InstaForex Analysis

InstaForex Analysis

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Shift in Central Bank Sentiment: Czech National Bank Hints at a 50bp Rate Cut, Impact on CZK Expected

EUR/USD Analysis: Uptrend Momentum Despite Year-End Corrections

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2024 14:24
EUR/USD In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.   All the price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.   On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.
All Eyes on US Inflation: Impact on Rate Expectations and Market Sentiment

Decoding GBP/USD Trends: COT Insights, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2024 14:21
COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  
Federal Reserve's Stance: Holding Rates Steady Amidst Market Expectations, with a Cautionary Tone on Overly Aggressive Rate Cut Pricings

GBP/USD Outlook: Navigating Chaotic Year-End Movements and Anticipating Potential Trends

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2024 14:15
GBP/USD exhibited quite chaotic movements during the last trading day of the previous week, month, and year. The price constantly changed direction, but at the end of the day, it stayed above the trendline that has suggested an uptrend for the past couple of months. Therefore, the pair could resume its upward movement as early as Tuesday.   However, at the same time, the euro has settled below the trendline, indicating a good chance for a downward move. Take note that the euro and the pound often (almost always) trade in the same direction. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if the pound also settles below the trendline today. This would open up possibilities for the pound to fall towards the Senkou Span B line. Of course, any downward movement can easily come to an end near this line since the dollar is still weak, and market participants are not eager to buy it. However, this week will bring plenty of important information from the U.S., and if it turns out to be positive, the dollar could significantly strengthen its positions, especially amid a three-month decline and oversold conditions. Therefore, we believe that the pair could potentially start a downward movement as early as tomorrow, which we could work with. The main condition is for the pair to breach the trendline. Speaking of trading signals, there were quite a few on Friday, but volatility was weak, and the movements were chaotic. On the last day of the year, hardly anyone wanted to enter the market, especially since last week's movements were absolutely unpredictable. Therefore, we believe that the year has ended and it's best to leave it in the past.  
EUR/USD Analysis: Assessing Potential for Prolonged Decline Amidst Volatility

EUR/USD Analysis: Assessing Potential for Prolonged Decline Amidst Volatility

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.12.2023 14:41
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its strong upward movement, reaching the Murray level "2/8" (1.0986) on Friday and bouncing off it. We expected the start of a downward correction (at least) on Thursday, but the outcomes of the ECB and Bank of England meetings influenced our plan.     The ECB and BoE took a rather hawkish stance on Thursday, triggering a new strengthening of the European currency and the pound. However, on Friday, with a weakened macroeconomic background and a complete absence of fundamentals, the pair showed volatility no less than on Wednesday and Thursday, but in the opposite direction. The correction we witnessed is not just regular; it can and should be the beginning of a prolonged decline. Of course, the pair can move in the opposite direction for quite some time, completely contradicting fundamentals, macroeconomics, and common sense. We have repeatedly listed all the reasons why the euro has no grounds to continue rising. Have we witnessed a two-month appreciation of the euro? This should be the end of it. This is if we talk about justified movement. If we talk about inertia, the euro can rise to $1.50 or even higher. Why is that impossible? The market can continue buying European currency for any reason, even if there is none because the market is made up of people. And people are not obliged to follow technicals, macroeconomics, or fundamentals. So, what we are warning about is that, in a more logical scenario, there is still a decline in the pair. This remains true despite Powell being less hawkish than desired and despite Lagarde's more hawkish stance than desired. Nothing changes because of that. Also, note that a "double top" pattern has formed on the euro at the moment, which is visible on almost any chart. Such a pattern is a sign of a trend reversal. Adding to this, there have been four entries into the overbought territory for the CCI indicator. What does this result in? It means that the euro has no other choice but to continue falling. Lane's speech is the most interesting event of the week in the EU. What can we expect next week? It can be said right away that all the most interesting things in December have already passed. The market is preparing for the Christmas and New Year holidays, so volatility may decrease again, although sharp emotional spikes and volatility are still possible in a "thin" market. In the EU, there will be a few important events next week. On Monday, the IFO Institute indices in Germany will be noteworthy. Business expectations, the current situation index, and the business climate index will be published. We do not consider these indices important, and the market's reaction to them may be extremely limited. On Tuesday, the EU will release the second, final assessment of inflation for November. We all understand that the second assessment rarely differs from the first, so traders are likely to have nothing to react to. On Wednesday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak, but what can he tell the market after Christine Lagarde spoke first last week, and on Friday, both Holzmann and de Guindos spoke? Nothing is interesting in the events calendar in the EU and Germany on Thursday and Friday. It turns out that there will be no really important macroeconomic or fundamental events this week. Of course, there will be American events and reports, but even there, things are quite scarce. Therefore, we expect a correction against the rise on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as low volatility. The average volatility of the Euro/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of December 17 is 97 points and is characterized as "high." Thus, we expect movement between levels 1.0797 and 1.0991 on Friday. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upward will indicate a possible resumption of the upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.0864 S2 - 1.0742 S3 - 1.0620 Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.0986 R2 - 1.1108 R3 - 1.1230 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has settled above the moving average line, but we do not believe that the rise can continue. The price perfectly reached the targets of 1.0974 and 1.0986, after which it began to fall. Buying the pair can be done on a bounce from the moving average, but we believe that a further decline is more likely. The new overbought condition of the CCI indicator indicates a much more probable decline. Short positions can be opened with a re-fixing below the moving average with a target of 1.0742. Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, the trend is strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the overbought area (below -250) or the oversold area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  
EUR/USD Trading Analysis: Strategies and Tips for Profitable Transactions

EUR/USD Trading Analysis: Strategies and Tips for Profitable Transactions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.12.2023 14:28
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The test of 1.0948 took place at a time when the MACD line moved downward from zero, provoking a sell signal. As a result, the pair fell in price by more than 30 pips. Meanwhile, purchases on the rebound from 1.0917 did not bring much profit, as the pressure on the pair persisted. Weak business activity data in the eurozone's service and manufacturing sectors put pressure on euro in the morning, leading to a price decline. This continued in the afternoon, as similar indicators from the US caused a surge in dollar demand, resulting in further sell-offs in EUR/USD. Today, interesting data from Germany will come out, namely the IFO's indices on business climate, present situation, and economic expectations. Disappointing numbers will keep euro under pressure. Statements from ECB Executive Board members Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane will also affect market sentiment.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0928 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0966. Growth will occur after strong data from the Eurozone and the firm position of the ECB. When buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0907, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0928 and 1.0966. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0907 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0876. Pressure will return if indicators from Germany come out weaker than expected. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0928, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0907 and 1.0876. What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
Worsening Crisis: Dutch Medicine Shortage Soars by 51% in 2023

EUR/USD Analysis: Trading Tips and Transaction Insights for Intraday Traders

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.12.2023 15:37
Analysis of transactions and trading tips on EUR/USD Further growth became limited because the test of 1.0786 occurred at a time when the MACD line rose sharply from zero. Sometime later, another test took place, and this time the MACD line moved away from the overbought area, provoking a sell signal. However, it led to losses as a reversal did not occur since the pair continued to rise. Strong data from Germany and the eurozone pushed euro higher even before the release of US statistics. However, the upcoming data may affect the market direction, as an increase in US consumer prices will lead to a rise in dollar demand, resulting in a decline in EUR/USD. But if the number disappoints, euro may continue its growth, leading to a further increase in the pair.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0812 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0865. Growth will occur only after very weak data from the US. That will convince the Fed to shift towards a more accommodative policy. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0783, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0812 and 1.0865. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0783 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0740. Pressure will increase in the case of a sharp rise in US consumer prices. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0812, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0783 and 1.0740.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    
All Eyes on US Inflation: Impact on Rate Expectations and Market Sentiment

Cautious Tone of Polish MPC Governor Press Conference: Rates Expected to Remain Unchanged Until March 2024

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.12.2023 13:49
Cautious tone of Polish MPC Governor press conference The NBP president's conference was short and cautious in its tone. The NBP may be heading in the direction of the conservative Czech National Bank. In our view, rates will remain unchanged until at least March 2024   Weak global economy, signs of recovery at home During his press conference, the NBP Governor Adam Glapinski assessed that the data received since the previous MPC meeting does not fundamentally change the assessment of the economic situation and its outlook. The external environment remains weak. The Eurozone is in stagnation and activity in Germany is declining. In Poland, economic activity remains subdued, but there are increasing signs of recovery. After declines in 1H23, 3Q23 saw GDP growth of 0.5% YoY. According to. Glapinski, the economy is beginning to improve. Global inflation is subsiding but still remains elevated. Major central banks, including the Fed and ECB, are keeping interest rates unchanged.   The NBP expects continued CPI decline, but at a slower pace President Glapinski reiterated that inflation in Poland is falling and is on a path to the NBP target, which it should reach within two years. Glapinski reiterated how much inflation has fallen (it is almost three times lower than at the February peak), adding that the core is falling as well and is around 5pp down from the peak. He noted that the decline in inflation has slowed and will also be slower in the coming quarters. In the Council's view, inflation will continue to fall due to reduced economic activity (negative output gap) and earlier monetary tightening, which cooled activity in the credit market. Also favourable for the inflation outlook is the strengthening of the PLN by about 20% against the US$ and about 10% vs. the €. Professor Glapinski was very neutral on the PLN exchange rate.   Uncertainty prompts MPC to adopt wait-and-see stance The Governor’s statements indicate that the MPC is adopting a wait-and-see stance, but definitely not a hawkish one. The MPC is waiting for decisions on electricity and gas prices, as well as VAT on food, the reinstatement of which could bump up inflation by about 0.9ppt. Therefore, the Council should take a closer look at inflation prospects on the occasion of the NBP's March projection, when the aforementioned uncertainty factors should be resolved. The Council's subsequent decisions will depend on incoming data.   Bottom line A communications revolution at the NBP took place. Yesterday's decision was made earlier than usual, i.e. at 2:29 CET  and the Governor’s conference lasted only 27 minutes. Could it be that the NBP is heading in the direction of the (conservative) Czech National Bank? During his speech, Glapiński declared willingness to cooperate with the new government and flagged cautious rate decisions in the future. In our view, a more disinflationary external environment, a stronger PLN and a more cautious NBP suggest that the risk that inflation will remain above target for a long time has moderated somewhat. Rates should remain unchanged until the end of 2024 as there is still no shortage of inflationary factors. For instance, we expect further fiscal expansion, increased wage dynamics (i.e. due to a 20% increase in the minimum wage in 2024), large inflows of EU funds and foreign direct investment. But rate cuts cannot be completely ruled out either. The space for interest rate changes could emerge in March, should global disinflation prove rapid and sustained and the zloty continue to gain. Our baseline scenario assumes that interest rates will remain unchanged, but the distribution of risks is skewed toward potentially lower inflation and the chances of earlier interest rate cuts than in 2025.
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Anticipation Grows: U.S. Labor Market Outlook for November's Key Reports

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.12.2023 15:16
The upcoming week promises to be much more interesting than the last two. The start of the month means that the United States will publish data on the labor market, unemployment, and wages. As always, these reports will come out on the first Friday of the month. So what can we say about them now, and what should we expect?     In order to understand the dynamics of payrolls, let's look at their values for the past two years. From January 2022 to January 2023, the average payroll value was 350,000. This is a very high value, surpassed only during the post-COVID economic recovery. From January 2023, the indicator sharply dropped, and throughout this year, its average value has been just over 200,000. Three out of the last five months closed with values below 200,000. The previous month saw 150,000. The forecast for November is 180,000. As we can see, in the long term, the U.S. labor market is contracting, so we might see an unsatisfactory value at the end of November. However, payrolls tend to "jump." If the previous month was weak, the next one could be strong. The unemployment rate is currently causing the least concern. Despite rising from 3.4% to 3.9% over the last six months, experts still consider this a "low" value. It may continue to increase as the trend is heading downwards. Still, the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates for several meetings in a row, which could slow down the rise in unemployment. Wages – the least important indicator. In annual terms, the growth rate of wages is decreasing, standing at 4.1% in October. The downtrend signals a slowdown in inflation, which is more of a bad thing than a good one for the U.S. currency. In the end, the first two reports are stronger, but they might present a pleasant surprise on Friday. Wages are a secondary report; the market will focus on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls. Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is still being formed. The pair has reached the targets around the 1.0463 mark, and the fact that the pair has yet to breach this level indicates that the market is ready to build a corrective wave. It seems that the market has completed the formation of wave 2 or b, so in the near future I expect an impulsive descending wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the instrument. I still recommend selling with targets below the low of wave 1 or a. But be cautious with short positions, as wave 2 or b may take a more extended form. A successful attempt to break the 1.0851 level could signal a decline in the instrument.
Shift in Central Bank Sentiment: Czech National Bank Hints at a 50bp Rate Cut, Impact on CZK Expected

Pound Resilient Against Euro's Inflation Woes, Eyes on ECB's Lagarde Speech

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.12.2023 15:12
Unlike the euro, the pound has returned to the levels it was at before the release of preliminary inflation data in the eurozone. This is somewhat logical due to the fact that the data mounted pressure on the euro, while there were no economic reports or news from the UK. Today, the situation is quite similar. The economic calendar is basically empty, and only European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech can affect the market. Primarily, it will affect the euro.   The impact on the pound will be significantly less noticeable. The question is, where will all this lead? Most likely, Lagarde will take note of the slowdown in inflation and maybe even suggest the possibility of a rate cut. Of course, she will not mention any specific timing. But it could be clear that she is already starting to make a hint in December. The euro will fall further, pulling the pound along with it. However, the decline in the British currency will be much less pronounced and possibly short-term.   Last Friday, the GBP/USD pair managed to recover relative to the recent corrective move. A s a result, the quote returned to the area of the resistance level of 1.2700. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, thus reflecting bullish sentiment among traders. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle. Outlook The EUR/USD kicks off the new week with a decrease in the volume of long positions, accompanied by a rebound from the level of 1.2700. In this case, hitting the 1.2700 mark indicates a prevailing bullish sentiment. In perspective, this could extend the upward cycle in case the pair tests last week's high. The bearish scenario will come into play in case the pair trades sideways between the levels of 1.2600/1.2700. Comprehensive indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short term due to the rebound. Meanwhile, the bullish sentiment remains in force in the intraday and medium-term periods.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/362129
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The Countdown to the Currency Market's 'Dead Season': What to Expect for EUR/USD in the Coming Weeks

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.12.2023 15:07
It's early December, which means traders have very little time left before the start of the "dead season." The currency market will be active for a few more weeks before entering the Christmas-New Year lethargy. The EUR/USD pair is no exception here. Typically, life in the FX market slows down after the December meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (on December 12-13 and 14, respectively). For some time, traders reflect on the outcomes of these meetings, but inevitably, "winter holidays" set in. The main feature of the upcoming week is the "silence" of the Fed officials. The so-called "blackout period" started on Saturday: for 10 days leading up to the Fed meeting, officials of the U.S. central bank generally do not speak publicly or grant interviews. Therefore, EUR/USD traders will be focused on economic reports. Let's take a look at the economic calendar and see what awaits us in the coming days.   Monday The first working day is traditionally quite empty for EUR/USD. During the European session, the Sentix investor confidence indicator will be published. This is a leading indicator as it measures investors' sentiment towards the eurozone economy. Since March 2022, the indicator has been in the negative territory, but in November, it showed positive dynamics, rising from -21.9 to -18.6. In December, experts expect a further improvement to -15.0. Also on Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak. She will participate in a conference that includes a Q&A session. The head of the ECB may comment on the latest eurozone inflation data, although the theme of the meeting, let's say, does not lend itself to such questions (the conference is organized by the French Academy of Ethics and Political Sciences). During the U.S. session, a report on factory orders in America will be published. The volume of total orders is expected to decrease by 2.7% in October, while core orders are expected to increase by only 0.3%. Tuesday On Tuesday, the final estimates of the PMI data for November will be published. According to forecasts, they will coincide with the initial reports (in this case, the market will likely ignore this data). Traders will focus on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which will be published during the U.S. session. This indicator has declined over the past two months, but according to most experts, it will rise to 52.5 points in November. However, if the index falls into the "red zone," the dollar will come under significant pressure. Let me remind you that the ISM Manufacturing Index published last week did not support the greenback. In November, it reached 46.7 points, against forecasts of an increase to 48.0 (the manufacturing index has been in contraction territory for the 13th consecutive month). In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on the level of job vacancies and labor turnover. However, considering that the market is anticipating the Non-Farm Payrolls data later in the week, they will likely overlook Tuesday's report.   Wednesday At the start of the European session, we will learn about the October volume of industrial orders in Germany. In annual terms, the indicator has been in the negative territory since July, and judging by forecasts, the situation is not expected to improve in October (forecast -5.6%). The main report of the day will be announced during the U.S. session, which is the non-farm employment in the United States from ADP. This report is considered to play the role of a kind of "harbinger" ahead of the release of official data—although quite often these indicators do not correlate. Nevertheless, the ADP report can trigger increased volatility among dollar pairs, especially if it comes out in the green/red zone. According to experts, 120,000 non-farm jobs were created in November. If the figure falls below the 100,000 mark, the greenback may come under pressure. Also, U.S. data on labor cost will be published (final estimate). This indicator, for the first time since the beginning of 2021, dropped into negative territory in the third quarter. According to forecasts, the final estimate will be revised downwards (from -0.8% to -0.9%). On the same day, ECB Executive Board member Joachim Nagel (head of the Bundesbank) will speak. Before the release of the latest data on eurozone inflation, he voiced rather hawkish theses, allowing for additional interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future. We do not know whether his position will change in light of recent events.   Thursday On this day, we will learn the final estimate of the eurozone Q3 GDP data. According to forecasts, the final result should match the second estimate (-0.1%). During the U.S. session, weekly data on initial jobless claims will be published. Since mid-October, this indicator has fluctuated in the range of 210,000 to 220,000 (except for one week when the count jumped to 233,000). According to forecasts, for the upcoming week, the indicator will come in at 220,000, i.e., at the upper limit of the "established" range. Furthermore, secondary economic reports will be released (wholesale inventories - final estimate, and consumer credit), but they usually do not have any significant impact on the market.   Friday On the last day of the trading week, key U.S. labor market data for the month of November will be published. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate in November will remain at the October level, i.e., at 3.9%. The number of non-farm payrolls is expected to increase by 185,000 (after a 150,000 increase in October) – meaning the figure will once again fall short of the 200,000 mark. In the private sector, the number of employed is expected to grow by 155,000 (after a 99,000 increase in October). And the average hourly wage level is expected to demonstrate a downtrend again – down to 4.0% YoY (in this case, it will be the lowest value of the indicator since August 2021). Obviously, such a result will not benefit the dollar, especially amid a decrease in CPI, producer price index, and the core PCE index.   On the bullish side, we have the dovish comments from some of the Fed officials (Waller, Goolsby), conflicting signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a decline in key inflation indicators. On the bearish side, we have the eurozone inflation data. The "red tint" of the latest report put an end to the discussion about the ECB rate hike in the coming months. The euro lost its fundamental trump card, but, as we know, the EUR/USD pair can successfully rise only due to the dollar's weakness. For instance, on Friday, the bears tried to break through to the 1.08 level but eventually failed. In my opinion, in the medium-term perspective (until the release of the NFP data), traders will exercise caution (both sellers and buyers), trading on "neutral territory," i.e., in the range of 1.0850 – 1.0930 (lower and middle Bollinger Bands lines on the 4H timeframe, respectively).
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Central Banks' Cautious Optimism: Fed Pleased with Progress, BoE Holds Steady After Autumn Statement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2023 15:31
Fed policymakers encouraged by recent data but won’t get complacent BoE interest rate expectations barely changed after UK Autumn Statement GBPUSD reverses near key resistance The two big events of the last 24 hours haven’t really packed the punch they occasionally can which perhaps explains why we aren’t seeing big moves today.   Fed determined to “proceed carefully” The FOMC minutes were arguably slightly on the dovish side, with the committee now seemingly of the view that no further hikes will be needed, with the language instead focusing on the need to proceed carefully. While we probably will still hear more of the higher for longer mantra from policymakers in public ahead of the December meeting, it’s clear now that the FOMC is pleased with the recent progress it’s seen and as long as it doesn’t go into reverse, rate hikes are a thing of the past. The question now is how long before the rate-cutting conversations begin. Markets are pricing in the first reduction around June but I can’t imagine policymakers will acknowledge that possibility for some time. The late pivot still looks highly likely as the Fed seeks to avoid underestimating inflation again. Markets still pricing in a possible UK rate cut in June The UK Autumn Statement wasn’t a big market-moving event today and perhaps in the current environment, that’s a good thing. Given the speculation in recent days around what measures Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would announce due to the additional fiscal headroom and proximity to the election, there have been some concerns that measures could run counter to the Bank of England’s goal of getting inflation back to 2%. The fact that the pound was fairly steady during today’s event and markets are still pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut by June suggests investors are not concerned about any inflationary implications on the back of today’s announcements.   GBPUSD pulls back near key resistance The pair had rallied in recent weeks towards 1.26 which only recently had been a major technical level. GBPUSD Daily Source – OANDA on Trading View   Not only does it represent the 50% retracement of the move from the July highs to the October lows, but it coincides with the neckline from the head and shoulders it broke below in early September. Yesterday it was looking a little short of momentum which could be a red flag near such a potentially important technical level. It’s now rotated lower which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s failed and heading lower, but it may suggest the market views it as an important level.  
GBP/USD 5M Analysis: Navigating a Minor Downward Correction and Volatility

GBP/USD 5M Analysis: Navigating a Minor Downward Correction and Volatility

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2023 15:17
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   GBP/USD also experienced a minor downward correction on Wednesday, while overall volatility reached 100 pips. This is already something to talk about. Unfortunately, during the European session, movements left much to be desired. In general, we witnessed a flat, and the pair only started to move normally during the U.S. session when three more or less significant reports were published in America. As we mentioned before, reports on durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment turned out to be weaker than expected. However, the third report on initial jobless claims was better than the market's expectations. In our opinion, one positive report could not outweigh two negatives, so we believe that the British pound fell on Wednesday due to the pair's overbought condition. Speaking of trading signals, the flat condition during the European session did not bring any profit. During the first half of the day, four signals were formed around the level of 1.2520, and they were all false signals because the pair, essentially, stood still. Therefore, when the fifth signal was formed around the level of 1.2520 during the U.S. session, it should not have been executed. And the best movement of the day began at this time. Traders could open 1-2 trades in the morning, incurring a small loss, and could then work out the rebound from the level of 1.2445, which allowed them to offset this loss. However, there was no substantial profit.
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Economic Insights and Trading Strategies: November 22-23 Analysis for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2023 15:04
Details of the Economic Calendar on November 22 Data on durable goods orders in the United States declined 5.4% in October, while the forecast predicted a drop of only 2.8%. The negative impact was slightly mitigated by data on jobless claims in the U.S., which reflected a decrease in their overall volume despite the forecast of an increase. Statistical details indicate that the volume of continuing claims fell from 1.862 million to 1.840 million, while the volume of initial claims rose from 233,000 to 209,000 Analysis of Trading Charts from November 22 During the corrective movement, the EUR/USD currency pair almost reached the level of 1.0850. This movement was characterized in the market as local, after which the quote returned above the level of 1.0900. The GBP/USD pair temporarily dropped below the level of 1.2450 during a technical pullback, but then returned to the area around the level of 1.2500. The current pullback fits into the structure of an upward cycle, and no shifts in trading interests are observed.   Economic Calendar on November 23 The publication of preliminary estimates for business activity indices in the United Kingdom and the United States is expected. Despite the importance of this event for the market, it is likely to go unnoticed. Today is a holiday in the United States due to Thanksgiving Day, which, in turn, will lead to a decrease in trading volumes. EUR/USD Trading Plan for November 23 Price stabilization above the level of 1.0900 may indicate a possible increase in the volume of long positions, paving the way to the level of 1.1000. On the other hand, holding the price below the level of 1.0850 may lead to an extension of the corrective cycle.     GBP/USD Trading Plan for November 23 Maintaining the price above the level of 1.2500 may subsequently indicate an increase in the volume of long positions. In this case, an update of the local high within the upward cycle is possible. As for the pullback scenario, it may be relevant if the price remains below the level of 1.2450.     What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.
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Turbulence in GBP/USD Pair: Chart Analysis and Market Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2023 15:00
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency on Wednesday, consolidating below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2477). However, this closure has not given bears anything, as today, the pair has returned to the zone between 1.2477 and 1.2513. If a rebound occurs from this zone, there is a high probability that the quote decline will resume toward the corrective level of 23.6% (1.2321). Closing above this zone will allow traders to expect a resumption of growth towards the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.2603).     The wave situation has become simpler and clearer. Waves still have a relatively large size, which adds inconvenience to trading. However, the trend is currently "bullish," and a breakthrough of the last low at 1.2372 is required to complete it. In this case, there will be signs of the pair transitioning to a "bearish" trend, which is more logical after a fairly strong rise. However, at the moment, the "bullish" trend persists, and bears cannot firmly establish themselves on the hard-won positions.   Late Tuesday evening in the US, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released. The report stated that the regulator would continue to make decisions based on incoming information. FOMC members almost unanimously agreed that tightening monetary policy should only continue in the case of unsatisfactory inflation dynamics. Not all policymakers are confident in a sufficiently restrictive policy to return inflation to 2%. None of the FOMC members voted for an increase or decrease in the interest rate. Thus, the Fed has again "left the door open" but has not provided any signals about future decisions. Inflation in the US decreased in October, which may further weaken the "hawkish" sentiment.   On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound and a new consolidation above the level of 1.2450. Thus, the growth process can be continued toward the next level at 1.2620. The upward trend corridor characterizes traders' sentiment as "bullish," and the "bullish" divergence on the CCI indicator warns of a possible continuation of the rise. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:   The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category for the last report is slightly less "bearish." The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 6180 units, and the number of short contracts decreased by 10299 units. The overall sentiment of major players has long changed to "bearish," between the number of long and short contracts, the gap is increasing, but now in the opposite direction: 57 thousand versus 74 thousand. There are still excellent prospects for the pound to continue falling. I do not expect a strong rise in the pound soon. Over time, bulls will continue to get rid of buy positions, as is the case with the European currency. The growth we have seen in recent weeks is corrective. News Calendar for the US and the UK: UK - Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (09:30 UTC). UK - Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (09:30 UTC). On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only two fairly interesting entries. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be weak. Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader Tips: I recommend selling the pound this week on a rebound from the zone of 1.2477– 1.2513 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2321. Or on a rebound from the level of 1.2603. I advised buying the pair on a consolidation above the level of 1.2513 with targets of 1.2603 and 1.2620, but such deals look excessively risky to me. They should be closed at the first sign of doubt.
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EUR/USD Analysis: Industrial Output Decline and Dollar Rebound Amidst Economic Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2023 14:26
Industrial output in the eurozone fell more than expected, as total production dropped 1.1% on month in September, while forecasts were for output to be down 0.8% on month. However, this report did not lead to any noticeable movements in the foreign exchange market. Investors were clearly waiting for US data, the forecasts for which also carried a negative tone, as they intended to extend the dollar selloff. However, the annual trend in retail sales slowed from 4.1% y/y in September to 2.5% y/y in October, whereas a slowdown from 3.8% to 2.1% was expected. So not only were the actual reports better, but the previous results were also revised for the better. Afterwards, a full-fledged rebound started, and the dollar was able to improve its position. The only thing we can highlight for today is the initial jobless claims in the United States. The total number is expected to increase by 8,000. The changes are extremely insignificant and are unlikely to have a serious impact on the current situation. Considering that the rebound is not yet complete, we expect the dollar to gradually rise further.   The EUR/USD pair has entered a retracement phase due to the high overbought levels. The level of 1.0900 acts as resistance, and we observed a decline in the volume of long positions near this area. On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 70 line. This technical signal indicates that the euro's overbought conditions have started to ease, given that a retracement phase is being formed. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards. The signal corresponds to the upward cycle, ignoring the ongoing retracement. Outlook The ongoing retracement persists, which is why traders are considering a scenario with the pair moving towards the level of 1.0800. The succeeding movement will depend on the price's behavior near this level—whether sellers can keep the quotes below it or if the level will act as support. The complex indicator analysis points to the retracement phase in the short-term and intraday periods.  
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD Analysis: Navigating Key Zones and Potential Trends

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2023 14:14
EUR/USD   Higher Timeframes The encounter with the zone 1.0862–1.0868, which merged several strong resistances, did not go unnoticed. As a result, yesterday, we observed a slowdown and some bearish activity. The upcoming days will determine the outcome of the encounter. Bearish activity and a decline will draw the market's attention to the supports accumulated at 1.0756-1.0766 (weekly and daily levels), while overcoming 1.0862-68 will pave the way to the final resistance of the weekly death cross (1.0960) and the daily target for breaking through the Ichimoku cloud (1.1004-1.1065).     H4 - H1 On the lower timeframes, there is a corrective decline, but bulls maintain a general advantage. At the moment, the reference points for the resumption of the ascent could be 1.0855-1.0879-1.0910-1.0934 (classic pivot points). Strengthening bearish sentiments today may occur through breaking the supports at 1.0824-1.0800-1.0769 (classic pivot points). To change the current advantage to the bears' side, it is necessary to break and reverse the moving average—the weekly long-term trend, which, in the current situation, is at 1.0745.   Higher Timeframes As of yesterday, the pound can boast more impressive results than the euro. The market failed to overcome the accumulation of strong resistances, such as the weekly Fibonacci Kijun (1.2458), the monthly short-term trend (1.2471), and the monthly Fibonacci Kijun (1.2505). If bears continue to recover their positions, there is a broad support zone on this part of the market, consisting of levels from various timeframes and located at 1.2346-1.2325-1.2287-1.2248-1.2231.     H4 - H1 Bulls failed to update the previous day's high and continue the ascent, while the opponent, developing the decline, has now consolidated below the central pivot point of the day (1.2437). The continuation of the descent now lies through testing and breaking the supports at 1.2376-1.2341 (classic pivot points). A shift in the main advantage and the current sentiment is possible after testing, overcoming, and reversing the weekly long-term trend (1.2315). *  
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Consolidation and Potential Upside Momentum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2023 13:52
EUR/USD: Yesterday, the euro experienced a slight correction and took a breather after rallying on Tuesday. The price did not drop below the support level of 1.0834, and this morning it is trying to rise above the price channel line (1.0850). If it consolidates above it, the next target will be 1.0937/46 with an intermediate level of 1.0905. One notable aspect of the substantial rally on Tuesday is that it occurred on average volumes. This implies that the stop-losses of major sellers were not closed; they are even higher. Two possible scenarios could unfold: a deep correction might occur either from the accumulation of these stop-losses or after their closure, leading to another powerful upward movement. In any case, we expect the price to reach the target level of 1.1096. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned downward from the upper band of its own ascending channel. Here, too, there could be two scenarios: the line is working on the lower band of the channel, which can affect the price in expanding the consolidation, potentially down to the Fibonacci retracement lower ray (1.0777), or the line from the current levels turns upwards with a retest of the upper band of the channel, or it breaks above into the overbought territory (likely testing 1.0937/46).   On the 4-hour chart, it appears as if the upward movement will persist since there were only candle shadows in the support range. The Marlin oscillator has already fallen low enough, releasing tension; it is ready to rise further. We will find out whether the price consolidates above resistance or below support.
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Tactical Analysis and Trading Strategies for GBP/USD: Navigating Trends and Key Entry Points

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2023 13:49
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2449 took place when the MACD line moved downward from zero, prompting a signal to sell. This resulted in a price decrease of over 50 pips. The sharp decline in UK inflation led to a sell-off in pound in the morning. Then, it intensified after the release of strong retail sales data from the US. The empty macroeconomic calendar today will give pound the chance of continuing its decline in line with yesterday's trend. Meanwhile, the speech of Bank of England MPC member Swati Dhingra will not have much impact to the market.     For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2402 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2449 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur as long as the daily low remains protected. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2385, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2402 and 1.2449. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2385 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2337. Pressure will continue until trading goes below today's high. When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2402,, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2385 and 1.2337.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
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EUR/USD Analysis: Weekly Outlook and Intraday Levels

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2023 11:39
EUR/USD   Higher Timeframes The past day has been bearish, but significant changes have not occurred as the pair continues to remain within the range of the previous days, forming consolidation. Today, we close the working week, and the result is of interest. If the bears manage to create a clear bearish sentiment in the weekly candlestick pattern, the euro's tasks will be aimed at breaking through the level of 1.0614 (weekly short-term trend + monthly medium-term trend) and eliminating the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0652 – 1.0638 – 1.0620 – 1.0588). For the bulls, the current situation still faces weekly resistances at 1.0733 – 1.0766.     H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the bears managed to break below key levels towards the end of yesterday. Currently, this position is maintained, and strengthening their positions will be possible through the continuation of the current decline and gaining support from classic pivot points (1.0644 – 1.0620 – 1.0579). The key levels today are holding defense around 1.0685 – 1.0701 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above and a reversal of the movement could bring activity back into the market, favoring the bulls. Additional intraday bullish targets include 1.0709 – 1.0750 – 1.0774 (resistances of classic pivot points).     Higher Timeframes Bears successfully advanced yesterday and are close to closing the current week with a bearish candlestick combination, forming a rebound when testing important weekly levels (1.2268 – 1.2292). A weekly rebound and the elimination of the daily Ichimoku cross (1.2205) will draw attention to breaking the support of the monthly medium-term trend (1.2093) and the recovery of the weekly downward trend (1.2036).       H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, the bulls lost key levels yesterday, shifting the main advantage to the bears. To develop the decline, intraday targets today may be the supports of classic pivot points (1.2184 – 1.2151 – 1.2089). The key levels currently act as resistances and are located at 1.2246 (central pivot point of the day) and 1.2301 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above could change the current balance of power. The next targets for the recovery of bullish positions within the day will be 1.2341 and 1.2374 (resistances of classic pivot points).
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Thursday's GBP/USD Analysis and Friday's Trading Tips

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2023 11:34
Analyzing Thursday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart   On Thursday, GBP/USD showed a more interesting, and most importantly, a downward movement. While the euro remained mostly stagnant throughout the day, the pound resumed its decline, as we have warned before. We expect the dollar to rise and the pound to fall, as the bullish correction that has been developing in the last month may have finally come to an end. Therefore, in the near future, we expect the pair to fall to the previous week's lows, located near the level of 1.2107. As for the fundamentals and macroeconomics, the only interesting event was Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's speech. He said that the key rate may rise again if the situation requires it. He also noted that the inflation target of 2% remains unchanged, but the central bank is currently taking a more cautious position, trying to find a balance between overly tight and overly loose monetary policy. His words can be interpreted as "moderately hawkish," which could contribute to the US dollar's strength in the second half of the day.   On the 5-minute chart, many trading signals were generated. The pair showed volatility of almost 100 pips, but throughout the day, it repeatedly changed direction, working through all available levels from all sides. Therefore, although we saw a good amount of movement, it is not necessarily good for traders. The first two signals brought profit to beginners, but just a small profit of about 20 pips. Then there were two false signals near the level of 1.2270, but you couldn't even set a stop loss to breakeven. All subsequent signals, considering the nature of the pair's movement, should not have been executed. Trading tips on Friday: On the 30-minute chart, we had been anticipating a proper upward correction cycle for the GBP/USD pair for quite some time, and it has finally materialized. However, at this point, it seems that this correction is already coming to an end. If that's the case, we expect the downtrend to resume. The pair has breached the 1.2270 mark, so the downtrend will likely follow. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.1992-1.2010, 1.2052, 1.2089-1.2107, 1.2164-1.2179, 1.2235, 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2394, 1.2457-1.2488, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Friday, a couple of reports will be released in the UK. We can highlight the quarterly GDP and industrial production in September. It's not certain that the market will find these reports interesting, but it's still something. In the US, we can look to the secondary consumer sentiment index. Basic trading rules: 1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal. 2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded. 3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed. 5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel. 6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction. The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source. Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend. Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.      
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Friday's Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis: GBP/USD and More

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2023 10:27
Analysis of macroeconomic reports:   There are several macroeconomic events on Friday, with the most important ones in the United Kingdom. In the UK, reports on quarterly GDP and industrial production for September will be published. The industrial production report is not crucial, but in the case of a significant deviation of the actual value from the forecast, market reaction is possible. The same goes for the GDP report. If its value matches the forecast, no reaction is expected, despite the importance of this report. In the United States, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will be published, which is also a secondary report. Analysis of fundamental events: From Friday's fundamental events, we can highlight the speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve's monetary committee, Logan and Bostic. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already spoken twice this week. If his first speech did not touch on monetary policy, in the second one, he noted that the key rate may rise again if the situation requires it. Therefore, we probably won't hear anything more important than these statements.     General conclusion: On Friday, there will be interesting events, but in general, they may not lead to significant price changes. On Thursday, Powell's speech supported the dollar, but the US currency should continue to rise in the coming weeks even without the help of the Fed chairman. On Friday, only the British reports have a real chance of influencing the movement of the GBP/USD pair. And the pound may pull the euro along with it. But this is only during the European session.   Basic rules of a trading system: 1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal. 2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded. 3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed. 5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel. 6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction. The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source. Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend. Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
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GBP/USD 5M Analysis: Technical Trends and COT Report Insights

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.11.2023 13:51
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   The GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Tuesday, primarily based on technical factors, as this was in the absence of influential economic releases. The only noteworthy event was the moderately hawkish statement by Neel Kashkari, which we have already discussed. Nonetheless, this is just the opinion of one of the eighteen members of the Federal Reserve's monetary committee. At the CME, its own FedWatch tool showed a low probability of a hike for the December meeting. Therefore, the market currently does not expect a new rate hike in the US. However, this information should not be crucial for the US dollar. It should resume its trend and, consequently, continue to strengthen. It is almost guaranteed that the pair will return to the level of 1.2109, which is roughly 200 pips down from its current position. The decline may be gradual. There were only two trading signals for the pound yesterday. The price bounced off the 1.2269 level twice, but in both cases, it managed to rise by a maximum of 20 pips. This was enough to place a stop-loss to breakeven for both long positions. Therefore, both trades were certainly not losing ones. You could manually close the second trade in profit.   COT report:   COT reports on the British pound also align perfectly with what's happening in the market. According to the latest report on GBP/USD, the non-commercial group closed 3,400 long positions and 1,700 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 1,700 contracts in a week. The net position indicator has been steadily rising over the past 12 months, but it has been firmly decreasing over the past three months. The British pound is also losing ground. We have been waiting for many months for the sterling to reverse downwards. Perhaps GBP/USD is at the very beginning of a prolonged downtrend. At least in the coming months, we do not see significant prospects for the pound to rise, and even if we're currently witnessing a corrective phase, it could persist for several months.   The British pound has surged by a total of 2,800 pips from its absolute lows reached last year, which is an enormous increase. Without a strong downward correction, a further upward trend would be entirely illogical (if it is even planned). We don't rule out an extension of an uptrend. We simply believe that a substantial correction is needed first, and then we should assess the factors supporting the US dollar and the British pound. A correction to the level of 1.1844 would be enough to establish a fair balance between the two currencies. The non-commercial group currently holds a total of 63,700 longs and 85,800 shorts. The bears have been holding the upper hand in recent months, and we believe this trend will continue in the near future.  
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Unlocking Opportunities: In-Depth Analysis and Trading Tips for EUR/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.11.2023 13:49
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0681 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. This happened even though several Fed representatives hinted at the possible continuation of the rate hike cycle and the lesser chance of a reduction in borrowing costs. Today, CPI data for Germany and retail sales report for the eurozone will come out, but it will not have much impact on the market. Instead, the speech of ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane will generate interest, as well as the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0700 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0730. Growth will occur after protecting the support at 1.0680. However, when buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0681, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0700 and 1.0730. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0681 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0656. Pressure will increase after an unsuccessful attempt to hit the daily high, as well as weak data from the eurozone. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0700, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0681 and 1.0656.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
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EUR/USD Analysis: Navigating Market Pressures and Consolidation Ranges

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.11.2023 13:46
EUR/USD On Tuesday, the euro continued to face pressure from Monday, even slightly more so due to the decline in commodity prices (crude oil down 2.1%) and as U.S. Treasury yields fell. German industrial production dropped in September by 1.4% compared with the previous month (-3.86% YoY), which fueled concerns about a European recession. Now we are waiting to see if other news will support the euro's upward movement. However, we don't expect to receive any news today or tomorrow, unless Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or John Williams suggests an the end to the rate hike cycle. On the other hand, a certain event that could exert pressure on the dollar would be the so-called U.S. "government shutdown", as the emergency 45-day funding measure is set to end on November 16. Congressional leaders struggle to reach an agreement over the 2024 budget year limit. Take note that market participants may already be preparing for this event.   On the daily chart, the lower shadow carefully tested the support of the MACD line. Now, the euro has established a consolidation range between yesterday's low and the Fibonacci level at 1.0665-1.0750. Settling below 1.0665 could lead to a decline towards the price channel line around the psychological level of 1.0500, while a move above 1.0750 opens the target range of 1.0834/57. The uptrend remains intact. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish momentum remains intact. After retreating, the price is now staying above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator may form a bullish reversal from the neutral zero line.  
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Navigating GBP/USD: Transaction Analysis and Trading Tips Amidst Economic Pressures

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.11.2023 13:41
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.2289 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. The report on the UK house price index did not make an impression on traders, and pressure on the pair returned after the speeches made by Fed representatives. But today, pound may have a chance to compensate for losses, after the speech of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He should be full of optimism, hinting at the imminent winding down of aggressive policies and interest rate cuts. Pound will continue to fall if this does not happen.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2285 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2327 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur after Andrew Bailey's statements or after protecting the support at 1.2260. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2266, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2285 and 1.2327. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2266 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2229. Pressure will continue as soon as Bailey comments on the poor state of the UK economy and high inflation. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2285, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2266 and 1.2229.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market  
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EUR/USD Stagnant Despite ECB Meeting and US GDP: Analyzing Market Perceptions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:23
The currency pair EUR/USD showed absolutely no movements on Thursday—no reaction to important events. In our previous articles, we've already mentioned that people can have different opinions about what happened yesterday. On one hand, it's not uncommon to see meetings where no significant decisions are made, but the pair starts moving in different directions afterward. On the other hand, there were no significant decisions made yesterday, and Christine Lagarde's rhetoric was maximally bland and uninteresting. Therefore, the market had nothing to react to, and it all seems logical. However, this week, there is very little logic in the pair's movements. On Monday and Tuesday, there were movements of such strength that it feels like the ECB meeting actually happened on Monday, not on Thursday. In other words, the market considered business activity indices much more important than the ECB meeting and the US GDP report. The technical picture over the past day, of course, has not changed. How could it change when there were essentially no movements? The price is once again below the moving average, but that doesn't stop it from resuming its rise today and forming a third corrective wave. The fact that we didn't see further depreciation of the pair on strong statistics from across the ocean could indicate the market's mood for a new corrective wave. However, we want to note that the current area where the pair is located is quite dangerous for traders. Both buy and sell signals are forming in this area. The pair seems like it should be falling, but it may correct a bit more. On the 24-hour time frame, the price is "dancing" around the important level of 1.0609 and the critical line. On the 4-hour time frame, it crosses the moving average about once a day. All of this just confuses traders. The ECB didn't evoke any emotions in the market. In principle, there was no intrigue regarding the ECB meeting.     Market participants were 100% sure that the key rate wouldn't change, and therefore, the other two rates wouldn't change either. Expecting strong statements from Christine Lagarde, who spoke twice this week, was very difficult. What could Lagarde say? "We are tightening monetary policy again!"? Or "We are lowering the key rate!"? Neither the first nor the second option had anything to do with reality. In the end, Ms. Lagarde stated that "rate cuts were not discussed at the meeting," and in the future, rate decisions will be made based on incoming information. The ECB will continue to closely monitor GDP, inflation, and core inflation indicators and regularly assess the impact of current monetary measures on the economy. In essence, we didn't hear anything new. The market already knew all of Lagarde's statements by heart. And the statement about not considering rate cuts sounds like mockery. How can there be any easing when inflation exceeds the target level by more than double? As for the market's reaction, it could have provided insights into how the market perceives the received information. However, the reaction was practically non-existent, so we can't draw any conclusions here either. We believe that the strengthening of the dollar will continue in the medium term, especially after yesterday's strong package of statistics from across the ocean. We believe that the Federal Reserve has a much better chance and real opportunities to raise rates one or two more times than the ECB. Perhaps the market is not yet ready to resume selling the pair, and it may require one or even two more correction cycles, but we don't even consider the scenario of a new upward trend at the moment. We expect the dollar to rise to 1.0200. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/358692
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ECB Maintains Status Quo: Lagarde's Rhetoric and Euro Dynamics Unveiled

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:21
"Now is not the time to talk about future prospects". That was the tone of the European Central Bank's October meeting, the results of which were revealed on Thursday. Overall, the central bank made the expected decision to maintain interest rates as they were. The likelihood of this scenario being realized was 100%, so the market paid little attention to the formal outcomes of the meeting. The EUR/USD pair remained in a standstill, awaiting ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference. Lagarde slightly stirred the pair with her rhetoric, and the dynamics initially favored the euro. The bulls pushed toward the boundaries of the 1.6-figure but hesitated to attack that target due to weak fundamental arguments. It's worth noting that in the lead-up to the October meeting, most experts were confident that the ECB would keep not only monetary policy unchanged but also the main formulations of the accompanying statement unchanged. According to their forecasts, Lagarde was also expected to reiterate the main theses outlined after the previous meeting - that the ECB was unlikely to raise rates in the foreseeable future but would commit to keeping them at the current level for a long time. In addition, some experts considered the possibility that the Bank would reduce interest rates in the first half of 2024, given the drop in overall and core inflation in the eurozone and the weak 0.1% growth in the European economy in the second quarter.   However, the ECB did not present any hawkish or dovish surprises. Admittedly, Lagarde did tweak the tone of her rhetoric, offering some support for the euro, but these remarks failed to impress the market. In general, the ECB head merely dispelled rumors that the central bank is ready to discuss the timing and conditions of monetary policy easing. According to her, the issue of lowering interest rates was not discussed at the recent meeting as "it would be premature." She also said that the ECB had not discussed the possibility of changing the terms of the PEPP asset purchase program, which had been rumored in October. Lagarde emphasized that the central bank would reinvest all the cash it receives from maturing bonds it holds under the program, at least until the end of 2024. Regarding the fate of interest rates, on one hand, the ECB head reiterated that "rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to our target." But on the other hand, she listed inflationary risks. Among these are the recent sharp rise in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the possible increase in food prices, and active wage growth in eurozone countries. Lagarde emphasized that internal price pressures remain strong, and "the risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside." Such rhetoric does not indicate that the ECB is ready to return to raising rates in the near future. But at the same time, Lagarde effectively refuted rumors that the central bank is considering easing the terms of its APP in the near term. Her statement that "now is not the time for forward guidance" can be interpreted in different ways, either in the context of potential future policy tightening or easing. However, if we compile the main theses voiced by Lagarde, we can conclude that the ECB has primarily distanced itself from the scenario of lowering interest rates in the near future. Thus, the ECB, while not providing substantial support to the euro, also did not exert significant pressure on the single currency. The ECB's meeting did not meet the doves' expectations (as there were no hawkish expectations). We can assume that the market will shift its focus to American events starting on Friday. The main focus will be on the PCE index. The U.S. economy expanded at a robust 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to a mere 2.1% growth in the U.S. economy in the second quarter. If the primary personal consumption expenditure index reaches the forecast level (not to mention the "red zone"), the dollar could come under significant pressure as risk appetite may increase in the market. Signs of slowing inflation amid strong GDP growth are likely to contribute to a decline in Treasury yields, and consequently, the greenback
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EUR/USD Trading Analysis: Strategies for Long and Short Positions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:19
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further growth became limited because the test of 1.0554 coincided with the sharp upward move of the MACD line from zero. After a short period of time, another test took place, but the MACD line went in the overbought area, leading to a signal to sell. This resulted in a price decrease of over 30 pips. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, announcing a softer approach to future monetary policy based on data that will be received in the future. However, they also did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike, similar to the Federal Reserve. Strong US GDP data for the third quarter did not particularly help dollar. And most likely, today, the empty macroeconomic calendar will give euro bulls the chance for an upward correction.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0582 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0604. Growth will occur as part of an upward correction, following the update of the weekly low. However, when buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rising from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0562, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0582 and 1.0604. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0562 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0531. Pressure will increase in the event of a breakdown of the important support level of 1.0562, which will lead to a continuation of yesterday's bearish trend. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0582, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0562 and 1.0531.  
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Bulls Eye Key Resistance Levels in Forex Market, Awaiting Confirmation for Further Upside Momentum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:17
Higher Timeframes Yesterday, the bears couldn't hold their ground. As a result, by the end of the working week, the market arrived with a looming lower shadow, the size of which could influence the overall sentiment and market possibilities. It is worth noting that the daily cross has changed. If the bulls can now take control of the range 1.0601 - 1.0610 (daily short-term trend + weekly cloud boundary), they can use it as a basis for a new attempt to rise. Failures and market uncertainty at this moment may lead to the formation of consolidation.   On the lower timeframes, the decline has stopped. At this moment, the bulls have already managed to reclaim the central pivot point of the day (1.0552). Their next target is the weekly long-term trend (1.0593). Consolidation above and a reversal of the moving average will allow for a change in the current balance of power towards further bullish sentiment. Additional intraday targets can be marked at the resistances (1.0580 - 1.0599 - 1.0627) and supports (1.0533 - 1.0505 - 1.0486) of the classic pivot points. Higher Timeframes Over the past day, there have been no significant changes. The monthly medium-term trend (1.2135) continues to hold the market in its attraction zone, and the tasks facing market participants remain relevant. In the current situation, bulls need to eliminate the daily Ichimoku cross (1.2186 - 1.2221) and update the highs of the current correction (1.2287 - 1.2336). For bears, it is important to exit the zone of weekly and daily correction (1.2036) and enter the weekly cloud (1.2027).    
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The European Central Bank Holds Key Interest Rates Unchanged: Analyzing the Market's Surprising 25-Pip Reaction

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:14
The European Central Bank kept all three key interest rates unchanged. The market's reaction was altogether surprising, strange, expected, and logical. The euro initially rose by 25 pips but then it also lost the same amount in three hours. So the market's response to this significant event can be characterized by a 25-pip move. However, while the event itself was important, its results were not. As mentioned, the rates remained the same, and ECB President Christine Lagarde was quite neutral during the press conference. Here's what she talked about.   First, Lagarde said that she believed the current rates are at levels that will make a substantial contribution to returning inflation to the Bank's 2% target. Rates will need to be kept at their current levels for a sufficiently long duration, but eventually, the ECB will achieve its goal. Decisions on rates will be made based on incoming economic and financial data, and the dynamics of underlying inflation. The APP and PEPP programs (monetary stimulus programs) continue to reduce the ECB's balance sheet at a moderate pace, following the general plan. Lagarde also said that rate decisions will be made from meeting to meeting. This suggests that Lagarde keeps the door open for further rate hikes but the chances of seeing new tightening in the near future are extremely slim. I believe that the results of the meeting turned out to be neutral. I previously mentioned that there were no other options besides keeping rates at their current levels. However, I allowed for the possibility that Lagarde might hint at future rate hikes "if necessary" or, conversely, announce when policy easing would begin. Neither of these scenarios was mentioned. Based on this, I conclude that the market's 25-pip reaction was quite in line with the meeting's outcomes. However, the trading instrument could and should have shown much greater movement, given that two important reports were published in the United States, which turned out to be significantly stronger than market expectations. However, it seems that even these reports were ignored. Thus, the market's reaction to the ECB meeting was logical but if we look at the bigger picture, it actually wasn't. We expected the lack of market activity with such results, but it was quite strange to see such an outcome in conjunction with the GDP and durable goods orders reports in the United States. Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is still being formed. The pair has reached the targets around the 1.0463 level, and the fact that the pair has yet to break through this level indicates that the market is ready to build a corrective wave. A successful attempt to break through the 1.0637 level, which corresponds to the 100.0% Fibonacci level, would indicate the market's readiness to complete the formation of Wave 2 or Wave b. That's why I recommended selling. But we have to be cautious, as Wave 2 or Wave b may take on a more complex form.  
EUR/USD Trading Analysis: Strategies and Tips for Profitable Transactions

Tactical Insights: GBP/USD Trading Strategies and Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2023 15:43
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD Further growth became limited because the first test of 1.2176 coincided with the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. As for its second test, it occurred when the MACD line went into the overbought area, providing a signal to sell. This resulted in a price decrease of over 20 pips. The remarks of Bank of England member Huw Pill did not help pound rally, unlike the soft statements from Fed representatives, which led to an upward movement in the pair towards the end of the US session. However, the price remained within the sideways channel, so sellers have a good chance of returning the market to its lower boundary today. Waiting for data on the UK's unemployment rate and speech by Bank of England member Swati Dhingra.     For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2190 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2229 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur after the breakdown of the upper boundary of the sideways channel. However, when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2157, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2190 and 1.2229. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2157 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2113. Pressure will increase since the chances of a decline seem much higher than those of a breakout. However, when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2190, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2157 and 1.2113.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market     Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
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Tepid Start for Euro and Pound as Corrective Waves Unfold: Market Analysis and Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2023 15:39
Both instruments were relatively muted on Monday. The euro and the pound started a new upward movement, presumably as part of the third wave within wave 2 or b. I previously mentioned that wave 2 or b should be a three-wave structure because the first wave was extended for both instruments. Therefore, the price increase at the beginning of the week was expected. If it hadn't happened today, it would have occurred tomorrow. Moreover, there was no significant news. Therefore, I conclude that positive news is not necessary for building the corrective waves for the euro and the pound.     Over the weekend, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. As I previously mentioned, Lagarde did not say anything that was particularly important. The members of the ECB Governing Council have not been providing any interesting or critical information for the markets. This is easily explained by the fact that the ECB has generally completed the process of tightening monetary policy and does not intend to ease it in the near future. Consequently, the market does not expect any changes either, so what can de Guindos, Lagarde, and others report in such a case? Lagarde mentioned wages and inflation with no significant consequences, so to speak. She noted that the pace of wage growth remains too high, and core inflation is far from the target. At the same time, the EU labor market shows no signs of weakening, but the European economy may slow down even further as the global economy could weaken due to new geopolitical conflicts. Economic growth could be stronger if consumer confidence rises due to a stronger labor market, income growth, and reduced uncertainty. Regarding monetary policy, the ECB plans to maintain a cautious approach. Based on everything, it will be very difficult for the euro to find support until a downtrend is fully developed. I believe that the news background will not affect the framework of the corrective wave 2 or b. It won't impact the next, third wave either.     Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that a bearish wave is currently being built. The targets around the 1.0463 level have been achieved, and the fact that the market has yet to breach this mark indicates that it is prepared to build a corrective wave. In my recent reviews, I warned you that it would be wise to consider closing short positions because there is currently a high probability of constructing an upward wave. The unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0637 level, corresponding to the 100.0% Fibonacci, indicates the market's readiness to resume the decline, but I believe that wave 2 or b will be a three-wave structure. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline within a new downtrend segment. The most that the British pound can hope for in the near future is the construction of wave 2 or b. However, as we can see, even with the corrective wave, significant challenges are currently emerging. I wouldn't recommend opening new shorts at this time, but I also don't advise buying because the corrective wave may turn out to be relatively weak.  
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Market Insights: CFTC Report Reveals Stable Futures Market, Dollar Maintains Strong Positioning

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2023 15:34
According to the latest CFTC report, the past week was relatively calm in the futures market. One notable change was the value of the net short yen by position, which corrected by 1.2 billion, while changes in other currencies were minimal. The US dollar's net positioning, after sharply rising the previous week, saw a 0.3 billion correction, bringing it to 8.5 billion, indicating a firm speculative positioning for the dollar. Other factors that supported the greenback are the drop in the number of long positions in oil and especially gold, with a weekly change of -4.8 billion, implying further declines. This often signifies growing bullish sentiment for the US dollar.   The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 63.0 in October, the reading was below the forecast of 67.2, reaching the lowest level since May. This marks the third consecutive decline and can be largely attributed to rising gas prices and a decline in the stock market. However, consumer spending remains at a good level despite weaker sentiment in recent months. China's consumer price index remained flat from a year earlier in September, while the Producer Price Index fell by 2.5% as concerns linger about weak demand. Both figures were slightly below consensus estimates. This week's data on industrial production, retail sales, and third-quarter GDP will provide a clearer picture of the impact of the government's additional stimulus measures. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has quickly escalated into the bloodiest clash in the past 50 years from both sides. As both Israel and Iran are minor natural gas exporters, European natural gas prices rose by about 40% last week. Oil markets remain calmer due to reduced demand and excess production capacity. US consumer price inflation for September shows headline prices rose 0.4% month-on-month (consensus 0.3%), and the core index slowed down from 4.3% year-on-year to 4.1% year-on-year, which is a positive sign for the Federal Reserve. There is growing confidence that the Fed's rate hike cycle is coming to an end.   The British pound corrected slightly above the resistance level at 1.2305 and then resumed its decline. It is assumed that the local peak has been formed, and the sell-off will continue, with the nearest target being 1.2033 (the low from October 4). In case it breaks below this level, selling pressure may intensify, with the long-term target being 1.1740/90.  
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EUR/USD Analysis: Surpassing Expectations in US Labor Data Sparks Euro Momentum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.10.2023 16:21
EUR/USD Friday's US labor data for September surpassed expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the consensus estimate for 170,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000. The unemployment remained unchanged at 3.8%, and a broader measure of unemployment dropped to 7.0% from 7.1% in August. The initial market reaction was quite natural, with the dollar rising and the euro losing 80 pips. However, the dollar was sold off across a wide range of markets, including stock markets and commodities. As a result, the dollar index closed the day down by 0.26%, the S&P 500 rose 1.18%, and oil increased by 0.61% (WTI).   The market's counteraction to strong data is certainly a compelling argument in favor of further (although not quite prolonged) euro growth. From a technical standpoint, we saw a rebound from the point of intersection of the price channel line and support level of 1.0483, afterwards the quote exceeded the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0578. The Marlin oscillator has moved into bullish territory. Now, after breaking through the nearest resistance level at 1.0613, we are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.0687 and maybe even 1.0777.   On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above 1.0578. The morning gap that occurred due to the Hamas attack on Israel will soon be closed. The price is growing above the indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has firmly strengthened in the bullish territory. We expect the euro to rise further.  
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EUR/USD Trading Analysis: Strategic Insights and Transaction Guidelines

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.10.2023 15:24
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0503 coincided with the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero. No economic data for the eurozone will affect market volatility ahead of important labor market reports, except for the data on industrial orders in Germany, trade balance in Italy, and retail trade volume in France. However, they will unlikely have much impact on the market.   For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0552 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0595. Growth will occur amid weak US labor market data. Note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or rising from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0524, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0552 and 1.0595. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0524 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0475. Pressure may return, but they will not occur in the morning. Note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or dropping down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0552, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0524 and 1.0475.     Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market  
FX Daily: Fed Ends Bank Term Funding Program, Shifts Focus to US Regional Banks and 4Q23 GDP

EUR/USD Trading Analysis: Navigating Market Volatility Amid Crucial US Economic Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.10.2023 15:22
Early in the European session, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0541, above the 21 SMA, and above the downtrend channel that was broken yesterday in the American session. In the next few hours during the American session, data of crucial importance for the US economy will be published, namely, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs).   This data could generate strong volatility in the market and we could see bullish movement in the EUR/USD pair. This data, if negative, could give bullish momentum to the euro so that EUR/USD could reach 3/8 Murray and even the 200 EMA located at 1.0675. As the euro is exiting the overbought zone, a technical correction from current price levels towards the psychological level of 1.0500 could be seen as an opportunity to resume buying. The 2/8 Murray zone could be seen as an opportunity to buy just in case a technical bounce occurs above this area. On the other hand, if EUR/USD falls below 1.0500 (21 SMA), we could expect a bearish move to occur. The instrment could reach the October 3 low around 1.0447 and even 1/8 Murray at 1.0385. The daily pivot point is located around 1.0532 which favors a positive outlook. However, with a bounce around the daily S_1 support, we could expect an opportunity to buy the euro above 1.0513. The eagle indicator has been giving a positive signal since October 3. However, any pullback and while the euro trades above 1.0450 will be seen as an opportunity to buy with the target at 1.0675 (200 EMA).  
Tesla's Disappointing Q4 Results Lead to Share Price Decline: Challenges in EV Market and Revenue Miss

USD/JPY Trading Analysis: Navigating Transactions and Tips for Success

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.10.2023 15:18
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY Further growth became limited because the test of 149.04 coincided with the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. The second test, on the other hand, took place when the MACD line returned from the overbought area, providing a signal to sell. This led to a price decrease of over 50 pips. The Bank of Japan's intervention holds significant importance for the currency market. But for today, the pair's decline will be influenced by data from the US labor market, where unemployment figures will decrease to 3.7%. A sharp reduction in the number of new jobs in September could also weaken dollar, leading to an active sale of USD/JPY. Otherwise, if the data surpass forecasts even by a small margin, the pair will continue to rise, once again reaching 150 yen per dollar. Data on average hourly earnings in the US could also influence market sentiment, unlike the interview with FOMC member Christopher Waller.   For long positions: Buy when the price hits 149.04 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 150.03. Growth will only be possible amid very strong data from the US labor market, continuing the bullish trend. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 148.65, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.04 and 150.03. For short positions: Sell when the price reaches 148.65 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 147.77. Pressure will return in the event of a sharp reduction in jobs in the US and weak statistics. When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.04, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 148.65 and 147.77.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
Gold's Hedge Appeal Shines Amid Economic Uncertainty and Fed's Soft-Landing Challenge

Gold's Hedge Appeal Shines Amid Economic Uncertainty and Fed's Soft-Landing Challenge

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 15:04
As mentioned in previous updates, the reason why gold in our opinion has been holding up well despite the mentioned headwinds, is likely to be a market in search for a hedge against the current negative market sentiment and most importantly, the FOMC failing to deliver a soft, as opposed to a hard landing. A hard landing or stagflation may occur if the Fed keeps the Fed funds rate too high for too long or in the unlikely event the economy becomes too hot to handle. Other drivers can be rising energy prices keeping inflation elevated while hurting economic activity or a financial of geopolitical crisis erupts. Demand for gold as a hedge against a soft-landing failure is unlikely to go away as the outlook for the US economic outlook in the months ahead looks increasingly challenged. With that in mind, we maintain a patiently bullish view on gold while wondering whether the yellow metal in the short-term will continue to be able to withstand additional yield and dollar strength. The timing for a fresh push to the upside will remain very US economic data dependent as we wait for the FOMC to turn its focus from rate hikes to cuts, and during this time, as seen during the past quarter, we are likely to see continued choppy trade action. Spot gold, in a downward trending channel since May, is currently stuck in a $1900 to $1950 range with additional dollars and yield strength raising the risk of a short-term break below which may see $1885 being challenged. A close back above the 200-day moving average, last at $1927, is likely to coincide with a break of the mention downtrend, opening for a fresh attempt to challenge resistance in the $1950 area.  
Navigating Gold's Resilience Amidst Rising Yields and a Strong Dollar

Navigating Gold's Resilience Amidst Rising Yields and a Strong Dollar

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 15:02
Gold continues to defy the gravitational pull from rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar which gathered further momentum after the US Federal Reserve last week delivered a hawkish pause in their aggressive rate hike campaign. But while the normally strong inverse correlation with dollar and yields have faded, thereby reducing selling pressure from algorithmic focused trading strategies, gold's resilience continues to point to demand from investors seeking a hedge against nervous markets and the rising risk of stagflation hitting the US economy in the coming months.   Key points in this gold note Gold continues to show resilience despite multiple headwinds from dollar strength to rising yields and lower future rate cut expectations Support is likely to be driven by a market in search for a hedge against the FOMC failing to deliver a soft, as opposed to a hard landing. We maintain a patiently bullish view on investment metals as the timing of a fresh push to the upside remains very US ecnomic data dependent.  Gold continues to defy the gravitational pull from rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar which gathered further momentum after the US Federal Reserve last week delivered a hawkish pause in their aggressive rate hike campaign, while at the same forecasting considerably higher rates over 2024 and 2025 because of a resilient US economy, a strong labor market and sticky inflation, recently made worse by an OPEC-supported rise in energy prices. Following the FOMC announcement we have seen the dollar reach a fresh 11-month high against a broad basket of major currencies, while the yield on US 10-year Treasuries has reached a 16-year high above 4.5%. The short-term interest rate futures market has reduced bets on the number of 25 basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2024 to less than three from the current level, with risk of another hike before yearend kept open.     Looking at our gold monitor below, it is difficult to build a bullish case for gold if current developments were the only driver for the yellow metal. With the dollar and bond yields on the rise, the inverse correlation with a relatively stable gold has deteriorated, a development that has reduced selling pressures from algorithmic trading strategies, normally a major contributor to daily trading volumes. In addition, as mentioned the tailwind from future rate cuts has also faded as the market price in a higher for longer scenario. A development which for now continues to see some asset managers vote with their feet when it comes to investing in gold through Exchange-traded funds, the reason being the high opportunity cost of holding a non-interest paying position relative to short-term government bonds. The current cost of holding a gold position for 12 month is close to 6%, the bulk of that being the cost of borrowing dollars for one year, and until we see a clear trend towards lower rates and/or a upside break forcing a response, real money allocators will be looking for opportunities elsewhere. ETF investors which include the above mentioned group of real money allocators have been cutting holdings for the past four months, leaving the total down by 172.4 tons during this time to 2757.8 tons, a 3-1/2-year low. The leverage fund net long position meanwhile continue to hover around 60k contracts (6 million ounces), some 35k below the one-year average.            
Nuclear Power Emerges as Top Theme for 2023, Bubble Stocks Under Pressure

Nuclear Power Emerges as Top Theme for 2023, Bubble Stocks Under Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 14:59
The uranium spot price is continuing higher due to supply concerns and improving demand outlook for nuclear power plants driven by construction pipeline in Asia. Our nuclear power theme basket is getting closer to overtake semiconductors as the best performing theme basket in 2023. On the flip side, our bubble stocks basket is under pressure from rising US bond yields and waning risk sentiment in AI-related stocks. Key points in this equity note: Offshore wind and green transformation technology have had a bad year due to rising bond yields and high energy costs making steel and concrete expensive leading to waning appetite from investors. Nuclear power is getting closer to overtake semiconductors as the best performing theme in 2023 as governments are realizing that nuclear power is critical to achieve zero-carbon emission goals. Bubble stocks are under pressure from higher US bond yields and risk sentiment in generative AI stocks declining. Nuclear theme is steadily advancing as best theme in 2023 This year has been a catastrophe for wind turbine manufacturers such as Siemens Energy and Vestas. On the development side, Orsted’s massive write-down on its US offshore wind farms and UK offshore wind auctions attracting zero bidders underscore the problem for green transformation technologies amid rising long-term bond yields and still elevated spot prices on industrial metals. Higher energy costs also make steel and concrete more expensive. As green transformation and renewable energy theme baskets have had a terrible year another zero-carbon electricity source such as nuclear power is having a field day.     Our nuclear power theme basket is the only basket with a positive return the past week and is now up 24% zooming in on semiconductors which is currently the best performing basket. With the fallout of wind turbines and the acknowledgement of the need for a clean and reliant baseload nuclear power is fast becoming a critical option for governments among developed countries to expand clean electricity. Another driving force has been the steadily higher uranium prices which are a function of a squeeze in the physical uranium market as industry players are scrambling to deal with a potential ban of Russian nuclear fuel which would severely constrain the industry’s access to fuel. The Uranium spot weekly price (Ux U308) has risen well above its 2022 high. Physical uranium is difficult to get access to as an ordinary investor. The only viable option is investing in uranium miners which naturally have direct exposure to the uranium spot price. The chart below shows the Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF.     There are currently 60 nuclear power reactors under construction and the pipeline is steadily expanding with the majority of planned reactors still in Asia. Poland announced back in July another new nuclear power plant extending the country’s plans for nuclear power to takeover from coal power plants. In addition to new nuclear power plants, many upgrades are being done on existing power plants to expand capacity. In 2021, there were 440 operating nuclear power plants producing roughly 10% of the world’s electricity. As mentioned in one of recent equity notes, Sam Altman, the co-founder of OpenAI, is planning to IPO a small modular nuclear reactor company called Oklo in a sign that investor appetite has risen dramatically for this energy source. Most of the companies in our nuclear power theme basket are either utilities with a lot of exposure to nuclear power production or uranium miners. Cameco is one of the world’s largest uranium miners and providers of nuclear power fuel for reactors and has recently acquired (deal is not completed) a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric in order to divest away from the volatile market in uranium. Westinghouse Electric is one for the world’s largest suppliers of technology to nuclear power plants and thus the move by Cameco will create the most vertically integrated company in the nuclear power industry.     Bubble stocks have the highest beta and highest sensitivity to cost of capital On the flipside of the strong performance in nuclear power stocks and commodity related stock we find bubble stocks. These companies have high equity valuations and still not profitable which naturally make them more sensitive to higher cost of capital. In addition, these stocks have a very high downside beta of 2 or more, which means that they more twice as much or more when the general equity market declines. If US longer end bond yields continue higher then this group of stocks are extremely vulnerable. Another potential risk is the ending of the hype cycle around generative AI which has helped inflate equity valuations in bubble stocks.  
Crucial Upcoming PMI Data and High-Stake Meetings Shape China's Economic Landscape

Crucial Upcoming PMI Data and High-Stake Meetings Shape China's Economic Landscape

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 14:34
Looking ahead, investors are closely watching the upcoming PMI data releases. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI data on September 30. The Emerging Industries PMI's rise to 54.0 in September, up from 48.1 in August, has boosted expectations for a Manufacturing PMI above 50 for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI is also anticipated to show growth, driven by infrastructure construction and local government bond issuance. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI are scheduled to release on Sunday, October 1. Bloomberg's survey is projecting the Caixin Manufacturing PMI to increase to 51.2, up from 51.0 in August. Having a higher weight in exporters in the eastern coastal regions of China, the Caixin survey tends to be influenced by the export trend in China. The first 20-day trade data in Korea showed a rebound in trading activities with China and pointed to the potential of a positive surprise in this data. But the fact that the Korean data this September had 2.5 more working days might caution such a conjecture. The Caixin Services PMI is expected to tick up to 52 from 51.8. These PMI indicators serve as timely barometers of economic activity and provide insights into the pace of recovery of the Chinese economy. If they come in higher, it will tend to confirm our base case for a gradual recovery in progress and a tactical rally in the making for Chinese equities. Nonetheless, if the majority of them come in lower than expected or even fall, the equity market will be at risk of making new lows. The upcoming PMI data will be pivotal for the near-term direction of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets. It's worth noting that during this period, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong will be closed for the National Day holiday on Monday, October 2, while mainland bourses will be closed for six sessions to observe the Mid-autumn festival and the National Day holidays from Friday, September 29 to Friday, October 6, 2023.   Crucial Meetings on the Horizon Looking beyond the immediate economic data, several crucial meetings are on the horizon that will significantly impact China's economic and financial policies. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to convene in late October. This session will address critical economic policies and set the strategic framework for economic development over the next 5 to 10 years. Another important meeting is the 6th National Financial Work Conference, which guides major financial system reforms and addresses critical issues in the financial system. It is held every five years, and the last one was held in 2017. While it was initially slated for 2022, it was postponed and is widely expected to be held in Q4 this year. This conference is likely to cover topics such as deleveraging in the property sector, shadow banking, and local government debts. Additionally, it will likely shape the financial system in ways that focus on serving the real economy, the government’s industrial policies, and comprehensive national security. Additionally, the Central Economic Work Conference in December will review the economic performance of 2023 and begin formulating policies for 2024. These meetings come at a crucial juncture for China's economic trajectory and provide an opportunity for policymakers to address pressing issues and shape the country's economic future.   Closing Thoughts In conclusion, the situation surrounding China Evergrande and the broader property developer debt overhang remains a significant concern. There is no expectation of a policy bailout for property developers, and the focus is on clearing housing inventory and completing pre-sold units. Deleveraging efforts will continue in the property sector, shadow banking, and local government financing vehicles. Recent economic data show tentative signs of a recovery in the Chinese economy. The upcoming PMI data releases will provide further insights into the sustainability of this recovery. Beyond that, the forthcoming critical meetings, such as the Third Plenary Session and the 6th National Financial Work Conference, will play a vital role in shaping China's economic and financial policies. In light of these developments, the base case remains a gradual economic recovery. However, it's important to monitor the evolving situation and be prepared for potential market volatility based on the outcomes of these meetings and economic data. For now, a tactical trade to go long on China and Hong Kong equities for Q4 is intact, but investors should remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of uncertainty.
China's Property Debt Crisis, Economic Momentum, and Upcoming Meetings: A Market Analysis

China's Property Debt Crisis, Economic Momentum, and Upcoming Meetings: A Market Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 14:32
In this market pulse, we delve into the complex terrain of China's property debt overhang, examining the challenges faced by giants like Evergrande. We also assess the current economic momentum, highlighted by positive indicators and upcoming Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data releases. Moreover, we emphasize the pivotal role of impending crucial meetings, including the Third Plenary Session and the 6th National Financial Work Conference, in shaping China's economic policies.   Key Points: Examining the enormity of China's property debt crisis, including Evergrande's challenges. Highlighting recent signs of recovery and the significance of the upcoming PMI data. Previewing the upcoming Third Plenary Session and 6th National Financial Work Conference. Introduction China Evergrande's ongoing financial troubles and defaults have once again taken center stage, casting a dark cloud over the equity market. Meanwhile, China's economic recovery is showing signs of life, with attention turning to key economic indicators like the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). In addition to these economic developments, several crucial meetings on China's economic and financial policies are on the horizon. This article will delve into these topics, providing an analysis of the current situation and what lies ahead. China Property Developer Debt Overhang China Evergrande, one of the nation's largest property developers, has recently made headlines due to its inability to meet regulatory qualifications for issuing new debt. This situation escalated when its mainland unit, Hengda Real Estate Group, failed to make a scheduled payment of RMB4 billion in principal and interest. The broader issue here is the massive debt overhang in the Chinese property sector, totaling RMB60 trillion. A significant portion of this debt, RMB40 trillion, consists of mortgage debts that are relatively less risky for banks as long as the pre-sold units are completed and delivered to buyers. The focus for Chinese authorities is to resolve these pre-sold units to ensure contractors get paid and homebuyers receive their properties. The completion of unfinished housing projects requires substantially additional funds, estimated to be over RMB2 trillion, which may be shared by state-owned enterprises that take over the projects, local governments, and the central government. However, the more problematic area is the RMB20 trillion in property developer debts. It's highly unlikely that China will bail out insolvent property developers. Instead, these developers and their banks will likely sell encumbered projects, along with their loans, to stronger entities, often state-owned enterprises with government backing. The recent regulatory easing on housing demand may stabilize the housing market to some extent. Still, the overhang of housing inventories in lower-tier cities facing population decline will persist for several years. This will lead to more headlines about defaults, restructuring, and liquidation of insolvent developers, causing losses for shareholders, bondholders, banks, and investors in trust and wealth management products tied to property projects. Some trust companies and private equity funds in the shadow banking sector may be subject to losses detrimental to their financial viability. While the banking sector, which holds around 75% of the RMB20 trillion developer debts, has sufficient capital buffers to absorb losses, the extent of the impact will depend on the successful liquidation of housing inventories by insolvent developers to stronger entities, likely brokered by local governments. This process is expected to negatively affect the profitability of banks in China. Economic Momentum and PMI Data Recent economic indicators have shown signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. The Citi China Economic Surprise Index (Figure 1) has rebounded, indicating fewer instances of economic data falling below expectations. As discussed in last week's Market Pulse note, retail sales, industrial production, trade, and inflation data improved in August.    The release today of a bounce in August industrial profit growth to 17.2% YoY (Figure 2), the first monthly year-on-year growth since June of last year, provides additional support for the pick-up in growth found in the industrial production released last week.    
USD/JPY Eyes Psychological Level of 150.00 Amidst BoJ's Monetary Policy and Fed's Rate Hike Expectations

USD/JPY Eyes Psychological Level of 150.00 Amidst BoJ's Monetary Policy and Fed's Rate Hike Expectations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 14:12
For the fourth consecutive day, the USD/JPY pair is steadily heading towards the psychological level of 150.00, currently trading above the 149.00 mark.   The Japanese yen continues to face pressure due to the Bank of Japan's decision last week to maintain the status quo. At the end of the September meeting, the Japanese central bank left its ultra-loose policy unchanged, refraining from any hints of possible changes in the near future.   Additionally, earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the current policy has a significant stimulative effect on the economy, and the main position is to patiently maintain monetary easing. He added that Japan's economy is at a critical stage in achieving a positive wage growth cycle and sustainable inflation at 2%, which is not yet visible. Such statements dispel hopes of a future exit from the massive stimulus program and continue to undermine the yen. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates will not be falling in the near future. It openly stated that there will be further rate hikes by the end of the year, with only two rate cuts expected in 2024, instead of the previously speculated four, as anticipated three months ago.   Many FOMC members still express uncertainty about the end of the fight against inflation. Consequently, this supports the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy. This, in turn, led to selling in the U.S. bond market and pushed the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to the highest level since 2007, which became a key factor in the recent rise of the U.S. dollar to a 10-month peak and continues to support the USD/JPY pair's upward trajectory.   Nevertheless, the prevailing risk-off environment favors the relative status of JPY as a safe haven and limits the potential for spot price growth. But it should not be forgotten that Japanese authorities will intervene in the currency market to support the national currency. This restrains bulls from pushing USD/JPY to new levels. In fact, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a new warning against the recent weakness of the yen and stated last week that the government would not rule out any options to address excessive volatility in the currency markets.   This, in turn, requires caution before taking positions regarding the continuation of the established upward trend observed since mid-July. However, for now, the fundamental backdrop supports the pair's growth. But it is worth paying attention to today's news regarding the dollar before rushing into betting on further moves.  
EUR/USD Downtrend Continues: Factors Driving the Euro's Decline and Outlook

EUR/USD Downtrend Continues: Factors Driving the Euro's Decline and Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 14:10
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement throughout Tuesday. Volatility remained relatively weak, and the decline was not too strong. Nevertheless, it is very stable and raises no questions. We have repeatedly mentioned in recent weeks that such a movement is expected from the European currency, even if it seems illogical at first glance. For example, on Monday and Tuesday, there were no significant events or publications to justify the continued decline of the European currency. Last week, we expected an upward correction, which has yet to materialize. However, this market situation is the most logical one after the euro either rose unjustifiably in the first half of the year or simply held at a very high level without a correction. We believe that this factor is crucial for the euro and the dollar right now.   Consider this: if the Federal Reserve has raised and is raising interest rates more aggressively than the ECB, why have we seen the euro currency rise over the past year? Assume that the market has already set prices for all rate increases in the United States. In that case, why weren't rate hikes in the European Union priced the same way? The European economy has been struggling for several quarters, while in the US, we have seen quarterly growth of 2-3%. Based on all these factors, we have constantly stated that it's time for the pair to move downward. Significantly and for the long term. We do not rule out the possibility that, by the end of the year, the euro currency will return to parity with the dollar. In the 24-hour timeframe, the pair has breached the important Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.0609) and is now almost guaranteed to drop to the 5th level. Remember that we have long referred to level 1.05 as the target. However, the movement to the south may not end there. We fully consider the possibility of a drop to the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% (1.0200). Muller and de Cos are once again pushing the euro lower. There have been no significant macroeconomic publications in the past few days. Only today in the United States will the report on durable goods orders be published, which can be considered more or less significant. However, over the past few days and the entire last week, we have witnessed speeches by representatives of the ECB's monetary committee. Several times a day. In principle, it became clear last week that the ECB is on the home stretch and will raise rates at most one more time. As we have mentioned, in the case of the ECB or the Federal Reserve, such actions can be considered logical, as the central banks have raised (or will raise by the end of the year) rates to almost 6%. Further rate hikes would be risky for the economy. But the situation is different with the ECB. The rate is slightly above 4%, which is clearly insufficient to bring inflation back to the target level in the near future.     But we are not here to judge the ECB; we are merely stating a fact: the ECB's rate has increased too weakly compared to the Federal Reserve's rate, and the euro currency has risen for too long based on expectations of a strong tightening of monetary policy in the European Union. The European currency may continue to decline peacefully because a wave of disappointment has now covered the market. On Tuesday, Madis Muller from the ECB stated that he does not expect a new rate hike. De Cos and de Galhau, the heads of Spain's and France's central banks, as well as Vice President de Guindos, had previously made similar statements. In one way or another, all ECB representatives have indicated that further tightening will only be possible in the event of accelerated inflation. However, the market is not too satisfied with this formulation because everyone understands that the European Union will be battling high inflation for several years to come. Just like the United Kingdom, but at least with Britain, it can be said that the central bank has done everything it could.   The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of September 27th is 65 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0495 and 1.0625 on Wednesday. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a new attempt to make a slight correction. The nearest support levels are: S1: 1.0498 Nearest resistance levels: R1 = 1.0620 R2: 1.0742 R3: 1.0864     Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair maintains a downtrend. Short positions can be held with targets at 1.0510 and 1.0495 until the price consolidates above the moving average. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the moving average with a target of 1.0742. Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it means the trend is strong right now. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at the moment. Murray levels: target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines): the probable price channel in which the pair will move in the next day based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator: its entry into the overbought region (above +250) or oversold region (below -250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  
EUR/USD Faces Ongoing Decline Amid Budget and Market Turbulence

EUR/USD Faces Ongoing Decline Amid Budget and Market Turbulence

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 14:05
EUR/USD A significant decline in stock markets, gold, and several commodities on Tuesday helped boost the counter-dollar currencies as investors await the budget-parliamentary crisis in the United States. Yesterday, the S&P 500 lost 1.47% and gold dropped by 0.88%. Yields on 5-year U.S. government bonds edged up, but this only confirms the investors' bets on a budget "short squeeze." This is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of reduced attention to the "government shutdown." The euro has been declining for the eleventh consecutive week. From a technical perspective, a turbulent correction begins after twelve weeks of either rising or falling. This pattern is rare; the last time it occurred with the euro was in the summer and fall of 2014 during the height of the European crisis, with a caveat related to the candle of the second week of September. Prior to that, with a similar caveat, the pattern occurred in the fall of 2004 when the euro rose for 11 consecutive weeks.     On the daily chart, the price has come very close to the magnetic intersection point of three lines: the Fibonacci ray, the Fibonacci channel line, and the target level of 1.0552. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in no hurry to exit the wedge. In the eleventh week, the price may still dip below this support, but in such a situation, time becomes the main factor - Monday of the following week.   On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has turned the convergence into a wide range within a downtrend. The price has approached the lower band of the 1.0552 range and may now edge up. One reason for the rise could be a decrease in orders for durable goods in the United States, expected at -0.5% for August.      
EUR/USD Downtrend Continues: Factors Driving the Euro's Decline and Outlook

Stuck in a Range: AUD/USD Waiting for Inflation Signals Amid Dollar Strength

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 13:52
The AUD/USD pair is stuck in the 0.6380-0.6450 range. In general, the current fundamental background allows bulls to expect new price gains, if not for one "but" – the greenback. The US dollar's position is quite strong, and this serves as an obstacle to the development of an upward movement. However, AUD/USD bears are also unable to take advantage of the greenback's strength: as soon as the pair declines into the 63-figure area, sellers take profits, thus impeding the bearish momentum.   In other words, the pair is in a deadlock situation. To develop an upward movement, buyers need to overcome the level of 0.6450 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), and in order to restore the downtrend, sellers need to push through the support level of 0.6370 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe). Both are challenging tasks, given the current fundamental picture. Traders need a strong informational impetus that will push the pair out of the range – either to the south or to the north. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is on the greenback's side. The results of the latest Fed meeting supported the US currency. The central bank updated its dot plot, indicating that it intends to raise interest rates once again by the end of this year, either at the November or December meeting.   Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed these intentions, citing the high level of inflation. However, Powell tied future central bank decisions to the dynamics of key inflation indicators. This is why the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which will be published on Friday (September 29), may trigger strong volatility among dollar pairs. According to preliminary forecasts, this crucial inflation indicator is expected to decrease to 3.9% YoY, which is the lowest value since September 2021. In such a case, the dollar bulls may come under pressure because the likelihood of a rate hike in November will significantly decrease (at the moment, this probability is around 30%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool). Conversely, if the index starts to gain momentum and goes against forecasts, hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's future course of actions will increase. Take note that inflation could provide support to the aussie. In this case, we're talking about the Australian Consumer Price Index.   The inflation data for August will be published on Wednesday. The market forecast was for a 5.2% increase in the reported period. If the release comes in at least at the forecasted level (not to mention the "green zone"), the Australian dollar could receive significant support. The key point here is that the CPI has been consistently declining for the past three months, reaching 4.9% in July. If the CPI grows, it will be a "warning sign" for the Reserve Bank of Australia.   It's important to recall the main points from the recently published minutes of the RBA's September meeting. The text mentioned that the Board considered two scenarios: 1) a 25-basis-point rate hike; 2) keeping the rate unchanged. In the end, the majority of the RBA officials agreed with the arguments in favor of maintaining the status quo. However, simultaneously, the central bank emphasized that "some further tightening may be required" in the future if inflation proves to be "more persistent than expected." Clearly, the August CPI will be viewed by the market in terms of a potential RBA reaction. If the gauge exceeds expectations, buyers of AUD/USD will have an informational catalyst for an upward movement.     Do recall that the recent Australian labor data was also in favor of the aussie. Unemployment in August remained at the July level (i.e., at 3.7%), despite forecasts of an increase to 3.9%. The employment figure also grew significantly, reflecting an increase of almost 65,000, while the forecast was for an increase of only 26,000. The labor force participation rate increased to 67.0%, which is the highest result in the history of these observations. In addition, Australia's GDP data, which was published in early September, also supported the aussie, although the report was somewhat contradictory.   The country's GDP increased by 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter. On one hand, this figure shows a downtrend (the result for the first quarter was 2.4%, and for the fourth quarter of 2022, it was 2.6%). On the other hand, experts had forecasted a weaker result for the second quarter, around 1.8% year-on-year. Therefore, the Australian dollar may emerge in the near future.   If Australia's inflation report comes out in the "green zone" (or at least in line with forecasts), and the report on the core PCE index comes out in the "red zone" (or at least in line with forecasts), buyers of AUD/USD may not only test the resistance level at 0.6450 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart) but also approach the next price barrier at 0.6500 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe). So, all eyes are on inflation!  
China's Property Debt Crisis, Economic Momentum, and Upcoming Meetings: A Market Analysis

Economic Calendar and Market Analysis for September 26-27: Euro and Pound React to ECB Announcement, Durable Goods Orders Awaited in the US

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 13:51
Details of the Economic Calendar on September 26 European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane announced a shift in monetary policy towards a more accommodative stance but also presented forecasts indicating the possibility of the first interest rate cut as early as the second quarter of next year. Furthermore, the refinancing rate could be reduced by 150 basis points over the next two years. Based on this information, the euro accelerated its decline, and as a result, the British pound also shifted towards active weakening.   Analysis of Trading Charts from September 26 The EUR/USD currency pair concluded its pullback with a new surge in the volume of short positions. As a result, the local low of the downward cycle was updated, and the technical signal of oversold euro remains in the market. On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, during its inertial movement, does not respond to technical signals of oversold conditions. As a result, the exchange rate fell below the level of 1.2150, indicating significant speculative interest in short positions. Economic Calendar for September 27 Today, the publication of data on durable goods orders in the United States is expected, with expectations of a decrease of 1.4% in the volume of these orders. This should be considered in light of the previous month when they fell by 5.2%. Thus, this will be the second consecutive month of declining orders for durable goods. Durable goods orders reflect the state of consumer activity, which is a driver of economic growth. If the data confirms a decline in orders, this could put pressure on the dollar in the market.     EUR/USD Trading Plan for September 27 Based on the oversold signal for the euro exchange rate, it can be assumed that the support level at 1.0500 may play as support. In this case, there is a scenario of slowing down the current downward cycle within this level, which could lead to an increase in the volume of long-term positions, potentially resulting in a partial recovery of the euro exchange rate. However, if speculators ignore the technical oversold signal and the exchange rate remains below the level of 1.0500 during the day, this could support the momentum in the euro market for some time.   GBP/USD Trading Plan for September 27 If the inertial movement continues in the market, and traders continue to ignore the technical oversold signal for the British pound, further depreciation of the exchange rate towards the psychological level of 1.1950/1.2050 is possible. What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.    
The Complex Factors Influencing Gold Prices in 2023: From Interest Rates to China's Impact

The Complex Factors Influencing Gold Prices in 2023: From Interest Rates to China's Impact

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 13:47
What does the price of gold depend on? At first glance, the answer is simple—it depends on the cost of money. The lower central bank interest rates are, the cheaper they become. The more expensive the precious metal must be quoted. Conversely, in times of high interest rates, the XAU/USD pair should fall.   At the same time, gold is an anti-dollar. The dynamics of the USD index often determine where the precious metal will move. Unfortunately, in 2023, historical correlations were disrupted, and only the September meeting of the Federal Reserve returned everything to its usual state. Looking at how gold maintains stability in the face of rising real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, investors involuntarily asked themselves why. Real yields are the cost of money. In a world of expensive money, precious metals should not feel comfortable. Dynamics of gold and real yields of U.S. Treasury bonds.     The same can be said for the dollar. It pleasantly surprised its fans, marking a 10-week winning streak amid the strength of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to allow a dovish pivot. Speculators en masse closed short positions on the U.S. currency, and the expectation of a government shutdown only fueled demand for it as a safe haven. Nevertheless, gold ignored the extremely unfavorable external background until the end of September, which allowed for bullish forecasts. After all, if an asset doesn't go where it is expected to, it's more likely to go in the opposite direction. According to Macquarie, the precious metal can rise to $2100 per ounce if U.S. Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar decline. If you receive good news in adverse conditions, XAU/USD is capable of marking a swift rally.   Dynamics of gold and the U.S. dollar   To the disappointment of gold enthusiasts, positive news is not coming in. Investors are gradually getting used to the idea that high interest rates are here to stay for a long time. The cost of money has sharply increased and will remain so for an extended period. The precious metal loses its shine and begins to do what it should—fall. In my opinion, the reasons for the stability of XAU/USD should be sought in China. Currently, premiums for bars in Shanghai exceed prices in London and New York by more than $100 per ounce. Gold in China costs more than $2000. The People's Bank of China started this process by avidly buying precious metals as part of the de-dollarization process. Then consumers picked up the baton. Due to the real estate market crisis, the weakening of the yuan, and strict capital controls, the population is buying gold.     Unfortunately, intermarket connections will sooner or later make themselves felt. The strengthening of the dollar and the rise in the real yields of U.S. Treasury bonds pushed XAU/USD below 1900. Technically, on the daily chart, gold has the formation of a Shark pattern at 5-0. The target level at 161.8%, according to the latest model, is $1825 per ounce. Breaking support at $1895 will allow for the formation of short positions.  
Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise Amid Tight Supply and Economic Uncertainty

Bank of England's Interest Rate Dilemma Amid High Inflation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.09.2023 13:46
In order to understand how the Bank of England is going to act at the remaining two meetings in 2023, we need to consider its potential for raising interest rates. The first and most crucial indicator that the central bank (and the markets) has been relying on for some time is inflation. However, as of September, inflation remains extremely high, well above the target level. One might assume that the BoE will continue to hike rates, but in September, it took a pause. A pause can only mean two things: either the BoE is preparing to end the tightening process, or it has already completed it     BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and some other members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee have mentioned that they expect inflation to drop to 5% by the end of the year. A 5% inflation rate is still very high, 2.5 times above the target. If the BoE is already prepared to conclude its tightening, it may not achieve the target. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that inflation won't start accelerating again.   For instance, US inflation has been rising for the past two months. All I want to convey with these arguments is that it's still too early to assume that inflation can return to 2% at the current interest rate level. Based on that, I believe that the BoE has exhausted its potential for rate hikes, and this is the main reason for the pause in September. Now, the central bank will only raise rates if inflation starts to accelerate significantly. And in that case, the 2% target may be forgotten for several years even with a peak rate, but we could still see 1-2 more emergency rate hikes. I also want to note that the BoE (like the European Central Bank) is counting on holding rates at the peak level for an extended period to bring inflation back to 2%. This was mentioned after last week's meeting.   The Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to slow down further, but Bailey says cutting rates would be "very premature". Four out of nine committee members voted for a rate hike at the previous meeting. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee said its balance sheet of government debt will shrink by £100 billion. Based on the analysis conducted, I came to the conclusion that a downward wave pattern is being formed.   I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range for the downtrend are quite feasible, especially since they are quite near. Therefore, I will continue to sell the instrument. Since the downward wave did not end near the 1.0637 level, we can expect the pair to fall to the 1.05 level and slightly below. However, the second corrective wave will start sooner or later.     The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline within the downtrend. At most, the British pound can expect the formation of wave 2 or b in the near future. However, even with a corrective wave, there are still significant challenges. At this time, I would remain cautious about selling, as there may be a corrective upward wave forming in the near future, but for now we have not seen any signals for this wave yet.  
EUR/USD Faces Ongoing Decline Amid Budget and Market Turbulence

Uncertainty Surrounds UK Economic Data Impact on Markets Amid Rising Wages and Inflation Concerns

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2023 09:18
I previously mentioned that all the interesting events will start on Wednesday. Tuesday also had some interesting reports, particularly the UK unemployment or wage data. However, if these reports did influence market sentiment, they did it in a very strange way, and their values are quite difficult to interpret. For example, how can we characterize high wage growth? Is it good for the Brits or not? If wages are rising, it means inflation could start rising again (Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also mentioned this). Then the BoE might raise rates several more times, which are not currently taken into account in prices. But does the market believe in this, and is the BoE capable of easily and simply raising rates "several more times"? I doubt it. From this perspective, it seems that rising wages, like rising inflation, will no longer affect the central bank's actions.     The UK will release important GDP and industrial production data on Wednesday. It is estimated that in July, GDP will contract by 0.2-0.3% MoM, and industrial output will fall by 0.6-0.8%. Such reports are unlikely to support demand for the British currency. Unless the actual values turn out to be higher. However, it is very difficult to expect positive economic data from the British economy right now. The BoE's interest rate continues to rise, which means that financial conditions are deteriorating. At the same time, inflation remains high. It's a complex equation that will be very difficult for the BoE to solve. The US inflation report is much more important and it's also quite complex.   If we assume that inflation rose again in August, how might this affect the Fed's decision next week? There are reasons to believe that it won't have much impact. There are also grounds to believe that the rate might increase, although previously, the FOMC made decisions to raise rates once every two meetings. But two consecutive accelerations in inflation could persuade the monetary policy committee of the US central bank otherwise. Based on everything mentioned, there are many questions but no answers yet. I fear that the currency market may become quite active Wednesday and Thursday, but both instruments may frequently change their direction. In my opinion, it's best to use the Fibonacci level at 100.0% for the British pound as a reference point.   A successful breakthrough could pull down both instruments again. Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are quite feasible. Therefore, I will continue to sell the instrument with targets located near the levels of 1.0636 and 1.0483. A successful attempt to break through the 1.0788 level will indicate the market's readiness to sell further, and then we can expect to reach the targets I've been discussing for several weeks and months.   The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. There is a risk of completing the current downward wave if it is d, and not wave 1. In this case, the construction of wave 5 might start from the current marks. But in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the first wave of a new segment. Therefore, the most that we can expect from this is the construction of wave "2" or "b". An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.2444 level, corresponding to 100.0% on the Fibonacci scale, may indicate the market's readiness to build an upward wave.  
Bullish Dollar Sentiment Prevails Amid CFTC Report and Rate Hike Expectations

Bullish Dollar Sentiment Prevails Amid CFTC Report and Rate Hike Expectations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2023 09:15
The CFTC report published on Friday showed that long-term investors are bullish on the dollar. The weekly change was +3.6 billion, and the net short dollar position decreased to -6.9 billion. Among the major world currencies, only the yen has refrained from selling off, while all other currencies saw weekly changes in favor of the dollar. The US inflation data for August will be published on Wednesday. Rising oil prices may lead to a 0.5% m/m increase in overall inflation, which could fuel another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.   However, slowing wage growth could have a positive impact on consumer price growth in the services sector. At the moment, the markets are convinced that the Fed will take a break at the next meeting, the likelihood of a rate hike is only 7%, and the key meeting in this cycle will be in November, which is still far off. We believe that the US dollar is still the main favorite of the foreign exchange market, and investors will continue to buy because the market is convinced of the strength of the US economy. Although the greenback retreated from its previous highs on Monday, the other currencies look weaker. A possible rate hike by the European Central Bank is unlikely to strengthen the euro's position because weak economic data reduce the chances of decisive action by the ECB, and any sign of weakness on the part of the bank will be perceived by markets as another confirmation of the dollar's strength.   EUR/USD The ECB will hold its meeting on Thursday, where a final rate hike of 0.25% is expected. The markets still do not have a consensus on whether this hike will happen next Thursday or if the ECB willtake a pause until the next meeting. The high wage growth rates in the eurozone favor a rate hike. In the second quarter, wage growth was 5.6% y/y, even higher than the 5.4% in the previous quarter and exceeding the ECB's estimate of 5.3%, which was presented in June.   Accordingly, the threat to core inflation remains high, and it is expected to fall to 3% in the second half of 2024. ECB officials are sending mixed signals, and there is no unified position. Some hint at the need to take a pause, while others focus on high core inflation and urge not to stop. The European Commission has lowered its economic growth forecast for the eurozone by 0.3% for 2023 and 2024 to 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively. The inflation forecast for the current year has been reduced to 5.6%, but it has been raised to 2.9% for the following year. The European Commission believes that the ECB will raise rates by 0.25% on Thursday, claiming that the market is leaning toward this opinion.     The European Commission holds a pessimistic view of the prospects for eurozone economic growth, which does not contribute to euro demand. The value of the net long euro position fell by 1.6 billion to 18.2 billion during the reporting week. Net positioning continues to be bullish, and the trend favors selling the euro. The price is below the long-term average, which supports further euro depreciation, but the dynamics are neutral.     EUR/USD, as we suggested a week ago, broke below the lower band of the channel at 1.0764 and headed towards the local low of 1.0634. Traders will likely test the low; the question is whether the euro will break this support on the first attempt, or if a second wave will be needed. In case the euro continues to correct higher, we can expect a retracement to the resistance zone of 1.0790/0810. We consider this scenario less likely, as we believe that the euro will fall further, with the support zone of 1.0605/35 as the target. GBP/USD The pound has slightly recovered from its decline following hawkish comments from the Bank of England. Speaking in Canada, Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann signaled she's likely to support further rate hikes as she sees persistent inflation harder to fight than a downturn. She also said it is a "risky bet", but it's better to make a mistake that can be corrected later, and this implies a call for further rate hikes. The labor market report for August was set to be published on Tuesday, with investors focused on the average earnings growth rate. It is expected that the 3-month measure will remain at 7.8%. Any deviation from the forecast could change rate expectations, potentially leading to increased volatility for the pound. The value of the net long pound position fell by 0.2 billion to 3.6 billion during the reporting week. Despite a fairly deep sell-off in recent weeks, net positioning continues to be bullish, which does not prevent the price from falling.   As expected, the pound successfully tested the support at 1.2545. There are almost no reasons for an upward reversal, and any potential corrective rise is limited by the resistance zone of 1.2545/65. We expect the bearish sentiment to persist. The goal is an update of the local low and a move below 1.2440, with the next target being 1.2290/2310. Here, the pound may find strong support. From a technical perspective, falling below this area would suggest the end of the long-term uptrend.  
EUR/USD Faces Resistance at 1.0774 Amid Inflation and Stagflation Concerns

EUR/USD Faces Resistance at 1.0774 Amid Inflation and Stagflation Concerns

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2023 14:09
EUR/USD On Thursday, the euro dipped a bit further and reached the target level of 1.0692. The convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart is getting stronger and becoming more pronounced.     Now, the main concern is on inflation figures in China and the US, which is related to the global inflation issue. This is because a spike in oil prices is preventing a significant decline in inflation. There is talk about a stagflation looming over the world. Investors will pay attention to China's CPI figures, to be released on Saturday, and the main event will be the US inflation data for August on Wednesday.   It's possible that oil prices have not yet been included in the CPI (although they have already affected producer prices), in which case it may create the impression that concerns about stagflation are exaggerated. Today, for instance, the forecast for Germany's CPI is a drop from 6.2% YoY to 6.1% YoY. As a result, the dollar may weaken and we might see a corrective growth in the euro. This could persist until the next Federal Reserve meeting. On the 4-hour chart, the price and the oscillator have formed a convergence. The euro started to rapidly rise, and we have all the conditions for the pair to reach the first target at 1.0774. The MACD indicator line is approaching this level. Overcoming it may provide additional strength for the upward movement. Let's also take a look at the weekly chart. The pair has continued to fall for the eighth consecutive week, and the current candle is on the 5th Fibonacci timeline. Two scenarios are possible: either it continues to fall for another 2-3 candles (making it 11 candles in total), or the next candle and the following ones (up to the 6th line) will be white.            
The American Dollar's Unyielding Strength Amidst Market Surprises and Economic Divergence

The American Dollar's Unyielding Strength Amidst Market Surprises and Economic Divergence

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2023 14:06
The time is coming when the strongest trend is coming to an end. But this does not apply to the American dollar. In 2021, it strengthened due to expectations of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and in 2022, due to its implementation. In 2023, investors expected the trend in the USD index to be broken. And at first, everything was going according to plan. However, in the summer, there was a 180-degree turnaround, which came as a real surprise to hedge funds. They remain short sellers of the American currency and are losing money.   Dynamics of the U.S. dollar and hedge fund positionsej     The September survey of Reuters experts suggests that in the short term, "bears" on EUR/USD will maintain their strength due to a strong economy and high U.S. Treasury bond yields. However, over the next three months, the euro will rise to $1.09. In 6 months, it will be worth $1.10, and in 12 months, $1.12. This forecast is based on the idea of a dovish pivot and the central bank's move towards reducing federal funds rates. Derivatives indicate that it will drop by 100 basis points in 2024. The same opinion was held about the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the year, but its opponents were proven wrong. At that time, investors were worried about a recession.   It was supposed to force the Federal Reserve to loosen its monetary policy. In the early autumn, markets began to fear not an economic downturn but its overheating. If the United States maintains its strength, inflation could accelerate, prompting the Federal Reserve to return to monetary tightening and further strengthen the American dollar. If we also consider that the American economy is the cleanest shirt in the basket of dirty laundry, the decline in EUR/USD seems logical. Indeed, following new manufacturing orders in Germany, German industrial production disappointed.   In July, it contracted by 0.8%. The leading economy in the eurozone has still not emerged from the slump. Is it surprising that the GDP of the currency bloc grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter? Less than the 0.3% in the initial estimate.     Thus, if in 2021-2022, the focus in the Forex market was on monetary policy and fear of high inflation, in 2023, they gave way to economic growth divergence. Judging by the strong labor market positions and the surge in business activity in the services sector to a six-month high, the U.S. GDP in the third quarter may expand by 3% or more. What's the point of selling the dollar? It's much more interesting to acquire securities denominated in it. The capital flow to North America has supported and will continue to support the "bears" on EUR/USD.     The ECB, on the other hand, can only sympathize. On the one hand, the European Central Bank is obliged to maintain "hawkish" rhetoric in the face of inflation exceeding 5%. On the other hand, the higher the interest rates rise, the greater the chances of a recession in the eurozone economy. Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, the inability of the "bulls" to hold onto the key pivot level of 1.0715 indicates their weakness. The decline of the pair to 1.066 and 1.0595 continues. The recommendation is to hold shorts.  
Doubts Surround Euro Amid European Economic Concerns and Political Speeches

Doubts Surround Euro Amid European Economic Concerns and Political Speeches

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2023 13:54
While the euro is actively trying to find some kind of bottom against the US dollar, the speeches of European politicians are coming to an end. Perhaps after that, the pressure on the single currency will somehow decrease, but personally, I have strong doubts about this, as there are absolutely no reasons for it. And if we also consider the first possible pause in the cycle of interest rate hikes from 2022, as well as the actively shrinking European economy, then we can deduce that there will be fewer reasons to buy risky assets.   However, some hawkish European politicians continue to "stick to their guns." According to a member of the Executive Board, Klaas Knot, investors betting against the European Central Bank raising interest rates next week may underestimate the likelihood of it happening. While a slowdown in the eurozone's 20-nation economy is sure to damp demand, updated inflation projections won't differ much from the last round in June, the Dutch central bank chief said. "I continue to think that hitting our inflation target of 2% at the end of 2025 is the bare minimum we have to deliver," said Knot.   As I mentioned earlier, he made such statements before a week-long period of calm preceding the September meeting of the ECB Governing Council. Knot also noted that the markets are currently experiencing difficulties, which are also experienced by the central bank. Just recently, the central bank governors of Germany, Belgium, Austria, and Latvia expressed support for another quarter-point rate hike, likely the last in this cycle. However, their colleagues from Italy and Portugal are among those emphasizing that economic risks are starting to emerge. Recent eurozone PMI data and today's revised downward GDP report for the eurozone in the 2nd quarter clearly indicate this. ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking earlier this week, also did not make any commitments, simply stating that inflation is too high, and the central bank is determined to tame it, with decisions based on appropriate data. Obviously, it's also challenging to assess the current progress in inflation. Underlying pressure has decreased, but the overall reading has increased due to a sharp spike in non-oil prices. European politicians have also recently discussed this, lamenting issues with the energy market. Wage negotiations and corporate price behavior will be crucial in determining how quickly inflation returns to the target level. As for today's technical picture for EUR/USD, the bears have slightly eased their grip. To maintain control, bulls need to stay above 1.0700. This will allow them to break back to 1.0750. From there, they can climb to 1.0770, but it will be quite difficult to do so without support from major players. In the event of a downtrend, I only expect significant action from major buyers around 1.0700. If there's no significant support there, it would be a good idea to wait for a new low at 1.0665 or open long positions from 1.0635. Regarding the technical picture for GBP/USD, the pound will continue to fall. We can only bet on a recovery once traders take control of the level at 1.2530. Returning to this range will restore hope for a recovery towards 1.2560, after that we can talk about a more significant surge towards 1.2700. In case the pair falls, bears will try to take control below 1.2484. If they succeed in doing so, breaking through the range will hit bullish positions and push GBP/USD towards the low at 1.2440 with the potential to reach 1.2400.
The UK Contracts Faster Than Expected in July, Bank of England Still Expected to Hike Rates

US ISM Services PMI Defies Global Trends, Boosting US Dollar Amid Mixed Economic Signals

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2023 13:50
Instead of declining, the US ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 in August from 52.7 in July. The report recorded growth in all key parameters – employment, new orders, and even prices. Apparently, increased levels of consumer spending had become the main reason for the rise, but the question of whether consumer activity will remain high in the coming months remains debatable. The US ISM data contrasts with the rest of the world, as similar gauges in China, the eurozone, and the UK, showed a decline, and the market interprets the results in favor of the US dollar.   Take note that the final reading from S&P Global Business on the US services sector PMI was slightly lower than the preliminary one - 50.5 vs. 51.0, which sharply contradicts the ISM readings. This imbalance will be resolved next month. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that economic and labor market growth slowed in July and August, while many businesses expect wage growth to slow down in the near future. Here, too, we see a discrepancy with the ISM assessment, especially in light of the Fed's policy of restraining consumer demand as one of the key factors in inflation.   The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 6. Take note that this is a very high figure.   In summary, the general fundamental story suggests that the US is still a bit stronger compared to the rest of the world, and this will be the catalyst for the dollar strength, which remains the primary favorite in the currency market.   USD/CAD As anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its key overnight interest rate unchanged at 5%. Therefore, changes in policy are deferred to the next meeting on October 26, where, among other things, forecasts will be updated. In the accompanying statement for the July 12 meeting, it was stated that the rate was raised due to accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation have proved to be persistent. This time, the wording has been changed to a more neutral tone: "With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagging effects of monetary policy...". This implies that the BoC believes that the measures taken earlier are yielding results and no changes are needed. Only time will tell whether this is really the case, but one thing is clear – the Canadian dollar has become more susceptible to further weakness. At least, concern about the persistently high core inflation was specifically emphasized. At the moment, the probability of a rate hike in October is estimated at 25%, which is too little for a bullish revision of CAD forecasts. The net short CAD position increased by 0.3 billion to -1.2 billion over the reporting week, indicating bearish positioning. The price is significantly above the long-term average, and there are no signs of a reversal. USD/CAD continues to gradually rise. The pair has reached the nearest target that we mentioned in the previous review, and it appears that it will eventually test the upper band of the 1.3700/20 channel. It is likely for the pair to break above the channel, with 1.3857 as the medium-term target. From a technical perspective, after testing the upper band of the channel, we can expect a retracement towards the channel's midpoint. However, fundamental indicators suggest further growth.      
The AI Race: US vs. China in the Battle for Technological Dominance

US Non-Farm Payrolls Support Fed's Strategy: GBP/USD and EUR/USD Analysis, UK Forex Trends, and Rate Hike Expectations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2023 14:54
The US non-farm payroll report for August, published on Friday, turned out to be perfect for the Federal Reserve. It's not so much about the figures, which were quite moderate, but about how they perfectly supported the Fed's strategy. The chances of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting have dropped to 7%, which means it's safe to say that the rate hike cycle is over. Unless, of course, something unbelievable happens, but such assumptions should hardly be expected.   The first rate cut is expected in May 2024, and this forecast has not changed.   What was positive in the report? First and foremost, it was the fact that average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month, against the expectations of 0.3%. This is the smallest increase in the last 12 months. Slower wage growth is an important basis for reducing overall inflationary pressure. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 187,000 for the month, defying expectations, which could have been seen as a high level of activity had it not been for a revision to the previous two months' figures of 110,000, which more than offset the excess. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, the highest since February 2022. Overall, we can say that the Fed is consistently achieving its goal of cooling the economy to reduce inflationary pressure. Another significant release on Friday was the US ISM manufacturing index, which showed that the slowdown in the US manufacturing sector continues, albeit at a slower pace than expected (47.6 versus a consensus 47). Market activity was reduced on Monday due to the holiday in the United States. EUR/USD The Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices jumped 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations of 0.4%. The annual eurozone HICP remained at 5.3% against a forecast of 5.1%. However, the data did not cause any surprise as the core index decreased in line with expectations from 5.5% to 5.3% y/y. After the report, European Central Bank Vice President Guindos stated that the new ECB forecasts would show that inflation prospects had not changed significantly over the summer, although economic prospects had deteriorated. The data indicates a decrease in economic activity in the third and possibly fourth quarters, and the rate decision in September is still open for debate. Earlier on the same day, ECB representative Schnabel (a hawk) stated that underlying inflationary pressure remains high, but economic activity has noticeably decreased. In her opinion, monetary policy remains a topic of discussion at every meeting, so she could not offer a view on what should happen this month. Thus, there is no clear position from the ECB. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde was scheduled to speak, as well as Lane and Panetta, and on Tuesday, Lagarde will speak again with Schnabel and Guindos. Investors are eyeing the speeches for clues on the ECB's plans. If something different from the market consensus on this issue is voiced, increased volatility is inevitable. The net long position on the EUR decreased by 0.4 billion to 21.1 billion over the reporting week, with positioning remaining bullish. However, the trend toward selling the euro is becoming increasingly noticeable. The price remains below the long-term average and is falling again.     A week ago, we anticipated that EUR/USD would attempt a shallow correction after a pronounced two-month decline. This attempt took place, but then the bears attacked, and the euro fell to the recent low of 1.0764, failing to break it on the first attempt. We assume that after a brief consolidation, the downward movement will resume, the lower band of the channel will not hold, and the euro will move towards the nearest target of 1.0634. The dynamics will depend primarily on the stability of the US economic recovery and the Federal Reserve's future course of actions. GBP/USD Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill noted that services price inflation has become less favorable recently and that the UK is facing the effects of "second-round" effects (i.e., wage-driven) and that the Committee needs to see through the job aimed at suppressing inflation. Pill referred to two scenarios, the first of which involves a succeeding increase in rates followed by a rapid decrease, and the second involves maintaining high interest rates for an extended period. In his opinion, the profile of the inflation trajectory in both cases will be almost identical, but personally, he leans towards the second approach due to risks to financial stability. In any case, markets are anticipating a rate hike in September to 5.5%, which is already priced in, but a higher rate level appears increasingly unlikely. The net long position on GBP decreased by 0.6 billion to 4.1 billion over the reporting week, and the price dropped sharply.     Within the framework of a short-term correction, the pound rose above the resistance area of 1.2680/90, which we identified in the previous review as a likely level for a sell-off, but after the correction, it went down as expected. We assume that the sell-offs will intensify, the support at 1.2545 will not hold, and the long-term target of 1.2290/2310 remains relevant.  
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Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Signals for UK Traders

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2023 14:49
Early in the European session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,935, below the 21 SMA, and above the uptrend channel formed since August 17. A slight movement and consolidation are observed. The price of gold is trading sideways due to the Labor Day holiday in the US.   We expect that during the American session, there will be a technical correction in gold due to overbought conditions and it could reach the 200 EMA. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that since August 29, gold has been stuck within an overbought zone which represents a greater bearish potential for the next few days. However, we could expect gold to rally only if it trades above the zone of 1,928 (200 EMA) to 1,941 (21 SMA). Then, we could expect it to approach 5/8 Murray located at 1,953 again. If bullish force prevails, the instrument could overcome this level and reach 1,968 (6/8 Murray). Gold is still bullish. It means if it bounces above 1,935 in the next few hours or even if a technical bounce occurs around the 200 EMA at 1,928, it could be seen as an opportunity to resume buying. If this scenario comes true, the metal could reach 1,941 (21 SMA) and 1,953 (5/8 Murray) and will be seen as an opportunity to buy. Conversely, if gold falls and consolidates below 1,928, we could expect it to reach 1,921 (3/8 Murray), 1,906 (2/8 Murray), and even the psychological level of 1,900. The bullish outlook for XAU/USD could be cancelled if it falls below 1,930-1,921. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy above 1,928 with targets at 1,937 and 1,953. The uptrend channel is serving as support and we expect gold to resume its bullish cycle from this level.    
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Unlocking EUR/USD Trading: Strategies, Tips, and Analysis for UK Traders

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2023 14:45
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The test of 1.0790, which occurred on Monday afternoon, coincided with the decline of the MACD line from zero, prompting a signal to sell. However, normal downward movement did not occur due to low market volatility caused by the US holiday Data on service and composite PMIs, as well as PPI in the eurozone, lie ahead, and they could lead to a further drop in EUR/USD provided that the reports show a downward revision. This means that market players should be inclined more to short positions, especially in the morning. If sellers do not show activity after updating the monthly lows, it will be more appropriate to consider long positions.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0788 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0829. Growth may occur after hawkish statements from the ECB and strong statistics in the eurozone. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0760, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0788 and 1.0829. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0760 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure will increase in the event of poor PMI data. However, when selling, traders must ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0788, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0760 and 1.0722.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
GBP/USD Trading Analysis: Strategies for Success Amid Volatility

GBP/USD Trading Analysis: Strategies for Success Amid Volatility

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2023 14:42
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2623 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the drop of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that should have led to a price decrease. However, the signal only resulted in losses, as the bearish market did not continue. Data on the UK's service and composite PMI lies ahead, and they could lead to a further drop in GBP/USD provided that the reports show a downward revision. This means that market players should be inclined more to short positions, especially in the morning. If sellers do not show activity after updating the monthly lows, it may be appropriate to consider long positions.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2621 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2671 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur amid very good PMI data. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2570, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2621 and 1.2671. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2570 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2530. Pressure will increase amid weak statistics. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2621, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2570 and 1.2530.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
Market Musings: A Week of Subdued Surprises – What Lies Ahead?

Market Musings: A Week of Subdued Surprises – What Lies Ahead?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2023 14:38
The previous trading week was filled with important events and reports. When looking at the range and movements of both instruments, one might wonder: why was it so subdued? It was reasonable to expect stronger movements and market reactions. To briefly recap, key reports from the United States turned out weaker than market expectations. Even the stronger ones left a peculiar impression. GDP grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, not the expected 2.4%. The ADP report showed fewer new jobs than expected. Nonfarm Payrolls reported more jobs, but the previous month's figure was revised downward. The ISM Manufacturing Index increased but remained below the 50.0 mark. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, which few had anticipated.     Based on all these reports, one might have assumed that it was time to build a corrective upward wave, but on Thursday and Friday, the market raised demand for the US dollar, so both instruments ended the week near their recent lows. So what can we expect this week?   On Monday, the most interesting event will be European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech. On Tuesday, another speech by Lagarde, as well as Services PMIs of the European Union, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We can also expect speeches by other members of the ECB Governing Council. I advise you to monitor the information related to Lagarde's speeches. If she softens her stance, it can have a negative impact on the euro's positions. Wednesday will begin with a report on retail trade in the EU and end with the US ISM Services PMI. We can consider the ISM report as the main item of the week, although the ISM Manufacturing PMI that was released on Friday did not stir much market reaction. It is likely that the index will remain above the 52.7 mark, which is unlikely to trigger a market reaction. On Thursday, you should pay attention to the final estimate of GDP in the second quarter for the European Union. If it comes in below 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the market may reduce demand for the euro. The US will release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. On Friday, Germany will publish its inflation report for August, and that's about it. There are hardly any important events and reports this week. Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are feasible, and I recommend selling the instrument with these targets in mind. I will continue to sell the instrument with targets located near the levels of 1.0637 and 1.0483. A successful attempt to break through the 1.0788 level will indicate the market's readiness to sell further, and then we can expect the aforementioned targets, which I have been talking about for several weeks and months.     The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. There is a risk of completing the current downward wave if it is d, and not wave 1. In this case, the construction of wave 5 might begin from the current marks. But in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the construction of the first wave of a new segment. Therefore, the most that we can expect from this is the construction of wave "2" or "b". I still recommend selling with targets located near the level of 1.2442, which corresponds to 100.0% according to Fibonacci  
Understanding Gold's Movement: Recession and Market Dynamics

Understanding Gold's Movement: Recession and Market Dynamics

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2023 13:53
Gold is traditionally seen by investors as a hedge against inflation. However, it is not inflation that drives the XAU/USD quotes, but recession. In the spring, the precious metal confidently rose towards historical highs amid expectations of an impending downturn in the U.S. economy. However, a stable labor market and positive macroeconomic indicators suggested a soft landing. This led to a collapse in the price of gold during the summer. As autumn approaches, the cooling economy is once again translating into its rise. Disappointing statistics from the U.S. are a reason to buy gold. The weaker the data, the less likely the Federal Reserve will implement its June forecast and raise the federal funds rate to 5.75%. Regardless of how much Fed Chairman Jerome Powell argues otherwise in Jackson Hole.   Furthermore, once a tightening monetary policy cycle ends, a dovish pivot usually follows. Monetary expansion creates a favorable environment for XAU/USD. Dynamics of the federal funds rate and gold     In this respect, the sharp decline in consumer confidence from the Conference Board in August and the continued peak in job vacancies and layoffs in the U.S. labor market in June are alarming signs for the U.S. economy and great news for gold enthusiasts. The chances of the Fed raising borrowing costs in 2023 have once again dropped below 50%, which adversely affected the dollar and allowed XAU/USD to counterattack. In essence, asset managers who reduced their net short positions on precious metals to their lowest levels since mid-March were mistaken. Aswere investors who withdrew money from ETFs for 13 weeks in a row. They were betting on the highest yield of U.S. Treasury bonds in over a decade. However, as soon as the U.S. macro data began to deteriorate, U.S. debt market rates declined, and XAU/USD quotes went up.   Dynamics of market expectations on the Federal Reserve rate   What's next? Gradual cooling of the labor market, a sharp reduction in excess savings, and mortgage rates rising above 7% paint a picture of new cracks in the U.S. economy. The tightening of the Fed's monetary policy occurs with a temporary lag. The more time that passes since the beginning of the cycle, the more painful the monetary restriction will be. Under such circumstances, recession risks will increase again.   In the end, the markets will return to the original conditions that existed in the spring and pushed gold to $2,075 per ounce. However, there is another scenario. The U.S. economy will continue to pleasantly surprise; the likelihood of forming a new inflation peak increases, as do the chances of raising the federal funds rate to 5.75%. Technically, on the daily chart of the precious metal, there is a "Double Bottom" pattern. Thanks to this, gold broke above the EMA and has the opportunity to continue its rally towards the fair value of $1,962 per ounce. As long as prices hold above $1,929, traders should focus on buying.    
Gold Trading Analysis: Technical Signals and Price Movements

Gold Trading Analysis: Technical Signals and Price Movements

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2023 13:31
Early in the European session, gold is trading around 1,936.52, below the high reached at 1,938.13, and below 4/8 Murray. Yesterday, the US consumer confidence data showed a worsening of sentiment. This survey displayed concerns among consumers about the prices of groceries and gasoline in particular. This negative data for the US dollar affected Treasury yields which caused a strong rally in gold, breaking the 200 EMA located at 1,925.     According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is trading within an uptrend channel. It is expected to continue moving there until it reaches the daily resistance zone located at 1,943. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the Eagle indicator reached the 95-point area which signals an imminent technical correction. It is likely to happen in the next few hours if XAU/USD falls below 4/8 Murray. The metal could reach the 200 EMA located at 1,925 and could even drop as low as 3/8 Murray at 1,921.   Given that the trend remains bullish, we could expect a rally in the next few hours and gold could continue its rise. In case of a break above 1,945, gold could reach 5/8 Murray located at 1,953. This level could serve as a strong rejection. Up to that level, the instrument is considered overbought which could also be seen as a clear signal to sell. On the other hand, if gold falls below 1,937 (4/8 Murray), we could see a clear signal to sell which will give us an opportunity to take profits around the bottom of the uptrend channel located at 1,917. The daily pivot point is located at 1,930.   If gold trades around this price level of 1,930, we could expect an accumulation or consolidation in the next few hours. Below 1,930, we could see a clear signal to sell. Conversely, above this level, a technical bounce could be triggered. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 1,937. In case there is a pullback around 1,943, we could sell with the target at 1,920. The Eagle indicator is in an overbought zone which supports our bearish strategy.  
Fed Officials Shift Focus to Inflation Amid European and British Currency Upside Momentum

Fed Officials Shift Focus to Inflation Amid European and British Currency Upside Momentum

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2023 15:48
While the European currency and the British pound are trying to gain upside momentum to continue their bullish corrections initiated at the end of last week, Fed officials have shifted their focus from interest rates to inflation, particularly its target level. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin stated that the US central bank could lose credibility if it were to consider changing its 2% inflation target before achieving that goal. "It's not like 2% is some magical unicorn of a number that we could never hit," he said at an event hosted by the Danville Pittsylvania County Chamber of Commerce in Danville, Virginia. Barkin, who doesn't vote on monetary policy decisions this year, did not express his opinion on when he believes rate cuts might start. According to him, criteria that might allow for a reduction in rates include monitoring when inflation cools month to month and how consumer demand, which remains at a fairly high level, stabilizes. A recent monthly survey of 68 economists conducted August 11-16 showed that no one expects the US central bank to cut rates until the second quarter of next year. This is three months later than the July estimate. Barkin also noted that the greater-than-expected easing in inflation in June could signal that the US economy is heading for a "soft landing," returning to price stability without a dmamging recession. At present, the regulator's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures index — added 3% in June from a year earlier, marking the smallest increase in over two years. This is well below last year's figure of 7% when Fed representatives began the most aggressive policy tightening campaign in a generation. Some leading economists have repeatedly noted that central banks should not keep monetary policy so tight. Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, believes that regulators should stop tightening policy, especially after inflation drops to 3%. Harvard University Professor Jason Furman, who was chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017, even called for the Federal Reserve to consider raising the inflation target. Notably, last month, the Fed raised the key interest rate to a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Now, especially after the Jackson Hole symposium, the debate has shifted from how high rates need to go to how long they should remain elevated  
GBP/USD Eyes Further Gains as Pound Advances Against Dollar

Pound Trades Higher Amidst Modest Rebound and Economic Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2023 15:47
The pound traded higher on Monday. And even though the growth was hardly impressive, it was still tangible. This is in the absence of influential economic releases and generally impersonal results from the Jackson Hole symposium. In general, all this growth can be seen as a blatant rebound after the pair sharply fell at the beginning of the previous week. Speaking of today, the only thing worth paying attention to is the number of job openings in the United States, which is expected to fall by 12,000.   There are two possible explanations for this figure. Firstly, there are no more available workers in the job market, and employers can't find new employees required for business expansion and development. The second explanation is that businesses are swiftly creating enough new jobs to meet the labor market's needs. As we can see, both explanations are diametrically opposed to each other. Therefore, we shouldn't expect this report to have an impact on the market. In general, this report typically goes unnoticed. So, the market situation will generally remain unchanged.     During a technical pullback, the GBP/USD pair returned to the lower band of the 1.2650/1.2800 sideways channel. Afterwards, it traded near the base of the bearish cycle. On the four-hour chart, the RSI is moving in the lower area of the indicator, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which is consistent with the current movement. The MAs are not intertwined. Outlook Falling below the 1.2650 level may favorably impact the volume of short positions. However, a downtrend will only start once the price stays below the 1.2550 mark. The bullish scenario will come into play if the price holds firm above the 1.2650 level. In this case, the pair will move sideways again. The complex indicator analysis points to a pullback in the short-term and intraday periods.
Market Insights: Dollar Position Shifts and Central Bank Speeches Drive Currency Trends

Market Insights: Dollar Position Shifts and Central Bank Speeches Drive Currency Trends

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2023 15:45
The value of the net short dollar position fell by $2 billion to -$14.3 billion over the reporting week, according to CFTC data. Most currencies had minor changes, except for the Japanese yen, which is rapidly being sold off. Furthermore, futures for most commodity currencies, as well as for oil, copper, and gold, went through a bearish correction. This points to growing concerns about a global recession. At the same time, it indicates that the US dollar is currently the market's main favorite, and that it is logical for the dollar to strengthen.   Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole did not provide any new information. Powell stuck to his stance, reiterating the message that the US central bank is prepared to continue raising the funds rate if necessary, and that this policy will remain restrictive until there's compelling evidence that inflation is approaching the Bank's 2% inflation target. Powell also remarked that the current restrictive policy will put downward pressure on economic activity, hiring and inflation.   However, he warned that if the economy continues to grow above trend, it could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy. Overall, Powell's speech essentially reaffirmed that the Fed still relies on data and will act cautiously. This week, the market will focus on the US non-farm employment figures, the US ISM Manufacturing Index, China's PMI, and eurozone inflation for August. EUR/USD European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also spoke in Jackson Hole. Her speech mainly focused on structural changes affecting monetary policy, but without any hints of changing the current ECB strategy. The eurozone inflation report for August will be released on Thursday, where it is expected that inflation will fall from 5.3% to 5.1%, and core inflation will drop from 5.5% to 5.3%. Since the ECB heavily relies on data, this report might lead to a surge in volatility if the figures significantly deviate from forecasts. The net long position for the euro decreased by 0.3 billion over the reporting week, standing at 21.5 billion. Positioning remains firmly bullish. At the same time, the price is still below the long-term average, and there are almost no signs of an upward reversal.   A week earlier, we expected a test of the support level at 1.0830; the euro fell even lower to the channel's lower band at 1.0767. From a technical standpoint, an attempt to build a bullish correction seems likely, with the resistance area being at 1.1010/50. At the same time, we see a downtrend in the long-term period, so the option of a shallow correction followed by an attempt to break down from the correction channel seems plausible, in this case we can expect the euro to move towards the previous local low of 1.0634.   GBP/USD GfK's long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased five points to -25 in August. All five measures were up in comparison to last month's announcement. Even though the overall figure remains sharply negative, hopes for an improvement in household finances are returning to the positive territory.   The Major Purchase Index is up eight points, which is a good thing, as the advance is potentially better news for retailers. However, it simultaneously indicates that inflation deceleration remains uncertain, as a sharp rise in demand fuels price growth and contradicts the Bank of England's plans to reduce consumer demand. Potentially, the situation favors the growth of the UK economy, but it also supports fears that the BoE will raise rates to a higher level than the market expects.   The pound has a chance to revive its growth as soon as the market re-evaluates interest rate forecasts. The net long position for GBP increased by 0.6 billion to 4.7 billion over the reporting week. Speculative positioning is firmly bullish, but the price is also falling. The main reason for such an imbalance is the situation in the debt market, where UST yields have considerably stronger prospects than British bond yields.   In the previous review, we assumed that the likelihood of a bullish correction has increased, but the long-term trend remains bearish. As of Monday morning, this forecast remains valid. The moderate decline that started in July increases the chances of a technical correction, but fundamental markers indicate that the pound will depreciate further. If a correction develops, we see a resistance area at 1.2680/90, where sell-offs may resume. The long-term target shifts lower to the support area at 1.2290/2310.  
Analyzing Central Bank Statements: Powell vs. Lagarde and Their Impact on EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Analyzing Central Bank Statements: Powell vs. Lagarde and Their Impact on EUR/USD and GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2023 10:01
While we've understood Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's potential rhetoric, what about European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's statement? That's much more complicated. The ECB's rate is below the Fed's, yet inflation in the European Union is higher. This single factor suggests that the ECB should agree to additional tightening. However, in recent months, we've repeatedly heard that a pause is needed. A pause doesn't mean the end of the tightening process, but, in a manner of speaking, its final stretch. If Lagarde hints at such a scenario in her speech, the euro will dip even further in the market.     The second crucial factor is the state of the European economy. GDP has been stagnant for almost four quarters, and PMIs keep falling. As a result, every new rate hike will push the European economy into an even deeper hole. It's important for the ECB to maintain a balance between the rate and the economy. Every subsequent ECB meeting is now a mystery. Some members of the Governing Council believe in another rate hike, while others insist on a pause. Lagarde is set to guide the market on Friday. In my opinion, the chances of a dovish stance from Lagarde is much higher. Even if she announces that the current course will be maintained, it doesn't mean all members of the Governing Council will support her stance. From this perspective, the Fed appears to be a more cohesive entity, so the preliminary verdict is as follows: Powell's hawkish stance is more likely, while Lagarde's is "conditionally-hawkish".   This means a further decline for the EUR/USD. As for the GBP/USD, a lot hinges on the 1.2618 mark. A successful attempt to break through it will signal the market's readiness to continue selling, regardless of Powell's remarks in Jackson Hole. Based on all the above, I don't expect the market mood to change on Friday. Both instruments might start forming corrective upward waves, but so far, there are no signs for either. Hence, it's too early to talk about a strong increase in demand for the euro and the pound.     Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are quite realistic, and with these targets in mind, I advise selling the instrument. The a-b-c structure appears complete and convincing. Therefore, I advise selling the instrument with targets set around the 1.0788 and 1.0637 marks. I believe that the bearish segment will persist, and a successful attempt at 1.0880 indicates the market's readiness for new short positions. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend segment. There is a risk of ending the current downward wave if it is wave "d" and not "1". In that case, wave 5 could start from current levels. However, in my opinion, we are currently seeing the construction of a corrective wave within a new downtrend segment. If this is the case, the instrument will not rise much above the 1.2840 mark, and then a new downward wave will commence. We should brace for new short positions.  
GBP/USD Analysis on 30-Minute Chart: Sideways Channel and Trading Signals

GBP/USD Analysis on 30-Minute Chart: Sideways Channel and Trading Signals

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2023 09:55
Analyzing Thursday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair fell to the lower band of the sideways channel, and this time the pair seems set to break through it. The pound sterling has already consolidated below the 1.2620 level, but it is still relatively weak. Nevertheless, the fact that even after the pair rebounded from this level on Wednesday, it did not aim for the upper band of the channel but returned to the lower one, indicates a possibility of bringing back the downtrend and an exit from the consolidation phase. There were two reports that could influence the pair's movement. Neither was good enough to propel the dollar by 100 points. This is another factor suggesting a potential revival of the downward movement. This is what we're counting on. We certainly don't expect the pound sterling to surge anytime soon. But who knows what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will reveal to the market on Friday...   GBP/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. Midway through the European trading session, the pair settled below the 1.2688 level, which should have been taken as a signal for a short position. Subsequently, the price rebounded from this level, surpassed the 1.2653 mark, bounced off it from the bottom, and descended to the 1.2605-1.2620 area. The price did not form a buy signal at midnight, the short positions should have been closed manually. The profit stood at about 60 pips, which is an excellent result. But Thursday's movement was quite commendable.   Trading tips on Friday: On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to tread within a sideways channel. We're still leaning towards a further decline in the British pound, believing it's currently overbought and unjustifiably pricey. However, the price hasn't left the consolidation phase yet, so there might be a new rebound from the 1.2620 level, which can push the pair's growth. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2457, 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Friday, there's nothing particularly noteworthy slated in the UK. Investors will be expecting to listen to Powell's remarks in the Jackson Hole symposium.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    
Understanding the Factors Keeping Market Rates Under Upward Pressure

Global Bond Yields Dip on Soft PMI Data; Focus on USD/CAD and USD/JPY Trends

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2023 09:52
Global bond yields have noticeably fallen in the last 24 hours after softer-than-expected preliminary PMI data. A significant drop in activity has been noted in the eurozone's services sector, especially in Germany. This reduces the chances of the European Central Bank raising rates in September and weighs on the euro. On Thursday, the market will focus on the report on durable goods orders and the weekly unemployment benefits. USD/CAD Retail sales in Canada showed weak results, leading to a decline in yields of short-term Canadian government bonds and a decrease in the CAD exchange rate.       At the same time, the pace of growth in average wages remains high, as the labor market supply lags behind demand. To curb inflation, there needs to be a swift deceleration in wage growth, which is only possible in conditions of a saturated labor market or a general economic slowdown. Another route is an increase in productivity, which remains low with no signs of improvement yet. The net short position on CAD increased by CAD 799 million for the reporting week, reaching CAD -845 million. Positioning is bearish, and the price is moving upwards.   A week earlier, we assumed that the upward movement would progress, and the main target is the upper band of the channel at 1.3690/3720. This target remains relevant. The consolidation is due to technical reasons rather than fundamental ones, and after the consolidation or minor correction concludes, we expect to see further growth.   We perceive support in the middle of the channel at 1.3360/80, but a potential decline to this zone before turning upwards seems unlikely. USD/JPY The core inflation rate (excluding fuel and food prices) in July accelerated from 4.2% to 4.3%, indicating that the Bank of Japan's cautious policy hasn't yielded significant results yet. The BOJ is the only one among major central banks continuing an ultra-soft policy, based on the assumption that inflation largely has an imported nature and will decrease as soon as global energy prices stabilize and the previously disrupted supply chains of goods and raw materials are restored       Such an approach might be justified, but the growth in core inflation indicates that there's more to it, and the Bank needs to be very cautious in choosing its next steps. The Ministry of Finance plans to allocate 28,142.4 billion yen to service the national debt in the 24th fiscal year, which is 2,892.1 billion yen more than in the 23rd fiscal year. The rate used to calculate JGB bond servicing costs remained at 1.1% for seven years, from the 17th to the 23rd fiscal year. If the Bank of Japan begins to raise the accounting rate, the calculated rate for servicing will also be increased for the first time in 17 years. Currently, there are no problems in servicing the national debt, but by the end of the 22nd fiscal year, the outstanding volume of JGBs amounted to a staggering 1,027 trillion yen. If Japan's economy continues to grow, increasing tax revenues will allow the debt to be serviced without significantly increasing borrowing.   However, if the global economic crisis intensifies, an increase in the BOJ's rate will lead to a rapid increase in the government's debt servicing expenses. For now, we must assume that any hints at an interest rate hike will lead to the yen's growth, complicating the debt servicing situation due to a deteriorating trade balance and reduced budget revenues. The Japanese government fears this scenario, hence any comments on monetary policy will continue to be very cautious. In the current circumstances, the yen is more likely to depreciate than strengthen. The net short position on JPY was slightly adjusted by 300 million, to -6.952 billion, with positioning decidedly bearish. The price is above the long-term average, the trend remains bullish, but the chances of an extended consolidation or a shallow correction has increased.     We expect an uptrend from the USD/JPY, with the upper band of the channel at 147.80/148.10 as the target. The risk of a deeper correction to the middle of the channel at 142.50/80 has increased, but the long-term trend remains bullish, and there's no reason to anticipate a reversal at the moment.  
EUR/USD Analysis: Continuing Corrections Amidst European Economic Woes

EUR/USD Analysis: Continuing Corrections Amidst European Economic Woes

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 13:44
The EUR/USD currency pair moved upwards and downwards over the past day. Such a movement does not surprise us, as we have repeatedly mentioned that the current move to the south is fairly weak, and corrections and pullbacks occur quite frequently. So it's not surprising that the euro initially dropped and then increased.     Overall, it continues to decline, just not very rapidly or hastily. Yesterday showed us what many had realized long ago. The European economy is just shy of sliding into a recession. For several quarters, GDP indicators have been teetering on the brink of negative values. But what can one expect when the European Central Bank regularly raises its rate? It's worth noting that the GDP is going through tough times with a not-so-high key rate, especially when compared to rates in the UK and the US, where they are much higher.   While the British economy is also struggling, the American economy is growing briskly, giving the dollar a strong advantage. We will discuss business activity indices. For now, it's worth noting that the downward trend for the pair continues, but the CCI indicator went into the oversold zone yesterday. This is a strong buying signal, so we can expect a stronger upward correction soon. Especially since, on the 24-hour timeframe, we are still looking for a confident breakthrough of the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, the pair continues its correction within the global upward trend, but the main movement can resume anytime. What are the fundamental reasons for this? There aren't any. However, it's important to remember that the forex market doesn't always move strictly with fundamentals and macroeconomics.     The European economy is sliding into the abyss. The service sector in the European Union and Germany has fallen below the "waterline." If the manufacturing sector has been in the negative business activity zone for over a year, the service sector entered it in August. Now, both sectors in Germany and the EU are below the key level of 50.0, which does not bode well for the European economy. For instance, business activity indices in the US could be in better shape but still higher than in the EU or Germany.   Hence, we can only state the obvious: US statistics continue to outperform European ones. It's worth noting that the American currency has been falling for almost a year now. This happens when the Federal Reserve's rate rises faster and stronger, and the US economy appears much more stable and confident than the European one. Recognizing this fact leads us to believe that the European currency is extremely overbought and unjustifiably expensive. Based on this, we anticipate a further decline in the European Union's currency.   This week, we are awaiting the speeches by Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde. Although we think both officials will only provide a little significant information, the market might still grasp certain hints. Both leaders hint at a pause in September; if one doesn't, it might support their country's currency. Given the sharp decline in business activity in the European Union, we believe the likelihood of "dovish" rhetoric from Christine Lagarde is much higher. But the Federal Reserve has also adopted a "two meetings – one hike" policy, so Powell is unlikely to discuss the need for immediate tightening without seeing the August inflation report.       The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of August 24 is 65 points and is characterized as "average." Therefore, we anticipate the pair to move between levels 1.0809 and 1.0939 on Thursday. A downturn in the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a resumption of the downward movement.   Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.0803 S2 – 1.0742 S3 – 1.0681   Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.0864 R2 – 1.0925 R3 – 1.0986     Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair currently maintains a downward trend. New short positions should be considered with targets at 1.0803 and 1.0742 in case of a downward reversal in the Heiken Ashi indicator or a price rebound from the moving average. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the moving average, with targets at 1.0939 and 1.0986.   Explanations for illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The current trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should proceed. Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel in which the pair will operate in the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Signals and Trends

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Signals and Trends

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 13:35
Yesterday, the pair formed several good signals to enter the market. Let's analyze what happened on the 5-minute chart. In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.0870 as a possible entry point. Growth and false breakout of this level generated a sell signal, and the pair fell by more than 60 pips. During the US session, safeguarding the support level at 1.0808 and weak US data produced a buy signal. As a result, EUR/USD managed to compensate for all morning losses and rose by more than 50 pips.   For long positions on EUR/USD: Softer-than-expected preliminary US PMI data exerted downward pressure on the dollar and the euro strengthened in the second half of the day. Obviously, there's a lot of market manipulation, making the situation increasingly tense before the Jackson Hole symposium. Yesterday's data made it clear: if the Federal Reserve continues its tight policy stance, the economic situation will only worsen. This has further confused market participants, who were expecting hawkish statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In the absence of EU reports in the first half of the day, I expect EUR/USD to trade within the channel. Therefore, it is advisable to trade on a dip following a false breakout near the low of 1.0849, which is in line with the bullish moving averages. An immediate resistance target is set at 1.0889, formed on Tuesday.   A breakout and a downward test of this range will strengthen demand for the euro, suggesting a bullish correction around 1.0928. The ultimate target is found at 1.0958, where I will be locking in profits. If EUR/USD declines and bulls are idle at 1.0849, the bear market will persist. Only a false breakout around the next support at 1.0827 will signal to buy the euro. I will initiate long positions immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.0804, aiming for an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.   For short positions on EUR/USD: The sellers lost all their advantage yesterday and now they need to start from the beginning. Today, to maintain the bearish momentum, sellers will have to assert their strength at the new resistance of 1.0889. The pair may test this level soon. The absence of economic reports will help the bears with a false breakout of this level and will lead to another descent towards the 1.0849 support. However, only a breakout below this range, followed by an upward retest, will generate another sell signal, paving the way to the low of 1.0827, where I expect big buyers to emerge in hopes of building the lower band of the new ascending channel. The ultimate target is seen at 1.0804, where I will be locking in profits. If EUR/USD moves upward during the European session and lacks bearish activity at 1.0889, the bulls may try to re-enter the market. In such a scenario, I would go short only when the price tests the new resistance at 1.0928 that was formed yesterday. Selling at this point is possible only after a failed consolidation. I will initiate short positions immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.0958, considering a downward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.     COT report: The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for August 15 shows a notable increase in long positions and a drop in short positions. These figures already factor in the crucial US inflation data, which brought back some buyers to the market. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released last week also indicated that not all committee members are aligned with the idea of raising interest rates to combat inflation. This keeps the chances of the euro's recovery alive, especially following the Jackson Hole symposium happening later this week where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. His address might shed light on the central bank's future policy direction. It is important to note that the recent decline in the euro seems to be appealing to traders. The optimal medium-term strategy under current conditions remains buying risk assets on a dip. The COT report highlights that non-commercial long positions increased by 4,418 to stand at 232,466, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 5,634 to 72,603. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions surged by 1,125. The closing price was lower, settling at 1.0922 compared to 1.0981 the previous week.     Indicator signals: Moving averages: Trading is taking place around the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty. Please note that the time period and levels of the moving averages are analyzed only for the H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If EUR/USD declines, the indicator's lower border near 1.0825 will serve as support.   Description of indicators: • A moving average of a 50-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart; • A moving average of a 30-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA with a 12-day period; Slow EMA with a 26-day period. SMA with a 9-day period; • Bollinger Bands: 20-day period; • Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders; • The non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.    
GBP/USD Analysis: Intraday Signals, Technical Levels, and COT Report Insights

GBP/USD Analysis: Intraday Signals, Technical Levels, and COT Report Insights

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 13:21
Yesterday, the pair formed several good signals to enter the market. Let's analyze what happened on the 5-minute chart. In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.2726 as a possible entry point. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range generated a great sell signal, resulting in a 35-pip drop. A similar scenario with 1.2689, following weak PMI reports, produced a sell signal and the pair fell by 40 pips. During the US session, protecting the monthly low around 1.2627 and weak US reports generated a great buy signal. As a result, the pair rose by 50 pips. Selling from 1.2679 turned out to be a failure, but a breakout and a downward retest of 1.2679 was another buy signal, making it possible to gain 40 more pips.     For long positions on GBP/USD: Today brings some mid-tier data from the Confederation of British Industry, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on market volatility, so I expect the pair to remain under pressure. For this reason, I am not in a hurry to open long positions: only after a false breakout near the new support level at 1.2706, formed at the end of yesterday, will generate buy signal in hopes of updating the nearest resistance at 1.2733, also formed at the end of yesterday's European session. A breakout and consolidation above this range will reinforce the pound sterling, allowing it to reach the 1.2761 high. The ultimate target remains the area of 1.2797 where I will be locking in profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no buying activity at 1.2706, the pound will be under pressure, but will continue to trade within the sideways channel. In this case, only the defense of the 1.2679 area and its false breakout would give a signal for opening long positions. I will open long positions immediately on a rebound from the monthly low of 1.2646, keeping in mind a daily correction of 30-35 pips.   For short positions on GBP/USD: The sellers lost all their advantage yesterday and now they need to start from scratch. Only an unsuccessful consolidation at 1.2733 after UK data will produce a sell signal with a prospect of falling to the intermediate support level at 1.2706, which was formed yesterday. A breakout of this level and its upward retest would significantly dent the bulls' positions, offering a chance for a more substantial decline towards the low of 1.2679. The ultimate target is the low at 1.2646 where I will be locking in profits. In this case, buyers can try to build the lower band of the new ascending channel. If GBP/USD moves upward during the European session and lacks bearish activity at 1.2733, which is possible given how aggressive the buyers were even after such a large sell-off yesterday, only a false breakout near the next resistance at 1.2761 would provide an entry point for going short. If there is no downward movement there, I would sell the pound right on a rebound from 1.2797, keeping in mind an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.   COT report: The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for August 15 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. Traders built up positions after the UK GDP report, which was better than economists' expectations. US inflation cooling also had an impact on the balance of power, supporting the pound, as well as persistent core pressure in the UK. Federal Reserve officials will hold their annual Jackson Hole symposium later this week, which could lead to even more strengthening of the British Pound in the short term. The focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech about US monetary policy. As before, the optimal strategy is to buy the pound on dips, as the difference in the policies of the central banks will affect the prospects of the US dollar, putting pressure on it. The latest COT report indicates that long positions of the non-commercial group of traders rose by 7,302 to 90,541, while short positions jumped by 3,334 to 39,553. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 607. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.2708 compared to the prior value of 1.2749.     Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is taking place around the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market trend. Please note that the time period and levels of the moving averages are analyzed only for the H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If GBP/USD falls, the indicator's lower border near 1.2646 will serve as support.   Description of indicators: • A moving average of a 50-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart; • A moving average of a 30-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA with a 12-day period; Slow EMA with a 26-day period. SMA with a 9-day period; • Bollinger Bands: 20-day period; • Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders; • The non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.    
Assessing EUR's Approach: Inflation Test and ECB Hawkish Stance - 29.08.2023

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Within Lateral Channel Amid Volatility and Macro Uncertainty

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 13:15
  The GBP/USD currency pair fell by almost 150 points yesterday following the release of business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors of the European Union and the United Kingdom. While only the European indices affected the euro, the pound was influenced by both the European and British indices. This explains the pound's more significant drop, which offset all its losses by the end of the day. Now, if you look closely at the illustration above, you'll see that despite the sharp decline on Wednesday, the pair still sits within the lateral channel of 1.2634–1.2787. Yesterday, it touched the lower boundary of this channel for the third time, predictably rebounding from it, and now it may rise back to the 1.2787 level. Notably, this movement doesn't necessarily require any specific fundamental or macroeconomic background - the pair is in a flat trend, which means the movements are random. Thus, the technical outlook remains unchanged from the previous day despite the high volatility. However, one thing does concern us.   The CCI indicator entered oversold territory yesterday, dropping quite deep. Such signals are typically strong. Although the pair might rise to the mentioned level of 1.2787, it won't remain flat forever, and the chances of a more significant upward movement are slightly higher than yesterday. On the 24-hour time frame, there's no change. The pair still hasn't settled below the Ichimoku cloud, so the upward trend remains intact, and an upward move could resume anytime. As on many previous occasions, the pound may see a minor pullback. Even though we see no reason for the British currency to continue its rise, we must admit that there are still no strong signals indicating a trend change in the long term. The August UK manufacturing business activity index dropped from 45.3 points to 42.5.   The corresponding index for the services sector fell from 51.5 points to 48.7. Consequently, all business activity indices are now below the "waterline" – the 50.0 mark. Hence, we can anticipate further deterioration in other macroeconomic indicators and expect the Bank of England to take a pause. As we've repeatedly stated, the position of the British regulator is unenviable. Inflation remains very high, economic indicators continue to decline, and rates are rising. However, they can't rise indefinitely. The market seems to interpret the macroeconomic backdrop very one-sidedly, seemingly believing in the perpetual tightening of monetary policy in the British Isles. In our opinion, this is a mistake, but as they say, one cannot argue with the market. This week, there are virtually no significant events left. Today, a more or less important report on orders for durable goods in the US will be released, and tomorrow, Jerome Powell will speak. In essence, there's only one question regarding the head of the Federal Reserve, and we won't get an answer.   After inflation in the States accelerated for the first time in 14 months, the rate will be raised in September. However, speaking confidently about it without the August inflation report doesn't make sense.     The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair for the last five trading days is 90 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Thus, on Thursday, August 24, we expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.2634 and 1.2814. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a new upturn in the lateral channel.   Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2695 S2 – 1.2634 S3 – 1.2604   Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2726 R2 – 1.2756 R3 – 1.2787   Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair in the 4-hour timeframe remains above the moving average, but overall the trend is flat. It is possible to trade now on a rebound from the upper (1.2787) or lower (1.2634) boundaries of the lateral channel, but reversals may occur before reaching them. The moving average can be crossed frequently, which doesn't signify a trend change.   Illustrations explanations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is currently strong if both are pointed in the same direction. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term tendency and the direction in which trading should be conducted. Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) – the likely price channel the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  
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Navigating Thursday's Macroeconomic Landscape: US Data and Trading Insights

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 13:10
Overview of macroeconomic reports   On Thursday, no significant reports lined up for the UK, the European Union, or Germany. The US will publish reports on initial jobless claims and durable-goods orders. Unemployment claims is a relatively weak indicator simply because it is published weekly, and deviations from forecasts are rare. Since there are no deviations, there is no market reaction. Durable goods orders are more important as it reflects the change in purchase volumes of expensive category goods, such as cars, real estate, or major appliances. But the same thing applies here, it is important for the values to deviate from forecasts. If there is none, there's also no reaction. If there is, then we can expect a strong market reaction.   Overview of fundamental events There is absolutely nothing to highlight among Thursday's fundamental events. There are no speeches from officials of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. However, the Jackson Hole Symposium is about to begin. Nonetheless, all the most important speeches are scheduled for Friday, and today, there's not much to focus on.     Bottom line On Thursday, beginners might only focus on the two US reports. We don't know if they will trigger a market reaction, but at the same time, there are no other events. The movement patterns of the two main currency pairs are unlikely to change. For the euro, it's a downtrend, and for the pound, it's a flat trend. Main rules of the trading system: The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading. Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually. On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance. Comments on charts Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now. The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    
EUR/USD Movement Analysis: False Breakthrough and Volatility Ahead of Powell's Speech

EUR/USD Movement Analysis: False Breakthrough and Volatility Ahead of Powell's Speech

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2023 12:54
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro broke through the key support level at 1.0834. By the end of the day, the euro had risen by 17 points. The nature of this movement suggests that this breakthrough was false. This morning, the price continues to rise above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator continues its upward turn. Market participants are concerned that tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm the idea of a strong American economy and hint at another rate hike(possibly by 0.50%).   The concern arises from the fact that seemingly obvious things might be interpreted differently by the Fed itself, implying that there might be no further tightening. Generally, the Jackson Hole conference doesn't discuss specific issues, such as a rate hike in a month or two, so there will be opportunities for speculation in interpreting Powell's words. Considering the increased volatility of the EUR/USD pair, it might reach the target range of 1.0924/42 regardless of the tone set by the Fed chair. The question is about the euro's medium-term perspective.   On the four-hour chart, following the false downward movement, the price returned above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator entered the positive territory. An uptrend in the short-term, and the target range of 1.0924/42 is in sight. Consolidating above this range will open up the next target at 1.1012.  
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EUR/USD Currency Pair Analysis: Dominant Trend, Rate Hikes, and Monetary Policy Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2023 13:09
  Yesterday, the EUR/USD currency pair rose to its moving average line but almost immediately rebounded and began a stronger decline. This decline eloquently demonstrated who currently dominates the market. Traders shouldn't be misled by the movement toward and potentially beyond the moving average – this line is close to the price (due to low volatility) and can touch it almost daily. However, as we can see, the first attempt to rise above the moving average failed. Importantly, this cannot be blamed on strong macroeconomic data for the dollar or the fundamental backdrop. Technically, nothing has changed. The pair updated its local minimum yesterday, meaning the downward trend remains.   Thus, expecting the European currency to fall is the most logical under the current circumstances. As we have repeatedly stated, there have been no reasons for the euro to grow for a long time. The ECB increasingly signals a potential pause in tightening, and some experts do not anticipate more than one rate hike in 2023. This means the ECB rate will remain much lower than the Federal Reserve. Demand for the dollar will increase since, at present, one can earn much more from bank deposits and treasury bonds in the US than from similar instruments in the European Union. Additionally, inflation in the EU is higher, while it has already dropped to 3.2% in the US. Besides, it should be noted that the Federal Reserve can also raise its rate again.   It has far better opportunities for tightening than the European Union. However, we mentioned several months ago that the ECB is constrained in its monetary moves as it needs to consider the interests of all 27 member countries, some of which are economically weak and cannot withstand overly strict monetary policies. Lagarde is unlikely to protect the euro from falling. At this time, the macroeconomic background is irrelevant. It might lift the euro, but we advocate continuing the pair's decline. On Friday, speeches from Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell are scheduled. If we are mistaken in our assessment of rate changes in the US and EU, the chairpersons of both central banks can convey the true information to the market. However, the symposium in Jackson Hole is not where Lagarde and Powell will be candid and make sensational announcements. However, a few hints might suffice for the market. The Fed's position is now even less critical than the ECB. If the Fed's rate doesn't increase in September, it will in November. On the other hand, if the ECB pauses in September, it will find itself in a much less favorable position since its rate is significantly lower than the Fed. Hence, ultra-hawkish rhetoric is required from Lagarde for the European currency to start growing again. On the 24-hour TF (Time Frame), the price has settled below the Ichimoku cloud, but this isn't the case. We are looking at the Senkou Span B line at the 1.0862 level, and there needs to be a clear and confident consolidation below this level. Nonetheless, we also didn't witness a strong upward recoil after this level was tested, meaning the quote decline might continue at a moderate pace.     The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of August 23 is 64 points and is characterized as "average." Consequently, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0794 and 1.0922 on Wednesday. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a new upward correction phase. Near Support Levels: S1 – 1.0803 S2 – 1.0742 S3 – 1.0681   Near Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.0864 R2 – 1.0925 R3 – 1.0986   Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair currently maintains a downward trend. For now, staying in short positions with targets at 1.0803 and 1.0794 is advisable until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upwards. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the moving average, with targets at 1.0986 and 1.1047.   Illustration Explanations: Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. The current trend is strong if both are pointing in the same direction. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should proceed. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI Indicator – Its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.  
US Treasury Yields Surge: Implications for Global Markets and Economies

US Treasury Yields Surge: Implications for Global Markets and Economies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2023 13:07
US Treasury yields continue to rise, with 2-year bonds exceeding 2% for the first time since 2009, the 10-year rate at its highest since 2007, and 30-year T-bonds setting a record.   On the one hand, the increase in Treasury yields indicates a decrease in risks, as a sell-off in bonds means a sell-off in risky assets. On the other hand, the burden on the US budget increases, and inflation expectations can grow again at any time. The risks on the path of inflation moving to the target level remain high.   The main threat to New Zealand and Australia is China's economic slowdown. Financial stress is increasing, and there are signs that China is heading towards a full-blown financial-economic crisis. The Chinese authorities have tools to prevent such an outcome, but a slowdown in GDP growth is almost inevitable, resulting in a decrease in foreign trade volumes. NZD/USD As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the rate at 5.5% at the meeting that ended last week. The tone of the accompanying statement unexpectedly gained an additional hawkish tilt due to a slight increase in the rate forecast (by 9bps). The GDP and inflation forecasts changed little, but the updated OCR track from 0.25% indicates that the RBNZ does not consider the current level as sufficiently restrictive as it did three months ago.     The risks for the New Zealand economy are diverse and to some extent offset each other, but in some cases, they intensify. High net migration is a good thing for the labor market, as the increase in labor supply will raise the unemployment rate but simultaneously allow wage growth to be contained, an essential criterion in the fight against inflation. At the same time, domestic demand is getting weaker, despite the influx of migrants. Exports fell by 14% YoY in July, while a decrease of only 4% was expected.   Imports fell by 15% (forecast 8%), partly due to lower global commodity and goods prices. On Thursday, a quarterly retail trade report will be published, which will serve as the basis for the forecasts for consumer demand. The net short position in the NZD increased by $123 million during the reporting week to -$145 million. Market positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish bias. The price is certainly falling, with no signs of a reversal.   A week earlier, we identified the support zone of 0.5870/5900 as a target, the pair has reached this target, and from a technical perspective, a bullish correction is possible. The nearest target is 0.5975, followed by 0.6010. At the same time, the primary trend remains bearish, so in the long term, after the corrective phase has ended, we expect another wave of sales, with the target being the support zone of 0.5830/50.     AUD/USD Australia's economic calendar for the week is calm, with no significant economic reports to take note of. The next week will be much more saturated - on August 29, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock will speak, and we can look forward to several reports, including the monthly Consumer Price Index for July, retail sales, and investment dynamics for the 2nd quarter, which will allow a preliminary assessment of GDP growth rates. The RBA rate forecast assumes another increase in November, as the RBA will likely respond to rising business costs, rent, and energy prices. Inflation is declining more slowly than in the United States. The net short position in the AUD increased by an impressive $620 million over the reporting week and reached -$3.45 billion, with market positioning firmly bearish. The price is below the long-term average but has lost momentum, suggesting an attempt at a corrective phase.  
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Economic Calendar Highlights for August 21 and Trading Plans for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2023 15:00
Details of the Economic Calendar on August 21 Monday, as usual, was accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. No significant statistical data were published in the European Union, United Kingdom, or United States.   EUR/USD trading plan for August 22 Stable maintenance of the price above the level of 1.0900 may have a positive effect on the euro rate. However, until we see a breach of the 1.0950 level, we cannot assert with absolute confidence that sellers have eased their pressure and that the correction movement will no longer resume in the market.     GBP/USD trading plan for August 22 In this situation, traders prefer a breakout strategy, as this approach can clearly indicate the subsequent direction of market prices. A decline will become relevant if the price consistently stays below the 1.2650 level. This condition could contribute to the continuation of a downward corrective movement. A rise assumes a gradual recovery of the pound sterling's value relative to the current corrective movement. A primary technical signal of potential growth may appear if the price holds above the 1.2800 mark.   What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.
EUR/USD Fragile Amidst Strong US Data and Bleak Eurozone News

GBP/USD Analysis and Trading Signals: Technical Insights and Forecast

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2023 14:56
Yesterday, the pair formed several good signals to enter the market. Let's analyze what happened on the 5-minute chart. In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.2726 as a possible entry point. A decline and false breakout at this mark generated a good buy signal. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips. During the US session, a false breakout and retracement below 1.2753 gave a sell signal. As a result, the pair fell by 25 pips.     COT report: The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for August 15 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. Traders built up positions after the UK GDP report, which was better than economists' expectations. US inflation cooling also had an impact on the balance of power, supporting the pound, as well as persistent core pressure in the UK. Federal Reserve officials will hold their annual Jackson Hole symposium later this week, which could lead to even more strengthening of the British Pound in the short term. The focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech about US monetary policy. As before, the optimal strategy is to buy the pound on dips, as the difference in the policies of the central banks will affect the prospects of the US dollar, putting pressure on it. The latest COT report indicates that long positions of the non-commercial group of traders rose by 7,302 to 90,541, while short positions jumped by 3,334 to 39,553. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 607. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.2708 compared to the prior value of 1.2749.     For long positions on GBP/USD: Today, the UK will publish reports on public sector net borrowing and the CBI's industrial trends orders. In the event of weak reports, it would be best to act on a decline and false breakout near the new support level at 1.2751. Just below this level are the bullish moving averages, which will form a good entry point for long positions leading to an upward move targeting the resistance at 1.2783. The pair has not been able to get out of this since August 17. A breakout and a downward retest of this range will form an additional buy signal and will reinforce the pound sterling, allowing it to reach a new high of 1.2812. If the pair goes above this range, it might break towards 1.2847, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no buying activity at 1.2751, especially if the UK publishes weak data, the pair will continue to trade within a sideways channel with the bulls having the upper hand. In this case, only the defense of the 1.2723 area and its false breakout would give a signal for opening long positions. I will open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.2689, keeping in mind a daily correction of 30-35 pips.   For short positions on GBP/USD: Bearish traders did their best yesterday, but buyers are clearly interested in a lower value of the pound. In the first half of the day, it is important to keep the pair below 1.2783. A breakout of this level will produce a sell signal with a prospect of falling to the support at 1.2751, formed yesterday and where a real battle will unfold. A breakout of this level and its upward retest will create an entry point for short positions with a target of 1.2723. The ultimate target is the low at 1.2689 where I will be locking in profits. If GBP/USD trends upward during the European session and if no selling activity is observed at 1.2783, amid strong UK reports, the bulls will maintain control of the market, and will start an upward correction. In such a scenario, a false breakout near the next resistance at 1.2812 would provide an entry point for going short. If there is no downward movement there, I would sell the pound right on a rebound from 1.2847, keeping in mind an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.     Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is taking place above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which suggests that GBP/USD will recover. Please note that the time period and levels of the moving averages are analyzed only for the H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.     Bollinger Bands If GBP/USD grows, the indicator's upper border near 1.2780 will serve as resistance. If GBP/USD falls, the indicator's lower border near 1.2735 will serve as support.   Description of indicators: • A moving average of a 50-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart; • A moving average of a 30-day period determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA with a 12-day period; Slow EMA with a 26-day period. SMA with a 9-day period; • Bollinger Bands: 20-day period; • Non-commercial traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders; • The non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.  
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Gold Price Analysis: Technical Outlook and Potential Scenarios

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2023 14:52
Early in the European session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,894.45, above the 21 SMA, and below the 200 EMA located at 1,904. On the H1 chart, we can see that gold broke the bearish trend channel formed since August 8 and it is expected to consolidate above 1/8 Murray located at 1,890 in the next few hours.     If this scenario occurs, then the instrument could reach the 200 EMA located at 1,904 or go up to 2/8 Murray located at 1,906. 10-year US Treasury yields are trading above 4.3% as investors expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates in September 2023. Bonds and gold are inversely correlated. Since these are overbought, a fall in bonds is expected in the next few days, so it will be seen as an opportunity to buy gold.   We can see that gold is overbought according to the 1-hour chart. Hence, we could expect a technical correction to occur in the next few hours towards the 1,888 area and then from there, a technical rebound could follow.   In case the XAU/USD pair continues to rise, we could expect it to reach 1,906. We could use this opportunity to sell. The eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal. We expect gold to reach the 1,888 level and this will give us an opportunity to buy at a low price. Conversely, a sharp break below the low reached so far around 1,885, could be seen as a continuation of the downward movement. Therefore, the instrument could reach 1,875 and finally 1,867.  
Market Trends and Currency Positioning: USD Net Short Position, Euro and Pound Analysis - 22.08.2023

Market Trends and Currency Positioning: USD Net Short Position, Euro and Pound Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2023 14:49
The net short position in USD grew by $490 million to -$16.272 billion over the reporting week after a strong correction a week earlier. The decline is largely related to long positions on the euro, and in terms of other major currencies, the notable trend is selling across all significant commodity currencies (Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars, and also the Mexican peso). The yen and franc are slightly doing better, i.e., there is demand for safe-haven currencies and a sell-off in commodity currencies. Since long positions in gold have decreased by $4.5 billion, we can expect increasing demand for the US dollar.     PMIs for the eurozone, the UK, and the US will be published on Wednesday, which can significantly influence the rate forecasts of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve. Last week, we witnessed a clear uptrend in bond yields, suggesting increased demand for risk amid more upbeat economic reports. At the same time, we see a sharp deterioration in China's economy, which, on the contrary, points to slowing demand. This dilemma may be resolved after the release of the PMIs, so we can expect increased volatility.   EUR/USD The final estimate confirmed that the euro area annual inflation rate was 5.3% in July 2023, with core inflation unchanged at 5.5%. Since there are no seasonal factors that could explain the price increase at the moment, it would be best to assume the most obvious explanation - price growth is supported by broad price pressures in the growing services sector. Stubborn inflation supports market expectations that the ECB will raise rates in September, and this increase is already reflected in current prices. The strong labor market is also in favor of a rate hike. After a sharp decrease a week earlier, the net long position in the euro grew by $1.275 billion, putting the bearish trend into question. The settlement price is below the long-term average, giving grounds to expect a continuation of the euro's decline, but the momentum has noticeably weakened.   A week earlier, we assumed that the bearish trend would continue. Indeed, the euro consistently passed two support levels, but did not reach the 1.0830 level. The resistance at 1.0960, which the euro can reach if a correction develops, is still considered in the long term. We assume that the trend remains bearish, and the 1.0830 level will be tested in the short term. GBP/USD Inflation in July fell from 7.9% to 6.8%. This is mostly due to the fall in the marginal price of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) from 2500 pounds to 2074. Without this decline, inflation would have still fallen, but much less - to 7.3%. Despite the sharp decline, inflation remains at a very high level, and further falls in the marginal price of energy carriers are unlikely. The NIESR Institute suggests that, among the possible scenarios for future inflation behavior, we should choose between "very high", assuming an average annual inflation of around 5% over 12 months, and "high persistence", which is equivalent to an annual level of 7.4%. Needless to say, both scenarios imply inflation higher than in the US, so the likelihood of a higher BoE rate remains, leading to a yield spread in favor of the pound. These considerations do not allow the pound to fall and support it against the dollar, while against most major currencies, the dollar continues to grow. After three weeks of decline, the long position in GBP grew by $302 million to $4.049 billion. Positioning is bullish, the price is still below the long-term average, but, as in the case of the euro, an upward reversal is emerging.       In the previous review, we assumed that the pound would continue to decline, but UK inflation pressure remains stubborn, which changed the rate forecast and supported the pound. A correction may develop, and the nearest resistance level is 1.2813. If the pound goes higher, the long-term forecast will be revised. At the same time, we still consider the bearish trend, and the chances of restoring growth are high, with the nearest target being the support area of 1.2590/2620.  
Weak July Performance: Polish Retail Sales Disappoint Amid Economic Challenges

Tips for Trading Ethereum (ETH)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 14:24
Tips for trading ETH The price test at $1,677 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the negative zone, confirming the correct selling entry point for Ethereum. As a result, there was a drop to nearly the support level of $1,634, which was missed by a hair's breadth. It seems the pressure on Ethereum may persist, and we should anticipate further sharp declines in the trading instrument, given the decrease in buying incentives and market optimism since last week. The fact that ETH buyers missed out on $1,815 sooner or later had to lead to what we currently observe on the chart. It is better to be ready for the instrument's further decline, relying on scenarios 1 and 2.     Buy signal Scenario 1: One can buy Ethereum today at the entry point near $1,684 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward $1,707 (thicker green line on the chart). Near the level of $1,707, it is better to close long positions and open short ones. Ethereum is unlikely to grow today, especially following such a substantial sell-off that triggered numerous stop-loss orders. Important! Before buying ETH, make sure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it. Scenario 2: You can also buy Ethereum today in the case of two consecutive price tests at $1,673. This may limit the downward potential of the trading instrument and lead to an upward reversal. We can expect ETH to grow towards the opposite levels of $1,684 and $1,707.   Sell signal Scenario 1: You may sell Ethereum today after $1,673 is breached (red line on the chart), leading to a swift drop in the trading instrument. Bears see their key target at $1,654, where it is better to close short positions and open long ones. Pressure on Ethereum may surge at any moment. Important! Before selling ETH, make sure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario 2: One can sell Ethereum today in the case of two consecutive price tests at $1,684 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This may limit the trading instrument's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. We can also expect a decline toward the opposite levels of $1,673 and $1,654.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument. Thick green line - assumed price for placing take-profit orders or locking in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument. Thick red line - assumed price for placing take-profit orders or locking in profits manually, as further decline below this level is improbable. MACD Indicator. When entering the market, adhere to overbought and oversold zones.   Important Novice cryptocurrency market traders must exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without proper stop orders, you can quickly deplete your deposit, especially if you're not using money management and are trading with substantial volumes.   Remember that successful trading necessitates a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.  
UK Public Sector Borrowing Sees Decline in July: Market Insights - August 22, 2023

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 14:22
EUR/USD   Higher Timeframes Bearish players slowly and cautiously broke through the daily cloud last week, reinforced by the weekly medium-term trend (1.0898), and closed the week below the encountered supports. Consolidation in the bearish zone relative to the cloud and continued decline opens new perspectives and opportunities. The nearest supports now are 1.0835–05 (monthly short-term trend + final level of the weekly cross). Further attention will be directed to the support of the monthly medium-term trend (1.0725) and the achievement of the daily target for breaking the Ichimoku cloud. A change of mood and a return to the market of bullish players will bring back the relevance of the attraction and influence of the weekly medium-term trend (1.0898), and above, the market will face resistance from the lower border of the daily cloud and the daily short-term trend (1.0954). There is a fairly wide resistance zone from levels of different timeframes above (1.0986 – 1.1001 – 1.1055 – 1.1112).     H4 – H1 As of writing, the main advantage on the lower timeframes belongs to the bearish players. However, the pair is in the correction zone, using the central pivot point (1.0871) as the current support. The next resistance is the weekly long-term trend (1.0896). This level is key and is responsible for the current balance of power. Consolidation above and a reversal of the moving average can transfer the main advantage to the bullish side. The next targets for the intraday rise will be the resistance levels of the classic pivot points (1.0920 – 1.0945). If the correction stops and the pair updates the low of the correction (1.0846), the downward trend will be restored. Targets for the continuation of the decline will be the supports of the classic pivot points (1.0822 – 1.0798). GBP/USD   Higher Timeframes Last week, the pair once again tested the weekly support (1.2629) for strength and again marked the slowdown and rebound. The daily cloud continued to support the bullish players. As a result, the pair consolidated above the daily short-term trend (1.2715) in the daily cloud. The unpassed and left-behind levels (1.2629 – 1.2597) still retain their value and continue to serve as the nearest important supports for this area. Just as the resistance zone 1.2816 – 1.2865 – 1.2893 – 1.2940 (levels of the daily Ichimoku cross + weekly short-term trend + lower border of the monthly cloud) has not changed its position and significance. H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, there is uncertainty. The key levels today have joined forces around 1.2721–28 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). A prolonged stay above the key levels has allowed the bullish players to retain some advantage, thus forming a bullish target for breaking the H4 cloud (1.2798 – 1.2818). In the development of directional movement, the classic pivot points will come into play. The bullish players will benefit from resistances (1.2767 – 1.2805 – 1.2844), while the bearish players will need supports (1.2690 – 1.2651 – 1.2613).     ***   The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend      
Gold Market Sentiment and Analyst Forecasts: Bond Yields and China's Impact

Gold Market Sentiment and Analyst Forecasts: Bond Yields and China's Impact

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 14:14
The latest weekly gold survey shows Wall Street analysts are bearish for the current week, while sentiment among retail investors is roughly balanced. Analysts believe that the rise in U.S. bond yields, which reached a new 15-year high on Thursday, remains a significant restraining factor for gold.   The slowdown in China's economy also deters investors. According to Edward Moya, Senior Market analyst at OANDA, the yield on Treasury bonds is at a level that supports the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and this is a difficult environment for gold. However, his opinion on gold prices for the current week is neutral, as he believes that bond yields are likely close to their peak, and gold sales dynamics are probably slowing down. For selling pressure on gold to persist, bond yields would need to continue rising. But most analysts believe a decline in gold prices is more likely.   Presumably, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole on Friday, will maintain his hawkish stance. And rates will remain high going forward. Last week, 16 Wall Street analysts participated in a gold survey. Among the participants, ten analysts, or 63%, were bearish for the current week. Two analysts, or 13%, were optimistic, while four analysts, or 25%, took a neutral stance. In online polls, 941 votes were cast. Of those, 415 respondents, or 44%, expect price increases. Another 386, or 41%, favor price decreases, while 140 voters, or 15%, voted for a neutral position.       Despite this, Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, is bullish on prices for the next few months. He believes that investors should not ignore short-term price dynamics, as it is rare to see such a drop without any continuation, adding that this week may see a decrease in prices, but this will not affect long-term growth. James Stanley, market strategist at Stone X, said even if Powell takes a neutral stance in Jackson Hole, gold will find it hard to change its bearish technical outlook. Likely, the technical support level will remain at $1875.  
Market Sentiment and Fed Policy Uncertainty: Impact on August Performance

Market Sentiment and Fed Policy Uncertainty: Impact on August Performance

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 14:03
It seems that August this year will remain the worst August month in history. Since early 2023, positive sentiment in the markets has increased significantly on a wave of expectations that inflation this year will fall in the US to the target level of 2% and, in turn, the Federal Reserve will stop further rate hikes. In practice, it became clear by August that such expectations are still not justified. What is the underlying reason for the deterioration of market investor sentiment? The theme of inflation in the US, which is projected onto other countries and financial hubs, and the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy proceeding from this, remains the crucial negative factor.   Recently, a slight rebound was recorded in the annual rate of the consumer price index (CPI) from 3.0% in June to 3.2% in July that assured the US central bank to raise interest rates by another 0.25%. Then, in Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and some policymakers of the rate-setting committee signaled another increase in the federal funds rate, although before that the regulator had refrained from raising rates. Of course, investors could not ignore such prospects in monetary policy, which led to a protracted downward correction in the stock markets and enabled growth in Treasury yields. At the same time, the ICE dollar index continues to move in a sideways channel, albeit slightly declining since the beginning of this year. Since mid-July, the index has notably recovered after a local breakout of a strong support level of 100 points. So, the investor community lack understanding about what will happen to inflation in America, whether it will continue to grow or resume its decline. Besides, investors are discouraged by regular threats from Fed policymakers about the possibility of further interest rate hikes.   Therefore, a fog of uncertainty descended on the markets, which set the stage for the decline in local and global stock indices. We believe that until the publication of August data on consumer inflation, which will serve as a benchmark for the Federal Reserve, the current market environment will not change. In this case, we expect a lower corrective decline in the US benchmark stock indices.   Treasury yields are likely to continue their growth. However, but at the same time, the ICE US dollar index may remain in a rather narrow range of 101.00-105.00 until the end of the month, unless, of course, Powell will not tell the markets anything new regarding the prospects for monetary policy at the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which will be held later this week. An unexpected message may come as a big surprise for investors, since in general they do not foresee anything from the Federal Reserve's leader yet.     Intraday outlook USD/JPY The currency pair is consolidating above the level of 145.00. If the price falls below this level, there is a possibility of a limited decline towards 144.20. XAU/USD The price of gold remains under pressure due to the general negative market sentiment and expectations of another Fed rate hike, but the instrument may grow locally if it does not slip below 1,884.00. In this case, we should expect gold to rise to 1,900.50. 8
In-Depth Analysis of GBP/USD 5M: Volatile Trading within a Sideways Channel

In-Depth Analysis of GBP/USD 5M: Volatile Trading within a Sideways Channel

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 13:57
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   On Friday, GBP/USD, unlike EUR/USD, snapped higher. Volatility was slightly higher than for the euro, but it doesn't matter, as the pair has been trading in a flat for several weeks. This is evident on all timeframes, so the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop is currently taking a back seat. To be precise, there was no fundamental backdrop last week, and most reports did not support the British pound. Therefore, the pair could have extended the decline that began a month and a half ago, but the market clearly took a break, so we did not see any interesting movements. The UK released its retail sales report, which doesn't require much discussion. The pair dipped lower as sales undershot forecasts. In the second half of the day, the market received a technical signal to grow, so by the end of the day, the pound had offset all morning losses. As already mentioned, one trading signal was formed. At the beginning of the US session, the price rebounded from the area of 1.2693-1.2700, and the pair rose by 30 pips. Traders could earn these 30 pips since there were no more signals until the end of the day. Therefore, the deal had to be closed manually. At least, the loss on the EUR/USD pair was offset. COT report:     According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders opened 7,300 long positions and 3,300 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,000 positions in a week. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 11 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term.   There are no drivers for opening new long positions. Slowly, sell signals are emerging on the 4-hour and 24-hour charts. The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips, from its absolute lows reached last year, which is a significant increase. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, there has been no logic in the pair's movements for quite some time. The market perceives the fundamental background one-sidedly, ignoring any data in favor of the dollar. The Non-commercial group of traders has a total of 90,500 long positions and 39,500 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling, and the market has recently begun to pay attention to short positions.   Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade within a sideways channel. The channel has slightly expanded, so the flat hasn't ended. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator are currently weak, but from time to time they still work well with the market. Due to the flat, we have recorded the last values of the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. However, false and inaccurate signals can still form around them. The pair reached the upper band of the channel on Thursday, so now we can expect the pound to fall. On August 21, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2520, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2693, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2807) and Kijun-sen (1.2700) lines can also be sources of signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Monday, no important events or reports lined up in the UK or the US. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to, so we will probably see weak and mixed up movements.   Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147  
GBP Outlook: Moderate Strength Amid Light Calendar

GBP/USD Correction and Rhetoric Outlook: ECB vs. Fed

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 13:39
  The GBP/USD currency pair exhibited no noteworthy movements on Friday. The price continues to correct both in the global and local senses. After a double rebound from the level of 1.2634, the pair is aiming for the upper boundary of the sideways channel, i.e., the level of 1.2787. This level has already been reached, so a new round of downward movement within the same channel may begin soon. Since we are currently in a range, trading the pair is inconvenient and inadvisable. While we mentioned that it's better to trade the euro on higher timeframes, in the case of the pound, trading on higher timeframes is not profitable since the pair is not showing any trend movement. Overall, the situation could be more pleasant. A consolidation above the level of 1.2787 could trigger a continuation of the upward correction, which will not break the established concept. Let us remind you that the concept involves a prolonged decline in the British currency. Corrections are integral to any trend, so a slight upward move would not hurt. However, there is still a risk of resuming an illogical and unjustified upward trend that was difficult to explain several months ago. On the 24-hour timeframe, we still do not see a breakthrough of the Ichimoku cloud, so even after the last month's decline, the upward trend has not changed to a downward one. There was virtually no macroeconomic data on Friday, and there will be none today. Volatility for the pound did not exceed 100 points last week, and any value below this level is considered "average." The pound is certainly moving more actively than the euro (which is historically the case), but the range spoils everything.   ECB rhetoric is more important than the Fed This week, there will be even fewer significant events than last week. What can we highlight? Business activity indices? The Jackson Hole symposium, which only starts on Friday? A few speeches by Fed representatives? The U.S. durable goods orders report? All of these are interesting, but what matters is the market's reaction to them. All business activity indices and the durable goods orders report could only provoke a reaction if the actual values differ significantly from the forecasts. Fed representatives' speeches – we observe quite a few of these almost every week. The Fed's policy is currently clear and understood, and it is unlikely that Bowman or Gulsbee will report anything extremely important.   The market does not believe in a rate hike in September or the end of the tightening cycle. A few months ago, Jerome Powell indicated that the regulator was shifting to a "one hike every two meetings" approach, so there should be a pause in September. However, the latest inflation report, showing an acceleration in inflation, suggests we may see at least one more rate hike. And if the August report also shows an acceleration, tightening may occur as early as September. More questions are now being posed to the ECB, for which a brief pause is also expected. If signals start coming from the ECB about even slower tightening, it may be a reason for the European currency to accelerate its decline against the dollar.     The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 84 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Monday, August 21, we expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.2646 and 1.2816. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a downward spiral within the lateral channel.   The nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2726 S2 – 1.2695 S3 – 1.2665   The nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2756 R2 – 1.2787 R3 – 1.2817   Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair in the 4-hour timeframe has secured itself above the moving average, but we are still in a flat market overall. You can trade now based on rebounds from the upper (1.2787) or lower (1.2634) boundaries of the sideways channel, but reversals may occur without reaching them. The moving average may be crossed very often, but it does not signify a change in trend.   Explanations of illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, the trend is strong. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction to trade now. Murrey levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  
EUR/USD Downtrend Continues Amidst Jackson Hole Symposium Anticipation

EUR/USD Downtrend Continues Amidst Jackson Hole Symposium Anticipation

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.08.2023 13:24
The downtrend prevails for the EUR/USD pair, falling for the fifth consecutive week. In mid-July, the pair reached a multi-month high at 1.1276, but then sellers took over, as the dollar strengthened and the euro weakened. Last week, bears managed to settle around the 1.08 figure, but they couldn't stay below the support level of 1.0850 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), even though they tested this target. The driver of the bearish movement was the USD, which strengthened amid mixed inflation data, hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, decent economic reports, and growing risk-off sentiment. The euro obediently followed the greenback, seemingly content with its role as a "follower" rather than a "leader." This week, the focus will be on the dollar, which, in turn, is anticipating the key event of the month. The event in question is the annual economic symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The significance of this event cannot be overstated. The Jackson Hole symposium is often referred to as a "barometer" for the sentiment of central banks in leading countries. As is known, the forum is attended by central bank leaders from major countries (usually at the level of chairmen or their deputies), finance ministers, leading economists and analysts, and heads of the world's largest conglomerates and banking giants. For three days, they discuss pressing issues, crystallize certain signals, and define the main points of further steps.   Typically, the financial elite discusses the most urgent issues at the time. For example, in 2015, the main topic was the crash on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, in 2016 the discussions focused on the consequences of Brexit, and in 2017 the expansion of bond spreads and the next steps of the Fed and European Central Bank were discussed. In 2018, the central topic of the meeting was the trade war between the US and China (or rather its consequences), in 2019, the global trade conflict was discussed again, as well as the impending Brexit. In 2020, the sole topic was the coronavirus crisis, in 2021, the aftermath of the crisis. The key issue discussed at Jackson Hole last year was inflation. It is evident that participants at this week's meeting will also focus on this issue, given the grim macroeconomic news from China. During the three-day symposium, which starts on August 24th, many central bank heads and representatives will speak and may outline their future course of actions in the context of monetary policy prospects. In particular, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday – if he adopts a hawkish stance, the US dollar will get another boost across the market, including against the euro. The latest US data maintains the intrigue on the Fed chair's stance, so we can guarantee the volatility for the EUR/USD pair (as well as other dollar pairs). In short, the recent inflation reports have been somewhat contradictory.   The Consumer Price Index in July showed an uptrend – for the first time in the last 12 months. The indicator rose to 3.2% year-on-year after June's result of 3.0%. However, the core CPI decreased to 4.7% (the lowest level since July 2021). The Producer Price Index was in the "green" – both in annual and monthly terms. The PPI rose by 0.8%, compared to a forecast of 0.3%. The indicator had been steadily declining for 12 months, but it accelerated last month (for comparison, in June 2022 the PPI was at 11.3%, in June 2023, it was already at 0.1%). The core PPI also consistently declined over several months but remained at June's level in July, i.e., at 2.4%. The report on the Import Price Index similarly favored the greenback. According to data published last week, the index in monthly terms was above zero for the first time since April 2023. It is also necessary to recall the latest Non-farm Payrolls, specifically the "green hue" of the pro-inflationary indicator. The level of average hourly wage increased by 4.4% YoY in July, while experts expected a decrease to 4.1% (the indicator has been at 4.4% for four consecutive months). The question emerges - will Powell focus on the acceleration of the CPI and the dynamics of the PPI? Or will the core CPI and the basic PCE index, which showed a slowdown in inflationary processes, be the focus of his speech? According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a quarter point rate hike at the September meeting is currently only 11%. The likelihood of a rate hike at the November meeting is 33%. Powell may reinforce hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's future course of actions if he is concerned about the growth of the aforementioned inflation indicators. In this case, the Fed Chair will trigger a dollar rally, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair may not only fall to the base of the 8th figure but also test the support level of 1.0750 (Kijun-sen line on the daily chart).   However, if Powell focuses on the side effects of aggressive monetary policy (especially in light of recent decisions by rating agencies Moody's and Fitch), the dollar will be under pressure: in this case, EUR/USD buyers may be able to return the pair to the range of 1.0950-1.1030. Of course, apart from the economic symposium, EUR/USD traders will react to other fundamental factors in the background during the upcoming week (PMI indices, IFO, orders for durable goods, secondary housing sales in the US). However, Powell's speech is the main event not only of the upcoming week but probably of the whole of August in general.    
Detailed Analysis of GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart

Detailed Analysis of GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.08.2023 11:48
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   GBP/USD traded higher on Thursday, in contrast to the EUR/USD, which saw growth. Volatility increased slightly, but this doesn't change the fact that the pair is still trading within a sideways channel. The pair could move in any direction within such a channel, so it could be quite chaotic. Since the lower band of this channel was the last target, it makes sense that the pair is now moving towards the upper band. The pair does not need any macroeconomic or fundamental background for this movement. And there wasn't any yesterday, as there was nothing to note except for the neutral report on US unemployment claims. As a result, we are currently observing purely technical movements within the flat. On the other hand, yesterday's technical signals were practically ideal, especially in the first half of the day. The Kijun-sen line needed to be adjusted as it moved to the 1.2700 level during the day. The pair bounced off this level during the European trading session. Subsequently, it started a fairly strong upward move, overcame the Senkou Span B line, and reached the 1.2786 mark, where traders should have taken profit. It was about 60 pips. The rebound from 1.2786 should also have been executed using a short position. The price started to fall, overcame the Senkou Span B line once again, and there were no buy signals. Therefore, short positions should have been closed manually closer to the evening. The profit for them was about 35 pips.   COT report:   According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders closed 8,900 long positions and 6,300 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders fell by almost 2,600 positions in a week. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 11 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term. There are no drivers for opening new long positions. Slowly, sell signals are emerging on the 4-hour and 24-hour charts. The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips, from its absolute lows reached last year, which is a significant increase. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, there has been no logic in the pair's movements for quite some time. The market perceives the fundamental background one-sidedly, ignoring any data in favor of the dollar. The Non-commercial group of traders has a total of 83,200 long positions and 36,200 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling, and the market has recently begun to pay attention to short positions.   Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade within a sideways channel. The channel has slightly expanded, so the flat hasn't ended. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator are currently weak, but they worked very well in the market yesterday. However, false and inaccurate signals may form around them. Today, the pair could rise to the level of 1.2807 or something lower. On August 18, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2520, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2693, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2807) and Kijun-sen (1.2700) lines can also be sources of signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Friday, the UK will release a report on retail sales. Nothing lined up for the UK. Therefore, macroeconomics will not have a significant impact on the pair's movement today either, and the price will likely trade within the sideways channel.   Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.    
Tuesday's EUR/USD Analysis: Chaotic Movements on 30M Chart

Tuesday's EUR/USD Analysis: Chaotic Movements on 30M Chart

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2023 13:52
Analyzing Tuesday's trades: EUR/USD on 30M chart   On Tuesday, EUR/USD was quite chaotic. There was a small upward-sloping line, but even on the 30-minute chart, it's easy to see how often the pair changed direction. In addition to this, the price closed above the descending trendline, and several reports were published in the EU and US, which, although they were not marked as "important," still had some impact on the pair's movement.   Volatility was 56 points, which is very low. As a result, it was a low-volatility day, with chaotic movements, a ton of signals, and mixed economic reports.   The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the EU and Germany turned out to be slightly better than expected. The US retail sales report was also better than expected. There was a slight market reaction, but it only added confusion to the intraday movements. We can't even conclude that an upward correction has started - the trend line was too weak.   EUR/USD on 5M chart   Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. Traders could gain 15 pips on the first buy signal around the 1.0904 level. It should have been closed when the price closed below the 1.0936 level. Based on this sell signal, short positions should have been opened, and subsequently, the 1.0904 level was retested, where shorts should have been closed. A bounce from this level – new longs and another 15 pips of profit. Later on, the pair started to "dance" around the 1.0936 level, forming false signals. They could have resulted in losses, but not all of them needed to be executed. Any two false signals around the same level "blocked" the execution of all subsequent ones. Therefore, the day still ended in profit, albeit a small one.   Trading tips on Wednesday: On the 30M chart, the pair is trading with a downward tendency, and may continue to fall, which, in our opinion, is still the most justified and logical course of events. We don't see any macroeconomic background that would be capable of changing market sentiment this week. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0761, 1.0835, 1.0871, 1.0901-1.0904, 1.0936, 1.0971-1.0981, 1.1011, 1.1043, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1145, 1.1184, 1.1241. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Wednesday, the EU will publish reports on its Q2 GDP in the second estimate, as well as industrial production. This may be sufficient enough to stir some market reaction or none at all.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  
Analyzing Tuesday's GBP/USD Trades: Signals, Levels, and Trading Strategies

Analyzing Tuesday's GBP/USD Trades: Signals, Levels, and Trading Strategies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2023 13:43
Yesterday, the pound/dollar pair formed several entry signals. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what actually happened. In my morning forecast, I turned your attention to the level of 1.2725 and recommended making decisions with this level in focus. Growth and a false breakout at this mark produced a sell signal. As a result, the pair fell by more than 40 pips. In the afternoon, a false breakout at 1.2725 did not provide a good result.     For long positions on GBP/USD: Yesterday's data on the sharp rise in average earnings in the UK only provided temporary support for the pound, afterwards, the pair was under pressure again. Today's UK inflation report turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts, which, as you can see on the chart, is already limiting the GBP/USD decline prospects as high price pressure, especially in the core index, persists. For this reason, long positions will be interesting today, but it is best to act on the downside all the way from the same support level at 1.2688, which is in line with the bullish moving averages. A false breakout on this mark will confirm the presence of big players in the market, which will produce a good buy signal and will lead to a breakout to the resistance at 1.2722. A breakout and consolidation above this range will give the bulls a boost, preserving the chances of building a correction with the next target at 1.2749 - yesterday's high. A more distant target will be 1.2781 where I will be taking profits.   If GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.2688, the pound will be under pressure. In this case, only the protection of 1.2658, as well as a false breakout on this mark, will create new entry points into long positions. You could buy GBP/USD at a bounce from 1.2623, keeping in mind an upward intraday correction of 30-35 pips. For short positions on GBP/USD: The pair is trading within the sideways channel, so bears will become more active, especially at its upper boundaries. An unsuccessful consolidation above 1.2722, the new intermediate resistance level, will produce a sell signal with a prospect of falling to 1.2688. A breakout of this level and its upward retest would significantly dent the bulls' positions, offering a chance for a more substantial decline towards the low of 1.2658. A more distant target will be the month's low at 1.2623 - the bulls' last hope. If GBP/USD grows and there is no activity at 1.2722, which can happen given the inflation report, bulls will not regain full control of the pair, but they will get the chance to start an upward correction towards 1.2749. Only a false breakout at this mark would provide an entry point for going short. If there is no downward movement there, I would sell the pound right on a rebound from 1.2781, hoping for an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.     COT report: The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for August 8th recorded a decline in both long and short positions. Traders have been closing their positions ahead of important UK GDP data, realizing that the Bank of England would continue to raise interest rates, no matter the cost. Good data on the British economy allowed the market to maintain balance, preventing a significant sell-off of the British pound last week, which was triggered by another increase in inflation in the US. However, the optimal strategy is to buy the pound on dips, as the difference in the policies of the central banks will affect the prospects of the US dollar, putting pressure on it. The latest COT report indicates that long positions of the non-commercial group of traders have decreased by 8,936 to 93,239, while short positions fell by 6,394 to 36,219. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 185. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.2749 compared to the prior value of 1.2775.  
ECB Meeting Uncertainty: Rate Hike or Pause, Market Positions Reflect Tension

Analyzing Tuesday's GBP/USD Trades: Volatility, Reports, and Trading Signals

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2023 13:40
Analyzing Tuesday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart   On Tuesday, GBP/USD went through low volatility and messy movements. In general, the pound's movements were the same as those of the EUR/USD pair. The market reaction to the reports was also similar, except that the European ZEW indexes were not related to the British pound. However, it had its own data in the form of reports on unemployment, wages, and unemployment benefit claims. In our opinion, the pound should have fallen not risen in response to the British reports in the first half of the day, as two of the three reports turned out to be worse than forecasts. Unemployment increased, and the number of benefit claims was higher than expected. However, the wage report, which showed a sharp growth rate, tipped the balance. As a result, the pair continued to correct after rebounding from the 1.2620 level, but before that, it was in a sideways channel for two weeks and simply returned to it. We don't expect the pound to start an uptrend. GBP/USD on 5M chart   Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. The pair spent the entire day between the levels of 1.2688 and 1.2748, regularly rebounding from them. Volatility was 78 points. There is no point in analyzing each individual signal, as they were almost identical. Beginners had to decide for themselves whether they wanted to scalp between levels, the distance between which is 30-35 points. As we can see, the price regularly bounced from these levels, which means that none of them was unnecessary. We witnessed such a movement on Tuesday. Since most of the signals turned out to be right, it was possible to earn a decent amount, but we do not see much sense in opening 10 trades with a potential profit of 10 points each.   Trading tips on Wednesday: On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair may be in a flat position. However, we insist that the pound fall, as we still believe it is overbought and unreasonably expensive. Not all of this week's reports may support the dollar, so we may see messy movements in the sideways channel. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2715, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Wednesday, the UK is set to release an inflation report, and this is the main item for the day. If it turns out that inflation is rising or falling more slowly than expected, the pound may jump.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  
ECB Meeting Uncertainty: Rate Hike or Pause, Market Positions Reflect Tension

Challenges Ahead: Examining the Bank of England's Inflation Fight and Economic Deterioration in the UK

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.08.2023 13:30
The Bank of England has raised interest rates fourteen times in a row, but has failed to make significant progress in the fight against high inflation. Moreover, recent reports, some of which were released on Tuesday, show a deterioration in various economic processes in the UK. Let's discuss this in more detail.     Inflation in the UK initially rose more sharply than in the US or EU. The market probably believed that if inflation in the UK was higher, the BoE would raise interest rates longer and stronger. To some extent, this is true since its rate has risen more compared to the European Central Bank. But at the same time, the Federal Reserve's rate is even higher and has every chance of remaining so until both central banks begin easing policies. As we can see, the pound sterling has no advantage in this regard. Unemployment in the UK has increased over the past year from 3.5% to 4.2%.   In other words, it is indeed growing in the UK, unlike in the US, where the indicator remains near its 50-year lows. Wage growth rates have increased from 5.8% to 8.2% in the last five months alone. And the faster wages grow, the higher the chances of a new acceleration in inflation. The last five quarters of the UK's GDP ended with the following results: +0.1%, -0.1%, +0.1%, +0.1%, +0.2%. Let's compare them with the last five quarters in the US: -0.6%, +3.2%, +2.6%, +2.0%, +2.4%. The difference is obvious. If the BoE's rate were now at 3% or 4%, meaning there was room for further rate hikes, the pound sterling could continue to rise based on everything mentioned above. However, the UK interest rate has risen to 5.25%, which is the highest level since 2008.   Its peak was at 5.75% in 2008. Assuming that the rate will not exceed this value, the BoE will raise the rate two more times at most. Theoretically, the central bank could increase it to 6.5-7%, which is clearly required by the current inflation rate, but for now I don't believe this will happen, and the market is unlikely to put such a scenario into prices. Therefore, monetary tightening in the UK is coming to an end, as it is in the US. America has almost achieved its target, and its economy has hardly suffered. The UK cannot boast of the same. I believe that demand for the pound will only decrease.     Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still consider targets around 1.0500-1.0600 quite realistic, and with these targets in mind, I recommend selling the instrument. The a-b-c structure looks complete and convincing. Therefore, I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.0836 mark and even lower. I believe that we will continue to see a bearish trend. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline.   You could have opened short positions a few weeks ago, as I advised, and now traders can close them. The pair has reached the 1.2620 mark. There's a possibility that the current downward wave could end if it is wave d. In this case, wave 5 could start from the current levels. However, in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the construction of a corrective wave within a new bearish trend segment. If that's the case, the instrument will not rise further above the 1.2840 mark, and then the construction of a new downward wave will begin.
Economic Calendar Details and Trading Analysis - August 7 & 8

Economic Calendar Details and Trading Analysis - August 7 & 8

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2023 12:21
Details of the economic calendar on August 7 Monday was traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistical data in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States were not published.   Analysis of trading charts from August 7 The EUR/USD exchange rate dropped below the 1.1000 level again, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. It should be noted that the current movement is characterized as a correction from the medium-term trend peak. Regarding the GBP/USD, the slowing growth rate may also indicate a prevailing bearish sentiment among market participants. It's important to highlight that, according to tactical analysis, there's a three-week corrective move from the local peak of the medium-term trend, during which a slight pullback has occurred. Essentially, the euro and the British pound continue to decline relative to the U.S. dollar, and the current movement can be seen as a temporary deviation from the main trend.   Economic calendar for August 8 The speeches by several representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve System are of particular interest today, as it is expected that no significant economic indicators will be published. EUR/USD trading plan for August 8 If the euro against the U.S. dollar consistently stays below the 1.1000 level, it may lead to an increase in short positions and a further drop to 1.0900. However, if the price holds above the 1.1050 level, traders will consider a bullish scenario. In that case, a subsequent recovery phase of the euro rate is possible, which may conclude the current market correction.   GBP/USD trading plan for August 8 If the quote remains stable below the 1.2700 level, the bearish scenario becomes relevant within the correction framework. This will lead to an increase in short positions and possibly an update of the correction's low. At the same time, a bullish scenario implies a gradual recovery in the value of the British pound relative to the ongoing correction. A primary technical signal for a bullish scenario might emerge if the price holds above the 1.2800 level during the day.     What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.  
Analyzing Monday's Trades: EUR/USD on 30M Chart

Analyzing Monday's Trades: EUR/USD on 30M Chart

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2023 12:19
Analyzing Monday's trades: EUR/USD on 30M chart   On Monday, EUR/USD corrected against Friday's correction. As a reminder, on Friday, the pair started an upward movement after breaking the descending trendline three times. Since the upward movement on that day was strong and sharp, a correction was expected, which we saw on the "quiet" Monday.   From a technical standpoint, the pair has been moving in an ideal manner in the last couple of days. The main question now is whether a new short-term uptrend will begin. Take note that in the medium-term perspective, the euro does not have any reason to rise. The short-term uptrend may simply be a correction on higher time frames. Therefore, the euro could still rise. But in the next couple of months, we believe that it should continue its downward movement.   EUR/USD on 5M chart   On Monday, there were two trading signals on the 5-minute chart and volatility was 54 pips, which is very low. It was quite inconvenient to trade due to such low volatility, but we were lucky to get such trading signals, as they turned out to be false only based on the fact that the pair did not reach the nearest target level. However, with such low volatility, it did not make sense to expect it to reach the target level anyway. The price bounced twice from the area of 1.0971-1.0977. In the first case, it moved up by 12 pips, so the trade should not have been closed at the time when the second signal was being formed. In the second case, the pair moved up by 20-25 pips. Beginners could have made such a profit by closing the trade manually closer to the evening.   Trading tips on Tuesday: On the 30M chart, the pair started to correct, but we still expect it to fall since it is significantly overbought in the long term and also lacks significant reasons to enter a new rally. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0835, 1.0871, 1.0901-1.0904, 1.0971-1.0977, 1.1038, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1145, 1.1184, 1.1241, 1.1279-1.1292. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Tuesday, Germany will release the second estimate of its inflation report for July. In addition to that, Federal Reserve officials will speak. All of these events are considered secondary of importance.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  
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Analyzing Monday's Trades: GBP/USD on 30M Chart

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2023 12:09
Analyzing Monday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     The GBP/USD pair tried to extend its upward movement on Monday, but this was in the absence of influential economic releases so it failed. In addition to that, the US reports from Friday were not weak enough for the dollar to fall further on Monday. Sterling does not have any reason to rise, and the USD does not have any reason to fall either. If it starts a corrective movement, it should be weak and slow. If the pound surges, it may indicate the resumption of the global uptrend, which, from our perspective, is completely illogical. Therefore, we are expecting a correction, followed by a decline. This week, there will be very few important events. The only noteworthy ones are the UK's GDP report for the second quarter and the US inflation report.   GBP/USD on 5M chart   On Monday, several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. The break below the level of 1.2748 occurred overnight, but traders could have opened a short position once the European session started, as the price had not moved far from the formation point by that time. The pound fell by about 20 pips, so the Stop Loss should have been set to breakeven. The second buy signal was formed at the beginning of the US session, around the same level. In this case, the pair moved 25 pips in the right direction. That's what beginners could have gained on Monday. It was a low-volatility day for the pound. Trading tips on Tuesday: On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair broke the short-term downtrend. Now, the pound may correct higher, but we shouldn't expect a strong uptrend. We expect the pound to fall, as we still believe it is overbought and unreasonably expensive. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2538, 1.2597-1.2605, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2801, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993, 1.3043. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Monday, there are no important events or reports lined up in the US and the UK, so we should brace ourselves for another low-volatility day with no trends. The pair may continue its slow upward movement within the corrective phase.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.   2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.   3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.   4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.   5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.   6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.     How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.      
Market Reaction to Eurozone Inflation Report: Euro Steady as Data Leaves Impact Limited

Dangerous Complacency Amidst Eurozone's Economic Resilience: ECB Tightening and USD Strength

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2023 12:05
The resilience of the eurozone's economy breeds complacency. This is an extremely dangerous feeling given the ongoing monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank, which is in effect with a time lag. According to Bloomberg's research, a 425 bps increase in the interest rate since the beginning of the cycle will harm the currency bloc's GDP by 3.8%. Taking into account the negative impact of the energy crisis and the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures, this figure will rise to 5%. It's no wonder that members of the Governing Council are starting to doubt whether monetary tightening should be continued in September, and EUR/USD is falling.     In reality, most investors, according to ING's opinion, still believe that the euro will rise against the US dollar by the end of the year. Bloomberg's expert consensus on the main currency pair stands at 1.12. Moreover, the corrections of 5% in February, 4% in May, and 3% in July-August in EUR/USD indicate the strength of the uptrend. It is becoming more challenging for the bears to push the quotes lower. However, expectations are one thing, and reality is another.   Strengthening the euro requires an improvement in the health of the global economy. Then procyclical currencies will become the favorites. Unfortunately, this is not happening at the moment. Meanwhile, the strength of the US labor market makes the Federal Reserve keep its finger on the pulse. FOMC official Michelle Bowman believes that the central bank will need to raise the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.75%. The US dollar is supported by a favorable external backdrop, such as rising bond yields due to massive Treasury issuances, credit rating downgrades by Fitch, and the start of the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.   At the same time, there is a pullback in stock markets that have been surging for five consecutive months. The worsening global risk appetite is a powerful driver of EUR/USD's decline. In this scenario, investors' demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset increases. The bears have one more trump card up their sleeve.   Despite the stability of the US economy, the business cycle has not been canceled. 67% of investors-respondents of MLIV PULSE believe that by the end of 2024 a recession will hit the US. Moreover, 20% of those polled predict a recession already in the current year. It's as if they don't believe the Fed, which no longer considers a downturn scenario in 2023.       Thus, the euro is currently not living up to expectations, and the weakness of the eurozone's economy could lead to a premature end to the cycle of monetary tightening by the ECB. On the contrary, the US dollar is in demand among investors due to the strength of the US economy, its safe-haven status, and the rally in Treasury bond yields.   Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, the Three Indians pattern continues to unfold. We successfully utilized the retracement by shorting on the bounce from the resistance at 1.1035. We are holding the position and raising it on a breakthrough below the support level at 1.0965    
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GBP/USD Analysis and Trading Signals: Short-Term and Hourly Perspectives

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.08.2023 10:25
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   On Friday, the pound sterling corrected higher after the release of US data. There were three reports, two of which were simply ignored by the market. The decline in the unemployment rate did not save the US dollar from falling, as the market only considered the NonFarm Payrolls, which came in lower than forecast, and the value of the previous month got revised lower.   Therefore, there were grounds for the dollar to fall on Friday. In the UK, there were no important reports or events. The US dollar fell by approximately 105 pips from the daily lows, but if we look at the opening and closing prices of the day, its losses were only 40 pips, and at that moment, they were almost negated. We believe that the pound has no grounds to resume the uptrend.   The trading signals for the pound were almost identical to those for the euro. Traders could use the bounce from the level of 1.2693 to open long positions. Subsequently, the pair broke through the area of 1.2746-1.2762, and it remained above it until the end of the trading session. As a result, the long position could be closed anywhere above the mentioned area, and the profit amounted to at least 70 pips.   COT report: According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders closed 13,300 long positions and 3,800 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders fell by almost 10,000 positions in a week. But in general, it is still rising. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 10 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term.   There are no drivers for opening new long positions and not many technical signals for short positions either. The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips, from its absolute lows reached last year, which is a significant increase. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, there has been no logic in the pair's movements for quite some time. The market perceives the fundamental background one-sidedly, ignoring any data in favor of the dollar. The Non-commercial group of traders has opened 92,100 long positions and 42,600 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling but speculators continue to buy and the pair continues to rise.   Analysis of GBP/USD 1H     On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair has started to correct, but has not yet broken the downtrend. Consolidation below the critical line may signal a resumption of the downward movement. We believe that there are no grounds for the sterling's growth, so we expect the decline to resume. Of course, that doesn't mean that the pair will fall every day. Periods of consolidation, flat movements, and corrections are possible. On August 7, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2520, 1.2598-1.2605, 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2868) and Kijun-sen (1.2734) lines can also be sources of signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Monday, there are no important events or reports lined up in the UK and the US, except for perhaps Michelle Bowman's speech. However, it's a bit of a stretch to consider this event important. Therefore, we expect calm movements akin to a flat.   Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  
EUR/USD Trading Analysis and Tips: Navigating Signals and Volatility

EUR/USD Trading Analysis and Tips: Navigating Signals and Volatility

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.08.2023 09:50
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The test of 1.0961 on Friday afternoon, coinciding with the rise of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of over 40 pips.     Reports on the volume of orders in Germany and industrial output in France and Italy did not help euro rise last Friday. However, weak data on the US labor market favored bullish traders, leading to a sharp increase in EUR/USD during the US trading session. Today, pressure may return on the pair, unless the data on industrial production in Germany and investor confidence in the eurozone show very good values. Although disappointing reports will continue the pair's decline, a lower-priced euro will certainly attract more buyers.   For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0989 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1035. Bullish traders will return to the market in the event of very good reports on the eurozone. However, before buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0960, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0989 and 1.1035   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0960 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0919. Pressure will intensify in the case of weak data from the eurozone. However, before selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0989, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0960 and 1.0919.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.   MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    
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Analysis and Trading Tips for GBP/USD: Navigating Volatility and Signals

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.08.2023 09:45
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2720 on Friday afternoon, coinciding with the rise of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of around 50 pips.     Weak data on the US labor market led to a sharp rise in GBP/USD. However, this did not last long, as already during today's Asian session, the pair fell, compensating for most of Friday's growth. In addition, buyers should not expect much today because only good data on the UK housing price index and confident defense of the level of 1.2705 will there be chances of a rally. For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2736 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2772 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth may occur. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2705, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2736 and 1.2772. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2705 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2673. Pressure will increase with weak data and inactivity around 1.2705. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2736, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2705 and 1.2673.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    
US Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint: Impact on Dollar and EUR/USD Analysis

US Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint: Impact on Dollar and EUR/USD Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.08.2023 09:34
According to the report from the United States Department of Labor, the unemployment rate declined from 3.6% to 3.5%, which, logically, should have pushed the dollar higher. But on the contrary, the US dollar dipped. This is due to the fact that the non-farm payroll rose by only 187,000. Not only was this lower compared to forecasts of 190,000, but the previous figure was also revised downward from 209,000 to 185,000 jobs. In other words, over the past two months, far fewer jobs were created than needed to maintain labor market stability. Considering the population growth rate and the level of economic activity, approximately 250,000 new jobs need to be created monthly. Of course, these numbers will vary significantly from month to month, but if two consecutive months have significantly fewer jobs than this average, how can the unemployment rate decrease at all? This is why the dollar became weaker, as it creates distrust in the official data. And this can trigger a real panic. So, the fact that the dollar became weaker on Friday is nothing but a flight from the risks of uncertainty.     There is no economic data scheduled in the calendar on Monday. Emotions will settle down a bit, and the market will recover slightly. The main result will be a small retracement. During a partial recovery, the EUR/USD pair temporarily rose above the 1.1000 level. However, it failed to stay above this value, and as a result, the price returned below the psychological level. This indicates that the corrective move will continue from the high of the mid-term trend. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving around the 50 middle line, which may signal an increase in the volume of short positions. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intersecting each other, which points to a slowdown in the corrective move.     Outlook In this case, if the price says below the 1.1000 level, it may lead to an increase in selling volumes. To continue the corrective move, the quote needs to stay below the 1.0900 level. As for an alternative scenario, traders may consider an upward move in the recovery process if the price remains above the 1.1050 level. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term period, indicators suggest a downward cycle since the price fell below the 1.1000 mark. In the intraday period, indicators point to the recovery process in the euro. In the medium-term period, indicators signal a slowdown in the uptrend.  
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EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Rate Hike Sparks Euro's Sharp Decline as US GDP Report Adds to Selling Pressure

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.07.2023 15:52
EUR/USD The euro is once again (after 20 days) disrupting the market. The European Central Bank raised its rate by 0.25% yesterday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that this increase may be the last one (similar to the Federal Reserve) in the current tightening cycle. The euro lost 0.95% or 108 pips.   Media reports that such a sharp decline was caused by the US Q2 GDP report, which showed that the economy expanded by 2.4% against the expected 1.8%. In addition, durable goods orders in June added 4.7% (forecast was 1.0%). Only the S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, reflecting expectations of a recession in the US and an expansion in the yield curve inversion in the government bond market.     The volume of yesterday's trades was the largest in the last 4 months, which means there is still potential for further decline. The 1.0924 level is an important support on the daily chart, which the MACD line is approaching. Consolidating below it will initiate a new downtrend in the medium-term. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the negative area. If the euro does not fall below 1.0924, it may rise again, even against unfavorable grounds. We are expecting a significant reversal of the euro that is in sync with the stock market decline (in September).     On the four-hour chart, the situation is bearish: the price is developing below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Consolidating below yesterday's low at 1.0966 opens up the target at 1.0924. Some kind of price convergence with the oscillator supports the euro's consolidation in the 1.0966-1.1012 range  
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Analysis and Trading Tips for GBP/USD: Navigating Market Signals and Key Levels

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.07.2023 15:50
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD Further decline became limited as the test of 1.2940, which happened on Thursday afternoon, coincided with the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero. No other market signal appeared for the rest of the day. Strong GDP data from the US triggered a massive sell-off in GBP/USD, which may continue today if similar positive statistics about the US economy come out. Market players will also not see any reason to buy pound during the European session.     For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2822 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2870 (thicker green line on the chart). An upward correction may occur briefly during the weekend.   However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2774, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2822 and 1.2870. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2774 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2706 Pressure will persist in the case of unsuccessful attempts to break through the daily high.   However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2822, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2774 and 1.2706.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.   Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market.   Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.   And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    
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EUR/USD Pair Faces Turbulence Amidst Conflicting Fundamentals: Traders Await Core PCE Index for Direction

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.07.2023 15:48
The EUR/USD pair has been caught in turbulence amid conflicting fundamental signals, causing the price to move sideways. Market participants still need to unravel this tangle of contradictions to determine the price's direction. Currently, traders are driven by emotions, experiencing a rollercoaster-like ride. The verdict of the Federal Reserve and the US GDP The results of the Federal Reserve's July meeting were not in favor of the greenback. Bulls returned to the 1.1150 resistance level (the Tenkan-sen line on the 1D chart) and tested it. However, when it comes to the overall outcome, it would be more accurate to say otherwise: the market interpreted the results of the July meeting against the US currency, while the Fed's verdict can be viewed from different angles. The US central bank avoided specifics, especially regarding the future prospects of tightening monetary policy. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, everything will depend on what new economic data shows: the September meeting may end with either a rate hike or keeping rates unchanged. Such rhetoric disappointed dollar bulls, as recent inflation reports came out in the "red," reflecting a slowdown in inflation in the US. It is logical to assume that if July's inflation follows the trajectory of June's, the September rate hike will be in question. These conclusions put significant pressure on the greenback – the US dollar index hit a weekly low, declining towards the 100 level. However, the situation changed drastically. Dollar bulls once again saw a "light at the end of the tunnel" thanks to the latest US GDP report. The data significantly surpassed forecasts.   According to preliminary calculations, US GDP increased by 2.4% in the second quarter, with a growth forecast of 1.8%. It is worth mentioning that the first quarter's result was recently revised upwards: the initial estimate showed a 1.3% growth in the US economy, while the final data showed a different result of 2.0%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report (US Department of Commerce agency) indicates that this growth was driven by increased consumer spending, government and local government spending, growth in non-residential fixed investment, private investment in equipment, and federal government spending. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, increased by 1.6% in the second quarter, while government spending increased by 2.6%. EUR/USD sellers are back in action In addition to the GDP report, dollar bulls were also pleasantly surprised by another indicator.   Durable Goods Orders in the US increased 4.7% in June, compared to forecasts of 1.3%. This reading followed the 2.0% increase recorded in May. Orders for durable goods excluding transportation also rose by 0.6% last month. This component of the report also showed a positive outcome, as most experts expected a more modest growth of 0.1%.   As a result, hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's future actions have increased in the market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in September is nearly 30%, whereas after the announcement of the July meeting's outcome, this probability fluctuated in the range of 19-20%. Such an information background contributed to the "revival" of the greenback.   The US dollar index fully recovered all lost positions, rising to the middle of the 101 level. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair plummeted and hit two-week price lows.       The European Central Bank also played its role in this. Following the July meeting, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points but did not announce further steps in this direction.   Similar to the Fed, the ECB indicated that one additional rate hike from the central bank would now depend on key economic data, primarily inflation. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the central bank has "turned off the autopilot" – decisions on interest rates will be made from meeting to meeting and will be based on "inflation forecasts, economic and financial data, and the underlying inflation dynamics."   It is worth noting that after the previous meeting, Lagarde had directly announced the rate hike at the July meeting. Conclusions The latest US reports, as well as the outcomes of the ECB's July meeting, "redrew" the fundamental picture for the EUR/USD pair. There is one more important piece of the puzzle remaining: the core PCE index, which will be published at the start of the US session on Friday, July 28th. However, for another upward reversal, this indicator must deviate significantly from the forecasted value (naturally, in a downward direction), with experts predicting a declining trend to 4.2% (following the May increase to 4.6%).   From a technical perspective, you can consider short positions on the pair after sellers overcome the support level of 1.0950 (Tenkan-sen line on the weekly chart). In such a case, the next bearish target for EUR/USD would be at 1.0850 – the upper band of the Kumo cloud on the 1D chart.  
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The Decline of the US Currency: Market Factors and Speculations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.07.2023 10:34
The demand for the US currency is falling almost every day, based on which many analysts and economists make various guesses and assumptions about the possible reasons. I must say that personally, it makes me cautious. If the problem lies in inflation or monetary policy, then why did we see such a sharp decline in demand for the US currency just last week? If the market factors in certain future events into current prices, then why did the dollar experience such a significant decline this week?     The US inflation report only partially answers this question. As I mentioned before, the demand for the dollar began to decline on Monday, two days before the report was released, and continued to fall on Thursday. On Friday, we didn't even see a bearish correction. Thus, inflation could only have had a slight impact on the overall weakening of the US currency.   A more likely reason is market expectations. If inflation in the US falls to 3%, it not only implies a possible end to tightening measures as early as this month but also a faster transition to a more accommodative policy. At the same time, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may raise rates several more times and maintain them at peak levels much longer than the Federal Reserve, as inflation is significantly higher in the eurozone and the UK. Perhaps this factor is what is causing the dollar's decline. But then another question remains open. How much does the market intend to play out this factor? It is unlikely that the demand for the US currency will decline until inflation in the EU and the UK drops to 3%. I would like to remind you that the US currency has been declining for almost a year.   If inflation had been rising in the EU and Britain throughout this year while falling in the US, it would have made sense. However, the Federal Reserve raised rates just like the ECB and the Bank of England, while inflation has been slowing down worldwide over the past six months. I mean to say that the dollar may be in a less favorable position compared to the euro or the pound, but not to the extent that it is declining. It seems to me that the market, as it loves to do, is preemptively playing out its assumptions.   This means that we can expect new difficulties in interpreting the news background in the future. When the FOMC starts lowering rates, thedollar may unexpectedly begin to rise, as by that time, the ECB and the BoE may have finished tightening. The dollar cannot keep falling in response to any actions by central banks!         Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the uptrend build-up is still in progress, but it can end at any moment. I believe that targets around 1.0500-1.0600 are quite realistic, and I advise selling the instrument with these targets. However, now we need to wait for the completion of the a-b-c structure, and afterwards we can expect the pair to fall into this area. Buying is quite risky. It is risky to buy. The euro takes any opportunity to rise, but the news background for the dollar is not as weak as it may seem.   The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests the formation of an upward set of waves. However, the wave structure has already taken on a five-wave appearance, which means it may be completed. If the attempt to break the level of 1.3084 (from top to bottom) proves unsuccessful, the instrument may continue to rise with targets located around 1.3478 (261.8% Fibonacci extension). A successful breakthrough attempt will initiate a more expected and logical process of building a descending Wave 4 or a new downward segment of the trend with initial targets around the 1.2840 level.    
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GBP/USD Analysis: Friday's Trades on 30M Chart - Flat Market and Sideways Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.07.2023 10:26
Analyzing Friday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     On Friday, the GBP/USD pair traded flat with a slight bearish bias. The new, upcoming, ascending trend line has not been broken. At the moment, the price has only tested it. However, since the market has entered a flat phase, breaking this trend line will not be a strong signal for a trend reversal.   Of course, the British currency cannot continue to rise indefinitely, especially considering the lack of reasons and grounds for such a move. A correction should start sooner or later, but it is extremely difficult to predict when it will start because the market is currently hardly reacting to fundamental and macroeconomic factors, as confirmed by the entire week.   There was only one report on Friday, and it was the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in the US. This indicator unexpectedly showed a much stronger increase than forecasted and... triggered a 20-25 point rise in the dollar. As before, all reports in favor of the dollar were ignored, while any reason to buy the British pound was used to its fullest extent, resulting in a 200% increase.   GBP/USD on 5M chart A huge number of signals materialized on the 5M chart, while the movement was sideways and volatility was only 55 pips, which is very low for the pound. Therefore, almost any level that the price encountered automatically became a source of false signals. Thus, beginners could attempt to execute one or two signals during the European trading session. It is highly likely that the first one resulted in a small loss, while the second one was closed at breakeven when the stop loss was triggered. It was quite challenging to expect other results in a flat market. Trading tips on Monday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to show strong growth despite the Friday flat. Even if the price consolidates below the trend line, it does not mean that a downtrend is brewing, as traders remain bullish, and crossing the trend line during a flat phase is not a strong signal. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2779-1.2801, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3107, 1.3145, 1.3210, 1.3241, 1.3272. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven.   On Monday, there are no important events lined up in the UK or the US, but it is extremely difficult to predict the price movement in conditions of extreme overbought levels and without any news. It could be a correction, a continuation of the rise, or a flat market.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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Analysis of Friday's Trades: EUR/USD on 30M and 5M Charts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.07.2023 10:16
Analyzing Friday's trades: EUR/USD on 30M chart   The EUR/USD pair took a breather and traded flat on Friday. Let's refresh our memory a bit: the pair has been rising all week, in most cases without any apparent reasons, and on Friday, it failed to show even a bit of a correction! That's all you need to know about the current movement. The demand for the euro is as strong as it is unfounded. Throughout the week, the market desperately reacted to the inflation report. At least, that's the only assumption we can make because there were no other important events or reports. Moreover, the reaction to the US inflation began as early as Monday (two days before its release), and it continued on Thursday (one day after the release). Even the FOMC meetings had a much weaker impact. Nevertheless, the uptrend persists, supported by the trend line. Therefore, it would be wise not to consider short positions in the medium term until the price firmly breaks below this line (with the exception of intraday trading with strong signals).   EUR/USD on 5M chart   Several entry signals materialized on the 5-minute chart, which is completely normal for a flat market. Throughout the day, the price crossed the distant level of 1.1228 five or six times. Naturally, in a flat market, all trading signals turned out to be false. Beginners could only execute the first two signals. In the first case, the price moved in the right direction for about 15 pips, which was enough to set a stop loss at breakeven, but not in the second case. Thus, the day turned out to be not the most successful, but what could one expect when volatility was only 40 pips and there were no important reports or events?   Trading tips on Monday:   On the 30M chart, the pair continues to form an uptrend. On Friday, there was an excellent opportunity for a slight correction with an empty event calendar, but the market did not take advantage of it. Therefore, the euro may extend its upward movement for the rest of the week. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0871, 1.0901, 1.0932, 1.0971-1.0977, 1.1038, 1.1091, 1.1132, 1.1184, 1.1279-1.1292, 1.1330, 1.1367. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Monday, there are no important reports or events lined up in the US or the euro area, so we can see any type of movement. It is highly likely to be a flat, but we may well see both an increase and a correction.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.      
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EUR/USD Soars to 15-Month Highs as Markets Respond to Inflation Figures

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.07.2023 10:13
The Federal Reserve has clearly won the fight against inflation. Victory is not inevitable, and its timing is not determined, but no one is talking about stagflation or hyperinflation at the moment. The markets responded favorably to the June consumer price index, fueling the dollar sell-off.   EUR/USD surged to 15-month highs, and this is far from the limit. Economists at Deutsche Bank expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 by Q4 2023, while Eurizon SLJ Capital suggests the 1.2 level. When the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is accompanied by heightened global risk appetite and the decline of American exceptionalism, the US dollar is forced to raise the white flag. Currently, the gap between consumer and producer prices is at a record high. When such situations have occurred in the past, stock markets have risen. This has happened either in the very late stages of a recession or in the early stages of an upturn.        The Federal Reserve has clearly won the fight against inflation. Victory is not inevitable, and its timing is not determined, but no one is talking about stagflation or hyperinflation at the moment. The markets responded favorably to the June consumer price index, fueling the dollar sell-off. EUR/USD surged to 15-month highs, and this is far from the limit.   Economists at Deutsche Bank expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 by Q4 2023, while Eurizon SLJ Capital suggests the 1.2 level. When the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is accompanied by heightened global risk appetite and the decline of American exceptionalism, the US dollar is forced to raise the white flag. Currently, the gap between consumer and producer prices is at a record high. When such situations have occurred in the past, stock markets have risen.   This has happened either in the very late stages of a recession or in the early stages of an upturn.      
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Weaker US Inflation Leads to Dollar Weakness and Demand for Risky Assets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.07.2023 16:24
The US consumer price index turned out to be much weaker than forecasts, leading to a drop in yields and a sharp increase in demand for risky assets. Inflation dropped from 4% YoY to 3% (forecast at 3.1%), the core index from 5.3% to 4.8% (forecast at 5.0%). The main reason for the decrease was the group of volatile goods and services – prices for airline tickets, hotel rooms, and used cars. Fed rate futures slightly changed - the likelihood of a rate hike in July even slightly increased to 92%, while the start of the easing cycle was shifted from May to March 2024.     This is possibly due to the fact that we don't know if this pace of decline will be sustainable. Richmond Fed President Barkin spoke after the report and urged not to pay attention to the fall in inflation, as long as the labor market remains too tense, inflation could return to high levels, and then it would take much more effort.   Meester from the Cleveland Fed essentially said the same thing - as long as wage growth is 4.5-5.0%, with productivity growth of less than 1.5%, it is too early to talk about price stability. Markets quickly reacted and the dollar noticeably weakened, September Brent futures crossed the barrier of 80 dollars a barrel, while demand for commodity currencies increased. The New Zealand dollar rose sharply, despite the fact that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the rate at 5.5% and hinted that it expects further inflation decline from peak levels.   USD/CAD The Bank of Canada, as expected, raised the benchmark rate by 0.25% to 5.00% at Wednesday's meeting.   The forecast for the start of the easing cycle is postponed to the indefinite future, and according to analysts at Scotiabank, another increase should be expected in September or October. The main reason for such estimates is the high likelihood that inflation in Canada is slowing down much slower than in the US, and economic growth is more stable.   The Bank of Canada's updated forecasts claim that GDP will grow by 1.8% this year, 1.5% next year, and 2.5% in 2025, all amid expectations of a recession in the US.   Also, considering that the Canadian labor market has appeared more stable since the time of COVID restrictions, its recovery was faster than in the US. In general, the week is likely to end in the positive for the loonie, there are fewer factors that could turn the Canadian dollar's course towards weakening.   The net short position on CAD has been liquidated, weekly change +0.51 billion, a long position of 270 million has been formed. The positioning is neutral for now, but the trend is towards further demand for the Canadian dollar. The calculated price is noticeably lower than the long-term average.       USD/CAD continues to trade lower, although it has not yet managed to reach the target of 1.3040/60 outlined a week earlier. We expect the pair to fall further, the next target after passing the lower band of the channel will be the technical level of 1.30. USD/JPY The Bank of Japan published its latest regional economic report on July 10. One of the key topics is the comments by the leaders of the BoJ's regional offices regarding the pace of growth in average wages, which is key to understanding the BoJ's position on methods of responding to high inflation. Most of the reports indicate that there is a nationwide increase in average wages by around 5%, in some cases, it rises to 7%, as high inflation reduces real household incomes.   In May, the average wage across Japan grew by 2.5% YoY compared to 0.8% in April. At the same time, comments clearly trace the idea that changing the yield curve control policy means subjecting stability to unjustified risk. Nobody wants to take responsibility, and the question of whether practical steps will be taken at the July meeting remains open.   In regards to the yen exchange rate, this uncertainty does not compel us to expect the pair to strengthen. The net short position on the yen grew by 0.7 billion over the reporting week to -10.5 billion, positioning is confidently bearish. The calculated price is higher than the long-term average and is directed upwards. The yen sharply corrected, the main reason for the decline is the US dollar's weakness and the growth of the Japanese stock market, which continues to receive foreign capital in large volumes.  
Euro Continues to Rise Despite Weak Euro Area Industrial Production  Keywords

Euro Continues to Rise Despite Weak Euro Area Industrial Production Keywords

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.07.2023 16:22
Despite the fact that industrial production fell by 2.2% in the euro area, while in the previous month it grew by 0.2%, the euro still rose for another day. And this raises many questions since the euro did not have any reason to rise on Thursday. t was actually the opposite. Apparently, this is not just due to momentum or speculation. It seems that the latest US inflation report convinced many investors of the possibility that the interest rate level of the European Central Bank will be higher in the near future than that of the Federal Reserve. So there is a kind of global reassessment of positions. It doesn't make any sense to discuss the realistic possibility of such a scenario.   All answers will be given after the upcoming meetings of both central banks. For now we can take note of the fact that the dollar is extremely oversold. Therefore, a rebound is simply inevitable. The question is when exactly that will happen.   Clearly, economic data failed to do the job. Although it may be because it hasn't been long since the US inflation report was published. Maybe the market simply ignored yesterday's data. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is absolutely empty, and this is quite suitable for a rebound. But do not forget about the trend, which may persist and continue to push the euro upwards. Moreover, if the reassessment of expectations regarding the disparity of interest rates really is the main driving force, then there's a high degree of probability that we will see an extension of the euro's uptrend.   The EUR/USD pair strengthened in value almost by 300 points since the beginning of the trading week. Such an intense price change over a short period of time indicates that the euro is extremely overbought. On the four-hour chart, the RSI shows a strong signal of the euro's overbought conditions. The indicator moves at the values of 2017, which points to aggressive long positions. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to an uptrend.   Outlook In this situation, a pullback would be the next logical step, however, speculative frenzy could well ignore signals from technical analysis. In this case, this will fuel the momentum of the uptrend, adding to the euro's overbought conditions. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods, indicators are pointing to an uptrend.    
The ECB's Rate Hike: EUR/USD Rally in Question

Falling Demand for US Currency: Analyzing the Factors Behind the Dollar's Decline and its Impact on Euro and Pound

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.07.2023 16:20
Not only is the demand for the US currency decreasing, it's practically falling every day. The EUR/USD pair increased by 220 points this week, the GBP/USD pair by 270, if calculated from the week's opening point. At first glance, it may seem that the dollar losses are not frightening, but it continues to fall even when there are no reasons for it to do so. We are all used to the idea that market movements rely on economic data, daily events that help determine direction within each day. Sometimes there are strong background events, thanks to which one or another currency can grow every day, but this growth is not expressed in three-digit numbers.     Having analyzed the situation again, I came to the conclusion that the dollar's problem may lie in rapidly falling inflation. If inflation has already dropped to 3%, then the Federal Reserve has no need to continue policy-tightening in 2023. Perhaps there will be another "control shot" at consumer prices, and the rate will rise to 5.5%. But that's it.   The second point - if inflation is approaching the Fed's target, then monetary easing may begin as early as 2023. In the case of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, if the rate does finish rising in the coming months, it is not possible to talk about policy easing in the context of the near-term perspective. In my opinion, this is a rather dubious explanation for the falling demand for the US currency, but there is no other! The ECB and the BoE will sooner or later also cease tightening and move to easing, and this time may come even sooner than it seems now.   After all, in the UK and the EU the question of recession remains open. US GDP grows by 2-3% each quarter, whereas in Europe and the UK, growth has been absent for several quarters. And the higher the rate goes, the more "negative" economic growth will be. And I believe this factor should also be taken into account. Based on all of the above, the euro and pound can extend its upward movement for some time. This can be explained as the "final impulse" of the market, which understands that it has placed both instruments in overbought territory. However, it's impossible to predict when most market participants will decide to take profits and close long positions. I believe that now it is necessary to carefully monitor the situation and try to respond to it as quickly as possible.   There aren't really any other options. Both wave markings allow for a build-up of a descending set of waves, but we know that any wave structure can be complicated. And the current news background provides no help or benefit. There were plenty of weak economic reports from the EU and Britain this week.   Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the uptrend build-up is still in progress, but it can end at any moment. I believe that targets around 1.0500-1.0600 are quite realistic, and I advise selling the instrument with these targets. However, now we need to wait for the completion of the a-b-c structure, and afterwards we can expect the pair to fall into this area. Buying is quite risky. The euro uses any opportunity to rise, but the news background for the dollar is not as weak as it may seem. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests the formation of an upward set of waves. Earlier, I advised buying the instrument in case of a failed attempt to break through the 1.2615 mark, which is equivalent to 127.2% Fibonacci, and then open long positions while aiming for targets around the 1.3084 mark, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci. Now all targets have been achieved, but a successful attempt to break through 1.3084 can lead to a new momentum with targets located around 1.3478 (261.8% Fibonacci).  
GBP/USD Analysis: GBP Maintains Growth Momentum, Market Awaits US Inflation Report

GBP/USD Analysis: GBP Maintains Growth Momentum, Market Awaits US Inflation Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.07.2023 13:47
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday secured above the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.2917). Thus, the growth process can continue toward the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3007). A level of 1.3000 can be considered a psychological mark, and such levels usually attract price. In other words, traders may subconsciously strive for such marks. The pair's consolidation below the level of 1.2917 will work in favor of the US dollar, and some fall toward the level of 1.2847. The waves are now painting us the same picture as with the euro.   Each peak of the next wave is higher than the previous one, and each low - is higher than the previous one. Thus, there are no prerequisites for a change in traders' sentiment to "bearish." However, the most important report of this week will be released today, so the market reaction can be strong and unexpected. The pound rose in the first two days of the week, although the grounds for purchases were quite dubious. For example, yesterday's unemployment reports in the UK showed a deterioration, and the pound could show a decline.   But traders have already focused on US inflation, which could drop to 3.1% in June. This value has already been factored in, but what if the report shows a different result? In this case, we are waiting for a move that will depend on the side of the deviation from the forecast. If the consumer price index turns out to be above 3.1%, then a decline in the pair can be expected. If below - new growth. The level of 1.3000 can be worked out a bit later, not today. Today the probability of a decline is higher. However, this does not mean traders' sentiment will change to "bearish."   On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the level of 1.2745 and consolidated above the level of 1.2860. Thus, the growth of quotes can continue towards the next level of 1.3044. A "bearish" divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, which may indicate the beginning of forming a "bearish" wave on the hourly chart. There are no sell signals now, and the pound ignores the news background, which should have led to its decline.   Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: During the previous reporting week, there was a shift in the "Non-commercial" traders' sentiment, which turned somewhat less "bullish." The count of long contracts held by speculators fell by 7,921 units, while the short contracts saw a decrease of 6,192. Despite this, the predominant sentiment among the major players remains distinctly "bullish," with a marked difference between long and short contracts: 96 thousand to 46 thousand. The pound has a favorable outlook for further growth, particularly as the current news environment lends it more support than the dollar. Nevertheless, anticipating a strong surge in the value of the pound sterling is increasingly challenging. The market is overlooking several factors that favor the dollar, and expectations of continual interest rate increases from the Bank of England primarily drive the pound's growth.     Here's the upcoming news schedule for the US and UK: US - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (12:30 UTC). US - "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC).   For Wednesday, the economic event calendar includes one report and one event. The "Beige Book," an aggregation of economic reports from various US regions, doesn't generally significantly influence the market. However, the inflation report may substantially sway traders' sentiments. As for the GBP/USD forecast and trading advice: Minimal selling of the pound during the "bullish" trend is possible. For instance, a rebound from the 1.3007 mark on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2917 or a closure below the 1.2917 level aiming for 1.2847 could be considered. New purchases could be advisable upon a rebound from the 1.2917 level on the hourly chart, aiming for 1.3007. However, movements in the latter half of the day may be considerable and vary in direction.  
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Signals and Trends

GBP/USD Analysis: Sell Signal Triggers Price Decrease, Market Awaits US CPI Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.07.2023 13:43
The test of 1.2942, coinciding with the decline of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that led to a price decrease of around 20 pips. The latest CPI data in the US lies ahead, and this will likely cause market players to review their positions on risky assets. Demand for pound may drop, which could lead to a decline in GBP/USD. There will be an increase only when inflation drops more than expected. Markets will also pay attention to the speeches of FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2946 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3014 (thicker green line on the chart). Further growth will be seen in the case of weak US inflation data. However, when buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2895, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2946 and 1.3014.     For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2895 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2844. Pressure will increase in the event of further growth in US inflation. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2946, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2895 and 1.2844.         What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market     Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
EUR/USD Analysis: Low Volatility Ahead of US CPI Release, Market Players Brace for Potential Impact on Risky Assets

EUR/USD Analysis: Low Volatility Ahead of US CPI Release, Market Players Brace for Potential Impact on Risky Assets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.07.2023 13:41
No price test occurred in EUR/USD this morning due to low volatility and empty macroeconomic calendar. But ahead lies the latest consumer price index in the US, which will likely force many market players to review their positions on risky assets. Demand for euro may drop, which could lead to a decline in the pair.   There will be an increase only when inflation drops more than expected. Markets will also pay attention to the speeches of FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic. For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.1036 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1075. Growth will occur amid weak US inflation.   However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.1017, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1036 and 1.1075. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.1017 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0981. Pressure will increase in the case of another jump in US inflation. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.1036, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1017 and 1.0981.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market       Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
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Navigating GBP/USD: Analyzing 5M Chart for Intraday Trading Success

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.07.2023 09:26
5M chart of GBP/USD   The GBP/USD jumped solidly upwards on Monday, with volatility exceeding the 100-point mark. A speech by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey was scheduled in the UK yesterday, but it was planned for the evening, so it couldn't have any influence on the pair's movement during the day. Nevertheless, in the second half of the day, the dollar slumped, which we can associate with the upcoming US inflation report, which already suggests a sharp slowdown to 3.1%. If the forecasts come true, then this report is already accounted for, and the likelihood of two more rate hikes in 2023 will drastically decrease. Theoretically, the broad US dollar weakness is logical, but let's also remember that this pattern is not always observed.   The market still uses any excuse to buy the pair. The momentum persists. There was only one entry point yesterday. At the beginning of the US session, the pair bounced off the 1.2762 level and the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, afterwards it rose to the 1.2863 level. The long position should have been closed manually closer to the evening, so the profit on it was about 70 points. An excellent trading day!   COT report:     The GBP/USD jumped solidly upwards on Monday, with volatility exceeding the 100-point mark. A speech by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey was scheduled in the UK yesterday, but it was planned for the evening, so it couldn't have any influence on the pair's movement during the day. Nevertheless, in the second half of the day, the dollar slumped, which we can associate with the upcoming US inflation report, which already suggests a sharp slowdown to 3.1%.   If the forecasts come true, then this report is already accounted for, and the likelihood of two more rate hikes in 2023 will drastically decrease. Theoretically, the broad US dollar weakness is logical, but let's also remember that this pattern is not always observed. The market still uses any excuse to buy the pair. The momentum persists.   There was only one entry point yesterday. At the beginning of the US session, the pair bounced off the 1.2762 level and the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, afterwards it rose to the 1.2863 level. The long position should have been closed manually closer to the evening, so the profit on it was about 70 points. An excellent trading day!       In the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias. The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal. So, traders are opening new long positions. However, the pound sterling is overbought. It is likely to decline in the medium term. Yet, it surpassed the descending trend line. Hence, it could move to new highs.   Yet, it surpassed the descending trend line. Hence, it could move to new highs. According to the technical analysis, the pound sterling has drivers for a further increase. And the market is happy to take any opportunity to sell the dollar. On July 11, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2598-1.2605, 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. Senkou Span B (1.2714) and Kijun-sen (1.2719) lines can also provide signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips.   The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Tuesday, the UK will publish at least three reports that could stir some market reaction. Jobless claims, unemployment and payrolls. We believe that the unemployment data may have an impact on the traders' mood. If they turn out to be optimistic, the pound will receive a new opportunity to extend its upward movement. Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.   They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.    
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Navigating Volatility: Analyzing GBP/USD on 30M Chart for Intraday Trading Success

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.07.2023 09:22
Analyzing Monday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     The GBP/USD pair managed to both rise and fall on Monday. The pound sterling corrected against Friday's decline, but in the second half of the day, it traded higher again, which corresponds to the current trend. There were no important economic reports in the UK or in the US.   Three representatives of the FOMC spoke in the US, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is usually speaking in the UK around this time. For obvious reasons, Bailey's speech could not have any influence on the pair's movements during the day. And the FOMC members' speeches took place in the evening, so they also could not have provoked either the morning fall or the afternoon rise.   However, volatility was over 100 points, which is quite a lot for a Monday. The uptrend persists, and we have to point out that the growth is groundless, but there's nothing we can do if the market wishes to buy the pair, regardless of the fundamental background.   GBP/USD on 5M chart   Several entry points materialized on the 5M chart. First, the pair bounced twice from the level of 1.2801 (buy signals duplicated each other), but it only rose by 13 pips. It was impractical to work out these signals, as there was a high probability of a flat on Monday, and the Stop Loss on the deal should have been set below the level of 1.2779. When a sell signal was formed in the form of overcoming the area of 1.2779-1.2801, it was already clear that there would be no flat, so the deal could be worked out, but it did not bring profit, it closed at a break-even stop loss. The next buy signal could have been executed, and it would have brought a profit of 30 pips. In general, the pair changed its direction of movement several times on Monday, which is always bad for intraday trading.   Trading tips on Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new uptrend. The pound can still rise even on those days when there is no fundamental background. Therefore, purely technically, GBP may extend its upward movement, but fundamental factors are still very doubtful. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2538, 1.2597-1.2605, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2779-1.2801, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Tuesday, the UK will release reports on jobless claims, unemployment, and wages. In the US, Federal Reserve official James Bullard will speak. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.     2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.     3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.     4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.     5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.     6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.    
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GBP/USD: Testing Key Resistance Levels Amidst a Challenging Path to Upside Breakout

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.07.2023 09:10
Last Friday, the GBP/USD pair tested the 1.2850 support level, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. From a formal point of view, the pound has renewed its multi-month price peak (the last time the pair was at this level was in April), but in reality, the situation doesn't look so rosy for buyers. Over the past three weeks, the pound has repeatedly approached the 1.2850 target, but each time it stopped just a few steps away from this price barrier.   Take a look at the weekly and daily GBP/USD charts: since mid-June, the pair has shown wave-like dynamics, as it repeatedly tries to overcome the stubborn resistance level. By the way, the last attempt also ended in failure.   At the start of the new trading week, sellers took the initiative again, pulling the price into the 27th figure range. A news catalyst is needed The pound needs a strong news catalyst to break through the defense (1.2850), approach the boundaries of the 29th figure, and in the future claim the heights of the 30th price level. Undoubtedly, such a scenario is possible in the case of a massive weakening of the greenback, but as practice shows, even in this case, the pound should play not the role of the follower, but the leader.   As already mentioned above, the GBP/USD pair has been moving in an uptrend since mid-June. Initially, support for the pound came from data on rising inflation in the UK. It turned out that the core consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped to 7.1% in May, while most analysts predicted it would fall to 6.7%. The indicator renewed a multi-year record - this is the strongest pace of growth of the indicator since 1992. Within the current year, the indicator demonstrates an uptrend for the second month in a row. This fact strengthened the pound's position, but its main "ally" turned out to be the Bank of England, which unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 50 basis points a few days after the release (the base forecast assumed a 25-point hike). Moreover, in its accompanying statement, the central bank did not soften its wording and hinted at further tightening of monetary policy.   The central bank, in particular, indicated that it will continue to "carefully monitor signs of inflationary pressure in the economy, including the labor market situation and wage dynamics, as well as inflation in the services sector." At the same time, the Bank warned that if signs of more persistent pressure are recorded in the future, a further increase in the interest rate will be needed. The events of the past month allowed buyers to cover almost a 500-point path: at the beginning of June, the price fluctuated at the base of the 24th figure, while on the wave of the upward momentum it grew to the middle of the 28th figure. But the 1.2850 target became a local price ceiling for the bulls.   In order to build an upward move, you need to experience a kind of deja vu: further inflation growth (this time in June) + hawkish results of the next BoE meeting. However, to successfully transfer to the price echelon 1.2850 - 1.3000, it is enough to fulfill only the first point of the "plan" (provided that the dollar index remains in its previous positions and does not strengthen after the release of US inflation data).   Important reports ahead The consumer price index in the UK for June will be published next week - July 19th. This will be key in the run-up to the next - August - BoE meeting. But in addition to the inflation report, one should also pay attention to another report - in the field of the UK labor market. It will be published on Tuesday. If the main components turn out to be in the green zone (especially the pro-inflation indicator), the pound will receive a kind of "advance assistance", which will be greatly enhanced in case of a strong inflation report. In other words, if both releases (labor market + inflation) are in the green zone, the probability of a rate hike in August will significantly increase, and this fact will support the British currency.   According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate will remain at the same level (3.8%), the number of employed will increase by 20,000 (after falling by 13,000 in the previous month), and the wage component will show contradictory dynamics: with the payment of bonuses, the indicator will rise to 6.8%, without bonuses - it will decrease slightly, to 7.1%. Overall, if you trust the forecast estimates, Tuesday's reports can support the British currency.   If the indicators turn out to be in the green (especially the wage component of the report), buyers may again test the resistance level of 1.2850, which turned out to be a "tough nut to crack". But even in this case, the pound is unlikely to settle above this target and settle within the 29th figure. In my opinion, such a scenario is possible in case of an acceleration in the growth rate of the UK CPI and/or a large-scale weakening of the US currency. From a technical point of view, on the daily chart, the price is between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands, which speaks of the bullish bias.   On the daily and weekly charts, the Ichimoku indicator formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal, when the price is above all lines of the indicator, including above the Kumo cloud. This signal also indicates bullish sentiments. The nearest target is the aforementioned mark of 1.2850 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on D1). The next level of resistance (and, accordingly, the next target) is the 1.2950 mark - this is also the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, but already on the weekly chart.
The Euro Dips as German Business Confidence Weakens Amid Soft Economic Data

Mixed Signals: US Dollar Weakens, Eurozone Faces Recession, Pound's Fate Hangs in the Balance

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.07.2023 09:05
The ADP report on employment in the private sector, published a day before the non-farm payroll data release, was so shocking that it instantly raised expectations for the labor market as a whole, leading to rapid repositioning on Friday before the data release. However, the non-farm payroll figures were significantly weaker than expected, with 209,000 new jobs created (225,000 expected), and data for the previous two months were revised downwards by 110,000. Employment growth is slowing, but the pace remains high. As for wage growth, the figures were an unpleasant surprise for the Federal Reserve. In June, wages increased again by 0.4% instead of the expected 0.3%, and annual growth rates remained at 4.4%, which is higher than the 4.2% forecast. Steady wage growth does not allow inflation expectations to fall, the growth of real rates does not allow the Federal Reserve to start lowering the rate this year.       The U.S. inflation index, which will be published on Wednesday, is the main event of the week and the last important data before the Fed meeting at the end of July. The markets expect an 89% probability of a quarter-point rate hike. Furthermore, the probability of another increase in November has already exceeded 30%, and the first cut is now expected only in May of next year. The U.S. dollar fell after the data release and ended the week weaker than all G10 currencies. The growth of real rates in the current conditions makes a recession in the U.S. almost inevitable.   EUR/USD The Sentix Economic Index for the eurozone has fallen for the third time in a row to -22.5 points, a low since November 2022, and expectations also remain depressed. The eurozone economy has fallen into a recession as of early July. The situation in Germany is even more depressing – the index has fallen to -28.5 points, and the possibility of improvement is ephemeral.     The ZEW index will be published on Tuesday, and the forecast for it is also negative, with a decrease from -10 points to -10.2 points expected in July. On Thursday, the European Commission will present its forecasts. Bloomberg expects that industrial production in the eurozone fell in May from 0.2% y/y to -1.1% y/y, a sharp decline that characterizes the entire eurozone economy as negative and tending to further contraction.   Under the current conditions, the European Central Bank intends to continue raising rates, and even plans to shorten the reinvestment period of the PEPP program. If this step is implemented, a debt crisis, which will put strong bearish pressure on the euro, is inevitable in the face of capital outflows to the U.S. and an expanding recession.   The net long position on the euro has hardly changed over the reporting week and amounts to just over 20 billion dollars, positioning is bullish, there is no trend. However, the calculated price is still below the long-term average and is trending downward.     The euro attempted to strengthen on Friday in light of the news, but it was unable to rise beyond the borders of the technical figure "flag", let alone higher than the local high of 1.1012. We assume that the corrective growth has ended, and from the current levels, the euro will go down, the target is the lower boundary of the "flag" at 1.0730/50. GBP/USD Updated data on the UK labor market will be published on Tuesday. It is expected that the growth of average earnings including bonuses increased in May from 6.5% to 6.8%, and if the data comes out as expected, inflation expectations will inevitably rise. As will the Bank of England's peak rate forecasts. The NIESR Institute expects that further rate increases could trigger a recession.   The cost of credit is rising, and an increase in the volume of bad debts is inevitable in an economic downturn. Inflation did not decrease in May, contrary to expectations, and remained at 8.7%, even though energy prices significantly decreased. Food inflation on an annual basis reached 18.3%, and core inflation at 7.1% is at its highest since 1992. The labor force is decreasing, and if this trend is confirmed on Tuesday, it will almost inevitably result in increased competition for staff, which will mean, among other things, the continuation of wage growth. The Bank of England has already raised the rate to 5%, with forecasts implying two more increases. What does the current situation mean for the pound?   If the economy can keep from sliding into a recession, then in conditions of rising nominal rates, the yield spread will encourage players to buy assets, leading to increased demand for the pound and its strengthening. However, if signs of recession intensify, which could be clear as soon as Thursday when GDP, industrial production, and trade balance data for May will be published, the pound will react with a decrease, despite high rate expectations. After impressive growth two weeks ago, pound futures have stalled at achieved levels, a weekly decrease of just over 100 million has no significant impact on positioning, which remains bullish.  
The British Pound Takes the Lead in G10 Currency Race Amid Disappointing U.S. Employment Data

The British Pound Takes the Lead in G10 Currency Race Amid Disappointing U.S. Employment Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 12:07
The British pound has strengthened its leadership in the G10 currency race thanks to the U.S. employment report. The increase of 209,000 jobs in June disappointed USD supporters, causing GBP/USD quotes to soar to the highest level since April 2022. However, it failed to consolidate at that level as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% and average wages accelerated to 4.4%, indicating that the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work ahead. The Bank of England also faces challenges. Wage growth in the United Kingdom is outpacing that of the United States. Bloomberg experts forecast a 7.1% increase in May.   The current values, along with sustained elevated inflation at 8.7%, are perceived by companies as a greater incentive for price increases than the BoE's optimistic forecasts of CPI slowdown. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues are determined to prevent inflation from solidifying at elevated levels, but their actions could lead to a recession. Indeed, the short-term market expects the repo rate to reach 6.5% by March 2024. Such a high borrowing cost could risk a recession. Additionally, the yield curve inversion signals an impending downturn.     At first glance, the pound is at a turning point: the projected 150 basis points increase in borrowing costs could trigger a GDP contraction. Markets generally perceive this negatively, as was the case with the U.S. dollar at the turn of 2022–2023, when its quotes were falling. However, it's important to remember that in any currency pair, there are two currencies. The current success of GBP/USD is only partially related to expectations of a repo rate increase to 6.5%.   It's also influenced by some weakening of the U.S. dollar against major global currencies. Some Forex experts believe that the most aggressive monetary restriction by the Federal Reserve in decades will eventually worsen the health of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Bloomberg experts predict a slowdown in U.S. consumer prices to 3.1% in June, causing the USD index to decline. The pound faces a test with the release of UK labor market data by July 14. Alongside the previously mentioned wage growth of 7.1%, Bloomberg experts forecast a slowdown in employment from +250,000 to +158,000.   According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, this change will not be sufficient to stop the Bank of England. The repo rate hike toward 6.5% will continue. Considering that markets were anticipating 5.3% a month ago, the pound's successes are logical.     In my opinion, investors have been somewhat excessive in selling the U.S. dollar based on mixed U.S. employment statistics. This vulnerability makes sterling positions vulnerable. Technically, on the daily GBP/USD chart, a reversal pattern like a Double Bottom may form, or an upward trend may resume. In the first case, we sell the pair on a breakthrough of the pivot level at 1.2785. In the second case, on the contrary, we buy it upon a new local high at 1.285.  
Market Digest: Fed Minutes and Employment Data Spark Pessimism, Impacting Global Stock Markets and Currency Pairs

Market Digest: Fed Minutes and Employment Data Spark Pessimism, Impacting Global Stock Markets and Currency Pairs

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 12:01
Global stock markets edge lower amid pessimism sparked by the latest Fed minutes and contrasting employment figures from ADP and the US Department of Labor. Obviously, investors continue to be stirred up by the potential rate hikes by global central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve. The recent private sector employment data from the ADP, which indicated strong growth in new jobs, primarily in the services sector, increased the chances of seeing an increase in rates. However, the situation became uncertain after the US Department of Labor published its official data on the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector. Reportedly, employment rose by 209,000, lower than the 225,000 the previous month. Still, this figure remains above the threshold of 200,000, indicating an overall continuing positive pace of employment growth, but with the risk of a significant fall in the future. The currency and commodities markets reacted to the news rather coolly, effectively confirming the theory that the stabilization of US inflation or the resumption of its growth could force the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Latest inflation data from China, Germany, and the US lies ahead, but more focus will be given to the consumer price index in the US. Forecast says the overall figure will fall to 3.1% y/y, but increase by 0.3% m/m. Such figures will boost risk appetite, accompanied by a weakening of dollar as treasury yields fall. The chances of seeing further rate hikes will drop as well.     EUR/USD The pair hit 1.0970. Surpassing this level amid a decrease in US inflation will push the quote 1.1100.   GBP/USD The pair trades at 1.2835. A consolidation above it, which could be spurred by falling US inflation and steady expectations of rate hikes from the Bank of England due to high inflation, may bring the quote to 1.2985.  
US Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint: What's Next for EUR/USD?

US Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint: What's Next for EUR/USD?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 11:54
First impressions can be deceiving. US non-agricultural employment rose by 209,000 in June fell short of the Bloomberg expert consensus forecast and was the weakest since December 2020. Moreover, the data for April and May were revised down by 110,000. Initially, the market perceived the report as weak, which led to a drop in Treasury bond yields and a rise in EUR/USD above 1.092. However, the devil is always in the details. In the lead-up to the report, investors were counting on strong numbers as private sector employment from ADP rose by nearly half a million people.   However, the actual non-farm payrolls turned out to be worse than that report by the largest amount since the beginning of 2022. This fact can be seen as a sign of a cooling labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment in June dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%. As long as it does not increase, we can forget about a recession in the US economy. In addition, the average wage increased faster than expected, so it's still too early for the Federal Reserve to relax.     The employment report for the US private sector turned out to be mixed. It reduced the probability of a rate hike to 5.75% in 2023 from 41% to 36%, which worsened the position of the US dollar against the main world currencies. However, Deutsche Bank noted that only a figure of +100,000 or less for non-farm payrolls could change the worldview of FOMC officials and make them abandon their plans for two acts of monetary restriction this year. June employment data gave food for thought to both the "hawks" and "centrists" of the Fed, as well as the "bulls" and "bears" for EUR/USD.   Now, investors' attention is shifting to US inflation data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Bloomberg experts expect consumer prices to slow in June from 4% to 3.1%, and core inflation from 5.3% to 5% year-on-year. CPI is moving so quickly towards the 2% target that it's as if Fed officials have not changed their minds. Could it be that this time the financial market will be right? And those who went against the Fed will make money? We'll see.     Not everyone agrees with this. ING notes that the minutes of the FOMC's June meeting set a very high bar for incoming data for the Bank to abandon its plans. The US labor market report is unlikely to have surpassed this bar. Core inflation continues to remain high, and the economy is firmly on its feet.   All this allows ING to predict the EUR/USD pair's fall towards 1.08 within the next week. Technically, on the daily chart, there is a battle for the fair value at 1.092. Closing above this level will allow you to buy on a breakout of resistance at 1.0935. This is where the upper band of the consolidation range within the "Spike and Ledge" pattern is located. On the contrary, if the 1.092 mark persists for the bears, we will sell the euro from $1.089.      
US Inflation Reports: Key Catalysts for Dollar Pairs and Market Volatility

US Inflation Reports: Key Catalysts for Dollar Pairs and Market Volatility

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.07.2023 11:48
Traders will focus on the upcoming US inflation report. The US will publish key inflation reports that will trigger high volatility among dollar pairs, including the EUR/USD pair. At the end of last week, buyers actively traded as they approached the boundaries of the 10th figure. Traders interpreted June's Non-farms against the US currency, although the report itself was rather contradictory (for example, the wage component came out in the "green").   Inflation reports can restore confidence to the dollar bulls if they reflect an acceleration of the main indicators. But they can also plunge the greenback, enhancing doubts about the interest rate hike within the "post-July" period (the fact of the rate hike at the July meeting is beyond doubt, judging by market expectations). Therefore, traders will focus on the three US inflation reports that will be published during the upcoming week. All other macroeconomic reports will be of secondary importance, although they should not be ignored either.   Consumer Price Index The most important release of the week is the report on the growth of the consumer price index in the US for June (Wednesday, July 12). According to most experts, the indicator will reflect a slowdown in inflation growth. Thus, the general consumer price index in June should decrease quite sharply - to 3.1% y/y (from the previous value of 4.0%). The core index, excluding food and energy prices, should also demonstrate a downward dynamic, slowing down from the May value of 5.3% to 5.0% y/y. Take note that even if the CPI surprises market participants with unexpected growth, this fact is unlikely to fundamentally change the situation in the context of the July FED meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate hike this month is 93%.   That is, traders are practically confident in the hawkish outcome of the July meeting - the "green tint" of the inflation report will maintain (confirm) this confidence, but no more. However, if the consumer price index ends up in the "red", the dollar will be under quite strong pressure.   The fact is that the probability of another rate hike in September is now only 24% (again, according to the CME FedWatch Tool). If inflation indicators decrease at a more active pace, the probability of another increase (after July) by the end of the current year will weaken, and this fact will put pressure on the greenback. Producer Price Index, Import Price Index... and more Interestingly, the other inflation reports to be published in the coming week are also expected to reflect a slowdown in US inflation. For example, on Thursday, July 13, we will learn the value of the producer price index.   Experts believe that the overall PPI in monthly terms will come out at 0.2%, and in annual terms - at 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator has been consistently decreasing for 11 months in a row, and June will accordingly be the 12th month. If it comes out at the forecast level, it will be the weakest result since August 2020. The core producer price index should show a similar dynamic. In annual terms, it should decrease to 2.7% (from the previous value of 2.8%). In this case, it will be the fifteenth consecutive decrease in the indicator. For comparison, it should be noted that in March of last year the base PPI was at 9.6%. On Friday, July 14, we will learn the dynamics of the import price index.   This indicator can be an early signal of changes in inflation trends, or their confirmation. In this case - more likely a confirmation. According to general forecasts, in monthly terms, the indicator will remain in the negative area, standing at -0.1%. In annual terms, the index has been below zero for three months in a row, and in June it should also remain in the negative area (-6.9%). Certainly, aside from US inflation reports, the economic calendar for the upcoming week is packed with other events: for instance, many Fed representatives (Barr, Bostic, Daly, Mester) will speak on Monday, the ZEW indices will be published on Tuesday, and a speech by Fed Reserve representative Neel Kashkari and ECB governing council member Philip Lane is expected on Wednesday. Also, we have the release of the ECB's June meeting minutes and the initial jobless claims data in the US.   On Friday, the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and a speech by Fed Reserve governing board member Christopher Waller is expected. But all these events will serve as a kind of information backdrop. The main focus will be on US inflation. Conclusions The aforementioned inflation reports have the potential to greatly influence the dollar, especially if they end up in the "red", i.e., if the pace of inflation decline in the US accelerates. Amid contradictory Nonfarm, this would mean that the Federal Reserve may limit itself to just one additional rate hike, which will obviously occur at the July meeting.   The July rate hike has already been factored into the market, so any doubts about further tightening of monetary policy will be detrimental to the greenback. In this case, buyers will be the beneficiaries of the current situation: their path will be open not only to the boundaries of the 10th figure, but also to the 1.1080 mark (upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart).  
New Zealand Dollar's Bearish Trend Wanes as Global Growth Outlook Improves

Bitcoin's Bullish Run Faces Contradictory Factors in the Crypto Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:51
After breaking the key resistance level of 21,700 in March, Bitcoin pulled the quotes of popular altcoins into the bull market zone. In the middle of last month, the BTC/USDT pair again became the driving force behind the positive dynamics of the digital currency market. In just two days, on June 20 and 21, the BTC/USDT exchange rate grew by 12%, and at the end of June, the pair updated its 12-month high at the 31,443 mark. The sharp growth of Bitcoin, which Ethereum later joined, occurred amid several positive news for the crypto market.     In particular, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June received applications from five major asset management companies: WisdomTree Inc., Invesco Ltd., Valkyrie Funds, Fidelity Investments, and BlackRock Inc. to create a new investment product (spot Bitcoin ETF). Companies Citadel, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab launched their own decentralized crypto exchange. At the end of the month, another of the world's largest investment companies, Invesco, applied to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF.   The rapid growth of interest from large corporations in cryptocurrencies may also be due to the anticipation of their approval by global regulators as a means of payment. Thus, after the Fed meeting that ended on June 14, Chairman Jerome Powell announced the need for the Fed to be involved in the regulation of the stablecoin market, which he called a "form of money," not securities. If the Fed approves stablecoins as a means of payment, they will become a real alternative to fiat money. At the end of last month, the largest U.S. asset management company, BlackRock, also filed an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF to the SEC. After these reports, trading volumes in the crypto market began to grow and, at the beginning of last week, already amounted to 19.5 billion dollars. Buyer interest in stablecoins is supported, among other things, by an unstable geopolitical situation in the world, remaining tense amid a military conflict in Ukraine and a brewing conflict in Taiwan, threatening a direct clash between the U.S. and China.   Negative points for the crypto market include the continued pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on leading digital platforms Binance and Coinbase, which is also spreading in European countries. In the UK, the Binance branch (Binance Markets Limited) will no longer be able to operate in the country, as it lost its license from British regulators. Binance branches in Germany and Belgium are also in a difficult position. At the end of last month, it also became known that U.S.   President Joe Biden promised to reform the tax system, "eliminating loopholes for Bitcoin and crypto traders." This could specifically refer to the short-term trading operations of crypto traders, who sell and buy ba ck cryptocurrencies in a short period of time, allowing them to avoid higher tax rates. Moreover, speaking at the European Central Bank Forum last week, Fed Chair Powell confirmed the possibility of further interest rate hikes, which could support the U.S. dollar, including in relation to cryptocurrencies (in pairs with the USDT stablecoin).   Therefore, despite the bullish sentiment of Bitcoin buyers, a somewhat contradictory situation has developed in the digital currency market, not allowing Bitcoin and other popular altcoins to develop a more confident upward trend.  
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Belarus Plans to Ban P2P Cryptocurrency Transactions Amid Rising Cybercrime Concerns

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:29
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus is working on legal amendments to ban peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. On July 2, the ministry issued an official statement on Telegram regarding new regulations to ban individual P2P cryptocurrency exchanges.   The authorities cited the high level of cybercrime in Belarus, claiming that since January 2023, local prosecutors had suppressed the activities of 27 citizens who provided "illegal cryptocurrency exchange services." Their total illegal income amounted to almost 22 million Belarusian rubles ($8.7 million). The ministry argued that P2P cryptocurrency services are "in demand by scammers who withdraw and convert stolen funds and transfer money to organizers or participants in criminal schemes." To eliminate such illegal activity, the ministry will prohibit P2P transaction entities, only allowing them to exchange cryptocurrencies through exchanges registered in the Belarusian Technology Park (HTP).       Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $31,372 as the up trend has resumed and then pulled-back from the extremely overbought market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $29,556. Moreover, the bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support and the line in sand for bulls. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart and on a Daily time frame chart, so the bulls are ready to continue the up move. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.  
Bank of England: Falling Corporate Price Expectations May Signal Peak in Rate Hike Cycle

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Adoption Soars Globally, US Lags Behind as Retail CBDC Stalls

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:17
The latest research shows that almost all countries are intensifying work on the creation of central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems, and some of them are close to completing this work. According to a report by the Atlantic Council think tank, based in Washington, 130 countries, which together generate 98% of the world's GDP, are exploring the possibility of introducing it. This is a huge increase compared to May 2020, when only 35 countries were considering implementing a CBDC.   The report shows that a record number of 64 countries are already at an advanced stage of exploring the CBDC system. They have implemented initial development, are conducting pilot tests or are even in the commissioning phase. Among them are 19 out of 20 G20 countries. Interestingly, the US seems to be the exception to this rule, with retail CBDC adoption progressing. This one seems to be stuck there at a dead end right now.     Technical Market Outlook: The bulls are clearly in control of the ETH market and they resumed the up trend again and made the last high at the level of $1,974. The market is approaching the key technical support located at the level of $1,930, so in a case of a bounce from this level the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,020. The momentum turned into positive on the RSI (14) indicator, so the short-term outlook for ETH remains bullish, however the market conditions on the lower time frames are now extremely overbought. The short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,777.  
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Bullish Bias in 1H Chart of GBP/USD with Potential for Uptrend, Overvaluation Concerns, and Key Trading Levels

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:11
1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, although it is correcting at the moment. The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal. However, we still believe that the British currency is overvalued and should fall in the medium term. The pair overcame the downward trend line, so the pound has an opportunity to show another round of the uptrend. So far, it has not crossed the Senkou Span B line, but it is the last line of defense on the way to a new uptrend. On July 5, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2598-1.2605, 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B (1.2726) and Kijun-sen (1.2662) may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them.   A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Wednesday, services PMI numbers for the UK in the second estimate for June will be released. Not the most significant indicator. We have the FOMC minutes for release in the US, which rarely contains important information. The pair will likely go through low volatility, but as we can see, the lack of news does not prevent the pound from continuing to rise against the USD.       Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  
AUD Faces Dual Challenges: US CPI Data and Australian Labor Market Statistics

GBP/USD Holds Strong in Face of Weak Statistics: Assessing Volatility, Rate Hikes, and Market Reactions User

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:03
The GBP/USD currency pair was traded with low volatility on Tuesday but still managed to move upwards, while the euro currency stood still and decreased more than it grew. Thus, even on a completely empty Tuesday, the pound sterling found reasons to start moving north again.   The price has re-fixed above the moving average and is still very close to its local maximums, which also coincide with the annual maximums. The British currency still cannot correct down properly, which is especially visible in the 24-hour timeframe. Occasionally, there are downward corrections on the 4-hour timeframe, but in most cases, they are purely formal.   The logic of the movements needs to be improved. Two weeks ago, when the Bank of England unexpectedly raised the rate by 0.5% for many, the pound did not grow. But yesterday, when it was a holiday in the States, it added about 40-50 points. The British economy is still weak and is holding out with the last of its strength not to slide into a recession.   US GDP exceeds forecasts by 0.7% and shows a value of +2% q/q. The Bank of England's rate continues to rise but is still lower than the Fed's. The British regulator can raise the rate several times but will likely stay within the Fed's rate. All this suggests that even if the dollar doesn't have strong reasons to grow now, it certainly has no reasons to fall. However, in most cases, we continue to observe the pair's growth. Only business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors can be highlighted for the first two days of the week. In the US and UK, the indices fell synchronously for June and have long been below the "waterline" of 50.0. Again, the pound did not have an advantage over the dollar due to macroeconomic statistics.     Thursday and Friday promise to be "stormy"! The week's most important events are concentrated in its last two days. Today, of course, the Fed's minutes will be published. In the European Union and Britain, the second estimates of business activity indices for June will become known, but all these are secondary data. It is unlikely that the Fed's minutes will surprise traders who are already confident in a rate hike in July, as well as after Jerome Powell's five speeches over the past weeks, in which he laid everything out. Therefore, the main movements are planned for Thursday and Friday, when the ISM, ADP, unemployment benefit claims, the number of job openings, NonFarm Payrolls, and the unemployment rate will be released in the US.   As we can see, almost all reports are related to the labor market, which the Fed continues to monitor closely, and which has a priority for the regulator and the market. However, even if the reports are disastrous (which is currently hard to believe), the Fed will not change its plans to raise the rate.   And for the GBP/USD pair, it doesn't matter at all. The pound grows for a reason and without. If statistics from overseas turn out to be weak, it will merely get a new reason to grow against the dollar. If the statistics from the US turn out to be strong, we will see a new pullback down, a maximum of 100 points, and the Fed's position on the rate will not change. Thus, the market's local reaction could be significant.   In the medium term, these reports will not affect the situation in the market. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 94 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "medium." Therefore, on Wednesday, July 5, we expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.2612 and 1.2800. The Heiken Ashi indicator's reversal down signals a possible new downward movement wave.    
ECB Meeting Uncertainty: Rate Hike or Pause, Market Positions Reflect Tension

Pound Sterling Surprisingly Edges Higher with Low Volatility, Trading Signals and Prolonged Uptrend: A Closer Look at GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 09:00
The GBP/USD pair surprisingly edged higher on Tuesday. Volatility was naturally very low, but nevertheless, the pound sterling moved from the day's low to its high by about 60 points. Along the way, it even formed several good trading signals. Thus, even on a muted day with no economic data scheduled in the calendar, the market found reasons for long positions on the pound. Therefore, we can quite expect the upward movement to be ignited, as GBPUSD has been in a prolonged uptrend since October 2022.   This trend has been driven by momentum, and the pound's growth is groundless. However, keep in mind that the market can push the pair in any direction even without justifications. Two buy signals materialized during the European trading session. First, the pair overcame the level of 1.2693, and then rebounded from it from above, duplicating the buy signal. At the beginning of the US session, it reached the Senkou Span B line (twice), that is, a sell signal was formed.       Therefore, long positions needed to be closed and short ones opened. There were no more signals for the rest of the day, so shorts should have been closed manually closer to the evening. Both deals turned out to be profitable, with a total profit of about 35 points. COT report: According to the latest report, non-commercial traders opened 2,800 long positions and closed 2,500 short ones.   The net position increased by 5,300 in just a week and continues to grow. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise. We are approaching a point where the net position has grown too much to expect further growth. We assume that a prolonged bear run may soon begin, even though COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. It is becoming increasingly difficult to believe in it with each passing day. We can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on. However, there are currently no technical sell signals. The pound has gained about 2,500 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 52,300 sell positions and 104,400 long ones. Such a gap suggests the end of the uptrend. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term.  
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EUR/USD Struggles in Flat Market: Assessing Volatility, Interest Rates, and Economic Landscape

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.07.2023 08:59
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to establish itself above the moving average line, failing to surpass the Murray level of "3/8"-1.0925, resuming its downward trend in the latter half of the day. However, to label this movement as a "decline" would be an overstatement, as the day's total volatility was merely 40 points. As such, the past week better embodies the idea of a "flat" market rather than a trending one. Currently, the currency market is experiencing a tranquil period.   The fundamental and macroeconomic landscapes are intact, but the market appears saturated by them. Time and again, macroeconomic reports are in line with market expectations. Statements by representatives of the Fed and ECB do not offer traders any new or crucial information. The euro continues to maintain a relatively high position but has been static in recent weeks. The subject of interest rates is becoming less pertinent to traders. It's worth noting that when a monetary tightening or easing cycle initiates, the market endeavors to anticipate it. If this happens concurrently in two or more countries, as is usually the case, the market also strives to consider all changes preemptively.     For instance, last year, the Fed began raising rates ahead of the ECB, resulting in an initial surge in the dollar's value (taking geopolitics into account). Subsequently, as inflation in the US began to ease, the euro began to appreciate. It has been on an upward trend for the past ten months, although it has been largely consolidating in the 1.05–1.11 range for the last 5–6 months. Consequently, we do not foresee any significant triggers for a sudden upswing in the value of the euro or the dollar.   The pair will likely continue to consolidate within the outlined range, and it might take considerable time before this process reaches completion. The market has already accounted for 90% of all forthcoming interest rate hikes by the Fed and ECB.   Currently, neither the euro nor the dollar holds a distinct advantage. Many experts have been forecasting a downturn, recession, and deceleration for the US economy, particularly for the labor market. These predictions have been circulating since last year, yet official statistics suggest no signs of a looming recession.   Over the past three quarters, the US economy has grown by at least 2%, significantly more than the growth observed in the European Union or Britain. The labor market continues to demonstrate robust performance month after month, even with the Fed's rate escalating to 5.25%. Unemployment has seen minimal growth, while Nonfarm Payrolls consistently reveal at least 200 thousand new job additions each month.     As such, the Fed can continue its monetary tightening policy as required, especially now that inflation has fallen to 4%. This factor might play against the dollar in the medium term. Since inflation is already approaching the target level, the Federal Reserve will begin to soften monetary policy in 2024. It is unknown when the ECB, dealing with higher inflation, will begin to soften. Nevertheless, inflation in the Eurozone continues to decrease steadily. It initially rose more than in the US. Hence, it needs more time to return to 2%. However, the ECB began raising the rate after the Fed. Thus, everything is in its place. The European regulator may start reducing the rate a few months later than the Fed.   The monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB currently does not imply a strong strengthening of the dollar or the euro. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair for the last five trading days as of July 5 is 70 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move between levels 1.0779 and 1.0915 on Wednesday. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a new round of upward movement.
Market Trends and Currency Positioning: USD Net Short Position, Euro and Pound Analysis - 22.08.2023

GBP/USD Analysis: Trading Tips and Transaction Insights for Intraday Traders

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 04.07.2023 09:29
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2679, coinciding with the rise of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of over 30 pips. Pound gained in price after buyers flocked into the market due to the weak manufacturing activity data in both the UK and the US. As for today, markets will be closed in the afternoon due to the Independence Day celebrations in the US. Trading activity will also be limited.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2711 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2744 (thicker green line on the chart). However, do not expect a strong rise in the pair today. When buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2663, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2711 and 1.2744.     For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2663 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2630. Pressure will not be very much today. When selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2711, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2663 and 1.2630.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market       Important:   Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
Services PMIs and Fed Minutes: Analyzing Market Focus and Central Bank Strategy

GBP/USD: Trapped Between Trend Lines, Market Reaction Minimal to GDP Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.07.2023 11:12
On Friday, the GBP/USD pair did not even try to extend its downward movement. Take note that there was an ascending trend line during the entire bearish correction period (already two weeks), and the British currency does not seem like it is going to fall anytime soon.   At the same time, a new descending trend line has formed on the hourly chart, causing the pair to be trapped between two trend lines. On Friday, the UK released its GDP report. If it did provoke a market reaction, it was minimal, as its value for the first quarter fully coincided with the forecasts. There were no significant reports in the US, and secondary data such as personal income and spending, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index with the Consumer Sentiment Index, were unlikely to add pressure on the dollar. Especially considering that the USD has started falling in the morning. Therefore, we tend to believe that the nature of the movements were more technical. It was almost impossible to predict the upward reversal in the morning. On the hourly chart, a new support area was formed at 1.2598-1.2605, from which the pair rebounded. Currently, it is located between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines, and has also tested the trend line. There's a high probability of a rebound and a new downtrend, but the movement is currently volatile. The only signal was formed at the beginning of the US session when the price broke through the Ichimoku indicator lines and the level of 1.2693. It was not the best signal, and traders could only gain 10 pips. But it's better than false signals or losses.     COT report: According to the latest report, non-commercial traders opened 2,800 long positions and closed 2,500 short ones. The net position increased by 5,300 in just a week and continues to grow. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise. We are approaching a point where the net position has grown too much to expect further growth. We assume that a prolonged bear run may soon begin, even though COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. It is becoming increasingly difficult to believe in it with each passing day. We can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on. However, there are currently no technical sell signals. The pound has gained about 2,500 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 52,300 sell positions and 104,400 long ones. Such a gap suggests the end of the uptrend. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term.     1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, although it is correcting at the moment. The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal. However, we still believe that the British currency is overvalued and should fall in the medium term. The fundamental backdrop for the pound is getting weaker. The dollar also lacks a fundamental advantage but has already lost 2,500 pips over the past 10 months and requires a correction. On July 3, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2598-1.2605, 1.2693, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B (1.2737) and Kijun-sen (1.2674) may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Monday, manufacturing PMIs are scheduled for release in both the UK and the US. All the reports, except for the US ISM, will be released in the second estimate, which is unlikely to surprise traders. However, the ISM index may show an unexpected value and, accordingly, stir some market reaction.   Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals.   The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  
USD/JPY Breaks Above 146 Line: Bank of Japan's Core CPI in Focus

The Market Reactivity to PMI Data: Preliminary vs. Final Estimates

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.07.2023 11:08
The market hardly reacts to final data on PMIs as they mostly coincide with preliminary estimates. Any significant trading movements usually occur during the release of the preliminary estimates. By the time the final data is published, the market has already taken these indicators into account. Furthermore, the preliminary estimates are released simultaneously for all indexes, while the final data is released at different times.   For example, today, only the manufacturing PMIs are slated for release, which have the lowest value among all business activity indexes. In other words, even if today's data differs from the preliminary estimates, which is possible, the market response will be relatively moderate, and so we shouldn't expect any significant movements. The preliminary estimate of the UK manufacturing PMI already revealed a decline from 47.1 points to 46.2 points.   The US PMI also fell from 48.4 points to 46.3 points. Therefore, the preliminary estimate already indicated a noticeable decline in the state of the industry. The GBP/USD pair has slowed down its downward cycle around the 1.2600 level, where a reversal occurred amid the weakening of the dollar positions.       As a result, the price returned above the 1.2700 level. On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicated the possibility of a price reversal when reaching oversold territory. On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs reversed, indicating a slowdown in the downward cycle. Outlook In order to raise the volume of long positions, the quote needs to stay above the 1.2750 level. In this case, there may be a subsequent stage of recovery in the value of the British pound relative to the recent corrective move.   As for a subsequent downward move, falling below the 1.0650 level could easily reignite short positions. This will result in updating the local low of the corrective cycle. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term period, technical indicators are pointing to a bearish bias from the 1.2700 level. In the intraday period, there is a primary signal of the end of the corrective phase. In the mid-term, the indicators are pointing to an uptrend.  
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German Disinflationary Trend Pauses for the Summer: Inflation Data and ECB's Outlook

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.06.2023 15:00
German disinflationary trend pauses for the summer German inflation increased in June to 6.4% year-on-year, from 6.1% YoY in May. But what looks like an end to the disinflationary trend of the last few months is only a temporary break. Disinflation should gain more momentum after the summer. According to the just-released first estimate, German headline inflation increased in June, coming in at 6.4% year-on-year (from 6.1% YoY in May). The harmonised European measure showed German headline inflation at 6.8% YoY, from 6.3% in May. This marks an end to the disinflationary trend seen over the last six months. However, a closer look at the data suggests that the disinflationary trend will gain new and even stronger momentum after the summer.   Disinflationary trend has paused, not stopped Inflation data in Germany and many other European countries this year will be surrounded by more statistical noise than usual, making it harder for the European Central Bank to take this data at face value. Government intervention and interference, whether temporary or permanent or occurring this year or last, will continue to blur the picture. Today’s inflation data show that headline inflation is and will be affected by several base effects: while lower energy prices insert downward pressure on inflation, the end of last summer’s temporary government energy relief measures has inserted upward pressure. Looking at monthly price changes actually paints a promising picture of German inflation dynamics. For the third month in a row, food prices have dropped month-on-month. Prices for clothing have dropped for the first time since January; a tentative sign of weaker demand and price discounts. With still lower-than-expected energy prices, dropping food prices and fading pipeline price pressures in both services and manufacturing, German (and eurozone) inflation could come down faster than the ECB expects, at least after the summer. In fact, there is the risk that another chapter will be added to the misconceptions of inflation dynamics: after ‘inflation is dead’ and ‘inflation is transitory’, we could now have ‘inflation will never come down’. Don’t get us wrong, we still believe that, structurally, inflation will be higher over the coming years than pre-pandemic. Demographics, derisking and decarbonisation all argue in favour of upward pressure on price levels. However, be cautious when hearing comments that inflation will never come down. These comments might come from the same sources that only a few years ago argued that inflation would never surge again. This does not mean that the loss in purchasing power as a result of the last inflationary years will be reversed any time soon. It only means that headline inflation can come down faster than currently anticipated. We see German headline inflation falling to around 3% towards the end of the year. Admittedly, the risks to this outlook are obvious: sticky core inflation, wage pressure and government measures to support the demand side of the economy.   ECB will continue to hike ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear at this week’s ECB forum in Sintra that the job is not done, yet. We, however, still think that the ECB is too optimistic about the eurozone’s growth outlook. Historic evidence suggests that core inflation normally lags headline inflation while services inflation lags that of goods. These are two strong arguments for a further slowing of core inflation in the second half of the year and reasons to start doubting the need for further rate hikes. But, the ECB simply cannot afford to be wrong about inflation (again). The Bank wants and has to be sure that it has slayed the inflation dragon before considering a policy change. This is why it is putting more emphasis on actual inflation developments, and why it will rely less on forecasts than in the past. As a consequence, the ECB will not change its tightening stance until core inflation shows clear signs of a turning point and will continue hiking until then. If we are right and the economy remains weak, the disinflationary process gains momentum and core inflation starts to drop after the summer, the ECB’s hiking cycle should end with the September meeting.
Asia Morning Bites: Focus on Regional PMI Figures, China's Caixin Manufacturing Report, and Upcoming FOMC Minutes and US Non-Farm Payrolls"

EUR/USD Trading Strategies: MACD Analysis, Long and Short Positions, and Risk Management

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.06.2023 14:44
The test of 1.0912, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair.   Pressure may return in the pair, following strong labor market data from the US. A decrease in the number of jobless claims will likely fuel dollar demand, along with revised data on 1st quarter GDP. A speech from FOMC member Raphael Bostic also lies ahead, and this will advocate aggressive rate hikes in the near future. After all, many Fed members believe that the US economy copes well with the current high cost of borrowing.   For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0942 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0976. Growth will only be possible after weak labor market data from the US. However, before buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0920, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0942 and 1.0976.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0920 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0887. Pressure will return in the case of hawkish comments from Fed representatives and strong labor market statistics. However, before selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0942, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0920 and 1.0887.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
Pound Slides as Market Reacts Dovishly to Wage Developments

GBP/USD Trading Strategies: Long and Short Positions Based on Chart Analysis and US Economic Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.06.2023 14:38
The test of 1.2645, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the further growth of the pair. Another test occurred short after, and this time it prompted a sell signal, but it did not lead to a strong price decrease.   US labor market data lies ahead, particularly the number of initial jobless claims. GDP data for the first quarter follows, and any decrease in the indicators will likely lead to more pressure on dollar, which will offset buying pressure after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. Meanwhile, the report on the volume of pending home sales will not be of great interest, unlike the statements of FOMC member Raphael Bostic.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2665 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2696 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth may continue in the event of poor US statistics. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2643, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2665 and 1.2696.       For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2643 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2609. Pressure will increase in the case of strong statistics from the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2665, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2643 and 1.2609.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.   MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate.   If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
US Corn and Soybean Crop Conditions Decline, Wheat Harvest Progresses, and Weaker Grain Exports

June 29 Macro Calendar: US Jobless Claims Data and Trading Plans for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.06.2023 14:36
June 29 macroeconomic calendar Today, the US will see the release of its weekly jobless claims data. Figures are projected to grow. Continuing claims are forecast to rise to 1,765,000 from 1,759,000 while initial ones are likely to rise to 265,000 versus 264,000. Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 29 The pair may trade horizontally for a while or bounce due to a sharp price change the day before. Should quotes stay firm below 1.0900, we would see a fall in value. Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 29 Due to a sharp price change in the market, an oversold signal could be generated, which would mean that the pair could come to a standstill or bounce. However, should speculators not respond to technical signals, the price would fall to 1.2550.             What's on chart The candlestick chart shows graphical white and black rectangles with upward and downward lines. While conducting a detailed analysis of each individual candlestick, it is possible to notice its features intrinsic to a particular time frame: the opening price, the closing price, and the highest and lowest price. Horizontal levels are price levels, in relation to which a stop or reversal of the price may occur. They are called support and resistance levels. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in the course of its history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines which can exert pressure on prices in the future. Upward/downward arrows signal a possible future price direction.  
French Economy Faces Challenges Amid Disinflationary Trend

Global Cryptocurrency Awareness Reaches 92%, But Understanding of Blockchain Lags Behind

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.06.2023 09:21
According to the latest study by software company ConsenSys, as many as 92% of people around the world have heard of cryptocurrencies. In a study conducted on a group of 15,158 people in 15 countries, it turned out that despite high awareness, understanding of blockchain technology is much lower.   This proves that digital currencies such as Bitcoin have become a household name. However, only 8% of respondents could confidently say that they knew the general concept of Web3, the decentralized Internet of the future. Although cryptocurrencies and blockchain have gained mainstream awareness, most people do not fully understand what it is all about and need to update their knowledge on the subject. The results of the study show that developing regions of the world show the greatest awareness and interest in cryptocurrencies. Nigeria, South Africa and Brazil lead on this issue. With 99% of Nigerian respondents showing crypto awareness and over 70% correctly defining what blockchain is.     Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $31,002, but the Doji candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move on the H4 time frame chart. The market reversed and is now back inside the trading range. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $29,556 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $30,328.   Moreover, the bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart and on a Daily time frame chart, so the bulls are ready for another wave up. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.  
Plugwalk Joe" Found Guilty: Hacker Convicted for Hijacking Twitter Accounts of Prominent Figures and Attempted Fraud

Plugwalk Joe" Found Guilty: Hacker Convicted for Hijacking Twitter Accounts of Prominent Figures and Attempted Fraud

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.06.2023 09:20
Joseph O'Connor, also known as "Plugwalk Joe", was found guilty of running an advanced hacking campaign that involved hijacking the Twitter accounts of famous people and trying to defraud their followers. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Elon Musk suffered in the case, for example, through whose accounts cryptocurrencies were extorted.   The perpetrator was sentenced to five years in prison. O'Connor was extradited from Spain to the US in April and pleaded guilty to the charges in May.   These included mass hacking of social media accounts, cybercrime and cyberstalking, among others. He and his associates carried out the attack in early 2020. They contacted some Twitter employees by phone and manipulated them into obtaining login details. This gave the hackers access to the website's internal administration tools.     They used this access to post a Bitcoin scam on over 130 celebrity Twitter accounts. According to the Department of Justice (DoJ), they also sold access to some accounts to third parties. In a separate case, O'Connor and his colleagues successfully used SIM swap attacks. This time to compromise three directors of a cryptocurrency company based in Manhattan.   They used the access they gained to divert digital funds currently worth $1.6 million from their wallets. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating the recent gains in a narrow zone with an occasional dip to the level of $1,837 that now will act as the intraday technical support.   The bulls failed to break above the technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 and reversed lower again.The momentum turned into weak and negative after the failed breakout attempt, so now the short-term outlook is looking more bearish. The short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,837 and $1,830 (100 MA).  
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EUR/USD Analysis: MACD Signal Prompts Sell Signal, Eurozone Lending Data and ECB Speeches Drive Demand for Euro

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.06.2023 09:18
The test of 1.0975 on Tuesday afternoon, coinciding with the time when the MACD line was in the overbought area, prompted a sell signal that resulted in a price decrease of around 30 pips. Lending data in the eurozone and speeches from ECB members may maintain demand for euro and continue its upward trend.   Good indicators on M3 money supply aggregate and private sector lending volume in the eurozone may also lead to a new surge in prices. Similarly, hawkish remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, pointing out potential further aggressive actions on the central bank's balance sheet, will also strengthen demand for euro.   For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0958 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0995. An upward movement will continue if lending in the eurozone remains at a normal level, allowing the ECB to raise rates without problems. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0935, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0958 and 1.0995.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0935 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0903. Pressure will return in case of poor statistics from the eurozone. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0958, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0935 and 1.0903.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market     Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.    
Bank of England's Rate Dilemma: A September Hike and the Uncertain Path Ahead

GBP/USD Shows Minimal Volatility Amid Uncertainty and Overbought Conditions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.06.2023 09:13
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade with minimal volatility on Tuesday. The chart below clearly shows the volatility values over the past 30 days. The average value has decreased significantly in recent months. It should be understood that 90 points represent two days at 120 points and three days at 70 points. Trading the pair during these "three days at 70" would be extremely inconvenient and difficult.   The British pound has minimally corrected towards the moving average line but has not formed any signals around it. It continues to rise, but its prospects are still highly uncertain due to having already risen by 2500 points and still needing help to correct properly. As we can see, last week, the Bank of England raised the interest rate by 0.5%, but the pound did not show any growth afterward.       In other words, the British currency, which in 2023 takes any opportunity to rise, refuses to do so when it receives the strongest growth factor! Perhaps the market has already priced in all the Bank of England rate hikes? Its key rate has already risen to 5%, so how many more tightening measures can be objectively expected?   How many of them have the market not yet "discounted"? We did not expect such a strong rate hike from the Bank of England, but even in this case, the essence of the matter remains the same. The Bank of England is still close to completing its tightening cycle. Let's remind ourselves that the US dollar started to decline at the first signs of inflation slowing down. In other words, the market has already factored in almost all future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in advance. We expect something similar from the British pound at the moment. In the 24-hour timeframe, it is evident that there are almost no corrections within the current upward trend. Occasionally, the pair retraces from its local highs by 10-20%, no more.   Therefore, we still believe that the pound is overbought and has risen too strongly, and we expect a decline. The Chief Economist of the Bank of England may surprise the market. There will be a few fundamental events in the UK this week. Today, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Hugh Pill, will deliver a speech, and it will be one of the first appearances by a representative of the British regulator after the regulator raised the rate for the thirteenth consecutive time. Thus, Pill's speech has the potential to be very interesting, but it should be noted that he may very well avoid discussing monetary policy. Therefore, it will all depend on what Mr. Pill communicates.   Naturally, the market will await new information on how much more monetary policy tightening is planned in the UK. Jerome Powell's speech should generate less interest among traders, as the head of the Federal Reserve has been speaking quite frequently lately, and the market more or less understands what to expect from the Fed in the upcoming meetings.   The following can be expected: a rate hike of 0.25% is almost guaranteed in July, and then by the end of the year, at most, one more hike can be expected. Inflation in the US is declining at the highest rates, so raising the rate to 5.75% would be excessive. However, the Federal Reserve is in a hurry to suppress inflation and return to normalcy.   And at the moment, the dollar is hardly reacting to all the efforts of the Fed. It has been falling for almost ten months in a row. Thus, overall, the situation remains the same. The pound may continue to rise, but it has long been due for a downward correction of at least 500-600 points. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 81 points.   For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Wednesday, June 28th, we expect movements within a range limited by the levels of 1.2649 and 1.2811. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will signal a new downward movement phase.  
RBA Governor Announces Major Changes at RBA Board as US Inflation Expected to Decline

Market Stagnation Persists Ahead of Durable Goods Data and Inflation Concerns

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.06.2023 11:08
It's not surprising that the market is simply stagnant. Not only is the economic calendar completely empty, but traders are also focused on a few other things, quite detached from the global economy. However, this cannot go on forever.   Especially since macro data will be published today. And we're not talking about some insignificant data, but about durable goods orders in the United States, which are expected to fall by 0.9%. This means that consumer activity is somewhat declining. Following that, inflation will continue to slow down. So this could prove to be disadvantageous for the dollar today, and the greenback may depreciate.     The GBP/USD pair has once again rebounded from the support level of 1.2700. However, there have been no significant changes on the trading chart, and the quote is still around the low end of the corrective cycle. On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering along the 50 midline, indicating a flat.   On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards. This is a residual signal from the corrective move. Outlook: The sideways movement between 1.2700 and 1.2750 can serve as a consolidation phase, during which sharp price changes are possible. The most optimal tactic would be a breakout strategy based on the range.   In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday period, technical indicators are giving mixed signals due to the flat phase. In the medium-term, the indicators are pointing to an upward cycle.  
Gold Market Sentiment and Analyst Forecasts: Bond Yields and China's Impact

GBP/USD Rebounds from Corrective Level, Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Awaited: Technical Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 14:03
Yesterday, on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair experienced a rebound from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2777), then dropped nearly to 1.2676 and returned to the 1.2777 level. Another rebound from this level will favor the American currency, leading to a decline toward the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2676). If the pair's rate closes above 1.2777, it increases the likelihood of further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.2905).   Trading volumes have been sufficiently high recently, and trader sentiment remains bullish. In a few hours today, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate.   According to forecasts, the rate will increase by 0.25% again, with 7 out of 9 MPC committee members voting in favor of the hike. This decision has already been factored into current prices, but bullish traders are currently very strong and can accommodate the same rate hike twice.   There is no scheduled speech by Andrew Bailey in the economic events calendar; we must rely on meeting minutes and accompanying letters. Despite yesterday's weak inflation report, the market does not expect a 0.50% rate increase today. As a result, Powell's second speech may have an even greater impact on the pair's movement, but the issue is that these two events almost coincide. When the Fed President's speech begins, it will be difficult to determine whether or not the market pays attention to it.     Therefore, we should anticipate active trading today, but it doesn't necessarily mean the pair will move in one direction. It could be a situation similar to yesterday. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has reversed in favor of the British pound and resumed upward toward the 1.2860 level after two bullish divergences were formed in the RSI and CCI indicators. There are no new emerging divergences observed in any indicators today. If the pair's rate rebounds from the 1.2860 level, it would indicate a reversal in favor of the US dollar, resulting in a decline toward the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2674).  
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Bitcoin Surges 24% in 6 Days: Deutsche Bank's Crypto-License Search and Race for Bitcoin ETF Fuel the Rally

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:58
Bitcoin's over 24% increase in just 6 days is due to several significant events. Deutsche Bank's search for a crypto-license and the race to create a Bitcoin ETF fund are the main reasons why BTC began to climb again towards 30,000. USD. On June 15, BlackRock filed a Bitcoin Spot ETF application with the SEC, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Yes, to the same SEC that is pursuing cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance or Coinbase.   It is worth noting that the SEC has definitively rejected such applications in the past, however, the latest attempt was made by the largest player in the asset management market. In reaction to these events, Invesco applied for the creation of such a fund many times in the past. The third applicant turned out to be WisdomTree, which also intends to apply for the creation of a cryptocurrency exchange fund ETF in the United States. An interesting event in the context of the increase in the value of Bitcoin is also WallStreet's support for new digital asset platforms - EDX Markets. Although there is still a long way to ATH, interest in the oldest cryptocurrency is still very high. The actions of the SEC did not scare off investors, which could have been suggested by the record transfer of BTC from crypto-miners.   Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen rallying over 24% from the low made at the level of $24,753, so the last local high made at the level of $30,777. The bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart and on a Daily time frame chart. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.  
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Nike Partners with AntChain for Blockchain-Based Shoe Tracking and Counterfeit Prevention

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:56
Nike has entered into an agreement with the Chinese company AntChain to use its solutions based on blockchain. They are to be used to track shoes (and their users) that Nike equips with chips embedded in the sole For some time, however, some varieties of Nike shoes have been distinguished by chips in the sole, the purpose of which is to trace the origin of the shoes in order to be able to recognize and eliminate counterfeits at any time. It does not stop there.     Last Sunday, June 18, Nike announced a partnership with AntChain, a company belonging to the Alibaba group. The partnership is to use blockchain-based AntChain solutions to track Nike shoes. What's more, the chips in the soles are also supposed to contain dynamically encrypted NFC chips, so that tracking can be done remotely.   Interestingly, Nike has its own blockchain solutions, but concentrates their use in other areas. AntChain, on the other hand, offers its blockchain in a spine-chilling formula called Traceability as a Service (TaaS). Given the state of privacy protection in the Middle Kingdom, it is not surprising that this company can be considered an expert in the field of tracking.   Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair hit the key technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 after a 19% rally from the last swing low. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can haapen any time now.
US Inflation Report Sets the Tone for Upcoming FOMC Meeting

UK Inflation Rate at 8.7% Sparks Expectations of Bank of England Interest Rate Hike: Economic Calendar Highlights and Trading Analysis

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:51
Details of the economic calendar on June 21 UK inflation rate for May amounted to 8.7%, remaining at the level of the previous month. Analytical agencies had predicted a slowdown in price growth to 8.4%. Given this data, there is confidence that the Bank of England will increase its key interest rate. The speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank have become the main leverage for speculators. The speech by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at the conference   "New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment" caused a wave of speculation on the euro. Schnabel clearly indicated that a high level of inflation may persist for a prolonged period. This will lead to subsequent increases in the key interest rate. Almost at the same time as the ECB representative, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, spoke in Congress, but he did not say anything new, only reiterating that most members of the Federal Reserve are inclined to raise the rate by the end of the year, which was already known. Analysis of trading charts from June 21 The EUR/USD currency pair completed a correction phase with a new upward cycle.   During this phase, not only was the local high of the previous week surpassed, but the exchange rate also reached the psychological level of 1.1000. The GBP/USD pair slowed down its correction formation around the 1.2700 level. This led to a partial recovery of long positions, but there are no radical changes on the trading chart. Economic calendar for June 22 Today, market participants will pay special attention to the outcomes of the Bank of England meeting. Investors expect the possibility of a significant interest rate hike after a new inflation shock. Markets are pricing in a 45% probability of a rate increase to 5% at the June meeting and a 55% probability of a more conventional increase of 25 basis points. Special attention will be given to the regulator's comments regarding their view on future inflation and interest rates.     Time targeting: Bank of England meeting outcome – 11:00 UTC Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting – 11:00 UTC Bank of England inflation letter – 12:00 UTC EUR/USD trading plan for June 22 A sharp price change and approaching the key level could have led to the euro being overbought. However, speculators may ignore technical signals if the price continues to hold above the 1.1000 level. In the event of a price rebound from the psychological level, traders will consider a downward scenario.  
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EUR/USD: Bears Struggle as Euro Demand Persists Amid Divergent Policies and Inflation Measures

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:49
For short positions on EUR/USD: Sellers capitulated, and today their hopes are dwindling. The divergent policies of the Fed and the ECB, as well as aggressive statements from European officials regarding further inflation fighting measures, maintain demand for the euro, which is used by the big players. The only thing the bears do is to protect the new resistance level at 1.0997. I will go short on this mark after a rise and a false breakout. It may give a sell signal, pushing EUR/USD to a major support level at 1.0956, formed yesterday.   A decline below this level as well as an upward retest could trigger a downward movement to 1.0911. A more distant target will be the 1.0862 level where I recommend locking in profits. If EUR/USD rises during the European session and bears fail to protect 1.0997, the bullish trend will continue. In this case, I would advise you to postpone short positions until a false breakout of the resistance level of 1.1029. You could sell EUR/USD at a bounce from 1.1029, keeping in mind a downward intraday correction of 30-35 pips.   COT report: According to the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 13, there was a drop in long and short positions. However, this report was released even before the Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate. The regulator decided to skip a rate hike in June this year, which significantly affected market sentiment. For this reason, one should not pay too much attention to the report. Demand for the euro remains high as the ECB remains committed to aggressive tightening. The euro is likely to maintain a bullish bias. The best medium-term strategy is to go long on the decline. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions decreased by 9,922 to 226,138, while short non-commercial positions fell by 3,323 to 74,316. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position dropped and amounted to 151 822 against 158 224. The weekly closing price increased and amounted to 1.0794 against 1.0702.  
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Intraday Analysis: EUR/USD Signal Update, ECB Interview and Price Targets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:48
Yesterday, there was only one entry signal. Now, let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what actually happened. In my morning article, I turned your attention to 1.0933 and recommended making decisions with this level in focus. A rise and a false breakout of this level led to a sell signal, which resulted in a drop of only 20 pips. In the afternoon, there were no signals to enter the market.   For long positions on EUR/USD: Theeuro continued to rise after the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He didn't exactly say anything surprising, and traders expected a bullish scenario for EUR/USD.   Today, the European Central Bank represented by ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta and ECB board member Joachim Nagel are expected to give another interview. We are already aware that politicians will support ECB President Christine Lagarde's plans to fight inflation by betting on a further increase in the cost of borrowing in the eurozone, which will definitely support the euro on its way to break through the 1.1000 level.   The eurozone consumer confidence indicator will not be of much significance as experts do not project drastic changes in June. Like yesterday, I will go long on a decline from the nearest support level at 1.0956, which is in line with the bullish moving averages.   A false breakout there will create a buy signal, and the pair could go back up, and the resistance level will be updated at 1.0997. A breakout and a downward retest of this level will boost demand for the euro, pushing it to a monthly high of 1.1029. A more distant target will be the 1.1060 level where I recommend locking in profits. If EUR/USD declines and bulls fail to defend 1.0956, the demand for the euro will be very weak.   Therefore, only a false breakout of the support level of 1.0911 will create new entry points into long positions. You could buy EUR/USD at a bounce from 1.0862, keeping in mind an upward intraday correction of 30-35 pips.
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Nike Partners with AntChain for Blockchain-Based Shoe Tracking: Eliminating Counterfeits and Ensuring Authenticity

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2023 13:44
Nike has entered into an agreement with the Chinese company AntChain to use its solutions based on blockchain. They are to be used to track shoes (and their users) that Nike equips with chips embedded in the sole For some time, however, some varieties of Nike shoes have been distinguished by chips in the sole, the purpose of which is to trace the origin of the shoes in order to be able to recognize and eliminate counterfeits at any time. It does not stop there.   Last Sunday, June 18, Nike announced a partnership with AntChain, a company belonging to the Alibaba group. The partnership is to use blockchain-based AntChain solutions to track Nike shoes. What's more, the chips in the soles are also supposed to contain dynamically encrypted NFC chips, so that tracking can be done remotely. Interestingly, Nike has its own blockchain solutions, but concentrates their use in other areas. AntChain, on the other hand, offers its blockchain in a spine-chilling formula called Traceability as a Service (TaaS). Given the state of privacy protection in the Middle Kingdom, it is not surprising that this company can be considered an expert in the field of tracking.         Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair hit the key technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 after a 19% rally from the last swing low. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can haapen any time now.  
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EUR/USD: Low Volatility Persists as Market Awaits Directional Catalysts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2023 09:47
The EUR/USD pair has been going through low volatility and volume. The chart above may suggest that the pair moved quite actively, but in reality, there was only a 53-pip range between the day's high and low. Thus, we have witnessed the third consecutive boring and uninteresting day. Yesterday's only notable report was the number of approved construction permits in the United States. The report turned out slightly better than expected, which helped strengthen the dollar to some extent. But what kind of reaction are we talking about?   A mere 20 pips, which is not interesting at all and does not affect the current technical picture. The pair continues to correct sluggishly downward against an empty calendar. Yesterday, one signal was even formed. During the European trading session, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.0943 and then moved down by the aforementioned 50 pips. However, the price could not reach the target level by the end of the day, and no further signals were formed. Therefore, it was advisable to manually close the sell trade anywhere closer to the evening. It was possible to earn around 30 pips from it, which is not bad considering the current volatility. COT report: On Friday, a new COT report for June 6 was released. In the last 9 months, COT reports have fully corresponded to what is happening on the market. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of big traders (the second indicator) began to grow again in September 2022.   At the same time, the euro resumed an upward movement. The net position of non-commercial traders is bullish. The euro is trading at its highs against the US dollar. I have already mentioned that a fairly high value of the "net position" indicates the end of the uptrend. The first indicator also signals such a possibility as the red and green lines are very far from each other. It often occurs before the end of the trend. The euro tried to start falling a few months ago but there was only a pullback. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions of the "Non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 5,700 and the number of short positions rose by 1,500. The number of long positions is higher than the number of short ones. This is a very large gap. The number of long positions is 59,000 higher than short ones.     The difference is more than three times. The correction has begun. Yet, it may not be a correction but the start of a new downtrend. At this time, it is clear that the pair is likely to resume a downward movement without COT reports. 1H chart of EUR/USD In the 1-hour chart, the pair is trying to start an uptrend but there are no drivers for growth. Last week, there were many events that bolstered its rise. However, in the medium term, there are still no reasons to go long. Technical indicators signal an uptrend.   It would be better not to sell the pair now. We need to wait at least for consolidation below the trend line and the target level. On June 21, trading levels are seen at 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0762, 1.0806, 1.0868, 1.0943, 1.1092, 1.1137, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0766) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0889) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance although no signals are made near these levels.   Signals could be made when the price either breaks or bounces from these extreme levels. Do not forget to place Stop Loss at the breakeven point when the price goes by 15 pips in the right direction. In case of a false breakout, it could save you from possible losses. Several ECB and Fed officials are scheduled to deliver speeches today. However, traders are likely to ignore their statements. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver an important speech in Congress. The main focus is on that.  
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GBP/USD: Uptrend Persists Amidst Market Volatility and Key Events

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2023 09:41
GBP/USD extended its downward movement on Tuesday, but in general, it remains stable. After a three-day correction, the pair barely managed to test the critical line without surpassing it. Thus, the uptrend persists ahead of an important inflation report in the UK, the Bank of England's meeting, and two speeches by Jerome Powell in the US Congress.   It is evident that these events will impact market sentiment, but it is currently impossible to determine how exactly. We need to be prepared for any developments. We believe that in the medium term, the pound should fall rather than rise, but the market currently holds a different opinion. We do not see any signs of the upward trend coming to an end. There were several trading signals on Tuesday. Initially, the pair bounced off the level of 1.2762, providing a buy signal. Following this signal, the price moved up by about 26 pips, which was enough to set the stop-loss at breakeven. Subsequently, there was a consolidation below the level of 1.2762, after which the pair dropped to the critical line but failed to surpass it. Consequently, it was advisable to close the short position at that point. The profit amounted to approximately 20 pips. The last buy signal formed quite late, but it could have been attempted. It resulted in an additional profit of 10-20 pips. Since the volatility was relatively low, such a level of profit was acceptable.   COT report: According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 5,200 long positions and 4,500 short ones. The net position dropped by 700 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. In fact, sentiment is now bullish, but it is a pure formality. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run may soon begin even though COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on. The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed.   Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 52,500 sell positions and 65,000 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term. 1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, although it is correcting at the moment. The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal but I believe that further growth of the British currency is groundless. The pound sterling has been climbing for too long and downward corrections are short-lived (like in the last three days). Judging by the technical indicators, we have an uptrend. It is not advisable to sell the pair without proper signals. The market can sustain the trend even without a "fundamental" basis. On June 21, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B (1.2532) and Kijun-sen (1.2739) may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Wednesday, the UK has the most important inflation report, and in the US - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's first address to the Congress. Thus, it could be an interesting and volatile day. We think that the fall is more likely, but the pair also maintains a bullish bias and the market can start buying the pound again on any background.  
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BTC Miners Send Largest Bitcoin Transfer to Exchanges in 5 Years; SEC's Impact on Market Watched

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2023 09:15
Crypto Industry News: Over the past week, BTC miners have been sending their Bitcoins to exchanges en masse. It is worth adding that according to the Glassnode analytical platform, this is the largest BTC transfer to trading platforms in the last 5 years.   The cryptocurrency community is watching the actions of the SEC and sees the impact on the market. The miners' actions may be a preventive sale of their BTC, for fear of further declines. The first cryptocurrency established by Satoshi Nakamoto is still going strong. Miners are constantly mining more Bitcoins, and the value of this cryptocurrency is currently around $26,000 for one BTC.   Bitcoin is currently more than 60% away from its ATH. The outflow of BTC to trading platforms is very clearly visible and it is the largest transfer in the last 5 years. Nevertheless, the miners of the first cryptocurrency still hold 1.829 million BTC, which is worth about $50 billion in total. The BTC transfer was most visible after the actions of the American SEC regarding the Coinbase and Binance exchanges.   On June 11, experts from Glassnode reported a significant BTC transfer by miners in just a week. USD 70.8 million worth of Bitcoins entered the exchanges.   This is the third record BTC inflow, but lower by USD 30.2 million from the record USD 101 million recorded during the 2021 bull market.   Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen rallying over 17% from the low made at the level of $24,753, so the last local high made at the time of writing the analysis was located at $28,996. The bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, but the next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.    
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IMF Chief Georgieva: Cryptocurrencies Speculative Assets, Not Currencies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2023 09:12
Georgieva also entered the topic of cryptocurrencies. She emphasized that in her eyes these are rather "speculative" assets, not currencies. This should not surprise us, because the institution managed by it has long approached bitcoin with reserve.   She opposed, for example, the adoption of bitcoin in El Salvador and the recognition by the government of President Nayib Bukele of cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The IMF claimed that the government's policy would worsen the country's economic situation. As we know, that didn't happen. On the contrary: Bukele's actions improved the image of his country and strengthened local tourism. This does not change the fact that the IMF will rather not seek to strengthen bitcoin adoption, because politicians cannot control cryptocurrencies to the same extent as CBDC. Georgieva also entered the topic of cryptocurrencies.   She emphasized that in her eyes these are rather "speculative" assets, not currencies. This should not surprise us, because the institution managed by it has long approached bitcoin with reserve. She opposed, for example, the adoption of bitcoin in El Salvador and the recognition by the government of President Nayib Bukele of cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The IMF claimed that the government's policy would worsen the country's economic situation. As we know that didn't happen.   On the contrary: Bukele's actions improved the image of his country and strengthened local tourism. This does not change the fact that the IMF will rather not seek to strengthen bitcoin adoption, because politicians cannot control cryptocurrencies to the same extent as CBDC. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $1,758 and hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,811. The local high was made at the level of $1,825 (at the time of writing the analysis).   The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can happen soon. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart. Please notice, the Ethereum market rallied over 12% from the low made at the level of $1,620.      
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EUR/USD Analysis and Trading Tips: Identifying Entry Points and Managing Risks

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:52
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The test of 1.0929 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. The Bundesbank report dealt no impact on market sentiment yesterday, allowing EUR/USD to rise, albeit briefly.     This momentum may extend to today as the data on ECB's balance of payments will not affect the pair's direction, while the speech of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, which will undoubtedly maintain a hawkish tone, will sustain demand for euro even under current conditions. Market volatility will most likely return today.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0935 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0964. Although a strong growth may not appear today, buyers will start returning to the market, leading to the strengthening of the pair. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0911, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0935 and 1.0964.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0911 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0878. Pressure may return in the event of inactivity at the daily highs. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0935, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0911 and 1.0878.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  
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Tips and Analysis for Trading GBP/USD: Identifying Entry Points and Managing Risks

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:49
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The price test of 1.2795 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the significant drop of the MACD line from zero, limited the downward potential of the pair. The empty economic calendar today may fuel pressure on pound, leading to a more significant downward correction. For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2795 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2840 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth could occur after a breakdown of 1.2795. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it.   Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2768, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2795 and 1.2840. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2768 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2728. Pressure may return in the event of inactivity at the highs. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2795, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2768 and 1.2728. What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/346532
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Symbolic Stagnation: Pound's Sideways Movement Amid Empty Economic Calendar

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:44
As expected, the market continues to move sideways. Technically, the pound has dipped, but the scale of the movement is so insignificant that it can be categorized as symbolic. The stagnation is mainly due to the empty economic calendar and the lack of any significant news capable of influencing market participants' sentiment.   It is difficult to say anything about today's news because we don't know what can happen. However, as I mentioned, the economic calendar remains empty. It seems that today we will continue to witness a purely symbolic weakening of the pound. The GBP/USD pair has slowed down its upward cycle around the 1.2850 level, which points to the decline in the volume of long positions. This has led to a pullback, which, considering the overbought status of the British currency, is considered a justified move in the market.   On the four-hour chart, the RSI has left the overbought territory when the pair reversed its course, which could serve as a stage for force realignment. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the upward cycle. Outlook: The pullback is still relevant, but it does not disrupt the rhythmic component of the uptrend.   If this persists, the price could move towards the 1.2700 level. Regarding the bullish scenario, we will receive a technical signal for the continuation of the medium-term trend once the price stays above the 1.2850 level. In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday periods, technical indicators suggest a pullback. In the mid-term period, indicators are reflecting an uptrend.  
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Monday's Uncertainty: Low Volatility, Speeches, and Trading Rules

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:43
Monday was uneventful. There are no significant economic reports scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, and all the fundamental events are of secondary importance. Monday was a low volume trading day and both pairs had a slight inclination to correct after a strong rally last week.   The same situation will probably persist today. Among the economic events, the only one worth mentioning is the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States. Even with an empty events calendar, such a report can still provoke a market reaction. But what kind of reaction exactly? For example, on Friday, when volatility was also quite low, the US Consumer Sentiment Index triggered a 30-point reaction (approximately). We might witness the same reaction today.   The main point is that volatility is still low, which makes it difficult to trade, regardless of whether there are reports or not. Analysis of fundamental events: Among today's fundamental events, the speeches by European Central Bank representatives Andrea Enria, Luis de Guindos, and Elizabeth McCaul stand out. De Guindos has already spoken earlier, and Enria and McCaul clearly carry less weight in the eyes of traders compared to Schnabel and Lane. Therefore, if traders did not react to yesterday's speeches, it is even less likely that they would today. In the US, you can look forward to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials John Williams and James Bullard. However, Bullard does not have voting rights this year, so his hawkish stance (which is expected) is unlikely to affect morale.   As for John Williams, the US central bank held a meeting just last week and we have already heard all the necessary information. Furthermore, on Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speeches in Congress will attract much more attention. General conclusions: There are few important fundamental and economic events.   You can pay attention to the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States, as it is the only event that can truly provoke a reaction on a potentially low volume trading day. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each   
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Limited Market Activity and Focus on Building Permits: An Analysis of Monday's Trading Conditions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:40
Monday was uneventful. There are no significant economic reports scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, and all the fundamental events are of secondary importance. Monday was a low volume trading day and both pairs had a slight inclination to correct after a strong rally last week.   The same situation will probably persist today. Among the economic events, the only one worth mentioning is the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States. Even with an empty events calendar, such a report can still provoke a market reaction. But what kind of reaction exactly?   For example, on Friday, when volatility was also quite low, the US Consumer Sentiment Index triggered a 30-point reaction (approximately). We might witness the same reaction today. The main point is that volatility is still low, which makes it difficult to trade, regardless of whether there are reports or not.   Analysis of fundamental events: Among today's fundamental events, the speeches by European Central Bank representatives Andrea Enria, Luis de Guindos, and Elizabeth McCaul stand out. De Guindos has already spoken earlier, and Enria and McCaul clearly carry less weight in the eyes of traders compared to Schnabel and Lane.   Therefore, if traders did not react to yesterday's speeches, it is even less likely that they would today. In the US, you can look forward to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials John Williams and James Bullard. However, Bullard does not have voting rights this year, so his hawkish stance (which is expected) is unlikely to affect morale. As for John Williams, the US central bank held a meeting just last week and we have already heard all the necessary information.   Furthermore, on Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speeches in Congress will attract much more attention. General conclusions: There are few important fundamental and economic events.   You can pay attention to the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States, as it is the only event that can truly provoke a reaction on a potentially low volume trading day. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.  
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GBP/USD: Analyzing the Reluctant Downward Movement and Anticipating Volatility Ahead

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:39
GBP/USD edged down on Monday. This is a classic depiction of how the pound is currently being traded. When it rises, the movement is sharp, but when it falls, it only edges down. It can rise even without macroeconomic or fundamental reasons, but it is reluctant to fall, even when there are corresponding causes.     For example, yesterday there was an excellent opportunity for a correction based on pure technicals. The pair could have fallen simply because it was overbought. However, instead of a significant correction, we saw the pair reverse its course by just 30 pips amidst a low-volume trading day. Throughout the day, neither the UK nor the US had any important events or reports. Speaking of trading signals, there was nothing notable about it. The pair did not even come close to any significant levels or lines.   This is probably a good thing because weak movements bordering on a flat can lead to false signals. Traders have been fortunate with the euro, but there simply hasn't been any signal for the pound. COT report: According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 5,200 long positions and 4,500 short ones. The net position dropped by 700 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. In fact, sentiment is now bullish, but it is a pure formality. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run may soon begin even though COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.   The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 52,500 sell positions and 65,000 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term. 1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias.   The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal but I believe that further growth of the British currency is groundless. The pound sterling has been climbing for too long and downward corrections are short-lived. Judging by the technical indicators, we have an uptrend. Yet, it is hard to find the reasons which may push it higher. However, it is naturally not advisable to sell the pair without proper signals. The market can sustain the trend even without a "fundamental" basis.   On June 20, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B (1.2494) and Kijun-sen (1.2724) may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits.   There are no significant events lined up in the UK, and only a few secondary events in the US. We believe that volatility may edge up today, as the Bank of England's meeting and the UK inflation report will be published later this week. The market may start to anticipate and react to this data in advance.  
EUR/USD: Analyzing the Fundamental Factors and Expectations for a Downward Correction

EUR/USD: Analyzing the Fundamental Factors and Expectations for a Downward Correction

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:38
The EUR/USD currency pair did not show high volatility on Monday and started a weak downward correction, as we anticipated. In principle, the market sentiment was not influenced by the planned fundamental events (we will discuss them below). And perhaps they were not supposed to. Recall that the EUR/USD pair is in a strong upward correction after its monthly decline. Corrections can vary. Those that are truly worth highlighting range from 30% to 100%. This time, the euro could have corrected by 60–70%, and there is nothing strange or surprising about that. We have mentioned many times in recent months that the euro currency is significantly overbought and is positioned too high, given the fundamental backdrop at its disposal.     Therefore, we expect only one thing - a decline. Lately, the interest rate factor has come to the forefront again. The markets received new information from the Fed and the ECB, and it unexpectedly turned out that both central banks are willing to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than was previously thought a couple of months ago.   The ECB believes that the rate may continue to rise in the autumn, while the Fed has stated that the rate may increase one or two more times. However, in any case, both central banks are ready to continue tightening beyond the "planned" levels. Thus, there are no advantages for the euro currency over the dollar after it has already risen by 1550 points in the past three quarters. Furthermore, the Fed's rate is higher than the ECB's rate and will remain so because the ECB does not have the same capabilities as the US regulator. Additionally, the Eurozone economy has shown a 0.1% contraction in the last two quarters, unlike the US economy, which still exists although its growth rates are decreasing. Not to mention the state of the labor market and unemployment.   In the United States, these indicators are in good order, while unemployment in the EU stands at 6.5%. Thus, the path for the euro currency is only downward if the fundamental backdrop has any significance. ECB Chief Economist Philipp Lane stated on Monday that a rate hike in July would be appropriate. With this statement, he certainly did not reveal anything groundbreaking. We have mentioned many times that we should expect three more rate hikes after slowing down the pace of monetary policy tightening to a minimum.   Therefore, the rate will rise to 4.25%. This is not news or an intensification of the regulator's "hawkish" stance, so the market did not react to this statement. Similarly, the statements made by Luis de Guindos and Isabel Schnabel should have been addressed. Mr. Lane stated that inflation in the Eurozone would fall to 2% in the coming years, which speaks to the regulator's need for more urgency. In other words, he is not striving, like the Fed, to return inflation to 2% in the shortest possible time (they even started raising rates six months later).   Indirectly, this indicates that the rate will only rise for a short time. And if so, it will rise to 4.25% or a maximum of 4.5%. In other words, one or two more times. That's how many times the Fed's rate can rise this year. And if inflation in the EU continues to decrease at normal rates, it will not make sense to continue tightening monetary policy, driving its economy into a recession.   After all, what is the ECB's calculation? Even a few quarters of negative growth are fine. The rate will decrease when inflation approaches 2%, and the economy will accelerate. However, the higher the rate rises in 2023, the stronger the economy will fall. It may take a long time to solve the recession problem.   The conclusion is that the euro currency has no grounds for further growth against the US dollar. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair for the past five trading days, as of June 20th, is 77 points and is characterized as "average." Therefore, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0843 and 1.0977 on Tuesday. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upwards will indicate a resumption of the upward movement.    
Government Bond Auctions: Italy, Germany, and Portugal Offerings

GBP/USD: Strong Upward Trend Raises Concerns and Questions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.06.2023 09:35
The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a slight correction on Monday but remained in a strong, short-term, upward trend. The current trend period raises many questions, as we have discussed before. Such explosive growth, reminiscent of Bitcoin, often serves as a precursor to a prolonged decline. Traders are using the last chance to buy in fully, but they will soon start to take profits on long positions, which will be a harbinger of a new downward trend. Of course, this is just a hypothesis, and any hypothesis requires confirmation. So far, there are none.   However, let's draw traders' attention again: even in the short term, the pound shows such strong growth that it needs to be more consistent with the macroeconomic and fundamental background. Over the past few months, we have repeatedly mentioned that we expect a decline in the British pound. The decline has yet to begin, and the British currency cannot even correct itself properly, especially in the 24-hour time frame. Let's ask ourselves: Is the British economy really that strong, and is the Bank of England's stance aggressive enough for the pound to show a rise of 2500 in three quarters? The answer is obvious. Of course, part of this trend should be attributed to a simple technical correction after a significant decline.   Another part of the trend is the pound's recovery after Liz Truss's departure. But even with these two "buts," it seems too much. Interestingly, such a momentum trend can continue for some time. The market sees that the pound is growing and logically continues to buy, even though there are no grounds for it. Therefore, the conclusion remains the same: the pound is rising illogically, and at any moment, this growth may end with a crash, but the upward trend can continue for as long as the market deems necessary, largely ignoring the fundamental background.   Events this week may cause a decline in the pound This week, the Bank of England will hold its regular meeting in the UK. The key rate is likely to increase for the thirteenth consecutive time, which is unsurprising. We receive very few comments and forecasts from Bank of England representatives, making it extremely difficult to predict the regulator's future actions. However, the market does not doubt that monetary policy will be tightened again.   If so, this decision has already been priced in. However, if even one "dovish" hint comes from the Bank of England's corridors, it could end badly for the pound. It is evident to everyone that the Bank of England can only maintain elevated interest rates for a limited period. The rate has already reached 4.5%, and after a deceleration in the tightening pace, two 0.25% rate hikes have already been implemented. This week might witness the occurrence of the third and final hike. The British economy has teetered on the brink of recession for four consecutive quarters, and each subsequent rate increase further raises the likelihood of a recession commencing within this year. However, we have been aware of all these factors for quite some time.       On Monday, there were no noteworthy developments concerning the dollar or the pound. Tuesday will also have scarce news. The real excitement will commence on Wednesday when Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, makes his debut appearance in Congress. This event might go unnoticed, as Mr. Powell will provide an account of the Federal Reserve's operations and respond to inquiries from senators and congress members. Since the Federal Reserve is an independent entity not subject to the control of the US government, Powell has no reason to fear. He will not face job loss and can address questions according to his own judgment. It is no secret that US authorities would prefer a less aggressive monetary policy since the regulator's actions have led to a banking crisis. But again, Powell and his colleagues have a different view on this matter: inflation is their top priority. We do not expect any "dovish" statements from Jerome. Accordingly, we do not expect the dollar to weaken after his speeches in Congress. The pound has excellent chances of starting a decline this week if the fundamental background means anything to the market.    
Analyzing Central Bank Statements: Powell vs. Lagarde and Their Impact on EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Bank of Japan's Dovish Stance and the Yen's Fate: Will it Bounce Back or Face Further Decline?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.06.2023 10:44
On Friday morning, JPY dropped to a 7-month low against the US dollar and reached its lowest level in 15 years against the euro as traders anticipated a dovish decision from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The market's predictions were accurate. Once again, the Bank of Japan remained committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy. Does this mean a death sentence for the yen? The Bank of Japan continues to stand apart from its hawkish counterparts. On Friday morning, it was announced that the regulator maintained its dovish monetary policy despite the increasing inflationary pressure in the country.   Interest rates in Japan remained negative (-0.1%), and the yield on 10-year bonds remained at zero. The BOJ also made no changes to its yield curve control mechanism, although some market participants had high hopes for the regulator to make hawkish moves. The Japanese central bank justified its decision by stating that its top priority at the moment is to support the fragile economic recovery amidst a sharp slowdown in the global economy. Recent tightening rounds in Australia, Canada, and Europe have once again increased the risk of a global recession. In such conditions, the BOJ simply cannot afford to begin normalization of its monetary policy, even though price growth in the country continues to gain momentum.   In April, Japan's core consumer inflation reached 3.4%. The indicator has persistently remained above the BOJ's 2% target for over a year. However, until recently, the regulator considered the price growth a temporary phenomenon and expected a significant decline in inflation in the current fiscal year to 1.8%. Nevertheless, analysts have compelling reasons to believe that during its next quarterly review scheduled for July, the Bank of Japan may significantly revise its previous price growth forecast upward.     Market participants expect that during today's press conference, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will certainly address this issue. If the official indicates that the interpretation of "temporary" in relation to inflation has lost its relevance and that the regulator now expects further strengthening of price pressure in the country, it could trigger another wave of speculation about a possible change in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan in the second half of the year.   Such a scenario could support the yen, which has significantly weakened recently against the dollar, euro, and pound sterling. This week, the USD/JPY pair reached its highest level since November last year at 141.50.     Against the euro, the yen dropped to a 15-year low of 153.685, and against the British pound, it fell to its lowest level in 7 years at 178.34. The weakening of the yen against these currencies was fueled by growing investor concerns about the increasing monetary divergence between the Bank of Japan and its counterparts (the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England). Although the US regulator did not raise interest rates this month, it signaled the possibility of continued aggressive policy in the country. According to the updated dot plot from the Federal Reserve, American policymakers are counting on at least two 25-basis-point rate hikes this year. On Thursday, the European Central Bank, as expected, raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point and indicated that it sees potential for further tightening. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that a rate increase in July is highly likely.     As for the Bank of England, in May, the regulator also raised interest rates by 25 basis points and warned of the possibility of further hawkish moves if inflationary pressure does not begin to ease. The fact that major regulators can raise their rates even further, thereby widening the already significant gap with the Japanese central bank, is undoubtedly a negative factor for the yen.   Currently, JPY remains the most attractive currency for carry trading. If investors fail to detect even the slightest hawkish signal in the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor today, it could intensify the sell-off in the yen across multiple directions. However, it is important to remember that excessive depreciation of JPY poses a significant risk at the moment, as Japanese authorities have noticeably stepped up their warnings about currency intervention. "I don't think the government will actually intervene in the market unless the dollar trades below 145 against the yen. But verbal interventions can also have a significant impact on trader sentiment. The risk of intervention by Japanese authorities is the only reason to buy yen at this stage," shared Marito Ueda, an analyst at SBI Liquidity Market. Conclusion As we can see, it is still too early to give up on the yen. Firstly, there is still a chance for it to rise if the Bank of Japan changes its inflation expectations. Secondly, JPY may strengthen even if the regulator maintains its current stance. In this case, we will likely see a sharp rise in the yen followed by a similarly rapid recovery amidst verbal or actual interventions by the Japanese government.
RBA Expected to Pause as Inflation Moves in the Right Direction

GBP/USD Accelerates as US Data Disappoints: Pound Extends Illogical Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.06.2023 10:41
GBP/USD accelerates on Friday. Yesterday, there were no significant events lined up in the UK, but the US data turned out to be slightly weaker than expected. Reports on unemployment claims and industrial production were worse than traders' expectations, but there were also reports that exceeded forecasts (retail sales).   Therefore, if the US data were not in favor of the dollar, it was not to the extent that it would fall by 140 pips in a day. On the other hand, the European Central Bank held its meeting, the results of which had no relation to the pound. In addition, the market had already expected its results a couple of weeks ago, if not more. And despite all that the pound still rallied, even more strongly than the euro. Thus, the pound extends its illogical growth. The first sell signal near the 1.2659 level turned out to be false. The price could not move in the right direction even by 20 pips, so the short position closed with a small loss at the beginning of the US trading session when a buy signal appeared. Later, the pair confidently rose to the 1.2762 level and surpassed it. No sell signals were formed for the rest of the day, so traders could close their long positions anywhere.     The profit from this trade amounted to at least 100 pips. COT report: According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 5,200 long positions and 4,500 short ones. The net position dropped by 700 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. In fact, sentiment is now bullish, but it is a pure formality. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run may soon begin even though COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.     The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 52,500 sell positions and 65,000 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term. 1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour chart, maintains a bullish bias. The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal but I believe that further growth of the British currency is groundless. The pound sterling has been climbing for too long and downward corrections are short-lived. Judging by the technical indicators, we have an uptrend.   Yet, it is hard to find the reasons which may push it higher. Nevertheless, the market has no logical reason to buy at the moment. On June 16, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2472) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2638) may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Friday, there are no important events lined up in the UK, while the US will only release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Since there are no significant events today, we might witness a slight bearish correction. However, the pound can still rise since it doesn't need any logical reason behind it.
Bank of Japan Keeps Policy Unchanged, Eyes Inflation and Economic Recovery for Potential Shifts

Bank of Japan Keeps Policy Unchanged, Eyes Inflation and Economic Recovery for Potential Shifts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.06.2023 10:36
Despite the fact that the European Central Bank has much more reasons to consider lowering interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, the ECB not only raised the refinancing rate but Lagarde practically stated that there would be another rate hike in July. This decision not only contradicts expectations but also goes against common sense to some extent. Of course, this resulted in the dollar's decline, thereby reducing the pressure caused by its apparent overbought condition. However, the European economy is facing serious difficulties associated with the increased cost of energy resources.   The European industry suffers the most. Many, including in the West, are already openly calling what is happening the deindustrialization of Europe. And a strong dollar may somewhat alleviate this negative trend. So, the decisions and intentions of the ECB are more harmful than beneficial to the European economy. Especially considering that inflation in the euro area is slowing down as fast as in the United States. Today's inflation report should confirm the fact of its slowdown from 7.0% to 6.1%. And don't think that the ECB was unaware of this yesterday because we are talking about final data.   The preliminary assessment was already available two weeks ago. In such a situation, the most reasonable approach would have been not to touch interest rates and observe the developments for at least two or three months.   Frankly speaking, the ECB's actions are raising more and more questions. And this naturally leads to an increase in concerns, which are usually referred to as uncertainty risks. Investors typically try to stay away from such risks. Therefore, the euro's substantial growth, which pulled the pound along, is likely to be unsustainable and probably won't last long. The GBP/USD pair has surged in value by nearly 300 pips since the beginning of the trading week.     This movement has resulted in the extension of the medium-term uptrend. Take note that such an intense price change has triggered a technical signal of the pound's overbought conditions. On the four-hour chart, the RSI is at its highest level since autumn 2022, indicating a technical signal of overbought conditions.   On the same timeframe the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which points to an upward cycle. Outlook In this case, speculators are disregarding the overbought status, as evidenced by the sustained momentum and the absence of a proper correction. However, this process cannot persist indefinitely, and sooner or later, there will be a liquidation of long positions, leading to a pullback. Until then, traders will consider the psychological level of 1.3000 as the main resistance level.  
Euro's Rally Stalls as Focus Turns to Inflation and Data Disappointments

EUR/USD Analysis: False Breakout at Key Level Sets the Tone for Trading Amid US Inflation Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.06.2023 14:16
In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0800 and recommended making entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.0800 provided a sell signal for the euro, but there was no significant downward movement. The technical picture remained largely unchanged in the second half of the day.       Everyone awaits the US inflation figures, which will determine the market and the Federal Reserve's actions. If prices drop more than economists' expectations, the euro will have a chance to continue rising against the US dollar, as the central bank is likely to take the first pause in the interest rate hike cycle since 2021. If inflation remains high, we can expect renewed pressure on EUR/USD and a decline in the pair. In that case, I will act on the decline and the false breakout around the support level of 1.0767, formed based on yesterday's close and where the moving averages, favoring buyers, are located.   This will provide an opportunity to enter long positions with the target of another rise towards the level of 1.0800. A breakthrough and top-down test of this range are necessary for buyers, as it will strengthen the demand for the euro, creating an additional entry point for increasing long positions with an update to the next level of 1.0830. The ultimate target remains around 1.0870, where I will take profits. In the case of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.0767, the pressure on the euro will return. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakout around the next support level of 1.0734, the weekly low, will provide a signal to buy the euro.   I will open long positions after a rebound from 1.0705, with a 30-35 point upward correction target within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required: Bears managed to defend the market around the resistance level of 1.0800, but there was no significant downward movement. The US inflation data will determine everything. However, considering the bullish market with selling pressure in the second half of the day, it is better to take your time.   I will act only after another unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance level of 1.0800. A false breakout at this level will provide a sell signal capable of pushing the pair back to 1.0767, where the moving averages favoring bulls are located. Consolidation below this range and a reverse test from below to above will lead straight to 1.0734. The ultimate target will be around 1.0705, where I will take profits.       If EUR/USD moves upward during the American session and there are no bears at 1.0800, which is likely to be the case, the demand for the euro will only strengthen, potentially leading to a more powerful upward surge in the pair. In that case, I will postpone short positions until the new resistance level of 1.0830.   Selling can be done there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I will open short positions immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.0870, with a 30-35 point downward correction target.   The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 6 showed a decrease in long positions and a slight increase in short positions. Despite this, the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates this week can significantly change the market dynamics, so paying much attention to the abovementioned changes may be optional. If the Fed decides to pause the rate hike cycle, the euro will gain significant weight, and the US dollar will weaken.   Along with the European Central Bank's aggressive policy, despite the first signs of a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressure, all of this will lead to a continued rise in risk assets against the US dollar. According to the COT report, non-commercial long positions decreased by 5,757 to 236,060, while non-commercial short positions increased by 1,457 to 77,060. The overall non-commercial net position decreased to 158,224 from 163,054 by the end of the week. The weekly closing price decreased to 1.0702 from 1.0732.   Indicator signals: Moving averages. Trading occurs above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a likelihood of the euro's rise. Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly chart (H1), which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).  
Gold Trading Analysis: Technical Signals and Price Movements

EUR/USD Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategies Amid Market Volatility and US Inflation Data

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.06.2023 14:14
The test of 1.0798, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Clearly, market players preferred not to force events amid low volatility ahead of important data and mixed ZEW indicators Key inflation data from the US will come out today. A decline in the figure will continue the upward trend, while a similar or worse-than-expected data will allow traders to buy euro on a dip. Do not consider selling EUR/USD in the current conditions.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0803 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0853. Growth could occur amid a slowdown in US inflationary pressures. However, before buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0773, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0803 and 1.0853.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0773 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0735. Pressure will return after a sharp increase in US prices. However, before selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0803, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0773 and 1.0735.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.   And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trade.  
GBP/USD Trading Plan: Bulls Eyeing Further Growth, Resistance Level Holds Key, COT Report Signals Interest Rate Expectations

GBP/USD Trading Plan: Bulls Eyeing Further Growth, Resistance Level Holds Key, COT Report Signals Interest Rate Expectations

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.06.2023 14:11
Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on June 13 (analysis of morning deals). The pound climbed above 1.2553. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2553 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The breakout and subsequent retest from above to below 1.2553 provided a buy signal, resulting in an upward movement of 18 pips. The technical picture has stayed the same for the second half of the day.       To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following conditions are required: As long as trading continues above 1.2553, further growth in GBP/USD can be expected. Buyers will particularly show themselves after news of a decrease in inflation in the US, leading to a surge in the pound to monthly highs of around 1.2596. Having another entry point around 1.2553 would be desirable, so protecting this level remains a priority task for the bulls. A breakout and retest from above to below 1.2596, similar to what I discussed earlier, will provide an additional signal to open long positions, strengthening the presence of bulls with a movement towards 1.2636, reinforcing the upward trend.   The ultimate target will be the area of 1.2674, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a pound decline towards 1.2553 and a lack of activity from buyers, pressure on the pair will return. The persistence of high inflation in the US will also limit the upside potential of the pair. In that case, I will postpone market entry until the support at 1.2516 is reached. I will only open long positions there on a false breakout.   I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from 1.2479, targeting a 30-35 pip correction within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following conditions are required: Sellers were unable to show anything after the news that the unemployment rate in the UK dropped to a record 3.8%, which puts pressure on the Bank of England to continue raising rates. All hope now lies with strong inflation in the US, which will help defend 1.2596.   I will only open short positions after GBP/USD rises to monthly highs, forming a false breakout. This will allow a downward move towards support at 1.2553, which acted as resistance earlier in the morning. A breakout and retest from below to above this range will restore the chances of a downward correction and provide a signal to open short positions with a decline toward 1.2516. The ultimate target remains the minimum of 1.2479, where I will take profit.   In the case of further growth in GBP/USD and a lack of activity at 1.2596, which seems likely, buyers will continue to dominate. In that case, I will postpone selling until the resistance at 1.2636 is tested. A false breakout there will be an entry point for short positions. I plan to sell GBP/USD on a rebound from the May high of around 1.2674, but only with the expectation of a downward correction of 25-30 pips within the day.     The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for June 6th showed a reduction in both short and long positions. The pound has risen significantly recently. This indicates that many market participants continue to bet on an increase in interest rates by the Bank of England. Recent forecasts and expectations that the UK economy will avoid a recession this year also contribute to the demand for risk assets. We have paused the cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve ahead, which will also support GBP/USD buyers.   The latest COT report states that short non-commercial positions decreased by 4,056 to 52,579, while long non-commercial positions fell by 5,257 to 65,063. This led to a slight decrease in the non-commercial net position to 12,454 from 13,235 the previous week. The weekly price rose to 1.2434 from 1.2398.     Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth in the pair. Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly chart (H1), which differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).   Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2479, will act as support. Description of Indicators: • Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. • Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12, Slow EMA period 26, SMA period 9. • Bollinger Bands: Period 20. • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements. • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. • The net non-commercial position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.      
Coinbase CEO Prepares for Showdown with SEC in Crypto Industry Battle

Coinbase CEO Prepares for Showdown with SEC in Crypto Industry Battle

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.06.2023 10:00
Crypto Industry News: Brian Armstrong, head of Coinbase, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are preparing for a showdown. This could affect the future of the cryptocurrency industry. Armstrong has strongly expressed his dissatisfaction with the SEC's approach, which appears to be clearly targeting the broader crypto industry. Armstrong mercilessly criticized the SEC via Twitter.     He alleged that instead of striving to understand companies in the cryptocurrency industry, more massive logs are still thrown at their feet. He argues that the SEC - as a state regulator - should instruct similar companies. Guide how to operate in accordance with the regulations, instead of fighting them in court. The CEO of Coinbase has made it clear that he is proud to represent the industry in court in the search for clarity of rules for the crypto space. This seems especially important in light of the fact that the regulator carefully looked at Coinbase's activities before agreeing to its listing on the stock exchange.     It seems that Armstrong and his team are determined to lead the fight for the future of the cryptocurrency industry. In response to the SEC chairman's call, Armstrong explained that there is no pathway in the current system that would allow it to function legally. He also pointed to conflicting statements issued by the SEC and the Futures Trading Commission on the differences between a security and a commodity.       Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a V-shape reversal from the lows seen at the level of $25,442 and is currently trading above 50 and 100 MA around the level of $27,000. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $27,452 and $27,570. The key short them technical resistance is the swing high located at the level of $28,446 and only a sustained breakout above this level would be considered more bullish. The intraday technical support is seen at $25,892. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC.   Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $28,056 WR2 - $27,490 WR1 - $27,126 Weekly Pivot - $26,917 WS1 - $26,553 WS2 - $26,343 WS3 - $25,770      Trading Outlook: The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.        
Tether Invests in Renewable Energy Project in El Salvador, Creating One of the Largest Cryptocurrency Mines - Crypto Industry News

Tether Invests in Renewable Energy Project in El Salvador, Creating One of the Largest Cryptocurrency Mines - Crypto Industry News

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.06.2023 09:57
Crypto Industry News: El Salvador recognized BTC as legal tender in 2021. According to the authorities, this has led to increased interest in the country in terms of tourism. Added to this is the renewable energy development program at Metapan, which aims to use solar and wind energy to power bitcoin miners. Now it turns out that Tether is one of the investors in the mentioned renewable energy project. As part of it, Volcano Energy, a 241 megawatt (MW) renewable energy center, was created in Metapan.   It is expected to generate 169 MW of solar energy and 72 MW of wind energy. The energy produced will power the BTC mines in El Salvador. Tether estimates that the park's computing power will exceed 1.3 exahash per second. This would mean that Volcano Energy would be one of the largest cryptocurrency mines in the world. Tether's chief technology officer, Paolo Ardoino, said the investment fits into a broader vision.   The company wants to invest in the production of renewable energy, as well as in mining infrastructure. Volcano Energy CEO Josue Lopez added that "over 52% of bitcoin is currently issued sustainably." It is not known exactly how much Tether invested.   The total cost will be USD 1 billion. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has bounced back above the level of $1,839 and is trading above the 50 and 100 MA. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,913 and then possibly at the last swing high located at $1,928. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,839 and $1,822. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,962 WR2 - $1,919 WR1 - $1,894 Weekly Pivot - $1,877 WS1 - $1,851 WS2 - $1,834 WS3 - $1,791   Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. This is the key level for bulls, so it needs to be broken in order to continue the up trend. The key technical support is seen at $1,368, so as long as the market trades above this level, the outlook remains bullish.  
Navigating GBP/USD: Analysis, Levels, and Indicators

Navigating GBP/USD: Analysis, Levels, and Indicators

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.06.2023 09:55
1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour time frame, the pair started an upward movement and just as quickly ended it. The market insists on buying the pound, which remains significantly overbought and unjustifiably high. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. For now, we will consider the strong correction that we've seen last week and expect a revival of the downward movement.   On June 7, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. The Senkou Span B line (1.2395) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2455) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Wednesday, there are no important events scheduled in either the UK or the US. Therefore, there will be no specific events to react to during the day, and volatility could be low again, and we can't expect trend-driven movements either.     Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.