Daily Currency Forecast - 26.10.2021
Jason Sen 26.10.2021 13:08
AUDUSD longs at good support at 7475/55 worked again on Monday with a low for the day at 7456 & a bounce to our target of 7490/7500, as we establish a sideways trend after Thursday's bearish engulfing candle remains a sell signal for this week.
NZDUSD longs at 7140/30 worked on Friday & again on Monday as we look for a target of 7180/90 for profit taking.
AUDJPY saw a high for the rally at Thursday's high of 8624 as predicted leaving a bearish engulfing candle for a sell signal. The pair was expected to test first support at 8460/40 ut missed it by only 12 pips.
AUDUSD longs at good support at 7475/55 work again on the bounce to 7500/05 for profit taking. Gains are likely to be limited but a break above 7515 allows a recovery to 7530/35. Strong resistance at 7555/65 should be a big challenge. It is unlikely we will reach this far but if we do, try shorts with stops above 7580.
Longs at 7475/55 again today stop below 7445 (so the risk is very small). A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7410/7390, perhaps as far as 7360/50.
NZDUSD longs at first support at 7140/30 could work again targeting 7180/90 for profit taking. Gains are likely to be limited now. If we retest 7200/7220, try shorts with stops above 7240. BUT be ready to sell again at very strong resistance at 7255/75. Stop above 7300.
Longs at first support at 7140/30 must stops below 7120 so the risk is very small. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7090/80 probably as far as 7040/30.
AUDJPY meets first support at 8460/40. A bounce targets 8500 perhaps as far as 8540/50. I would sell at 8620/40 with stops above 8660.
A break below 8420 is the next sell signal targeting 8370 & 8345/35. USDJPY found support at 113.40/30.
EURJPY meets a selling opportunity at 132.20/30 with stops above 132.40.
CADJPY formed bearish engulfing candle for a sell signal on Thursday with a high for the day at first resistance at 9240/60 on Friday.
Update daily at 06:30 GMT
USDJPY first resistance at 113.80/95. Shorts need stops above 114.05. A break higher can retest last week's high at 114.50/70. Shorts need stops above 114.80.
First support at 113.40/30. Longs need stops below 113.20. A break lower target 113.00/112.90 & 112.60/50.
EURJPY sell at 132.20/30 with stops above 132.40. An unexpected break higher meets resistance at 132.70/80.
Shorts at 132.20/30 target 131.90 then minor support at 131.60/50 which could see a low for the day. Further losses however target 131.00.
CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 worked perfectly as we broke 9200 for a sell signal targeting 9175 (hit on Friday for a potential 70 pip profit). We are expected to hit our buying opportunity at 9120/00 eventually with stops below 9090.
Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 9240/60. Sell at 9280/9300 with stops above 9320.
EURUSD retests support at 1.1620/00 but it is difficult to trade the pair as the daily ranges are small & we are mostly trading sideways.
USDCAD trying a break above minor resistance at 1.2370/80 but we are mostly trading sideways for the last few days.
GBPCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.7050/70 worked all last week for scalping opportunities so we keep trying this trade until we are stopped. A break higher is a good buy signal.
Update daily at 06:30 GMT
EURUSD longs at the buying opportunity at 1.1620/00 target first resistance at 1.1665/75. Next we look for a test of minor resistance at 1.1690/99. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.1720.
Be ready to sell a break below 1.1580 targeting 1.1540/30. A break below 1.1520 is an important medium term sell signal.
USDCAD starting to build a recovery as hoped, but it is a slow process as we look for a test of first resistance at 1.2420/40. If you try shorts here stop above 1.2450 but look for a target of 1.2370 for profit taking. Be ready to buy a break above 1.2450 targeting 1.2510/30.
Support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs need stops below 1.2270 for a sell signal.
GBPCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.7050/70 must stop above 1.7090. A break higher is an important buy signal targeting 1.7155/75 & 1.7195, perhaps as far as 1.7240/50.
Minor support at 1.6950/40. Further losses are likely eventually to 1.6910/1.6890. Ultimately we are looking for the target of 1.6870/60, perhaps as far as support at 1.6800/1.6780.
GBPUSD high for the week exactly at resistance at 1.3835/55 with longs at first support at 1.3740/30 working so we trade this range & wait for a breakout.
EURGBP remains very much in a sideways trend ranging from 8420 up to 8460/70.
GBPNZD bounces around from important support at 1.9180/70 to resistance at 1.9295/1.9305 for a 100 pip scalping profit. A high for the day in fact so shorts also worked perfectly on the slide to 1.9180/70. An easy 200 pips on 2 trades.
Update daily at 07:00 GMT
GBPUSD held support at 1.3740/30 on Thursday & Friday & again on Monday. Be ready to sell a break below 1.3720 targeting minor support at 1.3670/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.3600/1.3580.
Any longs at support at 1.3740/30 targets 1.3790. Strong resistance at 1.3835/55 remains key to direction in severely overbought conditions. Try shorts with stops above 1.3875. A break above here is a medium term buy signal.
EURGBP meets strong resistance at 8475/85, stop above 8495.
On the downside we have the 2 week low at 8420 holding then important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395 in severely oversold conditions. Longs need stops below 8380.
GBPNZD longs at important support at 1.9180/70 certainly worked last week as we retest this level again this morning. First target for longs here again today is 1.9240/60 then resistance at 1.9295/05 for profit taking on any remaining longs. Shorts here today need stops above 1.9315. A break higher meets a selling opportunity at 1.9370/90 with stops above 1.9410.
A break below support at 1.9180/70 is more likely on the next test, targeting 1.9110/00.
Bitcoin trying a recovery but failure to beat 64000 keeps the outlook negative & risks the formation of a head & shoulders sell signal. A break below the neckline at 60000 will confirm.
Ripple remains in a sideways trend holding support at 10700/750 & longs working on the bounce to 11250.
Ethereum made a high for the day exactly at the all time high at 4355/85. The resistance was clearly rejected with prices unchanged on the day as we collapsed to 4010. THIS LEAVES IMPORTANT DOUBLE TOP RISK.
Some video analysis: https://youtu.be/ZGDSbDzQEtc
Update daily at 07:00 GMT
Bitcoin shorts at 62500/63000 must stop above 64000. Only above here do I see bulls back in the game. Prices are likely then to push higher towards 65000/500 & then retest the all time high at 66500/67000. A break higher is a buy signal initially targeting 69500/70000.
First support at 60700/500. Longs need stops below 60000. A break below here is a very important sell signal initially targeting 58000. I do not see this as a strong support. A break below here over the weekend is a longer term sell signal initially targeting 57000/56500. I am talking crash conditions because we will be building a huge bull trap. A break below 54000 is the next sell signal.
Ripple longs at first support at 10700/750 re-target 11000, 11400 & 11600. Expect strong resistance at 12020/12100. A break higher can target 11300/11400.
First support at 10700/750. Most important support of the week at 10250/10200. Holding here keeps bulls in control. A break below here is an important sell signal initially targeting less important 9700/9600. On a break below I would expected significant losses. Initially we should target 8600. This may hold on the first test & we could even see a decent bounce. However I would be a seller at resistance on this bounce, expecting the support to break eventually for another significant sell signal.
Ethereum we have a double top sell signal. However we have unexpectedly recovered back above 4000/3980 & can perhaps retest the all time high at 4355/85. A break above here is required to eliminate the double top sell signal risk now & will initially target 4500.
First support at 4000/3980 but longs need stops below 3900. A break lower meets better support at 3770/30. A decent bounce from here is expected, perhaps as far as 3950. Longs need stops below 3670. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 3570/50 the strong support at 3380/40. Longs need stops below 3300.
Emini S&P December beat the all important all time high at 4545/50 for a buy signal triggering further slow gains this week.
Nasdaq December bounced from just 3 ticks above first support at 15300/280 & made a high for the day exactly at the next target of 15470/490 at the end of the week. This level was beaten yesterday as we target the very important all time high at 15650/700.
Emini Dow Jones December making a clear break above the all time high at 35540/550 for a buy signal.
Update daily at 07:00 GMT.
Emini S&P beats the all important all time high at 4545/50 to kill the double top sell signal & trigger a buy signal. We are looking for 4580/85 today. Above 4590 targets 4625/35 but a high for the week is likely here.
First support at 4550/40. Longs need stops below 4530.
Nasdaq December now targets the very important all time high at 15650/700. Rejection here forms a potential double top sell signal.
First support at 15490/460. Longs need stops below 15400.
Emini Dow Jones December breaking higher for a buy signal targeting 35800/850 & 36000/100, eventually as far as 36250/280.
First support at 35550/500. Longs need stops below 35450.