Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson started his career in 1996 as an equities trader focusing on the US and Asian markets with BG Bank, London. In 1997, Kim relocated to BG Bank, Copenhagen (BG Bank was acquired by Danske Bank in 2000) to the position of equities trader and portfolio manager. 

Kim began using technical analysis as a trading tool from 1997. In 2005, Kim was promoted to the position of technical analyst in the FX & Fixed Income Research department at Danske Bank. In his current role, Larsson focuses on technical analysis of equities, equity indexes, forex pairs, and more for Saxo Bank. Larsson’s views and analyses can be found on Saxo’s News & Research hub as well as at Saxo’s Academy where he hosts webinars focusing on chart analysis.

UK Jobs Report Strengthens Case for June Rate Hike and Signals Caution on Rate Cuts

DAX and EuroStoxx 50 - technical analysis by Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 17.04.2023 15:20
Summary:  April has started out well on the Stock market and the positive vibe could continue for a few more weeks. EuroStoxx50 within few cents to test all-time highs. DAX could test its all-time high in coming weeks. DAX uptrend is intact and with no RSI divergence the Index could continue to strong resistance at around 16,290A close below 15,482 is likely to put the uptrend on pause possibly even lead to a correction down to around 15K.Medium-term uptrend is weakening with divergence on RSI but an RSI close above its falling trendline could challenge that picture. If that scenario plays out DAX could all-time highs at around 16,290.To reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 14,458 is needed   Source all charts and data: Saxo Group GER40 cfd levels. Upside potential to 16,298. A close below 15,479 could lead to a correction down to around 15K Read next: What have Fed speakers said recently? This week Netflix, SAP, Nokia, Volvo and other big names report their earnings| FXMAG.COM EuroStoxx50 likely to test all-time highs at around 4,415. A correction could be seen if hitting that level, but the uptrend will be intact unless Stoxx50 closes below 4,286 which can lead to a sell-off down to around 4,150A close above 4,415 could further fuel the buying interest and lift the Index to around the 1.618 projection at 4,536. Source: Technical analysis DAX EuroStoxx50 GER40 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The Commodities Feed: Brent Breaks Above $80, Energy Market Dynamics and Trade Data Analysis

Precious metals: technical analysis of gold and silver by Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 31.03.2023 12:29
Summary:  Gold range bound after reaching 2K but points to much higher levels. Silver in steep trend closing in on strong resistance.Gold/Silver ratio in big correction that could soon be over. Gold seems range bound between 1,934 and 2,010 and a break out is needed for direction. If breaking out to the downside it is likely merely just be a correction down to 0.618 retracement at 1,883 before uptrend resumes.If breaking out to the upside there is short-term potential to previous highs around 2,078 which is also the 1.764 projection of the last larger correction. RSI is showing Divergence meaning the last highest close was not supported by a higher close on RSI which indicates a weakening of the trend and could suggest a larger correction for Gold. Source all charts and data: Saxo Group Medium-term there is also RSI divergence but Gold trend is up, and if weekly RSI breaks above its falling trendline the divergence is likely to be cancelled (traded out) and Gold set for higher levels. Monthly chart i.e., medium- to longer term: No RSI divergence and is still showing positive sentiment and if RSI closes back above 60 threshold it is a strong indication we will see much higher prices in gold. If Gold closes above 2,075 there is potential to 2,245 – 2,352. For Gold to demolish and reverse this scenario a close below 1,800. Gold is above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area) on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode. Silver in a steep rising trend with no RSI divergence suggesting Silver is to trade higher. A test of February peak at around 24.63 is likely before a correction. Weekly RSI is positive and about to break back above 60 indicating higher Silver prices. A move to the strong resistance area 25.85-26.45 is in the cards. The latter level is also the 1.382 projection of the Q1 2023 correction. Positive weekly RSI and MACD about to turn bullish supports the Bullish Silver picture.However, the bullish move could be a bit slow or sluggish, the 55 and 100 weekly MA’s are still declining whereas the 21 and the 200 MA’s are rising which is an indication of and underlying indecisive sentiment. However, to reverse this bullish trend a close above 19.90 is needed. Medium- to longer term. If Silver closes above 24.65 uptrend has been confirmed and previous peaks around 30 is likely to be tested. Resistance at around 26.95. Silver is above the Cloud on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode.  Gold/Silver ratio broke below its rising trendline after reaching 0.786 retracement at 91.80. The current decline could drop to the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 maybe dipping down to touch the support at around 80.61 before a rebound. Medium-term. Weekly RSI still showing positive sentiment (needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse to negative) so if Silver bounces from the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 to resume uptrend Silver could be set for a test of the strong resistance at around 96.But if Silver continues below 81 to close a week below 79 Silver is likely to test key strong support at around 74.57. Source: Technical analysis Gold Silver and Ratio | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Taming the Dollar: Assessing Powell's Hawkish Tone Amidst BRICS Expansion

AEX25, BEL20 and CAC40 - technical analysis by Kim Cramer Larsson

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 30.03.2023 14:30
Summary:  AEX25, BEL20 and CAC40 have reversed downtrends but Strength and Sentiment Indicator haven't yet confirmed it. But if buyers can stay in control previous peaks are in sight AEX25 is back above 55 daily MA and the resistance at around 747.50 currently testing the 0.618 retracement.RSI is still showing negative sentiment and must close above 60 to reverse that. But if AEX closes above 748 the Index is in an uptrend that could take the Index to test the upper Cloud span A. A close above is likely to push AEX higher towards February peak at around. 777. But if RSI is rejected at 60 threshold AEX could experience a set back down to around 730. IF closing below 727 bear trend is resumed with support at around 712. Source all charts and data: Saxo Group BEL20 is testing 0.618 retracement and the lower part of the Cloud – Span B at 3,795. RSI is still in negative sentiment suggesting we could see a correction in BEL20 from current levels possibly down to around 3,700.But the short-term trend is up and if BEL20 closes above 55 daily MA and RSI closes above 60 it will give the uptrend further energy. BEL20 could test January peak at around 3,792.However, if BEL20 closes back below 3,690 downtrend is likely to resume. CAC40 is back above the Cloud testing 0.786 retracement and RSI is still showing negative sentiment. RSI must to close above 60 to reverse that. However, the short-term trend is up and CAC 40 could very well test all-time high once again.If CAC40 closes above all-time highs at around 7,491 there is potential up to around 7,632.However, if CAC40 slides back below 55 daily SMA and RSI is being rejected at 60 threshold  bear trend is likely to resume. Source: Technical analysis AEX25 BEL20 CAC40 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
UK Jobs Report Strengthens Case for June Rate Hike and Signals Caution on Rate Cuts

Kim Cramer Larsson talks Hang Seng Index, HK50 and FTSE China A50

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 17.03.2023 13:56
Hang Seng Index selling pressure seems to be running out of steam just above the support at around 18,814. The support could be tested however as the trend is still down. But RSI is showing divergence indicating an exhaustion of the downtrend.A rebound could struggle to get traction however. There is strong overhead resistance at the lower Cloud span at 19,767 and at 19,900.However, if the falling trendline is broken and Hang Seng closes above 19,900 the Index could experience a rally up to around 21K . A close above 21,000 will confirm uptrend. Hang Seng Index Source all charts and data: Saxo Group Read next: Wage agreement may be game-changing in a way. First meeting of the new BoJ Governor Ueda takes place on April 28th| FXMAG.COM HK50 The HK50 cfd has been range bound in a tight range the past 6 trading days testing strong support at 19,031. A close below 19K is likely to extend the downtrend to 18,000-17,693.A close above the upper falling trendline could fuel a rally to the 55 daily MA around 20,800. A close above 21,015 will confirm new uptrend FTSE China A50 FTSE China A50 future is almost hugging the lower falling trendline in the falling channel like pattern just above key support at around 12,787.A close below 12,787 could fuel a sell-off down to 12K area with some support at round 12,415.If A50 find buyers the upper falling trendline could be tested but for A50 to reverse this down trend the minimum requirement is a close above. The 55 daily MA will provide some resistance meaning it could be a struggle for A50 to establish an uptrend.A close above 13,651 will confirm uptrend Source: Technical analysis Hang Seng HK50 China A50 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Nasdaq 100 posted a new one year high. S&P 500 ended the day unchanged

Kim Cramer Larsson takes a technical look at Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones and Russel 2000

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 17.03.2023 11:49
Summary:  Nasdaq 100 turned bullish and is set for higher levelsS&P 500 still caught in sideways range. Can it break it?Dow Jones and Russell 200 in downtrends bouncing from supports. Strong overhead resistance Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team Nasdaq 100 Nasdaq 100 closed above short-term falling trendline and more importantly above 12,467 thereby resuming uptrend. RSI back above 60 confirms the bullish mood that has potential to move the Index above February peak and higher. If Nasdaq closes above 12,881 there is no strong resistance until around 13,667 just a few cents above the 1.618 projection of the February correction. For Nasdaq 100 to reverse this bullish picture a close below 11,695 Source all charts and data: Saxo Group USNAS100 cfd levels. Bullish trend. Upside potential to 13,721 if breaking above 12,895. A move back below 12,179 will put the Index into neutral and a close below 11,668 will reverse the trend. Read next: FX Daily: Data dependent or financial stability dependent?| FXMAG.COM S&P 500 S&P 500 has bounced from the 0.786 retracement and back above 200 daily MA. The Index is facing some resistance at the cloud at 3,980 but if S&P 500 closes back above 55 daily MA the falling trendline is to be challenged. A close above the trendline could fuel a rally that is likely to take out 4,079 thus confirming a bullish trend. A close above 4,079 is likely to push RSI back above 60 threshold underlining the uptrend.A close below 3,808 will demolish and reverse this scenario US500 cfd is testing the lower cloud span at 3,980 and the upper falling trendline in a falling channel pattern. A break above and a break above 55 daily Moving Average is likely push US500 towards 4,100. A close above 4,380 could see US500 to challenge the 4,195 with potential to 4,308 A close below 3,808 will confirm the downtrend. Dow Jones Dow Jones Index is in a confirmed downtrend but bouncing from the support at around 31,738. RSI is still showing negative sentiment and the Index is below 200 MA.The current bounce could take Dow Jones above the 200 MA but will face resistance both at the 55 daily MA coming down and the lower Cloud span at 33,642. For Dow Jones to reverse to an uptrend a close above 33,572 is needed.If Dow Jones drops back below 31,429 down trend will continue  with next support at around 30,206. Russell 2000 Russell 2000 small cap Index bounced yesterday strongly from key support at around 1,722 forming a Bullish Engulfing bottom and reversal candle which strongly indicates further bounce is likely. Strong resistance at around 1,825 and at around 1,865.A close below 1,716 is likely to extend the downtrend to support at around 1,653. Source: Technical analysis SP500 Nasdaq100 DowJones Russell2000 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The Commodities Feed: US announces SPR purchase

Crude oil: Kim Cramer Larsson presents technical analysis of Brent and WTI

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 16.03.2023 12:37
Summary:  Brent and WTI Crude oil have taken out key supports confirming downtrend both short- and medium-term. there could be 10-15% further downside for oil Brent Crude oil has resumed downtrend by taking out minor support at around 75.60 and the December lows at around 75.11. RSI back below 40 is confirming new downtrend.A downtrend that could take Brent to strong support level at 65 close to the 0.618 retracement of the entire uptrend since Q2 2020. Minor support at around 69.24 close to the 1.382 projection of the Triangle like pattern Brent formed December-March.For Brent to reverse the bearish trend a close above 86.75 is needed. Source all data and charts: Saxo group   WTI Crude oil. After being range bound for several weeks WTI took out minor support at 72.45 and key support at 70.00 resuming downtrend. WTI has reached 0.382 retracement of the entire uptrend since Q2 2020 where it went to minus 40.32. But further downside should be expected.Daily and weekly RSI is back below 40 threshold confirming the bearish picture that is likely to take WTI down to support at around 61.80 possibly dipping down to support at around 57.25. Read next: S&P 500 shrank 0.7% yesterday, Nasdaq gained 0.42%. European Central Bank decides on the interest rate today| FXMAG.COMTo reverse this bearish trend WTI needs to close above 79.90   Source: Technical analysis Brent oil WTI crude oil | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Kim Cramer Larsson takes a technical look at Bitcoin and Ethereum

Kim Cramer Larsson takes a technical look at Bitcoin and Ethereum

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 16.02.2023 16:42
Summary:  Bitcoin and Ethereum are testing key resistance levels after a strong comeback. But they could be caught being range bound before break out Bitcoin BTCUSD is close to test resistance at around 25K. A break above could extend the uptrend to next resistance at around 28K but would have potential up to the upper range of the Consolidation area at around 32,384.However, RSI is showing divergence i.e., the past couple of days bullish market is not supported by the Strength Indicator. An indication of a sustainable push higher would be if RSI breaks above its falling trendline.If Bitcoin is being rejected and slides back support at around 21,475 could be tested. Source: Tradingview and Coinbase Ethereum ETHUSD seems range bound between 1,460 and 1,700. RSI is showing divergence but has broken above the falling trendline which could be an indication ETH is set to move higher but the crypto seems to be struggling to leave the range.If ETH succeeds next resistance at around 1,790 and around 2K close to the 1.618 projection of the November sell-off.A break below 1,460 down trend would resume with support at 1,318. Read next: RBNZ Preview: 50bp hike, but the peak is close| FXMAG.COM   Source: Tradingview and Coinbase RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend Source: Technical Update - Bitcoin and Ethereum testing key resistance. Could be range bound for a while | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
European Markets Face Headwinds Amid Rising Yields and Inflation Concerns

Let's have a look at 25 worst stocks of S&P 500 and Wall Street as a whole in 2022

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 29.12.2022 23:37
Summary:  The only free lunch being served on Wall Street (The Stock Market) is around Christmas time. It is the worst performing stocks that are being dumped by Fund Managers and Investors in December. Here a list of the 25 worst preforming stocks in 2022. Maybe there is a bargain buy for a sweet little bounce in to 2023 According to Stock Trader’s Almanac the only free lunch being served on Wall Street (The Stock Market) is around Christmas time. When a year draws to an end most Fund Managers and Investors will get rid of under-performing stocks usually for tax-purposes. Cleaning House so to speak. That means that they will dump them before they go on Christmas Holiday so they do not appear on the books by year-end. Statistics made by Stock Trader’s Almanac show that stocks selling at their 52 weeks low around mid-December tend to outperform the market by mid-February the following year.According to Stock Trader’s Almanac the average gain of these stocks have been approx. 13% from mid-December to mid-February. Below is a list of the 25 worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2022 and a list of the 25 worst performing stocks of the entire US Stock Market Due to license reasons these stocks are not derived from Stock Trader’s Almanac list of stocks they issue every year to Subscribers. However, there is a great likelihood most of the 2x25 stocks listed below are on their list.Please note: There might have been a good reason fundamentally for these stocks to have underperformed. An under-performance they might carry in to the new year.It should be noted that there is no guarantee these Stocks will outperform the market the next couple of weeks and until mid-February. Bottom Fishing and Bargain Hunting are dangerous sports. Keep your stops close and be disciplined. Best and worst performing Stocks 2022     Source: Statmuse.com Source: Statmuse.com On SaxoTrader you can also find the worst performing Sector and Industry ETF’sBelow image is from my watchlist of ETF’s. Disregard the Leveraged EFT’s (e.g., Bull 3X ETF, Ultra ETF’s and so on)It should be noted there is no guarantee of these ETF’s will outperform the market the next couple of weeks. Source: Technical Update - US Stock Market's yearly free lunch is being served around Christmas | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The China’s Covid Containment Continued To Negatively Impact The Output At The End Of 2022

US Dollar to CNH - Kim Crammer Larsson takes a technical look

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 25.10.2022 22:26
USDCNH spiked higher after the weekend touching the 1.382 projection of the recent correction at around 7.365.Despite showing divergence on RSI there could be more upside for the pair. RSI is at the time of writing above its falling trendline and if it closes above there is strong indication of higher levels on both USDCNH and RSI which would mean RSI could trade out its divergence. For RSI to trade out its divergence it must take out the high 27th September – horizontal dashed line. Source: Saxo Group On medium-term longer-term there seems to be more upside. After USDCNH broke above previous highs around 7.20 it is headed towards the 1.382 projection of the 2020-2022 correction at around 7.54. Since we are in un-charted territory there are no strong resistance levels.On both weekly and monthly time period RSI is at extreme levels but there is currently no divergence supporting the view of higher levels on USDCNH.The very steep uptrend on weekly has touched the upper trend line in the channel pattern indicating USDCNH is ripe for a correction that could test the lower rising trendline.However, the upper rising trendline is just shifted parallel from the lower and is not a strong resistance, merely just a guideline.Support at around 7.00 and if that levels is taken out could become a trend change but until then trend is up on all-time periods.An indication for a short-term correction would be if RSI on daily chart breaks below its lower rising trendline. Source: Saxo Group   Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - USDCNH in uncharted territory. Uptrend is stretched but no resistance ahead | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Gazprom Threathening To Cut Gas Transits Via Ukraine

Kim Crammer Larsson (Saxo Bank) Comments On Dutch Gas, Henry Hub Gas And Carbon Emission

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 18.10.2022 23:25
Dutch TTF GAs is breaking below key support at €125 in a total collapse. Henry Hub Gas eyeing Shoulder-Head-Shoulder target at $5.32.  Sideways trading Carbon Emission could break deadlock and drop further Dutch Gas is collapsing. After closing below €145 the big test was 125. Gas has now broken below that minor support right at the open this morning supporting the view that Dutch Gas prices are collapsing.  There is no strong support in Dutch Gas before around 83.75 -77.30.RSI is below 40 adding to the bearish picture.Dutch could bounce and perform a minor correction from the falling lower trendline in what looks like a steep falling wedge pattern.To reverse this bearish picture Dutch Gas needs to close above 175. Source: All Charts and data in this article Saxo Group Henry Hub Gas closed yesterday below key support at $6.30 and could be in free fall to July lows around 5.32. Henry Hub would then have reached its Shoulder-Head-Shoulder target illustrated by the two vertical arrows. To reverse this continued bearish picture Henry Hub Gas must close above 7.20.   Carbon Emission has been stepping sideways for several weeks by now. However, that might soon change. Emission prices are likely to resume down trend if it breaks below 65 followed by RSI closing back below 40. RSI is showing bearish sentiment and currently testing its lower corrective rising trendline.For Carbon Emission to reverse the downtrend a close above 71.36 is needed. Source: Technical Update - Natural Gas prices collapsing breaking key supports. Carbon Emission warming up for another sell-off | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Crude Oil Price:  A Crucial Event Takes Place In The Week Ahead

Brent Crude Oil, WTI, Dutch TTF Gas And Henry Hub Situation. Shortly Gains And Long-Time Situation

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 30.08.2022 14:04
Brent Crude oil has broken above its short-term falling trendline and seems to start reversing the down trend trading around the 0.382 retracement level at USD104.38. Next key resistance is 110.67-112.32, the latter is the 0.618 retracement of the June-August Bearish move. A close above those levels 120-125 is in the cards.If Brent oil drops back below the falling trend line the uptrend is likely to be reversed. If closing below 98.14 it is reversed and 90 is likely to be tested. RSI is still below 60 and needs to close above to underline the uptrend. Source: Saxo Group On the weekly chart we can see that Brent Oil retraced 0.382 of the bullish trend since 2020. RSI is testing its falling trend line and a close above is an indication of Brent resuming its medium- to long-term uptrend Source: Saxo Group WTI Lights Sweet Crude oil that broke out of its falling trendline last week is now in a confirmed uptrend (higher highs and higher lows). However, RSI has not yet confirmed the trend by closing above 60. Resistance at around USD100.23. If buyers can lift WTI above that level the big test is can it move above 55 and 100 SMA’s. If that scenario plays out a move to 0.618 retracement at around 109.18 is likely.If WTI closes below 91.13 the downtrend is likely to resume Source: Saxo Group WTI only retraced around 0.236 of the 2020 extreme low (where WTI oil went to minus 40.32) till (so far) 2022 peak. RSI is still above i.e. in positive sentiment and could test its falling trend line with in a week or so.If WTI loses steam and closes below 85.41 a bearish move to 75.27 and even 65.25 could be seen. Source: Saxo Group Dutch TTF gas has peaked out a few Euros below previous peak at EUR345 – at least short-term - and has since retraced. A correction down to around 240 which is the 0.382 retracement level and a test of the short-term rising trendline is likely. However, a correction down to test the medium-term (black) rising trendline is not unlikely before uptrend quite possibly resumes.RSI is at the time of writing below its rising lower trend line but there is no divergence indicating we could see higher price levels in coming weeks. Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub Gas is having trouble closing above USD10 and could be set for a correction. If breaking the steep rising trendline and drops below 8.87 a correction down to 8.23 is likely but could spike down to around 7.68-7.55 key support.RSI is at the time of writing breaking below its rising trendline and if closing below it support the correction picture. However, there is no divergence on RSI indicating higher levels after a possible correction. Source: Saxo Group   Source: Technical Update - Oil breaking falling trendline, building uptrend. Gas rejected at previous peaks but higher prices are in the cards
Forex: Euro On Holidays. Do Not Count Your Chickens Before They Are Hatched!

Forex: Euro On Vacations. Do Not Count Your Chickens Before They Are Hatched!

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 30.08.2022 08:53
US 2-years Treasury yields is testing June peak at 3.45 forming what looks like an Ascending triangle like pattern. If yields close above 3.45 first target is 3.73 but a move to around 3.90-4.00% is likely.If rejected at the 3.45 we could see US 2-year yields test the lower rising trendline.However, RSI is above 60 with no divergence indicating higher levels are the most likely scenario Source: Bloomberg. US 10-years Treasury yields is struggling to break the 3.11 resistance just peaking above to be rejected at the 0.618 retracement at 3.13. Now being rejected twice the past week it is having another go today. If closing above 3.13 there is some resistance at 3.27 but June peak at 3.50 is likely to be tested.However, the US 10-years is moving in what looks like a rising wedge meaning if it is once again rejected and closes below 3%, a correction down to around the 0.618 retracement at 2.76 is likely. However, RSI is above 60 and no divergence indication yields will break higher Source: Saxo Group The US 10-years Treasury future has broken below 0.618 retracement and support at 117 5/32. If it closes below, it has further confirmed the downtrend and is on course to test June lows at around 114 7/32. Some support at around 116   Source: Saxo Group Euro Bunds gapped lower this morning below key support at 149.75 testing 0.618 retracement at 147.94. RSI is below 40 and no divergence indicating lower levels. We could see buyers trying to close the gap but the former support at 149.75 is now a strong resistance.Some support at around 145.16 Source: Saxo Group   Source: Technical Update - US 2 and 10-years Treasury yields testing key resistance levels. Euro Bund future hit by heavy selling  
Saxo Bank Podcast: US Equities Continue To Trade Up, Natural Gas In Europe, Bank of Japan Meeting Ahead And More

Natural Gas Is More Valuable Than Crude Oil!? Carbon Emission Is Almost The Highest In History!!!

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 17.08.2022 16:02
Dutch TTF Gas is resuming uptrend taking out July peak testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around €242.75.RSI has broken its falling trend and is likely to trade out/cancel the divergence since mid-July. If Dutch gas closes above the 0.618 retracement the 0.764 retracement at around 281.82 is next level likely to be reached. The upper rising trend line is likely to be reached and possibly broken in a gas price that seems to accelerate.To reverse the uptrend a close below 187.50 is needed.However, a correction over the next couple of days is not unlikely given the Spinning Top Candle formed yesterday. IT is often a top and reversal indicator but needs to be confirmed by a bearish candle the following day. IF Dutch Gas closes above its peak the potential top and reversal is demolished. Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub Gas has taken out resistance at the 0.618 retracement at around $8.90 and now also 0.764 retracement indicating previous highs at $9.66-9.75 are likely to be tested. If Henry Hub Gas closes above previous highs new price targets Source: Saxo Group Brent Crude oil continue its downtrend closing in on support at around $90. RSI is testing previous lows. There is divergence indicating a weakening of the downtrend but if RSI makes a new low the $90 support could be broken. Next support would be at around the 0.764 retracement at 85.76To set the downtrend on pause a close above 100.38. That will most likely not reverse the trend but merely just put it on pause. Source: Saxo Group WTI Crude oil was rejected at the short-term falling trendline and is now back below the 0.618 retracement. Next support at 81.90. There is divergence on RSI indication the downtrend is weakening. However, if RSI closes below If WTI closes back above the 200 SMA i.e. above $95 thereby also breaking above the short-term falling trendline, a larger correction to around 105-110 is likely. Source: Saxo Group Carbon Emissions broke its falling trendline last week and has now also broken above resistance at 92.75 closing in on its all-time high just below €100. RSI is entering over-bought territory but there is no divergence indicating higher levels (above 100) is likely. However, do expect a correction from just below previous highs.            Source: Saxo Group   Source: Technical Update - Natural Gas powers higher. Oil downtrend weakening, close to and end? Carbon Emission close to all-time highs
FX Market Update: Calm Before the Central Bank Storm

AUDUSD Is Sliding Down. AUDJPY Aims High!? GBPAUD Finally Have A Chance!

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 12.08.2022 08:47
AUDUSD AUDUSD confirmed short-term uptrend yesterday breaking above 0.7069. RSI back above 60 indicating AUDUSD is likely to move higher towards resistance at 0.7283. AUDUSD could move higher from there after a likely correction. If closing above 0.76 AUDUSD could move toward peak at around 0.7660.To neutralise that scenario AUDUSD must move back below 0.7069. To reverse it AUDUSD must collapse to below 0.6865. Source: Saxo Group Weekly chart shows AUDUSD trading in a wide falling channel. A test of upper falling trendline is not unlikely, given that the above bullish scenario plays out. Source: Saxo Group AUDJPY AUDJPY is slowly crawling higher after the spike down below key support last week. AUDJPY is back above all Simple Moving averages and RSI is still showing positive sentiment indicating a test of the slightly falling upper trendline is likely. If AUDJPY breaks above the trendline and above resistance at 95.75 the pairs is likely to take out the peak in June at around 96.90. Source: Saxo Group GBPAUD GBPAUD is testing support at 1.7173 and seems likely to break bearish out of the range it has been trading in past 6 months. If AUDGBP closes below 1.7173 the pair is set for lower levels Source: Saxo Group Weekly chart shows that 01.7173 is a key support level rejecting GBPAUD several times. If GBPAUD finally breaks below the support a medium- to long-term move towards 1.60 area is in the cards.IF it fails to close below 1.7173 GBPAUD could resume its rangebound behaviour Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - AUD pairs on the move testing or breaking resistance levels. AUDUSD , AUDJPY & GBPAUD
Coffee Is On The Ropes? Dissapointing Prediction

Coffee Is On The Ropes? Dissapointing Prediction

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 11.08.2022 08:42
Coffee is in a medium-term (corrective?) downtrend in a wide falling channel. Bounced from the 0.382 retracement at around 196 Coffee could be headed for at test of the upper falling trendline. First indication could be RSI breaking above its upper falling trendline and coffee to close above its 55 weekly SMA. Source: Saxo Group The short-term the bounce could have potential to reverse the medium-term downtrend. Daily RSI needs to close above 60 to confirm and indicate further upside. An upside that needs to take out the upper falling trendline. If rejected the medium-term down is likely to resume   Source: Saxo Group   Maybe the Robusta Coffee is an indication of what is coming in Coffee. Robusta coffee has rebounded from its 0.382 retracement of the entire 2020-2021 uptrend and has broken bullish out of its falling wedge like pattern which could be the Forth corrective vawe.If Robusta closes above 2.16 it has confirmed reversal of the downtrend and is likely to trade higher towards previous peak around 2.45. Strong resistance at around 2.30.RSI has broken above its falling trendline supporting the rebound picture. A close above 60 will further confirm an uptrend. Source: Saxo Group Short-term Robust is fast approaching 200 daily SMA. RSI above 60 and no divergence which indicates higher levels are likely. Resistance at around 2.185 and the 200 daily SMA. A minor correction should be expected around that level before uptrend is likely to resume.   Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Robusta Coffee reversing corrective downtrend. Will Coffee follow same pattern?  
The Commodities Feed: First US crude draw this year

Kim Crammer Larsson Takes A Technical Look At Commodities - Brent Crude Oil And More - 26/07/22

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 26.07.2022 14:50
Brent Crude oil is struggling to get upside momentum following the bottom and reversal Hammer candle 2 weeks ago. However, if Brent can close above $107.70 it has confirmed a short-term uptrend. Next obstacles are the rising (black) trendline and the 0.618 retracement at 113.52. To reverse the rebound picture still under development a close below 96.75 id needed. Source: Saxo Group WTI crude oil is struggling more than Brent having tested the key support at around $92.93 twice. A close above 105.24 is needed for confirmation of a short-term uptrend. However, 55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down likely putting a damper on a potential rise. We could see a period of sideways range trading in oil. Source: Saxo Group Gasoline is at the time of writing trading above its short-term falling trend line after bouncing from support at around $300. RSI showing divergence indicating a reversal. If Gasoline closes above 350 it is likely to establish an uptrend that can take it to the 0.618 retracement at 382.If Gasoline closes below 298 the rebound scenario is reversed Source: Saxo Group Sellers in Dutch TTF gas tried last week to push the price below key support at €152 only for buyers to take immediate control resulting in Dutch gas to close above the support. 152 support is too strong.Dutch gas is set for higher prices and is likely to reach 229 possibly 242 within 1-2 weeks. If gas prices break above its upper rising trendline prices could accelerate. Key resistance seems to be around $205-214.50. Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub gas is going ballistic breaking all potential Fibonacci retracement levels. Henry Hub is on course to test June highs around $9.66 where from a correction is not unlikely. However, there are no signs of divergence on RSI indicating new highs are likely. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Crude oil struggling for momentum. Gasoline breaking falling trendline. Natural gas powering higher | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The RBA Surprised With A Smaller 25 bp Hike , Sterling (GBP) Rose, The USD Has Weakened

AUDUSD, EUR/AUD And AUD/JPY - Kim Crammer Larsson (Saxo Bank) Is Having A Technical Look

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 25.07.2022 12:18
After AUDUSD broke bullish out of its falling wedge formation it has been rejected at around 0.680 which is both the 0.764 retracement of the peak to trough of the wedge, 0.50 retracement of the down trend since June peak AND the 55 SMA. If Monday ends down it could signal a reversal of the bullish break out/rebound. If Monday ends on the positive note the resistance at around 0.680 could be taken out. If that scenario plays out AUDUSD is likely to extend its rebound to key resistance at around 0.7069. Source: Saxo Group AUDJPY got rejected at the 0.764 retracement of the falling wedge breakout at around 95.60, currently trading at the 0.382 retracement of the uptrend after wedge break out. A correction down to the 0.618 retracement at 93.07 before uptrend resumes is not unlikely.IF AUDJPY breaks above 95.76 June highs at 96.88 is likely to be tested and taken out. Source: Saxo Group EURAUD closed Thursday below support at 1.4765. Last week ended with a lot of volatility and could trade most of the last week of July in a fairly wide range between 1.46 and 1.49. A close below 1.46 and selling pressure in EURAUD is likely to be intensified and push the pair down to around 1.4320.RSI is below 40 supporting the bearish view. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Bullish break out in AUDUSD and AUDJPY hit by resistance. EURAUD continue downtrend. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Gold Price (XAUUSD) And Silver Price (XAGUSD) - Technical Update - 22/07/22

Gold Price (XAUUSD) And Silver Price (XAGUSD) - Technical Update - 22/07/22

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 22.07.2022 11:49
Gold spot XAUUSD touched key support at 1,80 yesterday and formed a Bullish Engulfing candle. A Bullish Engulfing candle is when the price opened lower than previous day’s close and closed higher than previous day’s open. A Bullish engulfing candle shows that Buyers taking control from Sellers and an indication of a bottom and reversal i.e. XAUUSD is set for a rebound. A rebound that could take Gold to around 1,780 and the falling trend line.For XAUUSD to continue the down trend a close below 1,680 is needed. Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Group Silver spot XAGUSD is finding support at 0.618 retracement and the key support at around 18.35. See weekly chart. On daily chart three times have XAGUSD tested the support level and could be ready for a correction. If XAGUSD breaks above 18.45 it could bounce to the 0.382 retracement at 21.22. If XAGUSD takes out the support at 18.35 with a daily close XAGUSD Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Group The Gold/Silver XAUXAG ratio is still in an uptrend weekly chart the price is hugging the upper trend line in a rising channel. (weekly chart)A correction should be seen but XAUXAG must break below 89.55 for that scenario to unfold. XAUXAG is trading in a rising channel (or is it a wide rising wedge – not yet confirmed) and could test the lower rising trendline. That will be tested if XAUXAG breaks below 89.55.If XAUXAG breaks below the trendline minor support at the 0.618 retracement at 86.90 but XAUXAG could drop to 85.00 or even to 82.25.If instead XAUXAG moves higher above 92.20 we could see a new higher above 93.67. Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Gold and Silver indicates it is correction time. Gold/Silver ratio could follow | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Technical Look - Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline And More!

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 15.07.2022 16:25
Summary:  Oil futures forming bottom and reversal patterns indicating a rebound. Gasoline selling pressure weakening. Henry Hub rebound facing strong resistance. Correction in Dutch Gas could under way before uptrend resumes. Carbon Emission rangebound in tighter and tighter range. Break out could be imminent Yesterday Brent Crude oil spiked below Key support at $96.75 and the 0.618 retracement of the December to March bull market, ending the day forming a Hammer candle (open and close price at almost same price and a long shadow/wick at the bottom). IT signals a reversal in the market and if today ends on a higher note i.e. forming a bullish candle we could see a strong bounce in Brent over the next few days, possibly weeks.Divergence on RSI supports this picture. If RSI closes above its falling trendline it just adds to the rebound scenario. A rebound that could take Brent back to test the rising (black) trendline and the 0.618 retracement around $113.48If Brent closes below yesterday’s low at $94.53 it will demolish this rebound scenario and Brent is likely to drop to the 0.764 retracement at around 85.76. Minor support at 90.12 Source: Saxo Group WTI Crude oil spiked below key support at 92.93 rebounding from the 0.618 retracement at 90.71 forming a Hammer candle similar to the one on Brent oil. It was the second day with Sellers and Buyers fighting about the power and it seems like the buyers are to regain power after a couple of weeks with selling pressure.A bullish day today and especially if WTI closes above 98.20 there is strong indication of buyers are back in control. A control that can take WTI to test the rising (black) Trendline between 107 and 111.If sellers manage to push WTI to close below 90.61 bear trend will most likely resume and take WTI down to around 81.31 Source: Saxo Group Gasoline downtrend seems to be near exhaustion. There is divergence on RSI supporting the view of downtrend weakening. However, currently no bottom and reversal pattern meaning still risk of a test of key support at 298.67. However, if RSI closes above its falling trendline AND above 40 threshold it is a strong indication of a trend reversal. Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub Gas has rebounded strongly but met overhead resistance at $6.84. A close above is needed for further upside and confirmation of uptrend. If Henry Hub closes below $6 the Natural Gas contract is likely to re-test of support and lows at $5.32. Source: Saxo Group Dutch TTF Gas is testing its lower rising trend line. A close below challenges the uptrend. If Dutch gas closes below €152 the trend has ended and likely to reverse.However, no divergence on RSI indicates higher prices are likely. Source: Saxo Group Carbon Emission is trading in a Symmetrical Triangle like pattern. Break out is needed for direction and could be imminent. If breaking out to the downside a move to the lowest level at €77.38 in the triangle is likely but could drop to support at 75. Bullish breakout and Carbon Emission prices should test the peak of the triangle at 92.75 but is likely to move higher. However, the theory and history of Triangles tells us that after a breakout, prices can move the same distance of the peak to trough of the triangle i.e. €15.37, illustrated by the vertical arrow. That price difference should be added or subtracted to the breakout price. Since we do not know the price at breakout just yet we cannot determine the potential price targets. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Oil indicating bottom and reversal. Gasoline selling weakening. Natural gas on the rise. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The EUR/AUD Pair May Have The Potential To Continue Its Decline

Technical Look At Euro FX Pairs: EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF And More

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 13.07.2022 15:00
EURAUD is likely to test support at 1.4765 shortly. A likely move below will make EURAUD to test key support at 1.46. A move above 1.4980 will put the down trend on pause but likely not reverse it. Source: Saxo Group EURCAD has reached support at around 1.3025. Expect a rebound from here. Possibly up to the 0.236 retracement at 1.3728. Monthly chart. Source: Saxo Group EURCHF still trading in a steep falling trend. No support until around 0.9694. However, as can be seen on the weekly chart EURCHF seems to be unwinding a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern with potential target around 0.90. To demolish that picture EURCHF needs to move above 1.0515. Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Group Last week EURGBP broke bearish out of its wide rising channel, pausing at 100 and 200 SMAs.  A daily close below 200 daily SMA will be a strong indication of EURGBP to drop further. If that scenario plays out next support at around 0.8375, which would then be likely to be taken out. Source: Saxo Group Weekly chart shows how EURGBP was rejected at 0.8720 and has resumed bear trend. RSI was rejected at 60 i.e. in negative sentiment. If EURGBP drops below support the pair is likely to find itself trading around its April lows possibly March lows between 0.8250 and 0.8200. Source: Saxo Group EURJPY has broken its rising trend line and below support at around 137.83 thereby confirming the Double Top pattern. EURJPY is set for further sell off down to around 133. If EURJPY trades above 139.20 the down trend will be put on hold and we could see EURJPY testing the rising trend line for beneath. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - EUR taking a beating from its pairs. EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP & EURJPY | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
MSFT Stock Price Analysis: Bearish Signals Point to Potential Decline

This FX Pair Has Gone Above Resistance! Technical Look - US Dollar To Japanese Yen | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 12.07.2022 10:23
Summary:  USDJPY has broken resistance level. No strong resistance until 147. But can it move that high? Read this analysis where I dig deep into the bigger technical picture USDJPY is breaking higher in what looks like a steep rising wedge formation. In June closed USDJPY above its strong resistance at around 135.18 but daily RS indicated we could see a correction before moving higher.But with the move higher today that correction seems to be very small. USDJPY is likely to test the upper rising trend line in the wedge like pattern.RSI will then most likely test its falling trendline. If closing above USDJPY will likely move higher.If USDJPY breaks bearish out of the wedge we can expect a correction down to around 131.50 as a minimum Source: Saxo Group 135.18 was the peak in January 2002, it is 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the Symmetrical Triangle ABCDE corrective pattern, and if we take the peak to bottom of the Triangle and add that difference to the break-out price (illustrated by the two vertical arrows) we get roughly 13520. RSI (Relative Strength Index) has also reached and actually surpassed the level as it did at last peak before USDJPY started forming the corrective Triangle pattern. Going back 30 years every time, the RSI has reached values around 80 a larger correction has set in. At the time of writing, it is +85.However, the two other times where RSI was around 80 value the correction did not occur before divergence had been recorded. There is currently no divergence on RSI during this uptrend i.e., we could see higher levels. From the Monthly chart we can see that there is no strong resistance until around 147.65.  1.618 projection of the triangle is at around 142.57.If this is the last exhaustive leg higher – a possible vawe 5 – is has already surpassed 0.764 (at 136.05) of vawe 3. If it will be the same length as vawe 3 is should reach 147.65. Usually vawe 3 is the longest but we do see vawe 5 sometimes is equal to or longer than vawe 3. Bottom line: USDJPY could reach 142-147 in an exhaustive move. RSI has not yet shown divergence which supports the much higher price level in USDJPY. But do expect volatility. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - USDJPY deep dive and bigger picture. It could reach 142-147 in price exhaustion | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
RBI's Strategic INR Support: Factors Behind India's Stable Currency Amidst Global Challenges

Technical outlook: Price bubble implosion in equities

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 07.07.2022 18:32
Summary:  The Nasdaq-100 Index has a clear bubble pattern. According to the theory of bubbles, there is at least one large correction known as a bear trap - sometimes even two - during a long uptrend. Price bubble implosion in equities The Nasdaq-100 Index has a clear bubble pattern. The following figure shows an example of a bubble—the dotcom tech bubble back in the 1990s.  According to the theory of bubbles, there is at least one large correction known as a bear trap—sometimes even two—during a long uptrend. When a bubble implodes the price will always come back to at least the peak of the last larger correction, but quite often also to the bottom of it. Sometimes, it goes all the way to the base of the market before prices really take off.   Since the subprime crisis bottom in 2008, the Nasdaq-100 has risen fifteen-fold. There have been a couple of larger corrections, most notably in 2018 amidst the US trade war and Fed interest rate hike fears and when Big Tech was under Congress scrutiny, and during the Covid pandemic in 2020.    If this time around is no different from other bubbles—it never is—the Nasdaq should drop down to at least around 9,736. We are currently only 12 percent from that level.    Between the two previously mentioned large corrections, the 2018 one was bigger.  The peak of that correction is around 7,673, tucked in between the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement of the whole uptrend since the subprime crisis trough and the 0.618 retracement of the ‘Corona bottom’ and all-time high. However, sometimes we see prices drop below the last correction low.  The implosion of a bubble is usually at least twice as fast as the build (prospect theory, where the pain of losing is 2 to 2.5 times as hard as making a gain). This equates to a bottom in equities in 2023 and 2024.  If you think that a drop in Nasdaq below 9,000—maybe even down to 8,500 or 7,500—is a lot, bear in mind that after the dotcom bubble peak and subsequent implosion, the Nasdaq dropped 77 percent from 2000 to 2002. Below its pre-peak/bear trap correction, the RSI is testing at 40 threshold. If it performs a monthly close below 40, the sentiment is bearish. This is a scenario not seen since the subprime crisis.      2022: the year of the US dollar  The Dollar Index is attempting again to break bullish out of the very wide range between 88 and 103 it has been trading in since 2015. If the breakout is successful, we could see a move to around 110 in Q3, where we see a cluster of Fibonacci projection and retracement levels. The RSI is showing bullish sentiment with no divergence, and Bollinger Bands are expanding, supporting the view of higher price levels in the Dollar Index. US 10-year Treasury yields breaking multi-decade long downtrend—4 percent in sight  An uptrend in US 10-year Treasury yields was confirmed when it broke above 1.71 percent in January 2022, making a new higher high. This was then followed by a break of the multi-decade long falling trend line in March. Yields have now also taken the 2018 peak at 3.25 percent.  With just minor psychological resistance around 4 percent, US 10-year Treasury yields could very well reach the 1.382 Fibonacci projection at around 4.38 percent in Q3.  However, there is no strong resistance until around 5.25 percent, which is around the pre-subprime peak between the 1.618 and the 1.764 Fibonacci projection levels from the 2018–2020 downtrend.   Brent crude oil uptrend running out of steam  After two attempts in May and June, Brent crude oil seems to have trouble returning to above $126 to test the March peak.  On weekly, the RSI is still bullish, but with divergence indicating we have seen a medium-term top. A break above 125.25 could push Brent to test the March peak in a final exhaustive move. However, Brent oil could be range bound between $97 and $125 for the next couple of months. If Brent breaks below $96.90, support at $86.75 and the rising trend are likely to be tested. Explore products at Saxo Source: Price bubble implosion in equities – Outlook Q3 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Wheat, Soybeans And Corn - What's Going On Soft Commodities Market? | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 06.07.2022 15:43
Summary:  Wheat, Soybeans and Corn have been hit with massive selling the past week. All back to pre-Ukraine war levels. Oversold indicator suggest we could see a nice rebound. But selling pressure can quickly resume Wheat is back to pre-Ukraine war level. All support levels have been taken out and Wheat is now hovering around 820 which was top of the range area it was trading a couple of months prior to the war. Wheat can still drop further as there is no support before around 740. However, Wheat is oversold and RSI has not seen values this low since 2019. RSI has formed a falling wedge like pattern and if it breaks bullish out of this we could see a strong rebound to around 900-926. Source: Saxo Group Soybeans collapsed after the key support at 1,579 was broke last week. The price has almost moved the same length as the range Soybeans was trading March to June. Illustrated by the two arrows.It seems to bounce from the upper support in the consolidation area 1,429-1,349. A bounce that could take Soybeans up to 200 Simple Moving Average around 1,485, possibly up to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at around 1,522RSI is bearish and despite being oversold Soybeans can drop further. If it takes out yesterdays low we could see Soybeans below 1,400. Source: Saxo Group Corn has collapsed down to the January lows around 585. RSI showing massive oversold and a rebound is likely. A rebound that could take Corn to around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and around the 200 SMA. However, if Corn is being pushed below 580 we could see it drop to around 550. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - After massive sell offs in Grains it could be rebound time | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The Forex Market Is Under Strong Pressure From Geopolitical Events And Statistics

Energy: Gasoline Price And Dutch TTF May Surprise You! How Have WTI & Brent Crude Oil Prices Changed?

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 01.07.2022 13:21
Brent Crude oil is once again testing rising trend line. A close below and more importantly a close below 107 is likely to fuel a sell off down to 101.30 possibly all the way down to key support at 96.75To reverse this possible bearish scenario a close above 120.41 is needed Source: Saxo Group WTI has closed below rising trend line. Next key level is 101.53. A close below will confirm short term down trend that can take WTI  down to 92.93. Some support at 98.20.To reverse this possible scenario a close above 114 is needed Source: Saxo Group Gasoline has confirmed down trend currently test key support at around 350. A close below is likely to push Gasoline to minor support at 330 but 300 is not unlikely. If Gasoline jumps back above the rising trend line it will merely just be in neutral state. To reverse the down trend a close above 395.60 Source: Saxo Group Dutch TTF gas is in confirmed uptrend likely to move higher. To reverse the uptrend Dutch gas needs to close below 125 Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub gas has experienced a total collapse from peak . Bouncing around 200 SMA downtrend is still intact and no divergence on RSI indicates we are to lower levels . However, expect a few days with sideways trading maybe even a minor bounce before selling pressure is likely to return. For the down trend to be reversed at close above 6.84 is needed. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Henry Hub gas and Gasoline prices collapse. Dutch gas on the rise. Head wind for oil | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Global Steel Production Declines, Copper Market in Surplus, Nickel Inventories Increase

Technical Update - Energy. Oil, Gasoline and Henry Hub gas bouncing off supports. Dutch gas treading water

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 28.06.2022 13:22
Summary:  Brent and WTI oil are bouncing from rising trend lines. Correction could be over. Henry Hub have been hit by massive selling but seems to have found a floor. Dutch Gas trading sideways around Pivot levels.Emission ready to break out of range After a minor correction Brent Crude oil is bouncing of the short-term rising trend line and looks set to resume uptrend. The RSI has bounced of the 40 threshold i.e. still bullish sentiment despite divergence early this month. Resistance at 118.30 and key resistance at 121.25. If breaking above 121.25 June highs are likely to be taken out. This likely bullish scenario is to be reversed if Brent Oil breaks below $107 Source: Saxo Group WTI Crude oil dipped below its short-term rising trendline, formed a Doji Morning bottom and reversal pattern indicating higher levels in WTI. Resistance at $115.22. If WTI drops below 101 selling pressure is likely to take WTI down to key support at around $92.93 Source: Saxo Group Gasoline seems to have found a support at 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at 365 bouncing off the level twice last week and not even testing the rising trend line. Correction in Gasoline could be over. That scenario will be confirmed if Gasoline moves back above the upper trend line I broke below last week. Key resistance at 406.50.RSI still showing divergence but if RSI closes above 60 and the falling trend line previous highs could be tested. If Gasoline closes below 364 the trend line is likely to be broken. Next support at 349 but no strong support before 298 Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub gas seems to find support at $6.00, few pence above the 0.618 retracement of the 2022 bull market. Currently trading above key level at 6.41.RSI still showing bearish sentiment indicating lower levels. However, if buyers can keep gas above the 6.41 there could upside to 7.70-7.83. RSI falling trend line can be key for direction. If RSI is rejected bear trend could resume. If it is broken further upside is likely. Source: Saxo Group Dutch TTF gas is hovering around Bull/Bear pivot at €127.50. Trend is up, however. RSI indicates higher levels, but Dutch Gas could be dipping a bit lower in a correction that could take it to test €111. If it does not close below 111, higher levels should be expected. Source: Saxo Group Carbon emission Is still range bound in a tighter and tighter range is trying to break out of symmetrical triangle like pattern. A breakout is needed for direction. If break out is bearish key support is 75.85. If breakout is bullish May highs at 92.75 could be tested. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Energy. Oil, Gasoline and Henry Hub gas bouncing off supports. Dutch gas treading water | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
MSFT Stock Price Analysis: Bearish Signals Point to Potential Decline

Technical Update - Wheat broken key support turning bearish, but indicates higher prices longer term

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 24.06.2022 15:17
Summary:  Wheat price closed below key support confirming bear trend,. But the longer term picture suggests higher prices Wheat closed Thursday below key support at 972 in continued heavy selling further confirming the down trend. RSI on daily is below 40 with no divergence support the view of further downside.A downtrend that has the potential to reach the 0.764 retracement of the buying panic caused the start of the Ukraine war. The daily 200 SMA and the medium-term rising trend line will offer support If Wheat price crawls back above 972 it is back to neutral.   Source: Saxo Group   Weekly more clearly shows the rising trend line with the 55 weekly SMA almost glued to it.RSI is still bullish with no divergence. If Wheat price drops to support 0.764 retracement and rising trend line support around 900-885 RSI might still stay above 40 threshold. A bounce from that support is plausible. Source: Saxo Group Monthly chart shows a bag of mixed signals. The current price level seems to be important to observe. Wheat was rejected at this level back in 2012Paused a bit in February this year before breaking above with a bang but is now flirting with it once again. A Monthly close below could indicate further downside. Expect a tug of war around current price levels. However, RSI still bullish with no divergence indicating higher price levels could be expected longer term.The month of June is not yet over but up until now it has formed a likely Bearish Engulfing candle which is a strong top and reversal indicator.  However, RSI still bullish with no divergence indicating higher price levels could be expected longer term. And if the Wheat closes back above 972 the uptrend could resume. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Wheat broken key support turning bearish, but indicates higher prices longer term | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Corn Prices Recorded Their Biggest Weekly Gain, Gold Demand In India May Suffer A Temporary Setback

Technical Update - Wheat prices in decline testing key support. Corn and Soybeans range bound. Coffee on the rise

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 22.06.2022 15:37
Wheat is in a confirmed down trend closing below 1,034 support yesterday. RSI below 40 and testing key support at 972. A Daily close below is likely to fuel further sell off down to around 900-887. To reverse the bearish picture Wheat must close above 1,109.Read our Commodities specialist, Ole Hansen's report about the background here:  https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/finally-some-good-news-as-food-prices-ease-21062022 Source: Saxo Group Soybeans has been range bound for the better part of 2022. A range that needs to be broken for direction. Source: Saxo Group Corn couldn’t stay above the falling trend line after bullish break out last week. RSI is still showing bearish sentiment indicating Corn to weakening further. 725 is key support that is likely to be tested.If Corn prices again breaks above the upper falling trend line RSI must confirm the uptrend by closing above 60 threshold. If it doesn’t it could be another false bullish break. If that scenario plays out 825 is in the cards. Source: Saxo Group Coffee is technically in a short-term uptrend. RSI positive sentiment. Coffee is likely to test 242. If it closes above February highs at around 260 is likely to be reached.For this bullish scenario to be demolished and reversed a close below 218 is needed. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Wheat prices in decline testing key support. Corn and Soybeans range bound. Coffee on the rise | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Rising U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Have Helped The USD/JPY Bulls

FX: Tempting Japanese Yen! Technical Update - USDJPY testing strong resistance, can it close above? | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 21.06.2022 22:37
USDJPY experienced a ”Flash correction” Thursday before bouncing back strongly and has now broken above resistance at 135.60. There is still divergence on RSI, but trend is up and remember the trend is your friend.To reverse the bullish picture USDJPY needs to break below 131.40. Source: Saxo Group USDJPY is testing its strong resistance around 136. A cluster of resistance/projection levels are placed around this level.It was the peak in January 2002, it is 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the Symmetrical Triangle break out, and if you take the peak to bottom of the Triangle and add that difference to the break-out price (illustrated by the two vertical arrows). If USDJPY can close the day above 136.20 there could very well be more upside potential. However, RSI (Relative Strength Index) has reached and exceeded the value level it did at the peak before USDJPY started forming the corrective Triangle pattern in June 2015.Going back 30 years every time, the RSI has reached values around 80 a larger correction has set in. At the time of writing, Monthly RSI is above 84.However, the two other times where RSI was close to 80 the correction did not occur before divergence had been recorded. There is currently no divergence on RSI during this uptrend i.e., we could see another leg higher after a quite possible minor downward correction.An exhaustive move higher could reach 142-147.  Keep an eye on RSI, if it breaks its steep rising trend line it could be a strong indication of a correction. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - USDJPY testing strong resistance, can it close above? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The EUR/USD Pair Showed Local Speculative Interest In Short Positions Yesterday

Technical Update - S&P 500 & Nasdaq. Rebound time, but for how long?

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 21.06.2022 15:36
Summary:  The past 8 days of selling in US Equities looks to be set on pause for a few days. Minor correction should be expected. But a correction that most likely will not be long lived before selling could hit Equities again S&P 500 ended last week with a neutral day. Short term the sell off could be exhausted and a minor rebound over the next couple of days should be expected. However, the trend is down. No divergence on RSI indicates we are still to see lower levels towards the end of June.A rebound will likely be short lived to resistance at 3,838 where selling pressure is likely to return. If S&P 500 closes above 3,838 it will try to close the gap up to 3,900. If it fails, it is a strong sign of weakness. Source: Saxo Group Down trend in S&P 500 accelerated last week breaking below falling lower trend line. There is no strong support until around 3,500 i.e. top of the consolidation area and 0.50 retracement of the 2020 low to 2022 peak. A dip below the 200 weekly SMA to 3,385 is not unlikely. However, the strongest support is around 3,210 which is both the 0.618 retracementAND the bottom of the correction prior to the confirmation of the start of the bull market Q4 2020.RSI in a falling channel with no divergence supporting the picture of lower levels. Source: Saxo Group Nasdaq 100 is set to open higher today after a long weekend. A correction to around 11,747 is likely before selling pressure most likely resumes. RSI is showing divergence supporting the correction scenario. A correction that could extend to around 0.618 retracement at 12,186 if the Index closes above 11,825. A close below 11,037 down trend will resume Source: Saxo Group Nasdaq spiked lower Friday retracing a few points off the top of support area of 10,960. RSI is showing divergence indicating weakening of the down trend. However, the trend IS still down and no bottom and reversal pattern formed meaning lower levels should be anticipated. The strong Consolidation/support area is key for the longer term picture Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - S&P 500 & Nasdaq. Rebound time, but for how long? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
The EUR/USD Pair Showed Local Speculative Interest In Short Positions Yesterday

Technical Update - Euro 10-year yields reaching levels not seen in almost a decade. But more to come | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 15.06.2022 22:24
Summary:  European yields have been on the rise since the beginning of the year in what is probably the steepest and fastest rise ever seen. The 10-year yields are now reaching levels not seen in almost a decade but there are likely higher levels in coming months and year. Ahead of ECB Emergency meeting today let’s have a look at Euro 10 Years Yields and Future from a technical perspective. The Euro yields have been on rise since the beginning of 2022 and have now broken the long-term falling trend going back to the 1990’s.Since 2008 it has formed a falling Wedge like pattern which is broke bullish out of last year. Yields are now close to reach 0.5 Fibonacci  retracement of the “peak to low” of the Wedge where there is some resistance. Expect minor correction around this level i.e. at around 1.95%.  Yields might try to break 2% but not unlikely to fail breaking above in first attempt. If breaking above 2% next key resistance is at the 0.764 retracement at around 3.35%. A level not seen since the Eurozone crisis in 2010-2011, where several emergency and bail out packages where issued and ECB started buying Government bonds. See timeline here https://www.bbc.com/news/business-13856580However, according to the theory of Wedges the price should reverse to at least the peak of the Wedge (for a falling Wedge) i.e. in this case at it would be at around 4.6%. If that scenario unfolds it would be a yield level not seen since 2008 when the Liquidity/Financial crisis was unfolding. With regards to time line, it is always hard to predict but after the break out of a Wedge the move back to the top range of the Wedge is much faster than the time span of the building of the Wedge. Roughly 20-35% of the Wedge time line i.e. 2-4 years. Break out was a year ago. Source: Bloomberg The Euro Bund future has dropped 7% in June alone. Since The future closed below key support at 167.52 back in February this year it has taken out one support level after the other. It paused briefly at the top range of the strong support area 151.44-149.60 in May but has accelerated sell off from the start of June, now trading below 200 Monthly SMA with no strong support before around 138.40-136.40. 136.40 is 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2021 Bull market. This level is likely to be reached but do expect a rebound from here. However, looking a bit longer-term i.e. end of the year going in to 2023 lower levels are not unlikely. If Bund future closes below 136.40 there is no strong support until around 120. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - Euro 10-year yields reaching levels not seen in almost a decade. But more to come | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
A Softer Labour Market In Australia And Its Possible Consequences

Technical Update- AUDJPY, AUDUSD, AUDEUR, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY & USDCHF

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 14.06.2022 23:50
AUDJPY:  Correction with support at around 90.00 and 90.9. RSI still showing bullish sentiment with no divergence indicating the pair is likely to resume uptrend after a correction. Source: Saxo Group AUDUSD: The cluster of SMA’s were too strong to penetrate – see previous FX Technical Update. AUDUSD has resumed bearish trend and seems to find some support at around 0.6930. However, down trend seems strong and May lows at around 0.6830 is likely to be tested, after a likely minor rebound next couple of days. To reverse this scenario a move above 0.7285 is needed. Source: Saxo Group AUDEUR bullish break out of falling trend has been reversed and the pair is now trading below rising trend line. Support at around 0.6550 could be tested. Source: Saxo Group EURUSD: Got rejected at falling short term trend line a few pips below 1.08. When dropping below key support at 1.0625 bear trend resumed. RSI below 40. A minor rebound to around 1.05 should be expected.May lows are likely to be tested and taken out. Source: Saxo Group EURUSD Bigger view: If taking out 1.0350 EURUSD which is quite likely the pair is set for a move towards 1.00. Source: Saxo Group GBPUSD has broken below May lows. Some minor rebound should be expected next couple of days. Key support is at around 1.21-1.2075. (weekly chart) Source: Saxo Group USDJPY looks short term toppish currently being rejected at the 1.764 projection of the May correction at 135. Divergence on RSI indicates price exhaustion and a set back down to around 130 is not unlikely. To extend the uptrend 135.20 needs to be taken out. Source: Saxo Group USDCHF rejected at 1.00 trying to regain strength for a possible new attempt. However, a set back from here in a corrective move down to around 0.98 is not unlikely before buyers are likely to regain control. If 1.00 is broken a move to around 1.0265 is in the cards. Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update- AUDJPY, AUDUSD, AUDEUR, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY & USDCHF | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Global Steel Production Declines, Copper Market in Surplus, Nickel Inventories Increase

Technical Update - Copper breaking resistance levels. Gold and Silver struggle to move higher | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 03.06.2022 16:43
Copper surged more than 5% Thursday taking out the resistance at $435 and closed above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. RSI closed above 60 threshold i.e. back in positive territory and uptrend confirmed.Expect a few days with minor setback/sideways trading before copper is likely to test falling upper trend line and 0.764 retracement at around 465.For Copper to reverse the bullish outlook a close below 420 is needed. First sign of this not very likely scenario to play out is a close below the lower rising trend line Source: Saxo Group Other metals reacted to the surge in copper.Gold Spot AUXUSD closed almost spot on the 0.382 retracement and is in a neutral position. Break out from 1,875 or 1,825 is needed for direction. If Gold drops back below 1,825 bear trend resumes.With the declining Simple Moving Averages (SMA’s) there are headwind for Gold. RSI still showing negative sentiment. Source: Saxo Group Silver spot XAGUSD jumped too but seems to be rejected at last week’s peak around 22.45. Break below 21.45 bear trend resumes.With the declining SMA’s there are headwind for Gold. RSI still showing negative sentiment. Source: Saxo Group Gold/Silver Ratio XAUXAG seems range bound between 82.90 and 86. Break from that range is needed for direction. RSI showing no divergence indicates break out to be to the upside with likely new highs.However, further downward correction to around 81-81.60 before uptrend resumes is not unlikely. Source: Saxo Group Platinum Spot XPTUSD is in an uptrend testing resistance at around $1,025. A close above confirms that picture.Platinum seems to be unfolding an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern with a potential target 1,080-1,100 Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank
Precious Metals: What Can We Expect From Gold In The Near Future?

Technical Update - AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD & XAGUSD | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 01.06.2022 15:55
AUDUSD is hovering around 0.764 Fibonacci retracement at around 0.717. There is overhead resistance in the form of 55, 100 and 200 SMA’s clustering around 0.7250 and all slightly declining. Strong and key resistance at around 0.7267Source: Saxo GroupEURUSD rebound could run out of steam if RSI fails to close above 60 threshold and fails to break above falling trend line. IF EURUSD takes out 1.0790 we could see a test of 1.0936. A break below 1.0640 bear trend is likely to resume. Source: Saxo Group GBPUSD is hovering around key resistance at 1.2638. A bit of a tug of war between Bulls and Bears. The Bear Engulfing candle Monday indicates a top and reversal. Despite divergence on RSI the indicator is still showing negative sentiment and seems to struggle to move into positive territory above 60.For further upside a break above 1.2670 is needed supported by RSI above 60. However, if that scenario plays out, the falling trend line and 55 SMA provides some overhead resistance. Source: Saxo Group USDJPY has bounced off from the support level at around 126.95. Sellers couldn’t push the pair below for real and uptrend seems to have resumed. Despite showing divergence RSI has broken its falling trend line and if it closes above, it will indicate previous peak around 131.35 is to be tested.For sellers to take control a move below 126.35 is needed. Source: Saxo Group XAUUSD has been rejected at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and bears seems to regain control pushing Gold Spot back below 200 SMA.RSI supports the bearish picture and XAUUSD needs to break above 1,870 to reverse that. May lows around 1,786 is likely to be tested. Source: Saxo Group XAGUSD bounce couldn’t make it till the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement before sellers have taken back control. RSI (at the time of writing) back below 40 with no divergence strongly indicates May lows are to be tested. To reverse that scenario a move above 22.45 is needed. Strong resistance at around 23.28Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank
Key Support Levels in Forex Pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, and EURGBP

Technical Update - Energy. Oil continue its uptrend looking at previous peaks | Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 31.05.2022 23:30
Brent Crude oil is testing 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and resistance at around $123. RSI is back above 60 threshold i.e. bullish sentiment with no divergence indicating March highs at around $139.13 is likely to be tested over the summer. Minor resistance at around 129 Source: Saxo Group WTI Light Sweet Crude oil is at the time of writing trading well above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around $116.38. With higher highs and higher lows and RSI above 60 uptrend is confirmed. No divergence on RSI indicates WQTI oil is likely to test March highs. Source: Saxo Group Gasoline has performed a new highs with no obvious resistance levels. However, 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the March correction indicates first target at around $427.40. However, further upside to the 1.618 projection at around 451 is not unlikely. To reverse the uptrend Gasoline needs to close below $362. Source: Saxo Group Dutch TTF Gas seems to bounce off from the support around €84. However, upside picture is not convincing, Dutch Gas needs to at least break above the falling trend line. When the price moves have been that extreme as we have seen in Dutch Gas it is sometime useful to look at intra day time periods for levels and trends. Source: Saxo Group On the 1 hour chart an uptrend seems to be building with resistance at the 200 SMA and at around €97.94. A break above 200 SMA could be first indication of further upside which will be confirmed if we see a break above resistance at 97.94. Source: Saxo Group Henry Hub Gas seems to have peaked. Twice it has spiked higher but failed to close above $9.Divergence on RSI indicates a reversal i.e. a down wards correction. A daily close below 7.85 will confirm trend reversalHowever, if Henry Hub Gas manages to close above $9 and RSI closes above its falling trendline new highs should be expected.Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank
Risks in the US Banking System: Potential Impacts and Contagion Concerns

Gold Targetting $2.3K!? Watch Metals Closely! Silver Pausing Or Increasing?, Platinum Trades Quite Low, What About Palladium And Copper? - Technical Update Saxo Bank

Kim Cramer Larsson Kim Cramer Larsson 21.04.2022 13:57
Commodities 2022-04-21 08:50 5 minutes to read   Kim Cramer Larsson Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Summary:  Gold and Silver rejected at Fibonacci levels after bullish break out. Platinum in bearish mood but Palladium looks to building upside momentum. Copper range bound Gold XAUUSD was rejected a few cents below the 2,000 mark and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Uptrend is still intact however, RSI showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating Gold is likely to resume uptrend after what is likely to just be a correction. Uptrend will be intact if we do not see a daily close below 1,913. The longer term scenario on Gold expressed in our Quarterly Outlook is still intact . Read it here: https://www.home.saxo/insights Extract: Gold has formed what looks like a cup and handle pattern: B is the bottom of the cup and C is the handle.The cup and handle pattern is confirmed if gold performs a daily close above peak A at $2,078. If this scenario plays out, we can then calculate possible targets. As a minimum gold should reach 1.618 projection of the handle height—in other words, a price target of around $2,328. Based on the full cup the price could potentially reach 1,618 projection of the distance between A and C—around $2,578. If demand deteriorates and gold breaks below $1,673 (the bottom of the handle), this cup and handle scenario is busted and a downtrend will unfold towards $1,500-1,350. Source: Saxo Group Silver XAGUSD rejected at the 0.764 retracement. Further down side to touch the 55 SMA i.e. down to around 24.65 is quite possible before XAGUSD is likely to resume uptrend. RSI still positive sentiment and no divergence support the bullish Silver scenario Source: Saxo Group XAUXAG Gold/Silver ratio keeps trading in months long symmetrical triangle pattern. Wait for breakout Source: Saxo Group Platinum XPTUSD spot struggling to gain upside momentum. RSI indicator is showing negative sentiment and no divergence indicating lows around 950 could be tested. For Platinum to reverse the bear mood a daily close above 1,026 is needed. Check out Trade Signals module on SaxoTrader platforms for short term trade ideas on Metals spot Source: Saxo Group Palladium seems to slowly building upside momentum. Confirmation if Palladium breaks above 2,534. If the scenario plays out RSI is likely to break above 60 threshold thus indicating positive sentiment.Resistance at 2,639 Copper seems to be range bound between 462 and 485. A break out of this range is needed for direction. RSI is still showing bullish sentiment indication break out is likely to be to the upside. Source: Saxo Group

currency calculator