InstaForex Analysis

InstaForex Analysis

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The Cable Market (GBP/USD) Is Likely To Show Signs Of A Bullish Trend

The Cable Market (GBP/USD) Is Likely To Show Signs Of A Bullish Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 14:26
Overview : The GBP/USD pair is trading sharply higher against the U.S. Dollar at the mid-session on the heels of the last month jobs report that missed expectations. The single currency soared, and the greenback weakened after the U.S. Labor Department said non-farm payrolls rose by 1.1337 last month, well short of the 1.1033 estimate. Moving averages continue to give a very strong buy signal with all of the 50 and 100 EMAs successively above slower lines and below the price. The 50 SMA has extended further above the 100 this week. Support from MAs comes initially from the value area between the 50 and 100 EMAs. The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.1033 at the start of Sept. 2022 before taking another leg higher to 1.1337. The pair briefly breached parity on 04 October, as markets reacted to US inflation figures. That was followed by an immediate rebound that sent the GBP/USD pair back above the 1.1214 level. An alternative scenario is fixing above MA 100 H1 (1.1214), followed by growth to 1.1300 (high of the American session). The GBP/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.1033 yesterday. The level of 1.1033 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 50. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.13033 resistance turned support holds, even in case of another drop. This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. Buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio 1.1033 with the first target at the level of 1.1459. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.1459. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.1459) to test it. The pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.1500. It might be noted that the level of 1.1500 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top in coming hours.   Relevance up to 14:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295407
The Bullish Trend Is Currently Very Strong For The EUR/USD Pair

The Bullish Trend Is Currently Very Strong For The EUR/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 14:21
Overview : The bullish trend is currently very strong for the EUR/USD pair. As long as the price remains above the support levels of 0.9764 and 0.9823, you could try to take advantage of the bullish rally. Over the past week, the price of the EUR/USD pair has been plummeting with strong bullish momentum, resulting in a break above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages lines on the daily timeframe, indicating that the bulls are presently in control of the market. The euro's strong gains against the US dollar have continued this week ahead of the NFP. The common currency reached a high of more than two years earlier this morning GMT at 0.9900. Signs of progress toward new fiscal stimulus in the USA and the dollar's general weakness have been key factors despite weak economic data affecting both currencies. This technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair looks at the one-hour chart. The resistance of the EUR/USD pair has broken; it turned to support around the price of 0.9823 last week. Thereby, forming a strong support at 0.9764. The direction of the EUR/USD pair into the close this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 0.9823 and 0.9950. The EUR/USD pair climbed above the level of 0.9823 before it started a downside correction. The EUR/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 0.9764, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for three times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.9764 because the trend is still showing strength above it. The level of 0.9764 coincides with the golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement) which is acting as major support today. Another thought; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 60. At the same time, the RSI is still signaling an upward trend, as the trend is still showing strong above the moving average (100), this suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. The first bullish objective is located at 0.9904. The bullish momentum would be revived by a break in this resistance (0.9904). Buyers would then use the next resistance located at 0.9950 as an objective. Crossing it would then enable buyers to target 0.9950. Be careful, given the powerful bullish rally underway, excesses could lead to a short-term rebound. If this is the case, remember that trading against the trend may be riskier. It would seem more appropriate to wait for a signal indicating reversal of the trend. Accordingly, the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend In other words, rebuy orders are recommended above 0.9950 level with their third target at the level of 1 USD. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9904 and further to the level of 0.9950. The price of 1 USD will act as a strong resistance and retest the psychological price again. On the other hand, if a break happens at the support of 0.9764, then this scenario may become invalidated. This content is for information purposes only and in no way constitutes investment advice or any incentive whatsoever to buy or sell financial instruments. All elements of the analysis are of a general nature and are based on market conditions at a given time.     Relevance up to 13:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295395
Ethereum Market Is Showing Bullish Signals

Ethereum Market Is Showing Bullish Signals

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 13:32
The situation in the crypto market has been difficult since the end of August. However, there are more and more reasons to expect a local upward trend in cryptocurrencies on the market. And there is no doubt that ETH will be one of the main beneficiaries of the bullish move. The main reason for the likely upward movement of the crypto market is the start of a protracted correction of the US dollar index. In addition, there were rumors on the financial markets about a possible curtailment of the Fed's aggressive policy. Market players attribute this to the European crisis and the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse. If the combination of these factors works, then the cryptocurrency and Ethereum market is waiting for a local upward trend and a gradual fading of the liquidity crisis. For the main altcoin, this is especially good in light of recent negative events. Negative background around Ethereum Recently, an article was released where the future of Ethereum is being questioned after the Merge update. The authors believe that the growing number of competitors and the parallel increase in the number of ETH fork are diverting significant investment from the altcoin. After the merge, the centralization of Ethereum and the percentage of transaction censorship also increased. Due to the decrease in trading activity, the deflationary mechanism of ETH also does not work properly. All this leads to a decrease in investment in the main altcoin and its gradual extinction. There is some truth in the study, but it is incorrect to say that ETH has reached its peak and is moving to the bottom. Even aside from the liquidity issues due to the crypto winter, there are other factors pointing to Ethereum's potential. The Merge update was only 55% complete and there are several important updates ahead of the altcoin before all the algorithms work as they should. ETH/USD Analysis In addition, the approaching bullish momentum will show how Ethereum is ready for growth. Over the past day, the asset has risen in price by 4% and as of October 4, the altcoin is trading around $1,350. The coin managed to gain a foothold above $1,320, which allowed it to build on the bullish success. In the next two days, ETH/USD will begin to consolidate above the $1,350 level for further movement towards $1,430. Most likely, there will be a local rebound here due to high sales volumes. Everything will depend on the trading activity in the asset network and its dynamics in the coming days. Ethereum on-chain activity showed a powerful surge following the results of yesterday's trading day. As of October 4, address activity and transaction volumes are below average. At the same time, technical metrics continue to grow, which indicates a dangerous divergence for growth. While the on-chain numbers are declining, the RSI and stochastic on the daily timeframe maintain a strong upward trend. If on-chain metrics do not show a growing interest in Ethereum after the opening of the US markets, then the growth of ETH will be unjustified. It is also important to note that a "triangle" pattern is forming on the daily chart. In a bearish scenario, a breakout of the pattern will bring the price down to the $1,2000–$1,250 area. If buying activity recovers to yesterday's volumes, the price will continue to move towards $1,430. Conclusions Ethereum is showing bullish signals that do not correlate with buying activity. This is fraught with a further decline and a retest of $1,200. At the same time, the general situation is conducive to growth, therefore, even in the event of a local price drop, ETH will resume bullish movement at least to the range of $1,530–$1,670.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323338
Kiyosaki Forecasts That Silver Can Achieve 500 USD

Kiyosaki Forecasts That Silver Can Achieve 500 USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 13:25
American businessman Robert Kiyosaki said it's time to use the aggressive stance of the Federal Reserve to buy more gold, silver and bitcoin. This is because further rate hikes will strengthen dollar, which will lead to lower prices for the three assets. And once the Fed shifts to a softer policy, prices will soar, giving huge profit. Kiyosaki added that the strength of dollar is unlikely to last long, especially since it traded near 20-year highs for the entire third quarter. In fact, in his recent tweet, Kiyosaki wrote that dollar will collapse by January 2023 after the Fed's turnaround. He also said that silver will jump to $100, then to $500 within this decade. The reason is that stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and real estate are crashing, which pushes silver to trade around $20, allowing everyone to afford the metal. He mentioned the gold-to-silver ratio as well, stating that in the 20th century the ratio was 47:1, meaning that it took 47 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Now, this ratio is about 83:1. With this, Kiyosaki explained that investors should protect their portfolios with hard assets, such as gold and silver, as the biggest crash in history unfolds.   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323322
Crude Oil Supply Problems Are Reflected In JP Morgan's Forecasts

Crude Oil Supply Problems Are Reflected In JP Morgan's Forecasts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 13:18
At first glance, the fall in oil prices below the levels that took place before the armed conflict in Ukraine looks paradoxical. The main grades of black gold lost a quarter of their value in the third quarter, despite the fact that world reserves are at a low level, American companies are not increasing production, there are fewer buyers for Russian oil, and OPEC+ is going to announce production cuts at its first face-to-face summit since the start of the pandemic. The expectation of the last event allowed the Brent bulls to launch a counterattack. The decline in exports and falling prices clearly do not suit Russia, whose oil revenues are melting before our eyes. Saudi Arabia is not averse to reducing production, as it fears that by the end of the year it will drop significantly in Russia due to Western sanctions. And in such conditions, it is necessary to save production facilities in order to turn them on later. Moscow and Riyadh are the key figures of OPEC+, so rumors about the Alliance reducing production by 1 million bpd, which is equivalent to 1% of global supply, are likely to turn into facts. The cartel and its allies are taking the fall of Brent as a challenge. They are clearly not thrilled by the prospect of North Sea grade falling to $80 per barrel. It is likely that OPEC+ would like to protect the $90 per barrel level. However, the Alliance is not fulfilling its plans anyway. In August, it received less than 3.6 million bpd. However, its intention to act aggressively is a bullish signal for the market. Also, Russian oil exports are constantly declining. Maritime deliveries to the EU and Britain have fallen by 60% from levels that took place before the armed conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the process of redirecting black gold from Europe to Asia begins to falter. Three key buyers: India, China, and Turkey imported 2.2 million bpd in June, but by the end of September, this figure fell by 350,000 bpd. Dynamics of Russian oil flows Supply problems are reflected in JP Morgan's forecasts, which sees Brent at $101 a barrel in the fourth quarter. The main arguments cited are a recovery in demand, insufficient investment in field development and other targets by energy companies, the absence of an agreement on supplies from Iran, and OPEC+ production cuts. Alas, the main driver of the fall in oil prices is currently fears of a reduction in global demand against the backdrop of an approaching recession. It is likely to become a reality due to the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks. Technically, there is a steady bearish trend on the Brent daily chart. Nevertheless, the formation of the 1-2-3 pattern increases the risks of a pullback. We build up the longs formed from the level of 87.6 per barrel on the break of the fair value at 90.7. The target is the mark 93.9, located near the upper border of the downward trading channel.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323336
Aramco Is Confident It Can Maintain Its Market Share In Asia

Aramco Is Confident It Can Maintain Its Market Share In Asia

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 12:53
The world's largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, reiterated its warning that producers' spare capacity is running out. It said there would be none left once China ends its "Covid Zero" strategy. Aramco and Saudi officials have often criticized Western governments and firms for avoiding investment in fossil fuels and for trying to switch too quickly to renewables. They cited rising oil and natural gas prices as evidence that more exploration projects are needed. Oil has risen above $125 a barrel since the start of the crisis in Ukraine, then has fallen below $90, in part because of severe coronavirus-related restrictions that have squashed demand in China. Analysts say the Aramco's capacity is only about 2 million barrels a day, which could be quickly put on stream in the event of a supply cut. This is equivalent to 2% of the market. Saudi Arabia and the neighboring United Arab Emirates are among the few major oil producers to have increased their maximum production levels. Nasser said Aramco is on track to increase its capacity to 13 million barrels per day, from 12 million by 2027. This is a project that will cost billions of dollars. Nasser also said Aramco is confident it can maintain its market share in Asia, where it ships about 60% of its crude oil shipments.   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to ma Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323360
Bulls Again Pushed The US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Pair

Bulls Again Pushed The US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 10:38
Yesterday, bulls again pushed the USD/JPY pair above the key 145 mark, but failed to gain a foothold there. The yen turned out to be a tough nut to crack, which is still too tough for the dollar bulls. For a penny of ammunition, for a ruble of ambition Trampling the USD/JPY pair, which lasted all last week, unexpectedly gave way to a decisive upward movement on Monday morning. Lacking a new fundamental catalyst, the dollar miraculously managed to hit the 145 peak it tested in September again. Recall that the last time this barrier was captured turned out to be a disaster for the greenback. In response to the strong fall of the yen, the Japanese authorities carried out the first intervention in 24 years to support their national currency. Having touched a potentially dangerous line, this time the greenback was more cautious and without intervening in the market, it bounced back as if scalded. This served as yet another confirmation that USD/JPY bulls are still wary of intervention and do not want to draw fire on themselves. Of course, the dollar still has a strong amulet in its pocket that will almost save it from a steep plunge. We are talking about the growing monetary divergence between the US and Japan. But the market is well aware that this is no longer enough for the USD to rise. With the Japanese government continuing to threaten to intervene again, the dollar needs a big boost in the form of strong economic data. A strong US economy will definitely allow the Federal Reserve to satisfy all its hawkish ambitions, and weak macroeconomic statistics, on the contrary, will prevent this. Recall that at the September meeting, the US central bank raised interest rates by 75 bps and reaffirmed its willingness to raise the rate more aggressively if inflation continues to be high. Nevertheless, many analysts believe that the 75 bps step is the ceiling for the Fed. The US central bank is unlikely to decide on anything more, given the uneven economic data. This opinion was supported by the latest index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The ISM reported a reading of 50.9 in September, lower than its forecast of 52.2. After the release of pessimistic statistics, the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 14 basis points to 3.66%, and the dollar significantly fell. Flat may drag on Today's portion of US economic data is also unlikely to please the USD/JPY bulls. Tuesday's key report will be the release of the index of business activity in the services sector from ISM. Economists forecast a decline in September to 56 compared to the previous value of 56.9. The data on the index of new orders for the last month may also turn out to be weak. The indicator is expected to fall to 58.9 against 61.8 recorded in August. Preliminary estimates are putting significant pressure on the dollar-yen this morning as it struggles to break out of the consolidation phase to try again to break through the defenses at the psychologically important 145 mark. At the time of release, the quote jumped almost 0.2% and traded around 144.80. The trigger for the asset was a dovish statement by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The day before, the official said that the government will continue to stimulate the economy, while trying to make the most of the weak yen. The geopolitical factor also provided significant support to the dollar - the escalation of tension between Japan and North Korea. At the beginning of the day, it was reported that Pyongyang, which had already tested an unprecedented number of missiles this year, had fired another short-range ballistic projectile. This time, the target of the North Korean military appeared to be the Hokkaido area, which is considered the second largest Japanese island. In response to the missile launch over Japan, the Hokkaido authorities issued an air raid alert and urged the people of the region to take shelter. Meanwhile, Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has signaled that Tokyo is considering all options for strengthening its defenses, including a counterattack. If the conflict between the countries continues to escalate, the Japanese yen may weaken even more. In this case, bulls on the USD/JPY pair will finally have a real chance to settle above the 145 level. However, we recommend that traders do not force things yet and be patient, especially since most forecasts for the USD/JPY pair point to further movement in the flat. Most likely, in the coming days, the dollar and the yen will continue to pull the price rope in the 144-145 range. Technical picture for the USD/JPY pair The short-term trend is neutral, but has a tendency to the downside. As the quote fell below the 20-, 50- and 100-EMAs yesterday, this could spell further losses. If the bears manage to take the asset below 144, this will open a fast route to 143.90.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323332
Kim Kardashian Will Pay To The SEC To Pay Fees Related To The EthereumMax Promotion

Kim Kardashian Will Pay To The SEC To Pay Fees Related To The EthereumMax Promotion

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 10:01
Crypto Industry News: Instagram star Kim Kardashian will pay $ 1.26 million to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pay fees related to the EthereumMax promotion. According to a SEC release, the Commission blamed the star for non-disclosure of the $ 250,000 impact it received for promoting EthereumMax. Kardashian also agreed not to promote any cryptocurrencies for three years. The celebrity took part in an action called "pump and dump". Received a lot of money for promoting a cryptocurrency of no greater value. It was only "recommended" by famous people, greedy for money. How does pump and dump work? Well, the cryptocurrency creators who have the most of it spend a lot on promotion. The internet users then invest and raise the price of the asset, and then the authors sell all or most of their coins. In this way, we have a "pump", that is, pumping the valuation, and then "dump", that is, getting rid of an asset that has obtained a high valuation due to earlier promotional activities. An unaware investor thinks that he is allocating money into something attractive, and then it turns out that he will not get back what he spent. In 2021, Kim Kardashian shared promotional content on her Instagram. The celebrity has one of the largest amounts of followers on social media. Kardashian has approximately 331 million Instagram fans and nearly 74 million Twitter fans. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the demand zone and is heading higher towards the nearest technical resistance located at $1,358. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295322
Kiyosaki's Support For Uncontrolled Bitcoin By The Fed Continues

Kiyosaki's Support For Uncontrolled Bitcoin By The Fed Continues

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 09:52
Crypto Industry News: "Buy more Bitcoin, gold and silver," calls known from numerous publications, especially the famous bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author and investor Robert Kiyosaki. In one of his last tweets, he spoke about the upcoming investment opportunity. In his opinion, if the FED does not change the current rate and continues to raise interest rates, and thus - strengthens the position of the US dollar - it will be a great opportunity to take advantage of the promotion on Bitcoin, gold and silver. Kiyosaki ensures that anyone who buys more Bitcoin, gold and silver will enjoy solid profits in the moment that must come sometime, such as a 180-degree change in FED policy, i.e. lowering interest rates. According to Robert, this could happen as early as January 2023 - then the US dollar could "crash (against the rocks)", as was the case with the British pound. As of May 2020, Kiyosaki has been systematically expressing his enthusiasm for assets that are not directly managed by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. Interestingly, his support for the uncontrolled Bitcoin by the Fed continues despite the fact that he still considers it an asset "of no real value." Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen moving up after the successful test of the local short-term trend line dynamic support around $18,980. Only a sustained breakout above the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 would change the outlook to more bullish, however after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of $20,374, the odds for a breakout higher are very low. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are positive, momentum is strong and well above the level of fifty. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,096 and $19,256. The swing low is seen at the level of $18,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,869 WR2 - $19,490 WR1 - $19,335 Weekly Pivot - $19,190 WS1 - $18,955 WS2 - $18,731 WS3 - $18,351 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295320
Craig Erlam (Oanda) Talks RBA Decision, British Pound (GBP) And The UK Situation And More

The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair Continued Its Upward Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 08:51
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, although there were no objective reasons for this. During the past day, only two relatively important reports were published. Manufacturing PMI in the US and similar in the UK. The British index rose unexpectedly, but remained below the 50.0 level, so we are surprised that traders positively reacted to this report. The US ISM business activity index turned out to be weaker than forecasts, but remained above 50.0, so we are also surprised by such a strong fall in the dollar in the afternoon. As a result, we come to the conclusion that at this time the market is set to buy the British currency, which, coupled with the strong growth last week, still indicates a very high probability of the end of the downward trend. Moreover, on the 24-hour timeframe the Kijun-sen line has been overcome and now the pair can move with the target of the Senkou Span B line, which lies at the level of 1.1836. Also, the pound has overcome all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator and the downward trend line on the hourly timeframe. Such a movement is what we talked about when we spoke of the signs of the beginning of a new trend. Unfortunately, yesterday there was also a problem with trading signals for the pound. Most of the daytime, the pair was in an open flat, so the signals were mostly false. Traders also failed to work out the morning spurt upwards, as few people expected an increase of 185 points amid one business activity index, which also turned out to be below the level of 50.0. However, the pound volatility remains very high, and one can expect both high losses and high profits on transactions. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 18,500 long positions and 10,100 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by another 8,400, which is quite a lot for the pound. We could assume that the actions of the big players and the pound's movement have finally begun to coincide, only the report is released with a three-day delay and simply does not include the last three days of trading, when the pound showed growth. The net position indicator has been actively falling again in recent weeks, and the mood of the big players remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Now it has begun a new growth, so the British pound can formally count on growth. But, if we recall the situation with the euro, then there are big doubts that based on the COT reports, we can expect a strong growth of the pair. How can you count on it if the market buys the dollar more than the pound? The non-commercial group now has a total of 106,000 shorts and 59,000 longs open. The difference, as we can see, is still large. The euro cannot show growth if the major players are bullish, and the pound will suddenly be able to grow if the mood is bearish? We remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the British currency. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 4. It is still very difficult to wait for a strong growth from the euro. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 4. The political absurdity in the UK persists. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 4. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair, as we see it now, has broken the downward trend on the hourly timeframe, as all key levels and lines have been overcome. Important lines and levels are also slowly being overcome on the higher TFs, so the pound is getting closer and closer every day to completing a disastrous period for itself. So far, the fundamental and geopolitical backgrounds do not imply a new fall for the pound. We highlight the following important levels for October 4: 1.0538, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442. Senkou Span B (1.0905) and Kijun-sen (1.0932) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on positions. There are no important events planned for Tuesday in the UK and the US, so traders will have nothing to react to during the day. However, the pair moves 200-300 points every day, so it clearly doesn't need the help of news and reports to move very volatilely. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323292
The Trend Of EUR/USD Pair Began To Change To An Upward One

The Trend Of EUR/USD Pair Began To Change To An Upward One

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.10.2022 08:46
EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD pair again tried to continue moving up on Monday, although it also managed to show a round of downward movement. Nevertheless, if we consider the last three trading days, it turns out that the pair fell into a horizontal channel. At least, it failed to overcome the level of 0.9844 from several attempts, and there are not so many of these attempts so far to talk about overcoming this level in any case sooner or later. It should be noted that despite the flat, the pair traded surprisingly logically, as a weak EU manufacturing business activity index came out in the morning, and a weak US manufacturing business activity index came out in the afternoon. Accordingly, first the euro fell, then the dollar. Of course, we did not expect that far from the most significant reports would be worked out, but the market was blatantly surprised on Monday. It should also be noted that the price did not clearly settle above the Senkou Span B line. There was no consolidation above the critical line on the 24-hour timeframe. Therefore, unlike the pound, we believe that the euro may resume its decline. In regards to Monday's trading signals, the situation was sad. There were already signs of a flat at the European trading session, and the price formed four signals near the area of 0.9804-0.9813. Naturally, most of these signals turned out to be false. Therefore, traders could try to work out the first two signals, but most likely received a loss on both transactions. It's okay, bad days are also an integral part of the trading process. All subsequent signals in the same area should not have been worked out. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in 2022 can be entered in the textbook. For half of the year, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. Then they showed a bearish mood for several months, and the euro also fell steadily. Now the net position of non-commercial traders is bullish again, and the euro continues to fall. This happens, as we have said, because the demand for the US dollar remains high. Therefore, even if the demand for the euro is growing, the high demand for the dollar does not allow the euro itself to rise. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,000, while the number of shorts decreased by 1,800. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 200 contracts. This is very small and this fact does not matter much, since the euro still remains "at the bottom". At this time, commercial traders still prefer the euro to the dollar. The number of longs is higher than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 34,000, but the euro cannot derive any dividends from this. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group can continue to grow further, this does not change anything. Even if you pay attention to the total number of longs and shorts, their values are approximately the same, but the euro is still falling. Thus, it is necessary to wait for changes in the geopolitical and/or fundamental background. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 4. It is still very difficult to wait for a strong growth from the euro. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 4. The political absurdity in the UK persists. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on October 4. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H On the hourly timeframe, the trend began to change to an upward one, but the most important and significant levels and lines have not yet been overcome. We believe that until the Senkou Span B line is confidently overcome on the current TF and the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour TF, it is not necessary to talk about a more powerful growth of the euro currency. The euro, of course, has taken a significant step towards the end of the downtrend, but we recall that so far the upward movement is only a little more than 300 points. On Tuesday, we highlight the following levels for trading - 0.9553, 0.9844, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as the Senkou Span B (0.9804) and Kijun-sen (0.9695) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also auxiliary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "overcoming" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On October 4, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in the European Union, whose rhetoric is unlikely to change from three speeches last week. Therefore, we do not expect a strong market reaction. There are no major events or publications scheduled in the US today. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323290
The Australian Dollar (AUD) Reacts Negatively To The RBA's Decision

The Rate Hike May Not Become A Growth Driver For The Australian Dollar (AUD), Given The Growing Recession Risks

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 14:14
The dollar is falling again at the beginning of the week after a strong fall last Wednesday, when the dollar index (DXY) lost more than 1%, and further decline on Thursday. Today, at the time of this writing, DXY futures are trading near 111.93, 280 pips below a new local 20-year high reached last week. It seems that buyers of the dollar have not yet decided on active actions. Perhaps this is in anticipation of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report on business activity and employment in the manufacturing sector of the US economy. The PMI index for September is predicted at 52.3, slightly lower than the previous value of 52.8. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the USD. However, the expected relative decline is likely to alarm investors. The indicator has been gradually falling since May of this year (previous values of the indicator: 52.8, 53.0, 56.1, 55.4, 57.1, 58.6, 57.6). It is possible that its decline may be more than expected, and this, one way or another, indicates a slowdown in the growth rate of activity in this most important sector of the American economy, which cannot be ignored by the central bank's leadership when conducting a cycle of tightening monetary policy. Although, as has been repeatedly stated by various representatives of the Fed leadership, a recession is most likely unavoidable. However, the Federal Reserve still intends to tighten monetary policy further, actively raising the interest rate in order to curb high inflation, which is not declining in any way. A number of speeches from the Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled for today (at 13:05, 18:15, 19:10, 22:45 GMT). Their speeches are assumed to focus on the need for further interest rate hikes, and this will most likely not have a strong impact on markets that are already ready for this. But if they talk about the possibility of a pause or a slowdown in this cycle, the decline in the dollar, observed last week, may continue this week, especially on weak macro data from the US. The focus of market participants will be on the publication of key data from the US labor market on Friday—the US Department of Labor will present its monthly report for September. Positive indicators are expected, while unemployment remains at minimal levels. Market participants who follow the dynamics of commodity currencies and, in particular, the Australian dollar will be waiting for the publication tomorrow (at 03:30 GMT) of Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on the interest rate, which is predicted to be raised again by 0.50% to 2.85%. Actually, this is a bullish factor for the national currency. AUD may also receive support amid a decrease in supply on the natural gas market due to the undermining of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Australia is known to be a major supplier of raw materials, including coal and liquefied natural gas. However, the market's reaction to tomorrow's interest rate hike may not be very positive, and the rate hike may not become a growth driver for the AUD, given the growing recession risks for the Australian economy. The RBA, like other major world central banks, is in the same difficult situation—high and rising inflation, on the one hand, and a slowdown in the economy, on the other. In other words: "rates cannot be raised or lowered." At the same time, the US dollar continues to receive support as a safe-haven asset, especially given the high geopolitical risks in Europe and the world. As of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6450 mark, resting on the resistance level of 0.6455. In case of its breakdown, further corrective growth is not ruled out. In general, the downward dynamics of AUD/USD remains, making short positions preferable.       Relevance up to 11:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323242
How The EUR/USD And GBP/USD Currency Pairs Look Like Today

How The EUR/USD And GBP/USD Currency Pairs Look Like Today

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 13:19
Details of the economic calendar for September 30 The final data on UK GDP for the second quarter brought a pleasant surprise. GDP for the second quarter grew by 0.2% compared to the previous forecast of -0.1%, and in annual terms increased to +4.4% against the previous estimate of 2.9%. Surprisingly, Britain is not in a technical recession based on GDP data. The publication of data on Eurozone inflation was considered the main event, which reached a double-digit record. Eurozone consumer prices rose by 10% in September, a new all-time high, according to the European Union Statistical Office. The reason for such unprecedented performance lies in the sharp rise in energy prices. As inflation rises, the ECB will continue to tighten monetary policy, which will lead to a sustained rise in interest rates. Analysis of trading charts from September 30 The EURUSD currency pair, during the corrective movement, reached the resistance level of 0.9850, relative to which there was a reduction in the volume of long positions on the euro. As a result, there was a price rebound in the market. The GBPUSD currency pair ended last week in the stage of lateral amplitude, while the price range was quite wide, about 200 points. Economic calendar for October 3 Today, data on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector in Europe and the UK have already been published, where the indicators came out worse than the preliminary estimate. Details: Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 to 48.4 in September. UK's manufacturing PMI in September rose from 47.3 to 48.4 against the forecast of 48.5. There was practically no reaction due to the fact that the market played out the information noise. During the American trading session, the United States manufacturing PMI is also expected for publication, which may rise from 51.5 to 51.8. As for the information flow, the Fed will hold a closed meeting. Expect news from the media regarding what the board of governors discussed. Time targeting: US Manufacturing PMI (Sept.) – 13:45 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 3 To prolong the current correction on the market, the quote must be kept above the resistance level for at least a four-hour period. In this case, buyers of the euro will have high chances to return the quote to the parity area. An alternative scenario considers the completion of a corrective move, where holding the price below 0.9750 in a four-hour period could lead to a phased decline. Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 3 Since the opening of the new trading week, the sideways formation has been broken in an upward trajectory. The movement was accompanied by high speculative interest, during which there was inertia on a scale of more than 180 points. The reason for such a heavy movement was the rumor that the UK plans to cancel the plan to reduce the tax rate from 45% to 40%. Subsequently, this rumor was officially confirmed by the British government. UK Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng confirmed the change on Twitter. "We get it, and we have listened," he wrote. Returning to the technical analysis, a stable holding of the price above the high of the last week at 1.1233 may well lead to the subsequent strengthening of the pound towards the price range of 1.1410/1.1525. Otherwise, the quote will continue to move within the previously passed amplitude of 1.1050/1.1200. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.       Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323236
What Should We Expect From The Bitcoin Formation In The Near Future?

What Should We Expect From The Bitcoin Formation In The Near Future?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 12:37
Bitcoin ended the third quarter in a row on a bearish note. The cryptocurrency spent most of the time in the $18.5k–$20.4k range. Rare moments of upward movement were inextricably linked with the behavior of macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin and October Historically, Bitcoin has been spending October positively. Analysts at Santiment have confirmed the presence of an upward trend in BTC trading volumes since mid-June. Interest in Bitcoin is growing despite the general decline in trading activity in the market. Most analysts tend to believe that the US dollar index will begin a correction in October. The asset reached the upper limit of the ascending channel and met a powerful resistance. Now the price of DXY will go to retest the lower border of the channel in the area of 98–100. Given the inverse correlation of Bitcoin and stock indices with DXY, we can expect a local thaw in the cryptocurrency market. And this completely fits into the historical context of BTC in October and the growing trading volumes. The other side of October However, there are several factors that can aggravate the current situation and negatively affect the prospects of Bitcoin. The Fed announced an emergency meeting on October 3. The announcement does not say for what purpose the meeting was convened, but it is likely that it is related to inflation. Given this, volatility may increase in the market. The second factor that can negatively affect the prospects for the upward movement of Bitcoin is the stock market. Cryptocurrencies have been closely correlated with stock indices throughout the crypto winter. Over the past two weeks, we have seen that this codependency has a negative impact on Bitcoin quotes. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in a narrow range of $18.5k–$19.4k, despite attempts to break through these levels. The main problem with the cryptocurrency was that the trading volumes on the BTC network were not backed up by large purchases on the stock market. As a result, a situation has developed where Bitcoin is trying to realize bullish momentum, and the S&P 500 continues to decline and forms a double bottom. In this case, the correlation of BTC and SPX played a cruel joke and did not allow the cryptocurrency to climb to the $20k level. A similar situation should be expected in October, which has historically been a month of serious falls in the stock market. Given the current macroeconomic situation and a new round of nuclear escalation, there are plenty of triggers for a stock market crash. BTC/USD Technical analysis Bitcoin continues to move within a narrow range of $18.5k–$19.4k. The cryptocurrency has made several unsuccessful attempts to break out of the area and gain a foothold above $20k. The main limiting factor in the growth of BTC/USD quotes is the correlation with stock indices. On the daily chart, for the second week, a contraction has formed, which gradually turns into a "descending triangle" pattern. Despite the growth in trading volumes, hesitant doji candles continue to appear on the daily timeframe. Technical indicators hint at another attempt of an upward movement. The RSI index and the stochastic oscillator are acquiring an upward direction. However, one should not expect a significant change in the situation. MACD continues to move flat below zero, confirming the absence of a strong bullish momentum. Conclusions In the short term, we should expect the completion of the formation of the "triangle" figure and going beyond its limits. It could be argued that the direction of price movement will be downward, but given the growing volumes of BTC on exchanges and the DXY correction, a local price reversal is possible. In the long term, we should expect Bitcoin to go beyond the $18.5k–$19.4k range. A drop in demand for DXY will lead to an increase in high-risk assets. Therefore, we should expect BTC impulse movements above $20k in October.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323230
The Bank Of England's (BoE) Intention To Spend £65bn To Stabilize Financial Markets

The Bank Of England's (BoE) Intention To Spend £65bn To Stabilize Financial Markets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 12:19
Markets need to be prepared. Otherwise, hysteria will happen to them. The Fed knows this very well, which, looking at the "taper tantrum" of 2013, began to gradually introduced investors the QE curtailment in 2021. But governments communicate with the markets less often. Unless they have to. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, amid a sharp decline in the ratings of her Conservative Party, was forced to admit a mistake. More attention should have been paid to preparing investors for tax cuts. However, the help of the Bank of England smoothed out this oversight: the GBPUSD pair, after sinking to a new anti-record, completely regained the lost ground. The worst month for sterling since 2008 and the best week since 2020. It is rare to find such a breathtaking roller coaster in Forex. The presentation of the fiscal stimulus package to the general public turned into a large-scale sale of British bonds and the fall of the GBPUSD to a new historical bottom. Only the suspension of the quantitative tightening (QT) program and the resuscitation of quantitative easing (QE) allowed the bulls to recover. The reaction of the debt market to the actions of the government and the Central Bank With the BoE's intention to spend £65bn to stabilize financial markets, many thought the worst was over. The panic is over. But what will happen after October 14, when the program ends? The Bank of England will return to QT again and continue the cycle of raising the repo rate. Its policy will be contrary to the actions of the government. In addition, the reputation of the regulator was dealt a blow. Rumors began to circulate in Forex that Andrew Bailey and his colleagues are on the sidelines of the Cabinet of Ministers and are ready to finance the embarrassed government of Liz Truss by printing money. Indeed, due to the fiscal stimulus package and the associated S&P downgrade of the UK's credit rating outlook to "negative" and panic in the financial markets, the gap in the popularity of Labor and the Conservatives has widened to 33 points. Elections will be held in 2024. Contradictions in monetary and fiscal policy and shaken confidence in the Bank of England and the Cabinet of Ministers are far from the only problems of the pound. Britain remains the only G7 economy still smaller than it was before the pandemic. Due to the energy crisis, the country is on the verge of recession. Dynamics of the G7 economies Thus, the markets managed to calm down. And this is good news for sterling. But is it enough to continue the GBPUSD rally? Personally, I doubt it. The pound has many unresolved issues, including the echoes of Brexit. It is unlikely that this currency is capable of a long rally. On the contrary, the US dollar continues to be in high demand as a safe-haven asset, and the Fed is able to bring the federal funds rate up to 5%. Technically, there is a consolidation in the 1.105–1.1265 range on the 4-hour GBPUSD chart. An unsuccessful test of its upper border with a subsequent return to 1.115 is a reason for selling within the false breakout pattern.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323226
A Gloomy Outlook For The Global Economy, Do We Have To Prepare For The Worst?

A Gloomy Outlook For The Global Economy, Do We Have To Prepare For The Worst?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 11:20
Key reports published in both US and Europe show that inflation continues to spiral and is at staggering levels. This prompted Credit Suisse to issue a gloomy outlook for the global economy, saying the worst is yet to come. The Department of Commerce released the latest inflation data, indicating that core PCE jumped 0.6% in August. This suggests that inflation is still intense and increasing, and may even be higher in the next months. Core labor costs, which excludes food and energy costs, also rose 4.9%, up 4.7% from forecasts. In Europe, inflation hit a new record high of 10% in September. CPI for the Eurozone differs from that of the US as year-on-year energy prices in the region were up 40.8%. In the US, there is a slight decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. To address inflation, the Fed has implemented five consecutive interest rate hikes, but from last week's report, it is obvious that the aggressive measure is yet to bring inflation down. Vice Chairman Lael Brainard said the risk of additional inflationary shocks cannot be ruled out, so the central bank is trying to avoid a premature retreat. "Monetary policy should be tight for some time to be sure that inflation returns to its target level," she stated.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323234
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 11:02
December futures for both Brent and WTI continue to trade below $90 per barrel. Several factors are to blame, and all of them are related to the current global economic slowdown. In addition, world central banks are competing to see who can raise rates faster, while demand is declining very rapidly. The record growth in US oil inventories also prevents any possible price increase. To address this, OPEC members are having a meeting on October 5. They will likely discuss the issue of cutting production by 1 million barrels per day, which, if approved, will make everyone realize that a recession may come much earlier than expected. In terms of dollar, the current environment will provoke high volatility, which will maintain the stability of the currency. Any decline will be a correction rather than a development of a new trend. EUR/USD Inflation in the Euro area has reached a record high. A number of countries said theirs exceeded 20%, while Germany reported that theirs has come close to 11%. Considering that measures to support the economy are being completed, and the energy crisis is gaining momentum, there is every reason to believe that the current level will be updated several times during the winter months. In terms of positioning, net long positions of euro slightly corrected, which is surprising given the high inflation, gas crisis and geopolitical tensions on the region. Even so, demand remains strong, and it is likely that the recent decline below parity is just short-term. This means that a correction is not long in coming, and bullish momentum may develop amid any positive news from Europe. The settlement price is above the long-term average. Euro is in a stable channel and there is no reason to expect a reversal. But if a correction develops, then 0.9863 will be the nearest target, and rising above it will open the way towards the border of the channel at 0.9960/80. There is little chance of hitting the low, but growth will also be limited. GBP/USD UK markets were highly volatile last week due to the government's plan to cut taxes in order to offset households' electricity bills. Pound hit a new record low, while bond yields soared. The Bank of England was also forced to intervene in the stock market to avert a liquidity crunch among local pension funds. There is growing pressure on the government to adjust its fiscal plans, but so far there is no sign of a change in policy. On the bright side, latest economic data looks very decent as the final estimate of GDP for the 2nd quarter was raised to 4.4% y / y. The housing price index slowed down from 10% to 9.5% y / y, while the number of applications for mortgages significantly exceeded the forecast. Consumer lending does not decrease. In terms of positioning, net short positions in pound slightly decreased, and it seems that sell-offs in the currency are about to stop. The settlement price is well above the long-term average, which indicates that last week's fall is not supported by the changes in the futures market. There is a high chance of a reversal. Most likely, pound will trade around 1.0345 for some time, then go for a rebound. The nearest targets are the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1264 and the upper limit of the channel at 1.1670/1720. There is little chance of a decline below 1.0345, but if it happens, buying pressure will surge, which will continue the correction.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323220
The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 10:48
The end of September was a complete disaster for the global markets. Traders hoped that the US Federal Reserve would at least ease the pace of rate hikes. But this never happened. On the contrary, the Fed officials and its chairman reiterated that they see a further rate increase as their priority aimed at slowing down galloping inflation. All hopes were destroyed last month, resulting in the biggest decline in the stock market and the surge in demand for safe-haven assets. Over the past decades, the US dollar has been traditionally viewed as a reliable store of value in times of economic turmoil. The already serious economic crisis is aggravated by high geopolitical tensions which is the main reason why the capital from Europe and other regions goes to the US. Notably, the US has again benefited from military conflicts in other parts of the world just as it happened 80 years ago. The Fed's recent forecast for GDP, inflation, and unemployment as well as its plan to hike rates that were announced at its latest September meeting signaled that the regulator braces for more headwinds next year. This means that the stock market will largely depend on high rates while the US dollar will continue to strengthen despite the process of monetary tightening launched by other global central banks. So, what to expect in the market today and in the week ahead? Most likely, stock markets will still be focused on rate hikes and geopolitical tensions between Russia and the Western coalition led by the US. The broad-based S&P 500 index is expected to decline to the level of 3,000.00 after passing the interim support of 3,300.00. The European and Russian stock markets are likely to follow a similar trajectory. On Forex, we may observe a short-term consolidation phase ahead of the RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings this week as well as an important jobs report in the US. Any negative news, especially from the US, will boost the demand for the US dollar. So, after a quick fall, USD may recover again, being a preferred safe-haven asset in these uncertain times. As for today, the weak data on Manufacturing PPI in the US may serve as a signal to buy the US dollar after its short decline in the Asian and European sessions. Daily forecast: GBP/USD The pair is going through a consolidation phase under 1.1225 ahead of the Manufacturing PPI data release in the UK and US. The downbeat data in both countries may stop the pair from a breakout. Instead, it may reverse and move down to 1.0915. USD/JPY The pair is testing the level of 145.00. Consolidation above this range will open the way towards the upper target of 145.90, the recent high formed on September 22.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323222
The Digital Trade Transparency Act of 2022| Bitcoin's Early Trend Continues

The Digital Trade Transparency Act of 2022| Bitcoin's Early Trend Continues

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 10:41
Crypto Industry News: US Senator Bill Hagerty, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, outlined legislation to provide a safe haven for cryptocurrency exchanges ahead of "certain" actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The Digital Trade Transparency Act of 2022, presented by Senator Hagerty, aims to provide regulatory clarity around two major issues plaguing crypto exchanges - the classification of digital assets and related liabilities under applicable securities laws. "The current lack of regulatory clarity for digital content gives entrepreneurs and businesses a choice: navigate significant regulatory ambiguity in the US or move overseas to markets with clear rules for digital content," he said. This regulatory uncertainty, according to Senator Hagerty, discourages investment in crypto spaces and hampers job creation in the US. As a result, the blockade "threatens US leadership in this transformative technology at such a pivotal moment." Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen moving lower over the weekend, but o a larger time frames the market is still consolidating inside a narrow zone. Only a sustained breakout above the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 would change the outlook to more bullish, however after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of $20,374, the odds for a breakout higher are very low. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are positive, but the momentum is not strong at all. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,096 and $19,256. The swing low is seen at the level of $18,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,869 WR2 - $19,490 WR1 - $19,335 Weekly Pivot - $19,190 WS1 - $18,955 WS2 - $18,731 WS3 - $18,351 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295175
Meta Platform Users Can Combine Wallets And Share NFT Tokens In 100 Countries| The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Making Lower Highs

Meta Platform Users Can Combine Wallets And Share NFT Tokens In 100 Countries| The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Making Lower Highs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 10:35
Crypto Industry News: Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has announced another expansion in its digital arts initiative. From September 29, all users of both platforms can combine wallets and share NFT tokens in 100 countries. As part of the feature, which is being tested since May, users will be able to tag creators and collectors, as well as transfer digital collectibles between platforms at no cost. In August, Meta began allowing users to publish their digital collectors' items on Facebook and Instagram, and announced its international expansion to countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and the Americas. The company also added support for third-party wallets such as Rainbow, MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Coinbase Wallet, and Dapper Wallet, as well as support for Ethereum, Polygon, and Flow Blockchain chains. Several Twitter users at the time expressed concern about the security and privacy of data sent by linking digital wallets to the Meta platform. In April 2021, confidential personal data of more than half a billion Facebook users was leaked on a frequently visited hacking forum. According to Statista data, Facebook and Instagram have 2.9 billion and 1.4 billion monthly active users, respectively. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been moving lower over the weekend and is currently tradin g just above the demand zone. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,360 WR2 - $1,320 WR1 - $1,306 Weekly Pivot - $1,283 WS1 - $1,268 WS2 - $1,245 WS3 - $1,206 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295177
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:32
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued to remain above the Senkou Span B line on Friday, which is very good for its prospects. It did not surpass the 1.1212 level, but not all levels are overcome the first time, so there is nothing wrong with that. The pound may continue rising this week, as it has overcome the descending trend line and the Ichimoku indicator line. Last Friday, the UK released a report on GDP for the second quarter, which caused a very restrained market reaction. It completely ignored US secondary statistics. The pound continues to trade in a very volatile manner, and the main factors that influence it are geopolitics and the "foundation". More precisely, it would be better to say that now they have weakened their influence on the pound, as they imply a further fall in the British currency. However, this is where the danger lies for traders. Now they may decide that the global downward trend is over, and now they can buy the pound "with all the money." However, on the 24-hour timeframe it is perfectly clear that the pound has not really overcome any important resistance yet, therefore, the fall may resume. Only one trading signal was formed on Friday - the price rebounded from the extreme level of 1.1212, after which it went down at a high of about 167 points. Unfortunately, it failed to reach the nearest target level of 1.0969, but the position could still be closed in profit, manually in the late afternoon. Then the profit on it would be about 60 points, which is also not bad. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 18,500 long positions and 10,100 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by another 8,400, which is quite a lot for the pound. We could assume that the actions of the big players and the movement of the pound have finally begun to coincide, only the report is released with a three-day delay and simply does not include the last three days of trading, when the pound showed growth. The net position indicator has been actively falling again in recent weeks, and the mood of the big players remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Now it has begun a new growth, so the British pound can formally count on growth. But, if we recall the situation with the euro, then there are big doubts that based on the COT reports, we can expect a strong growth of the pair. How can you count on it if the market buys the dollar more than the pound? The non-commercial group now has a total of 106,000 shorts and 59,000 longs open. The difference, as we can see, is still large. The euro cannot show growth if the major players are bullish, and the pound will suddenly be able to grow if the mood is bearish? We remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the British currency. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 3. Geopolitics can bring down the euro with renewed vigor. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 3. The clouds are gathering over Liz Truss. Will she follow in the footsteps of Boris Johnson or become the new "Margaret Thatcher"? Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 3. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair, as we see it now, has broken the downward trend on the hourly timeframe, as all key levels and lines have been overcome. But this is in the short term, since similar levels and lines on the higher time frames have not been overcome. Obviously, sooner or later the price will be able to surpass them, why not now? However, we still fear for the further prospects of the pound, so we call for caution when opening any positions. At least, do not forget about Stop Loss. We highlight the following important levels for October 3: 1.0538, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442. Senkou Span B (1.0969) and Kijun-sen (1.0884) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. Only manufacturing PMIs for September will be published in the UK and the US on Monday. The US index is more important, and the market may react to it. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323200
The EUR/USD Pair: All Types Of Backgrounds Remain A Failure For The Euro (EUR)

The EUR/USD Pair: All Types Of Backgrounds Remain A Failure For The Euro (EUR)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:27
EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD pair tried to overcome the Senkou Span B line on Friday, but it failed to do so on the first attempt. Now the euro, which has been growing for only a few days so far, faces an important dilemma: either overcome the Senkou Span B line and count on some additional growth, or resume the fall. The European Union published a rather important September inflation report on Friday. Traders obviously did not expect to see the consumer price index rise immediately by 10%, but for some reason they rushed to sell the euro, and not buy it after the release of the data. From our point of view, each subsequent increase in inflation raises the likelihood of further European Central Bank rate hikes. Therefore, it would be logical to assume that the euro should show growth, not fall. But the market judged in its own way, the euro fell by 100 points, and during the rest of the day it almost completely won back these losses. The euro's prospects remain rather vague due to the fundamental and geopolitical background, but growth can also continue for some time on bare "technique". In regards to Friday's trading signals, the situation was not the best. There was no pronounced flat that day, but all signals formed in the area of 0.9804-0.9813. The first buy signal was false, as the price was able to go up only 15 points. The position was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven. Then an ultra-inaccurate buy signal was formed, after which the price went up 23 points. The position again closed at breakeven. The next two sell signals should have been ignored, but even if traders tried to work them out, they still would not receive profits, since the price never reached the target level. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in 2022 can be entered in the textbook. For half of the year, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. Then they showed a bearish mood for several months, and the euro also fell steadily. Now the net position of non-commercial traders is bullish again, and the euro continues to fall. This happens, as we have said, because the demand for the US dollar remains high. Therefore, even if the demand for the euro is growing, the high demand for the dollar does not allow the euro itself to grow. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,000, while the number of shorts decreased by 1,800. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 200 contracts. This is very small and this fact does not matter much, since the euro still remains "at the bottom". At this time, commercial traders still prefer the euro to the dollar. The number of long positions is higher than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 34,000, but the euro cannot derive any dividends from this. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group can continue to grow further, this does not change anything. Even if you pay attention to the total number of longs and shorts, their values are approximately the same, but the euro is still falling. Thus, it is necessary to wait for changes in the geopolitical and/or fundamental background. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 3. Geopolitics can bring down the euro with renewed vigor. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 3. The clouds are gathering over Liz Truss. Will she follow in the footsteps of Boris Johnson or become the new "Margaret Thatcher"? Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on October 3. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The trend began to change to an upward one on the hourly timeframe. Despite the fact that almost all types of backgrounds remain a failure for the euro, as well as the economic prospects of the European Union, the market still cannot sell the euro forever. Perhaps now we are entering a 2-3 month period of growth. The main thing is that the pair manages to settle above the Senkou Span B line. Without this, it will be difficult to count on growth. We highlight the following levels for trading on Monday - 0.9553, 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as the Senkou Span B (0.9804) and Kijun-sen (0.9695) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union and the United States will publish indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector. The US ISM index is more significant, we expect some market reaction to it, but everything will depend on the deviation of the actual value from the forecast. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323198
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:21
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.71% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.51% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.51%. Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated were among the leaders of gains among the components of the Dow Jones index today, which lost 3.79 points (0.74%) to close at 505.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc fell 0.15 points or 0.48% to close at 31.40. Dow Inc shed 0.23 points or 0.52% to close at 43.93. The drop leaders were Nike Inc shares, which lost 12.21 points or 12.81% to end the session at 83.12. Boeing Co was up 3.39% or 4.25 points to close at 121.08, while Walt Disney Company was down 3.20% or 3.12 points to close at 94. 33. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Charles River Laboratories, which rose 3.57% to hit 196.80, Weyerhaeuser Company, which gained 2.92% to close at 28.56, and shares of Twitter Inc, which rose 2.74% to end the session at 43.91. The losers were shares of Carnival Corporation, which fell 23.31% to close at 7.03. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd lost 18.11% to end the session at 11.35. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 13.14% to 37.91. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were FingerMotion Inc, which rose 82.16% to hit 3.37, SAITECH Global Corp, which gained 43.36% to close at 3.24, and shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 39.03% to end the session at 10.08. The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 39.91% to close at 20.40. Shares of Aterian Inc lost 37.06% and ended the session at 1.24. Quotes of Edesa Biotech Inc decreased in price by 34.66% to 0.92. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,758) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,354), while quotations of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,139 companies fell in price, 1,583 rose, and 228 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.69% to 31.62. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.11%, or 1.80, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.87%, or 1.52, to $79.71 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 1.86, to $85.32 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.98, while USD/JPY advanced 0.23% to hit 144.77. Futures on the USD index fell 0.09% to 112.10. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295131
The Euro-Dollar (EUR/USD) Has Pair A Potential For Further Growth?

The Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair: Sales Will Become Relevant Again

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:15
The EUR/USD currency pair was trading upwards on Friday, as it had been for the previous two days. It can be seen that traders made a pretty good leap up, but are they ready to continue buying the euro currency, or was it only a partial fixation of short positions by bears? So far, the euro has managed to rise in price by "as much as" 300 points, which is very little to talk about the beginning of a new upward trend. So formally, the trend changed to an upward one. Still, we recall that before the beginning of the last round of the upward movement, the euro currency fell significantly, so now we can talk about another round of technical correction. If this is the case, the fall of the euro currency may well resume since the fundamental global background has not changed for the euro and the dollar, and the geopolitical one has worsened, which is primarily dangerous for the euro currency. The pair had previously been fixed from time to time above the moving average, but this did not even lead to significant corrections. We still believe that it will be possible to count on the serious growth of the euro currency no earlier than the end of 2022, when the Fed, in theory, should announce a slowdown in the increase in the key rate or a refusal to increase it further. In this case, there will be fundamental reasons to expect a rise in the euro. But at the same time, we do not know and cannot know what will happen to geopolitics by that time. We have already mentioned that three of the four strands of the Nord Stream pipeline were blown up last week. It is still unclear who is behind this terrorist attack. One thing is clear – the European Union will suffer from it. Gas supplies from Russia have been stopped and are unlikely to be resumed in the near future. Recall that the main plan of Brussels was to fill gas storage facilities as much as possible before gas supplies from the Russian Federation stopped to spend the current winter without problems and then solve the problem with gas over the next year. However, either the Kremlin has escalated the "gas conflict," or Washington has thus decided to accelerate the increase in LNG supplies from the United States to the EU. Still, the fact remains that the Nord Stream is not functioning, and if it is not repaired in the near future, it will never function. The European economy will start to stall without Russian gas. There will be practically no macroeconomic statistics in the EU next week. Of the relatively important events, we can single out only the indices of business activity in the service and manufacturing sectors, another speech by Christine Lagarde, and a report on retail sales. The market is now primarily interested not in macroeconomics but in geopolitics. Therefore, it will play an important role in the prospects of the euro/dollar pair. From our point of view, the situation may deteriorate dramatically in October. First, Moscow and Kyiv have taken the path of escalation of the military conflict. The Kremlin said that any strike on the territory recognized by it would be regarded as an encroachment on the integrity and security of the Russian Federation, so a tactical nuclear strike could follow in response. Kyiv immediately responded with an application to join NATO, and NATO itself announced the principle of an open door. The AFU took the strategically important city of Liman the next day, so, as we see, the Ukrainian side continues to go on a counter-offensive. Consequently, the deterioration of the geopolitical situation is a very likely development of events, given the mobilization of several hundred thousand Russians. And this means that there will be new missile strikes, bloody battles, new Western sanctions, and so on. In addition, the European Union energy crisis may become a catastrophe when gas supplies from the Russian Federation can only be carried out by sea and through Ukraine. It is unclear how long the pipeline, which passes through Ukrainian territories, will live now, given the terrorist attacks in the North Sea. But one way or another, the EU may be left without gas this winter, which will affect its industrial production, GDP, and the satisfaction of European citizens. Based on all of the above factors, we believe that the euro currency may resume depreciation against the US currency. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last five trading days as of October 3 is 160 points and is characterized as "very high." Thus, on Monday, we expect the pair to move between 0.9644 and 0.9964 levels. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a new round of upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 0.9766 S2 – 0.9644 S3 – 0.9521 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 0.9888 R2 – 1.0010 R3 – 1.0132 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the moving average line and may continue to move up. Thus, now we should consider new long positions with targets of 0.9888 and 0.9964 if we see a price rebound from the moving average and a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards. Sales will become relevant again no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average with a target of 0.9644. Explanations of the illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) identifies the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Based on current volatility indicators, volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323202
Will Today's The Manufacturing PMI Data Affect The Euro (EUR)?

Will Today's The Manufacturing PMI Data Affect The Euro (EUR)?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:10
Last Friday, the euro traded within the range of target levels 0.9752-0.9850, closing the day down 12 points. The daily Marlin Oscillator turned sideways – to the neutral state, even though it is in the negative territory. A debt crisis is brewing in Europe, which began with a rise in yields on British medium-term government bonds, in particular, on 3-year securities over the last ten days of September, it jumped from 3.05% to 4.74%. For German 3-year bonds, during this time, the yield increased from 1.54% to 1.80%. Given the European Central Bank's intention to raise rates sharply at the October meeting, anxiety will only intensify. But maybe not today or tomorrow. The eurozone is expected to have a neutral PMI in the manufacturing sector for September - that is, it will remain at its previous value of 48.5 points, while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to weaken from 52.8 to 52.2. As a result, we expect some more delay for the euro in the range of 0.9695-0.9850. Perhaps, having the price settle under 0.9695, that is, under the close on September 23, when the euro collapsed by 150 points, the trend will strengthen in a new downward momentum. On the H4 chart, the price settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, which also indicates the possibility of the price staying in the side short-term trend. The Marlin Oscillator has turned down, but not enough yet, given the overall technical picture, for the effectiveness of such a signal. The probability of continuation of the correction to the level of 0.9950, which has already reached and significantly strengthened the MACD line of the daily scale, is 35%. We will allocate 50% for sideways movement and 15% for downward reversal.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323210
Should Market Wait For The Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD) Price To Return To A New Downward Move?

Should Market Wait For The Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD) Price To Return To A New Downward Move?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:01
The Australian dollar closed the day down 95 points on Friday, having worked out one of the embedded lines of the falling price channel (daily) with a lower shadow. This morning the price is trying to get above the resistance of 0.6439. In the event of consolidating above the level, the price may continue to grow towards the target resistance of 0.6515. The Marlin Oscillator is already turning into a correction. The price's return to the area under the Friday low, or rather, under the line of the price channel of 0.6385, opens the target along the underlying parallel line in the area of the price level of 0.6330. On a four-hour scale, the price is attacking the resistance level of 0.6439 and at the same time the Marlin Oscillator is trying to move into the zone of positive values. If such a synchronous qualitative transition takes place, then the aussie will continue its short-term growth, but it may not reach the 0.6515 target, since the MACD line is already passing under this level, and over time it will be lower and lower, creating its own resistance. We are waiting for the correction to end and the price to return to a new downward wave.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323206
Kiyosaki's Support For Uncontrolled Bitcoin By The Fed Continues

On The Daily Chart Of BTC/USD, There Is A Consolidation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 13:20
Separation is an unpleasant thing, but it happens from time to time. In the second half of September, bitcoin stopped being led by the US stock market. The leader of the cryptocurrency sector is trading near the psychologically important mark of 20,000, despite the rampant fall in US stock indices, due to the aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed. If the S&P 500 was scared by the intention of the central bank to raise the federal funds rate to 4.25–4.5% this year, then BTCUSD is in no hurry to fall. 20,000 for one coin is an important mark not only in terms of price, but also in terms of capitalization. The market value of cryptocurrencies is currently estimated at $1 trillion. This is $2 trillion less than at the peak of BTCUSD in November 2021. And although the token has since sank by 70%, and the S&P 500 by only 22%, in September, the situation changed. Stock indices are falling on fears that an overly aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy will cause a recession in the US economy. At the same time, the stock market has not yet fully taken into account the risks of a downturn, as evidenced by the VIX fear index. The volatility of equity securities is currently substantially lower than that of debt securities. They most likely have somewhere to fall. Dynamics of volatility of the US stock and bond markets Is there a place for bitcoin to fall? Big question. Unlike trading in the US financial market, no additional margin is required to hold losing positions in cryptocurrencies. You can hold them for as long as you like, with the expectation that, eventually, the price will still rise and take you out of losses. Such stubborn holders are called hodlers, and their number is currently growing. This is a distinctive feature of crypto winter 2022. During the previous periods of BTCUSD falls, everything was different. Strong non-sell hands keep the token from falling too low. Of course, everything can change if bitcoin rewrites the June lows, but until this happens, you can talk about the ability of the cryptocurrency leader to find the bottom. Note that the external background for bitcoin as a representative of risky assets remains extremely unfavorable. FOMC officials are openly talking about their readiness to raise the federal funds rate to 5% in 2023. This will certainly allow Treasury yields to restore the upward trend after the correction associated with the intervention of the Bank of England in the life of the debt markets. The higher bond rates rise, the worse it is for stocks and all earning assets. Bitcoin is no exception. Technically, on the daily chart of BTCUSD, there is a consolidation within the medium-term downward trend. A series of rising highs and lows indicates a serious struggle for the initiative between the "bulls" and "bears" and contributes to forming the Broadening Wedge reversal pattern. The conservative strategy is to buy the peak at 22,800. A more aggressive approach involves opening long positions on a breakout of the fair value at 19,900.   Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323134
Should Market Wait For The Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD) Price To Return To A New Downward Move?

Trend Of The Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD) Pair Is Still The Downside

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 12:39
Weekly Review & Forecast: The general trend of the AUD/USD pair is still stronger to the downside. Investors will not care about the arrival of technical indicators towards oversold levels as far as interacting with the factors of the gains of the AUD dollar and the continued faltering of the USD. The closest bearish targets are currently 0.6441 and then the parity price for the currency pair. New targets 0.6404, 0.6350 and 0.6300 (historical target). AUD/USD pair is expected to trade around the spot of 0.6441 and 0.6460 by started of this week, according to trading economics global macro models and our expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 0.6441 in or Sept. 2022. The pair dropped from the level of 0.6514 (this level of 0.6514 coincides with the ratio of 23.6%) to the bottom around 0.6441. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6514 followed by Yesterday (the weekly pivot point), while daily support 1 is found at 0.6404. Also, the level of 0.6514 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Some follow-through selling would make the AUD/USD pair vulnerable to challenging the valence mark in the near term. From a technical perspective, the overnight swing low, around the 0.6441 area, now seems to act as a support point, below which spot prices could extend the fall towards the 0.6404 mark. The AUD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6350. For these reasons we would be very difficult to see further significant decline for the euro before tomorrow, with signs of stabilization and correction to be the most possible scenario. A choppy morning saw the AUD/USD pair fall to an early morning low of 0.6441 before rising to a high of 0.6514 (pivot point). An extended rally could test resistance at 0.6441 and the second major resistance level (R2) at 0.6559. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at 0.6596. The direction of the AUD/USD pair may reflect the strength of either the EU or AUD economy. Moreover, the EUR to AUD dollar rate may reflect the overall global market sentiment. We had already shared in our previous topic that the psychological price sets at the level of 0.6514. The AUD/USD weekly forecast is mildly tilted towards the downside as the pair failed to sustain above the 0.6514 area after several attempts. The AUD/USD pair weekly forecast is mildly tilted towards the downside as the pair failed to sustain above the 0.6514 area after several attempts. If the price were to depress the resistance 0.6514 in the short term, this would be a sign of possible consolidation in the short term, but against the trend trading would then perhaps be riskier. Moreover, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.6514. So, it will be good to sell at 0.6514 with the first target of 0.6404. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.6350. The strong weekly support is seen at 0.6350. Sellers would then use the next support located at 0.6325 as an objective. Crossing it would then enable sellers to target 0.6300.     Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295004
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

The Growth Of EUR/USD And GBP/USD Pairs Will Be Limited As The Economic Situation In Both Europe And The UK Are Not Good

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 11:26
The rebound in financial markets was short-lived due to unstable support from statistics. Also, market sentiment noticeably worsened as the UK bond market collapsed amid the government's plan to launch a new program to stimulate the economy. This caused pound to fall to 1985 lows, while bond yields jumped to 2008 levels as fears of a more vigorous rate hike increased. Now, with the potential rate hike, GBP/USD rose above 1.1000 and traded at 1.1140. EUR/USD also increased as rising inflation in Germany point to more aggressive climb of ECB rates. Reportedly, the consumer price index in the country rose to 10% y/y and 1.9% m/m. The expected rate hike may intensify if consumer inflation in the whole Euro area rises to 9.7%. But growth will be limited as the economic situation in both Europe and the UK are not good. Although the energy crisis, decline in production and incomes of citizens could develop a decrease in inflation, these regions are poorly attractive for investment. As such, demand for dollar will continue, while risk appetite will go down, which is negative for euro and pound. Forecasts for today: GBP/USD Although demand rose because of potential rate hikes by the Bank of England, growth will be limited, especially if the pair does not rise above 1.1180. And if it falls below 1.1070, the price will collapse to 1.0915. EUR/USD Demand surged because of the potential rate hike by the ECB. If inflation in the Euro area turns out to be higher than expected, the pair will hit 0.9875, then fall to 0.9700.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323108
How The EUR/USD And GBP/USD Currency Pairs Look Like Today

The Euro (EUR) And The British Pound (GBP) Continue To Strengthen Their Positions Against The US Dollar (USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 10:47
And while the euro is gaining ground against the US dollar, and the British pound is making its way to another weekly highs amid increased optimism, supported by the actions of the Bank of England, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, said he supports raising rates by another 1.25 percentage points by the end of this year to counter inflation, which turned out to be worse, than he expected. "The lack of progress so far makes me think much more that we should take a moderately restrictive position," he told reporters during a conference call. "For me, acceptable rates are in the range from 4.25% to 4.5%. I prefer that we get to this level by the end of the year." Such aggressive statements by representatives of the Fed are not news this week. Fed officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points at the September 21 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate target from 3% to 3.25%. Immediately after that, policymakers continued to prepare the markets for further changes in the cost of borrowing, and median forecasts already show that Fed officials are laying on a rate of 4.5% by the end of this year. "Inflation is still high and too high and not moving fast enough back towards our 2% target," Bostic said, adding that he expected to see an improvement in supply chain imbalances in early summer that would help ease price pressures. "The forecasts did not come true, and the situation on the energy market has not changed, which forced me to adjust my political thinking," he said. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta still hopes that the US economy will be able to avoid a recession or a much higher unemployment rate. According to his forecasts, unemployment will rise to about 4.1% from 3.7% — a small increase that will continue to keep the labor market at a fairly strong level. "I still don't think the recession is a settled issue. Yes, we may have some weakening in the economy, but I don't think that at this stage it will lead us to a historical crisis." Despite such hawkish statements by other American politicians, the euro and the British pound continue to strengthen their positions against the US dollar, taking advantage of sufficient optimism after the recent intervention of the BoE in the situation on the currency and bond market. As for the technical picture of EURUSD, the bulls have regained their advantage and the market under their control, which they lost at the beginning of the week, and are now aiming to break through the nearest resistance of 0.9840. It is necessary to do this if they expect the upward correction to continue at the end of this month. A breakdown of 0.9840 will take the trading instrument even higher to the area of 0.9890 and 0.9950. But despite the good upward prospects, protecting the nearest support of 0.9780 is still an important task for the bulls. Its breakthrough will push the euro to a low of 0.9730, but there will be nothing critical in this situation either, since there is the lower boundary of the new ascending channel. Only after missing 0.9730 will it be possible to start getting nervous, as the pair will easily fall into the area of 0.9680 and 0.9640. The pound continues to win back positions one by one thanks to the BoE's support. Now bulls are focused on the 1.1200 resistance, the breakthrough of which will open up prospects for further recovery in the area of 1.1260 and 1.1320. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the trading instrument only after the bears take control of 1.1070, but this will not cause serious damage to the bull market observed since the middle of the week. Only a breakthrough of 1.1070 will push GBPUSD back to 1.1010 and 1.0950.       Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323104
Economists Are Concerned About The Future Fed Decision

Economists Are Concerned About The Future Fed Decision

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 10:09
Fast and furious tightening by the Federal Reserve risks plunging the economy into recession, and economists fear the central bank is making another mistake after a recent slow response to runaway inflation. A string of massive interest rate hikes of 75 basis points, with at least one more expected in November, according to experts, means that officials are not going to wait for the effect of their actions before acting again. The risk of an aggressive policy without analysis of the actions of Fed officials could drive the economy into a much deeper recession than expected. Given the lag of some inflation data, this is already a concern for many politicians. Let me remind you that Fed officials started raising rates from almost zero only in March, after the price pressure had already reached a significant level. After their delay, they are now ramping up the burden on the economy at a record pace to catch up, with the price of a mistake being the future economic pain caused by inflation-suppressing actions. The Fed has already raised rates by 3 percentage points this year, with the bulk of the increase coming in the summer, and has vowed to keep raising rates until it sees clear signs of lower inflation. According to the latest reports, inflation in the US resumed its growth in August, which forced the Fed to return to discussions on the topic of maintaining a further aggressive policy. The Fed's current actions have already pushed up the cost of borrowing on everything from home loans to cars, but the full impact of these moves on the economy will only be known in the next few months, given the time it takes for current changes to take hold across all areas. Experts say that without creating the respite that many traders and investors hoped for in the early fall of this year, politicians risk causing a larger slowdown in the economy than necessary, as well as potentially damaging the labor market more than anticipated. At their meeting later this month, Fed officials said they would raise rates by another 1.25 percentage points this year, which could mean another 75 basis point hike in November and a half-percentage increase in December. According to the Fed's median forecast, next year rates will rise by another quarter of a point. All this supports the dollar and puts pressure on risky assets, especially in the face of a deteriorating geopolitical situation. As for the technical picture of EURUSD, the bulls have regained their advantage and the market under their control, which they lost at the beginning of the week, and now they are aiming to break through the nearest resistance at 0.9840. This is necessary if they expect a continuation of the upward correction at the end of this month. The breakdown of 0.9840 will take the trading instrument even higher to the area of 0.9890 and 0.9950. But despite the good upward prospects, the bulls' main task is to protect the immediate support of 0.9780. Its breakthrough will push the euro to a low of 0.9730, but in this situation there will be nothing critical, since the lower border of the new rising channel passes there. You can start to get nervous only if you miss 0.9730, as the pair will easily fall to the area of 0.9680 and 0.9640. The pound continues to win back positions one by one thanks to the support of the Bank of England. Now the bulls are focused on the resistance at 1.1200, the breakthrough of which will open the prospects for further recovery in the area of 1.1260 and 1.1320. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the trading instrument only after the bears take control of 1.1070, but this will not cause serious damage to the bull market observed since the middle of the week. Only a breakthrough of 1.1070 will push the GBPUSD back to 1.1010 and 1.0950.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323102
The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 09:00
The euro has strengthened its position against the dollar and continues to grow amid repeated statements by European politicians this week that the European Central Bank should raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at the next meeting, which is scheduled for October this year. Data on inflation in the eurozone will be released today, which will surely confirm the correct attitude of European politicians to the current situation, it was just necessary to act a little earlier – the Federal Reserve went too far, which led to such a gap in interest rates and a strong weakening of the euro against the US dollar. In his recent speech, member of the Board of Governors Martins Kazaks stated: "In the current situation, we can still do much more. The next step still needs to be quite large, because we are far from the rates corresponding to 2% inflation. I would support a 75 basis point increase — let's take a bigger step and raise rates." European Central Bank and rate The Latvian official said that this does not mean that 75 basis points are now the "golden mean", and that, probably, as soon as rates will be more in line with the inflation target, future steps need to be done more carefully. His calls for decisive action are supported by other officials from the Baltic region. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and other officials from the board of governors told us about something similar this week. The surge in prices caused by Russia's military special operation in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis prompted ECB officials to start raising rates for the first time in more than a decade — this month rates were raised immediately by a historic three-quarters of a point. Now they are weighing how to proceed, as the price increase is accompanied by ever-increasing forecasts of a recession. Lagarde told European Union lawmakers this week that officials will start considering cutting trillions of euros worth of bonds it accumulated during recent crises only after rates reach that point. Traders estimate the probability of another 75 basis point move next month at 40%. An increase in this amount will double the deposit rate to 1.5% — the highest level since 2009. The opinion of a Latvian politician As for Kazaks' speech, in his opinion, the cost of borrowing will reach a "neutral" level, which does not stimulate or limit the economy by the end of the year. "Of course, we should discuss all the tools so that when it is necessary to make a tough decision, we are ready," Kazaks said. "The ECB should delay its balance sheet reduction program, or quantitative tightening, until next year." According to the Latvian politician, this will prevent the European crisis from flowing into recession. Given that the main source of inflation is the crisis in the energy market, which is of a geopolitical and structural nature, an extremely rapid tightening of monetary policy will simply push the economy into recession. The Technical Outlook  As for the technical picture of EURUSD, the bulls have regained their advantage and the market under their control, which they lost at the beginning of the week, and are now aiming to break through the nearest resistance of 0.9840. It is necessary to do this if they expect the upward correction to continue at the end of this month. A breakdown of 0.9840 will take the trading instrument even higher to the area of 0.9890 and 0.9950. But despite the good upward prospects, protecting the nearest support of 0.9780 is still an important task for the bulls. Its breakthrough will push the euro to a low of 0.9730, but there will be nothing critical in this situation either, since there is the lower boundary of the new ascending channel. Only after missing 0.9730 will it be possible to start getting nervous, as the pair will easily fall into the area of 0.9680 and 0.9640. The Pound (GBP) The pound continues to win back positions one by one thanks to the support of the Bank of England. Now bulls are focused on the 1.1200 resistance, the breakthrough of which will open up prospects for further recovery in the area of 1.1260 and 1.1320. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the trading instrument only after the bears take control of 1.1070, but this will not cause serious damage to the bull market observed since the middle of the week. Only a breakthrough of 1.1070 will push GBPUSD back to 1.1010 and 1.0950.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323100
The Fall Of Terra And Luna Cryptocurrency Investors| Trade The ETH/USD Pair

The Fall Of Terra And Luna Cryptocurrency Investors| Trade The ETH/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:56
Crypto Industry News: The CEO of Galaxy Digital - Mike Novogratz - during his speech at the Token 2049 conference, spoke about the fall of Terra and Luna cryptocurrency investors. He stated that many retail investors had lost their investment in the project because they had failed to take into account the risk of volatility. He also accused them of holding their tokens for too long. "It was painful when it all came crashing down," he said. "When a token goes from 20 cents to $ 100 and you are not making a profit, that's crazy." He then pointed to the problem of the lack of a "risk management methodology" by many retail investors who were emotionally buying tokens because they were gaining in value. Speaking at a Singapore conference, Novogratz seemed to be trying to warm up the image of Do Kwon, who is currently being wanted by South Korean authorities on charges of fraud. The Korean prosecutor's office also asked the exchanges to which Terraform Lab's CEO transferred his bitcoins to freeze his assets. Galaxy Digital was one of the investors in the Terra project. What's more, the company's CEO even tattooed the symbol of the Luna cryptocurrency. Novogratz stressed that everything Kwon and Terraform Labs built was fairly transparent and publicly available, which is related to the nature of blockchain technology. Technical Market Outlook: After the aggressive and dynamic reversal around the level of $1,400,The ETH/USD pair has been trading inside a narrow range as the liquidity dries up. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255 and the technical resistance is located at $1,358 and $1,407. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294961
The Fed Is Considering A Virtual Dollar (CBDC) And The Downward Trend Remains In The Bitcoin

The Fed Is Considering A Virtual Dollar (CBDC) And The Downward Trend Remains In The Bitcoin

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:49
Crypto Industry News: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presented the latest information on the central bank's work on the digital dollar during a panel discussion on digital finance hosted by the Banque of France: "US cash is not going away. We still use it quite a bit, "he said. Powell explained that the Federal Reserve is looking very closely at the "potential costs and benefits" of issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the US. "We are watching it very carefully. We assess both political and technological issues, and we do it very broadly," he explained. The Fed chairman added that he planned to cooperate with Congress, but also with the executive branch, which would bring expert knowledge on many issues. "Ultimately, we will need approval from both the executive and Congress to introduce the digital currency of the central bank. [...] We see this as a process that will last at least several years, in which we will do the work and build public confidence in our analysis and final conclusion. "- added. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen consolidating again inside a narrow consolidation zone. Only a sustained breakout above the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 would change the outlook to more bullish, however after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of $20,374, the odds for a breakout higher are very low. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are positive, but the momentum is not strong at all. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,096 and $19,256. The swing low is seen at the level of $18,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,226 WR2 - $18,987 WR1 - $18,829 Weekly Pivot - $18,742 WS1 - $18,587 WS2 - $18,500 WS3 - $18,259 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294957
The Euro (EUR) Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

The Euro (EUR) Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:44
Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair had bounced from the swing low seen at the level of 0.9539 and is approaching the key short-term technical resistance located at the level of 0.9867. The nearest technical support is seen at 0.9812 and 0.9749. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 (swing high from August 11th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the down trend reversal is confirmed. Please watch the USDX as the correlation between this two markets (EUR/USD and USDX) is directly opposite. The short-term outlook for the EUR remains bearish until the swing high seen at 1.0389 is clearly broken. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 0.99372 WR2 - 0.97857 WR1 - 0.97189 Weekly Pivot - 0.96342 WS1 - 0.95674 WS2 - 0.94827 WS3 - 0.93312 Trading Outlook: The EUR is still under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue far below the parity level, towards the new multi-year lows. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of down room for the EUR to go as the bears keep making a new, multi-year lows.     Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294951
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

The GBP/USD Currency Pair Traded Almost Identical To The EUR/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:23
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded almost identical to the EUR/USD pair again on Thursday. Thus, the British currency has been growing for a whole week. With what exactly is growing, and not pretending to grow. From the lows of the current week (and at the same time the absolute lows), the pound has already managed to rise in price by 800 points. We spoke about such a movement in the context of the question of the beginning of a new upward trend. Now we can only hope that in the near future the market will not face a new portion of disappointing statistics or news. There was practically no important data yesterday. It is unlikely that a strong move up, which lasts four full days, can be linked to the US GDP report in the second quarter in the third assessment. GDP fell by 0.6%, but traders already knew that this would be the case. The American economy has been in recession for two quarters, but the dollar has already won back all conceivable and unimaginable factors of its own growth. Now the dollar's growth can only happen in case we receive new shocking news of a geopolitical nature. There were no problems with yesterday's trading signals. The first two signals in the form of rebounds from the Kijun-sen line were false. In both cases, the price went down by about 20 points, so Stop Loss should have been placed at breakeven on both short positions. At the same time, some of them might not work. In any case, the third buy signal should have been worked out. Perhaps it was risky, but the risk was worth it, given that for the first time in a long time, the pound began to rise. The pair then broke through the 1.0930 level and the Senkou Span B, moving up about 230 points in total through Thursday evening. This is the level of profit that traders could get by working out this signal. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new decline, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players can only intensify in the near future. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 30. We understand the reasons why the euro can resume its fall. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 30. The British pound, as usual, has a lot of problems. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 30. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair, as we see it now, has broken the downward trend on the hourly timeframe, as all key levels and lines have been overcome. We can only hope that now the pound will consolidate above the Senkou Span B line at least for a week. In this case, we can expect the formation of a new upward trend. Reasons for it are no longer required, since the pound is heavily oversold. For September 30, we highlight the following important levels: 1.0538, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442. Senkou Span B (1.0972) and Kijun-sen (1.0778) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The UK will publish a report on GDP for the second quarter, but given how briskly the pound is currently trading, we believe that this report will not affect the pair's movement in any way. In the US, we only have secondary reports, such as personal income and expenses of the American population and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323086
The Euro-Dollar (EUR/USD) Has Pair A Potential For Further Growth?

The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Trend Has Finally Begun To Change

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:19
EUR/USD 5M The euro/dollar was again trading very volatile and growing for no apparent reason on Thursday. From our point of view, this is a very positive moment for the euro, as this currency showed a convincing growth for the first time in a long time, which can now turn into a new upward trend. Better yet, traders were buying euros at a time when there were no fundamental or macroeconomic reasons to do so. And even more so geopolitical. This may indicate that the bears have had enough of selling and are now leaving the market. The rollback from the achieved 20-year lows is quite fast, sharp and strong, which also speaks in favor of the beginning of a new trend. In addition, the price managed to consolidate above the important lines of the Ichimoku indicator. Thus, now we could say that for some time the euro has gone into growth. Of course, the situation on the markets is now so unstable that the fall can resume at any moment, especially if new disappointing geopolitical news arrives. Nevertheless, if the growth continues today, this will be a strong step forward for the euro. In regards to Thursday's trading, everything was in order. The movement was again almost one-way and strong. Two buy signals were formed when breaking and rebounding from the critical line. The first one was closed by Stop Loss, as the pair managed to go up only 40 points. The second brought a profit of at least 70 points, and the position had to be closed manually in the late afternoon, on the way to the Senkou Span B line. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial traders, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not provide any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 30. We understand the reasons why the euro can resume its fall.Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 30. The British pound, as usual, has a lot of problems.Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 30. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The trend has finally begun to change to an upward one on the hourly timeframe. Despite the fact that almost all types of backgrounds remain a failure for the euro, as well as the economic prospects of the European Union, the market still cannot sell the euro forever. Perhaps now we are entering a 2-3 month period of growth. The main thing is that the pair manages to stay above the Senkou Span B. We allocate the following levels for trading on Friday - 0.9553, 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as the Senkou Span B (0.9804) and Kijun-sen (0.9689). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union will publish a report on inflation for September, which, according to experts, will grow to 9.7%. It is strange, but in the current circumstances, this report may support the euro, as it will further increase the likelihood of new European Central Bank rate hikes, and the market is now favorable to long positions on the euro. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323084
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:15
The British pound is trading around 1.1144. We can see three consecutive days of recovery and now it is facing the zone of 7/8 Murray (1.1230) which represents a likely technical reversal. A pullback towards the 1.1310 area (200 EMA) or towards the 1.1230 level (7/8) could be considered as a signal to resume selling. According to the daily chart, we can see that the British pound has three days of strong recovery and could now face overbought levels. This recovery could be momentary, as the main trend is still bearish and its rise higher will be seen by the bears as a good opportunity to sell. The intervention of the Bank of England caused strong volatility in the GBP/USD pair, which led to a recovery of almost 900 points. The BoE announced that it will make temporary purchases of UK bonds. This intervention will only relieve downward pressure momentarily, as the Fed is determined to raise its interest rate in the coming months. Therefore, we can sell the pound below the area of 7/8 Murray or the 200 EMA with targets at 6/8 around 1.0742. Additionally, the psychological level of 1.10 will be the key level for the British pound. We expect the British pound to trade around this area in the coming days and it could be seen as a pivot point in the event of a bullish or bearish move. Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294921
CarMax Inc And SolarEdge Technologies Inc Are The Biggest Losers At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

CarMax Inc And SolarEdge Technologies Inc Are The Biggest Losers At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:09
At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.54%, the S&P 500 fell 2.11% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.84%. The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 1.76 points (1.15%) to close at 154.68. Visa Inc Class A rose 0.88 points or 0.49% to close at 180.06. Merck & Company Inc shed 0.14 points or 0.16% to close at 86.64. The losers were Boeing Co shares, which lost 8.11 points or 6.08% to end the session at 125.33. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 4.97% or 1.65 points to close at 31.55 while Apple Inc was down 4.91% or 7.36 points to end at 142. .48. Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Everest Re Group Ltd, which rose 3.07% to 267.41, STERIS plc, which gained 2.76% to close at 167.29, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 2.73% to end the session at 65.18. The biggest losers were CarMax Inc, which shed 24.60% to close at 65.16. Shares of SolarEdge Technologies Inc lost 8.27% to end the session at 235.56. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 7.91% to 43.64. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Senti Biosciences Inc, which rose 50.71% to hit 2.11, Avalon Globocare Corp, which gained 25.85% to close at 0.70, and also shares of TuanChe ADR, which rose 25.31% to close the session at 3.07. The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 54.82% to close at 33.95. Shares of Lion Group Holding Ltd lost 49.25% and ended the session at 1.01. Quotes of Twin Vee Powercats Co decreased in price by 29.01% to 2.52. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2631) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (530), while quotes of 112 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,842 stocks fell, 956 rose, and 224 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.50% to 31.84. Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.07%, or 1.20, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.45, to $81.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.48, to $87.57 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.70% to hit 0.98, while USD/JPY edged up 0.21% to hit 144.46. Futures on the USD index fell 0.36% to 112.11.  Go to dashboard   Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294915
The Bullish Trend Is Currently Very Strong For The EUR/USD Pair

The Euro-Dollar Pair (EUR/USD): Market Is Waiting For The Price To Drop

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:06
Unfortunately, high-range fluctuations in currencies did not stop. Yesterday, the euro traded in a range of 180 points (the pound in a range of 350 points), closing the day with an increase of 81 points. This morning it reached the 0.9850 target. The technical situation has become even more complicated. Now the price may continue rising to a stronger level at 0.9950, strengthened by the MACD indicator line, or reverse from the current levels to the nearest support of 0.9752 and further to 0.9695. The Marlin Oscillator of the daily scale does not provide any hints on this account, it can turn around now, without reaching the zero line, it can turn around directly from it, which will mean the price will work out the resistance at 0.9950. The four-hour chart does not clarify the situation. Formally, the trend is upward, as the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but Marlin is turning down, the price exit above the indicator lines may turn out to be false. Consolidating under 0.9752 will most likely mean the end of the correction. Next, we are waiting for the price to drop to the levels: 0.9695, 0.9625, 0.9520.   Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323082
The Cable Market (GBP/USD) Is Likely To Show Signs Of A Bullish Trend

The Growth Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Slowed Down

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:01
The British pound continues to be in a fever on the news of the start of a softening operation by the Bank of England, which decided to buy long-term government bonds worth just over 1 billion pounds on its balance sheet. The amount of short-term QE is not large, rather, it is the market's psychological reaction to the signal from the central bank that the rate hike may slow down, as inflation issues are already receding into the background. Data on British GDP for the 2nd quarter will be released today. A decline of 0.1% is expected, or contraction of growth from 8.7% y/y to 2.9% y/y. The volume of mortgage lending in September is expected to decrease from 5.05 billion pounds to 4.90 billion, the volume of consumer lending may decrease from 1.42 billion to 1.40 billion. In the US, there will be data on income and expenses of individuals. The forecast for income in August is 0.3%, expenses are expected to grow by 0.2%. We believe that the market should have already calmed down from the BoE's "hints", as the debt market has already done, where yields on 10-year government bonds are now held at the level of September 26 (4.23%), and again turn to the overall economic picture Europe and England. Yesterday the pound rose by more than 220 points, and this morning the price reached the target level of 1.1170. The daily Marlin Oscillator slowed down in growth. It may very well be that from the level reached, the price will start to turn back to 1.0830. To reach 1.1305, it is necessary to get the price to settle above 1.1170, since the volatility is still decreasing. But in this case, it will happen next week. The limit of corrective growth seems to be the resistance of the MACD line (1.1460). On a four-hour scale, the price consolidated above both indicator lines, but growth slowed down at the target level of 1.1170. The Marlin Oscillator is turning down. A sign of the completion of the correction and a reversal of the trend will be the departure of the price under the MACD indicator line. The first target is 1.0830.   Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323080
Crude Oil And USD: Most Probably Many Will Keep An Eye On This Week's OPEC+ Meeting And The US Jobs Data

GBP/USD: There Are Two Important Releases Today: Final US GDP (Q2) And Unemployment Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 16:18
Today, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market after yesterday's fall. The Bank of England said it would make temporary purchases of UK government bonds with long maturities "to restore orderly market conditions." As part of the announced bond purchase program, the Bank of England will buy bonds with a maturity of more than 20 years: "initially, bonds worth up to 5 billion pounds will be bought at one auction." On Wednesday, the Bank of England said it had purchased £1.025 billion worth of bonds. "Subsequent auctions will be held every business day from 13:15 to 14:45 (GMT) through October 14." As a result of Wednesday's intervention to buy bonds by the Bank of England, the yields of European and US government bonds fell sharply. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury fell from 4.01% to 3.73%, rolling back from multi-year highs by 7.5%. Against the backdrop of falling yields on US government bonds, the dollar fell sharply on Wednesday. Its DXY index lost more than 1%, dropping from an earlier new local 20-year high of 114.74 to 112.50. Today, the markets are gradually calming down and "recovering" after yesterday's storm. The dollar, as we noted above, is recovering its positions, and its DXY index is near 113.25 as of this writing, while 10-year US Treasury yields is also growing again, which, in turn, is facilitated by the tough policy of the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that the base case for now is a 75 bps rate hike in November and a 50 bps hike in December. In his opinion, the lack of progress in curbing inflation means that by the end of the year, the Fed will have to set rates in the range 4.25%–4.5%. The Fed's super-tight monetary policy cycle is an undeniably strong positive fundamental factor for the dollar. As for the pound, the new policy announced yesterday by the Bank of England on the purchase of government bonds is "mixed" news for it, economists say. By buying bonds, the BoE actually suspended the planned quantitative tightening (QT). As you know, interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (purchases on the government bond market) are one of the main instruments of the central banks' monetary policy, as a result of which the quotes of the national currency, as a rule, are declining. Given yesterday's sharp rise in government bonds, the fall in dollar quotes and the fact that the Bank of England intends to conduct large-scale purchases of government bonds daily until October 14, regular bursts of volatility in financial markets are likely during the time period announced by the BoE (from 13:15 to 14:45 GMT ). Today also (at the beginning of the American trading session), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the final data on GDP growth for the 2nd quarter, and the U.S. Department of Labor will present the data on weekly jobless claims. This will also affect the dollar quotes and cause volatility in the market, especially if the data differs greatly from the forecast values.   As of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.0863, remaining in the zone of both short-term (below resistance levels 1.0998, 1.1438) and long-term (below resistance levels 1.2165, 1.2380) bear markets. Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323028
Known Indices - S&P 500, Nasdaq And Dow Jones Fluctuated On Thursday's Morning. What Can We Expect From SPX?

Known Indices - S&P 500, Nasdaq And Dow Jones Fluctuated On Thursday's Morning. What Can We Expect From SPX?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 16:08
US stock index futures decreased early on Thursday as the Bank of England's intervention was overshadowed by concerns over inflation and the global economy. S&P 500 futures fell by more than 1%, while NASDAQ futures lost 0.8%. Dow Jones futures lost about 0.5% early on Thursday. European stocks also fell, while Chinese stocks on US exchanges declined after the Hang Seng Tech index hit its all-time low.   US Treasury bonds went down as investors' expectations of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes pushed the yield up once again. Bond yields in the UK continued to rise, despite the Bank of England's intervention in the currency market. Earlier, UK prime minister Liz Truss defended her tax cut plans, triggering a panic in the market. This could lead to another major GBP sell-off, making long positions extremely risky. The yield of European bonds after the release of the latest German inflation data. Investors also paid close attention to the latest remarks by ECB policymakers. Read next: Tim Moe (Goldman Sachs) Comments On USD And Turbulent Times For Markets In General, Ole Hansen (Saxo)Talks Nord Stream | FXMAG.COM The European Commission announced its eighth sanction package against Russia, which will include a price cap on Russian oil. The new sanctions are imposed in response to Russia's continuing conflict against Ukraine. Tomorrow, Russia plans to annex territories under its control such as Donetsk and Luhansk, which will jeopardize the situation in the market even further and send risky assets downwards. In the meantime, Fed policymakers are likely to argue for the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance today. Statements of officials from several central banks are expected.   S&P 500 On the technical side, the S&P 500 has come under slight pressure once again after yesterday's upward movement. However, bulls have regained control of $3,677 and are now set to push the index towards $3,706, which would make an upward correction possible. The index must break above $3,706 to test $3,735. The S&P 500 failed to break above this level yesterday. A breakout above this range would extend the index's upward momentum towards the resistance at $3,773, as well as $3,801 further ahead. If the S&P 500 moves down and breaks through $3,677 and $3,643, it will drop towards $3,608, opening the way towards testing the support at $3,579. Below this area lies the low at $3,544, where the pressure on the index could ease slightly. Relevance up to 13:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323040
Forex: Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) - Let's Have A Technical Look - 29/09/22

Forex: Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) - Let's Have A Technical Look - 29/09/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 16:02
  Euro To US Dollar - Technical outlook: EURUSD rose through the 0.9750 highs during the New York session on Wednesday after testing the levels close to the 0.9535 lows earlier. The daily chart has confirmed a Morning Star bullish reversal pattern, which could push prices through 1.0200 at least. The potential remains for a push towards 1.0600 which is the Fibonacci 0.382 of the earlier bearish drop between 1.2350 and 0.9535. EURUSD has hit major Fibonacci support close to the 0.9550-0.9600 area as projected on the daily chart here. A significant target has been met just above the 0.9500 handle and the price could also produce a sharp bullish reversal. The bulls are now looking poised to hold prices above the 0.9535 mark and push through the 1.0200 initial resistance at least. Read next: Tim Moe (Goldman Sachs) Comments On USD And Turbulent Times For Markets In General, Ole Hansen (Saxo)Talks Nord Stream | FXMAG.COM EURUSD has interim support just above 0.9500 while resistance is seen at 1.0200, followed by 1.0365. Looking at the daily chart, a break above 1.0200 would signify that the bulls are under control and are looking to push through 1.0600. Only a consistent break below 0.9535 from here will bring back bears into the picture. Trading idea: Potential rally towards 1.0200 and up to 1.0600 against 0.9500 Good luck! Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294851
The Euro (EUR) Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

Forex: Euro To Us Dollar Is A Really Attractive Asset These Days. What Can We Expect From EUR/USD?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 15:57
The EUR/USD pair retreated a little today after reaching 0.9750. After its strong growth, a temporary retreat was natural. Now, the rate seems strongly bullish again as the Dollar Index ended its rebound. DXY's deeper drop should push EUR/USD towards new highs in the short term. As you already know from my analyses, the fundamentals could be decisive today. The US Final GDP may report a 0.6% drop while Unemployment Claims could come in at 215K in the last week above 213K in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Canadian GDP is seen as a high-impact event and it could have an impact on the USD as well. Read next: Tim Moe (Goldman Sachs) Comments On USD And Turbulent Times For Markets In General, Ole Hansen (Saxo)Talks Nord Stream | FXMAG.COM EUR/USD Retested The Buyers!     EUR/USD came back to retest the 0.9670 former high which stands as support. Its failure to stabilize under this level signaled strong upside pressure. Now, it is challenging the lower median line (lml). The next strong upside obstacle is represented by the 0.9750 former high. Technically, failing to take out the confluence area from around 0.9550 followed by the aggressive breakout through the downtrend line signaled a new swing higher in the short term. EUR/USD Forecast! Jumping and closing above 0.9750 could activate further growth and brings new long signals. If this scenario takes shape, the rate could move towards the median line (ml) again. Relevance up to 13:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294849
Tips For Traders On Short And Long Positions Of The GBP/USD Pair

Tips For Traders On Short And Long Positions Of The GBP/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 14:22
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.0818 and recommended making decisions on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. After a slight Asian correction, buyers of the pound returned to the market, counting on more global support from the Bank of England. The breakthrough and the reverse test of 1.0818 led to a good buy signal, which increased by more than 80 points. Then a resistance test of 1.0899 took place, from which it was possible to get a good sell signal. At the time of writing, the pound has already gone down more than 50 points. To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The pound buyers are counting on a dash up - they need to do something with the resistance of 1.0876, which they hit in the first half of the day. Let's see how the market reacts to the data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States and the change in GDP for the second quarter of this year. The fundamental background is not serious, so the bulls may be able to pull themselves together and break through to the weekly maximum. Statements by FOMC representatives James Bullard, Loretta Mester, and Mary Daly may slightly cool their ardor in the afternoon. In the case of a decline in GBP/USD, the optimal scenario for buying will be the formation of a false breakdown in the 1.0800 area, where the moving averages are playing on the buyers' side. This will give an excellent entry point to return to 1.0876. Only after getting above this range will it be possible to talk about building a further upward correction for the pair to move to 1.0958, where it will become more difficult for buyers to control the market. A more distant target will be the 1.1018 area, leading to a fairly large market capitulation of sellers. I recommend fixing profits there. In the event of a fall in GBP/USD against the background of hawkish statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve System and the absence of buyers at 1.0800, the pressure on the pound will return. If this happens, I recommend postponing long positions to 1.0738 and 1.0676. I advise you to buy there only on a false breakdown. You can open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.0617 or in the minimum of 1.0545 to correct 30-35 points within a day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Protecting the nearest resistance at 1.0876 remains an important task for the second half of the day. Yes, the bears showed themselves for the first time, and while trading will be conducted below this range, we may reach the support of 1.0800 – we need a good fundamental reason or another news about problems in the UK markets. In case of a re-growth of the pair, only the formation of a false breakdown at 1.0876 will confirm the presence of buyers in the market and return pressure on the pound, which forms a sell signal based on the development of a bearish trend and a decline to the nearest support of 1.0800. A breakthrough and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range, which was formed at the end of the first half of the day, will give an entry point for sale with a fall to a minimum of 1.0738, but a much more interesting target will be the 1.0676 area, where I recommend fixing profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.0876, the situation will return to the control of buyers, albeit only for a while, which will lead to an update of the next weekly maximum in the area of 1.0958. Only a false breakout at this level forms an entry point into short positions in the expectation of a downward correction. If there is no activity, there may be a jump up to the maximum of 1.1018. I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within a day. The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 20 recorded an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. However, this report does not consider what is currently happening in the market, so you do not need to pay much attention to it. The changes that have taken place in just a few days in the UK are now dictating the pair's direction. Last week, the Bank of England raised interest rates by only 0.5%. And they already regret it since, after that, the Ministry of Finance announced that they were ready to provide unprecedented assistance to households to cope with high energy prices. They also announced a large tax cut to support and stimulate the economy. However, they forgot to mention that this will further accelerate inflation, which the Bank of England is not very good at coping with. This provoked a pound sell-off by almost 1,000 points in two days. Investors took advantage of this moment and the well-depreciated pound and bought it off, but it is difficult to say that the market eventually found the bottom. There are a lot of statistics out of the US this week, which could put pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 160 to 41,289. In contrast, short non-commercial positions decreased by 13,083 to the level of 96,132, which led to a slight reduction in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to the level of -54,843 versus – 68,086. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1392 to 1.1504. Signals of indicators: Moving Averages Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating the bulls' attempt to build a correction. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator around 1.0900 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow. Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 13:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323036
BMO Capital Markets Lowered Its Price Forecast For The Next Two Years|Recession Fears Will Continue To Weigh On Silver

BMO Capital Markets Lowered Its Price Forecast For The Next Two Years|Recession Fears Will Continue To Weigh On Silver

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 12:38
Gold struggles to maintain a bullish momentum due to rising interest rates. This is why BMO Capital Markets lowered its price forecast for the next two years, saying the metal will fall 6% to $1,649 an ounce in 2023 and be down 4% to $1,615 an ounce in 2024. On the bright side, the bank's long-term outlook remains at $1,400 per ounce. It is, however, is even more pessimistic about silver, remarking that prices will average around $19.9 an ounce in 2023 and around $21.4 an ounce in 2024. The former is down 11% from previous forecasts, while the latter is 3% lower. In the long term, the bank expects silver to be around $20. Analysts comment that growing recession fears will continue to weigh on silver over the next two years, but in the long term the picture remains optimistic because growing demand for solar energy will provide long-term support for the metal. For gold, even though the outlook is lower, there is no complete decrease in price, and the rising economic uncertainty provides some support. With regards to other commodity assets, analysts are negative, especially on tin, saying that it will fall by 29% to $10.21 a pound next year. They are optimistic about uranium though, raising the forecast by 9% to $52 a pound next year.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323006
The Digital Trade Transparency Act of 2022| Bitcoin's Early Trend Continues

The Current Situation Around Bitcoin Is Completely Tied To The SPX Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 12:16
There is a gradual redistribution of capital in the global financial markets. The cryptocurrency market is attracting more and more attention from investors all over the world due to the worsening overall economic situation. Aggressive rate hikes by the central banks are rolling around the world, which leads to a lack of liquidity. At the initial stage of this process, high-risk assets and Bitcoin were the losers, but the situation is starting to change. Economic factors UK banks stopped issuing mortgage loans, which caused a negative reaction of the markets at the moment. It also led to the continuation of the upward trend of government bonds and had a negative impact on US government bonds. Stock indices and Bitcoin continued to decline as the policy of the UK central bank led to an increase in DXY. However, analyst James Butterfill later noted the growing trading volumes of BTC/GBP. The indicator reached the level of $881 million with average values around $70 million. There is a growing investor demand for Bitcoin amid unabated inflation and the onset of a recession. Santiment experts confirm a general increase in trading activity in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin trading volumes also reached their highest level since June 14, indicating some changes in the market and the emergence of a serious buyer. DXY&SPX At the same time, the crypto market is waiting for the start of a correction in the US dollar index, which should provoke a rally in Bitcoin and other digital assets. As a result of September 28, DXY formed a bearish engulfing, but technical metrics point to a resumption of bullish momentum. The S&P 500 managed to form a bullish engulfing pattern on September 28, which directly indicates an inverse correlation with the DXY. Technical indicators of the stock index signal the beginning of an upward movement of the indicator. However, given the similar signals on the DXY, one cannot be completely sure about the upward movement of the SPX price. BTC/USD Technical analysis Bitcoin continues to move within the $18.5k–$20.5k range. The cryptocurrency shows impulse attempts to go beyond this range in order to resume movement in a wider area. Technical metrics remain weak and indicate a flat price movement. The current situation around Bitcoin is completely tied to the SPX movement and the situation with US and UK government bonds . The cryptocurrency is still pulling towards the $20k mark, but there are no clear signals to play short or long. The $18.5k–$20.4k range is a raging storm, so we can expect movement in either direction. If the $20.4k level is broken, the path to the $22.8k–$23k range will open for Bitcoin. However, for now, this scenario is unlikely, as SPX buyout volumes remain low, and therefore the movement of the cryptocurrency will be constrained by the stock index. Conclusions Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are actively reacting to world events. The situation with UK banks is a clear proof of this. In the near future, we should expect an improvement in the overall situation for digital assets due to the correction of DXY and the aggravation of recession processes. Markets are reaching dangerous levels when rates are raised to record highs, but inflation continues to rage. The case with BTC/GBP trading volumes could be a prelude to a massive flow of capital into cryptocurrencies. However, this process will take time and will not be completed in the coming weeks.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323016
A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 12:03
Stock markets in Europe and North America bounced back on Wednesday, thanks to growing demand for US Treasuries, which put pressure on their yields and dollar. There were no special reasons for growth, but the closing of short positions after a multi-day sell-off helped the markets recover the previous losses. However, the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed pointed to a continued increase in interest rates in the foreseeable future, so stock futures started to decline again today. Minutes ahead of the European trading session, the yield on 10-year bonds grew by 3.15% to 3.824%, while futures fell from 0.36% to 0.70%. This is a strong bearish signal for the equity markets and a significant support factor for dollar. Due out today is Germany's data on consumer inflation and revised US GDP figures for the second quarter. Forecasts say the former will rise to 1.3% m/m and 9.4% y/y, which will prompt the ECB to raise rates again by 0.75%. But this is unlikely to stimulate a strong growth in euro as the currency is affected by the current economic situation in the Eurozone. The latter, meanwhile, is expected to show a slight decrease to -0.6%, but a much larger fall will put pressure on market sentiment, which will increase the sale of stocks and purchases of dollar. Forecasts for today: USD/CAD The pair is currently testing the level of 1.3715. If it rises above it, further growth to 1.3835 is possible, especially amid a decline in crude oil prices and general negative dynamics in the markets. USD/JPY The pair is currently testing the resistance level of 145.00. If it rises above it, further growth to 146.00 is possible, especially amid a general negative dynamics in the markets and resumption of growth in the yield of US Treasuries.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323002
As A Result Of The Bank Of Japan Intervention, The USD/JPY Pair Went Into A Steep Peak

As A Result Of The Bank Of Japan Intervention, The USD/JPY Pair Went Into A Steep Peak

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 11:03
The USD/JPY pair continues to tread in the 144-145 range, in which it has been stuck since the beginning of the week. Consolidation is pretty boring for both bulls and bears, but there is no trigger on the horizon yet. This year, the Japanese currency has fallen in price relative to its American counterpart by more than 20%. The reason for the weakening of the yen was the strong monetary divergence between the US and Japan. Last week, the dollar-yen pair set another high-profile record. After the Federal Reserve raised rates again, and the Bank of Japan left the indicator unchanged, the quote jumped to a new 24-year high at 145.90. The sharp fall of the yen forced the Japanese government to intervene in support of its national currency for the first time since 1998. As a result of the intervention, the USD/JPY pair went into a steep peak. However, the asset did not stay as a loser for long. It only took a couple of days for it to get back on track leading to the main goal for today – level 145. Since the beginning of this week, the dollar-yen pair has already come close to the cherished mark several times, but each time it rolled back. According to analysts, the main deterrent for dollar bulls at the moment is the risk of repeated currency intervention. Given the huge number of warnings from the Japanese authorities, traders still prefer not to get into trouble. However, the situation may change dramatically if a particularly powerful trump card in favor of the dollar appears on the market. You may ask: isn't it here now? Indeed, the dollar received strong support from the Fed last week. The US central bank not only raised rates, but also made it clear that it intends to tighten its monetary policy in the future. This week, American politicians have further intensified hawkish rhetoric, which contributed to the explosive growth of the dollar. The greenback has reached a new 20-year high, showing impressive dynamics in almost all directions, but not paired with the yen. The psychologically important 145 barrier still remains impregnable for the USD/JPY asset. This suggests that the market has already taken into account the further growth of discrepancies in the monetary policy of the Fed and the BOJ. Now traders need specifics: how big the gap in US and Japanese interest rates can become. If in the near future American officials again talk about raising the indicator by 100 bps, perhaps this will be the very impetus for the dollar, which will move it from the dead point. – Of course, the Japanese Ministry of Finance is aware of the current vulnerability of the yen. Probably, the authorities will continue to intimidate traders with interventions to deter speculators, Rabobank analysts warn. – Nevertheless, we are still guided in our 3-month forecast for the USD/JPY pair to the level of 147. As for the short-term dynamics of the asset, do not expect miracles in the coming days. Most experts believe that the dollar-yen pair will remain in the zone of broad consolidation. The technical picture for the USD/JPY 200-day exponential moving average at 141.20 scales higher. This indicates that the long-term trend is still stable. At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI) fluctuates in the range of 40.00-60.00, which indicates that the movement continues within the current range. For a decisive bearish reversal, the asset needs to fall below the previous week's low at around 140.35. Dollar bulls may push the pair higher after overcoming the previous week's high at 145.90. This may lead the quote to the August 1998 high at 147.67. And its breakthrough will send the dollar even further upward – to psychological resistance in the area of 150.00. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323012
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Events On The Pound (GPB) Market Continues To Affect Other Currencies, Such As Euro (EUR)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 10:55
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng's plan to support the economy met with an unexpected rebuff not only from British banks, but also from the Bank of England itself. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expressed concern that its implementation could trigger the onset of a global financial crisis, similar to what happened in 2008. In the end, even the House of Commons, where the majority of seats belong to the conservative party headed by Liz Truss, subjected this plan to the most severe criticism and demanded its total revision. All of these convinced investors that it will not be implemented in the version it is now, which somewhat calmed the markets and became a reason for a local rebound. But if the Cabinet of Ministers insists on going with the plan, the situation will quickly develop into another political crisis, which will have a negative impact on pound. If the plan is revised, then a correction may continue. The scale of what is happening with pound is so huge that it continues to affect other currencies, such as euro. EUR/USD hit a new local low, but sellers failed to hold on to this new value, prompting a rebound of about 200 pips. Nevertheless, the trend remains bearish, moreso since short positions surged after the recent price movement. Volatility was high in GBP/USD. It first fell below 1.0600, then returned to weekly highs. Even so, market mood is bearish, and there is a huge chance that it will remain trading within 1.0600/1.0900.   Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322988  
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

Today The Market Is Expecting A Further Increase In The GBP/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 10:26
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair The price test of 1.0653 occurred at the moment when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. This led to a decrease of over 90 pips and a test of 1.0567. Then, buying after a rebound from that level gave at least 40 pips of profit. There are no statistics on the UK today, so count on a further growth in GBP/USD. Yesterday's intervention of the Bank of England in the bond market definitely helped pound recover a bit, but the situation is still shaky, in which another massive sell-off may occur once the positive effect dries up. The upcoming US data on jobless claims and GDP may also raise dollar demand if the figures exceed expectations. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.0818 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0907 (thicker green line on the chart). Although growth is unlikely, a correction may occur if the Bank of England continues to interfere in the markets. In that case, traders could buy as long as the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Pound can also be bought at 1.0764, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0818 and 1.0907. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.0764 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0697. Pressure could return at any moment, but take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.0818, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0764 and 1.0697. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322998
A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

A Truce Between Cardano And Ethereum| Ethereum Movements

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:50
Crypto Industry News: The Cardano network has always been a competition to the Ethereum blockchain. Of course, this has translated into competition between communities centered around the two chains. This time, however, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson surprised everyone. He proposes a truce. In a Twitter thread, Charles Hoskinson shared his thoughts on Ethereum and its community. Let us recall that he cooperated with Ethereum (although only for six months and almost ten years ago). Perhaps because of his personal animosities, Hoskinson is sometimes critical of Ethereum. Then he founded Cardano. Today, he seems to be pained by the fact that the Ethereum community continues to ignore the advances Cardano has made over the years. "I've pointed out repeatedly that the top engineers of Ethereum have completely ignored Ouroboros in the last five years," Hoskinson wrote in a tweet. He further argued that this only harms the entire cryptocurrency and blockchain community. He urged users to refrain from falling into this trend, writing that "this means many users are now being forced to make design decisions that are detrimental to them, rather than helping them." "I think that's human nature. But at least we can make a choice not to give in to [the harmful trend]," he added. He further stated that "We don't need to hate anyone or develop bizarre, conspiratorial thinking to achieve our goals. In fact, Cardano does not need cryptocurrency to be successful. " The conciliatory attitude of Cardano's creator comes at an interesting moment when his network went through Vasil's hard fork. However, the project was criticized for a 3-month delay in implementing this change. At the same time, the Merge passed the Ethereum chain, but Vitalik Buterin's team waited for almost 2 years. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had bounced from the demand zone seen between the levels of $1,288 - $1,257, but the bounce was capped at the nearest technical resistance located at $1,358. After the aggressive and dynamic reversal around the level of $1,400, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,281, $1,267 and $1,255. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294769
The Red Note And Frozen Bitcoins| The BTC/USD Pair Has Bounced again

The Red Note And Frozen Bitcoins| The BTC/USD Pair Has Bounced again

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:45
Crypto Industry News: According to recent reports, South Korean authorities have ordered the OKX and KuCoin cryptocurrency exchanges to freeze funds associated with Terra's founder, Do Kwon. In total, the platforms froze over 5,000 BTC, which is around $ 60 million at the current market price of bitcoin. South Korean authorities have launched an investigation against the founder of Terry (LUNA) and the company behind the cryptocurrency, Terraform Labs, the website said. The country's services concluded that Do Kwon allegedly violated domestic securities laws and issued an arrest warrant for him. The International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) joined the efforts of the South Korean authorities and issued the so-called The Red Note, Kwon's actual arrest warrant. Interestingly, however, the most interested himself denies that he is hiding at all. "I am writing the code in my living room (...). As I said, I do not try to hide, I go for walks and shopping malls, there is no way that any [members of] CT have run into me in the last few weeks" - he wrote on Twitter. Now law enforcement has begun seizing Kwon's financial resources. According to media reports, founder Terry started transferring funds related to the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) from the wallet to the exchanges. LFG is an entity created by Terraform Labs to protect the course of the fallen algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD (UST). These funds were allegedly community controlled, with no control from Kwon or other company employees. However, a journalistic report suggests the funds were transferred from the wallet to the stock exchanges between September 15 and 18. Around 3,300 BTC went to KuCoin and around 1,950 to OKX. The funds in bitcoin were sent in a few transactions. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has bounced again from the narrow zone lows around the level of $18,640 towards the middle of the zone. Only a sustained breakout above the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 would change the outlook to more bullish, however after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of $20,374, the odds for a breakout higher are very low. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are positive, but the momentum is not strong at all. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,096 and $19,256. The swing low is seen at the level of $18,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,226 WR2 - $18,987 WR1 - $18,829 Weekly Pivot - $18,742 WS1 - $18,587 WS2 - $18,500 WS3 - $18,259 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294767
The GBP/USD Market And The Next Target For Them Is The Parity Level

The GBP/USD Market And The Next Target For Them Is The Parity Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:41
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has bounced 5.66% from the lowest level since 1985 located at 1.0352, however the bears had capped the bounce at the level of 1.0929 (first bounce) and 1.0914 (second bounce). The next technical resistance is located at 1.1210 and 1.1410 and only a sustained breakout above this level would change the outlook to bullish. On the other hand, the next target for bears is located at the parity level of 1.0000, so please keep an eye on this level. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0632 and 1.0538. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16907 WR2 - 1.11401 WR1 - 1.08850 Weekly Pivot - 1.05895 WS1 - 1.03344 WS2 - 1.00389 WS3 - 0.94883 Trading Outlook: The bears are still in charge of Cable market and the next target for them is the parity level. The level of 1.0351 has not been seen since 1985, so the down trend is strong, however, the market is extremely oversold on longer time frames already. On the other hand, in order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294765
The Euro Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

The Euro Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:38
Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 0.9539, but the bulls bounced strongly about 2.25% towards the level of 0.9750. No nearest technical support in view as the market hits the multi-year lows, however, the resistance is seen at 0.9811. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 (swing high from August 11th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the down trend reversal is confirmed. Please watch the USDX as the correlation between this two markets (EUR/USD and USDX) is directly opposite. The short-term outlook for the EUR remains bearish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 0.99372 WR2 - 0.97857 WR1 - 0.97189 Weekly Pivot - 0.96342 WS1 - 0.95674 WS2 - 0.94827 WS3 - 0.93312 Trading Outlook: The EUR is still under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue far below the parity level, towards the new multi-year lows. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of down room for the EUR to go as the bears keep making a new, multi-year lows.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294763
The Euro-Dollar Market: In The Current Situation It Is Hardly Possible To Say That The Situation Has Stabilized

The Euro-Dollar Market: In The Current Situation It Is Hardly Possible To Say That The Situation Has Stabilized

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:33
Several market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 0.9556 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market there. The German data was ignored and the bulls' return above 0.9556 at the beginning of the European session occurred without a normal reverse test, after which the level was smeared. The bears tried to protect 0.9586 in the afternoon and even formed a sell signal, but it never came to a major downward move. Only a false breakout in the area of 0.9699, to which the euro rose amid weak statistics on the US, made it possible to get an entry point for short positions. But even there the downward correction did not exceed 15 points. When to go long on EUR/USD: Another series of speeches and interviews by representatives of the European Central Bank is expected today. Little depends on their statements, since the central bank's strategy is clear and understandable to everyone, especially after ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday once again confirmed her hawkish attitude towards future policy. ECB Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos are speaking today. Much more interesting will be the data on the indicator of consumer confidence in the euro area, which is likely to decline over the reporting period, which will put even more pressure on the euro. The increase in the consumer price index in Germany in September this year, on the contrary, may trigger the euro's growth, as this will mean a direct increase in interest rates in the future. In case the pair goes down, only a false breakout in the area of 0.9646 creates a new buy signal. There are also moving averages, playing on the bulls' side. The target of the upward correction in this case will be the level of 0.9695, which was formed following the results of today's Asian session. A breakthrough and test from top to bottom of this range, along with strong statistics from Germany, could hit the stops of speculative bears, forming an additional signal to open long positions with the possibility of a surge up to this week's high at 0.9745. A more distant target will be resistance at 0.9807, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD falls, which is more likely, and the bulls are not active at 0.9646, the pressure on the pair will increase, which will lead to the continuation of the bearish trend. Strong US statistics will help push the euro to new yearly lows. In this case, the best decision to open long positions would be a false breakout around 0.9596. I advise you to buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound only from 0.9540, or even lower - in the region of 0.9490, counting on an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on EUR/USD: The bears missed the market, but in the current situation it is hardly possible to say that the situation has stabilized. Demand for risky assets in the face of growing geopolitical tensions will continue to be limited, and the prospects for the European economy will certainly not add confidence to investors in the next six months of the year. The bears' initial task is to protect the intermediate resistance at 0.9695. Forming a false breakout at this level will provide an excellent entry point for short positions, and weak data from Germany will allow for a sharper movement of the pair down to the 0.9646 area. A breakdown and consolidation below with a reverse test from the bottom up of this range creates another sell signal with the removal of bulls' stop orders and a larger fall to the 0.9596 area. A more distant target will be the area of 0.9540, where I recommend taking profits. If EUR/USD jumps during the European session, and there are no bears at 0.9695, the demand for the euro will return, which will lead to a more powerful upward correction. In this case, I advise you not to rush into short positions. The growth of EUR/USD will give a chance to test the resistance of 0.9745. In this scenario, I recommend opening shorts only if a false breakout is formed. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the high of 0.9807, or even higher - from 0.9853, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT report) for September 20 logged a decline in both short and long positions. These data already take into account the September meeting of the European Central Bank and a sharp increase in interest rates immediately by 0.75%, which affected the alignment of positions. However, it must be understood that these data do not take into account the Federal Reserve's recent meeting, which made a similar decision, which kept the gap between central banks' interest rates, increasing pressure on the euro. And in general: everything that is happening now with the eurozone economy is clearly reflected in the euro's rate, which has already fallen to the level of 0.95 and is not going to recover yet. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the world, which to a greater extent concerns the eurozone, will greatly slow down the European economy in the autumn-winter period and will surely lead it to recession in the spring of next year. It is not yet possible to talk about medium-term growth prospects for the euro. Even if bad fundamental data comes out in the US, and they will, it will not help the euro especially, as investors will still give preference to safe-haven assets and the US dollar. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 1,214 to the level of 206,564, while short non-commercial positions fell immediately by 46,500 to the level of 173,115. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position became positive and increased from -11,832 to 33,449. This indicates that investors are taking advantage of the moment and continue to buy cheap euros below parity, as well as accumulate long positions, counting on the end of the crisis and the pair's recovery in the long term. The weekly closing price increased and amounted to 1.0035 against 0.9980. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which leaves bulls a chance for a correction. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator in the area of 0.9790 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322992
The Same Time In 2021 S&P 500 And Nasdaq Amounted To Ca. 25% And 32% More Respectively

Dow Jones Index: A Corrective Decline That Will Take Years Has Begun

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:29
Today we will look at the long-term chart of the Dow Jones Index dating back to 1921, but the period we would like to focus on is from the 1932 low at 40.56 to the peak on January 2022 at 36,952. If our long-term count is correct, then we have a complete five-wave rally. A corrective decline that will take years has begun. Looking at the major corrections of 1932 - 2022 (90 years), we see the first correction from 1937 - 1942 (5 years). The next major correction stretched from 1966 to 1974 (8 years). Then, we had the 2000 to 2009 correction (8-9 years). Now the index is going through a correction as well. This correction is of a larger degree and therefore is likely to take at least 8 years and possibly even longer. The expected correction doesn't have to be very deep, but the rally from 40.56 to 36,952 does open up for a decline to near the bottom of wave 4 which was the 2009 low. If that is seen, then it is likely to terminate near 7,363, but a decline closer to the 50 to 61.8% corrective targets at 18,303 or maybe even closer to 13,993 is the most likely scenario, though that's also quite a distance to cover from the present 29,684 level. We are braced for hard times in the years ahead with some major changes to the society as we know it today.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294749
The Price Of USD/CAD Maintains A Bullish Bias Despite A Temporary Correction

The Price Of USD/CAD Maintains A Bullish Bias Despite A Temporary Correction

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 09:04
The USD/CAD pair plunged yesterday as the Dollar Index crashed after registering a strong leg higher. The price maintains a bullish bias despite a temporary correction. It could come back to test and retest the near-term obstacles trying to attract more buyers and accumulate more bullish energy. The pair was trading at 1.3656 at the writing above 1.3602 yesterday's low. Fundamentally, the pair crashed also after the US Pending Home Sales and the Prelim Wholesale Inventories came in worse than expected yesterday. Today, the Canadian GDP is expected to report a 0.1% drop, while the US Final GDP could register a 0.6% drop. The economic data could be decisive in the short term. The US Unemployment Claims indicator is expected to jump from 213K to 215K in the last week. USD/CAD Up-Channel! USD/CAD failed to stabilize below the broken uptrend line and under the median line (ml) signaling exhausted sellers. Poor Canadian data and better-than-expected US figures could increase the rate. The 1.3639 and 1.3602 levels represent downside obstacles. The false breakout through the channel's upside line technically announced a sell-off. USD/CAD Forecast! A new lower low, dropping and closing below 1.3602 activates more declines and brings short opportunities. On the other hand, by staying above the uptrend line and beyond 1.3639, the USD/CD pair may develop a new bullish momentum towards the R1 (1.3720) and up to the upper median line (uml).   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294745
In Currencies Other Than The US Dollar (USD), Gold Gained

Gold's Breakout May Announce An Upside Continuation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:55
The price of Gold retreated after reaching 1,662 yesterday. After its strong rally, a temporary drop is natural. The yellow metal could test and retest the near-term downside obstacles before trying to resume its leg higher. Fundamentally, the Canadian GDP stands as a high-impact event today. The economic indicator is expected to report a 0.1% drop versus the 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. In addition, the US Final GDP could register a 0.6% drop, while Unemployment Claims could come in at 215K in the last week. The fundamentals could move the markets later, so you should be careful. XAU/USD Natural Retreat! From the technical point of view, XAU/USD rallied after escaping from the minor down channel. Now, it has jumped above the major down channel's resistance. Validating its breakout may announce an upside continuation. The 1,654 - 1,659 area represented a resistance zone, so a minor retreat is natural. An upside continuation could be invalidated only if the rate fails to stay above the downtrend line and above 1,654. Gold Forecast! Staying above the broken downtrend line and making a new higher high, breaking above 1,662 validates an upside continuation and brings long opportunities.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294741
There Are Not Any Grounds For The Euro's (EUR) Growth

There Are Not Any Grounds For The Euro's (EUR) Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:49
EUR/USD 5M. The euro/dollar again showed very high volatility on Wednesday. The second test of the 0.9553 level took place, which is currently a 20-year low, but was a failure. After that, a fairly strong growth of the euro began, which theoretically could become the beginning of a new trend. If you remember, we said that a new trend should start abruptly and strongly, not imposingly. However, at the moment the price is still below both lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so the downward trend still remains. What caused the euro's growth. From our point of view, such a statement of the question is absolutely incorrect. After the euro has lost over 2500 points, a 100-150 points upward move could be a simple pullback. The pair cannot fall forever, there must be at least some pullbacks, and we don't even remember the corrections anymore. Possibly, this pullback was provoked by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, although we do not believe that he has changed the vector of his rhetoric dramatically. In any case, a rebound from the critical line will provoke a new round of decline. In regards to yesterday's trading signals, the situation was difficult. Traders tried to break through the level of 0.9553 throughout the European trading session, but failed to do so. Because of this, a fairly large number of signals were formed, most of which turned out to be false. What matters here is how traders interpreted these signals. They could be "seen" as buy signals or sell signals interspersed with buy signals. Long positions could eventually bring a good profit. In the second option, it was necessary to work out the first two signals, and they turned out to be false. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial traders, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not provide any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 29. The euro is falling down ahead of September 30 and amid the general geopolitical background. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 29. Theater of the absurd with Nord Stream. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 29. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The bears' prospects remain just fine on the hourly timeframe, given that the pair continues to remain below the key Ichimoku lines. Yesterday's rise should not be misleading. Now, if Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen are overcome, then it will be possible to speak of an upward trend, at least a small one. But so far it hasn't. We highlight the following levels for trading on Thursday - 0.9553, 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as the Senkou Span B (0.9804) and Kijun-sen (0.9714) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Several speeches by representatives of central banks will take place in the European Union and the United States, and only secondary macroeconomic statistics are scheduled for today. In any case, the euro continues to be traded in a very volatile manner, so traders clearly do not need help now. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322970
Gold: The Main Trend Is Still Townward But The Bullish Bias Could Resume Again

Gold: The Main Trend Is Still Townward But The Bullish Bias Could Resume Again

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:46
Early in the American session, gold is trading at around 1,643.74. A strong technical bounce is seen after the price reached the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1,614.71. Gold is located above 0/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA located at 1,626. This gives gold a positive outlook and it is likely that in the next few hours it will continue to rise and may reach the 200 EMA located at 1,656. It could even reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1,660. US Treasury bond yields fell sharply as the US dollar technically corrected away from recent highs, and this helped gold rally from support at 1,614. The main trend is still downward according to the daily, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. A sharp break of the downtrend channel could accelerate the bullish move and the price could hit the resistance of 2/8 Murray at 1,687. On the other hand, in case there is a pullback to the top of the downtrend channel around 1,656-1,660, it could be an opportunity to sell and gold could fall back towards the support of 1,625. The fact that gold is now above the 21 SMA means that there could be a technical bounce around this area. From this level, the bullish bias could resume again. Finally, if gold loses the support located at 1,626 (21 SMA), it could come under bearish pressure again which could push the price to the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1,610. Gold could even fall to the psychological level of 1,600.   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294739
Apple Will No Longer Seek To Increase Production

Apple Will No Longer Seek To Increase Production

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:37
The American stock market continues to be in a fever. If traders are trying to buy out cheaper assets on the premarket, one could observe another market sale of risky assets during the regular session recently. In a situation where the fragile balance of the Federal Reserve System between restraining demand sufficiently to slow inflation is a rather laborious process, many economists continue to predict a recession for the economy, discouraging the desire to buy risky assets. Statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve System also do not betray optimism. Today, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, said: "To keep inflation low and stable, we must balance our mandate with full employment." "The attempt to cope with reducing inflation without harming the labor market has failed. While we are trying to do everything as gently as possible so as not to provoke an economic downturn, if this is not necessary, we are ready to act with full determination — this is a struggle." Daly's comments about the Fed's desire to reduce inflation echo the comments of some of her colleagues who spoke earlier. The head of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, warned that inflation is a "serious problem" and that confidence in the central bank is under threat. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers would not give up on fighting inflation, despite the pain it could cause the US economy. Premarket Apple's rejection of plans to increase production of its new iPhone 14 line led to a sharp collapse in shares in the premarket. The company made this decision after the expected surge in purchases of the new iPhone did not happen. Apple shares fell 3.7% in premarket trading. According to the report, Apple will no longer seek to increase production by 6 million units in the year's second half as planned. Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million units, roughly in line with Apple's forecast and production volume for last year. The report also affected Apple's shipments and manufacturers. Shares of key chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell about 2.3% before the market opened. Shares of Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, sank about 2.9%. Biogen shares rose 45.6% in premarket trading after the company announced that its experimental drug for Alzheimer's disease dramatically slowed the progression of the disease, reducing cognitive and functional impairments by 27%. Lyft has said it will suspend hiring until the end of this year. This follows the company's previous statement that it would "significantly" slow down hiring as it seeks to cut costs. Lyft shares fell 2.5% in premarket trading. Ocugen securities rose 8.2% in the premarket after the drugmaker announced a licensing agreement with Washington University in St. Louis for developing, commercializing, and producing its intranasal vaccine against Covid-19. BlackBerry reported smaller-than-expected quarterly losses and earnings that beat analysts' forecasts, but the cybersecurity communications software company's revenue fell amid weak customer spending. As for the technical picture of the S&P500, after yesterday's regular sell-off, traders managed to regain control of the $3,643 level today and have already set their sights on $3,677, which leaves hope for an upward correction. To build it up in an attempt to find the bottom, the bulls need to return to the level of not only $ 3,677 but also $3,704. Only after that will it be possible to count on a breakthrough in the area of $3,744. The breakdown of this range will support a new upward momentum, already aimed at the resistance of $3,773. The furthest target will be the area of $3,801. In the case of a downward movement, a breakdown of $3,643 will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,608 and open up an opportunity to update the support of $3,579. Below this range, you can bet on a larger sell-off of the index to a minimum of 3,544, where the pressure may ease a little.   Relevance up to 15:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322944
Will The European Currency (The Euro) Fall Indefinitely?

Will The European Currency (The Euro) Fall Indefinitely?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:32
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its decline for most of Wednesday. In principle, almost every day, the article can be started with the same words because if a couple of weeks ago we often drew traders' attention to the almost daily fall of the euro, now this currency is updating its 20-year lows every day. Thus, if someone thought that the meetings of central banks were left behind and it was possible to breathe more freely for a while, he was mistaken. Recall that most factors that brought the euro currency so low continue to be relevant. And some are also increasing their pressure on risky assets. The market very cheerfully ignores the news and data that could provide hypothetical support for the euro currency. That is, we get a situation where there are plenty of reasons for the fall of the euro currency, and those factors that could provide support do not affect the mood of traders. Almost a stalemate. From the technical side, everything is also clear. We see strong downtrends on almost all timeframes. If some correction or rollback occurs from time to time on the smallest TF, then on the older TF, it is already as rare as the New Year. And what do we get in the end? The European currency is practically worthless and falling non-stop. We have already said that if we try to take a sober look at the economic situation in the EU and the US, the picture turns out to be not so unambiguous in favor of the dollar. The recession has already begun in the US, and the Fed will not end its aggressive monetary approach. In the European Union, recent quarters have been positive, although GDP growth has been small. However, it was, so all the talk about the "energy recession," about the freezing of Europe this winter, the shutdown of many enterprises, and the popular revolt due to high prices for electricity and heat are just reflections, reasoning out loud. All this may be avoided. But again, the market does not even consider the hypothetical possibility that everything in Europe may not be so bad (we are not talking about some backward African country). Christine Lagarde's speeches – the "hawkish" attitude persists. The betting situation is also ambiguous. A few months ago, when the Fed was actively raising its rate and the ECB was impressively preparing for the first increase in 11 years, it was possible to understand why the euro currency was falling. But now, the ECB has already raised the rate twice and will actively and aggressively raise it at all the next meetings this year. That is, the gap between the rates, at least, has stopped growing. But the euro is still falling, and the dollar is still rising. European inflation is not higher than American inflation, but the euro is still falling, and the dollar is growing. What if, as a result, the Fed rate rises to 4.5% and the ECB rate rises to 4.25%, the European currency will fall indefinitely? From our point of view, the main problem with the European currency is geopolitics. And not only the European currency. We are ready to repeat this daily because all other factors no longer look as significant as geopolitics. Maybe someone does not believe in a global war, but this option is allowed by the markets, investors, and traders. If geopolitical tensions increase, then market participants try to transfer their capital to the most stable and secure currency (or asset). That is why we see the endless growth of the dollar because now there is more talk about nuclear war (or a war between Russia and NATO) than any other news. What kind of mood should traders be in with such a background? Moreover, the dollar is not just the world's reserve currency. The States (the issuer of the dollar) are located very far from the conflict. Everyone remembers that during the Second World War, the US economy practically did not suffer, so it had the opportunity to actively support its allies by providing them with weapons and equipment. The same thing can happen now. The European Union is too close to the war zone and may even accidentally become involved in the conflict (history has also seen such examples). In any case, it is in Europe that the military conflict is now. Therefore, Europe is suffering first of all. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last five trading days as of September 29 is 128 points and is characterized as "high." Thus, on Thursday, we expect the pair to move between 0.9525 and 0.9776 levels. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals the resumption of the downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 0.9644 S2 – 0.9521 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 0.9766 R2 – 0.9888 R3 – 1.0010 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend. Thus, new short positions should now be considered with a target of 0.9521 if the Heiken Ashi indicator is reversed. Purchases will become relevant no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average with a target of 0.9888. Explanations of the illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) identifies the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Based on current volatility indicators, volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. The CCI indicator—its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322974
The Bank Of England's (BoE) Intention To Spend £65bn To Stabilize Financial Markets

The GBP/USD Could Resume The Bullish Bias And Could Reach The Top

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:29
Early in the European session, the British Pound (GBP/USD) is trading at around 1.0795. A reversal is going on after the price reached the high of 1.0914 in the American section. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the break of the pennant pattern that was formed after the drop on September 26. The US dollar fell very sharply in the American session yesterday from all-time highs of 114.71 and dropped to a low of 112.50. This technical correction encourages the recovery of the GBP/USD pair. For the outlook to remain positive, the pound must consolidate above 1.0740. If a technical bounce around 6/8 Murray (1.0742) occurs in the next few hours, GBP/USD could resume the bullish bias and could reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1.1025. The rally seen yesterday from the low of 1.0538 to the high of 1.0914 could be a sign that the bearish trend has ended and the pound could start recovery in a few days. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for a technical bounce around the 21 SMA located at 1.0742. This area has become a strong support for the British pound which could suggest a buying opportunity, with targets at 1.0930 and at the psychological level of 1.1000. The price could even reach the resistance of 1.1050 (top of the bearish channel). On the contrary, in case the British pound makes a close below 1.0740 on the daily chart, it could mean the resumption of the bearish movement and GBP/USD could reach the level of 1.0538 printed yesterday in the European session and could fall to the low of the month at 1.0324.     Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294731
Will Today's The Manufacturing PMI Data Affect The Euro (EUR)?

Technical Analysis Of The Movements Of The EUR/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.09.2022 08:19
Yesterday there was a sharp and strong correction in the yields of US government bonds. Yields on 5-year bonds fell from 4.19% to 3.97%, returning to levels of the 23rd. Following the yields, the stock market also corrected – the S&P 500 grew by 1.97%. Oil and gold rose. The euro added 143 points. The price reached the target level of 0.9752, reversed from it and is now breaking through the support at 0.9695. We believe that the correction has ended due to the large price growth and strong resistance. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down. We are waiting for the price to overcome the supports 0.9625, 0.9520 and reach the level 0.9404. We expect a longer correction from this level. It is close to the February 2000 low (0.9399), which, taking into account the error in the 22-year history, can be taken as coinciding levels. On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate below the level of 0.9695. The Marlin Oscillator is trying to move back into negative territory. We also note that yesterday's growth occurred under the balance indicator line (red), which indicates a purely corrective nature of this movement.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322982
Ethereum Is Seen To Be Working On Its Recent Bearish

Ethereum Is Seen To Be Working On Its Recent Bearish

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 14:09
Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped close to $1,250 intraday on Wednesday before finding some support. The crypto bounced through the $1,305-10 zone thereafter and is seen to be easing off a bit towards $1,290 at this point in writing.The bulls might be inclined to push through the $1,540-50 levels at least before giving in to the bears again. Also, note that the backside of the support trend line would offer resistance at around $1,550. Ethereum earlier dropped through $1,220 after reversing from $2,031 seen on the 4H chart here. The possibility still remains for a strong rally to carry prices above the $2,031 resistance in the next several trading sessions. The bulls need to break above the $1,800 initial resistance to confirm a further upside thereafter. Ethereum is seen to be working on its recent bearish swing between $1,800 and $1,220. The potential resistance zone is seen towards $1,550 which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop (not shown here). Only a break above $1,670-1700 will confirm that the bulls are back in control. Trading idea: Potential rally through $1,550 at least against $1,000 Good luck!   Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294640
CarMax Inc And SolarEdge Technologies Inc Are The Biggest Losers At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

High Prices Continue To Put Pressure On National Economies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 13:06
Markets tried to recover from the recent sharp sell-offs, but failed. And after a highly volatile trading session, European and US stock indices ended with mixed dynamics. The main reason is the confidence of investors that not only the Fed, but also a number of other world central banks will aggressively raise interest rates, trying to tame galloping inflation. In fact, Bank of England Member Huw Pill and Fed members Neel Kashkari and James Bullard spoke about the need to fight high inflation by any means because high prices continue to put pressure on national economies. This indicates that the two central banks are not putting their utmost priority on economic growth, but on curbing inflation. That is why it will not be surprising if interest rates continue to increase in the foreseeable future, which will cause further sell-offs in stock markets and rise in dollar. The upcoming inflation data in the Euro area will also stir up the markets again, especially if there is a slight slowdown in growth or an increase. It will lead to a new wave of sales in euro in the forex market. Forecasts for today: AUD/USD The pair is currently trading at 0.6375. A consolidation below may lead to a further decline to 0.6245. XAU/USD Gold is testing the level of 1621.00. A drop below it could cause a price drop to 1600.00.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322868
The Tightening Of Monetary Policy Will Continue For Some Time

The Tightening Of Monetary Policy Will Continue For Some Time

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 13:01
Details of the economic calendar for September 27 Orders for durable goods in the United States decreased by 0.2% during the period of August. This is not the best indicator, but they expected a reduction of 0.9%. The divergence of expectations served as a stimulus for the growth of dollar positions. At the same time, data on new home sales in the US were also published, which recorded a strong growth of 28.8% in August. In addition to macroeconomic statistics, there were quite a lot of comments from the Fed, where everyone unanimously talks about the risks associated with inflation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans: - The average forecast for the interest rate at the end of the year is between 4.25%–4.5% and 4.6% by the end of next year. - For us, task number 1 is to bring inflation under control. - The tightening of monetary policy will continue for some time. - 4.5% unemployment in the United States is still a good level. - At some point in time there will be a need to reduce the rate of interest rate increases. But now it needs to be further improved. - This year, our forecasts for an objective increase in interest rates by another 100–125 basis points. - We see long-term inflation expectations at acceptable levels. - I expect that the level of inflation will noticeably decrease within two years. - I expect a slight increase in GDP this year. Former New York Fed President William Dudley: - The Fed has made it clear that it intends to fight inflation. - During the September meeting, the regulator clearly indicated that they are ready to raise the interest rate in order to return inflation to an acceptable level. - Based on the forecasts of the Fed, GDP growth is expected in the coming years. - It looks like there is no clear consensus among the Fed representatives on how long they will continue to fight inflation. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard: - We have serious problems with inflation in the country. - The credibility of the inflation targeting regime is under threat. - The labor market is very strong, which gives us the opportunity to fully focus on inflation. - We must correctly and timely respond to inflation. - At subsequent meetings, we certainly must continue to raise the interest rate. - The possible maximum interest rate is about 4.5%. - We'll probably have to stick with the high stakes for a while. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: - We believe that the markets understand what the Fed is doing. - Representatives of the Fed are united and committed to reducing inflation. - We are moving at a fast pace, it is dangerous. - The Fed is working to bring inflation back to 2%. We need to keep raising interest rates. - We need to further tighten monetary policy to see evidence that we are succeeding in reducing inflation, and move on to slow down. - I'm not sure that the current monetary policy is tight enough. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker: - We are working to achieve an acceptable level of inflation in the country. - The housing market is a key segment in the growth of inflation - Inflation in the country is very high in many categories San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: - Our goal is to return inflation to the level of 2.0%. - The level of inflation is very high, we must properly assess the current situation. Conclusion based on the comments of the Fed representatives Based on the above material, a clear "hawkish" approach is visible. The regulator intends to fight high inflation by all possible means, which they point out in their statements. For this reason, we see a further decline in the US stock market, as well as an increase in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Analysis of trading charts from September 27 The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its decline after a short pullback. As a result, the local low of the downward cycle at 0.9553 was updated, which indicates the prolongation of the main trend. The GBP/USD currency pair ignores the fact that it is treading water at historical lows. In fact, the technical signal of oversold is covered by a high rush for short positions on the part of speculators. Economic calendar for September 28 Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, all hope is for the information flow, where speeches by the Fed and ECB representatives are expected again. Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 28 Stable price retention below 0.9550 will lead to a subsequent decline. In this case, the technical signal about overheating of short positions can be ignored by market participants. A possible prospect of a move is a decline towards the lows of 2001 and 2000. An alternative scenario of market development is considered by traders in the form of another price rebound from the 0.9550 value area, as it happened at the beginning of the trading week. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 28 In this situation, keeping the price below the 1.0600/1.0630 area in a four-hour period may well lead to a subsequent decline towards the recent local low. It is worth noting that with such overheating of short positions, spontaneous consolidations may occur, which, in turn, will lead to a technical pullback. Until the quote is stable below the control area, the risk of the subsequent formation of the amplitude of 1.0630/1.0930 remains. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322890
Can We Expect Better Movements In The European Currency (EUR)?

Can We Expect Better Movements In The European Currency (EUR)?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:54
The EUR/USD pair resumed the falling process on Tuesday, returned to the corrective level of 423.6% (0.9585), and today – it consolidated under the level of 0.9585, simultaneously updating its low for 20 years. Thus, after literally a one-day rest, bear traders went to business again and continued to get rid of the euro. In the first two days of the week, I would single out only two speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde from the important events. You can say as much as you like that the ECB was late at the beginning of the fight against high inflation, but still, it has raised its interest rate twice and promised that there would be several more increases in 2022. From my point of view, this is "hawkish" rhetoric that could support the European currency. But how can you expect something positive from the euro currency if there are no bulls on the market and bears continue to sell daily? Thus, Lagarde's words that the ECB will continue to raise rates, continue to adhere to the course of price stability, and influence high demand did not affect traders. And this means that the European currency will most likely continue to do so, which updates its lows in a day. It can also be assumed that the comments of the FOMC representatives force traders to continue selling euros. In particular, James Bullard said yesterday that the rate should be raised to at least 4.5%. However, when the dollar has been growing without stopping for months, it is unlikely to receive specific information support every day. Bullard's speech may or may not have had a favorable effect on the dollar. There is no difference since the US currency continues to grow anyway. But the news about possible sabotage on the Nord Stream pipeline could cause new sales of the euro currency, as it puts the heating season in the European Union under even greater threat. It is unclear who is behind this sabotage and whether it was a sabotage, but now gas supplies to Europe have been stopped through this pipeline. On the 4-hour chart, the pair dropped to the corrective level of 161.8% (0.9581). Rebounding from this level will favor the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the upper line of the downward trend corridor. However, how strong will this growth be if the information background tells traders to do only one thing – sell euros? Fixing the pair's exchange rate below the level of 0.9581 will increase the chances of continuing the euro fall even more. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: Last reporting week, speculators closed 1,214 long contracts and 46,500 short contracts. This means that the "bearish" mood of the major players has weakened and ceased to be so. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators now stands at 206 thousand, and short contracts – 173 thousand. So now the mood of the major players is bullish, but do you see the euro showing growth? In the last few weeks, the chances of the euro currency's growth have been gradually growing, but traders are more actively buying the dollar, not the euro. The euro currency has not been able to show strong growth in the last few months. Therefore, I would now bet on important descending corridors on the hourly and 4-hour charts. I recommend expecting the growth of the European currency after closing the quotes above them. News calendar for the USA and the European Union: EU - ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech (07:15 UTC). US - speech by the head of the Fed, Mr. Powell (14:15 UTC). On September 28, the calendars of economic events of the European Union and the United States contain one interesting entry each. A new performance by Christine Lagarde and a new performance by Jerome Powell. The influence of the information background on the mood of traders today may be average in strength. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations to traders: I recommended selling the pair when rebounding from the level of 1.0173(1.0196) on a 4-hour chart with targets of 0.9900, 0.9782, and 0.9581. All these goals have already been worked out. New sales – at closing under 0.9585. I recommend buying the euro currency when fixing quotes above the level of 1.0173 on a 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0638.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322910
The Fed Plans To Address The Regulation Of Unattended Wallets

The Fed Plans To Address The Regulation Of Unattended Wallets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:36
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said that the central bank is not going to issue a digital dollar anytime soon. "We do not see ourselves making that decision for some time," Powell said on Tuesday, speaking remotely about the role of central banks in digital markets to global financial leaders and cryptocurrency regulatory experts attending a conference in Paris. Powell indicated that the central bank would instead work in collaboration with Congress and the executive branch to assess policy and technology issues. This includes a multi-year period during which the Fed will focus on "building public confidence in our analysis and ultimate conclusions, which we certainly haven't reached yet." The central bank chairman also said the Fed would need White House and Congress approval to proceed with issuing a digital dollar. Regarding the criteria required for a central bank to create a CBDC, Powell identified four key characteristics: intermediation, privacy protection, identity verification, and interoperability. "We would be looking to balance privacy protection with identity verification, which has to be done in today's traditional banking system as well." Powell said. According to him, the Fed's sharp interest rate hike this year contributed to the collapse of some stablecoins and a significant drop in the value of cryptocurrencies, which led to the onset of a "crypto winter" and revealed "significant structural issues" that exist in decentralized finance (DeFi). Moreover, he said that the ongoing decline in the cryptocurrency market gave regulators more time to fully assess the capabilities of the digital dollar, identify weaknesses and adopt appropriate rules, noting that the crypto winter did not have a significant impact on financial stability and the banking system as a whole. "This demonstrates the weaknesses and work that needs to be done," Powell said, referring to problems with the structure and transparency of DeFi. "Crypto winter gives us a little bit of time. That situation will not persist indefinitely." Issues such as the need to regulate unattended wallets or algorithms have been identified as examples of issues requiring more work. Powell emphasized the need to develop appropriate regulations in the future as DeFi gains popularity and attracts more retail investors.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322884
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

The Situation Around The World Force Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:29
Everything is relative in this world. Although gold has lost about 11% of its value in 2022, it is better than stocks or bonds. What, no matter how the precious metal, is a means of protecting wealth and insurance against inflation? Even despite the extremely unfavorable background, XAUUSD retreats reluctantly. The bulls are fighting for every dollar, and as the global recession approaches, the chances of saving gold increase everyday. Since the start of the Fed's monetary policy tightening cycle, long-term inflation expectations have been securely anchored at around 2.5%, which is what the Central Bank required. At the same time, aggressive rate hikes around the world turned into a meteoric rally in bond yields. The cost of storing precious metals in ETFs is growing, and it does not generate interest income. Should we be surprised at the outflow of gold from specialized exchange-traded funds? The 10-year US Treasury yield, for the first time since 2010, exceeded the 4% mark. With inflation expectations at anchor, real debt rates are climbing ever higher. In such conditions, gold usually falls like a stone, but now it is resisting. Even against the backdrop of the rapid strengthening of the US dollar, the US dollar receives preferences both as a safe-haven asset and as a currency whose Central Bank is conducting aggressive monetary restrictions. The precious metal should be seriously affected in such conditions, but it clings to any straw. Dynamics of gold and US dollar But the Fed is not going to stop! St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the federal funds rate should reach 4.5% as soon as possible as confidence in the Fed is under threat. Indeed, there is an opinion that gold will start to rise after the Central Bank realizes that it cannot control inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will not repeat the same old mistakes. Kashkari said the Fed decided in the 1970s that it had done its job, looking at slowing inflation and the economy, and was punished for it. His colleague, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, says rates will hit a ceiling by spring, after which the central bank will be able to sit on the sidelines. Looking at rising bond yields, a stronger US dollar, and hawkish rhetoric from FOMC members, hedge funds are never tired of getting rid of gold. "Bearish" sentiment in the market reached a 4-year high. As of September 20, speculators reduced the size of net longs to the lowest level since November 2018. In my opinion, the reluctance of XAUUSD to fall as fast as the US securities market requires, indicates that the risks of recession and the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine force investors to keep precious metals in portfolios. Technically, on the daily chart of gold, quotes approached the previously indicated target at $1,600 per ounce at arm's length. I believe that the potential of the downward movement is not revealed, and the expected stop will be at the level of $1,590 or $1,575. The recommendation is to keep shorts.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322882
The USD/JPY Pair Has Potential For Further Bigger Rally Towards Upside References

The Japanese (JPY) Currency Shows Strong Resistance Against The Dollar (USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:24
The dollar is again rushing like a tank in almost all directions. The yen is still on the defensive, but, apparently, the forces are already running out. Most analysts predict victory in this fight for the greenback. USD is tearing up and rushing The greenback showed impressive growth at the start of Wednesday. It jumped 0.5% at the beginning of the Asian session and reached a new 20-year high at 114.70. The key driver for the dollar was a sharp surge in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. Today, the indicator has exceeded 4% for the first time in 12 years. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials contributed to the rapid rise in yields. Yesterday, three American politicians spoke out in favor of a more aggressive rate hike. Moreover, one of them, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, announced the need to raise interest rates to the range of 4.50-4.75% in order to return inflation to the 2% target. Recall that now the interest rate in the United States is at the level of 3.0-3.25%, and the growth of consumer prices on an annualized basis is 9.1%. Of course, the fact that the Fed has to further strengthen its anti-inflation campaign cannot but please dollar bulls. Today they have become more active on almost all fronts. The greenback showed parabolic growth paired with the New Zealand dollar (+1%), the British pound (+0.9%), the Australian dollar (+0.8%) and the euro (+0.4%). The only hard nut for the greenback was the Japanese yen. The JPY, which has fallen against the USD more than other currencies this year, is holding surprisingly steady on Wednesday morning. At the time of release, the dollar-yen pair was trading at 144.70, which is 0.05% lower than the closing price of the previous day. The fragility of the yen The Japanese currency shows strong resistance against the dollar. However, there are no significant fundamental reasons that would contribute to the yen's growth. Most analysts associate the current strength of the JPY with the immunity received from the Japanese government. Recall that last week, for the first time since 1998, Japan intervened in support of its national currency. The politicians were forced to take such a step by a new sharp collapse of the JPY exchange rate. The yen was sent into free fall by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who announced the continuation of an ultra-soft policy, despite the next rate hike in America. On the dovish decision of the BOJ, the USD/JPY pair broke through the psychologically important level of 145, which turned out to be a red line for the Japanese authorities. According to analysts, Japan will continue to zealously defend this peak and, if it is taken, will again intervene in the market. The risk of intervention is the only saving straw that yen bulls are clinging to now, while there are many more negative factors contributing to the further decline of the JPY. The main pressure on the Japanese currency continues to be exerted by the increasing divergence in the monetary policy of the Fed and the BOJ. Currently, the difference in US and Japanese interest rates is 4%, and everything points to its further growth. Fed officials are actively lobbying for a more aggressive policy, while the BOJ shows no signs of capitulation. The minutes of the BOJ's July meeting were published this morning. According to it, the board members still do not see the need to fight inflation by raising rates, despite the global tightening trend. Many experts believe that the downward trend in the yen will continue until Kuroda retreats from his outsider stance. The technical picture for the USD/JPY pair The 3-week-old descending resistance line around 145.00 is the nearest key obstacle that keeps the USD/JPY pair on its way to a new 24-year high. Bulls for the USD/JPY pair led the price to the level of 145 during the Asian session, but the chances of closing the dollar above this mark are still small. If bulls fail to break above the 145 mark in the short term, there may be a significant risk of a strong downward correction in the coming sessions.   Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322898
The Third Quarter Ends With Losses, U.S. Dollar (USD) Strength Is Worrying

The Prospects Of Foreign Currencies Against The US Dollar (USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:19
Hello, dear colleagues. The main event in September was an increase in the federal funds rate by 0.75%. Commenting on this decision, adopted unanimously, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank is ready to continue raising rates until inflation starts to decline and the Committee receives data on the sustainability of the decline in inflation expectations. A few days later it became clear that the decision taken by the Open Market Committee could lead to serious, if not catastrophic, consequences for the entire global financial system and its most important element — the FOREX market. Before discussing the prospects of foreign currencies against the US dollar, let's discuss why a rate hike leads to a rise in the dollar and a decrease in the rates of its competitors? The answer to this question lies in one of the fundamental laws of the foreign exchange market — the Interest Rate Parity Theorem. The essence of the theorem is that assets with the same credit risk will be more attractive in the currency of the state where the rate is higher. In this case, investors will sell the currency with lower rates and buy the currency with higher rates in order to receive a large premium for their investment. Figure 1: The US dollar exchange rate against a basket of foreign currencies The increase in the dollar rate primarily hit currencies with low rates, including, first of all, the euro, the yen and the British pound, and this is the flip side of the US dollar. Moreover, if the yen and the pound have limited influence, then the euro is the second most important reserve currency in the world. The economic problems associated with rising energy prices have further aggravated the situation in the eurozone economy, and the slowness of the European Central Bank has led to the fact that the difference in interest rates has become large enough for a massive outflow of capital from Europe. This has become especially relevant for energy-dependent industries, such as metallurgical companies and aluminum production. At the same time, the situation in the British pound and the Japanese yen is no better than that of the euro, and even worse in some ways. The British pound updated the historical low on September 26. The yen updated the 30-year low a little earlier. There is another circumstance that puts pressure on exchange rates, this is the decline of the US stock market, which adds an additional growth driver to the dollar. Thus, the dollar is at the peak of its power in relation to the currencies of the bloc. The Chinese yuan is also under pressure, although much less than the nearest US satellites. This week, the yuan has updated the low and is now trading at 7.14 yuan per dollar, but the level of 8 yuan per dollar, the low from 2006, is still far away. The depreciation of the yuan is rather a forced measure in response to the decline in the currency of the main competitor in the Asia-Pacific region — the Japanese yen. Further narration requires answering the question of how high the US dollar can grow, and whether it is worth selling it against other currencies now. First of all, it should be noted that the dollar's growth is not over yet, although it has achieved its initial goals. At the same time, it should be remembered that the movement never develops in a straight line, and the dollar has now turned out to be sufficiently overbought to make a correction to its rising trend from a technical point of view, which will give us the opportunity to consider buying it, if, of course, there is a desire and, most importantly, a signal from the trading system. However, in the context of what is happening, a very significant reservation should be made. Even if we assume that the US dollar has reached its high, it will take at least three months to reverse it. Now the ECB and the Bank of England have rushed after the Fed, trying to somehow stop the inflationary spiral. However, it is not so easy to do this, given the pace set by the US Fed, and it takes time. The chronology of events can be presented as follows. The Fed will raise the rate at least once more at its next meeting, which will be held on November 1 and 2, by 0.75% points. Before this event, the ECB will also raise the rate by 0.75% at the end of October, thereby keeping the difference in rates between the euro and the dollar at the current value. Of course, the ECB may surprise and raise the rate by 1% at once, but then we will know about it in advance from the comments of officials, but now such an increase looks unlikely. Based on the logic of this assumption, it is safe to say that at least until the end of October 2022, the euro's exchange rate will not change its direction and may continue to decline. Fig.2: Technical picture of the euro/US dollar exchange rate The technical picture of the EURUSD exchange rate assumes a similar dynamics and now completely coincides with the fundamental calculations (Fig.2). The euro is in a downward trend. At the same time, the exchange rate reached the first target, located at 0.96, which was determined by the width of the previous range of 0.99-1.02, 300 points. It is logical to assume that after achieving the first goal, the course will grow a bit, or, in other words, go into correction. The main postulate of technical analysis is the rule: the movement will continue until we get the opposite. This means that we need to assume that the exchange rate of the euro will decline until the condition of a trend change is met. For the current situation, the condition for a trend change is an increase above the 1.02 level, before that, any increase in the EURUSD rate should be considered as a correction to the current downward trend. Fig.3: Technical picture of the USDJPY course In my subjective opinion, the situation in the Japanese yen is even sadder than with the euro. The Bank of Japan remains the only key central bank that has abandoned the policy of raising rates. This has a rather serious impact on the yen exchange rate, which leads to the fact that the BOJ, under pressure from allies dissatisfied with the devaluation, is even forced to intervene. However, this does not help much and may lead to the fact that the Japanese currency will test the level of 150 and even 155 yen per US dollar (Fig.3). Therefore, if any feeling that you take for intuition suggests that you sell the USDJPY pair here and now, then throw this thought out of your head. It will not lead to anything good. It will be possible to do this no earlier than the pair drops below the 140 level, and even then with great caution and a minimum lot size. With the British pound, everything is somewhat more complicated. The fact is that the BoE began to raise the rate earlier than the ECB began to do it, besides, the maintenance of the national currency rate is written in its charter. Previously, if necessary, the central bank did not disdain to resort to interventions, including not only verbal ones. Therefore, I wouldn't guess the depths at the level of parity of the pound and the dollar, although such a decline looks quite likely. Summing up, it should be noted that the US dollar continues to remain in an upward trend, supported by high interest rates and a decline in stock indices. The S&P 500 index updated the local low on Tuesday, September 27. The previous level was at 3631. If the month, quarter and fiscal year are closed below the 3600 mark, the fate of the US market in the 4th quarter will be very sad. With a high degree of probability, of course. Be careful, cautious and most importantly — follow the rules of money management!   Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322832
LFG Has Not Created Any New Wallets| Do Kwon  On The Interpol Wanted List

LFG Has Not Created Any New Wallets| Do Kwon On The Interpol Wanted List

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 12:11
While bitcoin and ether are rapidly falling and returning to their annual lows to break through and collapse even lower, South Korean prosecutors are trying to freeze 3,313 bitcoins on two cryptocurrency exchanges, allegedly associated with the founder of Luna, Do Kwon. The coins were moved shortly after a South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for the Terraform Labs co-founder. It is reported that the South Korean authorities have asked several cryptocurrency exchanges to freeze 3,313 bitcoins allegedly associated with the co-founder of Terraform Labs. The coins were transferred to trading platforms shortly after a warrant for Kwon's arrest was issued in South Korea. Yesterday, a representative of the Prosecutor's Office of the Southern District of Seoul said they have evidence that 3,313 BTC belongs to Kwon. The coins were transferred to trading platforms from a wallet allegedly linked to the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), which was created on September 15. Cryptoquant, the company that handled the investigation, said that the new bitcoin addresses belong to LFG. This conclusion was made based on transaction patterns, related flows, and significant non-public information. By yesterday evening, the Luna foundation rejected the involvement of this cryptocurrency. On Twitter, the company published the bitcoin address of its wallet, adding that LFG has not created any new wallets and has not moved BTC or other tokens that it owns since May 2022. Meanwhile, the location of the founder of Luna is unknown, and he no longer gets in touch. He was believed to be in Singapore, but earlier this month, Singapore police said he was currently out of town. Back on Monday, Kwon tweeted that he was not on the run. Let me remind you that on September 14, a South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for Kwon. He is accused of fraud after the collapse of the Luna cryptocurrency. In addition, it is reported that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country plans to cancel his passport. Yesterday it became known that Interpol had put the co-founder of Terraform Labs, Do Kwon, on the wanted list. The "red notice" that has been issued allows South Korea to receive assistance from law enforcement agencies around the world in finding and arresting a person awaiting extradition, extradition, or similar judicial action. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, the failure of the trading instrument and the return to the framework of the side channel took place quite quickly. This indicates that investors have no interest in risks. The focus is now on the $19,000 resistance, the return of which is necessary to build a new upward correction in the pair. In the case of a breakthrough in this area, you can see a dash up to $19,520 and into the $20,000 area. To build a larger uptrend, you need to break above the resistances: $20,540 and $21,410. If the pressure on bitcoin increases and all the prerequisites for this, the bulls should make every effort to protect the support of $18,625, just above which trading is now underway. Its breakdown will quickly push the trading instrument back to the lower border of the $18,100 side channel and pave the way for an update of the $17,580 level. Ether has again failed to reach the significant support of $ 1,275, and now there is a risk of building a new bear market. A breakdown of $1,275 can lead to significant changes in the market. Only a fix above $1,343 will somehow calm the situation and return the balance to the ether. Consolidation above $1,343 will stabilize the market direction and push the ether to another correction in the area of $1,402 and $1,457. The further targets will be the areas: $1,504 and $1,550. If the pressure on the trading instrument remains and at the breakdown of $1,275, we can see a new movement of the trading instrument down to the support of $1,210. Its breakdown will push the ether to $ 1,150, where major players will manifest themselves in the market again.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322892
Powell Touched On The Topic Of The Digital Dollar And The Crypto Industry

Powell Touched On The Topic Of The Digital Dollar And The Crypto Industry

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 11:56
Yesterday, the next speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, took place. In his speech, he touched on the topic of cryptocurrencies and, in particular, decentralized finance (DeFi). Coincidence or not, bitcoin and ether reacted with a sharp decline to the statements, which led to the return of trading instruments to quite dangerous levels. But before we discuss the technical picture, let's deal with the statements. At a panel discussion on digital finance organized by the Bank of France, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about the planned regulation of decentralized finance. "The normalization of monetary policy worldwide is very important for the future. We must deal with structural problems in the Defi ecosystem and conflicts of interest." First, one of the most important problems that Powell drew attention to is the structure of transparency. "The good news is that, from the point of view of financial stability, the interaction between the Defi ecosystem, the traditional banking system, and the traditional financial system is not so great at the moment. The recent sharp collapse of DeFi has not significantly impacted the banking system and financial stability in general," Powell said. According to the official, it is necessary to do a lot of work with regulations, but it should be done carefully and thoughtfully. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve System warned that the uncontrolled situation in the crypto industry would not continue indefinitely. There is now a real need for more substantive regulation so that as Defi expands again and begins to cover more and more retail customers, there will be appropriate regulation. It is worth noting that Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Agustin Carstens, Director General of the Bank for International Settlements, also participated in the discussion. The head of the Fed also noted the risk of using stablecoins in a broader sense and the need to develop legislation in this direction. Powell also touched on the topic of the digital dollar, saying that it will take several more years of research before the Fed decides to issue it or not. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, the failure of the trading instrument and the return to the framework of the side channel took place quite quickly. This indicates that investors have no interest in risks. The focus is now on the $19,000 resistance, the return of which is necessary to build a new upward correction in the pair. In the case of a breakthrough in this area, you can see a dash up to $19,520 and into the $20,000 area. To build a larger upward trend, you need to break above the resistances: $20,540 and $21,410. If the pressure on bitcoin increases, and all the prerequisites for this, the bulls should make every effort to protect the support of $18,625, just above which trading is now underway. Its breakdown will quickly push the trading instrument back to the lower border of the $18,100 side channel and pave the way for an update of the $17,580 level. Ether has again failed to reach the significant support of $ 1,275, and now there is a risk of building a new bear market. A breakdown of $1,275 can lead to significant changes in the market. Only a fix above $1,343 will somehow calm the situation and return the balance to the ether. Consolidation above $1,343 will stabilize the market direction and push the ether to another correction in the area of $1,402 and $1,457. The further targets will be the areas: $1,504 and $1,550. If the pressure on the trading instrument remains and at the breakdown of $1,275, we can see a new movement of the trading instrument down to the support of $1,210. Its breakdown will push the ether to $ 1,150, where major players will manifest themselves in the market again.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322886
The Mood And Future Of The Ethereum Market|Statements By Ethereum Miners

The Mood And Future Of The Ethereum Market| Statements By Ethereum Miners

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 09:43
Crypto Industry News: We are almost two weeks after the historic moment of the Merge, i.e. the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake model. Due to the abandonment of ether extraction with the existing PoW model and the failure to take off the ETHPoW blockchain resulting from the fork, many former ETH miners complain that they have no idea what to do next. Following the merger, many ETH mining professionals began discussing their future on Twitter. Internet services have contacted several former Ethereum miners to find out what their plans are. The information obtained shows that the mood in this community is currently gloomy, as for many miners nothing is clear about the next steps. Former miner Christian Ander told the service: "Honestly, I don't know which way to go yet. Selling GPU power to other compute-intensive services isn't as profitable as mining ETH. I'm researching myself, and my colleagues are looking for new options for themselves." The former miner recalls that "GPU owners are researching and selling their devices' computing power to another cryptocurrency project, and when energy prices are very high, they shut down and sell excess power to the grid." Ander admitted that he is not mining any cryptocurrencies at the moment and is only observing the market. Another former Ethereum miner, Kevin Aguirre, said he sold his equipment to a person who is now using it to mine other coins. However, it states: "I have a little bit of regret about how the adventure with my mining machine ended, but it finally supported me and my family during the pandemic." At a time when Ethereum used the Proof-of-Work algorithm, GPUs were quite popular. After the Merge almost two weeks ago, GPU manufacturers began to record heavy losses. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair had reversed all the recent gains made after the bounce to the level of $1,399 and is currently trading around the demand zone seen between the levels of $1,288 - $1,257. After the aggressive and dynamic reversal, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990, which means the low from 22th September located at $1,220 should be broken as the down trend will continue. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294546
More And More Universities Are Including Metavers In Their Education Program

More And More Universities Are Including Metaverse In Their Education Program

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 09:37
Crypto Industry News: There is a growing number of universities and educational institutions that include metaverse in their educational programs. Now the University of Nanjing, located in East China, has joined this group. Nanjing University of Information Technology and Technology changes the name of one of its main faculties, the Faculty of Information Engineering, to the "Faculty of Metaverse Engineering". This is to integrate more metaverse courses. According to the sources, this may be the first section of an educational institution in China to contain the word "metaverse". Mr. Zhigeng, dean of this transformed faculty, said the move will contribute to the university's integration with virtual reality enterprises. Its aim is to better identify the needs of current and future metavers users and train more talents in this regard. Zhigeng also announced that students will be better qualified to work in three different areas, including smart healthcare, smart education and digital tourism. To develop the university in these segments, the faculty will establish three different working groups: the Metaverse Research Institute, the Smart Meteorological Research Institute, and the Smart Medical Research Institute. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair breakout had been capped after hitting the supply zone located between the levels of $20,221 - $20,580 Only a sustained breakout above this levels would change the outlook to more bullish, however after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of $20,374, the odds for a breakout higher are very low. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are neutral-to-negative and the momentum might be going lower. The nearest technical support is seen at $18,640 and $18,563. The swing low is seen at the level of $18,150. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,226 WR2 - $18,987 WR1 - $18,829 Weekly Pivot - $18,742 WS1 - $18,587 WS2 - $18,500 WS3 - $18,259 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294544
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 09:12
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair was trading more calmly on Tuesday, but the volatility still remained very high, almost 200 points. Late in the evening, a new powerful fall began, which may well turn out to be a new round of the collapse of the British currency. No important statistics published in the UK on Monday or Tuesday, and there were no important events or news. Thus, we believe that the market continues to be in a panic state due to recent geopolitical events. We said that the euro may well continue its decline in the near future. And if the euro can, then the pound even more so... Therefore, a lot depends on what news of a geopolitical nature will come from Russia, Ukraine, NATO countries and the European Union. Unfortunately, the forecasts are not optimistic yet. Everything is going to the fact that the geopolitical conflict will continue to grow. Not a single trading signal was formed on Tuesday. The price was only getting close to the critical line, but could not work it out. It's a pity, because a strong sell signal could be formed. However, the nature of the movements now is such that it may be better not to really enter the market for a while. Or trade on a higher TF, which we also analyze every day. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new decline, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players can only intensify in the near future. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 28. The euro still does not understand how to start growing. Geopolitics may still put pressure on the pair for a long time. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 28. Theresa May is out, Boris Johnson is out, now Liz Truss is out? How much longer will the political turmoil in Britain continue? Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 28. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H. The pound/dollar pair continues its downward trend on the hourly timeframe, which is already in fact a collapse. For some time the market was in a state of pause, but now it is already clear that the fall can resume with renewed vigor. We do not believe that the reasons for this fall lie in Great Britain or on the sidelines of the Federal Reserve. We believe that geopolitics is pushing the pound down and may continue to do so for a very long time. Any trend ends sooner or later, but it is very difficult to say when this one will end. We highlight the following important levels: 1.0357, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442. Senkou Span B (1.1475) and Kijun-sen (1.0858) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. No major events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK and the US. However, the pair does not need new economic data now to keep moving ultra-volatile. We believe that high volatility may persist today, as well as in the next few days. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322838
The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair Moved Without Panic But Now No One Is Thinking About Buying The Euro

The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair Moved Without Panic But Now No One Is Thinking About Buying The Euro

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 09:06
EUR/USD 5M The euro/dollar pair moved without panic on Tuesday. Volatility was already "medium" in strength, and there were no strong jerks and sharp reversals. We can see that the market is slowly moving away from the news of last week, but we would not advise you to relax. Now the situation in the world is such that you absolutely do not know and do not understand where the next "smart" news will come from, after which a new "storm" will begin. If we return from geopolitics to economics, the first two days of the week were remembered only by the speeches of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who, in short, assured the markets of her readiness to continue raising the key rate in order to effectively and quickly fight high inflation. This could be great news for the euro if the market didn't care about macroeconomics right now. The minds of traders and investors are busy with geopolitics, the development of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and a possible nuclear war. In this state, they can continue to sell all risky assets and currencies, to which the euro belongs. In regards to Tuesday's trading signals, the situation was as simple as possible, since not a single one was formed. It is even difficult to say whether this is good or bad, since the movements are now clearly uneasy and unstable. During the day, the pair did not approach either the critical line or the extreme level of 0.9553. There are very few levels in the current price area. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial traders, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not provide any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 28. The euro still does not understand how to start growing. Geopolitics may still put pressure on the pair for a long time. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 28. Theresa May is out, Boris Johnson is out, now Liz Truss is out? How much longer will the political turmoil in Britain continue? Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 28. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The bears' prospects remain just fine on the hourly timeframe, given that now no one is even thinking about buying the euro. Therefore, with or without new data, with or without news, with or without reports, the euro may continue to fall. There may be some easing of tension after September 30, but there could also be a reverse effect. We highlight the following levels for trading on Wednesday - 0.9553, 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0002) and Kijun-sen (0.9747). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Lagarde will deliver another speech in the European Union, which is unlikely to affect anything, and there will be nothing interesting at all in America. However, the market is now waiting for news of a completely different kind, not economic. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322836
Crypto Trading Firms Are Looking To Reduce Their Headcounts

Michael Saylor Statements That Cryptocurrency Is Better Than Physical Property

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:59
On the 4-hour TF, it is even better to see that recently, bitcoin has been moving exclusively sideways, with minimal volatility and exactly along the $18,500 level. Another rebound from this level provoked an upward pullback, but we believe this is an oversold before a new test of the $ 18,500 level, which will be successful this time. Recall that there is also a descending channel on the 4-hour TF, from which the price has not yet tried to exit. Consequently, we have a downward trend in both senior TF. A rebound from the channel's upper border can provoke a new round of downward movement. In the last article, we discussed that "whales" are in no hurry to make new bitcoin purchases, and "hamsters" are waiting for a new trend to join. However, at least one unshakable "whale" is always on the market. We are talking about the Microstrategy company, which, it seems, will soon start selling off its assets and parts of the business to invest in bitcoin. This company may become commensurate with Apple or Tesla, thanks to its investments in cryptocurrency. However, so far, it only makes many people laugh. If we take the average price of bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy investments are now unprofitable. Whether there will be a new "bullish" trend is still "written with a pitchfork on the water." The world is now in such a state that it is pointless to think of anything for the week ahead. However, Michael Saylor, who is no longer CEO, announced the purchase of another 300 bitcoin coins for $ 6 million. As you can see, this action was not so large that other market participants joined the purchases. The company already has 130,000 bitcoin coins worth $ 4 billion, and I would like to ask why they still need the main software development activity. If bitcoin grows to $ 100,000 per coin, it will bring the company at least $ 16 billion in profit. Also, Michael Saylor continues to make rather strange statements that cryptocurrency is better than physical property. Many of those coins being purchased now will be owned by their children and grandchildren. However, most investors buy bitcoin to extract the fastest possible profit. In any case, even if Bitcoin goes into growth again, technical buy signals are needed. There are none now. In the 4-hour timeframe, the "bitcoin" quotes completed an upward correction. We believe the decline will continue in the medium term, but we must wait for the price to consolidate below the $17,582-$18,500 area. If this happens, the first target for the fall will be the level of $ 12,426. The rebound from the level of $18,500 (or $17,582) can be used for small purchases, but be careful – we still have a strong downward trend.   Relevance up to 16:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322820
A Vote Of No Confidence In The New UK Prime Minister And The Pound's (GBP) Situation

A Vote Of No Confidence In The New UK Prime Minister And The Pound's (GBP) Situation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:50
The GBP/USD currency pair also traded more calmly on Tuesday than on Monday. Some recovery has begun, but it is still very difficult to call this upward movement even a "correction." Rather, it is not even a rollback but a rebound. The market faced a serious level of support several hundred points from the price parity, so stop orders and take profit worked, which led to a sharp departure of quotes. Recall that the collapse occurred after the new Finance Minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented a plan for economic recovery in Parliament, which implied a reduction in several tax rates and the abolition of some tax increases. After that, the yield of UK Treasury bonds shot up, which means a drop in demand for this type of security. And along with this, massive sales of the pound followed, which were observed before the statements of Kwarteng. Thus, the pound fell before the presentation of the recovery plan, the Bank of England meeting, and the Fed meeting. What has changed, other than that the fall has just accelerated? Accordingly, we can conclude that there are plenty of reasons for the market to get rid of the pound as soon as possible, not just one or two. After all, do not forget about geopolitics, which puts pressure on risky currencies. Do not forget about the British recession, which can last two years, if not more. Do not forget about Brexit, which continues to harm the GDP. It is even difficult for us now to guess where the pound may fall. On the one hand, a strong rebound of quotations from the level of 1.0358, now the new absolute minimum of the pair, may mean a transition to forming a new upward trend. But it will take a week or two to determine whether this is true. After all, given the geopolitical or fundamental background, the market may decide to resume sales! A couple of weeks ago, we jokingly said that the pound would also go below parity at this rate. As you can see, now it's not a joke. The pound has set a record. Meanwhile, Britain continues to show that it cannot live without scandals and controversial political decisions and cannot help but create problems for itself. Liz Truss took office as Prime Minister on September 6. On September 27, it became known that some conservatives had begun sending letters to a special committee that could begin the procedure for issuing a vote of no confidence. That is, 21 days after the Conservatives chose Liz Truss as their leader, they have already begun voting to remove her from office. This is a political pun. Naturally, it all started with that notorious recovery plan, which implies tax cuts. It is reported that some parliamentarians seriously believe this plan could destroy the British economy, which is already on the verge of recession. Although it is not clear to us personally, what exactly is the problem with Liz Truss, who, even at the first stages of voting, clearly spoke about her desire to lower taxes? And for the UK, such a measure is by no means an apocalypse, and taxes have been reduced before, in difficult times for the country and its citizens. However, there is a feeling that the tax cuts affect the interests of those conservatives who did not want to see Truss at the helm of the country but voted for Rishi Sunak, who was just against lowering tax rates. There is no unity within the Conservative Party now, not to mention the entire British government. If this is true, opponents will not succeed since the number of conservatives who voted for her is greater than those who voted for Sunak. And if it comes out, Liz Truss will set a record for short-term tenure as prime minister. This event is remarkable, and we will have something to watch for in the near future while the pound sterling is going to the bottom. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 299 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "very high." On Wednesday, September 28, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.0477 and 1.1077. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals the resumption of the downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.0498 S2 – 1.0254 S3 – 1.0010 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.0742 R2 – 1.0986 R3 – 1.1230 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair is still being adjusted in the 4-hour timeframe. Therefore, at the moment, new sell orders with targets of 1.0498 and 1.0477 should be considered if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Buy orders should be opened when fixed above the moving average with targets of 1.1230 and 1.1475. Explanations of the illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction to trade now. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Based on current volatility indicators, volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322842
EUR/USD: What Stands Behind THAT HIGH Eurozone Inflation?

The Euro-Dollar Pair (EUR/USD) Pair Maintains A Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:46
The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Tuesday than on Monday. Volatility has fallen, so we can talk about the passage of the state of shock that was present on the market on Monday. In principle, the technical picture for the euro currency has not changed at all and has not changed for a very long time. On the 4-hour TF, the pair still shows some meager corrections from time to time, but if we switch to the 24-hour TF, we see a non-stop downward movement. It is very difficult to predict how long this movement will continue since it will largely depend on the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, development, and various related factors. So far, the market, we can say, is still in a state of panic after Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization in Russia. A huge number of experts of various stripes immediately began to predict what all this would be. Not even for the Russian economy or the development of the conflict in Ukraine itself. What will this mean for the global economy? First, many have started talking about nuclear war again. It is not surprising since world leaders have begun to pamper us directly with regular statements that they are ready to press the "red button" if necessary. How should the markets feel if everything can end at any moment? Second, mobilization means that in the near future, there will be no peace talks, no freezing of the conflict, nor its transition into a sluggish confrontation, which the markets would certainly like. Third, the issue of referendums and the speech of the President of the Russian Federation on September 30, at which, most likely, the phrase about the annexation of all occupied territories to Russia will be heard. Kyiv and the West have already stated that Moscow can annex whatever it deems necessary. Still, from the point of view of international law, these lands remain Ukrainian, which means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have every right to go on the offensive. At the same time, Moscow says that any attack on Russian lands gives grounds to use nuclear weapons to protect them. Thus, already in October, the geopolitical situation may seriously escalate. Of course, all this news is shocking for risky currencies, and we believe that the euro and the pound can safely continue their decline. Christine Lagarde's speech is nothing new. On Monday and Tuesday, two consecutive performances by Christine Lagarde took place at once. We have already said earlier that it simply does not make sense to expect any new statements from the head of the ECB now. At the September meeting, Lagarde made it clear that the regulator would continue to raise the rate at a high rate until the end of the year. It is from this phrase that we should start. This week, she said that the rate would rise in any case, even despite the decline in economic and business activity. Of course, such measures will be taken to suppress high inflation as quickly as possible. Nothing new. Lagarde also noted that the support for European households and businesses may have been too voluminous (probably referring to the QE program during the pandemic), so the return of inflation to 2% may take longer than expected. Thus, we can be sure that the rate will continue to rise, which would undoubtedly support the European currency if we did not clearly understand what is happening worldwide and in the markets. The ECB rate will remain below the Fed rate for a long time. This is the first factor in the further fall of the euro against the dollar. The geopolitical conflict, new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which work both ways, high oil and gas prices, and potential refusals of the European Union to purchase oil and gas in Russia will continue to put pressure on the euro, not on the dollar. The states are far away, at least self-sufficient in energy, and the European conflict does not threaten them in any way. Of course, in the event of a nuclear war, everyone will get it, but in this case, we will no longer sit and analyze the foreign exchange market. And while we are still doing this, we would say that the probability of the pair continuing to fall is very high. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last five trading days as of September 28 is 138 points and is characterized as "high." Thus, on Wednesday, we expect the pair to move between 0.9488 and 0.9764 levels. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals a round of upward correction. Nearest support levels: S1 – 0.9521 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 0.9644 R2 – 0.9766 R3 – 0.9888 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend. Thus, it would be best if you stayed in short positions with targets of 0.9521 and 0.9488 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Purchases will become relevant no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average with a target of 0.9888. Explanations of the illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction to trade now. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Based on current volatility indicators, volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322840
Gold's Price Remains Inside The Medium-Term Bearish Channel

Gold Made A Brief Recovery But It Failed And Changed Course

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:39
Since the beginning of August, gold (XAU/USD) has been trading inside a downtrend channel. It is likely to find support around 0/8 Murray (1,625). Gold reached the low of April 05, 2020, at 1,621.01. It is currently trading near these levels and is showing levels of consolidation. Some members of the FED are supporting further increases in interest rates, even at the risk of slowing economic growth. On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that he believed that the US central bank could reduce inflation without causing a deep recession and high unemployment. Yesterday, in the American session, gold made a brief recovery and reached 1,642.33. As it failed to consolidate gains, it changed course and now is facing a decision to break the critical support of 1,625. In the event of a drop below 1,624, it will head towards the next level of 1,610 and could even drop towards the psychological level of 1,600. Conversely, a sharp break above the 21 SMA could accelerate the upside momentum and the price could reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1,656-1,662. According to the 4-hour chart, the outlook remains negative for gold. In case of extending the bounce, the resistances could be located at 1,641, followed by 1,656. A drop below 1,625 in the short term would expose the area of recent lows and the next support at 1,600. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy XAU/USD only if it trades above 0/8 Murray (1,625) or if there is a technical bounce off the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1,600. With targets at 1,625,1,645 and 1,656.   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294520
On the New York Stock Exchange, The Number Of Securities That Fell In Price Was Bigger Than This Positive One

On the New York Stock Exchange, The Number Of Securities That Fell In Price Was Bigger Than This Positive One

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:25
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.43% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.21%, and the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.25%. The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was Salesforce Inc, which gained 2.57 points or 1.76% to close at 148.89. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 0.40 points (0.92%), ending trading at 43.79. Home Depot Inc rose 0.79% or 2.11 points to close at 268.69. The losers were shares of McDonald's Corporation, which lost 7.06 points or 2.90% to end the session at 236.70. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.75% or 3.73 points to close at 131.98 while Coca-Cola Co was down 2.57% or 1.49 points to close at mark 56.38. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.10% to hit 95.87, Mosaic Company, which gained 4.15% to close at 48.44, and also shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, which rose 3.88% to end the session at 45.75. The biggest losers were Digital Realty Trust Inc, which shed 3.98% to close at 97.73. Shares of Organon & Co shed 3.54% to end the session at 24.26. Quotes of Global Payments Inc decreased in price by 3.39% to 108.02. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 106.25% to hit 7.26, Scienjoy Holding Corp, which gained 47.90% to close at 2.47, and also shares of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 40.18% to close the session at 1.25. The drop leaders were NLS Pharmaceutics AG, which shed 25.07% to close at 0.72. Shares of Midatech Pharma PLC ADR lost 20.77% and ended the session at 2.06. Quotes of Fednat Holding Co decreased in price by 18.22% to 0.18. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1634) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1527), while quotes of 136 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2048 companies rose in price, 1751 fell, and 295 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 1.05% to 32.60, hitting a new 3-month high. Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.18%, or 2.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 2.29%, or 1.76, to $78.47 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.35%, or 1.95, to $84.81 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.14% to 0.96, while USD/JPY rose 0.06% to hit 144.84. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.09% to 114.12.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294518
Reverse The U.S. Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Pair In A Downward Direction

The Intervention Of The Bank Of Japan May Orove Futile (USD/JPY)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:09
The yen's situation is unfolding in such a way that the Bank of Japan's intervention on September 22 to protect the level of 145.00 may turn out to be in vain. The price has already approached the resistance of 145.05, consolidating above which opens the 147.30 target – an embedded line of the global price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is still kept in the positive area. Obviously, the BOJ is not able to withstand the global strengthening of the dollar, although the yen has been staying at current levels for three weeks now. So, if there is no repeated intervention of the central bank close in volume to the last action (which is more likely), the pair will grow to 147.30. Support in the current situation is the embedded line of the price channel and the MACD indicator line approaching near the 141.28 mark. On the four-hour chart, the price is consolidating under the linear resistance of 145.05. Consolidation above the level will be the first sign of the price's determination to go to 147.30. The Marlin Oscillator is stable in the positive area, it managed to consolidate, probably for a breakthrough upwards.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322844
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The Price Of The Pound To US Dollar Pair (GBP/USD) Is In A Bearish Channel Now

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:04
Overview : The British pound has weakened against the US dollar since the beginning of this week. That's the British pound (GBP) has fallen over 2.5% against the US dollar (USD) since the start of the week, which is significant, especially since these are the two major currencies of the world. The drop has also concentrated in this week. The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1589. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1589 (this level of 1.1589 coincides with the ratio of 61.8%) to the bottom around 1.1349. The GBP/USD pair is part of a very strong bearish trend. Traders may consider trading only short positions (for sale) as long as the price remains well below 1.1497. The next support located at 1.1349 is the next bearish objective to target. A bearish break of this support would revive the bearish momentum. The bearish movement could then continue towards the next support located at 1.1349. Below this support, sellers could then target 1.1349. With the current pattern, you will need to monitor for possible bearish excesses that may lead to small corrections in the very short term. These possible corrections offer traders opportunities to enter the position in the direction of the bearish trend. Trying to profit from the purchase of these possible corrections may seem risky. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1497 followed by 1.1543, while daily support 1 is found at 1.1349. Also, the level of 1.1497 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Support becomes a resistance at the level of 1.1497. The GBP/USD pair fell with UK inflation elevated and still rising, the cost of living crisis taking hold, growth slowing and ongoing Brexit woes, the outlook for the pound is deteriorating. Meanwhile, the USD is supported by safe-haven flows and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.1380 towards the first support level at 1.1349 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.1349, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1349. The trend is still bearish as long as the price of 1.1497 is not broken. On the day, this instrument gained +0.94% with the lowest point at 1.1349 and the highest point at 1.1400. The deviation from the price is +0.95% for the low point and -0.05% for the high point. Thereupon, it would be wise to sell below the price of at 1.1497 with the primary target at 1.1349. Then, the GBP/USD pair will continue towards the second target at 1.1300. The market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. However, the price spot of 1.1497 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend will probably be rebounded again from the second support as long as the level of 1.1497 is not breached. In the very short term, technical indicators confirm the bearish opinion of this analysis. It is appropriate to continue watching any excessive bearish movements or scanner detections which might lead to a small bullish correction. Forecast : Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1497 and 1.1300. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.1497 and 1.1400; because the price is in a bearish channel now. The RSI starts signaling a downward trend. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. Thus, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1497 or 1.1400 with the first target at 1.1349 and further to 1.1300 in order to test the daily support. If the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the daily support at 1.1300, the market will decline further to 1.1250 to approach support 3 in coming hours or days. On the other hand, the price spot of 1.1497 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1497 is not breached.   Relevance up to 01:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294504
The EUR/USD Pair: There Is Nothing New In This Market, It Is Not Bullish Yet

The EUR/USD Pair: There Is Nothing New In This Market, It Is Not Bullish Yet

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.09.2022 08:00
Overview : Pivot : 0.9740. The US dollar's strong gains against the Euro have continued today ahead of the sturdy news. The common currency reached a high of more than three days earlier this morning. This technical analysis of EUR/USD looks at the one-hour chart. The highest price that EUR/USD reached for that period was 0.9961 (last bullish wave - top). The lowest price that the EUR/USD pair reached during that period was 0.9845 (right now). The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.9800 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 0.9800. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 0.9750, because in general, we remain bearish on Sept. 21st, 2022. Yesterday, the market moved from its top at 0.9961 and continued to drop towards the top of 0.9814. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current fall will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9961 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.9961 (the level of 0.9961 coincides with tha ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). The EUR/USD pair settled below 0.9961 and is testing the support level at 0.9800. RSI and Moving averages continue to give a very strong sell signal with all of the 50 and 100 EMAs successively above slower lines and below the price. The 50 EMA has extended further below the 100 this week. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength below the moving average (100) and (50). An alternative scenario is a final consolidation below MA 100 H1, followed by growth arund the area of 0.9905. The one-hour chart favors a downward extension, as the pair broke below its 50 and 100 EMAs, both gaining downward traction. Support from MAs comes initially from the value zone between the 50 and 100 EMAs. Industriously, Euro Is Losing ground against U.S. Dollar around +185 pips. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.9961 with the first target at 0.9814 so as to test the double bottom. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 0.9814, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 0.9750 in order to test the weekly support 2. According to the previous events the price is expected to remain between 0.9905 and 0.9750 levels. Sell-deals are recommended below the price of 0.9905 with the first target seen at 0.9814. The movement is likely to resume to the point 0.9750. The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 0.9750 with 0.9725 and 0.9700 seen as new targets in coing hours. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1 USD.   Relevance up to 01:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294502
Known Indices - S&P 500, Nasdaq And Dow Jones Fluctuated On Thursday's Morning. What Can We Expect From SPX?

US Dollar Index (DXY) - Technical Analysis - 27/09/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 16:58
  As of writing, the dollar index (CFD #USDX) is trading near 113.55, down from yesterday's new local high near 114.41. The dollar's upward trend continues, pushing the DXY to new highs on its way to over 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The break of yesterday's local high at 114.41 will be a confirmation signal of our assumption.     Alternatively, the very first signal for short-term selling will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 113.12 (200 EMA on the 15-minute CFD #USDX chart). The target is the important short-term support level 111.42 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart). Its breakdown, in turn, may provoke a deeper correction to the support levels of 109.40 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 108.75 (50 EMA and the lower line of the rising channel on the daily chart). However, once again we note that this is an alternative and theoretically possible scenario.     Strong bullish momentum prevails based on fundamental factors, favoring long positions. Support levels: 113.12, 111.42, 110.76, 109.40, 108.75, 105.00, 103.35 Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.41, 115.00 Trading Tips Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 114.30. Take-Profit 111.42, 110.76, 109.40, 108.75, 105.00, 103.35 Buy Stop 114.30. Stop-Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.41, 115.00, 116.00, 120.00 Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322778
Has US Dollar Index (DXY) Potential To Reach 120.00?

Has US Dollar Index (DXY) Potential To Reach 120.00?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 16:04
After an impressive offensive in the previous few days, the dollar is declining today. Dollar buyers are partially taking profits in long positions on it, and major US stock indices are correcting, trying to push off from key long-term support levels, thereby attempting to return to the multi-year bull market zone.     In particular, the broad market index S&P 500 (reflected as CFD #SPX in the trading terminal) at the time of publication of this article is trading near the 3,690.00 mark, through which the 200-period moving average passes on the weekly chart of the index. A breakdown of this support level and a further decline will significantly increase the risks of breaking the long-term bullish trend of the S&P 500 and, perhaps, of the entire US stock market. Whatever one may say, the United States is currently experiencing the highest inflation in 30 years. The US GDP has been declining for two quarters in a row, hinting at a recession, the Fed is pursuing a cycle of super-tight monetary policy, and there is a high geopolitical tension in the world. In such a situation, as they say, there is no time for profit and risky transactions; to stay at least with your own or not incur more significant losses. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) is falling today after hitting a new local high since April 2002 at 114.41 on Monday. As of writing, DXY futures (reflected as CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal) are trading near 113.55. The dollar's upside momentum continues, pushing the DXY to new highs on its way to over 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The breakdown of yesterday's local high at 114.41 will be a confirmation signal for our assumption.     At the moment, market participants have somewhat suspended their activity in the market in anticipation of the speeches (at 11:30 GMT) by the heads of the Fed and the ECB. A little later (at 12:30 GMT), the US Census Bureau's most important report will be published with data on orders for durable goods and capital goods (excluding defense and aviation), which imply large investments in their production. A slowdown in the production of such products and a relative decline in indicators are expected, which may provoke a weakening of the dollar. Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast will usually have a negative impact on the dollar quotes, while data better than the forecast will have a positive impact on the dollar. We also note that the level of influence on the markets of this publication is high. Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322774
A Technical Look At The Bitcoin Situation, Bitcoin Jumped Sharply

A Technical Look At The Bitcoin Situation, Bitcoin Jumped Sharply

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 13:42
Technical outlook: Bitcoin jumped sharply towards the $20,200-300 area intraday on Tuesday, after testing the $18,700 lows over the weekend. The crypto has appreciated by around 8% in the last two trading sessions in line with our forecast. It is seen to be trading close to $20,225 at this point in writing and has got room left towards $21,000 at least in the near term. Bitcoin is facing immediate price resistance at around $22,800 and a break higher will open the door to re-test $25,000 and target up to $29,500 in the next several trading sessions. Also, turn attention to the immediate resistance trend line connecting $25,000 and $22,800 highs on the chart. A push through will further confirm that the bulls are back in control. Bitcoin will be facing some resistance at around $20,900 in the near term, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of recent drop between $20,800 and $18,200. A break through $20,900 will be another confirmation that the bulls are poised to push through near-term resistance and target towards the $29,500 mark. Trading idea: Potential rally towards $29,000 against $18,000 Good luck!   Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294417
Will The Dollar's (USD) Situation Change And Start Falling?

Will The Dollar's (USD) Situation Change And Start Falling?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 13:34
Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 114.10 during the New York session on Monday before finding resistance again. The index slippped lower and is seen to be trading close to the 113.40 mark at this point in writing. Prices oscillated within the range of 113.00-114.00 in the last 24 hours, thus raising probabilities for a drop towards 110.00. The hourly chart presented here also projects a potential drag towards the 110.00-20 mark, the initial support level. Immediate resistance or a top is seen at 114.35 and prices should stay lower to keep the bearish structure intact. A break below 112.90 from here will accelerate a further decline towards 111.90 in the near term. Going further, a real drop below the 110.17 initial support will confirm that bears are back in control and a deeper correction could be on its way. Only a consistent break above the 114.35 mark from here will bring back bulls into control and nullify the bearish scenario. Watching for prices to break below 112.90 for acceleration lower towards 110.20. Trading plan: Preparing for a potential drop towards 110.20 against 114.50 Good luck!     Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294414
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

This Morning The Pount To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair Recovered

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 13:21
The main event in the foreign exchange market on Monday was another steep peak of the sterling. The pound's approach to parity has caused a wave of speculation about an unscheduled rate hike by the Bank of England. Yesterday, the British currency continued its loud fall, which began last week. Paired with the dollar, sterling fell by 1.6% and tested a record low of 1.0327. Thus, since last Thursday, the pound has fallen by 5% against its American counterpart, and since the beginning of the year, the GBP/USD pair has already fallen by 21%. The reason for the current weakening of sterling is Britain's economic gambit to reduce taxes, initiated by the country's new prime Minister Liz Truss. Recall that on Friday, British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled a mini-budget aimed at stimulating the economy by cutting taxes by 45 billion pounds. The financial plan had the effect of an exploding bomb. Markets are concerned that the largest tax cut program since 1972 will further spur inflation in the country. That is why the British currency did not receive any benefit from the next rate hike that occurred last week. Like most major central banks, the BoE continues to actively fight high price growth by raising interest rates. At its September meeting, the central bank increased the indicator by 50 bps, to the highest level since 2008 at 2.25%. But now that inflation expectations have jumped again, this increase is clearly not enough to curb record price growth. On the wave of pessimism, the pound set a new anti-record on Monday. However, active speculation about an unscheduled rate hike by the BoE brought it back to life a bit. This morning, the GBP/USD pair recovered to 1.0770, which was facilitated by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's comment from the day before. Last night, the official said that the central bank is closely monitoring what is happening in the financial markets. If necessary, the MPC can change interest rates without hesitation. – As much as it is necessary for a steady return of inflation to the target of 2% in the medium term, – he stressed. In addition, the pound received support amid an incredible surge in the yield of 2-year and 5-year British government bonds. The indicator increased by 100 bps for two trading days. This suggests that in the light of recent events, the market has revised its forecasts for the future monetary policy of the BoE. There was an opinion that the British central bank could urgently raise rates without waiting for its next meeting, which is scheduled for November 3. – The Bank of England will have no choice but to raise interest rates if Truss and Kwarteng do not retreat, – said economist Mohamed El-Erian. – Moreover, it will be necessary to increase the indicator by a full percentage point in order to try to stabilize the situation. Today's speech by Huw Pill, Chief Economist of the BoE can shed light on the future plans of British politicians. If his comment turns out to be more hawkish, it will help the GBP/USD pair to move further away from the parity line. Otherwise, the asset may tickle the nerves of pound bulls again. – Without timely political action this week, sterling risks quickly falling below parity, – analyst Lee Hardman predicts. Also, do not forget that the GBP/USD pair is under strong pressure from any news indicating the Federal Reserve's determination regarding interest rates. One of the powerful triggers is expected just today. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Tuesday. If he again hints at a more aggressive policy of the US central bank, this will give the dollar a new growth impulse, which means that the pound will have to retreat. But be that as it may, most analysts are inclined to believe that the British currency will remain in the zone of increased volatility this week. Now we can expect strong jumps both in one direction and in the other.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322746
Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 13:09
Oil is an indicator of the health of the global economy. And if it is shaken, prices will surely fall. In this regard, the peak of Brent to the area of 9-month lows should not surprise anyone. Aggressive monetary restriction is massive, which increases the risks of a global recession. In such conditions, the demand for black gold is declining, which pushes futures quotes down. In 2022, for every central bank that cuts rates, there are 25 that raise them. +75 bps became the new norm instead of the traditional +25 bps. Regulators around the world have adopted the Fed's mantra of sacrificing their own economy to break the back of inflation. As a result, borrowing costs are mushrooming, consumer demand and GDP are slowing, and a global recession is getting closer every day. The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global economic growth from 4.5% to 3% in 2022 and from 3.2% to 2.2% in 2023. It believes that if gas prices in Europe jump by another 50%, the eurozone will face a prolonged recession next year, and its GDP will shrink by 1.3%. The specter of a looming recession is not the only driver behind Brent and WTI. An aggressive hike in the federal funds rate and a collapse in US stocks pushed the trade-weighted dollar to an all-time high. Since oil is quoted in US currency, the increase in the USD index is a bearish driver for the main grades of black gold. Dynamics of oil and US dollar The picture really looks extremely pessimistic for the Brent bulls, but they are trying to find a reason to rejoice in the sea of negativity. The market is talking about the entry into force of the embargo on Russian oil from December, the fact that OPEC's silence about the collapse in oil prices is reminiscent of the calm before the storm, and the recovery of Chinese demand. Alas, for each trump card of buyers, sellers have their own arguments. According to information from Indian oil companies, discounts on Urals oil from Russia have significantly decreased from $36 per barrel at the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine to "teenage" $12–14. This suggests that Moscow has managed to find new buyers, and problems with global supply will in fact turn out to be less than originally thought. According to Trafigura, the world's largest oil trader, despite the short-term weakness, the medium- and long-term prospects for black gold can become "bullish" at any moment. China's victory over COVID-19 is fraught with a surge in demand, and the lack of investment in production suggests that this demand will be difficult to meet. Technically, on the weekly chart of Brent, there are Splash and Reversal patterns with acceleration and Gartley. The breakthrough of the trend line of the Introductory stage by quotes is a wake-up call for the bulls. At the same time, when the levels of $81.5 and $74.0 per barrel are reached, the risks of a reversal will increase. In my opinion, oil should be bought on the rebound from these levels or on the breakout of the resistance at $87.6.   Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322776
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Look At The Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) And The Pound-US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pairs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 13:00
The macroeconomic calendar was empty; no important statistics were published. Investors and speculators worked out the information flow of the past week. The UK Treasury yesterday commented on everything that is happening in the country's economy, the main theses: - The medium-term financial plan will be presented on November 23. - The budget plan will set out additional details, including ensuring that the share of UK debt to GDP falls in the medium term. At the same time, the Bank of England made its comments: - We closely monitor the market for significant revaluation of financial assets; - We will not hesitate to raise the interest rate to bring inflation back to the target level of 2.0%. According to media reports, traders are waiting for an unscheduled rate hike by the Bank of England amid the collapse of the national currency. Perhaps this was the reason for such a significant pullback. There is no confirmation of rumors regarding an unscheduled rate hike. If the regulator does not take any drastic action, the pound will continue to decline. Analysis of trading charts from September 26 The EUR/USD currency pair opened a new trading week with an update of the low of the downward trend. As a result, the quote reached the levels of June 2002, at 0.9553, relative to which the stage of technical pullback occurred. The GBP/USD currency pair has set several records at once. The absolute low was updated, the quote overcame the level of 1985, eventually reaching the value of 1.0345. The scale of the pound's collapse from last Friday to the beginning of Monday's trading amounted to almost 1,000 points, while the pullback caused by the fatal overheating of short positions on the pound was about 550 points. Economic calendar for September 27 Today, data on orders for durable goods in the United States will be published, which may decrease by 0.9%. This is a fairly strong reduction, which foreshadows a noticeable decline in consumer activity, which is the locomotive of the American economy. As a result, these negative data, if confirmed, can put pressure on dollar positions. Also, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are scheduled to give a speech. It is worth listening to what they will say, although everything has already been said before. Time targeting: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speech – 11:30 UTC ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech – 11:30 UTC U.S. Durable Goods Orders (August) – 12:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 27 At the moment, there is a characteristic stagnation, where the pullback stage has slowed down its formation despite the continuing technical signal about the oversold euro. In order for the pullback to be prolonged and become the starting point for a full-size correction, the quote first needs to stay above the value of 0.9700 for at least a four-hour period. At the same time, the downward scenario will become relevant again as soon as the current low is updated. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 27 In this situation, there is still a speculative rush on the market, which allows new price jumps. In order to prolong the current pullback, the quote needs to stay above the high of the previous day at 1.0928. At the same time, the scenario of further decline will be considered by traders if the price holds below 1.0630. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322762
The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

The Euro To US Dollar Pair Is Trading At Its Lowest Levels In 20 Years

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 12:54
On Monday, EUR/USD dropped to the retracement level of 423.6% located at 0.9585 on the H1 chart and then rebounded from it twice. So, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and started to rise slowly towards 0.9782. Yesterday, the information background was mixed. On the one hand, there is news about parliamentary elections in Italy and the new UK Prime Minister. Some Conservative MPs are preparing to send letters of no confidence in Liz Truss. Yet, I doubt that such news could have hit the pound or the euro so hard. The speech by Christine Lagarde was far more important. She assured markets that the ECB would continue to raise the rate in order to slow demand even despite a decline in business activity and a high threat of a recession. This is a positive factor for the European currency as the EU regulator will pursue monetary tightening and may soon catch up with the US Fed. However, there was no significant rise, and the euro/dollar pair is trading at its lowest levels in 20 years. Therefore, bears are still in control of the market despite any news background. The recent COT report showed a rapid surge in buy contracts although this fact didn't support the euro in any way. This indicates that the overall market sentiment remains bearish and is not changing. Consolidation below the retracement level of 423.6% may push the price lower to 0.9000. The existing downward channel also confirms the bearish sentiment. This week, Christine Lagarde will give another speech as well as some FOMC members. Their rhetoric is unlikely to change, so traders won't have to choose a new strategy and adjust it to new approaches of the ECB or the Fed. On the 4-hour chart, the pair dropped to the retracement level of 161.8% located at 0.9581. A rebound from this level will activate the upside momentum of the euro and may send the price towards the upper line of the downward channel. Yet, I doubt that this upward movement will be strong as traders are convinced to sell the euro. A strong hold below 0.9581 will make a further decline more likely. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: Last week, traders closed 1,214 long contracts and 46,500 short contracts. This indicates that large market players became less bearish on the pair. The overall amount of opened long contracts stands at 206,000 while the amount of short contracts is 173,000. So, the market sentiment has become more bullish recently. Yet, the euro has failed to develop a sustainable uptrend. In recent weeks, there were some chances for the euro to recover. However, traders are hesitant to buy it and prefer the US dollar instead. The European currency has failed to show a proper advance over the past months. Therefore, I would advise you to focus on the main descending channels on the H1 and H4 charts. The pair may start to rise only when the price closes above these channels. Economic calendar for US and EU: EU - ECB President Lagarde speaks (11-30 UTC). US - Core Durable Goods Orders (12-30 UTC). On September 27, both economic calendars for the EU and US have one important event each. Today's speech by Christine Lagarde will most likely be similar to what she said yesterday. The impact of the information background on the market may be weak on Tuesday. EUR/USD forecast and trading tips: I would recommend selling the pair after its rebound from the level of 1.0173 (1.0196) on H4 with the targets found at 0.9900, 0.9782, and 0.9581. All these targets have already been tested. New short positions can be opened when the price closes below 0.9585. It is better to buy the pair when the quotes settle firmly above the level of 1.0173 on H4 with the target at 1.0638.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322766
The Entire Cryptocurrency Market Are At Risk Of Going On A Local Bull Run

The Entire Cryptocurrency Market Are At Risk Of Going On A Local Bull Run

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 12:52
The Merge did not have a significant impact on Ethereum quotes, as a full-fledged transition to PoS is just beginning. A significant part of the DeFi sector is in transition and the main altcoin is waiting for several updates before the migration is fully completed. The maximum value from switching Ethereum to PoS will become clear during the next bullish rally. Until then, the altcoin continues to fluctuate in the $1,200–$1,800 range. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency managed to slightly improve the situation and rise in price by 7%. Ethereum Gives Bullish Signals As of writing, Ether is trading at $1,380 and continues to be bullish. ETH ended the last trading day with a bullish momentum and a small green candle. Most of the buying volumes in the Ethereum network were already formed on September 27. The cryptocurrency has come close to the $1,400 level, which is a key resistance zone. The asset has every chance to gain a foothold above this level at the end of the current trading day. However, it will be possible to talk about a local price reversal only if it successfully consolidates above $1,450. ETH/USD Technical analysis On the daily chart, ETH/USD is showing serious bullish signals. The RSI index has acquired an upward direction, indicating the formation of buying volumes. The MACD indicator is one step away from forming a bullish crossover and resuming upward movement. A strong bullish signal is shown by the stochastic oscillator. The metric has been unable to overcome the oversold zone since September 14 but has subsequently realized a bullish momentum. The indicator has reached the level of 26 and keeps its upward direction. From a technical point of view, the cryptocurrency is approaching the birth of a local upward trend. If it successfully consolidates above $1,450 at the end of the current trading day, the asset has every chance to develop success in the direction of $1,600–$1,800. Reasons for the likely upward trend The main reason for the likely upward trend of the cryptocurrency may be the correction of the US dollar index. The indicator reached a peak value of 114.5 for more than 20 years, after which it began to correct. Given that the DXY technical metrics are in a state of excessive overbought, a deeper correction should be expected. There is also a gradual increase in trading activity. The number of unique addresses and transaction volumes are growing, which may indicate preparations for a local bullish movement. However, it is most likely that a clear jump in indicators will occur if the price successfully consolidates above $1,450. The positive news was the publication of Stanford researchers with the concept of new standards for Ethereum tokens. The study involves the creation of standards for conducting reversible transactions. Management will be carried out by a decentralized system using a voting system. Conclusions Ethereum, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are at risk of going on a local bull run due to the DXY correction. The gradual influx of funds into crypto funds hints at an improvement in the investment situation in the market. However, to confirm bullish intentions, Ethereum needs to gain a foothold above $1,450 at the end of the current trading day.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322758
Intervention In The Yen (JPY) Still Remains A Far Cry| The Pound (GBP) Is The Weakest Against The Dollar (USD)

Intervention In The Yen (JPY) Still Remains A Far Cry| The Pound (GBP) Is The Weakest Against The Dollar (USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 11:04
Summary:  Havoc has spread to the markets, not just with the Fed staying the hawkish course, but with the collapse in confidence in the UK economy after a fiscal policy and lack of monetary policy response adding into the mix with a massive bond selloff. Meanwhile, the surge in the US dollar continued taking its toll on several currencies, and the effect of Japan’s intervention from last week has also faded. Earnings pressure may be the next shoe to drop, and recession concerns also still need to be priced in more broadly. Fed’s high-for-longer message is now being taken seriously The September FOMC meeting was not precisely a pivot point for the Fed, but more so for the markets which finally understood the Fed’s message on inflation. The dot plot, particularly, conveyed two key messages as listed below. Even though the accuracy of the dot plot remains in doubt, given a very weak correlation with what actually transpired previously, it is a great signalling tool to understand the intentions of the FOMC members. Terminal rate is seen at ~4.6%, which was above what Fed funds futures were pricing in before the meeting. Even slower growth and higher unemployment levels, as conveyed by the Fed’s projections, would not deter the central bank from hiking rates There was some pushback on premature easing, with the dot plot showing a 4.5-5.0% rate even at the end of December 2023. Alongside that commitment to tighten, the Fed is now at the full pace of its quantitative tightening program, which is sucking liquidity out of financial markets at a rapid pace. The aim is to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet by $95bn a month — double the August pace. While quantitative tightening strongly influences liquidity conditions and asset markets, it is less useful in directly impacting inflation. While systemic risks from QT may remain contained, it ramps up the rise in Treasury yields as the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks and the amount of Treasuries in private hands increases. Trussonomics pushing UK to an emerging market status Sterling has fallen close to 10% on a trade-weighted basis in a little under two months, and has surpassed the Japanese yen to be the weakest against the US dollar year-to-date. An immediate response from the Bank of England may have saved some face, but remember that last week’s BOE decision was a pretty split vote as well with two members voting for 75bps rate hike and one calling for a smaller 25bps rate hike as well. So, it remains hard to expect a prudent policy response from the BOE, and a parity for GBPUSD in that case may not prove to be the floor. UK’s net forex reserves of $100bn are also enough to only cover two months of imports, or roughly equal to 3% of GDP as compared to Japan’s 20% and Switzerland’s 115%. But it’s not just about the sterling crisis in the UK, but more generally a crisis of confidence. Not to forget, inflation forecasts for end of the year are already at 10%+ levels and the market is now pricing in over 200bps of rate hikes by the end of the year, with two meetings left. The central bank will need to deliver this massive tightening simply to keep the sterling where it currently is and that won’t reverse the impact of the government’s decisions on UK markets. The scale and speed of the hikes could also do significant damage to the economy. The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU:arcx) traded lower by another 1.8% on Monday and is now down 7.3% over the last one week. Bank of Japan’s patience will keep getting tested We wrote earlier about what will need to change to call it a top in the US dollar, and nothing seems to be in order yet except some of the non-US officials starting to get concerned about currency weakness. Still, the intervention from Bank of Japan didn’t have long lasting effects on USDJPY, even as it helped to strengthen the yen against some of the other currencies such as the EUR, GBP or AUD. It may have also helped to stop some speculative shorts. But a coordinated intervention in the yen still remains a far cry, with the weakness in the Japanese yen being BoJ's own-doing due to the yield curve control policy. Japanese government bonds will likely continue to test the patience of Bank of Japan with its yield curve control policy. Downside for Japanese government bonds (JGB1c1) will potentially spike exponentially if the BOJ pivots at some point. Earnings pressure may be next While the Q2 earnings season proved to be more resilient than expectations, intensifying inflation concerns have turned corporates more cautious on the outlook and less optimistic for the near-term earnings performances. We have seen some downward revision of EPS estimates for the third quarter in July and August, and we still cannot rule out further grim outlook and margin pressures. Estimates for S&P 500 earnings in 2022 stood at $226.15 per share as of August 31, according to FactSet. This is down 1.5% from the $229.60 per share estimate as of June 30. For 2023, analysts now expect EPS of $243.68, down 2.8% from the June estimate of $250.61. So far, companies dealt with rising inflation by passing on increased costs to consumers, given the pandemic-era fiscal support measures underpinned strength in the consumer side. These increased pass-through was also visible in higher CPI prints. But with the economic outlook getting duller by the day, there is bound to be some pushback from the consumers and that will likely show up in the earnings report card. From a sectoral perspective, tech stocks will likely be battered as tight corporate budgets weigh and the US 10-year yields are in close sights of 4%. Semiconductors, a barometer of global economic health, could also face further pressure. Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector was the saviour of the Q2 earnings season, but would also likely see some pressure in Q3, unless the outlook starts to look slightly more upbeat with improving capex plans. Dollar pivot is the next key catalyst to watch The majority of the market downfall we have seen so far has come from a rapid shift in cost of capital and correcting peak valuation. The next leg, as discussed above could be the earnings recession. Still, economic recession risks remain and history suggests that the market lows do not come until after the recession begins (see chart below). Still, with the US 10-year yields approaching 4% - which maybe a likely ceiling – the focus turns to a reversal in the US dollar as the next pivot, not the Fed. Testing those key levels could mean a short-term bounce in equities which may be favourable for building new short positions as the trend still remains down. Alternatively, for investors, it would rather be optimal to look for signs of selling exhaustion to accumulate long positions, such as VIX above 40. Historically, a decline in stocks of the order of 20% makes it buying stocks after they have been down 20% from record highs has been a good risk/reward proposition for longer-term investors.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/macro-insights-approaching-a-breaking-point-but-not-without-more-pain-first-27092022
The UK Assets Will Be Pressured| Japan And Its A Huge Foreign Debt

The Trend Of The Pound (GBP) And The Actions Of The Bank Of England (BoE) Have A Strong Correlation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 10:42
Pound tumbled to a record low on Monday due to concerns over the stability of the UK's financial position. It followed a strong decline last Friday, which occurred because of the widespread demand for the dollar in the context of the global crisis and geopolitical tensions, as well as the new UK Treasury Chief Kwasi Kwarteng's announcement that the government will implement the biggest tax cut in 50 years while increasing government borrowing and spending despite high inflation. The measures have raised expectations that the Bank of England may go for an emergency increase in the discount rate to strengthen market confidence and the national currency. In addition to the problems mentioned above, the UK is facing weak economic statistics. Business activity in the manufacturing sector reportedly fell below 50 points, which is bad for the economy. If the situation does not change, the pound will fall to parity with the dollar. Perhaps, there may be a local rebound in GBP/USD, but the main trend will be downward until the Bank of England decides on a sharp increase in rates. Forecasts for today: USD/CAD The pair is trading below the support level of 1.3675. A decrease in negative sentiment, local rebound in stock indices and strong rise in oil prices may prompt a further fall to 1.3575. USD/JPY The pair faced resistance at 144.80. But if market sentiment improves, it will bounce back to 143.15.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322744
The Emergence Of Virtual Australian Currency|Situation On The Ethereum Market

The Emergence Of Virtual Australian Currency|Situation On The Ethereum Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 09:19
Crypto Industry News: The Reserve Bank of Australia started cooperation with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center and presented the technical details of the CBDC to be launched on the market. We learned that the work on the pilot version of the digital currency of the country's central bank will be completed by mid-2023. According to a recent announcement, the RBA released a white paper titled "Australian CBDC Pilot for Digital Finance Innovation" which investigates use cases of an upcoming financial product. To create CBDC, the institution teamed up with the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center (DFCRC). All this within the framework of a research project that investigated all the technological, legal and regulatory aspects of CBDC. In addition, the RBA enabled financial industry participants to express their views on the interaction of the digital currency with the national monetary network. Ordinary non-institutional test participants could also evaluate the product and test its application. The entire research process is expected to end in early 2023, and the results are expected to be announced by the middle of next year. Recall that in September 2021, the Reserve Bank joined forces with the central banks of Malaysia, Singapore and South Africa to test cross-border transactions using CBDC. The Innovation Center of the Bank for International Settlements also participated in the project, supervising the activities of the above-mentioned financial institutions. Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia - Fraziali Ismail - argued that the joint multi-CBDC program "has the potential to leapfrog past payment arrangements and serve as the basis for a more efficient international clearing platform." Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum bulls are trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. So far the bulls were able to break out from the narrow zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,358 and made a local high at the level of $1,393. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the bounce might extend towards the key short-term technical resistance located at $1,407. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294354
An Arrest Warrant For The CEO Of Terraform Labs| Bitcoin Keeps Its Trend

An Arrest Warrant For The CEO Of Terraform Labs| Bitcoin Keeps Its Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 09:13
Crypto Industry News: Despite the fact that the founder of Terraform Labs claims that he is open to cooperation with legal authorities, the South Korean authorities found him elusive, and as a result, in cooperation with Interpol, countries cooperating with the institution were called to detain him. As a result of Singapore authorities' inability to capture Do Kwon, where he is officially arriving, Interpol issued a red note signaling that the charges against him were serious enough to deserve international standing. The red note does not in itself constitute an arrest warrant, as it is a request to the countries cooperating with Interpol to track down and temporarily detain a given person on behalf of the country where the refugee is being sought. Currently, the red note does not appear on the official Interpol website yet. However, according to Bloomberg, authorities in Seoul have confirmed that such a request has been made in the case of Do Kwon. South Korean authorities issued an arrest warrant for the CEO of Terraform Labs two weeks ago, citing violations of local capital laws. At the time, Kwon was believed to be at his home in Singapore. Later, this information was denied by law enforcement, which determined on September 17 that he was not there. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair had broken out from the narrow zone located between the levels of $18,640 - $19,361 and made a local high at the level of $20,333 (at the time of writing the article). The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $20,473 and $20,580 and only a sustained breakout above this levels would change the outlook to more bullish. The market conditions on the H4 time frame are now extremely overbought, so please keep an eye on the supply zone located at $20,473 and $20,580 for abnormal bearish activity. The nearest technical support is seen at $19,815. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,226 WR2 - $18,987 WR1 - $18,829 Weekly Pivot - $18,742 WS1 - $18,587 WS2 - $18,500 WS3 - $18,259 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The Bears Are Still In Charge Of Cable Market (The Pound To US Dollar)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 09:10
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had collapsed towards the new swing low at the level of 1.0352, which is the lowest level since 1985. The market conditions are extremely oversold on the H4,Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames, so the bulls are trying to extend the bounce to over 500 pips. Local pull-back had tested the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0890, but this resistance looks very weak, so the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of 1.0929. The next technical resistance is located at 1.1210 and 1.1410 and only a sustained breakout above this level would change the outlook to bullish. On the other hand, the next target for bears is located at the parity level of 1.0000, so please keep an eye on this level. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16907 WR2 - 1.11401 WR1 - 1.08850 Weekly Pivot - 1.05895 WS1 - 1.03344 WS2 - 1.00389 WS3 - 0.94883 Trading Outlook: The bears are still in charge of Cable market and the next target for them is the parity level. The level of 1.0351 has not been seen since 1985, so the down trend is strong, however, the market is extremely oversold on longer time frames already. On the other hand, in order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294350
Ethereum Prices Should Hold Above Interim Support To Keep The Bullish Structure Intact

Ethereum Prices Should Hold Above Interim Support To Keep The Bullish Structure Intact

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 09:02
Technical outlook: Ethereum climbed through $1,380-90 during the Asian session on Tuesday after reversing from $1,280-85 over the weekend. The crypto is seen to be trading close to $1,385 at this point in writing and is heading towards $1,450 and $1,550-70 in the near term. Ideally, prices should hold above the $1,270-80 interim support to keep the bullish structure intact. Ethereum had earlier dropped from the $2,031 highs through $1,220, carving a meaningful downswing. Please note that the drop was in three waves and hence corrective in nature. Furthermore, prices found support through the past resistance-turned-support zone and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $800 and $2,031. A high probability remains for a push above $2,031 in the next several weeks. Initial resistance is seen through $1,790-1800 and a break higher will confirm a further upside. A minor rally is expected to reach up to the $1,550-80 zone, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent downswing between $1,790 and $1,220. Trading plan: Potential rally through $1,790-1,800 against $900 Good luck!   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294334
The Bullish Trend Is Currently Very Strong For The EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD Pair: A High Probability Remains For A Bullish Reversal

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 08:55
Technical outlook: EURUSD dropped below the 0.9600 handle during the New York session on Monday before finding support around 0.9580. The single currency pair has bounced back and is seen to be trading close to 0.9640 at this time of writing. We cannot rule out the possibility of yet another low below 0.9552 but the probability remains for the bulls to take control soon. EURUSD seems to have carved a meaningful low at 0.9552 on Monday and a break above 1.0200 in the near term will confirm it. Please note that 1.0200 is initial resistance and that the bulls are eyeing that mark in the next few trading sessions. The much-awaited counter-trend rally is expected to gather pace thereafter and push the price through 1.0600 in the next several weeks. A major Fibonacci extension has been hit around 0.9698 as projected on the daily chart here. A high probability remains for a bullish reversal from current levels. The bottom line remains for the bulls to hold prices above 0.9552 interim support/low to keep the near-term structure valid. We should watch for a potential Engulfing Bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart for further confirmation. Trading plan: Preparing for a bullish reversal against 0.9500 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294332
The GBP/USD Market And The Next Target For Them Is The Parity Level

The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair Continues Its Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 08:46
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair showed a volatility of almost 600 points on Monday. During the day, the pair managed to cover such a distance both up and down. Thus, there was no talk of any adequate movement on Monday. In our fundamental articles, we tried to figure out what exactly provoked such a strong movement, and came to the conclusion that the panic in the market, which was caused by a combination of factors, played the greatest role. Thus, a similar market sentiment may remain this week. The price continues to settle below the trend line, which now lies at a fairly long distance from it. Therefore, in the near future we should hardly expect a consolidation above it. Otherwise, we will not understand that the downward trend is over (according to the current trading system). Individual macroeconomic and fundamental events may not matter to traders this week. Despite the fact that the volatility went off scale, and there were no levels at the current price levels, one trading signal was still formed. At the beginning of the US session, the price rebounded from the critical line, which was a sell signal. Traders could open short positions. Since there was not a single level or line below, the position had to be closed manually in the late afternoon. Profit on it amounted to about 185 points. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new decline, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players can only intensify in the near future. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 27. The euro continues to fall by inertia. The results of the elections in Italy have nothing to do with it. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 27. The pound finally has a real chance of completing a long downtrend. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 27. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair continues its downward trend on the hourly timeframe, which is already in fact a collapse. What else do we call an 800-point move in two days? In the coming days, the pair can fly from side to side for mind-boggling distances, and the fundamentals and macroeconomics are unlikely to have any significance for the market. We highlight the following important levels on September 27: 1.0357, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442. Senkou Span B (1.1475) and Kijun-sen (1.0909) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. No major events scheduled in the UK on Tuesday, and we will only receive an ordinary report on orders for durable goods in America. It is unlikely that with the volatility of 600 points a day earlier, this report will have at least some impact on the pair's movement. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322718
The EUR/USD Pair: There Is Nothing New In This Market, It Is Not Bullish Yet

Perspective Of The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Currency Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 08:17
EUR/USD 5M The euro/dollar immediately fell by 150 points on Monday. This was followed by recovery, corrections, which, however, were purely corrective in nature, that is, the current downward trend is not broken. The most important fact is this: despite the strongest fall in the euro in recent weeks, there is still no feeling that the downward trend is over, or even close to being over. The price even bounced up by one and a half hundred points on Monday, but then it resumed its downward movement anyway. Moreover, on Monday, except for the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, there was absolutely nothing to highlight. In our fundamental articles, we have already analyzed why the elections in Italy are not related to the euro's collapse. Yes, and Lagarde herself spoke much later than the euro's overnight collapse and the subsequent rapid recovery. Thus, we believe that the market is simply fleeing in a panic from risky assets, and not from all of them, since bitcoin practically does not move. Not a single trading signal was formed on Monday, because the pair has not been at current price levels for more than 20 years. One new level has appeared - 0.9553 - and today signals can be formed around it, but we urge you to be careful with opening any positions, as the market is now clearly in a state of panic. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial traders, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not provide any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 27. The euro continues to fall by inertia. The results of the elections in Italy have nothing to do with it. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 27. The pound finally has a real chance of completing a long downtrend. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 27. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The bears' prospects remain just fine on the hourly timeframe, given that now no one is even thinking about buying the euro. To say that a new collapse of the euro was provoked by some one specific event simply does not make sense. From our point of view, the market is in a panic, and it is hardly possible to say how long it will persist and how it will end. We highlight the following levels for trading on Tuesday - 0.9553, 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0002) and Kijun-sen (0.9786). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Another speech by Lagarde will take place in the European Union on September 27, which is unlikely to affect anything, and a report on orders for durable goods will be published in the US, which is also unlikely to affect anything. The market may remain in a state of shock for several more days. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322716
Many Of Big Losers On The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange

Many Of Big Losers On The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2022 08:10
At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.11% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.60%. Walmart Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 1.25 points (0.96%) to close at 131.31. Apple Inc rose 0.34 points (0.23%) to close at 150.77. Procter & Gamble Company rose 0.13 points or 0.10% to close at 135.71. The biggest losers were The Travelers Companies Inc, which shed 4.88 points or 3.14% to end the session at 150.60. Boeing Co was up 2.99% or 3.92 points to close at 127.34, while Chevron Corp was down 2.63% or 3.81 points to close at 140.96. . Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Wynn Resorts Limited, which rose 11.99% to 66.80, Las Vegas Sands Corp, which gained 11.81% to close at 39.66. as well as Costco Wholesale Corp, which rose 2.98% to end the session at 480.30. The losers were DISH Network Corporation, which shed 6.12% to close at 14.27. Shares of The AES Corporation shed 5.48% to end the session at 22.96. Quotes of Halliburton Company decreased in price by 5.17% to 23.31. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were LAVA Therapeutics NV, which rose 97.50% to 4.74, DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd, which gained 42.87% to close at 0.45. as well as shares of Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 25.96% to close the session at 0.34. The biggest losers were Powerbridge Technologies Co Ltd, which shed 68.57% to close at 0.50. Shares of Scienjoy Holding Corp lost 43.77% to end the session at 1.67. Quotes of Snow Lake Resources Ltd fell in price by 40.88% to 1.88. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2652) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (536), while quotes of 132 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,592 stocks fell, 1,248 rose, and 275 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 7.82% to 32.26, hitting a new 3-month high. Gold futures for December delivery lost 1.56%, or 25.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 2.82%, or 2.22, to $76.52 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.81%, or 2.39, to $82.64 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.84% to hit 0.96, while USD/JPY edged up 0.94% to hit 144.66. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.98% to 114.07.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294320
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

Wow! US Dollar (USD) Is Close To Break Records, GBP/USD May Change If Bank Of England Or Fed Surprise

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 16:18
More recently, market participants discussed the probability and timing of achieving euro parity with the dollar, and the same conversations are already underway around the pound. It is rapidly weakening, including mainly paired with the dollar. After a strong fall last Friday, the pound also fell sharply during the Asian trading session today, and the GBP/USD pair fell to 1.0353, a new local and record low for more than 37 years. As British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng said last Friday, "We (the government) need a new approach for a new era, focused on growth. Our goal in the medium term is to achieve a trend growth rate of 2.5%." To this end, among other measures to stabilize the economic situation, taxes and duties will be significantly reduced, and one of the sources of budget replenishment in the UK government was the reduction in unemployment benefits (note that this measure in itself is a factor reducing inflation). Also, on Friday, disappointing UK macro data were released. Private sector business activity continued to decline, with the preliminary composite PMI slipping to 48.4 in September from 49.6 in August, below the expected 49.0. In addition, a recent survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed that retail sales fell to -20 in September from +37 in August, another negative factor for the pound.     Meanwhile, the strengthening of the dollar continues to gain momentum. Its DXY index broke another "round" resistance level of 114.00 on Monday, reaching a new local high since April 2002 at around 114.41. The dollar's upside momentum continues, pushing the DXY to new highs on its way to over 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. No important publications (macro statistics) are planned today. But, perhaps, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of the representatives of the Fed (at 14:00 GMT) and the Bank of England (at 16:00 GMT). If they make unexpected announcements, then the volatility in the GBP/USD pair will increase again.     The GBP/USD pair is attempting a correction after the strongest drop (by 900 points) during today's Asian session and Friday's trade. As of writing, it is trading near the 1.0700 mark. Strong bearish momentum continues to weigh on the pair. So far, it makes no sense to talk about its purchases, at least not before a confident breakdown into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1248. Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322674
The Euro-Dollar Market: In The Current Situation It Is Hardly Possible To Say That The Situation Has Stabilized

EUR/USD: Is There Any Premise Of The Euro To US Dollar Future?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 16:10
  The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not require adjustments, but it is undoubtedly becoming more complicated. We saw the completion of the construction of the next five-wave impulse descending wave structure, then one correction wave upward, after which the low waves of 5 were updated. These movements allow me to conclude that the pattern of five months ago was repeated when the 5-wave structure down was completed in the same way, one wave up, and we saw five more waves down. There is no question of any classical wave structure (5 trend waves, 3 correction waves) right now. The news background is such that the market even builds single corrective waves with great reluctance. Thus, in such circumstances, I cannot predict the end of the downward trend segment. We can still observe the pattern of a strong wave down "a weak corrective wave up" for a very long time. The goals of the downward trend segment, which has been complicated and lengthened many times, can be found up to 90 figures, and maybe even lower. The market should be blamed for the fall of the euro currency. At the moment, many analysts note that relations between Brussels and Rome may become seriously complicated The euro/dollar instrument fell by 130 basis points on Monday and then rose by 80. For the European currency, the first day of the week passed relatively calmly, as the pound sterling fell by 400 points simultaneously. On Saturday, I questioned the assumption that the business activity indices caused a strong fall in the euro and the pound on Friday. As we can see, Monday has already shown us this is the case. After the usual statistical data (and there was nothing terrible or beautiful in the indexes), the instruments do not pass by several hundred points. The normal reaction to the indices is a movement of 30-50 points. Even before Friday's reports, most indices were below the key 50.0 mark, meaning the market was not shocked by the sudden decline in business activity. Read more: The Statement By Elon Musk About Starlink May Cause Confusion | Leaders Must Take Action To Protect The Environment | FXMAG.COM I can say the same about another news background. For example, today it became known about the victory in the elections in Italy of far-right parties, which, to put it mildly, are not too focused on the European values that Brussels preaches. At the moment, many analysts note that relations between Brussels and Rome may become seriously complicated, but there is no word that Italy may leave the European Union or may now adhere to a radically different policy than the one that has been in recent years. The government has changed, but what has changed for the country itself if it still remains in the European Union, where all decisions are made collectively and at the highest level, which presupposes the consent of the majority of the alliance members? Therefore, I personally believe that the election results, which, by the way, were not yet known at night, are also not the reason for a new decline in demand for the euro currency. It seems to me that the foreign exchange market has been in a state of shock due to too much negative economic, political and geopolitical news. General conclusions. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section continues, but can end at any time. At this time, the instrument continues to decline, so I advise careful sales with targets located near the estimated mark of 0.9397, which equates to 423.6% Fibonacci. I urge caution, as it is unclear how much longer the decline in the euro currency will continue. At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any kind of length, so I think it's best now to isolate the three and five wave standard structures from the overall picture and work on them. One of these five waves can be just completed now, and the new one has begun its construction.   Relevance up to 15:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322690
PBoC Talks CNY And Forex Market. Check How Have US Stocks, EURUSD And Other Assets Been Performing Recently

Under What Circumstances Could US Dollar (USD) Decrease?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 16:03
The dollar is so scary that its opponents don't even think about how to stop it. They just ran from the battlefield. The yen was not helped by the first currency interventions since 1998, the pound by fiscal incentives from the new British government, and the euro by the confident victory of the alliance led by Georgia Meloni in the snap elections in Italy. According to RAI forecasts, she won 43% of the popular vote, which implies 114 Senate seats. The majority required 104. A strong Cabinet of Ministers is good news for EURUSD, as political risks are reduced. However, this does not save the main currency pair. Neither the expectations of the acceleration of European inflation from 9.1% to 9.6% in September nor the "hawkish" rhetoric of the members of the Governing Council helped the euro. According to the head of the Bank of Lithuania, Gediminas Simkus, the minimum size of the deposit rate increase in October is 50 bps. His colleague from Latvia, Martins Kazaks, is ready to vote for +75 bps. The rally in gas futures and the cancellation of measures to mitigate the impact of high prices in Germany can push the eurozone CPI to a new record peak.     The dynamics of European inflation However, no matter how much good news there is for the euro, it cannot resist the US dollar. For the USD index to begin to decline, two conditions are required: an improvement in global risk appetite; and, secondly, the global economy being ahead of the American economy in terms of growth rates. Neither one nor the other is currently unrealistic. The Fed is the pack's leader, and all the other central banks are moving after it. And judging by the massive tightening of monetary policy, they took to heart Jerome Powell's statement about his willingness to sacrifice the economy to defeat inflation. Thus, the United States exports to the rest of the world at high prices and as a cure for them in the form of aggressive monetary restrictions. And this does nothing good for competitors. Their economies are slowing down, and stock indexes worldwide are falling, and so is global risk appetite. As a result, the demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset is growing.     The divergence in US economic growth with the rest of the world is also expanding because the United States is a net energy exporter, they sell LNG, and the energy crisis has affected them to a lesser extent than the eurozone, Britain, and Japan. The state of the current accounts of these countries is rapidly deteriorating, which has led the euro to a 20–year bottom against the dollar, the yen to a 24–year low, and the pound to a record low. It is unlikely that the situation will change in the near future. Especially considering the onset of cold weather in the Old World ahead of time. They will push gas prices up and the EURUSD – down, in the direction of 0.9. Technically, the formation of Wolf Waves has been completed on the monthly EURUSD chart. A necessary condition for a reversal of the downtrend requires the pair to return above the lower limit of the fair value of 1.018-1.14, which so far looks unlikely. We continue to sell euros with targets of 0.945-0.95 and 0.915.   Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322686
Forex: Friday's NFP Release May Support US Dollar (USD). EUR/USD May Reach 0.95

Could US Dollar Index (DXY) Decrease Below 107.40?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 15:23
  US Dollar Index Chart - Where Is The Support? The US dollar index rose to fresh highs at about 114.35 during the early trading hours on Monday before finding resistance and reversing sharply lower. The index is seen to be trading close to 113.00 at this point in writing. It is expected to continue drifting lower towards 110.17 going forward. The bulls might have carved a potential top around 114.36 as the bears are getting ready to break below 112.85 now. Read next: The Statement By Elon Musk About Starlink May Cause Confusion | Leaders Must Take Action To Protect The Environment | FXMAG.COM The 1-hour chart presented here is indicating initial support at 110.17, followed by 109.00 and 107.40 levels. Potential resistance stays at 114.35 respectively. A break below 110.17 will confirm with respect to the price action that a top is in place and the bears are back in control. It is not shown here but a Doji/Pinbar candlestick pattern is being carved on the daily chart. DXY - What Can We Expect From The USD Index In The Near Future? The US dollar index might be setting up for a larger-degree corrective drop towards 107.40 and further in the coming weeks. We need to see a bearish candle formation on the daily chart to confirm the same. While it is early to confirm a bearish resumption, a high probability remains for a meaningful top to be in place at 114.35 so that the bears are back in control soon. Trading idea: Preparing for a potential drop against 114.35 soon. Good luck! Relevance up to 15:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294251
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

Mixed Sentiment In The Gold Market Due To Rising Dollar (USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 14:27
The inexorable rally of the US dollar to 20-year highs is taking its toll on the gold market. Prices ended last week near their lowest level since April 2020. The extraordinary momentum of the dollar and rising bond yields turned Wall Street analysts into bearish sentiment. At the same time, according to the latest weekly survey, retail investors are more optimistic that prices may rise this week. A total of 19 market professionals took part in Wall Street survey last week. Ten analysts, or 53%, said they are bearish on gold this week. At the same time, six analysts, or 32%, said they expect prices to rise in the near future, and three, or 16%, are neutral about the precious metal. In the retail sector, 963 respondents took part in online surveys. A total of 469 voters, or 49%, called for gold to rise. Another 341, or 35%, predicted a fall in prices. The remaining 153 voters, or 16%, were in favor of a side market. Retail investor sentiment improved from the previous week. The past week has been volatile for the gold market as the precious metal managed to maintain critical support levels even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and signaled that the federal funds rate could exceed 4.5% next year. Many analysts say gold has been able to withstand the US central bank's aggressive monetary policy as the threat of a recession continues to grow. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he didn't know if the central bank's move would send the US economy into recession but added that consumers should expect some trouble as lower growth is needed to contain inflation. Similarly, analysts believe that the threat of a recession created some initial demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, that sentiment has been dampened by volatility in global currency markets as the British pound suffered its biggest price drop since 2016, when the country voted to leave the European Union. The sell-off was triggered after Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the government's new budget, with spending commitments of between £36bn and £45bn over the next four fiscal years. The massive spending initiative will be paid for with new debt. Analysts note that the dominance of the US dollar can be felt in a wide-ranging sell-off in the commodity sector. Although there is still some optimism in the market as many see gold as oversold and see any rally as a short term correction. Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, sees a short-term rebound as bond yields consolidate. He added that he is observing if support at $1,650 can hold. Many analysts are bearish on gold as they expect the US dollar may still rise.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322658
The UK Assets Will Be Pressured| Japan And Its A Huge Foreign Debt

The Collapse Of The Pound (GBP) And Lack Of Market Confidence In The New UK Government

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 14:20
Pound has already lost nearly 400 pips on Friday, then this morning sank further by 5%. The reason was the new Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng's vow to continue cutting taxes, which raised fears of another sharp increase in inflation and public debt. The decline was the biggest intraday drop since March 2020, when investors panicked over the emerging Covid-19 pandemic. A number of economists have urged the Bank of England to take actions, but this will only exacerbate the fears in global financial markets and put the administration of Liz Truss at risk as the UK continues to grapple with the cost-of-living crisis. Nevertheless, the collapse of the pound indicates that markets do not trust the new UK government, especially since the national currency is rapidly moving towards parity and there is a huge chance that the situation will only worsen further. Kwarteng laid out the UK's most drastic tax relief package since 1972 yesterday, cutting fees on both workers' and companies' wages in an effort to boost the long-term potential of the economy. He also lowered stamp duty on property purchases, lifted a cap on bank bonuses and reaffirmed support for households and businesses on rising electricity bills over the next six months. Although pound bounced up earlier, traders are set to further decline as the options market is currently showing a 60% chance of it weakening to parity against dollar this year. A massive sell-off is sure to force the Bank of England to act more aggressively, and if the situation continues to go downhill, there will be an extraordinary increase in interest rates between meetings. Pound has so far collapsed to an unprecedented level - 1.0360, which creates quite a few problems. A correction will occur only when buyers become more active this week. It will surely open a direct path to the highs of 1.0700, 1.0760 and even 1.0805. But if pressure continues, GBP/USD will fall to 1.0500 and 1.0430. In terms of EUR/USD, a lot depends on 0.9605 because a drop below it will push quotes lower to 0.9560, 0.9510 and 0.9455. Price will increase only when buyers manage to bring the pair to 0.9710, then push it to 0.9770, 0.9810 and 0.9860.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322632
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Is Facing The Consequences Of The Rising Inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Is Facing The Consequences Of The Rising Inflation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 14:13
The Federal Reserve is facing one of its most difficult times, which began with the enforced worldwide lockdown that brought the global economy to a standstill. This led to excessive government stimulus. The result: rising inflation and a critical blunder by the Federal Reserve that led the economy into a potential intractable crisis. This was the single but critical fallacy of the Fed that made it impossible for the US economy not to enter a deep recession with high and persistent inflation that would hurt the economy for years to come. The Fed did nothing The Federal Reserve System has for many years maintained the view that inflation is transitory. On the assumption that rising inflation was a temporary scenario that would naturally work out over time, the Fed did nothing. By not raising interest rates a few years ago when inflation began to rise, they sealed the fate of creating the economic scenario that was currently in place. This inaction put the Fed in a position where it was too late to act. Because the Federal Reserve did not respond in a timely manner, it lost the ability to effectively stem the rise in inflation. There has never been a case in history when the Federal Reserve effectively reduced inflation without raising interest rates. Forced lockdowns and the 2020 recession resulted in an average inflationary pressure of 1.2%. In 2021, inflation was 1.4% in January, and was already 2.6% in March. If the Federal Reserve were to step in and start raising rates rather than keeping inflation going, it could have dramatic consequences. Instead, the Federal Reserve did nothing. If they had acted at this point and started slowly raising interest rates that were artificially set low between 0 and a%, they would have made a huge impact by simply bringing interest rates up to 2%. The Fed will need to raise rates In April 2021, inflation was 4.2%, and the Federal Reserve continued to do nothing and artificially lower interest rates. By May 2021, inflation rose to 5%, and to 5.4% in June, and the Fed still did nothing. In fact, inflation rose to 6.2% in October, 6.8% in November and 7% in December, while the Federal Reserve still did nothing and kept interest rates artificially low. By the time the Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate hike in March 2022, inflation was already at 8%. For now, the Fed will need to raise rates to at least 8% to have any sustained impact on lowering inflation. It is clear that the signs of rising inflation that took place in 2021 showed a clear and systemic increase by the first quarter, when the Fed should have acted, but did not. It was its basic misconception that inflation was transient that led to the inactivity of the Federal Reserve before it was too late. The consequences of the inaction Now the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce inflation by raising interest rates that cannot be sustained for a long time. With the national debt well above 120% of GDP, if interest rates were raised from 3% to 8% today, it would add $1.5 trillion a year to service the national debt. Clearly, the Federal Reserve has backed itself into a corner, and because of a critical mistake that forced them to do nothing when they could have had a strong and immediate impact on inflation, instead they sat on the sidelines and watched interest rates spiral out of control. In the coming years, the consequences of the inaction of the Federal Reserve System will certainly take place in the form of a deep and prolonged recession and high inflation, which at best will remain at a level of just above 4%.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322656
A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

Kiyosaki's Statement On The End Of Fake Dollar And Points To A Safe Haven For Investors

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 13:52
Over the weekend, the rate of ether and bitcoin traded quite calmly within the side channel. However, there is still not enough optimism about a larger upward correction of these trading instruments. But before we talk about the technical picture, I would like to say a few words about the recent advice of the well-loved Robert Kiyosaki—the famous author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad." Kiyosaki recently said that fake money has come to an "end" and gave three tips to help investors succeed in market crashes. Kiyosaki tweeted why, in his opinion, the end of "fake" money has come. "End is here. Called Jerry Williams, my trusted gold and silver dealer. He said: 'I can't get gold or silver coins. The mint will not sell me anymore.' To me, this means the end of fake $ is here." The well-known author echoed his recent recommendation: "As stated in earlier tweet silver going to $100 to $500." His advice was immediately followed by another statement in which he claimed that gold is expensive, calling silver the best investment value to date. Kiyosaki's reasoning is very simple: when President Richard Nixon decoupled the US dollar from its peg to gold, the so-called gold standard, in 1971, the US dollar simply became fake money. The author also recalled three lessons of investing: 1: Your home is not an asset. 2: People who save money are losers. 3: The rich don't work for dollars. Last week, Kiyosaki urged people to "invest in real money," naming bitcoin, gold and silver. He stressed that the Federal Reserve is now doing everything to destroy the U.S. economy amid the interest rate hikes. Kiyosaki urged subscribers to buy cryptocurrency now, ahead of the biggest crash in world history. The well-known author has been claiming for months that he is waiting for the price of the cryptocurrency to bottom out before entering. As for today's technical picture of bitcoin, as I noted above, nothing much has changed since the weekend. The focus is now on the immediate resistance of $19,000, the return of which is "like air" needed in the near future. If this area is broken, you can see a push up to $19,520 and then to $20,000. To build a larger upward trend, it is necessary to break above the resistance of $20,540 and $21,140. If the pressure on Bitcoin returns, and most likely it will, the bulls should make every effort to protect the $18,600 support that has already been tested several times. Its breakout will quickly push the trading instrument back to $18,100 and open the way to update the $17,580 level. Ethereum remains above $1,270 after the recent crash that occurred immediately after the switch to PoS. The most important task for buyers in the current environment is to get back under control of the $1,350 resistance, which will be quite difficult to get above. Its breakdown will lead to stabilization of the market direction and a slight correction to the $1,440 area. The further target will be the $1,504 and $1,550 areas. If the pressure on the trading instrument continues and the rather important $1,270 support is broken, this will push the Ethereum to $1,210 and $1,150, where the big players will again appear in the market. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322638
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Retail Investors Posted The Biggest Losses On European Stock Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 12:46
European stock indices hit new yearly lows and the main index of the UK broke through its summer low amid a sell-off triggered by rising recession risks. The Stoxx50 index lost 0.6% in early European trade. Miners and retail investors posted the biggest losses, while tech stocks scored gains. The Stoxx50 index broke through its yearly low. The FTSE 100 index updated its summer low. Today, it bounced slightly off the psychological level of 7,000: Italy's FTSE MIB dropped by 0.1%, following Giorgia Meloni's win of a clear majority in Sunday's Italian election. The European benchmark index plummeted by 21% from its January high amid a collapse in the market triggered by rising recession risks, the energy crisis, and the hawkish stance of the large central banks. Investors are closely monitoring the inflation situation. The European Central Bank is forecast to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points at the next meeting. "In terms of our central bank expectations at this juncture, risks of them over-tightening have significantly increased and that leading to a recession has increased too," Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc. said. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322646
The Euro Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

The GBP/USD And The EUR/USD Currency Pairs Are On The Bearish Side

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 12:30
EUR/USD Higher timeframes Last week, the pair left the correction zone and resumed its decline. The benchmarks for a downward trend on higher timeframes can now be 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.8225 (2000 low). In the event of another slowdown or corrective rise, resistance in the higher timeframes may be provided by the levels of the daily cross, which in the current situation went down to the lines of 0.9800 - 0.9876, as well as the strengthened area of 0.9961 - 1.0000 (weekly short-term trend + psychological level). H4 – H1 By now, bears have tested the second support of the classic pivot points (0.9552). The next reference point for the intraday decline is the third support of the classic pivot points (0.9437). Now the main advantage belongs to the bears. However, in the last few hours on the lower timeframes, the pair is in the zone of a corrective rise. The most significant reference points for the development of an upward correction today are the resistance of key levels—0.9736 (central pivot point) and 0.9877 (weekly long-term trend). The intermediate resistance in this range can be noted at 0.9805 (R1). When testing the indicated levels, an upward correction of the daily timeframe (0.9800 - 0.9876) will also be executed. Therefore, a breakdown of resistance and consolidation above can change the current balance of power not only in the lower timeframes. The overall situation, in this case, would be better assessed once again. *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes The downward trend has been restored and is developing. The next nearest target is the psychological support level of 1.0000. The levels passed earlier today rushed behind the price chart and formed the boundaries of resistance. So, the nearest resistance levels are now the levels of the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0172 - 1.1178), above there is a zone that combines several levels at once, 1.1324 - 1.1429 (weekly levels + broken level of the 2020 low). H4 – H1 The main advantage is on the side of the bears. However, before reaching the final support of the classic pivot points at 1.0262, the decline stopped. The pair is currently in the correction zone on the lower timeframes, which tends to develop. The most important benchmarks of the upward correction today can be noted at 1.0984 (central pivot point) and 1.1232 (weekly long-term trend). The intermediate resistance is at 1.1130 (R1 is the resistance of the classic Pivot levels). *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322636
As A Result Of The Bank Of Japan Intervention, The USD/JPY Pair Went Into A Steep Peak

The Actions Of The Fed And The Bank Of Japan Are Drowning The Japanese Currency (JPY)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 12:22
The dollar burst on horseback in the new working week, and the USD/JPY pair regained strength. The asset jumped by more than 0.3% at the beginning of Monday and broke through the resistance at 144. The dollar broke loose Recall that last week the dollar-yen pair tickled the nerves of traders more than once, getting into a zone of increased turbulence. First, on the increased monetary divergence between the US and Japan, the asset managed to reach a new 24-year high at 145. And then, as a result of the currency intervention carried out by Japan in support of its national currency, the quote sharply collapsed from this peak by more than 500 points. The intervention of the Japanese authorities helped JPY to complete the last seven days in a slight positive. This was the first weekly growth of the yen in a month. However, as analysts predicted, the effect of unilateral intervention was short-lived. The USD/JPY pair started the new working week with a steady growth. During the Asian session, the Japanese currency fell again against its US counterpart below the 144 mark. The pressure on the JPY was exerted by a large-scale rally of the dollar. On Monday morning, the greenback reached another high against the euro and the pound. Thus, the euro fell against the dollar by 0.4%, to $0.9654, as the Democrats lost to the far-right party in the parliamentary elections in Italy. Such an outcome opens the way to the political restructuring of the EU. Meanwhile, the British pound fell in price against the dollar by 2.8%, to a record low of $1.0555. Fears of an even greater increase in inflation if the government implements a plan to reduce taxes contributed to the pound's fall. At the time of release, the dollar strengthened on almost all fronts, as a result of which the DXY index soared by more than 0.5%, to a new 20-year peak at 114.58. Why is the demand for USD growing? The strong jump in the US currency was caused by an increase in anti-risk sentiment and an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds. World stock markets are falling now for two main reasons. The first is another escalation of the conflict between Russia and the West. This time, relations have worsened amid referendums held by the Kremlin in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, as well as in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine. Moscow has promised to take these regions under full protection if they become part of Russia. Western politicians regarded this as a direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons. Also, the growth of fears about the global recession contributes to a decrease in risk appetite. The wave of rate hikes observed last week significantly worsened forecasts for global economic growth. As major central banks continue to raise rates, their economies are noticeably weaker. The only exception is the US. Despite the fact that the Fed is at the forefront of tightening monetary policy, the American economy is still firmly on its feet. This is evidenced by the latest US macro data published on Friday. A report from S&P Global showed that in September, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of America rose from 51.5 to 51.8, while its counterpart in the service sector recovered from 44.6 to 49.3. Positive statistics helped to strengthen expectations of a more aggressive Fed policy, especially since at the end of the week, officials of the US central bank intensified their hawkish rhetoric. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank is determined to continue actively fighting inflation. The comments of Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard and Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic were in the same spirit. Hawkish speeches by politicians helped to disperse the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to 3.74%, which inspired the dollar to a new record. You can't envy the yen The aggressive position of the US central bank in relation to interest rates is what is now drowning the Japanese currency. Despite the recently thrown lifeline in the form of intervention, the yen is increasingly sinking to the bottom and risks approaching the red line again – the 145 mark. An additional ballast that does not allow the JPY to go up is the news about the next dovish actions of the Bank of Japan. On Monday morning, it became known that the BOJ again decided to increase the volume of bond purchases, as the benchmark yield of 10-year Japanese bonds jumped to the upper limit of the acceptable trading range of the central bank. Also, strong pressure on the JPY was exerted by the statement of the former chief currency diplomat of Japan, Naoyuki Shinohara. In an interview with Reuters, the official said that the government is unlikely to go for another large-scale intervention, so as not to draw fire from other G7 participants. – The most that the authorities can do now is to try to smooth out the volatility in the foreign exchange market with small purchases of the yen, but this will clearly not be enough to reverse the downward trend, – he stressed. Nevertheless, traders playing bullish for the USD/JPY pair should be on their guard. Some analysts do not rule out that the Japanese authorities may again intervene, which will cause a short-term rebound of the quote. This is evidenced by today's comments by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. On Monday morning, the politician issued another warning: "We are deeply concerned about the recent rapid decline of the yen, partly caused by speculative trading, and our position of readiness to respond to such steps as necessary has not changed," he said. The increased risk of intervention may become a minor obstacle for bulls on the dollar-yen pair in the short term. However, most analysts believe that this week the asset will still move mainly in the upward direction. In the coming days, the dollar may receive several more powerful impulses for growth, as a number of speeches by Fed representatives are expected throughout the week. According to experts, American politicians will continue to bend the hawkish line, which will further add fuel to the fire of monetary divergence between the United States and Japan. This will favor the dollar's growth, as a result of which the USD/JPY pair can demonstrate another record.   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322630
Ethereum Co-Founder Buterin Has Urged Zcash To Switch To PoS

Ethereum Co-Founder Buterin Has Urged Zcash To Switch To PoS

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 12:05
Crypto Industry News: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes other blockchain such as Dogecoin and Zcash should follow the same strategy once the Ethereum fusion has ended. When asked during Messari Mainnet 2022 if all networks should go proof-of-stake (PoS), Buterin said yes. Zooko Wilcox-O'Hearn, founder of Zcash, was also present at the conference. Vitalik said: "I predict that as the proof of stake evolves, its credibility will grow over time." This is not the first time Buterin has urged Zcash to switch to PoS. He suggested the same idea in 2018. Ethereum switched to PoS on September 15, following The Merge update. Buterin said the event went smoothly, even though each test network connection encountered "some form of staircase." Buterin identified scalability as the most important challenge for the next 18 months, adding that the ecosystem must "deliver" this. The merger made it possible to drastically minimize the impact of blockchain on the environment. Dogecoin overtook Bitcoin as the second largest proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency. Technical Market Outlook: The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for Ethereum bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. So far the bulls were able to stay inside the narrow zone located between the levels of $1,281 - $1,358 as the market had been trading inside the zone all the weekend long. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. The momentum is neutral-to-negative on the H4 time frame chart, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,352 WR2 - $1,322 WR1 - $1,302 Weekly Pivot - $1,291 WS1 - $1,271 WS2 - $1,260 WS3 - $1,230 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281 as a part of the demand zone located between the levels of $1,252 - $1,295. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294179
New Light On The History Of Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's Downward Trend Without The Possibility Of Indicating The End

New Light On The History Of Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's Downward Trend Without The Possibility Of Indicating The End

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 11:59
Crypto Industry News: Bitcoin.org, the Internet domain associated with Bitcoin, was created on August 18, 2008 as part of the AnonymousSpeech service, which allows users to purchase domain names anonymously. The AnonymousSpeech domain purchase history shows that the day before, on August 17, 2008, someone purchased a Netcoin.org domain. Was it Nakamoto who at the last minute changed the name of his project to Bitcoin? After careful analysis, Or Weinberger confirmed that no content was associated with the Netcoin.org domain. This domain "was later bought back by another person." The decision to stay with Bitcoin may have been critical to BTC's success as many members of the cryptocurrency community now emphasize their aversion to the Netcoin name. This discovery sheds new light on the history of cryptocurrency. If it were true that Bitcoin was originally supposed to be called Netcoin, why did many of the self-proclaimed Nakamoto's never mention it? Isn't this potential evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto's real identity remains unknown? The Netcoin.org domain was later removed and re-registered with the Web.com subsidiary in 2010. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen continuing to trade inside the narrow zone located between the levels of $18,640 - $19,361 for all the weekend long. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $19,347 and $19,679 and only a sustained breakout above this levels would change the outlook to more bullish. The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart still supports the short-term bearish outlook towards the level of $17,600 again, but any breakout above the local trend line might be considered bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $19,226 WR2 - $18,987 WR1 - $18,829 Weekly Pivot - $18,742 WS1 - $18,587 WS2 - $18,500 WS3 - $18,259 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294177
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The Down Trend Is Strong In Charge Of Cable Market (GBP/USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 11:39
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had collapsed over 1000 pips over the weekend and a new swing low was made at the level of 1.0352, which is the lowest level since 1985. The market conditions are extremely oversold on the H4,Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frames, so there is a chance for a pull-back soon. Nevertheless, before the pull-back is made, the next target for bears is located at the parity level of 1.0000, so please keep an eye on this level. Local pull-back might test the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0890, but this resistance looks very weak. The next technical resistance is located at 1.1210 and 1.1410 and only a sustained breakout above this level would change the outlook to bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16907 WR2 - 1.11401 WR1 - 1.08850 Weekly Pivot - 1.05895 WS1 - 1.03344 WS2 - 1.00389 WS3 - 0.94883 Trading Outlook: The bears are still in charge of Cable market and the next target for them is the parity level. The level of 1.0351 has not been seen since 1985, so the down trend is strong, however, the market is extremely oversold on longer time frames already. On the other hand, in order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294175
The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair: The Strong And Dynamic Sell-off Continues

The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair: The Strong And Dynamic Sell-off Continues

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 11:29
Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair made another swing low as the strong and dynamic sell-off continues. The last swing low was made at the level of 0.9556, so the market is trading far away from the parity level. No nearest technical support in view as the market hits the multi-year lows, however, the resistance is seen at 0.9811. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 (swing high from August 11th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the down trend reversal is confirmed. Please watch the USDX as the correlation between this two markets (EUR/USD and USDX) is directly opposite. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 0.99372 WR2 - 0.97857 WR1 - 0.97189 Weekly Pivot - 0.96342 WS1 - 0.95674 WS2 - 0.94827 WS3 - 0.93312 Trading Outlook: The EUR is still under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue far below the parity level, towards the new multi-year lows. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of down room for the EUR to go as the bears keep making a new, multi-year lows.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294173
EUR/USD: What Stands Behind THAT HIGH Eurozone Inflation?

There Are Many Indications That The Euro-US Dollar Pair Is Moving Downwards

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 11:24
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The euro-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 0.9688 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 0.9503, the 208% Fibonacci retracement level (red dotted line). From this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 0.9646, the 14.6% retracement level (white dotted line). After testing this level, the price may continue to move up to test 0.97401, the 23.6% retracement level (white dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – down; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – down. General conclusion: Today the price may move downward from the level of 0.9688 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 0.9503, the 208% Fibonacci retracement level (red dotted line). From this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 0.9646, the 14.6% retracement level (white dotted line). After testing this level, the price may continue to move up to test 0.97401, the 23.6% retracement level (white dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 0.9688 (close of Friday's daily candle), the price may move downward with the target of 0.9609, the lower limit of the Bollinger band indicator (black dotted line). After testing this level, the price may roll back up.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322604
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 09:44
Several market entry signals were formed on Friday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1168 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. A breakthrough of 1.1215 and a fall to the 1.1168 area was not long in coming, as the pressure on risky assets increased to a maximum. A false breakout at 1.1168 resulted in a buy signal against the trend and a slight 40 point correction. The bears defended the resistance at 1.1139 in the afternoon, but they failed to get a convenient entry point for selling from there. A false breakout at 1.1025, after another collapse of the pound, gave several good buy signals, which again led to a correction by 50 points. And only after the bears brought the pair back to 1.1079, giving another good reason to sell, the pound fell by more than 200 points. When to go long on GBP/USD: The pair lost another 500 points in today's Asian session and all the reason for the statements made by the British Chancellor of the Exchequer that he plans to cut taxes and provide support to the population of the country. All this is just in time when the Bank of England is trying to fight the 10% inflation rate, which will turn into 13% in the near future. Obviously, such a divergence of rates does not support the British pound, but makes it weaker. Given that there is no reason to buy, I advise you to act very carefully and best of all on a decline. Only a false breakout in the area of 1.0501 will provide a buy signal in order to recover to the resistance of 1.0569. A breakthrough and a downward test of this range may pull speculators' stop-orders behind it, which creates a new buy signal with growth to a more distant level of 1.0633. The farthest target will be the area of 1.0699, where I recommend taking profits. Considering that only the speech of the Bank of England ILC member Silvana Tenreyro is scheduled for today, it is unlikely that anything will help the pound to recover like this. If the GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.0501, and most likely it will be so, the pair will be under pressure again, which will open up the prospect of updating the low of 1.0429. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.0360, or even lower - around 1.0310, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: The bears are in full control of the market and the new task is to settle below the level of 1.0500. Of course, the best sell scenario would be a false breakout from 1.0569. This level acts as a kind of upper limit of the short-term horizontal channel, in which the pound has stabilized after the largest Asian sell-off since its similar collapse, when it became known about the coronavirus pandemic in the world. If the pair is under pressure again, the bears' nearest target will be the area of 1.0501. A reverse test from the bottom to the top of this range will provide a good entry point for short positions with goal of a new major sell-off in the 1.0429 area. The farthest target will be a new annual low of 1.360, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.0569, the correction of the pound may lead to the area of 1.0633. Only a false breakout at this level will provide an entry point into short positions, counting on the pair's further downward movement. If traders are not active there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.0699, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: An increase in short positions and a decrease in long ones were recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for September 13. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak, from which it is not as easy to get out as it might seem. This week, in addition to the Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a meeting of the Bank of England committee, at which a decision will be made to raise interest rates, which will negatively affect the economy, which is gradually sliding into recession, as evidenced by the latest macroeconomic statistics. A recent speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey confirms the committee's aggressive intentions. On the one hand, an increase in interest rates should support the pound, but on the other hand, in the face of a sharp slowdown in economic growth and a crisis in living standards in the UK, such measures force them to get rid of the British pound, relying on the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. High U.S. rates are also attracting investors, increasing demand for the U.S. dollar. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 11,602 to 41,129, while short non-commercial positions rose by 6,052 to 109,215, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to the level of - 68,086 versus -50,423. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1504 against 1.1526. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a continuation of the bear market. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of growth, the average border of the indicator around 1.0803 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322612
Ethereum Market Is Showing Bullish Signals

Ethereum (ETH) Has A Chance For Potential Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:48
Technical outlook: Ethereum dropped through the $1,270 lows over the weekend before finding support again. The crypto might have bounced from the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its recent upswing between $1,220 and $1,328 respectively. The crypto is seen to be trading close to $1,295 at this point in writing and is expected to push higher towards $1,800 at least. Ethereum earlier found support around $1,220 which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $800 and $2,031. Furthermore, $1,220 is also the past resistance-turned-support zone as projected on the chart here. Also, note that an Engulfing Bullish candlestick was produced on the daily chart last week. All the above facts are hinting at a potential rally against $1,200. Initial resistance is seen through the $1,790-1,800 area and the bulls might be targeting the same levels. Only a break below $1,220 will be considered to be bearish as prices might drop towards $1,000 which is initial support as seen on the chart here. Trading plan: Potential rally towards $1,790-1,800 against $1,000 Good luck! Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294128
Can We Expect A Return After The USD/CHF Pair Increases?

Can We Expect A Return After The USD/CHF Pair Increases?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:44
The USD/CHF pair rallied in the short term and now it stands at 0.9848 right below the 0.9850 key resistance. After its strong growth, we cannot exclude a temporary retreat. The rate could come back down to test and retest the near-term support levels before jumping toward new highs. Technically, the bias is bullish as the Dollar Index is strongly bullish. The USD/CHF pair jumped higher after the US Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI reported better than expected data on Friday. Today, ECB President Lagarde Speaks, and the FOMC Member Collins and FOMC Member Mester's remarks could move the USD. USD/CHF Breakout Attempt! The USD/CHF pair edged higher after retesting the ascending pitchfork's warning line (wl1) and the 0.9755 former low (static support). Now, it has reached the 0.9850 former high which represents a static resistance. In the short term, it could come back to test and retest the former highs trying to accumulate more bullish energy. Only false breakouts through the 0.9850 could signal an extended sideways movement. USD/CHF Outlook! A valid breakout through 0.9850, jumping and closing above this level may activate further growth at least towards the 0.9886 historical level. This scenario brings potential long opportunities. A larger upwards movement could be activated by a valid breakout above 0.9886.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294126
Technical Information On The Euro To US Dollar Currency Pair

Technical Information On The Euro To US Dollar Currency Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:40
Technical outlook: EURUSD dropped through fresh swing lows at 0.9552 in the early trading hours on Monday. Prices were quick to bounce back quickly to the 0.9650-60 area thereafter as the daily chart looks to be carving a Doji or Pinbar candlestick pattern. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 0.9630 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to be back in control. EURUSD might have hit a major Fibonacci support level at 0.9652 during the Asian session. As projected on the chart here, it seems a potential target hit of a larger-degree downswing. Follow-through is required now to confirm a bullish reversal ahead. Immediate price resistance is now seen at about 1.0200 as seen here and a break there is needed to confirm that the bulls are back in control. EURUSD needs to stay above 0.9552 to relieve short-term selling pressure. The preferable strategy now is to stay aside for a while and wait for price confirmation of a potential bottom in place before committing on the long side again. A strong support zone is seen towards the 0.9500-50 area and the bulls are likely to come back in control soon. Trading plan: Preparing for a potential bottom and reversal from the 0.9500-0.9550 zone. Good luck!     Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294124
The Bank Of England's (BoE) Intention To Spend £65bn To Stabilize Financial Markets

The GBP/USD Currency Pair Has Fallen And Continues In A Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:36
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair fell by 800 points on Friday and Monday night and is already approaching price parity. In principle, we do not know what else can be said about this. Panic and chaos reign in the market. Everything that can only fall falls. Except, of course, the US dollar, which is still used by everyone as the most stable and safe defensive asset. Frankly, given what is happening now in the world and the complete uncertainty about when and how everything will end, we are no longer sure that the US dollar is really the currency that is absolutely not threatened by anything. However, most market participants believe that it is better to buy the dollar, and are happy to do so. I don't even feel like talking about business activity indices in the UK and the US, which came out on Friday, because they are definitely not the cause of the collapse that happened. We believe that such events occur due to geopolitical aggravation, and even the currency market itself shows us how serious things can be. I do not want to start talking about various platitudes about the Third World War, but the fact that the situation can worsen significantly before it finally improves is almost 100%. Naturally, not a single trading signal was formed on Friday, because the pound had already gone well below its 37 year lows. We can't even tell if the pound has ever been that low in principle? While this article was being written, the pound resumed its decline and fell by 100 points. The price simply flies from side to side, covering fantastic distances in short periods of time. Therefore, if you trade the pair now, then do so on higher timeframes using the Heiken Ashi indicator. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new decline, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 26. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair continues its downward trend on the hourly timeframe, which can already be called a collapse. How else to call a movement of 800 points in less than a day and a half? In the coming days, the pair can fly from side to side for mind-boggling distances, and the fundamentals and macroeconomics are unlikely to have any significance for the market. We highlight the following important levels on September 26: 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442, although the closest level is about 800 points away from the current price value. Senkou Span B (1.1543) and Kijun-sen (1.0909) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There will be several speeches by representatives of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in the UK and the US on Monday, which is very interesting in the current circumstances, but these events are unlikely to provoke a market reaction. Even if provoked, it is unlikely that anyone will notice it. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322602
The Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Confirmed The Bullish Attitude

The Price Of Gold Could Come Back Down After False Breakouts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:32
The price of gold dropped as much as 1,626 in the early morning when it found demand. Now, it is located at about 1,639 at the time of writing. After its massive drop, a rebound was natural. Fundamentally, XAU/USD extended its sell-off as the DXY rallied after better-than-expected US data was reported on Friday. The Flash Services PMI was reported at 49.2 points versus the 45.5 expected, while Fash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 points compared to the 51.0 points estimated. XAU/USD Retests 1,641 Resistance! XAU/USD accelerated its sell-off after dropping again below1,641. You knew from my previous analysis that a new lower low after retesting 1,654 - 1,659 activates more declines. It was almost to reach the weekly S1 (1,626) which was seen as a downside obstacle. Now, it has registered a strong rebound signaling exhausted sellers. In the short term, the rate could test and retest the near-term resistance levels before dropping deeper. XAU/USD Outlook! Testing and retesting 1,641, registering only false breakouts may signal a new sell-off. The price could come back down to 1,626 today's low. A larger rebound could be activated by a valid breakout above 1,641 and if jumps and closes above 1,646 today's high.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294120
No One Is Even Thinking About Buying The Euro, The Bearish Mood Is Present

No One Is Even Thinking About Buying The Euro, The Bearish Mood Is Present

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:28
EUR/USD 5M Business activity indices were published in the European Union and the United States on Friday... We tried to make the beginning of this article as absurd as possible, since now hardly anyone is interested in business activity indices. The euro lost about 150 points on Friday and on Monday night within one hour it fell by another 130 points. This is all you need to know now about what is happening in the foreign exchange market and the state of its participants. This is no longer a reaction to the "foundation" or any macroeconomic events. It's just shock and panic. The euro has already almost reached the level of 0.9500, although a few months ago this level looked fantastic. We have repeatedly said that the collapse of European currencies may well continue, given the current geopolitical and fundamental background. Basically, this is exactly what we are seeing now. Yes, a rollback to the top followed at night, but what does it decide? The market is clearly not just running in a panic from risks... In regards to Friday's trading signals, everything was very, very good, since none were formed. We say this because the market is in a state of shock right now, and trading in such circumstances is not the best thing to do from our perspective. Yes, a clear trend movement was observed all day long, on which one could make very good money, but why open positions if there is not a single level at the current price values? If you are trading our Linear Regression Channels system on the 4-hour time frame, then everything is fine, as there is a Heiken Ashi indicator that shows entries for new falls in the pair. It is very difficult to trade on hourly and lower timeframes due to the lack of reference points and signals. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial traders, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not provide any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 26. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The prospects for bears remain just fine on the hourly timeframe, given that now no one is even thinking about buying the euro. To say now that the euro's new collapse was provoked by last week's Federal Reserve meeting is like blaming a train derailment due to rain. From our point of view, the market is in a panic, and it is hardly possible to say how long it will persist and how it will end. We highlight the following levels for trading on Monday - 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0031) and Kijun-sen (0.9804). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak in the European Union on September 26, which is unlikely to affect anything. You should trade on a 4-hour or daily TF, who considers it necessary to do this in a panic on the foreign exchange market. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.     Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322600
The USD/JPY Pair Has No Support For The Development Of The Downward Movement

The USD/JPY Pair Has No Support For The Development Of The Downward Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:06
In the face of Friday's growth of the dollar index by 1.56%, the USD/JPY pair added 0.68% (100 points). We do not think that the Bank of Japan will stop protecting the 145 level after the first intervention on the 22nd, so we expect a slowdown in the fall of European currencies and a reversal in the USD/JPY pair to the nearest support at 141.25, determined by the embedded price channel line of the higher timeframe. The MACD indicator line approaches this line, strengthening it. The Marlin Oscillator on the daily chart is declining in its own narrow channel. The price lacks its support for the development of a downward movement. Such support will appear when the signal line of the oscillator goes into the negative area. The price went above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, above the balance line, and the Marlin Oscillator moved into the area of positive values. Formally, this is a continuation of short-term growth. Let's see how short-term this growth will be. After consolidating under the MACD line (143.55), we are waiting for a new wave of decline in the currency pair. Aim for 141.25.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322594
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.09.2022 08:05
How low can the exchange rate fall? Will the Bank of England take measures to support the pound? At the end of last week, bearish positions on the British pound sharply intensified. Traders seem to have tried to resist such a powerful downward movement until the last moment, but it did not work out. Events are developing in such a way that the pound in the future can not only update distant historical lows, but also risks setting a new anti-record. The BoE's decision on the rate and the announcement of the interim budget, to put it mildly, did not impress the markets. The central bank raised the rate by only 50 bps, accumulating a backlog from the Federal Reserve. The new economic plan failed to allay investors' concerns about the approaching recession in the country. The collapsed economic indicators were also another reason for short positions. The GfK consumer confidence indicator plunged to -49 from -41, updating the historical record. The last time such figures could be seen was in 1974. The CBI retail activity indicator fell to -20 in September from 37 in August. Preliminary PMI estimates could not act as a kind of reassurance for the market. The composite index fell to 48.4 from 49.6 due to the deterioration in the service sector, where the corresponding indicator fell to 49.2 from 50.9. At first, the GBP/USD pair fell to the area of 1.1020, which is the low since 1985. Then shorts intensified and the quote easily broke down the 1.0900 mark. Since the beginning of the year, GBP/USD has lost approximately 20%. Given inflation of 10%, nervousness should be not only among market players, but primarily among the government and the BoE. If officials do step up their efforts to maintain the pound, volatility in the foreign exchange market risks being prohibitive or getting out of control. What's Wrong with Government Measures? The pound was mostly brought down by new government measures. The authorities have announced significant tax cuts since 1972 in an attempt to push the country's economic growth to 2.5%. At least some, but actions and in theory, and even according to the government's plan, it was supposed to support the mood. However, investors have their own vision of the situation and they did not believe that the British authorities, led by Liz Truss, would be able to finance these measures without hindrance. Radical changes to the tax code imply a reduction in the basic income tax rate from 20p to 19p from April 2023. The highest income tax rate has been reduced from 45p to 40p, while the increase in national insurance contributions this year will be canceled in November. In addition, the planned increase in corporate tax has been postponed indefinitely. At the same time, Brits buying housing for the first time will be able to see a noticeable weakening of the state fee. The cost of all the announced tax cuts, according to the authorities, is 45 billion pounds. At the same time, the government's decision to limit electricity bills will cost much more, approximately 130 billion pounds. In general, this means that the British government will need to borrow more, increasing the supply of gold on the market. What will Happen to the Pound? The panic selling of the pound made many think about the future prospects of the British currency. What is it: a temporary turbidity and an excessively strong and completely unreasonable reaction of worried investors, or is the pound really on the path of a great crisis? Will there be parity with the dollar for the first time in history? Indeed, the pound is now under the strongest pressure, including due to the incessant advance of the dollar. The fall of the pound coincides with the time when there was a significant sell-off on world markets. Even in normal times, this creates obstacles for the national currency of Britain. Parity with the dollar is considered by analysts as an extreme measure, which is still far from reality. At the same time, new record lows are quite possible. It is unlikely that government measures will lead to a collapse of the pound or create problems when selling gold coins. "Given that the economy is flirting with recession, tax cuts supporting demand are not necessarily a bad idea. But this tax cut should be permanent, not temporary," Oxford Economics believes. The pound is expected to continue to decline to about 1.0500 against the dollar in the short term. Meanwhile, the BoE will have no choice but to raise the size of the rate hike. At the November meeting, the central bank should increase the rate by 75 bps. Thus, the markets will raise the forecast for the maximum bank rate from 3% to 4%.   Relevance up to 23:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322592
Chaos And Rising Volatility Are Present In Market Mood

Market Participants Fear A Recession, The Indices Of Leading European Companies Has Declined

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.09.2022 13:48
On Friday, key European stock indices declined more than 1%. The stock market has been in the red zone for the eighth consecutive session. Investors continue to analyze the Fed and other global regulators' hawkish monetary policy decisions. At the time of writing, the STOXX Europe 600 index of Europe's leading companies fell by 0.82% to 396.48 points. Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 was down 1.11%, the German DAX dropped by 1.33% and the British FTSE 100 lost 1.73%. Top gainers and losers The value of the securities of the German automobile concern Volkswagen AG fell by 2%. On the eve, the company's management said that it did not rule out the possibility of moving production from Germany and Eastern Europe amid growing gas shortages in the region. Quotes from Swiss bank Credit Suisse plummeted 7.8% on reports that the company may again turn to investors for new cash in order to radically overhaul its investment bank. The market capitalization of Norwegian metals company Norsk Hydro fell 1.3%. Even the statement of the company's management about the beginning of a securities buyback program totaling $192.2 million did not support quotations. The program is scheduled to start on September 26, 2022, it will last until September 20, 2023. Market sentiment On Friday, European investors continue to analyze the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting published the day before. Market participants are afraid of recession in the whole world as well as in Europe in particular after the hawkish decisions of the American regulator. On Wednesday, the US central bank raised its key rate range by 75 basis points to 3-3.25%, the highest since 2008. The Fed also lowered its forecasts for US gross domestic product and raised its estimates of inflation and unemployment for 2022-2023. Moreover, US Central Bank officials said they will continue to reduce their holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities and agency debt. The latest news from the US Federal Reserve gave investors an idea of the future prospects of the interest rate in the face of a permanently rising inflation rate. As a reminder, the US Federal Reserve already raised its key rate by 25 basis points in March 2022, by 50 in May and by 75 in June. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised the discount rate by 0.5 percentage points, the seventh consecutive increase in the rate. As part of its September meeting, the British regulator also adjusted its next steps in monetary policy to take into account the measures of the new government of Liz Truss to curb energy prices. Recall that at the August meeting, representatives of the Bank of England predicted that inflation in the country will peak at 13.3% by the end of 2022, after which the UK will plunge into recession and not come out of it until early 2024. On Thursday, the Swiss central bank announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike to 0.5% per year. The September rate hike was the second in a row: in June it was increased by 50 basis points - to minus 0.25% per annum. As a result of August, the inflation rate in Switzerland was at its highest point in the last thirty years - 3.5% per annum. Recall that earlier in September the European Central Bank raised the basic rate on loans to 1.25% per annum, the rate on deposits to 0.75%, and the rate on marginal loans to 1.5%. At the same time, the discount rate increased immediately by 0.75 percentage points for the first time in history. In addition, members of the Central Bank noted that the regulator intends to continue raising the rate in the upcoming meetings. Thus, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that further pace of interest rate hikes will depend on statistical data. Thus, global central bank decisions on monetary policy in September 2022 were among the most aggressive in a generation. An important factor of pressure on the European stock market on Friday was also weak EU and UK statistics. According to preliminary data from the American information media holding S&P Global, the composite PMI of the European Union in September fell to 48.2 points from 48.9 points in August. For the last three months, the Euro-region PMI has been balancing below the 50 level, which is the line between contraction and expansion. Meanwhile, the risk of recession in the euro-area economy has reached its highest level since July 2020. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index fell to 48.5 in the outgoing month from 49.6 points in August, and the services sector fell to 48.9 from 49.8 points. Germany's composite PMI in September slipped to 45.9 points from August's 46.9 points. In France, the indicator rose to 51.2 points from 50.4 points. According to GfK NOP, Ltd., the U.K. consumer confidence index fell 5 points to minus 49 points in the month, its lowest level in the history of calculations since 1974. However, Friday was not without positives. Thus, Spain's economic growth accelerated to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2022 from the previous 1.1%. Thus, the current macroeconomic outlook in Europe remains gloomy amid disruptions in energy supplies, a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as a permanent rise in energy and food prices. Previous trading results On Thursday, European stock indices closed in the red zone. The STOXX Europe 600 index of Europe's leading companies fell by 1.79% to 399.76 points. The French CAC 40 declined by 1.87%, the German DAX lost 1.84%, and the British FTSE 100 was down 1.08%. The value of securities of the Finnish energy giant Fortum Oyj soared by 7.9%. The quotations of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse Group AG sank by 5.5%. The day before, the British media wrote that the financial institution plans to split its investment banking into three businesses and sell profitable divisions to prevent the damage caused by capital gains. The market capitalization of French hotel chain Accor S.A. plummeted 6.9 percent after U.S. financial conglomerate J.P. Morgan downgraded the company's stock from "neutral" to "below market. The value of the shares of the largest British bank HSBC decreased by 1.3% on the news that the company will gradually exclude coal energy and steam coal mining from its list of assets. The share price of the largest British retailer of sportswear JD Sports fell by 6.3%. Earlier the company reported a decline in profits in January-June on the background of soaring inflation and lower consumer spending. An important pressure factor for the stock market in Europe on Thursday was weak results of the last trading session on the US stock market. Thus, on Wednesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average index collapsed by 1.7%, the S&P 500 also sank by 1.7% and the NASDAQ Composite by 1.8%. In addition, the key trading floors of Asia also showed a strong decline the day before.   Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322574
Does Ripple (XRP/USD) Move As Expected This Time?

Does Ripple (XRP/USD) Move As Expected This Time?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 14:23
Ripple extended its growth as expected in the short term. You knew from my previous analysis that XRP/USD signaled strong buyers and an upside continuation. Now, it is traded at 0.4868, far below 0.5582 today's high. The altcoin increased by 64.30% from Monday's low of 0.3398 to 0.5582 daily high. XRP/USD retreated which was natural after its amazing rally. It could test and retest the near-term support levels before jumping higher. XRP/USD Temporary Retreat? You knew from my previous analysis that XRP/USD could resume its upwards movement after coming back above 0.4098 and above the median line (ML). I've told you that a new higher high, a bullish closure above the R2 (0.4350) could activate more gains. Now, it has found resistance at the first warning line (WL1) of the ascending pitchfork. It has registered only a false breakout with great separation before crashing. XRP/USD Forecast! The sell-off could be only a temporary one. The upper median line (UML), R3 (0.4730), and 0.4639 represent downside obstacles. Testing and retesting these levels, registering only false breakdowns could signal new bullish momentum. This scenario could bring new long opportunities.   Relevance up to 14:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294017  
Forex: USD/JPY Is Expected To Reach 145 In The End Of The Year. Why Is That?

The Intervention Series Will Not Be Able To Change The Downward Trend Of The Japanese Currency

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 14:11
Yesterday was supposed to be black Thursday for the yen, but everything turned out differently. The currency intervention carried out by Japan broke off the Napoleonic plans of USD/JPY. But for how long? Chronicle of the rise of USD/JPY The dollar-yen pair was finally able to break through the key 145 mark on Thursday morning, which it has already unsuccessfully stormed twice this month. The springboard for the asset was the divergence in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. This week, the gap in US and Japanese interest rates has widened again. Recall that on Wednesday evening, the US central bank raised the indicator by 75 bps and hinted at more significant steps in the future. A few hours later, the Japanese central bank made a statement. As expected by the market, it announced the continuation of an ultra-soft policy and keeping rates at an extremely low level. The scenario assuming further growth of monetary divergence acted as a powerful impulse for the USD/JPY pair. In just a couple of hours, the dollar soared against the yen by more than 0.5%. The last jump of the greenback led the USD/JPY asset to another record. Since January, the greenback has strengthened against its Japanese counterpart by 25%. There has not been such an annual growth in the entire history of observations. However, the Japanese government did not put up with this and pulled the trigger. The currency intervention changed the whole picture overnight. Dramatic U-turn Japan's intervention cannot be called a "black swan". Many analysts prepared traders for this ahead of time and even named a specific moment when an intervention might occur. The 145 level really turned out to be the red line. As predicted, Japanese politicians did not allow the yen to fall below this mark. Japan's first market intervention since 1998, aimed at raising the rate of the JPY, stopped the rapid decline of the currency. Immediately after the intervention, the dollar-yen pair plummeted by more than 500 points, or 2.6%. Yesterday's low was the 140.35 mark. This morning, the Japanese yen is trading around 142 and is on track for its first weekly gain in more than a month. However, many analysts believe that it will not be easy for the Japanese currency to gain a foothold at current levels now, when the negative fundamental background prevails. To keep the JPY rate below 145, the Japanese government will most likely have to conduct more than one intervention. The risk that the authorities may intervene again is quite high. As the second largest foreign exchange reserve in the world, the BOJ has sufficient reserves to continue supporting the yen. At the end of August, Japan's reserves exceeded $1.17 trillion, while the average daily trading volume of the national currency in Tokyo was about $479 billion. According to economists, this reserve is large enough for the BOJ to strengthen the yen until the end of the Fed's policy tightening cycle, which should come by mid-2023. Put aside the panic Of course, the significant foreign exchange reserve that Japan can use to support the yen scares traders who are playing bullish in the USD/JPY pair. However, most analysts believe that there is no reason to panic. Even a series of interventions will not be able to change the downward trend in the Japanese currency. For the steady growth of the JPY, first of all, positive fundamental factors are needed, and there are none. The main obstacle on the yen's way up is the growing divergence in the monetary policy of the BOJ and the US central bank. The Japanese currency will remain under strong pressure until the BOJ retreats from its dovish position or the Fed begins to wind down the tightening of the monetary policy. The growing monetary divergence will eventually outweigh any intervention, Rabobank analysts are certain. Despite the risk of further interventions, they maintain their medium-term forecast for the USD/JPY pair at the level of 147. And many colleagues agree with them. According to analysts, purchases of the yen by the BOJ will be perceived by the dollar-yen asset as mosquito bites: it will be a bit of a shame, but it will pass quite quickly.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322513
The Forex Market Is Under Strong Pressure From Geopolitical Events And Statistics

The Forex Market Is Under Strong Pressure From Geopolitical Events And Statistics

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 12:47
Details of the economic calendar for September 22 The Bank of England, as expected, raised the rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%. At the same time, the regulator lowered its inflation forecast. According to their expectations, it may reach 11%, and inflation will peak in October. The market reaction was zero, because the rate increase by 50 bps has already been taken into account in the quotes. The pound sterling began to weaken. During the American trading session, weekly data on jobless claims in the United States were published, which recorded a decrease in their total volume. This is positive news for the US labor market. Statistics details: The volume of continuing claims for benefits fell from 1.401 million to 1.379 million. The volume of initial claims for benefits rose from 208,000 to 213,000. What is pushing the market? The first is the results of the September Fed meeting, where the regulator clearly indicated that the main goal is to curb inflation, and it is ready to further tighten monetary policy. The second factor is the Russia-Ukraine situation, where, at the moment, there is a large flow of information that puts speculators into action. Analysis of trading charts from September 22 The EURUSD currency pair, in the stage of a pullback from the low of the downward trend, locally returned to the previously passed level of 0.9900, where the price rebounded with a reverse move. The GBPUSD currency pair, after a short pullback, which was caused by a strong overheating of short positions, again moved to the decline. This movement indicates the prevailing downward sentiment among market participants who are in a stage of inertia. Economic calendar for September 23 Today, a preliminary estimate on business activity indices in Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States is expected to be published. Indices, except for the USA, are expected to decrease. Thus, the dollar may well receive support in the market. Time targeting: EU business activity indices – 08:00 UTC UK business activity indices – 08:30 UTC US business activity indices – 13:45 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 23 With the opening of European platforms, a new round of depreciation of the euro emerged, which led to the price holding below 0.9800. As a result, the speculative-inertial move continues to form, which allows the rate to decline to the subsequent control value of 0.9650, where the lower border of the flat 0.9650/1.0000 passed earlier in history. It should be noted that the market is already experiencing overheating of euro short positions, which allows for a new technical pullback. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 23 The pound sterling, following the euro, continued to decline, which resulted to the breakdown of the level of 1.1200. A stable hold of the price below this level allows the subsequent weakening of the British currency towards the psychological mark of 1.1000. Also, do not forget about the overheating of short positions and possible technical pullbacks. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.     Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322511
The GBP/USD Pair Gained Bullish Pace,  September PMI Indices And Continued Volatility In The Markets

Bitcoin Classified As A Risky Asset, The S&P 500 Having A Higher Earnings Forecast For Future

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 11:55
For a long time, bitcoin and US stock indices, hand in hand, walked along the same road. As a result, the 60-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the leader of the cryptocurrency sector reached 0.72, which is slightly lower than the May record. At the same time, the collapse of the stock market, provoked by the increase in the federal funds rate to 3.25% in September, causes less and less panic in the ranks of the BTCUSD bulls. The token managed to cling to the psychologically important level of 19,000. Has it really hit the bottom, or is the crypto winter far from over? The dynamics of bitcoin proves that investors have classified it as a risky asset, the value of which is affected by the Fed's monetary policy. In this respect, BTCUSD's 70% drop from November highs and 60% YTD can be easily explained by the Fed's changing mindset. If in 2021 it was confident in the temporary nature of high inflation and was in no hurry to get rid of monetary incentives, in 2022, everything turned upside down. Raising the federal funds rate from 0.25% to 3.25% and scaling up the quantitative tightening program to $95 billion a month pushed real Treasury yields to levels last seen in 2011. Such a surge in real rates could not but affect the positions of risky assets, which are now in the black. Dynamics of BTCUSD and S&P 500 With 85% of stocks in the S&P 500 having a higher earnings forecast for the next 12 months than before the pandemic, and 81% trading below their values from those days, it seems that the stock index has room to rise. However, it should be borne in mind that at the height COVID-19 pandemic, the profits of companies, especially technology companies, have increased significantly. Their fundamental estimates, on the contrary, fell due to the Fed's monetary restriction. In addition, the stock market does not fully take into account the high probability of a recession, which allows us to talk about the untapped potential for its collapse and is bad news for BTCUSD. Why, then, did bitcoin manage to clutch at a straw like a drowning man? Even with information that the federal funds rate could rise to 4.6% in 2023, in line with FOMC forecasts? In my opinion, it is due to the overflow of capital. Money is running out of stocks and bonds, resulting in higher yields for the latter. At the same time, the presence of the US dollar in the area of 20-year highs suggests that the currency is overvalued. Where else can the capital be directed? Why not in the crypto sector? Whose assets, on the contrary, look oversold against the background of grandiose collapses from the levels of November highs. Technically, on the daily chart of BTCUSD, the bulls do not give up hope of completing the formation of the Broadening Wedge reversal pattern. To do this, they need to raise bitcoin quotes above 22,800. Risky entries into longs are associated with the storm of resistance at 19,800 and 20,200, where the fair value and moving averages are located. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322505
The UK Assets Will Be Pressured| Japan And Its A Huge Foreign Debt

Yesterday's Decision Of The Bank Of England Did Not Help The Pound Rise

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 11:48
The British pound has already fallen below the 12th figure and is clearly not ready to stop there, as hard times are ahead with the continuation of the cost of living crisis in the UK, high inflation in the region of 10.0%, energy disruptions, and the economy sliding into recession - from which it will be quite difficult for the new prime minister to get out without another billion aid packages that are very expensive – given the current level of interest rates. Speaking of rates, yesterday the Bank of England voted to raise the base rate to 2.25% from 1.75%, as the central bank is striving with all the "fibers of its soul" to overcome high inflation exceeding five times the target. Yes, inflation in the UK fell slightly in August, but remained at 9.9% year-on-year, which is much higher than the BoE's 2% target. Energy and food prices have risen the most, but even core inflation, excluding these components, is still 6.3% year-on-year. By the way, this is the seventh consecutive time when the central bank raises rates, raising them to the level last seen in 2008. The press release explaining its decision points to the volatility of wholesale gas prices and the government's decision to impose restrictions on the payment of electricity bills, which, according to the central bank, will limit the further growth of the consumer price index. Nevertheless, the report says that since August there have been new signs of continued strengthening of domestic inflation, forcing the BoE to act ahead of the curve. "The labor market is limited, and internal costs and price pressures remain elevated. Although the electricity bill subsidy reduces inflation in the short term, it also means that household spending is likely to remain weaker than predicted in the August report," the report notes. BoE rate hike Five members of its Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 0.5 percentage point rate hike, and three voted for a 0.75 percentage point increase. One member voted for a 0.25 percentage point increase. Such a decision by the BoE could contribute to the pound's growth, but not in the current conditions, when the economy is leaping towards recession, the energy crisis is gaining momentum, and the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss is preparing another program of economic support. The Business Association of the British Chamber of Commerce, together with the BoE, expect that the UK will enter a recession before the end of the year. In addition to surges in energy prices, the country continues to face supply disruptions due to Covid-19 and Brexit, which reduces consumer sentiment and negatively affects retail sales. But the UK is not alone in raising interest rates. Most recently, the European Central Bank raised rates by 75 basis points, the Swiss central bank also raised rates by 75 basis points, as did the US Federal Reserve. GBP/USD As I noted above, the pound also collapsed to the 12th figure and the pressure on the pair is only maintained. Only after returning to 1.1270 will it be possible to expect bulls to become more active at the end of this week. This will create quite good chances for a larger upward correction, which will open a direct road to the area of highs: 1.1320 and 1.1360. The farthest target in the current bullish movement will be the 1.1400 area. If the pressure on the pair persists, bulls will have to try very hard to stay above 1.1215. Without doing this, you can see another major sale by 1.1160 and 1.1110. EUR/USD As for the technical picture of EURUSD, so far the bulls are resisting with all their might and do not want to surrender the market, but apparently this is inevitable. At the beginning of the European session, the euro has already returned to an annual low and clearly nothing good is expected in the near future. The bulls' task is to protect the support of 0.9810, but it is difficult to say how to do this amid weak statistics. A breakthrough of 0.9810 will push the euro lower at 0.9770, and a breakdown of this low will open up a real prospect for an exit at 0.9720 and 0.9660. It is quite difficult to talk about the prospects for the growth of risky assets in the current conditions. To begin with, the bulls need to return to 0.9860, which will allow them to reach 0.9900. It will be possible to talk about a return to parity only after a breakthrough of 0.9952 and 0.9996.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322501
The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

The Fed Can Tolerate Recessions, While Other Economies Need To Do Much More To Deal With Inflation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 11:43
Measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to curb inflation in the country could lead to a recession in the global economy. To combat inflation, the Fed slowly exited the blocks, underestimating the rise in prices, considering this a temporary factor. And now, it will have to do much more to achieve the same effect, which means that advanced and emerging economies also have to do much more to cope with inflation. Emerging markets from Ghana to Kenya bear the brunt of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's push to raise borrowing costs, causing global currencies to weaken and debt service costs to rise. The Fed's signal on Wednesday that it could tolerate a recession as a necessary trade-off to regain control of inflation means that the global economy could plunge into a deep recession. The biggest loss is the loss of trust. Whatever they do, they must restore trust. The only currency of central banks is trust. Rising US interest rates are effectively blocking frontier markets from capital markets, urging investors to consider fundamental factors rather than "hype."   Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322479
The Situation Around The World Force  Investors To Keep Precious Metals In Portfolios

Rising Economic Risks Are Helping Gold Find A Solid Low

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 11:38
The gold market is showing relative strength against the US dollar, which continues to trade near its highest level since 2002 In her latest research note, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said rising economic risks are helping gold find a solid low around $1,650, even as the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive monetary stance by lowering growth forecast. On Wednesday, after raising interest rates by another 75 basis points, US central bank economic forecasts showed that the federal funds rate will peak in 2023 at around 4.6%. But despite the rise in interest rates, the Fed lowered its growth forecast for the US economy, suggesting its growth by 0.2% this year. And, compared with the June forecasts by 1.2%. During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned consumers that as the central bank focuses on lowering inflation, economic trouble is not far off. Shiels noted that after Powell's press release, gold reached new weekly lows and then highs in just 45 minutes. According to her, this is "something that hasn't happened on FOMC day in a while." Moreover, Shiels added that bearish speculative positioning can now also work in gold's favor as there has been continuous strong selling throughout most of the summer. Gold has been so beaten up that it is becoming immune to excessive interest rate hikes by the Fed. Since gold prices are showing a strong rebound from two-year lows, the precious metal has enough momentum to rise by $50 in the near future. But for the full realization of the growth of gold prices, significant fundamental changes are needed.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322475
The GBP/USD Market And The Next Target For Them Is The Parity Level

Can Today's Statistics Help The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 10:09
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair There is little chance that pound will update its yearly low today because of the upcoming statistics for the UK. Yesterday's decision of the Bank of England also had a negative impact on the quotes since interest rates were raised by 0.75% and the central bank said that it will continue to act more aggressively in order to completely defeat inflation. A number of reports are due out today, such as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the service sector and composite index of the UK. The index for the services sector may show growth, but the rest will remain below 50 points, which will provoke a new wave of sell-offs in pound. Similar data from the US will also be released in the afternoon, and these indices may surprise traders. That is likely to lead to another rise in dollar, especially if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talks about further rate hikes and fight against inflation. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1252 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1289 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth is unlikely, but everything can change if traders fail to break through the yearly lows. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Pound can also be bought at 1.1227, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1252 and 1.1289. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1227 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1188. Pressure will return if the UK reports weak economic statistics. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1252, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1227 and 1.1188. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322489
Meta Platform Users Can Combine Wallets And Share NFT Tokens In 100 Countries| The Ethereum Market Has Been Seen Making Lower Highs

JPMorgan's CEO's Reluctance To Digital Assets, The Ethereum Market Is Still In The Short-term Down Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 09:50
Crypto Industry News: Jamie Dimon - CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. - he reiterated his unfavorable position towards the cryptocurrency market. This time, in his statement, he described bitcoin and the rest of the digital assets as "decentralized Ponzi schemes." Aside from JPMorgan's CEO's open aversion to digital assets, the international investment bank has been offering its clients some services related to this market for some time. The company has recently announced that it will continue to provide this type of service, despite the downturn on the market. JPMorgan's executives are known for their hostility to cryptocurrencies and especially for their criticism of bitcoin. Dimon spoke about the first cryptocurrency for years, describing it as "worthless". Additionally, he warned investors to stay away from BTC. In his last speech, the 66-year-old banker once again highlighted his negative stance by calling bitcoin and the entire digital asset market "decentralized Ponzi schemes." He argued that criminals use digital currencies to carry out illegal operations, including money laundering and sex trafficking. Despite many examples of attacks on the cryptocurrency industry, especially from the banking sector, the reality shows that it is a bit different. This is because many banks face accusations of involvement in mass money laundering. During this time, the blockchain technology on which the entire cryptocurrency sector is based is completely transparent, which gives everyone the ability to track the flow of funds. To this day, cash remains the most common form in which criminals carry out drug and other drug transactions. According to various studies, it is estimated that from 34% to 39% of all cash in circulation is involved in such activities. Interestingly, Jamie Dimon, despite his aversion to bitcoin, is not at all critical of blockchain technology and stablecoins. He believes that they can benefit the financial system if a number of comprehensive regulations are introduced. A few months ago, the CEO of JPMorgan once again spoke warmly about blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi). At the time, he said that these technologies were "real" and could be "implemented both publicly and privately, with or without consent." Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has extended the post-Merge sell-off as the new swing low was made at $1,219. The bulls are trying to bounce, so the corrective cycle is ahead of us. The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. Moreover, the bullish divergence between the price and momentum indicator is seen on the H4 time frame chart. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,460 WR2 - $1,386 WR1 - $1,346 Weekly Pivot - $1,312 WS1 - $1,272 WS2 - $1,238 WS3 - $1,164 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293960
What Potential Could Be In Bitcoin Movements If BTC/USD Has Been Rrading Sideways?

The Bank of Russia And An Agreement Enabling Cross-border Settlements In Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Continues Its Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 09:43
Crypto Industry News: The Russian Federation deputy finance minister Alexei Moiseev said that the draft law that has been prepared contains provisions on "how to obtain cryptocurrency, what can be done with it" and how to use it in cross-border settlements. We also learned that the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance of the country have reached an agreement enabling cross-border settlements in cryptocurrencies. According to Thursday's report by the Russian agency "Kommersant", Russia's deputy finance minister Moiseev said that his ministry had agreed with the central bank regulations that would allow citizens to send cross-border payments using cryptocurrencies. The proposed policy change is said to allow Russian citizens to access digital wallets. "[The Act] generally describes how to acquire cryptocurrency, what can be done with it and how it can (...) be used in cross-border settlements"-Moiseyev said. Russian news agencies also report that the central bank has long discussed the issue of cross-border payments with government officials. The Bank of Russia has reportedly opposed the legal operation of cryptocurrency exchanges and the acceptance of such assets as legal tender. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair had bounced from the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $19,347 and $19,679 and only a sustained breakout above this levels would change the outlook to more bullish. The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart still supports the short-term bearish outlook towards the level of $17,600 again, but any breakout above the local trend line might be considered bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $21,295 WR2 - $20,039 WR1 - $19,341 Weekly Pivot - $18,764 WS1 - $18,064 WS2 - $17,526 WS3 - $16,271 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293958
The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair: The Strong And Dynamic Sell-off Continues

The Correlation Between The EUR/USD and USDX Markets Is Directly Opposite

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 09:35
Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair made another lower low as the sell-off continues. At the time of writing the article the local low was made at the level of 0.9771, but the target for bears is seen at 127% Fibonacci extension located at 0.9744. No nearest technical support in view, however, the resistance is seen at 0.9901 and 0.9867. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 (swing high from August 11th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the longer term down trend is reversed. Please watch the USDX as the correlation between this two markets (EUR/USD and USDX) is directly opposite. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.01231 WR2 - 1.00595 WR1 - 1.00262 Weekly Pivot - 0.99959 WS1 - 0.99626 WS2 - 0.99323 WS3 - 0.98687 Trading Outlook: Despite the recent relief rally towards the short-term support, the EUR is still under the strong bearish pressure and as long as the USD is kept being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of room for the EUR to go down.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293952
The Euro (EUR) Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

The Pressure On The Euro Clearly Persisted After The Recent Events

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 09:26
Several cool market entry signals were formed yesterday, which made it possible to make good money. Let's look at a 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. I paid attention to the levels 0.9813 and 0.9861 in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market there. The bears attempt to continue the euro's decline in the morning had failed. The test and forming a false breakout in the area of 0.9813 led to a signal for long positions on the euro, which resulted in growth by more than 40 points in the 0.9861 area. A breakthrough and reverse test of this range from top to bottom resulted in creating another signal for entering long positions, which allowed us to pick up about 20 more points. The euro was under pressure in the afternoon after we received good statistics on the US labor market, and a breakthrough and a reverse test from the bottom up of 0.9847 gave a sell signal. As a result, the pair collapsed into the 0.9813 area. As in the morning, the bulls were more active there, which led to a false breakout, a buy signal and growth back to 0.9847. When to go long on EUR/USD: The pressure on the euro has clearly persisted after recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who promised that he would crush inflation by any means after the Open Market Committee raised interest rates by another 75 basis points. Yesterday's labor market data only reinforced the descriptions that the Fed will continue to act quite aggressively. As for statistics, today there are quite a large number of economic indicators on activity in the eurozone, which is expected to fuel the decline, which is a consequence of the European Central Bank's policy, following on the heels of the US central bank. If the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone, the index of business activity in the services sector and the composite index of business activity disappoint, do not be surprised if the euro goes to update annual lows. In such conditions, it is not necessary to count on the level of 0.9813. This area has already been tested twice and only another false breakout in the area of 0.9813 creates a new buy signal. The target of the upward correction in this case will be the level of 0.9853, formed by yesterday's results. Only a breakthrough and a top-down test of this range, together with strong statistics on the eurozone, will hit the bears' stop orders, creating another signal to open long positions with the possibility of a dash up to the 0.9898 area. A more distant target will be the resistance of 0.9952, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD falls further, which is more likely, and the bulls are not active at 0.9813, the pressure on the pair will increase, which will lead to the continuation of the bearish trend. The optimal solution for opening long positions in such conditions would be a false breakout near the 0.9770 low. I advise buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from 0.9723, or even lower – around 0.9684, counting on an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on EUR/USD: Bears control the market after yesterday's major sell-off from the 0.9900 level. Given that there are no special reasons to buy risky assets yet, I expect a further decline in the pair. The most optimal option for short positions in the current conditions will be after the pair grows in the first half of the day to the area of 0.9853 and a false breakout forming there. This will lead the euro to a repeated update of the annual low of 0.9813, the breakdown and consolidation below which, with a reverse test from the bottom up, will create another sell signal with the removal of bulls' stop orders and a larger fall of the pair to the area of 0.9770. A more distant target will be the 0.9723 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD jumps during the European session, as well as the absence of the bears at 0.9853, and there are moving averages playing on the bears' side, demand for the euro will return by analogy with yesterday, which will move the pair to the horizontal channel. However, nothing terrible will happen for them. An upward correction will lead to the next resistance of 0.9898. In this scenario, I recommend opening short positions only if a false breakout is formed. You can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the high of 0.9952, or even higher – from 0.9996, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT report) for September 13 logged a decline in short positions and a slight increase in long positions. This suggests that the European Central Bank meeting and a sharp increase in interest rates immediately by 0.75% influenced traders who preferred to take profits at current levels even despite the approaching Federal Reserve meeting. This week, the Open Market Committee is likely to raise rates by at least 0.75%, but there are rumors in the market that some politicians are in favor of raising the rate by 100 basis points, or 1.0%. This will lead to increased bearish momentum and the euro's new collapse against the US dollar. Considering the US inflation data for August of this year, the development of such a scenario cannot be ruled out. However, it should be understood that the European Central Bank is also no longer "sitting on the sidelines" and is starting to catch up with the Federal Reserve, reducing the gap between returns. This plays on the side of long-term bulls of the euro, who are counting on a recovery in demand for risky assets. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose by 2,501 to 207,778, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 22,011 to 219,615. At the end of the week, the overall non-commercial net position remained negative, but rose slightly to -11,832 from -36,349, which indicates the continuation of the alignment of the upward correction for the pair and groping the bottom. The weekly closing price increased and amounted to 0.9980 against 0.9917. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating an attempt by the bears to regain control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator in the area of 0.9875 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322477
The Bullish Trend Is Currently Very Strong For The EUR/USD Pair

What Options Should Traders Consider When It Comes To The EUR/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 09:17
Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Euro was unable to cling around 0.9900 so it quickly returned to yearly lows. The reason was the US jobless claims report yesterday, which reminded traders of why they bet on dollar in the current environment. For this, too high inflation is to blame as it forces the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively. A number of reports are due out today, such as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the service sector and composite index of Eurozone countries. All of them do not carry anything good, so it is likely that a new wave of sell-offs will be seen in euro, which will push it beyond yearly lows. Similar data from the US will be released in the afternoon, but there the indices may surprise traders. This could lead to another rise in dollar, especially if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talks about further rate hikes in his speech. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 0.9845 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9897. However, growth is unlikely especially if the Euro area reports weak economic statistics. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 0.9816, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9845 and 0.9897. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 0.9816 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9771. Pressure will return amid a bad data in the US and continued hawkish policy by the Fed. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can be sold at 0.9845, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9816 and 0.9771. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322487
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 08:29
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair managed to update its 37-year lows, adjust and resume the downward trend on Thursday. Now the current low is 1.1212 and hardly anyone could have expected the pound to fall so low. However, this is still far from the limit, as the current fundamental and geopolitical backgrounds allow the British currency to continue to depreciate against the dollar. Do recall that the Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.75% for the third consecutive time and, in fact, promised to raise it by 0.75% for the fourth time. The Bank of England raised the rate by 0.5%, which also corresponded to forecasts, but once again it did not help the pound in any way. Firstly, the divergence between the rates continues to increase. Secondly, the market continues to ignore all the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Thirdly, geopolitics puts pressure on all risky currencies, including the pound. Thus, his new fall is absolutely natural. As for trading signals, there were three of them yesterday. All three are bounces from the 1.1344-1.1354 area. All three are for short positions. At first glance, it may seem that everything is fine, but these signals should still be clearly beaten in order to make money on them. After the first two signals, the pair went down 30 and 40 points. Thirty points is too little for the signal to be considered correct, and during the second signal the BoE summed up the results of its meeting. Therefore, the second signal should definitely have been ignored, and the first one should have been recognized as false (the transaction on it closed at breakeven or at minimum profit, since the position should have been closed manually at least half an hour before the BoE meeting). The third sell signal, thus, could be worked out, and it brought traders a profit of at least 60 points. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 shorts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 23. The euro is plunging again, but not hopelessly. The Fed raised the rate by 0.75% and promised to raise it by another 1.25%. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 23. Even the Bank of England's rate hike did not help the British pound. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 23. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair resumed its downward trend on the hourly timeframe, which should not surprise anyone, since two meetings of central banks took place this week. At this time, the pair is located below the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so there is not a single signal to buy. We highlight the following important levels on September 23: 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1760, 1.1874. The Senkou Span B (1.1543) and Kijun-sen (1.1334) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels on the chart that can be used to take profits on positions. Business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors will be published in the UK and the US. However, we do not believe that the market will pay any attention to them after such two important events. Nevertheless, if the actual value of a particular report is very different from the forecast, a reaction may follow. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322459
The Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) Pair: The Strong And Dynamic Sell-off Continues

The Euro Keeps Falling And The Bearish Outlook Remains Very Good

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 08:22
EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD pair first plunged to the new 20-year low at 0.9813, therefore it adjusted slightly, and then returned to the level of 0.9813 for a reason or no reason at all. This time the pair did not overcome the level, but it should be understood that over the past day and a half, the euro has already fallen significantly. So we would say that everything is going according to plan. Recall that we have repeatedly stated that the current downward trend does not look complete, and the foundation and geopolitics do not provide a reason to expect the euro's growth. Moreover, there are no technical signals for growth. And the US central bank meeting, its results and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech... the market for once worked them out absolutely logically. Monetary policy in the US will continue to tighten, so the dollar's growth is quite logical. Thursday's trading signals were not all right, but you should remember that the pair has not been at the current price values for more than 20 years, so there are simply practically no levels to trade. All the signals of the past day were formed around the level of 0.9877, which itself was recently formed. The first buy signal turned out to be false, but it could be ignored, since at the time of its formation, the price had already gone up 90 points. The next three sell signals could be worked out, but only with one short position, since the price went down more than 15 points only in the third case so that traders could set a Stop Loss to breakeven. However, it was not necessary, and the position should have bee COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not give any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 23. The euro is plunging again, but not hopelessly. The Fed raised the rate by 0.75% and promised to raise it by another 1.25%. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 23. Even the Bank of England's rate hike did not help the British pound. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 23. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The bears' prospects remain very good on the hourly timeframe. Now it is already possible to sum up the results of the Fed meeting, and we see that the euro responded with a new fall, and the dollar – with growth. This trend, from our point of view, will continue in the future. Now the euro is (again) under pressure from geopolitics. We allocate the following levels for trading on Friday – 0.9813, 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, 1.0072, 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0031) and Kijun-sen (0.9930) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors will be published in the European Union and the United States on September 23. These data will clearly be in the shadow of the Fed meeting, but still a small reaction of the pair may follow them. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322457
Oh Wow! S&P 500 Went Up By 2.59%, Nasdaq Increased By 2.27%

Falls At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 08:16
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.35% to a 3-month low, the S&P 500 fell 0.84%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.37%. Merck & Company Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 2.98 points or 3.53% to close at 87.51. Quotes Johnson & Johnson rose by 2.90 points (1.78%), ending trading at 166.18. Salesforce Inc rose 2.52 points or 1.71% to close at 150.15. Shares of American Express Company were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 5.68 points (3.82%), ending the session at 143.03. Boeing Co was up 3.20% or 4.58 points to close at 138.71, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc was down 2.43% or 7.79 points to close at 312. .92. Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were Eli Lilly and Company, which rose 4.85% to 310.87, Merck & Company Inc, which gained 3.53% to close at 87.51. , as well as shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, which rose 2.63% to end the session at 71.29. The biggest losers were Caesars Entertainment Corporation, which shed 9.44% to close at 37.62. Shares of Ball Corporation lost 8.66% to end the session at 49.23. FactSet Research Systems Inc dropped 8.29% to 394.75. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Spero Therapeutics Inc, which rose 167.74% to hit 2.20, Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which gained 105.90% to close at 0.44, and also shares of Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 46.39% to end the session at 0.35. Top Ships Inc. was the biggest loser, shedding 44.06% to close at 0.12. Shares of Ecmoho Ltd lost 42.72% and ended the session at 0.10. Quotes of Pintec Technology Holdings Ltd decreased in price by 28.80% to 0.42. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2596) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (546), while quotes of 120 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,011 stocks fell, 765 rose, and 257 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.29% to 27.35. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.24%, or 4.00, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 0.54%, or 0.45, to $83.39 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 0.50%, or 0.45, to $90.28 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.04% to 0.98, while USD/JPY fell 1.14% to hit 142.40. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.65% to 111.07.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293918
The Euro-Dollar (EUR/USD) Has Pair A Potential For Further Growth?

A Slight Increase In The Euro To US Dollar Price Is Visible

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 08:10
Yesterday, the euro closed the day at the opening level. The closure occurred under the resistance of 0.9850 and formally this means consolidating under the level. But since there is practically no body of the candle, the consolidation itself is formless, weak. At the same time, convergence is also formed with the Marlin Oscillator. A slight increase in the price is visible this morning, with the intention to go above 0.9850. Consolidating above the level opens the way to 0.9950. It is possible to continue growth to the 1.0032 level. All this growth will occur in the general direction of the downward trend. Upon completion of the correction, a new wave of medium-term decline will begin to develop. In this case, the key level of 0.9752 that we noted will be overcome with more energy, the price will try to settle at 0.9692 and go below (0.9625). The strong growth of the Marlin Oscillator indicates the beginning of the correction on the four-hour chart. Consolidating above 0.9850, and with it the transition of Marlin to a positive area will create a technical basis for further growth to the target level of 0.9950. A little below the 1.0032 level is the MACD line. If the price rises, this line will turn up, press against the linear level, strengthen it and create tension by the end of the correction. It will also turn out that in the area of 1.0032, the MACD lines of both scales will coincide, which will also strengthen the resistance. A puncture of this level is possible to 1.0051, to the high of September 20, but this puncture will already be false. This is the main scenario. An alternative scenario allows the price to rise to the upper area of a prolonged and broad consolidation of August-September at 1.0150.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322469
Ripple (XRP) Moved Up But Bearish Scenario Has Not Been Cancelled Yet

The Ripple Rose, Will The XRP Price Trade Up?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 13:52
The price of Ripple was trading in the green at 0.4265 at the time of writing and it seems determined to approach and reach new highs. Technically, the price action signaled exhausted sellers and a potential upside movement. XRP/USD increased by 27.58% from Monday's low of 0.3398 to 0.4335 yesterday's low. Ripple is up by 5.30% in the last 24 hours and by 26.09% in the last 7 days. Still, a larger growth needs strong confirmation. XRP/USD Downside Is Over! As you can see on the H4 chart, the price came back above the ascending pitchfork's median line (ML) and above the 0.4098 static resistance signaling strong upside pressure. Personally, I've drawn the ascending pitchfork hoping that I'll catch a long opportunity. The price retested the lower median line (LML) validating the pitchfork. Stabilizing above these broken levels mays signal further growth. XRP/USD Forecast! Coming back to test and retest 0.4098 and the median line (ML), registering false breakdowns could announce a fresh bullish momentum from above these broken resistance levels. This scenario could bring long opportunities. Also, a bullish closure above the R2 (0.4350) could activate further growth towards the upper median line (UML).     Relevance up to 13:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293842
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

The Bank of England Is Widely Expected To Take Decisive Action

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 13:42
By the end of this week, the pound sterling drifted lower. It lost its early gains in anticipation of the Bank of England meeting. However, it may resume steady growth following the BoE's key rate decision. Today, the pound sterling reached a new 37-year low against the greenback amid geopolitical tensions that fueled demand for safe-haven assets, especially the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair has fallen to its lowest level since 1985, touching a critically low level of 1.1235. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.1226. Shortly after, it was fluctuating in the range of 1.1300 -1.1400. Analysts at Scotiabank believe that the GBP/USD pair could extend more losses in the medium term. Now, the pound sterling is weakening due to risk aversion. Traders are flocking back to safe-haven assets, especially the US dollar. Besides, the greenback is rising across the board. The pound sterling will eventually recover yet its growth will be unsteady. Investors are now anticipating the upcoming meeting of the BoE, scheduled for September 22. According to Reuters, a chance of a 75 basis point rate hike totals 75%. Analysts reckon that this is the most appropriate size of the rate hike. The Bank of England is widely expected to take decisive action against inflation. Some analysts assume that the regulator may raise the interest rate by another 125 basis points at the next two meetings before the end of 2022. Currently, it stocks to a dovish stance. The watchdog is reframing from switching to aggressive tightening. For this reason, some economists criticize the regulator for a slower response to inflation and monetary policy adjustments. According to FX strategists at Barclays Bank, it is pushing the pound sterling down. To facilitate its growth, the central bank should raise the benchmark rate more aggressively. This move may help revive demand for the British currency. If the BoE hikes the cash rate by 100 basis points instead of an expected 75 basis point increase, the pound sterling will rise sharply, analysts at Barclays stated. Market participants are also concerned about the possibility of a recession following the release of the UK's fresh macro stats. Retail sales contracted by 1.6% in August compared to a 0.4% increase in July. On an annual basis, this indicator sank by 5.4%, logging the worst performance since 2008. At the same time, in August, the budget deficit stood at £11.8 billion ($ 13.38 billion) amid the rising cost of servicing government debt. According to the Office for National Statistical (ONS), since April 2022, British public borrowing has amounted to £58.2 billion, a decrease of £21.4 billion compared to 2021. Earlier, the BoE repeatedly warned about the high risks of a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022. According to experts, it may begin to subside no earlier than 2024. At the same time, some analysts revised upward their outlooks for inflation in the UK amid the adoption of the Energy Price Guarantee. In August, the Bank of England predicted that inflation would peak at more than 13% in October. Yet, the reading, on the contrary, declined. Therefore, analysts recommend holding short positions on the GBP/USD pair with the target level of 1.1250.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322377
Price Of Gold Is Now Bouncing Higher But Trend Remains Controlled By Bears

The Geopolitical Conflict In Ukraine Briefly Pushed The Gold Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 13:37
Gold is going to win favor with investors as a safe haven asset after Russia's President Putin delivered a televised address to order a partial mobilization of reservists to bolster forces in Ukraine. The Russian leader warned the West he was prepared to use all available means to protect the Russian territory and respond to all threats to its territorial integrity. Putin's remarks were viewed as an escalatory address and another "nuclear blackmail". The deeply unpopular Kremlin's move enabled the US dollar to conquer a new 10-year peak. The US dollar index skyrocketed above 111 points shortly after the announcement. Nevertheless, gold managed to show resilience despite a new spike in the US dollar. Some analysts speculate that gold might have surged as high as $1,700 per troy ounce following the Fed's policy decision depending on the Fed's hawkish magnitude. In practice, the gold rally didn't happen. Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank Ole Hansen said that the recent price moves prove gold stayed afloat because of high demand for safe-haven assets, even though gold prices dropped to the lowest levels in two years, testing critical long-term support. By and large, gold has outpaced other assets amid global risk aversion that has been setting the tone for the overall market sentiment. Remarkably, gold has not collapsed to historic lows despite the stunning rally of the US dollar and massive sell-offs of stocks and government bonds. The geopolitical conflict in Ukraine briefly pushed the gold price to $2,000 per ounce. Nevertheless, later on, the geopolitical threat disappeared from investors' scope of interest. Indeed, investors have shifted focus toward inflation dynamics and rate hikes by major central banks. Hedge funds have been keeping short positions on gold for five weeks in a row. Ole Hansen admitted that gold has been bruised by ongoing headwinds on the back of the cycle of rate hikes. He also added that besides the demand for safety, investors view gold as a shield against errors in monetary policies. Influential central banks have not been able to contain inflationary pressure worldwide so far.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322385
The EUR/USD and The GBP/USD Markets Were Bearish Yesterday, Will It Be The Same Today?

The EUR/USD and The GBP/USD Markets Were Bearish Yesterday, Will It Be The Same Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 13:30
EUR/USD Higher timeframes Bears were able to exit the 1.0000 area of attraction yesterday, update the low at 0.9864, and hold on to a close below this level. The continuation of the downward trend returns relevance to the following downward targets – 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.8225 (minimum extremum of 2000). The nearest resistance is now the zone of 1.0000 – 1.0089, left behind yesterday and strengthened by many levels of the higher timeframes (psychological level + daily cross + weekly short-term trend). H4 – H1 The main advantage in the lower timeframes now belongs to the bears. However, at the moment, we are witnessing an attempt to implement a corrective rise. The pair retests the broken target at H4 (0.9864–97) and interacts with the central pivot point of the day (0.9875). The next most crucial resistance will be the weekly long-term trend (0.9966). This level is responsible for the current balance of power of the lower timeframes. The resistance of the classic pivot points R2 (1.0038) and R3 (1.0100) serve as further upward targets in the current situation. If the corrective recovery is completed, the bearish sentiment will return with targets at 0.9774 – 0.9712 – 0.9611 (classic pivot points). *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes The initiative yesterday belonged to the bears, who continued the development of the downward trend movement. The breakdown of the historical low 1.1411 (2020) at higher timeframes will allow us to consider the psychological level of 1.0000 as the next target for the decline. If the bears fail to confirm the breakdown on the weekly and monthly timeframes, then attention will be directed to the return to the passed minimum extremum 1.1411 and the subsequent development of a corrective rise. H4 – H1 As of writing, a corrective rise develops in the lower timeframes. Overcoming the key resistance at 1.1389 (weekly long-term trend) and a reversal of the moving average will change the current balance of power in favor of strengthening bullish sentiment. The resistance of the classic pivot points R2 (1.1443) and R3 (1.1503) can become additional targets within the day. If bears return to the market, the relevance will return to the support of classic pivot points (1.1207 – 1.1147 – 1.1059 ). *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1- Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322411
The Fed Plans To Address The Regulation Of Unattended Wallets

The Fed Will Do Whatever It Takes To Regain Control Of Inflation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 12:49
Fed officials have given the clearest signal that they are willing to tolerate a recession in order to regain control of inflation. It seems that they are finally taking active steps to catch up after being criticized for being too late in realizing the magnitude of the inflation problem in the US. On Wednesday, the central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points and announced a potential 1.25% increase before the end of the year. This is more hawkish than economists expected. Growth forecasts were also cut, while unemployment forecasts were lifted. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly spoke of the painful slowdown needed to contain price pressures at their highest levels since the 1980s. Gold reacted brightly to this news. Powell told reporters that soft landings are likely to decrease to the point where policies need to be tighter or more restrictive for a longer period. This assessment contrasts sharply with six months ago, when Fed officials first started raising rates from near zero and pointed to the strength of the economy as a positive. Now, officials are implicitly acknowledging through their pessimistic unemployment forecasts that demand will need to be cut at all levels of the economy as inflation has proven resilient and widespread. The median forecast among the 19 Fed officials is that unemployment will hit 4.4% next year and remain at that level through 2024. But this new level may still be too low as interest rates are likely to hit 4.4% this year and 4.6% in 2023, before falling to 3.9% in 2024.   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322407
The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 12:41
Japan intervened in the forex market for the first time since 1998 as the yen's losses intensified amid a divergence in the country's monetary policy with the United States. Yen hit 142.48 per dollar after falling above 145 per dollar because the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates following the Federal Reserve's decision the day before to raise its key rate by 75 basis points. Japanese authorities have stepped up verbal warnings in recent weeks, stressing that the government is ready to take action at any time and may carry out covert intervention. This is very surprising as the country has long been criticized for tolerating or even encouraging a weak currency on behalf of its exporters. The last time Japan strengthened yen through direct intervention was during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, when the exchange rate hit 146 and threatened the fragile economy. It has also previously intervened around 130 to weaken the currency in 2011. This year, yen has fallen about 20% against dollar, making it the worst performer among the G-10 currencies. But Japanese businesses and households are becoming increasingly vocal about the negative impact of the weaker yen as commodity and energy costs rise. Further declines will most likely put pressure on the consensus between a central bank determined to spur inflation and a government desperate to avoid a cost-of-living crisis. Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322405
The US Dollar To Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Pair Seems Ready For Further Growth

How The USD/CHF Pair Move After The Fed And SNB Decision

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 12:31
The USD/CHF pair rallied right after the SNB Policy Rate publication. In the short term, the currency pair continued to move sideways after the FOMC, even though the FED increased the Federal Funds Rate from 2.50% to 3.25%. Now, the USD/CHF pair exploded after the Swiss National Bank increased the SNB Policy Rate from -0.25% to 0.50% as expected. Later, the BOE could bring more volatility into the markets. The Official Bank Rate is expected to be increased from 1.75% to 2.25%. Furthermore, the US Unemployment Claims are expected at 220K last week, while the Current Account and CB Leading Index could come in better compared to the previous reporting period. USD/CHF Bullish Momentum! From the technical point of view, USD/CHF registered a false breakdown with great separation below 0.9627, signaling strong upside pressure. As you can see on the H1 chart, the price registered an aggressive breakout above 0.9695 static resistance. It has found resistance above the weekly R2 (0.9780) which represented an upside obstacle. Now, it has slipped below this key level and under the warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork. These are seen as resistance levels. USD/CHF Outlook! Coming back and stabilizing above the warning line (wl1) and above the R2 (0.9780) could signal an upside continuation. Personally, I want to see a strong consolidation above the R2 before going long. A new higher high could bring long opportunities.         Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293824
Ethereum Is Seen To Be Working On Its Recent Bearish

Ethereum Is Still In The Short-term Down Trend, The Draft Law About Stablecoins

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 12:01
Crypto Industry News: A bill on algorithmic stablecoins has appeared in the US House of Representatives. If it is passed, it could in practice lead to a ban on this type of cryptocurrency. The law criminalizes the creation or issuance of new "endogenously secured stablecoins". So, in practice, it is about creating algorithmic stablecoins. However, officials want to give their creators a chance. If the new law comes into force, they will have two years to change the security models of their coins. The definition in the draft law states that these are stablecoins, the price of which depends on the value of another digital asset, which is backed by the same creator, and which were created to maintain the price of that stablecoin. It is not known how officials will approach, for example, synthetix USD (SUSD). The project is now protected by a native asset of the same protocol. Other unclear stablecoins include BitUSD, which is backed by bitshares (BTS). In terms of competences, the bill authorizes the US Treasury Department to carry out analyzes on stablecoins. This one would cooperate with the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Currency Controller. It turns out that the future of the algorithmic stablecoin market may be decided by a vote that is to take place next week. According to the media, the draft act was developed by Democrat Congresswoman Maxine Waters and her Republican colleague Patrick McHenry. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has extended the post-Merge sell-off below the key technical support located at $1,281 as the new swing low was made at $1,219. The levels of $1,358, $1,407 and $1,424 will now act as the technical resistance for bulls as the market is trying to extend the bounce from the extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart. Moreover, the bullish divergence between the price and momentum indicator is seen on the H4 time frame chart, so the bounce might be triggered any time soon. Nevertheless, the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,100, $1,000 and $990. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, the momentum remains weak and negative, which might indicate the ETH is still in the short-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,460 WR2 - $1,386 WR1 - $1,346 Weekly Pivot - $1,312 WS1 - $1,272 WS2 - $1,238 WS3 - $1,164 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls is seen at $1,281.9. If the down move will extend, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293818
New Light On The History Of Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's Downward Trend Without The Possibility Of Indicating The End

Bitcoin's Downtrend With No Signs Of Possible Ending Or Reversal

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 11:55
Crypto Industry News: Unsurprisingly, the Fed raised rates by 0.75% again, reassuring those who feared a 1% rate hike, but not preventing a bearish reaction to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The largest digital asset in the market by capitalization indeed fell to its lowest level in more than three months after the Fed decision, reaching a low of around $ 18,200. Let us remember that the Fed's rate hike was accompanied by hawkish details, especially with regard to the FOMC members' rate forecasts outlined in the dot plot. The forecasts suggest that the Fed will raise rates by another 1.25% by the end of the year. Considering that 2 more meetings will be held by the end of 2022, rate hikes by 0.75% and then 0.50% are the most likely scenario. In addition, Jerome Powell maintained a largely hawkish tone in his press conference, leaving no doubt that the Fed will continue to fight inflation until it is brought under control. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a new marginal swing low at the level of $18,142 after the FED decided to deliver the interest rate hike to the level of 3.25%. Currently the market is trying to bounce from the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart, so the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $19,347 and $19,679. The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart still supports the short-term bearish outlook towards the level of $17,600 again, but any breakout above the descending trend line will be considered bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $21,295 WR2 - $20,039 WR1 - $19,341 Weekly Pivot - $18,764 WS1 - $18,064 WS2 - $17,526 WS3 - $16,271 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293816
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

The GBP/USD Pair Found Support And The EUR/USD Pair Is Slowly Recovering

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 11:33
Once again, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75% and announced a similar one for the next meeting. Markets were a bit disappointed with this as they were counting on the easing of rate hikes amid a slowdown or deceleration of inflation. Aside from the rate increase, forecasts for median interest rates, personal consumption spending, GDP and unemployment were also released. A larger rise in rates is hinted, while consumption and GDP estimates have been lowered. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, has been lifted. Interestingly, with such forecasts, the Fed believes that the economy will be able to avoid falling into recession as GDP is likely to stay in positive territory. They said it will hit 0.0% to 0.2% at the end of this year. This tough stance resulted with sell-offs in stock markets, growth in treasury yields and strengthening of dollar. Most probably, this dynamics will continue and may even intensify even if the central banks of Switzerland and the UK also raise rates by 0.75%. Forecasts for today: GBP/USD The pair found support at 1.1220 and may correct upwards to 1.1300 amid the decision of the Bank of England to raise the discount rate by 0.75%. But then it will turn down and rush to 1.1115. EUR/USD The pair is weakly recovering on the wave of partial profit-taking after its fall the day before. It could rise to 0.9880, then resume falling towards 0.9780.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322367
The Unchanging Situation Of Bitcoin And Yesterday's The Fed Decision

The Unchanging Situation Of Bitcoin And Yesterday's The Fed Decision

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 11:17
In the last few days before the Fed meeting, Bitcoin lost about 7% of its capitalization. Cryptocurrency quotes reached the dangerous level of $19k, but the bears did not have enough strength to break through it. The outcome of the Fed meeting helped the sellers increase pressure and bring the price of BTC to $18.8k. Results of the Fed meeting Fed members voted unequivocally to raise the key rate by 75 basis points. As of September 22, the key rate is at the level of 3.25%. At the same time, the Fed is actively withdrawing liquidity from the markets, but it is not possible to curb inflation. And here it is worth paying tribute to BBG analysts, who stated that the market lays a high probability of a rate at the level of 4.5% by the end of 2022. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed these intentions. The agency plans to bring the figure to 4.5% by the end of 2022. This means that the Fed has underestimated the scale of inflation and maintains an aggressive monetary policy. That is why a statement was made about the need to maintain the current policy in 2023. According to the results of the meeting, key rate easing is not planned until the end of 2023. Long term forecasts Considering that the bullish movement of Bitcoin is completely dependent on the policy of the Fed and the movement of the DXY index, this is extremely negative news for the cryptocurrency market. The Fed has signed up for the ineffectiveness of its fight against inflation, and you can forget about the promises to start easing monetary policy in the second half of 2022. Fed Watch believes futures markets have an 89% chance of raising the key rate by 75 bps in November. Given the Fed's theses, this should be the last increase in 2022 in increments of 0.75%. The situation remains negative, and the liquidity crisis will continue to worsen over time. Given this, with a high degree of probability, a significant increase in BTC/USD in 2022 should not be expected. Correlation of Bitcoin and stock indices Analyzing the movement of the price of Bitcoin and actively trading this instrument, it is necessary to pay attention to stock indices. The preservation of the current state of the market, at least until the end of 2022, indicates the continued correlation of cryptocurrency with stock indices. The S&P 500 formed a large bearish candle at the end of yesterday's trading day and started trading inside the support zone. Considering that the price of Bitcoin remained practically unchanged at the end of the trading day, we should expect a similar movement of the cryptocurrency after the opening of the American markets. Bitcoin: Technical analysis As of writing, Bitcoin has broken through the $19k support zone and is trading near $18.8k. It is noteworthy that the price drop was provoked by the bulls' attempt to reach the $20k level. However, the lack of sufficient volumes provoked a price reversal and a breakdown of the $19k support zone. On the daily chart, technical metrics point to buying activity in the $18.8k–$19.1k area. The RSI index and the stochastic oscillator resumed their upward movement in parallel, however, on the chart, we still do not see the bullish momentum working off. Given the fundamental background, there is a high probability that we will not see it. Despite the fierce resistance of the bulls, sellers manage to push the price lower and lower. Gradually, the range of price movement decreases towards the local bottom, which hints at its imminent retest. Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has tested the final support level of $18.1k twice. The bulls repelled the attack on $18.1k, but there is every reason to believe that after the Fed meeting, the boundary will be broken, and the price will update the market bottom. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322399
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

Will The GBP/USD Pair Move According To The Scenario?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 10:24
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 1.1266 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1102, the lower border of the Bollinger band indicator channel (black dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1235, the lower fractal (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – down; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – down. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.1266 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1102, the lower border of the Bollinger band indicator channel (black dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1235, the lower fractal (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1266 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward with the target of 1.1197, the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322381
No One Is Even Thinking About Buying The Euro, The Bearish Mood Is Present

The Price Of The Euro To US Dollar Pair May Move Downward

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 10:14
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The euro-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 0.9836 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to test 0.9802, the 208% Fibonacci retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward movement is possible to 0.9869, the 14.6% retracement level (white dotted line). From this level, the price may continue to move up. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – down; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – down. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 0.9836 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to test 0.9802, the 208% Fibonacci retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward movement is possible to 0.9869, the 14.6% retracement level (white dotted line). From this level, the price may continue to move up. Alternative scenario: from the level of 0.9836 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward to test the historical support level of 0.9709 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward movement is possible to the lower fractal 0.9813 (white dotted line). From this level, the price may continue to move up.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322371
The Bullish Trend Is Currently Very Strong For The EUR/USD Pair

Bears Control The EUR/USD Market After Yesterday's Meeting

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 09:05
Several fairly good market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the levels 0.9947 and 0.9902 in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market. A breakthrough and reverse test from below 0.9947 resulted in an excellent sell signal for the euro, which resulted in a drop of more than 40 points to the 0.9902 area. Euro bulls began to act more aggressively in that area, and speculative bears rushed to take profits ahead of an important Federal Reserve meeting, which led to a false breakout and a signal to buy the euro with a bounce up more than 30 points. Everyone was waiting for the Fed's meeting in the afternoon, at which there was a sharp fall in the euro at first, which led to a false breakout in the 0.9819 area and a buy signal. As a result, the upward movement amounted to about 70 points. The bears quickly became active during Powell's speech, and protecting the 0.9907 resistance provided a great sell signal, resulting in a 50 point decline. When to go long on EUR/USD: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell vowed yesterday that he would crush inflation by any means necessary after the Open Market Committee raised interest rates by another 75 basis points for the third consecutive time and signaled an even more aggressive policy than investors had expected. All this led to a surge in volatility and ultimately put serious pressure on the euro, which collapsed to another annual low in the 0.9813 area. Protecting this range will be the top priority for now, but it will be quite difficult to do this, as it is unlikely that the data on the eurozone consumer confidence indicator and the economic bulletin from the European Central Bank will be able to oppose the current policy of the Fed. Forming a false breakout at 0.9813 will provide an entry point to the market with the goal of an upward correction to the area of 0.9861 – the level formed on the basis of yesterday. It is possible that hawkish statements from ECB Executive Board member Isabelle Schnabel may help the euro in the morning, but only a breakthrough and test from top to bottom of 0.9861 will hit the bears' stops, which will create another signal to open long positions with the possibility of a dash up into the 0.9907 area, where the moving averages are, playing on the bears' side. A more distant target will be resistance at 0.9952, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD falls further, which is more likely, and the bulls are not active at 0.9813, the pressure on the pair will increase, which will lead to a continuation of the bearish trend. The optimal decision to open long positions in such conditions would be a false breakout near the low of 0.9770. I advise you to buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound only from 0.9723, or even lower - in the area of 0.9684, counting on an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on EUR/USD: The bears are in control of the market after yesterday's meeting and will continue to pull down the euro, as there are no real reasons to buy risky assets yet. The risk of a further energy crisis in Europe and an increase in interest rates by the EXB - all this will continue to negatively affect the economy, pushing the euro to the downside. The best option for selling in the current conditions would be the pair's growth in the first half of the day and forming a false breakout in the area of 0.9861, which will lead the euro to re-update the annual low of 0.9813. A breakdown and consolidation below this range with a reverse test from the bottom up creates another sell signal with the removal of bulls' stop orders and a larger fall of the pair to the 0.9770 area. A more distant target will be the area of 0.9723, where I recommend taking profits. If EUR/USD jumps during the European session, as well as the absence of bears at 0.9861, the demand for the euro will return, but nothing terrible will happen to the bears. An upward correction will lead to the next resistance at 0.9907. In this scenario, I recommend opening short positions only if a false breakout is formed. You can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from a high like 0.9952, or even higher - from 0.9996, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT report) for September 13 logged a decline in short positions and a slight increase in long positions. This suggests that the European Central Bank meeting and a sharp increase in interest rates immediately by 0.75% influenced traders who preferred to take profits at current levels even despite the approaching Federal Reserve meeting. This week, the Open Market Committee is likely to raise rates by at least 0.75%, but there are rumors in the market that some politicians are in favor of raising the rate by 100 basis points, or 1.0%. This will lead to increased bearish momentum and the euro's new collapse against the US dollar. Considering the US inflation data for August of this year, the development of such a scenario cannot be ruled out. However, it should be understood that the European Central Bank is also no longer "sitting on the sidelines" and is starting to catch up with the Federal Reserve, reducing the gap between returns. This plays on the side of long-term bulls of the euro, who are counting on a recovery in demand for risky assets. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose by 2,501 to 207,778, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 22,011 to 219,615. At the end of the week, the overall non-commercial net position remained negative, but rose slightly to -11,832 from -36,349, which indicates the continuation of the alignment of the upward correction for the pair and groping the bottom. The weekly closing price increased and amounted to 0.9980 against 0.9917. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating an attempt by the bears to regain control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator in the area of 0.9950 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322359
The Euro To US Dollar Pari (EUR/USD) Is Ready To Continue Its Decline

Technical Outlook Of The EUR/USD Pair After The Fed Meeting

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 08:36
Technical outlook: EURUSD dropped through the 0.9806 lows early hours of trade on Thursday. The recent sell-off can be accredited to the overall euro's weakness amidst the Fed interest rate hike by 0.75 bps on Wednesday.Technically, a long-awaited pullback rally should materialize any moment, pushing the process through 1.0800 at least. EURUSD has registered just a shallow low at 0.9806 delaying a pullback rally towards the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire drop between 1.2350 and 0.9800. It is still seen passing close to 1.00750 and 1.0800 as seen on the daily chart presented here. Immediate resistance is now seen at around 1.0200 and a push higher is required to confirm that the bottom is in place. We do not intend to speculate on whether a low is in place at 0.9806 but would certainly wish to bring to notice a strong bullish divergence on the daily RSI. With each swing low from 0.9950, the RSI has been printing higher lows as marked on the chart. A high probability remains for a bottom formation soon as the bulls prepare to be back in control. Trading idea: Get ready for a bullish reversal soon. Good luck!     Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293744
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The GBP/USD Currency Pair Resumed Its Downward Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 08:32
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair also resumed its downward movement on Wednesday and confidently broke through its 37-year lows, updating them. As in the case of the euro, the news about the mobilization in Russia turned out to be decisive, which automatically means a future new round of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Naturally, the risky currencies, which include the euro and the pound, immediately fell, without even waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. Now the pound may fall due to geopolitics, as well as due to the two meetings of the central banks and the decisions that will be made at them. If a few weeks ago we were already ready for the downward trend to end, now we would say that the pound can fall as low as you like. We are not considering the results of the Fed meeting now, as it is necessary that the market fully work them out and take them into account. As we have already said, it is not the results themselves that are important for traders, but how the market reacts to them, how it interprets them. There were only two trading signals on Wednesday. First, the pair overcame the level of 1.1354, and then rebounded from it from below. At that time there was not a single target below the level of 1.1354, so in any case, short positions should be expected to be closed manually. The first position could be closed by Stop Loss at breakeven, the second – at a profit of about 30 points. The result is not bad, since the price was in an open flat during most of the European and US trading sessions. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 shorts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 22. Lagarde speech: "water" on "water". Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 22. New geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, partial mobilization in Russia. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 22. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair only spent a couple of days in a formal flat on the hourly timeframe. Now it can resume the fall, because geopolitics has deteriorated significantly in its prospects. Although lately the pound clearly did not need a reason to continue falling. The fundamental background these days will be extremely strong and important, so the pair can thoroughly "fly" from side to side. We highlight the following important levels on September 22: 1.1354, 1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1760, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1543) and Kijun-sen (1.1410) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The results of the Bank of England meeting will be summed up in the UK on Thursday, which is important in itself. However, in addition to the market reaction to this event, traders can continue to work out the results of the Fed meeting, which ended last night. That is, two major events can intersect in the market reaction to them. And we can get ultra-volatile trades during the day. Thus, being cautious when opening any trading positions today is first and foremost. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322345
The Euro (EUR) Is Still Under The Strong Bearish Pressure

The EUR/USD Pair Outlook For The Bears Remains Very Good

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 08:26
EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD pair sharply resumed its downward movement on Wednesday and dropped to the lower border of the 0.9877-1.0072 horizontal channel. This border was even overcome, that is, the pair again updated its 20-year lows. Moreover, all this happened even before the announcement of the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, which we deliberately do not consider now, since the market needs to be given time to fully work them out. Moreover, in any case, traders had to leave the market before the announcement of the results, since we do not recommend trading in the evening and at night. During the day, there were no important events either in the US or in the European Union, so we can't immediately explain the euro's new fall at first glance. However, at a second glance, everything is clear. In the morning, Russia announced a partial mobilization to participate in the military conflict in Ukraine. In the evening, rallies against mobilization were held throughout Russia, but it is clear to everyone that the geopolitical situation in Ukraine may worsen in the near future. And if geopolitics worsens again, then the euro and the pound again fall into the risk zone, since the dollar is in high demand in such situations. It should be noted right away that the Kijun-sen line fell to the level of 0.9967 during the past day, and it was from this level that the price rebounded during the European trading session. Therefore, the first sell signal was formed at the very beginning of the downward movement. Subsequently, the price overcame the level of 0.9945, and it was also possible to open short positions on this signal. As a result, by the middle of the US session, the quotes dropped to the level of 0.9877, where it was necessary to close positions in profit of about 65 points. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 2,500, while the number of shorts decreased by 22,000. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 24,500 contracts. This is quite a lot and we can talk about a significant weakening of the bearish mood. However, so far this fact does not give any dividends to the euro, which still remains "at the bottom". The only thing is that in recent weeks it has done without another collapse, unlike the pound. At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 12,000. This difference is no longer too large, so one could expect the start of a new upward trend, but what if the demand for the US dollar remains so high that even the growth in demand for the euro does not save the situation for the euro/dollar currency pair? We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 22. Lagarde speech: "water" on "water". Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 22. New geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, partial mobilization in Russia. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 22. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The outlook for the bears remains very good on the hourly timeframe. Summing up the results of the Fed meeting and analyzing the final reaction of the market should be done only in the late afternoon, so we do not consider the movements that happened last night. However, in any case, the global downtrend persists, so the euro may update its 20-year lows more than once this year. We highlight the following levels for trading on Thursday - 0.9877, 0.9945, 1.0019, 1.0072, 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0031) and Kijun-sen lines (0.9958). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important event is planned in the European Union and the Untied States on September 22. But even if they were, the market would hardly pay attention to them, since, most likely, it will be busy working out the results of the Fed meeting. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322343
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

Could There Be A Corrective Increase In The British Pound After The BoE Meeting?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.09.2022 08:06
As a result of yesterday, when the Russian President announced the mobilization of 300,000 military from the reserve (the number may be reduced depending on the situation in Ukraine) and the Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.75%, the British pound lost 109 points. The Bank of England will hold a meeting today, and the rate can also be raised by 0.75%. The change in the rate is significant, and it can stop, or even turn the pound rate into a correction. From a purely technical point of view, we expect the support price to work out at 1.1170, then convergence with the Marlin Oscillator and recovery to 1.1385 is likely. Consolidating below 1.1170 is undesirable for the pound, as it will lose market support and will fall until investors get tired of selling (the target at 1.0830 is a technically powerful support for higher timeframes). The price is completely in a downward position on the four-hour chart, but here, too, the price is converging with the Marlin Oscillator. We are waiting for the BoE meeting and look forward to corrective growth of the British pound.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322353
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

GBP/USD (British Pound To US Dollar) - Technical Analysis - 21/09/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.09.2022 23:57
  Overview : The GBP/USD pair dropped from the level of 1.1427 to the bottom around 1.1236. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 1.1236 to close at 1.1264. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1236, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1427, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1236, the market will decline further to 1.1200 in order to test the weekly support 2. The pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. The strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.1861 because it represents the weekly resistance 1. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for a downtrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.1236 in the H1 chart. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1236 with the first target at 1.1200 and further to 1.1150. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9953 in order to test the second support (0.9900). The US Dollar and the Euro are two of the most prominent and well-known currencies in the world. The Euro versus US Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair has the largest global trading volume, meaning it is the world's most-traded currency pair. Whether you find the instrument easy or difficult to trade on, it's not a pair that many traders neglect, due to its daily volatility and price movement. At the same time, the breakup of 1.1427 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.1486 in order to retest the weekly resistance 2. Always remember that the market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Forecast (GBP/USD) : The volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD is still moving between 1.1354 and 1.1150 in coming hours. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend again. Hence, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1300 with the first target at 1.1200 and further to 1.1150 in order to test the daily support 2. However, if the GBP/USD is able to break out the daily support at 1.1427, the market will rise further to 1.1486 to approach support 2 next week. Conclusion : Downtrend scenario : On the downside, the 1.1427 level represents resistance. The next major resistance is located near the 1.1427, which the price may drift below towards the 1.1427 resistance region. The breakdown of 1.1236 will allow the pair to go further down to the prices of 1.1200 and 1.1150.   Relevance up to 23:00 2022-09-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293694
Forex: Finally Bank Of Japan (BoJ) Intervened! Euro: Could Today's Speeches Support Euro?

Forex: Euro To USD (EUR/USD) - Technical Analysis - 21/09/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.09.2022 23:55
  Overview : The US dollar's strong gains against the Euro have continued today ahead of the sturdy news. The common currency reached a high of more than three days earlier this morning. This technical analysis of EUR/USD looks at the one-hour chart. The highest price that EUR/USD reached for that period was 0.9961 (last bullish wave - top). The lowest price that the EUR/USD pair reached during that period was 0.9845 (right now). The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.9800 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 0.9800. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 0.9750, because in general, we remain bearish on Sept. 21st, 2022. Yesterday, the market moved from its top at 0.9961 and continued to drop towards the top of 0.9814. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current fall will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9961 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.9961 (the level of 0.9961 coincides with tha ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). The EUR/USD pair settled below 0.9961 and is testing the support level at 0.9800. RSI and Moving averages continue to give a very strong sell signal with all of the 50 and 100 EMAs successively above slower lines and below the price. The 50 EMA has extended further below the 100 this week. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength below the moving average (100) and (50). An alternative scenario is a final consolidation below MA 100 H1, followed by growth arund the area of 0.9905. The one-hour chart favors a downward extension, as the pair broke below its 50 and 100 EMAs, both gaining downward traction. Support from MAs comes initially from the value zone between the 50 and 100 EMAs. Industriously, Euro Is Losing ground against U.S. Dollar around +175 pips. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.9961 with the first target at 0.9814 so as to test the double bottom. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 0.9814, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 0.9750 in order to test the weekly support 2. According to the previous events the price is expected to remain between 0.9905 and 0.9750 levels. Sell-deals are recommended below the price of 0.9905 with the first target seen at 0.9814. The movement is likely to resume to the point 0.9750. The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 0.9750 with 0.9725 and 0.9700 seen as new targets in coing hours. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1 USD. Relevance up to 22:00 2022-09-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293692
The Bank Of Japan Should Do The Opposite Of What Western Banks Are Doing

The Bank Of Japan Should Do The Opposite Of What Western Banks Are Doing

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.09.2022 14:18
Today, the US Federal Reserve will finally announce its decision on interest rates and present new economic projections as well as the dot plot. On Wednesday morning, the futures market saw an 82% probability of a 75 basis point rate increase and an 18% chance of a hike by 100 basis points at once, which is in line with the earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, the greenback is edging higher but its upside potential is limited. During the day, demand for risk assets could increase as the Kremlin is preparing to hold a referendum in four partially occupied regions of Ukraine on joining Russia. This could trigger geopolitical jitters and change the course of the military confrontation. USD/CAD Inflation in Canada slowed to 7% in August from 7.6% in the previous month, beating economists' forecasts. Core inflation came at 5.8% versus 6.1% a month earlier. In this light, expectations of the hawkish Bank of Canada could ease, causing a drop in the loonie. The Canadian regulator will hold the board meeting in a week. Now there is a high probability of a more than 50 basis point rate rise. Otherwise, the Bank of Canada could choose to pause with tightening as the CPI, excluding food and energy prices, grew by 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted and yearly basis, the lowest rise since February 2021. In other words, with a slowdown in the inflation rate, the Bank of Canada could take some time – at least 5 weeks until the next meeting – to see how things unfold. The net long position on CAD dropped by 481 million in a week. CAD positioning is still bullish although bearish sentiment is increasing. Meanwhile, the fair value is rising. Last week, the target stood at the swing high of 1.3222, The quote broke through the barrier and approached the technical resistance level of 1.3335. The impulse is still strong and is unlikely to end any time soon. The new target is seen in the 1.3640/60 resistance zone. The price could approach the range already by the end of the week. USD/JPY In Japan, inflation hit 3% year-over-year in August, coming above market expectations. Still, Japan is not one of those countries that are now dealing with soaring inflation. Although the price of goods in the country accelerated by 5.7% year-over-year, the price of services saw an uptick of just 0.2% (49.54% of the whole index). This is due to a sluggish rise in wages and long-term prospects of decreasing internal demand amid the depopulation and aging of Japanese society. The Bank of Japan simply cannot set the same inflation target as in the West, given its significant structural differences. In other words, while other central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB, are doing everything to tame inflation, the Bank of Japan should do the opposite. Therefore, the Japanese regulator will hardly change its stance on monetary policy. The Bank of Japan has recently checked to see how the yen is doing. It called dealers at commercial banks to find out about the current state of the foreign exchange market. The bank does this, expecting intervention from the government (the Minister of Finance), which is legally responsible for the country's exchange rate policy. Exchange rate checking serves a dual purpose. Firstly, it lets the market know that the government is ready to intervene. Secondly, it signals that the authorities are concerned about the speed of market change. Oftentimes, after such checks, the government intervenes to stabilize the yen, especially since the yield on 10-year bonds has been holding 1 point above the target (0.251%) for several days. In other words, intervention is the only thing that can be done. This is also a signal of an imminent inflow of liquidity. So,