InstaForex Analysis

InstaForex Analysis

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On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.01.2023 08:07
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.08%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.95%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was American Express Company, which gained 16.43 points or 10.54% to close at 172.31. Visa Inc Class A rose 6.73 points or 3.00% to close at 231.44. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 0.67 points or 1.84% to close at 37.17. The least gainers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 1.93 points or 6.41% to end the session at 28.16. Chevron Corp was up 4.44% or 8.34 points to close at 179.45 while The Travelers Companies Inc was down 1.74% or 3.35 points to close at 188. .76. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 10.99% to 177.88, American Express Company, which gained 10.54% to close at 172.31, and shares of L3Harris Technologies Inc, which rose 7.92% to end the session at 212.10. The least gainers were Hasbro Inc, which shed 8.11% to close at 58.61. Shares of KLA Corporation shed 6.85% to end the session at 399.37. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were BuzzFeed Inc, which rose 85.17% to 3.87, Applied UV Inc, which gained 52.88% to close at 1.59, and shares of Lucid Group Inc, which rose 43.00% to end the session at 12.87. The least gainers were Nemaura Medical Inc, which shed 42.31% to close at 1.65. Shares of Jack Creek Investment Corp. lost 33.79% and ended the session at 12.44. Quotes of Akerna Corp fell in price by 31.46% to 1.22. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,738) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,303), while quotes of 114 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,131 companies rose in price, 1,535 declined, and 173 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.17% to 18.51. Commodities Gold futures for February delivery lost 0.09%, or 1.80, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery fell 1.91%, or 1.55, to $79.46 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery fell 1.18%, or 1.03, to $86.44 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.19% to 1.09, while USD/JPY fell 0.30% to hit 129.82. Futures on the USD index rose 0.08% to 101.72.   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310476
The Price Of EUR/USD Pair Will Develop Sideways Movement

The Price Of EUR/USD Pair Will Develop Sideways Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.01.2023 08:03
Last Friday, the euro was down 22 points. The trading volume was below the average, which suggests that big players have a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Such an observation would indicate a likely strong move right on the day of the announcement of the Fed meeting results. I believe that the euro will move downward, since the Fed still maintains its monetary policy, including the verbal one, more hawkish than that of the European Central Bank meeting. An extended divergence is gaining strength on the daily chart. We can talk about breaking the downtrend in the medium-term once the price has settled under the MACD indicator line (1.0718). By this time, the Marlin oscillator has already moved into negative territory. The first target will be the support at 1.0595, which is the December 5 high, coinciding with the Fibonacci correction level of 23.6% of the growth since last September 28. On the four-hour chart, the price settled below the MACD line, but it is still held by the balance line, which indirectly confirms the wait-and-see attitude of speculators. Divergence pressure is weakening, the oscillator signal line may briefly return to the green zone, the price will develop sideways movement under the MACD line (1.0892).   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333546
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.01.2023 13:45
The key takeaway from yesterday's Q4 GDP report was that economic growth in the US was strong at the end of 2022, thanks to the strong labor market and lower inflationary pressures. The BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) said inflation-adjusted GDP is up 2.9% year-on-year for the 4th quarter of 2022. However, compared to Q3 2022, the figure is lower because the growth back then was 3.2%. Most likely, the reason for growth is the consumer spending report, which rose by 2.1%. The second half of last year was also very different because the beginning of 2022 was a time of economic recession. The US has recovered since then, and the agressive rate hikes by the Fed did not lead to a deeper recession. However, it should be noted that the average GDP growth was only 1% last year, much lower than that of 2021's, which is 5.7%. If the Federal Reserve does not raise rates by more than a percentage point at the next two FOMC meetings, bullish sentiment will persist in the precious metals market. Currently, the core PCE report is forecast to show a decrease from 4.7% in November to 4.4% in December. Many analysts believe that inflation will continue to fall, but will stop at a certain level that is well above the Fed's target of 2%. If this assumption comes true, the Fed will face more problems, that is, raise the 2% target or remain aggressive for a longer period. Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333459
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

Gold May Continue Falling In The Coming Days

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.01.2023 08:06
Early in the European session, Gold is trading around 1,926 below the 21 SMA (1,934) and below the 7/8 Murray (1,937.50). The daily pivot point is located at 1,932 which could be a sign that if XAU/USD trades below this level, we could expect it to continue falling in the coming days. Gold's strength weakened after peaking at 1,949 and the price is now falling below 1,934 (21 SMA). Gold is under bearish pressure due to the recovery of the dollar supported by US data. Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter increased by 2.9%, above the consensus estimate of 2.8%. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the last Japanese candlesticks are showing signs of a technical correction and it is likely that gold will continue to fall in the coming days until it reaches the 200 EMA located at 1,862. We can also see that the uptrend channel formed since December 12 was broken, which could be a sign of a strong technical correction in the coming days and the instrument could fall towards 1,900 and 1,862. If gold trades below 1,934 in the next few days, we can expect it to continue falling and the price could reach the psychological level of 1,900 and could even reach 6/8 Murray at 1,875. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 1,934 with targets at 1,920, 1,901, and 1,875. The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal and is approaching oversold levels. The key will be to wait for gold to reach the area of 1,875 which will be good support to resume the bullish cycle. Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310285
It Is Quite Possible That The Australian Dollar Is Tired Of Growth

It Is Quite Possible That The Australian Dollar Is Tired Of Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.01.2023 08:00
AUD/USD has initially consolidated in the 0.7090-0.7130 range - the body of Thursday's daily candle is fully within this range. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator starts to turn down. It is quite possible that the Australian dollar, the leader of the current week, is tired of growth and turns down from the current levels. It is possible that the price will go above the reached range, but the Federal Reserve meeting will be held on Wednesday, and in case this meeting has a hawkish tone, the US dollar will attack on all the financial fronts, and the AUD/USD pair will not reach the target level. In fact, we will get a typical false price exit above the technical resistance. On the four-hour chart, the price consolidates in the 0.7090-0.7130 range, the Marlin oscillator is in a position of having two interpretations: the formation of a small divergence (possible decline, a small correction), the decrease in the signal line of the oscillator as a discharge of the oscillator before its further growth. Further price growth as development of the current uptrend is possible once the price settles above 0.7130. The reversal may occur only when the price crosses the MACD indicator line (0.7063). This mark coincides with the local low of January 25 (gray oval).     Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333405
Swiss Pension Fund Publica Will Increase Its Share Of Gold To 1%

Swiss Pension Fund Publica Will Increase Its Share Of Gold To 1%

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.01.2023 13:58
The gold market continues to attract the attention of new investors. After a bad year for equity and bond markets, one Swiss pension fund is looking to diversify its holdings. Publica, one of Switzerland's largest pension funds, with $44 billion in assets under management, said it was increasing its stake in real assets such as real estate and precious metals as it expects inflation to remain high over the next decade. In an interview with Top1000Funds.com, Publica's head of asset management, Stefan Beiner, said the fund will increase its share of gold to 1%. The fund is also adding new risks to private infrastructure equity. In 2023, the fund will reduce its bond liabilities by 14% and increase its equity liabilities by 5%. The new strategic asset allocation comes after the fund posted a 9.6% net loss last year, mainly due to falling stock and bond prices. The report said that in 2022, bonds had the largest adverse effect. With a total return of approximately -12%, they made a negative contribution of -6.3 percentage points to a consolidated total return of -9.6%. The fund had several highlights in 2022. The pension fund said its real estate portfolio saw a positive return of 3.9%, with foreign real estate investment up 14% on a currency hedging basis. Last year, Publica had several precious metals in its portfolio, and the fund reported a return of 0.6%. While the pension fund said it sees long-term potential in its new strategic asset allocation, Beiner warned that the short-term outlook is challenging. The shift in Publica's asset allocation came as the traditional 60/40 portfolio weighting had the worst annual performance since the 1930s. Inflation, hitting its highest level in 40 years, forced central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, to aggressively raise interest rates, pushing up bond yields and crashing stock markets. Meanwhile, despite a 20-year high for the U.S. dollar, gold has outperformed both bond and equity markets. In 2022, gold was the second best performing asset after the U.S. dollar.   Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333346
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.01.2023 08:18
Early in the European session, the British pound is trading around 1.2398 showing a slight technical correction after reaching 1.2417 in the Asian session. Yesterday during the American session, the British pound made a strong technical rebound when it reached the bottom of the uptrend channel formed since January 11. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the British pound has been trading within a downtrend channel formed since January 18. A few hours ago, the GBP/USD pair managed to touch the top of this channel and we could expect a technical correction towards the 21 SMA at 1.2361. The instrument could even reach an area of 1.2310 (bullish channel bottom). On the other hand, in case the GBP/USD pair consolidates below 1.2361 there is a strong signal that the pound could fall and even break the bullish channel and reach the area of 6/8 Murray located at 1.2207. Additionally, if bullish strength prevails, we could expect a pullback towards 7/8 Murray located at 1.2450. In case this level acts as a barrier and the pound fails to consolidate above this zone, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell, with targets at 1.2360 (21 SMA) and 1.2207 (6/8 Murray). In case the pound resumes its bullish cycle, we should expect it to consolidate above 1.2450, then it could reach the psychological level of 1.25 and 8/8 Murray located at 1.2695. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell the pound below the downtrend channel around 1.2414 or to wait for a pullback towards 1.2451, with targets at 1.2361, 1.2300 and 1.2207   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310102
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

On The New York Stock Exchange Only The Dow Jones Index Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.01.2023 08:10
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.03%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.02%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.18%.  Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company, which gained 2.12 points or 2.00% to close at 108.12. McDonald's Corporation rose 3.44 points or 1.28% to close at 273.00. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 0.38 points or 1.06% to close at 36.28. The least gainers were 3M Company shares, which lost 2.07 points or 1.80% to end the session at 112.93. The Travelers Companies Inc was up 1.30% or 2.51 points to close at 190.74 while Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN) was down 1.22% or 3.16 points or ended trading at 256.54. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were MarketAxess Holdings Inc, which rose 10.25% to 363.28, Capital One Financial Corporation, which gained 8.99% to close at 116.09. as well as Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which rose 8.59% to end the session at 14.53. The least gainers were Nextera Energy Inc, which shed 8.71% to close at 76.59. Shares of Nasdaq Inc lost 5.85% and ended the session at 58.30. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 5.50% to 243.80. NASDAQ The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Minerva Surgical Inc, which rose 65.90% to 0.38, Alvarium Tiedemann Holdings Inc, which gained 65.41% to close at 15.40. as well as shares of GeoVax Labs Inc, which rose 58.89% to close the session at 1.11. Shares of Grom Social Enterprises Inc became the leaders of the decline, which fell in price by 35.63%, closing at 2.06. Shares of Helbiz Inc lost 29.76% and ended the session at 0.29. Quotes of Waitr Holdings Inc decreased in price by 27.79% to 0.42. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1651) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1387), while quotes of 132 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1906 companies rose in price, 1745 fell, and 194 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.63% to 19.08. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 0.60%, or 11.70, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 0.46%, or 0.37, to $80.50 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 0.30%, or 0.26, to $86.39 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.28% to 1.09, while USD/JPY fell 0.46% to hit 129.55. Futures on the USD index fell 0.27% to 101.40. Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310098
Inflation In Japan Continues To Show An Uptrend, The USD/JPY Pair Is Going Down

Inflation In Japan Continues To Show An Uptrend, The USD/JPY Pair Is Going Down

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.01.2023 08:05
The USD/JPY pair has been trading in its own "coordinate system", prioritizing fundamental factors. For example, the pair was actively rising at the start of the week, despite the decline in the U.S. dollar index. Traders of USD/JPY ignored the general weakening of the US currency and even updated the local high (131.14). We will discuss the reasons for such behavior below, but first of all we should pay attention to the most important fact: the bulls failed to settle above the resistance level of 131.00 (middle line of the indicator Bollinger Bands on the D1 chart). Bulls found it hard to climb above this level, which speaks about how unstable their position is. The scale is still in favor of the yen, even in that isolated "coordinate system", in which the pair has to trade. Yen at the helm What is the peculiarity of the pair's behavior? For so many years, the yen acted as a follower, while the greenback took the lead. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who was appointed to his post in 2013, repeated the same mantra month after month - that the central bank is committed to accommodative policy and, if necessary, ready to further ease monetary policy parameters. Everybody got used to this rhetoric and did not react to it, at least in the context of the USD/JPY pair. Nearly all of the BOJ meetings were of a pass-through nature, so they had little effect on the price values. But everything changed in December, when the BOJ allowed long-term Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to move in a wider range at the end of the last meeting in 2022. This decision was made, firstly, quite unexpectedly, and secondly - ahead of Kuroda's resignation (he will leave his post in April). Therefore, the market interpreted the outcome of the December meeting very unambiguously, coming to the conclusion that the central bank had taken the first step towards the normalization of monetary policy. Since then, the yen has ceased to be a "slave" in the USD/JPY pair: the focus is no longer just on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy prospects, but also on the prospects of a pivot in the Japanese central bank's policy. The BOJ strikes back The BOJ obviously did not expect such a violent reaction from the market and such unambiguous, categorical conclusions. That is why Kuroda said back in late December that the central bank was not going to abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy in the near future. But the market ignored his rhetoric. Earlier this week, the bears had to deal with another blow: the BOJ published the minutes of its December meeting where several Governing Council members stressed that the "the Bank should carefully explain that it needs to continue with monetary easing, that its accommodative policy stance has not been changed,". The bears were then forced to retreat. Bulls took the initiative and hit a new local high on Tuesday, testing the 131.00 level of resistance. But they failed to hold on to their positions: the bears took the initiative as soon as the bullish momentum faded. At the moment, when this article was being written, the pair was already going down to the bottom of the 129th figure, almost 200 points away from the local high (in only 2 days!). The pair is going down not only because the dollar is "moping" (dollar index is moving to the base of the 101st figure again), but the yen is also strengthening its positions due to "its" own fundamental factors. Inflation, inflation, inflation First, inflation in Japan continues to show an uptrend, renewing multi-year records. Overall consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.0% in December. Excluding fresh food and energy, consumer prices climbed 3.0% annually, and the corporate goods price index was up 10.2% y/y. On Friday, January 27, Japan will publish another important inflation indicator, the January Tokyo Consumer Price Index. It is considered a leading indicator for price movements across the country, so certain conclusions can be drawn from the published figures. If it will be in favor of the yen again, the USD/JPY pair may return to the area of 127-128 figures, where it was traded in early January. Traders of the pair are now acting ahead of the consolidated forecasts. Thus, according to most experts, Tokyo's overall CPI will rise to 4.2%: the last time the figure was at that high was in November 1981. The other components of the report (excluding fresh food prices; excluding food and energy prices) should also show an uptrend. Conclusions Judging by the results of the last few days, we can conclude that the yen held its ground and did not let the bulls settle above the resistance level of 131.00. Undoubtedly, the greenback, which is getting weaker all over the market again, has also played its part. But we should also consider that the pair was rising this week while the USD index was falling. Therefore, the pair is bearish also due to the strengthening of the Japanese currency. Further price declines will largely depend on this week's key releases: if US GDP growth data for Q4 and the core PCE index come out in the red, while Tokyo CPI surprises with its greenback, the pressure on the pair will only intensify. The main bearish target is 127.30 (bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 chart).   Relevance up to 01:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333277
Bitcoin Has A Sign Of The Sideways Regime

Bitcoin Can Expect A Consolidation Movement In The Coming Days

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.01.2023 14:26
In three full weeks of upward movement, Bitcoin made a bullish breakout of several key resistance levels. The price confidently consolidated above $22.5k, but later the asset began to have local problems. Bitcoin approaches a correction Above the $22.5k level, the sellers' resistance began to build up, and the longs/shorts ratio is gradually approaching consensus. At the same time, news that Bitcoin has exceeded the average cost price is emerging, which has also strengthened the bears' position. To top it all off, after the all-time BTC outflow at the end of 2022, dormant wallets began moving assets to exchanges. This happened as part of the process of fixing local profits or closing positions at breakeven. All these movements are a classic market reaction to a strong bullish trend after months of consolidation and decline. Also, do not forget that BTC technical indicators have been in the overbought zone for more than a week. Having made a series of unsuccessful retests of the $23k level, the positions of the bulls began to weaken. Over the past five days, five candles with long lower and upper wicks have formed on the Bitcoin daily chart, indicating a fight for the initiative. Bitcoin and SPX The correlation between the SPX index and Bitcoin weakens from time to time, which allows the assets to implement their own price movement scenarios. This process will continue as buyers become more active. As a result of yesterday's trading day, assets again strengthened the level of correlation and ended the session in a similar situation. At the same time, SPX shows greater stability, leveling the selling pressure and holding the $4,000 level. This is where the excess volatility of Bitcoin, which showed more active and profitable growth in a shorter period of time, comes into play. As a result, the cryptocurrency was more overbought in all technical metrics, and therefore we can assume that BTC will set the dynamics of the movement, and the SPX index will follow it after a few days. BTC/USD Analysis Bitcoin network activity charts show that mid-January saw an unprecedented surge in investment activity over the past six months. As a consequence, the coin managed to form several large green candles. This process was also confirmed by the upward dynamics of the asset's trading volumes. However, as of January 25, there is no doubt that the local peak of trading activity has been passed. Network metrics start to decline but hold high positions. We see the corresponding results on the Bitcoin chart. The asset reached a local peak and finally moved to the consolidation phase. The stabilization process will occur within the $22.3k–$23.4k range. The lower boundary of the corridor was formed following the results of yesterday's trading day, when sellers tried to force out the bulls, but faced a backlash near $22.3k. Technical metrics look overbought, and therefore the consolidation phase may be delayed. The on-chain activity of the cryptocurrency has also begun to decline, and therefore BTC will expect a reaction from market makers or a strong news event. This may be the Fed meeting in early February, where there will be another slowdown in the rate hike. It is expected that the indicator will increase by only 0.25%. This will give investors more confidence in the gradual curtailment of the quantitative easing policy. Results Bitcoin has reached a local high, and we can expect a consolidation movement within the range of $22.3k–$23.4k in the coming days. Given that trading activity remains at a decent level, volatility spikes are not ruled out. Do not forget that BTC has completed the formation of the cup and handle pattern. In the medium term, this means that we can count on the upward movement of the cryptocurrency to the levels of $28k–$30k. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333221
Key events in developed markets next week - 28.01.2023

The ECB Is Maintaining A Good Face With A Poor Game

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.01.2023 08:38
Christine Lagarde has spoken four times since the start of last week. Today, Lagarde delivered a speech at a gathering in Germany as part of the international conference in Davos. Her lectures undoubtedly captured the markets' interest, but did they also provide them with the knowledge they needed to continue working? I don't believe the markets have learned anything new for themselves as a result of the ECB president's numerous statements. But let's examine this in greater detail. The cost of gas has decreased by three times First of all, Christine Lagarde reaffirmed that interest rates would rise further. Rate increases of another 100 basis points are currently anticipated for the meetings in February and March, after which a further rise of 25 basis points is possible. As a result, the ECB rate might increase to 3.75% in four months. Such a rate level, in my opinion, cannot be described as "restrictive." In recent years, the Fed or the ECB has frequently used this phrase to describe a rate level at which economic growth is impractical and indicators of corporate activity, demand, and inflation are falling. But does the growth rate mean that inflation is now decreasing? Let me remind you that prices have come down considerably over the past few months in the major oil and gas hubs across the world. The cost of crude oil has decreased by $40 and that of some of its varieties by 60%. The cost of gas has decreased by three times. This is not a typo; in fact, it's very feasible in the present world. So, perhaps the terrible energy crisis that was expected to cause inflation in the Eurozone is not the reason why the ECB rate has been raised to 2.5% right now? In 2023 or 2024 gas prices will rise again Second, Christine Lagarde brought up China's decision to ditch its zero-tolerance COVID policy and fully open its economy. The volume of gas supply after the actual denial of supplies from Russia at many hubs is not very large, according to Lagarde, and such a decision will raise the demand for gas, which is necessary at many production facilities. A shortage of "blue fuel" and a rise in its price may result from China starting to increase output. Additionally, it appears as though the drop in gasoline costs is only a passing occurrence. It should be understood that although the European Union has located additional "blue fuel" providers, there is still a shortage. I think there's a good chance that in 2023 or 2024, gas prices will rise again, which would lead to another spike in inflation. Third, Christine Lagarde reaffirmed the ECB's commitment to taking all necessary steps to bring inflation back to the predetermined level. But nothing was revealed about the time of this return, the rate increase's speed, or the rate's ultimate level. Will the market's response to what is happening to be the same as it is now if the recovery of the consumer price index takes five years? I think the ECB is maintaining a "good face with a poor game" by not being willing to make any concessions to get inflation down to 2%. Demand for the euro will start to fall as soon as the market learns that controlling inflation in the EU may prove to be a challenging assignment for the regulator. I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The market will be ready to finish the wave e when a bid to break through the 1.0950 level fails. A downward trend section is still assumed  The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1.1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over; however, it might yet take a longer form than it does right now. However, you must exercise caution while making sales because the pound has a significant tendency to rise Relevance up to 16:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333147
The British Pound Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion Of The Bullish Force

The British Pound Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion Of The Bullish Force

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.01.2023 08:17
Early in the European session, the British pound is trading around 1.2326 showing signs of exhaustion of the bullish force. We can see that it is consolidating below the uptrend channel that has been broken. GBP/USD is now below the 21 SMA located at 1.2364 and above the 6/8 Murray located at 1.2207. Yesterday during the American session, the British pound fell to a low of around 1.2261, after better-than-expected US PMI and weak UK data. GBP/USD started a technical rebound from 1.2261 and is now consolidating around 1.2322. This level is the key because it is located below the uptrend channel formed since January 9, which has become a strong resistance. Only a daily close above 1.2370 on the 4-hour chart could mean the resumption of the bullish cycle and the pound could once again trade within the uptrend channel and GBP/USD could reach 7/8 Murray at 1.2451 and could even reach the psychological level of 1.25. If the British pound trades below the key point of 1.2370 in the next few hours, there is a possibility that it will continue to fall and the instrument could reach the 6/8 Murray at 1.2207 and could even reach the 200 EMA located at 1.2153. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1.2365 or at current price levels around 1.2322, with targets at 1.2250, 1.2207, and 1.2153.   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309905
Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.01.2023 15:25
In her recent speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank will do whatever is necessary to bring inflation back to its target level. "We will stay the course to ensure the timely return of inflation to our target," she said. "It is vital that inflation rates above the ECB's 2% target do not become entrenched in the economy," she added. This more or less hints that interest rates will continue to increase in the coming meetings. Lagarde's comments add to the unfolding debate on whether a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes is appropriate as inflation falls from record highs. Last week, the ECB chief said that sticking to the course of the rate hike is her "political mantra", especially since attention has now shifted from headlines to record core inflation. Following this news, EUR/USD is up 13,000 pips since October last year. Hawkish officials, such as Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, want at least two more half-point rate hikes starting next week. Some, however, wants to be cautious as the increase may go too far. Yannis Stournaras, governor of the Bank of Greece, advocated a more gradual approach as economic growth in the eurozone wanes. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333095
Bitcoin Maintains A Steady Bullish Potential

Bitcoin Maintains A Steady Bullish Potential

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.01.2023 11:57
Despite the obvious overbought, Bitcoin continues its upward movement. The asset broke through the $23k level, where the price is consolidating for further upward movement. At the same time, there is no significant increase in daily trading volumes, which may indicate a weakening of the bullish trend. The $23k–$23.4k resistance zone does not allow the cryptocurrency to continue a confident bullish rally, and the slowdown in the upward trend of trading volumes complicates the situation. Another reason for Bitcoin's slowdown may be important economic reports that will appear this week. Today, the publication of Microsoft's financial statements is expected, and its results will have a direct impact on stock indices, and therefore on Bitcoin. Read next: Salesforce Is Being Tested As Its Growth Slows Down| FXMAG.COM Also, on Thursday and Friday, the indicators of the durable goods market and the level of core inflation will be released. All these publications will be a prelude to the Fed meeting next week, and therefore we can expect a gradual increase in volatility in key markets, including cryptocurrency. Fundamental incentives for further growth At the current stage of the price movement, it is extremely beneficial for Bitcoin to maintain a high level of correlation with stock indices. For example, Carlson experts note that the end of January is historically one of the strongest periods in the stock market. As a result, SPX broke through the $4,000 level, and Bitcoin climbed above $23k. At the same time, CoinShares notes a significantly increased interest in financial products based on cryptocurrencies. The inflow amounted to $37 million, which is also the result of a local thaw in the global economy. JPMorgan experts, analyzing the state of the global economy, change the pessimistic forecast, adding a little hope to it. The bank's analysts believe that 7 out of 9 classes of financial assets indicate a decrease in the probability of a recession in the United States to 50%. Recall that at the end of 2022, JPMorgan believed that the probability of a recession in the United States was 85%–100%. A similar opinion was expressed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said that the agency predicts U.S. GDP growth in 2023 by 1%. Thus, the financier believes the United States may avoid an economic recession. At the same time, JPMorgan analysts note that in the near future we should expect profit-taking on stock instruments. The same applies to cryptocurrencies because the growth of the asset in January allows, at least, to fix a breakeven. BTC/USD Analysis In a fundamental way, nothing has changed on the Bitcoin daily chart. The cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase near the $22.9k–$23.1k area. The bearish positions remain strong, as evidenced by the retest of the $23k level for four days in a row without visible success. At the same time, the bears fail to develop a downward trend, as buyers instantly absorb volumes near the $22.9k level. This indicates a strong bullish trend and an early breakout and consolidation above $23k. In the medium term, Bitcoin remains extremely overbought. The technical RSI and Stochastic indicators have been moving above the 85 levels since the beginning of January, and the stubbornness of the bulls will eventually lead the market to a deeper correction. Results Bitcoin maintains a steady bullish potential, which greatly increases the full-fledged breakdown of the $23k level in the coming days. Despite the need for a correction, the asset will continue to hold the $22.9k level and move upward. At the current stage, BTC correction is not expected, as there has been a significant activation of buyers. Considering this local decline, we should expect it in the presence of a combination of factors, including mass profit taking, increased volatility and the activation of large sellers.   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333101
Hedge Funds Have Continued To Invest In Gold, The Bullish Position Of Silver Is Holding

Hedge Funds Have Continued To Invest In Gold, The Bullish Position Of Silver Is Holding

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.01.2023 11:53
For the seventh consecutive week, hedge funds have continued to invest in gold, according to the latest trading data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. According to some analysts, the gold market continues to benefit from the change in expectations regarding interest rates in the U.S., which weakens the U.S. dollar. Everyone is currently waiting for the Federal Reserve to further slow down the pace of its rate hike by 25 basis points next month. The expected end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle has sent the U.S. dollar index down to a seven-month low. At the same time, gold prices are trading near a nine-month high, with prices holding initial support above $1,900 an ounce. According to the CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, money managers at Comex increased their speculative long positions on gold futures by 7,618 contracts to 124,222. At the same time, short positions rose by 50 contracts to 54,845. However, while the market is still healthy bullish, some analysts see signs that the precious metal is entering a consolidation phase. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is oversold. And further sluggish investment demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds may suggest that the rally is running out of steam. Commodity analysts at TD Securities also warn of a potential spike in gold prices as the Chinese market is closed this week for Lunar New Year celebrations. While the gold market continues to attract speculative investor interest, the silver market is struggling to keep up. Comex speculative long positions in silver futures rose 1,215 contracts to 46,115 contracts, while short positions fell by 2,019 contracts to 19,647 contracts, according to the disaggregated report. Silver now has a net length of 26,468 contracts. The bullish position is holding near an eight-month high. Growing fears that the U.S. is heading for a recession are putting pressure on the precious metal, some analysts say; however, silver also lags behind other industrial metals such as copper. The COT report showed that Comex speculative long positions in copper futures rose 9,388 contracts to 72,421. At the same time, short positions rose 2,845 contracts to 39,467. Copper's net length is now at 32,954 contracts, the highest level since early April. During the survey period, a solid bullish speculative stance drove prices to a seven-month high above $4.20 a pound. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333091
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

On The New York Stock Exchange More Securities Rose In Prices

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.01.2023 08:10
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.76%, the S&P 500 rose 1.19%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.01%. Dow Jones Shares of Intel Corporation led the way among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 1.05 points or 3.59% to close at 30.27. Salesforce Inc rose 4.62 points or 3.05% to close at 155.87. Apple Inc rose 2.35% or 3.24 points to close at 141.11. The least gainers were Procter & Gamble Company, which shed 1.92 points or 1.34% to end the session at 141.05. Verizon Communications Inc was up 0.93% or 0.37 points to close at 39.63 while Amgen Inc was down 0.86% or 2.27 points to close at 260. 97. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which rose 9.22% to hit 76.53, Western Digital Corporation, which gained 8.66% to close at 41.79. as well as shares of Tesla Inc, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 143.75. The least gainers were Xylem Inc, which shed 7.95% to close at 101.42. Shares of SBA Communications Corp shed 3.55% to end the session at 286.27. Schlumberger NV fell 2.60% to 55.86. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Gbs, which rose 293.13% to hit 1.03, Helbiz Inc, which gained 109.13% to close at 0.43, and VERB TECHNOLOGY COMPANY INC, which rose 69.65% to end the session at 0.39. The least gainers were Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 29.04% to close at 14.76. Shares of Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc shed 25.11% to end the session at 3.40. Quotes of Ontrak Inc decreased in price by 21.23% to 0.83. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2196) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (841), while quotes of 122 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2362 companies rose in price, 1346 fell, and 201 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.20% to 19.81. Commodities Gold futures for February delivery added 0.23%, or 4.35, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 0.01%, or 0.01, to $81.65 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 0.57%, or 0.50, to $88.13 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.15% to 1.09, while USD/JPY rose 0.84% to hit 130.65. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.01% to 101.79. Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309717
Botcoin May Continue Its Upward Movement This Week

Bitcoin May Continue Its Upward Movement This Week

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.01.2023 14:25
Bitcoin ended the previous trading week with the largest bullish candle in the past two months. Over the weekend, the situation did not change dramatically, but buyers tried to build on the bullish success. However, no significant results were achieved, and the price spent the weekend in consolidation near the $23k level. There is no doubt that the current events are the result of the completion of the main stage of the consolidation cycle. Bitcoin is systematically making bullish breakouts of difficult resistance zones, leveling the bearish sentiment in the market. The bull trend is still strong Santiment experts believe that the cryptocurrency's current upward movement was made possible by a successful period of redistribution of BTC coins. Analysts also report that a large group of addresses with balances of 1,000–10,000 BTC played a significant role in the rally. Big capital accumulated more than 64,000 BTC in a month and a half of consolidation, which is equivalent to $1.46 billion. At the same time, we have repeatedly mentioned that smaller addresses also actively participated in the accumulation. As a result, we see that the period of redistribution and absorption of BTC coins by long-term investors is coming to an end. At the same time, it is important to note that the current trading activity, which remains in the region of $25 billion per day, is still not enough. According to the latest statistics, about 75% of all existing BTC remain stored on cold wallets. This reduces Bitcoin's bullish potential, but at the same time, points to the cryptocurrency's fundamental value, as more than 14 million BTCs are safe and cannot affect the market. That said, there is no doubt that more institutional investors will return to the market as the cryptocurrency price recovers. A key signal for the upcoming rally will be Grayscale's performance. Given the recent FTX-related events and the still high volatility of the crypto market, "whales" prefer to acquire BTC through investments in familiar instruments—stocks. Given these facts, we can conclude that the closer the market is to the next bullish rally, the greater the growth of Grayscale shares we will see. Another important factor that indicates the end of the bear market is the macro pattern of the BTC price recovery movement. The current price movement of Bitcoin is fully consistent with similar situations in 2012 and 2016. As of January 23, the cryptocurrency fully follows the route from the local bottom to the gradual formation of a new value record. BTC/USD Analysis Noting the fundamental factors behind the growth of the cryptocurrency, it is important to highlight the SPX index, which ended the trading week on a high note. The asset has formed a bullish engulfing pattern and may continue its upward movement this week. The correlation between SPX and BTC remains, but lately we have seen the crypto asset exhibit more independent behavior. Given this, we can assume that the relationship between Bitcoin and the stock index may decline soon. As for the technical picture, Bitcoin made an unsuccessful retest of the $23.4k level over the weekend. At the same time, the asset has finally completed the formation of the "cup and handle" pattern, which indicates the continuation of the upward movement. The ultimate potential for a cup and handle pattern is $28k. However, the next few days will show how much market sentiment will change, and if euphoria occurs, the pattern may go through local price drops. Institutions are entering the market again and dormant market makers are becoming more active, so you should be prepared for increased volatility and an increase in the number of market manipulations. Results Bitcoin is still heavily overbought, but this does not affect the bullish potential of the cryptocurrency. At the same time, the asset will most likely continue to grow by the end of the current week due to the celebration of Chinese New Year, and therefore local euphoria will reign in Asian markets. Given this, Bitcoin will have time to test the $23.5k level and may move further towards $24k. However, the reporting period will start next week, including the Fed meeting. By that time, market sentiment will finally get bogged down in greed, and we should expect a local correction to the levels of $20k–$21k.     Relevance up to 11:00 2023-01-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332995
The U.S. Dollar Remains The Biggest Risk For Gold

The U.S. Dollar Remains The Biggest Risk For Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.01.2023 12:51
The latest weekly gold survey shows that optimistic analysts have a slight advantage; however, most analysts have stepped aside as they believe the precious metal looks slightly overvalued. At the same time, the survey shows that retail investors are optimistic about gold prices for the current week; however, the low level of participation in online surveys does not add confidence to the positive market sentiment. Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said it's hard to ignore gold's bullish momentum. He explained that the growing headwinds to the U.S. economy are creating a lot of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which benefits gold. "I think this rally has some room to move higher," he said. "The whisper number is $2,000 and that is when you will see investors take profits on their long positions. As long as gold can stay above $1,920, I think it has a shot of going higher." On the other hand, Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he expects gold to consolidate at current levels before resuming gains. "While the longer-term trend remains positive for Gold, technically, it has had a good run lately and is looking a bit tired and due for a brief pause," he said. Last week, 18 Wall Street analysts took part in the survey. Among the participants, eight analysts, or 44%, were optimistic about gold for the current week. At the same time, four analysts, or 22%, are bearish, and six analysts, or 33%, believe prices are trading sideways. Meanwhile, 783 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 500 respondents, or 64%, expect prices to rise this week. Another 169 voters, or 22%, said the price would come down, while 114 voters, or 15%, were neutral in the near term. Participation in online surveys dropped to a low last week. The overall bullish mood in the market is due to the fact that the gold market has been demonstrating growth for the fifth consecutive week. Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said he also expects the price of gold to fall this week, but sees any drop in the market as a long-term buying opportunity. "Gold needs a break after the strong run-up and it could be sparked by commentary around the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. Given current expectations, there is more potential for disappointment than a pleasant surprise. After a brief and shallow pullback, gold will be strong again; nothing has changed the story for the year," he said. For many analysts, the U.S. dollar remains the biggest risk for gold. The U.S. dollar index ended last week relatively unchanged. Analysts believe its 10.5% drop from September's 20-year high is a big reason why gold would rise 5% in the first month of 2023. However, some analysts see the dollar's sell-off as somewhat exaggerated and suggest that the greenback may find some support ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next month. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, slower than previously expected. According to Darin Newsome, senior technical analyst at Barchart.com, Gold is short-term overbought and the U.S. dollar index is short-term oversold. Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332983
Gold Is Showing The Strong Upside Momentum

The Gold Is Waiting For Show A Clear Signal To Sell

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.01.2023 08:05
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,932, below +2/8 Murray located at 1,937 and above the 21 SMA (1,917). We can see an accumulation in the latest Japanese candlesticks on the 4-hour chart, which could be a sign of exhaustion or a possible technical reversal. The pivot point for today is located at 1,927. This area is the key. If gold falls below, it is likely that we can see a technical correction towards 1,917. If it breaks this level, we could even expect it to fall towards +1/8 Murray located at 1,906. On the other hand, on the bullish side, gold should consolidate above 1,940, so we could expect a new bullish sequence which could push the price the level of 1,952 (R_3) and 1,960 (W_R2), daily and weekly resistance levels. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see the formation of a diamond pattern. If gold trades below 1,927, the signal could be confirmed and the price could fall in the short term towards the psychological level of 1,900. The market sentiment shows that there are 56% of operators who are buying gold and 44% are selling. This could be a clear sign that gold could have a technical correction in the coming days and the bullish cycle could resume again. The eagle indicator is moving below a bearish slope. We should wait for the XAU/USD pair to show a clear signal to sell. For this, we should wait for a close below 1,927 on the 4-hour chart. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,927 with targets at 1,917 and 1,906. In case there is a pullback to 1,937 and gold fails to consolidate above this level, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309551
For What It Is Worthy To Pay Attention Next Week 23.01-29.01

What It Is Worthy To Pay Attention Next Week 23.01-29.01

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.01.2023 15:36
High volatility continues to rock the markets. Last week was also influenced by it, especially after new data from the US published an important report. Last Wednesday's report showed a slowdown in inflation in the country, this time in the production of various goods: the PPI fell in December (to -0.5% against the forecast of -0.1% and the previous value of +0.2%, and to 6.2% on an annualized basis against the forecast of 6.8% and the previous value of 7.3%). A week earlier, consumer inflation data had also shown another slowdown, with the annual CPI falling back to 6.5% in December from 7.1% a month earlier and the core CPI dropping to 5.7% from 6% in November. At the same time, data on some of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy show a slowdown, which is a consequence, among other things, of the Federal Reserve's tight policy. In particular, according to the data from last week, the volume of industrial production declined again (to -0.7% in December from -0.6% in November), moreover, the forecasted decline by -0.1%, and capacity utilization rate - to 78.8% from 79.4% a month earlier. Despite the fairly good labor market conditions, the aforementioned and other data put pressure on Fed policymakers to reconsider their tough approach to monetary policy parameters in the direction of easing. Raising rates as macroeconomic indicators deteriorate is an unacceptable mistake, economists say, especially since the Fed's tight monetary policy has already borne fruit - inflation is falling, though still far from the 2% target. Next week will provide new food for thought for market participants regarding the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Particular attention will be paid to Thursday's release of preliminary U.S. GDP data for Q4 2022. Growth is expected to be 2.8% (after a 3.2% increase in Q3 and a decline in the first half of the year). This data will push back the threat of a technical recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline). Market participants will pay attention to the release of important macro data on both the U.S. and other major economies of the world, such as Canada, Australia, Germany, the eurozone economy, British, as well as the results of the Bank of Canada meeting (Wednesday) on the monetary policy. Monday, January 23 Australia. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (from Commonwealth Bank of Australia and S&P Global). Services PMI (from Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Markit Economics) (preliminary releases) These reports are an analysis of a survey of 400 purchasing managers in which respondents are asked to assess relative levels of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on company conditions, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Australian economy as a whole. These sectors form a significant part of Australian GDP. A result above 50 signals is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD. Data worse than 50 is seen as negative for the AUD. Previous Values: Manufacturing PMI: 50.2, 51.3, 52.7, 53.5, 53.8, 55.7, 56.2, 55.7. Services PMI: 47,3, 47,6, 49,3, 50,6, 50,2, 50,9, 52,6, 53,2. The level of influence on the markets is medium. Tuesday, January 24 Germany. Manufacturing PMI (PMI). Composite index (PMI) of business activity (preliminary releases). This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers in which respondents are asked to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on company conditions, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector accounts for a large portion of Germany's GDP. Normally, a result above 50 signals is seen as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative, or bearish for the EUR. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the EUR. Previous values: Manufacturing PMI: 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, Composite PMI: 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7. January forecast: 47.5 and 48.9, respectively. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. Eurozone. Manufacturing PMI Composite (preliminary release) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (manufacturing PMI) released by S&P Global is a significant indicator of business conditions in the eurozone. A result above 50 signals is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR. Data worse than the forecast and/or previous value will have a negative impact on the EUR. Previous values: 49,3, 47,8, 47,3, 48,1, 48,9, 49,9, 52,0, 54,8, 55,8, 54,9. Forecast for January: 49.0. The level of impact on markets (pre-release) is high. UK. Manufacturing and Services sectors (PMI) (provisional release) The PMI Manufacturing and Services Business Activity released by S&P Global is a significant indicator of British economic conditions. If the data is worse than expected and the previous value, the pound is likely to decline short-term, but sharply. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive effect on the pound. In the meantime, a result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is seen as negative for the GBP. Previous values: Manufacturing PMI: 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4, 47.3, 52.1, 52.8, 54.6, 55.8, 55.2, 58.0, 57.3. Services PMI: 49,9, 48,8, 48,8, 50,0, 50,9, 52,6, 54,3, 53,4. Forecast for January: 45.0 and 49.9, respectively. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. US. S&P Global Business Activity Indices (PMI): Manufacturing, Composite and Services Economy (Preliminary Release) The S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI are among other monthly reports released by S&P Global and are important indicators of the health of the US manufacturing and US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the USD. Readings above 50 signals an acceleration in activity, which is positive for the USD. If the indicator falls below the forecast, and especially if it is below 50, the USD may weaken sharply in the short term. Previous PMI values: 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5, 52.2, 57.0, 59.2 in the manufacturing sector. Composite 45.0, 46.4, 48.2, 49.5, 44.6, 47.7, 52.3, 53.6, 56.0; In the services sector 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6. The level of market impact of this S&P Global report (preliminary release) is high. However, it is still lower than the similar report from ISM (American Institute for Supply Management). The outlook for January is 46.1, 44.7 and 44.5, respectively. The level of influence on the markets (pre-release) is high. New Zealand. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Q4) Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. Rising prices cause the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation, and conversely, when inflation declines or there are signs of deflation (this is when the purchasing power of money increases and prices of goods and services fall), the central bank usually seeks to devalue the national currency by lowering interest rates in order to increase aggregate demand. This indicator (Consumer Price Index, CPI) is key to assess inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high reading is bullish for the NZD, while a low reading is bearish. Previous values: +2.2% (+7.2% annualized) in Q3, +1.7% (+7.3% annualized) in Q2, +1.8% (+6.9% annualized) in Q1 2022). Data better than forecast and previous values should reflect positively on NZD. Forecast for Q4: +2.4% (+7.1% YoY). The level of impact on the markets is high. Wednesday, January 25 Australia. CPI (Q4). Reserve Bank of Australia CPI, Core Inflation Trimmed mean (Q4) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a certain period. CPI is a key indicator to assess inflation and changes in purchasing habits. Assessment of the inflation rate is important for the central bank management in determining the parameters of current monetary policy. A figure below the forecast/previous value can provoke weakening of the AUD, as low inflation will force the RBA governors to pursue a soft monetary policy course. Conversely, rising inflation and high inflation will pressure the RBA to tighten its monetary policy, which is seen as positive for the currency in normal economic conditions. Previous values of the index: +1.8% (+7.3% annualized) in Q3, +1.8% (+6.1% annualized) in Q2 2022, +2.1% (+5.1% annualized) in Q1 2022, +1.3% (+3, 5% annualized) in Q4, +0.8% (+3.0% annualized) in Q3, +0.8% (+3.8% annualized) in Q2, +0.6% (+1.1% annualized) in Q1 2021. Forecast for Q4 2022: +1.7% (+7.2% annualized). The level of impact on markets is high. The RBA Core Inflation - Trimmed mean - (for Q4) Released by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It captures the movement of retail prices of goods and services, which are included in the consumer basket. The simple truncated average method takes into account the weighted average core, the central 70% of the index components. Previous index values: +1.8% (+6.1% annualized) in Q3, +1.5% (+4.9% annualized) in Q2 2022, +1.4% (+3.7% annualized) in Q1 2022, +1.0% (+2, 6% annualized) in Q4, +0.7% (+2.1% annualized) in Q3, +0.5% (+1.6% annualized) in Q2, +0.3% (+1.1% annualized) in Q1 2021. Forecast for Q4 2022: +1.9% (+6.7% annualized). The level of impact on the markets is high. Canada. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada. The interest rate level is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Investors look at most other economic indicators only to predict how rates will change in the future. The country's inflation rate has accelerated to a near 40-year high (in February 2022, Canadian consumer prices rose 5.7% year-over-year after rising 5.1% in January to a 30-year high, in May to 7.7%, and already 8.1% in June). This is the highest rate since early 1983! The Bank of Canada estimates that the neutral interest rate level, at which it neither stimulates nor slows economic activity, is 2.5%. The current interest rate level is 4.25%. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise interest rates again at this meeting, most likely by 0.25%. In an accompanying statement, Bank of Canada policymakers will explain the decision and possibly share plans for the monetary policy outlook. The tough tone of this statement will cause the Canadian dollar to strengthen. A more softer tone may provoke weakening of the CAD. The level of impact on the markets is high. Canada. Bank of Canada Press Conference The press conference consists of 2 parts - first the prepared statement is read out and then the conference is open to questions from the press. This is one of the main methods the Bank of Canada uses to communicate with market participants about monetary policy, also giving hints about future monetary policy. It elaborates on the factors that have influenced the bank's interest rate management decision. During the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will explain the bank's position and give an assessment of the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of his speech is firm on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, the CAD will strengthen in the foreign exchange market. If Macklem argues in favor of monetary policy easing, the CAD is likely to decline. In any case, during his speech high volatility in the CAD is expected. The level of influence on the markets is high. Thursday, January 26 US. Annual GDP for Q4 (Preliminary Estimate). Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE Price Index). Unemployment claims. Durable goods orders. Orders of capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) The GDP is a key indicator of the US economy. Along with labor market and inflation data, GDP data are crucial for the US central bank in determining its monetary policy. A strong result strengthens the U.S. dollar; a weak GDP report negatively affects the dollar. There are 3 versions of GDP released at monthly intervals - Preliminary, Revised, and Final. Preliminary release is the earliest and it has the biggest impact on the market. The Final release has less impact, especially if it coincides with the forecast. Previous values for the index (annualized) are: +3.2%, -0.6%, -1.6%, +6.9%, +2.3%, +6.7%, +6.3% (Q1 2021). Forecast for Q4 2022 (preliminary estimate): +2.8%. The level of impact on markets (pre-release) is high. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (or Core PCE) is the primary measure of inflation which Fed FOMC officials use as the primary indicator of inflation. The level of inflation (in addition to labor market and GDP conditions) is important to the Fed when setting its monetary policy parameters. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates. Price index (PCE) values that are higher than forecasted could push the U.S. dollar up, as this would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's outlook, and vice versa. Previous values are +4.7% (Q3), +4.7% (Q2 2022), +5.2% (Q1 2022), 5.0% (Q4 2021), +4.6% (Q3), +6.1% (Q2), +2.7% (Q1 2021). Forecast for Q4 2022 (preliminary estimate): +5.3%. The level of impact on markets (preliminary release) is high. Also at the same time, the U.S. Labor Department will release its weekly report on the state of the U.S. labor market with data on the number of initial and continued jobless claims. The labor market condition (together with GDP and inflation data) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining its monetary policy parameters. A result above expectations and a rise in the indicator suggests weakness in the labor market, which negatively affects the U.S. dollar. A fall in the indicator and its low value is a sign of labor market recovery and can have a short-term positive impact on the USD. The initial and continued Unemployment Claims are expected to remain at pre-pandemic lows, which is also a positive sign for the USD, indicating a stabilization of the US labor market. Previous (weekly) values for initial jobless claims data: 190,000, 205,000, 206,000, 223,000, 216,000, 214,000, 231,000, 226,000, 241,000, 223,000, 226,000, 217,000, 214,000, 226,000, 216,000, 219,000, 190,000, 209,000, 208,000, 218,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000. Previous (weekly) values on unemployment reapplication data: 1647k, 1634k, 1694k, 1718k, 1669k, 1678k, 1670k, 1609k, 1551k, 1503k, 1494k, 1438k, 1383k, 1364k, 1365k, 1346k, 1376k, 1401k, 1401k, 1437k, 1412k. The level of influence on the markets - from medium to high. Orders for durable goods. Orders for capital goods (excluding defense and airvraft) Durable goods are defined as hard products with an expected life of more than 3 years, such as cars, computers, appliances, and airplanes, and imply large investments in their production. This leading indicator measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods placed with manufacturers. Growing orders for this category of goods signal that manufacturers will increase activity as orders are filled. Capital goods are durable goods used to produce durable goods and services. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the U.S. economy are not included in this indicator. A high reading strengthens the USD, while a low reading is negative for the USD. A low reading is also negative for the USD, while a high reading is positive for the USD. Previous Durable Goods Orders Indicator: -2.1% in November 2022, +0.7%, +0.3%, +0.2%, -0.1%, +2.2% in June, +0.8% in May, +0.4% in April, +0.6% in March, -1.7% in February, +1.6% in January. Previous values for the "capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft" indicator: +0.2% in November 2022, +0.3% in October, -0.8% in September, +0.8% in August, +0.3% in July, +0.9% in June, +0.6% in May, +0.3% in April, +1.1% in March, -0.3% in February, +1.3% in January. Forecast for December: +2.5% and 0%, respectively. The level of impact on the markets is high. Friday, January 27 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE Core Price Index) The annual core price index PCE (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is the main inflation indicator used by Fed FOMC officials as the main indicator of inflation. The level of inflation (in addition to labor market and GDP conditions) is important to the Fed when setting its monetary policy parameters. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates. Core Price Index (PCE) values above the forecast could push the U.S. dollar up, as this would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed's outlook, and vice versa. Previous values: +4.7% (annualized), +5.0%, +5.1%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% (in January 2022). Forecast for January: +0.2% (+4.6% annualized). The level of influence on the markets is medium to high. U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (final release) This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the overall economic activity. It also reflects American consumers' confidence in the country's economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth while a low reading indicates stagnation. Generally speaking, a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the USD in the short term. An increase in the indicator would strengthen the USD. The previous indicator values: 59.7, 56.8, 59.9, 58.6, 58.2, 51.5, 50.0, 58.4, 65.2, 59.4, 62.8, 67.2 in January 2022. Forecast for January: 64.6 (preliminary estimate 64.6 with a forecast of 61.6). The level of impact on markets (final release) is medium   Relevance up to 12:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332879
The AUD/USD Pair May Witness Further Grinding

The Bullish Outlook For The AUD/USD Pair Will Depend Solely On The US Dollar

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.01.2023 15:21
The AUD/USD pair has come under heavy pressure this week, following the release of the Australian labor market report. The release unexpectedly came out in the red zone, and the aussie made a new weekly low, sliding to 0.6876. However, we can say by the end of the week the bears couldn't take their successes, on Friday, the aussie regained some of the lost ground and got back to the 69th figure area. I note that the main "test" for the Aussie is yet to come – key data on inflation growth in Australia in the 4th quarter of 2022 will be published next week. If this report disappoints the AUD/USD bulls, then the implementation of bullish ambitions will have to wait: further growth of the pair will be possible only due to the weakening of the greenback. But today, all is not lost for bulls, although the "Australian Nonfarm" has significantly spoiled the fundamental background for aud/usd. Aussie lost an rally It should be noted that the Australian labor market has been a staunch ally of the aussie over the past few months. The unemployment rate gradually decreased during the first half of last year, and since June it has fluctuated in the range of 3.4% -3.5% (for comparison, we can say that the peak was recorded in October 2021 at around 5.2%). The growth rate of the number of employed has recently shown a positive trend (October and November should be especially noted in this context). Given the trends of recent months, no "trick" was expected from the December report: experts predicted a decrease in unemployment and an increase in the number of employed. However, the published release was, to put it mildly, controversial, and it is not at all surprising that the market interpreted it against the aussie. Traders focused their attention on the fact that unemployment remained at 3.5%, while according to forecasts, it should have fallen to 3.4%. The proportion of the economically active population unexpectedly dropped to 66.6% (although an upward trend was observed over the past three months). But most of all, the indicator of the increase in the number of employees was disappointing: the indicator came out at -14,600, despite the fact that experts expected to see a 27,000 increase. However, one point needs to be clarified here. The structure of this component indicates that in December the level of part-time employment significantly decreased (-32.200). While the number of full-time employees increased by 17,600, it is known that full-time positions offer a higher level of wages and a higher level of social security, compared to temporary part-time jobs. And yet, the "overall result" was against the aussie (especially since the 17,000th increase in full employment did not impress investors). Australian Nonfarm put a lot of pressure on AUD/USD. Bulls were forced to retreat from the key resistance level of 0.7000. All is not lost yet As a result of the trading week, bulls still managed to return to the area of the 69th figure. Therefore, the 0.7000 price barrier is still on the horizon. The inflation report, which will be published in Australia next week, can play a decisive role here. According to preliminary forecasts, the consumer price index in the 4th quarter will come out at around 1.8% in quarterly terms (in the 3rd and 2nd quarters, an increase of 1.8% was recorded). While in annual terms, an increasing trend can be recorded - experts predict growth to a record 7.5%. If both components of the release come out in the green zone, the Australian dollar paired with the US currency will again try to gain a foothold in the area of the 70th figure. Let me remind you that the Reserve Bank of Australia slowed down the pace of rate hikes to 25 points last fall - earlier than many central banks of the world's leading countries. Therefore, this issue was removed from the agenda a few months ago. However, in December, there were rumors on the market that the RBA might even pause in tightening monetary policy. And although representatives of the Australian central bank have repeatedly denied such intentions, the relevant rumors do not subside. And if inflation indicators in Australia show a downward trend next week, talk of a "dovish character" will again be on the agenda, especially against the backdrop of weak "Australian Nonfarm". Findings Despite the disappointing data in the labor market, it is still too early to write off the Australian dollar. A strong inflation report may well bring the aussie back to life, especially against the backdrop of a weakening greenback. If Australian inflation disappoints, then the bullish outlook for AUD/USD will depend solely on the US dollar. Given the high degree of uncertainty, before the release of the above-mentioned inflation report (Wednesday, January 25) for the pair, it is advisable to take a wait-and-see attitude.   Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332913
Fed Officials Continue To Highlight The Need For Further Rate Hikes

Fed Officials Continue To Highlight The Need For Further Rate Hikes

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.01.2023 12:34
Growing uncertainty has caused US equities to fall, with all three major indices down a full percentage point. Meanwhile, gold rose strongly and almost gained as much as 1.5%. The move came after reports emerged that the US already reached the debt ceiling set by the Congress. According to the data, it now exceeds $ 31 trillion, which is likely to force Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take "extraordinary measures", such as not paying all of the country's bills. It will also prompt Yellen to send a letter to the Congressional leadership, following the one she already sent last January 13, when she urged the Congress to act immediately in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States. Despite this, Fed officials continue to highlight the need for further rate hikes as it is a key tool to address and lower the current rate of inflation. The bank has announced its plan to raise the benchmark rate above 5% even though recent data indicates that inflationary pressures may have peaked. Markets are becoming increasingly concerned because previously, the political administration has been slow to act, either postponing a solution or only proposing to raise the debt ceiling. Persistently high inflation can only make the problem worse Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332875
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

A Bearish Correction Of Gold Could Occur In The Next Few Hours

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.01.2023 08:09
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,931.20. We can see that it is trading near the high reached before the close of yesterday's American session. The high reached for now is around 1,935.08, the level last seen on April 25, 2022. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is very overbought. The +2/8 Murray line located at 1,937.50 represents a strong technical reversal and as long as it continues trading below this level, gold is expected to fall. Risk aversion dominates equity markets helping XAU/USD extend gains towards weekly highs. Investors view gold as a safe haven asset amid the deteriorating global economy. Geopolitical risks are also likely to remain elevated for the second year in a row, encouraging investors to take refuge. The charts of the XAUUSD pair show that a bearish correction could occur in the next few hours. The eagle indicator on the daily chart and on the 4-hour chart shows overbought levels. Hence, investors are likely to take profit and this could favor a technical correction for the next few days. Given that since January 13 gold is trading around the 1,900 -1,935 area, a technical correction is likely to occur because the market is showing signs of exhaustion. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,931 with targets at 1,912 (21 SMA) and 1,900   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309384
The Outlook Of The GBP/USD Currency Pair

The GBP/USD Pair Does Not Show The Prospects Of Development

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.01.2023 08:04
The British pound has not yet succumbed to the pressure of stocks. The U.S. S&P 500 was down 0.76% yesterday, the British FTSE100 -1.07%. Asian stocks are trading mixed this morning. UK retail sales data for December will be released today with forecast at 0.5% versus -0.4% in November. The overlap of the decline is 0.1%, which is good amid the collapse of US retail sales (-1.1%), only the pound's strength against the stock market pressure may be running out, so the data should still be better than the forecast for a strong growth. From a technical point of view, the pressure on the price is also increasing - the Marlin oscillator shows the intention to turn down with the prospect of forming a divergence, and it hasn't crossed the linear resistance of 1.2410. There is a 60% probability of a reversal. On the four-hour chart, the price slowed down before 1.2410, the Marlin oscillator follows the price, it does not show the prospects of development. As a consequence, fundamental factors are coming to the forefront. We're waiting for reports and monitoring the price's reaction to it. The first clear sign of the reversal will be the price crossing the MACD line, which is near the highs of the 1.2280 on August 1 and 10.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332816
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange Was Red For All Indices

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.01.2023 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.76%, the S&P 500 fell 0.76%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.96%. Dow Jones UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 8.12 points or 1.71% to close at 484.36. Quotes Merck & Company Inc rose by 1.11 points (1.02%), ending trading at 109.90. Chevron Corp rose 1.77 points or 1.00% to close at 179.00. The least gainers were Home Depot Inc, which shed 12.81 points or 3.96% to end the session at 310.88. 3M Company was up 3.52% or 4.32 points to close at 118.43, while American Express Company was down 2.37% or 3.57 points to close at 146. 85. S&P 500 Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Comerica Inc, which rose 5.91% to 69.84, M&T Bank Corp, which gained 5.49% to close at 153.81, and shares of Truist Financial Corp, which rose 4.31% to end the session at 47.71. The least gainers were Enphase Energy Inc, which shed 10.92% to close at 222.97. Shares of SolarEdge Technologies Inc lost 10.32% to end the session at 286.72. Quotes Northern Trust Corporation fell in price by 8.60% to 90.46. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd, which rose 76.19% to hit 2.22, Salarius Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 52.99% to close at 3.58, and also shares of Cuentas Inc, which rose 40.48% to end the session at 0.59. The least gainers were Jupiter Wellness Inc, which shed 38.81% to close at 0.62. Shares of Aceragen Inc lost 33.33% and ended the session at 5.76. Quotes of SurModics Inc decreased in price by 29.35% to 26.38. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1842) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1204), while quotes of 91 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,337 stocks fell, 1,353 rose, and 190 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.88% to 20.52. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 1.41%, or 26.90, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 1.22%, or 0.97, to $80.77 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.51%, or 1.28, to $86.26 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.38% to 1.08, while USD/JPY fell 0.38% to hit 128.38. Futures on the USD index fell 0.28% to 101.82   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309378
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

Rosenberg Was Quite Optimistic About The Outlook For Gold In 2023

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.01.2023 12:02
Rosenberg Research founder and chief economist David Rosenberg said investment demand for gold could push prices to historic highs in 2023, most likely above $2,000, if the US economy falls into recession. He said in an exclusive interview that when it comes to the state of the economy this year, the only questions investors should be asking themselves are: how severe will the impending recession be and how should they protect their wealth? Rosenberg was quite optimistic about gold in his 2023 outlook report, explaining that this is because he sees dollar and the Fed's monetary policy peaking this year. He also mentioned that even though inflation has fallen sharply from its 2022 summer high, it remains consistently high. And since the Fed is set on bringing down this figure to 2%, it is likely that response to other growing economic weaknesses will be slow. Rosenberg added that the Fed will not cut interest rates quickly because it does not want a new threat to inflation. Most likely, it will raise interest rates next month and then hold them until recessionary conditions become too difficult to ignore. Rates will be cut only in the second half of the year Read next: Elon Musk Is Facing Trial In Fraud Trial Over 2018 Tweets| FXMAG.COM Regarding market pricing, Rosenberg said investors should take the central bank's forecasts with a considerable amount of skepticism. He also believes that the recession could last more than six quarters, the longest one since the 1980s. Rosenberg used the US housing market as one example of an impending economic downturn, noting that the house price bubble is bigger than it was before the 2008 financial crisis. He also said that the Federal Reserve may not provide much help during the impending recession, so consumers should not expect any fiscal stimulus   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332751
The Downward Part Of The GBP/USD Trend Has Started To Take Shape

The Downward Part Of The GBP/USD Trend Has Started To Take Shape

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.01.2023 08:59
The wave markup for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears rather complex, but it doesn't call for any explanations and starts to diverge dramatically from the markup of the euro/dollar instrument. Our five-wave ascending trend section has the form a-b-c-d-e and is most likely already finished. Since there was a very active departure of quotes from previously established highs between December 15 and January 6, there is a much greater likelihood that the British pound will finish the upward segment of the trend. As a result, I can say that the downward part of the trend has started to take shape and will include at least three waves. And as part of this segment of the trend, which can take both a five-wave and a five-wave impulse, the increase in the instrument's quotes over the past several days may be wave b. However, the drop in the British pound should continue because there has only been one downward wave created thus far, and it has not been in the strongest or most compelling form. There is no limit to how many times or how long the rising phase of the trend can become more convoluted, but this is not a typical occurrence. I continue to attempt to expand upon the conventional wave structures, which can be utilized for both work and prediction. The UK's inflation rate has remained unchanged. On Wednesday, the pound/dollar exchange rate increased by 60 basis points. The pound could have increased the price much further, but in the afternoon, the quotes started to decline from the day's high points. The preservation of the current wave marking is essentially at stake with this departure. The marking of wave b will change, and the entire upward segment of the trend will assume an even more complex shape if the instrument's increase persists today or tomorrow. While this hasn't happened, I'm hoping for a decrease in quotes given this week's major British news events that have already transpired. But because there is no background news on Thursday and Friday, the market sentiment might not shift. When compared to November, there were no appreciable changes in the UK's inflation data for December. From 10.7% y/y to 10.5% y/y, the consumer price index slowed. Core inflation stayed the same at 6.3%, indicating no change at all. As a result, the decrease in inflation proved to be official. A 0.2% slowdown is almost equivalent to no slowing at all. The market quickly deduced that even after the Bank of England rate increased to 3.5%, inflation was still rising and that we could expect an increase in early February of at least 50 basis points. This conclusion led to an increase in demand for the British pound yesterday. Now that this aspect has been taken into account, the demand for the pound can gradually decline. Conclusions in general The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. At this point, sales with objectives at the level of 1.1508, or 50.0% by Fibonacci, might be taken into consideration by the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator. The upward portion of the trend is probably over, however, it might yet take a longer form than it does right now. However, you must exercise caution while making sales because the pound has a significant tendency to rise. The euro/dollar instrument and the picture seem extremely similar at the larger wave scale, which is fortunate because both instruments should move similarly. Currently, the upward correction portion of the trend is almost finished (or has already been completed). If this is the case, a downward portion will likely be built for at least three waves, with the possibility of a drop in the region of figure 15   Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-20 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332715
The Euro To US Dollar Instrument Did Not Change In Value

The Euro To US Dollar Instrument Did Not Change In Value

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.01.2023 08:26
The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart is still quite compelling and getting more intricate, and the entire upward segment of the trend is still quite convoluted. Although its length is better suited for the pulse portion, it has taken on a powerful corrective and extended form. The waves a-b-c-d-e have been combined into a complicated corrective structure, with wave e having a form that is far more complex than the other waves. Since the peak of wave e is substantially higher than the peak of wave C, if the wave markings are accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished. I'm still planning for a decline in the instrument because we are predicted to build at least three waves down in this scenario. The demand for the euro currency was increasing again in the first week of 2023, and the instrument was only able to deviate somewhat from its prior highs during this time. A new attempt to surpass 1.0721, which according to Fibonacci amounts to 200.0%, was successful, allowing the wave e to take on an even longer form. Unfortunately, there is another delay in starting to build the trend correction part. The Eurozone's inflation rate dropped to 9.2%. Despite having a high amplitude throughout the day on Wednesday, the euro/dollar instrument did not change in value. Just like that, demand for the euro rose in the morning while demand for the dollar rose in the afternoon. Two motions in separate directions that were almost identical were received. Since wave e is still under construction, it cannot be said to be finished. Since the data for the same month of December had already informed the markets of a decline to 9.2%, many experts did not pay the report on European inflation the proper attention. The final evaluation and the original one agreed. However, this report continues to be crucial in my opinion, which is why. Because central banks "dance" on inflation, it is currently a top concern in many countries around the world. Therefore, it is irrelevant whether it is the first or second assessment. The most important development is that inflation has begun to fall and is doing so swiftly. Perhaps Andrew Bailey and Christine Lagarde were correct when they predicted that lower energy prices would lead to lower inflation (which we are now seeing). Similar remarks were made by the ECB president at the same time last year. Since the ECB won't need to hike rates in increments of 75 or 50 basis points anymore, I think that over time, the European Union's declining inflation rate will start to put pressure on the euro. But as of now, inflation is still too high, so a slowdown in the rate of interest rate hikes is out of the question. Even if the consumer price index experiences a new, significant slowdown the next month, I believe the plans to increase the rate in the European Union by another 100-125 basis points will stand. However, the ECB might then decide to tighten by 25 points. Conclusions in general I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The market will be ready to finish the wave e when a bid to break through the 1.0950 level fails. The wave marking of the descending trend segment notably becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this portion is complete, work on the downward trend segment can start.   Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-20 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332711
The ECB Has No Other Options But To Keep Tightening The Monetary Policy

The Euro Closed The Day With Growth Of Only 5 Points

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.01.2023 08:03
The U.S. S&P 500 stock index collapsed 1.56% on Wednesday, pulling down counter-dollar currencies and curtailing risk appetites. The reason was the strong decline in U.S. retail sales. In the December estimate, sales were down 1.1%; a revision to the November estimate lowered the figure from -0.6% to -1.0%. The yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds fell from 3.61% to 3.43%. This is an important moment as it shows that investors are starting to withdraw from risky instruments. If our assumption is correct, then the stock market will be the driver of the dollar's strength in the future. The euro was able to gain 100 points yesterday, but closed the day with growth of only 5 points. It stopped falling at the upper limit of the target range at 1.0758/87. Now the divergence, marked by the blue line on the daily chart, can be considered as completed. After the price leaves under the lower limit of the range (1.0758), the target 1.0660 will become available. Yesterday, on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator made a false breakout into the positive area (ascending trend area), quickly returned to the negative territory, and now the oscillator helps the price cross the 1.0758/87 range and together with it the MACD indicator line. In case it succeeds, the price will be stimulated to reach the first target   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-20 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332699
Thank Of Metaverse Seoul - A Virtual Replica Of Its Capital, South Korea Is Leader Of Blockchain Technology Adoption

Thank Of Metaverse Seoul - A Virtual Replica Of Seul, South Korea Is Leader Of Blockchain Technology Adoption

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.01.2023 11:49
South Korea continues to be at the forefront of blockchain technology adoption and integration as it launches a virtual replica of its capital, Seoul, which is the first phase of a project dubbed as Metaverse Seoul. The project is reportedly the world's first publicly available meta-universe platform supported by the city. In a press release announcing the project, Metaverse Seoul is described as a three-part project that is expected to be completed in 2026. In the first phase, Metaverse Seoul will focus on improving the efficiency of public administration services and will allow citizens to use personal avatars to explore the platform and access various services such as citizenship confirmation, tax advice, mentoring for young people and a support center for stranded businesses. The second phase, which is expected to be launched in 2024, will expand the services available, including real estate advice and connecting foreign investors with local businesses. The third and last phase will focus on integrating virtual and augmented reality technologies to manage the city's infrastructure. There are also plans to introduce blockchain technology, including cryptocurrency   Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332620
BoJ Core CPI Has Now Accelerated And Challenging The Bank Of Japan’s Stance

The Bank Of Japan Has Made It Clear That It Does Not Intend To Abandon The Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.01.2023 09:17
The dollar-yen pair soared by more than 350 points during the Asian session on Wednesday, reacting to the results of the January meeting of the Bank of Japan. If yesterday the pair fixed a low at 128.02, at the moment, the price has peaked at 131.60. Traders are playing back the "dovish" results of the January meeting of the members of the Japanese regulator. Expected "sensation" On the one hand, nothing sensational happened today. The previous rhetoric of the head of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, was clearly dovish: he did not get tired of repeating that the December decision to expand the allowable range of fluctuations in the yield of ten-year government bonds does not indicate a reversal of the monetary rate of the central bank. Therefore, it would be surprising if he changed his position and supported the next steps to normalize monetary policy at the January meeting. On the other hand, traders, contrary to Kuroda's dovish assurances, still bet (judging by the behavior of the yen) that the Bank of Japan would make further adjustments to the policy of controlling the yield curve or completely abandon it. Note that the yield of Japanese government bonds on Monday again exceeded the new target yield range, reaching 0.51%. But in the end, the conservatism of the consistent "dove" Kuroda won. The Japanese central bank has made it clear that it does not intend to abandon the ultra-loose monetary policy, which it has adhered to for years. The regulator kept the parameters of the monetary policy and worsened the forecast for the growth of the Japanese economy. The short-term interest rate on deposits of commercial banks with the central bank was left at -0.1% per annum, the target yield on ten-year government bonds is near zero. No changes were made to the yield range. Also, there are no changes in the central bank's outlook on interest rates. Disappointing (for the yen) macroeconomic forecasts The Bank of Japan's quarterly outlook report said the country's economy is likely to recover weakly "as the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and supply constraints ease." At the same time, price growth is expected to "narrow by the middle of the next fiscal year" (in Japan, the fiscal year, as you know, is set from April 1 to March 31). According to the central bank's economists, prices may deviate to the downside "because wage growth will not increase as expected." Inflation is estimated to be around 3% this fiscal year and decline to 1.6% next year. In addition, the Bank of Japan worsened its forecast for the country's GDP growth in the current fiscal year from the previously expected 2%. Arguing for its decision, the central bank pointed to a slowdown in economic growth abroad and high prices for raw materials. The regulator also worsened its forecasts for the next fiscal year (2023): economy is estimated to grow by 1.7% against the previous estimate of 1.9%. Summing up all of the above, in the "bottom line," we have the following situation: 1) the Bank of Japan has retained the range within which the yield of 10-year government bonds can fluctuate (+/- 0.5%); 2) allowed (predicted) a slowdown in inflation in the second half of 2023; 3) worsened the forecast for the growth of the country's economy—both in the current fiscal year and next. It's too early to write off the yen The announced results of the January meeting a priori do not imply tightening monetary policy. And yet, it is not worth writing off the Japanese currency. Moreover, it is risky since many market participants surely desires to make money on the upward dynamics of USD/JPY. This is a rather risky venture as the upward momentum may fade by medium-term, and the pair will turn downward again. First, in just three months—in April of this year—Kuroda will leave his post after 10 years in office. Despite the actual inaction of the central bank at the January meeting, the pressure from the market will not disappear anywhere, and will only increase over time. While the likely successors of Haruhiko Kuroda at least allow for a scenario in which the central bank will take further steps to normalize the monetary policy. Secondly, the yen may be supported by inflation, which, apparently, is not going to slow down in Japan. On Friday, January 20, key inflation data for December will be published. According to preliminary forecasts, the general consumer price index will show an increase in inflation by 4.0%. If the indicator comes out, at least at the forecast level, it will be a new high for the last 41 years. The CPI excluding fresh food prices should also show positive dynamics (expected to rise to 4.1%), as well as the consumer price index excluding food and energy prices (this indicator should rise to 3.0%). Recall that the corporate goods price index published the day before yesterday (which measures the prices of goods purchased by Japanese corporations) rose in December by 10.2% year-on-year, exceeding the average market forecast of growth by 9.5%. If the inflation figures comes out, at least at the forecast level (not to mention the "green zone") on Friday, the yen may again begin to enjoy increased demand, despite the "dovish" results of the January meeting. Conclusions Thus, at the moment, it is best to take a wait-and-see position for the USD/JPY pair, watching the price move upwards. As the upward impulse fades, short positions can be considered with the first target at 128.70 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart) and 127.25 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe)   Relevance up to 07:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332590
The EUR/USD Pair May Announce A New Bullish Momentum

There Is A Clear Need To Stimulate Demand For The EU Currency (EUR)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.01.2023 09:01
The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart is still quite compelling and getting more intricate, and the entire upward segment of the trend is still quite convoluted. Although its length is better suited for the pulse portion, it has taken on a powerful corrective and extended form. The waves a-b-c-d-e have been combined into a complicated corrective structure, with wave e having a form that is far more complex than the other waves. Since the peak of wave e is substantially higher than the peak of wave C, if the wave markings are accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished. I'm still planning for a decline in the instrument because we are predicted to build at least three waves down in this scenario. The demand for the euro currency increased throughout the first two weeks of the year, and during this time the instrument was only able to modestly deviate from previously established levels. A further attempt to surpass the 1.0721 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci ratio, was successful, allowing the wave e to grow even longer. Unfortunately, there is another delay in starting to build the trend correction part. The euro may be supported by rate divergence up until the ECB meeting. On Tuesday, the euro/dollar instrument had a 30 basis point decline. As a result of how small these price increases are, the current wave markup hardly changes at all. However, since the instrument's present motions are more horizontal in type and the news background is essentially nonexistent, I am unable to compare them to the instrument's current movements. Only the German inflation report might have been of interest to market players yesterday. The market was aware of the expected value because the second estimate was identical to the first. The decrease in the euro in the afternoon can be attributed to the German inflation report from the morning, but how can you account for the euro's rise in the morning? I think that the current news context shouldn't be used to explain the fluctuations of the euro. Other aspects form the basis of the market. Since the ECB is 90% likely to hike rates by 50 basis points in February and the Fed by 25, the market has already determined, in my opinion, that there is a clear need to stimulate demand for the EU currency. As a result, for the first time in a long time, the difference between the ECB and Fed interest rates will be decreasing rather than widening. This element may encourage strong demand for the euro. If this is the case, then the response to the ECB rate hike in two weeks is already being seen. This factor may already be coming into play on the day of the European regulator's meeting, and we will observe a decline in the instrument. This decline may coincide with the completion of wave e, which has already taken on an overly extended form. If my assumption is correct, then wave 5-e is being built now. This means that the increase could break off at any time. Conclusions in general I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted Fibonacci level of 0.9994 (323.6%). The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The market will be ready to finish the wave e when a bid to break through the 1.0950 level fails. The wave marking of the descending trend segment notably becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this portion is complete, work on the downward trend segment can start   Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332580
Gold Has A Chance For The Rejection Of The Support

Gold Is Showing A Clear Signal To Sell

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.01.2023 08:19
Early in the European session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the 21 SMA, below the downtrend channel formed since January 16. According to the 4-hour chart, gold is trading under bearish pressure. As long as it trades below 1,910 (21 SMA), it is expected to fall and reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,885. Gold is likely to trade below 1,910, so it is a clear signal to sell, with targets at 1,885 and 1,875 (8/8 Murray). The latest H-4 candlesticks show that gold is about to have a strong technical correction in the coming days. The key will be to wait for the XAU/USD pair to fall below the 21 SMA (1,910) and +1/8 Murray located at 1,906. In case this scenario comes true, it is likely that gold will fall to the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,884 and could even reach 8/8 Murray at 1,875. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is very overbought. Hence, this is a sign that as long as it trades below 1,910, it could be used as a selling opportunity. On the contrary, if gold breaks and consolidates above 1,911, the bullish cycle is expected to resume and the metal could reach 1,925 (weekly resistance) and even +2/8 Murray at 1,937. If gold remains trading below 1,910, any bounce will be seen as a selling opportunity and we could expect a decline to support levels of 1,828, that is where the 200 EMA is located. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell while the XAU/USD pair trades below 1910, with targets at the psychological level of 1,900, and 1,875. The eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal which supports our bearish strategy   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309025
The Potential For A Bullish Turn Of The EUR/USD Pair Remains High

The EUR/USD Pair Is Shifting Into A Downtrend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.01.2023 08:06
Yesterday, the euro closed the day lower, with an attempt to enter the target range of 1.0758/87. Trading volumes were slightly above the average. This does not mean that big players have already closed their long positions, but it suggests that their partial repositioning is likely. There is still a probability of forming an updated price divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. But with the signal line of the oscillator moving below the zero line, and once the price settles under 1.0758, this probability will be neutralized. The nearest target is 1.0660, followed by 1.0595. The MACD line is approaching 1.0595, accordingly, crossing this support will be the key point in breaking the uptrend. The price has formed a standard divergence with the oscillator. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin has settled in the area of the downtrend, the price has settled under the balance indicator line (red sliding), indicating a shift into a downtrend. Moving the price under the lower limit of the support range of 1.0758/87, where the MACD line is approaching, will inspire the bears to cross the lower supports as well   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332566
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.01.2023 08:00
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.14%, the S&P 500 fell 0.20%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.14%. Dow Jones McDonald's Corporation was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.22 points or 1.94% to close at 274.11. Chevron Corp rose 2.93 points or 1.65% to close at 180.49. Apple Inc rose 1.18 points or 0.88% to close at 135.94. The least gainers were Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which shed 24.08 points or 6.44% to end the session at 349.92. The Travelers Companies Inc (NYSE:TRV) was up 4.60% or 8.92 points to close at 185.00 while Verizon Communications Inc was down 2.41% or 1.01 points. and finished trading at 40.85. S&P 500  Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 7.43% to 131.49, Morgan Stanley, which gained 5.91% to close at 97.08, and NVIDIA Corporation, which rose 4.75% to end the session at 177.02. The least gainers were Emerson Electric Company, which shed 6.82% to close at 91.24. Shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc lost 6.44% to end the session at 349.92. Mohawk Industries Inc lost 6.30% to 111.18. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Celyad SA, which rose 137.80% to hit 1.90, Calyxt Inc, which gained 90.25% to close at 0.35, and Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 63.11% to end the session at 1.99. Shares of Viveve Medical Inc were the least gainers, losing 70.54% to close at 0.26. Shares of Edesa Biotech Inc lost 42.06% to end the session at 1.46. Quotes of Angion Biomedica Corp fell in price by 30.88% to 0.70. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,579) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,484), while quotes of 99 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1960 companies rose in price, 1775 fell, and 168 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.67% to 19.36. Gold Gold futures for February delivery lost 0.53%, or 10.25, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 1.42%, or 1.14, to $81.25 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 2.56%, or 2.16, to $86.62 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.23% to 1.08, while USD/JPY fell 0.28% to hit 128.18. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.18% to 102.13 Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309013
Chinese Have Enough Money To Temper Recession, Tesla’s Record Profit

In 2023 There Will Be Conditions For Economic Growth In China

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.01.2023 14:25
The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains ambiguous. On the one hand, the dollar is under pressure amid growing confidence in the slowdown of the Fed rate hike to 25 points. On the other hand, traders need additional information impulse for the upward movement. The pair consolidated within the 8th figure (for the first time since last April), but to conquer the 9th price level, not to mention the 10th figure, they need a powerful informational trigger. Chinese anti-records Experts pinned certain hopes on China, which today published key data on its economic growth. However, these hopes were not justified. The data turned out to be negative, but for the most part they came out in the green zone. Neither the dollar nor the euro were the beneficiaries of today's release. In terms of figures, the situation is as follows. China's GDP grew 3.0% last year, down from 8.4% in 2021. If we exclude the 2.2% growth after the first blow of the coronavirus crisis in 2020, this is the worst performance since 1976. Clearly, this result reflected the effects of the "zero tolerance" policy on COVID, which Beijing abandoned only at the end of last year. A sharp 180-degree turn suggests that in 2023 there will be conditions for economic growth in China. In addition, according to The Wall Street Journal, the Chinese authorities have significantly eased pressure on technology companies, relaxed strict regulation of real estate and recently lifted the ban on coal imports from Australia (which was in effect for more than two years). However, another question remains regarding the overall global demand for Chinese goods, given the global economic slowdown and the threat of recession in the world's largest economies. In addition, another alarming signal was published today: it became known that the population of the People's Republic of China decreased last year for the first time in more than 60 years. According to a number of analysts, this is a historic shift, which in the future will have long-term consequences for both the Chinese and the global economy. According to data, Chinese population decreased by 850,000 people last year to 1.41 billion. The reverse side of a coin However, despite the set anti-records, the safe dollar could not benefit from the situation, including in pair with the euro. Several factors acted as a counterbalance. First, almost all the components of today's release came out in the green zone. China's fourth-quarter GDP beat forecasts despite growth at the slowest pace since the 1970s, with China's economy expanding 2.9% (slowing down from 3.9% growth in the third quarter), while the consensus forecast was 1.8%. As mentioned above, in 2022, the Chinese economy grew by 3.0%, while the forecast was at 2.7%. Other indicators are also green: for example, retail sales in December fell by 1.8%, while experts were more pessimistic in their estimates, expecting a decline of 9.5%. In turn, the volume of industrial production grew by 1.3% (in annual terms), with a weak growth forecast of 0.5%. The official unemployment rate fell to 5.5% (forecast was 5.8%). The second support factor that somewhat smoothed over the negative emotions on the market from today's release was the fact that Beijing still abandoned the frankly destructive policy of zero-COVID policy. Thus, contradictory signals from China could not tip the scales—neither in the direction of buyers nor in the direction of sellers of EUR/USD. Moreover, some support for the euro is provided by the ECB representatives, who voiced hawkish comments. In particular, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said in an interview with the Financial Times that "interest rates should be much higher than they are now." Earlier similar messages were voiced by other representatives of the European regulator, in particular Martins Kazaks, Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Olli Rehn and Francois Villeroy de Galhau. Conclusions The pair is holding within the 8th figure, against the background of the general weakness of the greenback and the 90% probability of the implementation of the 25-point scenario at the February meeting of the Fed. The hawkish comments of the ECB only fuel interest in buying EUR/USD, but do not allow the pair's bulls to organize a large-scale counterattack. In my opinion, short positions on the pair are too risky and fundamentally unreasonable. Whereas it is advisable to consider longs only after overcoming the 1.0860 resistance level, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe. It is likely that the price turbulence (which may not be in favor of the dollar) will be provoked by representatives of the Fed, many of whom will voice their position in the second half of the week. The market is expecting speeches by Lorie Logan, Susan Collins, Lael Brainard, Patrick Harker, Christopher Waller and John Williams. Perhaps they will shift the balance of power towards EUR/USD buyers. However, in the current, rather shaky situation, it is best to take a wait-and-see attitude Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332508
Bitcoin Is In A Continuous Upward Trend For 17 Days Straight

Bitcoin Is In A Continuous Upward Trend For 17 Days Straight

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.01.2023 12:50
Bitcoin paused its bullish run near the $21k level due to a significant increase in bearish volumes. Sellers have maintained strong pressure on the asset's price for the third day in a row, but so far, without success. Buyers manage to keep BTC/USD quotes above $21k. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin tested the $20.5k–$20.8k area three times over the past three days, which may indicate its likely breakdown in the near future. The confident positions of buyers may allow the cryptocurrency to continue its upward movement to the levels of $21.5k–$22k. CryptoQuant analysts believe that not all institutional investors share the general euphoria. The company's experts came to the conclusion that a significant part of large investors expect an increase in BTC trading volumes in order to return to the market. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to update the historical maximum of mining difficulty. The indicator rose by 10.3% and exceeded the mark of 270 EH/s. Keeping the price above $20k makes the economic situation easier for mining firms, but the high cost of energy resources may encourage companies to sell BTC at a bargain price. Read next:Alibaba And Its Share Buyback Program Which Is Supported By Ryan Cohen, Microsoft Corp. Plans To Incorporate AI Tools| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin and the stock market The activation of trading activity is also observed in the stock market, where the main assets show strong growth. The market's flagship index, the S&P 500 Index, maintains correlation with Bitcoin and updates local highs. Most likely, the current dynamics of the stock market price movement will continue, as Goldman Sachs reports on the active closing of short positions. After many months of falling, such movements of investors look like an adaptation to new realities. And this means that after several large liquidations, the belief in a bullish trend has strengthened. This means that we should soon expect a local correction or a change in trend towards local low. BTC/USD Analysis Bitcoin has been holding positions near the $21k level for the third day in a row. Also, the cryptocurrency is in a continuous upward trend for 17 days straight. BBG experts note that the relative strength index on the daily timeframe has reached the zone of a two-year extreme zone. This confirms our conclusion that Bitcoin is locally overbought. Despite this, buying volumes remain at a high level, and the unsuccessful attempts of the bears to push the price below $21k are clear evidence of this. At the same time, note that the price slowed down the upward movement and faced large sales volumes. First of all, this is due to the achievement of the key zone, from where the BTC price began to decline towards the local bottom due to the collapse of FTX. Also, do not forget that the index of fear and greed has just begun to grow in the direction of greed, and there is a large layer of bears on the market, ready to open short positions. The market has been acting in a certain way for almost 10 months, and one massive bull rally is not going to change things quickly. On the daily timeframe, the formation of the bullish "cup-and-handle" pattern is being completed. The price completes the "handle" element, after which it can be argued that Bitcoin is able to reach the $28k level following the results of the current bull run. At the same time, the technical metrics of the cryptocurrency remain in the overbought zone, but are increasingly turning in the flat direction. This is due to the growing pressure of sellers, as well as overbought cryptocurrency. Results Bitcoin confidently holds positions near the $21k level, which allows betting on further growth of the asset's price. Given the overheating and other third-party factors, a correction will catch up with Bitcoin near the $21.5k–$22k level. The corrective movement may start earlier, and the market should be ready for a new plunge below $20k. The current growth has provoked the appearance of a large number of orders below $20k, and therefore we should expect a further drop in price to at least $18k.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332498
Eurozone sentiment continues to improve

The European Central Bank Have Provided Support For The EUR/USD Pair And The Euro

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.01.2023 12:05
The US currency is working hard to stay afloat and not slide to the lowest levels. Nevertheless, the greenback occasionally slumps, unwittingly giving a chance to the euro. The latter willingly uses this opportunity and tries to rise as much as possible, having accumulated a certain amount of growth. Analysis The greenback started the week lower, hitting a 7-month low against other currencies, but stabilized later on. On Monday evening, January 16, EUR/USD soared to a new 9-month high of 1.0874 but then pulled back to the critical 1.0816 mark. As a result, the pair lost 0.16%, but started recovering by the next trading session. On Tuesday morning, January 17, EUR/USD traded in the range of 1.0829-1.0830, having partly recouped its earlier losses. The technical situation According to analysts' estimates, the technical situation has stabilized slightly. At a certain moment, the pair reached the highest level since April 2022, but then retreated to the lower limit of the current range. This is because risk appetite has decreased, which supports the dollar and is a "headwind" preventing the euro's growth. Disappointing US macro data, published last week, contributed to the dollar's downfall. Recall that in December 2022, US consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2.5 years. This had a significant impact on the greenback, as aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes were the key driver of its growth (by 8%) in 2022. EUR/USD The US currency is gradually recovering from a seven-month low. This puts significant pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Traders and investors are worried about the economic problems triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, as well as the protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This increases fears about the global economic downturn and restrains optimism in the markets. In such a situation, experts record a massive outflow of capital to USD as a safe asset. This limits the euro's growth and worsens its future prospects. US inflation  On the bright side, US inflation is gradually easing, which recently reached its highs in the last 40 years. Against this background, investors expect the Fed to pause rate hikes. In addition, market participants believe that interest rates will not be raised immediately, but gradually and by a certain amount. Most economists (91%) expect a 25bp hike and only 9% expect a 50bp hike. The Fed would soften its hawkish stance According to experts, a significant recovery of the dollar is still elusive. Market participants used to be confident that the Fed would soften its hawkish stance after seeing signs of continued easing of inflation pressures. However, assumptions that the central bank is close to ending its rate hikes were not justified. At the moment, it will probably continue to raise rates, but may slow the pace of rate hikes (only by 25 basis points in February). According to economists at Deutsche Bank, most of the current factors are in favor of a continued decline in the greenback and a relative stabilization of the euro. A combination of China's economic reset after the removal of covid restrictions and an improving energy situation in the EU have set the USD back. In addition, recent hawkish statements from the European Central Bank have provided support for EUR/USD and the euro. At the same time, there is growing confidence in the markets that inflation in the US will peak, so EUR/USD could rise to 1.1500 in 2023 and the dollar could remain in a downtrend Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-20 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332491
The Tokyo Core CPI Reading Is Adding Pressure On The Bank Of Japan

The USD/JPY Pair Can Fall Sharply Ahead Of The Results Of The BOJ Meeting

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.01.2023 10:59
USD/JPY traders are feeling nervous. The Bank of Japan will sum up the results of its 2-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Now any surprise from the BOJ could have a significant effect. The culminating event of the week in the currency market should be the Japanese central bank's monetary policy meeting, which kicked off on Tuesday. With inflationary pressures intensifying in Japan and chaos reigning in the local bond market, many investors believe that the BOJ could announce a major policy shift this week, like it did last month. Recall that the BOJ tweaked its Yield Curve Control policy (YCC) in December, causing the yen to rise sharply against the dollar. Since then the pair has fallen over 6% and its future prospects are not bright at all. Investors clearly see that the BOJ is in a difficult predicament. Its decision to widen its tolerance range for 10-year bond yields was dictated by a desire to improve market functioning, as the bond market faced a liquidity problem. But the measure has made the situation even worse. By changing the YCC, the BOJ stoked the flames of market speculation about its possible surrender. This in turn provoked a massive sell-off in 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), which pushed their yields up. Since last week, the central bank has been trying its best to keep the index within the new limits by conducting daily emergency operations to buy JGBs. However the yield of 10-year JGBs is still growing above the set ceiling. That's what leads investors to think that the BOJ will be forced to further increase the permissible range of long-term bond yield fluctuations from its 0% target at the January meeting. If the BOJ makes such a decision again, it will serve as a great catalyst for the yen. In the short term, the USD/JPY risks falling below its 7-month low at 127.22. An even greater threat to the pair is the development of a radical scenario, which implies a complete abandonment of the BOJ's YCC policy. If the central bank decides to burn all bridges, USD/JPY will go into a prolonged free-fall. "The 10-year JGB yield could rise as high as 1% if the BOJ abandons yield curve control this week," according to estimates by Daiwa Securities strategist Eiichiro Tani. This negatively affects the movement of the pair. According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the next YCC correction will help the yen strengthen against the dollar by more than 3%, to the level of 125, and an abandonment of the YCC will open a fast way to even higher levels for the Japanese currency. It's worth noting that US bank analysts don't even consider the latter scenario. Most of Goldman Sachs' analysts expect the BOJ to keep YCC in place with possible further tweaks to improve its sustainability. Financial analyst Barbara Rockefeller is of the same opinion. She believes that we should not expect the BOJ to take impulsive actions in the form of abandoning the YCC or a sharp change in the monetary course. "Allowing a giant move from 25 bp to 1% in under a month is too wild for any central bank, let alone the staid BoJ. So, abandonment is almost certainly out of the question, but that doesn't mean the market will not be expecting it and testing prices, forcing the bank to buy more bonds. We expect a whole lot of backroom arm twisting," Rockefeller said. According to ING economists, the USD/JPY pair can fall sharply ahead of the results of the BOJ meeting. They suspect USD/JPY can trade down to 126.50 before Wednesday. As for the dynamics of the dollar-yen asset after summing up the results of the BOJ meeting, everything depends on the market's reaction to the rhetoric of the Japanese officials. If it is considered hawkish, the quote will fall, as I mentioned before. If the central bank stays true to its dovish principles, in the short-term, the pair may show a steady recovery from the recent lows. By the way, this scenario is followed by all economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg. Experts expect the BOJ to refrain from any changes at its January meeting. But the probability they are wrong is quite high, because last month none of the 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was able to predict YCC changes   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-20 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332473
Forex: What can we expect from Euro against US dollar - January 17th

Forex: What can we expect from Euro against US dollar - January 17th

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.01.2023 08:43
As we expected in yesterday's review, due to the US holiday, the euro moved sideways, confirming the consolidation above the target range of 1.0758/87. But over the past 24 hours important nuances appeared, while the main idea of the price breakdown of t1.0990 is preserved.     Our traditional Marlin oscillator still has the potential to form a renewed flat divergence, which is marked with a dotted line, and the so-called slow Marlin managed to form a traditional divergence, which increases the probability of a price reversal from the current levels. This will be confirmed once the price crosses the lower limit of the support range at 1.0758/87. Crossing yesterday's high at 1.0874 will push the pair to rise towards the target at 1.0990.     On the four-hour chart, under the pressure of a double divergence, the signal line went under the zero line, into the area of the downtrend. Now the price will be under pressure in the short-term. On the current chart, we see that crossing the lower limit of the range at 1.0758 coincides with crossing the MACD indicator line, and this will enhance the signal for further downward movement. We wait for the development of events. Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332441
Bitcoin Is Trading In A Extremely Overbought Conditions

Price Of Bitcoin Has Already Broken Out Of The Bearish Channel

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.01.2023 14:23
Blue lines- bearish channel Red lines- horizontal resistance levels Yellow lines- overbought RSI Bitcoin is trading around $20,000-$21,000 price level after the break out and above the short-term trading range it was in for the last few months. Our minimum bounce target after the break out, was the November high around $21,400 pre FTX scandal sell off. Price is now challenging this horizontal resistance level. Price has already broken out of the bearish channel it was in for the last 13 months. Similar to 2019-2020 price is challenging key horizontal resistance and the RSI has reached oversold levels near 90. A pull back and a new higher high would be a very bullish signal. Our minimum expectations are for price to retrace the entire decline. After a break above the resistance at $21,400, we should expect Bitcoin to reach $27,800 where we find the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline. The 38% retracement is at $35,800 and should follow if bulls break above $27,800. Read next:USD/JPY Pair Is Trading Above 128 Again, The Testimony Of Bank Of England Governor Andrew Bailey May Have Affect On The Pound (GBP/USD)| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308769
Hedge Funds Have Continued To Invest In Gold, The Bullish Position Of Silver Is Holding

Optimism Forced Investors To Actively Buy U.S. Stocks, Gold And Silver

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.01.2023 14:17
Market participants continue to react to the bullish market sentiment created by the CPI report, which was released on Thursday last week. Inflation was 6.5% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive month that inflation has declined from a peak of 9.1% in June. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, after a 0.1% increase in November, consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) fell by 0.1% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. And the all items index, before seasonal adjustment, increased by 6.5% for the year. Core CPI inflation (excluding food and energy costs) rose 5.7% YoY, up 0.3% from the previous month. Although inflationary pressures have eased, the core consumer price index is still about three times the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. At the same time, optimism forced investors to actively buy U.S. stocks, gold, and silver. However, they did not base market sentiment on recent Fed statements. The caveat is that the Federal Reserve has repeatedly reaffirmed its unwavering determination to keep interest rates high throughout 2023. Many analysts believe that the Fed is bluffing because current rates are not sustainable throughout the year. Others feel that their vows to be transparent simply no longer exists. U.S. equities, gold, and silver have benefited from this sentiment, leading to a strong rally in gold and silver, as well as moderate gains in major stock indices. Dow added 0.33%: S&P 500 added 0.40%: and the NASDAQ Composite Index added 0.70%: Gold up $24.20: Silver up $0.41: If the Fed continues on its course of tightening, it could lead to one of the biggest Fed blunders in recent history. The Fed's days of data dependency only seem to matter when the data supports their assumptions   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332378
The U.S. Dollar Remains The Biggest Risk For Gold

The Change In Expectations For The Fed's Aggressive Monetary Policy Remains The Biggest Bullish Factor For Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.01.2023 14:11
Despite the fact that the precious metal can be considered overbought, market sentiment suggests that prices will rise in the near future. The first weekly review of gold shows that sentiment from both Wall Street analysts and Main Street investors is overwhelmingly bullish, with many analysts suggesting it is only a matter of time before reaching the $2,000 an ounce target. "There is a gravitational pull to $2,000 and will only build as prices continue to move higher," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. While momentum favors higher prices, analysts advise investors not to chase the market. Streible believes that gold will rise and plans to buy from the pullback. Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, said he is also bullish on gold but advised investors not to buy at current levels. Last week, 18 Wall Street analysts took part in the gold survey. Among the participants, 11 analysts, or 61%, were bullish in the short term. At the same time, three analysts, or 17%, are bearish, and four analysts, or 22%, believe prices are trading sideways. Meanwhile, 825 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 524 respondents, or 64%, expected gold prices to rise this week. Another 190 voters, or 23%, said the price would go down, and 111 voters, or 13%, were neutral. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading Above 128 Again, The Testimony Of Bank Of England Governor Andrew Bailey May Have Affect On The Pound (GBP/USD)| FXMAG.COM   Some analysts say the change in expectations for the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy remains the biggest bullish factor for gold. Those analysts say that lower inflationary pressures have given the Federal Reserve room to further slow its pace of rate hikes next month, with bond yields and the U.S. dollar somewhat reversing last year's massive upward trend. Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said the momentum of the U.S. dollar is turning bearish as market expectations change. He added that while gold could reach excessive levels, it still has upside potential. According to Grady, the bond market will decline and that is beneficial for gold. However, not all analysts are convinced that gold will be able to maintain the current momentum. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that despite his optimism for gold, there are growing risks of price consolidation at current levels. And Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he is neutral on gold in the near term. Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332376
The First Outlook Of The Day Of The USD/JPY Pair Situation

Traders Ignore Kuroda's Dovish Statements, The January Meeting Of The Bank Of Japan May Not Be In Favor Of The Yen

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.01.2023 12:13
At the start of the new trading week, the dollar-yen pair updated its multi-month price low, reaching 127.25. The pair was last in this price area in May last year. The yen is strengthening ahead of the Bank of Japan's January meeting, which will be held the day after tomorrow, January 18. Traders ignore Kuroda Rumors that the Japanese regulator will continue to move towards monetary policy normalization are supporting the national currency. In my opinion, Bank of Japan is really on the threshold of cardinal changes, but these changes will probably take place not in January but in the spring of this year, when a new leader will take over the helm of the Japanese central bank to replace the consistent "dove" Haruhiko Kuroda. All of his potential successors are delivering rather hawkish messages, while Kuroda himself maintains a dovish attitude. Therefore, one should not expect any sensations from the January meeting: the current head of the central bank will most likely repeat the previously announced messages about commitment to accommodative policy. Nevertheless, the yen continues to strengthen its position, despite Kuroda's soft comments. The USD/JPY pair has been within the downward trend since October last year, when the Japanese authorities re-conducted a currency intervention. Then a series of events followed in favor of the development of a bearish scenario: first, the dollar weakened throughout the market (against the background of slowing inflation in the U.S. and rumors of a slowdown in the Fed rate hike), and then the Bank of Japan unexpectedly doubled the yield ceiling on 10-year bonds. According to a number of experts, the central bank has taken only the first step towards normalizing monetary policy. And although Haruhiko Kuroda, as they say, "directly" refuted this assumption (stating that this decision was due to "market-technical reasons"), traders, apparently, are betting that the regulator will further weaken its policy of control over the yield curve in the future or even abandon it altogether. The market is increasingly talking about the possible implementation of such a scenario. Recall that yield curve control was one of the key factors behind the 12% devaluation of the Japanese currency against the dollar. And after the Bank of Japan expanded the range of yield tolerance from the target level in December, the yen strengthened by more than six percent. It is noteworthy that traders ignore Kuroda's dovish statements, who not only refutes hawkish intentions, but also expresses readiness for further steps to ease monetary policy. Despite such announcements, there is growing confidence in the market that the Bank of Japan will announce further adjustment to the yield curve management procedure or even abandoning it in the coming months. Some analysts suggest that this will happen as early as Wednesday, following the results of the January meeting. Read next: Lowering The Price Of Electric Vehicles Is Supposed To Be Tesla's Unusual Strategy To Generate Demand In The US Market| FXMAG.COM Downward outlook for USD/JPY In my opinion, market expectations are too high, so the results of the January meeting of members of the Japanese regulator may not be in favor of the yen. But the trading principle "buy on rumors, sell on facts" is now playing on the side of the USD/JPY bears: during the Asian session on Monday, the yen was in high demand. Setting aside intraday price fluctuations, we can assume that the pair retains the potential for further decline, both in the medium and long term. First, don't forget about the weakening dollar. The latest CPI growth report, which reflected a slowdown in U.S. inflation, put pressure on the greenback. The probability of a 25-point rate hike at the Fed's February meeting rose to 93%. In addition, the market again started talking about the fact that the Fed may end the cycle of raising interest rates ahead of schedule, and its final level will be below the aanounced level of 5.1%. Secondly, the yen will only strengthen its position in the near future, even if the outcome of the Bank of Japan's January meeting is not in its favor. In just 3.5 months, Haruhiko Kuroda will leave his post, while his likely successors, in one form or another, say that the Japanese regulator may have to make the next steps towards normalization of monetary policy. In particular, former Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Takehiko Nakao said he supports a smooth departure from the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy. Another contender, Columbia University professor Takatoshi Ito, voiced a similar position. Technical picture of the pair The technical picture also speaks about the priority of the downward scenario: on the daily chart, the pair continues to be on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which shows a bearish Parade of Lines signal. Considering medium-term and long-term trading, it is advisable to use corrective bursts to open short positions to the first support level at 127.25 (the price low of the current year) and 126.50 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart).   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332370
Bitcoin Has A Potential For The Breakout Play

The Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Started Monday With Local Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.01.2023 11:06
Based on the results of the previous trading week, it is safe to say that Bitcoin has completed a period of consolidation that lasted more than a month. As a result, the cryptocurrency resumed its upward movement and reached the $21k level. At the same time, it is important to take into account the fundamental difference between the current upward trend, which is expressed in growing trading volumes. After a long pause, large buyers again enter the cryptocurrency market, which favorably affects the capitalization of Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency market comes back to life For 16 days in 2023, the main digital asset won back all the fall in November 2022. Many analysts see it as the end of a bearish trend and the final formation of a local bottom around $15.6k. Quantitative analyst PlanB expressed similar conclusions, while institutional experts expect another stage of BTC price decline. According to network activity data provided by Santiment, large investors resumed buying Bitcoin in early January. As of January 16, whales hold more than 23.5% of the total supply of cryptocurrencies, which is equivalent to 4.57 million BTC coins. CryptoQuant analysts also note a significant net inflow of Bitcoins to crypto exchanges of 4,200 BTC worth $80.3 million. The renewed flows of coins to the exchanges may indicate the normalization of market sentiment and a pullback to normal after the collapse of FTX. At the same time, there is also a negative context, because BTC transfers to exchanges may indicate growing speculative sentiment. In the medium term, this may negatively affect the market and increase manipulative price movements. However, a much more significant factor for the transfer of BTC coins to exchanges may be the desire of investors to fix local profits or break even. Near the $16k level, more than 50% of BTC coins were at a loss, and this figure decreased significantly when the price of Bitcoin reached the $21k level. Read next: The Swedish Real Estate Market Will See Significant Price Drops| FXMAG.COM BTC/USD Analysis Having consolidated above the $20k key psychological level, Bitcoin ended the trading week with a consolidation near $21k. There was no local decline in trading activity over the weekend, which allowed the asset to test the $21.2k level. Subsequently, the bears managed to defend the line and go on a local and successful counterattack. BTC ended Sunday with a slight decline, but a long lower wick indicated the activation of buyers. As a result, the bulls picked up the price near the $20.5k level and resumed their upward movement. The cryptocurrency started Monday with local growth and absorption of the remaining bearish volumes. The price has tested the $21.2k–$21.4k area for the second time, but selling pressure remains as the price is near a two-month high. The technical metrics of Bitcoin are still in the overbought zone but gradually acquiring a flat direction. Stochastic is moving near the level of 95, and the RSI index is 87. To avoid increased volatility and a protracted correction, BTC needs a local correction and consolidation near $20k. Results Bitcoin continues its upward movement, but there is every reason to believe that the current week will be the last within the local bullish trend. The first signals of the transfer of coins to the exchanges indicate a wave of fixation to breakeven/minimum profit. At a minimum, miners will want to lock in local profits to cover running costs. Most likely, Bitcoin will be able to reach the $22.4k–$22.8k area before bear pressure intensifies. With a price correction (necessary), the key task for buyers will be to hold the $20k level. Bitcoin performed well in the attack and once again prompted talk of the end of the bearish trend. However, it is important to take into account the factor of the first mass activation of buyers, which provoked a local overheating of the market. To confirm the end of the bearish trend and the start of the capitalization recovery stage, the asset needs to hold the $20k level, which is key for further growth.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332360
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

The Positive Close In The New York Stock Exchange, All Indices Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.01.2023 08:00
Also on Friday, the largest US banks published their financial results for the fourth quarter and all of last year. The net profit of all four banking giants decreased in 2022. In this regard, shares of Wells Fargo are depreciating by 3.8%, Bank of America - by 2.8%, JP Morgan - by 1.3%, Citigroup - by 0.8%. At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.33% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index rose 0.40%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.71%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which gained 3.52 points or 2.52% to close at 143.01. Quotes of Caterpillar Inc rose by 3.39 points (1.33%), closing the session at 258.46. Apple Inc rose 1.33 points or 1.00% to close at 134.74. The least gainers were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), which shed 6.10 points or 1.23% to end the session at 489.57. Shares of Intel Corporation rose 0.18 points (0.59%) to close at 30.11, while Walt Disney Company shed 0.41 points (0.41%) to close at 99. 40. S&P 500  Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Illumina Inc, which rose 3.80% to 201.11, Wells Fargo & Company, which gained 3.25% to close at 44.22, and also shares of Stanley Black & Decker Inc, which rose 3.06% to end the session at 88.91. The least gainers were Northrop Grumman Corporation, which shed 5.44% to close at 461.43. Shares of Ford Motor Company lost 5.29% to end the session at 12.72. Quotes of General Motors Company decreased in price by 4.75% to 36.51. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were iPower Inc, which rose 50.42% to hit 0.77, Moxian Inc, which gained 45.21% to close at 1.51, and shares SmileDirectClub Inc, which rose 46.77% to end the session at 0.70. The least gainers were Catalyst Biosciences Inc, which shed 32.69% to close at 0.26. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc shed 30.15% to end the session at 3.66. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 21.52% to 4.12. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1848) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1178), while quotes of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2343 companies rose in price, 1320 fell, and 185 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.55% to 18.35, hitting a new 52-week low. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 1.25%, or 23.75, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 2.03%, or 1.59, to $79.98 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.64%, or 1.38, to $85.41 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.12% to 1.08, while USD/JPY fell 1.06% to hit 127.85. Futures on the USD index fell 0.10% to 101.89.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308651
Fed Officials Continue To Highlight The Need For Further Rate Hikes

The Fed's Unclear Stance Is why Investors Are Holding Back In The Markets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.01.2023 10:27
The latest inflation data in the US prompted a rally on Thursday, but it did not lead to a strong rise in stock indices. This is because market players remain worried of the Fed's monetary policy, which continues to be tight and is likely to end with interest rates above 5% this year. The report showed that consumer inflation continued to slow down in the US, with the year-on-year figure falling to 6.5% and the month-over-month data declining to -0.1%. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did his best not to comment on the issue, some members of the bank showed hawkish rhetoric in their speeches, arguing for continued increases in interest rates. This is unclear stance is the reason why investors are holding back in markets. But there is another reason for the moderate market reaction, that is, the Q4 earnings reports from companies. Big US banks will release their data on this, which is likely to set the direction for markets. If they show good earnings and performance reports, yesterday's rally in the stock markets will continue, accompanied with a weakening of dollar. Of course, the uncertainty will remain in markets until the outcome of the Fed meeting on February 1. This means that until then, players will continue to debate on whether the Fed will go for a 0.25% rate hike and then pause or not. Forecasts for today: AUD/USD The pair is declining towards 0.6920. If this level holds, an attempt to rise to 0.7030 will happen. XAU/USD Gold tested the level of 1900.00 for the first time since May 2022. It could correct down to 1885.60, then return to 1915.80. Relevance up to 07:00 2023-01-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332206
Gold Reached Levels Of May 2022

Gold Reached Levels Of May 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.01.2023 08:23
Early in the European session, XAU/USD is trading around 1,896.24. We can see on the 4-hour chart that gold has reached extremely overbought levels which is likely to cause a technical correction towards the support zone of 1,881 (21 SMA) or towards the 8/8 Murray zone around 1,875 in the next few hours. Yesterday in the American session, gold accelerated its advance and reached levels of May 2022 at 1,901.48, after the publication of consumer inflation data from the United States. XAU/USD is currently trading below the psychological level of 1,900 and below the +1/8 Murray at 1,906 which acts as the next resistance, and seems determined to appreciate further. Investors expect the Fed to reduce its pace of tightening amid declining inflation and a strong labor market, with a 78% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in February. As a consequence, treasury bond yields have been declining in recent days, which has supported the strength of gold. In the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is in an overbought area. The likely scenario is that if there is a technical rebound towards 1,906, it could be seen as a signal to sell, with targets at 1,881 and 1,875. On the condition of a sharp break, a daily close below 1,875 (8/8 Murray), and a break of the rising wedge pattern, we could expect gold to start a technical correction cycle. The instrument could even reach 1,860 and could even fall towards the 200 EMA located at 1,812.  Trading plan Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,906, with targets at 1,882 and 1,875. The eagle indicator is in the extremely overbought zone which supports our bearish strategy.   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308496
The UK Economy Is Sputtering, GDP For November Outperformed With a 0.1% Gain

The UK GDP Data Is Likely To Show A Decrease

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.01.2023 08:20
Today, January 12, Thursday, the US dollar dropped significantly once more. Let me remind you that last Friday, reports on the unemployment rate, the labor market, and business activity were released in the United States for the first time in 2023. 223 thousand people were employed, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5%, and the ISM index unexpectedly went below the 50.0 level. Generally speaking, the only ISM index that is detrimental to the dollar is the one for the services sector. The remaining news is all favorable in my opinion, but the demand for the US dollar is still down significantly. The demand for the dollar was steady at the start of this week, but today data on inflation in the United States was released, which did not appear to startle the market but sparked a strong reaction. The market anticipated a decrease in the consumer price index of 6.5% y/y, which exactly happened. The market also anticipated a 5.7% y/y decline in the base index. There were no additional significant occurrences today. The demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased It turns out that although both results from the same report were almost exactly in line with predictions, the demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased, preventing both instruments from starting (or continuing) to build the correction portion of the trend. It is vital to note that the subsequent activities of central banks, in this case, the Fed, are more significant than inflation itself. Michelle Bowman, one of the FOMC's voting members, recently predicted that the rate will increase because inflation is still too high. At a Florida event, Bowman stated, "I believe we can cut inflation without a big economic slump as the jobless rate continues at its historic lows. Other FOMC members had previously argued for the continuation of monetary policy tightening. However, the market appears to be responding that all interest rate increases have already been fully absorbed by the US dollar's constantly declining demand. The rate is anticipated to climb to a maximum of 5.5% by the market, though it may be lower following today's inflation report The recession in the UK has reportedly already started It is important to keep in mind that the demand for the currency is supported by a tighter monetary policy. Therefore, as expectations for the rate decline, so does the demand for the currency. Therefore, from a wave perspective, I continue to anticipate the development of downward trend sections. Despite their significant length and complexity, the market indicates that it is willing to build upward segments. Only figures on British GDP, European and British industrial production, and the American University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index are available this week. The recession in the UK has reportedly already started, thus the most significant GDP data is likely to show a decrease. If this is the case, it would be difficult to predict that the GDP will increase over a single month. The MACD is indicating a "down" trend I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1.1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over, however, it might yet take a lengthier shape than it does right now. Relevance up to 16:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332164
The Euro May Gradually Climb To The Target Level

The EUR/USD Pair Is Expected To Move Upside

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.01.2023 08:10
Yesterday's US inflation data came out as forecasted. Despite a 0.3% y/y rise in the monthly core CPI, the index declined to 5.7% from the previous 6.0% y/y and the CPI was 6.5% y/y against the previous 7.1% y/y. The S&P 500 stock index was up 0.34%, the VIX volatility index, otherwise known as the risk index, was down 10.72%, and the yield on 5-year US government bonds fell from 3.66% to 3.53%. All this lifted the euro by more than 90 points so it is able to continue the upward movement. The target level is 1.0990, which is the Fibonacci reaction level (not the standard one) of 314% from the August 28-October 4 movement. Read next: The USD/JPY Pair Drop To 130, The Aussie Pair Keeps Trading Above 0.69$| FXMAG.COM There could also be a subsequent market reversal to a medium-term trend below parity, perhaps a reversal divergence will start to form from 1.0990. But for the time being, I expect EUR to rise until it grows tired of doing so. On the four-hour chart, a weak divergence is formed, which is a sign of forthcoming consolidation. Upon completion of the consolidation, I expect the pair to continue rising. The general trend on this chart is an uptrend.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-14 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332184
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

The British Pound (GBP) Will Not Strengthen In The Coming Days

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.01.2023 08:07
On Thursday, under overall market pressure, while the dollar index fell by 0.95%, the British pound rose by 62 points. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the limit of the ascending trend line - the risk of a downward reversal of the oscillator from the current values has increased. Several British macro data will be released today with all the indicators showing negative outlook; GDP for November is expected to fall by 0.2%, the trade balance might drop from -14.5 billion GBP to -14.9 billion GBP, November industrial production may show the decline of 0.2%, the construction sector production might contract by 0.3%. Even on such an indicator as the misuse of mortgages may worsen the quarterly index from -£5.1bn to -£7.9bn. As a result, I don't expect the British pound to strengthen in the coming days. In the best case, it may settle at the support of 1.2155 (low of May 13, high of November 24). In the future, in case the local trend for weakening the dollar continues, the pound can rise to the target level of 1.2410 (high on June 16). On the four-hour chart, as we expected in the previous review, the divergence has formed. But in the current environment, where markets had a strong bullish momentum yesterday with the release of the US inflation report, the divergence looks weak and might turn into a sideways swing. I expect the price consolidation to end and further developments next week.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-14 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332182
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

On The New York Stock Exchange The Dow Jones Rose 0.64% To Hit A Monthly High

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.01.2023 08:00
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.64% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index rose 0.34%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.64%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company, which gained 3.48 points or 3.61% to close at 99.81. Salesforce Inc rose 4.70 points or 3.24% to close at 149.60. Boeing Co rose 6.29 points or 3.02% to close at 214.32. Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 0.80 points (1.29%), ending the session at 61.21. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 1.24% or 0.46 points to close at 36.66, while Walmart Inc was down 0.90% or 1.32 points to close at 144. 81. S&P 500 The top gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were American Airlines Group, which gained 9.71% to 16.83, United Airlines Holdings Inc, which gained 7.52% to close at 51.30, and Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Class A shares, which gained 5.85% to close the session at 65.10. The least gainers were Charles River Laboratories, which shed 5.95% to close at 232.25. Bio-Techne Corp lost 5.14% to end the session at 82.17. Quotes of Illumina Inc decreased in price by 5.05% to 193.75. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Arrival Vault USA Inc, which rose 100.00% to hit 0.54, Akerna Corp, which gained 66.67% to close at 1.65, and also shares of Moxian Inc, which rose by 73.32%, ending the session at around 1.04. The leading gainers were Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 76.46% to close at 2.54. Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc lost 35.32% to end the session at 6.52. Quotes of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 25.30% to 0.90. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2353) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (733), while quotes of 91 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2633 companies rose in price, 1063 fell, and 181 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 10.72% to 18.83, hitting a new 6-month low. Read next: The USD/JPY Pair Drop To 130, The Aussie Pair Keeps Trading Above 0.69$| FXMAG.COM  Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 1.17%, or 22.05, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 1.20%, or 0.93, to $78.34 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.50%, or 1.24, to $83.91 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.91% to 1.09, while USD/JPY shed 2.43% to hit 129.24. Futures on the USD index fell 0.94% to 101.96.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-14 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308486
Eurozone sentiment continues to improve

The Members Of The European Central Bank Remain Hawkish So The ECB Will Raise Rates At The February Meeting By 50 Points

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.01.2023 10:50
The European Central Bank continues to demonstrate a hawkish attitude amid contradictory data on inflation growth in the eurozone. Last week, a report on the growth of the consumer price index was published. The overall CPI was in the red zone, falling to 9.2% (with a forecast decline to 9.6%). While core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, on the contrary, continued to gain momentum, rising to a record 5.2%. Energy prices  The structure of the report suggests that the growth of energy prices slowed down in December to almost 26%. While food, alcohol and tobacco rose in price by almost 14%, services increased in price by 4.4%, and industrial goods by 6.4% (in November – by 6.1%). This suggests that the decline in overall inflation is due to warm weather in the European region: the purchase price of gas in European countries in December was almost five times lower than in August. The cheapening of the blue fuel had an impact on electricity prices, as many European power plants produce electricity using gas. In particular, in France, the purchase price of electricity at the end of August exceeded €1,000 per megawatt-hour, and at the end of last month it dropped to €240. Germany also contributed to the slowdown in overall inflation: last month, German government provided a one-time compensation for electricity bills. The slowdown in the overall CPI In other words, the slowdown in the overall CPI was not due to the ECB but Mother Nature, which spoils the European region this year with warm days. The growth of the core consumer price index indicates that the problem of high inflation has not only not been resolved, but is getting worse. The ECB Hawkishness Representatives of the European Central Bank understand this very well, and therefore do not lower the degree of intensity in their rhetoric. Moreover, members of the ECB have been sounding clear hawkish signals lately. For example, Latvian central bank governor Martins Kazaks said that he expects a "significant" rate increase at the February and March meetings, after which the steps could become "less as necessary." We are talking about two 50-point rate hikes. The ECB could then slow the pace of monetary tightening to 25 bps. Isabel Schnabel ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel also called for further rate hikes this week, as "inflation will not subside on its own." In turn, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann said there are no signs of weakening market expectations regarding inflation at the moment. However, he added that rates would need to "raise significantly to reach levels sufficiently restrictive to ensure that inflation returns to the target level." His colleague, Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn, made a similar statement yesterday, saying that rates should be raised significantly "in the next couple of meetings" to keep inflation in check. The ECB will raise rates As you can see, the members of the European Central Bank remain hawkish, at least in the context of the next two meetings. However, they prefer not to specify where the final point of the current cycle of tightening monetary policy is. For example, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last week that it was desirable to peak interest rates by summer, "but it's too early to say at what level." At the same time, he stressed that rates will remain at the peak level "for as long as necessary." Thus, now we can say with confidence that the ECB will raise rates at the February meeting by 50 points and very likely by the same amount at the March meeting. This scenario is the base case despite a slowdown in overall inflation in the euro area. EUR/USD Meanwhile, the prospect of a 50-point Fed rate hike at the February meeting is highly questionable. For now, the CME FedWatch Tool says there is a 74 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike next month. If today's U.S. inflation report comes out at least at the predicted level (not to mention the red zone), the probability of the 25-point scenario will increase to 80%–90%. In this case, the difference in interest rates between the U.S. and Europe will continue to shrink, and this circumstance will provide background support to the euro. However, this fundamental factor will play on the side of the euro even before the actual implementation—the hawkish attitude of the ECB against the background of slowing inflation in the United States will allow buyers of EUR/USD to organize another offensive upward, to the borders of the 8th figure. Technically, the pair is currently testing the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to 1.0750. Overcoming this target will open the way not only to the next price barrier at 1.0800, but also to the main resistance level at 1.0930 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, coinciding with the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the W1 timeframe). A slowdown in U.S. inflation, a softening of the Fed's rhetoric, and an increase in the hawkish mood of the ECB will create the necessary information background for the implementation of the upward scenario.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-13 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332090
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

US CPI Could Favor The USD Which Could Exert Strong Pressure On Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.01.2023 08:19
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,884.24, close to the highs of 1,886.47 and with a strong bullish trend. It is likely that in the next few hours, gold will continue to rise and may reach the resistance zone around 1,895 and could reach the +1/8 Murray located at 1,906. According to the daily chart, we can see that the eagle indicator is showing strong overbought signs and it is likely that a technical correction will occur in the coming days. The key will be to wait for gold to trade below 1,875 (8/8 Murray), then there could be a decline towards 7/8 Murray located at 1,843. Investors are waiting for the inflation report to be published during the American session. Some believe that this report will be below expectations. If the annual CPI is above 6.5%, it could favor the US dollar which could exert strong pressure on gold. On the contrary, if the reading is below this level, we could expect gold to quickly reach the area of 1,900 and even rise to 1,937 (+2/8 Murray). In the next few hours, gold is likely to consolidate above 1,875 and below 1,887. Above 1,887, we could expect gold to reach the key zone of 1,900. Below 1,875 and 21 SMA, we can expect gold to drop and the price could reach 1,843 and could even decline to 1,812 (6/8 Murray).     Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Maintains A Steady Upward Trend, The Aussie Pair Keeps Close To 0.69| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308290
The Euro May Attempt To Resume An Upward Movement

The EUR/USD Pair Is Waiting For The US CPI Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.01.2023 08:15
The euro is set to master the target range of 1.0758-1.0787 this morning. According to our main scenario, I expect the formation of the price divergence with the Marlin oscillator and the euro's reversal to a medium-term decline. It is impossible to predict how high the price will still be able to grow in case the CPI falls, but from a purely technical perspective, a reversal can take place even from current levels, which indirectly implies CPI values are higher than forecasts. The forecast for December CPI is 6.5% y/y versus 7.1% y/y in November, while the forecast for the core index is 5.7% y/y versus 6.0% y/y. It is likely that this strong decline in inflation is causing traders to expect them with excessive optimism. The forecast for monthly inflation, or more precisely core CPI for December, is 0.3% versus 0.2% in November, with the overall monthly CPI forecast at 0.0% versus 0.1% a month earlier. In other words, the data could end up disappointing. Albeit not by much, but enough to keep investors from buying counter-dollar currencies. On the four-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator have a structure similar to the formation of a divergence. We have to wait for the US inflation report and make a decision according to the market behavior. The uptrend will break in case the price falls below 1.0660, that is, when it crosses the support of the MACD line.     Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-13 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332046
Asia Market: Disappointing Inflation Data From Australia

Inflation In Australia Is Moving In The Opposite Direction

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.01.2023 08:01
Australia's inflation report was released on Wednesday, which exceeded expectations of most experts. The consumer price index rose 7.3% in Q4 2022, with a forecast of 6.8% growth. Notably, in the third quarter, inflation showed signs of slowing (when the growth forecast was 7.4%, the indicator turned out to be at 6.9%). And in the fourth quarter analysts expected further development of this trend - but in fact the CPI returned to the level of the second quarter, thereby puzzling market participants. In addition, on Wednesday another equally important report was published in Australia, which reflected a significant increase in consumer activity. We are talking about retail sales, which rose by 1.4% month-on-month in November (with a modest forecast of 0.6%). This is the strongest growth rate since last March. For comparison, in the previous month the figure increased by only 0.4%. The data added to the fundamental picture for the pair, which is shaping up quite positively. The relevant news flow is mainly related to China, which abandoned its "zero-Covid" policy and resumed imports of coal from Australia. The reset in relations between Beijing and Canberra was appreciated by AUD/USD traders: in the first week and a half of 2023, the pair rose more than 200 pips to settle at the 69th figure area. Interest rate  Wednesday's inflation report, which is important in and of itself, also suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to "quietly" tighten monetary policy parameters. The RBA has cut the rate of interest rate hikes to 25 points since last October, but assures markets that it is not going to pause the tightening of monetary policy. The resumed growth of inflation in the fourth quarter suggests that the issue of a pause is now finally off the agenda (at least in the perspective of the next meetings). Following the December meeting, RBA head Philip Lowe said that the central bank does not pursue a pre-planned course: in his words, the size and timing of future rate hikes "will be determined by incoming data and the outlook for inflation and the labor market. Another noteworthy phrase from the head of the RBA is that the Board's priority remains restoring low inflation and getting inflation back into the 2-3% range over time. Inflation report is unlikely to prompt the RBA to be more aggressive As we can see, so far inflation in Australia is moving in the opposite direction. Therefore, the likelihood of any pause at this point is close to zero. On the other hand, the latest inflation report is unlikely to prompt the RBA to be more aggressive (in the context of a return to the 50-point rate). Most likely, the Australian central bank will continue to raise the rate in 25-point increments, without risking to increase the rate due to possible side effects (relevant concerns were repeatedly voiced by the RBA representatives). In other words, the aforementioned report will not lead to any "revolutionary" changes, despite its greenback color. At the same time, this release has reduced to zero the probability of a pause in the RBA rate hike. That's enough for the aussie to keep trying to climb back up to the 70s. But so far the bulls' attempts to get closer to the main price barrier at 0.7000 are failing. During the two days the pair's bulls were assaulting the intermediate resistance level at 0.6930 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), but each time they were back to their previous positions, to the base of the 69th figure. The reason for such indecisiveness is also caused by the inflationary report, only now it is the American one. US data Let me remind you that the US Consumer Price Index will be released at the beginning of the US session. According to most experts, the release will reflect a further slowdown in US inflation, reinforcing the discussion that the Fed may move to a 25-point rate hike. The likelihood of such a scenario materializing (at least in the context of the February meeting) has risen to 76% after last Friday's Nonfarm data. If inflation also disappoints traders, the probability of a 25-point rate hike in February will probably rise to 85-90%. The greenback will again come under pressure and bulls will have an excuse to make a march to the 70s. The alternative scenario But the alternative scenario (though unlikely, of course) is that inflation in the US will show growth contrary to what most experts predicted. In that case, the dollar bulls will assert themselves all over the market, especially in the light of the latest statements of the Fed representatives. Mary Daly and Raphael Bostick made some very hawkish remarks this week. Specifically, Daly said that the rate could be raised "by either 25 or 50 points" at the next meeting. Also, in her opinion, the final point of the current cycle would be in the 5.1%-5.25% range (that is, she was against lowering the upper bound). Bostick took a similar stance. Fed All this suggests that it is too early to write off the hawkishness of the Fed: if the inflation report surprises market participants with its greenback, the US currency will strengthen its position considerably. Again, this option is unlikely, but judging by the dynamics of the dollar pairs, traders do not risk to play against the greenback on the threshold of this release. AUD/USD Thus, at the moment the best option for the pair is to take a wait-and-see stand, because the key macro report of Thursday is hypothetically able to "redraw" the fundamental picture for all the dollar pairs.   Relevance up to 23:00 2023-01-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332040
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.01.2023 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was up 0.80%, the S&P 500 was up 1.28% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.76%. According to forecasts, annual inflation in the US slowed to 6.5% from 7.1% in November. Analysts note that the expected slowdown in inflation, coupled with an improvement in the situation in supply chains and an easing of covid restrictions in China, creates the basis for optimism in the markets. The publication of the consumer price index is expected on Thursday. Dow Jones The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading was Microsoft Corporation, which gained 6.92 points or 3.02% to close at 235.77. Quotes of Home Depot Inc rose by 8.37 points (2.61%), closing the auction at 329.00. Apple Inc rose 2.76 points or 2.11% to close at 133.49. The least gainers were shares of Verizon Communications Inc, which shed 0.77 points or 1.84% to end the session at 41.18. Salesforce Inc was up 1.72% or 2.54 points to close at 144.90, while Procter & Gamble Company was down 0.81% or 1.23 points to close at 150. .66.  S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc, which rose 6.53% to 461.17, Etsy Inc, which gained 6.11% to close at 134.69. as well as SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which rose 5.84% to close the session at 302.15. The least gainer was Teleflex Incorporated, which shed 7.60% to close at 239.77. Shares of DexCom Inc lost 4.26% and ended the session at 106.16. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 4.20% to 259.96. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which rose 276.12% to 10.08, Broadwind Energy Inc, which gained 96.90% to close at 4.45. as well as shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc, which rose 68.60% to close the session at 3.49. The least gainers were Tantech Holdings Ltd, which shed 28.10% to close at 2.20. Shares of American Virtual Cloud Technologies Inc lost 24.65% to end the session at 1.07. Quotes of Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 20.27% to 21.00. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,342) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (728), while quotes of 101 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2499 companies rose in price, 1223 fell, and 181 remained at the level of the previous close. Broadwind Energy Inc (NASDAQ:BWEN) rose to a 52-week high, up 96.90% or 2.19 points to end at 4.45. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 2.48% to 9/21. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 0.23%, or 4.35, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 3.30%, or 2.48, to $77.60 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 3.47%, or 2.78, to $82.88 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.21% to 1.08, while USD/JPY rose 0.14% to hit 132.43. Futures on the USD index fell 0.01% to 102.97.     Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-13 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308278
Trading Volumes In The Cryptocurrency Market Have Soared By 90%

Trading Volumes In The Cryptocurrency Market Have Soared By 90%

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.01.2023 14:29
The starting point of the thaw in the market can be considered the first of January, when Bitcoin began an upward movement. In 11 days, the cryptocurrency reached the $17.4k level and confidently consolidated above the $17k psychological level. Among the nearest targets of the asset are the levels of $17.8k and $18k. Despite the positive developments, the daily chart of the cryptocurrency shows an uncertain price growth at low volumes. A similar situation was observed in mid-December, when the cryptocurrency made a false breakout of the $18k level and began to decline. However, judging by the latest news, the current local upward trend differs from the price movement at the end of 2022. Trading volumes in the cryptocurrency market have soared by 90% over the past day. The indicator reached the usual levels in the region of $30–35 billion. Recall that during the period of protracted consolidation, the volumes did not exceed $10 billion. Another positive signal was another purchase of cryptocurrencies from large international companies. Google purchased large volumes of Solana at $10 and was one of the top 13 owners of the asset. In addition, Morgan Stanley began actively buying shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. As of January 11, the firm had invested more than $3.5 million in crypto assets. Gradually we move on to neutral news, namely the long-awaited speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the state of the market, we can conclude that the official was cautious in his remarks and did not provoke volatility spikes. Powell's key thesis was the acknowledgement that the global economy has become much more resilient. Read next: Pietro Beccari Will Be The Louis Vuitton’s CEO, Departures Several Top Executives At Rivian| FXMAG.COM This statement can be seen as a homage to the labor market and an effective inflation policy. The next key event for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market will be the publication of inflation reports. Data are expected on Thursday, and analysts predict a slowdown in inflation to 6.5% from the current positions at 7.1%. Given the established dynamics of slowing inflation, we can assume that the publication of financial statements is already included in the price of financial instruments. At the same time, the forecasts have become much bolder, which increases the likelihood of their fallacy. Also, we must not forget that Bitcoin is locally overheated, therefore Thursday can be the starting point of a local correction of the asset. BTC/USD Analysis The cryptocurrency has been in continuous upward movement since January 1, 2023. The asset successfully overcame the downward trend line and the 0.236 Fibo level. The next targets for the coin will be $17.8k–$18k. Bitcoin technical indicators are approaching the overbought zone, especially the stochastic, which broke through the 60 level. The RSI is also close to entering the overbought zone. At the same time, there is no increase in buying volumes on the daily chart, which may indicate the completion of the bullish impulse. A similar uncertain move can be seen on the daily chart of the S&P 500. One day, the asset forms the largest candle since the end of November, but subsequently loses to buyers near $4,000. Given this, it can be concluded that the SPX price movement is an impulse surge of trading activity or manipulation by a market maker. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Maintains A Steady Upward Trend, The Aussie Pair Keeps Close To 0.69| FXMAG.COM Results Bitcoin is gradually passing the peak point of the upward movement as buying volumes are falling. Support from the SPX index looks unconvincing, as does the on-chain activity of the cryptocurrency. Given these facts, the asset needs a new impetus for growth, or a local correction. The publication of inflation reports can be a key moment in determining the further dynamics of the price movement of Bitcoin. With a favorable outcome and an increase in buying volumes, the asset will go to the $17.8k–$18k area..     Relevance up to 11:00 2023-01-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331984
Hedge Funds Have Continued To Invest In Gold, The Bullish Position Of Silver Is Holding

The Uncertainty In Financial Markets Will Continue To Support The Attractiveness Of Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.01.2023 12:20
Gold rising beyond $1,850 at the start of the new year will create new momentum for the metal and attract new investors. Greg Harmon, founder and president of Dragonfly Capital Management, said he is optimistic about the long-term potential of gold as the uncertainty in financial markets will continue to support the attractiveness of the metal as a safe haven asset. There is also a shift in markets as bond yields continue to trade near their highest level in 12 years, holding support above 3.50%. As for how much gold an investor should have in their portfolio, Harmon said between 1% and 2% might be appropriate. He added that he does not see the metal as a hedge against inflation because its price is mainly determined by investor demand. Read next: Pietro Beccari Will Be The Louis Vuitton’s CEO, Departures Several Top Executives At Rivian| FXMAG.COM Alongside gold, Harmon said he also sees some potential in silver since its prices have risen significantly from October's two-year lows. And even though there is a strong resistance around $24 and $26, a rise above $30 will take the metal to historical highs. "Silver has a lot of momentum and we haven't seen it stop like gold," Harmon said. "If it goes up to $30, there's nothing to stop it from going higher."   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331966
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Appealed To Lawmakers To Use Their Regulatory Powers To Address Climate Change

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.01.2023 12:03
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell asked politicians to avoid interfering with the central bank, stressing it should be free from any influence as long as it struggles with persistently high inflation. Price stability is the backbone of a healthy economy He explained that stabilizing prices requires tough decisions that can be politically unpopular. "Price stability is the backbone of a healthy economy and, over time, brings immeasurable benefits to the population," Powell said. "But restoring it when inflation is high may require measures that are unpopular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy. The lack of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take the necessary measures without regard to short-term political factors," he added. Markets surprisingly took these statements calmly, perhaps because they did not provide any direct indication of where the Fed's policy was heading. Nevertheless, further increases are expected this year. Read next: Pietro Beccari Will Be The Louis Vuitton’s CEO, Departures Several Top Executives At Rivian| FXMAG.COM Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts criticized the observed round of rate hikes Powell has recently encountered strong opposition and criticism of his actions from both parties. Most recently, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts criticized the observed round of rate hikes, while President Joe Biden largely refrained from commenting on the Fed's actions, noting that the central bank is primarily responsible for fighting inflation. "Without clear legislation, it would be inappropriate for us to use our monetary policy" Although Powell repeatedly stated that political factors have not influenced his actions, it is clear that the pressure on the central bank is high as more and more politicians are talking about a return to a softer approach amid the first signs of slowing inflationary pressures. He also appealed for lawmakers to use their regulatory powers to address climate change, as well as asked major banks to check their financial preparedness in case of situations, such as hurricanes and floods. "Decisions on policies that directly address climate change should be made by the elected branches of government, reflecting the will of society," he said. "But without clear legislation, it would be inappropriate for us to use our monetary policy to develop a greener economy or to achieve other goals related to climate change in the world," he added. EUR/USD With regards to the forex market, EUR/USD still has a chance of updating the December highs, but for this to happen, the pair has to break above 1.0760 as only that will push the quote to 1.0790 and 1.0850. Meanwhile, a drop below 1.0720 will bring the pair to 1.0680 or to 1.0650. GBP/USD In GBP/USD, buyers need to stay above 1.2140 to maintain their advantage as the rise is gradually slowing down. The breakdown of 1.2200 will spur the pair to reach 1.2260 and 1.2301, while a fall below 1.2140 will push it to 2090 and 1.2040. Read next: According To Analysts, Russia May Collapse Within A Decade, Guaranty Trust Bank Has Fined| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331954
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

Gold Is Likely To Continue Trading Within A Range

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.01.2023 08:18
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,873.25. We can see a strong consolidation below the resistance of 1,880. Gold is likely to continue trading within a range until inflation data is released on Thursday in the American session. In case gold continues to rise, it should consolidate above 1,880 and then it could reach the zone of strong resistance around the psychological level of 1900. It could even reach +1/8 Murray located at 1,906. On the other hand, in case gold consolidates below 8/8 Murray in the next few hours and falls below 1,875, we expect a decline towards the support of the 21 SMA located at 1,863. This level where the 21-day moving average is located could give gold a good technical bounce to resume its bullish cycle and the instrument could reach the area of 1,906 (+1/8 Murray). Conversely, in case negative pressure prevails, a strong bearish acceleration is expected to occur below 1,860. Then, the metal could reach 7/8 Murray at 1,843 and even the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,830. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for the XAU/USD pair to define the trend. In the event that it trades below 1,875, it will be a clear signal to sell, with targets at 1,860 and 1,843. On the contrary, in case the instrument breaks sharply the resistance of 1,880, it will be a signal to buy with targets at 1,906   Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308110
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

Fundamental Speculative Reasons May Prevent The Pound From Going Down

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.01.2023 08:04
Yesterday, the British pound tried to settle above the target level of 1.2155 (low of May 13 and close to the high on November 24), but the consolidation failed. The Marlin oscillator did not reach the zero line, still in the descending trend area. The probability increases, either a reversal, then an attempt to cross the support at 1.1933 along with the MACD line. Fundamental speculative reasons may prevent the pound from going down, the main one is the release of the December CPI in the US, which is expected tomorrow. And specifically to the technical situation under consideration, a false sharp movement to the upside can be obtained for this fundamental reason, since consolidation is short-term, trading volumes are high and warns about a possible repositioning of big players. The false rally can be expressed by the fact that the price may not reach the 1.2410 target level, it will soon return under 1.2155 and further below 1.1933. On the four-hour chart, the price is moving below 1.2155, but as long as the Marlin oscillator stays in the green zone, such growth to the level, except for the continuation of the sideways movement, does not say anything. The main sign of a reversal is when the price crosses the MACD line (1.2040) on this chart. Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331914
Russia Has Adopted China's CIPS For Its Oil Transactions

Russia Has Adopted China's CIPS For Its Oil Transactions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.01.2023 14:15
Gold will be a deciding factor for China as the country seeks to bolster the yuan's international standing and continues to advance its plans to buy oil from Saudi Arabia. In early December, during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the leaders of the largest oil-exporting country to accept the yuan for oil as the two countries seek to strengthen their geopolitical ties. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called the talks a "historic new phase in relations with China." If Saudi Arabia starts trading oil in yuan, this will create additional incentive for the Chinese currency, bringing it one step closer to reaching critical mass at the international level. Gold is a key factor in the further development of the petro-yuan system. A gold-backed petro-yuan does not require full renminbi convertibility to function, so it allows China to both maintain control of its capital account and stimulate the internationalization of the yuan. Support for oil trading in yuan with gold will play an important role in building the petro-yuan system. The convertibility of the yuan into gold effectively turns the currency into a global investment asset for foreign renminbi holders, increasing their confidence in and demand for the Chinese currency. Last December, China bought 30 tonnes of gold. A month before, they have already purchased about 32 tonnes. This was the first officially registered purchase since September 2019. China's gold reserves currently stand at 2,010 tonnes. Analysts at the French bank  Analysts at the French bank said China has already made strategic progress in global currency markets as it seeks to weaken the U.S. dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. They noted that because of Western economic sanctions, primarily from the U.S., Russia has adopted China's CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) for its oil transactions, bypassing the global payment system SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which is dominated by the U.S. dollar. Countries such as Iran, Venezuela and Indonesia currently settle some of their oil transactions in yuan. The volume of trade and the ability to use the yuan for international payments may grow as more countries diversify to avoid the risk associated with the U.S. dollar. This event may eventually challenge the U.S. dollar-based global financial system, as the dollar's status and importance is largely based on energy and commodity markets.   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331851
In The Coming Days Will Be The Final Consolidation Of Bitcoin

In The Coming Days Will Be The Final Consolidation Of Bitcoin

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.01.2023 14:02
Bitcoin retains the upward momentum it received at the beginning of the new week. The asset managed to break through several key resistance levels, which allowed it to build up bullish potential and continue to move to local highs. Among the probable reasons for the upward movement of Bitcoin is an improvement in the macroeconomic situation and the activation of various categories of investors. This process is associated with the situation in China, where all covid restrictions have been finally lifted. The end of another round of the fight against coronavirus in China provoked an explosive reaction in Asian markets. Analysts predict that in the coming weeks we should expect the growth of the main Asian indices by 10%–15%, as well as the strengthening of the yuan. The activation of the Asian markets also caused a price increase in the energy market, namely oil. Brent and West Texas rose 1.2% as a direct result of more active Asian investors. How positive this process will be for the cryptocurrency market is not yet clear, but the global economy has definitely received investment injections. Another probable reason for the growth of Bitcoin quotes is the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency halving procedure. According to the latest charts, the asset is approaching the final stage of price decline and begins a recovery movement towards local highs. Bitcoin and S&P 500 A powerful buying bar following the results of last Friday is also called the reason for the growth of Bitcoin quotes, which strengthened the correlation with the stock index. However, as of January 10, the SPX quotes sharply retreated and rolled back to the $3,900 level. The technical metrics of the financial instrument indicate further downward movement. Stochastic has formed a bearish crossover, and therefore there is a high probability that the current trading day will end below yesterday's high. It is likely that the fall in SPX is also associated with the activation of Asian markets, and therefore, we should expect American investors to try to buy off the fall after 13:00 UTC. In any case, the sell-off of American indices by Asian investors may have a negative impact on the price movement of Bitcoin. BTC/USD Analysis Bitcoin continues its upward movement, and as of January 10, the asset reached the $17.2k level. Following the results of the last trading day, the asset retested the level of $17.3k, but the price was pushed back to the local support zone $17.2k. Bitcoin holds positions near this mark, but there is a possibility of correction. The entire section of the path from $16.4k to $17.3k went almost without corrections, closing at least above the previous day's high. This indicates local overheating and a possible correction of the cryptocurrency in the next few days. The $17.3k level is the key resistance level on the way to $17.4k–$17.8k. This is the opening level on December 16, when Bitcoin formed one of the largest red candles over the past three months. Therefore, with the current volumes, buyers will not be able to gain a foothold above this level. The price movement on the 4-hour chart confirms the strength of the sellers near the $17.3k level. At the same time, the stochastic is forming another bullish crossover after a local recovery pause. This indicates another retest of the $17.3k level, which will most likely end with a local correction. Results The key task for BTC in the coming days will be the final consolidation and retention of the $17k level. The cryptocurrency market is approaching a series of important announcements from the Fed. Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech regarding the regulator's policy in 2023. Given this level, volatility will increase, and the stock and crypto markets will react to Powell's theses. An increase in volatility and sharp price movements is expected, therefore, the key task for BTC will be to hold the $17k level in order to continue rising.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331839
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Only The NASDAQ Composite Index Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.01.2023 08:04
On Thursday this week, investors will be waiting for the publication of data on consumer prices in the US. Analysts believe that annual inflation in the country slowed down to 6.5% in December from 7.1% per annum recorded in November. The statistics may give traders a hint as to what to do next with the US Federal Reserve, whose next two-day meeting will take place on January 31 and February 1. About 77% of analysts expect the regulator's discount rate to increase by 25 basis points to 4.5-4.75%. In addition, as early as this Friday, the largest US banks will report on their financial results for the previous year. At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.08%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.63%.  Dow Jones The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was Salesforce Inc, which gained 6.59 points or 4.69% to close at 147.10. Quotes of Intel Corporation rose by 0.58 points (2.02%), closing trading at 29.31. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 4.92 points or 1.41% to close at 353.00. The least gainers were Merck & Company Inc, which shed 4.46 points or 3.88% to end the session at 110.38. Johnson & Johnson rose 2.59% or 4.67 points to close at 175.58 while The Travelers Companies Inc shed 2.45% or 4.75 points to close at 189.12. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 5.93% to 119.77, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, which gained 5.90% to close at 13.81. as well as shares of NVIDIA Corporation, which rose 5.18% to close the session at 156.28. The least gainers were Baxter International Inc, which shed 7.74% to close at 44.70. Shares of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc shed 7.69% to end the session at 680.49. Quotes of Northrop Grumman Corporation decreased in price by 4.99% to 495.41. NASDAQ  The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were CinCor Pharma Inc, which rose 143.97% to 28.74, Amryt Pharma Holdings Ltd, which gained 107.29% to close at 14.51. as well as Albireo Pharma Inc, which rose 92.16% to end the session at 43.85. The least gainers were shares of Calithera Biosciences Inc, which shed 81.77% to close at 0.66. Shares of Peak Bio Inc shed 27.27% to end the session at 2.56. Quotes of Cerus Corporation decreased in price by 28.04% to 2.72. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1868) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1202), while quotes of 102 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2192 companies rose in price, 1561 fell, and 172 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.98% to 21.97. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 0.33%, or 6.10, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for February delivery rose 1.42%, or 1.05, to $74.82 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.46%, or 1.15, to $79.72 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.82% to 1.07, while USD/JPY shed 0.19% to hit 131.82. Futures on the USD index fell 0.68% to 102.94. Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307907
Eurozone sentiment continues to improve

The ECB Chief Christine Lagarde Flagged Another 50bp Hike At The February Meeting

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.01.2023 07:58
The European Central Bank forecasts wage growth to be very strong in the coming quarters, strengthening the case for further rate hikes. In an Economic Bulletin article published on Monday, the bank said wage growth has been "relatively moderate" since the start of the pandemic, but is now close to its long-term trend. And, over the next few quarters, it is expected to be very strong compared to historical patterns. "This reflects resilient labor markets, which so far have not been significantly affected by the economic slowdown, an increase in the national minimum wage and some lag between wages and the high rate of inflation," the article explained. Over the last 1.5 years, price growth has exceeded the ECB's target of 2%. There is a chance that it will exceed 10% at the end of 2022 as the core inflation indicator, which excludes volatile goods such as food and energy, reached a record high in December. With forecasts showing that 2% inflation will not be achievable before the end of 2025 and unions pushing for generous compensation packages, the ECB conducted an unprecedented series of rate hikes, pushing the deposit rate up to 2% last month. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD continued to rally, approaching the top of May-June last year. To avoid a wage and price spiral, ECB chief Christine Lagarde flagged another half-point hike at the February meeting. After all, weaker economic growth is unlikely to help in the near term, especially as a shortage of skilled labor encourages businesses to retain workers and pay them well. ECB chief economist Philip Lane noted that it will take several years for wages to fully adjust to the recent shocks, but "there are signs of stronger wage growth in the service sector", primarily in those where there is a shortage of staff. However, the expected slowdown in economic growth in the euro area and uncertainty about the economic outlook are likely to put downward pressure in the near term. Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331773
Analysis Of The Silver Commodity Asset Price Movement

Silver Has Great Potential At Current Price Levels

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.01.2023 12:52
With precious metals gaining momentum at the end of the year, Main Street investors raised their forecast of gold and silver for the new year. Data has shown that gold ended the year unchanged, while silver is up almost 3%. Spot gold started at around $1,828 an ounce last year and ended just above $1,822 an ounce, while spot silver opened at $23.28 an ounce and ended at $23.93 an ounce. In a survey conducted quite recently, 37.5% chose gold as the best performing asset for 2023, while 36.8% chose silver. The third most favored asset was copper, with 8% of votes, followed by oil and Bitcoin, which has 4.7% votes each. Platinum and lithium have 3.7% votes. Palladium was the least popular choice, garnering just 0.9% of the vote. Wall Street investors are also optimistic about gold and silver as it is well positioned for growth since the US is entering economic recession. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said he believes the Fed will move another 50 basis points in February, pushing the rate to peak at 5% in 2023. But once the Fed reaches 5%, rates will certainly be cut, Gundlach warned. Read next: After The Correction, Jacek Ma's Share In Shareholder Votes Will Fall To 6.2%| FXMAG.COM ANZ strategist Daniel Hynes also believes market sentiment is shifting in favor of gold. "With the Fed pause likely to be followed by a reversal, gold has already started to appreciate," added Wells Fargo head of real asset strategy John Laforge. The company sees gold hitting $1,900 to $2,000 in 2023. Many analysts are even more optimistic about silver in the new year. Laforge, for instance, said that with the price returning to $23, there is a chance that a further rise will be seen in the market. Everett Millman, a precious metals expert at Gainesville Coins, explains that silver has great potential at current price levels because investors have neglected it. "It is more likely that silver will outperform gold. Its recent behavior is encouraging, and the available supply of investment products is quite limited," he said. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331738
The Bullish Idea For Bitcoin Remains Relevant

The Bullish Idea For Bitcoin Remains Relevant

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.01.2023 11:29
Bitcoin breaks its weeks-long silence and bullishly bursts into its first working week after the holidays. The cryptocurrency reached the $17.1k level, and continues its upward movement to the $17.4k level. It is important to note that the increase in trading activity occurred on Sunday. Bitcoin managed to consolidate above $17k and continues its upward movement on Monday. The positive start of the trading week may be indirectly related to the positive statistics of the U.S. labor market. According to data released on Friday, January 6, the unemployment rate rose by 3.5% against forecasts of 3.7%. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000, while the forecast was 200,000. Labor market statistics once again prove that the U.S. economy remains resilient, despite the impending recession. On the one hand, this gives investors additional confidence in stability, but on the other hand, it gives the Fed a free hand to further raise the interest rate. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has already stated that it is necessary to pause in raising the rate only after reaching the target level of 5.4%. The strength of the U.S. labor market and other economic indicators give the Fed the opportunity to implement its strategy to the fullest. Bitcoin and SPX A similar upward movement in the S&P 500 stock index played no small role in BTC reaching $17k. As of January 9, the trading index had formed a bullish takeover pattern thanks to the activation of a large buyer. The cryptocurrency market lacks the same volume as the stock market, and therefore Bitcoin managed to reach the $17k level. At the same time, the SPX came close to the $4,000 mark. However, for the final confidence in the bullish potential of the current week, it is necessary to wait for the opening of the U.S. markets on Monday. BTC/USD Analysis Bitcoin's long-term consolidation is nearing its end, and the asset has taken the first step towards a bullish strategy. The fluctuation range of $16.4k–$16.9k is gradually receding into the past, and the $17.4k–$17.8k level is already looming on the horizon. However, a similar situation already took place in mid-December, when Bitcoin made a false breakout the $18k level. Then the cryptocurrency grew on low volumes and barely absorbed the bears' volumes. The volumes at which BTC broke through the $17k level can also be characterized as low. The next two days will be key in understanding the future prospects for Bitcoin price movement. If the asset continues its upward movement with the growth of on-chain activity and trading volumes, then there is a possibility of a final consolidation above $17k. However, if a major buyer does not appear and the SPX starts to correct, then the probability of a false breakout will increase significantly, and the price will return below $16.9k. As of writing, the bullish idea for Bitcoin remains relevant. If the asset gains a foothold above $17k, then after local consolidation, the nearest targets for BTC will be $17.4k and $17.8k. Results The cryptocurrency market cheerfully started the new trading week, slight increases in trading volumes are visible. This is not enough to implement bullish impulses, so everything will depend on activation of large buyers and dynamics of S&P 500 price movement.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331734
Gold Is Expected The Further Upside Movement

A Recovery Of The USD And US Treasuries Can Put Pressure On The Gold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.01.2023 08:10
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,868.62 with a strong bullish bias. It is currently trading below the 8/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA and 200 EMA. We can see that it is reaching extremely overbought levels. The price is likely to continue its rise and could reach the resistance zone of 1,875 and could even reach 1,881 where the weekly resistance is located. NFP figures were released on Friday, these increased by 223,000 in December, compared to the market expectation of 200,000. This data had already been assimilated by the market during the first days of last week. Therefore, the market reaction went against the statistics. This week, the US dollar and Treasuries could have a recovery and this could put pressure on the XAU/USD pair and we could expect a fall towards the 21 SMA located at 1,848. The eagle indicator has reached the extremely overbought zone of about 95 points, which suggests that a technical correction is likely to occur in the next few hours. This outlook could be confirmed only if gold trades below 1,881. In case gold consolidates above 1,875 (8/8 Murray), there is a strong probability that it will continue to rise and reach the psychological level of $1,900 and could even reach +1/8 Murray located at 1,906. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for a strong rejection around 1,875 - 1,871. In case gold fails to consolidate above this level, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell with targets at 1,860 and 1,848. The eagle indicator is in the extremely overbought area. Therefore, any technical bounce below 1,881 will be seen as a signal to sell.
The Potential For A Bullish Turn Of The EUR/USD Pair Remains High

Today, The Euro (EUR) May Have A Chance To Rise

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.01.2023 08:08
The dollar's first rush to a massive strengthening across the board since trading opened in the new year was wiped out by Friday's surge in counter-dollar currencies and the return of risk appetite to the markets - stock markets have already exceeded their pre-new year's values. The euro rose 125 pips on Friday, which is one of the signs that the bearish correction is over, but until the price settles over the range of 1.0595-1.0660 and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart falls to the positive area, it is too premature to change the reversal strategy. The second scenario, with the formation of a complex extended divergence, which we considered in mid-December, gets an upgraded look - the reversal from the support area of 1.0470 while reaching the target range of 1.0758-1.0787. On the daily chart, it is marked with the dashed lines. At the moment, under the main scenario, I expect the correction to end in the range of 1.0595-1.0660 and movement below 1.0470, which will also mean that the price will move under the MACD indicator line. On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, the Marlin has settled in the positive area, and the situation changes into which the euro could rise. But the price and the oscillator are not settling on the daily chart, so the output on the four-hour chart may not be accurate. Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331698
The Upward Movement Of GBP/USD Pair Can Resume Almost At Any Moment

The Main Scenario Of The GBP/USD Pair Is Downward

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.01.2023 08:04
At the end of last week, the price tried to attack the support of the MACD indicator line (blue moving one), but because of the sharp growth of the adjacent markets, the pound's growth on Friday blocked Thursday's decline. As a result, the quote was in the range of December 22. What does it mean? Judging by the volumes, which were rather high for the beginning of the new year, the pound intends to overcome the main resistance of the second half of December - 1.2155. If the price settles above this level, the pair may reach the 1.2410 target. Important macro data will be released on Thursday - the US inflation data will be published according to the schedule, so I don't expect a qualitative market growth (if any) before that moment, even at the stock exchanges, because the S&P 500 grew by 2.28% on Friday only because Charles Evans made a statement regarding the 0.25% rate hike at the Federal Reserve's next meeting. But the realization that even the current rate of 4.50% is already becoming heavy on the stock markets may quickly bring investors back to reality. On the four-hour chart, the price is completely in an upward position. However, such a technical situation has occurred more than once since the end of December 2022. In general, I see sideways movement in the range of 1.1933-1.2155 and I am waiting for further developments. The main scenario is downward. Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331696
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The NASDAQ Composite Had The Biggest Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.01.2023 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 2.13%, the S&P 500 rose 2.28%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.56%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading was Intel Corporation, which gained 1.17 points or 4.25% to close at 28.73. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 1.42 points or 4.04% to close at 36.61. Dow Inc rose 2.11 points or 3.99% to close at 55.02. The biggest losers were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which gained 0.04 points (0.01%) to end the session at 490.00. Home Depot Inc was down 0.65% or 2.06 points to close at 317.53, while Chevron Corp was up 0.75% or 1.32 points to close at 176. 56. S&P 500 The leading performers in the S&P 500 index today were Costco Wholesale Corp, which rose 7.26% to 482.87, Old Dominion Freight Line Inc, which gained 6.83% to close at 300.70. , as well as shares of IDEXX Laboratories Inc, which rose 6.82% to close the session at 447.77. The biggest losers were Baxter International Inc, which shed 7.84% to close at 48.45. Shares of Waters Corporation shed 7.15% to end the session at 322.21. Quotes of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc decreased in price by 3.94% to 535.00. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Swvl Holdings Corp, which rose 115.36% to hit 0.30, Medavail Holdings Inc, which gained 80.19% to close at 0.56, and also shares of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd, which rose by 77.78%, ending the session at around 2.24. The biggest losers were Fate Therapeutics Inc, which shed 61.45% to close at 4.24. Shares of Nabriva Therapeutics AG shed 44.84% to end the session at 1.30. Quotes of Graphite Bio Inc decreased in price by 39.54% to 1.85. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2655) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (459), while quotes of 79 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2689 companies rose in price, 1087 fell, and 190 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 5.92% to 21.13. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 1.66%, or 30.50, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 0.14%, or 0.10, to $73.77 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery fell 0.14%, or 0.11, to $78.58 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 1.18% to 1.06, while USD/JPY shed 0.99% to hit 132.09. Futures on the USD index fell 1.12% to 103.65.       Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307765
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

Forex: According to InstaForex's Irina Manzenko, greenback will be in charge of shaping the GBP/USD pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.01.2023 23:52
The pound and the dollar fluctuate gently in a range of 100 points, starting alternatively from the price corridor's edges. Sellers and buyers of GBP/USD are engaged in a heated battle within this level; the former is attempting to keep the price within the 20th figure, while the latter is attempting to push the price down to the base of the 19th price level. And it is clear from the outcomes of the conflict, which lasted almost three weeks, that no one has emerged victorious. The price of the pair is still fluctuating between 1.1945 and 1.2050, occasionally going above its limits depending on the circumstances. However, sellers cannot fall to the goal of 1.1900 and purchasers cannot achieve the mark of 1.2100 at the same moment.   The pre-vacation season is not the sole cause of the slowdown among GBP/USD traders. Since the buyers of the pair gave up their goals in the middle of December, following the publication of the outcomes of the Bank of England's final meeting in 2022, the "dead season" only indirectly affected this situation. It is important to highlight that the English regulator carried out the fundamental scenario by taking a hawkish stance. The Central Bank increased the interest rate by 50 basis points while also signaling a future increase in the rate. However, most market participants expressed skepticism over the rate announced by the British Central Bank; several analysts predict that the Bank of England would either lower the pace of tightening monetary policy in 2023 or stop completely. Many currency strategists concluded after analyzing the minutes of the December meeting that the regulator had moved the focus of its speech to evaluate the dangers and negative effects of tightening the PEPP. Also brought to light is the fact that the Central Bank mentioned the slowing in inflationary increase in a "different line." The first quarter of 2023 will see a slowdown in inflation indices, according to economists at the Central Bank. The fact that two (out of nine) members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted against hiking the rate further put additional pressure on the pound. They demanded that it be kept at three percent because, in their words, it would be "more than enough" to bring inflation back to the desired level. In other words, while publicly implementing a fundamental, hawkish scenario at the December meeting, the British regulator did not turn into a supporter of the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached the six-month price limit on the night of the December meeting, reaching 1.2444. Since September 2022, specifically, when the pound fell to the 1.0345 level due to the budget crisis and political unrest, the price has been steadily rising for several months. The pound has gained more than 2000 points in just 3.5 months, demonstrating its aspirations to reach the 25th position. However, the paradoxical outcomes of the British Central Bank's most recent meeting in 2022 confounded everything: the GBP/USD pair initially dropped by about 400 points, but then became trapped on the cusp of 19 and 20 figures. I believe that the dollar, whose "well-being" will depend on the dynamics of important US macroeconomic data, will determine the future course of the pair in the medium run. Such a disposition puts Non-farm, which will be released tomorrow, January 6, front and center. Preliminary predictions state that the overall trend of the December indicators should be similar to that of the November ones. The unemployment rate should stay at 3.7%, and 210 thousand more individuals should find work in non-agricultural sectors (an increase of 263 thousand was recorded in November). Salary indicators should follow the release's trajectory (+5.0% y/y, 5.1% in November) as well. The GBP/USD bears may attempt to penetrate the defense near the 1.1950 level and move to the base of the 19th figure if the report is released in the green zone. In all other scenarios, the pair is likely to keep drifting along the corridor stated above as it gets closer to its upper border (a temporary breakthrough to the 1.2070 mark is not excluded). The British pound currently lacks "own" justifications for continuing the northern movement. The GBP/USD northern trend was halted by the actual split in the Central Bank Committee and the statement's cautious phrasing. The dollar, which is currently in standby mode, is now in charge of the initiative. Technically speaking, the pair is situated above the Kumo cloud on the daily chart, between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and simultaneously between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. In other words, the method lacks any obvious cues, necessitating a wait-and-see attitude. The 1.1950 level (the actual boundary of the three-week price range) is the closest level of support, and the 1.1900 goal is the key price barrier (the upper border of the Kumo cloud coinciding with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). The number 1.2100 serves as the resistance level (the average line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe). However, 1.2070 has been the actual price ceiling for the past approximately three weeks. Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331563
There’s a lot to follow in crypto space in terms of regulations

There’s a lot to follow in crypto space in terms of regulations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.01.2023 23:14
In a joint statement released on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Office of Foreign Exchange Regulation (OCC) expressed concern about the "significant" risks that crypto assets may present to the whole banking system. In a joint statement, the authorities stressed the importance of preventing a "migration of risks linked with the crypto asset sector to the banking system, which cannot be mitigated or managed." According to a recent statement, "Agencies continue to exercise care on present or prospective crypto asset-related activities and risks in each financial organization given the major dangers identified by the recent bankruptcies of numerous prominent crypto asset companies." Banks are being cautioned by regulators about a variety of hazards related to cryptography, including fraud, volatility, inadequate risk management, and infection in the crypto industry. The agencies also mentioned the habit of holding cryptocurrency assets and the legal ambiguity around foreclosure and property rights. The news on Tuesday was made only minutes before Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder and former CEO of the insolvent FTX cryptocurrency exchange, entered a not-guilty plea to eight charges of electronic fraud, securities fraud, and conspiracy. For his alleged involvement in the most well-known Bitcoin meltdown to date, Bankman-Fried could spend up to 115 years in prison. Contrary to reputable and safe banking procedures: According to the statement, issuing or storing as core crypto assets those that are issued, stored, or transferred in an open, public, and/or decentralized network or similar system "is probably incompatible with safe and secure banking practices," according to the agencies' current understanding and experience to date. The security and dependability of business models that concentrate on activities related to crypto assets or have a focused impact on the sector have also caused severe issues for authorities. Agencies keep an eye on banks that can be exposed to dangers related to the cryptocurrency industry and take into account any requests from banks to engage in crypto operations. The OCC has established regulations that require banks to get authorization before engaging in any cryptocurrency transaction. In the early 2000s, acting financial controller Michael Hsu linked cryptocurrencies to derivatives, citing the potential for contamination and the enthusiasm behind the industry's expansion. Although it keeps a careful eye on the cryptocurrency markets, the Financial Stability Supervision Council does not yet consider cryptocurrency activity to be systemic. Congress has been presented with several bills to regulate cryptocurrencies, but it will take some time for the legislation to pass. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331525
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

The US Stock Market Is Off To A Low Start Before The Bull Market Resumes

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.01.2023 11:47
Following the decline that occurred on January 2, which was due to the collapse of TESLA and APPLE shares, stock indices rose as investors focused on the latest economic statistics from the US and the minutes of the December Fed meeting. Data in the Euro area also caused a strong surge not only in local indices, but also in EUR/USD. Conversely, the US indicator was in decline, which should have led to a decline in the US stock market. However, this did not happen, probably due to growing expectations that the Fed will soon stop raising rates. Investors are clearly hopeful that the local equity market will not fall further as they believe that the worst has already happened. It can be said that the US stock market is off to a low start before the bull market resumes. The positioning of short and long positions has reached the strongest divergence in favor of sellers, which can be overcome at any time if the market thinks that it is time to start buying. The upcoming inflation data in the US will be a signal to buy, but only if there is a noticeable decline in the figures. Read next: Samsung Suffers From Weakening Demand, Amazon Will Increase The Total Number Of Layoffs To Over 18,000| FXMAG.COM Forecasts for today: USD/JPY The pair is trading around 132.70. A break above this level, which could happen if there is positive sentiment in the market, will push it to 134.45. WTI Oil found support at 73.00. If this level holds and positive sentiment prevails, a rise to 75.00 can be expected.   Relevance up to 07:00 2023-01-07 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331508
Hedge Funds Have Continued To Invest In Gold, The Bullish Position Of Silver Is Holding

The Last Quarter Of 2022 Was So Favorable For Precious Metals

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.01.2023 11:30
Fed and precious metals The biggest macro hurdle for precious metals in 2022 was the historic tightening by the Federal Reserve, which posted the fastest rate hike since the early 1980s. Overall, rates rose 425 basis points over the year, rising to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Considering the significant headwinds caused by the sharp rate hikes by central banks, particularly the Fed, last year's performance of gold, silver and platinum prices was remarkable. And the last quarter of the year was so favorable for precious metals because the markets began to orient themselves towards the Fed's reversal. Fed At its last meeting in 2022, the Fed slowed growth to 50 basis points but remained steadfast in its fight to bring inflation down, warning markets that there will be more rate hikes into the new year as inflation is not at the right level. "We've raised 425 basis points this year, and we're into restrictive territory. It's now not so important how fast we go. It's far more important to think about what is the ultimate level. And... how long do we remain restrictive? That will become the most important question," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters after the December FOMC meeting. Powell Regarding the possibility of a soft landing, Powell also noted that the longer the Fed needs to keep rates high, the narrower the runway gets. "I don't think anyone knows whether we're going to have a recession or not. And if we do, whether it's going to be a deep one or not, it's just not knowable," he said. GDP The latest median forecast for next year shows that rates could rise to 5.1%, with the Fed also expecting real GDP to be 0.5% in 2023 and PCE inflation to slow to 3.1%. Markets have already priced in additional rate hikes for February and March. But many analysts predict a pause after that, followed by a potential rate cut towards the end of the year.     Long-term review Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331523
The Gold Could Continue Its Rally In The Coming Days

The Gold Could Continue Its Rally In The Coming Days

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.01.2023 08:00
XAU/USD notched a new high at 1,865 during the American session due to a weak dollar and weak Treasury bonds. XAU/USD is trading above the daily pivot point of 1,850 and within the uptrend channel formed on the 4-hour chart. We can observe a bullish bias, albeit showing exhaustion levels that are reflected in the last bearish candles with some reversal signals. Gold is consolidating gains at around 1,850 after the publication of the FOMC minutes. As long as it trades above the key level of 1,850, there is a chance that the XAU/USD pair could continue its rally in the coming days and may reach the resistance zone of 1,875 (8/8 Murray). US Treasuries bonds play an important role in the direction of gold. The 10-year Treasury yields have dipped to 3.699% with a bearish signal, which could favor the strength of the gold because they are inversely correlated. Therefore, if XAU/USD maintains gains above 1,850, it could be a positive sign for the bulls and in the short term, the metal could reach the psychological level of $1,900. In case XAU/USD falls below 1,850, gold is expected to decline to the 21 SMA located at 1,835. A return below 1,830 could be a clear sign of a technical reversal with a bearish correction. The instrument might reach the bottom of the bullish channel and the 6/8 Murray support at 1,812. If XAU/USD recovers to levels above 1,850, it would reinforce the bullish outlook. Conversely, a drop below 1,835 could trigger a reversal, leaving gold vulnerable. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,850 with targets at 1,835. In case gold continues to rise, we should expect it to reach the resistance zone of the top of the uptrend channel around 1,867 to sell, with targets at 1,850 and at 1,835.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-10 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307413
Eurodollar: InstaForex's analyst suggests making sales with objectives close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci

Eurodollar: InstaForex's analyst suggests making sales with objectives close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 17:27
  The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart still appears to be fairly accurate, and the entire upward phase of the trend is still highly complex. It now has a clear, corrected, and lengthened form. The waves a-b-c-d-e have been combined into a complicated corrective structure, with wave e having a form that is far more complex than the other waves. Since the peak of wave e is substantially higher than the peak of wave C, if the existing wave arrangement is accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished or may already be finished. I'm getting ready for a decrease in the instrument because, in this scenario, we are predicted to build at least three waves down. Yesterday, the instrument fell as a result of a sharp decline in demand for the euro. These two marks, along with a failed attempt to surpass the Fibonacci level of 200.0% (1.0726), could indicate the end of the development of the upward trend section. Now, nevertheless, US dollar demand must increase further. The context of the news this week enables us to anticipate such a result. Although there isn't much new information right now, a correction must be made. On Tuesday, the euro/dollar instrument decreased by 120 basis points. This is the first high amplitude in nearly three weeks. It is clear that the market has resumed its regular operating procedures and moved past the New Year's vacations. Although market activity has already significantly decreased today, the instrument does not have to pass 150 points every day. I can only make a note of the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector yesterday, which continued to decrease as expected, negating the possibility of a market reaction in the shape of a rise in dollar demand. There were other news items as well, most notably a study on German inflation that caught the attention of analysts all over the world. Although this report was released a few hours after the euro's losses began, many individuals seemed to believe that it was related to a decline in demand for the currency for some reason. The speech of IMF President Kristalina Georgieva, who observed the slowdown in the economies of the European Union, China, and the United States and came to unfavorable conclusions about the future of global GDP, is also covered by the international media. However, I don't find anything particularly surprising here either, as the recessions that will affect the world's greatest economies have been widely anticipated for more than a year. Considering everything mentioned above, I conclude that Tuesday's news was unlikely to be the reason why the euro/dollar instrument and, by the way, the pound/dollar instrument also declined. The underlying cause of the decrease, however, may very well be the wave marking, which has been signaling a decline in the instrument and the formation of a downward trend section for several weeks. I observe that the downward reversal happened close to the projected wave e. As a result, the market was reluctant to add to the wave's complexity by making more purchases. I continue to support a scenario when the tool drops to around two figures.     General conclusions Based on the analysis, I conclude that the rising trend section's construction has multiplied into five waves and is either finished or nearly so. As a result, I suggest making sales with objectives close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. We have a signal for a drop and a departure of quotes from the recent highs, while there is a chance that the rising phase of the trend will become even more lengthy and complicated. The likelihood of this scenario is still pretty high. Read next: Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart | FXMAG.COM The wave marking of the descending trend segment notably becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this portion is complete, work on the downward trend segment can start. Relevance up to 14:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331469
On Wednesday morning total crypto market capitalisation was below $800bn

On Wednesday morning total crypto market capitalisation was below $800bn

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 17:10
Wednesday morning saw a small rise in the price of digital gold. The price of one bitcoin is equilibrating at $16,836 at the time of writing. Despite registering consistent gains and setting seven-day highs during the previous two trading days, the cryptocurrency ended Tuesday's trading session in negative territory. The minimum price of Bitcoin for the past day was $16,622, according to CoinMarketCap, a website for tracking the prices of digital assets. By the way, the coin's value dropped 3.3% in December 2022. The value of the BTC has decreased by roughly 65% since January of last year. At the same time, the cryptocurrency's price has dropped by more than 70% since November 2021, when it updated the historical record. Many other virtual assets have also fallen significantly from their previous levels at the same time. Crypto Market The primary rival to Bitcoin, Ethereum, also saw a slight increase on Wednesday. The price of the coin is $1,226 as of this writing. Except for the Tether stablecoin, all cryptocurrencies from the top 10 by market cap were traded in the green on the previous day. Ethereum (+0.91%) experienced the best results at the same time. The cryptocurrency Ethereum (+1.01%), one of the top ten strongest digital assets, led the growth list according to last week's findings, and XRP (-5.14%) dominated the decline list. The Solana token took the first spot in the list of the rise among the top 100 most capitalized digital assets over the last day, according to CoinGecko, the largest global aggregator of data on virtual assets, and the OKV coin performed the worst (-2.57%). Read next: We are preparing to see the S&P500 decline in the first weeks of the new year down to 3600 | FXMAG.COM According to the previous week's results, the digital asset Chain (-15.81%) had the worst performance among the top 100 most powerful digital assets, while BitDAO (+37.46%) had the best. According to CoinGecko, as of Wednesday morning, the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $772.008 billion, failing to cross the crucial $800 billion threshold. The indicator increased by 1.57% over the previous day. Since November 2021, when it surpassed $3 trillion, the entire market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has more than tripled. Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331465
Swissquote expect Euro against US dollar to recover along the year

US dollar index - technical analysis - economists consider Fed hiking by 0.25% in February and March

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 16:48
Since October, the dollar and its DXY index have been under pressure. Market participants expect a further slowdown in the Fed's monetary policy tightening. Many economists are already predicting the Fed will cut the size of the rate hike again in early 2023, moving to 0.25% hikes in February and March. And this is a harbinger of a deeper drop in DXY. From a technical point of view, the dollar index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal) is trading in the medium-term bear market zone, below the key resistance levels 105.40 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 104.45 (50 EMA on the weekly chart). The first signal for building up short positions will be a breakdown of today's intraday low at 103.80, and a confirming one will be a breakdown of last month's low at 103.36. Long-term DXY downside targets are near 100.00, 98.55 (200 EMA on the weekly chart). In turn, the breakdown of the 93.00 support level (200 EMA on the monthly chart) will mark the breaking of the global bullish trend. Read next: Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart | FXMAG.COM In the alternative scenario, the DXY will resume growth, returning to the bull market zone, above the 105.40 resistance level. The first signals for the implementation of this scenario will be the breakdown of the resistance levels 104.19 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 104.45. The breakdown of the 106.45 resistance level (144 EMA on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario of the resumption of growth in DXY. In the meantime, short positions remain preferable even below the resistance levels 104.45, 104.19. Support levels: 103.80, 103.40, 103.00, 102.00, 101.00, 100.00, 98.55, 93.00 Resistance levels: 104.19, 104.45, 105.40, 106.45, 107.80, 109.25 Trading Tips Dollar Index CFD #USDX: Sell Stop 103.70. Stop Loss 104.90. Take-Profit 103.40, 103.00, 102.00, 101.00, 100.00, 98.55, 93.00 Buy Stop 104.90. Stop-Loss 103.70. Take-Profit 105.40, 106.45, 107.80, 109.25 Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-07 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331459
Australian dollar: RBA is expected to raise the interest rate by 25bp. CPI prints of Australia and the USA to be released day after day this week

Australian dollar: It seems there's something going on in terms of China-Australia relations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 16:37
In today's trading, the Australian dollar surged against the US dollar, breaking the three-week price peak in just a few hours after rising more than 160 points. Interestingly, such price dynamics were triggered by both the rise of the Australian dollar and the weakening of the US dollar. It turns out that China played a significant part in this, which under the circumstances can not only frighten investors with a new COVID outbreak or disappoint with dismal macroeconomic data. Beijing has backed the Australian dollar today in the framework of relations between China and Australia by sending messages of peace. It is important to take a quick historical detour. In light of the COVID-19 outbreak, China deliberately "tightened the screws" in its relations with Australia during the events that took place 2.5 years ago. The reality is that Canberra actively and openly pushed for a global study into the coronavirus's origins as well as early intervention efforts (i.e., when it was still present within Wuhan's boundaries). Australia has also been among the most vocal opponents of the Chinese government's treatment of Uyghurs. Read next: Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart | FXMAG.COM China reduced its debt by restricting the import of Australian coal in October 2020 (the official justification is that Australian coal does not meet Chinese environmental standards). Before that, Beijing had raised customs duties on Australian wines significantly and had also limited the supply of lamb from two major Australian suppliers. A portion of the Australian supply of beef and barley was also suspended by Chinese customs officials because they claimed it did not meet PRC sanitary standards. China put a total ban on coal imports from Australia in November 2020. In Chinese seaports, 53 bulk vessels carrying Australian coal have gathered. China started releasing coking coal from Australia to customers about a year later, in October 2021, but only the coal that had been discharged at ports before the import restriction took effect. Moreover, it was recently revealed that China is examining the idea of partially lifting the embargo on the import of Australian coal, 2.5 years after the start of the trade war. As of yet, this is unofficial information; Bloomberg journalists reported the corresponding insider. They claim that yesterday's meeting of the People's Republic of China's State Committee for Development and Reform resulted in the approval of new coal purchases for this year for four major importers (China Baowu Steel Group Corp., China Datang Corp., China Huaneng Group Co., and China Energy Investment Corp.). Information at hand indicates that imports could start up again as early as April 1. And even though the insider's report hasn't been formally validated, most analysts lean toward thinking that it's real. Australia and China have recently noticeably improved relations. The development of relations between China and Australia, in particular, was credited to Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong's working trip to China in December, which led Chinese President Xi Jinping to claim that it "contributes to strengthening stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region." The Bloomberg story from today needs to be seen in light of the aforementioned events in a broader sense. Naturally, the PRC's "green light" for coal supply is significant, but traders saw China's action as a strong signal to cease the covert trade war. You probably already know that China is Australia's main trading partner, so the Australian response makes sense. The COVID infection outbreak may have already peaked in several of the biggest cities, according to statements made by several pertinent experts that were published in the news today. Although this claim is very debatable (mainly as a result of the information blackout), it served its purpose by contributing to the general mood of the time. Technically speaking, the daily chart's upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, or the 0.6890 level, is being tested by the AUD/USD pair. The Ichimoku indicator's lines, which formed a bullish "Line Parade" signal, are all above the price, as well. Long positions should be prioritized, according to the current technical situation. At the same time, long positions should only be taken into account until buyers pass through the 0.6890 resistance level. The top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart, which corresponds to the next price barrier of 0.7030, will be made accessible by traders in this scenario. The "well-being" of the US dollar, which in turn depends on the Fed's future actions and intentions, will determine whether this goal is met. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from its December meeting, which have the power to bolster or weaken the dollar across the market, will determine the medium-term fate of the AUD/USD northern trend. Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331453
Intel, Mastercard and Visa are ones of the companies who take over stage today

US dollar index: what will be the signal for building short positions?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 16:29
The focus of traders today is the publication (at 15:00 GMT) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report with key indicators on the U.S. manufacturing sector (forecast to decline from 49.0 to 48.5 in December), as well as the minutes from the December FOMC meeting (at 19:00 GMT). The monthly ISM report publishes (among other data) the PMI in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, which is an important indicator of the state of this sector and the U.S. economy as a whole. The relative decline of the index and the result below 50 is seen as a negative factor for the U.S. dollar, as it indicates a slowdown in business activity. The minutes from the December Fed meeting may indicate further actions of the U.S. central bank. At the moment, most market participants expect the Fed to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75% on February 1. As you know, in December, the Fed leaders raised the interest rate by 0.50% after raising the rate by 0.75% in June, July, September and November. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during the press conference that much more evidence is needed to be sure that inflation will fall, holding interest rates at peak levels until they are really confident that inflation will decline in a sustainable way. "That 4.7% unemployment rate is still a strong labor market", Powell said. The Fed "hasn't reached a sufficiently restrictive policy level yet... there is some rate hike to go while the FOMC continues to consider risks to inflation as upward." It may surpise the market if the Fed hikes interest rates by 0.50% or even 0.75%, rather than 0.25%, at its January 31 and February 1 meetings. However, for Fed policymakers to have more of an argument for that, we have to wait for the updated data on consumer inflation in the U.S. on January 12. And here, we expect a further decline of inflation in December to 6.7% from 7.1%, 7.7%, 8.2%, 8.3%, 8.5%, and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Clearly, if the outlook is confirmed, supporters of the Fed's super tight monetary policy slowdown will have more arguments on their side.     And this week, the first important argument for the Fed's leaders when making such a decision will be the publication (on Friday at 13:30 GMT) of the monthly report of the U.S. Department of Labor with data for December. The state of the labor market (together with GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Wages and salaries are expected to have continued to rise in December, while unemployment remained at pre-pandemic lows. The weak point in the Labor Department's report may be the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Forecasts assumed figures to grow by +200,000 in December (preliminary forecast assumed NFP with a value of +57,000) after rising by +263,000 in November. If the figure is weaker than the forecast and is below +150,000, the probability of a softer interest rate decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting will increase. Conversely, if the data from the U.S. Department of Labor report exceeds market expectations, with a strong Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation report (January 12), market participants will expect another tough decision from the Fed leaders and an interest rate hike of at least 0.50%. The general conclusion that can be drawn from Powell's speech at the December 14 press conference is that "in order to achieve a sufficient level of tightening, it is necessary to continue to raise rates." This means that interest rates will continue to rise. In fact, this is a bullish factor for the dollar. In the meantime, the dollar remains under pressure, and its DXY index is developing a downward trend. DXY futures are currently trading near 103.85, 70 pips above the local low (since July 2022) of 103.15 reached at the end of December. The dollar is in desperate need of strong news or macro economic drivers. Maybe it will get one this week. Or not—if the aforementioned reports expected today and Friday do not meet the expectations of the market and dollar buyers.   From a technical point of view, the dollar index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal) continues to trade in the medium-term bear market zone, below the key resistance levels 105.40, 104.45. The signal for building up short positions will be a breakdown of the last month's low at 103.36. Read next: Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart | FXMAG.COM Long-term downside targets for DXY are at 100.00, 98.55 and 93.00. A breakdown of support at 93.00, in turn, will mark a breakdown of the global bullish trend of the DXY. Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-07 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331455
The Data May Keep The British Pound (GBP) From Rising

According to Samir Klishi, US dollar may be rising this week

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 16:19
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar on Tuesday and a powerful fall toward the level of 1.1883. Within a few hours, the British pound had already seen a reversal and had returned to the 1.2007 level. The pair is currently attempting to regain control of 1.2007. If this occurs, the growth process may continue in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2111). The increase in quotes since 1.2007 will help to restart the decline in the direction of 1.1883. The first aspect of yesterday to consider is the motion in various directions. The British pound fluctuated throughout the day, rising and falling, and at the time of writing, it is only 20 points away from its opening position from the previous day. Trading was therefore highly active yesterday, but neither the dollar nor the pound gained significantly. Although yesterday's information background was quite thin, traders have already started practicing trading during the Friday release of significant numbers. The two wavered, emerged from the side passage, and are now only able to move vertically but in a specific direction. Read next: Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart | FXMAG.COM Another point I'd like to bring up is the FOMC protocol, which may provide some insight into how high US interest rates will eventually be. Numerous economists now anticipate that the likelihood of a sharper tightening of monetary policy will rise to 5.50–5.75% during the coming weeks. This, in my opinion, is what supports the US dollar. The dollar may restart growth if the Fed minutes confirm the "hawkish" assumptions. Everything on Friday will depend on information about the US labor market and unemployment. Bear traders will be helped by strong reports. I'd think there's a good probability the dollar will keep rising this week. The pair closed under the upward trend corridor and consolidated under the 1.2008 level on the 4-hour chart. Since traders' sentiment is currently turning "bearish," I believe the consolidation of quotes under the upward trend corridor to be the most crucial phase. Now, it is possible to continue the price decline in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1709). Divergences that are maturing are not seen in any indication. Report on Commitments of Traders (COT): The sentiment among traders in the "non-commercial" category over the last week has shifted more "bearish" than it did the week before. The number of short contracts increased by 10,585 units, while the number of long contracts held by investors increased by 5,301 units. However, the major players' overall outlook is still "bearish," and there are still more short-term contracts than long-term contracts. However, during the past few months, a significant change has taken place, and presently there is not a significant disparity between the amount of long and short positions held by speculators. There was a threefold change a few months ago. As a result, the pound's chances have greatly improved recently. However, given that the 4-hour chart crossed above the three-month ascending corridor, the British pound may soon continue to decline. The following is the UK and US news calendar: United States - ISM manufacturing sector business activity index United States - FOMC protocol There are no noteworthy events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK or the US. The background information's impact on today's traders' attitudes will be minimal. GBP/USD forecast and trading suggestions: In the event of a new close at the 1.2007 level with a target of 1.1883, I advise selling the pound. When the British pound is locked above the 1.2007 level on the hourly chart, it will be possible to buy it with a target of 1.2111. Relevance up to 11:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331445
China Steps Into Bull Market,  How Much The Bank Of England Will Be Raising Its Rates?

The Bank Of England Urgently Needs To Tame Stubbornly High Inflation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 15:05
Before the end of the year, we asked InstaForex about UK economy, which is expected to decrease significantly, as we approach the end of the year. Let's have a look how do they see the near future of the UK economy and what would BoE consider as a gauge ahead of next interest rate decision. Although the UK GDP for the third quarter turned out to be noticeably worse than expected, the reading was still relatively positive. In annual terms, economic expansion contracted to 1.9% from 4.0%. However, a 2.0% economic growth is quite acceptable for Western countries. At first glance, it might seem that the British economy remains stable. However, in quarterly terms, it shrank by 0.3%. It indicates that the economy is gradually sliding into a recession. Notably, analysts have been predicting such a scenario for a long time. The energy crunch has considerably crippled the eurozone economy as well as the British one. The EU managed to fill its storage sites and avoid fuel shortages. However, it would hardly help it in the future. Even after some stabilization, energy prices soared by two or three times compared to last year. Such sharp price swings adversely affect the European economy. The manufacturing sector is bearing the brunt. Production costs have risen dramatically. Manufacturers are forced to reduce the profit margin to boost their market competitiveness. However, this move leads to a bigger extension of the payback period. However, in the EU,  the payback period is almost the longest one in the world. A few years ago, the payback period of individual industrial enterprises could stretch to 50 years. It made investments in the European economy less attractive.  Over such a long time, investors will only be able to return the invested funds, abandoning hopes for any profit. Recently, the situation has become even worse. It will inevitably lead to an increase in unemployment and a reduction in tax revenues.  Thus, many European manufacturers, including British ones, are now mulling over options for moving industrial production to other regions with lower energy costs and cheap labor. It will inevitably lead to an increase in unemployment and a reduction in tax revenues. In turn, governments will have to deal with worsening social policy, e.g. payments of pensions and benefits.  The situation is extremely challenging. However, those problems appeared a long time ago. The energy crisis and other economic woes have just exposed those cracks.  Things are getting worse due to the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance. It is adamant when it comes to rate increases. As a result, the borrowing costs are rising, which further extends the payback period. Such a problem is quite acute for those who are opening new enterprises or are going to modernize the existing ones.  Even if British companies decide to keep firms and staff, it will be difficult for them even to repair equipment. As for its upgrade, it would seem an attainable goal. Naturally, such companies will quickly lose market competitiveness and lower their production volumes. It will be a rather long and painful downturn.  Read next: Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart | FXMAG.COM The only thing the Bank of England can do is to reduce borrowing costs The Bank of England urgently needs to tame stubbornly high inflation. According to the latest data, inflation slowed to 10.7% from 11.1%. However, it is too early to talk about a steady decline in consumer prices. In June, inflation also dropped to 9.9% from 10.1%. Shortly after, it climbed again. Moreover, its rise was facilitated by supply chain disruptions and production cuts.That is, demand is constantly growing despite the shortage of goods. This is the main reason for an uptick in consumer prices. To some extent, the problem can be resolved at least partially by increasing the output volume. However, this option looks unlikely given the high cost of investment in the industrial sector.  The only thing the Bank of England can do is to reduce borrowing costs. Besides, the watchdog is not responsible for all other issues such as legislation and taxes. Judging by the results of the last meeting, the regulator may start lowering interest rates. Additionally, speculators were surprised that two of the nine board members voted for a rate cut. The Bank of England tries to act preemptively Once inflation starts to decline confidently, the Bank of England will stop the key interest rate hike. Then, after a small pause, it is likely to loosen its monetary policy. It is quite possible that the first key rate cut will take place as early as the first part of 2023. Notably, the BoE was among the first central banks that launched monetary policy tightening. In general, the economic situation in both the US and Europe is almost the same. On both sides of the Atlantic, most structural problems are identical. The Bank of England tries to act preemptively, whereas the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are closely monitoring the effect of these actions. If the result is not negative, they immediately take almost the same measures. At least in the last few years, the situation has been developing according to this scenario. There is no wonder. The fact is that the Bank of England is managing a large economy, but it cannot be compared with the economies of the US and the European Union. In other words, the Fed and the European Central Bank have weightier responsibilities. Any unwise decision may lead to alarming global consequences. Apart from inflation, central banks should also take into account the labor market condition. The Bank of England does not have difficulties with this issue. In the UK, the unemployment rate is 3.7%. In the last few months, it has been rising, thus approaching its usual level of 4.0%. This, in turn, provides the BoE with another reason to cut its benchmark rate, especially if the unemployment rate slightly exceeds 4.0%. This is likely to happen when the BoE sees a steady slowdown in inflation. It is highly likely that in early 2023, the Bank of England will raise the key interest rate once more. This time, analysts expect a 25-basis-point rise to 3.75% from 3.5% aimed at reinforcing progress in combat against inflation. At the second meeting of the year, the key rate will remain unchanged so that the regulator can analyze the effect of its previous decisions. At the following meeting, which is scheduled for May 11, the central bank may cut the benchmark rate to 3.5% from 3.75%. All the following cuts will be more moderate compared to the hikes in 2022. They are likely to be limited by rather high inflation and fears that it may resume surging amid a rapid drop in interest rates. It is highly possible that by the end of the year, the key interest rate will be lowered just to 3.0%. Could such measures support the UK economy? The UK is unlikely to avoid a recession. The fact is that the US is expected to slip into a recession, thus negatively affecting the European economy. However, the loosening of monetary policy may cushion the possible impact. Nevertheless, the Bank of England is unable to alter the situation considerably. It simply has no tools to affect structural economic problems. Thus, the regulator has only a minor influence on expenses in the industrial sector. It can settle just the financial component of the issue, which is of minor importance. The Bank of England can postpone the relocation of enterprises outside the United Kingdom, thus allowing the government to take effective steps if it decides to take this opportunity. 
World Platinum Investment Council CEO: ""The Platinum Market Is Forecast To Be In Deficit"

World Platinum Investment Council CEO: "The Platinum Market Is Forecast To Be In Deficit"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 14:45
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said in its latest quarterly report that the global platinum market is forecast to run a deficit of 303 koz, up just 2% to 7,466k koz. The WPIC cited supply constraints and increased demand for bars and coins, revising its 2022 market surplus forecast down 17% to 804 koz. "The platinum market is forecast to be in deficit after two consecutive years of significant surpluses. This reflects supply that remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels and demand growth, despite the unfavorable economic outlook," said World Platinum Investment Council CEO Trevor Raymond. "Platinum [is] in a somewhat unique position versus other commodities in that demand is forecast to continue to grow, despite the recessionary outlook." A WPIC report showed that in the third quarter of 2022, demand for automotive platinum rose 25% year-on-year. The report says that a combination of higher passenger car production, tighter HDV emissions regulations in China and India, and growing substitution of platinum for palladium will lead to an expected increase in demand for platinum of around 12% (+329 koz) this year, to 2,964 koz. Automotive demand is expected to grow at the same pace in 2023 as it did in 2022, up 11% to 3,288 koz. Another push for platinum prices could come from pressure on wages and power shortages at mines in South Africa, the world's largest producer of platinum. Relevance up to 11:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331443
Geco.one COO says Bitcoin reaching $250K in 2023 is considered as impossible by other analysts as BTC does not exceed $60,000

Bitcoin: As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 14:17
Some time ago we asked InstaForex analyst to comment on the leading cryptocurrency, which, in the past few weeks, seemed to be impressively stable. Have all events of 2022 resulted in BTC holding at $16,000 for ever? FXMAG.COM: In the past few weeks, bitcoin seemed to be impressively stable. Do you agree that all events of this (so far) year have resulted in BTC holding at $16,000 for ever? Last week, the cryptocurrency market was trading downwards along with the S&P500 which was unable to sustain momentum and plunged to 3,825 from 4,100. BTC, in turn, returned to $16,000, and its fall was capped at this level. Has it really hit the bottom which is so much speculated about? There is no definite answer to this, because there is no bottom as it is. Whatever steep fall an asset experiences, it can decline even lower depending on the circumstances. Can the level of $16,000 be considered as support? To start with, in late November, the quotes neared the level of $15,000. Speaking of BTC support,this level could be considered. Massive FUD Year to date, the cryptocurrency market has experienced several massive FUD’s: • A crash of UST algorithmic stablecoin and LUNA token • Bankruptcy of crypto lending company Celsius Network • BNB Smart Chain hack • Bankruptcy of FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges, and arrest of its founder Sam Bankman-Fried. However, the cryptocurrency market did not experience any major changes despite these negative factors. It means that we may never see Bitcoin’s “death” which many experts foretold for over 466 times in 12 years of its existence. In fact, we are witnessing the sturdiness at its finest. The cryptocurrency market frequently falls under various limitations, experiences massive FUD’s, but continues rising nonetheless. Therefore, if the current FUD is unable to crash the crypto market, why would Bitcoin be unable to hit a new all-record high in X-period of time. Let’s get back to the question about the price stabilization level, be it at 16,000 or 15,000. It all depends on the global economic development and stability of the US stock market. Financial markets should turn to the upside to revive interest of buyers of risky assets, and cryptocurrencies are risky assets. The Federal Reserve is the main driving force for the US stock market. As long as the Fed keeps a tough monetary policy stance, markets are unable to develop any sustainable growth. Read next: Reversal Of Fed Policy May Prove Crucial For Bitcoin's Moves| FXMAG.COM Investors and traders are eager to get any clear hints from the Fed, such as taming the inflation, the end to the rate hikes cycle, and a possibility of quantitative easing if such a measure becomes justified by the economic conditions. All these factors can fuel a rise in the US stock market, which will also boost the cryptocurrency market in whatever condition it were. What does technical analysis tell us? It’s been a month already since bitcoin has hit a swing low of the medium-term downward trend. It is a clear indication of a downward trend slowdown and a possibility of reversal. At the same time, we cannot state that the reversal is coming soon, because this pause near the bottom can be interpreted in different ways. Specifically, traders may consider it a correction phase as part of a downward trend, or some shift in trading forces. In this case, the current trend is likely to continue if the price holds below $15,000. According to the bullish scenario, the current slowdown in the downtrend may subsequently turn into a sideways channel, which will form new signals about a possible trend reversal. Simply put, the market may start growing. As for the price levels, one should pay attention to the level of $18,000 that has been recently hit. Probably, this level may well serve a starting point for buyers in case the price holds above it on a daily chart. The further BTC growth may develop in a ladder style: $18,000 ---> $20,000 ---> $22,000 ---> $25,000 ---> $30,000. General conditions on the crypto market When analyzing the general market capitalization of the crypto industry, we can see a specific consolidation at the bottom. It means that crypto assets no longer fall in price, having reached a notional bottom. Speaking of numbers, this bottom can be estimated at $790 billion - $1 trillion (Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization). As usual, Bitcoin dominated the market, accounting for a 40% share, or $324,109,120,123. Remarkably, the gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum is narrowing. The Ethereum dominance is 18.4%, while its market cap is $149,068,809,391. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been fluctuating between 20 and 40 points, which signals depression in the market. If the index breaks above 50, a new bullish wave is likely to hit the market.
WTI Crude Oil Is Expected Further Downside Movement

The Oil Market Is Showing A Strong Local Drop In Prices

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 11:32
Problems of tech companies in the US appeared again, causing the local market to fall. Similarly, the European market fell because right after a significant increase, shares of TESLA and APPLE collapsed by more than 14% and 4% respectively, resulting in a negative closing of stock indices. This shattered all hopes of a rise in demand for equities, which had been expected at the start of the new year. The forex market could not stay away from the situation of the stock market either as dollar began to rise before the opening of the US trading session. The driver was the growing expectations of lower inflation in Europe, which was influenced by the CPI data from Germany. This increased the likelihood that other global central banks will follow the Fed in taking a pause in raising interest rates. The oil market also came under pressure, showing a strong local drop in prices. Most likely, the negative sentiment will continue if the minutes of the December Fed meeting, which is due out today, do not hint at a pause in rate hikes in the 1st quarter of the new fiscal year. The labor market data not showing a slowdown in growth will give a similar effect. The turning point could be the upcoming US consumer inflation figures as markets will surely shift from bearish to bullish once the data shows a slowdown. This could be accompanied by a marked weakening of dollar. Many remain optimistic on a global reversal in markets. Forecasts for today: USD/JPY The pair is trading below 131.40. If market sentiment improves today, there will be a local recovery towards 132.50. AUD/USD The pair is trading below 0.6825. Again, if the situation in the markets stabilizes and investor sentiment improves, the pair will rise above 0.6825 and surge to 0.6900 Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-06 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331411
Bitcoin Has A Potential For The Breakout Play

Reversal Of Fed Policy May Prove Crucial For Bitcoin's Moves

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 10:15
Bitcoin remains unwaveringly committed to an indifferent flat movement in the first days of January 2023. The cryptocurrency managed to achieve local success and form a green candle, thanks to which the asset reached the level of $16.8k. However, if we trace the weekly path of Bitcoin to current positions, we can note low trading volumes, as well as low investment activity of long-term investors. Certain categories of hodlers continue to sell off their BTC holdings. According to data from Glassnode, the number of addresses with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC has dropped to 2,000. The figure has reached a three-year low, indicating a lack of consensus among long-term investors regarding Bitcoin. In part, this fact indicates that the period of large-scale consolidation and redistribution of BTC volumes continues. However, throughout 2022, the market became convinced that the best catalyst for the movement of BTC coins is a crisis situation and a sharp drop in price. Is Bitcoin heading toward $10k? According to experts of the largest investment company VanEck, the cryptocurrency market is heading for this scenario. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of 2023 will be characterized by an aggravation of crisis processes and high volatility. It is expected that Bitcoin will continue its downward movement and update the local bottom near the $10k–$12k levels. According to VanEck experts, this will be affected by the current state of the mining industry. The rise in the price of energy resources and the cost of mining BTC provoke huge losses among the miners. Recall that, on average, for each BTC mined, mining companies incur a loss of about $3,000. It also recently became known that the total credit debt of public mining companies is more than $4 billion. VanEck experts consider these factors to be key in the future fall in the price of the cryptocurrency. Recall that the warning about "several difficult months" was contained in a letter to the employees of the largest crypto exchange Binance. Also, the average percentage of BTC price drop from the high is 85%. As part of the current bear market, the asset lost about 77%. Presumably, when the price of Bitcoin reaches the $10k–$12k area, the percentage of the fall from the high will be approximately 82%–85%. Given these data, forecasts from VanEck experts have every chance of becoming a reality. SPX and Bitcoin A regular guest of analysis of the situation around Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index is more relevant today than ever. If you look at the SPX annual price chart, you can see that despite the massive drop after 2021, the asset is still overheated. Given the approaching recession and the focus of investors on capital preservation, the fall of SPX may continue. Bank of America and BNP Paribas forecast that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at $3,400. As of January 4, the stock index quotes are close to $3,800. A fall to the $3,400 level will mean that the asset's capitalization will lose another 8%–10%. Given that SPX is the flagship of the stock market, a corresponding movement should be expected on other instruments. BTC/USD Analysis In the medium term, there is every reason to believe that Bitcoin will update the local bottom, which will cause the next stage of capitulation and redistribution of capital. At a distance of a year, the asset may resume its upward movement and reach the level of $30k, according to VanEck experts. A key factor in the recovery movement of the Bitcoin price may be a reversal of the Fed's policy. More than 2/3 of economists from the 23 largest financial institutions expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2023, according to a WSJ survey. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there are plans to increase the key rate to the 5%–5.5% level. At current rates, the indicator will reach the indicated milestone by March–April 2023, just in time for the end of the first quarter of 2023. Results The crypto market has survived most of the bear market, however, many factors point to the need for a final dive. Given this, we should not expect significant recovery movements in the BTC price in the first half of 2023. The main stage of the price recovery and consolidation movement in preparation for the 2024 bull market will begin in the second half of 2023. Until then, the investment environment in the crypto market will be toxic and unattractive due to the recession and future bankruptcies of crypto companies.   Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331423
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

Gold Price Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.01.2023 08:01
Gold price is trading around 1,845.88 above the 7/8 Murray, above the SMA 21, and EMA 200. It remains firmly in the uptrend but is showing signs of exhaustion. The bulls are determined to push gold up and enable it to reach the psychological level of 1,900 in the short term. In case the price continues to rise, it is likely to reach the strong resistance of 1,860 and beyond this level, it could reach 8/8 Murray around 1,875. The daily pivot point is around 1,838. A bounce around this zone could offer an opportunity to resume buying and gold could continue its rise until it reaches its target at 1,875 (8/8 Murray). On the contrary, in case gold falls below 1,835, it is expected to reach the key support zone of the 21 SMA located around 1,823. If the bearish pressure increases, the instrument could reach the bottom of the uptrend channel and the support of 6/8 Murray around 1,812.50. During the American session, gold is likely to trade with strong volatility because investors will be waiting for crucial data to be published such as the ISM manufacturing PMI and the FOMC meeting minutes. The key zone for gold is located at 1,850 which has become a strong barrier. Trading below this level, a technical reversal is likely to follow and the price could reach 6/8 Murray at 1,812. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for a correction to around 1,838 to buy, with targets at 1,850 and 1,875. On the contrary, if there is a close below the level of 1,835 on the 4-hour chart, the sell signal will be activated, with targets at 1,823 (21 SMA) and 1,812 (6/8). Relevance up to 05:00 2023-01-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307252
The Outlook Of The GBP/USD Currency Pair

British pound against US dollar - technical analysis for January 3rd. What can we expect from GBP/USD?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 21:07
Overview : The EUR/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2077, while minor resistance is seen at 1.1991. Support is found at the levels of 1.1904 and 1.1841. Pivot point has already been set at the level of 1.2077. Equally important, the EUR/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.2077, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 1.2077. The pair rose to the top around 1.2077 from the level of 1.1904 (coincides with the last bearish wave at the same time frame). Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.1904), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. Read next: Eurodollar: dominance of hawkishness in tomorrow's Fed minutes may support greenback| FXMAG.COM The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. In consequence, the EUR/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 1.1904. The level of 0.6695 is expected to act as the major support today. We expect the EUR/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend towards the target level of 1.2163. On the downtrend: If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1904, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1904. So, the market will decline further to 1.1840 and 1.1904 to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.1840. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.1803, then this scenario may be invalidated. Relevance up to 20:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307232
China's inflation came at 1.8%, US crude oil (WTI) gained over 4% yesterday

Eurodollar: dominance of hawkishness in tomorrow's Fed minutes may support greenback

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 20:58
This morning, the euro/dollar pair abruptly collapsed to the base of the fifth figure, updating a three-week low in price. Although the price hit the 1.0700 support level (the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe) yesterday, the price has since retreated. Interestingly, there was no formal explanation of a fundamental nature for why there was such a rapid bend to the south. Unemployment in Germany maintained its November level in December (5.5%, with a modest increase, projected to 5.6%), and there were 13 thousand fewer unemployed people than expected, as opposed to projections for a 15 thousand increase Today's economic schedule for EUR/USD is relatively quiet: The crucial release on Tuesday will only be available in the afternoon. We shall learn the early figures for Germany's December inflation growth. German labor market data were released in the first half of the day, although this release is unrelated to the market's overall strengthening of the US dollar. In addition, the report was positive: unemployment in Germany maintained its November level in December (5.5%, with a modest increase, projected to 5.6%), and there were 13 thousand fewer unemployed people than expected, as opposed to projections for a 15 thousand increase. Trading in EUR/USD, however, disregarded this release. The pair moved in lockstep with the US dollar index, which in a matter of hours went from 103.23 to a daily high of 104.54. All currency pairs in the major group were impacted by these dynamics, and the euro/dollar pair was no exception. Regarding the nature of the US currency's behavior at the start of Tuesday's European session, there is no agreement on the market. I believe that several diverse basic reasons that were simmering last week and have now become apparent have increased demand for a secure dollar. Generally speaking, the strengthening of the dollar is advanced in character on the eve of the release of the minutes from the Fed and nonfarm meeting in December, as well as against the backdrop of rising anti-risk sentiment. Due to unstable market conditions, it is dangerous to initiate short bets on the EUR/USD pair at the moment. First of all, the suddenness of the price cut and the absence of a convincing explanation are concerning. There are numerous verbal explanations of the current situation available. It is clear that China indirectly supports the safe dollar. Let me remind you that the Chinese government repealed several restrictions associated with the "zero tolerance" COVID policy towards the end of last year. Following that, the prevalence of coronavirus in the country skyrocketed. Unofficial reports claim that between 250 and 300 million Chinese became ill in December, overwhelming the PRC's healthcare infrastructure. According to media reports, hospitals are congested in most areas. It is also reported how busy the crematoriums are (the WHO reports that in China, only 40% of those over 80 received the recommended three doses of the vaccine). The market's stance on the recent events in China has shifted multiple times during the past several weeks. At first, the safe dollar was supported by an anti-risk mentality. The markets' appetite for risk then rose once again when Beijing made it apparent that it would not tighten its COVID policy. However, it appears that the pendulum has now swung back toward panic, giving dollar bulls cause for increased confidence. Additionally, the rise in the number of cases is secondary; China is not likely unable to control a significant outbreak of the disease. The market is still seeing the situation in China through the lens of potential economic repercussions. And these repercussions appeared quickly. Read next: 2023 Predictions: Peter Garnry - Our target for S&P 500 is still around the 3,200 level sometime during the year leading to an overall drawdown of around 33% from the peak in early 2022 | FXMAG.COM Today's Caixin manufacturing PMI index for China dropped to 49.0, placing it in negative territory Thus, contrary to expectations of a reduction to 48 points, the manufacturing PMI for December in China decreased to 47.0 according to the data released today and on Saturday. For the third consecutive month, the indicator is below the critical 50-point threshold. Today's Caixin manufacturing PMI index for China dropped to 49.0, placing it in negative territory. This dynamic, according to many analysts, is brought on by the worsening of China's epidemiological situation, which is causing a temporary labor shortage and more supply chain disruptions. The Chinese factor is not the dollar's only ally, though. Before the release of the December Fed meeting minutes, in my opinion, the dollar is in high demand. Let me remind you that the December meeting's outcomes put pressure on the US dollar due to Jerome Powell's dovish remarks (which permitted a downward estimate of the PEPP's current tightening cycle's terminal point) and a pause in rate hikes. John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, addressed the audience after the meeting and shocked the markets with his hawkish stance. He specifically stated that the rate of increase in consumer prices in the United States is "stubbornly high." In addition, he said that the regulator would increase the base rate "as far as it takes to bring inflation under control," which might go over the proclaimed maximum of 5.1%. The United States inflation rate has started to decline, but, according to Williams, who has a permanent vote on the Open Market Operations Committee, "a considerably more significant slowdown is required so that the Fed may soften its position on the need to tighten policy." The dollar will get a lot of support if the document's wording is primarily hawkish The minutes of the December meeting have become more important in light of these contradictory signals. The dollar will get a lot of support if the document's wording is primarily hawkish. Now, the value of the dollar is rising in advance following the "buy on rumors, sell on facts." However, the fact that the EUR/USD price fell by 150 points without any discernible, tangible, or clear causes is concerning. Since the aforementioned fundamental elements grew in strength throughout the New Year period and now have the function of a trigger, it may be concluded that such dynamics are also caused by the fact that today is the first working day of 2023. Given that such impulsive moves on such fragile bases are typically unstable, it is impossible to discuss the priority of short positions on the EUR/USD pair in this instance. Right now, it is best to adopt a wait-and-see strategy, keeping an eye on how the price moves around the 1.0505 support level. The Fed procedure in this situation can play a significant role in the medium term, supporting or weakening the US currency. If the bears can break through this price barrier, then in this case it will be possible to talk about the first symptoms of a resumption of the southern trend. Relevance up to 12:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331381
Forex: What can we expect from Euro against US dollar - January 17th

Forex: Euro against US dollar - technical analysis by InstaForex's Mourad El Keddani (January 3rd)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 20:35
Overview : The EUR/USD pair drops sharply today but stays above 1.0520 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.0520 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 1 hour RSI(14). Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.0520 support and below. Focus stays on 38.2% retracement Fibonacci levels of 1.0594 (morning high) to 1.0548 at 1.0520. Rejection by 1.0594 will suggest that price actions from 1.0520 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 1.0500 at a later stage. The EUR/USD pair traded lower and closed the day in the red near the price of 1.0548. Today it, on the contrary, grew a little, having risen to the level of 1.0594. On the hourly chart the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the moving average line MA (100) H1 (1.0594). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. Based on the foregoing, it is probably worth sticking to the south direction in trading, and as long as the EUR/USD pair remains below MA 100 H1, it may be necessary to look for entry points to sell for the formation of a correction. The EUR/USD pair hit the weekly pivot point (1.0594) and resistance 1, because of the series of relatively equal highs and equal lows. But, the pair has dropped down in order to bottom at the point of 10520. Hence, the major support was already set at the level of 1.0520. RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market as well as the current price is also above the moving average 100 Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding with the major support this week. Additionally, the RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market as well as the current price is also above the moving average 100. Therefore, it will be advantageous to sell below the resistance area of 1.0594 with the first target at 1.0500. From this point, if the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.0594, the EUR/USD pair may resume it movement to 1.0500 to test the weekly support 1. the, continue towards 1.0450 (the weekly support 2). Read next: 2023 Predictions: Natural gas prices in Europe and the US may in the nearterm struggle to find upside momentum with inventories staying elevated due to mild winter weather and consumers curbing demand| FXMAG.COM Stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at 1.0639 . However, sustained break of 1.0594 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0639. On the upside, however, firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.0639 to 1.0671 from 1.0671 at 1.0713 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.0713. Relevance up to 18:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307228
Gold's beginning of the year - Oanda's Market Insights presented by Craig Erlam

Precious metals: What can we expect from gold price? According to InstaForex, "it could reach the 1,844 - 1,850 zone again"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 20:30
Early in the American session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,834.47. The asset is making a strong reversal, having reached 7-month highs. Gold is below the 7/8 Murray line which represents a technical reversal. Any technical rebound towards this zone in the next few hours will be considered a sell signal. Yesterday during the European session, XAU/USD returned to the levels of May 2022, reaching the level of 1,849.37. The current setback is due to a strengthening of the US dollar but we could expect a recovery in gold in the next few hours and it could reach the 1,844 - 1,850 zone again. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is in a strong uptrend and it is likely that there will be a technical bounce in the next few hours and the price could reach 7/8 Murray and the high of 1,849. In case it fails to consolidate above this level, a double-top pattern could be formed which would be a clear signal for a technical reversal. For this reason, the eagle indicator reached the extremely overbought zone. Therefore, any bounce in gold and as long as it consolidates below the psychological level of 1,850 could be seen as an opportunity to sell. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for gold to reach the 1,845 area to sell, with targets at 1,830 and 1,817 (21 SMA). The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal. Any technical bounce will be seen as a signal to sell. Relevance up to 16:00 2023-01-08 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307212
The Global Recession Fears Are For Now Taking A Backseat With Europe Weathering The Energy Crisis Better And China’s Economy Reopening

Forecasts Of Recession And Decline In 10-Year Bonds In The US

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 15:03
Barclays Capital Inc. says 2023 will be one of the worst years for the global economy. Ned Davis Research estimates a 65% chance of a severe global economic downturn, while Fidelity International believes a hard landing is inevitable. Obviously, many agree that as the Federal Reserve continues its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, a recession will occur which, no matter how mild it is, will force the central bank to consider a dovish tilt in policy even if inflation is at its peak. However, this forecast may be wrong, just like what happened last year, when analysts failed to predict the 2022 cost-of-living crisis and double-digit market losses. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and UBS Asset Management, for their part, see the economy thriving as price growth slows, signaling big gains for investors if they get the market right. Deutsche Bank predicts that the S&P 500 index will rise to 4,500 in the first half of the year and then fall by 25% in the third quarter. It will return to 4,500 by the end of 2023 as investors look to rebound. UBS Group expects 10-year bond yields in the US to fall to 2.65% by the end of the year due to renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, investment firms are in no mood to discuss the crypto industry as they have spent the previous years spinning speculations. Now, references to it have all but disappeared in forecasts for 2023   Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331367
Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

Traders Of The EUR/USD Pair Can Assume Consolidation With A Subsequent Rebound

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 14:57
Today's European trading session began with a sharp strengthening of the dollar, including against the euro. Perhaps this is how market participants, who follow euro quotes, reacted to yesterday's publication of European macro data, which turned out to be rather weak (yesterday, major world exchanges did not work, and there was low activity of traders and low trading volumes on the market). The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for December came out at 47.1 against the forecast and the previous value of 47.4. The manufacturing PMI for the entire euro area remained at around 47.8. The indices are also below the value of 50, which separates the growth of activity from its slowdown. It is also possible that on the first trading day of the new year, market participants are trying to protect themselves from the risks related to the rising coronavirus infections in China, high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the threat of a global recession, seeking refuge in a protective dollar. Thus, the EUR/USD pair lost 1.2% in the first hours of today's European session, falling by 130 points to the opening price of today's trading day. As of writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.0544, very close to the strong support at 1.0525. Considering such a sharp drop, literally in a couple of hours, as well as reaching a zone of strong support, from a technical point of view, near the current levels, we can assume consolidation with a subsequent rebound, given the general upward trend of the pair. European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said yesterday that the ECB needs to take further action to contain inflationary expectations, i.e., continue to tighten their monetary policy. As for today's economic calendar, the preliminary harmonised consumer prices (HICP) for Germany will be released at 13:00 (GMT). The index (CPI) is published by the EU Statistics Office. It is an indicator for inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. In normal economic conditions, rising prices force the country's central bank to raise interest rates to avoid excessive inflation (higher than the target set by the central bank). Therefore a rise in the index is positive for the national currency (under normal circumstances), and a decrease in the index (expected to 10.7% from 11.3% in November) is negative. At the beginning of the U.S. trading session, the updated PMI for the U.S. manufacturing sector (from S&P Global) will be released. Previous values were 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5, 52.2, 57.0, 59.2. The forecast for December is 46.2 (the preliminary estimate was 46.2), indicating a continued slowdown in this sector of the U.S. economy, which is a negative factor for the dollar. Relevance up to 12:00 2023-01-06 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331373
Bitcoin Is Showing A Sign That Sellers Are Losing Power

Bitcoin Is Experiencing The Most Bearish Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 12:24
Bitcoin greeted the New Year in absolute calm and updated its two-year low of trading volumes. The asset continued its consolidation period near the $16.5k level. However, the cryptocurrency intends to spend its birthday more brightly. After a local upward spurt to the $16.7k level, the main indicators of trading activity in the Bitcoin network continued their upward movement. This may mean that the cryptocurrency is preparing to end its period of consolidation and begin significant price movements. However, it is important to understand that, despite the possible attempts of the upward movement of Bitcoin, they will not be crowned with significant success. Despite the passage of peak moments, the sale of BTC coins by mining companies continues, which greatly complicates the upward movement of the cryptocurrency. The second key factor is the correlation between Bitcoin and SPX. The trading index completed the local bullish momentum and began to decline. The cryptocurrency duplicates the price action of the S&P 500 with a delay of several days, which may mean a retest of the $16.9k level and a subsequent decline to the usual levels. Bitcoin on-chain activity The network activity of Bitcoin does not show clear signals for the formation or the beginning of an upward movement. There is a divergence on the chart between volumes and the unique number of active addresses. This may indicate the activation of buyers and the presence of a local upward trend. But at the same time, low trading volumes indicate the absence of a large buyer that can significantly affect the price movement of the cryptocurrency. BTC/USD technical analysis On the daily chart, there are attempts to move the cryptocurrency up to the $16.9k level. Technical metrics show the development of bullish momentum and the continuation of the upward direction. RSI and stochastic oscillator are moving upward, indicating the activity of buyers. On the four-hour chart, the situation is not so rosy due to the activation of sellers around the $16.7k mark. At the end of yesterday's trading day, the price tested the $16.8k level, but subsequently began to decline. As of writing, Bitcoin is holding the $16.7k level, but for how long? Technical metrics on the 4H timeframe say that the bullish momentum has run its course, and the price will start to decline. The RSI reversed sharply to the downside, while the stochastic formed a bearish crossover. The signals were formed recently, which means that right now, the cryptocurrency is experiencing the most bearish pressure. Among the likely scenarios, it is worth highlighting a neutral option, in which an unsuccessful attempt to retest $16.8k ends near the $16.7k level. In this case, BTC continues to consolidate in the $16.5k–$16.7k range. In an unfavorable outcome, Bitcoin rolls back beyond the $16.5k level, and the price moves towards a $16k retest. Results The probability of a positive outcome in which Bitcoin breaks the $16.8k level and moves further upward to $17k is also possible. However, technical metrics and ongoing activity point to the main weakness of the attempt to realize bullish momentum—the absence of a strong buyer. If a major player does not appear soon and the price closes the trading day below $16.7k, we should expect a negative scenario to materialize. But when a major player appears, for example, after the opening of the U.S. markets, the probability of a neutral and positive outcome increases. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331355
The USD/JPY Pair Tends To Keep The Trend In A Sideways Direction

A Negative News Flow From China Provides Indirect Support For The USD/JPY Bears

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 11:53
The dollar-yen pair tested the psychologically important price level of 130.00 today, temporarily falling to the area of the 129th figure. The pair has updated a six-month low, but this is not surprising: USD/JPY bears consistently develops a downward trend. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price is now declining as part of the next wave of downward movement. Three weeks ago, the Bank of Japan provoked price turbulence, which turned out to be in favor of the national currency. In general, the downward rally began in October last year, when the pair reached a multi-year price high (151.96). After that, the Japanese authorities conducted another currency intervention, thereby extinguishing the upward impulse. And further events also turned out to be in favor of sellers: the dollar weakened against the backdrop of slowing inflation in the U.S. and a decrease in the Fed's aggressiveness, while the yen received unexpected support from the Japanese regulator. And all this happened and is happening against the background of a kind of "election race" for the post of head of the Bank of Japan: traders react to statements by possible successors of Haruhiko Kuroda (as a rule, these statements are quite hawkish). At the same time, the dovish statements of Kuroda himself, who is guaranteed to leave his position in April, are ignored by market participants. And now the yen, after a short respite in the pre-New Year period, continues to strengthen its position due to several fundamental factors. First, there is growing confidence in the market that the Bank of Japan, having doubled the yield ceiling on 10-year bonds in December, has taken only the first step towards normalizing monetary policy. Last week, on New Year's Eve, Kuroda refuted this assumption. He stated that this decision of the central bank was due to "market and technical reasons." But traders, apparently, are betting that the regulator will further weaken its policy of controlling the yield curve in the future or abandon it altogether. The market is increasingly talking about the possible implementation of such a scenario. In particular, Columbia University professor Takatoshi Ito (who worked with Kuroda at the Japanese Ministry of Finance in 1999–2001) recently said that such a decision by the central bank is a kind of prelude to the rejection of ultra-loose policy. He did not agree with the current head of the central bank that inflation in Japan will slow down this year. Arguing his position, Ito points to the latest data on the growth of the consumer price index: in November, annual consumer inflation reached 2.8%, even without taking into account energy and food prices. This means that inflation may remain above the 2% target level in 2023, even if prices for energy resources and products stop rising. Moreover, according to Ito, this year's wage negotiations are likely to lead to significant increases, boosting consumers' purchasing power, triggering another spike in prices, due to stronger demand. By the way, Takatoshi Ito is one of the candidates to replace Kuroda as head of the Bank of Japan. Other likely successors to Kuroda are also saying in one form or another that the Japanese regulator may have to take the next steps towards normalizing monetary policy. In particular, former Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Takehiko Nakao said that he favors a smooth transition from the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy. In my opinion, the market has formed a common position on the interpretation of the December decision of the Japanese Central Bank. And this position boils down to the fact that at the end of last year, the Bank of Japan marked the beginning of the end of the ultra-loose monetary policy. In turn, "hawkish" comments of Kuroda's possible successors are further confirmation of this assumption. The yen is in high demand on the back of such conclusions. Also, we should not forget that Japanese currency has a status of a "safe-haven," so a negative news flow from China provides indirect support for USD/JPY bears. On Saturday, it became known that China's official Manufacturing PMI for December dropped to 47.0, contrary to expectations of a 48-point decline. As we know, the 50-point mark separates contraction from growth, while the Manufacturing PMI has been below the key level for the third consecutive month. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released today, fell to 49.0 (with a forecast of a decline to 49.4). Economists polled by Reuters said the worsening epidemiological situation in China could lead to temporary labor shortages and increased supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, a new wave of coronavirus infection is spreading in China at an unprecedented rate. Thus, the existing fundamental background contributes to the further decline of the USD/JPY pair. Today, traders tested the 129.50 support level (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), but then retreated to the area of the 130th figure. There is no doubt that the bears will again storm this price barrier in the medium term, overcoming which will open the way for them to the next support level at 129.00 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the H4 timeframe). Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331353
The Price Of Lithium Hydroxide Is Forecast To Rise

The Price Of Lithium Hydroxide Is Forecast To Rise

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.01.2023 11:48
Global lithium production in 2021 hit 546,000 tonnes, which is 24% higher than in 2020 (439,000 tonnes). Australia was the largest producer, followed by Chile, China and Argentina. But even though Australia's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (DISER) said global output could reach 682,000 tonnes in 2022 and 1,034,000 tonnes in 2024, the total supply from mines is still insufficient to meet demand. New lithium projects, which are being developed to close the supply gap, will take time. Nevertheless, Lithium production in Australia is projected to rise from 247,000 tonnes LCE in 2021 to 335,000 tonnes in 2022. It will also hit 387,000 tonnes in 2023 and 469,000 tonnes in 2024. Elsewhere, expansions and new projects have been announced, such as Codelco, Chile's state-owned mining company, exploring at Salar de Maricunga. Drilling is due to be completed in early 2023. In Canada, three new lithium projects in Quebec will start production in 2023, with a total production of more than 50,000 tonnes of LCE. The reopening of the Whabouchi mine, which is also in Quebec, is expected to increase production by 52,500 tonnes a year from 2025. Mexico set up a state-owned lithium mining company after nationalizing lithium resources in April. The company plans to start operations within the next six months. Europe and North America are also actively seeking to reduce their dependence on Chinese imports and develop their own lithium production. This is why global demand for lithium will increase from 583,000 tonnes in 2021 to 724,000 tonnes in 2022. Demand is also forecast to grow by more than 40% over the next two years, pushing it to 1,058,000 tonnes by 2024. But despite the expansion of new battery production capacity in Europe and the US, Asia remains the main source of lithium demand. Thus, shortages of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate continue to push spot prices to new records. The price of lithium hydroxide is forecast to rise from $17,370 per tonne in 2021 to $38,575 per tonne in 2022. Then, it will peak in 2023 at over $50,000 per tonne, followed by a fall to an average level of around $37,600 in 2024. While production expansion is already underway in Australia and overseas, it takes a long time for lithium mines to ramp up. The possibility of delays in bringing large quantities of lithium into production means that there remain risks of continued supply shortages over the next few years, which could push prices to double by 2025. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331349
Forex: British pound against US dollar - technical analysis - January 2nd

Forex: British pound against US dollar - technical analysis - January 2nd

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 22:39
Overview : The GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at 1.1991. Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.1991), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. From this point of view, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2077 followed by 1.2163, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1991 (last bearish wave - 00% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1991 and 1.2163; so we expect a range of 172 pips. Consequently, buy above the level of 1.1991 with the first target at 1.2077 so as to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2100. Besides, the level of 1.2163 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1991, a further decline to 1.1949 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 1.1991 - 1.1949 in coming three days. In the same time frame, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1991 - 1.1949. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.1949 (below the support 2). Forecast: - The market opens above the daily pivot point. It continues to move downwards to hit the daily pivot point. Consequently, buy at the daily pivot point (1.2040). - Take profit: It should set take profit at R1 (1.2077), R2 (1.2100) and R3 (1.2163) .The previous range was large (185pips). - Stop loss: Stop loss should set depending on the money management. In this case, we prefer setting the stop loss depending this formula <=> Take profit = 3/2 x Stop loss. Thus, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.1949, then this scenario may be invalidated. Relevance up to 21:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307071
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

Forex: Euro against US dollar - technical analysis and forecast

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 22:34
Overview : The trend of EUR/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in the downtrend channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still set between the levels of 1.0713 and 1.0682. Thus, it is recommended to be careful while making deals in these levels because the prices of 1.0713 and 1.0643 are representing the resistance and support respectively. Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.0713 towards 1.0650. Now, the price is set at 1.0658. On the M1 chart, the resistance of EUR/USD pair is seen at the level of 1.0713 and 1.0682. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.0682 and 1.0643 in coming hours. Moreover, the price spot of 1.0682/1.0713 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. What is the secret of the strength of the U.S. dollar? The foundations of the global financial system. - United States of America founded the global financial system, which means continued American economic hegemony. The central determinants of the U.S. dollar. - The most important components of the dollar's centrality in global markets were the following: o Easy conversion. o Intensity of trading. o Stability of the cash reserve since there is global trust. The trend will be probbaly indicate the bearish opportunity below spot of 1.0682/1.0713, sell below 1.0682/1.0713 with the first target at 1.0643 in order to test yesterday's bottom. Also, it should be noted that the trend is still calling for a strong bearish market from the spot of 1.0713 - 1.0682 (sellers are asking for a high price). Additionally, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.0574, the market will decline further to 1.0550 so as to test the weekly support 2. Also, it should be noticed that support 2 is seen at the level of 1.0550. Forecast: If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0713, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0713. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.0713 level with the first target at 1.0643. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.0575 in order to test the weekly pivot point. However, stop loss has always been in consideration thus it will be useful to set it above the last double top at the level of 1.0737 (notice that the major resistance today has set at 1.0737). - Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated. Relevance up to 21:00 2023-01-04 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307069
British pound to US dollar - trend analysis and what can we expect this week

British pound to US dollar - trend analysis and what can we expect this week

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 22:20
Trend analysis This week, the price may continue to rise with a target of 1.2445 (the upper fractal) from the level of 1.2092 (the close of the last weekly candle). When testing this level, it is possible to advance with 1.2600 as the target, a 76.6% retreat level. Fig. 1 (weekly chart). A comprehensive analysis - Indicator analysis – up; - Fibonacci levels – up; - Volumes – up; - Candle analysis – up; - Trend analysis – up; - Bollinger lines –up; - Monthly chart – up. The sophisticated analysis has an upward movement as its conclusion. The first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday - down) and the existence of the second upper shadow indicate that the price for the next weeks is likely to have an upward trend. This is the overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair on a weekly chart. Price may continue to rise from the level of 1.2092 (close to the previous weekly candle), with the upper fractal objective of 1.2445 as the endpoint. When testing this level, it is possible to advance with 1.2600 as the target - a 76.6% retreat level. Alternative scenario: The price may continue to rise with a target of 1.2445, the upper fractal, from the level of 1.2092 (close of the last weekly candle). When the price tests this level, a pullback movement downward with a target of 1.2138 - a pullback level of 14.6% - is possible. Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-07 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331291
InstaForex expects risky assets to regain demand if the US CPI declines

InstaForex expect risky assets to regain demand if the US CPI declines

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 22:14
While the world is enjoying its New Year's celebrations, it is important to consider whether additional financial market shocks are anticipated for the next year or if their primary impact has already passed. There were a lot of significant geopolitical and economic events this year. Here, the beginning of cycles of interest rate hikes by global central banks led by the Fed and the military confrontation between Russia and the united West had a major impact. The overwhelming majority of economic predictions made after the previous year suggested that all of these issues would persist in 2023. Regarding the geopolitical conflict, there is no doubt; nonetheless, voices in the market have started to be heard, and they are getting louder and louder as they assert that, at the very least, the American regulator can stop this process entirely after the February rate hike. This likelihood, in our opinion, is very high. Back in November, we predicted that the Federal Reserve would stop raising rates after reducing the pace of increases to observe the situation in the national economy and assess some outcomes of an extremely tight monetary policy. This was due to the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in inflation growth and a high risk of the US economy entering a deep recession in the first quarter of 2023. We still maintain that if inflation growth continues to slow and if the December data, which will be released in the middle of this month, confirm this as an already established trend, the Central Bank may decide not to raise the discount rate at all after its meeting, opting instead to focus on the "soft landing" of the economy rather than on its hard entry into recession with all of its "wonderful" repercussions. What can we probably anticipate in the markets this month? We believe there is a strong likelihood of a recovery in demand for risky assets in January following the failure of the stock markets in December and the dollar's attempts to resume growth in the foreign exchange markets. However, this demand will only increase in the middle of the month if data from the consumer price index in the United States show even a slight decline, as this will strengthen expectations among investors of a pause in the growth of rates and their likely termination. This could support the start of a global bull market and a blue reversal in the stock markets. In terms of the future dollar exchange rate, we think that a slow decline will continue, but only if other central banks keep raising interest rates while the Fed is pausing. In addition, given a declining dollar and ongoing major geopolitical issues, we anticipate a rise in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. In general, we do not anticipate a significant decline in the value of the dollar since there will still be demand for it — just not as a safe-haven currency, but rather as a currency that will be actively purchased to transfer money to the United States, for instance, from Europe. Today's forecast:   USD/CAD With the demand for crude oil still strong and the US dollar weakening globally, the pair will have a good chance of continuing the notable decline that began at the beginning of this month. The price could drop to 1.3385 as a result of its decline below the level of 1.3520. AUD/USD The pair is trading higher, and a break over the 0.6825 level may catalyze a rise to 0.6900. Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-05 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331277
Brent and US crude oil have gained on the back of an improved economic sentiment and possible increase in Chinese demand

According to Financial Times, energy companies stocks have increased by ca. 60%

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 17:05
Oil and gas firms have been the target of criticism from investors, the non-governmental sector, and governments for their purported leadership in climate change for several years. The barrage has been constant, ranging from shareholder votes calling for more significant promises to decrease greenhouse gas emissions to lawsuits ordering operators in the oil and gas sector to effectively limit their core business. Because of this, oil and gas company shares as well as the corporations that issued them have lost favor in the stock market and the business sector. A startlingly large number of nations have realized that while lowering emissions may be a worthy objective, providing electricity without outages is still the top priority this year. This realization has considerably boosted the consumption of fossil fuels in Europe, which has raised the price of oil and gas. The share prices of oil and gas businesses increased along with the price of fuel. They have developed so impressively that they now top the market this year. The cause: enormous profits in the face of the European energy crisis, which is naturally drawing a lot of negative attention from governments concerned about the environment. Up to 15 S&P 500 leaders will come from the energy sector, according to a Financial Times estimate published last week, with Occidental Petroleum topping the list after its shares increased by 120 percent this year. Additionally, the energy sector outperformed in a year in which the stock market as a whole underperformed due to aggressive monetary policy tightening in both the US and Europe as well as a strong increase in bond yields that kept investors away from stocks. Read next: Euro against dollar is ahead of an action-packed week with inflation and retail sales prints to be published| FXMAG.COM The S&P 500 would experience a fall of 21%, according to a recent study from Bloomberg, which would be the greatest since 2008, the year of the global financial crisis. Aside from cryptography firms that have been harmed by the collapse of the digital currency and the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, it appears that huge technology companies have suffered the most this time around. Meta alone has lost 60% this year. Even Tesla has not been immune to the upheaval in the stock market; in the past few weeks alone, the business has seen a loss of up to 70% of its value as a result of mounting worries about the demand for electric vehicles. Many referred to the price decline as a long overdue correction and a reality check, but Elon Musk reassured Tesla staff that the firm will eventually regain its highest level of value. The FT reports that shares of energy companies have increased by around 60% this year alone in the United States alone, making them look more and more appealing to investors who had previously been wary of oil and gas. It was only a matter of time until investors realized their top objective in investing was making money, given this situation and the rising need for oil and gas, a reality that even the International Energy Agency did not dispute. Oil and gas corporations are more than willing to keep giving money back to investors in both Europe and the US, but they are especially active in the US shale sector due to record earnings and windfall income taxes that threaten future production costs. Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331275
Talking gold, silver and crude oil positions. Check out Jason Sen's (DayTradeIdeas) commentary

Judging from Jeff Kresnak words, silver prices may double in 2023

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 16:18
  Retail silver investors' optimistic attitude suggests that the rise is just getting started. During the summer, silver prices fell to a multi-year low, trading around $18 per ounce; however, in the fourth quarter, a shift in expectations about the Federal Reserve system's monetary policy caused the price of the gray metal to rise. Silver has increased by roughly 38% since its August lows. Retail investors anticipate higher prices by the end of 2023, according to the most recent study for 2023. Investors were asked to predict the price of silver by the end of the year in an online survey that had 1,482 participants last week. Investors anticipate an increase in silver prices to $38 per ounce on average. By the end of 2023, just 85 participants, or around 5% of the votes, predicted that silver prices will be below $23 per ounce. By the end of the year, nearly 48% of participants predicted that silver prices would top $38 an ounce. According to Middleville, Michigan resident Jeff Kresnak, silver prices will double and top $40 per ounce in 2023. Industrial metal will also be utilized as a form of stock market and inflation protection, according to Jeff. "In my opinion, silver was anchored because the cryptocurrency weighed it down. 90% of individuals who were unduly excited about cryptocurrencies in 2022, in my opinion, will no longer do so; instead, they will switch to silver." When compared to Wall Street analysts, retail investors are more positive about silver. Most Wall Street analysts anticipate that gold will sell at less than $30 an ounce. The majority of economists are also bullish on silver since the switch to green energy is boosting industrial metal demand. The highest price of silver, according to Bank of America analysts, will be around $25 per ounce. According to Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer: "Investors typically see the silver through both macro and micro lenses: from a macroeconomic point of view, the Fed's reversal and the stabilization of the US dollar should make the precious metal more attractive." A rise in silver prices to $25 per ounce is another prediction made by Commerzbank. ElliottWaveTrader.net's founder claimed that silver is beginning a significant bullish rebound that could send prices back to all-time highs of $50 per ounce. He stated, "I anticipate a fall to the $21-22 silver range to initiate the next significant rise. "Although it might take a while, I anticipate that the price of silver will eventually approach $50. Prices in 2023 and the first half of 2024 may easily double." Relevance up to 08:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331273
adaad

What can we expect from GBP/USD in January? Technical analysis by Stefan Doll

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 15:01
trend analysis: This January, GBP/USD will probably attempt to pull back first from 1.2092 (closing of December monthly candlestick) to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1946 (yellow dashed line), then continue its upward movement towards the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2748 ( red dotted line). Another rebound may occur after the latter is tested.     Fig. 1 (monthly chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - downrend Fibonacci levels - downtrend Volumes - uptrend Candlestick analysis - downrend Trend analysis - uptrend Bollinger bands - uptrend All this points to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: The pair will have a bearish trend with no first upper shadow on the monthly black candle (the first week of the month is black) and a second lower shadow (the last week is white). Throughout the month, pound will go down from 1.2092 (closing of December monthly candlestick) to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1946 (yellow dashed line), then continue its upward movement towards the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2748 (red dotted line). Another rebound may occur after the level is tested. Alternatively, the pair could immediately rise from 1.2092 (closing of December monthly candlestick) to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2748 (red dotted line), followed by a decline. Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331305
The Major Options Market Players Are Bullish On The USD/JPY Prices

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Started 2023 With Modest Gains

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 12:27
The yen started 2023 with modest gains on Monday as traders weighed the risk of further technical strength amid thin holiday trading. The Japanese currency rose 0.3% to 130.77 per dollar in early trading in Tokyo. A close below the dollar-yen's August low of 130.41 would open up the door for further declines in the pair, according to chart watchers. Some investors were opening small short-dollar positions in case a break occurs in the absence of normal market liquidity, said some Asia-based currency traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly. The yen is up about 16% from its October low amid government intervention, hopes for slowing US rate hikes and speculation about a possible policy shift from the Bank of Japan this year. The BOJ's unexpected December decision to tweak its yield curve control parameters is seen by many as a sign that its ultra-easy monetary policy might soon be coming to an end. Read next: Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 09:00 2023-01-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331287
Foreign exchange - Euro against US dollar - preview

Foreign exchange - Euro against US dollar - preview

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2023 07:15
The EUR/USD tested the resistance level of 1.0700 again and tried to settle in the area of the 7th figure. The EUR/USD bulls made a similar attempt on Friday, but retreated to previous positions. At the beginning of a new trading week that marked the beginning of 2023, the price repeated Friday's round: reaching 1.0710 the pair turned 180 degrees and headed towards the middle of the 6th figure. However, Monday's price movements should be considered through the prism of the "thin" market, since most trading floors of the world are closed as people continue to celebrate the New Year. The main events in the currency market will unfold a little later, starting on Tuesday. By the way, the first more or less significant macro data will also be published on Tuesday. It is noteworthy that the current week is full of events of fundamental nature. In particular, there will be reports on inflation in Germany and the European region in general, as well as the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. In addition, the U.S. will release its ISM manufacturing index and key labor market data. Fed officials will also be on the air with Fed Board of Governors member Lisa Cook and Atlanta Fed Chair Rafael Bostic speaking. This means that we are expecting a rather volatile week, while the current price fluctuations reflect the hesitation of traders, both bulls and bears. The German inflation growth data will be released on January 3. According to preliminary forecasts, the release will reflect the slowdown in consumer price index growth. The overall CPI should come in at 9% (a downward trend for the second month in a row) and the core at 10.7% (a similar downward trajectory here). German data tend to correlate with Europe-wide data, which will be released on Friday (January 6). Preliminary forecasts also suggest that inflation in the euro area will again show signs of slowing. The general consumer price index for December should come in at 10.0% and the core at 4.9%. And while the inflation figures will still remain at an unacceptably high level for the European Central Bank, the downtrend will clearly be visible. If the aforementioned data come out at the forecasted level (not to mention the red zone), the euro may come under pressure, as a slowdown in inflation growth will strengthen the ECB's dovish stance. Let me remind you that according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the pace and extent of the central bank's monetary tightening will depend on incoming data, primarily on inflation. But the US currency is waiting for "its" data. We should highlight the minutes of the last Fed meeting (to be published on Wednesday, January 4) and the Nonfarm payrolls (Friday, January 6). The so-called "Fed Minutes" are of particular importance to the dollar pairs this time. The conflicting results of the December meeting did not sink the dollar, but they did not allow the greenback to recover. On the one hand, the Fed slowed the pace of interest rate hikes, while on the other hand it revised (upward) the upper limit of the current monetary tightening cycle. On the one hand, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a rather dovish message, admitting a new revision of the final point of raising the rate (downward already), on the other hand, John Williams, head of the New York Fed, declared already after the meeting that the central bank can go beyond the declared maximum of 5.1%. In the context of such contradictory signals, the published minutes will help tip the scales in one direction, either strengthening the greenback or weakening it. As for Nonfarm, experts do not expect anything shocking here. The December figures should generally repeat the trajectory of the November ones. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.7% and the number of people employed in the nonfarm payrolls will increase by 210,000 (+263,000 in November). Payrolls should also repeat November's trajectory (+5.0% y/y, 5.1% in November). The ISM manufacturing index, which will be published on Wednesday, January 4, may put pressure on the greenback: according to preliminary forecasts, this index will remain under the key 50-point level, firstly, and secondly, it will fall to 48.6, thus developing a three-month downtrend. The aforementioned fundamental factors will determine the mood of the traders in the medium term. Current price fluctuations are now part of the market noise: when there is no information available, the market reacts sharply even to information related to the market. For example, this morning the dollar strengthened its positions after the pessimistic statements of the IMF head. According to IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva, in 2023 one third of the global economy will suffer from recession. According to the calculations of the economists of the Fund, global growth will be restrained by the economies of America, China and the EU, which "are slowing down simultaneously". Georgieva predicted that half of the EU will be in recession, but America "may avoid" it. Amid a blank economic calendar, such pessimistic statements of the IMF head provoked a surge of volatility in the pair, temporarily strengthening the safe-haven dollar. Still, at the moment it would be best to take a wait-and-see attitude on the pair: the aforementioned macro data, the Fed minutes and speeches of the Fed representatives may "redraw" the fundamental picture in a significant way. Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331295
The Data May Keep The British Pound (GBP) From Rising

British pound against greenback - technical analysis - December 30th

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.12.2022 23:51
  Overview: The GBP/USD pair has dropped sharply from the level of 1.2125 towards 1.2032. Now, the price is set at 1.2077 to act as a daily pivot point. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.2032 and 1.2163 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.2163 and 1.2125, which coincides with the 100% and 78% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the GBP/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.2163 or/and 1.2125. Thereupon, the price spot of 1.2163 or/and 1.2125. remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.2163 or/and 1.2125, sell below 1.2163 or/and 1.2125. with the first targets at 1.2032 and 1.1991 (the double bottom is seen at 0.9785). However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 1.2200. Relevance up to 19:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306928
Euro could trade back below parity at some point during the first half versus the USD, but may firm up later in the year once the Fed is eventually seen as beginning to soften its own stance

Forex: Euro to US dollar - Technical analysis - December 30th

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.12.2022 23:49
  Overview: As expected the EUR/USD pair is still moving upwards from the level of 1.0650. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.0650 (this level of 1.0650 is represented a major support) to the top around 1.0687. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0737 followed by 1.0800, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.0650. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.0650 and 1.0800; for that we expect a range of 150 pips (1.0650 - 1.0800). If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the minor support level of 1.0687, the market will rise further to 1.0737. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.0650. The pair is expected to rise lower towards at least 1.0800 with a view to test the daily resistance. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 1.0650 (major support), then this scenario may become invalidated. Relevance up to 18:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306926
The New Year Could Be Just As Difficult As The Previous One, Which May Cause Investors To Focus More On Alternative Assets

The New Year Could Be Just As Difficult As The Previous One, Which May Cause Investors To Focus More On Alternative Assets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.12.2022 12:00
2022 will be remembered as one of the worst in recent history for the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Both bonds and stocks suffered huge losses this year because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest rate possible to combat inflation. Since the Fed will keep interest rates high until the end of 2023, the new year could be just as challenging as the previous one, which means investors should focus more on alternative assets such as private equity, private credit and real estate. According to Yieldstreet fund manager Michael Weisz: The U.S. is already in a recession and conditions will only get worse as the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive monetary policy. In this environment, investors are finding it increasingly difficult to accumulate wealth. The Federal Reserve is tightening interest rates and reducing market liquidity. There are reasons why endowment funds, pension funds and investment firms have significant exposure to alternative assets. Private markets have outperformed traditional markets and also help reduce the volatility in investors' portfolios. Regarding how big a position investors should seek to build... According to Weisz: real estate, private equity and private credit should make up about 40% of the portfolio and could eventually rise to 50%. Read next: TC Energy Corp Has Announced That It Is Aiming To Fully Reactivate The Keystone Oil Pipeline System After The Largest Reported Spill In The Pipeline's History| FXMAG.COM "Pension funds and endowments invest up to 55% of their assets in private markets and that is what retail investors should try to achieve," he said. Investors should diversify their alternative assets exposure into three categories. First, there's private credit and equity. Investors should look for short-term assets with cash flow. There are a lot of variables and unknowns about how the macroeconomic backdrop is going to shape, and having a shorter duration credit provides a little more flexibility. The second tranche is real estate. 2022 was a terrible year for U.S. housing markets as new home buyers faced higher home prices and rising mortgages. Although home prices are expected to fall in 2023 due to weaker demand, the housing market is still a solid option for long-term investments. "In the housing market, the highs of the last cycle traditionally prove to be the lows of the new cycle," he said. The housing sector is likely to outperform commercial real estate. The third tranche of an investor's updated portfolio will be alternative assets such as art and other collectibles that gain value over time. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331206
The ECB Has A Clear Tightening Bias And Is Chasing Inflation

The European Central Bank And The Bank Of England Face An Urgent Need To Continue To Tighten Policy Because Inflation Remains Strong

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.12.2022 11:54
The foreign exchange market is expected to move quite sharply in 2023 as two mutually directed processes - fighting inflation and trying to slow or prevent the onset of recession in each of the currency zones - follow similar scenarios, but in different conditions. Let's look at the balance of short and long positions in speculative positioning in the long-term, based on CFTC reports. To clearly see how large speculators build their strategy, let's consider the ratio of long and short positions for each of the currencies against the U.S. dollar. We will convert the long and short volumes for each of the currencies using a simple formula: divide the difference between long and short positions by the sum of long and short positions and normalize them between -100 and +100. We will sum up the result in the table. The interpretation of the results is as follows. If the line is above zero, the positioning is bullish, if it is below then it's bearish. The direction of the line whether it's up or down shows the dynamics of the speculators' sentiment over time. As follows from the table, the euro shows the most stable and consistent growth in regards to sentiment. The bullish bias is evident, i.e. long-term expectations on the futures market are in favor of the euro, which suggests that EURUSD will continue to rise during the first weeks of the new year. The New Zealand dollar unexpectedly took second place. The positioning was bearish for a long period, but in the last week a sharp growth of longs and a decline in shorts became evident. This means that the market sees the prospect of the kiwi strengthening against the current levels, the long-term target might be in the resistance area at 0.6680/6720. All other currencies are still in the bearish area (below zero) and are quite close to each other. Nevertheless, the movement in favor of growth in longs and a decline in shorts (upward direction of the lines) is noticeable for all currencies, except for the Canadian dollar. This synchronism allows us to conclude that the foreign exchange market is focused on a scenario of a gradual transition of demand from the dollar to other currencies. Sentiment is determined by a number of factors, and the most important one is inflation expectations in each of the currency areas. As the chart below clearly shows, the spread between the Federal Reserve's discount rate and inflation has been growing most steadily for the dollar since August, which means that the US central bank has been the most consistent among all major central banks in stopping the inflation surge and achieving a noticeable result. And if so, then the market sees the Fed's policy as not only the end of the rate growth cycle, but also a reversal to its decline earlier than the other currencies, that is, long-term expectations for the yield spread suggest a fall in the dollar's position. But the European Central Bank and the Bank of England face an urgent need to continue to tighten policy because the actions they have taken by the end of 2022 did not produce a noticeable result. Inflation remains strong, and as the winter progresses, as sharply higher energy rates begin to factor in, inflation will remain high, real yields will be much lower than in other countries, and they will be forced to continue policy tightening longer than the Fed forecast. This means that in dynamics, long-term yield spread expectations will shift in favor of the euro and the pound. For the euro, we just see a steady bullish repositioning (see the first chart), the pound lags behind, but the projections for the BoE's actions are firmly bullish. Forecasts for the ECB and the BoE's further actions are hawkish, and unlike the Fed, the end of the tightening cycle and a pivot to monetary policy easing are seen much further into the future, meaning that over the long term, the yield spread will start to grow in their favor. Read next: Japan Is Trying To Maintain Cover For LNG Vessels In Russian Waters, How Digital Money Could Look Like According To The IMF| FXMAG.COM We expect both currency pairs, EURUSD and GBPUSD, to resume growth in the first weeks of the new year. Long-term targets for EURUSD are 1.0940 and 1.1270, for GBPUSD we can expect attempts to rise to the area of 1.2750/60. It is necessary to take note that the Bank of Canada is likely to strengthen its hawkish stance since its efforts haven't produced any noticeable result yet. And also the Bank of Japan, as the dynamics of yield on the yen remains negative, which puts the yen in a losing position in the long term due to the risk of increased capital outflow from the country. As for the Australian dollar, there is no clarity yet. The dynamics in the futures market is minimal, the Reserve Bank of Australia is behaving very cautiously and does not allow the aussie to deviate either to one or the other side of the market trends. The U.S. dollar, according to the CFTC reports, is close to exhausting its growth potential, the Fed's role as a flagship is nearing its end. The dollar stands a good chance of continuing to weaken across the currency market spectrum in the first weeks of 2023.     Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331172
Gold Has A Chance For The Rejection Of The Support

Gold Managed To Accelerate Its Bullish Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.12.2022 08:14
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around 1,816.30, above the 21 SMA and below the strong resistance at 1,823. Yesterday, gold managed to accelerate its bullish movement after bouncing around 1,804. The strength of gold was caused by a fall in US bond yields, which weakened the US dollar and helped gold to approach the levels of 1,812 - 1,818. On the technical level, according to the 4-hour charts, we can see the XAU/USD pair maintains the upward trend, it is expected to reach $1,824 again and climb up to the December maximum of 1,833. In the graph, we can see that gold has formed a double top (technical reversal pattern). If in the next few hours, it reaches this area of 1,823, a triple top could be confirmed and we could expect a technical correction towards the 21 SMA in 1,808. On the other hand, if in the next few hours, gold falls below 1,812, it is likely that there will be a slowdown in the bullish force and the price could reach the area of 1,808. A daily close below this level could mean a bearish movement and the price could reach 1,785 and drop even towards 5/8 Murray at 1,781. The XAU/USD pair is likely to consolidate below 1,824 and above 1,808 in the next few hours. This range zone could define our next moves to buy or sell. Only daily close below the 21 SMA could mean a bearish acceleration and will be the key to sell in the next few days with targets at 1,775 (200 EMA). Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306819
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange All Indices Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.12.2022 08:01
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.75%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 2.59%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), which gained 3.01 points or 3.58% to close at 87.18. Salesforce Inc rose 4.07 points or 3.17% to close at 132.54. Apple Inc rose 2.83% or 3.57 points to close at 129.61. The least gainers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which lost 0.11 points (0.29%) to 37.47 by the end of the session. Merck & Company Inc. shares rose 0.26 points (0.23%) to close at 110.82, while Boeing Co rose 0.53 points (0.28%) to close at 188. .91. S&P 500  Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were SVB Financial Group, which rose 8.40% to 234.63, Tesla Inc, which gained 8.08% to close at 121.82, and shares of Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which rose 6.31% to end the session at 9.43. The least gainers were shares of Cardinal Health Inc, which shed 1.12% to close at 77.72. Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc shed 0.96% to end the session at 85.51. AmerisourceBergen fell 0.78% to 166.05. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which rose 143.64% to hit 10.72, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 99.04% to close at 24.84, and also Palisade Bio Inc (NASDAQ:PALI), which rose 77.90% to close at 3.22. The least gainers were FStar Therapeutics Inc, which shed 40.38% to close at 4.09. Shares of Jasper Therapeutics Inc lost 21.97% to end the session at 0.46. Quotes of Th International Ltd decreased in price by 20.00% to 2.60. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2651) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (450), while quotes of 73 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,095 companies rose in price, 646 fell, and 141 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.16% to 21.44. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 0.34%, or 6.15, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery fell 0.37%, or 0.29, to $78.67 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery fell 0.31%, or 0.26, to $83.73 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.56% to 1.07, while USD/JPY shed 1.12% to hit 132.96. Futures on the USD index fell 0.48% to 103.68. Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306809
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

Technical analysis - British pound to US dollar - December 29th

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.12.2022 23:18
  Pound price prediction : Remember that the GBP/USD pair is in donwtrend since a week! so, the GBP/USD pai is really a great fortune. Hence, our target 1.1991 in the next two days. Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading below the weekly pivot point 1.2099. Because the GBP/USD pair broke support which turned to a minor resistance at the price of 1.2099 last week in 2022. The price of 1.2099 is expected to act as major resistance in the first week of December 2022. As long as there is no daily close below 1.2099, there are no chances of a fresh increase below 1.2099 (R1) in the H1 time frame. The support levels will be placed at the prices of 1.2099 and 1.1950. As long as there is no daily close below 1.2099, there are chances of breaking the bottom of 1.1950. The volatility is very high for that the the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.2099 and 1.1950 in coming hours. As a result, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend again. Hence, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.2099 with the first target at 1.1950 and further to 1.1900 in order to test the weekly last bearish wave. However, if the GBP/USD is able to break out the daily resistance at 1.2099, the market will rise further to 1.2164 to approach resistance 2 in coming days. Daily Forecast : Pivot Point : $22,462. Forecast : According to the previous events the price is expected to remain between 1.2099 and 1.1991 levels. Sell-deals are recommended below 1.2099 with the first target seen at 1.1950. The movement is likely to resume to the point 1.1950 and further to the point 1.1950. Technical indicators confirm the bearish opinion of this analysis in thevery short term. However, be careful of excessive bearish movements. It is appropriate to continue watching any excessive bearish movements or scanner detections which might lead to a small bullish correction. From this point, the pair is likely to begin a descending movement to the point of 1.1991 and further to the level of 1.1950. The level of 1.1900 will act as strong support and the double bottom is already set at the point of 1.1950. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1950 in order to test the second support (1.1900). On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the first support of 1.1950 today, the market will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.2218 (double top). Relevance up to 20:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306791
There’s a lot to follow in crypto space in terms of regulations

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin to US dollar - technical analysis - December 29th

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.12.2022 23:15
  Overview : Trend in the EUR/USD pair was argumentative as it was trading in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.0596 and 1.0687. Resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0687 (also, the double top is already set at the point of 1.0687) and 1.0596 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. The current price is seen at 1.0687 which represents a key level today. The level of 1.0596 will act as the daily pivot point on the hourly chart. The EUR/USD pair broke resistance at 1.0687 which turned into strong support yesterday. The level of 1.0596 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today. Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.0596) in the coming hours. The EUR/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 0.9973. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.0596) in the coming hours. The EUR/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 1.0687. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.0687 with the first target at 1.0737. Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 1.0737 mark and further to 1.0800 levels. The level of 1.0800 will act as strong resistance, and the double top is already set at 1.0737. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 1.0593. If the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the level of 1.0593, the market will decline further to 1.0563 (daily support 2). Relevance up to 19:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306789
Altcoins: Avalanche price (AVAX) has gained on the back of partnership with Amazon Web Services

Cryptocurrency: What has Sam Bankman-Fried been charged with? FTX invested $100M in Dave Inc.

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.12.2022 23:00
Following the pause seen since December 17, ether and bitcoin both experienced a small decline. We won't concentrate on this because, from a technical standpoint, it had no special effects. The news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission has accused Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, of orchestrating a fraud scheme with investor money is much more intriguing.     The data revealed that in March of this year, the cryptocurrency company invested $100 million in Dave Inc. through its FTX Ventures division. This fintech business only went public two months prior, and it claimed that its goal was to cooperate to develop the ecosystem of digital assets. The SEC also mentioned a $100 million investment round made in the Web3 company Mysten Labs in September. Mysten's value then increased to $2 billion. The most important thing at this time is that the money was not Sam Bankman-Fried's funds; rather, it was the funds of the clients of the company who were trading and investing on the FTX platform. The Ministry of Justice is also looking into how, following the announcement of FTX's demise, the business was abruptly hacked and $372 million was taken from its accounts. Mysten Labs and Dave investments were the only ones that were made public, according to PitchBook research. FTX Ventures carried out dozens of transactions concurrently, investing billions of dollars in unidentified locations. In its press release, FTX Ventures was described as a venture fund with a $2 billion annual revenue. Bankman-Fried, 30, is now charged with widespread fraud. His business, FTX, in which private investors had invested $32 billion, failed. The accusation's main focus is on how Bankman-Fried transferred money from FTX to his hedge fund, Alameda Research, which used it for risky loans and transactions. FTX Ventures was probably involved in this scheme. FTX investments are already planned to be repaid with interest by 2026, according to the CEO of Dave Inc. Wilk. FTX invested $100 million through the acquisition of bonds, a short-term loan, and cash. Mysten Labs has not yet offered any comments on the matter. It is important to note that the Bankman-Fried tale is only getting more interesting. Sam has cool customers despite these serious accusations. As I mentioned in my most recent review, the FTX founder, Bankman Fried, was recently released from prison after promising a whopping $ 250 million in bail. According to Assistant US Attorney Nicholas Roos, it is the largest pre-trial bail in court. As it turned out, however, not a single real cent was contained in these 250 million, meaning Fried was released from prison without making a single payment.     Regarding the technical picture of bitcoin today, everything came to a complete stop after it bounced off the crucial level of $16,600. The resistance of $17,400 restricts growth. However, in the event of renewed pressure, the focus will be on safeguarding exactly $16,600, as a breach by the sellers would deal the asset a relatively serious blow. By putting more pressure on bitcoin, a direct path to $15,560 and $14,650 will become available. The first cryptocurrency in the world will fall below these levels and settle somewhere between $14,370 and $13,950. Once bitcoin has been released above $ 17,460, only then can the discussion turn to bringing the situation back to equilibrium and ending the "panic" mode. Breaking through this region will cause it to retrace to a significant resistance at $18,101 and provide an opening for a test of $18,720. The breakdown of the nearest resistance at $1,344 is what ether buyers are concentrating on. This will be sufficient to cause substantial market changes and halt a fresh bearish wave. Fixing the rate above $1,344 will diffuse the situation and put the remaining funds back into the ether with the possibility of a correction in the hope of raising the maximum to $1,466. The more distant target will be the $1,571 region. The $1,073 level, which was recently formed, will come into play when the pressure on the trading instrument resumes and the $1,198 level of support breaks. His innovation will raise the trading instrument's price to at least $999. For those who own cryptocurrencies, it will be very painful below $934 and $876. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331083
Swissquote expect Euro against US dollar to recover along the year

Forex: Trading British pound to US dollar pair during American session

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.12.2022 16:28
I focused on the 1.2050 level in my morning forecast and suggested making decisions about entering the market there. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to determine what transpired there. A false breakdown that developed at 1.2050 grew and formed, producing a strong sell signal. The downward movement, as a result, was about 25 points, and the pressure on the pair is still present. Technically speaking, the second half of the day has not seen any changes.     You require the following to open long positions on the GBP/USD: Data on unemployment benefit applications in the US are released during the US session, which could cause a brief increase in market volatility - particularly if the data come in worse than expected, which would weaken the US dollar's position, but only temporarily. With favorable news, it is best to watch for a decline in the pair and a potential false breakdown in the 1.1994 support level, which corresponds to the December low. This will result in a buy signal and enable you to return above 1.2050 because it will show that there are significant buyers in the market. We can anticipate a sharper upward jerk and an update to the level of 1.2111, from where the pound was actively sold yesterday, if there is a breakthrough and consolidation above this range. The growth prospects at 1.2183, where I advise fixing profits, will be opened up by an exit above 1.2111 with a comparable test. The bulls' pressure on the pair will increase significantly if they are unable to complete the tasks assigned to them and miss 1.1994 in the afternoon. This will cause the demolition of the stop orders placed below by buyers. Because of this, I suggest that you hold off on making any purchases and instead open long positions on a decline and a false breakdown close to the minimum of 1.1949. I advise purchasing GBP/USD right away in anticipation of a recovery from 1.1904 to gain 30-35 points in a single day. For opening short positions on the GBP/USD, you will need: The bears clearly stated that they are nearby at 1.2050 and that they expect to continue guarding this area. While trading will take place below this range, the main objective is to keep the pair below 1.2050. However, sellers have a good chance of breaking through the December lows. In the present scenario, it would be best to hold off on making any new sales until a false breakdown forms in the region of 1.2050, which will be another strong sell signal in anticipation of a resumption of the bear market and a sustained decline to a minimum of 1.1994. Only a breakout and a reverse test of this range from the bottom up will provide an entry point to sell with a move to 1.1949 and the potential for updating 1.1904, where I advise fixing profits. Nothing terrible will occur, but the pressure on the pound will lessen due to the possibility of GBP/USD growth and the lack of bears at 1.2050. In this case, the only entry point into short positions to move down is a false breakout in the vicinity of 1.2111. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD right away at the highest price of 1.2183, but only if you are counting on the pair to fall back by 30-35 points during the day.     There were more long positions and fewer short ones in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for December 20. It was made clear after important central bank meetings that regulators would keep raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy, which by all logic should increase demand for national currencies, including the British pound. The report makes it clear exactly how things stand. However, traders are unlikely to continue buying the pound with the same zeal in January, given that GDP data for the UK's third quarter were revised in the direction of a larger decrease, and the start of the recession is not an expectation for next year, but rather a reality this year. According to the most recent COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 3,276 to a level of 35,284 while short non-commercial positions decreased by 16,860 to a level of 40,887. As a result, the non-commercial net position's negative value decreased to -5,603 from -25,739 the previous week. In comparison with 1.2377, the weekly closing price dropped to 1.2177.     Signals from indicators Moveable Averages The fact that trading occurs around the 30 and 50-day moving averages suggests that the market is lateral. Notably, the author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and departs from the standard definition of the traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bands by Bollinger The indicator's lower limit, which is located around 1.010, will serve as support in the event of a decline. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow. Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Relevance up to 13:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331116
Gold Is Expected The Further Upside Movement

Gold Is Expected That There Will Be A Fall In The Short Term

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.12.2022 08:08
Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around 1,806.05 above the 21 SMA and below the key resistance of 6/8 Murray located at 1,812.50. The positive sentiment in the markets triggered by the news from China lifted the market's spirits, thus boosting the demand for gold. But it could last a short time due to technical reasons. In the daily chart, gold is very overbought and it is expected that there will be a fall in the short term to the levels of 1,750 and 1,720. A return below 1,800 would make gold vulnerable to a decline to test the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,794. A sharp break below could trigger further losses to the area of 1,781 (5/8 Murray). If bearish pressure prevails, it could reach the next support at 1,773 (200 EMA). On the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold could resume its bullish cycle if it trades above 1,802.50 (21 SMA). The next target is at 1,812 and the strong resistance area is at 1,823. Conversely, in the event that the XAU/USD pair trades below the psychological level of 1,800 we could expect a continuation of the bearish movement and it could reach 1,772 (200 EMA). The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal but has technically lost its bullish momentum and any technical bounce is likely to be seen as an opportunity to sell. If in the next few hours, gold fails to consolidate above 1,812, and while the price of gold is trading below this level, it could be seen as an entry point to sell. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold above 1,802 (21 SMA) with targets at 1,812 and 1,823. In the event that gold fails to break the resistance of 1,812, it will be seen as a signal to sell with targets at 1,795.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306673
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

On The New York Stock Exchange, The Number Of Securities That Fell Was Much Higher Than Those That Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.12.2022 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 1.10%, the S&P 500 was down 1.20% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.35%. Dow Jones JPMorgan Chase & Co was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 0.72 points (0.55%) to close at 132.46. Quotes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc fell by 1.10 points (0.32%) to close at 340.87. Johnson & Johnson shed 0.77 points or 0.43% to close at 176.66. Shares of Apple Inc were the least gainers, the price of which fell by 3.99 points (3.07%), ending the session at 126.04. The Walt Disney Company was up 2.55% or 2.20 points to close at 84.17, while Dow Inc was down 2.34% or 1.20 points to close at 49. 99.  S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Generac Holdings Inc, which rose 5.61% to 96.26, Tesla Inc, which gained 3.31% to close at 112.71, and shares of Illumina Inc, which rose 1.08% to end the session at 190.81. The least gainers were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which shed 5.87% to close at 275.84. Shares of APA Corporation shed 5.16% to end the session at 45.18. Quotes of Southwest Airlines Company decreased in price by 5.16% to 32.19. NASDAQ The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 218.37% to hit 12.48, Minerva Surgical Inc, which gained 66.15% to close at 0.27, and also shares of Transcode Therapeutics Inc, which rose 51.82% to end the session at 0.61. The least gainers were Minerva Neurosciences Inc, which shed 39.15% to close at 1.43. Shares of Model Performance Acquisition Corp lost 35.54% to end the session at 8.78. Quotes Lightjump Acquisition Corp fell in price by 37.11% to 11.95. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2407) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (717), while quotes of 69 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,412 companies fell in price, 1,348 rose, and 156 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 2.26% to 22.14. Gold Gold futures for February delivery lost 0.59%, or 10.70, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery fell 1.08%, or 0.86, to $78.67 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery fell 1.20%, or 1.02, to $83.66 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.24% to 1.06, while USD/JPY edged up 0.72% to hit 134.45. Futures on the USD index rose 0.34% to 104.24.     Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306666
Gold Is Showing The Strong Upside Momentum

Gold Received Strong Support After The Announcement That China Will Reopen Its Borders

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.12.2022 08:01
XAU/USD is trading around 6/8 Murray located at 1812. According to the daily chart, we can see a technical correction after reaching the June 29 high at 1,833.20. XAU/USD rose to a new high at 1,833, during the American session. It received strong support after the announcement that China will reopen its borders and waive quarantine restrictions starting on January 8. With this decision, China will significantly ease its zero-COVID policy. Although gold reached June levels, it failed to consolidate above the previous high of 1,824. It is currently trading below this level and is finding support around 6/8 Murray. If gold remains above 1,812, we could expect the bullish cycle to resume and could reach the resistance zone of 1,821 and 1,833. During the last days of December and the beginning of January, the market always decreases its liquidity, which is why certain sudden movements in the price of gold could occur and could have short-term directional movements. In view of the fact that there could be movements for no apparent reason, we must be very careful and trade the daily support and resistance levels. The daily chart shows that the XAU/USD pair continues to trade above all of its moving averages, with the 21 SMA extending its advance above the 200 EMA, in line with the prevailing uptrend. The eagle indicator has reached extreme overbought levels and an imminent technical correction is likely to occur in the coming days. It may grow to the psychologically important level of 1,800. A return below 1,812 could mean the continuation of the technical correction to the 21 SMA located at 1,791. It may also approach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,787. A sharp break in the uptrend channel could be the start of a trend change and gold could fall towards the first support around the 200 EMA located at 1,765 and the key level of 1,750 (4/8 Murray). Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,812 with targets of 1,790 or wait for a pullback towards 1,830 to sell. The eagle indicator is in the overbought zone which supports our bearish strategy. Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306513
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange All Indices Fell

At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange All Indices Fell

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.12.2022 08:00
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.41% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.38%.  Dow Jones The gainers among Dow Jones index components in today's trading were shares of Verizon Communications Inc. which gained 0.84p (2.19%) to close at 39.25. Caterpillar Inc. gained 3.27p (1.36%) to close at 243.14. Chevron Corp. gained 2.23 pct (1.26%) to close at 179.63. Shares of the Walt Disney Company were the least gainers, with their price dropping 1.64p (1.86%), ending the session at 86.37. Shares of Apple Inc soared 1.83p (1.39%) to close at 130.03, Goldman Sachs Group Inc dropped 3.54p (1.02%) and closed the session at 341.97.  S&P 500 index The top gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were shares of Wynn Resorts Limited, which gained 4.47% to 84.33, VF Corporation, which gained 4.18% to close at 27.16, and Las Vegas Sands Corp, which gained 4.17% to close the session at 48.46. Shares of Tesla Inc were the least gainers, down 11.41% to close at 109.10. Moderna Inc shares lost 9.50% and closed the session at 180.17. NVIDIA Corporation shares were down 7.14% to 141.21. NASDAQ  The top gainers among NASDAQ Composite index components in today's trading were shares of Elys Game Technology Corp, which gained 111.91% to 0.37, Lightjump Acquisition Corp, which gained 100.00% to close at 19.00, and shares of Quotient Ltd, which gained 94.74% to close the session at 0.37. The least gainers were shares of Tuesday Morning Corp, which fell 46.12% to close at 0.83. Shares of Mingzhu Logistics Holdings Ltd lost 44.57% and closed the session at 0.97. Lion Group Holding Ltd. was down 36.45 percent to 0.68. Numbers On NYSE the number of securities, which fell in price (1697) exceeded the number of securities, which closed on the plus side (1401). On NASDAQ, 2,517 stocks were down, 1,251 were up, and 139 remained flat. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.74% to 21.65. Gold Gold futures for February delivery added 0.98%, or 17.65, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 0.16%, or 0.13, to $79.69 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 0.43%, or 0.36, to $84.86 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.05% to 1.06, while USD/JPY was up 0.49% to hit 133.51. Futures on the USD index fell 0.12% to 103.89. Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306511
Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) Remain A Promising Avenue For Users To On-Ramp Cryptocurrency As Opposed To Decentralized Exchanges (DEX)

If Bankman-Fried Decided To Leave The Country, He Will Pay The Court $250 Million

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.12.2022 08:51
Last week, news organizations from all over the world reported that FTX Bankman-Fried, the company's founder, would be released from jail after posting a sizable bail of $250 million. The largest pretrial bail, according to Assistant US Attorney Nicholas Roos, was set in court. However, it was discovered that there is not a single genuine penny in this $250,000,000; Fried was released from prison without making a single payment. Experts claim that the guarantor typically charges between 10% and 15% of the total amount in cash for the release of collateral in a federal case. 15% of $250 million, in the case of the enormous Bankman-Fried sum, is $37.5 million. However, Bankman-Fried made no bail payment at all. A second method of receiving a deposit exists. The full amount of the deposit may be put down by the defendant or someone acting on his behalf. The mortgaged property then appears in court if the defendant doesn't show up. In Bankman-Fried's situation, this would entail the need for a guarantor who would mortgage the property for a sum of $250 million. But neither of those things happened. Instead, Bankman-Fried's parents agreed to put their Palo Alto, California, house (where he will also be placed under house arrest) up as collateral. Rumor has it that a Palo Alto home is only worth $4 million. And for a $250 million guarantee, the entire amount of collateral promised was this. There is no additional collateral pledged or placed. So where did the $250 million figure come from? Great inquiry. Bankman-Fried was merely released from custody with his parents' guarantee. A solemn promise by Bankman-Fried to pay the court $250 million if he fails to show up for court at the scheduled time is included in his bail, along with a similar promise by his parents. Bankman-Fried signed a document promising to pay the court $250 million if he decided to leave the country, so it turns out that he left the court essentially free. The prosecutor's office tried to portray this as a very onerous bail condition, which was absurd, but the millions of customers Bankman-Fried duped are not laughing. While he awaits trial in the case involving his collapsed cryptocurrency empire, the former FTX CEO is also prohibited from opening any new credit lines with a value greater than $1,000. For a man who once oversaw a $32 billion crypto empire, Bankman-Fried has previously claimed that his wealth has fallen to just $100,000. Regarding the technical picture of bitcoin today, everything came to a complete stop after it bounced off the crucial level of $16,600. The resistance of $17,400 restricts growth. However, in the event of renewed pressure, the focus will be on safeguarding exactly $16,600, as a breach by the sellers would deal the asset a relatively serious blow. The pressure on bitcoin will increase as a result, creating a direct route to $15,560 and $14,650. The world's first cryptocurrency will "drop" between $14,370 and $13,950 when these levels break. Only after bitcoin has been released above $ 17,460 can the discussion turn to restoring equilibrium and ending the "panic" mode. Breaking through this region will cause it to retrace to a significant resistance at $18,101 and provide an opening for a test of $18,720. The breakdown of the nearest resistance at $1,344 is what ether buyers are concentrating on. This will be sufficient to cause substantial market changes and halt a new bearish wave. Fixing the rate above $1,344 will diffuse the situation and put the remaining funds back into the ether with the possibility of a correction in the hope of raising the maximum to $1,466. The more distant target will be the $1,571 region. The $1,073 level, which was recently formed, will come into play when the pressure on the trading instrument resumes and the $1,198 level of support breaks. Its innovation will raise the trading instrument's price to at least $999. For those who own cryptocurrencies, it will be very painful below $934 and $876. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330828
The US Dollar Index Price Is Looking Higher From Here Soon

Technical Outlook Of US Dollar: Potential Rally

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.12.2022 08:27
Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.50-60 support range during the Asia session on Tuesday as consolidation continues. The index is seen to be trading close to the 103.60 level at this point in writing as bears might be testing support for the last time before giving up. A push above 104.40 will confirm that bulls are back in control and a meaningful bottom is in place above 103.00. The US dollar index might have completed its corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier. The last wave of correction seems to have terminated just above the 103.00 mark and prices bounced higher through 104.50 thereafter. If the above structure holds well, bulls will be poised to come back strong and push through 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The index remained subdued within a tight range between 103.40 and 104.30 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. The recent drop to the 103.50-60 zone could be the last wave before a bullish breakout occurs. Prices are expected to push through 107.00 at least if not higher further. Watch out for resistance around 110.50 going forward. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306387
The Outlook Of The GBP/USD Currency Pair

The Upward Correction In GBP/USD Pair Could End At Any Moment

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.12.2022 08:09
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair There were no market signals on Monday because the pair failed to test any of the presumed levels. There are no statistics due out in the UK today, so the upward correction in GBP/USD could end at any moment. Also, the upcoming US reports on the foreign trade balance, inventories in wholesale warehouses and housing price index are of little interest, but given the low trading volume, figures that are better than expected could lead the pair lower. A break of yesterday's lows will add pressure on the market, which will quickly push the pair towards monthly support levels. This is why traders should be careful when buying at the current highs. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2100 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2141 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth could occur, but do not expect strong rises. Buy when the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Pound can also be bought at 1.2061, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2100 and 1.2141. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2061 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2007. Pressure will return if the US reports strong statistics. But take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2100, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2061 and 1.2007. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330832
The EUR/USD Pair Has A Potential For The Breakout Mode

EUR/USD Pair: Volatility Will Return After The Christmas Holidays

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.12.2022 08:05
Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair There were no market signals on Monday because the pair failed to test any of the presumed levels. The same situation could occur today, but volatility will return after the Christmas holidays are over. By then, large movements will be seen in EUR/USD. For today, the pair is unlikely to move up, especially since there are no statistics due out in the Euro area. The upcoming US reports on the foreign trade balance, inventories in wholesale warehouses and housing price index are also of little interest, but given the low trading volume, figures that are better than expected could lead EUR/USD lower. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0655 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0690. Although there is a chance for growth today, it is unlikely to be last long. Also, buy only when the MACD line is above zero or starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0628, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0655 and 1.0690. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0628 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0590. Pressure will return if the US reports strong statistics. But take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0655, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0628 and 1.0590. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330830
Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.12.2022 08:03
Signs of a painful contraction in the British economy continue to accumulate, causing analysts to doubt whether the currency can extend or even maintain the recent rebound against the dollar. The options market is also showing paranoia, with traders still pessimistic over the long term. The pound sterling jumped from its lowest level ever in September, driven by the government changes that followed the ill-fated term of Liz Truss as the country's prime minister, in addition to the collapse of the dollar. Despite this, the pound sterling still recorded a decline rate of 11% in 2022, to achieve its worst year since the vote to leave Britain from the European Union "Brexit" in 2016. Opportunities for gains next year may be limited by diverging central bank policies, as the Bank of England looks increasingly pessimistic in comparison to other central banks. Moreover, the U.K. economy continues to falter, the budget deficit is skyrocketing, and double-digit inflation has led to the steepest drop in living standards on record, leading to curbs in spending and the worst economic turmoil in decades. The housing market also looks vulnerable to a sharp correction. "The UK is at the forefront of economies teetering on the verge of collapse," said John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank. He explained that the pound sterling "could witness further declines in light of the combination of the Bank of England's slowdown towards the increasing tightening of monetary policy and the austere financial situation." The pound bounced back from losses caused by efforts for a broadly funded tax cut in two weeks, but it took more than two months to reverse risks for a year to pre-budget levels. The slow recovery of this gauge, which tracks market sentiment broadly, shows that traders remain deeply pessimistic towards the long-term GBP and that the recovery in the spot market was more based on positioning than outright growth. The latest data from the Futures Trading Commission showed leveraged funds switching to short positions on the British pound in the week ending December 13, after being long positions previously, while asset managers held short positions. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts expect the pound to fall to $1.14 at the end of the first quarter, from around $1.21 now, citing their "particularly negative views" on the outlook for British economic growth. And the looming local elections in May could stir up more political uncertainty. Strategists polled by Bloomberg expect the pound to fall to $1.17 in the first quarter before recovering slightly to $1.21 by the end of 2023. Relevance up to 14:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330788
Great Britain: According to BRC, food inflation reached 13.3% in December

British pound to US dollar - technical analysis - December 23rd

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 22:43
  Overview : The GBP/USD pair hit the weekly pivot point and resistance 1, because of the series of relatively equal highs and equal lows. But, the pair has dropped down in order to bottom at the point of 1.2031. Hence, the major support was already set at the level of 1.1991. Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding with the major support this week. Additionally, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the moving average 100. The GBP/USD pair has dropped sharply from the level of 1.2164 towards 1.1991. Now, the price is set at 1.2030 to act as a daily pivot point. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.2100 and 1.1950 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.2098 and 1.2164, which coincides with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the GBP/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.2098. Thereupon, the price spot of 1.2098 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective, in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.2099, sell below 1.2099 with the first targets at 1.1991 (the double bottom is seen at 1.1991) and second target 1.1950 - 1.1950. However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 1.2164. Relevance up to 20:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306198
Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor decreased by 2.5% and 2% respectively

Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor decreased by 2.5% and 2% respectively

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 19:24
  Major Asian indices posted losses of up to 1.7% after yesterday's uptrend. The only indexes which closed in positive territory were the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite, which edged up by 0.01% and 0.07%, respectively. Other indices decreased: the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.61%, the S&P/ASX 200 dropped by 0.77%, and the Nikkei 225 slid down by 0.96%. The KOSPI was the worst performing index, shedding 1.7%. As usual, Asian markets followed US indices, which had declined the day before. The downtrend was triggered by the latest US GDP data for the last quarter. Although GDP increased by 3.2% and exceeded the preliminary estimates of 2.6% and 2.9%, market participants were anxious about the harsh monetary policy measures taken by the Federal Reserve. A stronger economy could lead the Fed to raise its key interest rate even higher. This, in turn, may result in the economic downturn that all investors fear. Meanwhile, Japanese consumer prices rose by 3.8% last month from the same period in 2021 hitting its highest level in 30 years. In October, inflation stood at 3.7%. Core CPI, which excluded food, climbed by 3.7% in November from 3.6% in September, reaching the highest level in four decades. The index exceeded the central regulator's 2% target for the eighth month in a row. Read next: Poor Stock Market Performance Meant That For Many Investors The Dollar Was A Safe Currency This Year| FXMAG.COM Shares of Japan's biggest companies plunged, with Advantest, Corp. down by 4.5%, Tokyo Electron, Ltd. dropping by 3.8% and Sapporo Holdings, Ltd. declining by 3.4%. Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan Motor posted slightly smaller losses of 2.5% and 2%, respectively, while Toyota Motor and Mazda Motor declined by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. At the same time other Japanese stocks increased: shares of Kansai Electric Power rose by 5.7%, Tokyo Electric Power gained 4.2%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Chiba Bank added 2.8% and 1.8% respectively. On the Hang Seng Index, Alibaba Health Information Technology fell by 5.1%, BYD and Geely lost 4.5% and 3.3% respectively. Netease dropped 3%, while Xiaomi and JD.com lost 2.5% and 2.3% respectively. The KOSPI was dragged down by falling stocks of major companies, with Samsung Electronics down by 1.9% and Hyundai Motor retreating by 0.6%. The largest Australian companies also posted losses. GUD Holdings dropped by 5.6%, Star Entertainment Group slid down by 4.8%, Xero and Seek lost 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Computershare and BHP dropped by 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Relevance up to 13:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330680
Analysis Of The Scenario Of The US Dollar Index

Poor Stock Market Performance Meant That For Many Investors The Dollar Was A Safe Currency This Year

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 14:13
The US dollar was one of the winning trades of 2022, peaking in September at a 20-year high, gaining about 20% against a basket of currencies. But will it dominate next year amid a slower interest rate cycle, recession fears and other external factors such as China's reopening? The current year for the U.S. dollar began with bullish sentiment, which intensified when the Federal Reserve began an aggressive tightening cycle in March. Since then, the Fed has raised a total of 425 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25–4.5%. The Fed has been one of the main drivers of the U.S. dollar. On top of that, the poor stock market performance prompted many investors to use the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to a near 20-year high above 114 in September. Looking to 2023, the Fed remains hawkish despite a slightly smaller 50 basis point increase this month compared to a 75 basis point increase in the previous four meetings. At the December press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: "We've raised 425 basis points this year, and we're into restrictive territory. It's now not so important how fast we go. It's far more important to think about what is the ultimate level. And ... how long do we remain restrictive? That will become the most important question." The key question for the U.S. dollar next year is how long the Fed will need to maintain higher rates. According to the Fed's latest economic forecasts, the average federal funds rate forecast for next year is 5.1%, with GDP projected at 0.5% and PCE inflation slowing to 3.1% in 2023. Strong dollar by the beginning of 2023 Many analysts see the future in USD trading early to mid next year, with central bank meetings and inflation data setting the tone for 2023. "FX markets are assuming that central banks can signal the all-clear on inflation and deliver gentle easing cycles to ensure soft landings in 2023. We suspect the reality will not be quite as kind to financial markets," said ING's FX strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole. "We back a stronger dollar into early 2023." Wells Fargo views 2023 as the dollar's "last hurrah" before the start of a bearish trend. "The greenback can experience a bout of renewed strength into early 2023. With the Fed likely to deliver more hikes than markets are priced for, a hawkish Fed should support the greenback," said Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook. "We believe the Fed is likely to deliver more interest rate hikes than financial markets are priced for, and indeed more tightening than many other central banks." However, by the middle of next year, the outlook is changing as the U.S. economy begins to slow down, putting pressure on the dollar. "Starting in the middle of next year, we believe growth differentials between the United States and major foreign economies should start to favor international G10 countries, and these growth dynamics should be a contributing force to a sustained dollar depreciation," Wells Fargo said. "We expect the United States to enter recession only during the second half of next year." Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330654
The Fed Needed To Get Rates Above 5% Sooner Rather Than Later

The Fed Might Not Make It To 5% Because The Data Is "Weakening Too Quickly"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 11:43
Billionaire and DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said he believes the Fed will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in February, which could make it peak at 5% next year. However, the central bank won't be able to hold it at that level as they will be forced to cut it. "You get to 5%, repeat that, then think the market will start to fall," he said. "The bond market expects the federal funds rate one year from now to be the same as that at the December meeting, which makes me wonder why bother with these hikes at all?". Gundlach also warned that the Fed might not make it to 5% because the data is "weakening too quickly". Meanwhile, Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman said such a rapid Fed rate hike is usually not conducive to stable policy. "The US economy will fluctuate a lot because of this," he said. "I think the pause in rate hikes will come sooner than predicted. The damage will be more obvious next year," Millman added. The Fed always works with hindsight, which makes its job much more difficult. "It's hard for them to see problems in the economy until it's too late. They can bring the rate up to 5% because they want to create the illusion that they are coping with inflation," Millman noted Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330640
The Ethereum Market Is In The Pull-Back Mode Now

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Could Extend Its Downside Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 10:35
ETH/USD rebounded after its sell-off. The rebound was natural as the price could test and retest the immediate resistance levels before dropping deeper. It's trading at 1,222 at the time of writing below yesterday's high of 1,236. In the last 7 days, ETH/USD is down by 4.21% but it's up by 0.85% in the last 24 hours. BTC/USD's rebound helped the price of Ethereum to rebound as well. ETH/USD Natural Growth! Technically, the rate plunged after taking out the dynamic support represented by the uptrend line. Staying below the pivot point of 1,230 could announce a new sell-off. On the contrary, a bullish closure above this immediate obstacle could announce further growth in the short term. The descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) represents a dynamic resistance. Testing and retesting this line could announce a new downside movement. ETH/USD could extend its downside movement as long as it stays below this line. ETH/USD Forecast! False breakouts above the weekly pivot point could announce a new sell-off. This could represent the first short opportunity. As long as it stays under the upper median line (uml), the rate could still be attracted by the median line (ml) Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306139
The Tokyo Core CPI Reading Is Adding Pressure On The Bank Of Japan

The Bank Of Japan Will Shock The Markets Once More Due To Inflation In Japan Has Increased

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 09:34
The Central Bank of Japan's recent actions appears to have been intended as a warning. As of today, the primary measure of inflation in Japan has increased even further and reached its highest level since 1981, which will undoubtedly increase market speculation that the Bank of Japan will shock the markets once more by altering its monetary policy in 2023. The Ministry of Internal Affairs reports that consumer prices in Japan increased by 3.7% in November compared to the same month last year. The Bank of Japan's primary index's results and the economists' evaluation were in agreement. The growth of the index was primarily driven by higher food prices, which even outpaced the growth of energy prices. It is clear that a variety of government initiatives, such as funding travel, contributed to keeping prices below 4%, but the battle against high inflation is far from over. Those who trade Japanese bonds barely responded to these data: Benchmark 10-year bonds and five-year securities both saw modest increases, which caused yields to drop by one basis point to 0.205%. The foreign exchange market hasn't undergone many notable changes either. Notably, core inflation has gone above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for eight straight months. The main trend is strengthening, as evidenced by the current level of inflation, which is 2.8% when fresh food and energy are excluded. Now, speculation that the central bank is on the verge of a policy reversal will continue to be supported by recent actions of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and recent data. Let me remind you that Kuroda shocked the markets at the beginning of the week when he announced that he would now permit the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds to rise to about 0.5%, which is twice the prior cap of 0.25%. All of this is a tactical maneuver to buy time before determining the future yield curve, which will change after the Central Bank's policy is altered next year when it is anticipated that interest rates will be raised. Many economists now anticipate that after the new governor assumes office, a policy change could occur as soon as next spring. Regarding the outlook for monetary policy, many analysts now predict that core inflation in Japan will reach 4% in December of this year before dipping to 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of new government subsidies. Furthermore, data for January won't be available until after the Bank of Japan meeting in January, although economists anticipate that these subsidies will start to have a significant impact on inflation in that month. Regarding the USDJPY pair's technical picture, it is clear that the area around 130.20 serves as strong support over the long term. After the most recent news, the level of 121.10 will be the furthest goal. Its breakdown will trigger another significant sell-off in the vicinity of 126.20. It is not necessary to mention that the demand for the yen will decline in some circumstances right now. Regarding the EURUSD's technical picture, the demand for the currency is still quite weak, but there is still a chance that it will reach its December highs. To achieve this, a break above 1.0660 is required, which will cause the trading instrument to surge toward the new December high of 1.0700. You can easily climb to 1.0740 above this point. Only the failure of support at 1.0580 will put more pressure on the pair and drive EURUSD to 1.0540 with the possibility of falling to a minimum of 1.0490 if the trading instrument declines. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330634
The Economy In Britain And The EU May Shrink In The Second Quarter Of The Fourth

The Economy In Britain And The EU May Shrink In The Second Quarter Of The Fourth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 09:29
The EUR/USD instrument has been immobilized in the final days of the current year. The upward wave e has already assumed a sufficiently extended form and should be finished, so the market sees no reason to start building a correction wave at this time. Although there hasn't been much news this week, some information has been received. Luis de Guindos, who serves as Christine Lagarde's "right hand," in particular, spoke twice this week. He stated on Monday that he had no idea how much higher ECB rates would go or how high they could go. Such statements from one of the founding members of the ECB, in my opinion, do not boost public confidence in the euro. I'm sure that the demand for the euro currency would be waning right now if the market hadn't taken its vacation earlier than expected. Just as the British pound, which also constructed a sizable wave e but has already begun to decline, is being hit by it. Luis de Guindos provided new commentary on monetary policy on Thursday, stating "The ECB will raise interest rates "at such a pace" for a predetermined period." We mean a step of 50 basis points when we say "at this rate," as was the case at the meeting in December. I'm not sure what is meant by "a certain time," though. Both "two more meetings" and "five more meetings" can be meant by this expression. The market must, however, be aware of the potential magnitude of the rate increase. Since its limit value of 4% and 6% differs, the market response and the euro exchange rate will also vary. In other words, de Guindos omitted to address the crucial issues. He asserted that the EU economy could contract by 0.2-0.3% by the end of the fourth quarter, which could signal the start of a recession. Let me remind you that two consecutive "negative" quarters at the beginning of this year, despite strong growth in the third, could have signaled the beginning of the US recession. In contrast, the economy in Britain and the EU grew only moderately in the first two quarters, shrank in the first quarter of the third, and may shrink in the second quarter of the fourth. As a result, both European economies could experience negative economic growth, which would require central banks to exercise greater caution in tightening monetary policy. In America, there are no such issues at the moment, and the rate is already getting close to its final value. The Fed no longer needs to raise rates by 75 or 50 basis points at each meeting, even though the recession may start in 2023. This situation, in my opinion, will affect the dollar in the coming month or two. This assumption fits the current wave markup very well, as a decrease is anticipated for both instruments. I conclude from the analysis that the upward trend section's construction has grown more intricate and is almost finished. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. Although there is a strong likelihood that the upward portion of the trend will become even more extended and complicated, there is currently a signal to turn lower. The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking permits the current construction of a downward trend section, I am unable to advise purchasing the instrument. With targets around the 1.1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. Wave e is likely finished, though it could take on an even longer form. Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330612
The First Outlook Of The Day Of The USD/JPY Pair Situation

Analysis And Forecast Of The US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 08:49
The USD/JPY pair rebounded after its amazing sell-off. Still, the rebound could be only temporary. The price action developed a potentially bearish pattern, so a new bearish momentum is in cards. Fundamentally, the Japanese National Core CPI rose by 3.7% matching expectations. Later today, the US is to release important economic figures. So, the fundamentals could really shake the markets. Core PCE Price Index is seen as a high-impact event and could report a 0.2% growth. Personal Income, Personal Spending, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released as well. USD/JPY Up Channel! Technically, the rate developed an up-channel pattern. As long as it stays above the minor uptrend line, the rate could approach and reach new highs. Now, it challenges the weekly S1 (132.78) static resistance (support turned into resistance). The 132.90 former high represents an upside obstacle as well. On the other hand, 132.14 stands as static support. USD/JPY Forecast! The USD/JPY pair could resume its growth if it jumps and closes above 132.90. This is seen as a buying signal. The channel's upside line represents an upside target. Dropping below 132.14 activates a sell-off and brings new short opportunities.     Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306096
An Even More Complex Correction Of The EUR/USD Pair Could Take Place

Oscar Ton's Technical Outlook Of The EUR/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 08:31
Technical outlook: EURUSD dropped to the 1.0573 low during the New York session on Thursday before finding bids again. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.0605 at this point in writing as the bears prepare for a breakout. The currency pair has remained sideways for the most part of the week and a clear break below 1.0560 would confirm a breakout. Interim resistance stays at 1.0736 keeping the bearish outlook intact for now. EURUSD turned lower from 1.0736 over the last week carving an Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern right at the trend line resistance as seen on the daily chart. Prices might rally through the 1.0670-80 zone, which is the near-term resistance, before turning lower towards the larger-degree trend. The bears are keen to take advantage until prices stay below 1.0736. EURUSD might have terminated its counter-trend rally, which began from 0.9535 around the 1.0736 highs last week. If the above holds well, prices would stay below 1.0736 and reverse lower towards 0.9535 and further in the next few weeks. On the flip side, if 0.9535 is a major bottom carved, prices should find support around the 1.0100-50 area. The bias is looking lower in the near term. Trading idea: A potential drop against 1.0750 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306088
Gold Has A Chance For The Rejection Of The Support

Gold Is Now Trading Below The Psychological Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 08:17
Early in the European session, Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 1,792.99 rebounding after a sharp drop of almost $35, registered yesterday during the American session. Yesterday in the American session, XAU/USD changed its trajectory and turned lower, quickly falling below the 6/8 Murray (1,812), the key level that we mentioned yesterday in our previous article. Gold is now trading below the psychological level of 1,800 and could remain under bearish pressure as long as it settles below the 21 SMA located at 1,805. Gold is inversely correlated with US Treasury bonds. Bonds rose yesterday on the news of weekly US jobless claims. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 0.22%, putting strong downward pressure on gold and it is likely to continue falling until it hits the key support of the 200 EMA located at 1,766. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is trading within the uptrend channel. A technical bounce at the bottom of this channel around 1,785 or if XAU/USD reaches the key zone of 5/8 Murray located at 1,781 will be seen as an opportunity to buy. On the other hand, in case gold continues to bounce and reaches the resistance zone of the 21 SMA (1,806), it will be seen as an opportunity to resume selling with targets at 1,790 and 1,781. A daily close below 5/8 Murray (1,781) and a sharp break in the uptrend channel could mean a reversal of the trend and gold could reach 1,766 (200 EMA) and could even fall to the psychological level of 1,750 (4/8 Murray). Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for gold to consolidate between 1,781 to buy or wait for it to reach 1,806 to sell. The eagle indicator is in the negative zone, so any technical rebound will be seen as an opportunity to sell. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-28 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306078
Thursday Brought Declines At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

Thursday Brought Declines At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 08:01
At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.05%, the S&P 500 index fell 1.45%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 2.18%. Dow Jones The leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Verizon Communications Inc, which gained 0.53 points (1.40%) to close at 38.31. Nike Inc rose 0.93 points (0.80%) to close at 116.71. Procter & Gamble Company rose 0.35 points or 0.23% to close at 152.19. The least gainers were Boeing Co shares, which fell 7.75 points or 3.95% to end the session at 188.25. Intel Corporation was up 3.21% or 0.86 points to close at 25.97, while Microsoft Corporation was down 2.55% or 6.24 points to close at 238.19.  S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components today were FedEx Corporation, which rose 3.35% to 175.69, VF Corporation, which gained 2.95% to close at 26.21, and Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which rose 2.10% to end the session at 9.23. The least gainers were shares of Tesla Inc, which decreased in price by 8.88%, closing at 125.35. Shares of Lam Research Corp lost 8.65% and ended the session at 409.11. Quotes of Applied Materials Inc decreased in price by 7.84% to 97.60. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were IsoPlexis Corp, which rose 102.87% to hit 1.40, E-Home Household Service Holdings Ltd, which gained 91.76% to close at 1, 35, as well as Core Scientific Inc, which rose 72.94% to end the session at 0.09. The least gainers were Akso Health Group DRC shares, which were virtually unchanged at 0.00% to close at 0.39. Shares of Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp lost 40.75% to end the session at 14.86. Quotes Pacifico Acquisition Corp fell in price by 35.06% to 1.13. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2,350) exceeded the number that closed on the plus side (735), while 101 stocks were virtually unchanged. On NASDAQ, 2,439 stocks were down, 1,256 were up, and 189 remained flat. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 9.47% to 21.97. Gold Gold futures for February delivery shed 1.41%, or 25.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery fell 0.03%, or 0.02, to $78.27 a barrel. Brent oil futures for February delivery fell 0.56%, or 0.46, to $81.74 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.09% to 1.06, while USD/JPY fell 0.08% to hit 132.37. Futures on the USD index rose 0.25% to 104.11. Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306064
Yesterday's Economic Data From The US Eased Fears Of Recession

Goldman Sachs Said The US Economy Could Avoid A Recession

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.12.2022 08:00
Although macroeconomic data are improving after the Fed's sharp increase in interest rates, signs are showing that the biggest blow to the economy is yet to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed several times that the full impact of this year's rate hike remains to be seen, so it is not clear whether there will be a recession or not, and if there is, they are not sure if it will be deep or not. Nevertheless, the Fed said real GDP will hit 0.5% in 2023, the PCE index will slow to 3.1% and the federal funds rate will peak at 5.1%. Big banks have already anticipated what is going to happen next year, with some considering a soft landing as their best case scenario. Goldman Sachs said the US economy could avoid a recession since there are good reasons to expect positive growth in the coming quarters. They forecast core inflation to slow to 3% next year, the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5%, and the US economy to grow by 1%. However, the bank noted an obvious downside risk with a recession probability of 35% next year. Morgan Stanley predicts that the US economy will break out of recession, but the landing wil not be soft as "job growth slows significantly and the unemployment rate continues to rise". Risks are also present because of interest rates, which will remain elevated for most of the year. Credit Suisse believes the US will be able to avoid an economic slowdown next year as inflation slows and the Fed pauses its rate hikes. The bank forecasts the US economy to grow by 0.8% in 2023. JPMorgan is the one that warned that a recession is very likely next year due to the over-tightening of central banks. Similarly, the Bank of America predicts a recession in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP falling by 0.4%. It predicts unemployment to rise to 5.5% by 2024, and inflation to fall to 3.2%. UBS also predicts a recession, citing high interest rates and near-zero growth in the US next year and in 2024. Wells Fargo expects a recession in the third quarter next year as a sharp rise in rates hurts demand. Capital Economics expects a moderate recession in the US next year and the Fed to be forced to cut rates by the end of 2023. According to their forecasts, GDP will grow by 0.2% over the next year and core inflation to slow to 3.2%. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330522
The XAU/USD Pair (Gold) Could Try To Resume Its Growth

Gold supported by, among others, changes on Japanese bond market, may end the year trading at a 4-month high

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 21:05
In light of expectations that US inflation will continue to decline, US stock indices are gradually contributing to growth. Let me remind you that, according to the most recent report, inflation in the US showed slower growth than predicted, exerting strong pressure on the Federal Reserve System, which led it to decide to pursue a less aggressive policy for the upcoming year.     All of this maintains the demand for precious metals like gold. Since traders have been actively buying it throughout the entire month, the year will likely end at a 4-month high. Japan "drove up" here as well with its bond market changes, which only prompted the metal to continue its steady growth. Premarket Following the retailer CarMax's quarterly profit and revenue missing forecasts, shares fell 12.7% in premarket trading. Used car sales fell by 22.4% instead of the predicted 16.9%, and CarMax earned 24 cents per share as opposed to the forecast of 70 cents. Read next: Bitcoin enters the list of the most popular tickers on Yahoo Finance, report finds| FXMAG.COM After the chipmaker reported higher-than-expected quarterly losses and earnings that missed forecasts, Micron shares dropped 2.9% in premarket trading. A decline in the demand for electronics had an impact on Micron's performance, and as a result, the company announced a 10% employee reduction. Following the release of higher-than-anticipated profit and revenue numbers for the previous quarter, MillerKnoll securities increased 2.9% in the premarket. The manufacturer of furniture was able to offset a 13% drop in orders by raising prices. Following the FDA's approval of a new colorectal cancer drug development, shares of the pharmaceutical company increased by 9.4% in the premarket. This expedites the approval of treatment plans. According to the S&P500's technical picture, the index might keep expanding. Today, securing $3,858 will be of the utmost importance. We can anticipate a more assured upward jerk when trading is conducted above this range, which will lay the groundwork for bolstering the trading instrument to $3,891, from which the index has already fallen once yesterday. The level of $3,923 is a little higher and will be challenging to surpass. Buyers simply have to declare themselves around $3,858 in the event of a downward movement because only $3,830 is below that level, after which the index will come under more pressure. The trading instrument's closest target is the $3,773 region, and the breakdown will quickly push it to $3,802. Relevance up to 15:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330564
BoE hawkishness didn't help pound sterling. Judging from experts' opinions the bank may get rid of hiking next year or slow down the process

BoE hawkishness didn't help pound sterling. Judging from experts' opinions the bank may get rid of hiking next year or slow down the process

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 20:58
The pound against the dollar follows the U.S. currency, while ignoring "own" fundamental factors. In general, the volatility in the currency market has noticeably decreased—even the USD/JPY pair, which fell 700 points at the beginning of the week, is now drifting in a relatively narrow price range. The pound sterling also does not show much activity, although last week, GBP/USD first updated the semi-annual high (1.2444) and then fell sharply, ending the five-day period at around 1.2119. Such a rapid 300-point price spurt occurred after the announcement of the results of the last meeting of the Bank of England this year. Even though the British regulator made hawkish decisions from the formal point of view (raising the interest rate by 50 points and indicating its further course for rate hike), the pound was not the beneficiary of the December meeting. Moreover, traders were skeptical about the declared course of the British regulator—according to some experts, the BoE will either slow down the pace of tightening monetary policy or take a break next year.     Such assumptions of a "dovish" nature did not appear out of nowhere. Analyzing the results of the December meeting, we can conclude that the emphasis in the rhetoric of the central bank members is gradually shifting towards the assessment of the side effects of monetary tightening. At the same time, the regulator made a separate note of the slowdown in inflation growth: inflation indicators are expected to continue gradually slowing down in the first quarter of next year. Overall, the tone of the BoE's final communique was less forceful than the rhetoric of the accompanying statements of the Fed, the European Central Bank and even the Swiss National Bank. However, these are subtle signals of a verbal nature. And quite probably, the scale at the December meeting would have tipped in favor of the pound, if not for one "but": two (of nine) members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted against rate hike. Newly appointed (to replace Michael Saunders) Swati Dhingra, as well as Silvana Tenreyro, were in favor of keeping the interest rate at 3%. That, they said, is "more than enough" to bring inflation back to the target level. Also, representatives of the Committee's dovish wing stressed that there is currently no compelling reason to further increase the rate "for risk management reasons." Read next: Bitcoin enters the list of the most popular tickers on Yahoo Finance, report finds| FXMAG.COM And although the rest of their colleagues supported the next round of tightening monetary policy, the manifestation of "dissidence" alerted market participants. Previously, members of the Committee took unanimous decisions, so the lack of solidity (even in such a minimal manifestation) put pressure on the pound. At the same time, the actual split in the Committee was supplemented by rather cautious wording of the accompanying statement. That is why there was a stalemate situation on the GBP/USD pair. The Bank of England did not become an ally of the British currency, thus extinguishing the upward trend. But the bears need the strong dollar to increase the pressure on the pair. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is fluctuating in a narrow range, waiting for the next information impulse. Friday's release of the PCE Core Index growth data may be that impulse. On the weekly chart, the GBP/USD pair updated a multi-year low at the end of September, reaching 1.0345. After that, the price turned 180 degrees and "walked" more than 2,000 points since then, marking the high of the year at 1.2444. According to a number of currency strategists, for buyers of GBP/USD this is a kind of ceiling that will not be overcome in the medium term. The Bank of England was the "last hope" for the pair's bulls, at least in the context of the current year. Today, the pound came under additional pressure after the release of data on the growth of the British economy for the third quarter. The final estimate was released today, which was unexpectedly revised downward. Thus, the UK economy shrank by 0.3% on a quarterly basis (initial estimate of -0.2%, as in the previous month). The market expected a decline of 0.2% in the reporting period. On an annualized basis, UK GDP grew by 1.9% in the third quarter. This component has been substantially revised downwards from an initial estimate of 2.4%. At the moment, it is advisable to take a wait-and-see attitude for the GBP/USD pair, given tomorrow's inflation release. Obviously, the pound is currently following the greenback, so the price dynamics in the medium term will be determined by this report. According to most analysts, the PCE index will fall to 4.6% in November. In this case, the indicator will update a multi-month low, reflecting the weakest growth rate since October 2021. In such a fundamental scenario, the dollar will be under pressure throughout the market, including in pair with the pound. But if the release comes out in the green zone, the back reaction of dollar bulls will follow: GBP/USD will consolidate under the 1.2000 key level, having determined for itself the next "round" and psychologically important target at 1.1900. Relevance up to 13:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330556
Bitcoin Is In A Continuous Upward Trend For 17 Days Straight

Bitcoin enters the list of the most popular tickers on Yahoo Finance, report finds

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 20:51
The year of crypto winter is coming to an end. In the short term, there are no prerequisites for improving the situation. Inflation remains high, the Fed and other central banks will continue to raise rates. And it is possible that some other crypto projects may suffer disaster. And as surprising as it may be, interest in the main cryptocurrency has skyrocketed over the course of the year. Bitcoin is in the top 10 assets by investor interest The price of Bitcoin fell below $16,000 after the FTX crash, but large investors appear to have used this as an opportunity to buy more. This is the kind of interest that reverberated throughout the year as prices plummeted from last year's peak above $69,000. According to an internal metric that Yahoo Finance uses to measure investor interest across markets, BTC has seen intense investor scrutiny even as prices tumbled to lows last seen in 2020. A report released by the company on Thursday showed that the BTCUSD quote has so far racked up over 157 million views in 2022. Along with other leading assets, the main cryptocurrency is in the top ten. As of Thursday, Bitcoin was ranked 8th in the top 10 most popular tickers on the platform.     In this ranking, Tesla shares are at the top spot with over 398 million views, followed by the three major U.S. indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq). Tech giant Apple Inc. ranked 5th with over 249 million page views, followed by Amazon with 199 million page views. Ethereum is in 25th place on the list in terms of investor interest, which is currently measured by 63.8 million page views. Elsewhere, Coinbase was also at the top of the list of interesting investors' assets, while stocks of cryptocurrency companies ranked 30th after more than 57 million quote views. Bill Miller: It's not all bad for Bitcoin yet Of course, the crypto winter is far from the most pleasant period for the market. But even now, among experienced investors, there are those who retain faith in the main cryptocurrency and bullish sentiment. Legendary American value investor Bill Miller is surprised by Bitcoin's performance despite the imperfect cryptocurrency market. In a recent interview, he revealed that he expects BTC to drop further after the FTX debacle. Investors are withdrawing their coins from the market as the dust from the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange has not yet settled. Read next: The Number Of Dead Coins In 2022 Is Significantly Lower Than In 2021| FXMAG.COM He went on to add that he is optimistic about BTC performance going forward: "I'm surprised Bitcoin isn't at half of its current price, given the FTX implosion. People have fled the space, so the fact that it's still hanging in there at $17,000 is pretty remarkable. But inflation is being attacked, and real rates are rising rapidly. I would expect that if and when the Federal Reserve begins to pivot [toward easier monetary policy], Bitcoin would do quite well." Treat Bitcoin Like Gold Miller is a bitcoin holder who believes that the main cryptocurrency should be treated like gold. He believes in the long-term investment power of the coin. "First, I want to differentiate between Bitcoin, which I see as a potential store of value like digital gold, and all the other cryptocurrencies, which can be lumped together in the category of venture speculation. Most of them, like most venture investments, will fail. But I've never heard a good argument that you shouldn't put at least 1% of your net worth into Bitcoin. Anybody can afford to lose 1%." Miller's ability to speculate is evident in the fact that his portfolio management outperformed the S&P 500 from 1991 to 2005 consecutively. Relevance up to 16:00 2022-12-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330570
The US Dollar Index Is Now Facing Strong Resistance

The US Dollar Is Expected To Rise During The American Trading Session

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 14:26
Almost at the end of an active trading week (ahead of the Christmas holidays), the dollar remains under pressure. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) does not leave attempts to update new (since the end of June) lows. Last week, DXY futures touched the 103.40 mark, the lowest since June 29, and this week they again came close to it three times (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). As of writing, DXY was at 103.69, 26 points above today's low. Market participants are still under the impression of the Fed meeting, which ended last week. As we know, Fed officials decided to reduce the pace of monetary policy tightening, raising the interest rate by 0.50% (after raising the rate by 0.75% in June, July, September, November). And although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tried to dispel doubts that market participants had about the tough prospects for monetary policy and the dollar strengthened the day after the meeting, in general, the dollar index continues to develop downward dynamics that originated in October. As we noted in one of our recent reviews, many economists are already predicting the Fed will cut the size of the rate hike again in early 2023, moving on to 0.25% hikes in February and March. And this is a harbinger of a deeper drop in DXY. The first signal for new short positions will be a breakdown of the local support level and 50 EMA on the weekly chart of the DXY index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal), passing through 104.50, and the 104.00 "round" support level. As you can see, both support levels have been broken, and the sellers of the dollar and DXY index are trying to gain a foothold in the zone below the 104.00 mark to push it lower towards the 100.00 "round" support level. A breakdown of the 98.40 key support level will finally break the DXY bullish trend. As for today's economic calendar, a whole block of important macro statistics for the United States will be released at 13:30 GMT. In addition to the final releases on GDP, price indices for the 3rd quarter (the data should confirm the growth of indicators), the weekly report on the state of the U.S. labor market will be published with data on the number of jobless claims. The state of the labor market (together with GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Initial and continuing claims for benefits are expected to remain at pre-pandemic lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the U.S. labor market. In view of this, we should expect the dollar to rise during the American trading session. However, we also need to be prepared for its decline, especially if the data does not live up to expectations, or revised for the worse. Tomorrow, market participants will closely follow the publication (also at 13:30 GMT) of data on orders for durable goods in the U.S. and Americans' personal income/spending data. All these are important indicators for the dollar. In other words, an active increase in volatility is expected at the end of the week, giving us some interesting trading opportunities.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330542
Commodities: Copper Continued To Trade Around Its Highest Level

Commodity Analysts At CIBC Believe That The Recession Will Affect Copper Demand

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 14:05
After a disappointing 2022, the copper market is expected to have another volatile year as the base metal finds itself between a global recession, an ongoing clean energy transition and growing demand for electric vehicles, according to some commodity analysts. Copper started 2022 on a positive note as the market saw rising demand and limited supply. In the first quarter of 2022, copper prices soared to an all-time high of over $10,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, with U.S. high-grade copper futures climbing above $5 per pound. However, record prices were short-lived, and a sharp decline fueled by growing fears of a recession sent copper prices to nearly a two-year low below $7,000 per tonne or $3.20 per pound. Although copper managed to rebound from its multi-year low. Looking ahead, many commodity analysts expect copper prices to remain low as central bank tightening and weak demand from China weigh on the market, at least in the first half of the year. "Recession fears, China's slowdown due to its Covid-19 restrictions, and the Fed's interest rate hiking path will continue to drive copper's short-term price outlook, however tightening supply should maintain the red metal's price support above $7,500/t throughout 2023," said ING analysts in their 2023 outlook. However, ING also sees an improvement in the copper market in the second half of 2023, with prices above $8,000 per tonne. Commodity analysts at Bank of America are more optimistic that copper prices will rebound in the second half of the year after a disappointing start. The bank sees that prices could rise above $12,000 per tonne. Along with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs is also optimistic. In early December, the financial institution raised its 12-month copper price target to $11,000 per tonne from a previous $9,000 forecast. Goldman Sachs forecasts average copper prices in 2023 to be around $9,750 per tonne, with the average price rising to $12,000 per tonne by 2024. Commodity analysts at CIBC are less optimistic about copper and believe that the recession will affect demand. The Canadian bank expects copper prices to average around $3.35 per pound in the first half of the year, 11% below their previous forecast. Prices are expected to rise to an average of $3.65 per pound in the second half of next year. However, not all analysts are optimistic about copper ahead of the new year. Mike McGlone, senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said industrial metals will not be able to withstand the impending slowdown in economic activity. For many analysts, copper has become a critical long-term metal as the world upgrades its energy infrastructure and moves towards clean, renewable energy. Analysts at S&P Market Intelligence said that global demand for copper is expected to double by 2035. The research firm predicts that there will be a significant shortage of copper by 2025. Copper, the "metal of electrification," is essential to all clean energy transition plans. Deeper electrification requires wires, and wires are mostly made of copper. Technologies such as electric vehicles (EV), charging infrastructure, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind and batteries are very important for the transition to new energy; they require much more copper than conventional fossil-based counterparts. Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330520
The Upward Movement Of GBP/USD Pair Can Resume Almost At Any Moment

The GBP/USD Pair Rebounded As The Dollar Index Remains Under Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 08:33
1.2120 at the time of writing. It has bounced back as the Dollar Index remains under pressure. You already know from my analyses that the DXY is in a major corrective phase. Fundamentally, the US and UK data came in mixed yesterday. Today, the UK Final GDP could drop by 0.2%, the Current Account could be reported at -20.0B, while Revised Business Investment may report a 0.5% drop. On the other hand, the US Final GDP could report a 2.9% growth, the Final GDP Price Index may register a 4.3% growth, CB Leading Index is expected to drop by 0.5%, while the Unemployment Claims indicator could increase from 211K to 221K. GBP/USD Rebound! The instrument is challenging the descending pitchfork's median line (ml). This stands as a dynamic resistance. As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate drops along the median line. It has failed to stabilize above or below the sliding lines (sl, sl1). Yesterday's low of 1.2055 represents a static downside obstacle. The rate could slip lower as long as it stays below the 1.2133, median line, and under the upside sliding line (sl1). A valid breakout above the upside sliding line (sl1) could invalidate a deeper drop and could announce a potential lege higher. GBP/USD Forecast! Testing and retesting the resistance levels, registering only false breakouts could announce a new potential drop. Still, only a new lower low, a valid breakdown below 1.2055 confirms a deeper drop. This scenario could announce a potential drop toward the lower median line (lml). Jumping and stabilizing above the sl1 could bring new long setups. Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305920
Swiss Pension Fund Publica Will Increase Its Share Of Gold To 1%

Gold: The Uptrend Line Could Bring New Long Opportunities

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 08:22
The price of Gold is trading at 1,819 at the time of writing. The bias is bullish in the short term as the DXY is still in the corrective phase. As you already know from my previous analysis, XAU/USD reached a resistance zone, so we need confirmation. The yellow metal continues to stay higher, even though the Canadian CPI reported a 0.1% growth versus the 0.0% growth expected, while the US CB Consumer Confidence came in at 108.3 versus 101.0 expected. Today, the US data could have an impact. The Final GDP is expected to report a 2.9% growth, while Unemployment Claims could jump from 211K to 221K in the last week. XAU/USD At Resistance! XAU/USD continues to challenge the R1 (1,820) after jumping and closing above the 150% Fibonacci line. The rate failed to come back to test and retest the 1,808 static support and now it tries to resume its growth. As you already know from my previous analysis, the 1,824 high represents an upside obstacle as well. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above 1,807 and above the uptrend line. XAU/USD Forecast! A new higher high, valid breakout through 1,824 activates further growth. This is seen as a new buying setup. Also, coming back to test and retest 1,807 and the uptrend line could bring new long opportunities. Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305912
The British Pound (GBP) Made A Strong Technical Rebound

The Cable Market (GBP/USD) Is Likely To Continue The Technical Rebound

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 08:08
Early in the European session, the British pound (GBP/USD) is trading at 1.2109. It is rebounding after reaching a low of 1.2054 yesterday in the American session. It is currently trading below the 21 SMA and within a falling wedge pattern whose break could lead to a bullish movement in the British pound in the next few days. In case there is a technical bounce around this technical figure between 1.2045 or in case it falls towards the 200 EMA located at 1.2021, it could be considered an opportunity to buy with targets at 1.2145 and 6/8 Murray (1.2207). The US dollar index (UDX) recovers after heavy losses of the previous day which in turn is considered a key factor putting downward pressure on GBP/USD. However, the dollar is likely to remain under downward pressure until the end of the year, which benefits the recovery of the British pound. We expect a strong technical bounce to occur around the 200 EMA (1.2021) or around the psychological level of 1.20. Only a significant break below these supports could cause strong bearish pressure and the British pound could fall to the area of 1.15 in the medium term. Conversely, a sharp break above 1.2145 could be a clear signal to buy the British pound with targets at 1.2207 (6/8 Murray) and 1.2323. On the contrary, in case the British pound fails to break the strong resistance of 1.2145, we could expect a decline and a continuation of the bearish movement and GBP/USD could fall towards the 200 EMA around 1.2021. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the eagle indicator has reached the extremely oversold area. It is likely to continue the technical rebound in the next few hours and could reach levels of 1.23 in the next few days. Relevance up to 04:00 2022-12-27 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305889
On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,131 Companies Rose In Price

A Positive Close On The New York Stock Exchang, 2414 Securities Rose In Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.12.2022 08:00
At the close of the day on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.60%, the S&P 500 rose 1.49%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.54%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 12.57 points or 12.18% to close at 115.78. Quotes Boeing Co rose by 7.71 points (4.09%), ending trading at 196.00. Caterpillar Inc rose 2.80% or 6.59 points to close at 241.73. The leaders of the fall were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.93 points or 2.35% to end the session at 38.60. The Walt Disney Company rose 0.10 points (0.11%) to close at 86.92, while McDonald's Corporation rose 0.91 points (0.34%) to close at 268. 16. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Nike Inc, which rose 12.18% to 115.78, APA Corporation, which gained 5.76% to close at 46.67, and Etsy Inc, which rose 5.69% to end the session at 134.33. The leaders of the fall were Host Hotels & Resorts Inc, which shed 6.09% to close at 15.88. Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc shed 2.35% to end the session at 38.60. Quotes Western Digital Corporation fell in price by 2.18% to 31.38. NASDAQ The top gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Gorilla Technology Group Inc, which rose 69.79% to 4.74, SINTX Technologies Inc, which gained 57.16% to close at 11.74. as well as shares of Rekor Systems Inc, which rose 56.45% to close the session at 0.93. The leaders of the fall were Meiwu Technology Co Ltd, which shed 83.43% to close at 0.32. Shares of Core Scientific Inc lost 75.53% and ended the session at 0.05. Quotes Icecure Medical Ltd fell in price by 46.92% to 1.38. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2414) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (679), while quotes of 99 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2469 companies rose in price, 1219 fell, and 186 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 6.56% to 20.07. Gold Gold futures for February delivery lost 0.04%, or 0.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 2.90%, or 2.21, to $78.44 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for February delivery rose 2.91%, or 2.33, to $82.32 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.08% to 1.06, while USD/JPY was up 0.47% to hit 132.32. Futures on the USD index rose 0.24% to 103.85. Relevance up to 03:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305885
The US Core PCE Data Will Be Crucial For The USD/JPY Pair

Higher Yields Will Mean Unrealized Losses On Japanese Government Bonds

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 09:51
Yen shot up on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan made a very bold decision on monetary policy. However, what is more important is the statements of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, which gave investors an indication of what to expect when the policy ends. Yesterday, Kuroda shocked markets by announcing that he will allow 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%. This is obviously a strategic adjustment to buy time in determining the yield curve next year following the changes in central bank policy, when interest rates are forecast to rise. Currently, the yield on 10-year Japanese securities is at 0.46%. This has led to a rise in Japanese bank stocks as investors are waiting for higher returns from financial institutions. Kuroda said all decisions taken were in order to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy. Given that his term ends next year, there will be at least two more meetings under his leadership, which means that his successor will complete the path to policy normalization. But there are those who point out that higher yields will mean unrealized losses on Japanese government bonds, including those held by the Bank of Japan. A sustained policy change could also hit Japanese stocks, as well as break the latest bond yield peg and trigger a sell-off in dollar in favor of yen. That will lead to Japanese investors divesting from overseas investments, which could result in a sell-off in emerging markets. As mentioned earlier, the forex market reacted to this by moving quite strongly. In USD/JPY, there is a strong support around 130.20, and its breakdown will lead to another sell-off around 126.20 to 121.10. In EUR/USD, demand remains quite weak, but there is a chance to return to December highs if the European Central Bank retains its hawkish monetary policy. However, traders need to keep the quote above 1.0660 because only by that will euro hit 1.0700 and 1.0740. In case of a decline below 1.0580, pressure will surge, which will push the quote to 1.0540 and 1.0490. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330368
The Loonie Pair (USD/CAD) Is Looking To Shift Its Business

Today's Release Has The Potential To Trigger Price Turbulence In The USD/CAD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 09:50
USD/CAD is falling this week, demonstrating a downtrend after five weeks of consecutive growth. So, the loonie was near 1.3250 in the beginning of November, but last Friday, the bulls tested the 37th figure. The 500-point march was accompanied by corrective pullbacks, but in general, the uptrend was clearly visible. Conflicting results on the Bank of Canada's December meeting only fueled the bullish sentiment. Despite the greenback's shaky position, the USD/CAD bulls were rising, eventually climbing to the 37th figure. But their confidence ran out in this price area. Obviously, the bulls need a source of information to boost them so they can work on a bullish attack. However, bears also need some informational boost to develop a bearish pullback to 1.3550 (upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1), and then to 1.3460 (lower limit of this cloud on the same chart). Today's report may "rattle" the pair. At the start of Wednesday's U.S. trading session, Canada will release key data on the country's inflation growth. And in light of the controversial results of the Bank of Canada's December meeting, this report is particularly significant to the Loonie. Two weeks ago, the Canadian central bank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem lamented the high inflation rate and positively assessed the dynamics of the national economy growth in the third quarter. On the one hand, the formal results of the December meeting were in favor of the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, a closer look at these results suggests opposite conclusions. By the way, the Canadian dollar reacted negatively to the stance of the accompanying statement, falling in many currency pairs. And here's why. Behind the central bank's statement that inflation in Canada is still at an unacceptably high level is an inherently opposite clarification. The Bank of Canada said in an accompanying statement that the three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down - and according to central bank economists, this is "an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum." In other words, the central bank saw the first signs of a slowdown in inflationary growth, with all the consequences that this implies. In fact, the possible consequences of a further decline in inflation are also mentioned in the text of the final communique. The phrase in question is worth quoting in full: The "Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target". Such preceding statements add value to an already significant macro report. This suggests that today's release has the potential to trigger price turbulence in the USD/CAD pair, especially if the final numbers deviate from projections. Let me remind you that in October, the core consumer price index (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), in annualized terms, declined to 5.8% from the previous 6% value. Instead of a decline, most experts expected an increase to 6.3%. According to preliminary forecasts, the downtrend will develop in November. Thus, according to the majority of experts, the core CPI will come out at 5.6% (y/y): this could be the weakest growth rate of the indicator since March 2022. As for overall inflation, a decline in indicators is also expected - both in monthly and annual terms. In particular, in monthly terms, the index should decline into negative territory (-0.1%) after growth to 0.7% in October. On a year-on-year basis, the index is likely to come out at 6.6% (the weakest growth rate since February of this year). As we can see, the forecasts are rather weak, so if the report turns out to be in the red zone, the Canadian dollar will be under a lot of pressure. In such a case, the pair might retest the 37th figure again, updating the current week's high (1.3702). Take note that the resistance level is slightly higher, at 1.3760 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), so the USD/CAD bulls have a good chance to break through the 37th figure, if the current inflation report turns out to be a disappointment. However, an alternative scenario is also possible: if the report is in the green zone, the bears could develop a bearish rollback to 1.3550 (Kumo cloud upper limit at D1) and then to 1.3460 (Kumo cloud lower limit on the same chart). At the moment, it would be best to maintain a wait-and-see attitude on the pair: the inflation report will determine the price movement vector in the medium term. Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330374
A Further Rise In Gold Is Very Likely, The Dovish Expectations Are Feeding Well Into The Bond Markets

Analysis Of Gold Situation: The Bias Remains Bullish

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 09:45
Gold rallied in the short term and it has climbed as much as 1,821 yesterday registering a new high. As you already know, the bias is bullish but an upside continuation needs confirmation. After its rally, we cannot exclude a temporary retreat. The rate could come to test and retest the immediate support levels trying to accumulate more bullish energy. As you already know from my yesterday's analysis, Canada is to release its inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index may report a 0.0% growth versus 0.7% in the previous reporting period. In addition, the US CB Consumer Confidence is expected to grow from 100.2 points to 101.0, while Existing Home Sales could drop from 4.43M to 4.20M. XAU/USD Bullish Bias! As you already know from yesterday's analysis, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line and above 1,807. The price found resistance at the weekly R1 (1,820) and now it could come back to retest the 1,807 static support. Consolidation above the downside obstacle signals that the rate attracted more bullish energy before resuming its growth. XAU/USD Forecast! Testing and retesting the 1,807 and staying above it could announce a new upside momentum. This scenario could bring new long opportunities. Still, an upside continuation could be activated by a new higher high. So, a valid breakout above 1,824 activates an upside continuation and brings new buying signals. Relevance up to 07:00 2022-12-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305733
The British Pound Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion Of The Bullish Force

The GBP/USD Pair Action Signaled That The Downside Movement Ended

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:52
The GBP/USD pair dropped a little in the short term as the Dollar Index tried to rebound. Now, it is trading at 1.2166 at the time of writing. After its strong growth, a temporary retreat was natural. The instrument could test and retest the immediate downside obstacles before jumping higher. The price action signaled that the downside movement ended and that the buyers could take the lead. Fundamentally, the UK is to release the CBI Realized Sales and the Public Sector Net Borrowing but I don't think that the indicator will have an impact. Later today, the Canadian inflation figures could have a big impact on the USD as well. Also, the US CB Consumer Confidence could increase from 100.2 to 101.0. This is seen as a high-impact event as well. GBP/USD Retests Sellers! Technically, the rate dropped but it has failed to take out the 1.2133 - 1.2106 zone. Now, it has come back above the descending pitchfork's median line (ml). So, the median line and the demand zone represent downside obstacles. Testing and retesting these levels could announce a new bullish momentum. New false breakdowns could signal exhausted sellers and strong buyers. GBP/USD Forecast! As long as it stays above 1.2133 and above the median line (ml), the GBP/USD pair could develop a new bullish momentum. Testing and retesting, registering false breakdowns could bring a new long opportunity. Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305727
Forex: US dollar against Japanese yen amid volatility and macroeconomics

US Dollar: The Bulls Prepare To Break Above The Resistance Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:44
Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.36 lows on Tuesday before finding support again. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.75 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to break above the 104.50-60 interim resistance. The near-term projections are towards 105.70 and 107.10 respectively, taking out immediate resistances as marked on the 4H chart here. The US dollar index might have carved a meaningful bottom around 103.00 last week. The index has carved an upswing between 103.07 and 104.50 levels, which has been followed by a corrective drop back towards 103.36 recently. If the above short-term wave structure holds well, the bulls will remain inclined to push through 107.10 in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index seems to have completed its corrective decline towards 103.36 and bounced off higher producing a Morning Star candlestick pattern. A high probability remains for prices to hold above 103.07 and push higher towards 105.50 and 107.10 in the next few weeks. The possibility remains for a push through 110.50 going forward. Trading idea: Potential rally towards 107.00 against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305723
Soft PMIs Are Further Signs Of A Weak UK Economy

Andrew Bailey Signaled The Start Of A Recession In The British Economy

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:38
It's fair to say that this week is a festive one. First off, it is Catholic Christmas this Sunday. Second, there won't be much historical context for the news. The most intriguing report of the week focused on the third quarter's GDP in the UK, in particular. This, however, will be the indicator's third estimate for the third quarter. The third estimate is not likely to differ significantly from the first two given that the previous two estimates showed a decrease of 0.2%, even though a 0.5% drop was initially anticipated. But as I've mentioned in earlier articles, a lot now depends on the interest rates set by the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Fed. The ECB and the Bank of England have not yet been able to approach the Fed rate, although rate-hike cycles are already coming to an end. In the United States, the rate is predicted to increase to 5.25%, while in the European Union, it is currently 2.5% and has already started to decline. Christine Lagarde has never discussed the ultimate rate at which the ECB aspires, and Luis de Guindos said yesterday that he is unsure of the level at which the interest rate must be raised. It sounded as though he was saying, "I don't know to what value the rate will rise," rather than, "I don't know to what value we will be able to raise the rate." The ECB's ambiguity is still half the problem, though. With great difficulty, the Bank of England in the UK managed to slightly lower inflation after raising the rate for eight straight meetings. In this scenario, the British regulator would need to maintain a pace of 75 basis points of tightening monetary policy, but in December, they dropped to 50 points, and a survey by the Bank of England revealed that the market does not anticipate rates to rise above 4.25%. I'm not sure what kind of survey the British regulator conducted or who took part in it, but bakers with movers were most definitely excluded. Analysts and economists, I suppose. And if they truly do not anticipate another rate increase of more than 75 basis points, this could have the most detrimental effects on the pound, which has been rising recently precisely because the Bank of England is catching up to the Fed, which means it will raise interest rates more strongly and for a longer period. However, in reality, it might be the opposite. Let me remind you that Andrew Bailey signaled the start of a recession in the British economy; consequently, with each new tightening of policy, the regulator runs the risk of making the recession worse. The slowdown and, going forward, the refusal of additional tightening are most likely related to this understanding. Notably, the Bank of England may stop raising rates at the same time as the Fed, which would be in February or March of the following year. The likelihood of completing the construction of an upward section of the trend, in my opinion, has increased. For the next two weeks, we may be in the "holiday trading" phase, but in January 2023, I will once again wait for the development of a minimum correction section of the trend for both of the instruments that I monitor daily. I conclude from the analysis that the upward trend section's construction has grown more intricate and is almost finished. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. Although there is a strong likelihood that the upward portion of the trend will become even more extended and complicated, there is currently a signal to turn lower. The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking permits the current construction of a downward trend section, I am unable to advise purchasing the instrument. With targets around the 1.1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. Wave e is likely finished, though it could take on an even longer form.
The Outlook Of EUR/USD Pair Is Downward In The Near Term

The Outlook Of EUR/USD Pair Is Downward In The Near Term

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:36
Technical outlook: EURUSD has been oscillating sideways within a tight range of 1.0580 to 1.0650 over the last few trading sessions. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 1.0610 at this point in writing, closer to the lower border of consolidation. A breakout can be expected this week since the triangle consolidation range is around 70 pips. EURUSD had surpassed the 1.0736 high over the last week before finding resistance. The currency pair turned lower from its 18-month resistance trend line and produced an Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern as seen on the daily chart. A high probability remains for a turn lower towards the 1.0100-50 area at least in the next several trading sessions. EURUSD is facing stiff resistance around the 1.0640-50 zone and might have terminated its triangle consolidation. A break below 1.0570-80 is now awaited to confirm a bearish breakout, which could accelerate a move lower towards the 1.0100-50 area. Also, note that the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent upswing between 0.9740 and 1.0736 is seen passing close to the above range. The outlook is downward in the near term. Trading idea: Potential bearish turn against 1.0750 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305717
The Upward Movement Of GBP/USD Pair Can Resume Almost At Any Moment

GBP/USD Pair: The Bears Are Still Unsuccessfully

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:32
Yesterday, a few entry signals were made. Let's take a look at the M5 chart to get a picture of what happened. In the previous review, we focused on the mark of 1.2177 and considered entering the market there. Growth and a false breakout through the level, following the bears' attempts to reach the weekly low, produced a sell signal. The pair plunged by over 40 pips. In the course of the North American session, the pair retested the mark of 1.2160 to the upside, which created a sell entry point, and the price plummeted by another 60 pips. When to go long on GBP/USD: The pair is still trading sideways due to the absence of any macro releases. Rare fluctuations have a negative effect only on speculators' stop orders, while the general market situation remains the same. Today, the UK will see the release of data on public net borrowing and CBI distributive trades. These figures have nothing to do with the forex market. Therefore, they are unlikely to somehow affect the pair. For that reason, it is wiser to go long after a false breakout through the nearest support level of 1.2152, which is in line with the bullish moving averages. The quote may then go to the resistance level of 1.2219, which is also the upper limit of the channel. It is important that the bulls break through the mark and consolidate above it as this will allow them to push the pair to 1.2301. If the pair tests this level, this will mean that major players have returned to the market. The quote will rise to 1.2350, where it is wiser to lock in profits, in case of a downside retest of this level. However, if the bulls fail to maintain control over 1.2152, it will become possible to go long after a false breakout through 1.2087, the lower limit of the channel. GBP/USD could be bought on a rebound from 1.2009, allowing a correction of 30 to 35 pips intraday. When to go short on GBP/USD: The bears are still unsuccessfully trying to update weekly lows. Due to the current sideways trend, it is wiser to sell the instrument as higher as possible. A false breakout through the nearest resistance level of 1.2219 will generate a sell signal with the target at 1.2152, which is in line with the moving averages. A breakout and a retest of this mark to the upside will create a sell entry point with the target at 1.2087. The most distant target stands at 1.2009 where it is wiser to lock in profits. In case of growth in GBP/USD and the absence of the bears at 1.2219, the bulls will tighten their grip on the market. A sell entry point will form after a false breakout through 1.2301. If there is no trading activity there, GBP/USD could be sold on a rebound from 1.2350, allowing a bearish correction of 30 to 35 pips intraday. Commitments of Traders: The COT report for December 13th logged a rise in long and short positions. Given that the number of long positions exceeds that of short positions, the pair is now facing strong buying pressure. In fact, traders are ready to buy the pair at the current high price. Last week, the Bank of England announced it would continue hiking rates to fight stubborn inflation, which slowed down a bit last month. The regulator's policy makes experts think that the UK economy is in a recession. Therefore, the pair's growth potential is likely to be limited. For that reason, it is wiser to wait for a downward correction in order to buy the instrument. According to the latest COT report, short non-commercial positions rose by 1,015 to 57,747 and long non-commercial positions grew by 3,469 to 32,008. Consequently, the non-commercial net position came in at -25,739 versus -28,193 a week ago. The weekly closing price of GBP/USD increased to 1.2149 versus 1.1958. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the range of the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting a sideways trend in the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are viewed by the author on the hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart. Bollinger Bands Resistance stands at 1.2185, in line with the upper band. Indicator description: Moving average (MA) determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Colored yellow on the chart. Moving average (MA) determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Colored green on the chart. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). Fast EMA 12. Slow EMA 26. SMA 9. Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions are the total long position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions are the total short position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Relevance up to 04:00 2022-12-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330362
Gold Is Showing The Strong Upside Momentum

Gold (XAUUSD) Is Trading Around The Downtrend Channel

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:19
Early in the European session, Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 1,816.14 above the 6/8 Murray and within the downtrend channel formed on December 12. Yesterday, during the European session and the American session, gold started a strong bullish movement after it had broken the pennant pattern. In view of the fact that this pattern has completed its goal, it is probable that there will be a technical correction in the next few hours and the metal could reach the support of 1,810. In case the uptrend continues and the price breaks above 1,821, it could accelerate the bullish move towards daily R_1 around 1,830. Conversely, in case XAU/USD continues trading below 1,821, we could expect a decline and the price may reach the 1,810 zone. A sharp break below this level could trigger a bearish signal and we could expect a fall towards the 200 EMA located at 1,792. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,821 with targets at 1,810. If gold consolidates above the 21 SMA, we can expect a technical bounce to resume buying with targets at 1,821 and 1,830. In case gold consolidates below 1,809, it will be a clear signal to sell with targets at 1,800 and 1,793 (200 EMA). The eagle indicator on the 1-hour chart is showing overbought levels, hence, an imminent correction could occur in the next few hours Relevance up to 04:00 2022-12-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305695
The GBP/USD Pair's Traders Still Use Every Opportunity To Buy

Reports On The UK's Public Sector Will Not Have Effect On The Cabel Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:16
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair The pair tested 1.2155 when the MACD line was already far from zero, so the upside potential was limited. Sometime later, another test took place, but this time the MACD line was declining from its highs, which was a good reason to buy. Surprisingly, it resulted in losses. Ahead are reports on the UK's public sector net borrowing and retail sales, however, they will not have much effect on the market as trading volume and volatility are likely to be low due to the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays. Most probably, GBP/USD will continue to trade in the channel it has been in since the end of last week. The US consumer confidence index and secondary market housing sales could weaken dollar and strengthen pound if the data are beyond expectations. If they are the same, the pair will resume trading sideways. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2187 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2270 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur if there are weak US reports. But remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Pound can also be bought at 1.2135, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2187 and 1.2270. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2135 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2055. Pressure will return if there is no bullish activity at the weekly highs. But take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2187, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2135 and 1.2055. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. Relevance up to 04:00 2022-12-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330366
The EUR/USD Prices Should Ideally Stay Below The 1.0926 High And Turn Lower

EUR/USD Pair: Germany Reports Can Increase Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.12.2022 08:12
Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair The pair tested 1.0582 when the MACD line was already far from zero, so the downside potential was limited. Sometime later, another test took place, but this time the MACD line was in the oversold area, which was a good reason to buy. This led to a price increase of about 30 pips. Selling at 1.0617 was not successful, resulting in losses. Although the decline in Germany's PPI was stronger than expected, it had little impact on euro because the weak US real estate market data led to a larger rise in the pair. Today, there is another report from Germany which could, to some extent, have a positive effect on euro. This is the leading consumer climate index for January. There is also the consumer confidence index in the US and secondary market housing sales that could weaken dollar and further strengthen euro, however, the former's figures should show a decline. If the data is the same as expected, the pair will continue to trade sideways. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0629 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0680. Growth could occur after strong reports in Germany. But remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0597, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0629 and 1.0680. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0597 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0545. Pressure will increase if Germany reports weak economic statistics. But take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0629, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0597 and 1.0545. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbough