Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.

Euro slides as inflation jumps

Euro slides as inflation jumps

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.07.2022 22:49
The euro is sharply lower on Friday and is currently trading just above the 1.04 line, down 0.76%. Eurozone inflation outperforms Eurozone CPI for June was higher than expected, at 8.6% YoY. The estimate stood at 8.4% and inflation rose sharply from the May reading of 8.1%. This marked a record-high. There was better news from the core reading, which dropped marginally to 3.7% YoY, down from 3.8% in May. Investors have given the inflation data a thumbs-down today and sent the euro tumbling ahead of the weekend. With inflation continuing to accelerate and the ECB revising downwards its growth forecast, the spectre of stagflation in the bloc remains very real. The ECB is no doubt dismayed that inflation was higher than expected, but it’s unclear if the record-high CPI release will be enough to deliver a supersize 0.50% hike for its lift-off next month. At this week’s ECB forum, ECB head Lagarde talked tough and downplayed concerns over a recession, but there are plenty of dark clouds hovering above the eurozone economy. High inflation, weak growth and the energy crisis with Russia mean that there is certainly good reason to be concerned about a significant downturn in the eurozone economy. In the US, there are worrying signs that the economy is weakening. US Personal Spending fell to 0.3%, down from 0.6% (0.4% exp.). Inflation appears to be declining slowly and the labour market is in solid shape. CME’s FedWatch is putting the likelihood of a supersize 0.75% rate increase at 75%, as markets expect the Fed to remain aggressive against inflation. Can a recession be avoided? Fed Chair Powell is saying all the right things in downplaying concerns about the “R” word, but many market participants have their doubts and feel that the US economy will not be able to avoid a recession. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0408. The next support level is at 1.0346 There is resistance at 1.0482 and 1.0544 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro slides as inflation jumps - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Eurozone: Lower Unemployment Rate And Awaited CPI Is Expected To Affect EUR/USD. What Have We Learnt From ECB Meeting Until Now?

Eurozone: Lower Unemployment Rate And Awaited CPI Is Expected To Affect EUR/USD. What Have We Learnt From ECB Meeting Until Now?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.07.2022 10:36
The euro has edged higher on Thursday, after posting losses in two consecutive sessions. The markets were treated to a data dump out of the eurozone, with some mixed numbers. On the employment front, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down from 6.8% (6.7% exp.). Germany reported 133 thousand newly unemployed, a huge increase, but this reading was an anomaly due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market. German retail sales for May bounced back with a modest gain of 0.6%, after a dismal -5.4% slide in April. Eurozone inflation expected to accelerate Investors are keenly awaiting Eurozone CPI for June, which is expected to hit 8.4%, up from 8.1% in May. With no inflation peak in sight and the ECB revising downwards its growth forecast, the spectre of stagflation in the bloc remains very real. At the ECB forum this week, Lagarde sounded hawkish and downplayed concerns about a recession, although there is good reason to be sceptical about her optimism. Inflation continues to hammer away at consumers and businesses. The energy situation with Russia continues to deteriorate and the standoff between Russia and the West is only getting worse, with Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO and the Ukraine war grinding on. In the US, there was some good news for a change on the inflation front. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price index, was unchanged at 0.3% MoM in May, a notch below the estimate of 0.4%. However, earnings dropped sharply to 0.2% in May, compared to 0.9% in April. This could be a sign of the toll the cost of living crisis is taking on US consumers. Federal Reserve Chair Powell has downplayed the likelihood of a recession in the US, but as is the case with ECB President Lagarde, many market participants are less optimistic. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0482. Above, there is resistance at 1.0544 There is support at 1.0408 and 1.0346 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro stems slide but still below 1.05 - MarketPulseMarketPulse
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

ANZ Consumer Confidence Can Influence RBA's Decision And NZD/USD In Consequence

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.07.2022 09:38
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Thursday. Earlier in the day, NZD/USD fell below the 0.62 line before recovering, coming within a whisker of 0.6996, its lowest level since May 2020. NZ Business Confidence sags It was another rough outing for New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, which fell in June to -62.6, down from -55.6 in May. This not only marked a 12th straight decline but also was a near-record low. There’s no sugar-coating the increasing pessimism that businesses are experiencing about the economic outlook. Domestic demand is holding up well, but businesses continue to report being severely hampered by supply-side disruptions and cost pressures. This is consistent with inflation pressures which remain broad-based and intense. The pressure on households has been exacerbated by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand We’ll get a look at ANZ Consumer Confidence on Friday. Last week, Westpac Consumer Confidence fell sharply to 78.7 in Q1, down from 92.1 in Q4 2021 and I don’t expect the ANZ release to be the bearer of good news. Consumers have been hammered by the cost of living crisis, as food and petrol prices have soared. The pressure on households has been exacerbated by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continuing to raise interest rates, with more hikes on the way. The rise in mortgage rates has left households with less disposable income, with many seeing a drop in their assets as home prices have fallen. If the ANZ consumer confidence release confirms that consumer confidence is heading south, this could translate into lower consumer spending, which would be bad news for the New Zealand economy. It could have a significant effect on the Reserve Bank’s policy. If consumer demand sinks, the central bank may have room to ease its rate policy. The RBNZ has been tightening aggressively and the cash rate, which is currently at 2%, is expected to rise to 3% by the end of August and possibly to 4% in 12 months’ time. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6307 and 0.6370 There is support at 0.6250 and 0.6187 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - MarketPulseMarketPulse
FX: USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes GDP. How Is US Dollar Doing?

FX: USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes GDP. How Is US Dollar Doing?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 30.06.2022 12:11
The Canadian dollar is trading quietly today, just above the 1.2900 level. That could change in the North American session, with the release of Canada’s GDP for April. GDP expected to soften Canada’s monthly GDP releases have been pointing southwards. In March, GDP slowed to 0.7, down from 0.9% prior. The April estimate stands at just 0.3%. This is a sign of concern, although there are some bright clouds on the horizon. The war in Ukraine, which has disrupted oil and grain supplies and sent commodity prices soaring, has proved to be a boon for the Canadian economy, as Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of both oil and wheat. The IMF is projecting that Canada will lead the G-7 nations in growth with a GDP of 3.9%. Canada has not been immune from spiralling inflation, as headline CPI rose to 7.7% in May, its highest level since January 1983. Similar to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada has scrambled to tighten policy in order to wrestle down inflation, which has become the central bank’s public enemy number one. There are expectations that the BoC may follow the Fed’s lead and deliver a super-size 0.75% rate hike at its July 12th meeting. Inflationary pressures are broad-based across the economy, which raises the risk of inflation (and inflation expectations) becoming entrenched. The BoC’s aggressive rate-hike cycle has led to the start of a correction in the housing market, but the long-sought-after inflation peak remains elusive. The BoC has the daunting challenge of trying to guide the economy to a soft landing – if interest rates rise more than the economy can handle, the result will be a recession. The BoC, like the Fed, appears to prefer a recession over entrenched inflation, which is why we can expect the BoC’s aggressive rate moves to continue. . USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.2942 and 1.2994 USD/CAD has support at 1.2844 and 1.2792 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canadian dollar eyes GDP - MarketPulseMarketPulse
EUR/USD to retest 1.0470, fundamentals decisive today. 1 EUR To USD - What Can We Expect?

EUR/USD In Focus! ECB Meeting In Sintra Is Like A Blockbuster Starring Lagarde, Powell And Bailey

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.06.2022 13:15
The euro remains under pressure and briefly fell below the symbolic 1.0500 level in the Asian session before recovering. Lagarde says ECB ready to act if needed The ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal this week is a chance for the heads of central banks to hobnob and provide encouragement in these challenging times. ECB President Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey are all in attendance. Inflation has become public enemy number one, and the BoE and the Federal Reserve have responded with an aggressive rate-hike campaign as inflation nears double-digits in the US and UK. Inflation has not spared the eurozone and accelerated to 8.1% in May. It wasn’t that long ago that Lagarde was dismissive of inflation, stating that it was temporary. Lagarde has been forced to change her tune, and the ECB has finally joined the tightening bandwagon, saying earlier this month that it would raise rates in July and again later in the year. Lagarde admitted on Tuesday that the ECB had revised downwards its growth forecasts, but downplayed concerns about a recession. Many market players would disagree, with Russia cutting energy supplies to the bloc and a very real possibility of the US economy tipping into recession. Lagarde’s hawkish comments at the ECB forum didn’t help the euro, which lost ground on Tuesday. Investors will be listening closely as Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Powell address the forum later today. Market jitters over a US recession are rising, which has boosted US equity markets of late, the logic being that the Fed will have to ease up on its hawkish bias. Powell may opt to play it safe on his visit to scenic Sintra, but any hints of dialing back on rate hikes could send the US dollar lower. . EUR/USD Technical 1.0544 is a weak resistance line, followed by resistance at 1.0618 There is support at 1.0482 and 1.0408 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Lagarde talks tough, Powell next at ECB - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Reaffirms Policy, Japanese Yen (JPY) At 136 | Oanda

Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Reaffirms Policy, Japanese Yen (JPY) At 136 | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.06.2022 12:17
Kuroda pledges to maintain easy policy The Japanese yen is one of those currencies that keeps investors on its toes, and it has certainly lived up to its billing in recent weeks. USD/JPY has shot up 5.79% in the month of June and is back above the 136.00 line. BoJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, ticked upwards to 1.5% in May, up from 1.4% prior and matching the forecast. There is no mystery behind the yen’s sharp depreciation of some 17% in 2022. The currency has been at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential, which has continued to widen. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an aggressive rate-tightening cycle, with the Fed delivering a massive 0.75% increase at its last meeting. The Bank of Japan continues to take an opposite approach, that of an ultra-accommodative policy. The BoJ has maintained this stance at a time when other central banks are tightening, in order to boost the fragile Japanese economy. While other major economies are struggling with surging inflation, Japan’s inflation is around 2% – quite low but nonetheless on the rise after some 15 years of deflation. Governor Kuroda reiterated on Wednesday that the BoJ would maintain accommodative policy, insisting that the increase was mostly a result of higher energy prices. Kuroda has said in the past that the present bout of inflation is temporary and that the BoJ would not change policy until inflation was anchored by higher domestic demand and an acceleration in wage growth. With neither of those criteria likely to occur anytime soon, we can expect the BoJ to continue to tenaciously defend its yield curve control and do little more than jawbone about the exchange rate. This does not bode well for the yen, which could continue its sharp slide and fall below the 140.00 line. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY faces resistance at 1.3654 and 1.3785 There is support at 1.3540 and 1.3409   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. BOJ reaffirms policy, yen at 136 - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Continues To Rise. What Will US Dollar Do?

USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Continues To Rise. What Will US Dollar Do?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 28.06.2022 15:14
June rollercoaster ride for Swissie It has been a tale of two Junes for the Swiss franc. USD/CHF rose about 400 points in the first half of the month and breached above the parity line. Since then, it has surrendered almost all of those gains. The highlight was the SNB shocker on June 16th, when the central bank raised rates from -0.75% to -0.25%, a huge move that was totally unexpected. The rate hike predictably sent the Swiss franc sharply higher, and the currency has continued to strengthen in the second half of June. On Friday, USD/CHF fell as low as 0.9521, its lowest level since April 21st. The reason that the SNB raised rates in such dramatic fashion was to keep inflation at bay. Inflation rose to 2.9% YoY in May. This is much lower compared to the US or UK, but marked Switzerland’s highest inflation rate since 1993. The Bank’s rate statement said that further hikes could be implemented in order to stabilize inflation. The SNB, unlike most major central banks, intervenes in currency markets as it sees fit. The SNB carefully monitors the exchange rate and has intervened in the past when it deemed the Swiss franc’s value as too high, which is detrimental to Switzerland’s export-reliant economy. The SNB decided that the priority was to curb rising inflation, knowing that a sharp rise in interest rates would cause the Swiss franc to dramatically appreciate. SNB President Thomas Jordan said last week that economic data indicated a need to continue to tighten monetary policy, but said it was unclear when this would occur. The SNB may not be embarking a rate-hike cycle anytime soon, but with a potential rate hike on the table, the Swiss franc has upside risk. . USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF has support at 0.9496 and 0.9412 There is resistance at 0.9605 and 0.9689 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swiss franc continues to rise - MarketPulseMarketPulse
US dollar stages impressive rally

How Is AUD/USD Doing? Will Australian Dollar Go UP?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 28.06.2022 13:04
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6944 in European trade, up 0.28% on the day. Retail sales expected to soften Australia releases retail sales for May on Wednesday. Retail sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and the markets are braced for a weak reading of 0.3%, following a 0.9% gain in April. Consumers are holding tightly onto their purse strings, as interest rates are on the rise and the cost-of-living crisis is intensifying. A deceleration in retail sales could cause slowdown fears and push the Australian dollar lower. The markets are already nervous about an economic slowdown, with the RBA in the midst of its rate-tightening cycle. The central bank surprised the markets with a super-size 0.50% hike earlier in June, and the RBA could deliver another 0.50% increase at next week’s meeting, or stick with a modest 0.25% rise. The cash rate is still relatively low at 0.85%, and the Bank will have to raise rates aggressively in order to curb soaring inflation. On Friday, Governor Lowe stated that there were no plans to raise rates by a massive 0.75% hike at the upcoming meeting. This of course does not rule out the possibility of such a move at later meetings. Lowe suggested last week that wage growth should be about 3.5%, half of the 7% inflation rate that the RBA is projecting by year’s end. This would essentially mean a pay cut for workers and could be the recipe for labour unrest if workers demand higher wages to compensate for soaring inflation. Wage growth has been very modest and is not a cause of the jump in inflation; rather, the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions, notably in China, have been the primary drivers of inflation. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6936, followed by resistance at 0.7004 There is support at 0.6877 and 0.6809 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Reaffirms Policy, Japanese Yen (JPY) At 136 | Oanda

USD/JPY Chart | Yen ticks higher after BoJ inflation

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 28.06.2022 12:23
Inflation is slowly moving higher The phrase “surging inflation” is in the financial press on a daily basis, as the major economies grapple with what has become public enemy number one. Japan, however, does not come to mind as a country dealing with high inflation, and indeed inflationary pressures there are much more modest than what we’re seeing elsewhere. Still, given that Japan was dealing with deflation for decades, the fact that inflation has moved above the Bank of Japan’s target of 2% is a significant development. Last week, Japan’s Core CPI for May came in at 2.1% YoY, matching the April reading. The last time Core CPI was above 2.0% was back in 2015. Earlier today, BOJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 1.5% in May, up a notch from the 1.4% in April. Next up is Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, which is expected to rise to 2.1%, up from 1.9%. The inflation sands have dramatically shifted – just 13 months ago, Tokyo Core CPI was in negative territory. The BoJ wants to see higher inflation, but has argued that the current cost-push inflation is temporary, since it is driven by higher food and fuel prices. Governor Kuroda has insisted that the BoJ’s ultra-loose policy will not change until inflation is boosted by increased domestic demand and stronger wage growth. As part of this stance, the BoJ has vigorously defended its yield curve control and capped the yield on the 10-year JGB at 0.25%. The BoJ’s yield curve control has come at a steep price for the Japanese yen, which has plunged around 17% in 2022 and recently fell to a 24-year low. The burning question facing investors is will the BoJ retreat and abandon its 0.25% cap in order to stabilize the currency. On a broader level, the BoJ finds itself out of line with other major central banks, which have embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle in order to curb inflation. Will the BoJ make adjustments to its ultra-loose policy? If so, the long-suffering yen could get a boost. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY tested resistance at 1.3540 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.3654 USD/JPY has support at 1.3409 and 1.3295 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Yen ticks higher after BoJ inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 29, 2022

USD/JPY | Yen in calm waters ahead of inflation | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.06.2022 23:24
Yen eyes inflation data Japan has seen inflation move higher, although nowhere near the levels in the US or the UK, which are not far from double-digits. Last week, core CPI for May came in at 2.1% YoY, unchanged from April. This was the second straight month that core CPI remained above the BoJ’s target of 2%. This is a dramatic shift, given that Japan struggled with deflation for decades. The driver behind rising inflation is higher food and energy prices, as well as the plummeting yen. Notably, wages have not risen. The Bank of Japan has insisted that this cost-push inflation is temporary. The BoJ wants to see stronger domestic demand and an acceleration in wage growth before it will consider altering its ultra-loose monetary policy. This has taken a massive toll on the yen, which has plunged about 17% this year. The BoJ released its Summary of Opinions from the June meeting, with members showing support for the Bank’s monetary policy. One member said that upward pressure on JGB yields could be expected. The Bank has tenaciously defended its yield curve control and intervened in order to cap 10-year yields at 0.25%. With the Federal Reserve in the midst of an aggressive rate-tightening cycle, the US-Japan rate differential will widen, putting more pressure on the yen. It’s a busy week ahead for Japanese releases on the calendar, highlighted by further inflation releases. On Tuesday, we’ll get a look at BOJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge. This will be followed on Friday by Tokyo Core CPI for June, which could breach above 2.0%, after a 1.9% gain in May. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY tested resistance at 1.3540 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.3654 USD/JPY has support at 1.3409 and 1.3295 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Yen in calm waters ahead of inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
AUD/USD Eyes 0.6945 on Strong Australia Retail Sales Data

FX: AUD/USD Is Not Very Dynamic. What Will RBA Decide? Will Interest Rate Be Hiked!?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.06.2022 15:13
The Australian dollar had a relatively quiet week and the limited movement has continued on Monday. There are no Australian releases today, so barring any surprises from today’s US durable goods release, I expect little movement from AUD/USD in today’s session. The RBA holds its policy meeting next week and is widely expected to raise rates. In June, the RBA hiked by 0.50%, surprising the markets which had expected a smaller move. Even with the 0.50% salvo, the cash rate is currently only at 0.85%, meaning that the RBA will have to dramatically raise rates in order to curb spiralling inflation. In the first quarter, inflation rose to 5.1% and the RBA is predicting that inflation will rise to 6% before year’s end. Lowe says 0.75% hike unlikely Governor Lowe signalled on Friday that the RBA would not deliver a super-size 0.75% hike at next week’s meeting. Lowe said that such a move was “not on the table” and that the Bank was looking at “graduated steps” at the July meeting. This means that the July meeting is live, with the RBA most likely to deliver a rate hike of 0.25% or 0.50%. There has been speculation that the cash rate could hit 4% in 2022, although some quick math indicates that the RBA would have to implement at least one 075% hike to achieve that level. Lowe also touched upon the quandary facing the RBA (and other central banks), that being how to curb inflation with high interest rates without causing an economic downturn. The notion of agressively raising rates and still being able to guide the economy to a ‘soft landing’ is a huge challenge, and Lowe acknowledged that the RBA had a “narrow path” to succeed. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6936. Below, there is support at 0.6877 There is resistance at 0.7004 and 0.7063 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Australian dollar drifting - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Euro slides as inflation jumps

Is Volatility Coming To EUR/USD!? Euro Calm, ECB (European Central Bank) Hosts Central Bankers | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.06.2022 12:43
The new trading week kicked off quietly, as there are no European releases on Monday. Not surprisingly, the euro is in calm waters today, trading slightly below the 1.06 line. Central bankers to huddle at ECB forum The ECB will host its annual in Sintra, Portugal this week, with ECB President Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey all attending. The three will have plenty to talk about, as central banks are struggling with the shifting sands in the economic landscape. Inflation has become the number one issue, with the major central banks scrambling as they play catch up with the inflation curve. The Fed and BoE have aggressively tightened policy, while the ECB has been lagging behind and only raised rates in July at the earliest. Only a few months ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde was confidently stating that the ECB would remain out of sync with the Fed with regard to monetary policy, but she has been forced to change her tune as the eurozone grapples with surging inflation, driven by lockdowns in China and the Ukraine war. The central banks are in a quandary with regard to monetary policy. Higher interest rates will eventually curb inflation, but they also slow growth. The challenge is to raise rates sufficiently to wrestle down inflation, while ensuring a ‘soft landing’ for the economy and avoiding a recession. Agustin Carstens, head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will also attend the meeting, and his message is likely to be a pessimistic one. Carstens presented the BIS’ annual report on Sunday, which warned that the “risk of stagflation looms over the global economy” due to the new inflation era and weaker growth. The report urged policy makers to take steps for “more normal” fiscal and monetary growth. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD faces weak resistance at 1.0618, followed by resistance at 1.0680 EUR/USD has support at 1.0544 and 1.0482 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro calm, ECB hosts central bankers - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Rates Spark: Some two-way risk in rates

EUR/USD | Euro drifting as German confidence dips

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.06.2022 15:08
It has been a relatively quiet week in the currency markets, and the limited activity has continued today, with the euro unchanged. German consumer confidence drops Germany, the bellwether for the eurozone, continues to churn out weak numbers, raising concerns that the bloc could be headed toward a recession. German ifo Business Climate dipped to 92.3 in June, down from 93.0 in May (92.8 est.) Germany and the rest of the eurozone remain vulnerable to negative economic factors which, unfortunately, do not show signs of improving anytime soon. These are the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions due to lockdowns in China, and spiralling inflation. The ECB has been slow to respond to higher inflation and the danger of stagflation is a serious risk. Germany has been slowly trying to wean itself off of Russian energy exports, but Moscow has decided to retaliate by decreasing its natural gas exports to Germany. This prompted Berlin to implement phase two of its emergency energy plan earlier this week. The energy crisis is getting worse and could result in the euro losing ground. The currency slipped below the 1.0500 line last week, and the risk is tilted to the downside for the euro due to the deteriorating situation with regard to Russian energy exports. Fed Chair Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill this week was keenly watched by nervous markets. Powell didn’t hold back any punches, acknowledging that a recession was possible and a soft landing for the economy would be a challenge. At the same time, Powell sounded relatively optimistic about the strength of the US economy, and this message appeared to calm the financial markets, for the time being at least. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD has initial resistance at 1.0612, followed by resistance at 1.0727 EUR/USD has support at 1.0485 and 1.0370 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro drifting as German confidence dips - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

Sterling rises despite weak UK data. Let's Look At GBP/USD Chart | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.06.2022 14:33
UK retail sales decline again The pound has edged higher today, shrugging off soft UK releases. Retail sales for May fell 0.5%, and declined 4.7% YoY, below the estimate of -4.5% (-5.7% prior). It was a similar story for core retail sales, which came in at -5.7% YoY, worse than the forecast of -5.1% (-6.1% prior). The sharp declines in consumer spending should not come as a surprise, given the inflation squeeze which continues to drag down the UK economy. Consumer confidence numbers remain in deep-freeze, as GfK consumer confidence for May notched lower to -41 in June, down from -40 in May. The continuing rise in the cost of living has become a crisis for UK households, and the predictable result has been weaker consumer confidence and spending. Inflation in the UK shows no signs of peaking, as headline CPI rose to 9.1% in May, up a notch from 9.0% in April. Inflation expectations are rising, and this week’s major rail strike could be an initial response from organized labour, which will not be satisfied with 3% wage hikes when inflation is closing in on double digits. The BoE hasn’t had succeeded in curbing inflation and expects inflation to top 11% later this year before finally easing. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the BoE has been reluctant to aggressively raise rates, with the BoE’s most recent hike of 0.25% paling in comparison to the Fed’s salvo of 0.75%. Fed Chair Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill this week was keenly watched by nervous markets. Powell didn’t hold back any punches, acknowledging that a recession was “certainly a possibility”, adding that a soft landing would be “very challenging”. Powell mentioned the usual suspects beyond the Fed’s control, namely, high commodity prices, supply chain issues and the Ukraine war. The Fed has not ruled out further 0.75% hikes, which will help curb inflation but could tip the economy into a recession. . GBP/USD Technical 1.2187 is providing support, followed by 1.1969  GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.2283. Above, there is resistance at 1.2441 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Sterling rises despite weak UK data - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 29, 2022

JPY - Japanese yen’s rally takes pause | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.06.2022 12:37
The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Friday, trading at the 135.00 line. Lower US yields boost yen The Japanese yen showed some strength yesterday, gaining around 1% against the dollar. The yen’s improvement was a mechanical response to lower US yields rather than any positive factors related to the yen. Higher US yields have been the driver behind the yen’s sharp descent of around 17% this year. With the Federal Reserve delivering aggressive rate hikes and the BoJ capping the yields on JGBs, the math is simple – as the US/Japan rate differential has widened, USD/JPY has moved higher. The Bank of Japan is sticking with its ultra-loose policy, insisting that the fragile economy is in need of substantial monetary easing. The BoJ has tenaciously defended its yield curve control, keeping 10% JGB yields capped at 0.25%. This uncompromising stance has sent the yen to its lowest levels since September 1998, raising speculation that the BoJ or Ministry of Finance would intervene to defend the yen. USD/JPY broke above 125.00, then 130.00 and finally 135.00 without any intervention other than some ineffective jawboning expressing Tokyo’s discontent with the rapid deprecation of the yen. Investors would love to know if there is a “line in the sand” for the yen, which if crossed would trigger currency intervention. There are voices warning that 140.00 is that line in the sand, but I would question that view. USD/JPY has been at much higher levels in the past, and the BoJ has shown that the exchange rate is not a policy target. With the BoJ focused on keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels, it would be a huge surprise if the BoJ radically changed policy just because the yen fell slightly from its current levels. . USD/JPY Technical There is resistance at 1.3657 and 1.3814 USD/JPY has support at 1.3404 and 1.3247   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Japanese yen's rally takes pause - MarketPulseMarketPulse
GBP/USD Increased, S&P 500 Went Down By Ca. 1%, Nasdaq Lost 1.33%. EUR/USD Exited Below-1.04 Levels

Pound drifting ahead of UK retail sales

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 23.06.2022 22:55
Markets brace for soft retail sales It continues to be a quiet week for the British pound. That could change on Friday, with the markets bracing for more bad news from retail sales data for May. Headline retail sales is expected at -4.5%, after an April reading of -.4.9%. Core retail sales are expected to decline by 5.1%, following a -6.1% reading in April. Weak retail sales numbers should not come as a surprise, with UK consumers hammered by surging inflation and grappling with a worsening cost of living crisis. There was no relief (not that any was expected) from yesterday’s inflation report. Headline CPI rose to 9.1% in May, a notch higher than the 9.0% reading in April. Inflation expectations are moving higher, and this week’s major rail strike reflects the deep discontent amongst workers who are watching prices soar. The Bank of England isn’t inspiring much confidence, as its recent 0.25% rate hike was a tepid move. The BoE has projected that inflation won’t peak until it tops 11% later this year, which will be cold comfort for UK households. In the US, the Federal Reserve is also in a tough fight with high inflation and delivered a massive 0.75% hike last week in order to slow down inflation.  Fed Chair Powell testified before a Senate committee yesterday and will brief a congressional committee later today. Powell was transparent in his remarks, acknowledging that a recession was “certainly a possibility”, adding that a soft landing would be “very challenging”. Powell mentioned the usual suspects beyond the Fed’s control, namely, high commodity prices, supply chain issues and the Ukraine war. The Fed will have to make some tough decisions regarding future rate hikes, such as whether to deliver further 0.75% hikes, which will help curb inflation but could tip the economy into a recession. . GBP/USD Technical 1.2187 is providing support, followed by 1.1969  There is resistance at 1.2283 and 1.2441     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound drifting ahead of UK retail sales - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Reaffirms Policy, Japanese Yen (JPY) At 136 | Oanda

Japanese yen eyes inflation report | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 23.06.2022 15:15
The Japanese yen is in positive territory today, extending its gains from yesterday. USD/JPY is trading at 135.46 in the European session, down 0.56% on the day. Yen rises as US yields dip The yen has gained a bit of strength as USD/JPY is back below 136.00, after rising close to 136.71 earlier in the week, its highest level since September 1998. The yen received a reprieve from its recent slide due to a drop yesterday in US Treasury yields, rather than any newfound strength related to the yen. This is another indication that USD/JPY movement is at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential, with the Bank of Japan holding firm on its yield cap for JGBs. The BoJ is not showing any signs of adjusting its ultra-accommodative policy, leaving the yen to bear the brunt of this inflexible stance. As a result, the yen has been pummelled by the US dollar, with the yen plunging some 17% in 2022. The BoJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance have jawboned about the exchange rate, noting their concern. The verbal intervention has clearly not worked, raising the question as to whether Tokyo has a ‘line in the sand’, which if crossed, would trigger intervention in the currency markets to support the ailing yen. There had been speculation that a move above 125.00 or 130.00 could result in a response, but that failed to happen. Currently, there are voices stating that the 140 level is that line in the sand. BoJ Governor Kuroda has insisted that the Bank needs to support Japan’s fragile economy with monetary easing, and has said that the exchange rate is not a policy target. Kuroda has even said that a weak yen has benefits for the economy, such as making exports more attractive. Given this stance, I question whether a 140.00 yen will trigger currency intervention. True, the yen is at 24-year highs, but let’s not forget that USD/JPY has been above 200.00 and even 300.00 in the past, and the BoJ has indicated that the exchange rate is not a priority. . USD/JPY Technical There is resistance at 1.3657 and 1.3814 USD/JPY has support at 1.3404 and 1.3247 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Japanese yen eyes inflation report - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Rates Spark: The hawks are circling | ING Economics

Euro slips on weak PMIs EUR/USD May Be Surprising! | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 23.06.2022 13:40
The euro is in negative territory on Thursday and has pared most of this week’s gains. EUR/USD is trading just above the 1.05 line in the European session, down 0.58% on the day. German, eurozone PMIs soften Today’s German and eurozone PMIs indicated slower activity in May, which reflects weaker economic activity. Manufacturing and Services PMIs in both Germany and the eurozone weakened, although they still pointed to expansion, with readings above the neutral 50.0 level. Nevertheless, the releases are a cause for concern. As the largest economy in the eurozone, Germany is a bellwether for the bloc. With the outlook for the German economy looking gloomier, it’s a bad sign for the rest of the eurozone. The German economy has been hit by a fall in exports, and high inflation and economic uncertainty have hurt domestic demand. Businesses are more pessimistic about the economic outlook, pointing to the war in Ukraine, supply disruptions in China and higher prices. The latest setback is that Russia is decreasing its supply of natural gas to Germany, raising fears that Germany may run short of natural gas in the winter. This has prompted German to enter Phase 2 of its three-stage emergency gas plan. The euro has taken a tumble and EUR/USD is down over 550 points since April 1st. The slow response of the ECB to spiralling inflation hasn’t helped, as the ECB is yet to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, while the Fed has been raising rates and delivered a mammoth 75-bps hike last week. This has widened the US/Europe rate differential and sent the euro lower. Unless US yields fall, the euro is likely to continue losing ground. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD has initial resistance at 1.0612, followed by resistance at 1.0727 EUR/USD tested support at 1.0485 in the Asian session. Below, there is support at 1.0370   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

NZD/USD Chart May Surprise FX Traders! Has New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Strengthened!?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 22.06.2022 16:03
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6261, down 1.14% on the day. New Zealand data has been mixed this week. BusinessNZ Services Index rose to 55.2 in May, up from 52.2 in April. This points to stronger expansion in the services area. However, Westpac Consumer Confidence plunged to 78.7 in May, its lowest level ever recorded. This was down from 92.1 in April. Consumers are very unhappy about the cost of living crisis and the survey found that consumers are scaling back on leisure activities, such as dining at restaurants. The double blow of higher mortgage rates and increases in living expenses has taken a large chunk of disposable income. If this results in a decrease in consumer spending, it could lead to a downturn in economic growth. Consumer angst could have a major effect on the Reserve Bank’s policy. If consumer demand sinks, the central bank may have to ease off on the size of future rate hikes. The RBNZ has been tightening aggressively and the cash rate, which is currently at 2%, is expected to rise to 3% by the end of August and possibly to 4% in 12 months’ time.  The RBNZ is in a fierce battle with inflation and if demand falls, inflation could peak and allow the central bank to ease up on its tightening cycle. The Bank is also monitoring inflation expectations, with policy makers keen to ensure that expectations don’t become unanchored. Powell in the spotlight With no US releases today, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual appearance on Capitol Hill will take over center stage. Powell will brief lawmakers today and tomorrow, and anxious investors will be on the lookout for clues on where monetary policy is headed. Will Powell signal that he plans to ease on tightening? Powell’s testimony could have a strong impact on the financial markets and should be treated as a market-mover for the US dollar. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD tested support at 0.6302 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6209 There is resistance at 0.6408 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZ dollar slides as risk sentiment falls - MarketPulseMarketPulse
FX: Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on June 30

FX: How Is GBP/USD Doing!? (GBP) British pound yawns as CPI matches estimate | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 22.06.2022 14:03
UK inflation nudged higher in May, as was expected. The headline release rose to 9.1% YoY, up slightly from the 9.0% gain in April. On a monthly basis, CPI nudged higher to 0.7%, up from 0.6% in April. UK inflation nudges higher The fact that UK inflation accelerated and an inflation peak remains elusive is not positive news. Still, the 9.1% reading matched the estimate and the market reaction has been muted. The ball is in the court of the Bank of England, but the trouble is that Bailey & Co. appear to have raised the white flag in response to the inflation onslaught. The BoE is projecting that inflation will peak above 11%(!) later in 2022, which is cold comfort for Britons who are grappling with a serious cost of living crisis. Inflation expectations are rising, and if these become unanchored, it will be a mammoth task for the government and the BoE to get expectations back into the box. There is a wave of discontent among workers and this week’s paralysing rail strike could be just the start of major labour unrest. Consumer confidence is understandably down, and if this translates into less consumer spending, the economic woes will only compound. With no US releases today, investors will be directing their full attention at what Fed Chair Powell has to say on Capitol Hill. The markets will be looking for clues on the direction of monetary policy and the tone of Powell’s testimony will be doubly important to jittery markets which are becoming more concerned about a recession by the day. Powell’s appearance could shake up the currency markets, which are having a quiet day. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD tested support at 1.2187 earlier in the day. Next, there is support at 1.1969  There is resistance at 1.2441 and 1.2659 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound yawns as CPI matches estimate - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD seeks support | Orbex

Canada’s CPI expected to rise

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 22.06.2022 13:07
The Canadian dollar started the week with gains, but has reversed directions on Wednesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2978, up 0.47% on the day. CPI expected to hit 7.4% Canada releases the May inflation report later today, and the markets are bracing for another rise. CPI is expected to rise to 7.4%, which would be a sharp rise from the 6.8% gain in April, a 30-year high. In a sign of the times, today’s inflation report will include used car prices for the first time and give more weight to gasoline prices. With no sign of the long-sought-after inflation peak, the Bank of Canada is under strong pressure to ratchet up its rate hikes. The BoC holds its next meeting on July 13th, and a CPI reading above 6.8% would virtually cement a massive 0.75% rate hike. The markets have priced in a 0.75% at about 80%. RBC and CIBC also expect the central bank to deliver a 0.75% increase. The BoC has warned that it expects inflation to move higher in the near term and has signalled that it will raise rates towards the upper end of the 2%-3% neutral range. With the benchmark rate currently at 1.5%, that means that we can expect significant tightening in the second half of the year. The BoC is also looking to remain in sync with the Federal Reserve, which delivered a super-size 0.75% hike just last week. There are no US releases on Wednesday, but there will be plenty of interest in what Fed Chair Powell has to say on Capitol Hill. The markets will be looking for clues on the direction of monetary policy. Last week, Powell said that further 0.75% hikes were unlikely, and a repeat of this stance could dampen sentiment towards the US dollar. At the same time, if Powell’s forecast for the US economy is on the pessimistic side, risk appetite could fall and send the greenback higher. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2894. Above, there is resistance at the round number of 1.3000 There is support at 1.2706 and 1.2600 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Canada's CPI expected to rise - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

FX Cable Chart (GBP/USD) May Surprise You! Let's Have A Look How British Pound Is Doing Against US Dollar Ahead Of UK Inflation Rate| Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 21.06.2022 22:23
The pound is having a quiet week, after some sharp swings last week. Monday was a holiday in the US, and it was a quiet session for the US dollar. The currency markets are calm today as well, with the exception of the sinking Japanese yen. British pound eyes CPI Last week was the turn of the central banks to perform on stage, with the Fed, BoE and SNB all raising rates. All three central banks are keeping a close eye on rising inflation and tightening policy in order to wrestle down inflation. The BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation, and last week’s tepid rate hike of 0.25% won’t silence the critics. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday, with headline CPI expected to nudge higher to 9.1%, up from 9.0% in April. The BoE estimates that inflation will peak above 11%, sometime later this year. With the BoE grimly predicting that inflation will hit double-digits, the cost of living crisis, which is already bad, is poised to get even worse. This has led to inflation expectations continuing to accelerate, and the UK rail strike, the biggest in 30 years, is a reflection of workers taking extreme action in the face of rising inflation. Consumer confidence is down, and a drop and consumer spending would be disastrous for an economy that may be headed for a recession. In the US, Fed Chair Powell will testify on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, and the ratings should be high, following the Fed’s largest rate hike since 1994. Fed members Barkin and Mester will speak later today, and the markets will be listening, looking for insights regarding upcoming rate hikes. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2292. Above, we have resistance at 1.2441  There is support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound calm ahead of inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Reaffirms Policy, Japanese Yen (JPY) At 136 | Oanda

Japanese yen punches past 136 | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 21.06.2022 15:19
After a quiet start to the week, the US dollar is again rallying against the hapless Japanese yen. USD/JPY is currently trading at 136.18, up 0.78% on the day. The yen is trading at its lowest level since September 1998. Yen gets no help from BoJ It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the yen continues to lose ground. The currency has been left to the (dollar) wolves by the Bank of Japan. The BoJ signalled at Friday’s meeting that it would stick to its ultra-accommodative policy, despite pressure to adjust its yield curve control. The central bank has tenaciously capped the 10-year yield on JGBs at 0.25%, intervening to keep rates from moving higher. Governor Kuroda has defended this policy as critical to support the fragile economy and push inflation higher. The price for the BoJ’s stance is being paid by the yen, which is losing ground as the US/Japan rate differential widens. The central bank purchased a record USD 81 billion in JGBs last week, after the 10-year yield breached above 0.25%. This has pushed the yield to 0.23%, but USD/JPY surged 2.11% on Friday and continues to move higher. With the Federal Reserve in the midst of an aggressive rate-tightening cycle, USD/JPY appears headed towards the lofty 140 level. Will Japan intervene in order to stabilize the exchange rate? The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance have resorted to verbal intervention, warning that they are concerned about the rapid descent of the yen and our monitoring the situation. The jawboning has not had much effect, as the yen shows no signs of rebounding. There has been speculation that the BoJ has a ‘line in the sand’ at which it will step in and defend the yen, but USD/JPY continues to rise without hindrance. Could a 140 yen be that line in the sand? . USD/JPY Technical There is resistance at 1.3657 and 1.3814 USD/JPY has support at 1.3404 and 1.3247 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

AUD/USD - RBA’s Lowe signals 50-bps hike | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 21.06.2022 14:07
It continues to be a quiet week for the Australian dollar, in sharp contrast to last week’s roller-coaster ride. AUD/USD has edged higher today, as the market response to the RBA minutes and a speech from Governor Lowe has been muted. RBA minutes, Lowe offer few clues Anyone looking for some guidance from the RBA minutes came away disappointed, as the gist of the minutes was a defence of the surprise move to raise interest rates by 50bps at the meeting. The markets had expected a modest hike of 0.25%. The minutes noted that even with the supersize 50-bps move, the Cash Rate remained below 1%, and it was clear to members that policy remained highly stimulative and further rate hikes would be required. The minutes noted that the RBA was relying on strong consumer spending and a solid labour market to enable the central bank to continue to raise rates. Inflation remains the RBA’s number one time on the agenda, with Q4 CPI rising to 7.0%. The minutes stated that the RBA expected inflation to continue to accelerate before easing and would move towards the top of the RBA’s target of 1%-3%. With an inflation peak still nowhere to be seen, the markets have priced in 95% odds of a 50bps move in July. RBC and Goldman Sachs are predicting a series of 50bps moves in July, August and September. It seems clear that the RBA will be in a very aggressive mode in the second half of 2022, which could provide key support for the Australian dollar. In a speech after the minutes, Governor Lowe stated that a 75-bps hike was off the table in July. Analysts were quick to point out that Lowe only ruled out such a move in July, perhaps giving himself room for a super-size hike at a later date. Lowe also admitted that the exit from the RBA’s yield target in 2021 had been “disorderly” and the credibility of the bank had been damaged. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6952. Below, there is support at 0.6834 There is resistance at 0.7052 and 0.7170 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. RBA's Lowe signals 50-bps hike - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

Pound steady after rough week | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.06.2022 16:47
The British pound is slightly higher at the start of the week, and I expect a quiet session, with US markets closed for a holiday. British pound under pressure There was plenty of volatility from GBP/USD last week, as the currency started the week with gains, only to reverse directions and end the week in the red, the third losing week in a row. Perhaps the biggest red flag from the pound’s slide was the break below the symbolic 1.20 level last week, for the first time since 2020. The pound has been hammered in 2022, plunging as much as 1500 points. The BoE rate hike of 0.25% on Thursday failed to impress the markets, with GBP/USD sliding 1.37% in the Thursday session. Three of the nine MPC members voted for a 0.50% increase, and it appears that the 0.25% was too feeble a move by the BoE, even though the benchmark rate is now at its highest level since 2009. The markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 0.50% rise at the next meeting in August, and there will be strong pressure for the BoE to deliver a 0.50% salvo unless inflation unexpectedly begins to ease. The UK releases May CPI on Wednesday, with an estimate of 9.1%, up slightly from the April reading of 9.0%. The dark clouds hovering above the UK economy are not good news for the struggling pound. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. J.P. Morgan said on Friday that the likelihood of a recession in the UK has increased over the next year or two, warning that a recession in the US would spill over to the UK. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 There is resistance at 1.2441 and 1.2659   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound steady after rough week - MarketPulseMarketPulse
End of Quarter; Outlook for US dims, but China shines; H2 may make bonds relevant again in a portfolio

How Is GBP/USD Doing? British pound pares post-BoE gains | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.06.2022 15:40
Pound jumps after BoE rate hike The pound had a wild day on Thursday, trading in a 350-point range. Sterling traded in a 300-point range overnight, with markets not quite sure to make of the BoE’s 0.25% rate increase. In the end, the pound received a thumbs-up and posted a gain of 1.45%.  The rate hike, which was the fifth in a row, was indeed modest, but investors liked that the BoE signalled that more rate hikes were on the way. As well, the MPC’s split 6-3 decision (3 members voted for a 0.50% hike) no doubt sent a signal that the BoE could provide a hawkish pivot if inflation does not peak. The BoE has warned of a recession and has forecast that inflation will top 11%, making it difficult to feel reassured by the central bank, but it appears that with the MPC unanimously voting to raise rates at the meeting, investors had something to feel positive about. The US dollar has shown that it can recover quickly and the risk for the pound remains tilted to the downside, with dark clouds hovering above the UK economy. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. The OECD has forecast that the UK economy will grow by 3.6% this year, but will stagnate in 2023, which would make it the worst-performing G-7 economy in 2023. In a week of dramatic central bank decisions, the Federal Reserve won the highlight of the week. The Fed delivered a 0.75% salvo, the first since 1994, bringing rates to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn’t expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. The move is a clear signal that the Fed plans to use all available tools to wrestle down inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2215 and 1.2016 There is resistance at 1.2407 and 1.2514     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound pares post-BoE gains - MarketPulseMarketPulse
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

(NZD) New Zealand dollar fights back | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 15.06.2022 22:12
NZD/USD is in positive territory on Wednesday, after an extended slide. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6244, up 0.46% on the day. The New Zealand dollar received a boost today from an unexpected source, the European Central Bank. In a surprise move, the ECB held an emergency meeting earlier in the day and announced a new tool to combat the risk of eurozone fragmentation. The meeting was in response to rising yields in highly indebted countries, such as Italy and Greece, which has sparked fears of a debt crisis. After the announcement, yields on Italian and Greek bonds fell, sparking stronger risk appetite and pushing the New Zealand dollar higher. Markets brace for 0.75% hike from Fed This week’s highlight is the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is under pressure as red-hot inflation shows no signs of easing. CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but the markets are now pricing in (at almost 100%) a 0.75% hike. This will likely result in a sharp response from the financial markets. A massive 0.75% move, even one that has been priced in, should be bullish for the US dollar. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The price for the Fed’s aggressive rate-tightening cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. New Zealand releases first-quarter GDP on Wednesday, with the markets expecting a modest gain of 0.6% QoQ. This follows a 3.0% gain in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on the strength of the economy, as the Bank tries to steer the economy to a soft landing while raising interest rates. The FOMC rate announcement will likely overshadow the GDP release and play the pied piper for NZD/USD movement. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6224. Next, there is resistance at 0.6288 There is support at 0.6099 and 0.5947 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar fights back - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2022

FX: GBP/USD - British Pound jumps ahead of Fed, BOE meetings

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 15.06.2022 19:03
The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. This follows an abysmal 5-day slide which saw the pound fall as much as 600 points. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2060, up 0.53% on the day. FOMC expected to deliver 75-bp salvo All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is clearly under pressure as inflation surges with no peak in sight – CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. The Fed’s aggressive stance may shift into overdrive, with a 75-bp hike priced in by the markets at almost 100%. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but hawkish winds are blowing, and a 75-bp move will likely elicit a sharp response from the financial markets. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. I would not be surprised to see the US dollar cash in with strong gains following today’s meeting. The Fed finds itself in a tough spot as it struggles to combat inflationary pressures, which are now more than four times higher than the Fed’s inflation target of 2 per cent. The price for the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. BoE expected to hike by 25bp After the Fed is done, attention will shift to the Bank of England, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The likely scenario is that the cautious BoE will raise rates by a modest 25 bps, but we could see a larger hike if the Fed is overly hawkish at its meeting. With unemployment in the UK at a low level of 3.7%, the BoE has room to be more aggressive with its monetary policy. As for the British pound, a 0.25% hike won’t be of much help. If the BoE surprises with a larger rate increase, the pound would likely respond with gains. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2108 and 1.2215 There is support at 1.1916. This is followed by 1.1772, a major support level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Is Crypto Crash Still There!? Why does Bitcoin (1 BTC To USD) continue to decline despite the rise in "buy the dip" sentiment?  | InstaForex

FX: AUD/USD Chart. Aussie surges ahead FOMC, jobs report | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 15.06.2022 15:36
The Australian dollar has reversed directions on Wednesday and climbed sharply. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6937, up 0.98% on the day. If your fancy is a currency with wild swings, then stay put and don’t change the channel. The Australian dollar continues to fluctuate and is up sharply today after a nasty 5-day slide, in which the Aussie plunged almost 400 points. Just yesterday I wrote how risk appetite was nowhere to be found and the Australian dollar was taking it on the chin. Fast forward 24 hours, and the markets have regained their bullish outlook, sending equities and risk currencies like the Australian dollar sharply higher. If anything, the sharp swings are reflective of the nervous markets, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The ECB grabbed the spotlight earlier today, announcing an emergency meeting today. This has raised speculation that the ECB could take a dovish pivot and suspend rate hikes, which has the markets in a positive mood. Will the Fed hike by 75 basis points? The markets have priced in a massive 75-bp hike from the Federal Reserve at virtually 100%, with some voices calling for a nuclear salvo of 100-bp. The Fed hasn’t hiked by 75-bp since 1994 and such a move should be bullish for the US dollar, even though it has been priced in. The extent of the rate hike will be closely watched, as will Fed Chair Powell’s rate statement. Hold onto your seats for what could be a volatile North American session. With market attention squarely on the Fed, investors completely ignored a sharp decline in Australia’s consumer confidence, which declined by 4.50% in June, after a -5.60% reading in May. Following the Fed announcement, Australia releases inflation expectations and the May employment report. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6902. Above, there is resistance at 0.6973 There is support at 0.6765 and 0.6654 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

New Zealand dollar sliding, GDP next | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.06.2022 23:20
NZD/USD has extended its losses today. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6222, down 0.59% on the day. The New Zealand dollar continues to fall, and fast. The currency has slumped 1.93% this week and is trading just above 0.6216, a 2-year low. Market jitters ahead of FOMC There is plenty of hand-wringing ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as the financial markets nervously await the next rate increase. The meeting is live, with the Fed most likely to raise rates by 0.50% for a second straight meeting. However, there are voices calling for a massive 0.75% hike, notably, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs. It would be a shock if the Fed delivered a 0.75% increase, given the turbulent economic environment. The recent US inflation report shows inflation continues to accelerate, raising doubts that an aggressive Fed can guide the economy to a soft landing and the inversion of US Treasury yields is adding to these concerns. A 0.75% salvo from the Fed could lead to a sharp backlash from the markets, which the Fed will be keen to avoid. The US dollar enjoyed a spectacular day on Monday against most major currencies, and the dollar index surged above resistance at 105. US 10-year yields rose as high as 3.38% earlier in the day, and the upward movement continues to support the US dollar. Risk-correlated currencies like the New Zealand dollar were pummelled, with NZD/USD falling by 1.49%. New Zealand releases first-quarter GDP later today, with the markets bracing for a modest gain of 0.6% QoQ. This follows a 3.0% gain in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on the strength of economy, as the Bank tries to steer the economy to a soft landing while raising interest rates. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6244. Below, there is support at 0.6099 There is resistance at 0.6288 and 0.6413 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. New Zealand dollar sliding, GDP next - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 29, 2022

Yen steady ahead of FOMC meeting

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.06.2022 23:17
The Japanese yen continues to drift this week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 134.30, down 0.09% on the day. All eyes on the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to raise rates by 0.50% for a second straight meeting, but there are voices calling for a massive 0.75% hike, notably, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs. It would be truly shocking if the Fed delivered a 0.75% increase, given the turbulent economic environment. The financial markets are very concerned (some are calling it “panicked”) about a recession in the US. The recent US inflation report shows inflation continues to accelerate, raising doubts that an aggressive Fed can guide the economy to a soft landing and the inversion of US Treasury yields is adding to these concerns. The US dollar enjoyed a spectacular day on Monday against most major currencies, and the dollar index surged above resistance at 105. US 10-year yields rose as high as 3.38% earlier in the day, and the upward movement continues to support the US dollar. The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting tends to be a dull affair, but with the yen sliding lower, there is talk that the Bank could intervene aggressively on the yield curve at Friday’s meeting. The BoJ has been quick to intervene to cap JGB yields at 0.25%, and with yields breaking above this line, the BoJ may decide to respond with a change in monetary policy. The yen has lost 15% of its value this year and USD/JPY pushed above the 135 line on Monday. The BoJ and Ministry of Finance have been jawboning over the exchange rate, to little avail. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.68. Above, there is resistance at 1.3638 There is support at 132.26 and 131.24 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Yen steady ahead of FOMC meeting - MarketPulseMarketPulse
AUD/USD Eyes 0.6945 on Strong Australia Retail Sales Data

Australian Dollar (AUD) Aussie stabilizes after nasty tumble. How Is AUD/USD Doing? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.06.2022 12:48
It has been a rough spell for the Australian dollar, which has steadied after a four-day slide. This downswing saw AUD/USD plunge over 300 points and break below the symbolic 70 level. Market nerves weigh on the Australian dollar Ahead of today’s FOMC rate meeting, risk sentiment is nowhere to be found. The US inflation report and expectations that the Fed will remain very aggressive have raised fears of a recession in the US. This has allowed the US dollar to surge, especially against risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. Back in early April, AUD/USD was trading close to the 0.76 line, but the Aussie has been hammered, with drops of some 400 points in April and May. With US inflation hitting a new 40-year high of 8.6%, some commentators are using the word “panic” to describe the financial markets. There are voices calling on the Fed to deliver a massive 0.75% hike at today’s meeting, though it would be a shock if the Fed did anything other than raise rates by 0.50%. Fed Chair Powell may use his press conference to hint at a 0.75% hike at a later date if inflation doesn’t start to fall soon, and such a message would likely boost the surging US dollar. With no sign of an inflation peak, it’s clear that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its foot pressed to the floor when it comes to upcoming rate hikes. This makes it likely that the Fed will deliver 50-bp hikes in June, July and September. Just a couple of weeks ago the Fed signalled it would take a break in September, but that now seems a luxury it can’t afford, given that inflation continues to accelerate. The Australian dollar didn’t get any relief from Australian releases, as NAB Business Confidence for May slowed for a second straight month, with a reading of 6 points, down from 10 previously. We’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Confidence for June later today. The May reading came in at -5.6%, and another sharp loss could see the Aussie resume its downward movement. . AUD/USD Technical There is weak support at 0.6902, followed by support at 0.6765 There is resistance at 0.6973 and 0.7110   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
"EURGBP, GBPUSD – the Bank of England is seen hiking rates at this Thursday’s meeting (...) " | Saxo Bank

GBP/USD: British Pound (GBP) Extends Losses, US Inflation Looms | InstaForex

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.06.2022 14:14
The British pound remains under pressure. GBP/USD is in negative territory today, following back-to-back losing sessions. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2439, down 0.45% on the day. Will US inflation drop? The highlight of the week will be US inflation for May. Headline inflation is expected at 8.3% (unchanged), while Core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. If inflation does indeed drop, there will likely be voices proclaiming that the long-sought inflation peak is finally here. It would, however, be premature to assume that inflation is on a downswing based on one reading alone. Still, there is plenty of anticipation around the inflation release, such that it could be a binary outcome for USD/CAD – if inflation outperforms, Fed hiking expectations will rise. If, however, inflation drops, we could see a move to sell US dollars. UK inflation expectations rise It was a light data calendar this week out of the UK. One release that was noteworthy was Inflation Expectations, released earlier today. The BoE survey found that inflation expectations for the next 12 months had risen to 4.6%, up from 4.3% n February. Inflation expectations for 2 years and 5 years were also higher, which is clearly a worrying trend. The danger of inflation expectations becoming unanchored could manifest into actual inflation continuing to accelerate. CPI hit 9% in April, up from 7.0% in March, and the BoE has stated that we could see double-digit inflation. Asides from inflation, there are plenty of worries for investors with regard to the UK economy. Prime Minister Johnson may be on his way out after a disappointing showing at a non-confidence vote and there is trouble brewing with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. This points to a bumpy road for the British pound in the short term. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2537 and 1.2614 There is weak support at 1.2413, followed by support at 1.2336 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound extends losses, US inflation looms - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Markets eye Canadian job report, US inflation

1 USD To CAD: What's Ahead USD/CAD? The US Inflation And Canadian Job Report | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.06.2022 14:08
The Canadian dollar has extended its losses today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2743, up 0.35% on the day. Thursday saw the US dollar gives its Canadian cousin a spanking, as USD/CAD jumped 1.13%, its highest daily gain this year. A rise in US Treasury yields helped boost the US dollar, as the 10-year yield remains above 3%. As well, US unemployment claims disappointed, rising to 229 thousand. This was higher than the previous release of 202 thousand and above the estimate of 210 thousand. The rise in claims was not massive, but nonetheless has fed into the market’s nervousness over the US economy, and the result was a drop in risk appetite which sent the Canadian dollar tumbling lower. It could be a busy end to the trading week, with Canada’s employment report and US inflation on today’s schedule. Canada’s job numbers for May are expected to be solid – the economy is projected to have created 30.0 thousand new jobs, up from 15.3 thousand in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.2%. All eyes on US inflation The highlight of the week will be US inflation for May. Headline inflation is expected at 8.3% (unchanged), while Core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. If inflation does indeed drop, there will likely be voices proclaiming that the long-sought inflation peak is finally here. It would, however, be premature to assume that inflation is on a downswing based on one reading alone. Still, there is plenty of anticipation around the inflation release, such that it could be a binary outcome for USD/CAD – if inflation outperforms, Fed hiking expectations will rise. If, however, inflation drops, we could see a move to sell US dollars. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2703. Above, there is resistance at 1.2812 There is support at 1.2628 and 1.2519   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Markets eye Canadian job report, US inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 29, 2022

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen (JPY) Claws Back, US Inflation Next | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.06.2022 12:38
The Japanese yen has reversed directions and is in positive territory. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 133.86, down 0.38% on the day. Despite today’s gains, the yen remains under strong pressure. The currency has mustered just one winning session in the month of June, and USD/JPY rose to 134.56 on Thursday, a new 20-year low for the yen. The symbolic 135 line looks ripe for the taking as early as next week. Japan’s Minister of Finance issues yen warning Japanese officials have chosen not to respond to the yen’s most recent descent, although Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki did issue an underhand warning earlier today about the weak yen. Suzuki said he would not comment on the question of intervention so as to avoid any impact, but added that rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate were “not desirable”. This latest verbal intervention comes after the yen hit a new 20-year low against the dollar and a 7-year low against the euro. The yen has declined a massive 14% against the dollar this year and could fall further against the euro as the ECB announced yesterday that it tightening policy. The BoJ and Ministry of Finance have tried jaw-boning in the past to support the ailing yen but without success. Investors have been on the lookout for a “trigger point” at which Tokyo would intervene, but the yen has crossed above 125 and 130 without hindrance, and it looks like the 135 line will also be breached without a response from Japanese officials. It’s been a rough week for the Japanese currency, as USD/JPY has risen 2.29%. We could see some volatility from the pair later today, with the release of the US inflation report. A weak inflation release would pare expectations of Fed hiking and would be bullish for the yen. Conversely, a stronger than expected CPI reading would likely propel the dollar higher. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.68. Above, there is resistance at 1.3638 There is support at 132.26 and 131.24   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
GBP/USD Increased, S&P 500 Went Down By Ca. 1%, Nasdaq Lost 1.33%. EUR/USD Exited Below-1.04 Levels

US CPI Is Coming, How Will It Affect (USD) US Dollar? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.06.2022 20:09
GBP/USD is drifting today, with a very light economic calendar. There are no UK releases and the only important release out of the US was unemployment claims, which rose from 202 thousand to 229 thousand (210 exp.). Investors didn’t pay much attention to the release, ahead of the US inflation report on Friday. US inflation keenly anticipated Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%, while core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. As has been the case with recent US inflation reports, the markets will be anxiously waiting for the Federal Reserve’s reaction. The Fed is in the midst of an aggressive rate-tightening campaign, and if inflation shows a drop in tomorrow’s report, I wouldn’t be surprised to see headlines trumpeting the arrival of an inflation peak, although such a sweeping conclusion after just one release is certainly premature. The US dollar has been in choppy waters for much of the week, and the huge anticipation ahead of the inflation report could shake up the currency and make for a busy end to the week. The CPI release should result in a binary outcome – if inflation outperforms, it will put pressure on the Fed to tighten even further, which is bullish for the US dollar. Conversely, a weaker than expected reading will ease pressure on the Fed and the US dollar could lose ground. The OECD had some grim news about global growth earlier this week, with a particularly pessimistic forecast for the UK. Global growth is expected to fall to 3 per cent, down from 4.5% in the December projection. The OECD said that the war in Ukraine and Covid lockdowns across China had “generated a new set of adverse shocks”. As for the UK, the OECD predicted zero growth in 2023, the worst forecast for any of the 38 OECD members. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2537. Above, there is resistance at 1.2614 There is support at 1.2413 and 1.2336 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound unchanged, US inflation ahead - MarketPulseMarketPulse
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

FX: NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Drifting

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.06.2022 15:28
NZD/USD has been on a downswing this week, falling close to 1%. The currency is almost unchanged today, ahead of the release of New Zealand Manufacturing Sales later today. US core CPI expected to fall One of this week’s highlights is the US inflation report for May, which will be released on Friday. Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%, while core CPI is forecast to fall to 5.9%, down from 6.2%. A drop in the core reading will raise speculation that we’ve hit an inflation peak, although I would caution against any sweeping conclusions based on a decline in one month. The RBNZ finds itself in the middle of its aggressive rate-tightening cycle. The Bank raised the cash rate to 2.0% in late May, up from 1.50%. Governor Orr has stated that he is looking to raise rates to 4% by mid-2023, which means that investors can expect plenty of tightening, which could mean additional 50-bps hikes. The RBNZ’s chief economist, Paul Conway, has acknowledged that a soft landing amidst aggressive rate hikes is “difficult to engineer” but said the economy was strong enough to handle a downturn due to the strong labour market. The RBNZ is carefully monitoring inflation expectations, which like CPI, are yet to show any signs of easing. Inflation is running at 6.9%, its highest level in 30 years, while unemployment is at a record low of 3.2%. As is the case with other major central banks which are tightening policy, the RBNZ will have a tough challenge in ensuring that the economy has a soft landing as higher rates result in slower economic activity. A recession is a constant worry for the central bank, which could emanate from the housing sector, as higher mortgage rates could have a crushing effect on highly indebted households. NZD/USD Technical NZD is testing resistance at 0.6453. Above, there is resistance at 0.6514 0.6399 and 0.6338 are providing support   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Rates Spark: Some two-way risk in rates

Euro unchanged ahead of ECB meeting

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.06.2022 13:27
It has been a quiet week for the euro, and that trend has continued today, as EUR/USD is unchanged at 1.0718. All eyes on ECB The ECB is poised to end its accommodative policy at today’s meeting, but there is plenty of uncertainty and anticipation ahead of the announcement. The central bank has signalled that it plans to tighten policy but has been short on details. ECB President Lagarde has stated that rates will lift off after its asset purchase programme ends. With a rate hike widely expected at the July meeting, that adds up to QE winding up at the end of June. That still leaves plenty of variables in play. Will the ECB hike by a moderate 25bp or a massive 50bp? What will be the pace of the rate-hike cycle? As for today’s meeting, a rate hike is unlikely but cannot be ruled out, with inflation continuing to accelerate. If the ECB doesn’t raise rates today and suffices with terminating QE, the driver for euro movement in today’s session will be Lagarde’s press conference. A hawkish tone could give the euro a lift, while if Lagarde sounds more dovish than the markets were expecting, the euro could lose ground. Key to the size of the rate hike in July will be today’s updated inflation and GDP forecasts. The war in Ukraine and supply bottlenecks make it likely that inflation will be revised upwards and growth downwards, raising fears of staglation. If the inflation report is worse than expected, there will be more pressure on the ECB to consider a 50bp hike in July. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0796 and 1.0871 There is weak support at 1.0711, followed by support at 1.0636 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Euro unchanged ahead of ECB meeting - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 28, 2022

Australian Dollar (AUD) Seems To Have Lost Its Momentum After RBA. What's Ahead Of AUD/USD? Will RBA Hike Rate Again? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 08.06.2022 19:02
The Australian dollar has reversed directions on Wednesday and is slightly lower. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7209, down 0.28% on the day. Aussie runs out of steam The RBA surprised the markets with a supersize rate hike of 50bp yesterday, double what most analysts had predicted. The Australian dollar responded with a swing of close to 100 points and held onto half of those gains. However, any hopes of a sustained post-RBA rally proved to be short-lived, as the Aussie has dipped lower today. The RBA left no doubt that it plans to be aggressive in its battle to curb soaring inflation, and we could see further 50bp hikes down the road if inflation remains stubbornly high. However, the central bank does run the risk of appearing to be in panic mode with such a large hike and runs the risk of losing credibility if inflation doesn’t peak soon. The RBA’s aggressive hike shows that it “means business”, but the rate statement didn’t come across as particularly hawkish. Policy makers noted that inflation was higher than expected and was projected to accelerate before declining in 2023. The statement said that the rate hike would contribute to inflation falling “over time”, which certainly doesn’t provide much insight – perhaps the RBA is playing a wait-and-see game when it comes to forecasting when inflation will peak. Yesterday’s massive hike was the RBA’s largest increase since 2000. Still, it’s worth noting that the cash rate is only at 0.85%, which means that the RBA’s rate-tightening cycle is in an early stage and has plenty more room to run. Unless inflation dips dramatically, we can expect the RBA to tighten by around another 100 points by year’s end and continue into 2023. This aggressive tightening scheme will help maintain the US/Australia rate differential, with the Fed also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing support at 0.7211, followed by support at 0.7138 There is resistance at 0.7280 and 0.7353 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. https://www.marketpulse.com/20220608/australian-dollar-dips-as-rate-rally-fizzles/
FX: EUR/USD analysis and forecast for June 30, 2022

Euro edges higher as markets eye ECB

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 08.06.2022 15:28
The euro is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0727, up 0.20% on the day. ECB to terminate QE, start rate-hike cycle It has been a calm week for the euro thus far, but that could change on Thursday, as the ECB holds a key policy meeting. It is widely expected that the Lagarde & Co. will pivot to a tightening bias, which in itself is a dramatic development as the ECB has maintained an accommodative monetary stance for years. The ECB has been signalling a more hawkish stance for months, as policy makers have scrambled to battle surging inflation in the eurozone, which has hit 8.1% in May. At tomorrow’s meeting, ECB President Lagarde is expected to take the formal step of announcing that the QE programme will wind up early in Q3, with the interest rate liftoff to continue in July. The markets will be looking for guidance with regard to the size of upcoming rate hikes. Any hints of a supersize 50bp increase would be bullish for the euro. The ECB will also release updated inflation and GDP forecasts, with inflation likely to be revised upwards and GDP downwards. This would indicate that the risk for eurozone growth remains tilted to the downside, which means the euro will have a tough time gaining on the dollar in the short to medium term. The eurozone released employment and GDP data for Q1 earlier in the day, and the numbers were nothing to write home about. Employment and GDP both rose by 0.6%. Consumers are holding their purse strings tight, as household final consumption expenditure in Q1 came in at -0.7%, weaker than the -0.3% reading in Q4 2021. Weak consumer demand hurt GDP and with the ECB poised to hike rates, consumer spending could continue to decline which would be bad news for the fragile eurozone economy. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0711. Above, there is resistance at 1.0796 There is support at 1.0636 and 1.0551 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Reaffirms Policy, Japanese Yen (JPY) At 136 | Oanda

The Japanese yen is slip slidin’ away | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 08.06.2022 14:14
Yen descent continues The Japanese yen can’t seem to buy a break. USD/JPY has jumped 0.84% today and has surged 2.22% this week. The pair is currently trading at 133.76, yet another 20-year high. The yen has mustered just one winning session in the past nine, but there hasn’t been any response from Japanese officials, either at the Bank of Japan or at the Ministry of Finance (MOF). What is notable about today’s losses is that US Treasury yields are lower and yet USD/JPY has still rallied. That could rattle Tokyo and result in some comments about officials expressing concern about the exchange rate, the type of empty rhetoric which we have seen before. Earlier in the week, BoJ Governor Kuroda said that monetary tightening was not suitable and that the BoJ intended to maintain its ultra-loose policy. Japan’s economy remains fragile, and with inflation rising but still below the Bank’s inflation target of 2%, Kuroda can afford to continue this policy. The cost has been a rapidly descending yen, but Kuroda has stated on more than one occasion that a weak yen is mostly positive for the economy. As the yen continues to fall, speculators are likely to join the party and bet against the yen until the BoJ or MOF intervene to bolster the currency, but so far there is no sign of that happening. Unless US yields make a sharp U-turn lower, the risk of the Japanese yen remains tilted downwards. The yen is also under strong pressure from the euro. EUR/JPY has fallen for 10 consecutive trading sessions and has touched a seven-year high. The ECB is expected to end its QE programme this month and embark on a rate-hike cycle in July. This would leave the Bank of Japan as the only major central bank that has not joined the tightening bandwagon. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.68. Above, there is resistance at 1.3638 There is support at 132.26 and 131.24 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. The Japanese yen is slip slidin' away - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 23, 2022

USD/CAD: Ivey PMI And BoC Are Boosting Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 07.06.2022 19:17
The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2545, down 0.26% on the day. The Canadian dollar received a boost as Ivey PMI for May climbed to 72.0, up sharply from 64.3 in April. The PMI hit a record high of 74.2 in March. BoC hiking rates, cutting assets The Bank of Canada is matching the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle, after back-to-back 50bp rate hikes for the first time since 2000. Inflation accelerated to 6.8% in April and remains Public Enemy number one. Although we’re not yet seeing an ‘inflation peak’, the results from the sharp rise in interest rates can be seen in the housing market, as home sales fell 12.6% MoM in April. As is the case with other major central banks, the BoC is concerned about inflation expectations becoming unanchored, which makes it critical that the BoC maintains credibility that it will bring inflation down. Aside from hiking interest rates, the BoC commenced quantitative tightening (QT) in April, whereby government bonds are no longer being replaced once they mature. The BoC is committed to QT becoming an important plank in its tightening programme, with a plan to slice its Canadian government bonds total from about CAD 440 billion to CAD 280 billion by the end of 2023. The BoC’s hawkish monetary policy is helping the Canadian dollar keep pace with its US cousin, at a time when the Fed is also tightening aggressively and US Treasury yields are moving higher. Yields on 5, 10 and 30-years are currently above the 3 per cent level. The BoC will need to continue to keep pace with the Fed; otherwise, the US/Canada rate differential will widen and send the Canadian dollar lower. . USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.2608 and 1.2548 USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2664. Above, there is resistance at 1.2775 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 29, 2022

What. A. Plunge! Japanese Yen (JPY) Has Reached 20-Year Low! Let's Have A Look At USD/JPY Chart

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 07.06.2022 18:55
Dollar continues to pummel yen The Japanese yen continues to lose ground. USD/JPY touched the 133 line earlier in the day, as the yen hit a 20-year low. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.55, up 0.50% on the day. The dollar index rose as much as 0.39% today and hit its highest level since May 23rd, before giving up these gains. The sharp descent of the yen can be attributed to two factors. First, US Treasury yields are moving higher, and on Tuesday, the 5, 10 and 30-year yields are now above the 3 per cent level. The upward move in US yields could be related to this week’s USD 96 billion in government bond sales in the 3, 10 and 30-year tenors. The dollar has momentum and if Treasury yields remain above 3% and Friday’s US CPI print is high, USD/JPY should respond with further gains. The second factor weighing on the yen is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-accommodative policy. BoJ Governor Kuroda said on Monday that monetary tightening was “not suitable and that the central bank would maintain its ultra-loose policy until the Bank achieved its inflation target of 2.0%. The BoJ has been quick to intervene to defend its yield curve, purchasing JGBs in order to cap yields on 10-year bonds at 0.25%. There has been speculation that the BoJ has a ‘line in the sand’ at which it would intervene to prop up the yen, but the yen continues to fall and touched 133 today with no signs that the BoJ is planning to step in. It should be remembered that Kuroda has stated on more than one occasion that a weak yen is mostly positive for the economy. In addition, surging oil prices are pressuring the yen, as crude oil is priced in US dollars. With US rates moving higher and the BoJ keeping a cap on JGB yields, the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen, and the risk to the yen remains tilted to the downside. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.3226. Above, there is resistance at 1.3368 There is support at 131.24 and 129.56   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Japanese yen falls to 20-year low - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

Australian dollar swings after RBA shocker | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 07.06.2022 18:27
The Australian dollar showed some bounce on Tuesday, courtesy of the RBA rate decision. AUD/USD produced a flash spike of 60 points after the move and touched a daily high of 0.7248, but was unable to consolidate.  In the European session, the Aussie is trading at 0.7180, unchanged on the day. RBA surprises with 50bp hike The RBA had a huge surprise up its sleeve, as it delivered a 50bp rate hike, bringing the cash rate to 0.85%. The meeting was live, with the markets had expected a modest 25bp rise, although there were some forecasts of a 40bp increase as well. The super-size 50bp move indicates that the RBA is determined to curb inflation with an aggressive rate-tightening cycle. At the same time, the RBA runs the risk of appearing to be in panic mode with such a large hike and runs the risk of losing credibility if inflation doesn’t start to ease soon. The RBA’s rate statement was not particularly hawkish, considering the massive rate hike. That could explain why the Australian dollar was not able to capitalize on the rate hike, as the spike quickly fizzled. The statement noted that inflation had accelerated more than anticipated and was expected to increase further before declining next year. The Bank expressed confidence that today’s rate hike would contribute to inflation falling “over time”. The statement also noted that the economy was resilient and the labour market remains strong. The US dollar received a boost from US Treasury yields, as the 5, 10 and 30-year yields are all above the 3 per cent level. The upward move in US yields could be related to this week’s USD 96 billion in government bond sales in the 3, 10 and 30-year tenors. Will yields remain above 3% during the week? If so, the dollar could show some strong movement after the CPI release on Friday. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.7211 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 0.7280 0.7158 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.7069   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
AUD/USD Eyes 0.6945 on Strong Australia Retail Sales Data

AUD/USD: Maybe Australian Dollar (Like On A Rollercoaster) Has Held Its Breath, But It Surely Wants To Go Up Rising Against US Dollar... | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.06.2022 23:43
The Australian dollar went on a wild ride late last week. AUD/USD jumped 1.27% on Thursday, only to cough up most of these gains on Friday.  The Aussie is showing little movement today, as the markets eye the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on Tuesday. Aussie in calm waters ahead of RBA - MarketPulseMarketPulse RBA poised for back-to-back rate hikes The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates back-to-back, for the first time since 2013. It’s not clear what the size of the hike will be, with the most likely scenario being a 40-bps increase, which would raise the cash rate to 0.75%. If the RBA opts for a modest 25-bps hike, investors could be disappointed and the Australian dollar could lose ground. The RBA started its rate-hike cycle last month and is expected to raise rates to 3% or even higher, which means that the Bank will be raising rates in the second half of the year and into 2023. The aggressive rate hiking by the RBA will help the Australian dollar keep pace with the US dollar in terms of the US/Australia rate differential. US yields climbed on Friday after the May nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected. The economy added 390 thousand jobs, above the forecast of 325 thousand and indicating that the labour market remains robust. The report has solidified expectations that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes at the June and July meetings. Federal Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will take a pause from rate hikes in September, but that view is by no means unanimous. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Brainard said the Fed should not take a break from rate hikes in September, and that the Fed might continue with 50-bps hikes if inflation doesn’t peak. What makes Brainard’s comments noteworthy is that she is considered a leading dove on the Fed, which is indicative of the hawkish pivot the Fed has taken as inflation continues to accelerate. Echoing Brainard, Fed member Mester said that the Fed had to act aggressively to contain inflation and that could mean an increase at the September meeting. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7207. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Week Ahead – Rate hikes keep coming

(JPY) Japenese Yen Hasn't Shocked Markets (Yet?), What Does It Mean For USD/JPY? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.06.2022 23:37
The Japanese yen has started the week quietly. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.63, up 0.15% on the day. Yen steadies after slide - MarketPulseMarketPulse It was a week to forget for the yen, as USD/JPY surged 2.91%, the biggest weekly gain this year. The driver of the yen’s downswing was primarily the rise in US bond yields, which have started the week with gains and are closing in on the 3% level. US yields climbed on Friday after the May nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected. The economy added 390 thousand jobs, above the forecast of 325 thousand and indicating that the labour market remains robust. The report has solidified expectations that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes at the June and July meetings. Ahead of the NFP release, Fed members were sending out hawkish messages to the markets. On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Brainard said the Fed should not take a break from rate hikes in September, and that the Fed might continue with 50-bps hikes if inflation doesn’t peak. What makes Brainard’s comments noteworthy is that she is considered a leading dove on the Fed, which is indicative of the hawkish pivot the Fed has taken as inflation continues to accelerate. Echoing Brainard, Fed member Mester said that the Fed had to act aggressively to contain inflation and that could mean an increase in September.   BoJ’s Kuroda dismisses tightening With the Japanese yen declining in health and trading above 130 to the dollar, there has been talk that the BoJ might intervene in order to prop up the currency. BoJ Governor Kuroda poured cold water on any such expectations on Monday, stating that monetary tightening was not “suitable”. Kuroda said that the economy was still recovering from Covid and high commodity prices were adding pressure on the economy. He added that the BoJ would adhere to its ultra-loose policy until the Bank achieved its inflation target of 2%. With Kuroda doubling down on the Bank’s accommodative policy, the risk for the yen is clearly tilted to the downside, barring a decline in US Treasury yields. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY faces resistance at 1.3124 and 1.3226 There is support at 129.56 and 128.14 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
What Today's NFP Means For Markets? High Value May Boost USD, But Weaken Gold Price. Low NFP May Help Stockmarket | Oanda

What Today's NFP Means For Markets? High Value May Boost USD, But Weaken Gold Price. Low NFP May Help Stockmarket | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 03.06.2022 10:17
OPEC+ agrees to increase output The most anticipated OPEC+ meeting of the year turned out to be a damp squib in the end. OPEC+ agreed to increase output in July and August to 648,000 bpd from the previously agreed 432,000 bpd, with the increased allocation spread across all its members, including, you guessed it, Russia. Given most of OPEC can’t even meet their present targets, with only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and possibly Iraq, having any sort of spare capacity, and with Russia under sanctions, the entire exercise was nothing more than window dressing. It is clear which side OPEC’s bread is buttered on and you’d have to say Vladimir Putin is having a good week by his lowly standards. Progress in Eastern Ukraine, OPEC clearly not wanting to upset him, and now a Russian restriction on noble gas exports. (these are inert gases used in the production of semiconductors amongst other things) Ukraine previously produced 30% of the world’s noble gases by the way. He must be loving it when a plan comes together. The minuscule increase in production was a sop to US President Biden but won’t change a thing in the supply/demand equation on international markets. President Biden is going to have to show up with a lot more goodies on the table during his upcoming visit to the Middle East to change that dynamic. Saber rattling against China, and a vacuous trade agreement that provided no access to US markets, as per his recent trip to Asia, just isn’t going to cut it. To paraphrase Jerry Maguire, if you want to cut Russian and Chinese influence everywhere Joe, show me the money. Markets clearly felt the same as oil, which had plummeted pre-meeting on hopes of a much larger increase in production, reversed all their losses. Further indignity was served up by official US Crude Inventories, which plummeted by just over 5 million barrels overnight. That saw both Brent crude and WTI finish a huge turnaround, closing around 2.0% higher on the day. With Brent crude and WTI within shouting distance of USD 120.00 a barrel, that made the overnight rally by US equities even stranger things. Wall Street booked impressive gains overnight and I can only put it down to a very weak ADP Employment release, only gaining 128,000 jobs, while April Building Permits fell by 0.60% and April Factory Orders MoM for April only rose by 0.30%. It was the ADP Employment data that did though, even though it is an appalling indicator for the US Non-Farm Payrolls. I note the JOLTs data this week still showed two jobs for every unemployed American, something Lael Brainard also noted overnight. Still, why let reality get in the way of a good story? A slowing US economy equals less Fed tightening equals lower terminal interest rates equals buy everything. The rally by Wall Street sparked a correlated risk-on rally across the rest of the markets. US yields edged lower, the US dollar got thumped, with risk-sentiment fashionistas the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar booking impressive gains. Even Bitcoin and gold rallied as they are inflation hedges, I mean deflation hedges, I mean stagflation hedges; oh, never mind. We can take two things out of the overnight price actions. Equity markets, having been programmed to buy any dip over the last two decades thanks to the asset price backstop of global monetary policy, are looking for even the most tenuous reasoning to price the end of the bear market. Secondly, the trajectory of US interest rates is the one ring to rule them all with global markets and asset classes everywhere. Tonight’s US Non-Farm Payroll data is expected to ease to 325,000 jobs added. A large deviation above or below that number should produce a very binary outcome for the FOMO gnomes of the stock market, and by default, be reflected in other asset classes. A high number equals Fed tightening with lots of 0.50% increases, remains on track, equals sell equities, sell currencies, buy US dollar, sell bonds, sell gold. A low number equals less Fed tightening, buy equities, buy currencies, especially EUR, AUD, NZD, and EM, buy bonds, buy gold, and because it’s the weekend, let’s buy some crypto as well. Volatility is the winner either way. Moving out of the tail-chasing Lala land we call the US financial markets and into the real world, we see a raft of Services PMIs for May also released today. Asian releases have been a mixed bag. Australian Services PMI caught a cost-of-living sniffle as it fell to 53.2 from 56.1 previously. In contrast, Japan’s Jibun PMI rose from 51.7 to 52.6 this morning as the reopening boom continues there. European Services PMIs have obvious downside risks as will India’s at 1300 SGT today as rising living costs bite. None of that should influence the Reserve Banks of Australia and India next week, which will both hike policy rates again. Indonesia’s CPI yesterday was benign and will likely stay the Bank Indonesia’s hands this month. We can pencil in another rate hike from the Bank of Korea in July for sure after South Korean inflation for May YoY blew through the topside, rising by 5.40%. Holidays will impact trading volumes and liquidity internationally today. Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taipei are all dragon boating. Thailand celebrates their Queen’s birthday. Meanwhile, the UK will be closed again for neighbourhood street parties to celebrate the Queen’s platinum jubilee. Congratulations Your Majesty. On Monday, most of Europe is closed for Whit Monday, with holidays also in New Zealand, South Korea, and Malaysia. Finally, I know markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent, but did I mention that oil is approaching USD 120.00 a barrel, and Russia now controls large swaths of the global wheat and plant oil supply, and noble gases? Just saying…. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. https://www.marketpulse.com/20220603/dude-wheres-my-oil/
Eurozone: A step in the right direction for peripheral bonds

(EUR/USD): European Manufacturing PMIs' Impact On Euro To US Dollar | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 02.06.2022 16:11
The euro has posted gains and pushed above the 1.07 line on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0702, up 0.48% on the day. Eurozone grapples with high inflation, low growth German and European Manufacturing PMIs were within expectations, pointing to continued expansion. This has boosted the euro, which had lost over 1% over the two previous days. Still, risk remains tilted to the downside for the euro, as soft GDP and high inflation numbers have clouded the outlook for the bloc. Quarterly GDP releases for Q1 have been weak, with Germany at 0.2%, France at -0.2% and Italy at 0.1%. These numbers point to sluggish economic growth, at a time when inflation continues to accelerate, to the point that the dovish ECB has hastily announced that it will raise embark on a rate-hike cycle, starting in July. On the inflation front, eurozone rose to 8.1% in May, setting a new record high for a seventh straight month. This was higher than the April record high of 7.4% and above the forecast of 7.8%. The reading comes on the heels of Germany’s May CPI, which surged to 8.7%. This was sharply higher from 7.8% in April and above the forecast of 8.0%. France and Spain also reported an acceleration in inflation. High inflation and weak growth are the recipe for stagflation, a scenario which is no doubt keeping ECB policymakers up at night. The ‘usual suspects’ driving inflation are at play, with the war in Ukraine and upward pressures on energy and food prices showing no signs of easing anytime soon. As inflation is broad-based, there are forecasts that inflation will continue to accelerate. The EU’s plan to block 90% of Russian oil imports has sent oil prices even higher, which will exacerbate inflationary pressures in the eurozone. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0686. Above, there is major resistance at 1.0813 There is support at 1.0608 and 1.0481 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

(AUD/USD): Strong Economic Data Has Helped (AUD) Australian Dollar Battling With (USD) US Dollar | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 02.06.2022 15:36
The Australian dollar is showing some jump. AUD/USD has punched above the 0.72 level today and has posted gains of 0.59%, as it trades close to 1-month highs. Australian releases were positive, giving the Aussie a strong boost. The trade surplus widened to AUD 10.49 billion in April, up from 9.31 billion in March (AUD 9.300 billion exp.). Exports were up 1.0% and commodity prices remained strong, with a gain of 30.4%. Retail sales dipped to 0.9%, but this matched the forecast. Australian dollar higher on solid data - MarketPulseMarketPulse GDP slows but better than expected Australia’s Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8% QoQ, after a massive 3.6% QoQ gain in Q4 of 2021. Investors were not expecting a Q4 repeat, and the first quarter reading actually outperformed, beating the estimate of 0.5%. The whipsaw movement in GDP makes it difficult to predict the underlying strength of the economy. For the RBA, the fact that the economy is still growing means that it can continue with its rate-tightening plans. Monetary policy has not focused all that much on GDP, with the RBA concentrating on the labour market, wage growth and inflation. The RBA holds its meeting next week, and is likely to tighten by another 25-bps, which would bring the cash rate to a (still low) 0.60%. The markets are expecting the cash rate to rise as high as 3.95%, which means that the RBA plans to continue tightening into 2023. Recent US numbers have been mostly positive, which points to a strong US economy. The week wraps up with the US nonfarm payroll release on Friday. The markets are braced for a slowdown, as the April forecast stands at 325 thousand, after a March gain of 428 thousand. With the markets keeping a close eye on surging energy and food prices and the war in Ukraine, NFP isn’t the only game in town. Still, it is one of the most important economic releases and should be treated as a market-mover. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7207. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/CHF on June 30

Swiss franc rises on higher inflation | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 02.06.2022 14:50
The Swiss franc is slightly higher on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.9596, down 0.39% on the day. Those of us who think “staid and steady” when the Swiss franc comes to mind will be forgiven for not recognizing the currency lately. The Swissie took riders on a roller-coaster in the month of May, as USD/CHF rose 300 points and broke above parity for the first time since December 2019. The upswing didn’t last, as the pair reversed directions and dropped by some 400 points. The Swiss franc has stabilized over the past week after the May volatility. It is noteworthy that the EUR/CHF is trading at a one-month low. Swiss franc rises on higher inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse Swiss inflation accelerates Swiss inflation is moving upwards and hit a 14-year high in May. CPI rose 0.7% MoM, up from 0.4% in April (0.3% exp). On an annualized basis, CPI  climbed 2.9%, up from 2.5% in April (2.6% exp.). Inflation remains much lower than the red-hot numbers we’re seeing in the eurozone or the UK, but Switzerland traditionally has enjoyed very low inflation, and higher prices are putting pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to address rising inflationary pressures. The SNB has maintained an accommodative policy, which includes a benchmark rate of -0.75%, by far the lowest of any major bank. So far, the Bank is not showing any signs of tightening policy by raising rates, although that could change if the Swiss currency continues to appreciate. Recent US data has been firm, with the notable exception of the housing sector. We’ll get a look at US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The markets are braced for a slowdown, as the April forecast stands at 325 thousand, after a March gain of 428 thousand. It wasn’t so long ago that the NFP release was the highlight of the week, but with inflation, the Ukraine war and the OPEC+ meeting, NFP will be sharing the spotlight. Still, it should be considered a market-mover for the US dollar. . USD/CHF Technical There is resistance at 0.9624 and 0.9704 USD/CHF has support at 0.9497 and 0.9417 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/JPY – Rally running on fumes?

Dollar pushes wobbly yen to 130 | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.06.2022 22:09
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground, as USD/JPY has punched above the symbolic 130 line. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.01 up 1.02% on the day. The US dollar is having its way with the yen this week as USD/JPY has surged 2.23%. The driver behind the yen’s plunge is an upswing in US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose from 2.84% to 2.93% today, and as we have often seen, the yen finds itself at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential and is sharply lower today. BoJ stays the course despite higher inflation Most of the major central banks have embarked on rate-hike cycles in order to contain spiralling inflation, with the noticeable exception of the Bank of Japan. The BoJ has continued its ultra-accommodative policy, which it insists is needed to boost the fragile economy. BoJ Governor Kuroda has defended keeping interest rates low, saying that wages and service price inflation have remained modest. The BoJ continues to view cost-push inflation as transient and is not all that concerned with inflationary pressures, which are much lower than we are seeing in the other major economies. In the US, the Fed commenced quantitative tightening this week and the Fed continues to send out hawkish messages. Fed Governor Christopher Waller fired the latest hawkish salvo from the US central bank, saying he supported more rate hikes, even above the “neutral level”, which is not supportive or restrictive for growth. The Fed estimates the neutral level to be around 2.5%, which leaves plenty of room for further hikes until the neutral level is approached. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes in June and July, followed by a pause in September. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has broken past resistance at 1.2890 and 1.2973. The next resistance line is at 131.24 There is support at 128.01 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX: EUR/USD analysis and forecast for June 30, 2022

How's Bank's Of Canada Rate Hike Going To Influence USD/CAD (US Dollar To Canadian Dollar) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.06.2022 22:08
The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in Wednesday trading. The loonie has reeled off five consecutive winning sessions and is trading at a 5-week high. BoC delivers a 50-bps hike As expected, the BoC raised the benchmark rate 50-bps at today’s meeting, bringing the rate to 1.5%. This marked a second straight 50-bps hike, as the BoC continues to aggressively tighten policy in order to curb soaring inflation. CPI has ballooned to 6.8%, its highest level in 30 years. The Bank of Canada has targeted inflation with front-loading force, with markets expecting one more 50-bps salvo before the BoC slows down the pace of tightening. The plan is to continue to raise rates three or four times in 25-bps increments, which would bring rates to around 3 per cent, which is considered the neutral rate. BoC hikes by 0.50%, Canadian dollar yawns - MarketPulseMarketPulse The kicker in this carefully laid-out plan is, of course, how inflation will behave. If inflation doesn’t begin to ease and there is no sign of an inflation peak, the Bank may have to hold the course with further 50-bps moves. There is also the spectre of inflation actually getting worse, which would lead to calls to resort to the heavy ammunition, in the form of a massive 75-bps increase. The BoC is well aware that its credibility is on the line in its titanic battle with inflation. If the Bank is viewed as not doing enough, inflation expectations could become unanchored and move higher, which is a nightmarish scenario for BoC policy makers. Canada’s GDP climbed in March by 0.7% MoM, higher than expectations. This marked a 10th straight monthly expansion. However, on an annualized basis, first-quarter growth fell to 3.1%, down sharply from 6.6% in Q4 and below the forecast of 5.4%. Exports were down, as the chilly global economic picture has hurt demand for Canadian exports. USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.2608 and 1.2548 USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2664. Above, there is resistance at 1.2775     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Is It A Turning Point For Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD)!? Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Decreased! | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.06.2022 15:27
The Australian dollar is in calm waters this week, as AUD/USD trades quietly just below the 0.73 level. GDP slows to 0.8% Australia’s Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8% QoQ, after a massive 3.6% QoQ gain in Q4 of 2021. Investors were braced for a softer release after the impressive Q4 surge, and the Q1 reading actually outperformed, beating the estimate of 0.5%. This has resulted in a muted response to GDP, with the Aussie edging slightly higher. The whipsaw movement in GDP makes it difficult to predict the underlying strength of the economy. As far as the RBA is concerned, the respectable growth in Q1, which translates into 3.2% annualized growth, doesn’t interfere with its rate-tightening plans. Monetary policy has not focused all that much on GDP, with the RBA concentrating on the labour market, wage growth and inflation. The RBA holds its meeting next week, and is likely to tighten by another 25-bps, which would bring the cash rate to a (still low) 0.60%. Australia’s current account contracted to AUD 7.5 billion in the first quarter, down sharply from AUD 13.2 billion in Q4 of 2021. The decline was a strong increase in imports, which outstripped exports. This is consistent with strong retail sales, as consumers continue to spend in the follow-up to the removal of Covid restrictions. In the US, the Fed commenced quantitative tightening this week and the Fed continues to send out hawkish messages. Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged the Fed to continue its rate hikes and said that he supported raising rates above the “neutral level”, which is not supportive or restrictive for growth. The Fed estimates the neutral level around 2.5%, which leaves plenty of room for further hikes. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes in June and July, followed by a pause in September. AUD/USD Technical 0.7207 is under pressure in resistance. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Eurozone: A step in the right direction for peripheral bonds

Fluctuating Forex Pairs? Is Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Going To Be One Of Them? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 31.05.2022 22:58
The euro is seeing red on Tuesday and dropped below the 1.07 line earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, down 0.67% on the day. EU to block most Russian oil  The EU announced on Tuesday that it had reached an agreement to ban most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. The dramatic move is a compromise in which the ban will apply to oil that arrives by sea, with an exemption for land (pipeline) oil imports. This will allow Hungary and other countries to continue to receive Russian oil. With Germany and Poland also ending pipeline imports, some 90% of Russian oil exported to Europe will be blocked. The move has sent crude oil prices higher and sent the euro sharply lower, as the new sanctions are sure to take a toll on the eurozone economy. It’s up, up, up, for Eurozone inflation. In May, CPI hit 8.1%, setting a new record high for a seventh straight month. This was higher than the April record high of 7.4% and above the forecast of 7.8%. The reading comes on the heels of Germany’s May CPI, which surged to 8.7%. This was sharply higher from 7.8% in April and above the forecast of 8.0%. France and Spain also reported an acceleration in inflation. The ‘usual suspects’ driving inflation are at play, with the war in Ukraine and upward pressures on energy and food prices showing no signs of easing anytime soon. As inflation is broad-based, there are forecasts that Germany’s inflation rate could top 10%. The EU’s plan to block most Russian oil imports has sent oil prices even higher, which will only exacerbate inflationary pressures in the eurozone. . EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0736 and 1.0865 EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0648. The next support line is at 1.0519 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX: USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes GDP. How Is US Dollar Doing?

USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar Has Been Doing Really Well, But The Fuel Seems To Ran Out, Now It's Time For BoC To Act | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 31.05.2022 22:50
After a 3-day rally, the Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and edged lower. Canada releases GDP for March later in the day. Canada’s GDP climbed in February by 1.1% MoM, the highest monthly growth rate since March 2021. The March reading is expected to fall to 0.5%. This would mark a 10th straight monthly expansion. On an annualized basis, GDP is forecast to come in at 5.4%, down from 6.7% prior. Canada has been easing Covid restrictions, which has boosted the services sector, and manufacturing and construction are also accelerating. Unless the GDP drastically underperforms, I don’t anticipate any pressure on the Canadian dollar today. BoC set to hike by 50-bps The focus on GDP won’t be lengthy, as attention will shift to the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday. The BoC is widely expected to raise the benchmark rate by 50-bps, which would move the rate to 1.5%. This would be a second straight 50-bps hike, as the BoC has signalled that it will aggressively tighten policy in order to curb soaring inflation. CPI has ballooned to 6.8%, its highest level in 30 years, and if inflation continues to accelerate, a massive 75-bps increase cannot be ruled out. The BoC is clearly feeling the pressure as inflation is yet to ease, and could continue delivering 50-bps salvos. The neutral range for interest rates is around 3 per cent, and the big question is will we see inflation peak before rates are that high, or will the Bank have to raise rates above the neutral range in order to wrestle down inflation, which would take a toll on economic growth. In the meantime, it’s clear that interest rates will continue to rise at the same time that the Federal Reserve is also raising rates. That means the Canadian dollar should not lose ground due to Fed tightening. USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.2608 and 1.2548 USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2664. Above, there is resistance at 1.2775 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

New Zealand Dollar: Although NZD/USD May Lost Its Momentum As Business Confidence Has Dropped, Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) Is Expected To Act | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 31.05.2022 22:40
The New Zealand dollar rally has fizzled out on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6517, down 0.63% on the day. Business Confidence slides New Zealand’s business sector remains deeply pessimistic about the economy. ANZ Business Confidence has been mired in negative territory for close to a year and the May reading fell to -55.6, down sharply from -42.0 in April. This means that more than half of New Zealand businesses expect economic conditions to worsen during the next 12 months. There weren’t any surprises in the ANZ survey, with businesses noting that their two biggest problems are inflation and cost pressures. Inflation continues to be broad-based, and inflation expectations remain intense. One-year inflation expectations rose to 6.2%, much higher than the RBNZ’s inflation target of 1%-3%. The RBNZ is very concerned about inflation expectations, which can manifest into actual inflation. Governor Orr said last week that it was crucial that inflation expectations remain “anchored” and that a situation where higher inflation expectations become persistent had to be avoided “at all costs”. The RBNZ finds itself in the middle of its aggressive rate-tightening cycle. The Bank raised the cash rate to 2.0% last week, up from 1.50%. Governor Orr has stated that he is looking to raise rates to 4% by mid-2023, which means that investors can expect plenty of tightening, which could mean additional 50-bps hikes. The RBNZ’s chief economist, Paul Conway, has acknowledged that a soft landing amidst aggressive rate hikes is “difficult to engineer” but said the economy was strong enough to handle a downturn due to the strong labour market. Conway added that 75-bps hikes were not being considered by the central bank. NZD/USD Technical 0.6492 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6435 There is resistance at 0.6593 and 0.6650   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
New Zealand dollar near 2-year low - 30/06/22

NZD/USD - No Time To Waste! If US Dollar (USD) Weakens, Forex Market Reacts So Does New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Which Has Gone Up! | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 30.05.2022 15:59
The New Zealand dollar continues to take advantage of US dollar weakness. NZD/USD posted sharp gains last week, climbing 2.01%. Will Business Confidence improve? The week kicks off with ANZ Business Confidence, which has been in deep-freeze for months. The indicator was almost unchanged at -42.0 in April, which means that close to half of New Zealand businesses expect economic conditions to worsen during the next 12 months. The government has eased Covid restrictions, which is good news for the business sector, in particular for services such as hospitality and recreation. The upcoming survey is likely to show that businesses continue to struggle with two main issues – surging inflation and shortages of materials and workers. Businesses have seen their operating costs, including wages, accelerate rapidly and this is forcing them to pass on higher costs. Inflation has hit 30-year highs and no ‘inflation peak’ appears in sight, despite aggressive rate hikes from the RBNZ. Perhaps as important, business expect CPI to remain high. Two-year expectations have risen to 3.29% and five-year expectations have risen to 2.42%, well above the RBNZ’s inflation target of 1%-3%. The RBNZ has repeatedly said that its hawkish policy is aimed at curbing both inflation and inflation expectations. Governor Orr said last week that it was crucial that inflation expectations remain “anchored” and that a situation where higher inflation expectations become persistent had to be avoided “at all costs”. Orr added that he expects the cash rate, which is currently at 2%, to rise to 4% in mid-2023. This means that the RBNZ will continue be aggressive and we can expect further 50-bps rate hikes, if the central bank feels that the economy is strong enough for aggressive rate therapy. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6475. Above, there is resistance at 0.6540 There is support at 0.6352 and 0.6287 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

AUD hits 3-week high, retail sales climb | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.05.2022 15:15
The Australian dollar is showing strong gains today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7145, up 0.66% on the day. Australia released retail sales earlier today, salvaging what had been a lacklustre week for Australian releases. April retail sales were up 0.9%, just shy of the 1.0% forecast. This marked a fourth straight month of sales gains, which points to resilient consumer spending in the face of rising inflation, which hit 5.1% in the first quarter. Many businesses are planning to raise prices, raising the concern that inflation is broadly based across the economy. This has raised concerns that consumer spending, although currently on an upswing, will not be sustainable if inflation doesn’t start to ease soon. As well, the RBA, which has embarked a rate-tightening cycle, will have a difficult task reducing inflation and inflation expectations if inflationary pressures are broad-based. The US economy contracted more than expected in Q1, although market reaction was muted. Second-estimate GDP came in at -1.5% QoQ, shy of the estimate of -1.3% and revised downwards from the initial estimate of -1.4%. Growth in Q1 was hampered by a surge in Omicron as well as the Ukraine war. Investors took the news in stride, and appear to be counting on a rebound in the second quarter. Still, US growth is likely to be moderate and much lower than the sharp expansion we saw after the US economy reopened. One bright spot was solid consumer spending, which remains strong in the face of spiralling inflation. Consumer spending, as gauged by PCE expenditures, rose 3.1% in Q1, up from 2.7% prior. The markets are keeping a close eye on Personal Spending and Personal Income, which will be released later today. As well the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge,  will be released later today. . AUD/USD Technical 0.7118 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7196 There is support at 0.6996 and 0.6918 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 23, 2022

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Higher On Retail Sales | USD/CAD Performance | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.05.2022 14:47
The Canadian dollar hasn’t made any spectacular daily gains since May 13th, when it shot up 1.1%. The currency has, however, made slow but steady progress against its US cousin. Earlier today, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.2731, its lowest level in three weeks. Canada retail sales jump in Q1 Canada’s retail sales for March helped the Canadian dollar rally on Thursday. The headline figure was virtually unchanged, but core retail sales rose 1.5%. According to StatsCan, retail sales jumped 3.0% in Q1, its highest level since Q3 2020. Consumers continue to spend despite red-hot inflation, but if consumers decide to tighten the purse strings, the economy would likely take a hit and drag the Canadian dollar lower. The US dollar finds itself under pressure as risk appetite has rebounded. Investors were pleased with the FOMC minutes, as the Fed signalled that it planned to press ahead with 50-bps rate increases in June and July, which soothed concerns about a possible massive 75-bps hike. This gave the equity markets a boost and sent the greenback lower. The US economy may not be in a recession, but negative growth in the first quarter is certainly a concern. Second-estimate GDP came in at -1.5% QoQ, shy of the estimate of -1.3% and revised downwards from the initial estimate of -1.4%. Growth in Q1 was hampered by a surge in Omicron as well as the Ukraine war. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM One bright spot was solid consumer spending, which remains strong in the face of spiralling inflation. Consumer spending, as gauged by PCE expenditures, rose 3.1% in Q1, up from 2.7% prior. The markets are keeping a close eye on Personal Spending and Personal Income, which will be released later today. The economy is expected to rebound in Q2, but could be much lower than the rosy GDP numbers we saw after the US economy reopened. USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2750. Below, there is support at 1.2661 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
The Commodities Feed: Gasoline stocks edge higher | ING Economics

Will US Dollar To Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Plunge? Canadian dollar (CAD) eyes retail sales | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 26.05.2022 15:48
The Canadian dollar is drifting just above the 1.28 line, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of Canada’s retail sales for March. The headline figure is expected to jump to 1.4% MoM, after a negligible gain of 0.1% in April. Core retail sales is projected to come in at 2.0%, little changed from the previous reading of 2.1%. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely boost the Canadian dollar, while an underperforming release would raise questions about the recovery and could push the currency lower. FOMC minutes soothe market nerves The FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday, didn’t contain any surprises, which was just fine as far as the markets were concerned. Investors have become increasingly nervous over the spectre of a recession in the United States. Recent data is pointing to a possible slowdown, at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle which will slow the economy. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the nervous markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest that drastic scenario, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and whether inflation is finally easing. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM The US dollar showed modest gains after the minutes were released, but we are seeing limited movement across the majors today. The dollar index rose slightly to 102.07, but has retreated to 101.83, as resistance at the multi-year breakout line of 102. 35 held firm. There is support at 101.50 and 101.00. USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD has support at 1.2750 and 1.2661 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
A quiet day in Asia | Oanda

(EUR) Euro Rally Hits A Wall! | Is EUR/USD Going To Decline Again!? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 25.05.2022 16:09
Euro falls sharply The euro has reversed directions on Wednesday and is sharply lower. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0663, down 0.67% on the day. The euro was up 1.29% on Monday and extended its gains on Tuesday, hitting a 4-week high, after ECB President Lagarde announced that the ECB would raise interest rates in July. On the data front, there weren’t any surprises out of Germany. GDP in Q1 rose by 0.2% QoQ, as expected. Compared to Q4 of 2019, the quarter prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, growth was 0.9% smaller, which means that the economy is yet to fully recover from the Covid crisis. The war in Ukraine and Covid-19 have resulted in supply chain disruptions and accelerating inflation, which has hampered economic growth. German confidence remains in deep-freeze German GfK Consumer Sentiment came in at -26.0 in May, a slight improvement from the April reading of -26.6, which marked a record low. Not surprisingly, consumers put the blame for their deep pessimism on two key factors – the conflict in Ukraine and spiralling inflation. The GfK survey also found that consumer spending has weakened, as high costs for food and energy have reduced spending on non-essential items. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The ECB Financial Stability Review, published twice a year, echoed what German consumers are saying. The report bluntly stated that financial stability conditions have deteriorated in the eurozone, as the post-Covid recovery has been tested by higher inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The report noted that the economic outlook for the eurozone had weakened, with inflation and supply disruptions representing significant headwinds for the eurozone economy. Given this challenging economic landscape, the euro will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the US dollar. EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0736 and 1.0865 EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0648. The next support line is at 1.0519 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Technical Tuesdays 21 June 2022

NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Jumpy After Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) Decision | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 25.05.2022 14:10
The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. NZD/USD posted strong gains in the Asian session but has surrendered most of those gains. RBNZ shows hawkish teeth The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered on expectations, with a 0.50% rate hike which brings the cash rate to 2.0%, its highest level since 2016. The New Zealand dollar dipped ahead of the decision but rallied by over one percent after the rate increase. However, the upswing proved to be brief, as NZD/USD has given up most of those gains. The rate hike of 0.50% was widely expected, but the markets weren’t sure what to expect from the rate statement. In the end, the statement was quite hawkish, with the RBNZ forecasting that the cash rate will have to increase to 3.4% by the end of 2022 and peak at 3.9% in mid-2023. Prior to today’s statement, the RBNZ had projected that the cash rate would remain below 3% until mid-2023 and peak at 3.4% in 2024. In the revised forecast, the RBNZ is giving notice that the cash rate peak will be higher than expected and the pace of tightening will also be faster than previously anticipated. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM In follow-up remarks, Governor Orr acknowledged the possibility of a recession but said that the Bank had to curb the growth in demand in order to rein in inflation and keep inflation expectations in check. The RBNZ has forecast that inflation will peak at 7% in Q2, after a gain of 6.9% in the first quarter. Orr has come out swinging, but it will be a tricky task to aggressively raise rates and slow growth without causing the economy to stall. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6475. Above, there is resistance at 0.6540 There is support at 0.6352 and 0.6287 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
China: Headline PMIs show recovery but details hint at weak demand

Japanese yen rises on strong BoJ CPI | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.05.2022 23:25
After several days of trading sideways, the yen has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 126.58, down 1.02% on the day. The yen is currently trading at its highest level in five weeks. BoJ CPI stronger than expected The Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation gauge, BoJ CPI, surprised the markets with a gain of 1.4% in April, higher than the consensus estimate of 1.0%. The index was up from 1.1% in March and is reflective of inflation moving higher. Of course, Japan is not facing the surging inflation which has hit the US, UK and other developed economies, but it is a significant change nonetheless, after years of deflation. Japan’s CPI excluding fresh food is expected to remain above 2%, which is the BoJ’s inflation target. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM While other major central banks have tightened policy in response to spiralling inflation, the BoJ continues to insist that cost-push inflation will ease. The Bank has tenaciously defended its yield curve control, maintaining that ultra-low rates are critical in order to support the fragile economy. The BoJ has not hesitated to intervene in order to cap JGB rates but has not made any moves to prop up the yen, which hit 20-year lows earlier this month. The yen may have flexed some muscles, but I would still consider yen risk tilted to the downside. The US economy remains in good shape, and the US dollar is also a safe-haven asset. If the Ukraine war continues to cause increases in energy and food prices, risk appetite would fall and investors would likely flock to the safety of the US dollar. The yen is at the mercy of US yields, which have generally been on an upswing over the past few months, pushing the yen sharply low. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has broken below support at 1.2759 and 1.2672. Below, there is support at 1.2550 There is resistance at 1.2825. Above, 1.2947 is protecting the 130 level   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Today FX Market And Euro Pairs (i.a. EUR/USD) Cam Be Influenced By Economic Data Coming From US And Eurozone. US ISM Manufacturing And Eurozone CPI In Fovus

(EUR) Euro Rises To 1-Month High On Christine Lagarde (ECB) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.05.2022 19:53
The euro has extended its gains on Tuesday. EUR/USD has broken above the 1.07 line for the first time since April 26th. ECB’s Lagarde sends euro soaring The euro was red hot on Monday, as EUR/USD jumped 1.29%, its best one-day showing this year. The upswing was courtesy of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who detailed the Bank’s rate plans in a blog post. This unusual move certainly caught the attention of the markets, who gave the euro a massive thumbs-up. Lagarde has been a strong supporter of an accommodative policy and rather dismissive about inflationary pressures. However, Lagarde has had to recalibrate as eurozone inflation continues to accelerate. The war in Ukraine has resulted in soaring oil and food prices, and there are no indications that the conflict will end anytime soon. The ECB has been sending signals that it planned to tighten policy, and Lagarde’s post confirms the shift in policy. The ECB will embark on its rate-tightening cycle in July and will exit negative rates in September. Interestingly, the Bank will continue its QE programme, which raises the question of whether the ECB’s moves are really that aggressive. Perhaps the new stance is mostly symbolic until we see a significant increase in rates. Judging by the euro’s sharp climb, however, the markets sense that Lagarde is signalling a significant shift from the ECB. The euro is flexing some muscle, but I would maintain that risk is tilted to the downside in the medium term. The US dollar has lost ground against most of the majors over the past few days, as fears of a US recession have escalated. Still, the Fed is committed to significant tightening in the next few months, and higher US rates should provide a boost for the greenback. . EUR/USD Technical The euro is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0736. Above, 1.0820 is a multi-decade breakout line There is support at 1.0648 and 1.0519 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Asian equities are very mixed today

New Zealand dollar rally fizzles | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.05.2022 14:12
The New Zealand dollar has reversed directions after a solid 3-day rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6432, down 0.55% on the day. China jitters weigh on NZ dollar New Zealand’s number one trading partner is China, and it’s no exaggeration to say that when China sneezes, New Zealand catches a cold. China has tenaciously implemented a zero-tolerance policy for Covid, which has meant lockdowns that have confined millions of residents. Unsurprisingly, this has dampened growth in the world’s number two economy. The Covid restrictions were in full force in April, and UBS has projected that China’s economy plunged by 8.0% in Q2 and has downgraded China’s 2022 GDP to 3.0%, down sharply from 4.2%. Investors should not assume that China’s economy will re-energize once the Covid restrictions are eased – UBS is warning that China does not have a clear exit strategy from its current stringent Covid policy, which will hamper a recovery. The downgrade in China’s GDP (JP Morgan also lowered its forecast from 4.3% to 3.7%) has soured sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar. Over in New Zealand, retail sales for Q1 came to a screeching halt. The headline figure declined by 0.5%, down from 8.3% in Q4 2020, while core retail sales came in at zero, down from 6.8%. The weak numbers have contributed to today’s New Zealand dollar’s descent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday when it holds a policy meeting. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 50-bps for a second straight month. This would bring the cash rate to 2.0%, which is considered a “neutral” stance. It’s noteworthy that the cash rate hasn’t been at the neutral level since 2015, so the RBNZ is moving into rarified air. The RBNZ will likely continue its rate-tightening cycle to 3.0% in order to curb spiralling inflation, and at tomorrow’s meeting, the Bank will likely state that more hikes are on the way. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD has support at 0.6352 and 0.6287 There is resistance at 0.6475 and 0.6540 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 347) | Oanda

How Is Euro Performing Against US Dollar? Check Out EUR/USD Chart! | Euro surges to 1-month high | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 23.05.2022 14:32
The euro has jumped out of the gates on Monday with sharp gains. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0673, up 1.12% on the day. Euro rebounds The euro looked hopelessly lost earlier this month, when it dropped to 1.0349, its lowest level since January 2017. There was increasing speculation that the euro was heading to parity with the US dollar. EUR/USD has rebounded back in impressive style, gaining 1.42% last week and extending the rally today. However, the upswing will be difficult to sustain above the 1.07 line, as the euro’s rally is more a story of US dollar weakness rather than euro strength. The dollar has fallen out of favour as fears of a US recession are weighing on sentiment towards the dollar. US yields were above the lofty 3% threshold just two weeks ago, but nervous investors have snapped up US Treasury bonds, sending yields lower. In turn, the US dollar has also retreated. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Despite the euro’s turnaround, the medium and long-term picture is bearish for the currency. The ECB remains in dovish mode, and upcoming Fed rate hikes will widen the US/Europe rate differential and weigh on the US dollar. The ECB might raise rates in July, but will clearly lag behind an aggressive Fed, which is likely to deliver 50-bps hikes at the July and August meetings. The euro faces a persistent headwind coming out of Ukraine, as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues. Heavy fighting has been reported in the east of the country, and a ceasefire, let alone an end to the fighting, appears unlikely anytime soon. That means oil and wheat prices will remain elevated, contributing to high global inflation and weighing on risk appetite, which is bearish for the euro. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0648. Above, there is resistance at 1.0736 There is support at 1.0519 and 1.0431 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda
Has Macron-Biden Conversation Caused The Rally Of Crude Oil Price?

Is the yen making a comeback? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.05.2022 18:14
After a brutal slide over the past two months, the Japanese yen is showing some bounce in its step. Japanese yen bounces back The yen registered 10 straight losing weeks but finally ended that nasty streak last week, with gains of about one per cent. Barring any surprises today, the yen will repeat with another strong week. On Thursday, USD/JPY dropped to 127.02, its lowest level since late April. Has the yen turned the corner? The US dollar pummelled the yen in the months of March and April, and earlier this month USD/JPY touched 131.34, its highest level in some 20 years. The yen’s descent was rapid and drew warnings from the BoJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance. There was speculation that the exchange rate was nearing an unknown ‘line in the sand’, which if breached, would trigger an intervention to prop up the yen (clearly, 130 was not that line in the sand). The yen’s movement is largely dependent on the US/Japan rate differential. With the BoJ showing no hesitation to intervene in order to defend its yield curve, the yen has been at the mercy of the direction of US yields. Over the past few months, yields have been generally going up, which has pushed the yen sharply lower. The Federal Reserve remains in aggressive mode, but with concerns of stagflation and a possible recession, the Fed may have to ease up on the pace and size of its rate hikes, which would weigh on US yields, thus boosting the yen. The recent turbulence in the stock markets, which has seen equities fall sharply, has benefited the yen, which traditionally acts as a safe-haven asset. The yen may have flexed some muscle, but I would still consider yen risk tilted to the downside. The US economy remains in good shape, and the US dollar is also a safe-haven asset. If the Ukraine war continues to cause increases in energy and food prices, risk appetite would fall and investors would likely flock to the safety of the US dollar. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.2938, followed by resistance at 1.3123 There is support at 1.3000 and 1.2918 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
GBP/USD Increased, S&P 500 Went Down By Ca. 1%, Nasdaq Lost 1.33%. EUR/USD Exited Below-1.04 Levels

British Pound (GBP) yawns on mixed retail sales | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.05.2022 12:03
The British pound is drifting on Friday, after showing unusually strong volatility this week. The pound rebounded on Thursday, racking up gains of 1.06% and briefly breaking above the symbolic 1.25 line. UK retail sales showed a strong gain in April, with a gain of 1.4% MoM. This followed a decline of 1.2% in March. However, on a yearly basis, sales volumes were 4.9% lower, as the broader picture looks grim. The monthly gain for March may have been a blip, as consumers were hit with higher household energy costs as well as an increase in taxes. Add into the mix inflation at 9.0% and possibly heading into double-digits, and it’s difficult to envision retail sales moving higher. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Consumer confidence hits record low The GfK consumer confidence index remains deep in negative territory. The index dropped to -40 in May, down from -38 in April. How pessimistic are consumers about the economy? The previous record of -39 was set in July 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis.  Consumer confidence is considered an early, reliable signal of economic activity, and these massively poor numbers could well indicate that the UK economy is falling into recession. A GfK note summed up the grim situation, saying that the BoE is pessimistic about inflation, consumer confidence is gloomy, and there aren’t any reasons for optimism anytime soon. This certainly does not bode well for the British pound, which has plunged over 7% since the start of the year. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM The BoE finds itself playing catch-up with the inflation curve. There have been voices calling for more aggressive rate hikes than the 25-bps increments we’ve seen over the past three meetings, especially with inflation hitting 9%. The central bank has a daunting challenge, as it must raise rates to curb inflation but also needs to be mindful that the economy is still recovering from Covid and could tip into a recession due to high interest rates. GBP/USD Technical 1.2393 has switched back to support. Below, there is support at 1.2275 There is resistance at 1.2525 and 1.2643   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
AUD/USD Eyes 0.6945 on Strong Australia Retail Sales Data

Aussie rebounds on jobs report | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 19.05.2022 12:18
Unemployment falls to record low The Australian dollar has rebounded on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6980 in the European session, up 0.38% on the day. Australia’s April employment report was a further confirmation that the labour market remains tight. The economy created 4,000 new jobs, which is a marginal gain. However, there was an impressive gain in the number of full-time jobs (92.4 thousand), as part-time jobs declined (88.4 thousand). This move towards more full-time jobs should translate into stronger consumer spending. Even more importantly, the unemployment rate fell to a record low of 3.9%, down from 4.0%. The employment data was solid but not spectacular, which means that the RBA will most likely deliver a modest 0.25% rate hike at the June meeting. Wage growth ticked higher to 2.4% in Q1, up from 2.3% prior. At one time, RBA Governor Lowe insisted that he would not raise rates until wage growth hit 3%, but he was forced to abandon this position as inflation has continued to accelerate. The Federal Reserve has adopted a front-load approach to tightening, which means higher rates earlier on in the tightening cycle. The RBA hasn’t given any signals that it will follow suit. Still, the RBA minutes indicated that a supersize 40-bps rate hike was considered at the May meeting, although policy makers ended up delivering a 25-bps increase. We’ll probably see another 25-bps hike in June, although a 40-bps move shouldn’t be completely discounted. Australians will vote in a federal election on Saturday. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is in a tight race against Labour leader Anthony Albanese. Morrison can be expected to maintain fiscal and monetary policy, and if he wins this could give the Australian dollar a slight boost. A Labour government could raise taxes and spending, which would be bearish for the Australian dollar. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7064 and 0.7189 There is support at 0.6946 and 0.6821 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
GBP/USD analysis and forecast for June 30, 2022

UK inflation soars to 9% | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 18.05.2022 23:15
Pound slides after CPI report The British pound has taken a tumble after April CPI jumped to 9.0% YoY, up sharply from 7.0% in March. GBP/USD has fallen 100 points today and is trading at 1.2390 in North American trade. UK inflation continues to run at a 40- year high, and the cost of living crisis is undoubtedly keeping Finance Minister Sunak and BoE Governor Bailey awake at night. Core CPI didn’t provide any relief, as it rose to 6.2%, up from 5.7% prior. This indicates that inflationary pressures are broad-based and aren’t about to ease anytime soon. The only positive in the CPI release was that it was a bit lower than the forecast of 9.1%, but I’m sure few in the City of London are taking any solace from that tidbit. The BoE has essentially raised the white flag on the inflation front, saying that many of the factors at play, such as the Ukraine war and soaring energy costs are beyond the Bank’s control. The BoE has warned that things could get worse, projecting that inflation will top 10% later this year and warning of a likely recession. Bailey & Co. are doing their best to catch up with the inflation curve as they aggressively hike rates while trying not to choke off economic growth. With the spectre of 10% inflation looming, confidence in the BoE may be ebbing. Like the Fed, the BoE has come under heavy criticism for not reacting to spiralling inflation quickly enough, and the 25-bps incremental hikes may not prove to be sufficient. The Fed has gone full throttle with a 50-bps hike and more to follow, and pressure is mounting on the BoE to follow suit. The US is also facing spiralling inflation, and Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% hikes in June and July. Former Fed Chair Bernard Bernanke weighed in on Fed policy, saying that it was a mistake for the Fed not to react earlier to rising inflation. Bernanke also warned that the US economy could face stagflation in the next year or two. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has broken below support at 1.2436. Below, 1.2374 is under pressure There is resistance at 1.2557 and 1.2619   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/CAD hits 1.3000 on weak oil price ahead of Fed's Powell Testimony and CPI Data Release | ICM.COM

Canadian dollar eyes CPI | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 18.05.2022 15:12
The Canadian dollar has looked sharp, taking advantage of recent US dollar weakness. USD/CAD barrelled past the 1.30 line on Thursday, but the Canadian dollar has rallied and is currently trading at 1.2830. Has Canada’s inflation peaked? Investors are keeping both eyes on Canada’s April inflation report, which will be released later today. On a monthly basis, the markets are expecting a significant drop – headline CPI is expected at 0.5% (1.4% prior) and core CPI is projected at 0.4% (1.0% prior). If the readings are within expectations, we can expect some headlines trumpeting that inflation has peaked. I would argue that it would be premature to declare that inflation is easing based on a single reading. Still, the CPI release could be a market-mover. If inflation is weak, the markets may expect the BoC to be less aggressive in its rate hiking stance and that could send the Canadian dollar lower. Conversely, a stronger than expected CPI would likely send the Canadian currency higher. The BoC raised rates by 0.50% in April, and there is strong pressure to deliver another 0.50% hike at the June 1st meeting, especially if inflation is higher than expected. The US dollar lost ground overnight, even though US Treasury yields moved higher and Fed Chair Powell said rates could rise above the terminal rate (around 3.50%) in order to contain inflation. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke weighed in on Fed policy, saying that the central bank waited too long to respond to inflation. Bernanke warned that he expected to see stagflation in the next year or two. Despite the talk of recession and stagflation, the US posted strong numbers on Tuesday, led by retail sales. The headline reading came in at 0.9% and core retail sales at 1.0%, as both beat the estimates. Consumers are in a spending mood, despite a weakening in consumer confidence. If inflation doesn’t show signs of easing in the next few months, consumers might reduce spending, which could dampen economic growth. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2848. Above, there is resistance at 1.2962 There is support at 1.2787 and 1.2673 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Having your cake and eating it. Georgia, the war in Ukraine and integration with the West

British pound soars on strong jobs data | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.05.2022 21:47
The British pound continues to rally on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2463 in the European session, up 1.15% on the day. UK employment numbers sparkle The tight UK labor market is getting even tighter, as reflected in the March employment report. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% (3.8% prior), below the 3.8% forecast and its lowest level since 1974. Employment change jumped by 83 thousand, smashing the estimate of 5 thousand. Wage growth in Q1 was up 7%, but without bonuses, the gain was only 4.2%. This means that inflation is far outstripping wage growth and exacerbating the cost of living crisis for UK households. The UK continues to grapple with a severe shortage of workers, as Covid resulted in some 500 thousand workers leaving their jobs, and many continental European workers left the UK after Brexit. For the first time on record, there are more job vacancies than unemployed persons in the UK. This economic landscape leaves the Bank of England stuck between a rock and a hard place. The central bank must raise rates to contain soaring inflation, but this could tip the economy into a recession if the BoE is unable to guide it to a ‘soft landing’. Governor Bailey didn’t pull any punches on Monday in his testimony before lawmakers, saying that he was extremely concerned about inflation. We’ll get a look at UK inflation on Wednesday, with the markets bracing for a reading of 9.1% in April. I expect the inflation report to be a market-mover for the pound – a stronger than expected release will likely send the pound higher, while a weak release would put strong pressure on the currency. Today’s employment report has raised expectations that the BoE will have to remain aggressive with its rate cycle, which has pushed UK yields and the British pound sharply higher. If the US/UK rate differential continues to narrow, the pound should be able to make up ground against the dollar. . GBP/USD Technical 1.2275 is providing support. Below, there is support at 1.2143 GBP/USD has broken above resistance at 1.2393. Above, there is resistance at 1.2525 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 29, 2022

(JPY) Japanese yen remains directionless. How Is US Dollar (USD) Performing Against Japanese Yen (JPY)? | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.05.2022 21:13
The Japanese yen has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.32, up 0.17% on the day. The US dollar pummelled the yen in the months of March and April, but the yen has held its own in May. Still, USD/JPY remains at high levels and the 130 line, which has psychological significance, remains vulnerable. If there is a line in the sand for the Japanese government or the BoJ to intervene and prop up the yen, it certainly is not the 130 level, as the dollar broke through this line without a response. The yen is extremely sensitive to the US/Japan rate differential, and with the BoJ demonstrating that it will tenaciously defend its yield curve, the yen is at the mercy of Powell & Co. Japan releases GDP for Q1 on Thursday. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.4%, after a respectable gain of 1.1% in Q4 of 2020. Investors never like to see negative growth, and a lower-than-expected GDP report will put downward pressure on the yen.   US retail sales within expectations Over in the US, retail sales for April came in at 0.9%, just shy of the consensus estimate of 1.0%. Core retail sales rose 1.0%, above the forecast of 0.7% and close to the 1.1% gain in March. The numbers were not spectacular by any stretch, but were respectable, given that consumer confidence has weakened – the UoM Consumer Sentiment index fell to 59.42 in May, its lowest level since October 2011. US households continue to spend, despite a deterioration in consumer confidence. Wages are not keeping up with the cost of living, but consumers appear to be using savings which accumulated during the Covid pandemic. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.2938, followed by resistance at 1.3123 There is support at 1.3000 and 1.2918   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
CNB has spent EUR7bn since May in defending the koruna

British Pound (GBP) yawns after Bailey (BoE) warnings | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.05.2022 23:11
The British pound is trading quietly on Monday, as the currency markets have started the week with a whimper. BoE’s Bailey says dark times ahead BoE Governor Bailey testified before lawmakers earlier today, and his message was a grim one. The BoE has predicted that soaring inflation could top 10%, and Bailey today admitted that “this is a bad situation to be in”.  Bailey said that the Ukraine war could cause a further energy shock and that his concern about the surge in food prices was “apocalyptic”. Bailey gets full credit for not sugar-coating what is a difficult economic situation, but his candidness will not help support the struggling pound, which hasn’t posted a winning week since mid-April. I appreciate Bailey’s honesty, but the BoE has run into a credibility problem with its rate policy in recent months, and it’s questionable whether his message that dark times lie ahead is the way to restore confidence in the central bank. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The economic picture in the US is brighter, but the Fed’s aggressive policy will lead to a slowdown in growth. The big question is can Fed Chair Powell guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.4% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023, down from 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Federal Reserve officials last week reiterated their intention to deliver 0.50% rate increases at the June and July meetings, which will help limit US dollar gains. At the same time, any US data that is worse than expected could lead to calls for a hike of 0.75%, which would be bullish for the US dollar. GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418   Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 23, 2022

(USD/CAD) - Strong Performance Of Canadian Dollar - CAD rallies on US consumer confidence | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.05.2022 18:04
The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Monday, as it trades at the 1.29 line. Weak US consumer confidence boosts Canadian dollar The Canadian dollar ended the week in splendid fashion, with gains of over 1 per cent. This marked the Canadian dollar’s best one-day performance this year and recovered all of the week’s losses. The strong gains were driven by a disappointing UoM Consumer Sentiment index for May, which dropped to 59.2, down sharply from 65.2 in April and the lowest since October 2011. Just one year ago, the index was 82.8, indicative of a massive erosion in the confidence levels of the US consumer. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Consumers were more pessimistic about current and future expectations, and inflation expectations remained at 5.4% for a third straight month, a 40-year high. A fall in consumer confidence has so far not spilled over to consumer spending, but soaring inflation could cause consumers to cut back on spending, which would hurt economic growth. Canada posted some solid numbers earlier today, although that wasn’t enough for the Canadian dollar to extend Friday’s impressive gains. Housing Starts and Wholesale Sales improved and were stronger than expected. Manufacturing Sales rose 2.5% in March, crushing the estimate of 1.7%. Oil and metal sales rose, reflective of high commodity prices, which is bullish for the commodity-based Canadian dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Canada’s tightening job market is putting further pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at a faster pace than expected. The benchmark rate is currently at an even 1.00%, after the 0.50% hike in April. Governor Macklem has hinted that he could deliver more 0.50% hikes and we could see rates rise to 2% by the end of Q2. Macklem has signalled the rate-hike cycle could be very aggressive, saying that he will lift rates above 3% if necessary, in order to beat back spiralling inflation. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2962. Above, there is resistance at 1.3023 There is support at 1.2848 and 1.2787   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
ECB's Marathon. Earnings Season Is Coming! What's Up Equities?

Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Chart Shows A Sliding Price Line | EU forecast: growth down, inflation up | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.05.2022 17:59
The euro is drifting at the start of the week, as EUR/USD trades slightly above the 1.04 level. The euro remains under pressure, as it continues to weaken against the US dollar. EUR/USD hasn’t mustered a winning week since March and hit a dubious milestone on Thursday, closing below the 1.04 line for the first time since January 2003. If the euro breaks below support at 1.03 it would be on track to fall to parity, a psychologically significant level. EU forecast sees lower growth, higher inflation The EU gave the eurozone a report card on Monday, and the data wasn’t pretty. The report was the EU’s first forecast since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The forecast stated that eurozone growth would expand by 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. In February, the forecast stood at 4% and 2.7%, respectively. On the inflation front, the forecast was revised upwards to 6.1% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 3.5% and 1.7%, respectively. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The takeaway from the EU forecast is that as a result of the Ukraine war, the eurozone is experiencing lower growth and higher inflation, raising concerns that the eurozone could soon be gripped by stagflation. The eurozone has been particularly hard-hit by the conflict, due to its heavy reliance on Russian energy and geographical proximity to Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, investors don’t like what they are seeing, and the euro has taken it on the chin. Reports that the EU is trying to garner support for a ban on Russian oil, which would mark the ratcheting up of sanctions against Moscow, is putting further pressure on the wobbly euro. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The upheaval caused by the Ukraine war seems to have woken up the ECB from its dovish slumber. After years of monetary easing, ECB members are becoming more vocal about the need for tighter policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that QE would end in the third quarter, and a rate hike would follow “some time” after that. We could see the launch of a rate-tightening cycle as early as July. EUR/USD Technical 1.0398 has switched to resistance. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.0473 There is support at 1.0321 and 1.0246 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Chart of the Week : An ECB rate hike is imminent

How Is Euro Performing Against US Dollar (EUR/USD)? (EUR) Euro under pressure, falls below 1.04 | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.05.2022 16:15
The euro has stabilized on Friday, after a dreadful Thursday in which EUR/USD fell 1.26%. Russian announces sanctions The euro continues to struggle and is trading at lows last seen in January 2017. The Ukraine war has taken a bite out of the eurozone economy and sent the euro tumbling. The latest development weighing on the euro was Russia’s announcement of sanctions on some European gas importers, at a time when the EU is trying to garner support for a ban on Russian oil. Germany has said that it could manage without Russian oil, but the main stumbling block to the ban appears to be Hungary, which is very dependent on Russian energy supplies. The euro has broken through major support lines at 1.08 and 1.05, and if it breaches the 1.03 line, we could see move towards parity with the dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The wobbly euro hasn’t received any support from the ECB, which has been slow to shed its dovish policy. After years of monetary easing, ECB members are becoming more vocal about the need for tighter policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that QE would end in the third quarter, and a rate hike would follow “some time” after that. We could see a rate increase as early as July, although it’s unclear if the ECB will launch a rate cycle with a hike of 25 or 50 basis points. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The US dollar has shined against the majors, buoyed by an aggressive Federal Reserve. The April US inflation report indicated that expectations of an inflation peak were premature, as CPI fell only slightly, from 8.5% to 8.3%. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% rate increases in June and July, as the Fed is focused on lowering inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. There has been some talk of a 0.75% hike, but it is far more likely that the Fed will stick with 0.50% moves, hoping that they can do the trick and wrestle down inflation. EUR/USD Technical 1.0398 has switched to resistance. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.0473 There is support at 1.0321 and 1.0246     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
GBP/USD analysis on June 7, 2022

(GBP) British pound’s woes continue | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.05.2022 15:29
The British pound can’t seem to find its footing. GBP/USD hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th and closed on Thursday below the 1.22 line, for the first time since May 2020. In the European session, the pound is trading quietly at the 1.22 line. Recession fears, negative growth weighing on sterling The UK treated the markets to a data dump on Thursday, but the news was not positive. UK growth for Q2 showed a 0.8% gain, down sharply from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and missing the 1.0% estimate. In March, the economy contracted by 0.1%, compared to a 0.1% gain in February and shy of the estimate of 0.0%. Investors never like to hear the phrase ‘negative growth’ and the March GDP report pushed the pound lower on Thursday.  There was more bad news as Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Business Investment all slowed down and posted negative readings. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The UK continues to grapple with spiralling inflation, and the BoE has warned that things could get even worse. CPI hit 7%  The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it will take time for higher interest rates to take a bite out of inflation. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response and has fallen another 125 points since then. Risk is tilted to the downside for the pound, which has tumbled about 7% since the beginning of April. Fed’s Powell confirmed by Senate Fed Chair Powell was overwhelmingly nominated for a second term on Thursday by the US Senate. Powell appears committed to delivering 0.50% rate hikes at the next two meetings, although there has been talk of a super-size 0.75% hike in order to curb soaring inflation. US inflation finally slowed in April, but the reading of 8.3% (8.5% prior) was hardly what the markets were looking for, and talk of an “inflation peak” proved to be premature. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Euro has every chance to rally (expect a local increase in EUR/USD and AUD/USD)

New Zealand dollar stabilizes

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.05.2022 14:54
The New Zealand dollar is headed for its seventh consecutive losing week.  NZD/USD has declined 2.51% this week and the currency is trading at July 2020 lows. The currency plunged 1.01% on Thursday but has steadied on Friday and is trading at 0.6244. New Zealand’s Manufacturing Index slowed to 51.2 in April, down from 53.8 in March. The reading didn’t have much impact on the New Zealand dollar, which remains under pressure after a sharp drop on Thursday. This marked the lowest level since August 2021, and the index has fallen close to the 50.0 level, which separates contraction from expansion. Manufacturers continue to point to labour shortages and supply chain disruptions as key problems for the sector, along with Covid-19. The slowdown in manufacturing follows Inflation Expectations for Q2, which accelerated for an eighth straight month. The gain was admittedly small (3.29%, up from 3.27%), but the RBNZ has stated it would act to ensure that soaring CPI does not become embedded into inflation expectations. I expect the RBNZ to continue to raise rates aggressively until inflation expectations show signs of easing, which could take several months. The RBNZ next meets on May 25th and is widely expected to hike rates by 0.50%, which would bring the Official Cash Rate to 2.0%. Fed’s Powell sticks to 0.50% stance The Fed has signalled that it plans to deliver 50-bps increases in June and July, but the markets aren’t dismissing the possibility of a massive 0.75% hike, especially after US inflation remained higher than expected in April, at 8.3%. Hopes of an “inflation peak” were dashed, and the Fed’s aggressive stance appears justified in order to wrestle down red-hot inflation. Fed Chair Powell was overwhelmingly confirmed for a second term on Thursday by the US Senate. Powell stuck to the 0.50% script overnight, which has helped soothe market nerves about a 0.75% move. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD continues to break below support levels as it loses ground. There is support at 0.6169 and 0.6066 There is resistance at 0.6281 and 0.6344 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
This Week: UK GDP And NATO Summit! Eurozone CPI Will Be Released On Friday! | Oanda

(NZD/USD) New Zealand dollar sinks after US CPI | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 21:13
This week has gone from bad to worse for the New Zealand dollar, as NZD/USD has taken a tumble on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6248, down 0.74% on the day. The currency has dropped 2.66% this week and is trading at lows not seen since June 2020. US inflation stays hot The US inflation report for April showed that CPI eased, but the decline was much smaller than expected. US CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. This chilled any speculation of an ‘”inflation peak”, as the markets digested the fact that even if inflation is moving lower, it could do so at a very slow pace. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Fed member James Bullard said on Wednesday that 50-bps moves were his base case and this appears to be the majority view For the Fed, the high inflation reading confirms that its hawkish stance is justified, but now there are calls for policy makers to be even more aggressive in tightening the monetary screws. The Fed has signalled that it plans to deliver 50-bps increases in June and July, but the markets aren’t dismissing the possibility of a massive 75-bps hike. Fed member James Bullard said on Wednesday that 50-bps moves were his base case and this appears to be the majority view. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Fed member Mester said on Tuesday that she supports raising rates by 50-bps Still, inflation was higher than investors or the Fed had expected, and the May inflation report, which will be released just a few days prior to the Fed’s next meeting on June 14-15th, will be critical in determining the size of the next rate hike. The Fed has embarked on a rate-hike cycle primarily because of soaring inflation, so it stands to reason that inflation will be a key factor in rate policy. Fed member Mester said on Tuesday that she supports raising rates by 50-bps at the next two meetings and then speeding up or slowing down the pace of increases based on inflation levels. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  At the April meeting, the RBNZ said it would act to ensure that “current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations.” The RBNZ is also under pressure to tighten more aggressively after Inflation Expectations for Q2 crept upwards to 3.29% (3.27% prior). Inflation Expectations have now risen for an eighth successive month, and the RBNZ is looking to reverse this trend. At the April meeting, the RBNZ said it would act to ensure that “current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations.”  With Inflation Expectations not showing any signs of easing, the RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 50-bps at the May 25th meeting. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is down sharply and has broken below support at 0.6281. Below, there is support at 0.6169 There is resistance at 0.6344 and 0.6456 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

(GBP/USD) British Pound Dips On Soft GDP (Gross Domestic Product) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 21:09
The pound continues to lose ground and is trading at its lowest level since May 2020. GBP/USD fell below the 1.22 level earlier and hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th. Negative growth raises alarm bells The UK economy is struggling, a grim fact which was brought home by the Q1 GDP report earlier today. On a quarterly basis, GDP came in at 0.8%, down from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and shy of the 1.0% estimate. Even worse, the economy contracted in March by 0.1%, after a 0.1% gain in February. This missed the forecast of 0.0%. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up The negative growth reading was a result of the crushing inflation that has gripped the UK. CPI hit 7% in March and the markets are braced for a reading of around 9% from week’s April CPI release. The cost of living crisis has dampened consumer spending, a key reason for the negative reading for March GDP. The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response, even though the BoE increased rates by 0.25%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st The BoE finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It needs to raise rates in order to curb soaring inflation, but weak growth means that the higher rates could tip the economy into recession. The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. US inflation eases, a bit US inflation weakened in April, but not as much as the markets had expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. There had been talk of an “inflation peak”, but the inflation data indicates that even if inflation is falling, the pace could be much slower than the markets would like. GBP/USD Technical GBP has breached support at 1.2199 for the first time since May 2020. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
ECB's Marathon. Earnings Season Is Coming! What's Up Equities?

Euro Against US Dollar - (EUR) Euro Drops To January 2017 Lows | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 16:40
The euro has fallen close to the 1.04 level, which has held since January 2017. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0429, down 0.81% on the day. ECB hints at a rate hike in Q3 After years of monetary easing which was fueled by low inflation levels, the ECB is slowly but surely switching gears and talking openly about a rate hike. It wasn’t long ago that ECB President Christine Lagarde was dismissing high CPI numbers as “transitory” and saying that the ECB would remain out of sync with the Fed and its tighter policy. Lagarde has been forced to change her tune, however, as eurozone inflation has soared, hitting 7.5%. Germany’s inflation rate, released today, rose to 7.4%, an all-time high for a second successive month (7.3% prior). Eurozone inflation is being driven by high energy and food prices, both of which are largely due to the war in Ukraine. With no end to the conflict on the horizon, inflation could climb even higher, putting pressure on the ECB to start tightening policy. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Lagarde said on Wednesday that the ECB will end asset purchases in Q3 and follow with a rate hike “some time later”. Other ECB members have been less vague and are calling for a rate hike in July. There is a debate within the ECB whether to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the deposit rate to zero, or deliver a modest 0.25% increase. The ECB meeting in June should give the markets a better idea as to whether the July meeting will be live. US inflation dips, but less than expected US inflation slowed in April, but still came in stronger than expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. The Fed’s hawkish stance appears justified after the inflation release, as the markets are digesting the fact that if US inflation is easing, it will be at a slow pace. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  EUR/USD Technical 1.0557 remains a weak resistance line, followed by resistance at 1.0632 There is support at 1.0473 and 1.0398 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
US spending breakdown fuels recession fears

British Pound (GBP) Rises On US Inflation, GDP Looms

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 11.05.2022 20:28
The British pound is in positive territory, as the currency tries to break a four-day losing streak. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2355, up 0.36% on the day. US inflation slows, but is higher than expected US inflation dipped in April, but still came in above the forecast. Headline CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. Core CPI came in at 6.2%, down from 6.5% but above the estimate of 6.0%. The US dollar is broadly lower as a result, although the decline would have been sharper had the estimates been right on. Today’s inflation data will no doubt result in some headlines proclaiming an “inflation peak”, but I would caution that it seems premature to declare that inflation is on its way down after just one release. Higher interest rates will do the job and curtail inflation, but it will take time. In the meantime, today’s inflation report will not change the Fed’s stance, and the CME’s FedWatch has pegged the likelihood of a 50-bps rate hike in June at 89%. Looking forward, inflation gazing has become even trickier in the current environment. There are huge unknowns around price pressures due to the Ukraine war, as well as the extent of China’s slowdown and the impact on supply chains due to China’s uncompromising zero-Covid policy. With energy prices at very high levels, it will be difficult for headline CPI to come down. Over in the UK, we’ll get a load of data on Tuesday. The key release, Preliminary GDP for Q1, is expected to slow to 1.0%, down from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. The UK economy is showing an unhealthy mix of slower growth together with soaring inflation, which has raised concerns about stagflation. The BoE has been raising rates to curb inflation, but investors have not been impressed, as the pound has hit hard times and hit a 23-month low earlier this week. . GBP/USD Technical There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  
FX: AUD/USD And NZD/USD Set New Lows, USD/JPY Reached 135. Can (MU) Micron Technology Stock Decrease Amid Earnings?

Euro edges up, eyes US inflation

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 11.05.2022 16:24
Lagarde signals a rate hike ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke today at an event sponsored by the Slovenia Central Bank, but what was of most interest were her remarks on future rate hikes. The ECB remains in dovish mode, but with inflation hitting 7.5% in the eurozone, the ECB will be tightening the monetary screws. More ECB members are publicly urging the central bank to raise rates and in her speech, Lagarde appeared to heed these calls, in her clearest signal yet that a rate hike is coming later in the year. Lagarde stated that the ECB will end asset purchases under its QE programme, likely in Q3. This will be followed by a rate hike “some time” later. She acknowledged that “some time” was imprecise but added that it could be as little as several weeks. Lagarde added that the normalisation process would be “gradual”, which means investors shouldn’t expect an aggressive rate-hike cycle such as we’re seeing with the Fed and the BoE. US inflation next All eyes are on the US inflation report for April. Headline CPI is expected to drop from 8.50% to 8.1%, and Core CPI is forecast to fall from 6.50% to 6.0%. The inflation report is likely to produce a binary outcome. If inflation does drop significantly, as expected, we will see headlines trumpeting that inflation has peaked, and the US dollar will likely lose ground. Conversely, higher numbers than expected will lead to expectations of faster Fed tightening and should give the dollar a boost. . EUR/USD Technical 1.0557 remains a weak resistance line, followed by resistance at 1.0632 There is support at 1.0473 and 1.0398   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 347) | Oanda

Inflation on the mind of NZ dollar | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 11.05.2022 15:34
The New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6345, up 0.86% on the day. NZD/USD has been on a nasty slide, with only one winning session since April 20th. The US dollar has flexed its muscles lately, particularly against risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar. This is a result of rising risk aversion as well as the Fed tightening its monetary policy. Investors have plenty to worry about on the global scene, with a slowdown in China and the ongoing Ukraine war among the most pressing problems. China has stubbornly stuck to its zero-Covid policy and put massive numbers of residents under lockdown. This has caused a downturn in the Chinese economy and has also spilt over and is causing significant disruptions to global supply chains. China is New Zealand’s largest export market by far, and the deterioration in China’s growth is taking a toll on New Zealand’s economy. New Zealand, US inflation data next Inflation has been spiralling in New Zealand. CPI hit 6.9% in Q1, the highest level since 1990. The RBNZ has responded with a series of rate hikes, and the central bank is clearly concerned about inflation expectations becoming embedded. Inflation Expectations have accelerated over seven straight quarters and hit 3.27% in Q1, up from 2.96% in the Q4 of 2020. We’ll get a look at the Q2 data on Thursday – if the upward trend continues, there will be additional pressure on the RBNZ to aggressively raise interest rates. The US releases April inflation numbers later today. Headline CPI is expected to drop from 8.50% to 8.1%, and Core CPI is forecast to fall from 6.50% to 6.0%. If the estimates prove accurate, I expect to see headlines proclaiming that inflation has peaked. This would seem to be a premature conclusion based on just one reading, but it would increase risk appetite and the US dollar would likely weaken as a result. On the other hand, stronger than expected numbers will likely boost the greenback, on concerns that the Fed could respond with faster tightening. . NZD/USD Technical 0.6344 is under strong pressure as resistance. Above, there is resistance at 0.6456 There is support at 0.6281 and 0.6169 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX: Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on June 30

(GBP/USD) British Pound Stable But Markets Uneasy, How Does It Perform Against US Dollar (USD) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:39
The British pound is in calm waters early in the week, as GBP/USD trades slightly above the 1.23 line. There are no major releases out of the UK or the US, which means that the pound should enjoy a quiet day. Can the BoE get it right? The British pound plunged over 2% last Thursday, a most difficult feat, considering that the Bank of England actually raised interest rates at its meeting that day. What went so wrong for the pound? The BoE dutifully raised rates at the meeting, but investors lasered in on the central bank’s downbeat message which warned of a recession, while at the same time forecasting that inflation will top 10% this year. The UK is experiencing soaring inflation at growth remains weak, which are the ingredients for stagflation. The Bank slashed its growth forecast from 1.25% to -0.25%, and the spectre of negative growth may have shaken up investors and sent the pound on its laurels. The rate hike, which in any event was relatively small at 0.25%, failed to impress the markets. BoE Governor Bailey was brutally honest when he said after the meeting that “It is a very weak projection, a very sharp slowdown”. I always appreciate when central bankers don’t hide behind gobbledygook, but the markets tend to reward good news, not honest news. There appears to be a heavy dose of scepticism as to whether the BoE can get it right, as it navigates between raising rates in order to curb inflation, while at the same time not choking economic growth. BoE Governor Bailey will need to show some achievements, such as lower inflation, in order to re-establish the central bank’s credibility, which has taken a blow in recent months. The pound has stabilized for the time being but remains vulnerable. There is plenty of risk aversion in the air, with spiralling inflation, a slowdown in China and the Ukraine war. With the Federal Reserve in hawkish mode and the US economy performing well, the risk towards GBP/USD is tilted to the downside. . GBP/USD Technical There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2418 and 1.2561 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Oil edges higher, gold falls

Crude Oil Extends Losses, (XAUUSD) Gold Price Under Pressure | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:32
Oil slips closer to USD 100 Oil prices are slightly lower again today and not far from double-digit territory as traders grapple with the prospect of recessions and a tightening of Chinese restrictions. The unwillingness and, more accurately, inability of OPEC+ to turn the taps on more is keeping oil prices very elevated but at a little over USD 100, it’s more comfortable than was looking probable at times over the last couple of months. The EU struggling to find a coordinated response on Russian oil is possibly helping to alleviate some near-term pressures, although progress with Hungary is reportedly being made. This also comes as some OPEC members warn of dwindling energy capacity as a result of underinvestment, perhaps a sign that we should get used to these higher prices. Gold struggling as central banks raise their game Uncertainty and risk aversion in the markets is doing little to support gold at the moment, with the dollar instead being favoured and the yellow metal under heavy pressure. Since coming within a whisker of USD 2,000 a few weeks ago, gold has fallen more than 7% and looks vulnerable to further losses. Inflation is still extremely high and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on risk assets. But central banks are being very aggressive to try and contain price pressures which appears to be getting in the way of gold retaining the gains it made earlier in the year when they were still in denial. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
An unusual drawdown is the perfect ending to an unusual bull market

The Next ECB Interest Rate Decision Will Be Crucial For EUR | Euro looking for direction | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:31
The euro continues to have a quiet week, as EUR/USD trades around 1.0560. German ZEW Economic Sentiment improves German financial experts remain deeply pessimistic about economic conditions, but there was a slight improvement in the May release, although not enough to give the euro any support. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to -34.3, up from -41.0 in April and above the estimate of -42.0. The drivers behind the weak ZEW assessment were the deterioration in China’s economy and the expectation that the ECB will raise interest rates in the next six months. China is not budging from its harsh zero-Covid policy, which is exerting a heavy price, both domestically and globally. In China, most large cities are under lockdown, which has dampened economic activity and disrupted factory production. This has resulted in disruptions to global supply chains, and German companies are feeling the pain. China’s property sector hasn’t been in the headlines lately, but the severe leverage problems which have affected huge developers haven’t gone away and remain a real threat to economic stability. The dovish ECB has been slow to respond to the new landscape in Europe, but ECB President Lagarde is no longer talking in dismissive terms about inflation, which has surged to 7.5% in the eurozone. On Monday, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn, head of the Finnish central bank, urged the ECB to start raising rates in July. Other ECB members are also calling for rate hikes, and it appears inevitable that the ECB will have to join the Fed and BoE and tighten monetary policy. Another headwind for Germany (and the euro) is the war in Ukraine, with no diplomatic solution in sight. The war has taken a significant toll on Germany’s economy and there are concerns that a complete ban on Russian oil would tip Germany into a recession.  The G-7 commitment to “phase out” Russian oil is a compromise that will allow eurozone nations to find alternative sources as they cut back on Russian oil imports. In the eurozone, the combination of rising prices and weaker economic growth has raised fears of stagnation and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. The euro fell below the 1.05 line earlier in May and EUR/USD risk is tilted downwards, with parity a real possibility. . EUR/USD Technical There is weak resistance at 1.0557. Above, there is resistance at 1.0632 1.0473 is providing support, followed by 1.0398   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
German inflation comes down as government measures bite

Is There Any Chance Of Australian Dollar (AUD) Strengthening? Australian dollar falls below 70 | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:28
Aussie tumbles on risk aversion The Australian dollar is stable on Tuesday, after starting the week with a nasty drop of 1.83%. AUD/USD has dropped to its lowest levels since July 2020, as it trades around 0.6970. Risk aversion remains high, as investors see dark clouds all around. Soaring inflation, supply chain disruptions, a hawkish Fed, the Ukraine war and a slowdown in China have boosted the US dollar and sent risk currencies like the Australian dollar sharply lower. China, the world’s number two economy, is stubbornly sticking to its zero-Covid policy, putting hundreds of millions of residents under lockdown and disrupting factory production and global supply chains. Perhaps no country is feeling the deterioration in China more than Australia, as the Asian giant is Australia’s largest trading partner. Last month, the IMF recently cut China’s growth forecast to 4.4%, down from 4.8%. The property sector hasn’t been in the headlines lately, but the severe leverage problems which have affected huge developers haven’t gone away and remain a real threat to economic stability. The troubles in China are a serious headwind for the struggling Australian dollar. On the economic front, NAB Business Confidence slowed to 10 in April, down from 16 in March. Retail Sales for Q1 came in 1.2% QoQ, better than the forecast of 1.0%. We’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Wednesday. The index has posted five straight declines, pointing to prolonged consumer pessimism about the economy. The markets will be keeping a close eye on US inflation, which will be released on Wedneday. CPI surged to 8.5% YoY in March, the forecast for April stands at 8.1%. If inflation does ease, we’re bound to see plenty of headlines proclaiming that “inflation has peaked” and the US dollar could lose ground. It would be premature to argue that inflation is on its way down based on just one CPI reading. Furthermore, long-term inflation expectations have increased (3.7% to 3.9%), according to a NY Fed survey on Monday. True, one-year inflation expectations decreased (6.6 to 6.3%), but that won’t change the Fed’s aggressive tune. . AUD/USD Technical There is support at 0.6887 and 0.6745 0.6981 is a weak resistance line, followed by 0.7123 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Rates Spark: The hawks are circling | ING Economics

Oanda: "Japanese yen hits 20-year low"

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 00:46
The Japanese yen is slightly lower at the start of the week. In the Asian session, the yen fell as low as 131.35, which marked a 20-year low. Will BoJ step in to defend the yen? The speed of the Japanese yen’s depreciation has been remarkable, falling 12% against the US dollar in just three months. The formula for the yen’s slide has been relatively simple – US Treasuries have been moving higher, while the BoJ has fiercely defended its yield control curve, capping the 10-year yield at 0.25%. Since the yen is extremely sensitive to the US/Japan rate differential, the dollar has pummelled the yen. Moving forward, the BoJ isn’t about to change its stance and allow JGB yields to increase. The central bank is committed to an ultra-loose monetary policy and has been using debt financing, with the government’s debt currently at a staggering 250% above GDP. This means it becomes a huge expense for the government if JGB yields move upwards. US Treasury yields continue to move higher, with the 10-year yield inching higher on Monday to 3.13%. The risk on USD/JPY remains tilted upwards, but the question is whether the BoJ will continue to sit on the sidelines and allow the yen to sink. Does the BoJ have a ‘line in the sand’ when it comes to the exchange rate? There had been talk of the 130-level triggering intervention, but that hasn’t happened, as the BoJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) have limited themselves to jawboning that they are monitoring the situation and are deeply worried about the yen’s rapid descent. According to a BoFA note on Monday, 140 is a key line that could trigger yen intervention. The 140-level has held since 1998, and if breached, the MoF could respond and buy yen in order to stabilize the currency. In the meantime, the yen will likely continue to lose ground, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue to tighten at an aggressive pace. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY faces resistance at 1.3136 and 1.3218 There is support at 1.3000 and 1.2918 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Oil edges higher, gold falls

Oanda: "Euro steady after G-7 pledge oil ban"

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 00:43
G-7 commits to ban Russian oil The euro has started the week quietly, although there have important developments in the West’s sanction battle with Russia. On Sunday, G-7 leaders pledged to phase out or ban the import of Russian oil. As the war in Ukraine continues, the West has ratcheted up its sanctions against Moscow. Some European countries, such as heavy-weight Germany, have been reluctant to embrace an outright ban on Russian oil, since 25% of Germany’s oil comes from Russia. The war has taken a toll on the eurozone economy, and there are concerns that a complete ban on Russian oil would tip Germany into a recession.  The G-7 commitment to “phase out” Russian oil is a compromise that will allow eurozone nations to find alternative sources as they cut back on Russian oil imports. Despite the slowdown in eurozone growth, inflation in the bloc isn’t showing any signs of easing. In April, CPI remained at a record 7.5% YoY, edging up from 7.4% in March. The combination of rising prices and weaker economic growth has raised fears of stagnation and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. This has taken a toll on the euro, which has plunged around 14% since June 1st. The dovish ECB has been slow to respond to the new landscape in Europe, although there are more calls within the ECB to raise rates at least up to zero. On Monday, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn, who is head of the Finnish central bank, weighed in and urged the ECB to start raising rates in July. ECB President Lagarde cannot afford to continue ignoring soaring inflation and the ECB will have to hike rates in the coming months. . EUR/USD Technical There is weak resistance at 1.0557. Above, there is resistance at 1.0632 1.0473 is providing support, followed by 1.0398 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for June 23, 2022

US Dollar Isn't Going To Stop!? (USD/CAD) Canadian dollar extends losses

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.05.2022 14:33
The US dollar continues to post gains and is in positive territory at the start of the week. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2934 in the European session, up 0.20% on the day. Canada unemployment drops Canada’s April employment report on Friday was steady but not spectacular. The economy added a modest 15.3 thousand jobs, lower than the estimate and well below the March release of 72.5 thousand. The labour market may well have reached its limit, after all the strong gains we’ve seen during the Covid recovery. The number of job vacancies remains high and the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%, both of which reflect a robust labour market and a shrinking labour pool. The tightening job market is putting further pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at a faster pace than expected. The benchmark rate is currently at an even 1.00%, after the 0.50% hike in April. Governor Macklem has hinted that he could deliver more 0.50% hikes and we could see rates rise to 2% by the end of Q2. Macklem has signalled the rate-hike cycle could be very aggressive, saying that he will lift rates above 3% if necessary, in order to beat back spiralling inflation. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure, with USD/CAD setting its sights on the symbolic 1.30 line. The Fed is also showing its hawkishness, having just delivered its own oversize 0.50% hike last week. This move was priced in by the markets, but the rate hike and the expectations of more on the way have provided plenty of wind for the sails of the US dollar. USD/CAD hit 1.2950 earlier today, its highest level since December 21st 2020. For USD/CAD, risk is tilted to the upside, and I expect the pair to put further pressure on the 1.30 line. . USD/CAD Technical There is support at 1.2846 and 1.2777 Resistance at 1.2979 is protecting the 1.30 level. Above, there is support at 1.3048 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Asian markets higher as Wall Street climbs

Is JPY Idle? British Pound To US Dollar (GBPUSD) And EUR/USD Have Decreased. "Risk-aversion lifts (USD) US dollar in Asia" | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.05.2022 12:54
China concerns boost the US dollar The US dollar booked some modest gains post-Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, but the dollar index resistance zone at 104.00 held once again. The dollar index finished 0.11% higher at 103.66 having traded in a wide range intra-day. The risk aversion China slowdown price action seen in equities has spilt into currency markets today, lifting the US dollar after US 10-year yields closed comfortably above 3.0% on Friday. The dollar index has risen 0.34% to 104.00 and is, once again, making a determined test of resistance here. Support at 102.50 remains intact. A close above 104.00 will signal rapid gains to 105.00 and in the bigger picture, the technical picture still says a multi-month rally to above 120.00 is possible. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have fallen by 0.35% today to 1.0508 and 1.2290. EUR/USD support at 1.0470 is in jeopardy, while GBP/USD is threatening the Friday lows of 1.2275, having closed on support at 1.2325 last week. EUR/USD rallies above 1.0650 will be challenging to sustain now, with the 45-year trendline at 1.0800 now distant. Similarly, GBP/USD will run into headwinds between 1.2400 and 1.2500. The technical picture signals much lower levels for both and a formal declaration of war from Mr Putin against Ukraine today will signal a test of 1.0300 and 1.2000 in the coming days, if not sooner. USD/JPY has crept higher over the past few sessions, rising 0.30% today to 130.95. With the Bank of Japan showing no signs of adjusting its 0.25% JGB yield cap, and US rates continuing to climb as the Fed gets busy fighting inflation, downside pressure on the yen seems inevitable. Support lies at 128.50, but a rally by USD/JPY through 131.35 sets the stage for a move to the 135.00 area. Plummeting stock markets in Asia appear to be prompting heavy outflows from Asian currencies today, with USD/CNH and USD/CNY over 0.50%, as are the USD/THB and USD/INR. Elsewhere across the region, the US dollar has booked 0.30% plus gains versus the IDR, SGD, MYR, and KRW. Chinese officials have still not made overt noises about the pace of the CNY sell-off to 6.7050, despite setting a slightly stronger fixing today. USD/INR has traded at all-time highs around 77.255 today and has fallen around 1.80% since the RBI’s last week. That does leave the RBI in somewhat of a bind, and it is an issue the Bank Indonesia and others around Asia will be feeling sooner, rather than later. In the first instance, thanks to Asia’s huge FX reserves, I expect some judicious “smoothing” to be the first strategy. Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea have already taken this route, I suspect. If international sentiment continues to fall and the US dollar continues to gain, those noises may get louder, but ultimately, regional central banks will fight a losing battle if China remains comfortable with yuan depreciation. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
British pound (GBP/USD). Sterling falls below 1.23

British pound (GBP/USD). Sterling falls below 1.23!

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.05.2022 12:22
The British pound has stabilized on Friday, after sustaining huge losses a day earlier. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2342 in the European session, down 0.11%. Earlier, the currency fell to 1.2276, its lowest level since June 2020.   BoE warning chills the pound The BoE dutifully raised interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, but the market reception was a chilly one. GBP/USD plummeted a staggering 2.21% on the day. Investors gave a thumbs-down to the grim message from the central bank, as a fourth straight rate hike in as many meetings became an afterthought. The BoE’s growth forecast for 2022 remained at 3.75%, but it slashed the 2023 projection from 1.25% to -0.25%. At the same time, the central revised upwards its inflation forecast for Q4 to above 10%, up from 8% in an April forecast. The ‘double-whammy’ of higher rates and a deteriorating economic outlook sent the British pound reeling after the BoE meeting. The rate decision was a 6-3 vote, with all three dissenters voting in favor of a 0.50% rate hike. This surprised the markets, which had expected an 8-1 vote. There is a deep split in the MPC, with Governor Bailey acknowledging after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC. Such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence in the markets. In its policy summary, the BoE signalled that more rate hikes are coming, and also dropped the word “modest” to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets were not impressed  – the 0.25% was modest, and with the BoE warning about 10% inflation, it’s clear that it will take quite some time before rate hikes do the job and wrestle down sizzling inflation. The US dollar initially lost ground after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, as investors seized on Fed Chair Powell’s statement that the Fed was not considering a 0.75% rate hike. The greenback has since bounced back, as the markets digest that the Fed plans to be aggressive with further 0.50% hikes in its battle to bring down inflation.   GBP/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719 GBP/USD tested support at 1.2272 in the Asian session. Below there is support at 1.2179           This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) falls right back down

New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) falls right back down

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.05.2022 10:08
The New Zealand dollar has reversed directions on Thursday and is sharply lower. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6418, down a massive 1.90% on the day.   US dollar rebounds after FOMC  The New Zealand dollar is showing plenty of volatility. NZD/USD surged 1.76% on Wednesday but has coughed up all of those gains today. The US dollar lost a step after the FOMC meeting, even though the Fed hiked rates by 0.50%, which was the largest rate increase in 20 years. The Fed continues to show a hawkish stance. The rate-hike cycle will remain aggressive, with Fed Chair Powell signalling at yesterday’s meeting that the Fed will deliver further 0.50% hikes at the June and July meetings. Yet the markets chose to focus on Powell’s statement that a 0.75% hike was not being “actively considered”. Although Powell didn’t rule out such a move, the markets were nonetheless elated, sending equities up and the US dollar broadly lower. It didn’t take long for the US dollar to recover, particularly against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Perhaps as significant as the Fed’s rate hike was its announcement to implement quantitative tightening, after years of quantitative easing as part of its accommodative policy. Starting in June, the Fed will sell USD 45 billion/mth in assets, which will climb to USD 95 billion/mth in September. The Fed is betting that it can curb inflation through rate hikes and a balance sheet reduction, while ensuring a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession. The New Zealand labour market remains robust, as confirmed by the Q1 employment report. The unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.2%, matching expectations. Significantly, wage growth, which climbed to 3.1% YoY, its highest level since 2008. The surge in wage growth is sure to raise pressure on the central bank to deliver another 0.50% rate hike at the May 25th meeting, which would bring the Official Cash Rate to 2.0%.     NZD/USD Technical 0.6391 is under strong pressure in support, as NZD/USD is sharply lower. Below, there is support at 0.6325 There is resistance at 0.6519 and 0.6648       This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Pound (GBP) takes a tumble after BoE hike

Pound (GBP) takes a tumble after BoE hike

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.05.2022 09:56
The British pound is fading badly on Thursday. GBP/USD has dropped a staggering 2.15% today and has fallen below the 1.24 line for the first time since July 2020. After the BoE decision, market focus has shifted to the elections in Northern Ireland later today. A Sinn Fein victory could weigh on the wobbly pound.   BoE hike fails to impress markets The BoE raised interest rates for a fourth straight time since December, bringing the Official Bank Rate to 1.00%, its highest since 2009. Yet the market reception to the BoE move was decidedly chilly, as the pound has plunged almost 2% today. Why the sour reaction from the markets? The 0.25% was a modest move and it’s questionable if it will have much impact on soaring inflation. In March, CPI rose to 7.0%, up from 6.2%, and the BoE has warned that inflation could surpass 10%. The modest rate hike passed by a vote of 6-3, surprising the markets which had expected an 8-1 vote. Two MPC members called for a 0.50% hike, which reveals a sharp split within the MPC. Governor Bailey admitted after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC, and such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence amongst investors. The BoE cannot be blamed for not being aggressive – it is well into its rate-hike cycle and the policy summary noted that “some degree of further tightening in monetary policy may still be appropriate in the coming months”. In addition, the BoE dropped the word “modest” to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets appeared to focus on the split vote and the warning from the BoE that the country could face a sharp economic downturn, and the thumbs-down response has sent the pound sharply lower. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates at its meeting by a half-point, the largest increase in 20 years. The Fed signalled that it will deliver additional half-point hikes in June and July, with Fed Chair Powell stating that the FOMC was not “actively considering” a 0.75% increase. The Fed is also implementing quantitative tightening with a reduction in the balance sheet. Starting in June, the Fed will sell USD 45 billion/mth in assets, which will rise to USD 95 billion/mth in September. In sharp contrast to the BoE’s hike, the financial markets reacted positively, as investors believe that the Fed’s rate hikes can curb inflation while ensuring a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession.     GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719 There is support at 1.2272 and 1.2179           This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Euro slips after soft German data

Euro (EUR) slips after soft German data

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.05.2022 15:45
The euro is under pressure and is trading at 1.0557, down 0.58% on the day. This follows a spectacular session on Wednesday, when EUR/USD jumped 0.94%, its best one-day showing since March.   German Factory Orders slide German factory orders plunged 4.7% MoM in March, after a decline of 0.8% in February. The sharp drop caught the markets off guard, as the consensus estimate stood at -1.1%. The weak release reflects ongoing difficulties for the manufacturing sector, which is grappling with supply chain disruptions and higher costs. The harsh Covid lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate the situation, as almost half of German companies rely on imports from China, according to an Ifo survey.   Germany’s economy will have another headache to deal with, as the EU has confirmed that it will terminate all imports of Russian oil by the end of the year. Germany had originally opposed this move, since it imports 25% of its oil requirements from Russia. The German government is now saying that it can manage without Russian oil, but it’s clear that the move will boost inflation, dampen growth and could even push the economy into a recession.   There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve meeting, as the central bank raised rates by a half-point, the largest increase in 20 years. The Fed signalled that it will deliver additional half-point hikes in June and July, with Fed Chair Powell stating that the FOMC was not “actively considering” a 0.75% increase. This news sent the US dollar broadly lower, although I expect the greenback to resume its upswing without much difficulty.   The Fed is also implementing quantitative tightening with a reduction in the balance sheet. Starting in June, the Fed will sell USD 45 billion/mth in assets, which will climb to USD 95 billion/mth in September. The financial markets reacted positively to the Fed’s moves, as investors believe that the Fed’s rate hikes can curb inflation while ensuring a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession.     EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0612 and 1.0699 1.0408 is providing support, followed by 1.0321       This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.05.2022 15:30
Oil prices leap on EU oil ban Oil prices leapt higher overnight as markets digested the impact of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. Additionally, the OPEC+ JTC is indicating that there will be no change in the monthly schedule of production increases, with some members in fact noting that China’s demand has slumped. Brent crude rose by 4.05% to USD 111.10 overnight, with WTI climbing by 3.90% to USD 107.55 a barrel. ​ In Asia, Brent and WTI have had a muted session, adding just 0.50% each to USD 110.60 and USD 108.10 respectively. In the bigger picture, Brent crude is still in a broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, and WTI in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 range. Only a weekly close above or below those levels signals a new directional move. Overall, we remain in a situation where the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the inability of OPEC+ to even meet their pre-agreed quotas is keeping spot prices tight, while China’s covid-zero-induced slowdown is acting to cap price increases. With the sanction situation on Russia escalating, and with Russian retaliation not out of the question, I believe the risks of the Ukraine conflict becoming more fully priced into energy markets are increasing.   Gold rallies on a weaker US dollar Gold rose sharply overnight as the US dollar plummeted post-FOMC after the Fed hiked by 0.50% as expected, and eased concerns around future 0.75% hikes. Gold rose 0.70% to USD 1881.50 an ounce, before continuing its rally in Asia, gaining an impressive 1.10% to USD 1901.65 today. The move in Asia is unusual, even more so because other asset classes in Asia are not showing a strong continuation of the US dollar sell-off seen overnight, although Asian currencies have rallied modestly in trading today. I suspect the buying is coming out of China as that market had returned from holidays today. From a technical perspective, gold reclaimed the 100-day moving average at USD 1881.00 overnight, which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1850.00 and USD 1835.00 an ounce. Gold faces resistance at USD 1920.00 and USD 1960.00 an ounce. It is too early to say that gold prices have turned a corner. If the US dollar correction lower continues, then gold can certainly continue rallying. But if the US dollar sell-off runs out of steam, then gold will struggle to maintain gains above USD 1900.00 an ounce.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
This Week: UK GDP And NATO Summit! Eurozone CPI Will Be Released On Friday! | Oanda

(USD/CAD) "Canadian dollar eyes GDP" - Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.04.2022 15:32
The US dollar is broadly lower on Friday, as the greenback takes a pause after strong gains. The Canadian dollar has extended its gains, as USD/CAD is trading at 1.2740, down 0.46% on the day. Canada’s GDP expected to accelerate The week wraps up with Canada’s GDP report for February. The consensus stands at a respectable 0.8% (MoM), after a small gain of 0.2% in January. The economy has been performing well has the covid pandemic subsides – perhaps too well, according to BoC Governor Macklem. On Thursday, Macklem went straight to the point, telling a Senate Committee that the economy is overheating, and “we need to cool growth, to cool inflation”. He added that he planned to raise interest rates in order to achieve these goals. Like the US, Canada has been hit hard by spiralling inflation, which rose to 6.7% in March, its highest level since 1991. Like the Fed, the BoC is sending out hawkish signals to the markets. The BoC raised rates by a half-point earlier this month and has hinted that it could deliver another such increase at the June 1st meeting. The BoC’s aggressive tightening cycle will allow it to keep in sync with the Fed. This means that the Canadian dollar won’t lose ground due to the Fed’s tightening. The Canadian dollar is also benefitting from oil prices, which remain above the 100-dollar mark and could rise if Europe bans oil imports from Russia. The risk is to the upside for the Canadian dollar, although things can, of course, change in a hurry. The FOMC meets next week, and all signs are that the Fed will deliver a supersize 0.50% rate hike. This is not surprising, given that inflation is galloping at 30-year highs. Investors will be focusing on the tone of the rate statement and will be looking for hints about further rate increases. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has broken below support at 1.2795, a monthly line. 1.2632 is the next support line There is resistance at 1.2899 and 1.3071 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Equities retraced amid weak US consumer confidence and near completion of quarter-end rebalancing

Oanda: "Euro rebounds on strong GDP, inflation data"

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.04.2022 14:24
The euro has bounced back on Friday with strong gains, ending a nasty 6-day losing streak. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0565, up 0.64% on the day. German GDP up 4.0% It has been a rough road for the euro, which hit a 5-year low this week as it broke below the 1.05 line. We’re seeing a correction today, primarily due to solid GDP data out of Germany and the Eurozone. German GDP rose 4.0% in Q1 YoY, above the estimate of 3.8% and well ahead of the 1.8% gain in the Q4 of 2020. Eurozone GDP rose to 5.0% on an annualized basis, matching the forecast and above the prior release of 4.7%. The euro also received a boost as Eurozone CPI is expected to hit 7.5% YoY in April, up from 7.4%. Despite today’s positive data, there are dark clouds on the horizon, which will more than likely send the euro back to its losing ways. France and Italy, the largest economies after Germany in the eurozone, both recorded negative growth of -0.2% QoQ in Q1, while Germany eked out a 0.2% gain. This points to the heavy toll that the Ukraine war has taken on the eurozone economies, and the war could certainly intensify, with Russia making a push in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. There is also uncertainty surrounding the sanctions against Russia. On the one hand, there is talk of the EU banning oil imports from Russia, which would badly hurt the Russian economy but also dampen growth in Western Europe. At the same time, there are reports that some major European energy companies have accepted Moscow’s demands to pay for gas and oil in roubles. This could lead to a collision between the companies and European governments, which could turn into another headwind for the struggling euro. As if the euro doesn’t have enough on its plate, the hawkish pivot by the Fed has widened the US/Europe rate differential and sent the euro tumbling in recent weeks. With the Fed poised to raise rates by 0.50% next week and further super-size rate hikes on the table, the euro appears on track to drop to 1.03, and parity has become a realistic possibility. . EUR/USD Technical 1.0553 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0411 There is resistance at 1.0657 and 1.0728 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Asian equities move higher | Oanda

(USD/JPY) Oanda: "Japanese yen stabilizes around 130"

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.04.2022 11:49
Another week has meant more losses for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY punched above the symbolic 130 line for the first time in 20 years. How badly is the yen doing? The currency last posted a winning week in February, and USD/JPY has soared 6.86% in the month of April. Not a good report card. The yen’s downswing has been sharper than expected, as USD/JPY has broken through resistance at 130 much more quickly than expected. The rapid movement in the exchange rate has drawn the usual jawboning from the BoJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF), but aside from strong rhetoric, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any intervention with the aim of propping up the battered yen. On Thursday, while the MoF said that the yen’s descent was “extremely worrying”, BoJ Governor Kuroda reiterated that a weak yen was good for Japan’s economy. BoJ focused on yield curve control The BoJ doesn’t want to see the yen continue to plummet, but its focus is on stimulating the economy, not on the exchange rate. We’ve seen the BoJ show its determination to protect its yield curve control, as the Bank continues to offer to make unlimited purchases of 10-year JGPs in order to cap yields at 0.25%. The BoJ will continue its ultra-accommodative policy, even though this will put it out of sync with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, which are tightening policy in order to combat soaring inflation. If the price for this policy is a falling yen, so be it, in the minds of BoJ policymakers. If there is a “line in the sand” when it comes to the yen’s value, any intervention is likely to come from the MoF rather than the BoJ. After decades of deflation, Japan is finally experiencing some inflation, but at much lower levels than in the US and elsewhere. Until inflationary pressures increase, the BoJ will have a free hand to pursue its ultra-loose policy, and that could spell more trouble for the yen. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has broken below support at 129.89. Next, there is support at 1.2807 There is resistance at 1.3122 and 1.3304 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.