Korbinian Koller

Korbinian Koller

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Botcoin May Continue Its Upward Movement This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Charts - Daily, Monthly, BTC/GOLD - 29/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.03.2022 11:35
Bitcoin wins the race   While Russia accepts hard currencies like gold, a move like this shows that the efficient attributes of bitcoin come to the forefront in times of crisis and are accepted for large business transactions between nations. Bitcoin, daily chart, price breakout: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 29th, 2022. Shortly after, president Putin confirmed this new way of doing business. In addition, China and Russia agreed to a thirty-year contract in the gas sector, transacted in Euros. We can see that we find ourselves in times of currency warfare and that it is essential to pay close attention to where and in what form we store our values. The daily chart above reflects this recent news in a price advance of bitcoin from US$37,567 to US$47,701. A 28% advance in just two weeks. Bitcoin broke through the sideways range, and this week shall show whether this breakout will be a successful one or not. In this case, the bulls have their odds much in favor over the bears.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, price left the station: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2022. We have now left the entry zone (green box) compared to last week’s chart book and the published weekly chart. While the crowd now chases a trade, struggling with the typical inefficiencies of volatility breakouts (bad fills, slippage, being late), we are established in our positioning with the sum of 9 accumulated runners. The runners being the last 25% of each initial position. A fully de-risked or more precisely no-risk venture (see quad exit)! Looking at the weekly chart, we find the resistance distribution zones at around US$49,650 and US$52,430. We place additional entries if the price returns to the entry box top. Bitcoin, monthly chart, if March closes strong: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 28th, 2022. The price has entered the confirmed buy zone from a monthly perspective. The dual chart shows the progression from last week’s anticipation to this week’s chart book release. Should prices within this week stay within the green box, all-time frames are in alignment. A picture of a confirmed bullish bitcoin trend. It is a rare occurrence and confirmation for larger time frame traders and a call to look for low-risk entries, if no sufficient exposure is at play yet. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin wins the race: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 28th, 2022. Another split-screen view of a chart (a daily chart of the bitcoin/gold ratio) shows the progression of last week’s chart book publication and the situation right now. We had a triangle breakout last week and a substantial advance since then. The suggested rotation out of gold and into bitcoin was/is a successful one. The overall move was 30% in just two weeks. One can use this relationship as well to indicate bitcoins’ recent gain in strength and direction. Bitcoin wins the race: Change is never accepted lightly. We typically resist change and prefer an existing state of affairs as human beings. Nevertheless, we find ourselves in less than average circumstances with a worldwide pandemic, a never-ending war, and a general divide in opinions. Russia’s recent move towards approval of bitcoin shows that when the rubber meets the road, what works and is practical in times of crisis and need, wins the race. While governments around the globe feverishly try to get their electronic payment systems developed, bitcoin already finds its use spreading, and successfully so.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 29th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Botcoin May Continue Its Upward Movement This Week

March 22nd, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.03.2022 19:44
Bitcoin´s time to go   Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth.  Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from.  The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting.  Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly.     Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Botcoin May Continue Its Upward Movement This Week

Bitcoin Price Charts: BTC/XAUUSD And BTCUSDT - 15/03/22

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.03.2022 14:39
Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

XAUUSD Chart And Bitcoin Charts - BTC/USDT And Bitcoin Vs Gold Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.03.2022 10:21
Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Bitcoin (BTC) To US Dollar (USD) And BTCUSD/XAUUSD Shown In The Charts

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.03.2022 12:27
Bitcoin, buy the news   With news, volatility is typically increasing, and a larger volume of transactions is at play. For amateurs, data evaluation in a turmoiled market environment generally results in procrastination of execution, meaning no trading or chasing trades. Professionals find necessary liquidity to exit a trade or use volatility to fade moves on less risk for entries. Last week’s invasion of Ukraine was no different. Only those prepared with a plan were able to position themselves in bitcoin. Bitcoin, daily chart, the giveaway: Crypto markets, daily charts as of February 28th, 2022. A giveaway was a widespread larger supply zone throughout the crypto sector (green horizontal lines on the daily charts above), and preset buy entries in the crypto space were getting triggered. Inter-market relationships stack the odds of placing a successful trade.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, entry target zone within reach: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 28th, 2022. With our entry target range nearly reached (see our previous chart book release), we were ready to act, knowing a possible larger time frame tuning point was a possibility. You might argue that the price has not penetrated the entry zone. Still, at a closer look, you will identify that due to exuberant volume on the surprise news day, the supply zone values had changed to provide significant support right at the rim of our initially planned zone. Charts need to be consistently updated to stay accurate! Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, weekly chart, another edge stacked: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. Precisely on the day in question, we also got a hedge rotational “buy signal” for bitcoin versus gold on the weekly chart. Consequently, this signal provided another inter-market relationship edge that supported our decision-making for aggressive entry. What we can see on the chart above that compares bitcoin with gold is that since institutional money has become a massive part of bitcoin holdings, these more significant funds rotate their money in and out between gold and bitcoin. Following the yellow line, one can see prices being high to buy bitcoin with gold at double top and acquiring bitcoin at a double bottom is a way to take advantage of cheaper bitcoin prices in relationship to gold. For us, a good reason to assume that gold holders might switch to bitcoin for the next foreseeable timeframe, to hedge their wealth preservation portfolios. Bitcoin, daily chart, profits booked and room to go: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. The weekly chart above shows four more reloads within the last five days. All trades have been risk mitigated with our quad exit strategy. Consequently, the remaining position was market money at no risk to us. We posted daily calls to prepare interested parties for possible reentries. Prices have already advanced by nearly 30% from the lows. This preparedness and merely following rules allow ending up being positioned and not dependent on whether a turning point matures. Even in a negative outcome, profits have been made. With a bit of luck, these remainder positions can go a long way and provide substantial additional profits. In addition, one is positioned early before a trend is even established. Bitcoin, buy the news: We must confront opinion-forming debates led by ego (the need to be right). We use reconditioning behavior to achieve best results. The goal in mind is to “erase” intuitive responses and an execution time delay leading to sub-par entry timing. Consequently, consistent extracting of profits from the market is possible. At Midas Touch, we have made it our business to share our entry and exit timing and their underlying principles in our free Telegram channel to empower our clients and followers to become successful self-directed investors.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Crypto Charts - BTC Monthly, Weekly, Daily Chart

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.02.2022 09:33
Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

February 8th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.02.2022 20:48
Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Bitcoin, Fed, Stocks and Bonds

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.02.2022 13:18
Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

Crypto Prices Reviewed - 25.01.2022 - by Korbinian Koller

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.01.2022 11:02
Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
January 18th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

January 18th, 2022, Crypto Chartbook

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 19.01.2022 15:22
Bitcoin´s New Year’s resolution BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, trending up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of January 18th, 2022. Where often the rubber meets the road is accountability. Yes, you technically could trade off a screen the size of your phone and do so in your underwear from home. That doesn’t mean this will lead to profits. More likely, success will come if you tell your spouse that you will only trade for real money once a significant sample size of paper trading shows consistent returns on your well-defined statistical edge. Holding yourself accountable to a person close to you is critical. This way, you won’t slack on facing your shortcomings. There is a thin line between gambling and being a victim of nourishing scarcity emotions and having a well-defined trading system executed with discipline to extract profits from the markets over larger sample sizes consistently. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has been trending up over the last five years. As much as last year’s final quarter was profit-taking after all-time new highs, the price seems to stabilize near the regression channel midline (blue line), which typically acts as support. We find these accentuated retracements typical for bitcoin and are looking for a possible turning point towards a new leg up in the larger time frames. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoins New Year’s resolution: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 18th, 2022. Patience should be a key element in any such system. Patience to wait for the good trades that have the potential to provide upside moves three to five times greater than the necessary risk taken to try out the trade. What also needs to be thoroughly checked is not to be underfunded and that there is no pressure to make a living off trading right away. If these rules are undervalued, ruin is typical since trading psychology has particular requirements to execute a profitable methodology appropriately. Therefore, this includes that the money at stake lost cannot influence a drastic change in living. When undertaking a venture like this, it is advisable to not increase pressure by spreading the word to friends and colleagues since typical learning curve time frames are somewhere between 3 to 7 years, and the additional stress to defend one’s venture is not helpful. This behavior also supports the necessary feature later as a trader to be highly flexible in changing one’s mind about the market’s price direction. Something outsiders might find foolish. Now zooming into a lower time frame, the weekly chart shows a similar picture of opportunity. Prices are trading at the mean. A mathematical “neutral zone.” As the white ellipse in the past shows, for bitcoin, this is a support zone of prices where bitcoin turned after a temporary sideways trading period. Similar trading behavior is unfolding right now, supporting our bullish tone. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, possible entry zone: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 18th, 2022. If you are already a consistently winning trader, setting the tally to zero at the beginning of the year like this can be very helpful. You start fresh. Consequently, you trade a bit smaller and are very focused and diligent in building a new winnings nest egg that provides for free market play at the beginning of the year. Starting the beginning of the new year supports confidence that no matter what might be faced, if somewhere an exchange is open, you can make a living even after hardships and, as such, refreshes the confidence needed for proper execution throughout the year. Not resting on one’s laurels this way keeps trading exciting and the moral up to par towards the required skill set. The above daily chart tries to identify low-risk entry zones with our typical top-down approach, now zooming even closer. We aim further to stack the odds for a possible low-risk entry spot.After four swing legs down, prices are trading in a congestion zone (green square). We find this an area worthwhile to be on the lookout for a possible low-risk entry. This daily time frame entry could mature to a higher time frame turning point. Our quad exit strategy can capture profits for a more significant developing trend. Bitcoins New Year’s resolution: Trading needs to be treated like a business. A high percentage of businesses fail due to a lack of a business plan. In trading, a clear set of rules is even more critical due to the counterintuitive nature of the markets. In short, one can’t shoot from the hip in this profession. You get nowhere with your gut feeling. The biggest obstacle in trading is that traders underestimate how long it takes before success settles in. Consequently, backup plans are an excellent way to extend one’s learning curve. We also find a great way to overcome obstacles and accept when things go wrong consistently that a new rule is possibly missing.  The business of trading has many components, and as such, it is helpful to seek the outside counsel of a professional when needed. You find good support through the learning process in our free telegram channel within a community of professionals and newbies alike who provide answers to your questions. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 18th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment

Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.12.2021 09:32
Typically, various time frames perform better or worse for a trader at different times due to cycle overlaps. Having multiple trades on simultaneously from different time frames is typically an excellent hedge. This way, one can catch the specific trading instruments’ various shorter and longer-term trends. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, patience pays: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 21st, 2021. Typical mistakes are either an early entry or a chased trade and getting out too early of a steady trend. These behaviors have to do with pleasure-seeking and pain avoidance motivation. With the chart above in mind, most pass if presented with an opportunity where rewards are paid out in ten years. Wealth preservation, which we are after, should have nothing else in mind—long-term protection with a low-risk profile and a solid performance. The chart presented above is our most conservative view of the future for bitcoin, both in price and time. Meaning, it would come as no surprise to us if much higher price levels are achieved in a much shorter period of time. Yet, we tend to estimate typically very conservative to keep emotions like greed in check. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 21st, 2021. The percentage gain numbers of the previous chart assume the worst possible purchase price, which is an all-time high. If we purchase bitcoin right now or prices below recent trading prices, these numbers already drastically change. Meaning, while our pain-avoiding emotional motivators direct us in declining markets to sell, it is principle-based if you have statistically high probability models over the long term to instead think about purchasing bitcoin. As indicated in the weekly chart above, we see a window of opportunity for entries based on our quarterly chart exit time horizon. Scenario A, the more aggressive position-taking, is in a process already at the release of this chart book. Nevertheless, there is a probability that prices could decline as far as US$40,000, and low-risk entry spots within the price decline to such lower levels would be as a scenario B welcome just as well. Should prices penetrate below the US$40,000 level, a regrouping would be required before new entries could be discussed. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Position building in motion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 21st, 2021. Assuming entries here in our entry zone between US$47,000 and US$40,000 and exits in our first chart of this chart book, a bitcoin investment next to be an insurance play against troubled fiat currencies could provide a profit near a thousand percent. The daily chart above has marked days and entry prices of three trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel in the last five days. We took partial profits based on our quad exit strategy within hours of entry. Consequently, eliminating the original stop risk of less than a percent to zero risk. With a risk-reward ratio of 1:1000, we find it reasonable to sit through a few years with the remainder position size for sizeable rewards. Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Some of the worst mistakes in history were made based on the shortsightedness not to think long term. As creative and inventive a species, we cannot help but follow emotions that often do not have our own best interest in mind. One such emotion is instant gratification. It seems almost a burden to wait for being rewarded patiently. Yet, it is this discipline one needs to be a successful trader. First, you need the patience to not always be too early with one’s entry in a trade not to catch a falling knife. Then you require the patience not to chase a trade if you missed it.  Instead, wait for a later chance to get another low-risk entry spot or to pass up on the trade altogether. And foremost, once finding yourself in a good trade, it is imperative to sit on your hands and let the trade mature to full profits. The higher the time frame of your play is, the harder this test of your patience becomes.Remedies are good planning, consistent reviewing of a plan, rigorously following it, and employing an exit strategy suitable to your psychology (see our quad exit strategy). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 21st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Creating silver wealth without fear

Creating silver wealth without fear

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.12.2021 09:32
Two weeks ago, we posted the following chart in our weekly silver chart book release, after representing a strong case for a bullish silver play: Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly chart from December 3rd, 2021: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We wrote at the time: “The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver. There is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September.” Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, creating silver wealth without fear: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2021. We were spot on anticipating how the market would unfold in the future. Furthermore, we followed the principles of consistent analysis of our surroundings, the market, and ourselves. We advanced confidently in the direction of likely probabilities and tried to keep doubt to a minimum. Hourly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, well positioned: Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of December 18th, 2021. This sequence allowed for a low-risk entry on December 15th, 2021 right at the lows. The entry-level of US$21.47 already allowed for a 2.75% partial profit-taking on half of our position size at US$22.06. As always, we use our low-risk quad exit strategy to reduce risk and, as such, fear of losing profits. Now we are well-positioned with the remainder of the position, and a stop raised to break even entry levels. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, worth the effort: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 18th, 2021. The monthly chart above shows our planned following two targets for this trade. With an entry at US$21.47 and an initial tight stop at US$21.22, our risk/reward-ratio towards our first profit-taking target was about 1:2.37. Now for the next target at US$27.35, it is 1:23, and for the final target at US$47.20, it is 1:103. In other words, with extensive planning and stacking of odds, we were able to identify a trade that had about a percent of risk at entry time. In addition, we quickly mitigated risk by early partial profit-taking. And yet, we still have a profit potential of the final 25% of position size, possibly maturing to a 120% profit. Taking only highly likely and highly profitable trades like these is also confidence-building and a fear eliminator. Creating silver wealth without fear: Michael Jordan’s achievement of playing in the present moment only is nothing short of the accomplishment of monks and so-called enlightened beings. It takes a long stretch of a career to achieve such a skill set. It illustrates that trading is more than just pushing a button or extracting a mathematical edge system. Trading is psychology and requires many skill sets combined to produce the necessary consistency to overcome the dilemma that you are only as good as your last action. Luck alone will get you nowhere in this game. It is not our intention to discourage you. Instead, it is quite the opposite. Often trading can be overwhelming and at times one can be down thinking: „Why can’t I do this, why did I betray my own rules again?” Trading is hard, it takes screen time and skill. Do not let fear and doubt dictate your actions. You can do this! Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 19th, 2021|Tags: bottoming pattern, Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, The bottom is in, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Three ways to buy bitcoin

Three ways to buy bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.12.2021 13:15
With more than a trillion-dollar market cap, bitcoin is now in an echelon where regulation would be fearful to intervene harshly, since a bitcoin crash would affect other markets. In a way, the last pillar is cemented for there to be little risk to think of a world without bitcoin. That being said, even if only minor, some bitcoin exposure is now widely accepted as a wise decision of portfolio management. We share three ways of purchase that we find conservative. We aim to demystify the saga of bitcoins acquisition risk due to its volatility. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, zooming out, away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Risk is related to size. Suppose you buy a small enough amount alongside your overall market exposure, small enough that you can afford assets even to go to zero, then the risk is minimized. Would it be nice to have picked up a few thousand bitcoins when it was available at five dollars or a few hundred at fifty, certainly! Nevertheless, thinking long term and with volatility now being much less, the more bitcoin had settled in and is more widely accepted, even buying here now at US$47,000 is just fine. What we find less attractive is not owning any. And after that initial purchase, to add at price dips in bitcoin to grow a position size over time would be a possible extension of such a strategy. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has always reached new all-time highs again, and there is no fundamental or technical evidence that this behavior should change. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, buy low and hold: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Another way to participate in the bitcoin market if you already have some exposure is buying in tiny increments when markets seem low. This means buying after one of bitcoin’s steep declines and add this way to your long-term exposure. The weekly chart above shows with a green box an approximated entry zone. We used ABC pattern recognition, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, action-reaction models, and inter-market relationships along with other tools to zoom into such a low-risk and high success probability zone. Once such a zone is established, we go a time frame lower. In this case, the daily time frame, to fine-tune entries. Therefore, it increases probabilities and reduce entry risk even further. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, low-risk entries with quad exit: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 14th, 2021. Our third option presented is a more active way in market participation. It is refined in its form to suit more experienced traders to soothe trading psychology. In addition, it keeps entry risk to a minimum and maximizes profits. We openly share the underlying principles in our free Telegram channel. Alongside, we post real-time entries and exits for educational purposes. This approach has a sophisticated exit strategy (quad exits). It allows for partial profit-taking and expansive position size building over time to maximize one’s bitcoin exposure without added risks. The daily chart above focuses on two supply zones (yellow horizontal lines). The zones got identified by volume profile analysis (green histogram to the right side of the chart). We want the price to build a double bottom price pattern at one of these levels to enter a long position. We have already retraced from recent all-time highs in a typical percentage fashion for bitcoins trading behavior. Consequently, a turning point here is highly likely. Three ways to buy bitcoin: Overwhelm often stems from a lack of choices. After reading this chart book, we hope that those readers who feel intimidated experience a sigh of relief. Like gold, bitcoin is a store of value. We find a good likelihood that bitcoin might surpass the ten trillion gold market cap. Consequently, your investment right now has a fair chance to grow by a factor of ten or more.  After acquiring bitcoin, you can store your purchase in a small cold wallet, the size of a USB stick. Tuck it away, just like you do your precious metal coins. Buying now for the long term is still stepping in front of most market players which have succumbed to their doubts and procrastination. Consequently, it allows for this investment to be early, anticipating a likely change of the future regarding payment methods and store of value vehicles. Therefore, an asset with significant growth potential (=attractive risk/reward-ratio). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|
Silver is moving up

Silver is moving up

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.12.2021 10:45
So, what are the facts: Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In 2020, silver broke a multiyear sideways range and moved strongly up. It has now consolidated for over a year in a sideways range again. This is a bullish setup! As much as emotions might be weary, from a probability perspective, a general rule is that the longer a congestion is from a time perspective, the more significant will be the subsequent breakout from that range. Statistical probabilities are also clearly pointing to the upside rather than returning into the prior range. Not to forget, buying near the lows of such a range box guarantees the lowest entry risk and highest risk/reward-ratio play to be taken for the long side, even if emotions might tell you otherwise. 2021 silver trades performance: 2021 silver trades performance. Another fact is that one does not need to know when and if a breakout is happening to extract money from the markets consistently. The above chart is this year’s silver trades that we posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The systematic approach focuses on low-risk entry points with a risk reduction method through our quad exit strategy. Sideways markets provide an income-producing aspect of one’s trading, and a possible breakout of a range would give a significant bonus. An approach like this keeps emotions in check since one’s labor gets rewarded and allows for significantly higher rewards once ranges do break. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, silver is moving up: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In short, while waiting is strenuous, and one might feel doubtful, from a probability perspective, silver is an even likelier success story now than it has been six months or a year ago. What should also not be underestimated is the fundamental situation of this wealth preservation play. The extensions of governments playing the inflation game to such length are like adding fuel to the silver play. Widespread problems that are the pillars to this insurance play have, if anything, increased. Consequently, supporting a good likelihood that silver prices go up. When? Well, that is hard to say since no one knows the future, but maybe this question gets proportionally in weight too much attention since insurance isn’t just bought for the next storm to come but in principle acquired to make one feel good and to protect one’s wealth long term. The quarterly chart above shows how silvers inherent volatility can sustain, in times of market turmoil, extended phases of extreme standard deviation levels. Price moves far away from the mean (red line). We are trading near the mean as of now, and the very right green line is a projection of a possible price move up.   S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, Quod erat demonstrandum: S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. Still, some doubt left? Have a look at the above S&P500 chart, representing the broad market. Does that look like a healthy chart? Baby boomers and general stock-market participants might be in for a rude awakening once they realize how little their fiat currency is still worth when they cash in those stock portfolio investments. Just compare your total living cost from 2020 with 2021. All positions from food to health insurance, from car gas to electricity bills. Calculate the percentage difference from those two numbers and add this percentage to the average acquisition cost of your physical silver, and you have the real value of your silver already now. How does homelessness double to a half million people per day sleeping roofless factor in? Does this chart represent great times when we face supply chain disruptions? Or is it all smoke and mirrors, and once the music stops, there will be countless chairs missing for everyone to sit down? Silver is moving up: The essential principle in play is that markets are counterintuitive. Meaning your feelings might have switched from enthusiasm to uncertainty, even frustration, but probability facts are in direct opposition to one’s feelings. This principle is the underlying reason why moves out of extended congestion zones can result in substantial moves. Once emotionally weak hands are washed out, these breakouts come from an emotional perspective surprising. Bears step aside and bulls chase prices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Bitcoin, going from strength to strength

Bitcoin, going from strength to strength

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.12.2021 14:07
Like a whale diving deep to gorge on krill to emerge even more empowered shortly after. When catching these cycles right, bitcoin is ever rewarding. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, up and up and up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2021. Typically, fortunes are slowly acquired and quickly destroyed, not so with bitcoin. Bitcoin’s up moves can be as dramatic as their declines. In addition, bitcoin seems bulletproof to fundamental attacks. With China’s ban on mining, its share of the global hash rate sank from 75% held in September 2019 to zero by now. Miners migrated to the US and had its 2019 4% hash rate rise to 35%. It is essential to remind oneself of facts like these, when emotions overcome one with doubt and confidence falters at these steep declines in bitcoin. At times when opportunity knocks and self-confidence is critical for accurate trade execution. The monthly chart above shows the roller coaster moves that can make even the stern trader doubtful, yet bitcoin rose closer to the sun after each cloud. We find six figure bitcoin prices to be likely within the next few months, as indicated in the very right green up arrow in the chart. Gold in Bitcoin, Daily Chart, measuring true value: Gold in Bitcoin, daily chart as of December 7th, 2021. Where we see bitcoin going from strength to strength, as well, is the relatively rare occurrence of fiat currencies being endangered by inflation to the level that we are right now. Fortunes can change hands quickly. Typically, procrastination is fueled by the belief of a rise in the cost of things. In reality, currency is less valuable. We, as such, encourage you not to measure everything in your country’s currency. We find measurements towards a gold price or a bitcoin price a more realistic view of price/value changes. The chart above shows how the relationship between gold and the bitcoin price changed over the short term, with bitcoins’ recent sharp decline.   BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, in the not to distant future: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2021. A six-sigma event risk in the overall market environment is always present. Such a market crash would temporarily drag bitcoin to lower prices and needs to be reflected in your money management. Other than that, we see prices right here as a good starting zone for the next push-up which should exceed all-time highs in the not-too-distant future, as portrayed in the above chart. Bitcoin, going from strength to strength: No matter what we tell ourselves, when prices decline, we feel fearful. It is always hard to step into such selling pressure for a low-risk entry spot based on the action/ reaction principle to be part of the next cycle up.  Moreover, practice and planning are required to be part of these upswings and to ride the wave. Our quad strategy aims to reduce initial risk quickly after an entry has been made. Last Friday’s entries near the lows of the day allowed for a more than ten percent profit-taking on half of the position size, a target we call “financing.” Unheard of in any other liquid, low-risk market. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 7th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Ready, set, silver, go

Ready, set, silver, go

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.12.2021 12:56
The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, overcoming adversity

Bitcoin, overcoming adversity

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.11.2021 10:47
Nevertheless, this might be over soon. Regulation might kill the majority of the expanded crypto world. Bitcoin might be banned, as it has been in the past in various countries. And yet, once fiat currency value implodes, bitcoin will be the last man standing. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, last weeks call on the nose: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. We posted the above weekly chart of bitcoin in last week’s chart book release. We anticipated a low-risk entry. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, as planned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 29th, 2021. Since then, prices have swiftly penetrated our entry zone. We caught two trades, a daily and a weekly time frame position. We posted these trades (entries and the partial exits), as usual, in real-time in our free Telegram channel.Furthermore, we employ a quad exit strategy that ensures instant risk elimination by quickly taking half of the position off. With entries of US$ 53,877 (daily timeframe trade) and US$ 54,000 (weekly timeframe trade), we were able, with first exits at US$ 54,591 and US$ 55,797, to not only eliminate risk but ensure profits on half of the positions of 1.33% and 3.33%. As well our next following targets have been reached! We took another 25% of position size out at US$ 55,811.6 and US$ 57,317.7, which booked us another 3.59% return on the daily position and 6.14% on the weekly position. The remaining 25% of position sizes on each trade we call runners. With stops set now at break-even entry levels, we can only produce additional winnings for each trade. Each trade had tight stops, assuring less than half a percent of risk per trade.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, modest odds for follow through: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 30th, 2021. The possible contrarian short signal on the monthly chart makes the weekly trades success probabilities for the runner smaller. Nevertheless, this quad exit approach allows for low-risk positioning versus endless mind chatter and debate since it is typical that different time frames show different long, short and sideways plays. Here, bitcoin again overcomes adversity. Typically, tight ranged instruments erase many trade opportunities for profit margins relating to commissions and risk to small. The earlier mentioned profit percent numbers are typical for bitcoins volatility and, as such, allow for risk reduction and short- to midterm profitability being more extensive than the average S&P500 annual return. Bitcoin, overcoming adversity: Bitcoin will be the cure to inflation damage for those you invested in it in a timely manner. Inflation is a creeping disease to money. Humans seem to have in history always procrastinated towards dangers of inflation, mostly since inflation treads slowly. Inflation also holds illusions supporting hope, hope that also fuels procrastination. While most who suffer under inflationary times think prices for goods went up, the reality is that monetary value went down. With this illusion, we hold on to stock portfolios seemingly rising, bonds, 401ks, and Roth IRAs trusting governments for the status quo to be protected or at least trouble to be temporary. Much more likely, most citizens are drained of their savings and cheated out of their retirements. At the end of such a monetary devaluation cycle, it will be the last time bitcoin will defend its place.  Doubt will finally vanish. Unfortunately, too late for those who did not educate themselves early enough to find a haven in this principled way to protect one’s wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Santa preparing to take back the reins of the market! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Silver on Christmas gift list

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.11.2021 11:06
Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
All alone with bitcoin

All alone with bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.11.2021 11:06
With this psychological burden, you want to stack your odds as good as possible to gain an edge for balance. Bitcoin provides such advantages. The inherent volatility allows for follow-through after an entry. In other words, one gets good risk/reward-ratios in midterm plays on bitcoin. Also, necessary for the long-term time frame player since hodling has another psychological hurdle that piled on top can be devastating. You won’t find many traders who bought a bundle of bitcoin when it traded at a dollar and are still holding it without ever having sold or rebought some. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, the Doji explosion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Quarterly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The quarterly chart of bitcoin shows how explosive moves to the upside can be. If you look at the yellow lines, you will see that a small Doji builds after a retracement, and then prices explode within the next quarter like rockets. This trading behavior provides for sensational risk/reward-ratios. The quarterly chart shows a bullish quarter. Even though all-time highs have been rejected, we see the year ending on a bullish note. The great thing about this self-directed profession, on the other hand, is that you get all the credit. Work directly translates into money, without the typical step in between, selling a product or a service. If you are good at what you are doing in the trading/investing arena, rewards can be more than plentiful. No gift baskets need to be sent to a boss or coworker. True rewards for arduous work to yourself. A very self-fulfilling profession indeed. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, most often trending: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The monthly chart illustrates the steepness of the trend, and yellow lines provide a possible long reload opportunity, which will take all-time highs out next year. Another benefit for individual traders choosing to trade bitcoin is its unique personality of trending much more than most trading instruments. This unique feature adds a massive edge to a trader’s trading arsenal. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, freeing investment capital fast: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. But this isn’t all. From a trading perspective, bitcoin supports the unsupported individual in comparison to gold or silver as alternate wealth preservation tools due to its speed. Risk is the most defining aspect for a trader, and consequently, capital exposure time is the most crucial aspect. After all, the longer money is in the market, the more exposed it is, let’s say, to unexpected news and six sigma events. Market money parked cannot produce elsewhere and is also emotionally draining. No such thing in bitcoin.A look at the weekly time frame illustrates what we mean by this. It took less than eight weeks for bitcoin to gain staggering percentage moves within the first and second leg in this steep regression channel up. We also just entered a low-risk entry zone again for a third leg to mature. In short, you are all alone with bitcoin, but at least you picked the most ideal alliance with this trading vehicle to stack the odds in your favor. All alone with bitcoin: The business of market play is unique. You’re not learning this skill in school, mentors are hard to come by, and it isn’t a group sport. It is advisable to seek out a community of like-minded traders like our free telegram channel, since spouses rarely can comprehend the steepness of the learning curve and the challenges of constant self-reflection and pain until the consistency is mastered.  While one typically can team up and is supported within a group at the mastery level required, it’s a solo sport in trading.  Statistics support that the likeliest reason for failure in this business is underestimating the time required to acquire all the important skills necessary for success. New traders run either out of money or patience.  The press makes it look so easy, and the fact that all one needs to do is press a button doesn’t help towards a more respectful attitude. Yet, the mere truth is that it is one of the most demanding businesses to find oneself into. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
We Might Say Next FED Moves Are Not Obvious As Some Factors Differentiate Circumstances

Silver, shrugging off attacks

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.11.2021 13:32
Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, a battle for freedom

Bitcoin, a battle for freedom

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.11.2021 08:01
We find ourselves ensued in various battles. Environmentally, economically, and from a human perspective. As much as it is questionable if coal and oil, centralized money, and wars (attacks on ourselves) hold a prosperous future, change is typically avoided. There have been moments in history where rapid change happened. Most often introduced by a charismatic human being with a compelling principle at a defining moment when a change was needed. S&P 500 Index versus BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin an answer to crisis? S&P 500 Index versus Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. The bitcoin idea was born as a response to the crash of 2008. In its principles, diametrical to fiat currencies. Bitcoin is decentralized, limited, deflationary and digital. There is no historical event where increased money printing has resolved economic turmoil. And yet, we have not come up with a better solution, or at least we have not implemented it yet. The chart above shows how shortly after the crash of 2008, the first transaction ever sent on the bitcoin blockchain was completed in January 2009.Coincidence? It took some time until the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto found traction with his idea reflected in bitcoin’s price rise. Still, it has not just caught up but outperformed the market by a stunning margin. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, don’t underestimate powerful ideas: Bitcoin versus gold and silver in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Covid provided like a steroid a means to illustrate many shortcomings in a magnified way. The chart above shows that bitcoin speculation was an answer to where many find a more prosperous future compared to precious metals. In addition to fundamentals and technical, the underlying idea and hope for a transitory future got traction when people were most afraid.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, sitting through turmoil with ease: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Dissecting markets like this in all their shades and facets is necessary for discovering underlying currents, motivation, and sustainability of trends. In bitcoins case, the found strength of application, beliefs, and principles inherent in bitcoin itself and its traders allows for sitting more easily through its volatility swings. Once the mind grasps reason, it tolerates easier, otherwise hardships to trade a volatile vehicle like bitcoin. With a battle ensured on this magnitude and for an expected long duration, one can accept deep retracements in a more tranquil fashion. The monthly chart above shows that bitcoin might face one of those quick dips that hodlers accept, knowing that the battle isn’t over yet. Bitcoin, a battle for freedom: Mills are grinding slowly. Change typically takes time, and those holding the reign over financial power will certainly not surrender such summoned energies lightly. While this world certainly needs a more adaptive behavior of humanity both for its wellbeing and the planet itself, it is unlikely that a shift, if at all, will be swift. This means that bitcoin is a continued struggle to establish itself. And this will result in continued high volatility for the years to come. As such, it will remain an excellent opportunity for the individual investor. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Silver, the waiting game

Silver, the waiting game

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.11.2021 19:25
Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.11.2021 10:24
Some might argue that it is best to sit on one’s hands and wait for a time when bitcoin prices are suppressed, and they have a point with the possibility of a market crash. And then again, they might have said that already when bitcoin was still trading at US$3,000 (we do not find it likely that bitcoin will ever retrace to those levels again.). Where are the uncertainties in bitcoins certainty? When you dissect a complex mechanism, you will always find a problem. It is like going to the bakery. It would be foolish to expect to get anything else but bread. Maybe it is better to look at a glass half full, meaning why not look at why bitcoin could be a certainty? BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, every buyer is a winner if he didn’t sell: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. The monthly chart above certainly shows that whoever bought in the past has made a profit by now. Yet, we know “hodling” isn’t an easy thing. Personal risk appetite determines the number of bitcoin that can be held throughout these boom and bust cycles. We solved this dilemma through our quad exit strategy. And we teach low-risk position size building in our free telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, new all-time highs: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 9th, 2021. Now, moving forward to real-time, we can make out a similar bullish picture on the weekly chart after our glimpse in the past. Recent events provide data that substantiates bitcoin’s long-term certainty. A look at the last two weeks of October (marked in white) reveals a very brief battle with a minimal retracement level at the double top of all-time highs. Bears barely get a foot in the door, where typically bitcoin experiences significant retracements. To us, a clear sign that the rush is on. Big player money is now rushing to accumulate the necessary size they aim to hold on their books for the long term. Consequently, reducing volatility, one of the most feared aspects of bitcoin, which in times to come will attract more market players to this trading vehicle.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, six figures in 2022: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. A look into the future from a monthly chart perspective is confidence building as well. With new all-time high prices printing at the time of publication of this chart book, our bet is still on bitcoin with a 63% over 47% chance that prices will advance from here rather than retracing to a substantially lower price level. So far, bitcoin has done nothing else but eradicate the uncertainties placed in its way. The most stubborn doubter would likely be happy if they had picked up a few coins when they traded at a dollar. What provides confidence for our forecast is the confirmation that bitcoin price retracements are now more modest. This lets us assume that the number of professional traders participating in this market has increased. In the monthly chart above, you can make out that closing prices of the month’s May, June, and July this year closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A conservative retracement for bitcoins historical standards. We project for the near term that bitcoin will reach six-figure prices in mid-February next year. The uncertain certainty of bitcoin: From the anticipatory perspective, it seems evident that holding bitcoin is a prudent move with a look into the future. A hedge is needed once the risk is apparent to all, and the house of cards will tumble.  From a real-time perspective, we also find bitcoin to be a “must-own.” The charts above showed the strength with which bitcoin is aching to claim its turf, and it is never good to wait till “fear of missing out” kicks in, and low-risk entry opportunities become scarce.  And from a reactionary perspective, a look in the past, it is evident that anybody would like a piece of the action where bitcoin has nothing but a stunning history of unheard percentage moves and made it from eight cents to US$ 67,000 in just a dozen years.  There are always uncertainties in speculative ventures, but bitcoin itself is a certainty, not to be rationalized away for the years to come. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, patience pays

Silver, patience pays

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.11.2021 08:13
Here is what you should consider when asking why it isn’t trading even higher. First, after an initial up-leg like this, a trend is set in motion, but it is just the beginning of a trend. It needs time to develop. Most of the reasons debated this year when silver stepped into the limelight were the reasons the traders anticipated fueling the first leg. A big part is that it takes time until the public digests the market, which is ahead of reality, a speculative prognosis on how the future might look. There is a trickle-down effect until silver can build up its second leg. From an active market speculator perspective, inflation is real, but years can pass until the crowd realizes what is going on. Then gold needs to move, which in turn awakens silver with a delay. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bull as bull can be: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The monthly gold chart above shows the strong bullish trend in gold over the last twenty years. Telltales are a higher high in 2020 versus 2011, and the price strength since. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, getting ready: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly chart has just come alive to an exciting inflection point. A closer look reveals that price has successfully built a second leg from the US$1,680 double bottom price zone (yellow lines). The upcoming weeks should show if a double triangle formation (red lines) was severed now that the price is trading above POC support of a fractal volume study (white line). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, looking good: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly silver chart is bullish as well. Bulls have successfully defended the yearly range lows zone (slim white box). They mutually are attacking an overhead resistance with quite some might, and upcoming weeks might find price successful in that attempt. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, history as a guide: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The above monthly chart shows an excellent example of how much patience is needed to earn significant profits from a silver investment. In this case, silver initiated a range break in 1973, where prices tripled within a year. Much like silver’s recent move from March last year to the current top in February this year. It showed a similar percentage move. This first leg of a bullish trend required more than three years of investor’s patience before the second leg was initiated. Those patient enough to hold on were rewarded with a near thousand percent price increase.   Silver, patience pays: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”Nothing has changed in the last hundred years about the principle value of this quote by Edwin Lefèvre (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, published in 1923). We are used to active participation in a process to earn one’s wages. In this aspect however, the market is counterintuitive. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” Lefèvre again points towards patience and a state of inactivity being just right in market play. We find the last phase of silver in a sideways range if anything is encouraging to a substantial second leg up in the making, It will therefore reward the patient owner of his physical holdings. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher

Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.11.2021 11:02
Bitcoin is volatile and nosedives in some of these attacks. A historical look back illustrates how bitcoin each time is climbing higher right after: 2009 traded for free (zero value) between enthusiasts 2010 worth US$0.08 2011 from US$1 up to US$32 back down to US$2 2012 from US$4.80 up to US$13.20 2013 from US$13.40 up to US$1,156 and down to US$760 2014 – 2016 down to US$315 2017 up to US$20,089 2018 down to US$3,122 2019 up to US$13,880 2020 up to US$34,800 2021 up to US$67,016 And these last three years, bitcoin has been climbing higher, undeterred. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin, a true winner: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The monthly chart above illustrates bitcoin’s winning characteristics. We can see harmonious swings. Retracements are substantial, but bitcoin shows a persistent tendency to outperform previous all-time highs. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, explosive recent history: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The weekly chart points towards more explosive moves recently. After a breakout of a multi-year range, we can see that bitcoin has started to move substantially due to more widespread adoption. Swing behavior is getting more harmonious. At the moment, we are in the midst of a battle between bears and bulls at a double top formation. Consequently, the following days to weeks will show who will come out ahead. The fact that bulls cling to their winnings for this long gives price in this pat situation a slight edge for the bullish corner.   BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, stepping away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The daily chart can be pretty volatile. These smaller time frames are advised only to be traded if you are a professional. This applies particularly to struggle zones like the one we are currently in, for instance. Intraday swings can get substantial. In addition, once these battles between bears and bulls resolve, daily percentage moves can be staggering. Luckily, one doesn’t need to fear such challenging trading environments. To clarify, step up to larger time frames and reduce trade frequency and position size. Accept the risk based on adequate position size to your individual psychology and risk appetite. Consequently, buying for the long term will become much easier. It is essential as such to be familiar with a trading object’s typical behavior and, in bitcoins case, not to forget its ability to shine after a major setback. Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher: Overall, bitcoins’ technical personality makes it an easy choice for one’s wealth preservation portfolio. Especially when options for wealth preservation investments are limited! This year’s strength towards gold and silver price performance had us increase bitcoins percentage allocation within the long-term portfolio. It fulfills two valuable functions to firmly find its place under historically much longer established counterparts. Scarcity for stability, and a more considerable performance potential necessary to protect against inflation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Bitcoin’s trading psychology - 02.11.2021

Bitcoin’s trading psychology - 02.11.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.11.2021 09:49
BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, leg analysis:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of October 25th, 2021.From a pure price perception, it might seem that the consistency bitcoin holds in price bubbles might be of the same origin, but they are not. In 2009, the value of the coin was zero, and fans exchanged it more like reminding of a seedy Star Wars bar exchange of true fans for a new idea, technology, beliefs, and freedom. Even so, bubbles arose a year later, and the price was driven by extreme supply and demand imbalances due to ill-liquidity when news hit the media.Since these times, we have seen all sorts of traders, speculators, investors, banks, hedge funds, governments join the speculation in a profitable market. Each with their specific mindset, interests, and trading psychology. The latest shift is now the race of governments getting a hold on the worldwide dominance reign. They will be true hodlers. Before that last influx, the bitcoin market was dominated by pure speculators for the most part. In a sense, they were forced into this market to stay competitive. Wide swings were the result since there was little incentive to stay in this game for the long term or, in other words, taking the risk on the large downswings.One first step, identifying in which market and cycle one is competing, are comparing up-legs in size (percentage) and steepness (time).The daily chart above shows such measurements of the last two significant moves in bitcoin this year.It has taken bitcoin only three months to more than double in price.BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Projections:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 26th, 2021.With governments and the wider population now being the last to come to the party, we will see a shift in the trading behavior of bitcoin. This needs adjustment in one’s trading style to be part of this craze for the virtual, decentralized future.One such shift in the process may be a reduction of retracements depth within the second leg from a weekly perspective. We have drawn a projection of the second leg highly conservative in the chart above. Conservative, since second legs are typically longer, and we only assumed an identical extension to the first leg (1=2=3 in length and angle). BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, time accuracy:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 26th, 2021.Bitcoins’ childhood days have long passed. Seedy bar purchases have changed for high liquidity and professional exchanges with advanced order execution functionality. The big guns sit on the table, and as such, trading has shaped up. The individual is now playing against the best in the world, like in any other asset class, and risk should be perceived as such.Nevertheless, a larger time frame play for wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation is controllable in risk. Market participation analysis allows for a better grip on what to expect and scales in on targets from a time perspective. The above monthly chart illustrates our view of a possible future. The logarithmic chart shows best what inherent strength bitcoin possesses.Bitcoin´s trading psychology:The largest group that is not invested in bitcoin yet is the more significant part of average citizens. Consequently, we will find ourselves in an extreme supply demand imbalance due to bitcoins fixed limit of 21 million coins. More importantly, we will discover new trading behavior with a new group participating, with new psychology. These purchases will be made by amateurs who are motivated by fear more than greed. This market participant will be a long-term speculator trying to hold on to his investment versus making a quick buck. We anticipate more moderate overall retracements percentagewise. As well, we expect steeper legs up. These will result in a different system needed to participate in a market with low-risk entry points.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver’s fuse is about to be lit

Silver’s fuse is about to be lit

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.10.2021 16:45
The average investor is news-driven. As much as the Federals Reserve  (the Fed) might be criticized, this large investor group is not commonly doubting news. In other words, it has generally believed the Fed’s narrative that inflation is transitory. The bad news is rarely released shortly before Christmas. However, it would not surprise if tapering started in early 2022. And maybe not just begin but be more aggressive throughout the year as expected. With this, the narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation. Therefore, this could easily be the fire to the fuse of the Silver rocket. We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, low-risk entry points: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 30th, 2021. It isn’t only that the overall narrative on transitory inflation is starting to get holes. We like the silver play, for instance because gold is somewhat in the limelight in battle with bitcoin. Consequently, allowing for silver to shine while it is typically in the shadow. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long term bull market. This is a play where everything is coming together. A multi stream both in fundamental and technical edges stack upon each other. As of right now, we have identified four low-risk entry points on the daily silver chart, which are marked in bright green horizontal lines. We would take off 50% of the position near the US$26 mark to mitigate risk (see our quad exit strategy). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, good risk reward ratio: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 30th, 2021. The weekly chart offers a low-risk opportunity as well. We illustrated above a play that assumes an entry point in the lower third quadrant of the yellow marked sideways zone. It would provide for a risk/reward-ratio between 1:1 and 1:2 towards the financing point. As well we assume an exit of half of the position at the top near US$28 of the yellow sideways channel (see our quad exit strategy). With two more exits of each 25% of total trade equity at targets US$34.83 and US$48.72, we find the weekly play to be conducive to our low-risk policy.  Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, favorable probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 30th, 2021. With its most considerable weight, the monthly chart provides the necessary overview. It shows how likely a success rate to a long-term play outcome is. We find three dominant aspects supporting our aim for a bullish long-term play. Trend: The linear regression channel is marked in diagonal lines (red, blue, green). It shows a clearly bullish trend with a high likelihood of continuation. Support: The Ichimoku cloud analysis provides solid evidence of support to the recently established bullish tone in silver. Probabilities: Price highs from 1980 to 2011 built a double top price formation. As a result, it prevented prices from getting higher than the price zone marked with a white box. The third attempt of price reaching this price zone nevertheless has a much higher statistical probability of penetrating this distribution zone and allowing the price to go higher. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit: We find ourselves in challenging times. Certainly, not only in market play. One of the essential pillars to come out ahead is bending in the wind and staying flexible. Should the FED indeed raise interest rates to a degree non-reflected in the anticipated market price of speculators and come as a surprise, we might see a stock market decline next year of a substantial percentage. Consequently, this would temporarily drag silver prices down as well. We share methods in our free Telegram channel to build low-risk positions within the market that reduce risk through partial profit-taking. Our quad exit strategy allows us to hedge physical acquisitions by trading around these positions on smaller time frames in the silver paper market. Our approach provides a way to maneuver through a delicate environment to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
European Rate Surge Continues

Bitcoin’s trading psychology

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.10.2021 13:34
Typically, the focus is on price when talking about trading. Still, just like “entries” get more attention because they come first, professionals know that it is “exits” that deserve the more significant amount of attention. It is the risk where the focus should be; related to time much more versus price. The emphasis superseding all is psychology. Psychology separates the amateur from the professional. One subset of this essential aspect of trading is the analysis of which groups with their specific psychology trade the market in focus. Such a study provides insight into the overall trading behavior of a particular trading instrument, bitcoins trading psychology. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, leg analysis: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of October 25th, 2021. From a pure price perception, it might seem that the consistency bitcoin holds in price bubbles might be of the same origin, but they are not. In 2009, the value of the coin was zero, and fans exchanged it more like reminding of a seedy Star Wars bar exchange of true fans for a new idea, technology, beliefs, and freedom. Even so, bubbles arose a year later, and the price was driven by extreme supply and demand imbalances due to ill-liquidity when news hit the media. Since these times, we have seen all sorts of traders, speculators, investors, banks, hedge funds, governments join the speculation in a profitable market. Each with their specific mindset, interests, and trading psychology. The latest shift is now the race of governments getting a hold on the worldwide dominance reign. They will be true hodlers. Before that last influx, the bitcoin market was dominated by pure speculators for the most part. In a sense, they were forced into this market to stay competitive. Wide swings were the result since there was little incentive to stay in this game for the long term or, in other words, taking the risk on the large downswings. One first step, identifying in which market and cycle one is competing, are comparing up-legs in size (percentage) and steepness (time). The daily chart above shows such measurements of the last two significant moves in bitcoin this year. It has taken bitcoin only three months to more than double in price. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Projections: With governments and the wider population now being the last to come to the party, we will see a shift in the trading behavior of bitcoin. This needs adjustment in one’s trading style to be part of this craze for the virtual, decentralized future. One such shift in the process may be a reduction of retracements depth within the second leg from a weekly perspective. We have drawn a projection of the second leg highly conservative in the chart above. Conservative, since second legs are typically longer, and we only assumed an identical extension to the first leg (1=2=3 in length and angle). BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, time accuracy: Bitcoins’ childhood days have long passed. Seedy bar purchases have changed for high liquidity and professional exchanges with advanced order execution functionality. The big guns sit on the table, and as such, trading has shaped up. The individual is now playing against the best in the world, like in any other asset class, and risk should be perceived as such. Nevertheless, a larger time frame play for wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation is controllable in risk. Market participation analysis allows for a better grip on what to expect and scales in on targets from a time perspective. The above monthly chart illustrates our view of a possible future. The logarithmic chart shows best what inherent strength bitcoin possesses. Bitcoin´s trading psychology: The largest group that is not invested in bitcoin yet is the more significant part of average citizens. Consequently, we will find ourselves in an extreme supply demand imbalance due to bitcoins fixed limit of 21 million coins. More importantly, we will discover new trading behavior with a new group participating, with new psychology. These purchases will be made by amateurs who are motivated by fear more than greed. This market participant will be a long-term speculator trying to hold on to his investment versus making a quick buck. We anticipate more moderate overall retracements percentagewise. As well, we expect steeper legs up. These will result in a different system needed to participate in a market with low-risk entry points. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.    
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 19.10.2021

Silver, the loaded spring

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.10.2021 11:43
The supply crunch might stretch as much as a seven-year event from now, but the spring is loaded already. It isn’t only a supply, demand scenario when talking about silver. Little accounted for is any surprise, and in our opinion, the slightest cough could set this spring off. The sum of fundamental facts is overwhelming on how the next large turning point could set silver  into stellar motion. With this many accelerators, it makes this an incredible risk/reward-ratio play. Silver, the loaded spring. Here are a few facts that we do not see accounted for in price and as that find to be accelerators for the next monthly time frame leg up: increase in demand for physical silver purchase during the previous eighteen months eleven trillion dollars pumped into the economy over the last eighteen months (inflation) electricity prices rising = demand for solar panels increasing (which contain silver) supply logistic constraints all over the world make large shipments of raw materials stuck in various ports (including silver) Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, signs of life: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 22nd, 2021. With the already present shortages of blanks for minting coins and a driver shortage for armored cars, why is silver trading at these low numbers? There is plenty of evidence that once demand for silver increases further, a short squeeze might be triggered. Consequently, silver prices might soar beyond typical trend steepness. On the daily chart above, signs of life are already evident. The trend-down channel since June this year has recently been broken to the upside. The first indication of a reversal. We have a keen eye on the price levels near the green dotted horizontal lines for possible low-risk long entries. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, on the verge: We have warned numerous times that the two most detrimental factors to market losses are intuition and emotions. Intuition, while one of the most resourceful problem solvers, is worthless in the counterintuitive market environment. Emotions provide for a clouded perception of actual market behavior and a tendency to overwrite one’s rules and cause sabotage to disciplined behavior necessary for execution within one’s market play. Emotions aren’t only fear and greed, or chasing trades and running stops. Over the last forty years, we were less worried about inflation. As a result, we might be a bit  complacent now to validate early warning signals. Procrastination might be a consequence. Be advised that acquisition of physical purchase requires availability and even more knowledge. What to buy? Where to buy it? The spring is loaded. There is no room for research once it’s sprung. Prepare your actions in detail. Make a sample purchase for confidence and experience if you haven’t done so already. It is education that supports all subsequent steps and possible surprises to endure. Knowledge will give you the edge over the average citizen. Spot price analysis is helpful as well to keep calm and prepared. The weekly chart above shows a pat situation. Bulls celebrated above the mean (blue line). Fourteen weeks ago, the directional green trend line was violated by price. Bears pushed since then prices to lower levels. Right now, we are right on the verge of price trading near the red resistance downtrend line. This makes not for a low-risk entry zone on this time frame but should price close above this line, it would indicate a possible long trend continuation. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bullish engulfing pattern: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 22nd, 2021. It seems the crowd is complacent about all monthly bills and especially food prices going through the roof. Many billionaires, including Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor-Jones, Bill Ackman and Warren Buffett, have stated that Americans aren’t paying enough attention to the fact that we will face consequences of the eleven trillion dollars pumped into the economy over the last eighteen months. The monthly chart reflects these market uncertainties to a certain degree. Silver prices have seen a substantial move up. Even though trading within a sideways range for over a year now, October is exceptionally strong so far. Representing a bullish engulfing pattern from a Japanese candlestick perspective, the majority of sellers in September got stopped out or are underwater. Should prices close above US$ 24 for this month, we would be very bullish on silver. We have already taken nine trades on small timeframes this month, of which seven were successful winning trades. Our quad exit strategy allows the remaining partial positions (the last 25% which we call “runner”) to be exposed at no risk within the markets. All these trades are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Silver, the loaded spring: There seems to be much confusion regarding the math on silver demand in the news. Boiling it down to a simple equation, we are mining an average of about 800 to 850 million ounces a year. In opposition to this mine supply, industrial demand is about 600 million ounces. With a speculated growth to about a billion ounces of industrial demand, it isn’t so challenging to feel safe on a long-term bet holding physical silver. And we are only talking about one sector of silver demand here… The real kicker will be the investment demand. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Bitcoin, the power of news

Bitcoin, the power of news

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 19.10.2021 12:16
Interpreting news to use for future price forecasts is as tricky as finding the solution to what came first, the chicken or the egg. Typically, news is late, meaning someone knew before, so news events are already priced into the price. Unfortunately, the news is often nothing more than lies nowadays, and distinguishing what’s real and what’s fake is another challenge. News is mainly beneficial for rationalizing a prior price move for the curious mind. Little more than a story for lunch break to claim “I told you so” before work colleagues. Bitcoin, the power of news. But not so fast! There are a few ways to navigate through the maze of news that can be helpful to one’s investment timing for entries and exits into and out of the markets. The two most significant market influencing news types are a real surprise and a sum of news items forming sentiment. Consequently, when China recently banned bitcoin, the market’s reaction was timid. China had banned bitcoin before. Their bans of companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Snapchat, had those tech companies still soar hundreds if not thousands of percent higher. In short, it was no surprise like an unforeseeable weather catastrophe to crops, terrorist attacks, or otherwise genuine surprises that can shake emotions in market speculators and, as such, turn price direction quickly. Surprises of a minor degree like Fed-President Powell stated that there be no intention to ban bitcoin if released conducive in timing can influence the price as we have seen recently. Sentiment, a sum of news over time evoking an investor’s sense of certainty or fear, can also be powerful. Concerning bitcoin, with a constant flow of positive news releases like El Salvador holds 2.7 million BTC users, Brazil is planning to adopt bitcoin, multiple BTC ETFs are in the process of getting approved, and large investors like George Soros and Michael Saylor are stacking up in bitcoin can create price support. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, China’s BTC ban: The Central Bank of China declared a general ban on bitcoin on the 24th of September this year. The market declined a modest ten percent. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, FED-“no intentions to ban BTC”: On the other hand, a week later, when House Representative Ted Budd had asked if it was Jerome Powell’s “intention to limit or ban cryptocurrencies, as we see in China”, the chairman declined such intentions of the Federal Reserve, markets soared. A daily time frame turning point was initiated, with a follow through all the way to a 52% increase. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, six figures soon: Another supporting news item for the sentiment was the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, stating: “crypto-assets have the right to exist and can be used as a means of payment.” The sum of positive sentiment lured the price to a double top (as you can spot on the weekly chart above). We find probabilities in favor that these highs will be taken out soon and that the third leg of this entire move most likely will reach six figures within the next four to five months. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bullish: A final look at the most meaningful monthly time frame supports the overall bullish tone. Even though it might look like a double top, we should see new highs. Should November close as a Doji (uncertainty bar), we might have to revisit these prognostics. As of now, bears are facing quite some buying pressure. Bitcoin, the power of news: Our minds are desperately seeking reasons for cause and effect, and news is like a relief to our market speculation. Unfortunately, acting on news releases themselves intuitively leads, in most cases, to losses. Where quick action is required is when news items are of true surprising nature to all. News items of unforeseeable disastrous consequences can immediately affect markets, but are typically rare in occurrence. Another set of news that is meaningful to an investor is a sum of news with the same polarity. Forming a sentiment within market speculators over time, this continuous news flow can support a trend. Consequently, this can be helpful to the trader. Once sentiment becomes extreme, the astute contrarian can use sentiment also as an early indicator on when to take partial profits and eventually fade this trend. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 24 October 2021

Silver, the edge over gold

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.10.2021 09:35
When discussing wealth preservation or any form of a conservative hedge, the word gold comes easily to the forefront. The shiny metal has a substantial history of having saved a civilization or two. The lesser obvious choice is silver, but this precious metal is in a unique situation right now that any speculator that seeks out a hedge against inflation should be aware of. Silver, the edge over gold. It isn’t just a good bet to hedge exuberant market risk right now. It is massively undervalued and, as such, a pristine play in itself. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, still at average prices: A look at the monthly chart over the last forty years, back to 1980 when the US also was confronted with a crisis, silver prices skyrocketed. Overall, though, prices right now reflect averages like averages of that time. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, trending up: In comparison to the monthly gold chart, we can see what’s out of whack. Gold since then from its averages at the time has appreciated nearly 300%. We see no fundamental reasons that substantiate such a divergence between the two. With silver being that grossly undervalued, it has tremendous additional potential once it is forced to catch up. This is partially reflected in the stretch between the spot price and the actual value of physical silver that can be acquired. A nearly 20% spread can be seen now for almost two years. It would come as no surprise that a supply shortage might bring fuel to an up move. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, minimizing entry risk: It isn’t only the long-term profit probability that makes silver attractive. Silver also has an edge from the perspective of execution. Low-risk entries and exits are fundamental elements for high probability win ratios. We want to share some edges with the reader on how to engage with silver from an execution standpoint. We picked the daily time frame since daily charts do have a significant position for most market speculators. Daily time frame charts are typically used for smaller time frame position traders as setup time frames. Larger time frame players who have their setups either on weekly or monthly charts still use daily time frames to time their entries to mitigate execution risk. We circled in the daily chart above two sets of supportive methods on how to find low-risk entries that provide not only higher likely turning points, but a way to set tighter stops than usual. White circles show how meaningful the “mean” (blue line) is to silver traders. Yellow circles show when the price meets the 200 simple moving average (purple line), another point of interest to traders. A low-risk entry point marks when multiple edges appear simultaneously like in scenario “one,” a low-risk entry point is located. In our example, a short entry with support from a two-hundred simple moving average, the mean, and a distribution zone defined by a fractal volume analysis (histogram to the right of the chart.) Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, getting ready: From a long-term investment perspective, we would be interested in looking for a daily low-risk entry point once October (very right bar on monthly chart above) closes in the green. In addition, we would like the price to be lower than the October’s candle closing price after the first four trading days of November. Silver, the edge over gold: We do not believe in extremes, quite the contrary. While typically diversification means more like throwing stuff against the wall and hoping something sticks, when it comes to wealth preservation, diversification is a good thing. We aren’t living in times to aim to make a killing. Right now, risk control supersedes exuberant market play for profits. We find gold and bitcoin very much suitable to protect your wealth. The steep percentage factor of inflation also warrants for a more aggressive wealth preservation play. That is where silver comes in. Silver with the potential to see triple-digit prices in the near future allows for keeping inflation risk in check. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Silver is your inflation protector

Silver is your inflation protector

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.10.2021 07:05
Gold in US-Dollar, weekly Chart, Gold trending down:Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 8th, 2021.At first, glance, looking at price percentage declines of the gold chart, one could assume silver to be the weaker of the two precious metals in the race to make it into your wealth preservation portfolio.Silver in US-Dollar, weekly Chart, Silver trading sideways:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 8th, 2021.Once comparing the gold chart with the above silver chart, one can see that gold traded in a trending fashion lower since its October 2020 highs, while silver traded sideways. It can be speculated that once inflationary fears spread further, silver will outperform gold by a generous margin.Gold/Silver-Ratio, Monthly Chart, a need to catch up:Gold/Silver-Ratio, monthly chart as of October 8th, 2021.In addition, once the upward direction for the larger time frames is reestablished after a likely crash scenario looming over the markets, silver also needs to catch up. We find a real relationship between the two shiny metals somewhere in the teens and not at excessive levels of 78 right now.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, timing is everything:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 8th, 2021.Now that we have found the preferred speculative vehicle, it is essential to point out that the physical acquisition is the most desirable exposure to this market. We are still in a corrective phase of the precious metal sector. Consequently, patience is key to time one’s purchases. One advantage, the silver investor has is that silver typically follows gold with a slight delay from the larger long-term time frame perspective.A look at the monthly chart above reveals silvers strength. After a stunning move up from March last year from US$ 11.64 to US$ 29.85, prices retraced modestly. Price in relationship to Ichimoku cloud analysis also suggests a bullish continuation. Most significantly, we can see that a volume price analysis over the last fifteen years shows a strong supply zone at US$ 19.80. Where bears get, a breath of air is at the slow stochastic readings near 80 (red line on bottom indicator).Silver is your inflation protector:It is timing that is elusive here. Crash scenarios fall out of the norm. This typically affects charts and clouds a neutral stand and interpretation towards the market. Here, silver shines in its typically lagging behavior regarding entries compared to its brother gold. Most often followed by its explosive follow-through and, as such, bang for the buck. As such, we are keeping a keen eye on the gold prices to lead us to find low-risk entry zones. Noteworthy is also the lower risk of regulative interference from the government of physical ownership in comparison to gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 8th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold

Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 05.10.2021 09:04
At a closer look:Bitcoin is divisible to a much higher degree than gold. This means even small purchases can be made in dire times.It is also scarcer than gold since a maximum of twenty-one million coins defines it, while gold supply is speculative and continuously mined.Where bitcoin truly shines is in its portability. A long-distance payment in gold can provide quite some hurdles, while a bitcoin transaction is verified typically within less than an hour anywhere in the world.Verifiability is an easy one for bitcoin on a computer, and not so easy for gold. From a security perspective, a tiny “USB-like” stick can hold all your wealth when it comes to bitcoin, while a Fort Knocks is necessary for a more extensive gold amount for protection.Now that we have established bitcoins validity to measure up to the big boys, let us look at its desirability from a chart perspective regarding acquisition timing.Housing Sector Index in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Clouds on the horizon:Housing Sector Index in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 4th, 2021.With China’s real estate bubble in bloom and markets intertwined throughout the globe, early warning signals also start to show in the US. The daily chart above of the HGX (Housing Sector Index) gives such an indication clearly. We see a similar picture of a previous swift decline (-50%) setting up at the 200 moving average (orange line) right now. The index, composed of companies whose primary lines of business are directly associated with the U.S. housing construction market, already lost more than 18% from its recent top last May.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Everything is possible:Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 4th, 2021.Most of the time, real estate is the first turning point for the market to come undone. Closely followed by the Russel 2000, then the S&P500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100. Precious metals are not spared since money is needed to pay for margin calls. All asset classes get in motion, and so will Bitcoin; rather sooner than later, since “exotics” typically are cannon fodder. No worries, though; it will be in turn also in the early recovery field alongside precious metals.A look at a monthly gold chart shows a ten-year bullish uptrend followed by a ten-year wide sideways range. Consequently, we are left with two likely scenarios. A trend continuation initiated by a breakout to new highs. And equally a possibility after the wide double top built in August last year that prices decline further down. This especially if Gold comes under pressure of an altogether market crash. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 5th, 2021.China isn’t just the forefront threat regarding real estate but also an insight into how strong regulation of a market, in this case, bitcoin, can have detrimental effects on a market already in a retracement. It is likely that the crypto space and bitcoin will see a second wave of regulatory attacks in the US.The weekly bitcoin chart illustrates that price is stuck in a distribution zone, with a second resistance zone right above (red squares). We find these price levels less attractive from a market low-risk entry perspective. Consequently, we see a more attractive entry point once the market has shown its hand. Now is the time to keep the powder dry and act sensibly after the possible storm shows first signs of clearing skies.Bitcoin is an equal wealth preserver to gold:Evolution churns slowly, and gold outperforms bitcoin by far when it comes to established history. But as much as change might come slowly to human behavior, it is yet a fact that once fuel injection was outperforming carburetors, that sooner or later, everyone wants the better performing car. What we did not mention yet is bitcoins advantage over gold in the aspect of decentralization—a new element to money that could come to the forefront of importance faster than assumed just yet.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 5th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin and the beauty principle

Bitcoin and the beauty principle

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.09.2021 10:51
Expansions of the “golden mean” in the form of the Fibonacci ratio have found their stronghold in technical analysis as a long used edge for predicting retracement levels and future distribution zones as exit targets. We have extracted edges in the often-underestimated trading aspect, time.If you want to learn more about “The Beauty Principle”, we recommend taking a look at some our past chart-books:May 17th, 2021, Crypto Chartbook – Bitcoin, the beauty principleFebruary 22nd, 2021, Crypto Chartbook – Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motionJuly 2nd, 2018, Crypto Chartbook – The Beauty PrincipleBTC-USD, Daily Chart, Time as support:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 25th, 2021.We posted the above chart on August 25th in our weekly chart book publication at that time. If you compare to the recent chart below, you will find a progression of price stunningly adhering to the predictive value of the white time arcs.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Stacking edges for low-risk entries:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 14th, 2021.You can make out that price made a double bottom (yellow horizontal line) precisely at the time when arc two was reached from a time perspective. The time element served as an extra edge for low-risk entry points. Price adhered to the rising arc and again found support when arc three was reached. Using lesser-known edges like these helps for low-risk entry timing. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Time and price:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 14th, 2021.Another edge tailored to bitcoin is a combination of both, price and time. You will find in the chart above that bitcoin, when trading near the statistical mean (red line), has substantial advances after building a double bottom. This fact is advantageous, since many mathematical edges cease when the price is near the mean. If prices originated from a previous up-leg, we find these times to be sensible looking for additional edges to low-risk entry points.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, early warning signals:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 14th, 2021.On July sixth, we posted another chart that involved time analysis under our beauty principle edge structure, and projections came true. If you followed us at the time with the entries we posted live in our free Telegram channel, you were able to nearly double your money. Now we have taken substantial profits off the table. Should the monthly candle to the very right, representing September, close as a bearish red candle, a second down leg could be in store for bitcoin.From a fundamental beauty perspective, bitcoin has found itself transcended from a practical philosophical idea and inspired bodies collecting it at the time. Now it is already a store of value of over a trillion-dollar value. While not yet a unit of account, we see more and more significant cases where bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange. There is still a lack of understanding of bitcoin and its beauty at present. But nature shows that beauty typically persists, and mass adoption is undoubtedly a highly likely possibility.Bitcoin and the beauty principle:Due to the high degree of variables in the market present, it provides a vast field of possibilities of interpretation. Consequently, it allows generous room for new edges to be extracted. Critics of technical analysis often claim that technical analysis is nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is only partially true. By definition of a principle being a fundamental truth or proposition that serves as the foundation for a system of belief or behavior or a chain of reasoning, it is an ultimate truth with inherent high value. We find the laborious effort to search for new ways to define market behavior as essential. After all, a significant edge is only the one known by a few.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver is your best strategy

Silver is your best strategy

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 12.09.2021 09:11
There are two software development strategies. “Waterfall,” which produces a product sequential, sending stages of development through various departments until it is finished. And “Agile strategy,” which, on the other hand, is all focused on “time to market.” It identified that product placement is doomed to fail if the rate of change outside a company is faster than the rate of change inside the company. It focuses on a parallel effort of teams to produce an MVP (minimum viable product). Investing isn’t much different. If you follow sequentially through news and buy an investment when the media finally shouts it off the rooftop, you most likely are the one holding the bag and are beyond late to low-risk entry timing. Right now, Silver is your best strategy. A contrarian and more “agile strategy” is not following a stream of data but individually make an overall independent assessment of a sum of data and purchase a product like physical silver when it is out of favor, hence cheap.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Accuracy through principles and experience:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 11th, 2021.A subset of agile software development is “Scrum”. In “Scrum” meetings, various departments meet to reach a common goal quickly. We have emulated this outcome-oriented parallel effort in our daily call. It gets posted daily for free in our free telegram channel. It is a 24-hour outlook that comprises market analysis in a principle-based fashion, from variables like risk, market psychology, statistical edges, inter-market relationships, time of the week, seasonal relations, relative strength/weakness, and money management, to name a few. We have, throughout the decades, stacked odds in a way for these daily forecasts to be highly accurate.The daily chart above shows how bears dominated this week’s price action. It doesn’t show that traders who followed our daily calls avoided many losing trades. Even though there might have been areas of interest and seemingly valuable entry points, inter-market relationships and choppy trading made it sensible to keep market exposure to a minimum regarding new entries. It is especially true for Friday’s silver price movement. We warned to stay sidelined, expecting that the bounce wouldn’t hold up based on the time of the week. Our indications showed there would rather be a likelihood of further price declines in the upcoming week.It is fool’s gold trading from a support/ resistance perspective only, assuming certain price levels will work as borders. While this might be true for a brief period, it is not proof of a turning point. Even worse, getting stopped out in an overall environment that is not conducive for low-risk entries only to see the turning point work out eventually is damaging to a trader’s psyche. Our focus is magnified on a low-risk approach.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, purchase physical silver now for cheap:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 11th, 2021.While in the microanalysis, bears still are at even keel with the bulls, a monthly chart analysis shows that low prices like right now for physical silver acquisitions favor the long-term investor who aims to hedge bets for wealth preservation purposes. We would even go as far as speculating that the micro-environment price behavior is purposefully trying to discourage and distract the longer-term speculators for various reasons. Again, this shows that a contrarian investment approach might be the most profitable and low-risk one. Gathering fundamental data outside the trading noise and distraction commentary of media is the most prudent way to the long-term success of your objectives.With another look at the chart above, we can see that “the mean” (blue line) plays a significant role in silver’s price support. Moreover, we have additional support (green rectangle) from a transactional volume analysis. On the commodity channel index oscillator, we can also make out a possible pattern repeat (orange circles)  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Already within entry zone:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of September 11th, 2021.Trading a monthly chart for a multi-year long-term hold position, we fine-tune our entries on the lower weekly chart. We can make out on the weekly chart the significant rejection of the US$22.00 price level (long yellow wick to the downside, forming a “hammer” candlestick formation five weeks ago). With many other edges examined, we see a high likelihood for prices to stabilize above that zone. Consequently, we consider the entire yellow square as a range to add to our physical silver holdings. With a triple-digit target projection, an ultra-precise entry timing for a physical silver position is less important. Realizing that owning physical silver in this political and economic climate is an essential risk hedge is much more important.Silver is your best strategy:The principle of today’s topic between sequential actions and parallel efforts becomes even more illuminated in the learning curve to market participation itself. It is speculated that most market players give up shortly before a breakthrough after years of effort. They are either running out of funds or find themselves psychologically drained. It is based on our tendency as humans to focus on a complex problem by trying to master one aspect after another of the challenge sequentially. Technical analysis typically has the biggest allure, and successively market entries come first.Consequently, after years of mastering low-risk entry points, finding out that exits are much more important can be frustrating, to say the least. It is imperative to focus on all aspects of system development at the same time. Psychology, money management, technical analysis, execution skills, and so forth need to have an equal place within one’s development curve. Otherwise, the rate of change of the market itself will catch up with your efforts. You will not get a foot in the door.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author´s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 11th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, the big picture

Silver, the big picture

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 04.09.2021 09:47
We have all heard it, and we have all done it—the typical mistakes of trading. We ran stops, over traded, shadow traded, ignored probabilities, traded too large, and revenge traded. In addition, we ignored even the bluntest signals the market sent, like ill-liquidity, volatility, and chop. What is a lot less spoken about is the lack of a big picture. Yet, ignoring the larger time frame players who rule and steam over small-time frame setups is one of the most detrimental influences on your trading if ignored. Silver, the big picture.The problem stems from the difficulty of prediction. The further an event is in the future, the harder it is to predict. This fact lures amateurs to the smaller time frames in the desire to be correct. In addition, trade frequency is higher the smaller the time frame regarding signal generation. That makes smaller time frames more alluring since there is more action. Nevertheless, the long-term plays provide for the big profits and regarding silver physical acquisition right now is favorable.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, the big picture:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of September 3rd, 2021.We find traditional value in a fundamentally large time frame analysis first. A story, if you will, that supports what charts are showing us. Regarding the monthly view above, we nearly had a decade where metals weren’t favored, which ended with last year’s lockdown. The lesser talked about underlying current for a bullish narrative is that many raw materials are needed for the decarbonization process. Consequently, in addition to inflation and a supply to demand disbalance, we have another reason for continuing this first burst to new highs. With news shining a light on the neglected commodity sector as a whole and silver especially, we will also see at these lower levels after the new highs to be attractive to investors woken up by news and trying to step in here for cheap.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, great risk-reward ratios:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of September 3rd, 2021.Another aspect we find significant from a more broad view is that due to new Covid variants, another lockdown is a possibility. Consequently, this is a probability for another trigger point. Precious metals might shoot out of their last 13 months range to reach new all-time highs.The chart above shows projections that allow for guesstimated risk/reward-ratios on entries into the silver market. It does so from a perspective of a hedge against inflation, and a general wealth preservation option for the long term.You can make out that both scenarios of trading anticipatory below US$24, or confirmed above US$24 have a risk/reward-ratio toward the first financing point of about 1:1. at the moderate and aggressive highs of the last thirteen months range (see our quad exit strategy). The second target would be at just below US$38 and US$43.50. As always, we would let our runners (the last 25% of the initial position)  run without a trailing stop methodology. Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Anticipate, execute, take profits:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 3rd, 2021.An important factor in market speculation and, possibly, one of the top three aspects supporting the principle why the larger picture is so essential for a speculator is that the market tries to preempt the future. While we typically follow suit with action in a reactionary way in market play, it is essential to anticipate versus fact proof. This timing from a psychological factor needs this story from the removed larger perspective to support a trader’s action. Proper trade execution is near futile without the conviction on why to nourish a trend with one’s money.The daily chart above shows a chart we posted last week when we anticipated a long move under the following premises at the time: “We can see that we have entered into a short-term, low-risk advancement window after Friday’s strong close. For one between US$24 and US$24.50, the price finds itself not obstructed by a support/ resistance zone. Secondly, from a fractal volume analysis point (green histogram to the right of the chart), prices can also advance easier between the prices of US$23.90 and US$ 25.15. There are two edges derived from this data. A significant fending off the low range from US$23 to US$24 will make a strong point for higher timeframes if this month closes above US$24.25 and a bullish tone for the upcoming week.”We placed a trade (green arrow up), sharing that data in real-time in our free Telegram channel, and our predictions came true. Consequently, we took partial profits on Friday at US$24.80, based on our quad exit strategy.Silver, the big picture:Silver is more than fifty percent below its all-time highs. In relationship to gold, it is the most undervalued precious metal with an excellent risk/reward-ratio. As a safe haven wealth preservation tool, it is also the most undervalued investment opportunity compared to bitcoin, which trades at US$50,000, slightly below its all-time highs. In the price zone right now, we find below US$25 silver to be in a low-risk entry zone with a desirable risk/reward ratio.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 4th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The Bitcoin train left the station

The Bitcoin train left the station

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.09.2021 13:31
Some of these sub-trends are:El Salvador is about to integrate bitcoin as a legal tender.The Cuban Central Bank is working on rule implementation for the use of bitcoin.Venezuela is for a while now using crypto to fight hyperinflation.Iran has dabbled with bitcoin usage.Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, BNY Mellon, and Goldman Sachs have been moving aggressively into the crypto space, both in acquiring actual exposure to Bitcoin like purchasing Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust shares and investing in solutions for their firms.Hotels around the world start implementing bitcoin payments as an option for their guests.So, governments, banks, and corporate businesses are in. Who does that leave out?BTC-USD, Daily Chart, What is the holdup?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 31st, 2021.In charts as well, it can be observed that participation has changed trading behavior. After three legs up and a 72% up move, bitcoin, as seen in the daily chart above, is not getting rejected from the big 50k mark. With an eye on the yellow box, one can see that despite the extended move, multiple tests of the highs, and a resistance zone based on transactional volume, bitcoin clings to the top of the range for a mere eleven sessions. Any bear attempt so far has been met by a counterattack of the bulls. It is a far cry from typical bitcoin trading behavior.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Slowly churning:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 31st, 2021.Stepping up a time frame, we see a different picture. After five consecutive steep green bars up, a Doji formed that typically is a breather and a sign of uncertainty. Consequently, it invites bears to step in aggressively for a low-risk entry to push prices quickly lower. Especially noteworthy is that a fractal volume analysis (green histogram to the right of the chart) provides for a strong distribution zone at US$ 49,250, typically an edge bears to lean on as a support for their efforts to push prices lower. All in all, typical behavior of bitcoin in a situation like this, but much slower than usual. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, A healthy trend:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 31st, 2021.Again zooming out to a larger time frame, the monthly one, we can see that bitcoins latest up-move over the last year and a half has merely produced a single initial leg. After a minor retracement, we are starting to form out the early stages of the second leg right now. Consequently, the underlying bullish tone in lower time frames is natural.We have chosen a logarithmic chart presentation for a better representation of the actual percentage moves. Consequently, we can make out that, measured by past performance (orange directional lines), a projection for a much higher price level is to be likely.The Bitcoin train left the station:Speculators bought at US$3, professionals at US$3,000, and big business at $30,000. This train is in motion now, and it would take a powerful force to stop it. More likely, it will stop at fewer and fewer train stations and become harder to board from both a psychological and trading perspective. Do not wait for this to turn into a bullet train with fewer low-risk opportunities.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|September 1st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver is a real purchasing power

Silver is a real purchasing power

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.08.2021 17:24
You get bombarded with financial terms and economic and historical theories that make the mysteries of the market even harder to decipher. In effect, market workings aren’t as difficult to understand. They are psychological in nature and, when left alone, regulate themselves quite efficiently. We mean to say that without outside interference, the market is like a breath, and prices go up, sideways, down, sideways, and up again. It is a pendulum from averages to extremes and again returns to the mean. Once interfered, things get out of whack. One such interference was the abandonment of the gold standard. It served as a limitation to the discretionary monetary policy. It prevented extremes, prevented the economy from running out of breath. Now, silver is a real purchasing power.What do we mean by that? When fiat currency gets a regulating hand not by a free market but the meddling of politics trying to micromanage a market mainly through narrative, manipulation of the psyche of market participants, restraints are out the door. Human greed is taking over and worse, the ego suggesting that we can control an entity like the market with a degree of variables so high that any intervention is speculation at best. Such failing efforts typically turn markets sour..What this means for you is that unnatural extremes are at work, affecting your portfolio disproportional.Easily, an illusion is created to be fooled that one’s monetary gains in the market are plentiful. However, the reality is that when comparing your percentage gains to the actual purchasing power of what this money buys you, a rude awakening is guaranteed.When looking at your monthly expenditures for basic needs like living costs and food, it is astounding why that narrative has not found its way into the news yet. What is real is what precious metals like gold and silver are buying you now and in the future. A change of thinking is necessary to think in real purchasing power and not in percentage gains on fiat currency advancements.S&P 500 in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Too clean:S&P 500 Index in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 28th, 2021.The weekly chart of the S&P 500 above shows how unnatural the growth of the stock market is. Typically, in a self-regulating market, you will find no such clean up-drift. Why would all these companies have doubled in value in a time of economic crisis? Printed money flowing directly into the market has more than doubled the index value in less than 18 months? We would call this rather an upward market crash, where your purchasing power loses value. We are watching the lower green line of the linear regression channel for a price violation. It would indicate a confirmation that exuberance has come to an end and an early indication for watching larger time frame silver entries after a brief steep decline.Monthly Chart, Gold/Silver-Ratio, Ready for an extra boost:Gold/Silver-Ratio, monthly chart as of August 28th, 2021.Another indicator we have an eye on is the gold/silver ratio. We entered the early stages (orange line) of a ratio level where silver might be turning. Consequently, silver could be gaining momentum towards gold. Should prices reach the red box, we aggressively look for a smaller time frame, low-risk silver entry spots.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Bullish between the lines:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 28th, 2021.A monthly look at silver shows a decisive breakout from a multiyear sideways range. Exhausted after a 159% advance, silver is trading within a range again for more than a year. We first had a double bottom, followed by a double top to define the range, and right now, a triple bottom showed strength. This strength could prove to be very significant if held through this month. We identified two essential details as well. For one, the white dotted line shows higher lows on the range lows, indicating strength. And secondly, prices did not return towards the mean(blue line), indicating directional strength as well.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, A bullish tone:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 28th, 2021.Zooming into the daily time frame, we can see that we have entered into a short-term, low-risk advancement window after Friday’s strong close. For one between US$24 and US$24.50, the price finds itself not obstructed by a support/ resistance zone. Secondly, from a fractal volume analysis point (green histogram to the right of the chart), prices can also advance easier between the prices of US$23.90 and US$ 25.15. There are two edges derived from this data. A significant fending off the low range from US$23 to US$24 will make a strong point for higher timeframes if this month closes above US$24.25 and a bullish tone for the upcoming week.Silver is a real purchasing power:Precisely 50 years ago, Richard Nixon gave up the gold standard. And greed got yet again hold on to the market. We find these extremes in the stock market unsustainable and investments into the precious metal sector to be a prudent hedge for balancing your REAL purchasing power. Probabilities speak against a long-term outcome that human nature finds its way naturally back to the mean. More likely, we crash as we have in the past. A scenario that can result in a rude awakening for the many who trusted in narratives well-orchestrated. Most follow their intuitions to hold on to outdated paradigms at a time when buying insurance in the form of physical precious metal investments is one’s safest bet.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.By Korbinian Koller|August 29th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Important patterns for silver

Important patterns for silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.08.2021 22:43
It might be different this time around because the housing market isn’t your best bet as the earliest warning signal. With possible hyperinflation on the horizon, the housing market as a “money to commodity” transfer might be lagging.Consequently, we must look at the Russel 2000 first:Russell 2000 in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Early warning signals already present:Russell 2000 Index in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 20th, 2021.What also might be different is that typically, greed changes to uncertainty and uncertainty changes to fear. It means that markets trade up, then sideways, then down. Be alerted this time that human nerves are already frail. People struggle to make ends meet, and the limitations due to Covid have strained personal lives. It could mean that we might not see a typical roll-over, but rather an exuberant top and a sharp reversal from greed to fear without the usual sideways reaction time.The monthly chart above shows what’s typically called a blow-off top from a very steep, sharp move up (from US$966 in March last year to US$2,360 in less than twelve months, a 144% move), that could collapse anytime. The double top formation right now could very well develop in a down move. Weekly Chart, Gold to S&P 500 comparison, Quick recoveries in troubled times:Gold to S&P 500 index comparison, weekly chart 2008-2009If we see a sharp market decline, precious metals are typically drawn down due to margin calls needing to be covered by freeing liquidity from this sector. However, once gold and silver find their bottom, they tend to rally early out of which a more robust and longer-term uptrend can emerge.The weekly chart above shows that in the last market crash in 2008/2009, S&P500 prices fell dramatically and dragged gold (blue line) down as well. But then gold turned up from its double low in late October and early November 2008, way earlier than the S&P500, where prices continued to decline for another five months.  Gold to Silver comparison in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Gold, a leading indicator to silver:Gold to Silver comparison in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 20th, 2021.Another unique pattern is the delay between the gold to the silver move. When gold breaks out, it takes a while till silver follows, a great way to time ones’ positioning into the silver market. With silver providing more bang for the buck (=percentage moves), it is an ideal trading instrument to, besides holding it physical long term, trade it as a “booster” within one’s wealth preservation portfolio.The chart above shows how gold breakouts are followed by silver breakouts with quite some time delay. Consequently, gold on the longer-term time frames is a leading indicator for timing silver entries.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, waiting for the signal:Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 20th, 2021.Regarding timing, we see gold as the leader within this next turning point, and as such, silver is timed alongside once gold has shown solid confirmation of a larger time frame cycle long entry.That being said, we would want a gold price trading above US$1,815 in September and then prices of silver building a low-risk entry pattern on a weekly chart with prices above US$23.23 for long entry considerations.You will find more detailed silver entry setups for September coming up in our future weekly chart book publications.Important patterns for silver:We wish market play would be as simple as providing support and a resistance line, simply stating “enter here at…, and get out here at…”. Many try to make you believe just that, but this chess game is more complex and requires market observation. With your family’s future at stake in exceptional times, we find each minute given to market education time not wasted. We try to support you in demystifying the markets and hope you find your profitable patterns to identify low-risk opportunities.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Russell 2000, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Your low-risk option is Bitcoin

Your low-risk option is Bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.08.2021 11:42
Bitcoins low risk from a trading perspective:Short-term traders appreciate volatility. Bitcoin is liquid and not choppy. A long-term trader’s biggest fear is six sigma events. Consequently, any time the market is closed, more significant holdings are at risk of surprising news resulting in gap openings. Professionals go as far as to close out positions that are not in the green yet on a Friday after a trend-down day. The statistical fact is that on Mondays, market reopening, the downtrend is likely to continue. We have just recently witnessed that phenomenon in the flash crash of the gold market. They cannot take such weekend risks easily. With bitcoin trading 24/7, it is a much risk-reduced investment tool.Bitcoins low risk from a fundamental perspective:Any centralized instrument is attack-able. May it be by technology or legislative. We had times of gold being confiscated, even illegal to own.In the recent trading behavior of the precious metal sector, we can see that it might not be wise to put all your eggs in the golden basket alone.Bitcoin/Gold comparison, Weekly Chart, Bitcoins relative strength towards Gold:Bitcoin/Gold comparison, weekly chart as of August 17th, 2021.Like with everything else, it is wise nevertheless to keep an eye out for a few pitfalls. One of them being a misrepresentation of bitcoin measuring against a fiat currency. With fiat currency losing value, it is more accurate to compare against gold. The chart above shows how bitcoin gained strength towards gold and, as such, notoriety in its value.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Adapting to hurdles:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 17th, 2021.Another essential part of keeping bitcoin your low-risk wealth preservation of choice is adapting to its unique trading features. Bitcoin is deceiving with its significant retracements-grabbing stops for those too greedy, and once it turned it is hard to get in as bitcoin speedily advances steeply. What is essential here for the trader is not to be insisting on a time frame, but rather be on the lookout for a variety of time frames to find low-risk entry spots and profit-taking target zones.It typically remedies what we call the emotional yo-yo effect. Market participants feel at ease when the bitcoin market declines to say to themselves: “I knew bitcoin isn’t worth a thing.” Days/weeks later, when bitcoin turned sharply and advances steeply, they find themselves in a state of a feeling of “missing out” in disbelief of the significant move they just missed.The daily chart above illustrates bitcoins behavior in this aspect—quick steep advances represented in Heikin-Ashi charting format (color green). In addition, we can see on the standard deviation cloud indicator how bitcoin is compared to most other instruments, able to be suspended to extreme deviation for extended periods. The last turning point up produced a sixty-four percent move up in less than a month.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Prepping the trade:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 17th, 2021.In our last chart book published, we posted a chart with various likely future price movement scenarios. Now, we are expecting a high likelihood of the second scenario of A (white line) to unfold. The daily chart above describes this scenario from last week now in more detail.We enter a low-risk entry, at the supply zone of US$39,450 to US$41,240. The fractal volume support zone is only of interest to us, with prices declining from tops between US$50,875 to US$47,230. Your low-risk option is Bitcoin:Bitcoin, which by the way, is not that young of a market anymore, gets a low rap also because it caused a whole movement of other seemingly decentralized altcoins. At the mass internet adoption, we have seen a similar effect with penny stocks that went to zero, giving fuel to critics. Thirty years later, we do not have to ask you if the internet itself is of value. We see the first steps in motion of a mass adoption of bitcoin as well. Your risk is now listening to critics’ unfounded doubts over facts that point clearly to a future with a very high probability of bitcoin taking a central role in the financial market worldwide.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 17th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, the value price spread

Silver, the value price spread

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.08.2021 13:39
The value regarding a concerning future is more represented in prices for gold and silver stocks, which weren’t as dramatically affected as they are in more meaningful selloffs. We also encourage the reader to google 1-ounce coins or 100 oz bars of Silver on eBay to find physical acquisition prices not to be reduced as they should be. For 17 months, the spread between physical and spot price in Silver is now present. This means buyers are willing to purchase at an exuberantly higher premium than the paper price.With no indications of fundamental reasoning that justifies paper prices going down, we find risk reduction to our physical holdings. Risk being our most dominant concern is as such more to the side this being a spread between value and price, and as such, we have added to our exposure on a physical level finding this to be a buying opportunity.Looking at trading “paper precious metals prices”, either exuberant emotions of traders and/or price manipulation I present. Hence, we still see a pretty risky environment. While we see a possibility of even lower price levels, such trading behavior is temporary. Typically, extreme states are short-lived.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Don’t get rattled:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 13th, 2021.The debate about the possibility of market manipulation in the precious metal sector is exhausting, to say the least. While we understand a possible frustration of market participants this to be the cause for losses, it is yet another reason for emotional behavior in market participation which we extremely discourage no matter the reason for triggering. Emotional behavior does principle-based find no place in market play. It clouds the mind and limits the ability for proper trade execution.Gold is the big brother to Silver and is used as a barometer for the health of a nation. It makes Gold political and should be reason enough to find possible strong forces to influence such a barometer. But this should still be irrelevant to the principles on how one allocates money in speculative spot price plays.Keeping one’s emotions in check is one of the best ways to ensure a chance of a positive outcome on a series of one’s bets.The daily chart shows that last Friday’s price action was the precursor setup for the exuberant move when Asian markets opened for the week. Friday’s close (see 1) at the day’s lows, after a strong down trending day near a significant supply zone (see2), weakened this support. It took little pressure to open the flood gates for a self-perpetuating motion. A chain of stops got triggered when markets opened for the week. Once the rubber band was stretched, we had a quick V-shaped bounce for most of the previous down move.This down move was followed by the typical small range indecision sideways day. Prices advanced modestly on Wednesday and again sold on Thursday. It is now the focal point to follow price behavior for a possible retest near the week’s lows zone.We are looking for a possible aggressive entry on a half-size position size. But we will only expose capital if a supply zone is hit with speed to take advantage of an action/reaction principle. Should the price steadily but slowly decline, we will not engage in the markets from a long perspective. Daily Chart, Gold in US-Dollar, Silver relatively weak:Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 13th, 2021.Another reason why we are relatively conservative in taking a long position right now in Silver is its relative weakness towards Gold.A look at the daily chart of Gold above reveals that the price bounce within this week was nearly double as strong as the one of Silver (see 1/2). Gold’s price decline on Thursday was also a lot more modest. As such, we are not in a hurry to expose capital. We rather trade a possible turning point reactionary after price confirmation.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Silver, the value price spread:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 13th, 2021.But it isn’t our concern at this point, where speculative short-term entries on spot price trading in Silver are to be determined. What we want to point out is the value stretch. An extreme example would be the fact, that one ounce of silver is enough to feed a family of five for 38 days in Venezuela right now (equaling 3.8 million Bolivars). It is foolish and extreme to argue, “oh well, this is in Venezuela, and something like this could never happen where I live.” Moderate, which in our opinion is the way to go, is thinking in insurance terms and low-risk opportunities to purchase such an insurance, Silver.The larger weekly time frame already indicates that we might be at an entry opportunity for just such a positioning of physical Silver for a long-term wealth preservation perspective.Prices have held a bit above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Recent price low extremes are within the last thirteen months’ sideways range extremes from US$21.66 to US$30.14. With the relative weakness divergence to Gold, a decline towards a 50% retracement level would spell “opportunity” to us. In general, from a large time frame perspective of a multi-year hold, physical silver acquisitions at spot price levels here, irrespective of the premium to be paid, seem decent to us in the entry range between US$20.70 to $23.75.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The big picture counts:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 13th, 2021.Where clarity cements itself is on the monthly timeframe. One can make out how substantial the move up from last year’s lows at US$11.64 was. On top, the price retracement from this year’s highs is proportionally harmonious. Most likely it’s nothing, but just taking a breath before the possibility of a trend continuation.Supportive to this bullish picture are two significant fractal volume analysis support zones (1,2), right below current price levels (see histogram to the right of the chart).Silver, the value price spread:It is essential to differentiate market speculation and wealth preservation regarding engagement into the silver markets.We do not claim to have a crystal ball to see clearly into the future. Still, when joggling with numbers, it is hard to believe a statement that all is honky dory. That the economy is sound, and that Federal Reserve policy and money printing aren’t having any adverse effect.We have seen irrational trader behavior over and over again. With the ego’s domain on insisting on being right and a lack of accepting responsibility for losing trades, emotions get out of hand pretty quickly. Minds cannot find reasons for prices declining. Promptly a dam can break, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is in motion. We urge you not to participate in further confusing, more emotion triggering mental debates. Avoid letting rage run rapidly. Value price spread opportunities cease to exist for those individuals tied in emotional frictions and frustrations. Take a step back and examine sound fundamental reasoning for your longer-term holdings and extended multiple-decade wealth preservation opportunities.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 13th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver holds its value

Silver holds its value

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.08.2021 10:54
With a stagnation of Silver’s supply through mining and recycling over the last twenty years, prices are forced higher by any expansion in new applications of Silver. We see expandable markets for silver use in water treatment, flexible displays, the pharmaceutical industry, 5G communication, RFID (Radio Frequency Identification Devices), nanotechnology, silver oxide batteries, high-performance engines, functional clothing, and solar technology.The most decisive influencing factors of the future regarding innovation are:Development speed.Reduction of size in electronics.The increased need for data transfer speed in the communication sector.Obviously, 5G has nearly scratched the surface in its possibility of offering new markets to hip-pocket to this wireless edge.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, A prosper future:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 6th, 2021.These long-term stabilizing factors are already seen in price development for the longer-term investors. A look at the monthly chart reveals a clear direction to the upside. And in our humble opinion, we are only in the infancy of this trend establishment.In addition to solid fundamentals, we bet on high probabilities, and one aspect is historical pattern repetition. The chart reveals the actual possibilities from the larger picture where we have a small bullish pattern over the last two years within the larger view framed that supports continuous growth. While wealth preservation is our primary focus, we see quite some potential also for wealth creation in this specific case. Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Treading water but not for long:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 6th, 2021.As much as smartphones, TVs, LED Chips, and consumer electronics as a whole will push the demand for Silver forward, in the short term, patience is needed. Market manipulation in the silver and gold market and daily allocation rotation between the precious metal sector and Bitcoin, are hedge mechanisms for the larger players. They adjust their bets and time their entries. Consequently, making it cumbersome for the smaller retail players to position themselves. You find support in our free Telegram channel from professional traders who maneuver their different time frame allocations through those rough waters with success.The weekly chart provides some clarity for this volatile sideways market. We can make out that Silver made a massive first leg up-move (from US$11.64 to US$29.86, a 157% advancement). In the second part of last year, Silver traded in a range from roughly US$22.75 to US$28.25. This year that range got tightened from US$24.50 to US$28.25. While we established supply zones, we still are within a sideways trading range for over a year now.Fundamentals and regular trading analysis elude this price behavior. Clearly reflected in an exuberant difference between spot price trading and physical purchase prices for Silver. Markets aren’t clean or scientific, and with prices attacking the US$25 level and still a possibility of a retracement towards the US$23 to US$22 level again, investor sentiment could dwindle.Nevertheless, we are far from discouraged but are aware that we live in extraordinary times and that patience isn’t just a virtue but, in this case, needed to be part of a wealth preservation strategy that has solid, rooted legs within physical silver ownership. As such, should prices decline, we would find that a buying opportunity once more.  Gold in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Timing, watch for Gold:Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 6th, 2021.What has become more evident within the last three months is that Gold’s leadership role has a dramatic effect on Silver. Money flow between the two metals and various hedge strategies have had a strong impact. Almost a blockage by Gold stopping Silver’s efforts to run dead in its track. We advise closely watch Gold’s development for entry timing of silver positions and only when all elements fall into place to pull the trigger. Even the nicest silver setups seem to dry out quickly if Gold isn’t willing to lead the move.Some of the most durable minds get weak if you are sitting duck for over a year with a buy and hold/hodl perspective. It is that psychological reason that we have seen too often traders give up and exit a long-term position right before they take off that motivates us to rather position build. We use a quad exit strategy where the last part of a position possibly survives retracements, and throughout a year, many of these runners pile up and build a long-term position that’s risk-free and has the potential to be part of the second leg up.Silver holds its value:The research consultants from Metals Focus make a reasonable claim. They expect nothing less but a multiplication of silver demand over the next ten years. Reasons are not just an increase in demand for existing applications of Silver but an expanding growth rate of new fields of application. We see this in alignment with the principle fact of Silver’s unique specific properties. Consequently, there are no alternatives of substitution. These unique facts of Silver’s provide the additional fundamental stability that we, as wealth preservers, welcome in our long-term speculation to use Silver as a wealth preservation and wealth creation tool.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 6th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, World Reserve Currency

Bitcoin, World Reserve Currency

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.08.2021 12:26
World Reserve CurrenciesThink of it this way. The most crucial factor for any investment is its risk. The second most vital factor is potential. We can extrapolate a risk/reward-ratio from these two factors that most traders seek to evaluate if a trade is worth taking. With technical analysis as a supportive tool, risk can be assessed relatively easy, but where guessing gets more challenging is the actual potential of Bitcoin and its target price.Using basic principles of total possible market evaluation, Bitcoin would address the absolute largest possible store of value market a world reserve currency. We are talking hundreds of trillions of dollars.How realistic and probable is the likelihood of Bitcoin dominating the store of value market, competing with Gold and fiat currencies, real estate, and bonds?Well, ten years ago, Bitcoin was geeky and held in a community of idealists. Now it is worth one trillion dollars in the store of value concept. That leaves room for a factor of 100 or more multiplied by today’s Bitcoin price as a potential target. So far, Bitcoin was able to rise from a few bucks to nearly US$65,000.Recently, institutions have started buying into these investment vehicles. Consequently, confirming that after more than ten years, Bitcoin’s geek times are over. Now imagine the possibility that governments would begin backing their currencies not just by Gold, but also by Bitcoin. Then, we could easily see a Bitcoin expansion on a much larger scale. Institutions just wet their beaks, and with a final wave of individual investors likely, we see quite a potential to a bet on Bitcoin that is supported both from a fundamental perspective and from the technical side.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, The tide has turned:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of August 3rd, 2021.A look at the dominant monthly chart clarifies that Bitcoin is possibly on its way to initiate its second leg up from a large time frame perspective.Bitcoin had a stunning first leg up from March last year. In April this year, the advance slowed, followed by a steep decline in May. Nevertheless, prices closed above the 50% retracement Fibonacci level. June was a month of uncertainty and resulted in a small sideways bar. In July, bulls gained dominance again and formed a bullish engulfing pattern. Anybody who sold Bitcoin short in June is now holding a losing position! Prices as a whole, when trying to push below the 50% retracement level, got rejected, as seen by the extended candle wicks to the downside. So far, prices got halted at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Probabilities speak slightly in favor of a continued up-move versus a bear dominance for August.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Neutral to up:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of August 3rd, 2021.The view of the weekly Bitcoin chart is a bit more neutral. While bears certainly were stunned that in less than two weeks, Bitcoin impressed with a forty-five percent advance from US$29,296 to US$42,614, their typical push of price below US$40,000 was successful again (see white circles).  Price is now trading at the upper rim of the core range (yellow box).What seems to attract the price like a magnet is the price level of US$35,623 (see open and closing prices near this white horizontal line). Fractal volume supply support zones for low-risk entries are US$37,300 and US$34,340. With the next distribution zone resistance near US$47,000, these short-term plays have good risk/reward-ratios.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Low-risk continuation opportunities:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 3rd, 2021.The daily chart confirms that we are in an entry zone worth devouring for possible low-risk entries for reloads. After a triple bottom, prices reversed in V-formation strongly followed by a breakout through a directional trend resistance line.What proves a non-typical move through the entire range is the speed of only 12 days and the overshoot through the range top resistance line. Now, fractal volume support provides for good support below the price. We anticipate another push to the upside, starting between approx. US$37,000 and US$39,000.The key here is psychology and size, which means if you had some entries near the low of the range, with profits taken and runners remaining (see our previous Bitcoin chart book), then reloading here with a small size is just fine. After all, you are already playing with the market’s money. If you missed the first 45% move and are struggling with “fear of missing out” emotions, these higher-risk trades are not for you, since Bitcoin is known to retrace much more before a second significant move. We often receive questions on how high Bitcoin might go. E.g., “what’s your target”? Here are a few principle-based answers. No one knows the future. Each individual trade is meaningless since it is random.Bitcoin has a history of successful, great risk/reward-ratio plays.Bitcoin speculation inherently holds the largest total addressable market potential there is.By now, Bitcoin is an established store of a value asset class.Bitcoin, World Reserve Currency:In short, Bitcoin looks to us like an iceberg. Little is obvious above sea level, and immense potential submerged below. With risks calculable and potentially enormous, we find ourselves in a win-win situation. With the use of our quad exit strategy, one can minimize risk and possibly eliminate it shortly after entry (exiting with 50% position size for small profits). Half of the remaining position size we target near six-figure numbers. If today’s headline should become true, one doesn’t need to worry about where to exit the rest. Why? The original investment most likely has grown by a factor of a hundred and is your new currency to purchase things.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|August 3rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, the race is on

Silver, the race is on

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.07.2021 16:35
Official records show the US owns some 8,133 tonnes of Gold. While the official number of China’s holding is lower, a fair guesstimate is that China holds roughly 14,500 tonnes.Fintech and IT Benchmarks 2021 research found that nine in ten central banks are feverishly working on digital currencies. Who will have immediate trust to exchange all their currency nest eggs in a brand-new technology? Even Bitcoin, which has proven itself in its ‘sector,’ is allocated not more than one to fifteen percent in the most progressive funds.It can also be assumed that China, which has been working on digital currencies since at least 2014, has the most advanced development in its projects. Meaning, we could expect a possible shift in world power.These and many more facts point towards a physical acquisition of Silver at recently reduced prices in the Silver market to be a good insurance play for wealth preservation.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, What has happened since last week?Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 30th, 2021.We posted the grey section of the daily chart above in last weeks chart book publication with the following text: “We have strong resistance above us (red horizontal box). In addition, the yellow line represents the simple 200-moving average. Probably the most observed moving average, and as such significant in technical analysis. Consequently, we expect prices to decline from there and providing a low-risk double bottom entry near the US$25 level. This would allow the reader ample time to compare their findings. Compare your charts and trading system with our approach to plan a possible trade setup. We are fully transparent and as such, feel free to ask questions in our free Telegram channel.”Prices followed precisely our anticipated moves and allowed us to post real-time in our Telegram channel a daily trading signal at US$24.53 on July 27th and a weekly trading signal on July 28th at US$25.175 to go long the Silver market. Fear not; this doesn’t mean you missed the boat if you weren’t able to enter the Silver market just yet.Let us have a look at the weekly setup and possible entry points: Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Low-risk entry:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 30th, 2021.If you look at the weekly chart above, you will find a trade entry near US$25, offering a long setup with enough room towards US$26 to get the trade financed (risk-free, see our quad exit strategy). Though the price struggles at US$26 (see the fractal volume analysis histogram showing a distribution zone near that price zone), we are confident this entry is worth a shot.What can also be found is a very similar oscillator divergence (b) like last time price touched the up-sloping green trend-line (a). While price moved down, the turbo (yellow line on Commodity Channel Index) went up. In addition, the stochastic (with setting five) also shows similarly an oversold setup slightly below the 20 mark (green circles).Evidence supports that price might retest the price zone near US$25 with the next weekly candle opening. This allows again for a low-risk weekly entry, should you not be positioned yet. Hence, it’s prudent to watch the early days next week for a possible low-risk entry spot.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The big picture, Silver, The race is on:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 30th, 2021.A closer inspection of the monthly chart provides compounding evidence of the long-term bullish trend in Silver. Recent price development for a possible turning point is supported through multiple technical analysis facts:Price bounced from a harmonic Fibonacci level.Price bounced from the 15-simple moving average, which is a significant average for this time frame (bright green line).Bears are struggling to force prices lower after a significant double top near US$30.A sequence of higher price lows along the mid-line of the Linear Regression channel (blue line) warrants a bullish tone after the significant up-leg from US$11.64 March 2020 to US$30.09 this year.With this much evidence of a possible second leg up being underway for much higher price levels than smaller time frames illustrate, we are aggressively buying into lower time frame low-risk entry opportunities.Silver, the race is on:We have no clue how governments will try to hold on to monetary control and power. History shows that they always had a trick up their sleeves like confiscation (this is why we prefer Silver over Gold since Silver is less likely to become an illegal commodity to be owned).We rather avoid the risk based on “the early bird catches the worm.” Bitcoin carries the risk of becoming unlawful since it is relatively new in the mix. Gold is so highly priced that soon even small denominations will become less accessible for everybody. Silver, as of now, seems to fit the bill the best, both in wealth preservation and wealth creation.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 30th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit

Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 27.07.2021 10:56
Once in a high likely entry zone, like the daily sideways channel on Bitcoin over the last weeks, the questions arise:Will prices break higher or lower?If to buy, when and where to buy?How much should I risk?BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit, What has changed since last week?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021.The daily chart above shows what has changed since last week’s chartbook release.A week ago, we wrote: “In the daily chart above, you can see a possible turning point in the making. We would not be surprised if prices penetrate the range violently to quickly reverse, creating a wick, as it has in the past (white circles).”A good plan was created, and the markets matched our expectations. But how were we able to end up with six long positions that all produced already booked partial profits? Let us explore the answers to the three questions asked earlier.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Will prices break higher or lower?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021.Answer to question 1: No one knows for sure in which direction a channel breaks, but one way to stack the odds in your favor is trading across multiple time frames. If you get signals within a short period for monthly, weekly, daily (yearly) time frames, the likelihood for a reversal just got stacked in your favor.We got a yearly signal entry on July 18th and a weekly entry signal on July 19th. A daily entry on July 20th followed. On July 21st, we were filled on yet another weekly and a monthly setup long for Bitcoin. And the next day, on July 22nd, we had yet another daily long signal.This entry frequency across all time frames in a very short time gave us confidence that the turning point had a high probability, and indeed, prices turned. We already were able to take early profits through our quad exit strategy to eliminate risk and book partial profits (all entries and exits were posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel).So, in short, you do not have to worry if you employ various systems for sideways markets and trending markets and trade all time frames; the worry gets taken off your shoulder by a self-regulatory system.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, If to buy when and where to buy?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021. cAnswer to question 2: Take every low-risk entry point as you would typically, even though you feel uncomfortable with them coming in such a short period of time. You will need a quad exit strategy or a similar exit strategy to reduce risk quickly.We posted about two dozen of these more significant turning points live in our Telegram channel over the last 3.5 years with a hit rate above eighty percent. No need for greed, though. Simply exit your targets, as usual, to mitigate risk, as we have.The chart above shows the actual values of our entries and exits so far. We touched the upper bound of the channel and have now still five units exposed to the market. That is more than one full trade size-wise, with the advantage now that these remaining parts of the trades are psychologically untainted and easy to let ride further should a true trend continuation on the larger time frames unfold.Two more points are noteworthy. All entries came within less than a week. And more than half of the total position size gets cashed in on the first burst up within a day. It is this low-risk exposure and risk elimination in a brief period of time that we are after. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, How much should I risk?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 27th, 2021.Answer to question 3: Assume a maximum of ten trades simultaneously, which reduces your typical 2% maximum risk per trade to 0.2% per trade on total investment capital. The idea here is not to leverage or pyramid, but to increase odds and minimize risk for a more significant turning point.This means you do not want to have a more extensive total exposure at any time of 2% of your total investment capital of correlated trades. Why? A 27% loss is about the breaking point of systems where you can still recover from a loss. Remember, when you lose 50% on a position, you now need to make a 100% gain to be at break even. You do not want to mess with this principle being stacked against you. There is a near 100% certainty of 13 losses in a row in a thousand sample size. Take these times two percent, and you find the logic of why the “maximum 2% rule” is sensible.Looking at the chart above, you can see why this aggressive entry behavior is almost necessary with Bitcoin. Once in motion, Bitcoin is hard to stop and moves without a breath through the entire range within a week. Later entries are higher-risk trades.While Bitcoin typically retraces quite strongly, we are confident that we might see a second leg coming shortly. We do not trail stops at this time any further than towards break-even entry levels.Bitcoin, low-hanging fruit:It is tough to step up to the plate and that with size, after a more extended period of drought of trades. And yet exactly this is one of the best ways to make money!It requires confidence, a lot of focus, discipline, and a clear, refined rule set. In the case of the above-described scenario, it is the self-regulating aspect of the trading system by trading through various time frames to identify a high likely turning point. While each trade is low risk, the sum of transactions and, more importantly, the tight time interval of occurrence of entries guides towards a higher likely probability of prices to move through a reversal phase. It is imperative to back and forward test one’s systems if it is in alliance with this principle. We have found that in more cases than not, it is and, as such, encourage you to have a look if our methodology might fit your trading system as well.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, the exception

Silver, the exception

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.07.2021 11:28
We highly advocate to never throw good money after bad money and only use Anti-Martingale strategies. However, the rare situation that Silver finds itself in right this moment allows for adding paper plays to your physical silver holdings. The reasons are as following: While the spot price dipped below US$25, physical acquisition prices held relatively steady. This stretch between spot and actual Silver purchase prices shows an imbalance that works like a rubber band effect. As such, we would even be as confident to say this is still a physical acquisition of silver opportunity.First and foremost, recent silver price drops shouldn’t cause you to sell your physical holding. Secondly, it is worth considering taking on small position-sized spot silver trades to leverage one’s physical holdings.Fundamentally thinking: Has anything changed?Are supply chain discrepancies fixed?Is the economy on solid grounds?Has money printing stopped, as the FED Balance sheet hits a new all-time high?FED balance sheet as of July 21st, 2021. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve (US central bank) has hit another all-time high as FED president Jerome Powell keeps the printing press rumbling despite spiraling inflation. Just last week alone, total assets rose by another US$39billion to US$8,240.5billion. This is equal to around 37% of US’s GDP.Do not be deterred by temporary price imbalances, but look at the larger picture and the necessity of some wealth preservation insurance.Gold/Silver-Ratio in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Stretched and ready to snap back:Gold/Silver-Ratio, daily chart as of July 22nd, 2021.It isn’t only the “stretch play” between spot and actual physical silver acquisition price that is an edge on silver entries right now. The Gold/Silver-ratio also has had a recent run-up in price, where Silver eventually will have to catch up to its big brother Gold. The daily chart above shows how the “stretch” between the two precious metals rose from a level of 62 to 73 over the last six months. An imbalance extreme that will have to return to its mean (and beyond) at some point.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver, the exception, Buying zone opportunity:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 22nd, 2021.If you give the up-sloping green buying channel a look at the weekly chart above, you will find that each time price penetrated this zone, a sturdy leg up followed. You will find a histogram of fractal volume analysis to the right of the chart. It illustrates extended bars, meaning good support, at price levels between US$24 and US$25. You can also find an indicator divergence on the “turbo” (thin yellow line) on the Commodity Channel Index oscillator (indicator below the volume bars).With the round number of US$25 showing good previous support for price reversals, we are confident in a longer-term play to be engaged at these levels. As contrarians, we take entries at the lower part of this up sloping bull flag. Consequently, possibilities open up to finance trades at higher levels. In addition, we are already positioned if prices break through the upper resistance line (red horizontal line).  Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Good timing for risk reduction:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 22nd, 2021.The daily chart provides the opportunity to fine-tune one’s entry. Consequently, we stack our odds one more time and reduce risk. Silver prices already reversed from US$24.80 levels to the upside, and we posted real-time entries for this trade in our free Telegram channel. We use our quad exit strategy to reduce/eliminate risk early on.A closer look at the chart above shows that this first attempt might not be successful right away for follow-through. We have strong resistance above us (red horizontal box). In addition, the yellow line represents the simple 200-moving average. Probably the most observed moving average, and as such significant in technical analysis.Consequently, we expect prices to decline from there and providing a low-risk double bottom entry near the US$25 levels. This would allow the reader ample time to compare their findings. Compare your charts and trading system with our approach to plan a possible trade setup. We are fully transparent and as such, feel free to ask questions in our free Telegram channel.Silver, the exception:Things that are hard to do are most of the time the right actions in trading. Doubling up at a time when the hard thing was to honor your stop does not reduce your cost average. Even though, your broker makes it sound so alluring, instead it increases your risk massively. And yet, this 100-year cycle has dealt us right now an unusual card. Times require us to pay extra attention to making the right moves not to get train wrecked.The stern action right now is to be a contrarian early enough to hold cards or, better said, physical Silver before it will be unattainable. This allows for exceptional moves, but not by adding more risk. Instead, by identifying unusual opportunities in alignment with timing and not insisting on old paradigms. There is no shame in easing into this with prudence and small position size. Ignoring exceptional circumstances and procrastinating might become a costly path of action. We invite you to our free Telegram channel to ask questions of any kind to form a self-directed opinion to take care of your financial future actively.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 23rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, FED balance, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, reinvent yourself

Bitcoin, reinvent yourself

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.07.2021 11:12
The weekly snapshot taking isn’t picked at random.Each trade should have at least three timeframe components.A trade setup time frame where the edges get stacked, and risk/reward is determined, with targets and a stop level.A time frame higher than the setup timeframe, which needs to confirm trading direction. If you have a long entry set up on a daily chart, but the weekly chart has a downtrend of price, this setup is invalid and should therefore not be executed.And an entry time frame is the next lower time frame below the setup time frame, allowing for more precise entry timing and stacking odds to minimize risk.For example, suppose you are a position trader with a typical holding period of 2-4 weeks. In that case, you are looking for a trend on the weekly chart. Find a setup on a daily chart in the direction of that trend. And fine-tune the entry on the sixty-minute timeframe.This makes the weekly chart a part of even the largest time frame market participants and day-traders should not ignore its trend, hence our choice for weekly publications.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Monthly time frame for direction:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 20th, 2021.One of the best ways to reinvent yourself, meaning to get in a proper neutral state, is finding a relatively quiet trading spot within the 24/7 Bitcoin trading environment. Or even better, turn your real-time data feed off, so that the charts can not stimulate you with movement. Start with the largest time frame from your triple time frame set up and get a sense of the long-term direction (sideways, up, steep up, down, steep down) and only consider setups in the time frame below (the setup time frame) that follow this direction.In this week’s chart book, we take as an example the monthly time frame for a long-term Bitcoin position. Bitcoin, reinvent yourself.We can see on the monthly chart above a clear long-term bullish note on Bitcoin. In addition, we see good support based on our overlaying two Fibonacci retracements. In retracement A from the absolute lows of the latest strong up-leg from March last year, we get good price support. From the second measurement of the pure breakout leg through US$20,000, we have already had a bounce with a doji indecision bar of last month. Consequently, we are looking for long setups only on the next lower time frame, the weekly chart.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Weekly time frame for setups:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2021.Having identified the monthly time frame to a bullish trend on Bitcoin, we wouldn’t consider even a beautiful short setup since we insist on all edges stacking in our favor. This already cuts our entry horizon of possibilities in half.The weekly chart above shows an entry possibility on low risk near prices on the bottom of a sideways range right now (yellow box). This ten-week trading range between US$30,000 and US$39,000 has substantial fractal volume support, as shown in the histogram on the right side of the chart. We also find previous price support (see a green horizontal line). In addition, prices trade at the mean, also a typical reversal and support spot (yellow directional line). BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Daily time frame for execution:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 20th, 2021.The weekly chart time frame planning sets the tone for our daily calls. A daily review for what execution setups we would be looking for and, most of all, filtering out any trades we are NOT interested in.  See our daily call methodology. We post these daily calls for various asset classes daily in our free Telegram channel.By focusing on what not to do, we avoid the blue car syndrome and use a tool to reinvent ourselves.In the daily chart above, you can see a possible turning point in the making. We would not be surprised if prices penetrate the range violently to quickly reverse, creating a wick, as it has in the past (white circles).No matter what methodology you use in fine-tuning your entries and reducing risk, right now is the time to pay attention.Bitcoin, reinvent yourself:The neutral mindset isn’t the only aspect of trading that calls for a daily reinvention. The mind that observes is a different one than the mind that executes trades. The observer evaluates, compares, and debates, necessary to find edges and build systems. The executioner must follow a clear set of rules blindly and can’t afford debate. Last-minute evaluation creates stress and an unwanted reach for intuition-an aspect not valuable for a counter-intuitive environment.Consequently, this means a scheduled daily routine where one reinvents oneself repeatedly to be a valuable tool in market participation or otherwise; the vast sea of choices within the market swallows you and exploits the lack of discipline.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 20th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, a new way to think

Silver, a new way to think

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.07.2021 15:33
For example, let us assume grocery prices have increased by 33% within the last twelve months. This would mean that if you had US$150,000 in your bank account, they would now only be worth US$100,000. But you rarely think this way. Usually, you always take your currency as the base and instead think that grocery prices went up.What is required is to compare values. This is especially essential when it comes to wealth preservation. Let us assume you have a 401k. What this means is you have your value stored in the stock market. The stock market is highly overvalued. And you get for your stocks and bonds dollars at maturity. Hence, you own something expensive, but you receive possibly little purchasing value in exchange. In other words, you are exposed to risk.If you would like to add something to your long-term investment plan, you should look for value compared to what you already own. You should purchase cheap value. And Silver is a good bet.S&P 500 versus Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, History repeats itself:S&P 500 versus Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 15th, 2021.Starting from the left on the above monthly chart comparing the S&P 500 versus Gold, the stock market began to explode in 1995. While the stock market had a bubble build up tripling in price in the following six years, Gold lost 33% of its luster. Eight years later, the picture was reversed. Now Gold had run up three hundred percent, and the stock market was cut in half.As of late, we see a similar picture. While the Gold market is trading sideways to down, the stock market had another substantial seventy percent run-up. From a technical perspective view, this run-up has characteristics of a blow-off top. We expect a reversal and would not be surprised to see the stock market losing 40% or more and, in turn, Gold nearly doubling.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Bet on the strong horse:Silver versus Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 15th, 2021.Gold is the leader in the precious metal sector and enjoys popularity in wealth preservation, but we find Silver’s price development to be the more aggressive one. If you look at the weekly chart above, you will find Silver pushing stronger towards another leg up than Gold has over the last eleven months. Hence, we suspect Silver to outpace Gold by percentage in the next leg up. Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Fifty/fifty and rising:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 15th, 2021.We can make out that Silver broke out of a multi-year sideways range on the monthly chart above. It moved substantially, building the first leg last year and building a one-year-long bull flag, which is about to resolve itself.As of right now, the odds are only 50/50 for Silver monthly prices to rise, but if prices hold current levels, these odds can change dramatically within the next two weeks. A price close above US$26.07 by the end of this monthly candle will make us an aggressive buyer in August.Silver, a new way to think:One way to illustrate how deep the thinking in currency reaches is the phenomenon of the 99-cent store. The illusion that anything below a dollar is cheap created an empire (99only).Another one is the abnormal behavior of the markets in the denomination units of the currency at 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 dollars, for example. Below each of these units, value is perceived cheap, and above these increments, value is expensive. Consequently, stops are placed closely near these figures. Meaning it shouldn’t be underestimated how deeply these behaviors in relationship to currency are rooted. It requires proactive reconditioning, training, if you will, to think, in other units as a benchmark. You can use ounces of Gold or Silver and even Bitcoin. Practice this new way of translating cost and value to you, and you will have a heads-up to procrastinators who hang on to an old paradigm that does not actively reflect a measurement tool translating their wealth.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 15th, 2021|Tags: Gold/Silver-Ratio, low risk, S&P500/Gold-Ratio, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, stay on course

Bitcoin, stay on course

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 12.07.2021 14:07
We post live entries and exits of trades in our free Telegram channel . We are not doing this to encourage shadow trading since, in principle, one should not trade another person’s trading system. This free service is provided for confidence-building, especially when jittery markets like right now tempt amateurs to stray from their approach. Confidence to use it as a confirmation tool when your signals align and provide a discussion board to share doubts and ask questions in difficult times.Don’t let Bitcoin get away, it has a high probability to take off soon.Bitcoin is going through a rough patch of building a bottom. When inherently volatile Bitcoin gets squeezed into tight sideways ranges, low-risk entry points get harder to execute. Over time, there is no directional follow-through, and a trader’s confidence gets weary. Typically, this leads to a low probability of being exposed to the final push-through move. One quickly can accumulate losing trades now trying to chase or otherwise catch a trade with a different than usual entry approach.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Cyclical probabilities:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 11th, 2021.Why are we warning to keep focused here? Looks can be deceiving. Most find Bitcoin less in the limelight right now. Do not underestimate Bitcoins’ explosive volatility! The weekly chart above shows Bitcoin at precisely the same week in July a year ago. A similar picture is presented. A ten-week congestion zone of price uncertainties and battles between bulls and bears. Then in less than a month, prices shot up by 36%. We were followed by a quick retracement, not even retesting breakout levels. The rest is history with a steep push to US$64,895, a 560% move.In other words, we saw from the week of the 13th of July last year a more than 6x move out of the blue.Who says this could not happen again this year around?BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Anything is possible:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 11th, 2021.No one knows the future, but we know that Bitcoin is a highly cyclical and seasonal trading vehicle. It would be nothing less than foolish to rule out Bitcoin moving quickly again.All it takes is a surprise news item, and the picture of the market can change.The chart above, again a weekly picture, shows a similar high volume fractal support zone (see histogram to the right side of the chart). Again, battles for seven weeks now between bears and bulls, with a likely high point of resolve within reach. When there is a trading zone with long candle wicks, there is a chance that both bears and bulls experienced losing trades getting stopped out. At this time, confidence can wane, and it is at this time, staying on course is critical. Plan your trades and trade your plan.S&P 500, Monthly Chart, Stock market blow-off top:S&P 500 in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 11th, 2021.But cyclical reasons aren’t the only edge considered. We stack a minimum of twelve edges before we consider a play and look for low-risk entry points. The monthly chart of the S&P 500 index shows staggering advances over the last twelve years. What is different in this final leg up over the previous fifteen months is its size. The price has nearly doubled. In addition, you can find the absence of a significant retracement. Also pointing towards a possible blow-off top is the steepness of the angel of price advancement (see while lines, the final stretch to the very right is much steeper versus the previous legs up).While prices have continuously revisited either the twenty simple moving average or the forty simple moving average (turquoise line), the recent price shoot-up has stretched far from these averages. What goes up must come down. Should the stock market surrender some of its profits, money could likely flow towards Bitcoin again.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, stay on course:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 11th, 2021.A final look at Bitcoin from a monthly time frame perspective shows a possibility of a harmonious continuation pattern. Bitcoin seems to find support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. In addition, it gets fractal volume analysis supply support (green horizontal box). The candlestick wicks to the downside of the last three months indicate support, and prices get rejected from lower levels. So far, and this month’s candle isn’t finished printing yet, we have a smooth rollover turning point in the making.Bitcoin, stay on course:We recommend not to experiment with a different approach to the markets when you are in a rut. Never follow other people’s recommendations as a reason for making a trade. Use principles only as reasons to stack your edges. Follow as close as possible a prefabricated plan you made for executing your trades to be emotionally uninfluenced by surprising market behavior in real-time. When in doubt, stay out is also a term that comes to mind, and it is undoubtedly always a good decision to reduce position size when unexpected losing trades make you feel uneasy. Use any methods to keep your confidence and coolness to accept the risks when exposing your money to the market.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 12th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, by endurance, we conquer

Silver, by endurance, we conquer

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.07.2021 11:56
We consider wealth preservation the most important one right now. Unfortunately, this very long-term play has its tricky part since it encompasses large cycle thinking and planning. The principle being the longer the time frame, the harder to predict. As such, it is wise to give more weight typically to one’s fundamentals in addition to one’s technicals. We find one aspect specifically significant. We all know that money has been printed to a large extent throughout the world. Why aren’t we in hyperinflation yet? Yes, we get a lot less bang for the buck in the supermarket, but it seems modest in relation to the currency dilution. After all, from all dollar notes ever printed in more than a hundred years, half have been printed in the last 18 months.The answer is that due to the unusual pairing with Covid, money hasn’t reached the market yet. It hasn’t circulated. It hasn’t diluted yet. People hoarded money, and the actual effects of inflation will manifest with this delay until people spend money again.In other words, once public confidence is regained, it might fuel economic problems. Consequently, we are now positioning in Silver ahead of the storm.Gold in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Watch out for Gold!Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 8th, 2021.Over the last year, Gold was mostly outperformed within the precious metal sector (Silver, palladium, platinum). Consequently, we have a close look now at the sector leader. Once Gold gets going, it could easily be the last domino falling to cause a chain reaction for Silver running wild, fast, and furious.Why with a vengeance? For every ounce of Gold mined, 7 to 9 ounces of Silver are dug out of the ground. The price between the metals isn’t 1:7 or 1:9, though. Current price is 1:70 between Gold and Silver.This means Silver has some catching up to do, or at least when Gold starts to be moving, a stretch larger than 1:70 is not sustainable for an extended period.The weekly chart above illustrates that long-term entries in the gold market have a favorable setup regarding the risk/reward-ratio. It will come as no surprise if professionals are already in a silent accumulation phase. Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, A low-risk move lining up:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 8th, 2021.Timing, the trickiest part in investing, is favorable since we see Gold possibly moving over the short term due to Russia’s intent to buy 651 tons of the shiny metal within the next two quarters.Since more than one year, physical silver for purchase is only available with a hefty premium. Supply might continue to diminish since a US-based movement called “Wallstreetsilver” advertises to buy physical Silver. And “Wallstreetsilver” has an impressive growth rate signing up new members.The weekly chart of Silver above could unfold favorably in the sense that typically a brief overshoot through the linear regression line has led to a reversal in price direction (see white circles). With the additional fractal volume support slightly above US$25, we would not be surprised to find low-risk entry points within the next two-week time period. Recent swift up moves have also all started near the mean (yellow up sloping line).  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, When it moves, it moves:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 8th, 2021.To us, the question is always one of risk. Do we have a risk to the downside or the upside? Typically, this involves a pretty lengthy debate and evaluation. Rarely do point so many fundamental and technical data towards one side. We find not to be exposed to the physical holding of Silver (and other raw materials) the part of the risk. Holding fiat currencies without this counterpart insurance is, in our humble opinion, quite a risky business.The monthly chart above shows that Silver has a history that once prices are in motion, they excel explosively. We find the anticipatory accumulation of physical Silver to be less risk involved versus sitting it out. The US mint already had shortages, and we anticipate a more severe Silver shortage to be on the horizon.Silver, by endurance, we conquer:This isn’t the only time trading feels challenging, like exploring the pole. It is in principle aligned, constantly stepping into the unknown and dealing with terrain unfamiliar. Market participation requires a unique mindset and isn’t for the faint-hearted. Taking risks isn’t anyone’s game and needs special preparation as well. What is striking is that we are dealing with an occurrence that happens, maybe two or three times in a century. An inflection point, one could say, for wealth preservation. It is hard to make money, but preserving it is now an additional challenge. We find it no understatement when headlines state a “transfer of wealth.” Being aware of the magnitude of one’s action for the long-term effects of ones’ financial affairs is key to maneuver ones’ ship through the tricky waters.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 8th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin prices are deceiving

Bitcoin prices are deceiving

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.07.2021 13:10
With more volatility, the risk gets higher to buy breakouts, and the fear towards market participation when prices decline is magnified as well.Consequently, Bitcoin is, from an emotionally intuitive perspective, hard to trade.Should you struggle with such emotions while Bitcoin is right now to be attained at a bargain, consider the following:Bitcoin has had 15 corrections in 12 years, just like this one.El Salvador, Paraguay, Panama, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are heading for full Bitcoin adoption. Altcoins hype is losing momentum, and that money flows into Bitcoin.Gold and Silver prices are still suppressed by big players, leaving room for Bitcoin to move.Paul Tudor Jones increased his Bitcoin exposure from one to five percent.Bitcoin has a 200% annualized rate of return over the last ten years. Fiat currency’s value loss in purchasing power is rapidly increasing.Bitcoin reached a critical mass with its 150 million users, that could quickly expand into the billions.Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, Daily Chart, Performance versus insurance:Bitcoin in US-Dollar versus Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 6th, 2021.Gold outperforms inflation by about a percent over the last 100 years, but Bitcoin is necessary for your wealth preservation portfolio to not only have a basic insurance but also some growth. Looking at the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio daily chart above for the last 12 months, you can see how Gold flat lined over this period while an investment in Bitcoin more than tripled your trading capital.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Short term risk:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 6th, 2021.Bitcoin seems to struggle to cement price support above US$30,000, but the short-term perspective often gets overvalued. Price attempted three times to surpass its -1 standard deviation (white dotted line) but failed to reach the mean (blue dotted line).We have a significant supply zone based on fractal volume analysis near US$32,900. Still, it wouldn’t surprise us if Bitcoin temporarily breaks through its directional support (white directional line). And again, this is the very short-term daily picture. Let us have a look at a more suitable time frame for wealth preservation. A time frame that is immune to Bitcoins volatility. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Time on your side:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 6th, 2021.Large time frame guidance is, in principle, the most important one. Time perspective analysis gets greatly overlooked. Looking at the monthly chart above, you will find that upthrusts in Bitcoin are quite cyclical. Stars seem to align with a healthy retracement, the time cycle having matured and Bitcoin overall being ready for its second leg. Typically, this leg is the largest in size from a technical analysis perspective. As such, we find large time frame plays to be in favor both in risk/reward-ratio and in timing. In our humble opinion, six-figure targets are certainly within reach over the next 6 to 9 month period.Bitcoin prices are deceiving:Anti-cyclical purchases can provide for a massive edge. When you buy a motorcycle in winter, you can get up to thirty percent discounts. Purchasing Bitcoin on one of its typical declines is no different. Like watching for seasonal patterns, it pays to be a contrarian. Professional traders get accustomed to the emotional discomfort. It provides the edge needed to consistently come out ahead in one’s placed trades. To gain the required confidence stepping into the market at times when it is hard to press the button is planning and practice. Write down the reason why you want to own something. Start with paper trading and small position size to accept the risk and try to execute while your intuition would tell you otherwise. Over time, you will find these efforts to be handsomely rewarded, and it substantially changes your overall performance.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 6th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto buying opportunity, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, all aboard

Silver, all aboard

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.07.2021 16:20
We find various cycles aligning, both historical time cycles and price trading cycles. When inter-market inflection points fall in place in addition, we know sooner or later the train will depart.It will be of little consequence what final match will launch the rocket thrusters, but you do not want to be late for the firework.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Don’t miss out!Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 1st, 2021.There are times where you want to trade confirmed (late entries), and there are times where you need to be ahead of the curve.When we last year advised physical silver purchase at US$12.00, it took only two days until the spread from spot prices versus actual physical silver acquisition prices spread wide open. This spread reached eventually beyond a 25% difference. Quickly small denomination coins were sold out as well.The early entry provided a 150% gain compared to the multiyear range breakout with 50% gains. The significant difference is risk. A breakout scenario always carries inherent risk and on a typically already volatile trading instrument like Silver especially.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Early means low risk:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of July 1st, 2021.Furthermore, when silver moves, it moves quickly. If entry prices move away quickly, it represents a risk: the later your move, the more comprehensive your stop.The weekly chart above shows how prices doubled in just three weeks. Trading along with the crowd (confirmed late entries) isn’t the game, and the term “you snooze, you lose” comes to mind. With the physical acquisition comes a whole other bag of flees along. Nibbling at least on a small position size at an earlier stage might be the more advisable course of action. Should you then miss the train, you still have some skin in the game.  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Realistic projections:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 1st, 2021.From a large timeframe perspective, there are risks as well. With Gold trading at high levels per ounce and an evident demand of banks and other prominent players, Gold could become unaffordable for small retail investors. This would force typical gold investors to look for the next best thing, Silver.While many boast spectacular targets with precise numbers, we try to stay humble not to evoke unnecessary emotions (greed, fear of missing out), hindering trading. A simple study of second legs in Silver and related markets as a sum typically is approx. 2.3x factor of the first leg (US$11,64 to US$30.09). This suggests a good risk/reward ratio.Silver, all aboard:Our confidence about a substantial Silver move stems from the fact that historically news-loaded congestion zones break eventually for significant price changes. We find that both, fundamentals and technicals, point towards a second-leg development that could be nothing short of astounding in price movement. Physical prices will mirror that with a high likelihood of supply shortages and, as such, an even more volatile move where acquisition prices could be substantially higher than the spot price.In times of monetary uncertainties, holding physical Silver is more than just insurance. In our humble opinion more likely a necessity. It doesn’t have to be sizeable but should be present in your wealth-creating and even more wealth-preserving portfolio.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|July 1st, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, eighty percent rule based

Bitcoin, eighty percent rule based

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.06.2021 13:04
In short, what to do and when to do it is leveraged since you make a sizeable money bet, and your typical resource for such stress (e.g., intuition) is not just worthless but the worst choice in a counterintuitive environment. In addition, we use a tool called “the daily call” to plan ahead. The daily call is a strategy planning outside trading hours to gauge the market and lay strict rules of “what not to do” to reduce losing trades.It is these refined rule structures and plans that allow us to always stay calm when Bitcoin trades with its volatility nerve-racking around turning points for the unprepared. We see little alternative to catch important low-risk entry points for long-term trades like the one coming up right now for this digital currency.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, What happened since last week?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 29th, 2021.Opportunities are plentiful when it comes to Bitcoin. Which makes this sequenced rule-based behavior especially necessary. Our last weekly chartbook publication posted the chart above (left side with grey background). Less than 48 hours after publication, the assumed scenario manifested. It was this precise planning that allowed us an entry at US$29,176.3. We took half of the position off at US$31,804.3. Therefore, eliminated risk and locked in some partial profits (see our quad strategy). This trading method allowed for stress-free observation of the quick retest of lows following with wiggle room for the stop level. It isn’t clear if this was the ultimate turning point in this sideways zone that Bitcoin is trading right now. More likely than not, one of our efforts grabbing the lows of this range might succeed. If not, income-producing partial profit-taking pays for our efforts.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Long term entry validation:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 29th, 2021.A weekly chart analysis grants a view that monthly/yearly charts have now a confirmed weekly entry setup. Present is a low-risk long entry with lower price rejections set (see wicks in yellow ellipse). We would aim in more partial profit taking slightly below recent all-time highs. We would expect these highs to give way for prices to climb much higher. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, And the winner is:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 29th, 2021.It is an incredible feat to time, no matter how high a timeframe, a millisecond entry of a push of a button which might have significant effects on your future, and consequences materialize years from that little action of your finger. Such steps are far removed from a typical task where you shovel a hole in the ground and see with each stroke of the spate your results in real-time. In the familiar environment, cognitive aspects are aligned with intuitive physical behavior.But it isn’t the ‘doing’ that gets you rich in the markets, but rather good planning, little work, and lots of patience. Due to these circumstances, it is imperative to always look at the larger timeframes. This will create a much broader perspective and will help to not get lost in the casualties of Bitcoin´s daily volatility. Temptations that easily lure one in for overtrading.Observing the monthly chart, we find beauty in its simplicity. Prices trade above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Fractal volume analysis in addition grants support. And with this month nearly closing, we seem to be having two months showing wicks to the downside rejecting lower price levels. To us a setup for taking a low-risk entry at the beginning of July. Given that present levels hold till the end of the second quarter.If prices decline sharply before month’s end, all bets are off.You will find confirmations within our free Telegram channel, where we post all our market entries and exits in real-time.Rarely do stars align that nicely, yet we have found the mind again playing tricks, especially for easy trades. Without a precise rule-based sequence and detailed entry and exit planning, human errors are guaranteed.Why is it eighty percent and not a hundred? The market has too many variables to be tamed by a purely left-brained approach. It requires experience (=screen time), creativity, and some thinking outside the box to make the market give up profits consistently to the trader.Bitcoin, eighty percent rule-based:Why a tightly knitted web of rules is necessary is to be able to execute one’s plan. Have you ever wondered why you ran a stop or, numerous times in a row, betrayed your own plan? Simple! When too many question marks arise within the flow to commit to trade by actually pressing the button, it gets harder and harder to pull the trigger. Conflicts are eating away confidence. There is a necessity of a clear, sequenced rule-based event chain to act without hesitation consistently. We found that a well-rehearsed scenario with clarity to act in your own best interest is one way to step into this field of uncertainty and repeatedly act on your plan. The alternative is a bad relationship between a well-developed edge and the ability to act upon these edges. Most of the time, this causes human errors. Consequently, the edge is mitigated to that extent that one consistently loses money.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto buying opportunity, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The Silver island within CBDCs

The Silver island within CBDCs

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.06.2021 11:27
To us, the answer is quite simple. Money is personal. It feels inherently good to have cash in your wallet or under the mattress. It might be fun to some to have apple pay at a time of the iPhone craze, but do you want to give up on your privacy and a feeling of control over your savings at times of uncertainty. Change needs to be incentivized, and we do not see anything that typical card and payment systems haven’t done there already? In short, we know the stability of the inherent value and the historical proof of attraction of precious metals to outweigh any appeal central banks could try to entice us with. Our money is on Silver.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Physical purchase opportunity:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of June 25th, 2021Some countries already gave way to their cash due to hyperinflation. Even if you live under the rule of the mighty dollar, you can feel inflation with each grocery shop. Meaning there is a risk that the dollar isn’t so mighty after all anymore. Not everybody has that much wealth to invest in the housing market or real estate. Quickly your options diminish. With Gold being pricey and Bitcoin not being everybody’s cup of tea, our suggested bet on a physical silver purchase is not so far-fetched.The monthly chart of Silver reflects these assumptions showing a strong breakout from a multi-year sideways trading range. Recent behavior provides an investment opportunity since prices declined, and a low-risk entry scenario is unfolding.A physical purchase transaction for a long-term play has its obstacles, you might say. There is a premium to be paid over the spot price, and as such, it doesn’t provide quite as much transaction speed as the click of a button on a trade.Review our chart above one more time and enter anywhere between the red and green horizontal lines. You will find that you have an exceptionally favorable risk-reward ratio. More so if considering that we would only exit half of our position near the US$50 mark and expect the remainder to go much higher. The risk assumption is the unlikeliness for the price to penetrate much into the previous multi-year channel resistance (now support) of the US$20 mark.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Confirming the bull:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of June 25th, 2021Let us zoom now into the smaller weekly time frame. We find that the chart shows nicely how the strength of the multi-year breakout last year persisted. When you look at the neutral sideways zone, you can tell that it entails inherent strength. Foremost, we didn’t see a dramatic decline. Secondly, this sideways trading zone nearly persisting now for a year will make the next breakout to higher price levels magnify in both price and time duration. Clearly, another part of the puzzle why we see the US$50 level not only be reached but also taken out at some point. Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Tricky but manageable:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of June 25th, 2021.Silver spot price trading is a bit trickier right here. Volatility is high around options and futures contract expiry time. Typically, we fade momentum as contrarians. In these scenarios, we prefer a late confirmed entry to avoid the increased risk volatility early entry. The daily chart above shows the various stacked odds of support. We are sitting on a supply support zone (green box). In addition, the price is also above the simple 200-day moving average. Most dominantly, we are trading right at directional support of the lower rim of a congesting triangle (yellow line).The Silver island within CBDCs:Some might argue the lack of long-distance transaction capability with precious metal payment options, and rightfully so. We are not opposed to say Bitcoin, for example, within your wealth preservation portfolio. We are highly confident that history has shown that the stability of money and payment methods are all about trust. In time of the information age and shaky economic grounds, we doubt that individuals blindly accept their greenbacks, even if exchanged over time, to be transferred into bits and bytes. Especially if this means that every purchase is documented, and privacy erased. It feels too natural and too safe to be able to either carry or store at home your true treasures without a ledger at the bank.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 25th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin or bonds

Bitcoin or bonds

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 21.06.2021 23:35
One of the bigger doers is Ray Dalio. A principle-based manager of people and money with US$140 billion under management in his company Bridgewater Associates. Dario recently stated that he’d rather own Bitcoin than bonds. Do we need to say more?US Government Bonds 30Year Yield in USD, Monthly Chart, Where is it heading?US Government Bonds 30 YearR Yield in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 21st, 2021.A glance at the 30-year bonds over the last ten years shows a clear downtrend. We used a linear regression channel to illustrate this price decline. In 1987 bonds were trading at US$10 and have been declining ever since.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Strong up-thrusts:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 21st, 2021.A logarithmic representation of Bitcoin, on the other hand, over the same time span shows a continuous up movement. But that isn’t all. One of Bitcoin’s characteristic patterns is its strong up thrusts after retracements. This represents very favorable risk/reward-ratios, and eyeballing the figure scale to the right gives you an idea of the potential percentages of these up thrust gains. Thus, we find the recent retracement to be an invitation to participate in this market with low risk and, for the first time, ample confirmations from leaders on Wall Street. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, One or the other:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 21st, 2021.With prices moving away from POC (point of the control-white horizontal line), the rubber band gets stretched in this sideways zone of Bitcoin. The daily chart shows that two support zones are of interest to us, and we are posting our low risk entry attempts live in our free Telegram channel. Prices have just entered zone 1, and we positioned ourselves. Should this support fail to draw prices back to the US$38,800 price region (and beyond), we will again be aggressive buyers in zone 2.Bitcoin or bonds:The core problem is leverage. If you are well off, you have earned a level of comfort that provides little incentive to do the work it takes to familiarizes yourself with Bitcoin. The fact is that we are at an inflection point in history where a wealth transfer might be in process that leaves those reluctant to educate themselves out and diminishes their prosperity holdings. We do not share the belief in scarcity motivations. Still, We want to encourage you to consider that the recent increase of prominent players in the financial world stacking up on Bitcoin or, better said, getting public with their beliefs about Bitcoin after they stacked up might be the last time before this rocket is off to the moon.Consequently, this makes your wealth preservation much more expensive in the not too far distant future. As such, pulling up one’s sleeves to gain some more in-depth knowledge might result in data of what the fuss is all about. Thus, in our humble opinion, it is a strategically smart move.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 21st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver with a turbo

Silver with a turbo

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.06.2021 13:36
Recent trading sessions have driven Silver and Gold to lower levels. Still, Silver already shows relative strength within the precious metal sector. As a result, we might witness one of the last cheap points for adding to one’s physical silver holdings.Gold/Silver-Ratio, Monthly Chart, How much?Gold/Silver-Ratio, monthly chart as of June 17th, 2021.The Gold/Silver-ratio can help identify relative strength/relative weakness relationships between the two metals. Consequently, it is mighty helpful to guestimate which of the ones is moving first. Furthermore, one can time one’s trade placements. In addition, it is a barometer of the overall larger picture for long-term assessments from a fundamental perspective.A look at the monthly Gold/Silver-ratio shows that Silver is pushing against a support level, which, if breaking, could lead to a two-legged move, adding a 50% turbo boost to silver prices in relation to Gold (red arrows down).  Gold/Silver-Ratio, Weekly Chart, Trending down:Gold/Silver-Ratio, weekly chart as of June 17th, 2021.Now zooming in to the weekly time frame, we can see that the ratio is trending down. Consequently, Silver is catching up with Gold. Typically, once the ratio price meets the upper red regression line (yellow circles), it consequently declines.Trading in a triangle would mean that a lower white support line break could initiate a more volatile downward movement. Consequently, this would represent added turbo fuel to a more sustainable Silver upward movement.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Think long term:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 17th, 2021.Looking at the isolated silver price from a long-term perspective (monthly chart), we can clearly see the bullish consensus (bullish triangle in white lines). Moreover, the thick volume supply zone between US$22 to US$25 suggests that reaching US$20 once again has a much lower probability.Silver with a turbo:Your typical weekly market newsletter sounds something like: “Maybe up, but it could also be sideways and down is also an option”—a protective means never to be wrong for the author. More rarely, you will find extreme opinions which give a doomsday picture to hope five or ten years later, a market crash gets the author noticed, and if not, no one remembers what was said 5-10 years ago. Nevertheless, there are market wizards. Decades of track records supporting sound market analysis. Stanley Druckenmiller is such a genius with 30 years in a row producing an average of more than 30% profits return per year on his client’s money. More impressively, his worst year is still a double-digit number. When we heard him recently stating that the dollar would lose within 15 years its status as a leading currency globally, the hypothesis that motivated us nearly two years ago, starting as a permabull in our publications, felt confirmed. Another turbo in play. It is these puzzle pieces more and more now coming together that support our firm belief that inter-market relationships paint a picture where Silver could become the predominant shade of a futuristic picture of wealth preservation. In this context, we are aggressive buyers here for physical Silver in this temporary price dip.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 17th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoins’ actual value

Bitcoins’ actual value

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.06.2021 18:34
No hype lasts that long. What can stay this long is doubt, if not fear, about something new. Change is certainly something many are afraid about. You can touch Gold, build real estate, see land, and it all has history, but that history also includes in all tangible asset classes there to be times when it got taxed or seized.What we are facing now could be a larger cycle that one might intellectually grasp, but who does believe that we see times of hyperinflation and the dollar rendering worthless. Very few. Hope is a natural tendency of the human spirit to be trusted in at times of adversity.In our opinion, that is the only reason why Bitcoin is still so cheap. And herein lies the opportunity for each individual to still preserve their wealth and or create it.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Worthwhile a shot:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 14th, 2021Consequently, to our conviction that Bitcoin can not be thought away anymore, we took three low-risk entries after Bitcoins’ recent decline into the congestion range. We posted these entries in real-time  in our free Telegram channel. We took partial profits on all three trades to eliminate risk and by now have raised the stops to break even entry levels for the remainder of exposed capital.After news that Tanzania might join El Salvador in accepting Bitcoin as one of the main payment method methods, prices soared to break through the upper triangle resistance line. What was resistance has now become support. The most substantial supply zone to price is near the POC (point of control, most transaction volume at this price level).Another sign of strength is that at the last decline, prices only managed to go as far down at US$35,000, a far cry from previous US$33,000 levels, indicating strength.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Two bullish scenarios:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 14th, 2021Looking at the weekly chart, we can determine that Bitcoin now has cemented a nice double bottom slightly above US$30,000 (yellow line) after a strong down move. We find three high-volume nodes supporting price (green horizontal lines).Noteworthy as well is that the point of this reversal has happened right at the mean (white directional channel with blue dotted line). Consequently, we anticipate two scenarios (A, B) to be the most likely price behavior of the future. Should more fundamental data flow into the market supporting Bitcoins recently gained upward momentum, scenario A is expected to be found over the third quarter.If the bears would be temporarily successful, we anticipate them not driving prices lower than US$27,500. We would see price only briefly giving way to the downside to snap back up with vigor. BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Up, up, and up:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 14th, 2021What always reveals the fundamental forces at play and the leading guidance for a trader’s choice of trading tools/systems are the larger time frames. Examining the monthly chart, we can see the strength and direction where Bitcoin is most likely to head. Price turning at the midpoint of the linear regression channel is no accident.We see a high likelihood for this month to end in a green candle and consequently for July as well.It doesn’t matter where you look; the opinions are always torn into two camps for Bitcoin. Recent attacks of Bitcoin not being green due to its energy consumption provided for much debate again. We are not taking sides. It again seems more principle-based to view from a larger perspective why people put numbers on value output ranges of energies merely based on an emotional basis. Electric cars and wind energy were fought at their time just as well.Bitcoins’ actual value:As investors, we never have a sure bet. We try to stack the odds in our favor, and with sensible money management produce in the trades, we engage in more profits on the winning trades versus the losing trades losses. Bitcoin is no different! Don’t bet the farm and pick low-risk entry points. We do not think it to be wise to have extreme opinions in either direction. Or in other words, any form of emotional engagement in the markets is typically not producing favorable results. What we are empathetic about though is, that doubting Bitcoin on a fundamental basis is simply being ignorant of a vehicle with proven facts. Engaging in this market has its rewards for sure. It might turn out to be one of the better long-term trades in challenging times. Bitcoins’ actual value is yet to be determined by a future no one knows, but its credibility is unquestioned.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, there’s so much more going on

Silver, there’s so much more going on

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.06.2021 10:42
This means the environment where you can extract the financial gains to live a more free life is first squeezing you into a very unfree daily exercise, for most an unsustainable task.In addition, the only way to succeed is to overcome an endless array of obstacles. Setbacks are the norm, and most expect riches to come soon, but it takes experience to be a consistent trader.It is especially now, with Silver being right before breakout to new highs, essential to have one’s ducks in a row. Professional market makers are all in line to get their piece of the pie and make this market with all its potential not easy to trade for individuals.Monthly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Good risk/reward ratio:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 11th, 2021.We find the only way to consistency is by looking at the market always from a risk perspective. If risks are acceptable, exposing one’s capital is fair. The monthly chart above shows prices heading for the third time to the US$30 mark with a reasonable chance of a breakout. A fractal volume transaction analysis of the Silver market from March last year up to recent data shows a strong supply zone at US$27.50.If you take a low-risk trade near the levels we are trading at publishing date, above US$27.50, a reasonably tight stop can be placed below the US$27,50 support zone. Liquidating half of your position into the momentum of a breakout slightly above US$30 would eliminate risk. Consequently, a second partial profit target (another 25% of total exposed capital) near US$39 with a final target to close out the position at US$47.83, just shy of ATH (all-time highs), would create a more than favorable total risk/reward-ratio on this trade (=acceptable low risk for the reward). Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Various forces at work:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 11th, 2021.Zooming into the smaller weekly time frame, we can make out what forces are at work. Bulls and bears are at a tug of war, and both are defending their turf. It is hard to make out when the final attack at the US$30 mark will occur, with Gold also playing a role as the leader of the precious metal sector.Nevertheless, this chart shows the primary support and resistance levels and is supportive of our monthly chart assessment of a low-risk idea. With either the secondary channel supporting price right now or a few weeks ahead of the main channel lower trendline providing the support, we might have various opportunities for this play to pan out.Important here is to stick to one’s plan and not be deterred by real-time market behavior evoking emotions that are not principle-based in the alignment of our explicit risk control.We are sharing our attempts to place trades in real-time in our free Telegram channel. There, more importantly, you will find a community of professional traders exchanging their ideas, and you can find support for your way of market interpretations.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Anticipatory positioning:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 11th, 2021.While Fridays are typically days where Silver can give back some of their directional profits gained through the week, like everything, this is just a probability. While many make their bets on confirmed breaks, one gets more often a low-risk entry if acting anticipatory.In addition to the previously pointed out US$27.50 supply zone, the daily chart shows support near US$27.76. With stacked odds and relatively little distribution volume at the resistance zone at US$28.29, we gave it a shot. We traded more aggressively than usual towards a possible breakout.Only time will tell if these trades stay within income-producing profits or if some of these runners are getting rewarded on a different scale. But with a strong directional advantage (see the linear regression channel red/ blue/green and quite a few other edges as well), we are confident that sooner or later, recent highs in Silver will have to give way.Silver, there’s so much more going on:The only way to overcome all these hurdles is to seek out support. Do not hide your losses from your family and friends. Look for traders and, ideally, a mentor. Accept the steep learning curve and, most of all, the extended timeline it takes to become consistent in this business. Treat it like a profession with a business plan and accept a disciplined daily routine to come out ahead.Mastering oneself is the real task here. It takes self-responsibility, dedication, and sacrifice. One needs to accept that this isn’t a hobby but needs to become a career to work out in your favor. This is the only way to overcome the juggernaut you are up against.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 11th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin market, the ultimate enforcer

Bitcoin market, the ultimate enforcer

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.06.2021 17:52
The market doesn’t care. It isn’t budging to any of your moves. The market can evoke inappropriate responses on your side by depleting your financial security and self-confidence. This can have a similar effect for a trader in the situation of execution. They freeze. Another failure confronted with the shock of yet another stop level hit makes the speculator incapable of acting. They watch victimized how prices go way beyond their comfort level and planned exit price. Intimidated, they sit and might lose their livelihood in a single trade.This Bitcoin trend is worth the extra effort to face the enforcer.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, First things first, overview:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of June 7th, 2021To escape the ‘enforcer’, the most crucial factor is emotional removal. Markets trigger emotions, and the top-down approach on a quiet chart (not moving) is critical here. Whether you are a long-term investor or a short-term position trader, you always want to be on the side of the most potent force. The most significant player is the monthly chart´s direction.While recent events might dampen the mood if you are positioned in Bitcoin, the monthly chart above shows that everything is in a healthy order of Bitcoins directional expansion move. Bitcoin had broken a multiyear sideways range and advanced nearly fourfold after its breakout from the channel highs. It retraced by 50%, which is conservative for Bitcoin. A fractal volume analysis shows precisely at the same supply zone as the Fibonacci analysis support (green horizontal line).Should emotions have cooled off for participating in the Bitcoin market, then these emotions are deceiving. The retracement might have intimidated you, while with a fresh view at this chart, the professional trader should think: “Entries”. This month and maybe even the next month might represent a sideways market. More importantly be prepped for large time frame entries.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Making Plans:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of June 7th, 2021To stay emotionally balanced and independent of the market’s possible intimidating moves, it is best to be prepared with a plan.On the weekly chart above, you see part of one of our strategies of how the future might unfold. Once price penetrated the 18 simple moving average (red) prices declined swiftly.Right now, they creep up the 40 simple moving average (orange), but probabilities are in favor of a retest of recent lows near US$30,000. (= a break of the 40 SMA). While this price level is also equivalent to the neckline of a head and shoulders formation (yellow), we anticipate, after a swift spike through the 52 simple moving average to hold and prices (white dotted line), to advance from there.This leaves us with an entry zone near levels of US$27,000 to US$31,000, which we will fine-tune on a smaller frame at the time of entry. All our entries and exits are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Low risk first:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 7th, 2021Safety first is critical. In trading, this means risk mitigation at all costs. No one knows a specific level of entry where the markets will turn. Gladly you do not need to. What you do need is a methodology to protect your capital. Keeping your losses small in the case you are wrong. We use quad exits to ensure this risk reduction. The daily chart above shows a confirmation of our prior higher time frame assessments. As much as we are generally in an attractive long-term investment entry zone, we do not trade from a time cycle in a low-risk environment just yet.The bear flag formation with prices right below POC warrants patience to wait for time cycles to provide more low-risk entries in the future. POC = point of control = high volume node as a strong distribution zone.Bitcoin market, the ultimate enforcer:In the case of Bitcoin, the market isn’t the only intimidator. An accumulation race around the globe has ensued. Governments, central banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, large investors, and now you are all after the digital currency. Naturally, the big players throw every trick in the book at their opponents. Minor players quickly are squashed by altered chart patterns and unusual market behavior on all time frames.Therefore, what is required is a humble determination not to be intimidated out of this market. Certainly, a rare source of wealth protection over the following years, if not decades. We have managed by applying ourselves daily in analysis and research to extract fundamental data and technical principles that work as stacked edges in trading this complex market throughout various time frames. We share our findings in our free Telegram channel with full transparency. In addition, you will also find there our real-time entry and exit signals to encourage investors and traders alike not to be bullied out of this significant market niche. Consequently, being part of what we foresee as the biggest bull run in Bitcoin´s history.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|June 7th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, change of mind required

Bitcoin, change of mind required

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 01.06.2021 14:47
Too many players try to make the markets fit into their cookie-cutter technical analysis beliefs versus looking at the specific trading vehicles’ intricacies. While chart patterns could be blindly traded for the more significant part of the last century, many edges have dissipated. It is critical to accept that certain edges work for some time and then vanish. With the rapid changes of Bitcoin´s main trading and investing groups, a frequent change of mind is necessary. Only then will you be able to profit from Bitcoin’s stellar rise.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Directional trendlines work:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 31st, 2021.When back testing which elements of technical analysis are valid, it is essential to pin the findings to their specific time frames.The above daily chart shows that directional trend-lines for entries and stops are suitable.While typical, a top-down approach is essential, in this case, the daily time frame supersedes importance. It holds significance for shorter-term trades as setups and is an entry time frame tool for larger time frame players. Clearly an excellent time frame to start one’s investigations.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, High volume transactions as support and resistance:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 31st, 2021. bBitcoin eludes old-school technical analysis suggesting to draw horizontal support and resistance lines. Mainly due to the degree of volatility inherent from Bitcoin, amongst other factors.What suits this trading vehicle very well, though, is transactional volume-based supply and demand zones. As the daily chart above shows clearly, Bitcoin abides high volume nodes pointed out by the fractional volume analysis diagram to the right side where high transaction volume points are represented through horizontal white lines. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, First signs of life:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 31st, 2021. cLooking at last week’s chartbook publication, we find that prices have adhered to our expectations. After the double bottom near US$32,000 at the time, prices now moved upwards and touched precisely our upper bound sideways channel line marked in yellow near the US$41,000 price mark. An excellent point to take partial profits for those who established early entries. This represents roughly a US$9,000 advance or a 28% move).Since then, the price has declined to its high-volume node supply zone near US$34,000. There we took low-risk entries in the hopes of further price advances. All trades are posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel.We eliminated risk out of all entries by taking 50% of position size out after initial price movements in our favor. Again, we will take some profits off the table once the upper range boundary is touched near US$41,000.Bitcoin, change of mind required:Even more important than knowing what works is knowing what doesn’t work. Classical chartists will find Bitcoin´s behavior on breakouts, upper directional trendlines in smaller time frames, and Fibonacci extension targets on larger time frames to be performing poorly, to name just a few.We follow the principle of “never assume.” Never assume just because it has worked for a hundred years that it still does. Instead, do your homework. Make sure to check what still provides an edge and what doesn’t. You will be amazed how much of classical technical analysis has vanished. Getting these kinks out of one’s stacking odds tools and instead replace with true odds of newly found edges will make all the difference between a performing system and a frustrating journey of consistent losses.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 31st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, time is on your side

Silver, time is on your side

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.05.2021 19:00
Daily Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Income producing:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 27th, 2021.We were again able to profit last week from lower trendline entry trades by taking half off after the initial price moves in our favor (see our quad exit strategy). We overall lightened up on our positions near options expiry (5), since a possible more significant retracement is likely. Our reentry projections are US$27.38 and US$26.41.From a daily trading perspective, we are now stepping away from aggressive short-term reloading. Think exits versus entries! The above daily chart shows that principle-based entry density should be in the establishment zone of a trend and not when the world wakes up to Silvers directional run.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Just getting started:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 27th, 2021.While it is sensible to get modest with aggressive trade frequency on daily timeframe, the weekly chart is still bullish. At the beginning of this year, a double top in price was firmly rejected, and prices were forced back into range. Over the last two months, Silver has advanced enormously from US$24 to US$28. Two weeks ago, we had a failed breakout through a significant resistance trendline. This week prices managed to trade above what was previously resistance and has now become support. No need to cash in the chips just now! We see a bullish consensus confirmed.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Persistent strength:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 27th, 2021.Trustworthy guidance needs to be taken by the more significant player participation represented on the larger time frame charts. A look at the monthly chart shows volume supported buying. We can also see a strong supply zone below actual trading prices based on our fractional volume analysis at US$26.68 (yellow line). With this much focus on the precious metal sector and Gold coming to the forefront, we see Silver to rise into a stellar future in tech mid- to longer-term.Silver, time is on your side:We use a hybrid model of income-producing trading and long-term investing. We take partially initial profits quickly to mitigate risk. And we leave small portions of each winning trade exposed to the market and do not trail stops. Why no stops? The further one stretches a rubber band, the more extreme it snaps back. As such, in principle, trailing stops are a flawed methodology to protect profits. By taking partial profits early instead but leaving remainder positions exposed with only a break-even stop, the likelihood is that these runners survive significant retracements and end up in a trending environment to outpace any other profit-taking methodology. Result:” If you catch a long-term trend, the rewards are enormous.” In the case of Silver, this long-term trend has a very high probability. With the intent of wealth preservation and long-term investments, we find the Quad exit strategy contrarian to “hodling”, Martingale strategies, pyramiding, and any other high-risk approach the one to surpass typical expectations.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 27th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out

Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 24.05.2021 10:15
Yes, a trillion US-Dollar was lost last week in the crypto space, and yes, Elon Musk’s tweets influence Bitcoin that can make one weary or doubtful. More substantial, regulatory concerns got cemented by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell calling cryptocurrencies risky and talking about the implementation of digital currency. This aligning with Chinas crypto ban and their digital yuan release planned. The treasury department was putting a cherry on top of the worry cake, stating that any US$10,000 or more transaction value shall require reporting to the IRS in the future.These shakeup attempts are nothing new, neither are steep price declines. It is pretty common once new inventions start hitting the mainstream, prominent figures gain temporary influence with their opinions. Regulation is THE battle in the discussion about Bitcoin since Bitcoin offers decentralization. That is precisely the reason why bans and centralized digital currencies will gain neither the trust nor the attractiveness of use. In short, Bitcoin isn’t just here to stay. Bitcoin as usual, will after more significant retracements like the one last week, not just advance on a near term basis but also rise to new all-time highs in the long term.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Keep calm and keep trading Bitcoin:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 24th, 2021.Our optimism about Bitcoin’s trend continuation isn’t based on emotional beliefs but factual past of this volatile trading instrument’s volatility. The weekly chart above shows clearly that large retracements from significant highs are standard. It also indicates that consistently old highs are taken out, and a strong directional trend throughout the years has been persistent.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Up-Sideways-Down-Sideways-Up:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 24th, 2021.A common mistake made by market participants is perceiving the market in up and down moves. When emotions flare up in a substantial decline, one asks: “Where do I get in? What is the next support level?” Only in a “V” shaped recovery, an early entry like this is applicable. These “V” rallies are rare. The highest probability is that markets after steep declines or advances trade for a while sideways.Consequently, one doesn’t get a trophy being first. Instead one is sitting duck in a position exposed with time risk without movement. Typically, double bottoms and long stretched-out sideways movements following. As such, we see no urgency to buy into the Bitcoin market. Instead pick Your low-risk entry spot wisely without insisting on being right (=aiming to buy at an ideal low price). BTC-USD, Hourly Chart, Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out, When to buy?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of May 24th, 2021.While professionals might attempt to fade extreme moves, for typical long-term investors, it is a futile endeavor to try to “catch a falling knife” on a massive down day like last Wednesday. After all, who knows if Bitcoin was to turn at US$40,000, US$34,000 or US$30,000.In the above 60 minute chart, we illustrate how to time the following entry from a low-risk perspective. Low-risk perspective being the most meaningful perspective in our view.We had four legs down. Price got cut in half from near US$60,000 down to below US$ 30,000. Very likely, you are emotionally exhausted trying to pinpoint the lows in this ten-day lasting high volatility sale. On top, prices reversed in a “V” shaped fashion from an intraday point of view. They gained 41%. This was another emotional roller coaster. Within the white square these accumulated energies of emotions typically get released by the novice market speculator through entering into a long trade to find him/herself exposed at high risk.We find the very first opportunity that is reasonable on much-reduced size at the double bottom. Still, what we are looking for is an additional washout spike through the new lows set at around US$30,000. This would result in a hammer formation or other Doji-shaped daily bar. Consequently, allowing to then engage the following day with tight stops after bottom building. This setup might as well establish this week.Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out:In principle, two things would need to happen for Bitcoin to be endangered to not outpace any and all other payment methods.First, the opposing digital payment method would need to be limited in supply as Bitcoin is. Secondly, no central figure could be in charge of a system that is self-regulative.Suppose citizens would lose faith in either yuan or dollar as a payment vehicle, for example, due to extreme inflation. Why would the same people find instant trust in their digital counterparts freshly offered as their replacements?Bitcoins’ worth is principle-based. Principles being ultimate truths where one does not need to extend good faith and unearned trust but can lean on a truthful certainty. It will be this truth that will outshine all efforts to keep control.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 24th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Basel 3 the Silver bull

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 21.05.2021 16:12
Gold being the leader in the precious metal sector has a massive effect on Silver, and this is again another factor for our strongly bullish consensus.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Last weeks chart:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 21st, 2021.We published the green part of the daily chart above in our last week’s chartbook release pointing towards the consistency of the lower green regression channel line. With the additional transactional support supply line from our fractional volume analysis at US$26.85, odds were stacked. The astute reader took a low-risk entry below US$27 , the day after chartbook release.  The right side of the chart illustrates the target near US$28.50. This has been the 4th trade in this upward move that allowed for these low-risk market engagements. A part of time closing in towards Basel 3. Typically more significant retracements would follow after such an extension, but we continue to advocate the lower green line to be one for low-risk entries. Only because the situation with Silver due to Basel 3 is unique.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Acquiring coins and bullion:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 20th, 2021.The weekly chart above shows how Silver’s strength doesn’t ease even after a significant up-leg from March 2020. A bullish continuation triangle shows a minor trend within. Transaction volume has cemented a carpet of support below the price. It is again the lower green line that we find most attractive for low-risk trades (acquisitions). Just do not be deterred by the price difference between the spot price and the actual physical acquisition price.It would also come as no surprise if a triangle break would already manifest soon. Especially since US$27 has built itself out to be the significant volume analysis support zone for price.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Easily underestimated:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 20th, 2021.The monthly time frame shows how significant moves can get once the US$20 mark gets penetrated by price. We expect this time around for the price to exceed the US$50 mark. This because, typically, the length of the congestion zone before a range expansion directly influences the size of the following move.We would not be surprised to see a bull trend for many years to come. Doubters that find prices right now to be expensive will look back with agony why they didn’t grab some physical Silver when it was cheap.Basel 3 the Silver bull:A word of advice. Abnormalities like this bring with them changed market behavior. If you came late to the party or weren’t otherwise able yet to take advantage of low-risk entries, do not be discouraged. We mentioned market manipulation in our last two chartbooks. Banks have the resources to participate with an edge towards the market to get their desired physical acquisitions at a price that makes trading bumpy for the individual investor. Don’t bet the farm. Trade small size. Precision trading isn’t required for physical acquisitions since you do not aim to sell a week later.And do not use times like these to change your approach to the market. Generally speaking, you should not change your system when you struggle but either before or after market abnormalities. Confidence is the most crucial part of trading and investing. You do not want to jeopardize this confidence by altering your trading approach if your system might not have produced the desired results yet.Simplify if you feel you have to alter your approach with the toolset that you are familiar with. We are confident that even very small physical Silver acquisitions will make you smile down the road.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 21st, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, the beauty principle

Bitcoin, the beauty principle

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.05.2021 12:33
Bitcoin is for 14 months in a bull run, and we see future price levels take out all-time highs within this year. That is not all. When you look back through all time frames over the last twenty years, you will find Bitcoins’ trading behavior to be unusually directional. While most heavily traded market instruments trade most of the time in a sideways zone, any directional tools used in charting for Bitcoin come in handy. Bitcoin is also volatile and accelerates fast in its directional legs, not ideal for low-risk reentries with the conventional use of fixed indicator settings. Consequently, we will illustrate our termed “beauty principle” on moving averages in the following chart.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Thinking from the market’s perspective:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 17th, 2021.Looking at this year’s price action from a daily time frame perspective, we find support near US$30,000 at the beginning of the year and a low-risk long entry at a double bottom near the end of January. From there, the price explodes to the upside.A. Once prices trend higher and point A is identified as a significant low, we import a moving average indicator. We set it that the price precisely touches the indicator line. The settings turn out to be 52.B. Like A, another major low got identified, and again we import a moving average and set its settings for a precise price touch to the indicator line. The settings turn out to be 37.C. We enter the market once the price touches the 37 MA and the price bounces for an 8% move. Enough for generous financing if you use our quad exit strategy and walk away with profits with the rest position stopped out at break-even entry levels. In this case, we generously allowed this trade to be a small losing trade should you use a different exit strategy that doesn’t mitigate risk.D. Another extremely low-risk entry point provides a profitable trade of more than 28% if measured to the ATH, equaling a risk-reward ratio of over 1:55 with our 0.5% stop size.E. Like D, prices turn precisely at the moving average touch, and advances exceeding 17% could have been made (r:r 1:34).F. Shows that once both moving averages touch and flat line, the temporary trend is invalidated.We are trying to illustrate that thinking from the market’s perspective, being principle-based, provides better results. Better than insisting on the market price to bounce from random assumed settings as fixed parameters.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Visual harmony:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 17th, 2021.The beauty principle is wide span. Since the all-time high in April this year, the price has tapered off. Over the last week, the price decline has accelerated. While the most typical technical analysis was at a loss to identify the low-risk entry point near US$42,280 (we post all our entries and exits in real-time in our free telegram channel), a linear regression channel only based on user settings that made the point a and point b touch precisely these two market highs, allowed us to pinpoint this precision low-risk entry.At a closer look, you will find no help from TA tools like support resistance lines or transactional volume support, which was at a void Chanel at US$42k.Instead, you will find at point d exactly the same candlestick overshoot length through the bottom line of the linear regression line as on point c.Please don’t take our word for it. Experiment with this way of accommodating the market versus rigid methods in a fluid environment. You will find the beauty principle to be principle-based and very useful.  BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, the beauty principle, Room to go:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 17th, 2021.Let us zoom out to the bigger picture using a weekly chart. We can see that Bitcoin only had two major legs yet in this uptrend. Consequently, if the price closes within the sideways zone Nr.2 (red box) above US$44,500 by the end of this week, we have excellent chances for further price advances.Bitcoin, the beauty principle:What we termed the beauty principle isn’t only applicable to directional indicators but most technical interpretations. Inventors and, more importantly, interpreters of technical tools that manipulate the values a chart is made of (like price, volume, transactions, time, range) insist on strictly defined rules. They create, in a world of uncertainties, a tool to try to gain certainty. They support the ego’s need of being right. While this can help partially for confidence and the psychology of trading, it is, in our humble opinion, a limited way of trying to restrict a field that in principle has a vast number of variables and, as such, needs more room for interpretation. Instead of insisting on a rigid number setting of an indicator being matched by the market, it is much more useful to look back at the most recent event and instead adjust ones’ setting to the way it fits what the market did at that time. Ride the wave and let the market dictate your behavior versus trying to please the ego. This is much more principle-based versus hoping for the market to behave as you want it to. Especially knowing that the market does not care what you want in the first place.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 17th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver’s market manipulation is your way in

Silver’s market manipulation is your way in

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.05.2021 09:44
The only chance to participate in a rigged game and come out ahead is beating them in their own game. One way of stacking the odds in your favor is to recognize patterns within the markets, and market manipulation is just that, a pattern.We believe strongly that Silver prices will see new all-time highs by the end of the year. We also believe in a high probability for Silver prices to reach near triple-digit price levels. And we know just because one knows direction and targets does not mean one arrives at these prices with a position intact or a position at all.Here are a few examples of what we mean.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The minefield:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 13th, 2021.We tried to illustrate that a single event of chart characteristics could point towards volatility or otherwise trading instrument characteristics on the daily chart above. The sum of all variances of Silver events, although points clearly at aiming to discourage the investor and short-term traders alike. Typically the daily time frame is the entry time frame for longer-term plays like weekly and monthly time frame setups. It is challenging to find propper low-risk entry points. Here are the obstacles for the market participant to enter the market:dark cloud cover and bullish engulfing candlestick patterns are extreme reversal patterns typically much rarer in occurrenceeach range gets its highs and lows taken out which can be described “fishing for stops” (orange boxes)the sheer amount of yellow wicks shows the general volatility and challenges for low-risk stop placementconsistent pattern failuresfollow up day retracement levels of 70 to 90 percent are outside the normrare but extreme trend days irrespective of the market is trending or rangingJust to name a few. Silver in US-Dollar, 60 Minute Chart, But that is not all:Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of May 13th, 2021.Since our recent chartbook release about spoofing activities in the Silver market, we have been feverishly working on identifying various intraday market behaviors that are atypical to typical market behavior as a whole and the Silver market specifically. Our findings confirmed that individual patterns aren’t uncommon, but the sheer sum of patterns is definitely not normal.A look at the intraday 60-minute chart above, a time frame entry tool often used for daily and weekly time frame setups, is concerning:Every extreme gets faded.Reversal patterns are dominating the field.Previous days lows get gunned for stops.Ranges get spiked out for stops to be hit in both directions.Range expansions are happening in both directions.And all this by observing just a few days back. There is much more.Silver in US-Dollar, 60 Minute Chart, The cure:Silver in US-Dollar, 60 minute chart as of May 13th, 2021.So what can be done? Let us rather focus on solutions versus a minefield of obstacles. The most predominant patterns we found were volume and time-based. A market this thick can not sustain manipulation through the significant market hour activity of the world taking place. Moves getting artificially faded mainly before the Asian session open and the British market open for Silver. To protect your risk, you need to enter the market at the following time slot and counter fade: 20:30 EST to 21:30 EST. We found this time segment the one of least risk when used in conjunction with our Quad exit strategy, which allows for risk mitigation by taking shortly after entry half of the position of the table.The chart illustrates with green and red horizontal lines that at each day at this same time, an imminent move follows to allow for this first target of risk elimination to get hit. It also shows that volume increases at this point to substantiate a more real move versus the prior artificial fades. We also suggest trading small in size and instead build long-term position out of runners (again, view our Quad exit strategy).In addition, we advise against scalping and frequent intraday trading. Instead, we find stepping away from the noise and trading monthly charts to be an intelligent way to protect wealth. The most secure way of participating in the Silver market is to accumulate physical holdings.Gold in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver’s market manipulation is your way in:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 14th, 2021.Pick your spots wisely. Overtrading in minefield conditions is risk expansive. A top-down approach from a longer-term directional perspective should guide when to engage in the market. The daily chart above shows one such substantial directional support. When prices reach the green line again (linear regression channel), the 60 min entry strategy based on time of day (20:30 EST to 21:30 EST) and a keen eye on your volume bars is vital to participate in a low-risk manner to get a piece of the pie.One more thing! It is much more proficient to work with a volume-based support measurement tool (yellow line) for transactional support versus typical TA tools of horizontal support and resistance lines.Silver’s market manipulation is your way in:Market participation is an endless path of hurdles overcome and a honing of difficult to acquire skillset in a challenging profession. Market manipulation is as old as time. Complaining about it doesn’t benefit but your ego. Taking the role of a detective instead and examining the market with curiosity for its complexity of rules or, in this case, manipulated rules to then build in opposition a rule set that provides advantages for your market plays is a more proper approach.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 14th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The social value of Bitcoin

The social value of Bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.05.2021 10:14
Immediately you are an outcast from grocery store reward cards and retail loyalty programs. Add those 10-20% increased costs on your food and goods bills in addition to ramped inflation prices, and you are underwater quickly. We have outlived antiquary systems of antisocial payment systems. As such, we see Bitcoin prices further rising based on the apparent fundamental data and a world demanding a more social and more modern way of self-expression and doing business.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, No bear claw yet:Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of May 10th, 2021.It is not only crucial in fundamental data and the underlying story of a market to try to keep it simple but in technical analysis as well. Without clarity in the bigger picture, one shouldn’t attempt to trade smaller time frames. A look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin above reveals its strength within its uptrend.Breaking its range in October last year, a steep uptrend followed. In February this year, Bitcoin seemed running out of steam rejecting prices above US$58,000 only to see another run-up in March. The Doji candlestick formation in April finally gave the trend a pause. Classified as in indecision bar, it still showed some strength, with the lower wick part being, the longer one.The astounding aspect is that we have not seen yet in May the bears to seem to get a strong foot into the door. There has been only a brief dip so far. While the month is still young, for now the bullish indications outweigh a bearish consensus.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Another angle confirms:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of May 10th, 2021.Now zooming into the weekly time frame, the market shows no difference. With these extension levels, it is atypical that we see this length of a sideways breather in opposition to a stronger fade of prices and a more bearish dominance.Strong resistance zones are always ideal for some partial profit-taking (red box), and as such, we advocate our quad exit strategy. We wouldn’t take all chips off the table here, though. And we wouldn’t short a bull this strong either.Noteworthy here is the significant price level of US$55,510. Prices closing above or below this price level will determine if we are heading sideways or temporarily further down. BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, The social value of Bitcoin:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of May 10th, 2021. bAnother weekly view unearths more signals of strength:Swiftness and size of the recovery from the temporary dip (red and green line). The Bounce made it back above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels and prices are still trading between 0.5 and o.618.Holding extended levels of the standard deviation of considerable time (dotted lines with the mean near US$31,900)Prices trading within a significant support of a supply zone based on volume transaction analysis (yellow box)We are not saying that a breakout to new all-time highs is imminent. Prices most likely decline from here. We are saying that Bitcoin’s typical normal trading behavior expected strong fade has not matured in its expected time frame. There is inherent strength within the Bitcoin market that make price declines attractive buying opportunities and a continuous sideways movement a warning signal for possible higher trading levels to come within the summer.The social value of Bitcoin:Money is a means to express yourself. Most like cash because it is anonymous, instant, and a practical way to fulfill our wishes and needs. Is it really? Or are we living in a more modern world of electric vehicles and renewable energies? It isn’t entirely untraceable due to its serial numbers, and it is expensive. Cash handling is cumbersome, and any larger business has massive backdoor operations that are a security threat and labor-intensive. It is impractical for long-distance and just old-fashioned, so the planet needs resource-oriented efficient operations in all forms.Bitcoin isn’t just of social value, but it fits its times. It expands the freedom of individual expression, and it is planet-friendly with a low imprint. It is the future.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 11th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver eats doubt for breakfast

Silver eats doubt for breakfast

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.05.2021 09:39
The good news is: You do not need to know how the future unfolds to preserve your wealth. And Silver eats doubt for breakfast.Silver prices will continue to rise. Why are we so sure about this? Unlike most who try to gain clarity about how the future might look like, we instead eliminate all scenarios where Silver prices wouldn’t be rising. Even if you are not a specialist in trading fundamentals, by now, it intuitively feels just wrong that central banks put this much freshly printed currency into circulation. Historically, precious metals are the most common safe haven in times of trouble and doubt. This will be no different this time around.Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Last week’s chart:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021.In last week´s publication, we posted the above chart with this comment:“We identified the slightly higher probability of prices to advance immediately since we overcame a distribution zone marked with a dark green horizontal line, which now serves as support.”…and spot on we were:  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Like we hoped:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 6th, 2021.While these weekly charts might appear somewhat similar, something significant has happened. The following the daily chart shows this more clearly.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Resistance penetration:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 6th, 2021.Zooming into the smaller time frame, we can see the significance of last week’s price movement. Not only did the POC (point of control) support supply zone based on volume transaction (green horizontal line) get cemented by three rejected candle wicks, but the original breakout through significant resistance at US$26.55 all the way to prices above US$$27 paves the way to further advances.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, When to cash in some chips:Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 6th, 2021.While entries are essential for risk minimization, exits distinguish the good trader. They should be as such the true focus in one’s trading approach. Looking at the Gold chart above, the leader of the precious metal sector and as such followed by Silver shows a clear seasonal pattern. We identified a high probability for precious metal prices peaking in the first week of September and will, as such, take partial profits (see our quad exit strategy) at that time from our Silver holdings.Silver eats doubt for breakfast:Our mind craves certainties in an uncertain world and even more when predicting an unknown future. It is the process of accepting these uncertainties and applying principles of wealth preservation that supports the outcome of sound investment strategies.One of these principles is the process of elimination. We were asking if there is a scenario where Silver wouldn’t rise, which is much more fruitful than trying to predict a precise model of the future. We literally couldn’t come up with a scenario that would work against the Silver price advance over the long term.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 7th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin – Fail, Learn, Improve

Bitcoin – Fail, Learn, Improve

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.05.2021 10:33
The good news is: We still see Bitcoin to be the number one asset class in your wealth preservation portfolio. And this with a good chance to see higher prices in the near future.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Whatever works:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3rd, 2021.One healthy way for progress is to walk the road less traveled by and be independent of the good opinion of others. Stacking odds means backtesting any and all ways to find probabilities in your favor to stack your odds against the market. In Bitcoin, we found a high likelihood in specific trading patterns. The daily chart isn’t atypical for Bitcoin to produce the pointed-out price movement series (A, B, C, D, E) in sequence. You will find in comparing our lines not only similarities in percentage moves but also steepness of angles. In this case, our future projection is noteworthy because the distance between points C and D in the right side of the chart is much shorter than in the same white-lined picture to the left. This means a minor retracement – meaning a more aggressive step in of the bulls.What is also essential is that Bitcoin might seem to be ranging and indeed has large retracements but is trading in a wide range up-sloping directional channel (yellow lines), which further indicates strength. We conclude that a progression of price to the upside has a higher likelihood than downward movement and that a taking out of all-time highs is a possibility in store.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Don’t trust your feelings:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3rd, 2021.Another glance at the daily chart illustrates another principle we follow: “Don’t trust your feelings.” The linear regression channel indicates short-term drift elements to the sideways/downside. When Bitcoin isn’t advancing, it has temporary sideways periods of a few days where stops are taken out. Observing the market these days, one has the feeling of continuous downward movement. These brief periods resolve when the overall “feel consensus” is discouraged, in an upward jolt trend day.Looking at “a,” you find such a drift along the midline of the regression channel. We might see a few days following such a movement (similar to the past), but we advise you to look out for low-risk long entry opportunities not to miss a possible next steep leg up. The higher probability nevertheless is an immediate rise of price towards all-time highs as indicated in the prior chart. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Last week´s entry:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 26th, 2021.We posted this entry chart in our last week’s chartbook publication, and the trade matured nicely through the previous week’s price advances from our entry at US$49,000 near to currently US$58,000. This leads us to the more significant larger weekly time frame observation.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, Fail, Learn, Improve:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of May 3rd, 2021.Here the picture has significantly changed. A bullish engulfing pattern marked within the white square has turned the larger time frame more bullish. This candlestick price pattern states nothing more than all bear traders within the week of the red candle have now been proven wrong. They have either been stopped out or are underwater now. A reversal pattern that gives the bull traders an edge.More importantly, price trades now above a meaningful supply zone marked in yellow from a volume node transactional analysis point of view.We are confident that shortly all-time highs will be tested. A spot where we take partial profits and expect follow-through to new all-time highs.Bitcoin – Fail, Learn, Improve:In a world changing more rapidly than ever since the start of the industrial revolution, one needs to keep on one’s toes if one wants to be ahead of the curve and bet one’s money on perceptions about the future. Statistical edges in isolation or a purely fundamental approach are just not enough. A flexible mind is required most to accept failure and an immediate process to learn from one’s mistakes and implement the gained wisdom, improving and adjusting one’s bets. The times of “set it and forget it” is from a past that does not equal the future. “Adapt or die” comes to mind. And as much as this might seem extreme, markets are very unforgiving, and wealth preservation is key to ensure in part a happy future for yourself and your loved ones. Each extra step taken might create that additional edge necessary to beat the game of finance to your advantage.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 3rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, Lies have short legs

Silver, Lies have short legs

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.04.2021 14:26
Now, how do these men in charge manipulate the markets precisely? Our findings show that one can see almost infinite creativity to manipulate the investor. You hear endless stories about the use of Silver in green energies. Fact is that we have only 2% of battery-used vehicles in place in the auto industry. Only 5% of green energy based on solar panels using Silver is at present opposing 95% of traditional energy production. So we are talking about long-term projections that are already reflected in the current price speculation.When it comes to industrial use, numbers are more transparent. Still, few see the cycle push back. As soon as silver prices rise, the industry walks away from intense Silver usage. Rather it economizes or uses alternative ways to produce their merchandise. Here we have a near self-regulative counter mechanism from the influences of investor-driven price spikes kept Silver mostly range-bound.What is recently often spoken about is spoofing.While it is true that this method of price speculation, a way where laddering prices and volume distribution manipulate order presentation into the depth of bid and ask, can drive prices artificially, this way of market manipulation is affecting markets only short-term. Meaning you might have found yourself in the less liquid times of the day feeling awkward trading since the bid-ask spread behavior is uncommon. And yes, this can affect stop levels and cause difficulties for order execution.Nevertheless, the significant picture, the long-term picture of monthly and annual charts, is nearly unaffected. These manipulation techniques merely aim to get investor psychology out of balance. Lies have short legs meaning they run themselves out. No one can manipulate a market as deep as the Silver market over extended time frames to the extent that the wealth distribution we are talking about and where your purchase of physical Silver can make the difference of ending up with hyper-inflated currency near worthless or an early stance right now accumulation commodity value that is sustainable for the long term both on the preserving of wealth and creation of wealth.Accept the presence of these short-term lies and liars. Walk steadfastly through this commotion undisturbed with one’s psyche to follow one’s plan. Accumulate repeatedly small amounts of Silver on market dips.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver, Taking Profits:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 29th, 2021.The daily chart clearly shows that despite many efforts of trying to keep Silver prices low, Silver has advanced twelve percent – a substantial move within four weeks.This warranted us to take partial profits on the overall exposure we created within these weeks (see our last week’s chartbook release for more details). While we see prices continue to rise within the upward green channel, our approach is a conservative one, and with the possibility to retrace to US$25, it seems prudent to take some profits off the table. All our entries and exits are posted in real time on our free Telegram channel.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Always be prepared:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021.A different view from a larger time frame shows that there is a possibility that prices might retrace as far as US$25. We are less focused on what prices might be doing in their highest likelihood. Instead, we take on the extra work to be prepared for any eventuality. This to never find ourselves being surprised by the market. Having a plan for any eventuality allows us to follow price along, and if a price or time picture matches our prepared plans, we execute.We identified the slightly higher probability of prices to advance immediately since we overcame a distribution zone marked with a dark green horizontal line, which now serves as support.Nevertheless, US$25 works like a magnet from what we coined the “beauty principle” and, as such, would be an excellent opportunity for reentry should the market decline to a supply zone of US$24.75 to US$25.27 (see turquoise circle).Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver, Lies have short legs:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021. bLooking at the weekly chart above, we find prices trading above the point of control (POC) in yellow at US$24.21. This is the core volume node from a volume transaction perspective. Coupled with the harmonious advance and retracement percentage patterns, we find the larger picture bullish and intact. Unharmed of any manipulation tactics that could deter the longer-term picture.In professions where the complex language for relatively simple procedures is used to make these procedures nearly impossible to be transparent, these rules are created to extract participants’ money. While in typical law interpretations, the motive has limited application for sentencing in the regulative markets, the motive is the distinguishing factor of right or wrong. This fact alone should tell one that small investors have the short end in this game. Accepting the realities of being the underdog versus trying to fight it and taking the game and its rules for what it is and still developing systems and edges to come out as a consistent winner is more effective than complaint about injustices. There is always a way… lies have short legs, and the truth will always beat those who only marginally and temporarily get the upper hand briefly at best.Silver, Lies have short legs:The market game is rigged. Which one isn’t? But you can learn the rules and beat them at their own game. The market isn’t the casino where the rules make certain you lose.It is possible to be a consistent winner. You can still find your niche in the market. Yes, you have to improve your performance and stack your odds even more, but you can certainly be on the up and up. Do not be discouraged but instead inspired by the hurdles the market holds for you in-store, and there are plenty. This sport isn’t for the faint-hearted, but the rewards compensate for the hardships more than enough.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 22nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, Exploration needs persistence

Bitcoin, Exploration needs persistence

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.04.2021 18:36
Bitcoin is in a steep uptrend, and as such, the trader’s business is to exploit each retracement if it offers a low-risk entry point.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, The road map:Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of April 26th, 2021.We always advise finding the bigger picture first. The monthly chart illustrates clearly the directional market, which is the essence of edge for a trader. Anything that gives us an edge is of value, and all those edges mounting up together to a true edge is what we are after.Where interest arose was finding besides the trend two additional points of interest: First, we identified a significant volume support supply zone near US$47,680. Secondly, there seems to be a pattern if you look at the vertical lines we drew, that prices seem to bounce to the long side once the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) approached near the zero lines.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Stacking the odds:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 26th, 2021.The next step is finding supporting factors and other odds stacked in lower time frames. One way measuring retracements is through Fibonacci retracement tools. In the above weekly chart, we did this by measuring from each leg lows (1-4) to the highs to find an overlapping high probability point of support for a possible turning point to occur.The yellow circle provided just such a zone of odds in our favor with a carpet of support under the price. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Fine-tuning the entry:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 26th, 2021.Now zooming into the daily chart time frame, we are looking to extrapolate an ideal time to enter the market with the most negligible risk. When prices were rejected twice into the zone below US$48,000, we were alerted to act (wicks within the yellow circle).We bought the opening session on Sunday the 25th of April at US$49,000 and immediately eliminated risk through our Quad exit strategy, taking half of the position off once it reached US$50,750. Now we find ourselves positioned riskless and look fearless into the unknown future.Bitcoin, Exploration needs persistence:No one knows the future. Yes, prices might retrace even further to the next high probability zone near US$37,310 (see monthly chart above). A thirty-nine percent chance, as our systems indicate. But as explorers, we never have ideal circumstances. We get a window of opportunity, and often explorers need to retreat. However, with persistence, they do make their goals come true, even if it takes a few attempts. It is entry risk minimization and our quad exit strategy that allows us to try persistently without losing money to find those trades that pay off handsomely. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, Read the moves

Silver, Read the moves

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.04.2021 12:14
Not every price advance is the same in its validity. Let us have a look at why recent Silver price movements are so promising:Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The giveaway:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 21st, 2021.A glance at the daily chart above shows with green arrows our entry points on Silver over the last three weeks. We post all entries (and exits) in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The very first three entries (green arrows to the left) were based on momentum. We stepped up to the plate finding fractal volume support, and use the contrarian approach to step into momentum to take advantage of the action/reaction principle supporting our Quad exit strategy for quick risk mitigation of early partial profit-taking.Another look shows that at points A, B, and C, the lows of each retracement (leg 1,2,3) are very modest in percentage. Meaning the bears didn’t get a foot in the door. Consequently, we built a more aggressive position size. We took advantage of low-risk entry points again.The final giveaway that price might pierce through the central heart at US$26 of a previous congestion zone is marked with a yellow circle. For four days, price rejected this distribution zone, represented by the long wicks to the upside. But at no time was there a follow-through of price decline to the downside from bears attempting to short US$26.We now find ourselves positioned well with ten runners left:SymbolDATEentryfin 50%1st target 25%2nd target 25%(= runner)XAGUSD3/3023.780000023.870000023.9500000XAGUSD3/3124.300000024.380000024.8300000XAGUSD4/124.280000024.710000024.8400000XAGUSD4/424.588000024.688000024.8440000XAGUSD4/524.780000025.000000025.1400000XAGUSD4/1224.690000024.930000025.3500000XAGUSD4/1325.300000025.420000025.9700000XAGUSD4/1925.715000025.800000026.0700000XAGUSD4/2025.755000025.940000026.5470000XAGUSD4/2025.930000026.000000026.0350000  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The original plan and its risk:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.We posted this monthly chart three weeks ago in our weekly chartbook. Our long-term plan is in motion just as strategized. It is necessary now that we have eliminated the risk to expand our projections and set target zones for our ten runners. We consider them as one whole position unit. We visualize this progression in the following chart.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, Read the moves:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 21st, 2021.We find ourselves not only in a risk-free position but have pocketed some substantial profits. We also carry a 2.5 typical position size in runners (10x 25% of standard size).This allows for opening up to a more significant risk/reward-ratio. We changed our original target near all-time highs to a runner target now at US$73.33 (based on Fibonacci number sequencing). The financing target for half of the position size is set to US$28.77. We will exit another 25% position size as well at US$47.63. These targets are based on fractal volume analysis of distribution zones.Silver, Read the moves:When dealing with more complex methods of risk elimination, position building, transfer time frames, and money management, it is essential to read the market right. While most follow hunches, leverage, or simplified money management and are at most times not even aware of the risk they are taking on, we scrutinize the market in its development of turning points to not arrive at unrecoverable risk positions. Trading isn’t about maximizing profits. It is a constant evaluation of probabilities and market behavior to ride market cycles like surfer ocean waves.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 22nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Plan, Scan, Execute

Plan, Scan, Execute

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.04.2021 14:31
Plan:First, you need to set a goal like: “I want to become a consistently profitable trader.”Secondly, you want each day to look at the market from a top-down perspective (large time frames first). Then plan your game plan for the next day (see our daily call).Thirdly, be precise in what you will be scanning for the next day (i.e., sideways days fade highs and buy double bottoms, directional days: fade in the direction of the trend and don’t counter-trend trade).Also, select times for execution (every day the same time segment).Scan:On the day of a possible execution, one is now fortified with a clear set of rules on what to look for and primarily on what not to do. This allows for participation with reduced risk to get sucked into market action on smaller time frames. Instead, you shouldidentify pre-planned patternsdetermine sensible low risk entry pointsand verify whether your daily call is still in play or if your prior day assessment is proven wrong (which would disqualify this day as an execution day).Execute:Once entry criteria are verified (price patterns, indicator readings, price levels, and so forth), your job is to evaluate if the math fits the trade.First, mark your stop based on a support resistance level. Secondly, identify the next reasonable resistance zone for your trade, and if the distance towards your stop is smaller in size of the distance towards your first target (r/r ratio=1:1.5, see our Quad exit strategy ), you’re in business. Identify your following two targets as well. If the trade fits preset criteria, you are obligated to execute the trade.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The plan:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 15th, 2021.Larger timeframe plays work much alike since your process sheet approach is principle-based and expandable to the larger picture. We looked for a wealth preservation vehicle and found in Silver what fits the bill due to overwhelming fundamental data.The monthly chart above shows a projection chart where we see prices heading. One can see how Silver prices were declining from 2011 highs till 2015. Then the Silver market traded sideways until March last year. From that point on, we quickly advanced in just five-month to US$30. We find evidence that prices should go higher from here.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, The scan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.The look at the weekly chart is confirming a possible play. The yellow trend-lines indicate direction. We are trading near the lows of this support channel and near the mean (red line). Silver extending to three standard deviations from a volatility model is within the norm. As such, our projection allows for a substantial expansion of price from here (see red vertical line). With four levels of support (green horizontal lines), we are confident that lower supply zones (two-volume transaction nodes at US$25.24 and US$24.36, the mean at US$23.39 and the round figure US$23) are holding up price. A third test of the US$30 resistance zone could break through that supply zone, promising higher price levels.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, The execution:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.With an entry near US$25.50, the long-term investor could engage into the market with a stop set at US$22.87 and a financing target near US$29.83. (see our Quad exit strategy). This would provide for a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.64. The next target being US$47.46, allows for ample profits to let the runner take its course for much higher price levels (triple-digit) until we get substantial counter signals to exit the final part of the position.Plan, Scan, Execute:Scrutinize all parts of this three-step instruction setup. People have set goals like becoming a millionaire and lost half their profits on the day they hit the seven-figure number. A subconscious part set in that they would be not worthy of such a sum. We mean to say the devil is in the details. Clearly, we are not trying to simplify trading here and make it sound easy. We see many traders make mistakes since they do not have a detailed, clear instruction plan that they follow religiously. Such a process sheet reduced to its mere bone structure is essential.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 15th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Bitcoin – Grab it while you can

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.04.2021 10:11
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Accelerated moves:Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of April 5th, 2021.Looking at the logarithmic monthly chart of Bitcoin above, you can see Bitcoin’s unique trading behavior. Each of the five thrusts in the last ten years were unique in their structure. After a brief steep decline (red) follows a strong bounce to the break-even point (yellow). This consistent strength in itself is notable. Truly remarkable is what comes after. Prices accelerate substantially further up (turquoise). It is these boost moves in their consistency that we have not seen in any other instrument. It makes Bitcoin unique and creates an edge for the trader as well as the investor.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Favorable abnormalities:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 5th, 2021.What has changed over the years is the substructure of moves within smaller time frames. The weekly chart above shows clearly how retracements are very flat within the last twelve months. Supply-demand imbalances are widening since the number of coins free in the markets for speculation and trade is shrinking due to corporate hoarding of coins. Larger size offers are quickly gobbled up, which leads to small percentage retracements. This lines up with our fundamental findings observing exchange and corporate Bitcoin wallets. BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Exploiting stacked edges:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 5th, 2021.This stacking of odds both fundamentally and charts-wise on the larger time frames leads us to market participation. When low-risk opportunities presented themselves in fulfillment of our daily call pre-setup, we posted a trade entry in our free Telegram channel on April 5th 2021. We were already able to eliminate risk based on our Quad exit strategy. With prices now trading above our volume fractal analysis representing support (green horizontal line), we are positioned in case Bitcoin should break out to new highs.Bitcoin – Grab it while you can:The fundamental reason for these price explosions is hoarding. One aspect is hodlers. Another aspect is the limited amount of Bitcoin. Only 21 million coins will exist with the final coins being minted in around 2140. Once the circulating supply reaches its maximum, Bitcoin miners will no longer receive block rewards. Currently, just over 18.5 million BTC has been produced, equivalent to minting 88.3% of the maximum supply in just over a decade. This alone would have a negligible effect, though, on overall trading behavior. What started supporting these accelerated moves was when many newbies came into the market to buy a Bitcoin or two to just let them sit on an exchange. Still not atypical for a multi-wave acceleration. Now the common picture has turned. We see many sizeable withdrawals from exchanges into wallets that typically do not show any distribution. This genuinely aggressive hoarding behavior of prominent players like hedge funds and pension funds, and large corporate players cause another more dramatic supply imbalance on the already limited supply of Bitcoin. Facts that fundamentally support the general belief that Bitcoin is a genuine alternative to Gold as wealth storage.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 6th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin is invaluable - 06.04.2021

Bitcoin is invaluable - 06.04.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 06.04.2021 10:10
In fact, Bitcoin is a decentralized global digital network which in essence is transforming analog assets into digital assets. It has been growing at 200% a year. Now after 12 years in existence Bitcoin is a digital trillion-dollar network.What supports its long-term stability is that its decentralization and transparency are immune against policy. While we typically at the mercy of policymakers and as such a middleman that can manipulate the use of a payment method, with Bitcoin, the individual is genuinely safe. Looking at the world around us where it is hard to find any field not infiltrated by groups who seek to take advantage, manipulate, and flat out lie, it is a true need one can trust a store of value to benchmark against.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Our chart from last week’s chartbook:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.We posted the above short to midterm chart prediction in our last week’s chartbook publication.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, As anticipated-another leg up:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 29th, 2021.The market unfolded quite as planned. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Health and sustainability:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.If we analyze Bitcoin prices advancing from last August’s lows, we can find an intact Elliot impulse wave pattern. The Health and sustainability of this trend are derived from the three propulsion proportions. While advancing strongly in the first wave with a 323 % advancement, the pace cooled down to a 99% second leg upward. These stunning advancements followed yet again by a more moderate increase of 44% to its recent all-time highs. This abstinence of a blow-off top or run-away train allows us to believe that prices could march higher.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is invaluable, Projections:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.When examining projections, we like to stack odds by looking at both a time and a price component. The above chart shows this blend using a time cycle approach (vertical lines) and a Fibonacci extension probability measurement. Stacking these projection tools would lead us to a price target near ninety-seven thousand for the mid-next year. Our “conservative” projection is marked with the yellow circle on the top right of the chart.Bitcoin is invaluable:Looking around, and you will find that the Dollar is what around the world most value storage is bench-marked against. It seems frightening to us since the Dollar has no gold standard or otherwise intrinsic value that we still give it this much power only based on a belief. With economic powers shifting towards the east and a lack of political and economic leadership, beliefs can change, and as such, currency stability is endangered. Hedging your store of value through an instrument that holds intrinsic value based on principles over beliefs seems more than logical.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 30th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, Focus on resilience

Silver, Focus on resilience

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.04.2021 07:25
Silver’s price faces just the same strain. Much influenced by various strings pulling. It is essential to stay focused on the prime fundamentals and the clear long-term case for the shiny metal. Numbers for demand are overwhelmingly positive, and the fact that news coverage is strong doesn’t justify the temporary price dip to be principle-based.It is not easy to be a contrarian, yet it is very rewarding. We firmly believe this to be another rare opportunity to add to one’s physical holdings of Silver.The four cornerstones for resilience are:You. Take care of yourself first. A year without gyms, cooped up at home, and social isolation took a toll. Make sure you are balanced.People. No matter if corporate or family. We all went through this. As a result, people, worn out and making more mistakes, have changed. Don’t take your spouse and kids for granted. Treat your loved ones with extra care and renourish. They are your backbone. Accept that people essential to your business might not be as reliable as they used to be. Reevaluate partnerships and supply chains and have a watchful eye where your business is vulnerable. This is especially important if you trade with other people’s money.Technology. With supply chains banged up, it is wise to have backup systems in place and not expect smooth operations in case of extraordinary circumstances. Have necessary parts stockpiled and be self-dependent.Operations. Check your operations for their processes, people, and technology. Think risk control over efficiency. Form KYC to regulatory changes and increased fraud; this isn’t a time to streamline and maximize. Instead, set up systems to monitor compliance, strengthen your partnerships and supply chain reliance. Overall under the motto: “Never assume!” as we are now living in a world of fast change.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Last week´s setup:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 24th, 2021.We posted this chart in last week’s Silver chartbook publication.  Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Execution on the plan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 1st, 2021.Since prices moved into our pre-planned entry zone of the yellow circle, we posted two entries live on our free Telegram channel. We were able to take already partial profits based on our Quad exit strategy to eliminate risk and are now holding two runners.Sideways range entries like these with quick risk elimination are representative of resilience. One doesn’t know which one of these entries will be the one where the remainder position size will break through the upper boundary of the range. One doesn’t need to. As long as the entries are low risk, this engagement in a tough sideways zone with the clarity of great success once the range breaks in the direction of the trend supports persistent efforts.Monthly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver-Focus on resilience, The edge on our side:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.It is a misconception that one needs to be right to make money. But the ego constantly suggests us to find that best entry price. However, there is no such thing. We need to try resiliently until we get it right and control risk and reward ratios over sample sizes. An effort that requires a resilient mindset.A look at the most critical large time frame chart above shows three crucial factors.A preceding strong directional leg from US$12 to US$30 indicating a trend.A very favorable risk-reward ratio for the large time frame players.And if you have a closer look within the red box, you will find excellent volume transaction support below the price we are trading right now.Trading is a business no matter what time frame. You are in charge of wealth preservation and creation and you are the core anchor. Hence, you need to be in the best shape. Review your business plan and be aware that resilience requires a review of your breaking points. While we typically streamline business for efficiency, resilience points towards risk control and a look at dependencies. Ask yourself what can be learned from last year’s challenges and what can be done that similar surprise events do not negatively impact your business.Silver, Focus on resilience:Why did we pick this topic? Because trading and investment systems are only as good as their weakest link. With human error in trading being the number one equity curve killer, you are the weakest link. With change gaining speed, we find a top-down approach necessary to assure resilience to act upon the opportunities that change offers, maturely and fittingly. It isn’t business as usual; these times require extra preparation for the long haul.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 2nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin is invaluable

Bitcoin is invaluable

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.03.2021 08:27
In fact, Bitcoin is a decentralized global digital network which in essence is transforming analog assets into digital assets. It has been growing at 200% a year. Now after 12 years in existence Bitcoin is a digital trillion-dollar network.What supports its long-term stability is that its decentralization and transparency are immune against policy. While we typically at the mercy of policymakers and as such a middleman that can manipulate the use of a payment method, with Bitcoin, the individual is genuinely safe. Looking at the world around us where it is hard to find any field not infiltrated by groups who seek to take advantage, manipulate, and flat out lie, it is a true need one can trust a store of value to benchmark against.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Our chart from last week’s chartbook:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.We posted the above short to midterm chart prediction in our last week’s chartbook publication.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, As anticipated-another leg up:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 29th, 2021.The market unfolded quite as planned. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Health and sustainability:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.If we analyze Bitcoin prices advancing from last August’s lows, we can find an intact Elliot impulse wave pattern. The Health and sustainability of this trend are derived from the three propulsion proportions. While advancing strongly in the first wave with a 323 % advancement, the pace cooled down to a 99% second leg upward. These stunning advancements followed yet again by a more moderate increase of 44% to its recent all-time highs. This abstinence of a blow-off top or run-away train allows us to believe that prices could march higher.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is invaluable, Projections:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.When examining projections, we like to stack odds by looking at both a time and a price component. The above chart shows this blend using a time cycle approach (vertical lines) and a Fibonacci extension probability measurement. Stacking these projection tools would lead us to a price target near ninety-seven thousand for the mid-next year. Our “conservative” projection is marked with the yellow circle on the top right of the chart.Bitcoin is invaluable:Looking around, and you will find that the Dollar is what around the world most value storage is bench-marked against. It seems frightening to us since the Dollar has no gold standard or otherwise intrinsic value that we still give it this much power only based on a belief. With economic powers shifting towards the east and a lack of political and economic leadership, beliefs can change, and as such, currency stability is endangered. Hedging your store of value through an instrument that holds intrinsic value based on principles over beliefs seems more than logical.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 30th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver´s situation changed, you change

Silver´s situation changed, you change

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 27.03.2021 19:19
This week’s price action changed the probability for the short term towards the highest likelihood of continued sideways movement within the established range of the last eight months. Consequently, opportunities have been opening up in the related mining sector. Meaning now is the time to prep this additional field of leverage and sift through one’s choices on how to strike once Silver has found its bottom.Weekly Chart of Silver Spot Price compared to Mining Companies:Silver Spot Price compared to Mining Companies, weekly chart as of March 24th, 2021.The main work in trading is to be prepared. “Make a plan, and trade that plan.” Comparing fundamentals and charts, we found the above candidates to be prime for additional holdings to your spot price trading and physical holdings.The weekly comparison chart shows the strong relationship of mining company valuation towards the actual Silver spot trading price. It also illustrates a beta component meaning the miners move from a percentage perspective proportionally more than the spot price. Depending on your risk appetite, you can pick what suits your aggressiveness of investment style best. This requires adjustment of risk through position size. Miners offer a stock market exposure with leverage and an instrument where you wouldn’t mind owning a part of the company you are holding stocks in. This in an environment where thinking from a wealth preservation perspective is vital.  Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silvers situation changed, you change:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 24th, 2021.The daily chart above shows why we find the short to mid-term picture to be changed. A significant tight trading range (yellow box) broke to the downside. The bears were able to get the upper hand and not only over this range but price also broke through a significant supply zone based on maximum volume transactions at the US$26.11 price zone. This results in a successful second leg of a downtrend within the broad sideways range fulfilling the bear flag marked in red lines.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Refining the plan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 24th, 2021.The weekly chart of Silver shows in white the last eight months’ sideways range. Within that range, we had three dominant zones. Trading at the bottom of range three (green box) suggests the highest likelihood of turning point to be at trading prices right at this moment or below. (all the way down to US$22.50). Watching Gold, the sector leader for relative strength or weakness towards Silver and the individual mining stocks to pick out the highest likely turning spot and the low-risk entry point is the goal over the upcoming weeks. In short, while prices trade within the yellow circle price range, US$22.50 to US$25.05 mining chart evaluation is advised.Monthly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Lift Off delay:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of March 24th, 2021.While none of these events changed the larger time frame outlook, the time component when the monthly and weekly trades will follow through to the upside has been delayed—an excellent time to plan one’s next trading instruments and entry point levels.Silvers situation changed, you change:Through training, one can adapt to a more free mindset, allowing one to see clearly if plans pan out differently to formulate a different approach. This ability to rapidly change one’s opinion helps to perceive the market for what it is and not be emotionally involved if the future becomes different from anticipated. Welcoming the change, knowing it offers new opportunities, is the mental state a good speculator operates from.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 25th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, no genius required

Bitcoin, no genius required

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 24.03.2021 09:44
Why do we mention this? Bitcoin is in a massive uptrend right now, and we are about to see another leg up. Typically, the choice of participating or staying sidelined is with more minor consequences than this time around. We are in a wealth transferring market cycle. An event happening typically every 93 years. An event at the end of a fiat currency dissolving into hyperinflation and leaving many in despair. E.g. have you noticed your grocery bill being over 20% higher and mass media not mentioning it? Get informed and not mislead and do not wrongly be instructed that this bitcoin ship has sailed and there are no ways to participate at these levels. They will look timid in a few years to come.S&P-500 Index, Weekly Chart, Warning signs of a larger cycle ending:S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 19th, 2021.We posted a similar to the above chart on February 19th in our weekly Silver chartbook to indicate a possible extended stock market with a more than typical retracement possibility.S&P-500 Index, Weekly Chart, Double top with Indicator divergence confirmation:S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2021.Now only five weeks later, we see the first possible cracks. The weekly chart shows a possible directional change with divergences in both a directional indicator (Stochastic in yellow) and a momentum oscillator (Commodity Channel index in white), confirming this suspicion through divergences. Hence, we might get a trend reversal over the next few weeks or months. BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Possible breakout (Short to midterm):Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.While due to the need to cover margin calls an actual market crash would temporarily drag all asset classes down, in the early stages of a trend direction change, money would flow from the stock market into safety asset classes like Bitcoin. The chart above shows Bitcoin in a consolidation phase that looks to resolve through a breakout to the upside. Besides, we find fractal volume transaction support at the US$50,870 price level.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin, no genius required:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2021.The weekly chart of Bitcoin illustrates the health of the recent trend extension. Price is trading above directional support (yellow trendline) and within the norm of Fibonacci retracement levels.Bitcoin, no genius required:Systems promising more than a hundred percent returns earned within a year, sell at exorbitant prices. You do not need to have such returns as compound interest takes very well care for those getting consistent. Why would vendors sell these unique methodologies instead of making their own fortunes with them?In short, you need high-quality principle-based guidelines, apply hard work and be independent of the good opening of others versus getting fooled by “rich quick” schemes and fool’s gold promises. There is no genius required, just good old hard work like in any other field that requires mastery for competition level.If trading were a mathematical competition, we would find all rocket scientists to be the winners in this game. But the is far from the truth. Instead, it is precisely the opposite based on a simple principle distinction. The mathematical mind seeks a precise and optimal solution. It aims at a reduction to a constant. This approach fails the high degree of aspects defining the human psyche and all the grey zones that come with it. It is much more essential to find a trading approach that fits your personality.Consequently, eliminate any system purchase. One needs to work refining one’s own path. One needs to find a niche in the time frame, market, and volatility to one’s specific personal makeup.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, simple and effective

Silver, simple and effective

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 21.03.2021 10:12
Why we find Silver to be the number one hedge towards an uncertain future, an excellent investment to make stellar returns, and a simple way to protect your wealth is as follows:Precious metals have a history of perfect risk mitigation of a portfolioPrecious metals have an intrinsic tangible commodity value if held in physical formSilver is the underdog in its sector, needing to catch up with gold, providing for an additional edgeSilver is trending (now in a consolidation period – and within this consolidation strong – after a potent first trend leg up)Fundamental facts point overwhelmingly towards a strong Silver demandSilver is in the public eye, the news, creating demand in various investor and consumer classesActual proof of demand outweighing supply through the now consistently for a year divergence between spot and physical acquisition price for Silver (a 35% difference at the moment).Monthly Chart of Gold/Silver-Ratio, The turbo edge:Gold-Silver ratio, monthly chart as of March 18th, 2021.A look at the monthly chart of the Gold/Silver-Ratio above shows that historically price violations of the 40 moving average result in a move much more closer towards a median zone. Imbalance, principle-based, returning to balance. This, even with the most moderate early area of a 43.50 level (our studies show a reasonable likelihood of a value of 18), provides a turbo stack-able edge for a Silver purchase. These additional boosters for a higher likelihood of success of your investment make all the difference.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, A healthy trend:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 18th, 2021.The weekly chart of Silver shows that even though the last six months were one of consolidation for Silver prices, within that consolidation, there was consistent follow-through of strength for direction. You can make this out by eyeballing price within this sideways period (after the stellar advance from March 2020 to August 2020) creeping upward on the blue midline for the linear regression channel. Strong volume node price support at US$25 is now substantiated by holding through the Fed announcement this week. Consequently providing good support and low risk for more physical Silver acquisition.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver, simple and effective:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of March 18th, 2021.The last 50 years on a monthly Silver chart bring to light that Silver can move for substantial distances. These bull trends live above the 100-moving average. The bears have their upper hands below this average line. Silver jolted out of a six-year bear range cycle far above the 100-moving average. Consequently, probability is now on the side for Silver investors. That with quite some upside potential for the long run. We feel confident that Silver sees new all-time highs in the not-so-distant future and most likely three-digit figures not too far out as well.Silver, simple and effective:A mistake here and there is human. If you miss an entry once in a while, that’s fine. But right now, we see a tendency of hope replacing sound wealth preservation strategy. A typical move of the subconscious when exposed for too long to a stressful situation. A hopeful mindset is not a good point of origin for investing. Emotional states aren’t the best investment advisors. The future is far from clear may this be fiscal or monetary, political or economical. A simple and effective way right now is what is needed to get grounded. Consequently, finding oneself on an emotionally sound foundation to operate from.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 18th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

When to trade Bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.03.2021 11:40
All markets are related. Looking for liquidity provides times when execution is guaranteed, and slippage minimized. Professionals tend to gravitate towards the futures and forex markets. These markets are leveraged and least regulated (no uptick rule for shorting the market).Stacking Liquidity, When to trade Bitcoin:Stacking Liquidity, GMT daily chart as of March 15th, 2021The chart above tries to show when these prime times occur daily to place one’s trades. For the long-term investor, these times guarantee good fills and good times to get in and out of their positions. For short- to mid-term trades, these times represent in addition opportunities to find themselves in transactions at the right time. To clarify, whenever a market opens around the globe, it means an abnormality, a possible imbalance. These imbalances can be the seed to a directional move more significant than at other times.If you visit Wall Street, you will find market makers on typical days trade the market open for about ninety minutes, then handing over operations to their assistants while enjoying elaborate lunches and returning for the last 90 minutes of the trading session. You want to focus alongside this more meaningful time in the market rather than being caught in the noise.It is stacking one’s odds that provide for a consistent outcome of profitable trading. In this case, we minimize risk by entering and exiting the market at Prime Time. Prime Time being liquidity stacked session overlaps (Asia+London and London+New York). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, The weekend fake:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 15th, 2021That leaves us with weekend moves that have a lower probability of follow-through. Last weekend’s move to all-time new highs is a good example. Old highs got penetrated, but actual price behavior reveals once the Asia session starts on Monday.Short-term trading as such is directionally neutral for now. For the midterm, we plotted possible reentry zones in the daily chart above.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, A bright future:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2021We find the long-term price expansion of Bitcoin still in place as long as prices do not runaway towards the upside exuberantly in fast motion.Even if you have high time frame entries or exits, it is wise to pick market times of a high degree of liquidity and strong participation.When to trade Bitcoin:It is essential to look at one’s desired trading instrument for abnormalities like the weekend night moves on Bitcoin. Position yourself before breakouts to such moves to avoid traps and volatility that requires larger stops, representing larger risk.Bitcoin has a relationship with the precious metal sector. Gold leading this sector typically shows price moves at the London session open (4:00 am EST), and as such, these are times to have an eye out for Bitcoin as well. Gold also is known to move at the U.S. premarket hours (8:30 am EST), and the actual NYSE opens at 9:30 am EST. Picking one’s battles timed to suggested hours in the first chart of this publication allows for risk minimization. Consequently, it provides a scheduled trading routine versus the risk of struggling to pay 24/7 attention and deal with a lot of price noise and fatigue risk.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 16th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, Process over intuition

Silver, Process over intuition

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 15.03.2021 11:07
This principle is significant in times like right now where Silver is seeming, say intuitively, trading sideways and might even feel bearish most of the time in this trading range. The truth however is, that Silver is in a major bull run and will be so for quite a while coming.Market manipulation and the fact that the market itself is counterintuitive by nature make continuous entry discipline on low-risk trading especially difficult for beginning traders who try to follow their hunches.Weekly Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, On the move:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 11th, 2021.Looking at the weekly chart above, we see a steep trend leg up. Next, prices meandering through a sideways range. Significant is the latest behavior through the range from the range low to the range high, retracing only moderately through the range when bouncing from the range high to a Fibonacci retracement of 0.38, where it bounced strongly – a clear sign of strength.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Supporting factors:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 11th, 2021.But that isn’t all. Another weekly chart representation also shows that this Fibonacci level is supported by the round number US$25. Here we find a significant supply zone based on our volume analysis tool. Here most transactions have been happening over time at around a price level of US$25.25.In addition the intensity of the price bounce is indicating strength. Price didn’t retest but moved strongly up for a reversal of direction.This “stacking of odds” is part of the process to qualify entries instead of “feeling” that prices might change.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver-Process over intuition:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 11th, 2021.In conclusion, we find that the process-oriented trader has significant evidence for a trend continuation. This is especially drawn from the first leg up with a high likelihood of further advancements and a range break in the near future.The weekly chart above shows through its regression channel why prices can quickly advance towards the upper rim (red upper channel line). There we would take partial profits based on our quad exit strategy whole prices should then increase further from there through time. Prices still near the mean (red dotted line) can also from a mathematical, statistical perspective within reason advance further. What also points towards the overall interest in Silver is the increased volume within the last six months. Shown in the red and turquoise horizontal bars.Silver, Process over intuition:It isn’t practice alone. Only a refined rule set for this process will make it possible to follow one’s own instruction. If there are holes where intuition can step in to make a partial decision, failure is near. Our need to be right (ego) is strong, and it will try to get its needs met. So it might try to lure you into fulfilling your hunch needs by altering money management. Don’t let your subconscious trick you into manipulating your position size because you have intuitions or hunches. Starting with paper trading and growing slowly with a minimal position size is the best bet not to lose one’s shirt in the early years. Constant refinement of your process rules and accepting trading to be a boring endeavor while executing is the way to consistency and riches.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 12th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, how not to lose

Bitcoin, how not to lose

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.03.2021 14:01
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, Conservatively Bullish:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2021.One of the best ways to keep one’s emotions in check is reducing position size. It allows for accepting risk and, as such seeing the market for what it is. Looking at the monthly chart above, this size reduction on new entries is also in accordance with the risk at these more extended levels. We see prices progressing higher, but entry risk once the price has moved up this far aligns to our risk control parameters from a psychological perspective and a statistical one. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Steep and steady:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2021.This weekly chart shows price behavior even more clearly. For nearly three years, Bitcoin prices meandered around the mean (yellow line). Last year in October, Bitcoin prices broke out of this range. Already four weeks later, in November 2020, prices extended above typical standard deviation levels. Nothing atypical for Bitcoin, which loves sharp advances. And again, we do not see prices decline from here rapidly. However, what is affected are stop levels and entry probabilities, which makes the astute trader behave more risk-averse both in exposure size and trading frequency.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Bitcoin, how not to lose:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 8th, 2021.The green arrows on the daily chart show our long entries last week. We posted these in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Each of these entries had a position size reduced by thirty-five percent. We were also able to finance all three trades (=take partial profits shortly after entry based on our Quad exit strategy to eliminate risk). For now, we are holding remainder small position sizes for possible price advances without a skewed view due to the more than usual conservative approach (= minimal position size).Bitcoin, how not to lose:It takes quite some experience to judge oneself on emotions of over- self-confidence. If you had an excellent run on investments, take some money off the table. Wire it from your brokerage. Consider self-gifting, vacation, or otherwise reward yourself. Make sure your daily self-assessment routine contains this checkpoint of possible over-confidence. Reduce size for upcoming trades and pat yourself on the shoulder for a job well done.You could give more considerable amounts of profits up due to negligence and being complacent, not abiding as diligent to your trading rules, as usual. This can be especially painful in these heightened emotional states. Consequently, this causes even more dramatic setbacks trying to brush early warning signals of over trading and under-selecting signal quality off and trying to prove yourself. Like the market, you need to take a breath, celebrate, and return light footed on half size for the next run-up.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, don’t be fooled

Silver, don’t be fooled

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 05.03.2021 12:25
Here are the facts why there is a higher likelihood for Silver prices to advance:A lot of news items attract buyers. Silver is in the limelight.Physical Silver prices trade up to 30% over the spot price.We had a bullish twelve-month period for Silver prices. Consequently, describing the first leg of a trend. With a high probability of two more legs to be following.We see money inflow into the precious metal sector as a whole. These are safe haven seeking investments due to the threat of hyperinflation caused by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.Possible highest ever physical delivery months within this year for Silver futures traded on the COMEX exchange.Daily Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, Good support:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 5th, 2021.Looking at this sideways range, we find ample support of prices within the range right now as a healthy spot to acquire physical Silver. We pointed out that last time around prices touched the simple 200 moving average, Silver prices exploded. We expect a similar scenario now. There is a likelihood that prices might already take off in the upcoming week here from the secondary volume analysis support point (POC=point of control). These stacked up edges of support provide for tighter stops and great risk-reward ratios.  Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Stacking Odds:Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 5th, 2021.A great way timing your Silver entry is also looking at inter-market relationships. Once Gold, the sector leader, will find its support, Silver will follow. This technique might help distinguish if Silver will be bouncing from primary or secondary POC in the upcoming week (as indicated in the first chart of this article).The monthly chart above shows that Gold has entered a prime buy zone between US$1,650 and US$1,700. Both the Fibonacci retracement and the fractal volume analysis demand zone substantiate that fact.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, don’t be fooled:Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 5th, 2021.Another view at Gold reveals that it bounced strongly last time it touched its simple 20 months moving average. It is a confirmation that we might be able to temporarily bottom here and support a possible Silver up move. In such a case Silver might be temporarily topping by mid-August to mid-September this year. At that time, Silver will be ripe for partial profit taking to reduce long-term risk by using our quad exit strategy.Our thinking is all programmed for a hundred years to benchmark against dollars. I am sure you have noticed your groceries to be more expensive now or better said, everything being more expensive. Maybe thinking the dollar is worth less is a more somber way of perceiving the change. Benchmarking against Silver or Gold or even Bitcoin might be a more accurate measure of value perception. Average monthly wages in Venezuela representing a value of US$6 are an excellent example of what hyperinflation can look like.If you are holding your wealth in US-Dollars only, you are at extreme risk. We are not too specific on Silver or Gold or mining companies or Bitcoin or land, but we are risk averse. We urge you to look critically at fiat currency holdings. The risk/reward-ratio of Silver at this time is excellent. Usable as a hedge against this risk!Silver, don’t be fooled:When you hear from many various sources that Silver “is the thing to buy,” it feels like “too good to be true.” Sound fundamental analysis shows that holding physical Silver is, in fact, a prudent course of action. Silver prices are manipulated. They do not reflect true value. Physical prices trading much higher than the spot price. Once truth can’t be suppressed anymore, we see a fair likelihood for Silver prices to advance rapidly. Our conservative targets for the Silver market point at annual highs near Labor Day. At that point we aim to take partial profits.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 5th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin on the move

Bitcoin on the move

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.03.2021 11:00
Our optimism for further advances is principle-based. The following analysis shows why we perceive a continuation in price advances with low-risk entry possibilities.BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, A healthy breath:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of March 1st, 2021.A glance at the monthly chart above shows that as much as the trend is steep, it is in good health. The upper wicks on the monthly candles indicate a healthy breath. What expands must retrace. And Bitcoin does just that. It has strong pushes upwards but then gives profits partially back. It takes a deep breath up to be followed by harmonious breathing out. We see no indication from the most critical larger time frame why Bitcoin prices could not continue to advance soon, even to surpass their all-time highs within the next months. There is no blow-off volume plotted nor irregular fractal volume distribution of supply and demand zones. There are no warning signals of ill health. This athlete is fit for a marathon. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Most likely:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2021.All trading instruments have their probabilistic personality. Bitcoin is volatile and has typically larger retracements in size. These personalities provide for a good mathematical guideline of what is most likely to happen. Of course, they can also change over time).A closer look at the weekly chart above shows prices to sit right below a distribution zone indicated by a volume analysis showing resistance overhead at US$47,396. Bitcoin most likely gets pushed one more time to lower price levels before advancing. Therefore, we are buying into the market within a range center at prices of US$37,630 (+/-1k).BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Bitcoin on the move:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 1st, 2021.We see three possible scenarios. The daily chart shows in their most likely probability scenario: number one likely, scenario two the second likely, and scenario three the least likely. One should participate in all three events with entries and use our quad exit strategy to protect these events from costing any money. Instead, irrespective of their longer outcome, provide for at least a small profit.Bitcoin on the move:With larger time frames in mind, technical analysis isn’t the only factor pointing towards higher prices. The sustainability of Bitcoin and demand for this technology are more and more transparent. Some argue that Bitcoin’s anonymity creates crime. We find the true principle there to be an aspect of criminal behavior within humanity. Cash is used for some unlawful transactions. That doesn’t render cash transactions inherently to be illegal. In a world where excessive data eradicates privacy, one needs to be asking if the need for a payment system that allows for some of that privacy isn’t something necessary. That is to say protection of human potential that is born out of personal privacy.Less philosophical, there is a need for wealth preservation right now. Worldwide monetary policy eradicates the value of fiat currency fast. For the short term, we find there to be a threat of further value dilution. Upcoming stimulus package payments require money printing again. For the midterm, we see the first signs of a different attitude towards the risk of the printing machine between European countries and the US. Ill-gotten behavior has an extended shelf life when the whole world dances the same waltz. Once opinions diverge, resulting in various diverging actions, the house of cards is tumbling fast. In this case, while Bitcoin might be dropping temporarily and take one of its deeper breathing out phases, it will be the first that takes an inhale on a level astounding even its fans.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller| March 1st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, when everything fits

Silver, when everything fits

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 25.02.2021 10:14
One factor supporting our theory that Silver will find itself in its next leg up is the early release data from “The Silver Survey 2021” (a significant annual report from “The Silver Institute” in conjunction with the research firm “Metals Focus”). Their research suggests a total demand increase to an eight-year high of 1,025 billion ounces of Silver.Suppose you think of ease of covid as a catalyst. In that case, that to one side will provide more supply in the mining industry workers to return to their workplace, the other side of demand easily outweighs through a whole world returning to business as usual.Suppose demand from Solar cells to jewelry, from physical investments to Wall Street traded silver products generally increase. In that case, we find our temporary sideways range breather soon to break out above US$30 to enter the next up leg.Daily Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, Slowly but surely:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 25th, 2021.As you can see on the daily chart, Silver is starting to push higher through its smaller ranges within the range to prepare for a breakout and obeying the trendline (yellow dotted line) as directional support.  Gold/Silver-Ratio, Weekly Chart, The ratio suggests for Silver to catch up:Gold/Silver-Ratio, weekly chart as of February 25th, 2021.Once desperate bears have to give way to Silver’s real value and demand, we most likely see price-advances much more significant than generally assumed.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, And the future is bright, Silver, when everything fits:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 25th, 2021.The last eleven month’s price advances might seem staggering regarding percentage. Especially if you consider that a physical ounce of Silver is currently sold around US$40. Hence, we still see Silver prices reaching three-digit numbers at some point in the next few years. Midterm projections already show Silver prices sitting right above major support from a volume based analysis. And linear regression channel projection points at substantial advances within this year.Silver, when everything fits:We find ourselves in an uptrend in Silver. It just has established its first foundation and has a great range of expansion to offer. Consequently, this results in an excellent risk/reward-ratio for participation. In addition, fundamental long-term data supports the sustainability of that trend. Most importantly a world fiscal policy forces investor into safe havens. Also, the Gold/Silver-Ratio suggests Silver to be the underdog with much ground to catch up. We might see Silver prices in an entirely different echelon in the not too far distant future.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 25th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motion

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.02.2021 11:19
Bitcoin surpassed another milestone trading well over 50k last week. Even the strongest doubters start joining in. All professionals have begun to take a bite, and we are far from speculating if this idea has merit. Now the question is how long it will hold steadfast under the attack of possible government coin inventions.It isn’t easily replaced since it already has a history. New inventions might not become an immediately acceptable standard. After all, the large part is trust. We are always rushing to Gold and Silver because of its long historical trust established as a means of barter. With a world much more intertwined geographically, we need a third payment method to allow for large-distance transactions. Something Gold and Silver cannot easily provide.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, When to get in:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2021.The question isn’t any longer if Bitcoin will make it or whether it is a bubble or whether it is a temporary thing. The question all that are not holding Bitcoin should be asking is: “Where can I get in?”With bitcoin´s past volatility, it is safe to say we will find ourselves in a retracement in the not-to-distant future where entries near US$51,500 and at the levels below of US$47,500 and US$37,500 are entry zones to keep an eye on. No need to bet the farm but ignoring Bitcoin to wait for another round of next advances isn’t advisable. BTC-USDT, Hourly Chart, Know when to get out:BTC-USDT, hourly chart as of February 22nd, 2021.One can tell what type of money has entered the arena by the way price is advancing. When breakout trades in frequency dominate all other chart pattern formations, it is evident that less-educated funds entered the arena. Last Friday, we advised channel members in our free Telegram channel to take partial profits at US$55,500, a smart point of exit. Yes, prices did advance even higher to US$58,352, but we perceive markets not from maximizing profits but from a risk perspective. This chart shows how volatile noise came in right after these price levels and bears and bulls started their struggle. A time where one would want to be exposed with less position size and stay sidelining from an entry perspective.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motion:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2021.One might think that 58k is high. Especially looking back that Bitcoin at some point could be acquired for less than US$2. Those exposed for a more extended period to this investment vehicle, remember the fierce retracements of up to 80-90%. The future does not have to equal the past. With most of the money from a volume perspective not being allocated yet, we still find an immense potential for much higher price levels than Bitcoin trading right here. Yes, we might find ourselves in a steep retracement once this first bull wave is over. All this should be perceived is as an opportunity and not feared of Bitcoin going away. It won’t.With second legs typically being much larger than the first and a three-leg advancement being modest, we find our projections conservative.Bitcoin, supreme beauty in motion:In times where hyperinflation again destroys much that some hoped for and others worked for, by over-borrowing, the need for a barter method that cannot be diluted, Bitcoin fits like a glove. Its mathematical standard of limitation to the number of twenty-one million allows for the trust given not to be disappointed. Like times where we had the gold standard, one can rely on its stability. It found its stable place alongside precious metals to be a safe haven and a way to continue doing business and measure one’s wealth against. Its mathematical beauty provides the safety and freedom needed to return to truthful value exchange.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Large Silver cycles

Large Silver cycles

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 19.02.2021 11:13
It´not a secret anymore that Silver is in a boom.The investor is digesting pandemic news for nearly a year now. And the newly termed phrase at the World Economic Forum: “In 2030, you will own nothing and be happy” makes one think twice.The chartist finds himself for almost a year in a bullish trend in Silver. This after Silver trading in a range for seven years. He/She sees Gold on the top of the list of ‘Top assets by market cap’ with Silver ranking 6th and Bitcoin ranking 9th.The market participant focused on fundamentals and market cycles is wondering how long the dollar will hold up as a fiat currency. Typically (over the last 600 years), a fiat currency hyperinflates after 93 years.Nevertheless, the question of “How much” is one to be answered, and it could be much larger time cycles that provide guidance there.The world viewed from a different angle might give clues:Toddlers have anxiety symptoms which can manifest in not eating properly, quickly getting angry or irritable, and being out of control during outbursts as well as constantly worrying or having negative thoughts and feeling tense and fidgety.Social Media addiction among  teens and young adults has exploded leading to an inability to stop or curb this addictive behavior despite suffering losses in friendship, decreased physical social engagement, and a negative impact at school.Worldwide obesity has nearly tripled since 1975. In 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults, 18 years and older, were overweight. Of these over 650 million were obese.The elderly are unwanted in a production-oriented society that measures human value by productivity rate.Yet, pet clothing stores and fresh pet food sections in grocery chain stores are becoming the norm.Any endeavors, including the arts, are measured against the benchmark of profitability. Resulting in the worship of money over beauty, ethics, and principles.The list goes on and could point as far back as to decadent times before the fall of Rome.Daily Chart of Silver, Range Trading:Silver in US Dollar, dailly chart as of February 18th, 2021.One part that has changed over time is the integrity of the markets. Free markets and their principle benefits are endangered. And then typically lies have short legs, and truth prevails.While Silver prices are still held in a range by artificial shorts, the cost of physical Silver much more accurately describes its value increase.  Weekly Chart of Silver, One deep breath and go:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 18th, 2021.Once desperate bears have to give way to Silver’s real value and demand, we most likely see price-advances much more significant than generally assumed.S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, Monthly Chart, Large Silver cycles:S&P 500 Index in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 18th, 2021.A view at the S&P500 chart above from a professional chartist’s perspective would qualify the hypothetical crash scenario, not as an abnormality but rather a typical scenario after advances this extended in time.In Rome, the leading coin used was The Denarius. With a 90% silver content (4.5 grams per coin), it was equal to a day’s work wages. Rome’s prosperity came from barter, and a finite amount of Silver came into the empire. Within 75 years, the Silver content per coin was diluted down to only 5%. Various emperors did this to finance wars and extravaganza. It was mainly hyperinflation that broke the empire. Sounds familiar?Large Silver cyclesOur intent is not to judge the world and the state it finds itself in, but markets reflect in cycles, and any view larger than one’s lifetime is hard to gauge. We might be in the midst of a market phase where next time around, we get a severe market correction; it might get ugly in a hurry. The result might be more dramatic than the corrections we have seen in the last 20 years. In this case, a look as far back as the Romans could be useful to determine how aggressively we hedge our bets, how much we buy into physical Silver. It looks like a few extra ounces couldn’t hurt.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 19th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, be a contrarian

Bitcoin, be a contrarian

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.02.2021 10:50
It is easier said than done since we like seeing the confirmation. We enjoy seeing prices go up and then would be willing to commit to buying. Unfortunately, it is too late to participate at that point since the risk is increasing the more prices advance. The result is that many novices trade breakout trades. This is one of the most apparent form of market participation. Since the whole world can identify such a trade, it is a low probability technique.A real edge is created by conditioning oneself to ask the right questions at the right time. When prices retrace within a general uptrend having a clear rule set of participation is very useful. When prices go up, using a supporting exit strategy like our quad exit to take partial exits and generally asking oneself where to get out is the right behavior.The following three charts describe the essential scenarios we see for Bitcoin to progress further.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Minor dip with high risk:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.As much as a minor retracement would point for the most aggressive trend direction from a risk perspective regarding mid and long-term market participation, we see no low-risk entries to take part in. In this case, we prefer the price to penetrate 50k successfully and would like to enter on a bounce of this significant number. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Consolidation zone below US$50,000:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.The next way prices could unfold is consolidation below the larger 50k marker. We find entries on the low end of the trend rage attractive as participation by taking partial profits on the range box’s upper rim and possible continuation of the remaining position size to all time new highs.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin-be a contrarian:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.The real contrarian opportunity would lay in a larger retracement to fade for the well-prepared trader. Bitcoins’ nature has been to show substantial retracements. A move like this would evoke emotions of doubt. Contrarian to these emotions, the larger the decline, the more aggressive an entry in position size should be.All three scenarios require a well-prepped plan. Instead of following the market’s evolution with emotional observation, focus on the prepared battle plan and engage only if your preconceived ideas are matched by price behavior.Bitcoin, be a contrarianIf you follow prey to your intuitive, emotional response, you will find yourself in the urge of wanting to get into the market once prices show a clear direction. This is also precisely at that spot where “fear of missing out” comes into play, another emotional trigger. Conscious efforts have to be made to overwrite these non-quality questions from a market participation perspective. Write notes into your charts and rehearse quality-question-timing for market participation until they become second nature. A low-risk entry methodology starts with these quality questions, and doing so within a trade, is one of the best performing trading methods out there. Be a contrarian to market direction and be a contrarian to your emotions.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 15th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver protection against exuberance

Silver protection against exuberance

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.02.2021 10:46
Weekly Chart of Silver, The trend is your friend:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 11th, 2021.First and foremost, remove yourself from the noise. There is no need to read every news item. Turn those notifications on your phone off to not let media frequently trigger fear and uncertainty emotions within. Make a longer-term plan that excludes short-term uncertainties and, as such, escapes temporary exuberance hype. Once your mind has settled down, approach the market with a simple but sound wealth preservation strategy first and wealth creation second. It is much harder to make back what you already earned once lost.Looking at the chart above, you find silver in an uptrend. Trend-following strategies are the most common and quite powerful.  Daily Chart of Silver, Silver protection against exuberance:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 11th, 2021.Next, we find physical silver holdings a lot more attractive than any other Silver investment derivatives. Yes, the physical Silver purchase’s actual price is much higher, as indicated in this chart versus the spot price. Since this phenomenon has persisted already for nearly a year and as such is a trend, it should only be interpreted that physical Silver is in higher demand than any holdings where your rewards are paid out in a fiat currency. After all, you want to have wealth preservation against fiat currencies since money printing is also in exuberance. So do not shy away from this factor in regard to the acquisition.Weekly Chart of Silver, Price projection:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 11th, 2021.We find there to be a fair chance that Silver spot prices might advance to the mid fifty range within this year. We would not be surprised for this trend to have a total of five legs reaching just short below three-digit numbers within the upcoming years.Silver protection against exuberanceThere are other ways to protect yourself, like Gold, for example. As much as we find Silver to be very attractive here, the most we care about is illustrating that a proactive stand with a quiet mind is an opportunity right now. Finding yourself shell shocked in hopes the overwhelm might settle and circumstances return to a familiar previous point in time is a dangerous one. We see multiple confirmations in the market that point towards a different future to unfold. Acting on a longer time frame to buy “insurance” for possible hyperinflation and other monetary threats could be a wise decision to ensure your nest egg.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 12th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

The profit maze of Silver - 13.02.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.02.2021 15:55
We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, the real move is still ahead

Bitcoin, the real move is still ahead

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 10.02.2021 12:17
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, The ladder of success:BTC-USD, monthly chart as of February 9th, 2021A part of this story is that those who fear and fight progress, on the other hand, are curious and would like to see some profits for themselves but can’t bring themselves to participate. In the monthly chart above, we can see profit potentials in each time segment illustrated by the percentage.While doubters try to be right, those who take risks make money. Not every story is a success story, but Bitcoin´s past, present, and in our opinion, future as well is more than rosy. BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, The runaway train:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of February 9th, 2021In each of these success stories comes one specific point that has its tricky part from a psychological perspective and, as such, an extra hurdle on how to participate in a market at that particular point of the trend.When advancements seem overbought, but the critical mass of investors is not yet on board, the supply is limited, and peer pressure in the professional market-making forces governments, institutions, hedge funds, banks, and so forth to participate to have a core holding. Everybody hopes for a retracement to get into the move with relatively low risk, but prices join the runaway train.At this point, prices seem already high compared to their origin and the steepness of the trend, but investors often wake up 5-10 years later and can’t believe they didn’t join the party with prices up to higher levels.We recommend to take aggressive entries on smaller time frames and reduce the risk factor by trading small position size. Due to the use of our quad exit strategy and letting runners run and transfer to higher time frames, one can still build a sizeable position over time.The daily chart above depicts such a train entry scenario with entry points at the midline of a linear regression channel.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Bitcoin, the real move is still ahead:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of February 9th, 2021This chart shows what we mentioned as a comment in our last paragraph. Waking up one day and looking back and thinking to oneself: “Why didn’t I buy Google, Amazon, Bitcoin @ $ …, now it is at $…”.There is no need to bet the farm, but just because Bitcoin is trading near US$47,000 doesn’t mean it is expensive. What is costly is shying away from participation just because entering the market here is the most difficult from a psychological perspective.Our 32-month projection price, based on a 4.76 Fibonacci expansion, is pointing towards US$210,000!Bitcoin, the real move is still ahead:A good example is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock trading at US$350,000. Indeed, many have underestimated the immense growth of this stock over the last decade. Think about these price levels for Bitcoin within the next few years …  and beyond! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The profit maze of Silver

The profit maze of Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 07.02.2021 10:35
We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

Bitcoin profits through quad exit strategy

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.02.2021 11:23
We use quad exits to honor the principle of “Choices.” Our approach is an “all in” system with a high expectancy of immediate profits based on the action-reaction principle. We are contrarians and are fading moves. As such, we exit half of the position shortly after entry for small gains to mitigate risk. Then we take another 25% off the position on our first target and another 25% on our 2nd final target.Here are the significant advantages of the Quad Exit Strategy: It is typically getting more and more stressful for the mind through increased fear that gained profits might disappear. The quad exit supplements by making you emotionally an instant winner on your first exit.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Risk taken out before the breakout:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of February 1st, 2021The principle is that the more extended a move, the more extensive the possible snap back to the mean. Fear of missing out on profits tends for amateur traders to either make a tight stop, which takes them out or worse, they use a stop somewhat in the middle, taking quite big profits away and still getting stopped out. Principle-based though is to have either an extensive stop or take a profit target. However, both are very hard to do due to our human psychology. With the Quad Exit Strategy, you erase these hardships. You exit with half to mitigate risk and create a psychological balance following the instinct to cash in. Now you have two segments of each 25% of the total position size still left to be very flexible in maneuvering.The daily chart above shows the various points of interest within a trade sequence. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Volume analysis supportive of runner success:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2021In our personal experience, after the second exit with yet another profit booked, one is very much at ease to let the runner (= the last 25% of the position size) do what it needs to do: RUN!With price sitting right on a high volume analysis support node as seen on the weekly chart above, it’s survival has a good chance. Even if the trend continuation should fail it will get stopped out at break even entry levels and we still took profits on 75% of our original position size.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin profits through Quad exit strategy:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2021.The large time frame chart shows supportive of the trend. With a healthy Fibonacci retracement of .618%, the odds for trend continuation are in favor.Of course, no one knows when a trend is over, but you don’t have to worry using the Quad Exit Strategy.Bitcoin profits through Quad Exit Strategy:Typically, one is glued to the screen when prices go into one’s favor with a biased emotional emphasis on up and downticks. With the Quad Exit Strategy however, you have an emotionally balanced mindset since 75% of the positions are successfully cashed in already. Now you can apply reliable technical analysis for the runner part. That means evaluating how much risk you are willing to take for this position part versus how likely the projections are for it to go further. You can do this unbiased and with a fresh mind. It also allows for wide and accurate stop placement and makes you see the market for what it truly is. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
A million reasons to buy Silver

A million reasons to buy Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 29.01.2021 10:05
Silver, Weekly Chart, Multiyear range break, significant trend, range, and?Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 28th, 2021.We are at such a significant point in history where fundamentals are more important for long term wealth preservation prediction than usual. Here is why:U.S. debt is at US$27 trillion.With the transition of the current presidency and the need to print enormous amounts of money to fund national vaccinations, future monetary expansion is inevitable.Silver is the only deflationary asset that’s left that has lost value since the 1980s. While some investors might think this is a good reason not to buy Silver, a contrarian or counter-intuitive approach would find an opportunity in something so undervalued.The greater the amount of currency in circulation, the greater the potential money flow they can trail into precious metals. When the economy collapses and cashflow comes flowing out of the stock market, it will find its way back into precious metals, and prices will rise.  Gold/Silver Ratio, Monthly Chart, Still room to catch up:Gold-Silver Ratio, monthly chart as of January 28th, 2021.But this isn’t all. As of December 11, 2020, Silver’s one-year price change is up 41.94%, and gold’s one-year price change is up 24.75%. Looking at the monthly Gold/Silver-Ratio chart above, we can see that there is still plenty of room for Silver to catch up. We even have support here right now, which would point out that gold runs first again, and then Silver is under pressure to follow.Monthly Chart of Silver, Forecast:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 28th, 2021.Silver is looking very bullish by not having retraced deep in its sideways range since March of last year (27.5%). Therefore, we find it sensible to look at fundamentals more closely when it comes to larger timeframe target projections. Metal prices are strongly correlated with the economic meltdown. Hence, if the banks are too big to fail and keep forestalling inevitable problems into the future by ongoing money printing, we can continue to see prices remain less than stellar. Only when fear strikes the masses will the money leave the stock market and ultimately find itself into precious metals. Is COVID-19, the pandemic, that catalyst?A million reasons to buy Silver:The disparity between economic conditions in corporate earnings will not post well for equities forever. Investors are building up alternative hedges. We have seen massive profits in Bitcoin. If “exotics” get attention like this, a more radical shift in common alternatives like Silver might be ahead.JP Morgan has decreased their short positions after years of accumulating Silver. It leads one to believe that with rumors of J.P. Morgan’s massive silver accumulation, it’s relinquishing recent silver short positions. It could portend a future where silver prices can no longer be manipulated as they once were, as the main manipulator has decided to cash in.With history changing so fast and a million reasons for owning Silver, it is wise to look at markets from both sides. A fundamental and a technical one. More than ever! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, a peaceful future

Bitcoin, a peaceful future

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 27.01.2021 09:55
Part of the government being able to lend against your savings is the need to deposit your currency into the banking system. You’re forced to do so since it is impracticable to make long-distance financial transactions with cash tucked under your mattress and the risk of theft. Bitcoin allows for long-distance trade in a short time. This, without exposure to the government and as such not vulnerable to devaluation. This is more than just attractive.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, From last week’s chart book:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 18th, 2021Last week we posted this daily chart to find ourselves taking four profitable long entries (posted in real time in our free Telegram channel) within this sliver of a forecasted support zone (see chart below). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Just like Ordered:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 25th, 2021BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Large time frame precision forecasting:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 18th, 2021We also posted this monthly chart (see above) with a single-entry price in our last week’s chartbookpublication. Bitcoin dropped from US$35,770 to US$28,850. It turned around only 38 points below the predicted entry-level of US$28,888. Trading entry risk of less than 0.13 percent (see chart below).BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Extremely low-risk large time frame turning points:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2021We didn’t point this out as our achievement but rather illustrating that Bitcoin is tradeable with high accuracy. It is a likely tradeable instrument. If you are new to this market instrument, we encourage you to educate yourself about its various aspects and possible benefits for your wealth preservation and wealth creation portfolio.We see bitcoin from these levels quickly rising to all-time highs and beyond.Bitcoin, a peaceful futureWe are not naive to realize there is a simplification underlying this hypothesis, but nevertheless, we find it compelling that such a way to peace is at least a possibility. We are confronted with a future from various aspects pointing towards a need to change in a shorter period than we are used to. Finances presenting such a huge element of our life, at least allowing for such a paradigm shift to transpire, is, in our humble opinion, an essentially needed first step and an encouraging thought for a better tomorrow. In other words, as Paul Tudor Jones stated: A Bet on Bitcoin Is a Bet on Human Ingenuity. And he is not alone in pointing towards a better future. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, one system isn’t enough

Silver, one system isn’t enough

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 22.01.2021 11:53
When you start freshly entering the trading arena, it is fascinating that all it takes is pushing a button to be in a winning trade (or a losing one). The ease of participation isn’t the only unusual aspect of trading. In this week’s chartbook, we want to illuminate that many traders fail in assuming that one trading system is sufficient. If you, like many others, have after years of struggle finally established an edge, let’s say through a trend following system approach, you risk getting into serious trouble if a market transform into a multi-year sideways market. With only one screwdriver, it is hard to get a nail into the wall. Silver, one system isn’t enough.No matter if you use someone’s trading system or have developed your own, you need to identify its functionality, strengths, and weaknesses.Your system might be one that only provides entry timing. It could be one that requires for all trading signals the market produces to be taken in their entirety or otherwise mathematical expectancy skewed. You might find yourself using a system that, irrespectivly of market direction, trades price patterns in isolation.Silver, Weekly Chart, Silver, One system isn’t enough, Range trading:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 20th, 2021.The daily chart above shows a sideways range that can be traded both from the short and the long side by looking for support and resistance zones through fractal volume analysis (blue histogram) and then verifying it through an oscillator. Useable for identifying range extremes.We used a Commodity Channel Index oscillator (CCI) developed by Donald Lambert with settings 6/14.The very last setup shows a low risk bullish long entry where we find a good likelihood of a breakout through the upper bounds of the range.  Silver, Daily Chart, Trend trading:Silver in US Dollar, dayly chart as of January 20th, 2021.This daily chart shows a directional move that can be exploited by fading retracements in the trend direction. An indicator helps measure the development of a trend and specific reentry points as well. In this case, a Stochastic pair with settings: 5/3 and 21/10. Useful to identify overbought and oversold trading zones in a directional market. More precisely, you will find the interception points of the vertical lines to the left of the chart matching the low point of the fast settings line of the Stochastic pair. We call this indicator formation “loops,” which are a good additional tool to measure low-risk entry points within the trend.These readings will again come in useful should we break the sideways range. This we expect to be the case in Silver shortly.Silver, Weekly Chart, Silver, one system isn’t enough:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 20th, 2021. bStacking principle-based edges, in a way to identify the appropriate times when each system comes into play, is key as well. This weekly chart gives guidance for direction through linear regression lines. Clearly identifying a long-term trend in Silver (red, blue, green directional lines). Fractal volume analysis of the temporary range in Silver identifies the last weekly long entry to be low risk. We posted this entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel.The key is to know what you are trading. Each trading system has an Achilles heel, and it is essential to see that weakness. Eliminate these vulnerabilities by trading multiple systems. Still, the first step is to know where one needs to look for possible drawdowns. We aim to encourage examining your system in detail where its Achilles heel lays. Do this before the market chops out a leg right under you. Quantify your strategy from this perspective to realize that multiple systems are required. They are required for the various market cycles and market environments. Both on a shorter term and long term basis to not find yourself in a market cycle useless to your approach for a long time.Silver, one system isn’t enough:The benefit of a systematic trading approach is keeping emotions in check in a counterintuitive environment. Once established on a principle basis, it can be a handy tool to be applied to various markets and time frames. It is consequently allowing for flexibility and scalability. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin, no exits necessary

Bitcoin, no exits necessary

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.01.2021 12:04
Well, maybe it isn’t quite that simple. If you want to have both, an income-producing approach and wealth preservation long-term investing strategy, you still need to take partial profits at times; you still need to use a tool like our quad exit. Generally speaking, though, you do not need to worry about exits regarding Bitcoin trading.While bitcoin is consistently exploring new all-time highs since 11/30/2020, many wonder how high will this go. It is even harder to predict good exit points when price enters the uncharted territory of new all-time highs. Wall Street gurus speak of sell points with various six, seven, and eight-figure numbers of all sorts. But isn’t it evident that if Bitcoin reaches these higher echelons, you do not want to sell it? Sell it for what? What would be more interesting to own than Bitcoin if it trades at US$700,000 or US$7,000,000 or US$7,000,000,000? All you want is just to own Bitcoin. It will be the currency that will purchase you whatever you need. Being limited at twenty-one million, Bitcoin is a scarce “digital commodity”.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, Roadmap overview:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of January 18th, 2021The above chart shows in blue to the right in histogram style average volume traded on Bitcoin. We marked in green horizontal lines peak volume regions where bulls and bears had extended battles of buys and sells. Supply and distribution zones. The highest volume peak, called POC (point of control), is marked in a yellow horizontal line. Bitcoin prices will likely see much higher price levels than recent all-time highs, but we find a roadmap like this essential. A market crash in the stock market could temporarily drag Bitcoin along, but Bitcoin will recover with much vigor and quick speed. In such a scenario, these supply zones will provide an opportunity for reload entries to the runners which we are already holding as a core position. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Time cycle and Fibonacci projections:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 18th, 2021Bitcoin is consolidating right now, and we see a bottom to be established soon. Afterwards Bitcoin might be heading towards the recent highs, followed by a breakthrough again. The weekly chart above tries to keep the bigger picture in check. We stacked exit odds projections by using a time cycle instrument and a Fibonacci extension tool. We shared the target numbers of where we find partial profit-taking sensible over the next six years marked in red to the chart’s right. But let the runners (the last 25% of each initial position) run! No exits are necessary for those.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Real-time partial profit prediction zones:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of January 18th, 2021Zooming now into a smaller time frame, we are trying to illustrate on this daily chart how these volume measurement tools (available in almost all charting software packages) can also help to predict partial profit-taking zones. To the right, we plotted volume again, to the left mirrored green box zones show sensible profit taking zones should bitcoin prices retrace. After smart entry places those zones are needed to take some profit off the table.But that isn’t all. With a volume histogram open like this, you can see distribution zones establishing in real-time. Establish meaningfulness by comparing the volume peak levels with prior peaks. This volume analysis approach is advantageous when bitcoin should be extending in new all-time high territory again.Bitcoin, no exits necessaryAt Midas Touch, we advise our clients to hold a portion of their wealth in Bitcoin. We use the quad exit strategy as a risk reduction tool for entries. We do recommend taking partial profits if income-producing profit-taking fits your investment style. But in general, we are holding on to what we call runners, the last 25 % of a trading position, and while we have in any other commodity exit targets for those as well when it comes to Bitcoin, we just let them run add infinity.In other words, while one was thinking in the last hundred years of one’s wealth and profits measured in fiat currencies, it might be sensible to now instead think of one’s net worth in Bitcoin! Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops

Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 14.01.2021 19:07
Silver is trading sideways. Time to evaluate stops and targets. When the mind is overwhelmed due to data overload or too many variables in a probable outcome, it likes to simplify. In its extreme, it resorts to intuitive responses like fight-flight. What is overwhelm? In most cases, it is an emotional response to an unsolved problem. For trading, this means a data stream evaluation that accumulates to too many questions and results in a desire for simplicity. In the case of exits, most beginning and intermediate traders resort to a support and resistance stop. But that is a very simple way to get taken out of the market. Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops.It is foolish to find a rigid module like a line in the sand (a single price level) in a game with a high degree of variables. Variables that are in constant flux in a dynamic model. Driven by collective psychology, even irrational at times. It would be best if you had real likelihoods based on movement in price, volume and time (at a minimum).If you learn how to drive a car, the dynamics aren’t just pushing the various pedals at the appropriate time. After years of experience, you find the deciding value of surviving this game to be all surrounding factors. For example, slowing down when you see children playing near the street or in heavy rain on the freeway. You create more distance between the car in front of you if its driver is swerving and you suspect a drunk driver. You can feel if something is wrong, but it isn’t an intuitive response due to feeling overwhelmed. It is a subconscious filled with many rules that you have over time hip pocketed that in their sum alarm you to slow down or even stop.Silver, Daily Chart, Stacking Odds:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of January 13th, 2021.A traffic route needs readjustments in the event of a new force affecting traffic. Trading targets are affected by real-time factors, as well. Aspects like new data releases, momentum, volume, and price behavior as a whole. This, in alignment with the time component, weakens a static approach that tries to insist on a simple number of a support resistance price level. To get to a more accurate probability prediction, one needs first to widen a single target number to a target zone (A, B). A zone that is more in alignment with a distribution zone based on prior fractals.Most importantly, look at the way of how prices move towards such zones. An action-reaction principle comes into play if prices moved fast towards a distribution zone (C). In turn, this increases the likelihood of a bounce. On the other side of the spectrum, a slow directional creep of prices much more easily can penetrate a support/resistance price zone.  Silver, Weekly Chart, Exit Management:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of January 13th, 2021.Proper exit management requires a similar complex strategy mixed of experience and a clearly defined approach of targets versus a flawed system of a support and resistance trailing stop.In the weekly chart above, you can see an example of how targets and stop levels change throughout time. Directional support resistance lines update with each candle printing. Standard deviation bands, which work great for the Silver market, are moving along with price behavior. They also work as flexible target and stop levels.Silver, Monthly Chart, Target accuracy versus support and resistance stops:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 14th, 2021.Right now, Silver is trading sideways. It is important to know when to get out with our established positions. We post those in real time in our free Telegram channel.Entries are exits, and exits are entries. In principle, your entry system can be applied for your partial profit-taking as well. It is futile to try to pick tops and bottoms; resorting to an inadequate support resistance approach isn’t a lucrative solution.You want to stack odds in your favor. Also, a core element is a multi exit approach. It provides choices widening one’s possibility to catch larger moves (see our quad exit strategy). Certainly, counter signals at the same time frame are an excellent way to take some profits off the table.When prices trade in regions that it has traded in before, you might consider tools like fractal analysis, linear regression channels (A), and fixed range volume analysis (B). These, amongst others, to identify high probability supply and demand distribution zones.Should prices trade at all-time highs, the main focus needs to be on momentum analysis, counter signals on the same and higher time frames as the entry and signal time frame, and tools like Fibonacci extensions. Volume analysis is a precious component to determine where it is wise to lighten up the load. Novices predict price level. For instance, an analysis where one expects a high probability in time when price changes direction, is more valuable in opposition to a fixed price zone.Target accuracy versus support and resistance stopsExits are the holy grail of trading. In alignment with risk control, they determine the level of profitability. For most, it is here where the rubber meets the road. Above all, exits are the deciding factor if a system is consistent (winning) or an endless string of losers. Here, an advanced system approach that takes many analysis factors into account brings actual value to your trading results.Targets are changing quite substantially through time. The market is in motion, and as such, forces in play need constant reevaluation to be genuinely accurate in their probabilities. Just like driving a car, you can’t just expect to reach your destination each time to work the same way. It would be best if you considered all factors. From the health of the driver to the mechanical condition of the car. From traffic and weather conditions to any unexpected influencing factors of each ride. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands

Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.01.2021 12:11
Jesse Livermore said: “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.” Easier said than done. We are wired to take quick small profits and find it as such extremely difficult to sit through lengthy-time periods to ensure larger profits should a trade develop into a sustainable trend.While trailing stops most often fail being set too tight motivated again by the fear of losing one’s gains, one solution is our quad exit method that we use in our free telegram channel in which we post-trade entries and exits in real-time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Taking profits into the extended move:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 9th, 2021Here is an example of the application of this psychological and money management tool. We entered a long trade on April 15th last year at US$6,726. Shortly thereafter, we took partial profits to erase risk at US$6,993 and locked in some more profits at US$7,248. This did not just provide for solid trade results. Most of all it satisfied the psychological hunger to now be able to sustain the idea of “sitting on one’s hands”. With a preset like this, we were able to let the remaining position size of twenty-five percent, fittingly named “the runner”, do its thing. We exited the trade last week on 1/9/2021 at US$40,729 (a 506% profit). An exhaustion move with a confirmed counter directional signal on a larger time frame warranted to do so. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Ten runners still on the move:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 9th, 2021 bStill, we would be in trouble without another additional methodology in play. We call these reloads. Far from a typical form of a high-risk methodology of pyramiding, this way of adding an individual low-risk trade allows for ending up with multiple runners should a trend develop as it has over the last three quarters in Bitcoin.With this methodology, there is no need to pick tops and bottoms. Surviving runners extend into building a large position size. In the same way, partial profit-taking of such a position through closing out trades, meaning reducing overall position size is possible. Useful if possible trend exhaustion, distribution zones, or otherwise target zones establish themselves throughout the upward move.The weekly chart above shows with yellow arrows entry points of trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel where we still have the runner portion exposed to the market. It is this combination of tools we apply that allows us to be left with choices. This in regard to additional entries and various partial profit taking points. It allows us to let a good portion ride while sitting on our hands.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s hands:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of January 10th, 2021 cNow that the cat is out of the bag and mass media has pointed out Bitcoin´s staggering gains last week, professionals typically fade the money coming in from amateurs stimulated by the hype. But not so fast. Are we seeing Bitcoin’s typical extreme retracement? In the weekly chart above we have identified four (A to D) major retracement support zones.All-time new highs from 2017, retested in November last year near US$19,888 (D).The most dominant supply zone marked by a “POC” of the 4th leg up volume analysis near $23,512 (C).Fibonacci retracement 0.618 with price zone near US$27,392 (B).Fibonacci retracement 0.786 with price zone near US$33,945 (A)Yes, we had a four-leg move up from US$3,782 and we are extended without a doubt, but who says we won’t find ourselves in a few years at levels tenfold from here. Livermore was right in his approach of sitting on one’s hands. Luckily our approach takes the worry and guesswork out of these debates. We let the runners run. Should we see a deep retracement we get additional low-risk entries with their runners possibly surviving as well. And yes, if you are relying on an, in part, income-producing system this is certainly a spot right here to take partial profits off the sum of your runners. What is not wise is to tighten stops here or typically place them somewhere where they are emotionally comfortable in the middle and have the typical experience that they just get nicked out before prices advance further again.Bitcoin riches through sitting on one’s handsJesse Livermore also said: “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.” With the above-described methodology, one doesn’t need to. This self-regulatory system allows taking the agony of being right, the need for perfect timing, and most of all the hardship of not letting the cash register ring out of the equation. Livermore also stated: “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon”. We find that the illustrated approach is one way to circumvent the difficulties of participating in a steep trend without its typical pitfalls. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Silver, you got to know how!

Silver, you got to know how!

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.01.2021 13:47
We have identified the most commonly made mistake in technical analysis to be the representation. Representation equals psychology! Psychology being the most important aspect of trading means that the way charts are represented is extremely important. Rarely do we see trading supportive setups. Silver, you got to know how!Here are a few tips we find useful to get the best out of your chart space.Less is not always more.In our opinion charts from cell phones are useless. Their aspect ratios and general size do not allow for the professional to translate into a decision-making process that is conducive to execution. While larger handheld devices and small laptops are an upgrade to these stamp size representations, we still vote for a multi-screen trade setup for the following reasons. For back testing and chart analysis you want to see nuances of various time frames represented next to each other.For execution, you want a quiet workspace meaning it isn’t conducive to flip between workspaces or expand and collapse windows. Take small time frames. Sorting and execution windows should be outside your main visual sensory field as they produce a lot of data leading to data exhaustion over time. Split widescreen monitors into halves or thirds because stretched chart windows distort the ratio to the point that trend and range differentiation are hard to make out. This being one of the most important things to read out of a chart.Silver, Monthly Arithmetic Chart. Silver, you got to know how!Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Another aspect little known is the principle on how to use arithmetic versus logarithmic charts. You want to use arithmetic charts for shorter time segments to have an accurate representation of trends and ranges. For long term monthly data, it is advisable to use logarithmic representation. This is due to the fact that event proportions get swallowed once price ranges are stretched.Let us illustrate. If you compare the above arithmetic chart, from exactly ten years ago with the logarithmic one below, you will find a vast difference in how one can interpret price movement at first glance. Looking at a larger time segment with vast price movement the arithmetic representation “swallows” data through compression. What is interpreted as insignificant noise (to the very left of the chart) in the arithmetic chart, with a two-year sideways segment, becomes significant in the logarithmic chart where one can see much more clearly that we had a major downtrend of a 32% price drop.  Silver, Monthly Chart, Logarithmic, Silver, you got to know how!Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Secondly, the logarithmic representation shows much more clearly that from this price drop low at US$4.05 a clear uptrend established. This with two major up legs advancing to US$49.83, representing a 1,130% gain.Silver, Monthly Chart. Starting the year with a large time frame overview:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of January 7th, 2021.Why a correct representation like this is significant becomes obvious when looking at the present time. The recent directional advancement of Silver prices is birthed out of a previous 34% drop. This is even more significant if you include the quick washout, represented by the down wick, which accounts for a 45% drop. Prices have more than doubled since those lows. Enough reason to look in the past of Silver price behavior at the beginning of possible longer trends. Without the use of a logarithmic presentation, one might have not ever noticed a possible similarity.In short, it is essential once looking at larger time stretches on larger time frame charts to consider the use of a logarithmic representation. Otherwise, you might lose analysis opportunity through chart compression.Technology marketing tries to sell us all sorts of gadgets blinding us to believe that technological toys empower a better trading result. Wrong! Do not get lured into trading on the fly from your cell phone while driving. Trading is like a competitive sport. You do not win a gold medal at the Olympics while texting your buddies. If you want to win the game of market participation you need to dedicate your time in a quiet space with appropriate tools.Silver, you got to know how!Execution requires a maximum reduced data density to keep some powder dry for mental capacity in case of surprises, distractions, and other abnormalities to not get into a stress-induced reactionary intuitive field but rather stay focused. Only an anticipatory rule-based execution in this counterintuitive environment leads to success. This principle demands a chart representation as quiet as possible to keep data overloads at a minimum. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The freedom through Silver

The freedom through Silver

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 18.12.2020 19:28
There are many benefits of owning physical Silver. We mentioned in prior chartbooks various benefits for Silver as a wealth preservation method. Another field of assurance is the protection of your privacy through untraceable transactions. What is mentioned less is the independence from the grid. We got used to the conveniences of the modern world, but imagine a scenario where you simply out of electricity. Just the loss of your smartphone can be a dilemma. A step further being that the dependency on a computer should not have that much power you not being able to purchase groceries or gasoline. The freedom through Silver.What we mean to say is that in case of hyperinflation where cash renders its value, Gold and Bitcoin might not be enough of a hedge.Silver, Daily Chart, Last weeks high probability assumption held true:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 11th, 2020We posted the above daily chart in last week’s Silver chartbook publication. In addition we guided this anticipated price move manifesting, through our “Silver daily calls” with real-time entries posted in our free Telegram channel. Silver, Daily Chart, A week later:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 17th, 2020The market kindly moved as planned. A gentle dip of price shortly after the publication of the chartbook into the extremely low-risk entry zone (support) allowed for core position establishment. Followed by partial profit-taking based on our quad exit strategy to eliminate risk. Allowing (in addition to reload positions) for remainder position size to possibly see higher price levels for further targets.A conservative method for position building and consistent profit-taking.Silver, Weekly Chart, Clean chart:Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2020Stepping away from the noise of smaller time frames and exploring the larger picture, we can see that Silver is trading very clean and precise. As volatile as this instrument is trading on intraday charts it is due to its high liquidity one to be relied on through thorough technical analysis.A closer look at the weekly time frame reveals a steep move up starting in March this year. For a stunning 156 percentage gain. From the high price retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level to build there a eleven-week wide double bottom. This marked the bottom of a bull flag which two weeks later broke through its upper resistance line.Most importantly is the volume analysis of this entire move, which substantiates the newfound support. It is precisely in the middle of the sideways trading zone between US$26 and US$22, at US$24.14. Consequently, we find this to be the most likely bounce point for the next retracement. A low-risk entry point in case you are not positioned just yet. With this precision trading in the present and past, projections into the future become higher probable. “A=B” is as such our next major target point identified. We took the liberty to point out assumed resistance points along the way until we reach this target. Silver prices for possible partial profit-taking in assumed distribution zones.The larger time frame shows a high probability of this last turning point one to be counted on. This warrants for a physical silver acquisition that has a good chance to in time provide for the mentioned conveniences and freedom of being independent. Consequently, there is also a strong likelihood to add to your wealth preservation a degree of wealth growth.The freedom through Silver:What represents the most power of a commodity barter is its accessibility when you need it and the independence within limiting circumstances. With a possibility of rising princes per ounce for precious metals, Gold will be even in small denominations not ideal for smaller transactions. Consequently, Silver takes over a major role. In times where governments can control the internet and natural disasters or cyberattacks can wipe out electricity supplies for lengthy periods, holding physical Silver seems a no-brainer for diversified wealth preservation and day-to-day liberties. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin – mastering the turning point

Bitcoin – mastering the turning point

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.12.2020 12:04
What we mean with the very first is that only for the reversal pattern of a “V” formation one wants to be the very first one to enter into a trade. This is the rarest occurrence of a turning point and for any other tuning points i.e.: double/triple bottoms, ranges, diamonds, rounding bottoms, divergences to name a few you’re always too early and as such not just a sitting duck for possible stops to be triggered but have additional risk due to capital exposed over time.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, No need to be first:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 15th, 2020In the daily chart, we can see our principle in action. Shorting the market on a triple top into the distribution resistance zone (red box) would make you a sitting duck. A closer look shows prices already trading above POC (point of control) of a volume analysis, indicating strength. This is confirmed by a strong trend overall (yellow trend line) and strong price behavior (daily price closes are indicating strength). You do not want to be always first just based on a price level. It requires more in-depth analysis and stacking of odds to enter or exit positions. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Overbought:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 15th, 2020A view from a linear regression perspective (directional lines red, turquoise, green) shows how extended prices are in the weekly time frame. It puts Bitcoin into a sell zone. Bitcoin is trading in stretched standard deviation levels and could easily snap back to its mean (thin red line). Taking partial profits if exposed from lower levels provides insurance for a possible retracement. Our quad exit strategy provides a guideline on taking profits like this.Nevertheless, recent weeks still point towards price behavior that indicates strength like last week’s candlestick hammer formation.BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, And the winner is:BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 15th, 2020As always the bigger picture is what matters most. Looking back, Bitcoin has accomplished what most doubted. Its biggest opponents have joined the club and invested now themselves. This left us trading at 2017 highs and congesting there. Clearly representing strength. The monthly chart above shows that with the past “W” formation alone a presence of probabilities is set that makes even the worst scenario (a retracement to 14k) attractive (white dotted line). The highest likelihood is a breakout through all-time highs. This, in turn, allows for a continuation move to higher price levels (turquoise dotted line).Bitcoin - mastering the turning pointFrom the three most dominant aspects of trading (price, volume, and time), time seems to be the most overlooked in the trading approach. Traders are in principle too early in and out of trades. It is essential to at least add an edge like a volume analysis or otherwise high probability strategy if one trades form a price level perspective. Especially to not be caught by professionals who are aware of amateurs trading a support resistance approach only. At Midas Touch, we employ a complex stacking of odds to cut through a turning point in an effective way extracting low-risk entry points at the appropriate time. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The Silver Permabull

The Silver Permabull

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 11.12.2020 11:08
As experienced traders, you rarely want to take an extreme position. Being biased isn’t useful for objective chart analysis. Many dare to do that anyhow since no one remembers you making a bad call 15 years ago, but if you were right you can quote: “I told you so”. The other side of the coin is that trend needs to be identified early and then played just right since there is no grander edge than directional momentum. The Silver Permabull. We aren’t after fame and glory. Midas Touch provides data as accurately as possible supporting good wealth preservation and wealth creation. We provided many principles and data about Silver over the last two years to shed light on a possible bull run in Silver. It was spot on to advise entries in March when Silver was trading still at US$12.00. We also provided readers with quite a few more low-risk entries. These to build a long term position with remainder runners (see our quad exit strategy) for the long term hold. Silver, Weekly Chart, The second leg: Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 10th, 2020 Now that we have the first successful leg with substantial profit-taking completed, we find a high likelihood for continuation into a possible second leg. After a sideways zone from September this year we see a progression from the lows of this sideways channel through its range. After that a possible initiation through a breakout of its upper bounds into a second leg. Our projections are extremely conservative since typically second legs are the longest legs and as such a doubling in price from here is more than likely.     Silver, Daily Chart, May be like this: Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 11th, 2020 It isn’t quite clear how the painted scenario of much higher prices will unfold from a small time frame perspective. We drew the most likely scenario above on the daily chart. This, that or the other entries will be posted in our free Telegram channel in real-time. The emphasis here is on the general probability. It points from a seasonality perspective to typically higher prices in December and January for this commodity. Typical year end hiccups especially this year can not distract the professional from the larger picture. Silver, Monthly Chart, Where are we heading? Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of December 11th, 2020 Where thinking in extremes starts making sense is in not limiting projections, if reasonable substantiated factors speak for extended moves. These can have beyond the typical three-legged extensions a fourth and a fifth leg as well. Here it is important to add to technical tools fundamental analysis. Why extremes in this one rare instance are useful is that exits are way more meaningful than entries. Realistic target assessment is the key factor of profitability. One fundamental fact about Silver easily overlooked is its rarity in comparison versus other precious metals in terms of “loss”. What we mean by “loss” is that in terms of weight there is about twice as much mined Silver in bullion in the world than Gold. But the rate of “loss” due to industrial use is much grander than Golds. From over fifty billion troy ounces ever mined, less than five billion remain. It is important to keep that in mind when comparing the estimate of about forty times Silver in weight being still unmined in comparison to Gold. In short, due to the high industrial demand for Silver and its high “loss” rate (it is hard to recycle), it qualifies from a long-term view as a permabull´s friend. It is this “loss” rate that can make it more and more precious over time. Silver the permabull You can call it what you like. What it comes down to is taking low-risk trades. If you can do so in the direction of a trend, even better. After Silver broke a multiyear sideways range to the upside a new long-term phase for Silver has been confirmed. With a trend on your side in alignment with fundamentals that are substantially supporting especially physical Silver long-term holds, you can not only preserve your wealth but also expand your wealth too. An opportunity that arises rarely and might be suitable for a permabull. We post real time entries and exits for the silver market in our free Telegram channel. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Korbinian Koller|December 11th, 2020|Tags: low risk, Silver, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments
Bitcoin riches through a routine

Bitcoin riches through a routine

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.12.2020 19:24
For some, the hair stands up when they hear the word “routine”. For market participants, it is one of the best ways to stop losing money. How often have you violated your best intentions? “I will never run a stop again”. “I will be patiently waiting for my target and not exit too early”. “Why did I not wait for my entry signal and not…”. The list is long and still, you feel like Sisyphus despite best intentions violating your own rules over and over and over again. Why? Bitcoin riches through a routine. The reason being that under stress is that we resort to our unconscious mind where we run programmed patterns. The subconscious being stronger than our motivations will always win. The only chance one has is to reprogram these patterns and that is best done by a daily routine that repeats as often as it takes to overpower the old subconscious unuseful programming. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Holding on to long positions: BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2020 Looking at the weekly chart, anybody exited their trades early, must with agony look back asking “why didn’t I just ride the trend”. This agony will continue if a better routine isn’t implemented. We developed a quad exit strategy that supports better exit management from a psychological perspective. With prices quintupling since March this year, we currently do not see low-risk entry points. We also do not find ourselves forced just yet to take further partial profits with Bitcoin showing continuous strength even at these levels. BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, One last time: BTC-USDT, daily chart as of December 7th, 2020 If you give the second weekly chart a look, in last week’s Bitcoin chartbook publication you will see that we forecasted a bounce at US$18,089. This prognostic manifested as the above daily chart shows in detail and we were able to post this trade in our free telegram channel. The already partial profits taken ensuring risk elimination and as such a free your mind to enjoy unencumbered position management for the remaining position. This is also a fruit of routine. A weekly routine, that we share through our weekly publications. The daily chart shows that prices push into the distribution zone from the highs in 2017 (red horizontal box). A volume analysis for prices of the last two weeks shows support at US$19,045. The signs of strength for prices not immediately bouncing with this strong overhead shows a strength that makes us hold on to our entire long exposure. This allows for further profits should prices break to new all-time highs without the need to open a new high-risk breakout trade. BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart, It is worth it: BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2020 It doesn’t stop there. Just like the lack of a business plan is a near grantee of failure to a business, long term routines in trading are essential. Only with a clear vision from a top-down approach in time frame addressed routinely, warrants for a successful outcome. If you have a brief look at our chart book from October 6th 2020, you will find detailed target anticipation from a timing perspective which came to fruition with astounding accuracy. At Midas Touch, we pride ourselves to go the extra mile to not procrastinate in all time aspects of disciplined planning. That being said, the above chart is an extension in the forecast, this time from a price prediction perspective. We employ partial profit-taking based on our quad exit strategy. Bitcoin riches through a routine One can’t expect to overwrite a useful strong subconscious pattern like fight-flight which urges us strongly to take early profits. For that, a solution like our quad exit strategy is more useful. For any self-inflicted limiting belief though, a daily routine can be the cure for a long painful past in the markets where well-intended motivations were not effective to stop money-losing behavior in the markets.  Diligent practice and repetitive rehearsal as professional athletes do, does the trick. The importance is to accept this being a bit more work than just making up your mind and promise to not do the unwanted behavior ever again but rather rehearsing the newly wanted behavior for an extended period in your daily routine. We post real time entries and exits for many cryptocurrencies in our free Telegram channel. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Korbinian Koller|December 8th, 2020|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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