come than the price of oil really – sign of caution.Referring to the title, it‘s the USD-yields-commodities interplay, which will result in nice day of real asset trailed by stocks market gains.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNo break of the 3,905 – 3,910 support, declining volume, and crucially the above mentioned inconsistencies within the bearish push as 3,910 didn‘t break overnight regardless of a good run at it aftermarket when the bears still had the initiative that was lost during the European session only. 3,965 followed by 3,980 are the upside levels.Credit MarketsHYG recovered from intraday weakness into the close, and that was constructive – even if junk bonds underperformed TLT. During the European morning, the market shook this off, and will continue to add to gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Slight Risk-off Pause

Slight Risk-off Pause

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.12.2022 16:05
S&P 500 continued lower as the 4,010 recapture attempt failed and 3,980 couldn‘t hold. Rejection at 200-day moving average, with prices down over a 100pts makes for more than a short-term setback – I‘ve been clear that the opening part of Dec isn‘t yet time to be wildly bullish. These weeks, we‘re searching for a local low in order to take the final 2-3 weeks of Dec into early Jan by the horns. Odds are still good for Santa Claus to come by.But what about this week? Key to be nimble as we move between the 200-day and 100-day moving averages. Yesterday‘s momentum play provided such a brief opportunity, and now it‘s about the overnight rebound fizzling out again or not. Both dollar and bonds changed sharply direction intraday, and favor retracement of prior downside, but I can‘t be buying it really just yet. The key catalyst to look for in terms of upside fuel, is Friday‘s PPI that‘s likely to show slowdown in inflation, and then Tuesday‘s CPI probably to come at 7.5 or 7.6% YoY, which would once again (in both cases) feed into the „Fed would now really go slow on tightening aka pivot“ angle that markets are way too willing to run with. Willing as in misguided, because the Fed isn‘t getting less restrictive at all – see rate hiking and balance sheet shrinking combined, effects to play out still. No better indicator of demand destruction to come than the price of oil really – sign of caution.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookVolume picking up, and unless S&P 500 reclaims 3,965, the daily outlook remains bearish – and that preliminarily goes for tomorrow as well. Downside targets in case the bond upswing fizzles out today, are given in the opening part of the article.Credit MarketsSomething is wrong with HYG – I don‘t see junk corporate bonds recovering through Thursday. Much work still ahead to turn bonds risk-on, no matter precious metals and commodities today (looks more a function of the dollar daily decline).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Those Damn Swaps

Those Damn Swaps

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.12.2022 07:54
S&P 500 and especially real assets didn‘t take kindly to the serious whiff of risk-off that was manifest more so in financials (banking) than the dollar. Overshadowing the China reopening where yesterday mentioned $BABA.didn‘t disappoint (still room to run), the 500-strong index gradually and increasingly lost ground during the regular session.The overnight bounce has been weak, not taking out 4,010 conclusively (yet). The bulls lost the momentum on the second, more promising push than earlier in the European morning – 3,980 is proving resilient after all, but watch out below should it be taken out. At the same time, there is more medium-term bullish fuel to come for all the reasons mentioned yesterday.Keep in mind:(…) Friday‘s aftermath of NFPs makes it clear that market Fed pivot guessing games are very much alive and well. It‘s as if a nice lagging indicator‘s figure were to result in more Fed hawkishness, in higher hikes immediately next.That‘s not the case though – I continue standing by 50bp in Dec, 25bp in Jan and 25bp in Mar. 5.50% Fed funds rate and keeping there for long in a bid not to tip the economy into recession, but only to make it grow well below its potential – I told you this over a month ago already. They wouldn‘t though succeed, and the recent pronouncements reflecting caution about seeing all the tightening effects play out, reflects that perfectly. Looking for a crash though, and a very deep and long recession?Don‘t be, that‘s currently not my leading scenario. We would see GDP decline peak to trough by perhaps up to 2% with unemployment rate rising over 3% - this wouldn‘t approximate even the 2007-2009 crisis. As I am looking for trouble to arrive a bit before mid 2023, we have still time to see that reflected in earnings and guidance. It‘s not all about the inverted yield curve, which got inverted some more already – the larger money flows between the Treasury, Fed and banks don‘t yet support deeper downside in stocks.Trepidations before the Q4 rally peters out as it stretches into early Jan? OK, that‘s my base scenario. What are then the key levels for today? 4,040 to hold as support otherwise we may visit the 4,010s again, and these really better hold. Nothing unmanageable. 4,065 remains the goal on the upside, with more work ahead as we grind toward 4,130.It ain‘t easy, this climb – the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy (see PMIs and then hello housing, manufacturing), inflation has credibly peaked (we celebrated that on Nov CPI already), and deterioration is still to hit the job market. Watch hourly earnings, hours worked, and where those job gains come from – hospitality, leisure and retail, that‘s not a good sign, it‘ll cascade eventually into consumer confidence and retail sales as households burn through extra savings (the most vulnerable ones have already – they are now at the mercy of job market (hiring) and wage growth (currently still driven by household inflation expectations, which are higher than what‘s seen in the data, and definitely something that the Fed wants to break). Labor market adds certainly to profit margins pressure.Moreover, the Fed is not only tightening, but draining liquidity, $60bn a month in Treasuries and $30bn in mortgage backed securities. And where are foreigners, lining up for fresh debt issuance? Yeah, that‘s the larger trouble ahead.Time for big piture sectoral picks going beyond stocks – I continue being bullish on silver with gold incl. miners, energy ranging from oil to renewables to nuclear, agriculture (incl. fertilizers, $DE), defence sector with aerospace ($BA etc). These will benefit during the increased volatility and sticky inflation to be with us in 2023 and beyond.What we saw yesterday, is fear of systemic risk creeping in – as in foreboding. It ain‘t here yet, no matter what $CS and its CDS are doing (CHF would likely be a well performing currency later next year, alongside JPY) – the Fed stands ready to help wherever significant cracks overseas are appearing. Yesterday‘s reaction and what is still to play out before markets have a fundamental catalyst to turn on (Friday‘s PPI), demonstrates fear of the unknown.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit on extra intraday calls.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBack midway to the range, rising volume – the bulls don‘t have the initiative, especially not in the slow opening weeks of Dec.Credit MarketsThe degree to which HYG gets its act together today, would be most telling, I wrote Friday and yesterday – and it shows how the tables have turned yesterday. Ideally, let‘s not break below the line connecting recent HYG lows.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Finest Opportunities Ahead

Finest Opportunities Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.12.2022 16:29
S&P 500 practically closed the overreaction gap on better than expected NFPs, but the weak close and aftermarket still Friday hinted at weak entry into this week. Friday‘s aftermath of NFPs makes it clear that market Fed pivot guessing games are very much alive and well. It‘s as if a nice lagging indicator‘s figure were to result in more Fed hawkishness, in higher hikes immediately next.That‘s not the case though – I continue standing by 50bp in Dec, 25bp in Jan and 25bp in Mar. 5.50% Fed funds rate and keeping there for long in a bid not to tip the economy into recession, but only to make it grow well below its potential – I told you this over a month ago already. They wouldn‘t though succeed, and the recent pronouncements reflecting caution about seeing all the tightening effects play out, reflects that perfectly. Looking for a crash though, and a very deep and long recession?Don‘t be, that‘s currently not my leading scenario. We would see GDP decline peak to trough by perhaps up to 2% with unemployment rate rising over 3% - this wouldn‘t approximate even the 2007-2009 crisis. As I am looking for trouble to arrive a bit before mid 2023, we have still time to see that reflected in earnings and guidance. It‘s not all about the inverted yield curve, which got inverted some more already – the larger money flows between the Treasury, Fed and banks don‘t yet support deeper downside in stocks.Trepidations before the Q4 rally peters out as it stretches into early Jan? OK, that‘s my base scenario. What are then the key levels for today? 4,040 to hold as support otherwise we may visit the 4,010s again, and these really better hold. Nothing unmanageable. 4,065 remains the goal on the upside, with more work ahead as we grind toward 4,130.It ain‘t easy, this climb – the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy (see PMIs and then hello housing, manufacturing), inflation has credibly peaked (we celebrated that on Nov CPI already), and deterioration is still to hit the job market. Watch hourly earnings, hours worked, and where those job gains come from – hospitality, leisure and retail, that‘s not a good sign, it‘ll cascade eventually into consumer confidence and retail sales as households burn through extra savings (the most vulnerable ones have already – they are now at the mercy of job market (hiring) and wage growth (currently still driven by household inflation expectations, which are higher than what‘s seen in the data, and definitely something that the Fed wants to break). Labor market adds certainly to profit margins pressure.Moreover, the Fed is not only tightening, but draining liquidity, $60bn a month in Treasuries and $30bn in mortgage backed securities. And where are foreigners, lining up for fresh debt issuance? Yeah, that‘s the larger trouble ahead.Time for big piture sectoral picks going beyond stocks – I continue being bullish on silver with gold incl. miners, energy ranging from oil to renewables to nuclear, agriculture (incl. fertilizers, $DE), defence sector with aerospace ($BA etc). These will benefit during the increased volatility and sticky inflation to be with us in 2023 and beyond. China fans can take advantage of $BABA right now.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit on extra intraday calls.Just a reminded from last week – I added the promised yearly packages to both Monica's Trading Signals and Monica's Stock Signals – see the two new tiers added at Patreon.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe opening gap was practically closed, and we‘re now waiting only at the level and time the rebound would continue from.Credit MarketsThe degree to which HYG gets its act together today, will be most telling, I wrote Friday – and the picture is reasonably optimistic still.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Powell Delivered

Powell Delivered

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.12.2022 16:08
Yesterday confirmed the risk-on turn in S&P 500 and beyond as Powell didn‘t spook the markets in the end. So, not even a temporary setback, let alone crash that many others had been calling for. Face ripper rallies stretching from stocks, bonds, over to precious metals, base metals and even oil (so contingent upon what‘s going on in China) ensued. Following the Williams and Bullar duo, don‘t underestimate this key Powell pronouncement. Markets are running with that. The Q4 rally got a new lease on life, and the pace of gains (digesting this fresh momentum) are to determine not only the 4,065 support that held overnight, but also the next hurdle of 4,130 – with all that I would be guiding you on thereafter. This sharp increase in volume doesn‘t hint at more than a tactical pullback at best – with risk-on bonds firmly confirming the rally, and the dollar again losing altitude. Some recap of the fresh daily levels - don‘t be disappointed if we don‘t make it to 4,130 today, the progress already has been excellent, and no market goes up in a straight line. Volume confirms. Finally, what‘s not to love about precious metals, or the whole portfolio? Copper going hand in hand with silver, miners on fire too, and oil… Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. I can‘t stress that enough as there also intraday profit opportunities that I cover on the go via Twitter. Turn your notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing.Today, I‘m also offering the promised yearly packages to both Monica's Trading Signals and Monica's Stock Signals – see the two new tiers added at Patreon.Let‘s move right into the key chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals and miners cast the best light on the current phase of the monetary policy cycle. Bright days are arriving, and silver will lead. Potentially to $27 before Apr 2023 is over.
Raging PMs

Raging PMs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.11.2022 16:11
S&P 500 maintained overnight posture, and bonds held up really fine into the close while the dollar isn‘t showing too many signs of bullish life. The Powell speech is likely to be shaken off as I don‘t think he would tighten the screws more so than Williams and Bullard did, i.e. that markets won‘t be truly shocked.What matters more, is recovering from „sell the (good GDP) news“ as stated before the data with the still hot PCE one. Premarket S&P 500 gains are gone, and now it‘ll be up to getting Powell out of the way. Positive seasosnality is still there, but as per the earlier shared update, dust has to settle first in this largely neutral week where we make the bottom before launching higher in the final 2-3 weeks of Dec. The daily levels given yesterday, are still valid today.The real action is though in precious metals and commodities where even the greatly vulnerable (to upcoming declines in economic activity, i.e. recession) crude oil is seeing solid gains. Silver, copper and gold are predictably scoring and extending gains, with miners in the tow (i.e. no red flags) on the inflation data. So sorry for all those who followed permabears‘ siren songs about imminent drops that just can‘t and won‘t materialize to a meaningful degree. Real assets, similar to 1970s, are undergoing a secular shift, and the recognition as measured e.g. in relation to the stock market, isn‘t yet there. So much more price appreciation to come – and we needn‘t wait truly long for that! (Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. I can‘t stress that enough as there also intraday profit opportunities that I cover on the go via Twitter.
Powell Ahead

Powell Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.11.2022 16:04
S&P 500 recovered from China uncertainty, keeping right below 4,000 until Williams and Bullard reiterated sticky inflation and high rates views. Reiterated – not brought fresh and unexpected information. Still, stocks and much of the rest declined sharply, and even the 3,960s support was tested. It held, and overnight crawl higher began. VIX is slowly picking up, market breadth deteriorated, but Russell 2000 isn‘t in capitulation mode. Neither are my favorite Friday mentioned sectors. While I‘m not a raging short-term bull, I acknowledge the very solid medium-term prospects for the stock market rally to continue, especially over the final 2-3 weeks of the year. Markets are welcoming the decelerating inflation, and willing to bet against the hawkish Fed rhetoric in the short-term. Running on borrowed time, but running still.Note crude oil and precious metals with copper – turning up on yet another China easing rumor. Should it turn out true, it would be powerful, but for now let‘s count with muted, positive effect on the ebbing and flowing real assets. More up than down as the sensitivity to tight Fed rhetoric and moves decreases.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook4,010 will again be a daily stumbling block, but it would be encouraging to reach it on or before GDP tomorrow – then, there is Powell to recover from, his effect is likely to be bearish. Bulls don‘t want to see 3,960s give way. I‘m not yet looking to 4,040 – this will be a tough sideways week regardless of positive seasonality.Credit MarketsThe degree to which HYG gets its act together today, will be most telling – as in determining the short-term direction this week Worst case, low 3,940s are second line of support, but I doubt we get there at all.
Wildcard In

Wildcard In

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.11.2022 15:57
S&P 500 keeps nibbing at 4,040 and while rejected Friday and before, this level would be eventually overcome. Low 4,010s are the support, and the remaining key data of 2022 shouldn‘t force a lasting break. Of course, unless China uncertainty strikes the way it did over the weekend – Asian session understandably took the bulk of the hit but the rush to bonds appears receding for now. Even if S&P 500 buyers would be overpowered right next, the Q4 rally isn‘t over – the headline dust only needs to settle.Market breadth is improving, VIX is revealing retreating fears, and in general we‘re back to summer bets on less restrictive Fed. Just like back then the negative quarterly GDP print drew focus to the recession now predictions (didn‘t happen), the latest retreat in inflation (with more, lot more to come) is giving rise to similar bets.Even if the Fed goes only 50bp in Dec (as anticipated long ago) and 25bp in Jan, that‘s still a headwind – it‘ll tip the real economy into recession, no matter how slow they are planning to go now. 5% year end or 5.50% after Mar FOMC – either will do the trick. Yield curve has twice inverted, housing feels that, manufacturing is sputtering, and labor market posture (tightness or hotness, call it whatever you please) will change. Tech layoffs are only a harbinger.What does it mean for stocks now? We‘re still moving higher before recession goes after earnings. 4,065 – 4,070 followed by even 4,130, are my key levels to watch in the weeks ahead.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe real resistance is a bit above the 200-day moving average. The spring is coiled, and ready – it‘ll more probably happen on Wednesday‘s GDP than on Tuesday‘s consumer confidence. Sectors featured Friday will do great.Credit MarketsThe retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds will continue – Friday was a welcome reprieve. Loaded and ready to go higher in support of the stock market rally.
Winning the Day

Winning the Day

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.11.2022 15:55
S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out.If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe chart is still strong, and 3,958 shouldn‘t really come into danger – the time is to gather strength for the final 2-3 weeks of this year, and to run (higher). 4,040 getting out of the way, determines the speed and path of the upswing. 4,010s is the first line of support.Credit MarketsThe retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds will continue even as today‘s premarket progress has been reversed, and then some. Bonds haven‘t peaked, and neither have cyclicals or tech within this bear market rally in stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals surely give an appearance of the lows being in, and now are in the process of making higher highs and higher lows. Note the often written about decreasing sensitivity to rate hikes and at times hawkish rhetoric – economic slowdown with dollar getting challenged, that‘s an elixir that copper also likesCrude OilOil bulls better clear back above $80 again, but the short-term chart technicals look slated against. I‘m willing to sit out the setback - while combined with precious metals, copper and stocks, this portfolio should win the day together.
Ready to Spring

Ready to Spring

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.11.2022 15:56
S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNasdaq is nicely primed to take the cue, and help S&P 500 higher in the coming microrotation caused by further retreat in long-term yields. I still say that 4,000 are on the chopping block this week.Credit MarketsDaily pause in bonds that doesn‘t look like getting resolved to the upside and dragging risk assets along. Contracting volume equals a bigger move is readied, and odds are it would lead higher.
Fake Breakdown

Fake Breakdown

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.11.2022 16:13
S&P 500 bears couldn‘t follow through, and the bond market downswing looks tired – starting off a risk-on base, never quite flipping risk-off. Perhaps best of all, tech saved its bullets, and is ready to join when TLT comes back and erases Friday‘s modest decline on low volume. The usual „suspects“ continue doing well – energy, healthcare, consumer staples, materials and industrials – best picks for what‘s to come in the remaining part of this rally.It can and still will go on – all the mixed Fed messaging in the prior week won‘t stop it, signs of decelerating inflation would continue popping up (to accompany PPI) while speculation would continue as to when exactly would a recession arrive. Approaching, not yet here except for housing, manufacturing etc that feel the pain already – remember, job market is the last to roll over (non-farm payrolls – unemployment claims are actually leading). The gyrating bets on Fed taking its foot off the pedal, are the ingredient that can power stocks higher before earnings start to bite next year.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFake breakdown was indeed the result of what I wrote here Friday morning. 4,000 are on the chopping block this week.Credit MarketsFor now, both the retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds, can continue. Still a lot of instituitional money on the sidelines that needs to be invested before year end – both in stocks and bonds.Gold, Silver and MinersThis doesn‘t look like the end of a major countertrend rally – higher highs have been made while fresh lows… not exactly. The tide has turned, and precious metals would focus increasingly more on the high debt servicing costs in anticipation of yet another Fed turn (in support of the economy and fiscal deficits that would grow during recessions) no matter whether 5% or 5.50% Fed funds rate is reached after Mar FOMC – see how little decline happend from Jul lows and where rates were back then.
Monica Kingsley talks S&P 500, crude oil and more - November 18th

Monica Kingsley talks S&P 500, crude oil and more - November 18th

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.11.2022 15:58
S&P 500 bulls came back, 3,910 support held, and the dollar was unable to hold on to intraday gains really. In the European morning, I doubted the bearish shift materializing later today as the Fed speakers‘ risk-off momentum did wear off already yesterday. Precious metals are indeed leading the charge among real assets, and I‘m still not writing off crude oil. S&P 500 looks likely to conquer the low 4,010s today, which would flip the daily chart distinctly bullish again. Paying off not to panic – the Fed‘s ability to tighten in the face of slowing economy, is correctly being doubted – 4.50% Fed funds rate year end is still a great tightening achievement but stocks are willing to run higher in its face. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Fake breakdown on low volume attracting no sellers – that would be the most likely conclusion after today‘s closing bell. Credit Markets HYG posture is bound to improve further today – the downswing was bought, and white body candle awaits today while TLT more or less erases yesterday‘s decline. Gold, Silver and Miners We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will likely hold on to and extend today‘s premarket gains. Silver is still recharging batteries, but will recapture $22 with ease. Crude Oil Oil downswing appears overdone, but unless $82.50 is recaptured and WTIC starts outperforming especially base metals, the short-term outlook is tricky. Oil stocks not joining in the slide, is though positive – so, I‘m not turning bearish.
On the Defensive

On the Defensive

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.11.2022 16:07
S&P 500 bulls didn‘t close conclusively while neither bonds nor the dollar pressured them much. Today, the manufacturing data confirmed my earlier point that a manufacturing recession is inevitable following yield curve inversions – so, more deterioration. It‘s though the Fed speakers that are being feared today – the dollar and yields are enjoying a reprieve even though the dollar upswing would prove temporary as I don‘t favor 75bp hike in Dec. The momentum is though with the bears today – risk-off session awaits.Remember the one wish for yesterday? Markets didn‘t deliver any daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year – quite to the contrary.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookWe didn‘t keep above 3,958, and are unlikely to return there before the week is over – judging by the premarket today. Much depends upon the closing volume and candle shape, upon the degree to which tech is (or isn‘t) able to shake off the pressure today.Credit MarketsWill bonds buy into the hawkish Fed messaging, or will they shake it off by the close of tomorrow? Again, volume would offer a clue as to where this unfolding downswing stops.Gold, Silver and MinersWe haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will recover from the risk-off whiff that would extend here too – silver at $21 is cheap, and wouldn‘t suffer the same mid-Oct setback this month, just look how well the miners progressed since.Crude OilOil stocks warrant some short-term caution, but together with crude oil, have better days ahead – returning above $90 before this month is over easily.
Back to Risk-On

Back to Risk-On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.11.2022 15:05
S&P 500 hasn‘t truly reversed yesterday – corrections are still to be bought, and the retreat in yields is especially helpful to tech as I wrote about extensively on Monday. The long end of the curve is in the stabilization with a bullish bias mode, putting pressure on the dollar, and no amount of hawkish assurances by Fed speakers has stood in the way. I‘m not afraid of the stalling value and cyclicals – healthcare looks ready to move higher again.When it comes to retail sales and its effect on stocks, I‘m looking for the bulls to prevail in the end. The market breadth is still good, and VIX conducive to further gains after some trepidation. As 4,010s have been broken, 3,973 is likely to hold (if anything, 3,958 is waiting in the wings). The daily outlook is for relatively narrow range with an upward bias for prices.And that translates into precious metals as well, where $1,752 is the first support for gold, and silver ready to defend the $22 handle, which means that gold wouldn‘t really swing below $1,765 (not even theoretically) let alone give up much of intraday gains today – I‘m looking for crude oil to join and return back above $87.50 while copper does away with at least a third of its premarket downswing. Meanwhile, the crypto fallout continues, with Ethereum getting into headlines…One wish for today? Some daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookAs long as we keep above the above mentioned supports, S&P 500 with Nasdaq are poised to extend gains throughout this week. - the path of least resistance is still up, and 4,040 will be overcome.Credit MarketsStill risk-on, no warning sign in bonds – the retreat in long-dated yields is indeed continuing this week, and would continue over the nearest weeks as well.Gold, Silver and MinersThis has been and still is a very bullish chart, one that got confirmed with a powerful upswing that‘s not about to pause much. Precious metals are to enjoy the weakening dollar as much as commodities, with silver learding gold.
Tight Range Grind

Tight Range Grind

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.11.2022 15:12
S&P 500 reversed lower before the closing bell, but the low volume took away from the move‘s credibility. Only the bond market was more pessimistic in its close, however the USD reverxing premarket gains into solid red, continues hinting at more upside in stocks – no matter the manufacturing and PPI data today (retail sales tomorrow would be more conducive than these two).For today, tech is likely to do better than value, which attracted rising selling pressure yesterday. The retreat in yields is likely to cushion primarily the beleaguered tech and communications, taking the daily spotlight from real assets. I am not looking for a sizable bullish move today in precious metals or oil – stocks will provide more opportunities.4,010s are likely to provide resistance while 3,973 remains the support that‘s increasingly less likely to be jeopardized today. 4,040s are more probable - I‘m looking for risk-on to win after the open, which would would help real assets intraday too, but would be followed by some selling before close again.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Paradigm Shift

Paradigm Shift

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.11.2022 16:05
S&P 500 confirmed Thursday‘s sharp upswing with more strength, and that‘s great for all of our long portfolio bets. Smashing turn continues in a taking no prisoners style (fresh China corona rules easing speculation helped) – the two key fixtures propelling markets higher, are the sharp USD downswing that I called for in Oct, and stabilization in yields – a steep decline taking e.g. the 10-year yield to 3.82% from above 4.20%.Such an environment is conducive for the badly beaten tech and communications to outperform value on a short-term basis, in essence for as long as the retreat in yields last. Industrials, materials and oil stocks wouldn‘t do badly in the least either, perhaps financials as well. Also, it launches precious metals and commodities out of their sideways consolidation to the upper echelons. Yes, Thursday was an important medium-term catalyst, with strongly bullish implications. While till Oct, you were fine with cash, shorting paper, and long energy with USD, now it‘s the greenback that would suffer more often than not while everything else (apart from the tectonic event overshadowing crypto) mostly rises.Why do I say only medium-term?Remember we didn‘t get any Fed pivot, any Fed pause – anhd today‘s cautious Fed words confirm that. The bets are merely on deceleration of rate hikes, correctly so. Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. More rate hikes are to come in 2023 – the Fed doesn‘t sound to be done, the risks of more tightening are clearly there. The real economy isn‘t yet in a recession, and in Fed‘s view inflation isn‘t defeated. Labor market remains tight, and should it prove a source mirroring heightened inflation expectations (think households), the Fed will take its aim. This Q4 rally that would last into Jan, is running on borrowed time, with strong short-term momentum, but would face the fate of the summer rally. This European morning‘s outlook is being confirmed at the onset of US session.Today‘s analysis is exceptionally free for everyone to see the typical extensive length content and scope – in recognition of a smashing prior week, one for the record books.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSolid S&P 500 and Nasdaq upswings with volume behind them – the momentum is strong, and likely to continue through Nov without much of a hiccup.Credit MarketsStill risk-on, no warning sign in bonds – the retreat in long-dated yields should continue over the nearest weeks.Gold, Silver and MinersThis is a very bullish chart, one that got confirmed with a powerful upswing that‘s not yet pausing much. Precious metals are to enjoy the weakening dollar as much as commodities, with silver learding gold.Crude OilCrude oil has been bidding its time over the week just gone, but it‘s well positioned to extend gains by breaking out of the recent long consolidation. Note the symmetry to the left and right of the Sep bottom – pretty nicely coiled spring now.CopperCopper is surging, and my Oct long call has been vindicated – the red metal is leading the commodities sector, which is an important sign.Bitcoin and EthereumEncouraging short-term sign is the double bottom holding, but I‘m not counting on this being the ultimate crypto low.
Reason and Jubilation

Reason and Jubilation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.11.2022 15:55
S&P 500 neatly surprised on the upside as it moved in line with yesterday‘s detailed battle plan - strong risk-on day followed. Value was in the lead, volume rose strongly as quite a few CPI internals combined with high Oct 2021 reading to compare against, made for a jubilant (over)reaction in betting the Fed won‘t be as hawkish as Powell projected during the latest conference. It‘s not yet the time though to dampen the bullish spirits, or to spring the long-term giant bull trap which just isn‘t there if you‘re thinking in terms of days or weeks. This is still the time of a Q4 rally, with a fine Dec rally carrying over into Jan ahead.Bond yields retreated and the dollar cratered as those 50bp Dec rate hike bets that I was presenting for weeks as most likely, get acknowledged by the markets – to the cost of USD bulls. Money is coming out of the safe haven hiding place, and markets are still (the Fed is likely to slow down the pace of hikes – we are quite far in the rate raising cycle) celebrating yesterday‘s stunner to the many expecting a hot print (thankfully not you, I had been as clear as always).The bulls‘ objective for today is to consolidate comforatbly above the 3,960 support, which should be easy given the dollar‘s retreat by another 1% today. On the upside, taking a bite at 4,000s. So far so good. Precious metals rejoiced, and their bullish grind higher is set to continue at its own pace – I‘m still favoring silver medium-term over gold, regardless of the two changing the baton today. Note also the ease with which crude oil returned to $90, and copper strongly bucking the daily silver direction. These are all very fine long core portfolio positions to have while in cryptos the FTX dust hasn‘t settled yet, very far from it (sensitive to surprises both ways).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).Credit MarketsThat‘s the key chart for today – the HYG long lower knot is a bit disconcerting, but should faciliate any meaningful setback today unless TLT confirms. And the long end of the curve is still trying to retreat some more today – this decline in yields though would get questioned, that‘s a matter of time, but no serious challenge would be fielded today. There is a reasonably fine close to great week ahead!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Tight CPI Race

Tight CPI Race

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.11.2022 14:38
S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookI‘m leaning towards the thesis that we haven‘t seen a genuine reversal yesterday.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Winds of Change

Winds of Change

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.11.2022 16:02
Making a fine run, S&P 500 retreated from a vulnerable level of 3,865, but the bulls didn‘t give up totally since. Still, this tough 3,848 – 3,855 resistance held, the breakout was rejected, and another attempt has to wait for the CPI aftermath. One good argument for a lackluster session today is the likely (dead cat) bounce in the dollar as the correction hasn‘t played out yet after yet another day deep in the red, which would coincide with a slight move higher in yields exerting pressure namely on tech. In short, stock bulls would be on the defensive today, and unlikely to make solid and lasting progress.Just as I have written yesterday, 3,815 has to hold as support while already 3,845 would be biting today should the buyers make it that far in the first place, and:(…) 3,848 – 3,855 represents solid resistance that can be reasonably overcome only on a sharp risk-on turn in bonds … – still, the medium-term trend is up, and it‘s only a matter of time (more likely facilitated by Thursday‘s CPI confirming the notion of inflation peak being in, than midterms) before this level gets broken to the upside. Note that stocks are unable to get much support from retreating oil prices (WTIC moved from $93 to $88), and natgas is below $6. Even the highly encouraging precious metals run on increasing volume is undergoing a (healthy, must be stated, healthy) correction today, but the winds of change are blowing, with especially silver being a winning proposition. Copper continues confirming the breakout attempt from the monthslong consolidation with decreasing sensitivity to the rate hikes. And here we are, late in the tightening cycle, with CPI tomorrow likely to feed into Dec 50bp angle, helping crude oil to return above $90 and USD remaining on the defensive though not as badly as cryptos where the dust isn‘t settled yet.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Greenback decreased yesterday. Cryptocurrency world is absorbed with Binance-FTX case

Greenback decreased yesterday. Cryptocurrency world is absorbed with Binance-FTX case

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.11.2022 15:57
S&P 500 closed on declining volume higher yesterday, but bonds weren‘t truly confirming for much of the session. Still, the table was set for the break higher, and I didn‘t hesitate in calling for it even in absence of bond or USD confirmation. Till the closing bell, the bonds chart posture improved somewhat, leaving the stock market upswing more well rounded than it would otherwise have been if you looked only at sectoral strength. The dollar went down a bit too much, bit too fast yesterday, and even though real assets (with copper bucking the trend today as much as it did yesterday with its close in the red) are modestly down on a less than decent USD upswing. Crypto daily woes remain isolated to the FTX (FTX-Binance) trigger, and are unlikely to spill over into other markets. Precious metals and copper offered a pleasant sight for the bulls, amply justifying my change of tune in the weeks gone by and still to come – note that even gold consolidated on declining volume, proving that there isn‘t much willingness to sell. As for today‘s S&P 500 levels, 3,815 has to hold as support while 3,848 – 3,855 represents solid resistance that can be reasonably overcome only on a sharp risk-on turn in bonds, which doesn‘t look to get a catalyst during today‘s session. Let‘s see about a possible pleasant surprise – still, the medium-term trend is up, and it‘s only a matter of time (more likely facilitated by Thursday‘s CPI confirming the notion of inflation peak being in, than midterms) before this level gets broken to the upside. This explains today‘s title „More of the Same“ = „Grinding Higher, not a Turnaround Tuesday“. This run can continue alongside the commodities and precious metals upswings, but the real asset one would prove more durable as in Q1 2023 stocks would look around and ask „based on what have we been rallying“. Crude oil would be comfortably in the triple digits by then... Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
That Bullish Catalyst

That Bullish Catalyst

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.11.2022 15:20
S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have done a lot better – and I mean especially those multinationals with a high ratio of foreign earnings. Tech though merely complied with the almost obligatory upswing – it‘s the formerly leading $FAANG stocks that are still most vulnerable, and especially so when the year end tax loss selling kicks in in the final two weeks of December. An underperformer, simply put.For now, markets were lifted by the ongoing speculation about possible China‘s zero covid policies easing, and that concerns especially those related stocks such as BABA or real assets. If I were to pick a single best thing to have happened Friday, it would be the rise in yield spreads on a reasonably positive advance-decline line move.Now, let‘s look at the headline reversal – once the existing China policies were confirmed to be maintained, risk-off was expected to raise its head again, yet didn‘t get too far. Already before the open, we‘re trading above my 3,780s level marking the daily bias as either bullish above, or bearish (consolidation only unless confirmed by outside markets) below. Cryptos are likely to confirm limited downside potential today if you look at Bitcoin at $20,700 currently (lower knot in the making).Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 5 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersTremendous precious metals upswing that wasn‘t sold into during the day really – this is a great start, but much work remains to be done in overcoming Sep, let alone Aug highs in gold (silver would be flying by then), against the backdrop of Powell saying that now he sees the target Fed funds rate higher than he did in Sep (meaning higher than 4.50%). This makes for anything but one way upswing from here.Crude OilI haven‘t been featuring this chart lately often, because everything is going so well for us here – triple digit oil is coming back indeed this year still, and SPR drawdowns are over while OPEC+ isn‘t really in a position to increase production.CopperA week ago, I wrote that copper would join precious metals, and so it did. The chart is still bullish, the move is driven by China, and the high volume very promising – at least to the degree of a fresh support above late Oct highs being established.
Risk-On In the Making

Risk-On In the Making

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.11.2022 15:06
S&P 500 has good odds of having reached a local bottom, and performance around my yesterday‘s level of 3,752 would reveal the index direction for today. As for non-farm payrolls, I‘m looking for the number not to disappoint, and to have in the end a somewhat positive effect on stocks. The initial worry about a positive number implying the Fed gets more leevay in being hawkish, needs to wear off first.What‘s remarkable about today, is that the no bond yields retreat (to the contrary, yields are up) is still sending the dollar down while precious metals and commodities are sharply higher. The lion‘s share of the explanation could be a fundamental one – Saudi Arabia has declared China to be its reliable partner, which isn‘t a stunner to anyone paying attention, including to the geographic destination of Saudi Arabia oil where Asian customers rule.The earlier prediction of real assets benefiting more than stocks as the S&P 500 weighed down by the troubled tech (check Monday‘s extensive article for outperforming sectors), is playing out in plain sight – and cryptos are likely to do likewise well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Quite aggressive stance of Fed affected stock market, bonds and more

Quite aggressive stance of Fed affected stock market, bonds and more

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.11.2022 15:09
S&P 500 was indeed sluggish into the FOMC only to welcome the statement – and then the presser came, with acentuated hawkishness that did sink not only stocks, but also bonds and real assets. The encouraging reprieve on the long end of the curve is giving way to further flattening, which only serves to highlight tight money circumstances. In such an environment, the dollar thrives, and another risk-off day is what we‘re on the doorstep of. The encouraging dialing back of Dec rate hike to only 50bp (assigned 57% probability right after the statement), looks history as bond traders are forcing higher yields across the board today. On one hand, the impact of rate hikes seems to be generating less fear (selling) since the Jackson Hole and Sep FOMC, on the other hand, it invalidates prior constructive moves in bonds, where especially the long-dated ones look to have bottomed in October. It‘s at least reasonable stability if not a modest upswing (or a more decent one in recognition of slowing economy, which isn‘t yet slowing down fast enough to force yields down on this account) that stocks need for a sustainable Q4 rally – rally that should still continue, and reach my 3,950 year end target. Volatility and options activity isn‘t though painting a bullish daily picture in the least – bonds are again doing the tightening for the Fed, and it shows in commodities, precious metals and finally cryptos as well. Relatively resilient is of course only oil, and perhaps copper can show limited bouts of relative strength here and there too. When it comes to daily S&P 500 levels, the bulls want to hold 3,710s, and see any rebound attempts accompanied by risk-on turns in bonds, and I‘m looking more towards TLT today. Overcoming 3,780 seems a pipe dream. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features two.
FOMC Reversal?

FOMC Reversal?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.11.2022 15:49
S&P 500 was rejected at 3,920s, but bonds didn‘t paint a disastrous picture throughout the day. The dollar‘s long lower knot seems to favor the bulls once the FOMC dust settles. I count on the Fed‘s 75bp hike and overall message to be hawkish, but it looks to be losing some punch since the Jackson Hole and Sep FOMC, which is visible in precious metals.Yesterday‘s economic data fed into the hawkish Fed fears, and the premarket session is continuing on the same note, with stocks, bonds, commodities and the dollar all declining – except for precious metals.It seems the initial reaction to the monetary policy statement would be about more selling, and should Powell be unequivocal, blunt and concise in both the statement and press conference, more selling would follow. This scenario though looks less probable to me as I favor the buyers to step in on a less than totally hawkish delivery.The real economy is slowing, and even though core inflation remains stubborn and job market tight, the Fed would prefer not to deliver an uberhawkish message, but one consistent with their wish to keep the Fed funds rate at slightly restrictive level (that‘s 4.5% year end, meaning 50bp in Dec) for a significant amount of time as they wish to avoid tripping the economy into recession, which another 75bp hike in Dec would not only do, but hasten (it‘s also about the path of hard landing that markets are discounting already).As regards commodities and precious metals, they would benefit as much as stocks from the less hawkish than feared stance. Bonds are cautious, and there is no sign of panic. Just as in stocks, the initial downside (which has historically lasted even into the day after), is likely to be at least partially reversed to the upside already today.I‘ll of course be commenting live on Twitter the upcoming market and Fed moves.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Dips to Buy

Dips to Buy

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.11.2022 15:55
S&P 500 indeed entered yesterday in a corrective mode, which turned out to be a shallow downswing. USD and yields moved up – a bit too much to my liking, in a move that I saw as fake, especially when the closing prices are considered. And these are being duly reversed today, in what is increasingly looking as a solid risk-on day.Today, we shouldn‘t really move below 3,900, and my first target of 3,935 should turn out a piece of cake for the bulls today – such was the technical outlook before JOTLS openings and ISM manufacturing PMIs – these didn‘t disappoint, and thus are fueling the hawkish Fed bets, with bonds obliging and duly giving up much of intraday gains. I‘m looking for this gyration to prove temporary, and for stocks to work first on stabilizing and then on recovering lost ground. The fresh objective is to return back into 3,900s.Note though the strong silver upswing which I had been vocal about for quite a while already – the white metal is joined by copper, which I looked forward for seeing as a sign of short-term confirmation. The hit after the incoming data would prove temporary – even if cryptos aren‘t participating Tuesday, which is a little red flag which I think we can afford to ignore – I‘m not looking for a risk-off reversal today. Just a setback that has to be worked out, and will be. Asset prices broadly speaking would return to benefiting from the retreat in yields that‘s serves to take the wind of USD sails.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Correction Time Indeed

Correction Time Indeed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.10.2022 15:54
S&P 500 didn‘t look back after Friday‘s opening bell - poor AAPL, AMZN guidance stemming from the cloud business chiefly (AMD, INTC, MSFT noting cooling in personal computing) was ignored, and the bull flag that I told you about in the premium section, was duly resolved to the upside.Bonds confirmed as far as their risk-on posture goes, but HYG looks in need of a little daily consolidation while long-term yields need more time basing as the Fed and foreigners have largely vacated the market – that goes chiefly for Japan, Europe, and also China in need of supporting their own currencies or making energy purchases, which is meaningfully impacting respective trade balances. The dollar though looks medium-term vulnerable here – the upswing of last two days leaves something to be desired, the greenback has potentially topped, or at least (this one is sure) has entered a corrective mode.The current era of tight money is best illustrated by the degree of yield curve inversion, and how the short end of the curve is still pushing the Fed to tighten not only by 75bp in Nov, but by the same amount in Dec too. Having looked at recent central bank moves (Australia and Canada lowering the pace of rate increases while only ECB tightened in line with expectations), the Fed would probably though relent after Nov as well (the cracks overseas are growing, debt servicing costs in the States inexorably rising, and currency crises abroad looming), which has implications for all asset classes discussed below.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 4 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals would rejoice over the dollar consolidation, and the only question is whether USD needs to pause in its upswing, or has to really correct lower – the odds are we would get a greenback downswing before midterms. Add some focus on waning growth, and not on inflation fighting, and the bullish bias manifests.CopperCopper will join precious metals, and its chart posture is looking fine. The only watchout is should USD swing to new highs, which isn‘t though immediately (this year) likely.
Another Bought Dip

Another Bought Dip

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.10.2022 15:35
S&P 500 was pulled lower overnight on poor AAPL, AMZN guidance even though current earnings didn‘t disappoint much – odds were any S&P 500 setback would be bought. The premarket downswing brought stocks once again almost to the initial low point (just four points above the waiting buy order) only to see them recover close to unchanged. Forward guidance was shaken off – the effect upon earnings has indeed to wait till early 2023.Market breadth has been improving, cyclicals and smallcaps are leading, which is consistent with my thesis that the U.S. is still best placed to weather the storm. The Q4 rally can proceed, core PCE isn‘t to rattle stocks, and I‘m dealing with namely precious metals and crude oil perspectives (more sensitive right now to Fed tightening prospects) in the chart section.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today long) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 4 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still struggling even when dollar and yields retreat, knowing full well the Fed didn‘t back off – their time hasn‘t yet come. Silver can be counted on to move together with copper higher, but low stockpiles aren‘t yet biting enough. Just some more focus on inflation and not on inflation fighting, is required.Crude OilCrude oil is being led by oil stocks, and WTIC can think about taking at least on $95 before the year is over.
Bulls to Get Challenged

Bulls to Get Challenged

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.10.2022 15:41
S&P 500 has been rejected at 3,900, but is showing premarket fine resilience in light of the META disappointment – and AAPL is reporting today. Sectoral market breadth is simply improving, value and cyclicals are keeping stocks afloat no matter the coming tech earnings (that covers AMZN too) with their possible gyrations offering buying opportunities.Bonds have retained risk-on posture even though HYG was somewhat rejected. The premarket positioning is cautious, with the dollar retracing a good deal of this week‘s decline – advance quarterly GDP data is unlikely to trigger a selloff in stocks. The sentiment today is though undeniably cautious as precious metals, commodities and cryptos reveal.What‘s a clear warning sign for stocks short-term, is the combination of declining VIX and also the advance-decline line. While META didn‘t exert that much influence, the coming two days could test the bulls adequately – with still relatively fine incoming economic data postponing that challenge for later today and tomorrow. Make no mistake though, the horizon is slowly darkening while silver followed by oil, copper first of all, and then gold with confirming miners, retain the highest medium- and long-term potential.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Q4 Rally Confirmed

Q4 Rally Confirmed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.10.2022 16:01
S&P 500 made the move, breaking above the key 3,795 – 3,810 zone. Given the outside markets, the pullback would represent a buying opportunity, and the MSFT, GOOG earnings have indeed provided a profit taking opportunity as I warned about well before yesterday. Now, we‘re looking at the depth of the pullback and depending upon the degree of disappointment over new home sales later today, for a possible return to the low 3,800s – that would present a buying opportunity for the 500-strong index as smallcaps are leading higher, USD is wobbling as I told you on Monday it would, and yields with real assets and cryptos have dealt in resolutely with the premarket weakness yesterday.After wild gyrations when I forecasted hot consumer inflation figures that would crater the markets, and me going bullish the day after CPI (on Oct 14) in line with the extensive Oct 10 analysis predicting the Q4 rally to start on the CPI release, the hypothesis was confirmed by the markets even as it dealt me a few whipsaws since. The Q4 rally is underway, and I‘m just stating the obvious that the dips (including those to scare you out) are to be bought – and should one happen later today, that would be a gift.Yesterday‘s performance in oil stocks confirms that real assets are to join in the upswing even if miners are somewhat lagging and copper did struggle yesterday. Cryptos reflect and confirm the risk-on turn as established (didn‘t take too long since I talked their bullish bias on Monday), long-dated yields have topped for now, and dollar‘s troubles (also featured in Monday‘s analysis) are to provide tailwinds.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today long) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features two.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 did overcome the pattern of lower highs, and the bulls have the upper hand now. No need to wait for three consecutive closes in stating the obvious. The poor guidance of MSFT and miss by GOOG provide a welcome justfication for retreat.Credit MarketsBonds are now confirming the upswing in stocks, and the top in yields looks to have been reached – during early 2023 though, I am looking for Treasuries to resume their decline once again, but first let the decent upswing on deteriorating real economy prospects (before the Fed‘s pause / pivot) come.
Chop Before the Move

Chop Before the Move

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.10.2022 15:53
Today‘s S&P 500 analysis will be short as the price action is unfolding as anticipated – stocks made an inroad into the key 3,795 – 3,810 zone (actually a couple of them), and after prolonged overnight consolidation right below, turned somewhat south only to move back up again. So much for price behavior in the vicinity of strong resistance – we have to wait still whether it plays out later on as favored by the odds.Intermarket though, the modest 500-strong index decline is a bit odd as it‘s accompanied by a retreat in both yields and the dollar (that alone would favor higher stock prices). The USD behavior isn‘t that strange though as I‘ve mentioned the greenback within yesterday‘s extensive analysis:(…) What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.What was a consolidation before another upswing, risks becoming a period when the dollar starts declining, which is a recognition that the Fed and most global central banks‘ tightening strains created and manifesting, won‘t remain overseas, but would reach the States as well. While not enough cracks are emerging, both the U.S. and global leading economic indicators are projecting a picture of guaranteed recession – with the only questions being its severity and duration.The dollar‘s daily showing isn‘t thus so surprising – at least TLT declined into the close yesterday. What I would be watching out for keenly today, is dialing back of risk sentiment, which should be seen also in commodities, precious metals and cryptos ideally, not just in various junk bonds. Quoting again from the above Monday‘s analysis:(…) Technically for S&P 500, unless the 3,795 – 3,810 zone is broken, the bears hold the upper hand. The appearing cracks, the financial stress in the system as shown in CDS or USD swap facilities being drawn, would hold the upper hand in this headline sensitive risk-on rally that‘s trying to front run the Fed without evidence that the Fed is actually at least pausing. That would prove the (otherwise seasonally justified rally‘s) undoing, with more pain to come early 2023.The contact and price behavior at the resistance zone before AAPL reports, would be key for the fate of this – by now feeble still – couter trend rally within the context of a larger bear market. Premarket action in real assets bodes well for the bears in stocks so far (3,680, even better 3,660 is the support that needs to be taken out for the bears to regain initiative even before Thursday), and I‘ll be watching and commenting on bonds and forex action as the regular session starts.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Fate of Q4 Rally

Fate of Q4 Rally

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.10.2022 16:29
S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is the most likely route they‘ll take, markets have started favoring 75bp in Dec, and its possibility has been on Friday dialed back to 50% only. That‘s hardly a pause or pivot to me, but the speculation was enough to carry risk-on sentiment reliably into the close. What I am questioning is whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when long-dated Treasuries still haven‘t found a bottom as foreigners are forced to sell in dramatic reversion of seemingly forever trade surpluses and high energy prices, which in case of natural gas can‘t be as regionally comparable as in oil. Together with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, this has implications for the debt markets, which I discussed both in mid Sep and in the above linked article.The turn in junk bonds is fine for the bulls, but similarly to the S&P 500, it‘s still characterized by a pattern of lower highs after the summer rally fizzled out. It‘s only the Russell 2000 which has managed to keep above the Jun lows – and that confirms the rightful conclusion that the U.S. are best positioned at the moment still to weather the storm. What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.What was a consolidation before another upswing, risks becoming a period when the dollar starts declining, which is a recognition that the Fed and most global central banks‘ tightening strains created and manifesting, won‘t remain overseas, but would reach the States as well. While not enough cracks are emerging, both the U.S. and global leading economic indicators are projecting a picture of guaranteed recession – with the only questions being its severity and duration. Thursday‘s batch of economic data that I highlighted for you the day before, confirm that.Also the earnings per share for the 500-strong index paints a bearish long-term picture – the current $245 figure would be dialed back to $190, perhaps even $180s, and that would have consequences on the valuation multiple for stocks as well. After the week just in, it can be said that the percentage of companies beating estimates, and the magnitude of a positive surprise, is historically disappointing – quite so in financials. No matter how well MSFT and GOOG would do next week, they are to be balanced by META, with AMZN being the wildcard. Thursday‘s AAPL is arguably the best bearish catalyst out there next week, and before its time comes, we may have to deal with fake (or real) breakout attempts of the key zone mentioned right below, making it sensible to marginally adjust the stop-loss in place.Technically for S&P 500, unless the 3,795 – 3,810 zone is broken, the bears hold the upper hand. The appearing cracks, the financial stress in the system as shown in CDS or USD swap facilities being drawn, would hold the upper hand in this headline sensitive risk-on rally that‘s trying to front run the Fed without evidence that the Fed is actually at least pausing. That would prove the (otherwise seasonally justified rally‘s) undoing, with more pain to come early 2023.I‘m covering the impact on precious metals and commodities in the rich chart section – suffice to say that the former appear to have made quite a turn Friday while oil would keep grinding higher, and copper recovering while cryptos are to continues sideways for now. These moves are as much about the Fed and the dollar as about inflation whose core components aren‘t rolling over really.Today‘s analysis has been one of those extensive ones – keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersIt‘s not only about the steep rise in volume, but about the miners confirming both on a daily basis and since early Sep. First it‘ll be silver, then gold with miners who would turn – we‘re close to the opening stage in the upswing, but not there yet unless the Fed nears its pause. Too early yet to talk about PMs decoupling.Crude OilCrude oil is well bid, won‘t decline more no matter what‘s going on with the SPR. Oil stocks outperformance demonstrates that beneath the surface, all is well for crude oil investors – the era of constricted supply will be increasingly more having the upper hand over the quarters and years ahead as exploration and drilling are lagging behind, not to mention geopolitics.CopperCopper upswing is done basing as much as precious metals are – it‘ll keep basing with an upward bias, rewarding patient investors.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain on guard, but the technical posture is improving. Not yet time to jump in, but the dips are being bought, providing more than a range play opportunity to the patient ones.
Choppy But Bearish

Choppy But Bearish

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.10.2022 15:04
S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities. Crypto is also cautious here, so there is no reason to change my medium-term prognosis for any asset class based on yesterday‘s session. Moreover, the SNAP earnings disappointed stocks, and coupled with (politely stated) mixed and weakening economic data yesterday, fueled the premarket decline that‘s likely not to be invalidated by the choppy action we‘re seeing in stocks still before the opening bell.This is still the time to be patient while the odds continue favoring the bears medium-term. I‘ll supplement today‘s analysis with more analytical guidance over the weekend – have a great one in advance.The levels to watch today is 3,680 for resistance, and (probably not today, but in the days ahead only) 3,595 for support. Support that‘s likely to be eventually broken because the selling pressure isn‘t slowing down materially, and bonds with the dollar continue turning up the heat.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Slowing Down, Slowing Down

Slowing Down, Slowing Down

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.10.2022 16:01
S&P 500 turned decisively lower yesterday, and the bulls were clearly rejected with their upswing attempt. No matter how HYG erased some of its intraday decline before the closing bell, TLT is still falling hard. As stated weeks ago, without stabilization on the long end of the curve, any (temporarily but still) sustainable S&P 500 rally is inconceivable. So, no Q4 rally just yet.The yesterday telegraphed key economic data came in mixed, but is leaning bearish, bearish for the real economy. Manufacturing looks slowing down, and while unemployment claims retreated on a week to week basis, I don‘t trust that – the job market would feel the heat of slowing economy and earnings (no, the reasonably OK TSLA earnings won‘t save the day, we‘re going below $200 EPS for S&P 500 if not $180s).So, stocks are set up for another day in the red, but moving at least two dozen points below the hardy 3,680 level is required to declare the bears as in the clear. Odds are we get there today with the action I am seeing in bonds.As stated yesterday:(…) Treasuries show no sign of calming down – the parabolic move in yields doesn‘t look to be over, the 10-y yield is already 4.10% premarket, and that means significant risk-off headwinds today. My key 3,735 level had been decisively broken, and the bears are in the driver‘s seat. Certainly, the NXLF earnings jubilation being sold hard and fast on second thoughts concerning revenue and guidance, is a welcome sight confronting the barrage of fresh uberbullish calls from elsewhere meeting reality.So, the S&P 500 relief rally is duly reversing, and it wasn‘t a move to get excited about – my key 3,795-3,810 zone didn‘t come into jeopardy. On the flip side, real assets are suffering as it‘s all again about yields and the dollar. Much is happening beneath the surface – the Fed swap lines providing other central banks with USD liquidity, is seeing quite some interest on a weekly basis, and I‘m not talking Switzerland and Credit Suisse only here as UK shouldn‘t be forgotten.Crude oil is better placed than gold so far, where nominal and real rates are biting (it‘s the same what‘s powering banking), but I still stand by the call of silver squeeze approaching, just give it 3-4 miliion oz max more to be removed, and the tide is to turn. The intraday reprieve in the dollar (counterintuitive given the rise in yields), is helping real assets today, and the corona quarantine length hints from China are likewise constructive. The real fireworks would come on Fed turning, or markets sensing the Fed is approaching the end of its rope, and won‘t have any other move left than to relent in the fight on inflation, and support t he economy or fix the growing cracks abroad that bear on the USA as well. Then, especially precious metals would decouple, but as I had been stating for months with respect to gold especially, the heat is on for now.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Bears in Command

Bears in Command

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.10.2022 15:43
S&P 500 had arguably made a local top – formed a black body candle with sizable lower knot, which I‘m looking to get follow through selling today, and on tomorrow‘s set of (likely disappointing) economic data:(…) Thursday‘s Philly Fed data is likely to surprise on the downside, housing would continue to cool, and unemployment claims to rise – these are all leading or coincident indicators while CPI is a lagging one. Hard to derive any other conclusion that the Fed would overdo it on tightening (by looking into this rear view mirror, in the steepest pace of monetary policy change since the mid 1990s). Even if they were to pause now, the effects of tightening already in would take 12 months at least to manifest in full. Hard landing is virtually baked in the cake as the Fed is less sensitive to asset price gyrations than it was in Dec 2018.This is why I can‘t be bullish at this stage, not when I see bonds pressuring the Fed to do more, when bonds are still disregarding the weakening real economy – Thursday‘s data would be the revealing catalyst of how far this relief rally off the CPI Thursday got ahead of itself.And Treasuries show no sign of calming down – the parabolic move in yields doesn‘t look to be over, the 10-y yield is already 4.10% premarket, and that means significant risk-off headwinds today. My key 3,735 level had been decisively broken, and the bears are in the driver‘s seat. Certainly, the NXLF earnings jubilation being sold hard and fast on second thoughts concerning revenue and guidance, is a welcome sight confronting the barrage of fresh uberbullish calls from elsewhere meeting reality.So, the S&P 500 relief rally is duly reversing, and it wasn‘t a move to get excited about – my key 3,795-3,810 zone didn‘t come into jeopardy. On the flip side, real assets are suffering as it‘s all again about yields and the dollar. Much is happening beneath the surface – the Fed swap lines providing other central banks with USD liquidity, is seeing quite some interest on a weekly basis, and I‘m not talking Switzerland and Credit Suisse only here as UK shouldn‘t be forgotten.Crude oil is better placed than gold so far, where nominal and real rates are biting (it‘s the same what‘s powering banking), but I still stand by the call of silver squeeze approaching, just give it 3-4 miliion oz max more to be removed, and the tide is to turn. For now, the universal rise in yields (both long and short end) is taking its toll as the Fed isn‘t blinking. Told you it wouldn‘t – not this fast.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Meeting Resistance

Meeting Resistance

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.10.2022 15:56
S&P 500 reversed Friday‘s decline, closing below 3,680 – the session was relatively tame, and it was the banking earnings that were instrumental in extending gains aftermarket. Little wonder with such yield spreads – even Cramer then called financials the new stars. While bonds were risk-on, outside markets can‘t be considered as nodding to this S&P 500 rally. Long-dated yields are still rising, and the HYG upswing is likely to run into the Fed still to tighten significantly in Nov and Dec bets as the short end of the curve shows.Also, far from all earnings ahead this week would allow for such risk taking appetite. Baltic Dry Index is having trouble rising further, and that reflects weaker retail demand ahead. While the consumer is still strong for now, my yesterday‘s thoughts as to earnings and sectoral strength, still apply:(…) there are still some bright spots in earnings ahead – the tech midcaps seem to be improving, financials didn‘t have a poor week – but above all, healthcare isn‘t looking bad at all. Energy stocks are still on fire, and will be even more. It would be the defensives (utilities and consumer staples) together with communications, that would be lagging ahead.The S&P 500 relief rally hasn‘t yet reversed, but it‘s hard to get excited about it unless it breaks 3,795-3,810 zone with conviction and confirmation. Bonds look very extended in the risk-on direction, and neither commodities nor precious metals exhibit the same risk appetite, not in the least. While VIX can (and will based on today‘s move) move lower, I favor more selling to appear as we approach the above meaningful resistance zone – put to call ratio is getting to complacent levels slowly but surely.Thursday‘s Philly Fed data is likely to surprise on the downide, housing would continue to cool, and unemployment claims to rise – these are all leading or coincident indicators while CPI is a lagging one. Hard to derive any other conclusion that the Fed would overdo it on tightening (by looking into this rear view mirror, in the steepest pace of monetary policy change since the mid 1990s). Even if they were to pause now, the effects of tightening already in would take 12 months at least to manifest in full. Hard landing is virtually baked in the cake as the Fed is less sensitive to asset price gyrations than it was in Dec 2018.This is why I can‘t be bullish at this stage, not when I see bonds pressuring the Fed to do more, when bonds are still disregarding the weakening real economy – Thursday‘s data would be the revealing catalyst of how far this relief rally off the CPI Thursday got ahead of itself.Precious metals and commodities are in the process of turning, and out of them all, I am of course still most bullish oil, followed by silver (due to outperform in the not too distand future) and copper. Until though the Fed monetary policy / job market catalyst arrives, prolonged basing can be expected – inflation focus going out of the main window, is what‘s required for steep gains again.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Corrective Setback

Corrective Setback

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.10.2022 16:22
S&P 500 Friday‘s session reversed the upswing so much that it calls into question the Q4 rally as having started already. Given Friday‘s slide through both 3,640s and 3,625, Thursday‘s intraday reversal must be chalked down to pre-CPI positioning, short squeeze and options activity. It would be insightful to recap last two days so as to view them in conjuction, so let‘s start with Thursday:(…) strongly rallied after a precipitous drop to 3,500s on CPI data coming in predictably above expectations. I looked for high inflation data, and especially high core CPI data, and these played into the hawkish Fed expectations, further strengthening them as the short end of the curve reveals.The selling pressure though stalled, and the modest rebound that could have rolled over in the 3,560s as I indicated was a good place for it to happen, didn‘t materialize. The sellers were swiftly overpowered, and an hour later I declared that attempt as failed, with buyers moving in quickly. Two hours after that, I talked bullish bias into the closing bell, aftermarket and premarket. S&P 500 has made good progress since, reaching 70+ points higher after the original bullish call.The ease with which supports Friday had been broken through, that HYG wasn‘t able to defend high ground better, and that the long end of the curve hasn‘t yet stabilized, speaks for more downside this week – before the rebound off even more oversold levels happens.The question is how deep we then have to go still.My opinion is less than 5% from Friday‘s close, but probably somewhat below, meaning that 3,500s would be broken after all.I‘m not raising the S&P 500 earnings per share, and the picture valuations and earnings downgrades ahead paint. Consumer is still doing relatively fine, the real economy hasn‘t dipped into a serious recession, and there are still some bright spots in earnings ahead – the tech midcaps seem to be improving, financials didn‘t have a poor week – but above all, healthcare isn‘t looking bad at all. Energy stocks are still on fire, and will be even more. It would be the defensives (utilities and consumer staples) together with communications, that would be lagging ahead.As Thursday‘s technical posture disappointed in bringing about more than a fleeting turnaround, what could prove to be such a catalyst fundamentally? Fed pivot or pause? Not near in the least. Job market data leading to speculation of a Fed pause? Wordy language that gives a dint of pivot hope without actually uttering any (Brainard or even Yellen‘s question to the financial sector)? Possibly, but not enough. Focus on slowing real economy as opposed to inflation? Yes, this is a very likely, favorite pick of mine.Precious metals and commodities are in the process of turning, and out of them all, I am of course still most bullish oil, followed by silver (due to outperform in the not too distand future) and copper. As Friday‘s performance including in cryptos shows though, the path ahead isn‘t all clear (just look at gold and miners approaching Sep lows – nominal and real rates are biting), and the dollar I have called as not to have topped, clearly hasn‘t topped – and will continue placing pressure on real assets as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 looks set to revisit Thursday‘s lows, and more – no matter the quite fine earnings last week from PEP or more than a couple of financials. While soft landing is out of the window, hard landing isn‘t here yet, and market breadth readings are quite extreme.Credit MarketsEven though HYG may easily attack Friday‘s open, it isn‘t likely out of the woods yet. Unless quality debt instruments stabilize, stock market rallies are suspect. The upcoming Q4 one would be accompanied by a decent retreat in yields, which would mirror the shift in focus from inflation to recession that I called above as the most likely turnaround catalyst.
Ringing the Bell - 14.10.2022

Ringing the Bell - 14.10.2022

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.10.2022 16:06
S&P 500 strongly rallied after a precipitous drop to 3,500s on CPI data coming in predictably above expectations. I looked for high inflation data, and especially high core CPI data, and these played into the hawkish Fed expectations, further strengthening them as the short end of the curve reveals.The selling pressure though stalled, and the modest rebound that could have rolled over in the 3,560s as I indicated was a good place for it to happen, didn‘t materialize. The sellers were swiftly overpowered, and an hour later I declared that attempt as failed, with buyers moving in quickly. Two hours after that, I talked bullish bias into the closing bell, aftermarket and premarket. S&P 500 has made good progress since, reaching 70+ points higher after the original bullish call.Could this be the start of the Q4 rally pinned to start on CPI figures the preceding Monday?The technicals and seasonals would support that, the S&P 500 chart offered signs of bottoming – I had been talking about the conditions for a rally being in place, and that now it would be only about whether they get acted upon or not.And in spite of the bond market performance yesterday, it appears to be the case. Or precisely because of the performance, because of the intraday dynamics – HYG sharply recovered the opening setback, mirroring that S&P 500 upswing. It‘s not an issue that Nasdaq lagged a little – the cyclicals did well, it‘s sectorally apparent that bullish spirits have come back yesterday.I‘m indeed leaning towards this being the real Q4 rally start – still a bear market rally that would fail, but would be lasting enough to build confidence on par with the failed summer rally as I talked Monday. Daily consolidation with decent bullish bias to be seen Friday as the still okay retail data hint at, would be a welcome sight as fresh longs would enter the market. Not even the strong upswing in the dollar today is an issue – look how fine cryptos are shaking it off, and precious metals would be next in line to do so. Silver is bidding its time, but we‘re slowly approaching a sizable rally in the white metal starting. Copper is doing very fine, the yesterday opened long position is in the black already, and has turned the corner too.Crude oil is for now consolidating around the 50-day moving average, and the $92 resistance awaits – it will be easily overcome once the dollar pauses on a daily basis, but I agree that yesterday‘s WTIC upswing on low volume hints at that to happen probably not in the very opening part of next week. The nice rounded bottom with a fake breakdown is over, and black gold is climbing higher now again, slowly but surely – with natgas still bullish as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
On Guard

On Guard

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.10.2022 14:10
S&P 500 bears managed to push prices down on declining volume, and the risk-on upswing in bonds was dialed back. VIX remains elevated while the put to call ratio didn‘t point to rising fear yesterday, and the dollar made no progress while long-dated yields retreated. These are all signs of caution, and do not invalidate my fundamental thesis of seeing stocks potentially spike up on CPI before the still tightening Fed reality sets in again – as described in the below quote from yesterday‘s analysis. The only fly in the ointment is that today‘s premarket didn‘t offer advance clues as to which way the wind is blowing immediately before the CPI data release:(…) I‘m expecting a sticky CPI and core CPI figure tomorrow – given the price action so far, any potentially positive initial market reaction would be sold into. True, I‘m not looking for such a low CPI figure that would facilitate lasting gains – the sideways trading witnessed currently favors the bears assuming initiative tomorrow. Unless we very decisively close above my 3,635 level with outside markets confirming (unlikely to happen) – if so, I would definitely tweet about that.The real assets premarket upswing is bucked by cryptos plunging, so the picture with respect to CPI is inconclusive here as well. I‘ll keep updating you throughout the day if any change is posture or positioning is warranted based on the market reaction with Fed tightening reassessment.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
PPI Preview for Stocks

PPI Preview for Stocks

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.10.2022 15:19
S&P 500 bears couldn‘t maintain the momentum, and the buyers pulled off a fake breakout. As much as it was supported by bonds, these gave up both their intraday gains and risk-on posture in what bears hallmarks of a first refusal to go up. Not that I would be expecting any sizable upswing today, the 3,620s would provide first (easy to overcome) level of resistance. This would be tested on the initial PPI reaction – it‘s likely that stocks would try to interpret it in a bullish way before realizing that tomorrow‘s CPI is what matters more to the Fed really.Given though the 0.4% m/m PPI and the core and y/y PPI figures balancing themselves out, stocks are obliging to the downside, which makes a fake breakout later today an increasingly moot proposition. Therefore, today is likely to bring only modest initial appreciation struggle at best – one that would be countered during the regular session. Choppy day where any upswing would be of fleeting nature as long-dated Treasuries haven‘t kept promising intraday gains, making their stabilization still suspect. The short end of the curve still reflects hawkish Fed rhetoric and expectations – and isn‘t front running the BoE moves as regards the Fed in the least.I‘m expecting a sticky CPI and core CPI figure tomorrow – given the price action so far, any potentially positive initial market reaction would be sold into. True, I‘m not looking for such a low CPI figure that would facilitate lasting gains – the sideways trading witnessed currently favors the bears assuming initiative tomorrow. Unless we very decisively close above my 3,635 level with outside markets confirming (unlikely to happen) – if so, I would definitely tweet about that.Precious metals and miners‘ reversals are gently tipping the scales in the bearish direction when it comes to tomorrow. Silver and copper confirming each other on a daily basis today premarket – that‘s not a bullish sign. No matter the COMEX supplies status, silver isn‘t starting a sizable rally this week, but it‘s brewing. Remember that the white metal is a byproduct of mining for other base metals, and copper inventories aren‘t really high either.Crude oil is likely to keep turning up – the recent shallow, flag-like correction on the daily chart is close to over, and oil stocks keep their distinct bullish posture as well. Cryptos are basing for now, unwilling to sharply move up – Monday‘s muddle through prediction for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the nearest sessions, is still playing out.Let‘s bring up the key parting paragraph of yesterday‘s analysis:(…) That‘s the key to any sustainable S&P 500 rally – calm in the bond markets, and end of the parabolic rise in yields. Too many moving parts though as to what kind of Q4 rally that would translate to. In such an environment, real assets are least vulnerable, and would take to any tightening pause in the kindest manner.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Still Elusive Rebound

Still Elusive Rebound

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.10.2022 16:16
S&P 500 obliged to the downside as reasonably fine NFPs brought back the justified bets on the Fed hiking yet again by 75bp in Nov, and by 50bp in Dec, which is in line with the Daly and Kashkari consistent utterances. That‘s right, as I told you on Tuesday in the article Fed Turn That Wasn‘t, Evans is still a lone dovish voice no matter the tightening cracks emerging overseas. After the opening bell, the selling pressure picked up, and kept delivering us, reasoned and patient traders, deserved open shorts profits.That serves as key confirmation of the bears being firmly in the short-term driving seat, of markets not yet even thinking about positioning for Thursday‘s CPI data, which could bring about noticeable relief to both stocks and bonds – possibly in spite of core CPI, which I‘m looking for to come in really, really weak (meaning uncomfortably high) – that‘s an important distinction for future inflation path as e.g. core PCE excludes food and energy (both of which relented lately), and it would preclude the Fed‘s models from pausing the fight against inflation.Sure, the lagging NFPs indicator brought in signs of internal job market deterioration – look at unemployment rate and participation – but the Fed would keep on tightening nonetheless. And that‘s what markets realized again Friday – long-dated yields are again surging as TLT is back at Sep lows. Hardly a conducive sign for stock market rally – I told you lately that Treasuries need to at least stabilize (if not turn noticeably up) as a precondition for the anticipated Q4 S&P 500 rally – the one that isn‘t here yet. With the bond market closed today on Columbus Day, I‘m looking for less reliable trading performance interpretation when it comes to stocks, i.e. I wouldn‘t read too much into downswings and upswings intraday, and would try to view them in light of the dollar performance chiefly.Today‘s analysis has been one of those extensive ones – keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, and additional commentary on real assets in the opening section.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 path of least resistance remains down – yet another rally attempt failed last week. Still, we haven‘t seen a true capitulation, and trading in the days preceding CPI would be telling as to the Q4 rally timing and its late Oct potential.Credit MarketsI‘m not yet drawing anyone‘s attention to the possible divergence in progress (HYG at much higher levels), because TLT hasn‘t yet found the bottom. Bonds are still risk-off, pointing bearish for stocks.
Really No Pivot

Really No Pivot

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.10.2022 16:03
S&P 500 was again rejected on the upside, closing near the bottom of my 3,770s – 3,720s range aka no-man‘s land amid weakening bonds – weakening, but not yet considerably weak. The dollar though is solidly back in the upswing mode as long-dated Treasuries are flirting with the recent lows again. And that‘s especially concerning to the extended Nasdaq.Let‘s bring up yesterday‘s thoughts:(…) I‘m looking for still reasonably good non-farm payrolls tomorrow, which would:(…) thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.What I would like to see (if the bears still have the upper hand, if the Q4 rally hasn‘t started already), is dialing back of the current risk-on sentiment in anticipation of the above paragraph outcome. If that doesn‘t happen to a meaningful degree in stocks and outside markets during today‘s session, then my hypothesis of an S&P 500 decline below the open short position‘s entry points, is toast. Given the above NFPs dynamics, I‘m willing to let the market prove me right or wrong tomorrow. The other open trades make up for that on the long side amply.(…) market reaction I anticipate tomorrow, … is bonds down, stocks down, dollar up. By the way, cryptos are also firming here, which as positive as the precious metals performance.How is that turning out as we speak?The pre-NFPs hesitation confirmed with more clues right before the data release – and the reasonably positive job creation and unemployment rate figures ushered in fireworks for the bears. What felt like a waterboarding week, is drawing to a fine close – I‘m looking for the selling pressure to pick up somewhat still, and for a close decisively below 3,720s. Bonds yields and the dollar would confirm the weakness, pressuring tech and also cyclicals. VIX would rise, but not to panic levels while cryptos and real assets with the exception of crude oil, retreat modestly.Let‘s see first bears overpowering any buy the dip right after the open.I‘ll be updating you through the day as we go – happy weekend in advance!Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.10.2022 15:28
S&P 500 jubilation continued yet another day, but not after repelling some serious downside first. The bears didn‘t meet my key objective of breaking below 3,720s – but bonds weren‘t shining either. Animal spirits were powered by the intraday retreat of the dollar giving up a third of its gains. So, stocks closed in the proximity of where they had been rejected on Tuesday – the low 3,800s – leaving the bears high and dry. And in danger as I‘m looking for still reasonably good non-farm payrolls tomorrow, which would:(…) thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.What I would like to see (if the bears still have the upper hand, if the Q4 rally hasn‘t started already), is dialing back of the current risk-on sentiment in anticipation of the above paragraph‘s outcome. If that doesn‘t happen to a telling degree in stocks and outside markets during today‘s session, then my hypothesis of an S&P 500 decline below the open short position‘s entry points, is toast. Given the above NFPs dynamics, I‘m willing to let the market prove me right or wrong tomorrow. The other open trades make up for that on the long side amply.Thus far, stocks are in no-man‘s land between 3,720s and 3,770s, and these same supports and resistances (low 3,800s till 3,820) apply. Today is shaping up to be a relatively calm day in bonds, with commodities barely appreciating – unlike gold and silver, where I‘m looking for daily gains to be slightly more significant than in the CRB Index. This would also increase probability of the market reaction I anticipate tomorrow, which is bonds down, stocks down, dollar up.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
False Dawn Or Not - 05.10.2022

False Dawn Or Not - 05.10.2022

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.10.2022 16:16
S&P 500 jubilation continued yesterday, and markets didn‘t really notice Fed‘s Williams throwing cold water on giving up the fight against inflation prematurely. The excessive moves in USD retreat well below 111.50 throughout yesterday, and plunge in Treasury yields combined with very risk-on posture in junk corporate bonds, provided daily continuation of Monday‘s momentum (the bear trap having characteristics of a short squeeze), with real assets beyond oil amplifying the growing risk appetite. At the same time though, VIX didn‘t sharply retreat – 29 is not plunge target to speak of, which demonstrates to some degree a fragile nature of this two day upswing. Remember the title of yesterday‘s article (Fed Turn That Wasn‘t) and the caution in evaluation of the upswing prospects I called for back then:(…) with a lag, markets are forcing the Fed‘s hand – there has been no catalyst for yesterday‘s broad-based upswing, yet every asset class is acting as if Powell already pivoted – or paused, as it could be euphemistically called too. The Fed isn‘t yet wobbling in its determination, no shoe has dropped that would force it to reverse course. Markets are only acting as if the Fed already folded, and as I wrote yesterday, are assigning lower probability to steep hikes in Nov and Dec than was the case two weeks ago – but there hasn‘t been a crisis that would force the Fed to blink.That crisis would of course happen abroad, not in the States – there are plenty of European banking concerns as evidence in rising CDS, sovereign yields, energy crisis, slowing manufacturing, slowing consumer demand, housing, and of course strong inflation data abroad, which the strong dollar helps to offload elsewhere. The tail risks are high – no matter the markets acting as if they were over already, as if the Fed backed off as a result – as much as markets are forward looking, that isn‘t isn‘t guaranteed to happen soon.Could this be the start of the Q4 rally I called for yesterday to arrive rather in 5-7 sessions instead? Hard to say now as yields would have to follow lower still (think the 10-year breaking conclusively below 3.50%), and the dollar would have to make a lower low. We‘re in no man‘s land currently, and should the rally progress with similar momentum today as was the case yesterday, without any bearish divergencies such as bonds unable to rally (risk-on mode), real assets no longer amplifying the S&P 500 upswing, appear during today‘s regular session, then the bears are in a serious short-term trouble.For now, I‘m still leaning towards the stock market advance at least stalling, and starting to form bearish divergencies – the rally of the last 36+ hrs has been excessive, broadening, and can be called a stampede. Now, it‘s up to the herd to stop, and realize that it hadn‘t run on any good reason. All it takes is Powell & co not folding immediately – it‘s my view that just as it took the markets longer to force the Fed to raise, it‘ll take a while to force the Fed to relent. The only and real question is whether that happens still this year, or only in 2023.The premarket series of tweets shining light on the overnight happenings, describes that well. While we haven‘t seen a bearish stampede reversing the prior excessive moves, Williams not blinking would make the markets realize that inflation fighting is still on. It‘s up to ECB and not the Fed to see their bluff called first anyway. So far, we‘re seeing an orderly correction in stocks after 3,770s were broken, and commodities not outpacing the declines in non-USD currencies and Treasuries. Today‘s objective for the bears is to decisively break below 3,720s if they are serious about downside acceleration.While the real economy is slowing, the Wednesday‘s part of non-farm payrolls data (lagging indicator, remember this is a lagging indicator) isn‘t obviously going to reflect the recessionary fears, and would thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.The fate of the Q4 alleged start is being decided this week.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Fed Turn That Wasn't

Fed Turn That Wasn't

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.10.2022 15:44
S&P 500 didn‘t look back at Monday‘s lows, bonds were pushing higher while the dollar retreated to my 111.50 support before stabilizing. Also junk bonds had trouble extending gains in the latter half of yesterday‘s session while long-dated Treasuries retreated intraday to a more neutral (practically doji) close. While bonds hesitated, commodities and especially precious metals did well – the turn looks here as silver with gold are looking at which other central bank‘s bluff would be called the way Bank of England‘s was, forcing UK to do an about-face, and exchange fighting inflation with (allegedly temporary) unlimited money printing to support gilts and pound.And with a lag, markets are forcing the Fed‘s hand – there has been no catalyst for yesterday‘s broad-based upswing, yet every asset class is acting as if Powell already pivoted – or paused, as it could be euphemistically called too. The Fed isn‘t yet wobbling in its determination, no shoe has dropped that would force it to reverse course. Markets are only acting as if the Fed already folded, and as I wrote yesterday, are assigning lower probability to steep hikes in Nov and Dec than was the case two weeks ago – but there hasn‘t been a crisis that would force the Fed to blink.That crisis would of course happen abroad, not in the States – there are plenty of European banking concerns as evidence in rising CDS, sovereign yields, energy crisis, slowing manufacturing, slowing consumer demand, housing, and of course strong inflation data abroad, which the strong dollar helps to offload elsewhere. The tail risks are high – no matter the markets acting as if they were over already, as if the Fed backed off as a result – as much as markets are forward looking, that isn‘t isn‘t guaranteed to happen soon.Could this be the start of the Q4 rally I called for yesterday to arrive rather in 5-7 sessions instead? Hard to say now as yields would have to follow lower still (think the 10-year breaking conclusively below 3.50%), and the dollar would have to make a lower low. We‘re in no man‘s land currently, and should the rally progress with similar momentum today as was the case yesterday, without any bearish divergencies such as bonds unable to rally (risk-on mode), real assets no longer amplifying the S&P 500 upswing, appear during today‘s regular session, then the bears are in a serious short-term trouble.For now, I‘m still leaning towards the stock market advance at least stalling, and starting to form bearish divergencies – the rally of the last 36+ hrs has been excessive, broadening, and can be called a stampede. Now, it‘s up to the herd to stop, and realize that it hadn‘t run on any good reason. All it takes is Powell & co not folding immediately – it‘s my view that just as it took the markets longer to force the Fed to raise, it‘ll take a while to force the Fed to relent. The only and real question is whether that happens still this year, or only in 2023.Again, keeping my eyes chiefly on the dollar and long-dated bonds today – risk sentiment in junk bonds should tip the bulls‘ hands among the first signs – the tone of the session would be set within 60 min after the opening bell, but those bearish divergences might get formed only in the second half of the regular session.
SPX Bottom Near?

SPX Bottom Near?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.10.2022 09:09
S&P 500 reversed to the downside on high volume, and the open short position became profitable from the get-go. No matter the premarket jubilation driven by retreat in bond yields, the bottom is clearly not yet in, and it‘s a matter of both technicals and hawkish monetary policy guidance. The bets on the Fed to back off tightening and go at least neutral, appear very premature – the plan is still to raise by 75bp in Nov and by 50bp in Dec with 25bp more early 2023, and Evans saying in effect the central bank is moving too fast without appreciating the effects of tightening already in, is a lone voice. Now, if I were to hear noises suggesting only 50bp in Nov or 25bp in Dec, that would change the picture.For now though, the tightening is felt mostly abroad, driving the surge in the dollar and associated Treasury sales by foreigners who need to support their currencies / make commodity purchases in dollars from Europe, UK to China and Japan. The Fed shrinking its balance sheet thus puts additional strain on long-dated yields which haven‘t yet found a bottom as I‘ve argued in prior Monday‘s extensive analysis. The BoE intervention jubilation proved short-lived, and even if the dollar is in corrective mode, it didn‘t trigger a lasting rebound in either stocks or bonds.This could (and in my opinion would) change on the upcoming CPI next Thursday (13th), which would signal to the Fed that inflation is somewhat down (signs of a peak) – a nice Q4 rally in stocks and bonds can develop, but it won‘t be sustainable or lasting just like the summer rally wasn‘t. No matter the bad PCE deflator data (remember that the core figure excludes food and energy), the probability of the Fed maintaining its highly restrictive course, went actually down on a week-to-week basis – the worry clearly is that the Fed is approaching the moment when it breaks something (i.e. the tightening cure is starting to get heavier on negative effects than inflation / inflation fear itself in market‘s mind), and the good unemployment claims show that it won‘t be breaking in the States. This also helps explain the late week precious metals resiliency.The direction in stocks until the reprieve later in Oct, is though down, and the downside risks are accentuated – but what would facilitate the upcoming rally? Stabilization in yields at the long end of the curve is a precondition, and that‘s when some bullish divergencies and weakening selling pressure in stocks would be seen. The conditions for a rebound are slowly materializing (including VIX making lower highs), and it‘s up to the buyers to act on them as Oct draws to its close. That would be the good finish to the year (Santa Claus rally) before the worldwide recessionary winds stiffen next year.Remember that it takes easily a year for the rate raising effects to play out, and this tightening pace was fastest since the mid 1990s when Greenspan took Fed funds rate from 3% to 6% - and we‘re hearing Mester still say that the current one (4.5% Fed funds rate at year end is projected by the way) isn‘t yet restrictive, and I told you last week about their plans to keep it at a slightly restrictive level for a longer time in a bid to avoid tipping the economy into recession.This has obviously negative implications for commodities, which wouldn‘t thrive in an economic decline the way precious metals would. This concerns even crude oil facing modest headwinds – but not of the copper magnitude. A period of instability in the markets is upon us shortly, and it‘ll play itself out in currencies and sovereign bonds first of all, affecting the rest of the asset classes next.Today‘s analysis has been one of those extensive ones – keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is likely to keep doing better than gold, the physical market suggests still. Crucially, miners are hinting at ongoing accumulation – the heavy volume and miners to gold ratio are promising even though the metals themselves haven‘t yet reacted much.Crude OilCrude oil still has a fine opportunity to rise on the real economy not deteriorating too badly (no matter order cancellations and inventory build ups beyond WMT or NKE – there simply isn‘t evidence of crude oil demand destruction in the States). Demand from China, end of SPR drawdowns and onset of winter season remain the wildcards and bullish arguments that are balanced out against weakening real economies around the world – the hypothesis of a nice rounded bottom in WTIC being carved out, is still in play – and further supported by the Oct 05 OPEC+ meeting where 1mln barrels a day production cut could be agreed. Oil stocks though are to weather the storms stretching to 2023.CopperCopper upswing appears to be sold into, and coinciding with the upcoming instability in stocks and bonds. The consolidation is receiving bearish undertones.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t surging really on the premarket retreat in yields, volume isn‘t swinging too much higher either. Until the bears reappear, Bricoin and Ethereum would muddle through, lagging behind stocks in appreciation on a daily basis (as regards today).
Daily Turn or More

Daily Turn or More

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.09.2022 16:12
S&P 500 turned on a dime, and the daily rally turned out indeed one to chase. It‘s as if the BoE stepping in had the power to bring about a similar Fed turn – it obviously doesn‘t, and one swallow doesn‘t make a spring. Still, the move ushered in celebration in the beaten down assets – from real to paper. As I wrote on Tuesday:(…) The bouts of risk-on spurred by any dollar retreats (no matter how modest) are likely though to disproportionately power real assets up after their latest beating (think a decent retracement) together with cryptos rather than stocks – and I mean chiefly cyclicals. Oil is to remain the main winner here. The key event to watch remains solid bid materializing in long-dated Treasuries – we aren‘t quite there yet. Summing up, the stock market bear isn‘t over, and I am looking for Jun lows to break, especially on more confirmation that the U.S. can‘t really avoid hard landing.Given the jubilation in bonds (long-dated Treasuries finally caught a bid), it‘s reasonable to expect that the bulls won‘t give up this easily – so far, we‘re getting the consolidation, right in the premarket, and it‘s accompanied by a decent but not stellar USD comeback. That makes for a little muddied picture of today‘s regular session, where the bulls are likely to struggle at yesterday‘s intraday highs (if they can get there today at all). Squaring the bets before tomorrow‘s PCE deflator data while commodities rather than precious metals mostly keep their Wednesday‘s gains, seems most probable action for today – yesterday‘s long SPX profits had been cashed in before the decline anyway.Let me feature an interesting question I got yesterday about dividend stocks – really interesting for those of you looking for promising, long-term vehicles of capital preservation and decent growth.Q: Of the large-cap growth names, what are your thoughts on e.g. Microsoft, APPLE, Google, Amazon, and even Verizon or AT&T long term? For us Baby Boomers, aren‘t they risky now in light of the macro climate ? Or do you think it makes sense to barbell these names with the dividend stocks such as PEP and ? For a 5-10 year horizon.A: As for the tickers mentioned, I understandably like CVX, PEP, KO, and of course XOM, SLB and PG. I don't like certain parts of JNJ business, and think telecoms are to underperform (VZ, T). I think you would do better with energy than with tech in the years ahead, and within a few short months with mining stocks too. Energy is to turn within 4 weeks latest (it did nicely already yesterday) while miners' better times would come in 2023 (I am not sounding all clear on them just yet - it's good that $1,610 in gold held).The key in your due diligence is to look for companies that have proven track record of raising dividends like clockwork over the past say at least 3 years. They also must be in industries which face bright prospects, and I mean essential resources (and agricultural stocks) including oil as well.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily reprieve that must get follow through – otherwise this S&P 500 rebound is suspect. Thus far, the bulls have the benefit of short-term doubt, but the resistance level mentioned in the opening part, applies.Credit MarketsBonds rose, finally catching a solid bid – the TLT turn is especially significant, and must be maintained as part of the bottoming process in stocks. Just as in the preceding weeks and months, first cracks in the dam are likely to be seen here first (alongside the dollar of course).
All Eyes on Long-Dated Treasuries

All Eyes on Long-Dated Treasuries

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.09.2022 16:16
S&P 500 yet again kept declining through the day, and Treasuries offered a bleak sight till shortly before the close when long-dated ones turned finally higher – and both tech and value followed suit. Nothing spectacular, Jun lows in S&P 500 were tested (and in the Russell 2000 nearly touched) – 50 points late day reversal doesn‘t signify anything as we haven‘t reached THE low yet in my view. It‘s not about plain stock market seasonality where the very beginning of October is rife with heavy selling – it‘s that markets Friday sold off as no hint of a rescue from Powell came about during his brief speech. The Pavlovian dogs were disappointed.There is further evidence that the current downleg is rather orderly, and not reaching any panicky levels whatsoever. Apart from VIX keeping even above 30 only, it‘s the relationship between stock prices and the CNN Fear and Greed Index (chart courtesy of MacroMicro):See for yourself how bullish the sentiment was while we were running to the 200-day moving average, and how complacent it is now as relates to the S&P 500 prices – remember this while hearing elsewhere about any triple digit uplegs. The bear hasn‘t run its course, and we‘ve taken the most bearish route shown in my mid Aug refutal of bull market thesis. It‘s my view that the nearest weeks won‘t be too easy, and that I don‘t see too much respite in stocks. The (comparatively shallow) rips are to be sold.As I wrote in Friday‘s concise yet important article on bonds, the question of a peak in long-dated Treasury yields is the key one. As the Fed has vacated the market and foreign buyers aren‘t exactly aggressively buying (the trade balances have reversed for both Europe and Japan, while Russia and China have their sights elsewhere), it‘s up to instituitional and retail investors to snap up any bargains. These would be of course driven by real economy evidently entering recession – we aren‘t quite there yet, but there is progress as spelled out a week ago. The idea is that deteriorating real economy prospects would not only get reflected in decrease in long-dated yields, but over time also cut short Fed tightening through providing it with cover to get at least neutral if not somewhat accommodative again, no matter the stage of its fight against the sticky inflation (which the central bank would lose after making meaningful progress throughout this winter). This ties in well with the recent question I got:Q: Monica, since the 10 yr treasury has been going up, so has Fund RRPIX (Rising Rates fund). Do you see that continuing? Thanks!A: Indeed the long end of the curve (20-30y) is the key here. FOMC - yields retreated, Thursday TLT went a lot down, and was balancing on the edge on Friday. At least it recovered, for if no fresh buyers emerge to replace the Fed and foreigners, we're in for trouble. It‘s my view that over the nearest two months, we would see the long end of the curve catching a solid bid. This is tying in well with the recent peak in goods inflation, which will be shortly followed with a peak in services inflation, and that will have consequences for both rents (owners‘ equivalent rent is a third of CPI, and its peak would help the Fed get its foot off the tightening pedal) and wage inflation (small and medium enterprises aren‘t on a hiring spree exactly). This spells a peak in inflation, and facilates a turn in Fed policy several quarters down the road. For now, I‘m looking for 75bp hike in Nov and maybe 50bp in Dec, which could very well be the end of the rate raising cycle. That would be a truly restrictive level, and they want to keep it there for quite some time to avoid the 1970s mistake. The Fed probably believes that keeping rates slighly restrictive for long enough to beat inflation, will avoid tipping the economy into a recession – it remains to be seen whether either of these two propositions work out, becase the Fed would be in a pickle if during 2024 inflation would still run above say 4%..I‘m discussing the market impact of the above within the individual chart sections – rich annotations and comments – in place of upcoming shorter analyses. Where would I hide in the long-term – thinking this decade? This timeless mid April article sheds light on assets and sectors worth your attention.Keep enjoying the always lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are to sniff out the upcoming Fed turn, but their 2022 performance would continue being bleak. It‘s often the case that at the beginning of economic woes striking, both gold and silver are taking in on the chin alongise much else – just like we have seen in real assets on Friday. That‘s the result of the strong dollar upswing, and hawkish Fed (both perception and reality). Major buying opportunity approaches, but it isn‘t here quite yet – then, gold has good support at $1,610.Crude OilCrude oil fell through the $80s floor, and has quite some crawling back to do. The physical market is to provide support, which would be met by real economy performance and demand destruction fears underpinning the dollar. Black gold still needs to consolidate before launching higher in some 5 weeks max (yes, probably shortly before midterms) – or earlier if China‘s demand destruction during lockdowns returns.CopperCopper is likewise reflecting the anticipated real economy impact, but would benefit from the coming Fed‘s focus shifting to real ecconomy support (remember how fast Powell turned in early Jan 2019?), and inflation not declining much below its persistently high 5-6% YoY CPI level of Dec 2022 (still my target). It would be real assets, the commodities and precious metals superbulls, that would benefit from the Fed turning at the very least neutral (which would support selective beaten down stock sectors as well).Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to rebound today, meaning we would see retracements of Friday‘s downswings in other assets as well, accompanied by the dollar‘s intraday retreat off its daily highs, which is already playing out.
Treasuries Flashing Red

Treasuries Flashing Red

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.09.2022 16:08
S&P 500 continued its downswing without much of a respite even though bonds favored stocks to reach higher than they did one hour before the closing bell. Interestingly, VIX has barely moved in spite of the quite meaningful downside continuation – let alone the Wednesday‘s reversal that caught so many off guard. Thankfully not you!Today, we‘re already below my direction setting level described in these two tweets. USD is up, and much of the forex antidollar plays in disarray (beyond the usual suspect, Japan) – this isn‘t yet a dollar top. That‘s a consequence of Treasuries price action – no top in yields, not enough fresh buyers to make up for the vacated Fed place, is putting and will put even more serious pressure on asset prices. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today short) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is still a really bearish S&P 500 chart – not even volume is increasing on the downswing. Both cyclicals and tech are suffering, but the market generals (AAPL and beyond) have still quite some catching to do. After Wednesday, the selling is quite orderly still, no panic yet, but I am unwilling to chase prices here, this Friday – we‘re likely to see a temporary stabilization above 3,730, and quite possibly another buying spree approximately of yesterday‘s potency.Credit MarketsAs stated yesterday, bonds are risk-off, and reflecting foremost the upcoming real economy realities, the inevitable consequence of aggressive tightening while the effects of tightening already in, haven‘t yet played out. It‘s only when TLT turns that we can get some meaningful respite in stocks beyond a few days‘ counter trend upswings here and there – in the week(s) to come.
Smashing Fed Day

Smashing Fed Day

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.09.2022 16:04
S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering. In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss anything intraday.Thanks again for the overwhelming appreciation and your joy over how well my work served you (not only) yesterday!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver did indeed well in the wake of FOMC, and gold looks fairly well bid here. The bears are definitely looking tired, and the direction for the next couple of days, is modestly up in the sector.Crude OilCrude oil is looking very fine, carving out the protracted bottom before launching higher. The downtrend is simply long in the tooth.CopperCopper is also fairly well bid, and odds are it would break higher from the range mentioned in the caption.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are leading the risk asset retracement that‘s ahead, and the volume gives both Bitcoin and Ethereum a good chance of lasting through the weekend as a minimum.
Before the Drop

Before the Drop

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.09.2022 15:39
S&P 500 duly reversed as I called for it intraday to do. Not that the message from bonds or the dollar would be more optimistic really – for the bulls I mean. Whatever ground the buyers recovered yesterday, was defensive in nature as yields continue rising even on the long end of the curve. No top in yields – that‘s not a bullish message for stocks. As I have written an extensive analysis on Monday, and yesterday presented the key idea that may drive an upswing attempt that would be sold into, I‘ll concentrate on live Twitter updates around the FOMC such as this feel of the market pulse (with intraday updates on my site should trading decisions need to be updated, of course).Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver will shake off any FOMC blues easier than gold, and the direction miners take, would determine the next move in the whole sector. Miners rising could be equated to doubts about the Fed vs. soft landing as much as rising yields.Crude OilCrude oil will be least affected today (this could turn into an understatement), and not only because of the news from Eastern Europe. Looking for the upswing to slowly gather pace over the coming weeks.CopperCopper is still going sideways, and I don‘t see a deep flush as likely this week at all.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos will likely join in the temporary jubilation that‘s ahead, but will decline once the true hawkish Fed message gets acknowledged for what it is.
Fed Game Plan - 20.09.2022

Fed Game Plan - 20.09.2022

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.09.2022 15:49
S&P 500 rebound lacked volume even if internal strength didn‘t lag too badly. VIX isn‘t really declining as in trending lower, and given the big picture action in bonds (steeply inverted yield curve, with the short end in decline on account of more Fed tighteing expectations), it‘s no wonder. Any misguided FOMC rip is likely to be sold into. What can facilitate a misguided S&P 500 upswing then? Some modest relief over the pre-CPI unheard of possibility of 100bp before focus turns to further rate raising in Nov and Dec.Let‘s quote from yesterday‘s extensive analysis (and then talk individual markets within their chart context):(…) Sep FOMC is approaching, and as a result of the inflation disappointment (I told you it was to turn out sticky, it‘s service driven – and the reading refutes even the peak inflation hypothesis), bond markets started to assign some (low, but still – that‘s a major turn from last couple of weeks‘ position) probability to even a full 1% hike coming this week. The 75bp one would bring Fed funds rate to 3%, and is a very sharp reversal of the low corona era rates (too low for too long), and the risk of policy mistake is understandably very high. If anyone in the mainstream still believed in the soft landing fairy tale, it‘s probably universally clear now that the pace of the Fed tightening (and balance sheet shrinking) is to take a significant toll on the economy in the months to come. Finally, the effects of the tightening already in, haven‘t yet played out in full – and both Nov and Dec are likely to bring in more tightening.Housing is the best leading indicator, and so many metrics beyond the unsold inventory are pointing to trouble ahead spilling over into other sectors. The second key development of last week were disappointing earnings, namely FedEx missing so badly and guiding lower on claims of worldwide recession – hard to blame them if they look at Europe and hear the permanent deindustrialization warnings, or account for China‘s slowdown. Manufacturing is also about to suffer, and it‘s been my call for months that manufacturing recession is inevitable – the ISM data would confirm. Rising initial claims point to the labor market being the final one in line to deteriorate – we aren‘t quite there yet given the not too bad non-farm payrolls.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty of intraday nature gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is likely to keep doing better than gold, the physical market suggests. $1,680 support keeps holding for now, and miners finally kicked in yesterday – at least on a daily basis. Gold wouldn‘t like the Sep FOMC really much – yields are exerting pressure while inflation expectations aren‘t on fire.Crude OilCrude oil is holding firm, and will keep on doing so still – definitely among the sturdiest commodities as it carves out a nice rounded bottom – both better seasonality and SPR drawdowns ending approach.CopperCopper is still going sideways, and the range is to remain tight in reflection of not too badly deteriorating economy in the short term, and of the physical constraints balancing out against weaker prospects in economic activity as the housing data just revealed.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos confirm the stiffening headwinds – that‘s before FOMC. Thereafter, reality will catch up, but any reprieve in the dollar would help with a brief respite taking Bitcoin to $20K after the targets mentioned in the caption are achieved. I don‘t see a longer sustained upswing as likely – the crypto winter isn‘t over.
Weak Rebound, Weak

Weak Rebound, Weak

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.09.2022 15:54
S&P 500 decline on the disappointing CPI – especially core inflation points at more to come, and the better PPI figures don‘t make up for that. So, stocks reversed sharply lower - but not before our profitable long position was closed - and the tone for the rest of the week was set. Friday though was marked by buying the dip in the second half of the session, and the risk-on turn in bonds facilitated that. I wouldn‘t though be getting too carried away with the reversal as the bears haven‘t said the last word – I consider the rebound on high volume as a temporary reprieve in selling only.Sep FOMC is approaching, and as a result of the inflation disappointment (I told you it was to turn out sticky, it‘s service driven – and the reading refutes even the peak inflation hypothesis), bond markets started to assign some (low, but still – that‘s a major turn from last couple of weeks‘ position) probability to even a full 1% hike coming this week. The 75bp one would bring Fed funds rate to 3%, and is a very sharp reversal of the low corona era rates (too low for too long), and the risk of policy mistake is understandably very high. If anyone in the mainstream still believed in the soft landing fairy tale, it‘s probably universally clear now that the pace of the Fed tightening (and balance sheet shrinking) is to take a significant toll on the economy in the months to come. Finally, the effects of the tightening already in, haven‘t yet played out in full – and both Nov and Dec are likely to bring in more tightening.Housing is the best leading indicator, and so many metrics beyond the unsold inventory are pointing to trouble ahead spilling over into other sectors. The second key development of last week were disappointing earnings, namely FedEx missing so badly and guiding lower on claims of worldwide recession – hard to blame them if they look at Europe and hear the permanent deindustrialization warnings, or account for China‘s slowdown. Manufacturing is also about to suffer, and it‘s been my call for months that manufacturing recession is inevitable – the ISM data would confirm. Rising initial claims point to the labor market being the final one in line to deteriorate – we aren‘t quite there yet given the not too bad non-farm payrolls.I want to thank you for your patience during my almost weeklong absence, counting the pre-CPI quick preps over Twitter. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock – and will feature today a longer than usual section dedicated to the many markets on my watch. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t turning around for good, and energy is to remain arguably the best performing sector. Some consolidation is ahead, but any pre-FOMC rips are to be sold as I think the Fed‘s statements would throw cold water on any notion of backing off tightening (yes, 75bp hike still). Inflation data certainly don‘t allow for that, and bonds are looking for quite some more tightening ahead, underpinning the dollar. Strong dollar would help the more domestic oriented S&P 500 companies (that‘s roughly two thirds) but multinationals would suffer – we‘re still in a stage of P/E ratio drifting lower.Credit MarketsRisk sentiment got its clock cleaned last week, and HYG is pointing to a temporary reprieve only. The yield curve is still deeply inverted, short end of the curve getting hammered, but the long end is meeting some new buyers now that international trade flows recycling has been reversed (Japan, Europe are in trade defictis) while China isn‘t too much snapping up fresh Treasury issuance and the Fed is not rolling over the debt it owns. The TLT is the most important one to watch here – it‘s about whether the 30-year Treasury currently at 3.51% slides further or not.
Let's See S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Market's Performance

Let's See S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Market's Performance

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.09.2022 15:14
S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondigly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields didn‘t even send the dollar much upwards. Together with the sea of red in commodities and precious metals, this smacks of deleveraging, still of the relatively orderly flavor if you look at the well behaved VIX at 26 only. The steep post Jackson Hole downswing will pause, but there isn‘t a sign that would happen precisely today yet. Looking at the daily chart of CRB Index, crude oil, gold and silver with the miners, odds are that we would see a repeat of yesterday‘s action today as well – to a good degree. Not much has really change since my yesterday‘s review of real assets and cryptos, and especially the crude oil setback (reinforced by the Iran deal speculation Europe is pinning its eyes on) is generally worrying. The Fed keeps hammering the same message, and short end of the curve keeps duly rising. Tombstone reminder for those overstaying in the S&P 500 rally to the 200-day moving average, would be „don‘t fight the Fed – the central bank doesn‘t have your bank now, and would act on the out of control inflation“. I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Still, the next days would feature generally shorter analyses per the legal update on my homepage. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears still have the undeniable strategic initiative, and the pace of the downswing is really all that‘s being questioned. Earnings are still to deteriorate, and P/E to go down – inflation isn‘t declining fast enough, so equities react appropriately. CFA material 101. Read next: FX: GBP/USD May Catch Us By Surprise Soon! Tomorrow's US NFP May Let Boost USD (US Dollar) Or Arouse Concerns Over Fed's Strategy| FXMAG.COM Credit Markets HYG rested a little only on intraday basis, and objectively speaking it‘s downswing didn‘t trigger a genuine bloodbath in stocks. This can change but the steady dollar kind of doesn‘t hint at that right next. The S&P 500 bears should take it easy, because the coming days would be and feel like a consolidation compared to what we have been just through.
Dragging One‘s Feet

Dragging One‘s Feet

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.08.2022 15:48
S&P 500 decline was driven by better than expected JOLTS and consumer confidence data, fuelling speculation that the Fed can now „afford“ to be more restrictive than would otherwise be the case. Not that the Fed would be on this flight plan – the focus is obviously on getting inflation under control. Giving it more than a really good try. Today‘s action though points at a slower day ahead in stocks, and these are the key levels to watch in the continuing bear market downleg driven by misplaced macro bets. No, the Fed doesn‘t have the bulls‘ back this time.I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are taking it on the chin incrreasingly more – I‘m looking for further universal downside.Crude OilCrude oil bearish engulfing candle on sharply rising volume hints at more trouble to come short term, but this doesn‘t look as a truly bearish chart to me. Worth the wait on the long side.CopperCopper chart doesn‘t look pretty for the bulls, and should the low $3.40s give, the slide would quicken, no matter the bullish low stockpile fundamentals.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are standing out, and probably not in a good way. The question remains just when this upswing would be sold.
That Glimmer of Hope

That Glimmer of Hope

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.08.2022 15:52
S&P 500 staged a modest recovery, attempting to close the opening gap, which it did before retreating. Bonds mirrored the late day hesitation as well, and VIX didn‘t stage a true break lower. Simply put, yesterday does qualify as a start of a dead cat bounce – on that can be still resurrected. Overall though, the bulls would struggle first at 4,065 and then in the 4,130s should they even get this far, which I doubt today. Bears remain in control, and the environment is risk-off, no matter the little rips that are to be sold into.As stated yesterday:(…) Powell indeed delivered credibly, and the markets were surprised even though his speech merely confirmed the known positions – albeit using strong and direct language such as bringing some pain to households and businesses, or mentioning the necessity of acting with resolve regardess of the employment costs of bringing down inflation, the goal which Powell even mentioned as being unconditional. This should put to rest all the fantasies about pivot and soft landing – the U.S. economy remains on course to enter recession late 2022 / early 2023 while sticky inflation and restrictive Fed are here to stay. Yes, I stand by the 5-6% year end CPI call of long ago.How about the Fed funds rate? It‘s about to rise to 4% and possibly beyond – it doesn‘t matter that Treasuries had been doing the tightening for the Fed. The inflation rate and danger of inflation expectations becoming entrenched, requires hiking the Fed funds rate well, well beyond its natural rate, and keeping it there. So much had been broadly acknowledged by many Fed speakers – and Mester even sees no rate cuts next year. That‘s quite a resolve – and it paints a clear road for the markets ahead. As a new downleg in the S&P 500 bear market has been rubberstamped by Powell, Treasury yields will reflect the worsening economic outlook (LEIs are essentially falling for 5 months in a row) in declining yields before these move higher again. Yes, it‘s a paradigm shift – secular bear market in bonds is upon us in this decade, accomplanied by persistent inflation in necessities of life, and a commodities superbull run.I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still to remain under pressure – they are grappling with the tightening headwinds to a good degree. The outlook is still bearish as gold faces the double whammy of rising yields on the short end, and dollar upswing that‘s set to continue.Crude OilCrude oil is turning up, and dips remain to be bought – the area talked about in the caption is likely to hold. The outlook is brightening, the Saudi put helped turn black gold around mightily.CopperCopper seems to want to go to the downside after all – all that‘s missing is a modest rise in volume and steady intraday decline to confirm. $3.50 will turn out an tougher area to crack.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are pointing to an upswing, but rather hesitantly – challenge is arriving soon.
Bears Calling

Bears Calling

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.08.2022 02:25
S&P 500 cratered as Powell indeed delivered credibly, and the markets were surprised even though his speech merely confirmed the known positions – albeit using strong and direct language such as bringing some pain to households and businesses, or mentioning the necessity of acting with resolve regardess of the employment costs of bringing down inflation, the goal which Powell even mentioned as being unconditional. This should put to rest all the fantasies about pivot and soft landing – the U.S. economy remains on course to enter recession late 2022 / early 2023 while sticky inflation and restrictive Fed are here to stay. Yes, I stand by the 5-6% year end CPI call of long ago.How about the Fed funds rate? It‘s about to rise to 4% and possibly beyond – it doesn‘t matter that Treasuries had been doing the tightening for the Fed. The inflation rate and danger of inflation expectations becoming entrenched, requires hiking the Fed funds rate well, well beyond its natural rate, and keeping it there. So much had been broadly acknowledged by many Fed speakers – and Mester even sees no rate cuts next year. That‘s quite a resolve – and it paints a clear road for the markets ahead. As a new downleg in the S&P 500 bear market has been rubberstamped by Powell, Treasury yields will reflect the worsening economic outlook (LEIs are essentially falling for 5 months in a row) in declining yields before these move higher again. Yes, it‘s a paradigm shift – secular bear market in bonds is upon us in this decade, accomplanied by persistent inflation in necessities of life, and a commodities superbull run.I hope you capitalized on the rich coverage throughout Friday – both in the analysis and on my very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox.One more thought on valuations, the P/E ratio and price targets – as through the quarters ahead the earnings would go down, and the slowing economy would be reflected in declining (yet persistently sticky) inflation levels, look for P/E to come down through both the E and through how much the buyers would be willing to pay for future cash flows. Inflation falling would not prop up the valuations nearly sufficiently enough, and my 3,950 target, is just that – a surefire one to be reached, with solid potential for further gains on the short side beyond those already in. Macroeconomics, momentum, intermarket analysis – I‘m keeping a close eye as always, for this won‘t be a one-way slide...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is poised to continue the fresh downleg, but reaching the lows won‘t be a one-way journey. Friday was a starting point in the recognition of more pain to come for buy the dippers – market breadth has decidedly turned, and VIX confirms.Credit MarketsHYG is clearly pointing to waning risk sentiment, and it would get worse. Corporate bonds are on the defensive while decline in Treasury yields would add to the stock market woes, not saving Nasdaq.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto appears to want to rally, but I‘m not buying into it – rips are still to be sold.
Facing Damocles Sword

Facing Damocles Sword

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.08.2022 15:39
S&P 500 confirmed the daily outlook yesterday, and did really well. The signs before the close also favored bullish entry into today. VIX kept declining, UVXY confirming – no surprise that the bears were weak intraday, and likely would first have to deal with a spiking stock market before we see a repeat of the latest Fed minutes release (daily stall followed by reversal). CBOE put/call ratiois not too much out of balance, favoring a nice move today. USD is uncovincing given the delicate balancing the Fed has to do while still appearing (and crucially acting) resolute. Tough job to regain inflation fighting credentials when the „transitory‘ horse has left the barn many quarters ago. Given the continued weakness of the sellers going into the Powell speech, the nimble intraday traders among you may be tempted to join the buyers temporarily, eyeing the exit door should Powell truly surprise and deliver credibly.As written yesterday:(…) The risk-on move won‘t be shattered by the upcoming (Sep start is almost here) of the $95bn balance sheet shrinking operations. I think the markets would be willing to buy into the dovish interpretation as readily as the July‘s Powell Fed funds rate being near the neutral rate remark, and this jubilation can possibly stretch through Monday or until VIX hits the 21.50 – 21 area. While Treasury yields are rising, the stall speed of USD hints also at a dovish reaction before the big picture takes over.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is positioned to extend gains, the pullback turned out to be a healthy one only as another attempt at the 200-d moving average is possible. See the modest rise in volume. 4,250 can be easily beaten today.Credit MarketsHYG gathered speed before the close, setting the tone for a bullish showing today – openly doubting the likely hawkish message ahead – it‘s about the ability to execute. That goes for long-dated Treasuries to a good degree too even if the Sep tightening expectations continue to favor 75bp hike.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto is the only fly in the daily bullish ointment. The chart is still ugly (bearish).
Jackson Hole Plan

Jackson Hole Plan

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.08.2022 14:50
S&P 500 didn‘t break below the 4,110s and the entry to yesterday‘s session made me think 4,160s would hold. They did, but today, they‘re likely to be overcome as the markets want to anticipate a dovish Fed. While no pivot would be announced or hinted at, the delicate balancing between signs of a cooling economy (housing, manufacturing) and underlining data dependency in the monetary tightening path to reflect incoming inflation data. And as CPI inflation has peaked, this introduces wiggle room that the markets seem quite willing to take advantage of in the short term.The risk-on move won‘t be shattered by the upcoming (Sep start is almost here) of the $95bn balance sheet shrinking operations. I think the markets would be willing to buy into the dovish interpretation as readily as the July‘s Powell Fed funds rate being near the neutral rate remark, and this jubilation can possibly stretch through Monday or until VIX hits the 21.50 – 21 area. While Treasury yields are rising, the stall speed of USD hints also at a dovish reaction before the big picture takes over. In addition, better than expected GDP data would invite speculation that the Fed would be more hawkish than should the economy be teetering on the edge to a greater degree.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are probing to go up, and broader markets seem to agree with a modest upswing right into the Powell speech. VIX above 23.50 isn‘t likely today, giving slight advantage to the bulls who would try hard to ignite fireworks on any dovish remark they can later grasp at.Credit MarketsHYG showed again daily resilience, and stocks were indeed listening as I cautioned you in the run up to yesterday‘s session, in this analysis. The low volume can though easily usher in decline continuation should the HYG bear flag formation get completed.
Bidding Some Time

Bidding Some Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.08.2022 15:52
S&P 500 didn‘t swing even temporarily higher yesterday, refusing to act on relatively bullish signs from bonds. No turnaround, Nasdaq was also flat – and the volume declined in both. Fresh sellers wanted, nowhere to be found. Well, commodities had a good day, driven by crude oil‘s sharp reversal on Muhammad bin Salman‘s words about potentially reducting output, which the paper markets promptly got. Acricultural stocks also started doing better – ADM, BG, DBA, and the like including CORN. Yet, copper‘s sharp upswing was rejected at $3.73, as it the bulls were unwilling to run too far, too fast. Cryptos not following though entirely on the bullish cues – Ethereum short profits taken off the table – means that we‘re in for a relatively muted upswing (attempt) in stocks. Until the Jackson Hole uncertainty is removed, that is. Given that I look for VIX to remain in the 22.50 – 24 range today, it means a relatively narrow range in the S&P 500 ahead.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Crude OilCrude oil is on a tear, and I look for it to be well bid. Given the run‘s confirmation by oil stocks, that says a lot about stock market prospects (bearish as oil is the shadow Fed funds rate).CopperCopper is starting to hesitate, and unless $3.74 is broken, has a lot of potential to correct recent strength. Other base metals appear to agree.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are still hesitating, and I am not looking for surprising moves either way today.
In a Heartbeat

In a Heartbeat

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.08.2022 18:51
S&P 500 cratered, bonds confirmed, and market breadth took a dive. The advance-decline line is not really in a good shape, and the respite that‘s possibly shaping up for today (alternatively tomorrow) would offer an interesting point to add to shorts once it exhausts itself. Where to look for signs of weakness, which sectors then? It would be again broad-based, with more attention turning to real estate, financials, and not leaving healthcare or biotech unscathed. Semicondutors also aren‘t foretelling a great outcome for tech, but the behemoths with TSLA are likely to help in the days ahead. Yesterday‘s VIX certainly calmed down, and appears to need a while to recharge batteries. And little wonder if you look at macroeconomics – the two charts below show that while we aren‘t yet feeling the effects of all the tightening in (let alone the aggressive moves still to come), the effects upon liquidity (FINRA margin debt serves as a nice proxy) have been already felt for quite a few months – and are getting worse. Little wonder that I assign practically zero odds of this S&P 500 rally to morph into a bull market even though it did beat the 50% retracement from the Jun lows. Less fuel available to power the buying. Charts courtesy of St. Louis Fed and Ycharts. Today‘s key data points are manufacturing and services PMIs, and I‘m looking at manufacturing to be the likelier candidate to disappoint than services. The greater the undershoot, the more fresh (misguided but still) bets on the Fed pivot approaching, which should translate into a risk-on turn today. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals indeed find no rest, confirming the bearish prognosis. Unless bonds turn again, the metals would have a hard time – and one daily pause in the miners doesn‘t solve that. Barring a hawkish surprise outdoing Fed plans, gold would not panic much more beyond moving in sympathy with nominal yields – the $1,750s area is critical, breaking which can quicken the decline. Crude Oil Crude oil refused lower prices, and it looks to me there won‘t be too many visits to the lower border of this declining wedge like structure. Price consolidation right above it is most likely now – good idea to have taken meaningful short profits off the table yesterday. Copper Copper chart is still bullish, and the selling attempts are very shallow. Moreover, they‘re bound to disappear once risk-on sets in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are ready for a reprieve, and the caption says it all. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this endeavor possible! Thank you, Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading SignalsOil Trading SignalsCopper Trading SignalsBitcoin Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Enticing the Bears

Enticing the Bears

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.08.2022 16:05
S&P 500 duly gave up on the weak Thursday‘s rebound, and bonds cratered as Treasuries aren‘t yielding on the Fed tightening expectations. There is almost 70% probability about 75bp hike coming next in September. The Fed would likely pause then, and I‘m looking for 25bp in November, with tightening continuing on the balance sheet shrinking front. Late in the week, Jakcson Hole would set the tone, but given the array of Fed speakers late in the prior week, we can look forward for a serious economic slowdown, which would be by definition necessary to bring down inflation fast from these lofty levels.And we‘re seeing more than early signs of that in the (very much slowing) real estate market, and (sharply rising) utilities. I take that as a scream that interest rates are getting too high for the weakening real economy, and it would show up fast not just in the 10-year yield. Last week‘s data from the UK and Germany reveal that U.S. earnings won‘t escape unscathed – it‘s a matter of time before not only E, but also P/E comes down more meaningfully. Meanwhile, the yield curve inversion signal (chart courtesy of St. Louis Fed) keeps its cool...To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 downswing quickened, and while it‘s still relatively orderly, the rising volume is favoring the bears this week as much as the deteriorating market breadth or AAPL with TSLA ripe for a serious pullback. Credit MarketsFine picture in bonds if you are a bear – even more so than it was after Thursday‘s closing bell. HYG is likely to correct some more, especially if the hawkish Fed messages get some more attention – it‘s clear the Fed is taking inflation more seriously now.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto weekend is over, and ti‘s back to the downward pointing trend. Let the open profits grow!
It Started

It Started

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.08.2022 15:50
Following yesterday‘s weak rally and bonds showing, S&P 500 bears have the upper hand (timely announcement). Then, the crypto plunge is adding to downswing‘s credibility – about to spill over into tech. Note it didn‘t and doesn‘t take much of a dollar upswing – continuing the rise is enough. Yesterday‘s positive economic data are to be overshadowed by the Fed pronouncements sinking in. Yes, Daly, Kashkari spoke, even mentioning recession uncertainty… And it‘s clear we‘re likely to face quite some tightening ahead, more so than the markets are discounting – and any swift moves in inflation, are faciliated by economic contraction. The bull trap has been set.Next week won‘t be much better – I‘m looking for grim German PMIs Tuesday, challenged GDP readings on Thursday, and especially the hawkish Jackson Hole. It should be becoming increasingly clear that the risk-on rally is to meet serious reality check, and that lower stock (and other) market data are ahead. The sentiment of my Wednesday‘s recap of deteriorating economy, is to set the tone – and thankfully won‘t be as bad as the German persistently high PPI. Strong dollar to the rescue, a helpful tool in alleviating domestic inflation pressure in the States (yes, U.S. inflation peaked as I was advising you of in advance).To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears have the initiative, and Nasdaq is likely to confirm that. Such a setup is where large downswings can be born – not guaranteed today, but quite possible.Credit MarketsFine picture in bonds for the bears – this weak daily pause is likely to give way to lower values. Tightening is putting pressure on inflation trades.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break is finally here, presaging more trouble ahead still – putting to rest notions of Ethereum decoupling, at least relatively decoupling. Let the open profits grow!
Daily Check

Daily Check

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.08.2022 15:52
S&P 500 bears missed yesterday‘s opportunity to force a decisive close lower – several key sectors led the intraday recovery even though bonds weren‘t on board. The Fed minutes‘ initial dovish interpretation duly gave way to the still accented hawkish decisions ahead – it‘s still reasonable to expect 75bp hike in Sep with perhaps 25bp in Nov while diving increasingly more into balance sheet shrinking. The focus is now shifting to the real economy performance, and it almost seems that the reverse of bad is the new good, is kicking in in stocks. At the same time, slightly better unemployment claims are helping put a floor below commodities today.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals couldn‘t do any better even if inflation expectations have been resilient over the latest two months. Chopping along while the bearish headwinds prevail, is the most likely outcome for the weeks ahead.Crude OilCrude oil is ready to turn up next, but I wonder how long that would last, and whether any technically important levels would be conquered. For now, the focus on drawdown in inventories and Fed not yet making purely hawkish noises, can prevail.CopperCopper may be carving out a short-term bottom, but it‘s early to tell. The intraday pause in the dollar and those marginally higher stocks and cryptos, look suspect today.Bitcoin and EthereumNothing new in cryptoland really – the bears going to turn up the heat. Underperforming on the upswings, outperforming on the downswings.
Turning Up the Heat

Turning Up the Heat

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.08.2022 15:50
S&P 500 was swiftly rejected at 200-day moving average – like clockwork, with bonds presaging further weakness. Not yet a down day, but the sea of red extended to real assets as particularly oil had to do some recognition of slowing economy. The fundamentals are being taken more seriously by the market, and the allure of 200-day moving average would prove fake and temporary one.Let‘s bring up Monday‘s thoughts:(…) this run in stocks isn‘t yet done, and still has the potential to come nearer to the 200-day moving average, currently at 4,328.The moving average itself is though sloping downwards, which puts extra pressure on this run. Neither Nasdaq has conquerred its own 200-day moving average, so far just value stocks and Russell 2000 did. What are though the prospects for the broad rally to continue? All right, we closed above the 50% retracement from the Jun bottom, but was this the final bottom or is there more to the bear market still, enough to force a 10-15% decline from here? Was there any kind of catalyst to lift stocks up back then in Jun?Are earnings going to increase from here still? Who is going to be willing to pay higher earnings per share when the real economy is on the verge of recession, yield curve in deep inversion, corporations laying off or implementing hiring freezes? Are valuations going to increase when liquidity not only in the U.S. but around the world is still falling? After the Fed says they want to take Fed funds rate to 4% practically speaking, eurozone is tightening, U.K. is tightening, heck even Argentina has raised rates to 69.5%. Just Japan is running easy money policy, resulting in the yen taking it on the chin – and the only other key country lowering rates, is Russia. When it comes to energy security and resilience, the West remains vulnerable to another exogenous shock, and I‘m not even raising China‘s latest response (round one) catching the headlines. Expansive fiscal policy won‘t carry the weight really.There is plenty that can go wrong about the stock market bull run, and the only question is whether the bears would be able to drive S&P 500 below 4,000, and how deep below that. This is based on more than the awaiting recognition of Fed pivot being a misguided bet. Forgetting about tail risk for a moment, I think the most probable outcome is still a dip below 3,950, precisely because of waning liquidity (the Fed is only setting off on its $95bn monthly balance sheet shrinking), squeezed profit margins, lower earning for at least three quarters ahead, manufacturing recession approaching (ISM dipping below 50), and lower P/E ratios as money moves into commodities and precious metals over the months ahead.The Fed is focused on tackling the runaway inflation horse, which would have severe consequences for the job market. Unemployment claims – which are the most leading indicator thereof (non-farm payrolls rather lag) have been quite consistently moving higher recently. The macro landscape isn‘t brightening – the degree of the upcoming recession is what remains to be seen, as for all the headwinds mentioned, I don‘t think the Fed would either manage to engineer a soft landing, or have any immediate plans to step away from tightening any time soon. Similarly, inflation hasn‘t been defeated, isn‘t going below 5% YoY, and would prove sticky, preventing the Fed to go at least neutral or start cutting rates early 2023 – that‘s quite a few bullish macro hopes having low odds of materializing.That‘s why I am looking for a serious reality check to the S&P 500 run.Updating it with yesterday‘s data releases being correctly interpreted by the markets:(…) bonds aren‘t turning risk-off, but HYG is getting into an extended (vulnerable) position. So far, markets have largely ignored three latest data pieces in – Empire State manufacturing index plunging (both in orders ahead and shipments), positive quarterly results by WMT and HD, and sharp deterioration in actual housing starts (permits are fine, but they‘ll catch up – it‘s the action that counts, and that‘s reflected in the not too encouraging prospects of the real market market). Willingness to sell and fast, is there. Deterioration ahead - and the pace could turn quckening on any good uptick in offers to sell stocks.Bonds turned clearly risk-off yesterday, and the dollar rose. Retail sales are unlikely to fuel the conquest of the 200-day moving average, but the core ones should end up better. Still, there‘s quite some pain on the consumer level in the months ahead as the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy, Fed pivot isn‘t really coming soon, and unemployment claims are to continue their upward trajectory. Just like manufacturing data, this is a leading one.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are to remain under pressure, and I wouldn‘t fully trust the miners here. Just not yet.Crude OilCrude oil upswing was duly rejected, but black gold looks in need of more consolidation before continuing the decline. $83 is the next target once fresh sellers step in.CopperCopper is unconvincing in its attempt to cling on by the fingernails. The volume didn‘t impress me either.Bitcoin and EthereumNothing new in cryptoland really – the bears going to turn up the heat.
The Turn

The Turn

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.08.2022 15:52
S&P 500 more than erased Thursday‘s decline – buy the dip mentality won, and the advance was that broad-based that it makes sense that I examine the theoretical possibility of a new bull market being born. Short-term, the VIX and VVIX moves point to a serious uptick in volatility ahead – it‘s approaching, but given the strong bond market performance on Friday, not likely to happen at the very start of the week. Given the positive reaction to consumer confidence data coming in above expectations – it wasn‘t that hard to see in the aftermath of the data release – this run in stocks isn‘t yet done, and still has the potential to come nearer to the 200-day moving average, currently at 4,328.The moving average itself is though sloping downwards, which puts extra pressure on this run. Neither Nasdaq has conquerred its own 200-day moving average, so far just value stocks and Russell 2000 did. What are though the prospects for the broad rally to continue? All right, we closed above the 50% retracement from the Jun bottom, but was this the final bottom or is there more to the bear market still, enough to force a 10-15% decline from here? Was there any kind of catalyst to lift stocks up back then in Jun?Are earnings going to increase from here still? Who is going to be willing to pay higher earnings per share when the real economy is on the verge of recession, yield curve in deep inversion, corporations laying off or implementing hiring freezes? Are valuations going to increase when liquidity not only in the U.S. but around the world is still falling? After the Fed says they want to take Fed funds rate to 4% practically speaking, eurozone is tightening, U.K. is tightening, heck even Argentina has raised rates to 69.5%. Just Japan is running easy money policy, resulting in the yen taking it on the chin – and the only other key country lowering rates, is Russia. When it comes to energy security and resilience, the West remains vulnerable to another exogenous shock, and I‘m not even raising China‘s latest response (round one) catching the headlines. Expansive fiscal policy won‘t carry the weight really.There is plenty that can go wrong about the stock market bull run, and the only question is whether the bears would be able to drive S&P 500 below 4,000, and how deep below that. This is based on more than the awaiting recognition of Fed pivot being a misguided bet. Forgetting about tail risk for a moment, I think the most probable outcome is still a dip below 3,950, precisely because of waning liquidity (the Fed is only setting off on its $95bn monthly balance sheet shrinking), squeezed profit margins, lower earning for at least three quarters ahead, manufacturing recession approaching (ISM dipping below 50), and lower P/E ratios as money moves into commodities and precious metals over the months ahead.The Fed is focused on tackling the runaway inflation horse, which would have severe consequences for the job market. Unemployment claims – which are the most leading indicator thereof (non-farm payrolls rather lag) have been quite consistently moving higher recently. The macro landscape isn‘t brightening – the degree of the upcoming recession is what remains to be seen, as for all the headwinds mentioned, I don‘t think the Fed would either manage to engineer a soft landing, or have any immediate plans to step away from tightening any time soon. Similarly, inflation hasn‘t been defeated, isn‘t going below 5% YoY, and would prove sticky, preventing the Fed to go at least neutral or start cutting rates early 2023 – that‘s quite a few bullish macro hopes having low odds of materializing.That‘s why I am looking for a serious reality check to the S&P 500 run.
The Spike

The Spike

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.08.2022 16:26
S&P 500 bulls didn‘t even meekly take initiative yesterday, and odds are this positioning would hold through today‘s CPI – and crucially the regular session‘s reaction to it. Bonds have made up their mind, it clearly seems as the pressure on the Fed to keep tightening, is on. As stated yesterday:(…) Given tomorrow‘s CPI that‘s likely to come in better than the markets fear it would (i.e. in support of the inflation has peaked thesis), the room for disappointment in inflation trades is there, and the hopes that the Fed might not get as aggressive on a better CPI figure, wouldn‘t balance that out in my view.The dollar would react with a decline to any dialing back of tightening expectations. Greater pressure would still come from the balance sheet reduction that I‘m looking for to run for longer than the Fed stops hiking rates.What‘s key next, is follow through to the S&P 500 selling, facilitated by the broader risk-off turn – a confirmed break below the 4,100s support is the milestone ahead. Notions of peaking inflation won‘t do the trick and drive stocks sustainably higher – dialing back the Fed tightening expectations would come back to bite the bulls. Precious metals are to remain relatively most resilient (and be joined to some degree by copper) while oil is most vulnerable on the daily basis.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers.Crude OilCrude oil is still vulnerable (and it‘s telling that S&P 500 can‘t rise even on progressively lower oil prices and USDX daily struggle). The bears are favored unless $95 is cleared.CopperCopper‘s short-term bullish move is encouraging, but the vulnerability to the hawkish Fed moves and rhetoric remains – it would probably play out well after the CPI dust settles. The red metal is now enjoying the prospects of easier liquidity.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are joining in the celebration, and it remains to be seen when the risk-on sentiment comes under scrutiny. The Fed won‘t just go 25bp in Sep, not at all – markets would be disappointed as soon as first Fed official starts talking again (as was the case last week).
Talking S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold, Bitcoin And More - 09/08/22

Talking S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold, Bitcoin And More - 09/08/22

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.08.2022 16:00
S&P 500 bulls were clearly rejected, and it‘s highly questionable whether they would make another run. I doubt they would. And even if, it‘s bound to get rejected as none of the bearish fundamental reasoning ceased to apply, and it‘s getting reflected in the chart technicals as well. As stated yesterday: (…) The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong headline NFPs figure, will take their toll on risk-on assets that had been driving Friday‘s run. Bets on another 75bp hike in Sep have increased dramatically, practically proving Daly or Kashkari right in that the Fed isn‘t done yet or even close to the Fed funds rate to really get inflation down. While they claim that 2% is doable and soft landing within reach, the progression from 9% downwards just doesn‘t go fast like that. At best (repeating myself for months here), they would get to 5-6% CPI, which means a tough Sep and one more FOMC still this year. Combined with balnce sheet shrinking projections, that would take a great toll on the real economy – one that is being softened by the still very expansive fiscal policy. Given tomorrow‘s CPI that‘s likely to come in better than the markets fear it would (i.e. in support of the inflation has peaked thesis), the room for disappointment in inflation trades is there, and the hopes that the Fed might not get as aggressive on a better CPI figure, wouldn‘t balance that out in my view. Here comes a fitting question just in that allows me to develop these thoughts further to the benefit of the whole audience: Q: CPI wednesday will certainly show much lower numbers than previously (mainly because oil was recently much cheaper than in May, June). FED has proven to be rather readily dovish in such events. Investors will see the US companies and the US technology sector as the safe haven. Because elsewhere in the world (mainly in politically and economically weak Europe) is a mess. US as safe-heaven was proven by recent Apple and Amazon earnings and also by recently approved US government stimulus for micro-chip / semiconductor production. Isn't this environment rather bullish for US equities especially to the near future ?? Outflow of money from Europe into strong and safe US. A: I doubt the Fed would react dovishly to softening inflation as they have to take on the pesky inflation expectations (it was a key lesson of the 1970s when they didn‘t). It gives them optically a better chance at taking inflation down fast – and the markets would wake up to their dovish perception mistake, should they make it in the first place. The fiscal stimulus is though being faded in the stock market, it‘s closer to the case of sell the news than anything else. The money flows are going to be selective about what assets they would lift, and odds are it wouldn‘t be parked in tech for too long if Treasuries stop revolting against the Fed‘s rate raising. Such a time point would come over the nearest months ahead, but still I am not counting on any giant Nasdaq run, or rather any run to speak of (no matter the degree of Treasuries‘ next move). To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, which I am unlocking today in full so that you get a better the regular care premium subscribers get, especially before tomorrow‘s inflation data. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is turning down, and Friday‘s signal is getting repeated – i.e. getting stronger. The daily indicators have also deteriorated, but the volume and sectoral internals message is the most important here. Credit Markets HYG indeed attracted sell – and the reversal to the downside needs a confirmation today in terms of rising volume and daily close anywhere in the Friday‘s daily range. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals want to turn up, and miners are at least on a daily basis following. Echoing yesterday‘s premium thoughts, they aren‘t selling too hard on the turn towards anticipating tougher tightening ahead. With hikes to be paused after Sep for a while, the metals would have an easier time before that FOMC day in Sep. Next week‘s CPI will have a short-term effect only – the consequences of recognizing inflation as sticky no matter what the Fed has done already, would be greater. This moment awaits still. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s rebound isn‘t yet turning the tide, and the approaching seasonality spells trouble ahead. I‘m still leaning towards the $88 support slowly giving way as $85 approach comes next – we may land in the low 80s really before rebounding early November. Copper Copper‘s short-term bullish move is encouraging, but the vulnerability to the hawkish Fed moves and rhetoric remains – it would probably play out after the CPI only, which applies also to oil. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are clearly reversing, and that‘s a good sign for those betting on a bearish resolution of tomrorow‘s inflation data overall.
Let's Have A Look At S&P 500 (SPX) And (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Charts

Let's Have A Look At S&P 500 (SPX) And (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Charts

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.08.2022 08:37
S&P 500 bulls made a good run, but didn‘t deal with the bearish outcome looming, The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong headline NFPs figure, will take their toll on risk-on assets that had been driving Friday‘s run. Bets on another 75bp hike in Sep have increased dramatically, practically proving Daly or Kashkari right in that the Fed isn‘t done yet or even close to the Fed funds rate to really get inflation down. While they claim that 2% is doable and soft landing within reach, the progression from 9% downwards just doesn‘t go fast like that. At best (repeating myself for months here), they would get to 5-6% CPI, which means a tough Sep and one more FOMC still this year. Combined with balnce sheet shrinking projections, that would take a great toll on the real economy – one that is being softened by the still very expansive fiscal policy. Let‘s look around the world (apart from the troubles in Europe and Asia such as shown in JPY weakness), many other central banks are tightening, Latin America is also tightening. It‘s not only UK and the implications discussed on Friday: (…) Let‘s have a look at yesterday‘s Bank of England moves, kind of foreshadowing what‘s reasonable to expect from the Fed. In the UK, the prospect of entering recession Q4 2022 amd remaining in it for more than a couple of quarters, is being acknowledged. The central bank though intends to keep tightening anyway, preferring to take on inflation after it ran out of control longer they publicly anticipated. Meanwhile in the States, unemployment claims have edged higher – indicative of growing softness in the labor market. Long-dated Treasuries continue rising as is appropriate in these conditions of economic slowdown slowly gathering pace. Similarly to inflation expectations, they‘re not yet taking the Fed‘s hawkish rhetoric absolutely seriously unlike commodity prices that are at best carving out a bullish divergence (still in the making, therefore without implications yet). Precious metals appear farther along the route of acknowledging the upcoming stagflationary reality as I continue looking for inflation to remain in the stubbornly high 5-6% range no matter the Fed‘s actions over the next 3 FOMC meetings at least. Obviously, the hotter the underlying markets, the more tightening has to be done, and that‘s extra headwind for the markets, and one making the Fed pivot a bit more elusive. The key thing that has changed from the above, is the turn in yields – Treasuries would have a harder time rising now, but given that I expect better CPI on Wednesday (oil is down and hasn‘t bottomed yet etc), yields should retreat in what I look to be a positive market reaction – one of hoping that the Fed wouldn‘t tighten that much as is feared today they would. This wouldn‘t however save the stock market bulls. Consider though as well where the Fed funds rate is now, and how far above 3% Powell can take it. He will try, sure, but even 4% in our debt based economy would prove bridge too far when it comes to any soft landing (stating the very obvious). Back during the last successful one (mid 1990s), we were going through genuinely positive tech revolution that helped cushion restrictive monetary policy – these macro implications for productivity growth don‘t apply now. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is clinging by the finernails, and the only question remains whether we have a few dozen points still to go on the upside to reach even more excessive bullishness, or whether the slow grind lower is assuming the reins from here. The bull trap is almost complete. Credit Markets HYG is going to attract a sell in the not too distant future – more so than it did on Friday. The opening gap was more than half closed, but this isn‘t going to last. All it takes to bring junk bonds down, is more conviction about the Fed‘s hawkish path ahead. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are slightly up, which bodes well for risk taking. Not expecting huge gains today here or in SPX, but a reversal of Friday‘s setback.
Shocking Quotations! S&P 500, Bitcoin, Crude Oil Chart - A Pack Of Charts With Commentary Is Here!

Shocking Quotations! S&P 500, Bitcoin, Crude Oil Chart - A Pack Of Charts With Commentary Is Here!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.08.2022 15:56
S&P 500 bearish overtures were refused, bonds remained optically risk-on and strong, but the true picture reflects a daily stall. Refusal to drive prices higher in the absence of convincing, credibly strong NFPs. I have a hunch that a careful look under the hood would reveal some signs of weakness in the job market, the way hours worked last time did. While the Fed isn‘t drumming this point really as tightening would come at the expense of unemployment rate, because wage inflation needs to be broken down as well in order to get overall inflation under control. Some officials such as Kashkari aren‘t hiding the fact it would take several years to achieve the 2% goal again. Let‘s have a look at yesterday‘s Bank of England moves, kind of foreshadowing what‘s reasonable to expect from the Fed. In the UK, the prospect of entering recession Q4 2022 amd remaining in it for more than a couple of quarters, is being acknowledged. The central bank though intends to keep tightening anyway, preferring to take on inflation after it ran out of control longer they publicly anticipated. Meanwhile in the States, unemployment claims have edged higher – indicative of growing softness in the labor market. Long-dated Treasuries continue rising as is appropriate in these conditions of economic slowdown slowly gathering pace. Similarly to inflation expectations, they‘re not yet taking the Fed‘s hawkish rhetoric absolutely seriously unlike commodity prices that are at best carving out a bullish divergence (still in the making, therefore without implications yet). Precious metals appear farther along the route of acknowledging the upcoming stagflationary reality as I continue looking for inflation to remain in the stubbornly high 5-6% range no matter the Fed‘s actions over the next 3 FOMC meetings at least. Obviously, the hotter the underlying markets, the more tightening has to be done, and that‘s extra headwind for the markets, and one making the Fed pivot a bit more elusive. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, which I'm exceptionally unlocking today in full so that you can get a better idea about the care (plus trade calls and intraday updates) premium subscribers regularly get. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 underwent a daily consolidation, preparing for a spike that should be sold into. The bull trap is almost complete with VIX pushing to 21 – the degree of the overshoot is what matters. Credit Markets HYG is going to attract a sell in the not too distant future. Its upswing isn‘t accompanied by coresponding rise in cyclicals, in risk-on sectors – there is still much defensive / slow growth driven flavor about the stock market rally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals turned strongly up yesterday, but not yet absolutely decisively – there was some upper knot, and the volume could be higher too. Positive day in need of quite some follow through. Crude Oil Crude oil weakness is getting the bulls worried, and I‘m leaning towards the $88 support slwoly giving way as $85 approach comes next. Longs are suitable only for medium-term investors. Copper Copper is holding up, but should another setback strike commodities, the red metal wouldn‘t escape unscathed. Short-term, the move in base metals is positive but it‘s too early to say whether that can survive the autumn storms. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are expecting a good outcome today – this is where the earliest signs of disappointment and peak would be found.
Slowly Thinning Air

Slowly Thinning Air

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.08.2022 15:53
S&P 500 rose, driven by tech at expense of value, which is normail in economic slowdowns. The junk bond rally however stands out – a prime candidate to attract selling at the nearest whiff of risk-off. The many fundamental reasons described in Monday‘s article, remain intact, if there weren‘t geopolitical ones. Tellingly, the yield curve inversion continues deepening, and bonds aren‘t buying the tightening story in the least – they fear the Fed overdoing it. And that‘s a key catalyst behind yesterday‘s decline in real assets, with its new interpretations of neutral Fed funds rate, or „having enough not to make trade-offs“ inflation remarks.Sure, ISM services PMI provided a daily boost to the rally, and so the revamp calculations behind tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls would work (would the pesky hours worked sending the opposite message, get recalculated as well?) in a bid to keep the increasingly FOMO confidence in the S&P 500 rally going. It still has the hallmarks of a short-covering rally, and not of genuine animal spirits – that doesn‘t square with the dreaded R word. To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, with more thoughts for premium subscribers.. S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rising volume says that it‘s not yet time to get resolutely rejected. When XLY starts weakening, that would be a good time to be onboard with a short position.Credit MarketsTLT hasn‘t topped yet in the least, the run against the Fed would continue – Treasuries are to peak in November. But first and still this month, HYG would be getting into increadingly hot water.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos continue losing altitude, and intraday upswings aren‘t indeed to be trusted – as said yesterday, no technically significant level would be breached, there is nothing to turn this ship around yet.
Another Upswing Attempt

Another Upswing Attempt

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.08.2022 15:58
S&P 500 refused to swing higher yesterday, and bonds weren‘t much risk-on either. Revisiting the neutral Fed funds rate comments didn‘t do much good for risk sentiment, even though HYG doesn‘t yet reflect that with its closing price. A new attempt at 4,140s looks to be in the making, and even if we get a break higher, it‘s going to be a fake one, and fail. It would also coincide with a rejection of lower VIX values around 22, in favor of reverting back to the high 20s recent average.The current optimism seems misplaced, and the upcoming ISM services PMI would reveal the slowly deteriorating internals of economic growth. Coupled with manufacturing PMI, these leading indicators illustrate a tough real economy to come in late 2022 / early 2023 – the dreaded R word.To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 may be carving out a bullish flag, but I‘m not looking for any break higher to stick.Credit MarketsTLT hasn‘t topped yet, and as we progress along in Aug, HYG would be getting into increadingly hot waters even if there is not that much chart deterioration visible now. The implications are bearish stocks in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos continue being vulnerable, and I do9n‘t trust the intraday upswing – no technically significant level would be breached, there is nothing to turn this ship around yet.
It‘s Starting

It‘s Starting

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.08.2022 16:01
S&P 500 met its daily setback, one that has potential to develop over Aug into a more serious one. Financials and consumer discretionaries are signalling a pause in the rally ahead – a pause as a minimum, gradual rollover to the downside is more likely. Bonds made a serious risk-off turn but the bullish juices haven‘t run out yet. Well, the rise in long-term bonds that I first called for to happen in mid May, is unfolding, and we have higher to go – yields have peaked, and Treasuries are now set to rise in reflection of deteriorating economy.The Fed isn‘t done with its tightening, wage inflation would be getting as much checked as commodities lately – and the optimistic take on the July FOMC would give way to more down to earth interpretations – quoting from yesterday‘s extensive analysis:The stock market pendulum has since decidedly swung in the bullish direction, yet I‘m looking for this rally to run out of steam, and roll over. Remember that Powell said that with the 75bp hike, the Fed funds rate is now close to neutral. Sure that inflation is peaking and the following CPI readings would be a little more pleasant deceleration rather than acceleration continuation (PCE at 6.8% annualized is highest since 1982), but the Fed would take the opportunity and try pushing the Fed funds rate a bit above what it sees as the natural rate. And I am not even raising the aspiration to be shrinking the balance sheet by up to the whopping $95bn a month (something similar went on into spring 2019, well after the hikes of 2018 ended), which would cool down the housing market a lot more than it appears to be the projected case now. Also the job market effects would take the unemployment rate noticeably higher, and that would deal with the wage inflation while the cost push one would decelerate, yet service driven one remain unyielding. Simply put, inflation is to cool off somewhat.Apart from macroeconomic reality catching up with the bear market rally, it‘s also earnings projections where I am looking for quite a few downgrades in the 2H 2022. Coupled with the Fed surprising the markets on the balance sheet reduction front (there isn‘t enough attention paid to this yet – let alone to the liquidity withdrawal aftermath), and the deepening yield curve inversion, we‘re in for a lot of recessionary trouble – at the very least teetering on the brink already. Deteriorating consumer sentiment would also cascade into retail sales – coming full circle to the earnings ahead.The S&P 500 and crypto short profits can keep growing. More insights are available for premium subscribers. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are pausing, but likely to carve out a higher low next – especially when it comes to gold, followed by silver. Miners aren‘t yet the ideal place to be in, but that could start to change on a sharper daily stock market drop.Crude OilCrude oil is thus far defending $93, remaining kind of in a no man‘s land between $93 and $98. Inflation trades continue being taken down a notch or two, but black gold is to remain better insulated than base metals.CopperCopper is set to lose some shine, bearing the brunt of the real economy and liquidity prospects sensitivities. $3.00 should hold throughout Aug.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos continue being vulnerable – their path ahead is of a slow and steady grind lower, taking on or exceeding prior lows, especially in Bitcoin.
Bears to Have the Last Laugh

Bears to Have the Last Laugh

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.08.2022 15:01
S&P 500 nary consolidated, and continued higher as was most likely. Dollar down, bonds up and the risk appetite was visible very well across real assets especially. Given the weakening in bonds before the closing bell, and the extended position of tech stocks, some real daily consolidation wouldn‘t be that surprising on Monday – I‘m looking for the stock market to stall during August, and to roll over. It‘s still my view that we‘re in a bear market – that a new bull run hasn‘t yet begun – and that a washout in the very least, awaits us. Still before the Sep FOMC.Let‘s come back to the anticipated Wednesday bullish turn, and quote from the lengthy explanation I published Thursday:(...) On one hand, the 75bp rate hike is over, on the other hand less clarity about future rate hikes rules now – markets remained anchored in the now, running with the glass is half full message. The part where Powell mentioned that an aggressive September rate hike is on the table if justified by incoming inflation data (an outsized September one won‘t happen in my view), got less scrutiny. And the same goes for his willingness to tolerate below-trend economic growth and some pain in the labor market. So, why is the market rallying then? The upcoming CPI would come in a bit softer on account of the June gasoline and heating oil peaks, which would be balanced out against unrelenting services inflation. Think rents that are lagging behind the housing prices – housing is only starting to cool down. There is more pain ahead, but of course the consumer discretionaries don‘t see that yet – it‘s not the right time as the consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet filtered through to retail sales. Compared to what awaits at year end, the U.S. economy is still doing very fine now (however incredibly this sounds to the very sensitive small business owners, close to half of who perceive the U.S. already to be in a recession). Coupled with tech layoffs, hiring freezes, and e.g. bad META earnings just in, this weakness isn‘t yet universal as the key aspect of the prior 4 weeks was this – the 100bp rate July hike that I didn‘t trust one bit as coming, took the markets down inordinately (the bears got ahead of themselves simply). Reversion to the mean – talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis – is thus winning.The stock market pendulum has since decidedly swung in the bullish direction, yet I‘m looking for this rally to run out of steam, and roll over. Remember that Powell said that with the 75bp hike, the Fed funds rate is now close to neutral. Sure that inflation is peaking and the following CPI readings would be a little more pleasant deceleration rather than acceleration continuation (PCE at 6.8% annualized is highest since 1982), but the Fed would take the opportunity and try pushing the Fed funds rate a bit above what it sees as the natural rate. And I am not even raising the aspiration to be shrinking the balance sheet by up to the whopping $95bn a month (something similar went on into spring 2019, well after the hikes of 2018 ended), which would cool down the housing market a lot more than it appears to be the projected case now. Also the job market effects would take the unemployment rate noticeably higher, and that would deal with the wage inflation while the cost push one would decelerate, yet service driven one remain unyielding. Simply put, inflation is to cool off somewhat.Apart from macroeconomic reality catching up with the bear market rally, it‘s also earnings projections where I am looking for quite a few downgrades in the 2H 2022. Coupled with the Fed surprising the markets on the balance sheet reduction front (there isn‘t enough attention paid to this yet – let alone to the liquidity withdrawal aftermath), and the deepening yield curve inversion, we‘re in for a lot of recessionary trouble – at the very least teetering on the brink already. Deteriorating consumer sentiment would also cascade into retail sales – coming full circle to the earnings ahead.Precious metals are buying the monetary shift arguably the best, copper is following with certain reservations – but crude oil continues basing, and lagging behind oil stocks. Black gold still has great potential to surprise on the upside (the tail risk) – the Fed can‘t increase supply of anything real, it can just cool down the economy (decrease demand), which they are doing successfully. That‘s the only way given the circumstances how Powell can get inflation somewhat under control.Today, I’m releasing the extended analytical synopsis customarily available for premium subscribers who enjoy some more stocks and bonds charts with observations.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals haven‘t yet met the sellers, but the pace of gains immediately ahead, would slow down. Miners are still lagging, and need to catch up. As yields are likely to retreat, helping the dollar down a little, gold and silver would act on the medium-term advantage.Crude OilCrude oil upper knot is a short-term worrying sign, but has good odds to be gradually overcome. It‘s not a show-stopper but a minor setback. The real economy isn‘t cooling down all that quickly, and the SPR releases obviously don‘t have a lasting or too significant effect.CopperCopper is duly benefiting, the upswing in commodities can continue for a while longer, but the peak in base metals (zinc, nickel etc) tells me that the rest of 2022 would be characterized by slowly declining inflation, especially its part coming from raw materials.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are losing momentum, and even if they put up some fight early Aug, the bears have taken over the reins.
Consolidation Now

Consolidation Now

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.07.2022 16:04
S&P 500 did a brief intraday downswing yesterday – very fast erased. Bonds strong, market breadth further improving, FOMO almost kicking in – and then AAPL and AMZN earnings interpretation provided for a fresh upleg aftermarket. Stock prices are to stall somewhat next, but not to roll over into a new downtrend – not yet. There is time, and early next week isn‘t yet flashing even just amber. Likewise the rally in precious metals is to continue, with miners still ridiculously inexpensive. Crude oil preparing for a new upleg in the $98 area while copper isn‘t giving up just below $3.50 either. Cryptos are signalling a weak entry to today‘s regular session, that‘s all – Monday is going to be a relatively good day across the board should today not turn out peachy (it won‘t be rosy, but won‘t be a disaster either).Today, I’m again releasing (this time very brief) analytical synopsis customarily available for premium subscribers.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is looking good – a bit of backing and filling next wouldn‘t hurt, and the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The reactions to latest earnings, guidance and Fed, had been optimistic, and I see no reason facilitating a sharp reversal early next week.Credit MarketsHYG extended gains, quality debt instruments joined in, yet the risk-on turn is likely to get less pronounced today. It isn‘t over though, but bonds would facilitate a little consolidation in stocks next – one that didn‘t arrive yesterday, but appears knocking on the door timidly today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals posture has significantly brightened up, and the months ahead are looking really good now. Inflation unpleasantly high, yields down, dollar barely up – this is a good constellation. Sensing a Fed pivot.
Bullish Case Explained

Bullish Case Explained

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.07.2022 16:02
S&P 500 slowly rising into the FOMC served to confirm the upcoming bullish interpretation of Fed moves. On one hand, the 75bp rate hike is over, on the other hand less clarity about future rate hikes rules now – markets remained anchored in the now, running with the glass is half full message. The part where Powell mentioned that an aggressive September rate hike is on the table if justified by incoming inflation data (an outsized September one won‘t happen in my view), got less scrutiny. And the same goes for his willingness to tolerate below-trend economic growth and some pain in the labor market. So, why is the market rallying then? The upcoming CPI would come in a bit softer on account of the June gasoline and heating oil peaks, which would be balanced out against unrelenting services inflation. Think rents that are lagging behind the housing prices – housing is only starting to cool down. There is more pain ahead, but of course the consumer discretionaries don‘t see that yet – it‘s not the right time as the consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet filtered through to retail sales. Compared to what awaits at year end, the U.S. economy is still doing very fine now (however incredibly this sounds to the very sensitive small business owners, close to half of who perceive the U.S. already to be in a recession). Coupled with tech layoffs, hiring freezes, and e.g. bad META earnings just in, this weakness isn‘t yet universal as the key aspect of the prior 4 weeks was this – the 100bp rate July hike that I didn‘t trust one bit as coming, took the markets down inordinately (the bears got ahead of themselves simply). Reversion to the mean – talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis – is thus winning.Precious metals are sensing the monetary shift arguably the best – a strong session in the miners is ahead. Even copper is to shine before any sentiment setbacks put the lid upon price gains next again. Crude oil is likely to remain well bid, and any (look for them to be rather shallow) declines are to be reversed relatively fast. As regards cryptos, they would benefit as well, with the most significant appreciation already behind us – there is easier fruit to pick elsewhere, especially in the precious metals that are getting ready for a great autumn ahead.Today, I’ve released all the analytical thoughts customarily available for premium subscribers) so that you know what to expect both before and after turning points, what kind of efforts and preparation do get into these. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is about to continue rising, shaking off the Q2 GDP data in preference of the Fed not going too hawkish. The rich caption says it all.Credit MarketsHYG had duly reversed, and been patiently extending gains going into FOMC – bonds agree with the risk-on interpretation. Time to go up still before worsening reality takes over.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals posture has brightened up, and the months ahead are indeed looking much better now. The reaction to the following Fed jawboning would be telling, but we have a few weeks to go still.
Fed Decides Today! Gold Price, Crude Oil And Bitcoin Price - Charts - 27/07/22

Fed Decides Today! Gold Price, Crude Oil And Bitcoin Price - Charts - 27/07/22

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.07.2022 15:45
S&P 500 declined, but the short-term bullish case is far from lost. There is a stark contrast to yesterday‘s tech earnings as opposed to Walmart or Snapchat lately – shifting focus to the current stage of the economy, which isn‘t that gloomy yet, regardless of the likely negative quarterly GDP figure coming tomorrow. Coupled with the subsequent Yellen press conference, we have a lot of not-a-recession talk to look forward for. After all, the greatest deterioration is in the leading components, and that takes time to seep into coincident indicators – late 2022 pr early 2023 looks to be a better timing for an officially declared recession. With the Fed doing 75bp hike, and no more, the table is set for a relief rally later today, and for getting second thoughts tomorrow (as usual lately, one day after FOMC). More thoughts covering other markets, are available for premium subscribers). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals gave some bullish signals for the short term, but this bottoming process isn‘t over yet – especially in time isn‘t over yet. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t stage a genuine reversal – the turnaround is set to continue. Given how much time has passed since the $93 test, and how far oil stocks have travelled, the bullish case is clear beyond medium term. Copper Copper sure has issues rising, but the willingness to try is there. More time is needed to enable such a move – the macroeconomic factors still speak against betting big on the long side here. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t making progress, and aren‘t following the simmering risk-on sentiment. As stated yesterday, increased focus on all that‘s wrong in the space, doesn‘t help, and the situation isn‘t likely to improve in the short run.
Range Break Ahead

Range Break Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.07.2022 16:09
S&P 500 consolidated in a narrow range yesterday, and didn‘t offer too many clues apart from bonds doing relatively fine – and one more sign pointing towards the likely path of current trading range‘s resolution (reserved for premium subscribers).What the junk bonds are telling here, is that the bears are momentarily a little ahead of themselves – as stated in yesterday‘s key analysis, the tech earnings:(…) wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either.Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. Precious metals don‘t look to have bottomed yet – miners remain too weak, and their decisive upswing on rising volume is the missing ingredient. The situation in crude oil is obviously much brighter – and the same goes for natural gas. Copper is likewise going to see brighter days ahead, riding the (under the hood) risk-on sentiment more reliably than cryptos. The following chart section covers deeper insights into the respective markets.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals don‘t look yet optimistic, and miners need to turn up really – yesterday‘s NEM session was highly disappointing. As said yesterday, unless we see gold to decouple from the dollar or the dollar to roll over, the start of a new PMs upleg is postponed – the Fed needs to get questioned on the still unpleasantly elevated (future) inflation first. Autumn appears a good time for reversal in gold, followed then by silver.Crude OilCrude oil is turning around – this is indeed the most resilient commodity, right after natural gas (sticking with energy). Oil stocks aren‘t lagging badlym which is good – see the progress made since mid July.CopperCopper is about to extend gains, but the red metal isn‘t out of the woods – the base metals as such haven‘t really moved. That‘s a current reflection of the stagflationary reality awaiting a couple of quarters down the road.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t making progress, and are instead decoupling from the simmering risk-on sentiment. Increased focus on all that‘s wrong in the space, doesn‘t help – the bears remain in the driver‘s seat.
A Look At S&P 500, Copper, Bitcoin Price And More - 25/07/22

A Look At S&P 500, Copper, Bitcoin Price And More - 25/07/22

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.07.2022 15:21
S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even cover all this time of upcoming key tech earnings reports. These wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either. Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers. Precious metals are cautiously trying to bottom here, and miners easpecially are weak. Bottoming is a process, and this one doesn‘t look to be over yet. When the dollar reverses to the downside, the selling of gold is bound to stop – we‘re getting there, and the new strong upleg would reflect the still unpleasantly high inflation, lower yields, and further deterioration of economic prospects. Crude oil would still do fine in such an environment as newly dented Fed credibility (coming from the current crowd of the central bank getting inflation under control and engineering soft landing at the same time) would help drive a new upleg in commodities as well. That‘s when we can look forward for better days in copper too. Cryptos in the short run are leaning towards the no slide in risk assets scenarios. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t reverse for good yet – the bulls haven‘t spoken their last word. 50-day moving average is flattening, meaning that the bulls would be gaining short-term advantage each day that prices don‘t meaningfully return below the blue line. Credit Markets I view Friday‘s HYG move as consolidation – the fact that junk bonds are short-term leading higher, is positive for the stock market. One would expect that they would reflect the worsening economic outlook and be avoided, but the imemdiate economic circumstances aren‘t catastrophic. Copper Copper is only relatively resilient, and while it‘s likely to extend Friday‘s gains a little, it‘s far from out of the woods. Further downside or a prolonged sideways consolidation before rising again, is most likely in the medium term. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are deceptively weak today, and the bulls would likely step in next. I‘m not looking for steep gains, but for sideways to gently upwards price action.
A Look At (SPX) S&P 500, Copper And Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Charts - 23/07/22

A Look At (SPX) S&P 500, Copper And Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Charts - 23/07/22

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.07.2022 16:09
S&P 500 recovered from the inial bout of selling, and so did bonds. Whether the risk-on upswing stalls today or next week only, it still looks set to stall as the 50-day moving average would stop stock market bulls before the July Fed. Nothing too striking in the sectoral view yesterday – it‘s though positive that financials had a good day, and oil stocks also did a good job recovering from the early setback. But there is no escaping the earnings downgrades ahead, and the coming move lower can‘t be explained by the adjustment in P/E ratio really. I am cautiously optimistic about yesterday‘s heavy volume in gold as the yellow metal defended $1,680 – waiting for miners to kick into a higher gear. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is looking fine, and the question remains whether it reverses from 4,020s or a bit higher – that‘s still my leading scenario at the moment. Taking a careful look at market breadth next – whether the positive developments discussed in the opening part of today‘s analysis, get stronger or not. Credit Markets HYG is still leaning the bullish way, hasn‘t run out of steam yet. Dollar being unable to keep yesterday‘s modest gains, played a role. Bond markets are likely to stall today, and it would be indicative whether HYG makes further progress or not. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos want to rise, the weekend ahead looks quite fine, which is in line with the idea that stocks wouldn‘t roll over to the downside sharply today.
Peril Approaching

Peril Approaching

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.07.2022 15:02
S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is getting tired, and may roll over either today or next week only. The 50-day moving average is to provide solid resistance, but its power may not kick in precisely today. Anyway, this is a moment to be cautious. VIX agrees, we‘re to turn higher in volatility, and that means stocks resuming the downswing.Credit MarketsHYG looks pretty ominous – I‘m counting on the bulls to give up soon. Coupled with the dollar swinging higher yesterday, the odds start aligning against stock market bulls as much as by the lack of value‘s appreciation.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos refused further upside, and that‘s a sign in its own class. The headwinds are going to toughen, stretching from quite a few real assets into Bitcoin and Ethereum as well.
BTC/USD: Promising Candles Seen On Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC/USD: Promising Candles Seen On Bitcoin Price Chart

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.07.2022 15:37
S&P 500 reached my initial target of 3,940, and turned out indeed slated for premarket consolidation today. No signs of daily weakness either in tech or value – market breadth is improving. The bottom isn‘t yet in as the washout is still ahead – yes, we‘re still in a larger bear market, and the fundamental dynamics of Fed‘s options to fight inflation while the U.S. is still set to avoid recession in the traditional sense of the word, is setting tone. The weakness in consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet translated into declining retail sales, and the July reprieve at the pump (oil prices serve as a shadow Fed funds rate), would go a long way in helping the Fed regain some of the inflation fighter luster lost. More thoughts beyond this immediate stock market are reserved for premium subscribers. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t taken the dollar‘s cue, and that spells more short-term trouble. Not even volume is coming back to gold really. Miners to gold ratio is at least going sideways already – we have quite a few more weeks of tested patience and pain in the metals before the new upleg starts developing. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising very modestly, and needs more days backing and filling before conquering $105 again. The volume continues favoring the bulls – this week would be good. Copper Copper is turning around only in the short-term. The red metal would participate in the risk-on upswing unfolding, but underperform – it‘s still vulnerable to a takedown. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t looking bad at all today – probably the key sign is that Bitcoin or Ethereum aren‘t declining. This is another chart (similarly to stocks and bonds) looking for fresh buyers so that the upswing can continue a little longer.
(SPX) S&P 500, Copper And (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Chart

(SPX) S&P 500, Copper And (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Chart

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.07.2022 15:44
S&P 500 gave up opening gains, a bit too easily. The 3,880s didn‘t hold, and bonds lost their risk-on posture. Yields rose, but the dollar declined – and the greenback doesn‘t look to be out of the woods even though I‘m looking for it to top out and roll over later than in July still. Apart from bonds, one good reason why stocks bulls aren‘t yet done, is the good performance of value (in spite of the darkening clouds in financials). More thoughts regarding the immediate stock market are reserved for premium subscribers. Keeping in mind the key macro thoughts from yesterday‘s extensive analysis: (…) Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture. True, economic growth is slowing, and we are likely to get a slightly negative Q2 GDP reading, but given the way GDP is constructed (this setback would be driven by inventories and trade balance), I don‘t see NBER as likely to declare the U.S. to be in a recession. Europe, that‘s another story entirely – in the worst case that the Fed doesn‘t succeed in its soft landing, we‘re looking at an early 2023 U.S. recession – regardless of the housing turmoil gathering steam, the States are largely insulated from the darkening clouds worldwide. I‘m looking for a quite good Q4 of S&P 500 gains, but at the same time, remember that the current bottoming is a process, and I view the approaching washout (give it 2 weeks to start roughly) as the likeliest scenario still. So, enjoy the positive seasonality of a few good weeks of July still ahead. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is at a crossroads, the fate of which would be decided in the first half of today‘s session. I‘m looking for moderate degree of optimism, paring back a great deal of yesterday‘s setback. It would be highly encouraging should value again do better than tech. Copper Copper isn‘t surprising on the upside, and little wonder – I would personally wait for the dust to settle, and load up the truck on the next wave of capitulation. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t looking bad at all – we are likely to see increased volume with downswing rejection aka indecision today. So far so good.
Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze

Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.07.2022 22:46
S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase, it was (and will be) up to tech to outperform value. Also healthcare is likely to see brighter times ahead. If I were to pick two reasons for why I think stocks are bottoming here, it would be the risk-on turn in bonds accompanied by the 10-year yield soundly below 3.25%, and the capitulation in oil stocks (former star performer as these are likely to get pulled down among the last sectors while the key laggards such as tech are on the verge of starting to outperform) coupled with oil holding my $93 support. Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture. [This is approximately where I do imagine the end of freely available introduction of extensive articles, which would then be enriched with select chart section(s). Today exceptionally and only, I‘ll be making the full introduction available so that you can see what kind of a key analysis the premium subscribers get.] True, economic growth is slowing, and we are likely to get a slightly negative Q2 GDP reading, but given the way GDP is constructed (this setback would be driven by inventories and trade balance), I don‘t see NBER as likely to declare the U.S. to be in a recession. Europe, that‘s another story entirely – in the worst case that the Fed doesn‘t succeed in its soft landing, we‘re looking at an early 2023 U.S. recession – regardless of the housing turmoil gathering steam, the States are largely insulated from the darkening clouds worldwide. I‘m looking for a quite good Q4 of S&P 500 gains, but at the same time, remember that the current bottoming is a process, and I view the approaching washout (give it 2 weeks to start roughly) as the likeliest scenario still. So, enjoy the positive seasonality of a few good weeks of July still ahead. Precious metals don‘t like the strong dollar and tightening prospects ahead, and Powell essentially saying that if having to go into recession is the price of breaking inflation (breaking as in realisitcally driving it to 4-5% annualized), then so be it, doesn‘t help either. The Fed would be certainly in a more difficult position than it‘s in currently if the job market got weaker – having looked at the deceptively allegedly strong non-farm payrolls, something doesn‘t add up with the low figure of hours worked really. In short, this isn‘t yet time for any metals – on the Fed pause in hiking with September being the last one, brighter days are ahead to start the autumn in both precious metals and copper. Makes sense for the Fed to get tougher now, because getting tougher later would be much harder to execute. Crude oil has likely turned up from $93, but the upcoming upswing would be a labored one. For all the reasons given in today‘s rich chart commentaries, I‘m looking for the next upswing in commodities to be energy-driven. Finally cryptos are likely to modestly participate in the risk-on turn developing (it would positively affect both paper and real assets), before the bears reappear relatively shortly (again around 2 weeks, perhaps a bit less) again. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is powered to go higher next, and I‘m looking for 4,000 to be reached again. While tech isn‘t yet clearly outperforming, this is going to change – especially later in the second half of 2022. Credit Markets HYG upswing is likewise only starting – the bond reprieve is very welcome, and it would be a fresh downleg in bonds (with 10-year yield breaking 3.25%) that would make me concerned as regards the prospects of a good finish to 2022 throughout positive Q4. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t yet bottoming, the momentum has picked up since I last talked the sector, miners are down, and the miners to gold ratio hasn‘t yet turned. As the hawkish Fed turns neutral, a fresh upleg awaits. For now, leaner weeks are still ahead – the pain isn‘t over yet. Crude Oil Crude oil is turning the corner, and I‘m most optimistic about this part of the commodity sector. When the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) stops being dumped into the market, prices would return to the uptrend with more ease. Not looking yet for a sharp appreciation, for that (similarly to other real assets), the dollar has to top first – we‘re getting near, and I‘m looking for September to be that time of greenback rolling over. Copper Copper lived up to my expectations of being the weakest of the weak – still. The reversal isn‘t yet on the table, reflecting the troubled real economy outlook just ahead. Not yet the time to buy even though we‘re likely to drift slowly upwards from here, in tandem with stocks. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning up, and that provides a confirmation of the developing risk-on turn, with positive implications beyond Nasdaq and bond prices. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this endeavor possible! Thank you, Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading SignalsOil Trading SignalsCopper Trading SignalsBitcoin Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
How Have Precious Metals Reacted To The US Inflation Data?

How Have Precious Metals Reacted To The US Inflation Data?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.07.2022 14:55
S&P 500 might be getting a little ahead of itself in the very short-term – the price decline looks in need of some really brief consolidation. Bonds have likewise paused, and the retreat in Treasury yields that I told you about would happen first, is unfolding. The 10-year one closed below 3%, and with the focus slowly but surely to shift some more from inflation to the deteriorating real economy and job market, I‘m expecting yields to decline still (before turning up longer term again). The Fed hasn‘t yet pivoted – and for the next couple of sessions won‘t. - but the pressure on raising rates by much, is slowly receding Precious metals (and copper) don‘t like the retreat in inflation data (PCE deflator) and inflation expectations – coupled with the real economy prospects, these are to suffer, with gold being relatively, relatively most resilient (which wouldn‘t protect it from declining of course). Unlike crude oil where I remain of bullish persuasion when it comes to the two possible correction scenarios described earlier (the fight for $108.50 talked yesterday, is on). Yesterday, I got an interesting question on what actual value retail traders provide to the markets. If you‘re also wondering, have a look at my take in the first and second part of the reply – it‘ll resonate. In connection with the Nov 12, 2021 legal update on my homepage, the key main hearing is to continue shortly. Demanding event involving long travels – I’ll be issuing only brief updates for the nearest 5 trading days. I won’t be able to provide any analyses, updates or many Twitter activities between Jul 11-15. Looking forward for my return to serving you on Jul 18! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The caption says it all – S&P 500 is pausing somewhat, and looking for the next short-term direction – the lower knot I wrote above yesterday, materialized. Consolidation of the steep turn to the downside that I caught for you, is in order. Credit Markets Bonds are taking a break in the strong risk-off posture, and that‘s likely to coincide with the reprieve in stocks. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Turning the Screws

Turning the Screws

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.06.2022 15:44
S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe caption says it all – S&P 500 is primed to decline some more, and unlike yesterday when I was looking for a little counter trend move first, today‘s expectations are of a day in red with insufficient buying into the close, creating a lower knot.Credit MarketsBonds are very risk-off, and the disconnect between quality debt instruments and junk bonds can be counted on to persist, even increase until stocks bottom.Gold and SilverPrecious metals haven‘t formed the bottom yet – miners keep acting weak, which is concerning. The prospects of two 75bp rate hikes are biting but if there‘s anything worth holding alongside paper and crypto shorts, it‘s namely gold and crude oil.Crude OilSetback for a couple of days, that‘s the most likely conclusion. Another upleg is on the way unless we break convincingly below $108.50 – the most optimistic scenario is that the bulls keep defending it.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
More Fresh Profits

More Fresh Profits

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.06.2022 15:22
S&P 500 decisively turned around, and declined powerfully. The short entry was well placed, and open profits are likely to grow still before the bottom is reached. What we‘re likely to experience next, is tech-driven brief reprieve, which would help cushion heavy S&P 500 downside temporarily. The stock market downswing hasn‘t run its course though today‘s rising real asset prices would help the bulls temporarily.The dollar of course isn‘t really retreating, and neither the pressure on the Fed to raise, is relenting – yet precious metals keep holding up reasonably well. Is there a quiet money flow underway, one that sees long-dated Treasuries benefiting as well? I think so, and come autumn, this would become obvious. Crude oil apparently hasn‘t peaked either, no matter what those focusing solely on the real economy prospects say – remember, black gold is the one to top last, and I hadn‘t seen a decent spike yet. Time to go, for quite a few weeks more – and let the open profits grow too.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe caption says it all – S&P 500 is primed to decline some more, but I‘m looking for a little counter trend move first. Odds are the bulls won‘t make it far.Credit MarketsBonds turned risk-off, and soundly so. Especially the HYG move holds great promise. As you can see, the TLT downswing is in its latter innings, and in need of some consolidation (one that would coincide with deteriorating economic data showing so) first.Crude OilOil is turning up, the next consolidation to arrive, would happen above the 50-day moving average. I like oil stocks having come to life (against the background of steep stock market decline) particularly.Bitcoin and EthereumBusiness as usual in cryptos – business just as lately. See how far Stochastics has risen while prices are already turning down. The weeks ahead appear one hell of a ride.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) Has Gone Up A Little Bit - Is An Uptrend Coming?

S&P 500 (SPX) Has Gone Up A Little Bit - Is An Uptrend Coming?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.06.2022 15:59
S&P 500 bull couldn‘t extend gains on Monday, and credit markets don‘t look too optimistic. One more hooray before the bears take over? That‘s my working hypothesis. Whatever gains right after the open the bulls manage to achieve, would likely be reversed relatively fast – perhaps even later this session. I don‘t think the consumer confidence data would paint an optimistic picture – a picture that the market would react optimistically to, said precisely. „Bad is the new good“- no, this mantra hasn‘t yet kicked in, and the dive to the yesterday discussed target, would take over. If you had been with me for quite a while already, you know that I was talking early July as my leading scenario for a stock market bottom. So far so good. Precious metals keep unsurprisingly going sideways, and commodities are having a good day today – the open oil positions are solidly in the black. Even copper is resilient on a daily basis, but I am not yet sounding the all clear – more economic slowdown and disinflationary currents are under way, no matter how much bringing the inflation down sounds are overhyped. Cryptos lackluster performance goes on, without much of a short-term chance of a turnaround on the horizon. As stated yesterday: (…) The big picture hasn‘t changed, and it‘s one of decreasing liquidity and the Fed being bound to surprise on the hawkish side down the road. That helps explain precious metals resilience (as always stating lately, that‘s gold and miners) while silver and especially copper bear the brunt of economic challenges. The red metals doesn‘t look to be done on the downside – contrasted with crude oil set to continue rising without much looking back, and natural gas having a very shallow, high priced and interesting summer „off season“ - wonder what‘s in store for the winter prices (up, up). Agrifoods are setting up a nice entry point with corn having turned already, and wheat about to do the same. Cryptos would continue struggling, of course – it‘s quite impossible to be bullish there. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Troubled spot for the S&P 500 bulls – time is running out, and the credit market support is weakening. Time for some quick window dressing. Credit Markets The low volume behind HYG downswing is the only thing to be „cheerful“ about. The bulls will be lucky if they don‘t get summarily rejected $75, which probably translates into the stock rally not having all that much time left. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
A Look At Charts: S&P 500 (SPX), Crude Oil Price, Copper

A Look At Charts: S&P 500 (SPX), Crude Oil Price, Copper

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.06.2022 15:58
S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening). Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines. The big picture hasn‘t changed, and it‘s one of decreasing liquidity and the Fed being bound to surprise on the hawkish side down the road. That helps explain precious metals resilience (as always stating lately, that‘s gold and miners) while silver and especially copper bear the brunt of economic challenges. The red metals doesn‘t look to be done on the downside – contrasted with crude oil set to continue rising without much looking back, and natural gas having a very shallow, high priced and interesting summer „off season“ - wonder what‘s in store for the winter prices (up, up). Agrifoods are setting up a nice entry point with corn having turned already, and wheat about to do the same. Cryptos would continue struggling, of course – it‘s quite impossible to be bullish there. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The upswing can, and will run on – given the pace, I‘m not looking for its overly fast reversal. The rally off the lows is though more than halfway through, and I‘m not looking at it to beat the 50-day moving average. Credit Markets Bonds turned risk-on, and in spite of the HYG intraday pullback, they have higher to run still. I‘m though looking for HYG to gradually stall, and start declining. TLT is for now merely reconciling the hawkish policy expectations with decreasing economic prospects. Crude Oil Oil is turning up, and has quite places to run still. Should it break $125 in the weeks ahead eventually, the road to $150 is open – all before significant demand destruction kicks in. The consumer has been really resilient when faced with $5 gas – the sentiment alone won‘t be able to sink this market just yet. Copper This isn‘t a bottom in my view, not yet – the red metal has further to decline, and is leading the commodity index to the downside, which doesn‘t speak of bright economic prospects. Again, this is a period of relative normalcy – the economic deterioration would take time to develop, and will be aided by the Fed‘s tightening heavily. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Against the Odds

Against the Odds

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.06.2022 13:26
S&P 500 overdue relief rally – flat, lacking significant momentum, not internally at its strongest – is here. Instead of projecting any healthy bear market rally targets (numbers around 10% are often thrown around), I‘m afraid that time it takes to ignite, would become a larger concern for the bulls. True, not enough have been sucked in, but buy the dip mentality is still there – we‘re now at a crossroads between either a very shallow reprieve protracted in time, or going more than a couple dozen points higher still. Just when the trap is ready, sellers would show up – the sentiment is still relatively bearish though – and that‘s an ally of today‘s bulls.Similarly to the precious metals, the risks of being out of the market outweigh those of being in. Just as I‘m not counting on a true slide in gold (or even silver, where the outlook is worse) no matter the miners‘ weakness, I think in stocks the rally would give way to a fresh downleg. Yesterday‘s 3,740s aren‘t a demonstration of convincing strength – liquidity keeps biting. I don‘t see the dollar as retreating much. Treasuries are lifting the pressure on the Fed to hike somewhat, but this reprieve looks to be temporary. The retreat in commodities isn‘t lighting up the fuse beneath value, and tech doesn‘t react to yields declining – something is amiss here, and would become apparent in the next 2%+ red day.Cryptos keep highlighting the woes – there is no tide to lift all boats anymore. Once the Fed repo facilities rush gets complemented by money market fund inflows, we‘re in for another tightening engine firing up. The incentive is there, the move not yet so – which could change as fast as inflation expectations becoming (having become) unanchored. Crude oil still doesn‘t have topped, and similarly to my recent copper turn, crude oil is panning out well.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookStill the short-term possibility with room overhead, but it would be up to the internals to decide the upswing‘s fate. The 3,830s zone is getting tested, and bulls would likely close above it today.Credit MarketsBonds look tired, and the quality ones haven‘t risen nearly enough. This is so different from the prior bear market rally circumstances...Crude OilOil got too cheap, too fast – while there isn‘t enough (there isn‘t any) systemic deterioration in the real economy (or finance) to speak of just yet. Sellers are disappearing – and the tide is ready to turn.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
A Look At S&P 500, Crude Oil And Copper | Monica Kingsley

A Look At S&P 500, Crude Oil And Copper | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.06.2022 15:48
Deterioration, that is – be it in S&P 500 market breadth or the jobs data. More to come, obviously, the disappearing liquidity is making itself felt broadly, and the real economy weakness hasn‘t yet arrived in earnest. This is still the environment of relatively fine but perceptibly slowing growth where technical recession can be declared as in, literally any moment (thanks to monetary tightening). Notably, we never escaped manufacturing recession in similar circumstances, and I had been clear on the hard landing realities recognition to spread like wildfire in the mainstream over the months to come. So far, no signs of systemic risk – but real estate and commodities are feeling the pinch seriously already. VIX is also trending higher rather continuously – the 25 level was indeed vigorously defended by the bears. That has all facilitated yesterday‘s sharp turn in my calls, namely in putting the spread trades to rest. Gold is treading patiently while cryptos can‘t obviously take off. Forces of short-term gravity are taking over.... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Promising upper knot, very promising. Maybe the 3,830s zone wouldn‘t be even tested – all that‘s needed, is for bonds to cooperate. And given the dollar showing today, it‘s perfectly imaginable. Credit Markets The much awaited turn in long-dated Treasuries higher, is here. That‘s where the engine of further recognition of darkening skies in stocks, would come from. HYG is slowly getting the message, and it would be great if it led to the downside now. Crude Oil Crude oil is pausing, making up its mind – the backdrop is richly described in the caption. Energy certainly holds better very short-term prospects than base metals or even some agrifoods. Copper Economically sensitive commodities are losing altitude, a bit too readily. That‘s a sign of more downside to come, and copper is arguably the best example thereof. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Time Running Out

Time Running Out

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.06.2022 14:23
S&P 500 rally didn‘t catch second breath before the closing bell, and bonds aren‘t favoring it to continue. There is no risk-on constellation anymore, and the broad selloff on growth slash recession worries, has driven both oil and copper down from their botom searching patterns. Treasuries are also demanding more action from the Fed, and the central bank would oblige. I expect Powell to downplay the effects on real economy. Not good, and the speed of recent price action – especially when the failure to gain similar traction to stocks in recent days – is considered. Precious metals are to keep up best, and I mean gold and miners here. Cryptos and economically sensitive commodities are to remain under pressure, and the failure of oil to put in a floor yesterday, is worrying. Gotta respect the price action even though black gold hasn‘t peaked, and a much bigger crisis is brewing – one not to be solved with some gas tax holidays.For the full macro details, please check yesterday‘s extensive analysis if you haven‘t done so already.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookToday‘s closing prices would reveal sharp and ongoing deterioration. The reprieve is over after a few measly days.Credit MarketsSetting the tone, setting the tone – and it‘s one of shrinking liquidity – but the turn in long-dated Treasuries higher, is approaching. It‘ll be in recognition of darkening economic prospects.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals sector would hold up best, gold with miners look cushioned against further declines. Namely given the following charts‘ posture.Crude OilCrude oil had the hallmarks of a local bottom, and given that it‘s not holding in today‘s trading, the Powell testimony is likely to add to the short-term pressure regardless of China being hungry for more black gold.CopperFor many weeks, I had the greatest reservations about copper, and its chart posture has turned ugly. I don‘t see the Fed pivoting yet, or markets moderating their downswings in anticipation thereof.Bitcoin and EthereumThis bottom searching isn‘t over, and cryptos are likely to keep declining, which has been in line with one of my calls of late.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX), Crude Oil And Copper Charts Show Red Candles On The Right Hand Side!

S&P 500 (SPX), Crude Oil And Copper Charts Show Red Candles On The Right Hand Side!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.06.2022 15:42
S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth. I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come. Home prices would decline, consumer discretionaries, tech and communications would suffer. Even materials did this week. The only question is when would the Fed back off tightening – given that the very temporary peak in inflation with May data didn‘t happen, the central bank can be counted on being restrictive for good four next meetings. While that wouldn‘t break inflation to the almost forgotten 2% target obviously, the result would be its decrease to 5% or slightly less if they stay the course, which would be accompanied counterintuitively by lower yields (yes, I‘m looking for quality debt instruments to turn up, which would be analogical to what we saw after peaking yields of 2007). Yes, supply chain issues will persist well into 2023, and China would come back online. When it comes to currencies, the euro and yen would feel most heat – especially in Europe as a sign of recession approaching faster than in the U.S., the local stock markets are trading at considerably lesser multiples of forward looking earnings, and also the bond spreads between Germany and countries such as Italy are widening. In the U.S., the skies aren‘t getting too cloudy yet. So, in this period of uncertainty – uncertainty driven by the Fed‘s tightening and the still growing balance at its repo facilities – the task is to prosper both in the disinflation to come, and in the recession approaching. One way to do that would be betting on the dollar, long-dated Treasuries, being still in commodities, and having exposure only to select stocks (namely energy and agricultural stocks). Even though base metals (that‘s copper, aluminum etc) are and will be suffering, precious metals are likely to keep well bid, and then start rising again. Crude oil hasn‘t yet topped either – the dust after Friday‘s steep selloff would settle as I don‘t see either demand declining or supply rising this year – we aren‘t in a manufacturing recession yet (that would come towards the end of 2022). Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks: crude oil: and copper: Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
About That Soft Landing

About That Soft Landing

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.06.2022 16:05
While there are holidays today, I wanted to present you with a preview of tomorrow‘s extensive analysis – as regards stocks and the conomy:(…) S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth.I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come. On Tuesday, I‘ll cover the ways to play it – which assets are to remain under pressure and which would still rise. So far, this is the model $50K portfolio measuring my market calls‘ efficiency (closed trades, no fees, no taxes). Weekend trading continues in cryptos, and the charts (courtesy of Stockcharts.com) are now offering more than a glimmer of short-term hope.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Little Reprieve

Little Reprieve

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.06.2022 16:01
S&P 500 likely put in a short-term bottom, and the fresh long position is profitable from the get-go. Bonds offered the first promising signs, and so far only value has acted upon it – that provides more fuel to the upcoming relief rally. TLT performance was good, but seeing even higher volume would be more convincing regarding the rally‘s longevity. Especially since the dollar is rising again – the yen carry trade can go on. Even cryptos are having a good day today so far, meaning we have a bit more to run still.That bodes well for real assets too – both gold and silver caught a solid bid yesterday, and GDX lagging behind is balanced out by NEM outperforming. The precious metals skies are slowly brightening, and not even another 75bp hike looks being able to sink them. Deteriorating real economy data would underpin them more so than crude oil. All the demand destruction isn‘t yet in, and black gold would adjust to the arriving economy growth softpatch – but we haven‘t seen the spike yet. Anyway, it‘s worthwhile to tread cautiously with the whole portfolio because the tightening phase, the pressure on the Fed isn‘t relenting all that much. The greater shock would come from having to adjust the still overly rosy economic growth projections to the downside over the nearest months. That‘s keeping a lid on copper and base metals, which would have a chance of turning around only after gold truly obviously to everyone does.Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:bonds:and crude oil:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Not Buying It

Not Buying It

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.06.2022 16:03
S&P 500 recovered in the wake of soothing Powell conference but his words are being doubted. Inflation expectations aren‘t taking a dive on 75bp hike – catching this runaway horse now would be harder than a year ago. Financials, real estate and homebuilders are to feel the pinch increasingly more – a nice indication of the tough winds comes from lumber, which has halved in 2022. It‘s little comforting that junk corporate bonds aren‘t outdoing stocks on the downside relatively speaking – the credit default swaps on stocks I told you about weeks ago, both are and have caught up with stock prices, with the next pressure to come from earnings. The vocal denials that the economy isn‘t entering recession, kind of confirm tougher sailing ahead.And the next 50 or 75bp hike is to solve that, seriously? I have stated that once 3.25% is pierced on the 10-year Treasury, things can start moving fast – and bond yields have quite some bearing on stock prices. For now, the economic growth worriess haven‘t yet kicked in – the markets aren‘t yet even thinking about thinking (to paraphrase last year‘s famous words) frontronning the Fed‘s dovish turn. It‘s getting serious out there, and the crypto fate illustrates that amply. Copper is searching for a double bottom while precious metals are still sideways. Given the largest hike in decades, that‘s promising medium-term. Crude oil is taking it on the chin as well – sign of consolidation, which will be worthwhile buying in its own time. For now, all the tightening hasn‘t resulted yet in significant demand destruction. Good to have taken oil profits off the table at $122 – together with stocks, this has helped to push the model $50K portfolio of early 2021 over $300K (minus costs of trading and taxes).Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:and precious metals:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Will They Or Won‘t They

Will They Or Won‘t They

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.06.2022 15:53
S&P 500 is gyrating with the the Fed rate hike speculation – 50 or 75bp? Treasuries are still demanding a higher one now and more later as inflation hasn‘t even temporarily slowed down. But there was a moderate risk-on turn in bonds, which looks like facilitating the pause within the stock market decline on the FOMC today, meaning we could see a little bounce, which would be reasonable to sell into on its exhaustion (with a tight stop loss unless I change the rough game plan for the intraday traders reading). Things sure start with locking in sizable open short profits.Precious metals had a bad day yesterday, and together with copper were indeed short-term bearish, but just one Fed meeting would be enough for an intraday reversal (when they announce backing off tightening, float more than gentle focus on supporting real economy growth, or voice concerns about the job market health). Even with their models, this would become obvious just in time for autumn – it must be said though that the current tightening (and markets frontrunning that especially) is helping to dent commodities, with metals suffering the most. Crude oil looks to be ranging, and a good stop-loss protected open profits yesterday. If you haven‘t already, please check more on my style and philosophy so as to make the most of the daily analyses.Overall, I‘m looking for a little risk-on reprieve – an upswing attempt unless the Fed turns up with really hawkish messaging that at least meets market expectations. Odds are they would approach meeting these, and how convincing is going to be the message and the delivery, will influence market reaction – I‘m not looking for a bullish stunner today, but for a corrective move that goes sideways to a somewhat upwards. That would concern both paper and real assets, together with cryptos (to a lesser degree) in spite of all the Binance issues indicating that much is happening under the surface there.Finally, remember that no matter how much tightening, markets are forward looking – and those beaten down real assets would just at some point start ignoring higher yields. Even before the Fed telegraphs anything...Let‘s get into the key richly annotated charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:and cryptos:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The Whirlwind

The Whirlwind

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.06.2022 16:01
S&P 500 selloff came – a juicy and profitable one. Bond market posture continues being negative, with no intraday comeback sticking. The pressure on the Fed is raised to the degree of 75bp hike expectation this week – the Fed would have to get more aggressive alongside other central banks if it wants to get some chance at taming inflation. It was precisely this market demand that caused the dollar to rise sharply yesterday as well. At this time, with so many gaps on sharply rising volume, both tech and value are taken to the cleaners – and neither finance nor real estate enjoy that bearish trend. What I‘ve talked about in recent weeks and months, is unfolding in a fastforward way.The temporary capitulation can come on the Fed – while I don‘t expect Powell to sugarcoat anything (and I look for him to rather talk a tough inflation game than offer real economy support), the heavy selling is likely to pause. Even precious metals got caught up, and couldn‘t keep up the promising daily outperformance of Friday – this is what happens when everything gets sold indiscriminately, including commodities. Copper with silver are to suffer the most in the current, squeezed hard, environment – reflecting the real economy deterioration and vigorous mainstream denials of an approaching recession...Let‘s get into the key richly annotated charts for today – precious metals:and copper:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The Breakdown

The Breakdown

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.06.2022 15:56
S&P 500 didn‘t regain any footing at all – the CPI casting verdict on even very temporary notion of inflation peak, was strong in its implications for it increases the pressure on the Fed to do more. Not something, but more – more rate raising. Now, we have talk of 75bp rate hike emerging, and not even a series of hitherto unimaginable hikes would do the job of breaking (practically speaking) double digit inflation. The window of opportunity for the Fed to act before it needs to turn around and support the real economy, is narrowing – little has changed since last week‘s key analysis. And Treasuries keep demanding more, risking that the Fed‘s turn would not come when manufacturing growth reaches stall speed, but when it‘s already negative.That would mean recession, possibly more than mere two quarterly GDP prints going negative. Another obvious consequence would be for the stock market bottom timing – the longer a series of meaningful rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking the Fed is forced into, the more liquidity disappears, and I would be presenting pockets of relative strength within a declining financial universe only. Yes, not even commodities would escape unscathed – they are usually last to peak. And that‘s what we‘re seeing now – crude oil has still quite a few weeks and more than a couple of dollars higher to run. I hope you enjoyed the great profits in black gold – portfolio chart performance is at new highs with the model $50K account after 16 months standing at over $260K – see my homepage. And open short profits in the stock market keep growing.Friday also brought precious metals outperformance – decoupling on a daily basis as the confidence in the Fed gets questioned. Miners were up on a strong volume – the cracks in the dam are appearing, and precious metals are to benefit. Gold especially as both silver and then copper are to be lagging due to souring real economy prospects. Just have a look at central banks lately – Australia, India raising above expectations, ECB also to start its taper. The coming Fed actions would destroy a lot of demand, seeking to get inflation under control eventually – and these risk a recession, narrowing U.S. trade deficit says already. Besides the stock market woes being not over (the downswing is likely to continue as volume doesn‘t indicate bottom in place in the least), let me present three richly annotated real asset charts to illustrate where we are at the moment – precious metals:crude oil:and copper:Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) And HYG Have Decreased | Monica Kingsley

S&P 500 (SPX) And HYG Have Decreased | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.06.2022 13:33
S&P 500 took decisively to the downside late yesterday, and credit markets followed. No risk-on positioning, but selling across the board broadly translating into stock market weakness. Great for the bears, let the open profits grow. How about today‘s CPI – would the reasonably hot data be viewed as an opprotunity to buy? Very counterintuitive but the dip buyers also appeared right after yesterday‘s open. My primary scenario remains that any buying would fizzle out as we have lower lows to make still in this downswing – nothing against bear market rallies, but we‘re too early on in the tightening, and there is still much focus on inflation as opposed on the increasing real aconomy pain when manufacturing growth can grind to a standstill over the next few months easily. The tough headwinds in positioning for today, can be seen in precious metals and cryptos – setbacks in both as the market pressure on the Fed to raise, goes on. Even the ECB indicated that it‘s a journey beyond July – big words from eurozone on sunsetting negative interest rates. Coupled with crude oil resilience around $122, the odds continue favoring stock market bears. Before wishing you a great weekend, two charts to illustrate that amply - stocks: and bonds: Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Price (SPX), Gold And.... Bitcoin (!?) Seems To Be Steady, Crude Oil Is Climbing | Monica Kingsley

S&P 500 Price (SPX), Gold And.... Bitcoin (!?) Seems To Be Steady, Crude Oil Is Climbing | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.06.2022 15:50
S&P 500 declined, within the existing narrow range, but more downside is likely to come. Bonds continue pointing lower, commodities are squeezing, yields aren‘t meaningfully retreating, and inflation keeps biting. As stated yesterday: (…) So, stocks are still facing the tightening Fed phase, not yet smelling the Fed pivot – the downside can reach further still, and the new battle for 4,080 is approaching. Odds are we would head that way before mid-session tomorrow – today, I‘m looking for a lackluster, paring the gains, session in stocks. And that holds true for precious metals as well – Monday‘s decline was duly reversed, and copper is carving out a local bottom as we speak. Crude oil is of course offering only shallow corrections, and didn‘t make it much below $117.50. Energy keeps running, and it ain‘t over by a long shot – when it comes to time though, I‘m looking for the rally to last a few short months more before taking even greater toll toll on the real economy, and starting to decline somewhat. Cryptos are refusing to decline much, and that illustrates the current balance of power nicely – larger moves are unlikely. Friday‘s CPI awaits, and it would likely show limited Fed room to back off tightening – Treasuries aren‘t waiting, and keep requesting more rate hikes. The daily price action between different maturities illustrates the building strains. In this environment, sticking with real assets while favoring the short side in stock indices, is the reasonable positioning. The point of today‘s analysis is to assess the shape markets are in right at the ECB forestaste of dealing with inflation – distinguishing the verbal and real moves, and market sensitivities. Plainly stated, how much these doubt the newfound inflation fighting spirit in the face of deteriorating economic data... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are readying another charge – odds are the current price congestion would resolve to the downside. Too much underperformance in the high beta plays. Credit Markets This isn‘t a risk-on turn, there is still some bottom searching to be done. Tightening, that‘s still the name of the game – not enough worries about growth prospects yet. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still sideways, waiting for a catalyst to start looming. Countdown is on, and the risks of being out of the market outweigh those of being in. Crude Oil Crude oil keeps moving higher, and it‘s little surprising. Still no peak – I‘m looking for the climb to continue in a relatively narrow range where dips are to be bought. Copper Copper is also lagging, but at least the panic selling is over – with more focus on the monetary turn ahead and stockpile dynamics, the red metal would start recovering, gradually first. Lean times ahead for now. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t convincing in the least – that‘s another market in trouble. Biting global liquidity – the bottom isn‘t yet in. Summary S&P 500 is likely to get weaker as increasingly dull economic and monetary data keep arriving. The coming 4,080 break to the downside would be just the start – the path of getting there remains slow, but the direction is clear, bonds say. Semiconductors, smallcaps, financials, you name it – these shouldn‘t underperform in a bull upleg. And that means we aren‘t in one (my words continuously) – the bottom hasn‘t yet been reached, and the relative lull (bear market rally) is in its latter innings. As commodities continue surging, crude oil is leading – stocks can‘t meaningfully bottom without oil rolling over first. Not happening now or in the weeks ahead – precious metals and copper are waiting patiently for their turn to shine. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Seems To Feel Better. Investors Are Thinking Of ECB Meeting And Its Consequences. Do Crypto Stay Strong? US CPI Is Released On Fridays

S&P 500 Seems To Feel Better. Investors Are Thinking Of ECB Meeting And Its Consequences. Do Crypto Stay Strong? US CPI Is Released On Fridays

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.06.2022 14:23
S&P 500 recovered opening setback fast, and daily volume slightly increased. Bonds though didn‘t follow in the enthusiasm nearly as much – the short-term stock market balance is tight, but I expect the bears to show their upper hand in the run up to tomorrow‘s ECB moves. Even the eurozone (some might say especially the eurozone) has to join in to some degree in the tightening – the Yellen admissions of getting the transitory inflation wrong, are impossible to miss. If you had known me since time immemorial, you had been ready as I covered this first in mid 2020, calling for inflation to be persistent and running. So, stocks are still facing the tightening Fed phase, not yet smelling the Fed pivot – the downside can reach further still, and the new battle for 4,080 is approaching. Odds are we would head that way before mid-session tomorrow – today, I‘m looking for a lackluster, paring the gains, session in stocks. And that holds true for precious metals as well – Monday‘s decline was duly reversed, and copper is carving out a local bottom as we speak. Crude oil is of course offering only shallow corrections, and didn‘t make it much below $117.50. Energy keeps running, and it ain‘t over by a long shot – when it comes to time though, I‘m looking for the rally to last a few short months more before taking even greater toll toll on the real economy, and starting to decline somewhat. Cryptos are refusing to decline much, and that illustrates the current balance of power nicely – larger moves are unlikely. Friday‘s CPI awaits, and it would likely show limited Fed room to back off tightening – Treasuries aren‘t waiting, and keep requesting more rate hikes. The daily price action between different maturities illustrates the building strains. In this environment, sticking with real assets while favoring the short side in stock indices, is the reasonable positioning. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
On Collision Course

On Collision Course

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.06.2022 13:27
S&P 500 reversed right on the waiting entry order, and open short profits can be expected to grow. The Sunday warning about bonds is turning out prescient – the pause in bond yields didn‘t last long, inflation expectations are untamed, and the pressure on the Fed to keep tightening, is on. By the tech and value candles‘ shape, trouble is brewing – the next downleg is ready to unfold, probably earlier than Thursday‘s ECB press conference. Not that I would be looking for long-lasting and demonstrably credible hawkish turn, but for attempts to jawbone the rising yield differentials on the eurozone periphery. Friday‘s CPI data though can be counted on to deliver a catalyst – the medium-term downtrend in stocks is well established.Precious metals are providing a short-term conflicting view – gold and miners down while silver went up. That‘s daily white noise in my view, and we can look for a stronger day in the yellow metal today (to make up for yesterday‘s poorer showing). Well, the dollar and yields rose, but gold is holding in a nice consolidation, well bid and ready to launch higher at moment‘s notice.Copper is still retracing Thursday‘s sharp upswing as the sellers‘ power is waning – sideways consolidation would come next, giving way to a directional move. Depending upon the straits of the real economy and Fed moves anticipation, its path would be decided, and odds are it would lead slowly higher. Crude oil hasn‘t yet peaked by a long shot, and that‘s reflecting upon the stock market and other commodities‘ path, meaning that the short-term downside in the red metal won‘t be meaningful. Remember that not enough oil demand has been destroyed – the sad truth is that this is what ultimately breaks inflation, not the measured staircase Fed moves (behind the curve and market expectations).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Readying the Sell

Readying the Sell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.06.2022 13:49
S&P 500 looks set to open on a relatively strong note, and the unbeaten resistance is approaching again. 4,180 or a tad above, is where the bears are. Crude oil and precious metals are improving today, and the retracement in copper would likewise be duly reversed, even if not today. The crypto upswing would likewise give way to further selling, but hasn‘t yet run the course.As I wrote in yesterday‘s extensive analysis – with all the accompanying charts:(…) S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.The key dilemma facing the Fed – would inflation slow down enough to support propping up the real economy again? Or would they need to keep tightening as (in the larger scheme of things) inflation would be barely dented by September? Stocks are watching with a bearish bias - earnings are to be hit.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The Horns of Fed‘s Dilemma

The Horns of Fed‘s Dilemma

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.06.2022 14:55
S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.The key dilemma facing the Fed – would inflation slow down enough to support propping up the real economy again? Or would they need to keep tightening as (in the larger scheme of things) inflation would be barely dented by September? Stocks are watching with a bearish bias - earnings are to be hit.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe headwinds are blowing, and they‘re stiff. Should 4,220 be cleared (that‘s a big if), the bears would become very active again. The bulls don‘t have the luxury of time as the current lull in positive economic data and bond market performance, is slowly drawing to its end.Credit MarketsThe HYG engine is seriously sputtering, and the quality debt instruments pause is turning out a bit too shallow. Wobbly stocks and wobbly bonds – the local peak in yields is in, but don‘t look for it to last. Consequences for real estate loom.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are turning up, in a one step forwards, one step backwards fashion. It‘ll give way to two steps forwards though as the countdown for the metals to come back very much alive, is on. Remember, they are a leading indicator.Crude OilCrude oil is about to continue running, pretty much unimpeded – and oil stocks have been arguably the best sectoral pick. Much higher prices are to follow, and the gains would be even greater in gasoline and heating oil – yes, fuels that keep the economy running, have been outperforming for quite a while already.CopperCopper is looking increasingly fine – Friday‘s correction didn‘t reach deep enough in the least. Base metals are improving, and would continue muddling through with a bullish bias.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos still aren‘t catching their breath, and little wonder – the medium-term direction remains down, and daily shows of remarkable strength look best to be sold.SummaryS&P 500 bulls can‘t be counted on to get too far. In fits and starts, the upswing attempts would get sold – just how far above 4,200 could they get? Given the many headwinds from bonds to oil and other commodities, being on the lookout for a selling opportunity, is the best that can be done. The economy keeps slowing down, and real assets haven‘t yet peaked. Should inflation not slow down meaningfully (at least for a couple of months), the Fed would have to remain hawkish for longer than it would be comfortable with. With 3.25% in 10-year Treasury yield approaching, I‘m looking for further trouble in bonds as stocks haven‘t sustainably bottomed yet. Enjoy the profits on the long side within real assets as that‘s still the go-to asset class.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Is S&P 500 (SPX) Tech Stocks-Powered!? May Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Increase In Dovish Fed Reality? How Will NFP Interact With Markets? | Monica Kingsley

Is S&P 500 (SPX) Tech Stocks-Powered!? May Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Increase In Dovish Fed Reality? How Will NFP Interact With Markets? | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.06.2022 14:34
S&P 500 was indeed building a bull flag, which „must“ now continue with a fresh upleg so that the formation is validated. Odds are that in spite of the tech-led upswing, the rally would continue. All that‘s required for today, is a not too disappointing non-farm payrolls figure, which would (in the market‘s mind) give the Fed some leevay in taking on inflation while not choking off economic growth (however decelerating). Optimal outcome would be a figure somewhat below expectations as that would enable speculation as to how far the Fed would move towards focus on growth (the Brainard view of things) and away from Powell‘s resolute (verbally resolute, to be precise – big difference) inflation fighter pose. Yesterday‘s Yellen admission on getting it wrong, is a preview of more hawkish monetary policies still ahead. That‘s why I‘ve said that this rally wasn‘t sustainable, but it still has further to go. Treasuries aren‘t relenting in the pressure on the Fed to act, and the central bank would have to catch up. It‘s a question of time when this risk-on reprieve runs its course. Yesterday‘s turn in precious metals and copper is a preview of what such a Fed turn would imemdiately cause – helping the open positions mightily. And I‘m not even talking the sizable open profits in crude oil... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Not too much dillydallying now is key for stocks. We can go higher still – value hasn‘t yet kicked in properly, there is still time for this rotation. How soon would that come? The bulls don‘t have the luxury of time. Credit Markets HYG reversal would look better if it happened on higher volume. Still, that can (and probably would) be overcome. What‘s key here is that Wednesday‘s downswing was heavily bought, and the bears couldn‘t push prices lower yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are turning up, and one dovish remark appropriately interpreted, does that trick. It‘s encouraging that the Yellen appearance was ignored by real assets – let‘s not get into overly celebrating mood as the weeks ahead aren‘t about to bring stellar gains in the least, not yet. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls have stepped in, and the fact it happened on OPEC production increase news, is encouraging. Sideways, running correction in a tight range – that would be an optimal outcome for the bulls. Still time to keep holding crude. Copper Copper surprised in a good way – keeping above $4.50 roughly so that the daily momentum can continue for a little longer, would be great. Foot off the tightening pedal reflected in bond yields and the dollar (both down), would facilitate that in an instant. Bitcoin and Ethereum Warning message from the cryptos after all – even when the dollar declines. Daily shows of remarkable strength look best to be sold. Summary S&P 500 can still continue its upswing but the 4,115 area better hold in the non-farm payrolls aftermath. Odds are good that any panic selling in the wake of a number coming in below expectations, would be reversed. And that could help real assets as well to extend gains – even if in a more modest way than was the case yesterday. What magic can bringing up the growth focus card by Brainard do… Treasuries though aren‘t buying the dovish turn, so get ready for rough trading in the weeks and short months ahead – all we got yesterday, was a preview of what the reaction to the Fed pivot, would be. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Stall Speed Before Running

Stall Speed Before Running

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.06.2022 13:40
S&P 500 could still be building a bull flag on the daily chart, followed by an upswing tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. Who knows what kinds of adjustments would show that the real economy isn‘t decelerating all that badly? Markets might even conclude the contraction bullet would be avoided, and that the Fed won‘t need to go all in against inflation consequences be damned. Wrong, because if you look at Treasuries, the pressure on the Fed to raise (and dramatically so), is on – the dollar is turning up already on the prospect of higher yields. CPI inflation might have (temporarily) peaked, but inflation expectations (as measured by both the bond market and the respective ETF) haven‘t yet.After the current lull in the stock market, the shrinking liquidity pressures would return – for now though, both tech and value could still eke out quite some gains as the broader risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run its course. This would nicely fit in with the tough Powell talk eventually breaking this rally off very oversold readings. The Russell 2000 with semiconductors also show we have further to run in the short term before the risk-on rally rolls over again.Precious metals have nicely turned – and miners together with copper agree. In such a case, Tuesday would be a fake breakdown attempt that we would see convincingly invalidated before the week is over. The move comes somewhat at the expense of crude oil – regardless of how well oil stocks are holding up. The best price gains are to be found in gasoline, heating oil – the oil products. The WTI-Brent spread is too narrow as well. Crude oil price reaction to EU moves couple of days ago, is disappointing – after $120 rejection, I looked for $118 to be captured, with the following price action around this level to show the short-term strength of the bulls. And there isn‘t too much of it – not even the $115 provided much support - prices are now kind of midpoint inside the rising channel of late.Finally, cryptos are sending a mixed message but I‘m looking for Bitcoin and Ethereum to ever so modestly catch up to the brightening risk sentiment, however short in the large scheme of things this period would turn out to be.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Except Crude Oil, (SPX) S&P 500, (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price And (XAUUSD) Gold Price A Bit Boring And Trading Lower Than Usual | Monica Kingsley

Except Crude Oil, (SPX) S&P 500, (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price And (XAUUSD) Gold Price A Bit Boring And Trading Lower Than Usual | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.06.2022 15:43
S&P 500 didn‘t waver much even though credit markets did – the risk-on sentiment in stocks goes on even when faced with a dollar upswing (which was sold into). The defensive slant to the S&P 500 gains is evident as tech did better than value – and even energy stocks got hurt. This is short-term concerning for the oil bulls, but it would be premature to close the profitable longs just yet (even if short-term challenges would remain). Precious metals are acting weak – the daily rise in yields and the dollar hurts. Second half of the year would be the best time for gold and silver as the focus shifts from (temporarily peaking) inflation to the inevitability of backing off tightening (turning accommodative again even) – till then, I‘m looking for lean weeks ahead, and that goes for copper as well. Crude oil remains supported by geopolitics, CRB Index continues trending nicely higher, and the threat of recession isn‘t breaking them.Notably, the market pressure on the Fed to raise, has slowed to a standstill in May – and that would support real assets going forward in the mid-term increasingly more. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook It still looks like a consolidation – I‘m looking for the upswing to continue, and for value to pick up steam again. Microrotation was all we saw yesterday. Credit Markets HYG hasn‘t reversed in earnest – this rally has further to run. Treasury yields have though indeed peaked as I looked them to do – the bond market reprieve would facilitate stock market gains before slowdown reality sets in. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fell asleep again, and their medium-term outlook is „on pause“ as better days are a few short months away. The key factor are bond yields and market pressure on the Fed – neither of which is decidedly in the metals‘ favor at the moment. Crude Oil Crude oil hasn‘t necessarily reversed, but I would be cautious over this week at least. Medium-term, I don‘t see a peak as already in. Copper Copper is at a short-term crossroads but not ready to be moving too sharply (too fast) lower. Similarly to precious metals, it‘s waiting for the Fed to get closer to making a turn – and that‘s unlikely to happen too soon. Bitcoin and Ethereum Two days of crypto caution won‘t dent the upswing in my view. By Friday, we would be seeing higher prices in both Bitcoin and Ethereum than are the case currently. Summary S&P 500 ìs about to continue on improving market breadth, and bonds wouldn‘t stand in the way – the risk-on sentiment has much further to go both in time and stock market prices. Real assets would continue being relatively resilient, and the yields reprieve helping to keep a lid on the dollar, would outweigh the temporary inflation peak. Indeed temporary as inflation would remain stubbornly high and persistent – the Fed is unlikely to break it (that would take more than a brief and sharp recession). That‘s why it‘s not advisable from the medium- and long-term point of view to vacate many real asset longs even as the short-term winds are howling. Thank you Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Game Plan Ahead

Game Plan Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.05.2022 12:58
S&P 500 did fine on Friday as well, and the long streak of weeks in red, is over (for now). The rally would continue for quite a while longer – after all, we indeed got the sign inflation made its peak with the May data. Also right on schedule, the top in yields came – coupled with some retail earnings, personal income and PCE data, the stock market rally could proceed. And it has further to go, quite further to go – before peaking and rolling over to fresh lows. Yes, I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena.For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again.In short, this is a false dawn, but it would feel like a fresh dawn. Counterintuitively, it would be accompanied by retreating yields – regardless of the persistent inflation. Remember also my words that the Fed won‘t be able to engineer a soft landing this time, I‘m not counting on that – the conditions are so much different macroeconomically now than they were in the mid-1990s, which was the last time they could pull it off. Just ask yourself how much slack in the job market is there, what about the peace dividend now and prospects for the brighter aspects of globalization. No, I‘m not buying that – this reprieve would give way to a fresh stock market downleg, manufacturing growth would crawl to a standstill, and that‘s when the central bank would be forced to back off tightening.The simultaneous retreat in inflation and yields would help precious metals recover from the very negative sentiment of late – the low is in, and as the Fed turn (coming early autumn) approaches (universally, there isn‘t enough pain yet to justify their change in position), the sector would slowly get into a lift-off mode, characterized by more strength in the miners. Crude oil is of course elevated, and having higher to go still – oil stocks continue remaining my prime pick. Copper has likewise put in a low, and would benefit just as much as silver from the coming Fed turn (patience). Relatively lean weeks for the red metal though remain ahead, especially with the decelerating manufacturing. Finally cryptos, these can‘t get their act together – and it‘s telling. I don‘t think this false down in risk assets would last in the environment of shrinking liquidity and commodity price inflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSharp rally on low volume, isn‘t a problem – pullbacks are to be bought. Value is running, and tech got off the ground – enjoy while it lasts. Even though seasonality is nothing to be cheerful about, this counter trend rally will overcome this headwind.Credit MarketsHYG is leading higher, and didn‘t yet get enough ahead of itself – other bonds have likewise turned, and coupled with the dollar peak called, we have another ingredient facilitating the risk-on run underway.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are slowly waking up – and that‘s the way things would be in the PMs sector until the „admissible“ pain in the real economy becomes too much for the Fed to bear. Just in time to have an effect for the mid-terms – that‘s when you can expect the next upleg in gold and silver. And the metals are to be the first to sniff out the coming Fed turn before it happens.Crude OilCrude oil is slowly breaking higher, still supported by geopolitics of course. Oil stocks continue leading, but as the real economy woes (reflected not only in manufacturing data to come) become apparent, black gold would feel it. For now, the times good and great beckon. Technically, the break from the long consolidation is very promising for the bulls.CopperCopper has turned the corner, but no rocket fuel awaits just now. It‘ll be tiring just as much as in silver – but we‘re mostly going higher from here. Of course, I have talked about other real asset areas of strength a month ago, and nothing had changed.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are set up for a run, and their upswing can reach quite higher still as well. The intraday correction represents a buying opportunity in the larger scheme of things – yesterday‘s volume was a positive sign.SummaryBright days are here, but not forever – S&P 500 is poised to extend gains, and risk-on assets will be enjoying the coming weeks. Bonds would benefit likewise but I‘m looking for a disconnect to creep in slowly as stocks would (decidedly in my view) turn to the downside again. A couple of weeks of reasonably sharp counter trend rally await first, and these have been supported by the „green shoots“ (of infamous spring 2009 fame) in the form of peaking inflation, retail earnings and personal income data. Have a good look at today‘s extensive analysis where I talk at length what we can be looking forward in the weeks and months ahead...The upswing in commodities continues unabated (with copper due to real economy still about to lag before the Fed turns), and precious metals have turned the corner. Cryptos are joining in as well, in a fit of yesterday‘s strength. Overall, the open positions have been vindicated, and further gains await.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
So S&P 500 (SPX) Seems To Be Ready To Really, Can US Bond Yields And US Dollar (USD) Go Any Higher? | Monica Kingsley

So S&P 500 (SPX) Seems To Be Ready To Really, Can US Bond Yields And US Dollar (USD) Go Any Higher? | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.05.2022 15:13
S&P 500 turned the corner, yields peaked for now, and dollar likewise. Risk-on sentiment is ruling the day, with value outperforming tech – but at least the latter is also recovering. Stocks though haven‘t turned the corner in earnest, no matter the gains they‘re still about to clock in. Enjoy the rally while it lasts (long entry is a matter of individual trade‘s risk reward ratio – more than a few good percent are still ahead before the fresh downleg strikes. Fed You can look forward for tomorrow‘s extensive analysis, where I‘ll examine the Fed and macroeconomics in the weeks and months ahead vs. the turnaround sequence discussed three weeks ago – unfolding like clockwork. Here‘s a quote from tomorrow‘s article: (…) I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena. VIX For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again. Stayed tuned for more, enjoy and profit along! Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Happy extended weekend. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
There Will Probably A Rally Today And For The Remaining Two Weeks Until The End Of The Year

Where (USD) US Dollar Is Going To Head To In The Next Few Days? May S&P 500 And Gold Become Volatile Shortly? | Daily Reprieve or More | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.05.2022 14:17
S&P 500 modest risk-on turn talked yesterday, is underway – with adequate support from bonds. That means the dollar is going to get under daily selling pressure, with positive consequences for assets spanning commonidities, precious metals and sure supporting tech as well (looking at TLT to cast a decisive vote for Nasdaq). Unfolding just fine, but what about the CPI effect? Likely to temper the oh so fast inflation theme, at least temporarily – and that would take pressure off the Fed‘s hand being twisted by the markets. Note though how both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury paused over the last days. Together with the arriving as anticipated negative quarterly GDP print, the temporary slowdown in pace of inflation would get an ally in retreating (especially long-term) Treasury yields reflecting the darkening real economy prospects. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. The bulls have a chance, and can run with it as best as they can. Cryptos thus far are modestly leaning in the „local bottom is in“ direction (in spite of the tectonic Tether developments), so the odds are for price gains across the board (at the expense of the dollar) during today – as long as markets interpret the upcoming CPI reading as slowing down / slowly peaking. Yes, since Jun 2020 when I started to talk early effects of inflation, the last week has been the first time when I raised the good likelihood of inflation making a local peak when May / Jun CPI readings come in, only to spring quickly back to life on the „economy is slowing, do something“ change in tune of demands made to the Fed. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM At these trying times for real asset bulls, let‘s take the proper precious metals perspective, enjoy the rich caption: It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival Plenty of upside risk to become evident in 2H 2022, with my Monday‘s article covering the game plan for turnaround across the many assets on my daily watch. It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival. Lean times until then. Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets| FXMAG.COM There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
FX Daily: Window of carry sees renewed interest in EMFX

Oh My! All These S&P 500, USD Index (DXY) And The Rest Which Will Be Surely Affected By Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.05.2022 14:51
S&P 500 sold off hard after the opening spike above 4,260 failed, immediately failed. Bonds gradually joined, in a risk-off fashion, and even though TLT didn‘t plunge, tech totally did – and the same goes for value. Could have been a short-term capitulation, but I wouldn‘t really bet on that – the little earnings-driven rallies get sold off a bit too hard, bit too fast. Obviously, the countdown to Wednesday‘s FOMC is on, and a series of 50bp rate hikes beyond May is expected – yes, for June and I would say also for July, and then September looks starting to get priced in. That‘s bad for all asset classes as the sea of liquidity gets gets recognized for being dialed back – they‘re all going to suffer, including my favored commodities and precious metals. Temporarily, but still for more than a couple of weeks – the Fed doesn‘t have the bulls‘ back. The Fed is looking serious now but would take off its foot off the pedal just in time for midterms. When I say they‘re serious, I mean that they would take on inflation at least to the degree that expectations don‘t become truly unanchored. Inflation would make a local peak, and May to June could be the right time frame for that. They may late in summer declare „victory“ even though inflation isn‘t going anywhere as the Fed would then make a U-turn, and could even go back into easing later in autumn – yes, regardless of a U.S. recession (as defined by two consecutive negative quarterly GDP prints) being not my base case scenario. Yes, I‘m counting on the Fed to back off from tightening before more trouble than deceleration hits the real economy – and as the noises about growth outweigh the unfinished inflation of the future, real assets would sniff out the dilemma, and start rising before the Fed officially makes the requested U-turn. That‘s my big picture view for the Q2 and Q3, and why it remains worthwhile to hold on to the reasonably leveraged real asset positions with all the real world supply constraints – hard to see how many months before the actual turn, we would see the first revivals there. Note that CRB Index is loathe to decline, and energy would keep leading it higher – together with agrifoods, and gold would join in. So, what is a commodity / precious metals bull to do in these circumstances? Withstanding the panicked moves with the core position that the big players are probably slowly scaling into, put up a hedge via shorts against the (beyond tech) equities and bonds to be hit the worst (remember, bonds would turn up on truly bleeding equities and when the growth worries outweigh inflation concerns in markets‘ mind), or close the longs now only to reenter weeks later (for quite a couple of percent discount). It must be noted though that in Nasdaq we‘re over 20% decline from the top, and S&P 500 is approaching that psychological threshold where the „consensus on Fed history“ has it that the Fed wouldn‘t be comfortable seeing steeper declines. But as I said, they‘re taking on inflation now, so they don‘t have anyone‘s back. While the false hopes would be disappointed, we‘re in for a volatile week beyond Wednesday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Turning Around for Good?

Turning Around for Good?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.04.2022 15:24
S&P 500 rose incessantly during the regular session but bonds don‘t yet confirm the decline would be over. So much hawkish noise (75bp hike next?), and tech keeps rising? Still a peculiar case of strength but a daily rotation out of energy stocks into tech can‘t be denied. I wouldn‘t yet jump to conclusions about lastingly improving market breadth though. The S&P 500 upswing may just take a few days more to run its course as the tightening heat hasn‘t yet played out. Powell talking tomorrow is a nice opportunity. Real assets will find it easy to recover from yesterday‘s daily setback – they had plenty of opportunities to decline before Feb 24th, yet tellingly didn‘t...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookBy the shape of yesterday‘s candle, the S&P 500 can extend its gains before turning south again. The volume doesn‘t yet indicate the presence of sellers nearby. Reversing when Powell speaks next?Credit MarketsSea of red, anywhere you look – HYG intraday upswing attempt looks too weak. Rising yields still work against the stock market bulls – these are running on borrowed time.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing was partially bought, and odds are the downside wouldn‘t be too deep. The upside risks remain much greater, and with expectations building up for 75bp hike in May (i.e. it not being just a fantasy), the bulls will welcome even a mere 50bp hike getting out of the way. Anyway, good performance when you look at the USD strength.Crude OilCrude oil downswing will have a very limited shelf life – and the same goes for oil stocks. Don‘t be surprised by a spike early Monday.CopperCopper is holding up nicely, and would take the bullish cue as well. Before that, patience, quite some patience is called for. Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos failing to extend gains could be one of the first warning signs that the paper assets rally is coming to an end, slowly but surely. Bitcoin outperforming Ethereum is in itself defensive.SummaryThe introduction to today‘s analysis together with the rich captions, serve as a good summary, so enjoy the many thoughts presented. Suffice to say that the stock market upswing isn‘t yet confirmed by bonds – there is no risk appetite there. It‘s a counter trend move at odds with the the dollar, and temporarily helped by real assets daily weakness. Strength would return into precious metals and commodities, and the Fed won‘t be able to break inflation regardless of putting up a good fight visually. The countdown to the approaching recession is on, and I have it set at rather 6 than 9 or even 12 months.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Still Bearish Stocks?

Still Bearish Stocks?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.04.2022 14:53
S&P 500 kept plunging into the close, with yields rising across the board – confirming the slide as much as tech weakness. With the White House playing the extraordinarily elevated inflation card with some finger pointing for today‘s CPI, the drummed up expectations are for a really hot number. Whether it outperforms market expectations or not, the inflation expectations of yesterday show the boat short-term tilting a bit too much one way – so, we may get a fake S&P 500 rally, a temporary reprieve that would be sold into.Likewise precious metals and commodities are positioning themselves for the price surge ahead. The long consolidation following the late Feb run up, is drawing to an end, and a steady upswing with the Fed talking a good hawkish game headwind, is ahead. Not just talking, they would deliver on the next FOMC, and would keep delivering until something in the real economy breaks. The yields trajectory including the yield curve would signal that, and I‘ll keep you updated real time as to the implications of the many open plays.Let‘s quote from yesterday‘s seminal analysis laying out the medium-term prospects, including macroeconomically. Sure, the Fed will:(…) deliver quite a few hikes, even the 50bp one at the next FOMC that‘s in the air, but how about intentions to shrink the balance sheet monthly by $95bn as well? Sounds like a bridge too – while the real economy is decelerating, it hasn‘t yet tipped into a recession – but looking at the 10-year to 2-year spread, we‘re past the inversion point (and I‘m not even bringing up select other spread which have inverted earlier already).So, it‘s pretty safe to say we‘re in the countdown to the recession, and that‘s not a function of yields only but of oil prices too – practically doubling, and the real economy just keeps humming along? Gimme a break. Usually, it takes 12-18 months since the inversion for recession to arrive, but this time around, I think that 6, max 9 months is more appropriate an expectation.For stocks, this means we‘re still going down until yields turn, which would be a replay of the safety trade. But the 60-40 model is dead, and in the inflation paradigm I‘ve been hammering since early Jun 2020, the themes would be rotations out of growth into value, and of course also out of cyclicals into defensives, those not cyclically dependent areas. I keep pounding the table for energy, precious metals, base metals, uranium, water, agrifoods, fertilizer, timber etc. Retail and consumer discretionaries would be hurt – but real estate not so much. I would though wait for yields to come down (which would mark a nice stock bear market bottom as well) before looking at housing twice.Expect wild stock market swings – bull and bear markets lasting 1+ years that take you nowhere if you aren‘t picky about stocks allocation favoring real asset overtones. This is the era of inflation – make no mistake, the Fed won‘t break it, and the geopolitical consequences would soon drive inflation into double digits. Not even Strategic Petroleum Reserve (in place of that vaunted OPEC spare capacity?) record releases all the way to midterms would cushion it.A few more thoughts on yields – let‘s take 10-year Treasury one now at 2.72%. As we approach, and cross that psychological 3% threshold, that would be a nice catalyst of more stock market selling (brace yourself, tech – I had been transparently a bear on you for a long time, but played S&P 500 as that‘s more of an interest to the audience). The short profits can keep growing, we aren‘t yet at the end of the ride. Precious metals, crude oil and copper are to extend gains, and break higher out of their current consolidations – the local bottoms have been made.Enjoy and profit!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Where Next, Bears?

Where Next, Bears?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.04.2022 13:45
S&P 500 intraday resilience fizzled out, predictably. I just didn‘t like the credit markets performance, this yields spike isn‘t over yet as everyone and their brother listen to the Fed‘s hawkish tune. Sure, they‘ll make a good talk, and also deliver quite a few hikes, even the 50bp one at the next FOMC that‘s in the air, but how about intentions to shrink the balance sheet monthly by $95bn as well? Sounds like a bridge too – while the real economy is decelerating, it hasn‘t yet tipped into a recession – but looking at the 10-year to 2-year spread, we‘re past the inversion point (and I‘m not even bringing up select other spread which have inverted earlier already). So, it‘s pretty safe to say we‘re in the countdown to the recession, and that‘s not a function of yields only but of oil prices too – practically doubling, and the real economy just keeps humming along? Gimme a break. Usually, it takes 12-18 months since the inversion for recession to arrive, but this time around, I think that 6, max 9 months is more appropriate an expectation. For stocks, this means we‘re still going down until yields turn, which would be a replay of the safety trade. But the 60-40 model is dead, and in the inflation paradigm I‘ve been hammering since early Jun 2020, the themes would be rotations out of growth into value, and of course also out of cyclicals into defensives, those not cyclically dependent areas. I keep pounding the table for energy, precious metals, base metals, uranium, water, agrifoods, fertilizer, timber etc. Retail and consumer discretionaries would be hurt – but real estate not so much. I would though wait for yields to come down (which would mark a nice stock bear market bottom as well) before looking at housing twice. Expect wild stock market swings – bull and bear markets lasting 1+ years that take you nowhere if you aren‘t picky about stocks allocation favoring real asset overtones. This is the era of inflation – make no mistake, the Fed won‘t break it, and the geopolitical consequences would soon drive inflation into double digits. Not even Strategic Petroleum Reserve (in place of that vaunted OPEC spare capacity?) record releases all the way to midterms would cushion it. A few more thoughts on yields – let‘s take 10-year Treasury one now at 2.72%. As we approach, and cross that psychological 3% threshold, that would be a nice catalyst of more stock market selling (brace yourself, tech – I had been transparently a bear on you for a long time, but played S&P 500 as that‘s more of an interest to the audience). The short profits can keep growing, we aren‘t yet at the end of the ride. Precious metals, crude oil and copper are to extend gains, and break higher out of their current consolidations – the local bottoms have been made. Enjoy and profit! This extensive analysis is a gift for your patience when I had been providing you with brief yet timely and nimble market analyses during the past three weeks. During April and at least part of May, I‘ll at times stick to this short format, but rest assured that you – as subscribers on my site and Twitter followers – would be in the loop real-time whenever my thinking changes, just as had been the case over the past 3 weeks. At turning points of key importance, and in preparation for them, I‘ll of course issue a regular length analysis to explain thoroughly, but over the coming weeks numerous shorter and to the point updates would be more numerous. Keep an eye on my site and Twitter handle for updates before I revert to regular programming, thank you very much! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is deceptively strong here, and ready to move down again. Tech is leading, yields are leading, and the rotation into value won‘t save the day. The bear market rally is over, and we‘re starting the next downleg. Credit Markets Sea of red, anywhere you look – HYG giving up intraday gains, and quality debt instruments still going down. We aren‘t yet anywhere near seeing yields reverse, there isn‘t even enough panic in stocks to send some fresh demand bonds‘ way. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are smartlty turning up, and the permabears will have once again egg on their faces. With miners leading higher, it‘s a tough job being bearish, and looking to make such a case with a straight face. Tightening cycle is here, I get it – but first, that‘s usually a bullish catalyst, and second, the current conditions and market performance don‘t favor any steep drops, the only question is the length of the prior sideways consolidation. Crude Oil Crude oil has found a floor, and is ready to rise again. Oil stocks are leading, and there aren‘t bearish news on the horizon. I just wonder at what price would the SPR be replenished – how close to $120 or even $150. Prices in this range are doable – not this not next month, but energy will continue spiking this year. Copper Copper is likewise ready to spring higher, and is as resilient to downswings as I had been telling you lately. On the next try, $5 would be overcome. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are under pressure well before the markets open today, and this doesn‘t bode well for risk-on assets really. I doubt enough buyers would materialize later today to turn the tide. Summary Today‘s extensive analysis is best read from the long start through the rich individual market sections. It‘s a gift for your patience when I had been providing you with brief yet timely and nimble market analyses during the past three weeks. During April and at least part of May, I‘ll at times stick to this short format, but rest assured that you – as subscribers on my site and Twitter followers – would be in the loop real-time whenever my thinking changes, just as had been the case over the past 3 weeks. At turning points of key importance, and in preparation for them, I‘ll of course issue a regular length analysis to explain thoroughly, but over the coming weeks shorter and to the point updates would be more numerous. Keep an eye on my site and Twitter handle for updates before I revert to regular programming, thank you very much! Now, some more market action meat and potatoes. S&P 500 is bound to decline again as the prior bear market rally ran its course – the fresh dive to the lows (could still happen early July as I told you roughly a month ago) is on, and yields confirm. At the same time, precious metals and commodities are setting up for a great rally. As for medium- and long-term views of stocks, sectoral picks and real assets, I can‘t stress enough how key today‘s analysis is – have a good read, and enjoy positioning yourselves accordingly. Thanks for your patience once again! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Hawkish Fed „Surprise“

Hawkish Fed „Surprise“

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out aggressive inflation before it‘s too late (anchored inflation expectations, anyone? I talked that in the run up to the Sep 2021 P&G price hikes and how the competition would be following in a nod to high input costs, with heating job market on top of the commodities pressure pinching back then already), sent stocks and bonds down.Add the recession fears that were assuaged during the Wednesday‘s conference, and you get the S&P 500 bulls having to dust off after Monday‘s setback. Given how early we‘re in the tightening cycle, and that the real economy isn‘t yet breaking down no matter what‘s in the pipeline geopolitically as regards various consequences to commodities, goods, services and money flows, the stock market bulls are still likely to take on the 4,600 as discussed already.Only this time, the upswing would be accompanied by a more measured and balanced commodities upswing, joined in by precious metals. Great profits ahead and already in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is consolidating above 4,400, and the relative strength in value as opposed to tech, is boding well – the bulls are pushing their luck a bit too hard as a further TLT decline would pressure growth stocks.Credit MarketsHYG is getting under pressure again, but its decline would be uneven in the short run – as in I‘m looking for quite some back and forth action. First, higher in taking on yesterday‘s selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t turning lower in earnest – the miners‘ leadership bodes well for further gains, and is actually a very good performance given the hawkish Fed „surprise“ (surprise that wasn‘t, shouldn‘t have been).Crude OilCrude oil strength returning is a very good omen for commodities bulls broadly, and the rising volume hints at return of bullish spirits. The upswing is far from over – look how far black gold got on relatively little conviction, and where oil stocks trade at the moment.CopperCopper is acting strongly, and the downswing didn‘t entice the bears much. The path of least resistance remains higher, and the red metal isn‘t yet outperforming the CRB Index. Great pick for portfolio gains with as little volatility as can be.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin went on to recover the weekend setback – Ethereum upswing presaged that. They‘re both a little stalling now, but entering today‘s regular session on a constructive note. I‘m looking for modest gains extension.SummaryS&P 500 is bound to recover from yesterday‘s intraday setback – the animal spirits and positive seasonality are there to overcome the brief realization that the Fed talks seriously about tightening and entrenched inflation. While not even the implied readiness to hike by 50bp here and there won‘t cut it and send inflation to the woodshed, let alone inflation expectations, the recession fears would be the next powerful ally of stock market bears. For now though, we‘re muddling through generally higher (I‘m still looking for a tradable consolidation of last week‘s sharp gains), and will do so over the coming several weeks. The real profits are to be had in commodities and precious metals, as I had been saying quite often lately… Enjoy!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

S&P 500 (SPX) Up, Crude Oil Up, Credit Markets Up, Bitcoin Price Oops...

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.03.2022 15:37
S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
What Is Going On Financial Markets Today? Russia Will Not Resume Deliveries Of Gas

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.03.2022 15:57
S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.03.2022 15:40
S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk that wasn‘t sufficient to crush inflation when the going was relatively good, by the way.As stated yesterday:(…) The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed.Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed.We‘re seeing such a reversal in commodities already, and precious metals have a „habit“ of joining around the press conference. Yesterday‘s performance of miners and copper, provides good enough a hint.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. Interestingly, it was accompanied by oil stocks declining – have we seen THE risk-on turn? This looks to be a temporary reprieve unless the Fed really overdelivers in dovishness.Credit MarketsHYG is catching some bid, and credit markets are somewhat supporting the risk-on turn. Yields though don‘t look to have put in a top just yet, which means the stock market bears would return over the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking very attractive, and the short-term bottom appears at hand – this is the way they often trade before the Fed. I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious and dovish Fed tone.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t test the 50-day moving average, and I would expect the bulls to step in here – after all, the Fed can‘t print oil, and when they go dovish, the economy just doesn‘t crash immediately...CopperCopper is refusing to decline, and the odd short-term weakness would be reversed – and the same goes for broader commodities, which have been the subject of my recent tweet.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t fully risk-on, but cautiously giving the bulls benefit of the doubt. Not without a pinch of salt, though.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are on the (short-term) run, and definitely need more fuel from the Fed. Significant dovish turn – they would get some, but it wouldn‘t be probably enough to carry risk-on trades through the weekend. The upswing is likely to stall before that, and commodities with precious metals would catch a fresh bid already today. This would be coupled with the dollar not making any kind of upside progress to speak of. The true Fed turn towards easing is though far away still (more than a few months away) – the real asset trades are about patience and tide working in the buyers favor. The yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and more stagflation talk isn‘t too far...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.03.2022 13:09
S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Now, That‘s Better

Now, That‘s Better

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.03.2022 15:59
S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Not Passing Smell Test

Not Passing Smell Test

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.03.2022 16:01
S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in commodities and precious metals doesn‘t pass the smell test for me – just as there were little cracks in the dam warning of short-term vulnerability at the onset of yesterday, the same way there are signs of the resulting downswing being overdone now.And that has consequences for the multitude of open positions – the PMs and commodities super bull runs are on, and the geopolitics still support the notion of the next spike.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 turned around, and the volume isn‘t raising too many eyebrows. However, the bulls should have tempered price appreciation expectations, to put it politely...Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but isn‘t entirely convincing yet. We saw an encouraging first step towards risk-on turn that requires that the moves continue, which is unlikely today – CPI is here, and unlikely to disappoint the inflationistas.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing looks clearly overdone, and I continue calling for a shallow, $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation next. This gives you an idea not to expect steep silver discounts either. Miner are clear, and holding up nicely.Crude OilCrude oil downswing came, arguably way too steep one. Even oil stocks turned down in spite of the S&P 500 upswing, which is odd. I‘m looking for gradual reversal of yesterday‘s weakness in both.CopperCopper has made one of its odd moves on par with the late Jan long red candle one – I‘m looking for the weakness to be reversed, and not only in the red metal but within commodities as such.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving up yesterday‘s upswing – they are dialing back the risk-on turn and rush out of the safe havens of late.SummaryThe S&P 500 dog indeed just had its day, but the price appreciation prospects are not looking too bright for today. With attention turning to CPI, and yesterday‘s „hail mary decline aka I don‘t need you anymore“ in the safe havens of late (precious metals, crude oil, wheat, and the dollar to name just a few) getting proper scrutiny, I‘m looking for gradual return to strength in all things real (real assets) – it‘s my reasonable assumption that the markets won‘t get surprised by an overwhelmingly positive headline from Eastern Europe at this point. Focusing on the underlying fundamentals and charts, I don‘t think so we have seen the real asset tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Ringing the Bell

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.03.2022 15:41
S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

S&P 500 Is Likely Recovering, Gold (XAUUSD), Copper And Crude Oil (WTI) Close To Out Of The Park Play

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.03.2022 15:47
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with. If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 setback was repelled on Friday, but I‘m looking for the subsequent upswing to fizzle out – we still have to go down in Mar, and that would be the low. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects. This doesn‘t bode well for the S&P 500 bulls. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – my Friday‘s sentence is still fitting today. I‘m looking for further price gains – the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing still hasn‘t lost steam, and still can surprise on the upside. Slowdown in the pace of gains, or a sideways consolidation, would be the healthy move next. Jittery nerves can calm down a little today. Copper Copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals, which are one of the key engines of commodities appreciation. The run is respectable, and happening on quite healthy volume – if we don‘t see its meaningful consolidation soon, the red metal would be finally breaking out of its long range here. Bitcoin and Ethereum While I wasn‘t expecting miracles Friday or through the weekend, cryptos are stabilizing, and can extend very modest gains today and tomorrow. Summary S&P 500 is likely to rise next, only to crater lower still this month. It may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Back to Risk-Off

Back to Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Surging Commodities

Surging Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.03.2022 15:49
S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Told You, Risk On

Told You, Risk On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.03.2022 15:45
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

S&P 500 (SPX) And Credit Markets With Moves Up Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) Seems To Be Vigilant

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Crude Oil (WTI) Doesn't Hit THAT High Levels, SPX And Credit Markets Trade Quite Low

Crude Oil (WTI) Doesn't Hit THAT High Levels, SPX And Credit Markets Trade Quite Low

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.02.2022 15:56
S&P 500 recovered the steep losses as the shock was replaced with relief over the international response. Safe haven bids largely disappeared, and can be counted on remaining pressured – this concerns precious metals and crude oil. Credit markets – for all their downswing and forcing the Fed‘s hand through higher yields – have turned risk-on yesterday, but that got reflected just in the tech upswing as value didn‘t close the opening gap. But that would happen today as money flows out of the dollar hiding, and VIX can be counted on to stay much calmer than it was yesterday, in the days to come – that‘s what I tweeted late yesterday. Today‘s inflation data (core PCE) is going to take a backseat to geopolitics as uncertainty about where these tensions could lead, is getting removed in the markets‘ mind – especially as regards the international ramifications. Good to have taken sizable gold and oil profits off the table yesterday, well before the risk premiums were gone – fresh portfolio high has been reached. Remember that in times of high volatility, dialing back your exposure, your risk, is essential to proper risk management. Please have a good look at my style of open trade and money management if you haven‘t already so as to make the most of what I‘m doing. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Now, this looks a lot more as an S&P 500 bottom – volatility appears to be staying elevated but headed down next. Neutral to bullish outlook for today but downswings are likely to be repelled. Credit Markets HYG is marking the risk-on turn clearly, and volume was also solid. Credit markets won‘t be standing in the way of stock market upswing today, I think. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals ominous lower knot would have consequences for the days to come – but we have seen upswing rejection only, not a downside reversal. When miners catch their breath again, the move higher can continue. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing has been rejected, but the long base building goes on, and black gold can be counted on to extend gains even when the dust settles down. Copper Copper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving – yesterday‘s words are still true today, but I am looking for a longer base building here than in crude oil. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning the corner, and the worst looks to be in here as well – yesterday‘s attempt to put in a low was successful. Summary S&P 500 turned around, and the bottom appears to be in. Unless a fresh and entangling escalation materializes (not likely), the markets are willing to shake it off, and erase yesterday‘s downswing. As chips (and international response) fall where they may, the tense air is being removed as markets abhor uncertainty the most. Risk premiums are evaporating, and until the Fed and yields come back into the spotlight, the odds favor risk-on muddying through ahead in the days to follow. The inflation chickens haven‘t though come home to roost, and that has continued bullish implications for real assets. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
It Begins

It Begins

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Let‘s Try Again

Let‘s Try Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2022 15:36
S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart And Credit Markets Candles Nears Quite Low Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.02.2022 13:33
S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bearish Turn Coming

Bearish Turn Coming

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.02.2022 15:57
Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Stumbling Again

Stumbling Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

Mean Reversion

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.02.2022 16:32
S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Technical Analysis: Moving Averages - Did You Know This Tool?

S&P 500 Chart - There's A Big Red Candle On The Right Hand Side

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.02.2022 16:24
S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and gave up the opportunity for a tight range trading on Friday all too easily. The prospects of war were that formidable opponent, against which the S&P 500 didn‘t really stand a chance. So, the downtrend has reasserted itself, and HYG doesn‘t look to have found a floor – junk bonds are leading to the downside, with energy, materials and financials standing out, which isn‘t exactly a bullish constellation. The other key beneficiaries of the safe haven bid were gold, miners and oil. Silver lagged as copper retreated all too easily, but I‘m looking for that to change. As for Monday‘s session in stocks, the odds of a countertrend move to the upside, at least intraday, are good. Just a quick glance at the dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin would reveal the extent of possible stabilization. Stabilization, not a reversal, because HYG is unlikely to turn up, and I‘m not looking for stocks to start moving up again. Thursday marked a high point in the countertrend rally, which was cut short after some 5 days only. Sideways to a little up is the best the bulls can hope for on Monday. Funny though how with all eyes on Eastern Europe, the inflation and steep rate hike bets receded? What a Super Bowl! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Whatever backing and filling there could have been, the S&P 500 didn‘t hesitate, and is pointing to the downside. The bears are back, and aren‘t yielding. Credit Markets Credit markets went decidedly risk-off, and a little sideways reprieve wouldn‘t be surprising. But it would change nothing as the bets on rising rates, are on, and the 2-year Treasury is forcing the Fed‘s hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold came alive on the tensions escalation news – the uptrend is alive and well indeed, even without these geopolitical developments. The upswing wasn‘t really sold into. Crude Oil Crude oil correction came to an abrupt close, and it‘s unlikely black gold would dip in the current environment. The upcoming corrections would be bought as much as the previous one, and given the oil stocks performance, wouldn‘t likely reach far to the downside. Copper Copper is under pressure, and not holding up as well as other commodities. Base metals though are breaking higher, which is why I‘m looking at Friday‘s red metal trading as a temporary setback only. Bitcoin and Ethereum The floor in cryptos is heralding a tight range day – it‘s good for risk-on that Friday‘s downswing isn‘t immediately continuing, it‘s buying some time. Summary S&P 500 bears are back in the driver‘s seat, and the rush to Treasuries took the spotlight off rate hikes – to a small degree. Not that the Fed would be changing course on geopolitics, we aren‘t there yet. To the contrary, credit markets are pressuring the central bank to move – as decisively as possible in the overleveraged system – and Powell would find it hard not to deliver. Come autumn latest, the strain on the real economy would be hard to ignore – real estate is feeling the pinch already. Stock bulls can‘t expect higher prices unless tech recovers, and we look to be still far from that moment. Real assets with safe haven appeal are likely to do best, and the same goes for the dollar temporarily too. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Fed And BoE Ahead Of Interest Rates Decisions. Having A Look At Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Charts

Many Would Want To Know The Near Future Of S&P 500

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.02.2022 15:57
S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage): What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely. Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles. Credit Markets HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today. Crude Oil Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win. Copper Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage. Summary S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Fed Acted, Now It's Markets' Turn. What's The Next Step Of Crude Oil?

Fed Acted, Now It's Markets' Turn. What's The Next Step Of Crude Oil?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.02.2022 15:58
S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude oil is still pausing, but at the same time the bulls are readying a response. I‘m looking for continued trading in the recent range, followed by a break higher. Copper Copper is finally on the move, and the high volume speaks plenty about the buying pressure. I‘m looking for dips to be bought – I‘m not expecting a stampede of the bears taking advantage of a „shorting opportunity“. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t plunging, but the test of the bullish resolve is arriving today – let‘s see what kind of reversal it turns into. The volume looks solid, so I count on more than a daily setback as a minimum. Summary S&P 500 meets unpleasantly high inflation, which is forcing the hand of the Fed. Stocks are going to have a hard time recovering, and the bullish window of opportunity may be drastically shortened. Good to have taken profits off the table automatically through the trailing stop-loss – commodities would be more resilient. That‘s where real gains are – in real assets, as inflation is returning to the spotlight. Rightfully so as the Fed is desperately behind the curve, and precious metals need to fully get that. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

More Profits Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.02.2022 15:54
S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields – it seems that the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. We have quite a way to go still on the upside – 4,600s are waiting, and it remains to be seen how far in the 4,600 – 4,700 range stocks make it. Consumer discretionaries are outperforming staples, and energy isn‘t cratering – the brief commodities reprieve (don‘t look though at copper, which seems preparing a nice upside move, or crude oil‘s shallow dip) supports the stock market advance. Precious metals are rising strongly – both thanks to inflation expectations not budging much, and the expected copper upturn. Not even cryptos are plunging. The open S&P 500 and oil profits can keep on rising. Looks like the markets are slowly positioning for yet another hot inflation number tomorrow. How many times lately have there been expectations that high CPI data would sink stocks – but these rallied instead? Thursday is likely to turn out similarly – I‘m not looking for the stock market rally to top out tomorrow. The Mar FOMC is still quite a few weeks away, 50bp rate hike fears notwithstanding. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have made the opening step, and look ready to extend gains. Even volume has returned a little, but importantly, sellers were nowhere to be seen – and that‘ll likely be the case today as well. Credit Markets HYG couldn‘t keep the opening gains, but junk bonds still did better than their quality counterparts. Anyway, the HYG weakness looks likely to be reversed (to some degree) today. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – and miners strength is confirming that. When inflation turns out more stubborn than generally appreciated, and bond yields don‘t catch up nearly enough, precious metals would like that. Love that. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – this correction is more likely to be in time than in price. Copper Copper is clearly refusing to decline – its upswing looks to be a question of shortening time only. Likewise the commodities reprieve would be reversed shortly. The red metal‘s price action coupled with precious metals one, is very nice to see – for the fruits it would bring. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t weakening – they look to be pausing in the upswing only. How long would they need to consolidate before continuing the attempt to go higher? Summary S&P 500 bulls have a firm grip on higher prices – we‘re looking at another green day today. And if it‘s accompanied by the turning bonds, then all the better. Tech has risen, oil is a little down while sectoral breadth improves – the conditions are in place for S&P 500 to overcome 4,600. The risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run out of time, and the Mar FOMC is still far away. Upgraded rate hike prospects are being increasingly absorbed by the markets, and stocks don‘t look spooked at the moment. The bears‘ time would still come though, but let‘s first enjoy the gains our timely positioning is bringing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bears Are Watching Crude Oil (WTIC) Carefully As It's Very Close To $91

Bears Are Watching Crude Oil (WTIC) Carefully As It's Very Close To $91

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.02.2022 15:34
S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. Bonds are in the driver‘s seat, and the dollar is also cautious – unless these move profoundly either way, the yesterday described S&P 500 reprieve can still play out even if: (…) The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations. As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. The 4,460s are still holding while commodities look to be consolidating today. As the dollar is up somewhat, bonds would have to face opening headwinds – the effect upon tech would be telling. I‘m still looking for downswing rejection in stocks while precious metals would hold up better than commodities today. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook As stated yesterday, S&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future. Credit Markets HYG gave up the opening strength, and the bulls are likely to get under pressure soon – it‘s that yesterday‘s session lacked volume, thus interest of the buyers. The clock is ticking. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep refusing to make lower lows – that‘s the most important aspect of their tempered ascent. And price gains would accelerate later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – oil stocks would have to turn decidedly down first. Copper Copper is getting cautious, and would probably decline should the commodities pause continue – no matter what other base metals would do at the same time. Still, that‘s internal strength in the waiting, similarly to the precious metals strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum The crypto break higher ran out of steam, warning of a rickety ride ahead – not just in cryptos. Things can still get volatile. Summary S&P 500 bulls haven‘t lost the opportunity to force higher prices, but need to repel the upcoming intraday flush that can come today, and possibly even continue tomorrow. Yes, instead of seizing upon the chance, bonds have merely paused, creating a perfect environment for whipsawish trading today – I‘m still expecting Friday‘s lows to hold on a closing basis, but I‘m not ruling out a fake breakdown first. The very short-term outlook is simply choppy until the bond market upswing kicks in in earnest. And that would provide more fuel to precious metals and commodities while pressuring the dollar – seems though we would have to wait for a while to see that happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Rally Time

Rally Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.02.2022 15:59
S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Smelling Blood

Smelling Blood

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.02.2022 15:58
S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates – the sentiment called for a bad non-farm payrolls number today. Understandably so given Wednesday‘s preview, and the figure would just highlight how desperately behind the inflation curve the Fed is, what kind of economy it would be tightening into, and shine more light on its manouevering room for Mar FOMC.Fun times ahead for the bears, and the S&P 500 short profits can go on growing – the ride isn‘t over: If tech – in spite of the great earnings Amazon move – gets clobbered this way again on the rising yields, then we could very well see even energy stocks feel the initial selling wave. Not that value stocks would be unaffected, to put it more than mildly – just check yesterday‘s poor showing of financials. Something is going to give, and soon.Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are getting slaughtered, and the downhill path is likely to continue, thanks to tech. Brace for a volatile day today.Credit MarketsHYG selling pressure made a strong return, predictably. Credit markets are leading stocks to the downside, certainly.Gold, Silver and MinersAs written yesterday, all this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up. The downswings are being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls in the end didn‘t waver, and are pushing higher already – the upside breakout can really stick.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. It would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bears didn‘t get far, and it looks like we‘re back to some chop ahead. SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting rightfully challenged again – the Fed hikes are approaching. See though how little are commodities and precious metals affected. Meanwhile the S&P 500 internals keep deteriorating. Today‘s analytical introduction is special in talking the non-farm payrolls and Fed tightening dynamic, and explains why the pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is still building up, and that 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and today‘s surprisingly strong data gives the Fed as much justification as the quickening wage inflation. I hope you enjoyed today‘s extensive analysis and yesterday‘s risk exposure observations. Have a great day ahead!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Deer in the Headlights

Deer in the Headlights

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.02.2022 15:56
S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data keep surprising those policy makers who had been already surprised throughout 2021. Commodities though aren‘t freezing as a proverbial deer in the headlights, and once the scare of the Fed‘s short tightening cycle gets done away with, precious metals would join. In the meantime, look for silver to act on copper‘s cue, and for gold to do relatively better in risk-off settings.As for stocks, my gentle selling bias while on the lookout to enter short towards the session‘s end, hasn‘t changed since yesterday, and the new position is already profitable:(…) the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls prevailed yesterday, but would get under pressure relatively soon. The ominous lower knots say a consolidation is knocking on the door.Credit MarketsHYG repelled selling pressure, but that won‘t last – I‘m looking for lower values across the bond spectrum, coinciding with (temporary) dollar upswing. Risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersAll this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up, just waiting for a (Fed, inflation, stagflation) catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t yet wavering, but remain perched pretty high – I‘m looking for sideways to down consolidation as the bears get emboldened by the rising volume. Trying their luck soon.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. Commodities are pointing in the right direction – note the absence of sellers yesterday. How far would the USD upswing compress the red metal today? Not much, not lastingly.Bitcoin and EthereumThe narrow crypto trading range is over, and the bears are on the move – look for them to take some time before they get going towards BTC $35K.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are about to meet the bears again, and higher yields won‘t save value stocks, let alone spawn a rush to tech safety. The pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is building up, and 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and stocks will feel it. Unlike precious metals, which would reverse prior hesitation once the rate raising starts in earnest, and start going up. And commodities? These aren‘t waiting for anyone‘s greenlight. And neither should you in life – what I would like to bring to your attention, is that volatility is rising, and it thus makes sense to pare back the overall portfolio exposure and position sizing while taking only the strongest of opportunities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
A Look At Markets Around The World: US CPI, Sweden Riksbank EU Yields And More

Getting Long in the Tooth

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.02.2022 15:56
S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery. The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls prevailed, but the question still remains – where would the upswing stall, or at least pause? Still the same answer as yesterday - ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG reversed higher, and the pace of its coming gains, would be valuable information. Volume tells a story of a modest setback only thus far – greater battles await. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staircase recovery goes on, showing that further retreat was indeed unlikely. The long consolidation would be resolved in a bullish way, it‘s only a question of time. Great performance this early in the tightening cycle – look for PMs upswings once the rate hikes get going. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls aren‘t wavering as the whole energy sector attests to. Black gold hasn‘t dipped yet below $86, and keeps marching and leading the other commodities $100 is approaching. Copper Copper‘s recent red flag was indeed dealt with decisively, and higher prices prevailed. Still great room to catch up with the rest after the preceding reprieve across other base metals as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum The narrow crypto trading range continues – I‘m still not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching – will happen just when Ethereum loses the bid. Summary S&P 500 bulls again scored gains yesterday, but the sectoral rotation and credit market turn would build a vulnerability going into Friday when value would suffer. Before that, I look for the bears to gradually start appearing again, taking probing bites, but not yet being decisive. VIX has some more room to decline indeed, confirming my earlier thoughts – the volatility return would happen on non-farm payrolls inducing a fresh guessing game as to the Mar rate hikes – 25 or 50bp? Inflation, precious metals and commodities would though still emerge victorious. For now, overall risk management is key – fresh portfolio high was reached yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Crude Oil Consquently Goes Higher, S&P 500 Gains and Bitcoin Slowly Recovers

Crude Oil Consquently Goes Higher, S&P 500 Gains and Bitcoin Slowly Recovers

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.02.2022 16:01
S&P 500 pushed sharply higher, squeezing not only tech bears even if yields didn‘t move much – bonds actually ran into headwinds before the closing bell. With my 4,500 target reached, the door has opened to consolidation of prior steep gains, and that would be accompanied by lower volatility days till before the positioning for Friday‘s non-farm payrolls is complete as talked on Sunday. So, we have an S&P 500 rally boosting our open profits while the credit market‘s risk-on posture is getting challenged, and divergencies to stocks abound – as I wrote yesterday: (…) any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. We‘re getting there, the bulls haven‘t yet run out of steam, but it‘s time to move closer to the exit door while still dancing. But the key focus remains the Fed dynamic: (…) Fed‘s Kashkari ... helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Suffice to say that precious metals did notice yesterday, and copper looks ready to work off its prior odd downswing. Remember that commodities keep rising (hello the much lauded agrifoods) while oil enteredd temporary sideways consolidation. Look for other base metals to help the red one higher – the outlook isn‘t pessimistic in the least as the recognition we have entered stagflation, would grow while the still compressing yield curve highlights growing conviction of Fed policy mistake. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls proved their upper hand yesterday, and the question is where would the upswing stall – or at least pause. Ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG caught a bid yesterday too, but the sellers have awakened – it appears the risk-on trades would be tested soon again. Bonds are certainly less optimistic than stocks at this point, but the S&P 500 rickety ride can still continue, and diverge from bonds. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreat was indeed shallow, did you back up the truck? The chart hasn‘t flipped bearish, and I stand by the earlier call that PMs would be one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls rejected more downside, but I‘m not looking for that to last – however shallow the upcoming pullback, it would present a buying opportunity, and more profits on top of those taken recently. Copper Expect copper‘s recent red flag to be dealt with decisively, and for higher prices to prevail. Other base metals have likewise room to join in as $4.60 would be taken on once again. At the same time, the silver to copper ratio would move in the white metal‘s favor after having based since the Aug 2020 PMs top called. Bitcoin and Ethereum As stated yesterday, crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching. Summary S&P 500 bulls made a great run yesterday, and short covering was to a good deal responsible. Given the credit market action, I‘m looking for the pace of gains to definitely decelerate, and for the 500-strong index to consolidate briefly. VIX is likely to keep calming down before rising again on Friday. Should credit markets agree, the upcoming chop would be of the bullish flavor, especially if oil prices keep trading guardedly. And that looks to be the case, and the rotation into tech can go on – $NYFANG doing well is one of the themes for the environment of slowing GDP growth rates, alongside precious metals and commodities embracing inflation with both arms. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) A Very Tight Sequence of The Latest Candles In The Chart

S&P 500 (SPX) A Very Tight Sequence of The Latest Candles In The Chart

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 31.01.2022 15:53
S&P 500 left the 4,270s - 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. The sizable open long profits can keep growing. Only the market internals would be poor, so better don‘t look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, and similar metrics. Enough to say that Friday‘s advance was sparked by the Apple news. When it‘s only the generals that are advancing while much of the rest remains in shambles, Houston has a problem – we aren‘t there yet. Fed‘s Kashkari also helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Couple that with resilient oil – more profits taken off the table Friday at $88.30 – and you‘ve got a pretty resilient inflation. Not that inflation expectations would be shaking in their boots, not that commodities would be cratering. It‘s only copper (influencing silver) that has to figure out just how overdone its Friday‘s move had been. Not that other base metals would be that pessimistic. Similarly to precious metals and the early tightening phase, commodities would be under temporary pressure as well, but outperforming as we officially enter stagflation. Not too tough to imagine given the GDP growth downgrades. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Great finish to the week, but S&P 500 bulls have quite a job ahead – it continues being choppy out there. I‘m still looking at bonds with tech for direction. Credit Markets HYG finally turned around, and Friday was a risk-on day. The question remains how far can the retracement (yes, it‘s retracement only) reach – can the pre-FOMC highs be approached? Could be, could be. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreated, but no chart damage was done – things are still going sideways as the countdown is on for the Fed to either tighten too much and send markets crashing, or reverse course (again). Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and why should it be given that it can‘t be printed. Some backing and filling is ahead before the uptrend reasserts itself. Copper Copper is the only red flag, and seeing it rebound would call off the amber light. This is the greatest non-confirmation of the commodities direction in quite a while, and that‘s why I‘m taking it with more than a pinch of salt. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Summary S&P 500 bulls finally moved in an otherwise volatile and choppy week. For the days ahead, volatility is likely to calm down somewhat, but chop is likely to be with us still – only that I expect it to be of the bullish flavor. 10-year Treasury yield has calmed down, and that would be constructive for stocks – watch next for the 2-year to take notice likewise. The 2-year Treasury is quite sensitive to the anticipated Fed moves, and illustrates well the rate hike fears – coupled with the compressed 10-year to 2-year ratio, we‘re looking at rising expectation of the Fed policy mistake (in tightening too much, too fast). For now though, stocks can recover somewhat, and most of the commodities can keep on appreciating. Precious metals keep being in the waiting game, very resilient, and will turn out one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
If It Had Been Basketball, We Might Say S&P 500 Had Been Blocked!

If It Had Been Basketball, We Might Say S&P 500 Had Been Blocked!

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.01.2022 16:01
S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
One More Time

One More Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.01.2022 15:53
Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation – as the Fed just stood pat, open oil profits are rising.But stocks took a dive before recovering, carving out a fourth in a row lower knot – the bulls are invited to participate, and open stock market profits are moving up again. Also note the divergence between HYG trading at its recent lows while S&P 500 clearly isn‘t. The immediate pressure would be to go higher, and that concerns also copper, and to a smaller degree cryptos. All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity.That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSetback and reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is though still carving out a tradable bottom. I‘m looking for the index to return above 4,400 and then take on the 4,500 point of control next.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, the panic is there – higher yields across the board without a clear risk-on turn holding. Today is a time for reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge. The metals are anticipating the upcoming liquidity squeeze, which won‘t be pretty until the Fed changes course. Not that it truly started, for that matter.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have confirmed they were back, and are ready for more – clearly not daunted by the Fed messaging, and that has implications for inflation ahead. It would really be more persistent than generally appreciated, I‘m telling you.CopperCopper is still in the catching breath phase – not yielding, and that‘s still saying something about inflation and real economy.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are on guard, and ready to move somewhat higher next – for now, lacking conviction, there is no Ethereum outperformance either.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to come back, and prove that the first FOMC move, is the fake one – no, I don‘t mean the moonshot to 4,450 in the first moments. That would be the move I‘m looking for still, and it would be led by the coming tech upswing. Check the commodities resilience to the rising rates prospects – gold and silver need a reprieve in bonds badly to catch breath again, and it would come at the expense of the dollar. For now, markets are afraid of the looming liquidity crunch and Fed policy mistake as the yield curve continues compressing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Rushing Headlong

Rushing Headlong

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 26.01.2022 16:34
Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is what a tradable S&P 500 bottom looks like – just as it was most likely to turn out. After the 200-day moving average, 4,500 point of control is the next target.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – this is how a budding reversal looks like, especially since the selling hasn‘t picked up ahead of the Fed. Turning already.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver pause was barely noticeable – it‘s a great sight of upcoming strength in the metals while miners unfortunately would continue underperforming to a degree, i.e. not leading decisively.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are back, how did you like the pause? The ride higher isn‘t over by a long shot, and I like the volume of late being this much aligned.CopperCopper looks to be catching breath before another (modest but still) upswing. The buyers aren‘t yet rushing headlong.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum reversed, and are participating in the risk-on upturn, with Ethereum sending out quite nice short-term signs. From the overall portfolio view and upcoming volatility though, I would prefer to wait before making any move here.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood yesterday‘s test, and are well positioned to extend gains, especially on the upcoming well received FOMC statement and soothing press conference. It had also turned out that a tech upswing is more likely to be continued today than yesterday – the Fed‘s words would calm down bonds, and that would enable a better Nasdaq upswing.As I wrote yesterday, the table is set for an upside FOMC surprise – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals – and I would add today once again in a while that real assets upswing would coincide with the dollar moving lower later today (check those upper knots of late). So far so good in risk-on, inflation trades – and things will get even better as my regular readers know (I can‘t underline how much you can benefit from regularly reading the full analyses as these are about how I arrive at the profitable conclusions presented & how you can twist them to your own purposes).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Declined, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Isn't Far From November's Levels

S&P 500 Declined, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Isn't Far From November's Levels

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.01.2022 15:55
Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around). VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable. Credit Markets HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium-term. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday. Copper Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline. Summary S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Crude Oil is Rapidly Climbing, the Rest Is Moving Down or Not At All

Crude Oil is Rapidly Climbing, the Rest Is Moving Down or Not At All

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.01.2022 16:05
S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next. Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet. The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen, volume isn‘t yet at capitulation levels – rebound off increasingly oversold levels is approaching. Tech melting down faster than value is to be expected – look for consumer staples to do fine too, not just the sectors mentioned above. As written on Friday, the turn in bleeding in credit markets and tech may stop as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take. Credit Markets HYG paused for a day while quality debt instruments rose – that‘s still risk-off, but symptomatic of the larger battle and buying interest at these levels already. Could presage a respite in stocks during the regular session next. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver indeed paused a little – in spite of the miners weakness, that‘s no reversal. Most likely only a temporary correction within a developing uptrend. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are finally getting tested, and by the look of oil stocks, it‘s not going to be a test reaching too far. Not even volume rose on the day – look for price stabilization followed by another upswing. Copper Copper had actually a hidden bullish day – a good consolidation of prior gains. While the volume isn‘t pointing the clearly bearish way, the amplitude of the move can be repeated next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum Sunday rally fizzled out, and the downswing doesn‘t look to be yet over as another day of panic across the board is ahead. No signs from cryptos that the slide is stopping now. Summary S&P 500 bulls are readying a surprise – the long string of red days is coming to a pause. Credit markets turning a bit risk-on coupled with a tech pause and financials revival (not to mention consumer staples and energy) would be the recipe to turn the tide. We‘re in a large S&P 500 range, and got quite near its lower band at around 4,300. The short rides are to be wound down shortly, and that will coincide with another commodities run higher. Look to precious metals likewise not to disappoint while cryptos continue struggling at the moment. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Still Pushing for More

Still Pushing for More

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.01.2022 16:23
S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. Tech investors are selling first, and asking questions later, with consumer discretionaries, financials, and also energy hit. The washout S&P 500 bottom is approaching, and our fresh short profits are growing...Talking profits, after a one-day consolidation in precious metals, time has come to cash in on crude oil gains before the decline questioning $86 – that‘s second outsized gains trade in a row there. Black gold won‘t likely be held down for too long, and the same goes for copper knocking on $4.60 for the third time shortly. Excellent for the bottom line.This is the season of real assets (commodities and precious metals), and of the stock market correction still playing out, and driving open crypto short profits alike. Much to enjoy across the board as my fresh portfolio performance chart (check out my homesite) reached a solid new high yesterday – it‘s one year today since I launched my site. Tremendous journey building on prior own strength – thank you very much!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers still can‘t get their act together – the momentum remains to the downside until credit markets turn and tech bleeding stops. This can happen as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take.Credit MarketsHYG pause didn‘t last long, and the volume keeps being elevated without credible signs of buying interest. What‘s more, the credit market posture is decidedly risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are likely to pause a little, the miners say – but the propensity to rise is there, even this early in the tightening cycle. I‘m looking for dips to be eagerly bought.Crude OilCrude oil looks like seeing the bullish resolve tested soon, and odds are the dip would be relatively quickly bought. Still, the pace of steep upswings is likely to slow down next, I say so even as I continue being medium-term bullish ($90 is doable).CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up, and it‘s good the red metal managed to rise even if quite a few other commodities stalled. Waking up alongside silver, finally?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum little breather is over, the bears did strike again – and it may not be over yet, really not.SummaryThe opening sentence of yesterday‘s summary proved very true, and even faster that I thought possible - „S&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only.“ With the bears in the driving seat overnight – on the heels of a risk-off turn in the credit markets – we‘re likely to witness today another selling attempt.Another yesterday mentioned conclusion remains true as well - „Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously... Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.“ Let‘s just add that cryptos are making us smile today, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Another One Bites the Dust

Another One Bites the Dust

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.01.2022 16:36
S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and credit markets confirm the grim picture. There is a but, though – quality debt instruments turned higher, and maintained much of their intraday gains.And that could be a sign – in spite of the bearish onslaught driving the buyers back to the basement before the closing bell – that more buying would materialize to close this week, with consequences for S&P 500 as well. I would simply have preferred to see rising yields once again, that would be a great catalyst of further stock market selling. Now, the wisest course of action looks to be waiting for the upcoming upswing (one that didn‘t develop during the Asian session really), to get exhausted.Remember my yesterday‘s words:(…) The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line.Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking.And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job.With SPX short profits off the table, crude oil consolidating, and cryptos having second thoughts about the decline continuation, it‘s been precious metals that stole the spotlight yesterday – really great moves across the board to enjoy!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen – what kind of reflexive rebound would we get next? The odds aren‘t arrayed for it to be reaching very high – yields are catching up even with financials...Credit MarketsHYG is likely to pause a little next, and the degree of its move relative to the quality debt instruments, would be telling. Rates are though going to keep rising, so keep looking for a temporary HYG stabilization only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver keep catching fire, and are slowly breaking out of the unpleasantly long consolidation. The strongly bullish undertones are playing out nicely – these aren‘t yet the true celebrations.Crude OilCrude oil looks like it could pause a little here – the stellar run (by no means over yet) is attracting selling interest. The buyers are likely to pause for a moment over the next few days.CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up – the red metal will be dragged higher alongside the other commodities, and isn‘t yet offering signs of true, outperforming strength.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum really are setting up a little breather, but I‘m not looking for bullish miracles to happen. Still, the buying interest was there yesterday, and that would influence the entry to the coming week (bullishly).SummaryS&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only. Not until there is a change in the credit markets, have the stock market bulls snowball‘s chance in hell. Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously, and the time for another position opening, looks slowly but surely approaching. Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) Went Up Some Time Ago, But Recently It Decreased Again

S&P 500 (SPX) Went Up Some Time Ago, But Recently It Decreased Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.01.2022 15:51
S&P 500 plunged to open the week – how fitting given the unfinished job in tech and Treasuries. The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line. Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking. And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job. So, let‘s keep enjoying the SPX short and oil long profits, while having an eye on how far can the bulls move the 500-strong index today. That would require quite a move in bonds and tech… Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The rise in volume doesn‘t qualify as accumulation just yet, and that detracts a little from the developing rebound. I still think we‘re likely to go down some more, but will happily reenter at higher levels as I was just taken out of the current position. Credit Markets HYG had a weak session – there is no outperformance of quality debt instruments to speak of. Crucially, cyclicals were unfazed with higher yields, which may be a sign of temporary exhaustion to the downside approaching. Bear markets simply like to take a breather before the sellers return. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are sending a mixed message – but it isn‘t one of worry. GDX actually printed a nice upper knot yesterday while silver rose in spite of the USD upswing. Classic signs of a top and impending slide? Formally, but I don‘t think that‘s applicable given the metals performance over the past few months. Crude Oil Crude oil is still on the path of least resistance – higher. No true reversal to be seen yet, but some sideways to up consolidation in the absence of geopolitic conflagration, is very much possible. Copper Copper missed another opportunity to catch up – postponed a little, it will still happen. It had been the red metal doing better than silver over quite a few 2020-2021 months, and silver now looks out of the blue to have woken up a little. More confirmation from the red metal would be helpful here. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum may be setting up a little breather but unless the 2022 highs are taken out, the most probable path next, is to the downside. This direction still makes most sense. Summary S&P 500 is staging an upswing, which could still turn into a dead cat bounce. That‘s still my leading scenario, but I would prefer to see the constellation when the bulls get tired again, first. Remember that the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets – and while we aren‘t in an S&P 500 bear market yet, this correction is likely to turn out on the really memorable side of the spectrum since the bull market was born on Mar 23, 2020. It‘s all about developing appreciation for the Fed‘s tools practical limits, still expansive fiscal policy and absolutely unyielding inflation (in that it‘s beyond the tastefully palatable limits). The unfolding correction for us to go through still would set the stage for a good 2H advance. As written in Monday‘s extensive analysis, the early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Oil Smashing Stocks

Oil Smashing Stocks

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.01.2022 15:48
S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels.That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening.Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year.Both yellow and black gold would rise in tandem, and the rising open crude oil profits (heavy long positions opened at $78) are part of the reason behind permanently elevated inflation ahead. The commodities upswing is also no longer tempered by the rising dollar.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThe tech reversal could carry the daily weight of S&P 500 upswing – the daily weight only. I‘m not looking for this modest show of strength to hold.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t close strongly either – rising yields are taking their toll, and will continue doing so.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver downswing needn‘t be feared – while the metals are still sideways, the pressure to go up is building, and the dollar woes would be but the first catalyst (challenged faith in the Fed taming inflation would be next).Crude OilCrude oil still finds it easiest to keep rising, and black gold could pause a little on the approach to $90 – the technical and fundamental upswing conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be among the best S&P 500 performers.CopperCopper catch up was postponed a little – that‘s all. The decline wasn‘t a true reversal, and the red metal would take on $4.60 before too long again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum still can‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now – today‘s session definitely confirms that.SummaryS&P 500 upswing isn‘t to be trusted, and its defensive nature out of tune with bonds, is part of the reason why. The stock market correction has further to go, and while tech overall would do well in 2022, it has to decline first – that would set the stage for a good 2H advance. The early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 (SPX) Chart Looks Like An Interesting Mountain Trip. Oil keeps moving up

S&P 500 (SPX) Chart Looks Like An Interesting Mountain Trip. Oil keeps moving up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.01.2022 15:18
S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels. That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening. Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year. Both yellow and black gold would rise in tandem, and the rising open crude oil profits (heavy long positions opened at $78) are part of the reason behind permanently elevated inflation ahead. The commodities upswing is also no longer tempered by the rising dollar. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The tech reversal could carry the daily weight of S&P 500 upswing – the daily weight only. I‘m not looking for this modest show of strength to hold. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t close strongly either – rising yields are taking their toll, and will continue doing so. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver downswing needn‘t be feared – while the metals are still sideways, the pressure to go up is building, and the dollar woes would be but the first catalyst (challenged faith in the Fed taming inflation would be next). Crude Oil Crude oil still finds it easiest to keep rising, and black gold could pause a little on the approach to $90 – the technical and fundamental upswing conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be among the best S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper catch up was postponed a little – that‘s all. The decline wasn‘t a true reversal, and the red metal would take on $4.60 before too long again. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum still can‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now – today‘s session definitely confirms that. Summary S&P 500 upswing isn‘t to be trusted, and its defensive nature out of tune with bonds, is part of the reason why. The stock market correction has further to go, and while tech overall would do well in 2022, it has to decline first – that would set the stage for a good 2H advance. The early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
All Eyes on Copper

All Eyes on Copper

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.01.2022 15:36
S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick. Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500. The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there! The red metal has defied base metals intraday consolidation yesterday, and that has consequences for inflation trades – silver is waiting in the wings. To give you an idea how mispriced the risk of persistently unpleasant inflation is, yesterday‘s CPI coming only in line with expectations, caused inflation expectations to decline… At least the dollar took a rightful breather – its prior sideways consolidation has been broken to the downside. Currencies are starting to figure out inflation, and just how far and inadequate Fed‘s promise to take on it, has been... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Daily consolidation of prior strong gains that‘s likely to go on today – stocks are making up their mind as to where next in the very short run now that the bears had been repelled. Credit Markets HYG is likewise looking to need some time to move higher next – volume is declining, and a brief sideways move is most likely now. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still sideways to up – not down. The pressure to go higher is building up, waiting for the Fed miscalculation, or perception of the consequencies of its upcoming action. The faith in the central bank isn‘t yet really shaken. Crude Oil Crude oil finds it easiest to keep rising – the technical and fundamental conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be the leading S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper is starting to play catch up to the other commodities finally – it‘ll be a rocky ride, but the red metal has waken up, and cast a clear verdict on inflation that has to seep into other markets next. Will take time, but we‘ll get there. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now. Summary S&P 500 turnaround is getting cemented, and worries about the hawkish Fed or inflation look to be momentarily receding. Not even the PPI is waking up the markets – the focus seems to be on measly 0.1% undershoot. Ironic, pathetic. While stocks keep on moving in a tight range, and still want to keep on appreciating modestly, the real action is happening in the commodities, to be followed by precious metals. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Riding Out Inflation in Style

Riding Out Inflation in Style

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.01.2022 16:24
S&P 500 refused further downside, tech caught fire, and credit markets staged a risk-on reversal. The bond upswing is the most important element – Powell‘s testimony wasn‘t able to ignite further rise in yields at the moment.Couple that with continued energy surge, and we‘re looking at real assets being very favorably positioned here (relatively easiest gains ahead), and that has profitable consequences for oil, copper and precious metals bulls. Even cryptos like the fact that CPI didn‘t come above expectations.Stock market fate is though tied to the Treasuries and corporate bonds – keeping an eye on the tech sensitivity to both advancing and retreating yields is of paramount importance, with financials not sticking higher as a sore thumb among other S&P 500 sectors being the other.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFresh attempt at the lows was repelled, and the bulls aren‘t looking too spooked. Market breadth hasn‘t plunged to new lows, and is being slowly improved. It looks like we‘re about to keep moving up before the bears return.Credit MarketsHYG reversal looks credible, even if the volume was lower. It‘s risk on as HYG outperformed – the next question is how would it fare when yields rise again.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver position is improving, and I like it that miners keep coming alive. As written yesterday, the stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation.Crude OilCrude oil is performing just right – breaking higher from the prior flag-like structure, and simultaneously being inspired by the oil stocks example – $80 resistance has been decisively taken out.CopperLooking at today‘s price action, the time of copper playing catch up to the other commodities has arrived already – the bears indeed aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are turning a corner, but animal spirits aren‘t there now – are cryptos more aware of the coming liquidity challenges? The rebound is lacking fervor still.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround succeeded, and markets are choosing to ignore the hawkish Fed and high inflation data. That‘s all good for commodities and then precious metals, but would catch up with stocks over time – in the sense that paper assets would underperform. For now, the S&P 500 bears have been repelled, and it would take a fresh round of higher yields forcing tech down, to knock the 500-strong index lower, which isn‘t likely to happen today. Overall, we‘re looking at still a good year in stocks (check the Latest Highlights for big picture picks), but 2H 2022 would be calmer than the prior 180 days.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Would they sell S&P 500 (SPX)?

Would they sell S&P 500 (SPX)?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.01.2022 15:41
S&P 500 reversed sharp intraday losses, and credit markets moved in a decisive daily risk-on fashion. Turnarounds anywhere you look – HYG, TLT, XLK… but will that last? VIX having closed where it opened, points to still some unfinished job on the upside, meaning the bears would return shortly – but given how fast they gave up the great run yesterday, I‘m not looking for them to make too much progress too soon. Good to have taken yesterday‘s short profits off the table. Assessing the charts, it‘s great (for the bulls) that tech liked the long-dated Treasuries reversal to such a degree – and that value closed little changed on the day (its candle is certainly ominously looking). As a result, we‘re looking at a budding reversal that can still go both ways, and revisit 4,650s in the bearish case at least. Remember that tech apart from $NYFANG lagged, and financials aren‘t yet broken either, meaning that the credit market upswing better be taken with a pinch of salt. True, rates have risen fast since the New Year, and the pace of yield increases has to moderate. I‘m of the opinion that yesterday‘s good Nasdaq showing hasn‘t yet turned tech bullish, and that we still face a move lower ahead. As written yesterday: (…) This is part of the flight from growth into value, which we will see more of in 2022. The same for still unpleasantly high inflation which won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed – not even if they really allow notes and bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds already in Mar. The train has left the station more than 6 or 9 months ago when they were pushing the transitory thesis I had been disputing. We have truly moved into the persistently high inflation paradigm, and it would be accompanied by wage inflation and strong precious metals and commodities runs. We‘re looking at very good year in gold and silver while the turbulence in stocks is just starting, and we have quite a few percent more to go on the downside. Oil and copper are set up for great gains too. This will be a year when monetary and fiscal policy work at odds, when they contradict each other. Inflation would catch up with the economic growth in that inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise. Signs of real estate softening would also appear – it‘s all about housing starts. While rates would rise (2.00% in 10-year Treasury is perfectly achievable), it won‘t catch up with inflation in the least – hello some more negative rates, and financial repression driving real assets. Rhymes perfectly with the 1970s. Stocks aren‘t yet out of the woods, the yesterday opened oil position is already profitable, cryptos likewise maintain a gainful slant to the Sunday-opened short – meanwhile, precious metals are once again catching breadth to rise, and the same goes for copper. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bid arrived, and the bottom may or may not be in – in spite of the beautiful lower knot, I‘m leaning towards the hypothesis that there would be another selling wave. Credit Markets HYG reversal looks certainly more credible than the S&P 500 one. LQD though didn‘t rise, which is a little surprising – on the other hand though, that‘s part of the risk-on posture, which would have been made clearer by LQD upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver position is improving, and I like the miners coming alive. The stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation. Crude Oil Crude oil looks to have declined as much as it could in the short run – I‘m looking for another run to take out $80 – see how little ground oil stocks lost? Copper Copper didn‘t outshine, didn‘t disappoint – its long sideways move continues, the red metal remains well bid, and would play catch up to the other commodities – the bears aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months. Bitcoin and Ethereum Just as I wrote yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading on a weak note, and the sellers are likely to return soon. This certainly doesn‘t look like a good time to buy. Summary S&P 500 turnaround has a question mark on it – one that I‘m more inclined to think would lead to further selling than a run above 4,720. The tech and bonds progress would be challenged again – we‘re still way too early in the Fed tightening cycle when the headwinds are only becoming to be appreciated. The room for negative surprises and kneejerk reactions is still there (the job market isn‘t standing really in the Fed‘s way), and it would likely take stocks (and cryptos) down while being less of an issue for real assets – be it commodities or precious metals. Wage pressures and unfilled vacancies are likely to last, meaning the inflation would be persistent – the staglationary era coupled with inflation-induced economic slowdown surprise I mentioned yesterday, awaits. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 probably doesn't attract investors, gold and silver recovering?

S&P 500 probably doesn't attract investors, gold and silver recovering?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.01.2022 12:33
S&P 500 indecisiveness Thursday gave way to another down day, and it doesn‘t look to be over in the least. Tech still isn‘t catching breadth enough – and that was my key condition of declaring a reprieve in the selling, if not a turnaround. Likewise credit markets don‘t offer optimistic signs – it‘s still risk-off there, and the sharp rise in yields is putting inordinate pressure on many a tech stock. True, the behemoths aren‘t that much affected, but even a glance at semiconductors tells you that the rot is running deeper than apparent from $NYFANG. This is part of the flight from growth into value, which we will see more of in 2022. The same for still unpleasantly high inflation which won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed – not even if they really allow notes and bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds already in Mar. The train has left the station more than 6 or 9 months ago when they were pushing the transitory thesis I had been disputing. We have truly moved into the persistently high inflation paradigm, and it would be accompanied by wage inflation and strong precious metals and commodities runs. We‘re looking at very good year in gold and silver while the turbulence in stocks is just starting, and we have quite a few percent more to go on the downside. Oil and copper are set up for great gains too. This will be a year when monetary and fiscal policy work at odds, when they contradict each other. Inflation would catch up with the economic growth in that inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise. Signs of real estate softening would also appear – it‘s all about housing starts. While rates would rise (2.00% in 10-year Treasury is perfectly achievable), it won‘t catch up with inflation in the least – hello some more negative rates, and financial repression driving real assets. Rhymes perfectly with the 1970s. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook No real floor has materialized in either S&P 500 or tech. Volume didn‘t rise, the buyers aren‘t yet interested – we have to get at more oversold levels. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t build on Thursday‘s advance one iota, and still looks to me melting down. While the 10-year closed at 1.76%, we aren‘t looking at such sharp bond ETF downswings – and the degree in which tech reacts next, would be telling. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staged an orderly recovery, still tiptoeing around the hawkish Fed, whose tightening cycle would turn out shorter than they think. And sniffing that out, would be the turning point in the metals. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls took a daily pause, but expect it to be short-lived. We‘re looking at triple digit oil not too many months away. Copper Copper pared back Thursday‘s setback, and definitely isn‘t overheated. The sideways consolidation that would be resolved to the upside, continues – the bears are fighting a losing battle. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading on a weak note, and the sellers are likely to return soon. This certainly doesn‘t look like a good time to buy. Summary S&P 500 still hasn‘t turned, and I‘m looking for more weakness – tech continues leading to the downside, and bond reprieve hasn‘t yet arrived. Anyway, it‘s questionable how fast tech would react – value can‘t keep S&P 500 afloat by itself. The realization of the hawkish Fed is here as much as the jobs data not standing in their tightening plans (wage pressures are here as quite a lot of vacancies remains unfilled – hello, full employment) – and assets are reacting. As I have stated in the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs of today‘s big picture analysis (investors would appreciate thoroughly), we‘re in for a challenging year in stocks, a great one in precious metals and most commodities – and definitely in for turbulence arriving, pulled over into 1H 2022 courtesy of the Fed. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Honeymoon Is Over?

Honeymoon Is Over?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.01.2022 16:03
S&P 500 didn‘t shake off the post-FOMC minutes selloff in the least – and credit markets don‘t offer much short-term clarity either. Probably the brightest sign comes from the intraday reversal in financials higher – but tech still isn‘t catching breadth, which is key to the 500-strong index recovery. Bonds remained in the count down mode, as in not yet having regained composure and risk-on posture.The bottom might not be in, taking more time to play out – if we see a really strong non-farm payrolls figure, the odds of Fed tapering and rate hiking seriously drawing nearer, would be bolstered – to the detriment of most assets. So, we could be looking at a weak entry to today‘s S&P 500 session. But as the data came in at measly 199K, more uncertainty is introduced – will they or won‘t they (taper this fast and hike) – which works to drive chop and volatility.We‘re looking at another risk-off day today – and a reflexive but relatively tame rally in quality debt instruments. Crude oil is likely to be least affected, followed by copper as the red metals takes a second look at its recent weakness going at odds with broader commodities strength. Precious metals look to be a better bet in weathering the tightening into a weak economy storm than cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNeither tech nor value offered clues for today‘s session – the downswing overall feels as having some more to go still, and that‘s based on the charts only. Add in the fundamentals, and it could get tougher still.Credit MarketsHYG upswing solidly rejected, and not even high volume helped the bulls – the dust doesn‘t look to be settled here either.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver feel the heat, and it might not be yet over in the short run, miners say. Still, note the big picture – we‘re still in a long sideways consolidation where the bears are unable to make lasting progress.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are enjoying the advantage here – firmly in the driver‘s seat. Pullback are being bought, and will likely continue being bought – the upcoming maximum downside will be very indicative of bulls‘ strength to overcome $80 lastingly.CopperCopper‘s misleading weakness continues, and similarly to precious metals, it‘s bidding its time as no heavy chart damage is being inflicted through this dillydallying.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are in a weaker spot, and the bearish pressure may easily increase here even more. This doesn‘t look to be the time to buy yet.SummaryS&P 500 still remains on edge and under pressure until convincing signs of turnaround develop – yesterday‘s session didn‘t qualify. With further proof of challenged real economy, a fresh uncertainty (how‘s that going to weather the hawkish Fed, and are they to listen and attenuate, or not?) is being introduced – short-term chop would give way to an increase in volatility. In the non-farm payrolls aftermath, markets haven‘t yet made up their minds – it‘s the riskier end of the asset classes to take the heat the most here (starting with cryptos). Don‘t look though for a tremendous rush into Treasuries – tech decoupling from the rising yields would be a first welcome sign of a local bottom.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Game of Chicken

Game of Chicken

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.01.2022 16:18
FOMC minutes didn‘t reveal fresh hawkish tunes, but markets were caught off guard – unlike 3 weeks ago during the statement and press conference. It‘s as if S&P 500 and pretty much everything else woke up to the hawkish reality only now. In spite of the new liquidity powered Santa Claus rally, the sudden realization that the March Fed meeting might very well bring in a first rate hike, forced a sharp downturn across the board.The dollar wasn‘t too affected by the daily rise in yields that hit junk bonds particularly hard. The yield curve keeps being compressed, and is getting closer to the point of inversion. The likely good employment data on Friday would provide the Fed with a convenient cover to embark on and keep pursuing the tightening route. Not that it would have the power to break inflation (even at the professed very accelerated tapering pace – let alone the relatively measly hikes when CPI, PPI or PCE deflator are considered) – this game of chicken with the markets risks a tantrum that could bring up the „fond memories“ of Dec 2018.Yes, the risks of crashing the airplane would grow up over the coming weeks and months – the Fed is walking a very tight rope indeed. Markets are spooked, and the coming days would show whether this is already the start of something worse, or whether we can still shake it off and continue upwards till the Olympics. I‘m still leaning towards the latter.Anyway, good to have closed the profitable S&P 500 and crude oil positions in time.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTech understandably declined more than value – thanks to yields. S&P 500 bottom might not yet be in really. Bonds and tech need to stabilize first.Credit MarketsHYG is still holding the key, and would provide an early turnaround sign. The plunge in LQD isn‘t looking short-term encouraging in the least – the dust hasn‘t yet settled.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver still haven‘t left the sideways consolidation pattern – the white metal would be more affected through the inflation taming fears. That‘s though a premature calculation as inflation might turn out less amenable to be put down fast.Crude OilUnlike practically everything else, crude oil recovered strongly from the FOMC-induced setback – and certainly looks like the strongest of the pack at the moment.CopperCopper gave up advantageous position, and isn‘t really following (energy-led) commodities up yet. The long sideways consolidation is testing the bulls‘ resolve even as the pressure to go higher is building up. The same for silver, by the way.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum clearly lost the remainder of the bullish posture – it‘s turning out they aren‘t ready to defy the shrinking global liquidity.SummaryS&P 500 bulls look to get under some more pressure before the repeated hawkish message gets absorbed. The bond markets coupled with the dollar would reveal just how serious the bulls are about buying this dip and now. My bet is that they would remain shaken, and looking hesitantly for a floor. If there is one overarching message from yesterday, it‘s that the hawkish Fed appreciation has been woefully misapprehanded, and if followed through on in its entirety, would lead to a dangerous game of chicken with the markets (we aren‘t there quite yet).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Crude Oil are ones you're likely to watch

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Crude Oil are ones you're likely to watch

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.01.2022 15:55
Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome. The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end. That‘s all constructive for stock market bulls, and coupled with the fresh surge in commodities (and precious metals), bodes well for the S&P 500 not to crater soon again. Another positive sign comes from the dollar, which wasn‘t really able to keep intraday gains in spite of the rising Treasury yields. Cryptos though remain cautious (unlike precious metals which moved nicely off Monday‘s oversold levels – on a daily basis oversold), so we‘re in for a muddle through with a generally and gently bullish bias this week… until non-farrm payrolls surprise on Friday (and markets would probably interpret it as a reason to rise). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps respectably treading water, waiting for Nasdaq to kick in – odds are we won‘t have to wait for a modest upswing in both for too long. Credit Markets HYG is the key next – holding above yesterday‘s lows would give stocks enough breathing room, and so would however modest quality debt instruments upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are leading miners, but the respectable daily volume makes up for this non-confirmation. The table is set for the floor below gold and silver to hold, while a very convincing miners move has to still wait. Crude Oil Everything is ready for the crude oil upswing – even if oil stocks pause next, which can be expected if tech stages a good rally. Until then, it‘s bullish for both $WTIC and $XOI. Copper Copper is keeping the upswing alive, and any pullbacks don‘t have good odds of taking the red metal below 4.39 lastingly. Still, copper remains range bound for now, and the pressure to go higher, is building up. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum lost the bullish slant, but didn‘t turn bearish yet – this hesitation is disconcerting, but it would be premature to jump the gun. It‘s still more likely that cryptos would defy the shrinking global liquidity, and try to stage a modest rally. Summary S&P 500 internals reveal tech getting hurt yesterday, and at the same time getting ready for a brief upswing of the dead cat bounce flavor. And if HYG kicks back in, odds increase dramatically that the tech (and by extension S&P 500) upswing won‘t be a dead cat bounce (please note that I‘m not implying vulnerability to a large downswing) – that‘s my leading scenario, which should materialize by Friday‘s market open. Yes, I‘m looking for non-farm payrolls to be well received once the dust settles. Till then, commodities are paving the way for further stock market gains, with precious metals turning out not too shabby either. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Can't skip S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq

Can't skip S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.01.2022 15:53
Very good S&P 500 entry to 2022, and the HYG intraday reversal is the sight to rejoice. In the sea of rising yields, both tech and value managed to do well – the market breadth keeps improving as not only the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages shows. Likewise VIX refused to reach even 19, and instead is attacking 16.50. This is not complacency – the bulls were thoroughly shaken at the entry to the session yesterday – but a buying interest that convincingly turned the tide during the day. As I wrote yesterday: (…) thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. The only sector taking a beating yesterday, were precious metals. While inflation expectations were little changed (don‘t look for inflation to go away any time soon as I‘ve been making the case repeatedly), the daily rise in yields propelled the dollar to reverse Friday‘s decline, and that knocked both gold and silver off the high perch they closed at last week. Still, none of the fundamental or monetary with fiscal policy originating reasoning has been invalidated – not even the charts were damaged badly by Monday‘s weakness. As economic growth gets questioned while fiscal policy remains expansive unlike the monetary one, volatily in the stock market together with persistent inflation would be putting a nice floor beneath the metals. Even cryptos are refusing to yield much ground, the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio keeps trading positively, and I‘m not even talking the rubber band that commodities (crude oil and copper) are. Very good for our open positions there, as much as in the S&P 500 – let them keep bringing profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Really bullish price action in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq – that was the entry to 2022 I was looking for. Embellished with prior downswing that lends more credibility to the intraday reversal. Credit Markets HYG refusing to decline more, is the most bullish sign for today imaginable – let it hold, for junk bonds now hold the key, especially if quality debt instruments keep declining steeply. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to have reversed, but reaching such a conclusion would be premature. The long basing pattern goes on, and breakout higher would follow once the Fed‘s attempting to take the punch bowl away inflicts damage on the real economy (and markets), which is what the yield curve compression depicts. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to launch higher – and it‘s not a matter of solid oil stocks performance only. Just look at the volume – it didn‘t disappoint, and in the risk-on revival that I expect for today, black gold would benefit. Copper Copper swooned, but regained composure – the stop run is over, and we‘re back to base building for the coming upswing. Broader commodities certainly agree. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are very gently leaning bullish, but I‘m not sounding the all clear there yet thanks to how long Bitcoin is dillydallying. Cryptos aren‘t yet out of the woods, but their posture has improved thus far noticeably. Summary First trading day of 2022 extended prior S&P 500 gains, and the risk-on appetite is improving as we speak. Commodities are reaping the rewards, and we‘re looking at another good day ahead, including in precious metals taking a bite at yesterday‘s inordinately large downswing. Nothing of the big factors ahead for Q1 2022 as described in today‘s analysis (I wholeheartedly recommend reading it in full for the greatest benefits – there is only so much / little that I can fit into a one paragraph summary), and that means we‘re looking at further stock market gains as the bull runs (including in commodities and precious metals, yes precious metals), aren‘t over in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Let's have a look at S&P 500, Crude Oil, Nasdaq and Credit Markets. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows.

Let's have a look at S&P 500, Crude Oil, Nasdaq and Credit Markets. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows.

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.01.2022 15:57
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising. Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words: (…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. Finally, cryptos look to be in agreement with not reading too much to Friday‘s downswings – both Bitcoin and Ethereum are turning up as $46K in BTC held up once again. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Nasdaq got a little oversold relative to S&P 500 – this is not the start of a fresh downtrend. Once financials and consumer discretionaries turn up, the rally will be on better footing again. Credit Markets HYG could have declined some more, but tellingly didn‘t. Bonds aren‘t ready to turn to risk-off just yet. Upswing attempt next shouldn‘t be surprising in the least. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking at a much better year than was 2021. Stock market volatility, GDP growth challenges and persistent inflation would help the metals and commodities rise. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to move up again as gains were taken off the table on Friday. With the omicron response and related pronouncements coming in lately from the U.S., what else to expect – a great deal of destroyed demand doesn‘t look to be ahead. Copper Copper undid the prior pause, and looks ready to keep defending the $4.43 area. The long consolidation that started in May, would be eventually broken to the upside. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum may be short-term undecided, but don‘t look willing to decline. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows. Summary First trading day of 2022 is likely to extend prior gains, resolving the prior sideways move. As risk-on faltered on Friday, S&P 500 and cryptos are likely to catch up, and oil would probably outperform copper today while precious metals digest very solid New Year‘s Eve gains. We‘re nowhere near the good days ending just yet – turbulence would come once Fed tapering gets really noticeable (post Olympics), with VIX trending higher well before that already. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback

Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.12.2021 15:49
S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. Given the continued risk-off turn in bonds, the stock market setback could have been more than a tad deeper – that would be the conclusion at first glance. However, high yield corporate bonds held up much better than quality debt instruments, and that means the superficial look would have been misleading. Likewise as regards my other 2 signs out of the 3 yesterday presented ones – tech held up fine, and cryptos have practically erased yesterday‘s hesitation during today‘s premarket. The Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, and the slighly better than a coin toss odds of us not facing more than a very shallow correction, look to be materializing. As I wrote 2 days ago – What‘s Not to Love Here – we‘re entering 2022 with great open profits in both S&P 500 (entered aggressively at 4,672) and crude oil (entered with full force at $67.60). Both rides aren‘t yet over, copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. We had a good year of strong gains, and I hope you have benefited. Thank you for all your appreciation and best wishes sent my way throughout all of 2021 and now by email or via Twitter – I would love to wish you a very Happy New Year – may 2022 keep bringing you happiness, success and good health. Enjoy the New Year‘s Eve celebrations, and see you again on Jan 03, 2022! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 consolidation is still shaping up finely – and does so on solid internals. Particularly the tech resilience is a good omen. Credit Markets HYG could have indeed declined some more, but didn‘t. While I‘m not reading all too much into this signal individually, it fits the (still bullish) mozaic completed by other markets on my watch. That‘s the strength of intermarket analysis. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver got on the defensive, but the bears didn‘t get too far – and the chance they could have, wasn‘t too bad. Rising yields were though countered by the declining dollar. Crude Oil Crude oil is likely to pause today, and will rally again once risk-on returns broadly, including into credit markets. For now, backing and filling above $76 is my leading very short-term scenario – Monday though will be a fresh day. Copper Copper is pausing, but the downswing didn‘t reach far, and was bought relatively fast. More consolidation above $4.40 looks likely, and it would come with a generally bullish bias that‘s apt to surprise on the upside. Similarly to precious metals though, patience. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback, and as long as mid-Dec lows don‘t come in sight again, crypto prices can muddle through with a gently bullish bias. Summary Santa Claus isn‘t willing to give much ground, and the table is set for this nice rally to modestly continue today – somewhere more pronouncedly (S&P 500, cryptos) than elsewhere (commodities and precious metals). I‘m still looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds – it has been great that the bears couldn‘t find more strength yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Rallying, singing "Jingle Bells", S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails

Rallying, singing "Jingle Bells", S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.12.2021 16:25
S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week. Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a significant risk-off turn (yet) – instead, we appear to be on the doorstep of another rotation, and its depth would be determined by how well tech is able to hold near current levels. Looking at precious metals, commodities and cryptos, the sellers of this risk-on rally have good odds of closing in the black for today. Earliest signs of stabilization would come from bonds, tech and cryptos – that‘s where I‘m mostly looking today. Keeping in mind the big picture – all eyes on upcoming Fed balance sheet data: (…) The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 saw a shot across the bow, and it remains to be seen whether the bears take advantage of a promising position to strike later today. Odds are they would at least try. Credit Markets HYG‘s hammer-style candle on rising volume doesn‘t bode well for today. Stabilization in junk bonds would be a most welcome sign once it arrives. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver aren‘t at all well positioned in the short-term – higher yields perhaps accompanied by consolidating inflation expectations, provide the bears with an opportunity. Crude Oil Crude oil is likewise stalling, but not too vulnerable unless fresh omicron fears return to the headlines. The $78 zone indeed looks to take a few days to be reached – I‘m still not looking at this week really. Copper Copper is taking a cautious stance – cautious, not panicky. Building a base not too far from yesterday‘s lows, would be most constructive now. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are feeling the pinch, and the Ethereum underperformance has foretold stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. Genuine downtrend hasn‘t yet developed – the bulls are being tested as we speak. Summary Santa Claus rally is getting the announced reprieve – the day of decision how far it reaches, is today. Unless bonds (I‘m looking at the junk spectrum mainly), tech and cryptos weaken inordinately much, today‘s move would come in the sideways consolidation category. Odds for that are slightly better than a coin toss, but regardless, I‘m looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds. It‘s also positive that oil remains well bid above $75.50, and copper above $4.40. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Article by Decrypt Media

S&P 500 rally, comodities and precious metals

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 28.12.2021 15:49
Broad S&P 500 rally is spilling over to precious metals and commodities – Santa Claus leaves no stone unturned, apparently. Not that yields or the dollar would move much yesterday – it‘s the omicron response relief (thus far. yet APT has risen sharply to counter the bullish and wildly profitable oil message) coupled with the yesterday mentioned market friendly Fed: (…) The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Even though junk bonds retreated from intraday highs, the rally isn‘t over yet – VIX remaining around 18 is the best that the stock bulls can hope for today (i.e. a sluggish day still retaining bullish bias). Financials and industrials had a good day, but consumer discretionaries to staples ratio leaves more than a bit to be desired. The same goes for the financials to utilities ratio. Yes, the horizon is darkening, but further gains for weeks to months to come, still lie ahead. Remember, the topping process is about fewer and fewer sectors pulling their weight, about the market generals not being followed by the troops in the coming advance. We‘re not quite there yet. The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 market breadth again improved – the increasing participation shows that the bull run isn‘t clearly over. And it also reveals that this isn‘t yet the time to expect a new correction. Credit Markets HYG stalled a little, but doesn‘t look to have definitely peaked. One look at LQD reveals the nuanced risk-off turn yesterday, which might not interfere with further stock market gains today though). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver paused, but I‘m treating it as a daily pause in an otherwise developing uptrend. Once the inflation expectations stop being as steady as they had been yesterday, the metals will like that. Crude Oil Crude oil is strongly up, and oil stocks confirm. The $78 zone comes next, and could take a few days to be reached. Copper Copper still hasn‘t arrived at true fireworks – but the long consolidation is being resolved in a bullish way (of course). Broader commodities are showing that the path of least resistance is higher in the red metal as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are foretelling stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. I don‘t think this is a start of a genuine downtrend. Summary Santa Claus rally naturally goes on, and yesterday‘s steep gains are likely to be followed with deceleration today – at least in stocks. Precious metals and commodities are catching up, and we‘re looking at a very positive close to 2021 across the board. The same goes for optimistic entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike – in Bitcoin though, I would like to see today‘s lows hold, and Ethereum to spring higher faster than Bitcoin. On a very short-term basis, S&P 500 and oil are extended today, and some trepidation shouldn‘t be surprising. The medium-term trends remain unchanged, and lead higher. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500, Nasdaq and more...

S&P 500, Nasdaq and more...

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 27.12.2021 15:56
S&P 500 and risk-on assets continued rallying, pausing only before the close. Santa Claus delivered, and the final trading week of 2021 is here. With the dollar pausing and VIX at 18 again, we‘re certainly enjoying better days while clouds gather on the horizon – Thursday‘s inability of financials to keep intraday gains while yields rose, is but one albeit short-term sign. The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Importantly, bonds prices aren‘t taking it on the chin, and the dollar hasn‘t made much progress since late Nov. Both tech and value are challenging their recent highs, and the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, is improving. The same for new highs new lows – the market breadth indicators are picking up. We haven‘t seen the stock market top yet – the rickety ride higher isn‘t over, Santa Claus rally goes on, and my 2022 outlook with targets discussed that a week ago. Precious metals are extending gains, and aren‘t yet raging ahead – the picture is one of welcome strength returning across the board. The same goes for crude oil finally rising solidly above $72 as the omicron fears are receding in light of fresh incoming data including South African policies. It‘s only copper that‘s now reflecting the prospects of real economy slowdown. At the same time, the crypto rebound last week served as a confirmation of broad risk-on advance. Still more to come, as per Thursday‘s article title. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is within spitting distance of ATHs, and the bulls haven‘t said the last word in spite of the approaching need to take a rest. It‘s rally on, for now. Credit Markets HYG has finally overcome the Sep highs, but its vulnerability at current levels is best viewed from the point of view of LQD underperformance. Investment grade corporate bonds could have been trading higher compared to the progress made by TLT. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking up, and so are miners – the upswing isn‘t overheated one bit, and can go on as we keep consolidating with an increasingly bullish bias. Crude Oil Crude oil once again extended gains, and even if oil stocks are a little lagging, the medium-term bullish bias in black gold remains. The path of least resistance is once again up. Copper Copper at least closed unchanged – the fresh steep rally indeed seems more than quite a few weeks ahead. But the table for further gains is set. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering the final trading week of 2021 in good shape. The rising tide of liquidity is still lifting all boats in a rather orderly way. Summary Thursday brought a proper finish to the Christmas week, and we‘re not staring at a disastrous finish to 2021 across the board. Short-term extended, but overall very positive bond market performance is aligned, and we can look for positive entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike. Shrinking global liquidity, no infrastructure bill, and consolidating dollar complete the backdrop of challenges that would make themselves heard well before Q2 2022 arrives. I hope you had Merry Christmas once again, and will also enjoy the relatively smooth ride while it lasts – 2022 will be still a good year, but with its fair share of corrections. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Still More to Come

Still More to Come

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.12.2021 15:34
S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. As I told you yesterday about volatility: (…) The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. We got the lower values, and today is shaping up to look likewise constructively for the bulls across both paper and real assets. Yesterday‘s dollar decline has helped as much as well bid bonds. Inflation expectations aren‘t yet doubting the Fed, there is no more compressing the yield curve at the moment, so it‘s all quiet on the central bank front. That‘s good, the Santa rally can go on unimpeded. Precious metals are peeking higher in what looks to be adjustment to the lower yields and dollar, and commodities upswing remains driven by energy, base metals and agrifoods. Cryptos hesitation may hint at slimmer gains today than was the case yesterday when instead of a brief consolidation, we were treated to improving returns. Merry Christmas if you‘re celebrating – and if not, happy holidays spent with your closest ones. Let the festive season and message of the Prince of Peace permeate our hearts and inspire the best in mankind. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rally goes on, and the 4,720s are again approaching. Market breadth isn‘t miserable in the least, and the riskier end of the bond spectrum looks positive even if larger time frame worries haven‘t gone away. Classic Santa Claus rally. Credit Markets HYG keeps jumping higher – the risk-on sentiment is winning this week. A bit more strength from LQD would be welcome, but isn‘t an obstacle to further stock market gains. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing indeed weren‘t to be taken at all seriously – solid gains across precious metals followed. I‘m expecting a not too rickety ride ahead as the metals keep appreciating at relatively slow pace. Crude Oil Crude oil extended gains, and even if oil stocks paused, downswing in black gold isn‘t looming. Importantly, the $72 area has been overcome – the bulls should be able to hold ground gained. Copper Copper keeps tracking the broader commodities rally, and isn‘t outperforming yet. The red metal‘s long consolidation goes on, and a breakout attempt on par with early Oct seems to be a question of quite a few weeks (not days) ahead. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating Tuesday‘s gains – the performance is neither disappointing nor stellar. Both cryptos don‘t look to be in the mood for a break below Dec lows. Summary If not yesterday, then probably today we‘ll get a little consolidation of prior two day‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains (copper says) – the positive seasonality hasn‘t spoken its last word. HYG posture has significantly improved, and that bodes well for short-term gains still ahead before we dive into market circumstances turning increasingly volatile towards the end of Q1 2022. For now, let‘s keep celebrating – Merry Christmas once again – and enjoying the relatively smooth ride. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
When All Is Said and Done

When All Is Said and Done

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.12.2021 15:56
S&P 500 duly rallied on broad strength, and credit markets performance bodes well for all risk-on assets. Now a little consolidation after yesterday‘s steep gains is ahead, but I don‘t see it as derailing future gains. The stock bull run isn‘t over, and doesn‘t need the infrastructure bill for its further advance, price action shows. The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. Commodities remain in rally mode after the recent correction, and crude oil sending a bullish message (and not one of fear) is a welcome sign. The same goes for copper moving in sync with the rest of the commodities – and that has positive implications for silver too. Precious metals though still remain a patience trade, where the risks of being out of the markets outweight those of being in – it‘s a bet on the Fed making a wrong tapering / tightening move – with the market figuring out so beforehand. It sure would come as the compressing yield spreads reveal that is the greatest fear, but we aren‘t there yet. Finally, cryptos cautious mood today illustrates the certainly less exciting session just ahead than was the case yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 has woken up, and indeed surpassed the 50-day moving average. The lower volume isn‘t an issue, but a little consolidation is ahead today – not a steep rally continuation. Credit Markets HYG jumped higher in a giant risk-on nod that is further confirmed by the quality bonds performance. Again, I‘m looking for a little consolidation here today as well. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing isn‘t to be taken at all seriously – I‘m looking for more gains in both the yellow and white metals, at their own and relatively slow pace. The countdown to Fed policy mistake and inflation returning to the limelight, is on. Crude Oil Crude oil scored a nice upswing, oil stocks confirmed as well the return of strength into the stock market, and both black gold and S&P 500 can keep rising together over the next days. Chances are the $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week. Copper Copper keeps agreeing with the risk-on turn, and is certainly primed to go much higher over the nearest weeks and months. Similarly to uranium, I remain bullish on the sector, especially since copper, silver, nickel and lithium are all green economy preconditions. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum time to consolidate yesterday‘s gains, is here – and I‘m not looking for a bullish picture based on Ethereum performance. Sideways to a little down, that‘s the most likely outcome before the bulls move again. Summary Consolidation of yesterday‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains is ahead for today, but the Santa Claus rally is by no means over. Even if oil and cryptos hesitate a little, the constructive message from bonds and copper is overpowering that in my view. As explained in detail within the opening part of today‘s analysis, the bulls have to odds to keep moving – and will likely take advantage thereof before the year is over. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Santa Rally Time

Santa Rally Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 21.12.2021 16:05
S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook: (…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... For now, the year end squaring the books trading can go on, and positive Santa Claus seasonality can make itself heard still. The crypto turn that I had been looking for on the weekend, is happening with strength today. Likewise the oil and copper recovery spilling over into silver, and the reasonably good performance returning to many value stocks too. Very constructive action. In short, the bulls have a good rebound opportunity into Christmas. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is waking up, and odds are the move would bring it back above the 50-day moving average. Looking at the volume, it‘s as if fresh sellers were nowhere to be found. Credit Markets HYG made an attempt to come back, and comparing it to the quality end of the bond spectrum results in a good impression – one of risk-on return approaching. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswing isn‘t to be taken too seriously – odds are strong that gold and silver would ride the risk-on return with gains added. It‘s about liquidity not being withdrawn by the market players. Crude Oil Crude oil recoved from the omicron uncertainty – to a good degree, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. The $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week, if nothing too surprising happens. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum, driven not only by positive fundamentals and Chile elections. The low volume indeed hinted at little willingness to sell – so, let‘s look for a good attempt to rise next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness is being decisively rejected, mirroring commodities – the decline indeed hasn‘t been in the disastrous category. The bulls clearly want to move. Summary S&P 500 and oil are rebounding from the omicron response pinch – and it‘s good we see cryptos doing the same. Corona wildcard has calmed down a little, and market breadth is making baby steps to improve. In this environment, high beta assets look poised to erase prior setbacks a little faster today, and can keep those gains unless a fresh bad headline strikes. One more tailwind – at least when it comes to real assets, for sure – is inflation coming back to the spotlight, which is what we‘ll have to wait for some more time still. But it‘ll happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Dollar‘s Warning Signal

Dollar‘s Warning Signal

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 20.12.2021 15:57
S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... Still, equities are poised to extend gains in 2022, and I‘m looking for a volatile but positive year. 5,200 in Dec 2022 isn‘t out of the question – with large cap tech, financials and energy doing particularly fine. Real rates would remain negative, and precious metals would love the Fed slamming on the tightening breaks, and bringing back the punch bowl somewhat. If you look at the flattening yield curve, it‘s clear evidence of market fears (I call that certainty as that‘s what they excel at – the 1995 soft landing was a notable exception) of the Fed overdoing the tapering & rate hikes. Given all the inflation still ahead, and the expected fiscal-monetary policies working against each other (yes, more handouts), commodities would have another great year. So much for the big picture 2022 predictions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 on the defensive, but the bullish case isn‘t lost. Some sideways trading of today‘s volatility is likely to preceed the upswing – we aren‘t rolling over to a 5-10% correction now. Credit Markets HYG retreat could have been a lot worse, and it‘s a good sign bonds aren‘t panicking. Just the junk ones would need to outperform the quality ones to drive a good stock market day. For now, bonds remains on guard. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals decided to make a measured upswing – this isn‘t a real reversal. Pressure to go higher is building up, and rates rising a little before the Fed moves, won‘t cut it. When liquidity conditions and corona fears ease a little, look for a much steeper upswing. Crude Oil Crude oil is trapped in the omicron uncertainty – quite resilient, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. Waiting for some fears to be removed before the fundamentals sink in again. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum – it certainly isn‘t disappointing. The low volume hints at little willingness to sell – an attempt to spike shouldn‘t be surprising next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness today is there, mirroring commodities – but the decline isn‘t in the disastrous category. Wait and see with a whiff of preliminary caution – that‘s all. Summary S&P 500 and oil are feeling the omicron response pinch – the worries boosted by Netherlands lockdown Sunday. Corona remains the wildcard, and markets are ignoring its relatively mild symptoms while focusing on case count. Tech is likely to do better than most of value while yields aren‘t pressured to rise fast. For a moment, inflation is receding from the spotlight, but I‘m looking for it to come back. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Fading the Rally

Fading the Rally

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.12.2021 15:44
S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate. I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday: (…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course. Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board. The reason I quoted the above copper part, is the importance of its yesterday‘s move – not too hot, not too cold in pursuing the broader commodities. Keeping above $4.28 with ease today, would be an important signal that the bears aren‘t able to step in convincingly, including in stocks. Oil would sort itself out above $71 while gold and silver would extend their preceding gains today. All in all, stocks would join early next week, and apart from bonds not going more risk-off, Ethereum outperformance would be another confirmation of a broader risk-on upswing to happen. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 downside reversal isn‘t to be trusted on a medium-term basis – but the downswing hasn‘t run its course, looking at volume. Good Nasdaq showing is sorely missing. Credit Markets HYG retreat while the quality debt instruments stayed more or less flat, is concerning for today – and for Monday, should we get follow through in bonds later on. Given the volume comparison, it‘s not certain in the least, which would set up conditions for a broader rally early next week. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside is clearly over, and a fresh upswing well underway. Correction in equities is marginally helping, and the reaction of Fed‘s underwhelming move with more inflation news, would be the juiciest catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is building up the springboard once again – the current consolidation including in oil stocks, would be resolved to the upside next week. We haven‘t seen a genuine trend change in Nov. Copper Key vote of confidence has come from copper – more willing participation from the red metal is called for next (as a minimum, not losing momentum vs. CRB Index). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t kept Wednesday‘s gains, and could very well provide an early sign of buying appetite more broadly returning. Summary Bonds remain in wait and see mode, and aren‘t as bearishly positioned as stocks at the moment. Neither are precious metals or commodities, raising the odds of a bullish resolution to the S&P 500 rally that‘s been faded. The usual constellation is what‘s required – recovering bonds taking the pressure off tech, mainly. Ideally accompanied by solid HYG outperformance, value rising, copper extending gains, and Ethereum doing better than Bitcoin. Tall order, especially for today – but nothing unsurmountable for say Monday-Tuesday as argued for in detail in today‘s report. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Great Santa Rally

Great Santa Rally

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.12.2021 15:40
S&P 500 with pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.Yesterday‘s expectations panned out to the letter:(…) Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt.I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate).Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 reversal is to be trusted, and the advance was very solidly taken part in. With not too much willing sellers, the advance will likely moderate today, but still continue. The bull hasn‘t topped, has been my thesis for weeks.Credit MarketsHYG celebrations are ushering in the next risk-on phase – credit markets are confirming. The too hawkish Fed worry is in the rear view mirror, and many assets can run once again, the time is still right.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downside was indeed limited, and the solid upswing I called for, materialized. Now, let‘s wait for the reaction of this catalyst with more inflation, for the juiciest results...Crude OilCrude oil is once again readying the upswing – the conditions are in place for $72 to give in shortly. Similarly, oil stocks haven‘t peaked, and are merely consolidating.CopperKey vote of confidence is coming today from copper – the red metal would very willingly participate in a fresh commodities upswing. It‘s been ushered in already, actually.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum look to have found the bottom as well – what kind of corrective pullback would we get? I‘m not looking for one overly deep and testing yesterday‘s lows.SummaryBears have thrown in the towel, and rightfully so – another instance of the Fed crushing the puts. Being between a rock and a hard place, with midterms approaching, infrastructure bill birthing troubles, the central bank‘s room to act isn‘t really too large. FOMC has met market expectations, and still remained behind the curve on inflation. On top, I‘m looking for them to have to reverse course during 2022 – I‘ve argued the case macroeconomically in the opening part of today‘s report. Back to the inflation trades – long live real assets and the not yet having topped S&P 500 (don‘t look at me, Russell 2000)!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Tough Choices Ahead

Tough Choices Ahead

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.12.2021 15:51
S&P 500 declined on poor PPI data, with financials virtually the only sector closing in the black. Rising yields and risk-off credit markets, that‘s the answer – markets are afraid of a more hawkish Fed than what they expect already. While the central bank will strive to project a decisive image, I‘m looking for enough leeway to be left in, and packaged in incoming data flexibility and overall uncertainty. Good for them that the fresh spending initiative hasn‘t yet passed. Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt. I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate). As I wrote in yesterday‘s summary: (…) Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 had a weak day, but the dip was being bought – there is fledgling accumulation regardless of deteriorating internals, and tech selloff continuing. Credit Markets HYG even staged a late day rally – bonds are in a less panicky mood, not anticipating overly hawkish Fed message. And that‘s good for the markets that sold off a bit too much. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside appears limited here, and today‘s premarket downswing has been largely erased already. Much catching up to do on the upside, just waiting for the catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is on the defensive now – the weak session yesterday didn‘t convince me. I‘m though still looking for higher prices even as today‘s premarket took black gold below $70. Still not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper Copper upswing didn‘t materialize, and worries about the economic outlook keep growing. The sideways trend keeps holding for now though, still. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, but the bottom (at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH) might not be in just yet. Cryptos remain in wait and see mode. Summary Bears aren‘t piling in before today‘s FOMC – the Fed‘s moves will though likely be interpreted as not overly hawkish. Given more incoming signs of slowing economy, the window of opportunity to tighten, is pretty narrow anyway. Why take too serious a chance? Yes, I‘m looking for the weakness in real assets to turn out temporary, and for stocks not to be broken by inflation just yet – as argued for in the opening part of today‘s analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Another Inflation Twist

Another Inflation Twist

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.12.2021 15:45
S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday. The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much. For now, there‘s no evidence of the latter, of serious intentions to force that outcome. Lip service (intention to act and keep reassessing along the way) would paid to the inflation threat tomorrow, harsh words delivered, and the question is when would the markets see through that, and through the necessity to bring the punch bowl back a few short months down the road. As stated yesterday: (…) Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 ran into headwinds, and fresh ATHs will really take a while to happen, but we‘re likely to get there still. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t have a really bad day – just a cautious one. Interestingly, lower yields didn‘t help tech, and that means a sectoral rebalancing in favor of value is coming, and that the current bond market strength will be sold into. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals held up fine yesterday, but some weakness into tomorrow shouldn‘t be surprising. I look for it to turn out only temporary, and not as a start of a serious downswing. Crude Oil Crude oil continues struggling at $72, but the downside looks limited – I‘m not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper In spite of the red candle(s), copper looks to be stopping hesitating, and is readying an upswing. I look for broader participation in it, and that includes commodities and silver. The run up to tomorrow‘s announcement would be telling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, and the bulls are meekly responding today. I don‘t think the bottom is in at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH. Summary Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
On a Knife-Edge

On a Knife-Edge

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 13.12.2021 15:04
S&P 500 recaptured 4,700s on little change in market breadth and ever so slowly coming back to life HYG. Credit markets made a risk-on move, but HYG isn‘t leading the charge on a medium-term basis in the least – it‘s improving, but the stiff headwinds in bonds are being felt. Given the CPI discussed at length on Friday, it‘s still a relative success. Make no mistake though, time is running short in this topping process, and trouble is going to strike earliest after the winter Olympics. Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 advance continues, and I‘m looking for ATHs to give in. It will take a while, but the balancing on a tightrope act continues. Credit Markets HYG strength didn‘t convince, but it didn‘t disappoint either – the constellation remains conducive to further stock market gains. So far and still conducive. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are stronger than miners, and the lackluster, sideways performance is likely to continue for now – fresh Fed policy mistake is awaited, and it‘s actually bullish that gold and silver aren‘t facing more trouble when the consensus expectation is faster taper. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing is still struggligh at $72, and remains favored to go higher with passage of time as excess production capacity keeps shrinking while demand isn‘t being hit (no, the world isn‘t going the lockdowns route this time). Copper High time copper stopped hesitating, for its sideways trading is sending a signal about future GDP growth. The jury is still out in the red metal‘s long basing pattern – a battle of positive fundamentals against shrinking liquidity and possibly slowing growth. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, and I suspect at least a test of Friday‘s lows is coming. I don‘t see too many signs of exuberance returning right away as Ethereum hasn‘t yet started to outperform. Summary S&P 500 bulls continue climbing a wall of worry even if credit markets don‘t confirm entirely. Risk-on and real assets rally is likely to continue, and the road would be getting bumpier over time. The Fed won‘t overcome market expectations, and the last week of Nov (first week of balance sheet contraction) pace wouldn‘t be consistently beaten without consequences down the road. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Catching More Than a Decent Bid

Catching More Than a Decent Bid

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.12.2021 15:48
S&P 500 predictably relented, but the resilience of value provides a glimmer of hope. Quite a solid one as the HYG spurt to the downside didn‘t inspire a broader selloff, including in tech. Yesterday was your regular wait-and-see session of prepositioning to today‘s CPI data. This not exactly a leading indicator of inflation clearly hasn‘t peaked, and inflation around the world either. The difference between the U.S. with eurozone, and the rest of the world, is that many other central banks are already on a tightening path.I count on such a CPI reading that wouldn‘t cause a rush to the exit door and liquidation in fears of Fed going even more hawkish (in rhetoric, it must be said). My series of pre-CPI release tweets have worked out to the letter – and now, it‘s back to the inflation trades.I already told you in yesterday‘s report:(…) A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red.The pieces of the stock market and commodities rally continuation are in place, and the same goes for precious metals reversing the prior cautious stance. Even cryptos are warming up to the data release.Looking further ahead in time to 2022, I can‘t understate the bright prospects of agrifoods (DBA) – and it‘s in no way just about the turmoil in fertilizer land.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 downswing looks ready to be reversed soon – in spite of the drying up volume which often accompanies bull markets. The daily indicators remain positioned favorably to the bulls.Credit MarketsHYG weakness looks somewhat overdone to me – the prior upswing is still getting the benefit of my doubt. The coming sessions just shouldn‘t bring a steep HYG decline in my view.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, and I‘m looking for the hesitation to be reversed to the upside. Just see the tough headwinds in comparing silver being almost at its Sep lows while gold is trading much higher. Once the inflation narratives get a renewed boost, silver would play catch up.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, but I‘m looking at the next attempt at $72 to succeed, and for $74 to be broken to the upside later on.CopperCopper is still lukewarm, and waiting for the broader commodity fires to reignite. The red metal isn‘t in an anticipatory, frontrunning mood – its prolonged consolidation means though it‘s prefectly prepared to rise decisively again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are finding buying interest, but the Ethereum underperformance has me still cautious after taking sizable ETH profits off the table yesterday.SummaryS&P 500 rally is likely to continue today, and the same goes for risk-on and real assets. The Fed evidently won‘t be forced into a more hawkish position in Dec, and the markets are starting to celebrate. Silently celebrate as it‘s not about fireworks, but a reasonable and well bid advance across the board. I hope you‘re likewise positioned!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Frontrunning CPI

Frontrunning CPI

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.12.2021 15:50
S&P 500 rose as VIX retraced over half of its recent spike, but tech and value have a short-term tired look. Cyclicals turning down while utilities with staples barely budge in spite of a surge in yields? That looks really risk-off to me, and together with commodities and precious metals going nowhere, represents your usual setup before tomorrow‘s CPI announcement. So, count on some headwinds today.A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red. While I would prefer to see more copper strength for confirmation (almost as much as no question marks creeping into the crypto land), this is what we have – and it indicates that the path higher won‘t be steep. Neither in stocks, commodities or precious metals – as I wrote yesterday:(…) The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way.Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks ripe for a brief breather – the volume is drying up, and consolidation in the vicinity of ATHs shouldn‘t be unexpected.Credit MarketsHYG held up quite well on the day, but the stock market mood it translated into, was risk-off one as rising yields couldn‘t help cyclicals.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, positioned for the coming brief decline that has pretty good chances of being reversed right next. The countdown to higher prices and Fed mistake is firmly on, and the risks of being out of the market outweigh the patience now required.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, which I look to be resolved to the upside perhaps as early as tomorrow‘s regular session (I‘m not looking for CPI to send real assets down).CopperCopper is still quite lukewarm, and doesn‘t indicate a commodities surge right ahead. Some consolidation wouldn‘t be surprising now that half of the CRB Index downswing has been erased. Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum keep looking vulnerable – the yesterday discussed downswing possibility looks to be progressing, unfortunately for the bulls.SummaryS&P 500 is still likely to consolidate recent strong gain, and at the same time not to tank on tomorrow‘s inflation data. The (almost classical, cynics might say) anticipation is playing out in commodities and precious metals today, but I‘m looking for the downside to be reversed tomorrow as the yields vs. inflation expectations duo hint at. Fed fears this early in the tapering cycle will likely look to be a blip on the screen in the topping process hindsight.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
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Fireworks to Go On?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.12.2021 16:01
S&P 500 sharply extended gains, and credit markets indicate some continuation even if by pure inertia. A trend in place, stays in place until reversed – and yesterday‘s upswing was sufficiently supported by the credit markets. The late day retreat in HYG is an obvious warning of a pause possibly coming next, but not of a reversal – the improvements in market breadth speak for themselves. So, I‘m looking for a lean day today, and I‘m keenly watching bonds and cyclicals such as financials for further short-term direction clues. While yesterday‘s upswing was driven by tech, the daily rise in yields and inflation expectations (however modest) was balanced out by still more yield curve compression. The risk-on turn in credit markets isn‘t over, and the key question is whether HYG can extend gains or at least go only sideways for a while. Today‘s key premarket news propelling risk assets up, was about Pfizer extolling its three-dose alleged efficiency against Omicron – even though the news was sold into shortly thereafter, it has the power to buy more time and provide fuel for stocks and commodities. The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way. Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 gapped higher, and is once again approaching ATHs. Hold your horses though for it would take some time to get there. I would prefer to see broader participation within value, which isn‘t totally there at the moment. It‘s improving, but still. Credit Markets HYG upswing was considerably sold into, and that spells some consolidation ahead. The degree to which it spills over into stocks, remains to be seen. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still looking stable, and ever so slowly improving after the Fed hawkish turn hit. The central bank and real yields projections hold the key, but the countdown to higher prices is firmly on. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing indeed continued, and black gold looks set to consolidate gains unless value stocks spring some more to life later today. Anyway, the medium-term chart remains bullish. Copper Copper is another reason why I‘m not overly bullish for today – the red metal‘s base building looks to need a bit more time to play out. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still base building, and looking vulnerable. While a downswing isn‘t guaranteed, it can come and turn out to be sharp. Summary S&P 500 is likely to consolidate recent strong gain, not accelerating the surge today. The bulls within risk-on assets look to be slowly gaining the upper hand, and the opening part of today‘s analysis describes it‘s not a one-way street to fresh highs as the Fed has turned from a tailwind to a headwind. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Turning the Corner in Style

Turning the Corner in Style

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.12.2021 16:05
S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. Finally, we saw a truly risk-on positioning in the credit markets – and that won‘t be without (positive) consequences. Still, it pays to be ready for the adverse scenario that I‘ve described in yesterday‘s key analysis, in connection with which I have received an interesting question. It‘s essentially a request to dig in some more so that my thinking can‘t be interpreted as being on the verge of immediately flipping bearish: Q: Your analysis of today: "Downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction's low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals". I am not sure if I am interpreting this right (English is not my native language). Are you saying that the market might turn down spectacular, even for precious metals? A: it's specifically the market breadth for larger than 500 stock indices that tells me we possibly aren't out of the woods yet - no matter the technical improvements that I looked for us to get yesterday, and that are likely to continue thanks not only to solid HYG performance. What I'm saying is that unless there is broader participation in the unfolding S&P 500 rally (and in the rally of other indices), we're in danger of a more significant move to the downside than we saw already (those few percents down). You can also watch for the sensitivity to Fed pronouncements - on one hand, we have the taper, even accelerated one on the table, yet through Nov, total assets grew by practically $100bn, and it was only the 7-day period preceding Dec 01 that marked balance sheet contraction. This sensitivity to hawkish statements would show in downside hits to risk-on assets (cyclicals), and also in VIX spikes. There, my mid-session Friday call made on Twitter for VIX to better reverse from its highs for Friday's close, came true. So, should a sharper decline happen (as said, the risks thereof haven't disappeared), it would (at least initially) influence precious metals too, and not remain limited to stocks and commodities. Having answered, let‘s move on. I like the strength returning to energy – both oil and natural gas as I tweeted yesterday. While financials are taking their time, and consumer discretionaries lagged hugely on a daily basis behind staples, I look for more strength to return to cyclicals at expense of interest rate sensitive sectors (that includes utilities also). Rising yields (however slowly) would underpin commodities, and it‘s showing already. Precious metals continue needing the newfound Fed hawkishness image to start fracturing, or causing inordinate level of trouble in the real economy. The latter would take time as manufacturing is pretty much firing on all cylinders, which is why I‘m not looking for overly sharp gold and silver gains very soon. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears were more than a bit tired, and Friday‘s candle being unable to break below preceding day‘s lows while not too much stood in the way, was telling. What can‘t go down, would sooner or later go up. Credit Markets HYG upswing is a pleasant sight for the bulls – half of the prior decline has already been erased. Quite some more still needs to happen, and the lack of volume yesterday is a sign that patience could very well be required (let‘s temper our expectations while still being positioned bullishly). Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still looking stable, and are waiting for the Fed perceptions to fade a little. CPI inflation hasn‘t peaked neither in the U.S. nor around the world (hello, Europe), neither have energy prices or yields – so, get ready for the upswing to continue at its own pace. Crude Oil Crude oil confirmed the bullish turn, and the modest volume isn‘t an issue for it indicates lack of sellers willing to step in. Plenty of positioning anticipating the upswing happened in the days before, I think. Copper Copper prices are taking the turn alongside the CRB Index – it‘s starting to lean as much as APT in the direction of no economy choking response to Omicron that would necessitate further GDP downgrades. I‘m looking for the red metal to continue gradually favoring the bulls even more. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum attempt base building, but both cryptos (Bitcoin somewhat more) remain vulnerable. There are a few good explanations for that, and the most credible ones in my view revolve around stablecoins backing. Summary S&P 500 reversal higher is looking increasingly promising, and the signs range from sharply broadening market breadth to encouraging HYG performance. Commodities aren‘t being left in the cold, and I‘m looking for their own reversal to gradually spill over into precious metals – depending upon the evolving Fed perceptions, of course. The odds of us having seen the worst in this correction have considerably improved, and while positioned appropriately, I‘m not yet sounding the analytical all clear of blue skies ahead. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Topping Process Roadmap

Topping Process Roadmap

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.12.2021 15:43
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.In spite of decreasing yields, the dollar continues acting on the bullish argument introduced 2 weeks ago. Seeing antidollar plays struggle (part of which is the function of inflation expectations drifting lower on the Fed‘s turn – let‘s see when the central bank breaks something, which is a story for another day), is truly a warning of downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction‘s low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals. In a series of two tweets yesterday, the warning is in regardless of a smooth Monday ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears are looking a bit tired here, and the room for an upswing is getting evident. The surge late on Friday concerned both tech and value, thankfully – overall, the market breadth isn‘t though much encouraging.Credit MarketsHYG did successfully defend gained ground, and strength appears very slowly returning – the gains have to continue to sound the all clear, for considerably longer. As said on Friday, the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking fairly stable at the moment – not ready to decline, and still taking time to rebound. The accelerated taper idea didn‘t take them to the cleaners – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets really close to choking off growth.Crude OilCrude oil could keep the intraday gains, but appears base building here – similarly to natgas, this is a medium-term buying opportunity as prices would inevitably recover.CopperCopper prices reflect the combined Fed and (to a lesser degree) Omicron uncertainty – it‘s casting a verdict about upcoming real economy growth, and the red metal is still looking undecided, and merely gently leaning towards the bulls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum was reserved for the weekend, and the bleeding hasn‘t stopped so far.SummaryS&P 500 looks to have reached the low, but the jury remains out as to whether that‘s THE low. I highly recommend reading today‘s analysis for it lays out the key metrics to watch in its opening part. The nearest days and weeks will be of crucial importance in determining whether the worst in the stock market and commodities correction is behind us, or whether we still have some more to go.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint

Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.12.2021 15:57
S&P 500 sharply rebounded, and signs are it has legs. My key risk-on indicator to watch yesterday, HYG, turned up really strongly. No problem that the dollar didn‘t decline, it‘s enough that financials and energy caught some breath. We‘re turning to risk-on as Omicron didn‘t cause the sky to fall. What a relief! Seriously, it doesn‘t look that hard lockdowns would be employed, which means the market bulls can probe to go higher again. What I told you on Wednesday already in the title It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron, today‘s non-farm payrolls illustrate. Such was the game plan before the data release, and this refrain of bad is the new good, is what followed. The Fed is desperately behind the curve in taming inflation, and its late acknowledgment thereof, doesn‘t change the bleak prospects of tapering (let alone accelerated one) into a sputtering economy. What we‘re experiencing currently in the stock market, is a mere preview of trouble to strike in 2022. We‘re in the topping process, and HYG holds the key as stated yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 returned above the 50-day moving average, the volume wasn‘t suspicious – the bulls have regained the benefit of the doubt, and need to extend gains convincingly and sectorally broadly next. Credit Markets HYG successfully defending gained ground, would be a key signal of strength returning to risk-on assets and lifting up S&P 500. There is still much to go – remember that the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness looks deceptive and prone to reversal to me – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets doubted with bets placed against its narratives. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is getting slowly reversed, about to. Beaten down the most lately, black gold is readying an upside surprise. Copper Copper is turning higher, taking time, but turning up – it‘s positive, but still more of paring back recent setback than leading higher. I‘m reasonably optimistic, and acknowledge much time is needed to reach fresh highs. Bitcoin and Ethereum The bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t get too far – crypto consolidation goes on, no need to panic or get excited yet. Summary S&P 500 is in a recovery mode, and the bulls look ready to prove themselves. The keenly watched HYG close presaged the odds broadly tipping the risk-on way, just as much as cyclicals did. It‘s a good omen that commodities are reacting – not too hot, not too cold – with precious metals in tow. In tow, as the Fed isn‘t yet being doubted – the NFPs are a first swallow of its inability to carry out tapering plans till the (accelerated or not) end. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. The