Florian Grummes

Florian Grummes

Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 25 years of experience in financial markets.
Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets. www.midastouch-consulting.com

Gold – Monthly Closing Above USD 2,000 Triggers Breakout Rally

Gold – Monthly Closing Above USD 2,000 Triggers Breakout Rally

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 30.11.2023 16:00
ReviewClosing at USD 2,002.49, gold concluded the last week just slightly above USD 2,000. If, on the upcoming Thursday evening, November 30th, gold can close above USD 2,000, the long-awaited first monthly closing above this significant psychological threshold would have finally been achieved.Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 29th, 2023. Source: TradingviewA comparable situation was last observed approximately 14 years ago. Back then, gold had been attacking the USD 1,000 mark for many months. But it was not until the first monthly closing above USD 1,000 in late September 2009 triggered an explosive breakout rally. Over the ensuing three months, gold prices exploded higher, surging by around 25% to USD 1,225 without any notable pullbacks.A similar scenario is envisaged this time. Indeed, the probabilities strongly favor that gold prices will close the month of November or December above USD 2,000. Thereafter, an impressive breakout rally should be anticipated until spring 2024.Chart Analysis – Gold in US-DollarWeekly chart: Shortened Right ShoulderGold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 29th, 2023. Source: TradingviewOwing to the strong bounce in October and the persistent approach towards the USD 2,000 level since then, the inverse head-and-shoulders formation on gold’s weekly chart appears to be on the verge of completion. Surprisingly, the right shoulder is rather shallow, which means that buyers were rather impatient coming into the market. All that is still missing would be the breakthrough and above the neckline at USD 2,075. Currently, gold needs to rally another USD 35 or +1.71%.Given the clearly overbought weekly stochastic, legitimate doubts arise regarding this highly bullish perspective. Ideally, and despite the overbought conditions, gold prices would advance towards the neckline at USD 2,075 in the next one to three weeks. This would pave the way for a healthy “cooling-off” pullback from higher levels between approx. USD 2,075 to USD 2,125. For instance, a necessary recharging retracement could bring gold back down towards USD 2,000 to USD 2,025 for a final kiss & goodbye to this new support zone before the actual breakout rally might start in earnest. Contrary to our expectations, a clear failure at the neckline at USD 2,075 would necessitate a substantially larger right shoulder and extent the 3.5-year long consolidation.Overall, the weekly chart is bullish, despite overbought conditions. Actually, the chart indicates a rather immediate rise to at least USD 2,075 by the end of December. If a breakout above the neckline at USD 2,075 would be successful as well, a theoretical target of approximately USD 2,535 can be derived from the difference between the head of the inverse head-and-shoulders formation at USD 1,615 and the neckline at USD 2,075. This target could be achieved within a few months, considering the compressed energy that has been accumulated over the last 12 years.Daily chart: Close to Break OutGold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 29th, 2023. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the 200-day moving average (USD 1,944) withstood the bearish assault two and a half weeks ago. Gold prices utilized this support as a springboard and have overcome the resistance zone around USD 2,000.While the daily stochastic is significantly overbought, the oscillator is about to transform into an embedded super-bullish state. This would secure the uptrend, likely propelling prices towards USD 2,075 to USD 2,125 more or less directly. Alternatively, some form of a pullback might occur between the end of November and the next FED interest rate decision on December 13th. However, such a pullback should ideally hold above USD 2,000. The worst case would be another test of the rising 200-day moving average (USD 1,944).The lingering concern is the open price gap (“Hamas Gap”) at USD 1,830. Typically, 80% of those price gaps are eventually closed. Currently, the expectation is for a sharp breakout rally first, before potential market disturbances in the second half of 2024 could compel a liquidity crisis, which could force gold prices downward to fill that open gap.In summary, the daily chart is bullish but overbought. In the short term, the most critical factor is whether gold can maintain a monthly close above USD 2,000 by Thursday, November 30th. Success in this regard would indicate our most bullish scenario. Otherwise, a pullback should be anticipated.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Increasingly BearishCommitments of Traders (COT) for gold as of November 24th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderIn the Gold-Futures market, as of November 24th, and at a gold price of USD 1,965, commercial traders held a cumulative net short position of 177,019 future contracts. This indicates a clear deterioration due to the recent rally. However, there is still considerable room until an extreme scenario, in which commercial players have held up to 300,000 to 350,000 net short contracts in the past.Overall, the current Commitments of Traders (CoT) report is increasingly bearish, potentially hindering a breakout above USD 2,075.Sentiment for Gold – NeutralSentiment Optix for gold as of November 24th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderWith a value of 57, the Sentiment indicator continues to measure a rather neutral sentiment in the gold market. However, considering the temporary “bloodbath” phase and correction between September 20th and October 6th, a significant shift back towards pessimism is not expected anytime soon. On the contrary, the Sentiment indicator is currently well-positioned for our super-bullish breakout scenario.Overall, sentiment in the gold market is neutral, providing ample room until an excessively euphoric phase.Seasonality for Gold - Right In Front Of The Best Phase Of The YearSeasonality for gold over the last 12-years as of October 9th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderBased on the seasonal average of the last 12 years, the gold market has two weeks remaining until the onset of an extremely positive phase between mid-December and late February. The time for being “fully invested” is now!Over the past 12 years, the seasonal component from mid-December has been notably bullish, anticipating significant price increases.Macro update – Central Banks with Strong Gold DemandCentral bank gold demand since 2010. Source: IMF IFS, Respective central banks, World Gold CouncilWhile the AI boom, the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and a year-end rally have brought hope and relief to financial markets, central banks’ net gold purchases this year are approximately 14% higher than those in 2022. Central banks have collectively bought around 800 tons of gold so far, an unprecedented amount for this nine-month period.The spectrum of countries whose central banks have bolstered their reserves in recent quarters is broad. The 33 most important central banks, led by China (78 tons), Poland (57 tons), Turkey (39 tons), and India (9 tons), purchased a total of 197.85 tons of gold in the third quarter of 2023, averaging 66 tons per month.The reasons for the increased central bank demand are diverse and partly individual. Primarily, it is likely attributed to the general high uncertainty, geopolitics, and heightened volatility in bond markets, along with the exponentially rising US national debt and US interest payments.Economic Sanctions Accelerate De-dollarizationGeopolitics have clearly divided into two blocs (East and West) since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Hence, globalization is in retreat. Many nations, alarmed by economic sanctions against Russia, are striving to diversify their currency reserves and seek alternatives to the US dollar, whose backing by the Saudi oil trade (Petrodollar) is gradually weakening.High Volatility in Bond MarketsSimultaneously, volatility in bond markets remains significantly elevated compared to the last 20 years. For instance, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds fluctuated over 13%, decreasing from 5.02% to 4.37% in the last four weeks. These are substantial movements, which create lots of challenges for central banks and institutional investors in the fixed-income segment of their portfolios.However, the concerns about the sustainability of the US debt trajectory are likely the primary drivers of continued rising gold demand from central banks. The soaring debt ratios and escalating interest costs, expected to consume 20% of government tax revenues by 2024, signal imminent challenges for US dollar holders and those with US dollar-denominated debts.First Interest Rate Cut in May 2024?Currently, the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve Bank will no longer raise interest rates in December but will present the first interest rate cut in May. It is crucial to understand that the Fed follows with some delay the markets and not vice versa. If a recession and economic disruptions (“crash landing”) become more apparent, despite elevated inflation, the Fed might be compelled to implement substantial interest rate cuts due to market pressure. This is likely to weigh heavily on the US dollar and concurrently boost gold prices. Markets typically factor in such developments approximately six months in advance.The macroeconomic environment remains extremely favorable for the gold price.Conclusion: Gold – Monthly Closing Above USD 2,000 Triggers Breakout RallyGold is on the verge of its first monthly closing above USD 2,000. If achieved by the end of November, an initial surge to the all-time high around USD 2,075 is expected to follow. As each attempt to breach a resistance level weakens its resistance, the fourth or, at the latest, the fifth attempt at the all-time high should result in a successful breakthrough.The subsequent breakout rally is likely to be spectacular, like the one in 2009, considering the significant energy accumulated in the gold market over the past 12 years. As outlined, the chances are high that gold prices could increase by approximately 20 to 25% by spring 2024 in this very bullish scenario. To realize this scenario, any retracements from now on should find support, at the latest, at the quickly rising 200-day moving average (USD 1,944 USD). But ideally, gold will not fall back below USD 2,000 anymore in the coming few weeks.“Gold – Monthly Closing Above USD 2,000 Triggers Breakout Rally” – analysis initially published on November 26th, 2023, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on November 29th, 2023.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure:This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|November 29th, 2023|Tags: banking crisis, central bank, central bank gold demand, FED, FED balance, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold demand, gold fundamentals, gold seasonality, Gold sentiment, Liquidity, quantitative tightening, technical analysis, USD|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis and is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Gold – Tenacious Correction Not Definitely Finished

Gold – Tenacious Correction Not Definitely Finished

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.09.2023 15:16
ReviewAlthough gold bears have struggled to make significant progress to the downside since the low at USD 1,893 on June 29th, gold and silver prices have remained under pressure over the past two months. In fact, slowly but steadily, gold prices have been sliding southward since July 20th, reaching a new, slightly lower low at USD 1,885 on August 21st.Since there hasn’t been a clear trend reversal since that low yet, the correction that began with a top at USD 2,067 on May 4th probably hasn’t fully played out. However, it took the bears nearly two months to push prices about USD 9 below the June low!Obviously, this year the seasonal pattern has been disrupted by the strong US dollar. Hence, the summer rally we anticipated more or less fizzled out. Even though there were two recovery waves, overall, the most recent high in September at USD 1,953 was lower compared to the July high at USD 1,987 (July 20th). Nevertheless, gold bulls have managed to defend the support around USD 1,900 last week and are now trying again to break out above the downtrend line around USD 1,930 – 1,935.Chart Analysis – Gold in US-DollarWeekly chart: Still in Correction ModeGold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of September 19th, 2023. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, the price of gold has been correcting in a descending wedge for about four and a half months. The formation doesn’t appear to be complete yet and could potentially bring a final pullback into the range of USD 1,860 to USD 1,875 in the coming weeks. The lower Bollinger Band would currently offer room towards approximately USD 1,880.At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator has been showing a new buy signal since the end of August, but significant momentum on the upside has not yet materialized. No momentum basically means no trend which means sideways price action. However, if a sustainable move above approx. USD 1,935 would occur, the technical picture would certainly brighten. In that case, a relatively swift recovery towards the strong resistance zone around USD 1,980 could become possible. To initiate an attack on the all-time high at USD 2,075, the bulls would need to overcome that resistance zone in the next step.Overall, the weekly chart remains in correction mode and is slightly bearish. However, the current downside potential seems very limited and prices around USD 1,860 to 1,875 might already be the worst-case scenario. On the other hand, there is not much missing to generate new upward momentum. Only the continued strength of the US dollar and the somewhat sluggish financial market conditions are providing headwinds.Daily chart: Breakout above USD 1,930 or Continuation of Correction Below USD 1,900?Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of September 19th, 2023. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, gold is hovering around its rising 200-day moving average (USD 1,921) while correcting within a relatively clear and symmetrical triangle/wedge formation. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached its oversold zone and is providing a new buy signal since last Friday. At the same time, the two Bollinger Bands (USD 1,946 and 1,903) are narrowing, hence tightening the trading range while lowering volatility.From this perspective, it would be challenging for the bears to push prices significantly below USD 1,900. Over the last four and a half months, they have only achieved this with modest and short-lived success. The bulls, on the other hand, have not been convincing either, but they have the overarching uptrend on their side, which would only be seriously questioned with prices well below USD 1,800.In summary, the daily chart has turned bullish in the short-term and favors a continuation of the recovery that started last Thursday. The first target at USD 1,930 has already been achieved, the next one is waiting around USD 1,945. This level is likely to determine the direction for the next few weeks and maybe even until the end of the year. If a breakout occurs, gold could gradually initiate an attack on its all-time high. However, if gold bulls fail again and confirm the series of lower highs, we can expect prices in the range of USD 1,875 to 1,860 within the descending wedge by mid-December.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Slightly bearishCommitments of Traders (COT) for gold as of September 5th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderAccording to the latest CoT report based on data from September 5th, commercial traders held a cumulative short position of 158,239 contracts in gold futures. In a long-term comparison, this short position is too high and currently does not reflect a contrarian opportunity.The current CoT report is slightly bearish and suggests patience.Sentiment for Gold – NeutralSentiment Optix for gold as of September 13th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderWith a value of 48, the sentiment indicator currently reports a balanced and neutral sentiment in the gold market. The price decline in August temporarily lowered the value to 41. Extreme fear and panic levels were last observed over a year ago. Since then, gold has recovered by over USD 450 at its peak. Ideally, in the coming one to two years, the pendulum should swing to the other extreme (euphoria and greed). Obviously, the recovery in the last 12 months has not sparked enthusiasm yet, as sentiment remains in the neutral range.Overall, sentiment in the gold market remains neutral.Seasonality for Gold – Over the last 12 years until December very challengingSeasonality for gold over the last 12-years as of September 13th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderBased on statistics from the last 54 years, the best phase of the year for gold usually began in early July and most often led to significant price increases into late September or early October. This year, gold did experience a temporary low at the end of June and subsequently recovered by USD 95. However, the bears regained control on July 20th and have not let go since.Looking at gold’s price performance of the last 12 years since its all-time high on September 6th, 2011, the seasonal picture changes dramatically. According to this timeframe, gold typically came under significant pressure starting from late August and only found its final low around the last FOMC interest rate decision in mid-December. From this viewpoint, the gold market may face three very challenging months ahead.In summary, based on the last 12 years, the seasonal pattern is bearish until mid-December and suggests caution.Macro update – Strong US Dollar Indicates New TurmoilECB key interest rates, as of September 14th, 2023. Source: Holger ZschäpitzAs of July 27th, 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in over six years. Since then, it has raised interest rates a total of ten times, setting the key interest rate currently at 4.5%, in its battle against inflation and despite growing economic concerns. This is the highest level since the launch of the European Monetary Union in 1999!In the United States, the Federal Reserve (FED) had already initiated its rate hiking cycle in March 2022, setting the pace for most other Western central banks. One day before its next interest rate decision on September 20th, the US policy rate stands at 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Given the persistent inflation numbers, a relatively strong US labor market data, and a robust US economy, the end of rate hikes is not yet certain. At the same time, the FED is withdrawing liquidity from the markets through its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program. Recently, the FED’s balance sheet has shrunk by an additional USD 2.5 billion to USD 8,098.8 billion, or 30.2% of US GDP.Excess liquidity still wobbling through the system.Overall, the situation is complex, unique, and unseen. Thus, it’s difficult to figure out what will happen next. Over the past 15 years, and particularly in 2020 and 2021, markets have been flooded with liquidity from central banks to an unprecedented extent. Despite the fastest interest rate hikes in history, this excess liquidity continues to circulate within the financial system. Together with the hastily assembled “Bank Term Funding Program” (BTFP) in March and very expansive fiscal policies to stimulate the economy (amounting to approximately USD 5 trillion in the US alone), this liquidity is likely the main reason for the relatively stable condition of the US economy.US-Dollar above average for a month after a long time below, as of September 8th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderNevertheless, warning signs of a hard landing and possibly a global recession are slowly but surely increasing. While stock markets typically experience a healthy pullback during the traditionally weak summer period and especially in September, the US dollar remains very strong, possibly indicating a global economic slowdown, increasing contraction, or even a credit squeeze.Excess savings in U.S., as of September 9th, 2023. Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisIn particular, it appears that US consumers have exhausted their savings and excess reserves, as US credit card debt reached a new record in the second quarter. Delinquency and default rates on mortgages and loans are also on the rise. Troubled auto loans and the upcoming resumption of student loan payments in October are also becoming prominent concerns. We have extensively discussed the dire situation in the commercial real estate market in recent months already.Emergency loans have spurred the recovery in the stock market since MarchEmergency loans from the Fed’s BTFP facility, as of September 9th, 2023. Source: Holger ZschäpitzLast week, emergency loans from the FED’s BTFP facility reached a new high of USD 108 billion, as long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, allowing banks to urgently obtain much-needed liquidity through this avenue.US Treasury Gold Holdings vs. Federal Reserve Monetary Base, as of August 31st, 2023. Source: Goehring & RozencwajgIn the medium term, the question primarily revolves around when the pivot in interest rates and monetary policies will become necessary due to increasing disturbances in financial markets. Many believe that “this time is different”, but we suspect that it would need to occur no later than the second quarter of 2024. Since financial markets typically look ahead six to eight months, gold should begin to factor in a 180-degree shift in US monetary policy from around mid-December onwards. Already at the current level of the monetary base of the FED, gold is “radically” undervalued. If new liquidity needs to be created out of thin air once again, the undervaluation will get even more extreme.Conclusion: Gold – Tenacious Correction Not Definitely Finished.For nearly four months, gold has been fluctuating between roughly speaking USD 1,900 and 1,980. Hence, the correction that began in May is still without a clear resolution. While the seasonal trend of the past 12 years suggests caution and patience until mid-December, the daily chart currently shows that a bullish move above USD 1,930 is only about USD 10 away. If this occurs, the resistance zone around USD 1,980 is likely to quickly capture the attention of market participants.On the downside, breaking below the support at USD 1,900 could trigger a sell-off towards the range between USD 1,860 and USD 1,875. The ongoing strength of the US dollar and the restrictive US monetary policy particularly support this scenario.Given the absence of a clear trend, patience and caution are once again recommended.“Gold – Tenacious Correction Not Definitely Finished” – analysis initially published on September 15th, 2023, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on September 19th, 2023.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure:This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|September 19th, 2023|Tags: banking crisis, ECB, FED, FED balance, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold seasonality, Gold sentiment, Liquidity, quantitative tightening, technical analysis, USD|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis and is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Gold – Topping process followed by a pullback

Gold – Topping process followed by a pullback

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 01.05.2023 10:22
ReviewLast autumn, a new chapter was opened in the gold market with a triple bottom around 1,615 USD. Since then, the price of gold has risen significantly, peaking at 2,048 USD. A more than solid increase of 26.73% within six months.During this impressive upward movement, gold reached a temporary high in early February at 1,959 USD, followed by a pullback to 1,804 USD in early March, which we clearly identified as another buying opportunity in the gold market. As the US banking crisis escalated in March, gold quickly and dramatically recovered. Finally, on April 13th, gold reached its highest level since March 9th, 2022, at 2,048 USD.After the strong price increases, the gold market became clearly overbought, resulting in a pullback over the last two weeks down to 1,969 USD. Since then, gold has been consolidating sideways between 1,970 and 2,010 USD. However, the bullish character has not been lost so far. Therefore, a clear trend reversal has not yet been observed.Silver gains nearly 50% in eight monthsSilver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2023. Source: Tradingview.Silver’s performance is even more impressive. Silver prices bottomed out at 17.56 USD on September 1st, 2022, around two months before gold prices started to rise. With the recent high at 26.07 USD, the silver price has increased by 48.51% in the past eight months. Despite a recent pullback down to 24.47 USD and an ongoing consolidation, a clear end to the uptrend is not yet visible. The next Fibonacci extension is waiting at 26.84 USD.Chart Analysis – Gold in US-DollarWeekly chart: Overbought and with negative divergences.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2023. Source: Tradingview.Following gold’s sharp rally from early November until the end of January, the pullback in February provided a healthy cooling-off period and gave new impetus to the gold market. Accordingly, strong bullish momentum was seen through all of March and until mid of April.However, over the last two weeks, momentum has been waning as prices approached the psychological level of 2,000 USD. Price gains on the upside got more and more sluggish, while volatility has increased. Overall, there has been a lot of back-and-forth, with neither bulls nor bears able to gain the upper hand.Of course, the rally of the past six months with gains of around 430 USD has taken a lot of strength. In addition, market participants need to get used to the new price level at or above 2,000 USD. Furthermore, the well-known resistance zone between 2,030 and 2,075 USD not only attracts short-sellers but also makes profit-taking appear sensible. The increase in hedging activities among the major gold producers as well as the spreading of private placements by those highly speculative Canadian exploration companies add further headwinds and do cannibalize the gold price.Weekly stochastic on the verge of issuing a sell signalFrom a technical perspective, the indicators on the weekly chart are clearly overbought, and the negative divergences are increasing significantly. In fact, the weekly stochastic is on the verge of issuing a sell signal and has not confirmed the recent new high. With this configuration, a direct breakthrough to new all-time highs above 2,075 USD appears highly unlikely. Nevertheless, a kind of “topping process” with one or two further attempts to breach the 2,050 USD mark in the coming weeks is still possible.Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish, but the warning signals are increasing significantly. This is certainly not the time to open new medium- to long-term long positions in the gold market. Although the upper Bollinger Band still provides room up to around 2,047 USD, the stochastic is already turning downward, indicating a larger corrective move is slowly but surely coming. Currently, a pullback would likely lead to the strong support zone between 1,900 and 1,930 USD.Daily chart: Consolidation at a high levelGold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 29th, 2023. Source: Tradingview.On the daily chart, gold managed to reduce its overbought status through a consolidation at a high level. Actually, the stochastic oscillator is currently approaching the oversold zone without that any dramatic price declines would have been necessary.Although the directionless choppy sideways trading may have been nerve-wracking for some, a breakthrough to the downside was clearly prevented. Instead, buyers repeatedly entered the gold market and eye contract with the psychological level of 2,000 USD was maintained. Additionally, the lower Bollinger Band (1,968 USD) almost approached the current price action, which will provide more support for the price around 1,970 to 1,980 USD in the coming week.In total, the chances for another attempt to attack the price region around 2,050 USD in the coming days and weeks are relatively good. Nevertheless, the increasingly parallel moving Bollinger Bands are expected to keep the price action primarily between 1,970 and 2,030 USD for at least another two to three more weeks. Although brief breakout attempts are always possible, they are likely to prove false initially.Commitments of Traders for GoldCommitments of Traders (COT) for gold as of April 28th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderAccording to the latest CoT report, commercial traders held a cumulative short position of 211,928 futures contracts as of last Tuesday. In a long-term comparison, though, this short position is relatively high and therefore unfavorable for further bullish price development.The current CoT report is bearish.Sentiment for GoldSentiment Optix for gold as of April 28th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderIn the big picture, the gold market is still far from euphoria and excessive greed. However, optimism among market participants has significantly increased thanks to the strong recovery in recent months. As well, it is noticeable that gold prices recently tested the old highs around 2,050 USD again, while the sentiment was far from as euphoric as it was during the last two peaks in this price region. This is a good sign for the gold price in the medium term as a sustainable break out to new highs needs enough doubting and uninvested players at the side-lines.Overall, sentiment remains neutral.Seasonality for Gold – Topping process followed by a pullback.Seasonality for gold over the last 54-years as of April 28th, 2023. Source: SentimentraderSince the end of February, gold statistically is in an unfavorable seasonal period. While the first two to three weeks of May usually brought moderate price increases, on average over the last 54 years, sharp pullbacks occurred from the end of May and especially in June.Therefore, our primary scenario initially sees a few more weeks of rising gold prices and possibly one or two further attacks on the 2,050 USD mark. Subsequently, however, early summer should bring a more significant pullback.Overall, seasonality is still slightly positive in the short-term, but the situation remains unfavorable until midsummer. In fact, we expect a significant pullback by then, which should also provide the starting point for gold´s best phase of the year, which usually is the third quarter.Macro update – Banking crisis, dollar crisis, geopolitical crisis, crackup boomWhen the FED hikes, it usually breaks something, as of April 16th. Source: BloombergOver the past 15 months, we have repeatedly stated that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes would eventually break or damage something. It is now clear that this unprecedented hiking cycle has pushed the US-dominated and highly leveraged financial system to the brink of collapse.This weekend, First Republic Bank will be the next American regional bank to go under. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is currently exploring whether a takeover by JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services, or other banks is possible, which would theoretically allow for the bank’s restructuring following a government seizure.However, if the San Francisco-based First Republic Bank is placed under receivership, it would be the fourth US bank to collapse within a month after Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, and New York’s Signature Bank. The bank’s stock plummeted more than 54% in New York last Friday, following rumors of a government seizure. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has lost over 97% of its value.The dramatic withdrawal of customer deposits remains the root cause. Instead of leaving their money in a low-interest bank account, investors understandably prefer to buy government bonds and money market funds that offer up to 5% interest. To pay out or transfer these customer deposits, banks must rapidly obtain liquidity, which is often parked in bonds whose current value, due to rising interest rates, is sometimes well below their purchase or nominal value. Reports on social media about difficulties at the banks accelerate the withdrawal of customer deposits and fuel a vicious cycle.The Fed printed 400 billion new dollars from March 8th to March 22nd!While the Fed has been trying to correct its past mistakes through interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions over the past 15 months, it has directly fueled the next crisis with these policies. This new crisis has already forced it to create (print) massive amounts of fiat currency out of thin air and make it available to struggling banks.Only at first glance these interest rate hikes, balance sheet reductions, and bank failures should have a strongly deflationary effect. But instead, stock indices and cryptocurrencies have all risen significantly in recent weeks and show no signs of starting the expected crash. We assume that this is typical of a crack-up boom, in which the growing loss of confidence is fought with increasingly large support measures, causing the fiat currency to plummet while nominal asset values rise.USA Sovereign Risk in form of the 1-year EUR CDS as of April 24th, 2023. Source: ZerohedgeFurthermore, the toxic mix of the Ukraine conflict, energy crisis, increasingly overt warmongering between the US and China, exorbitant US national debt, the US debt ceiling and the resulting dollar crisis, plus growing recession risks, high global inflation rates, as well as the ongoing banking crisis and the recent bank run in the US, all accelerate the rapidly growing loss of trust. This can be seen particularly in the weakening US dollar and the exploding credit default swaps (CDS). Although these CDS are mainly purchased by banks to hedge potential default risks for regulatory reasons, this small market sector reflects quite well what is really going on in the financial system.King Dollar – The end of his reign means Gold’s renaissance.King Dollar – The end of his reign means Gold’s renaissance.In these uncertain times, not only private investors but also institutional investors and especially central banks are turning to precious metals. While the tasks of a central bank may differ depending on the country or currency area, the central task of a central bank is generally to ensure price level stability in the associated currency area and to control the circulating money or to control the money supply in an economy.To fulfill this task, numerous central banks already bought a record amount of 1,136 tons of gold worth around 70 billion USD last year. Due to the rapidly diminishing US influence on Saudi Arabia and its new alliance with China and Iran, more and more central banks are likely to be forced to diversify their portfolios away from the US dollar in the near future. This process could accelerate in the coming years and easily drive up the gold price to 3,000 USD and higher.There is no doubt that we are living in historic times. Only with a clear commitment to free and open (financial) markets, including necessary competition, and a free market money backed by tangible assets like gold and Bitcoin, as well as a free and open society in which every free expression of opinion is an essential human right, does the Western alliance centered around America still have a chance against the totalitarian alliance of China and Russia. Instead of relying on freedom and market economy, the US is trying to maintain its global hegemony through aggressive military power projection. The accumulation of aircraft carriers and military machinery in and around Taiwan speaks volumes!Conclusion: Gold – Topping process followed by a pullbackAfter a rise of over 430 USD over the last six months, the air for the gold price appears to be thinning in the short term. It is likely that the bulls will make another attempt to break through the resistance level of 2,050 USD, and perhaps there is even enough strength for a brief run towards the all-time high at 2,075 USD. However, given the overbought situation on the weekly chart and the unfavorable seasonal component, a significant pullback towards 1,900 to 1,930 USD would be expected afterwards. Additionally, the open price gap in the gold futures (June future at 1,889 USD) may also be closed during this time.Analysis initially published on April 29th, 2023, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on April 30th, 2023.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure:This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|April 30th, 2023|Tags: banking crisis, Crack-Up-Boom, EUR/USD, FED, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold consolidation, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold seasonality, Gold sentiment, quantitative tightening, technical analysis, USD|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis and is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Is Gold Ready to Shine Again? US CPI and Fed Policy Insights

Gold – Fight around the 200-day moving average not yet decided

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 28.12.2022 15:18
Review Starting from the triple bottom around 1,615 USD, gold managed a strong recovery over the last eight weeks. So far, this “bounce” culminated in a 5-month high around 1,833 USD on December 27th. Initially, this rally looked like a sharp and “short squeeze-like rally”. Since a first interim high around 1,786 USD on November 15th, however, the continued rise has been increasingly sluggish and erratic. Ultimately, gold bulls and gold bears have been fighting since December 1st in a wild back-and-forth around the still falling 200-day moving average line (1,782 USD). This resulted in a sideways trading range, primarily between 1,770 USD and 1,820 USD for December. As prices are currently trading around 1,805 USD, a clear decision has not yet been made. However, the renewed rally to almost 1,833 yesterday (Tuesday) seems as if the bulls are not yet willing to make room for a healthy pullback. Yet, the sharp reversal thereafter is a warning sign. Since September 1st, Silver recovered by 38%! Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 28th, 2022. Source: Tradingview In contrast, silver presented itself extremely strong in the same period. Overall, silver managed to recover by over 38% since its low at 17.56 USD on September 1st. With a current double top around 24.30 USD, silver bulls have recaptured the 200-day moving average line (USD 21.12) since four weeks already. However, the warning signals on the daily chart are now increasing and a pullback to the falling 200-day moving average line must be anticipated soon. The entire recovery in the precious metals sector is carried by the correction in the US-Dollar. The US-Dollar had almost non-stop been rising from the beginning of the year until the end of September. The euro, for example, lost from over 16% down from 1.136 USD to 0.953 USD against the greenback. However, in the last three months, the strongly overbought situation caused a big recovery rally in the euro and a significant correction in the US-Dollar. Shortly before the turn of the year, the question remains whether the rallies in precious metals and in the stock-markets merely represent a countermovement or whether an important and long-term turning point may have been reached in all market sectors during this fall. Chart Analysis Gold in US Dollars Weekly chart: Prices running into a bearish wedge Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 28th, 2022. Source: Tradingview After the ongoing eight-week recovery rally in the gold market, the set-up on the weekly chart has improved, of course. Nevertheless, the correction that has been underway since August 2020 cannot yet be declared over. For this, a new all-time high with prices above 2,075 USD would be needed as the ultimate confirmation. Until then, about 275 USD or around 15% are currently missing. In any case, the triple bottom since early November provided a significant recovery. However, this rally has increasingly stalled since the beginning of December and is losing its momentum. Hence, we still need to assume that this rally could merely be a counter-trend movement. If, on the other hand, the triple bottom was indeed the end of the correction that has lasted for more than two years, then gold should already be on its way towards the 2,000 USD mark. The next pullback will bring more clarity In search for more clarity, the next pullback in the gold market should provide important information. If gold can hold around 1,730 to 1,750 USD or at the latest around 1,680 USD, the end of the two-year correction remains the preferred scenario. If, on the other hand, gold prices would fall below 1,680 USD again, the correction will drag on and could even deliver new lows around and below 1,600 USD in the medium term. Looking forward towards the next few weeks, the overbought stochastic and the emerging bearish wedge are warning signals and advise caution. In principle, a pullback would be healthy and even desirable. Only in this way gold could recharge and regain strength for further increases. In the most optimistic case, gold could then rather quickly knock on the resistance around 2,000 USD by the spring. More realistic, however, would be a deep pullback, which should happen soon and would clearly postpone a rally towards 2,000 USD. Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish, but the warning signals are increasing. The rather overheating situation would only ease with a pullback towards around 1,750 USD. Daily chart: Fight around the 200-day moving average not yet decided Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 28th, 2022. Source: Tradingview On its daily chart, gold has been oscillating around its falling 200-day moving average (1,782 USD) since the beginning of December. Although the bulls were mostly able to hold prices above this much observed and classic average, a decision has not yet been made. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator is whipsawing below its overbought zone, indicating that there is no clarity in momentum. Furthermore, the upper Bollinger Band (1,824 USD) offers only little room on the upside. All in all, the risk/reward-ratio is rather unfavorable for the bulls now. Based on the increasing tenacity of the recovery rally (low at 1,616 USD and high 1,833 USD), a healthy correction should be expected soon. A potential target would be the 38.2% retracement at 1,747 USD at least. But only below 1,680 USD would the bears be back in charge. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Neutral Commitments of Traders (COT) for Gold as of December 20th, 2022. Source: Sentimentrader According to the recent CoT report, the net short position of commercial market participants on December 13th was 138,529 cumulated short contracts. Thus, the situation in the futures market has deteriorated slightly. Only below 100,000 short contracts, one can speak of a sustainable bullish CoT report. In summary, the CoT report is neutral. Sentiment for Gold – Neutral Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 20th, 2022. Source: Sentimentrader Due to the strong recovery over the last two months, the mood in the gold market has improved significantly. In a long-term comparison though, sentiment is still at rather pessimistic levels. Yet, a contrarian opportunity is currently no longer present. Nevertheless, it is important to recall that gold was able to rise by more than 900 USD, or about 80%, within two years from a similarly bombed-out sentiment back in August 2018. Overall, sentiment is neutral. Seasonality for Gold – Bullish until the end of February Seasonality for Gold over the last 54-years as of December 20th, 2022. Source: Sentimentrader From the seasonal perspective, an extremely promising phase for the gold price began in mid-December. In the past, this period usually delivered significant increases into late February. Seasonality for the gold and silver is therefore clearly bullish until the end of February. Macro update – An extremely difficult year draws to a close Year-to-date relative performance as of December 22nd, 2022. Source: finviz An extremely difficult and challenging year 2022 is ending. The Russia-Ukraine war, high energy prices and extreme inflation rates, the aftermath of the Corona crisis and the turmoil in China caused a lot of stress in financial markets. The end of the forty-year low interest rate environment was felt above all in the bond markets, which saw a brutal sell-off. Interest rates for 10-year US government bonds shot up from 1.5% to 4.33% and are currently 3.82%, more than doubling since the beginning of the year. Stock market returns were also disastrous in some cases. Meta (Facebook) lost -64% since January 1st, Amazon -48% and Apple -24%. Bitcoin is trading -58% lower. The real economy, on the other hand, is slowly but surely feeling the effects of these poor developments with a significant delay. There is still a lot to catch up with in the coming year (e.g. “mass layoffs”). The recession is already here, but the mainstream’s embellished figures are still masking the truth. There is currently no sign of a sustained change in the restrictive monetary policy! Neither in the USA nor in the eurozone. Rather, interest rates are now also rising in Japan, which means that the overall liquidity available in the global financial system will continue to decline. Precious metals held up rather well Nevertheless, precious metal prices have been able to hold up quite well within this difficult environment. Although the course of the year brought a high at 2,070 USD and a low at 1,615 USD, ultimately gold prices are currently trading close to the start of the year (1,828 USD). Silver and platinum are even ahead, with a small plus. On the other hand, copper, which is sensitive to the economy, recorded a loss of 14.75% for the year. Overall, the low valuations in many sectors are certainly an opportunity in the medium to long term. Nevertheless, we continue to see major risks for the time being in the coming months. An immediate return to the booming years is utopian. Instead, hot air continues to escape from the biggest bubble of all time. How long the U.S. Federal Reserve will be able to continue its aggressive monetary policy is anyone’s guess. We still suspect that there will be a sharp reversal in U.S. monetary policy in the course of next year (2023), as they will then be forced to limit the damage to the collapsing economy. However, the strong recovery since mid-October has probably pushed back the pivot in monetary policy slightly. Thus, our “risk-off” stance remains in principle. Conclusion: Gold – Fight around the 200-day moving average not yet decided To sum up, the recent recovery in all markets has brought the year to a halfway conciliatory close. Yet, the underlying problems have not been solved. Given the usually thin trading volume during the holidays, not much is likely to happen between now and the first few days of the new year 2023. However, the trendsetting first two weeks of the new year should be exciting and important again. We suspect that the air is getting thinner in the gold market and that a pullback is pending in the short-term. Only a solid daily closing price above 1,830 USD would likely unlock further upside potential towards 1,850 USD and maybe 1,900 USD. Given the positive seasonality and the rather doubting sentiment (“wall of worry”), gold could certainly continue its grind higher into January and February. However, it seems important that a medium-term directional decision will only be possible via lower prices and a revisit of the area around 1,750 USD. Regardless of the short- to medium-term outlook, though, we are optimistic not only for the second half of the coming year but for the next two to three years. Once the typical 8-year low in the gold market is clearly established, a strong uptrend with new all-time highs should follow. Analysis initially published on December 22nd, 2022, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on December 28th, 2022. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|December 28th, 2022|Tags: ECB, FED, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold seasonality, Gold sentiment, quantitative tightening, Silver, technical analysis|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Gold Has Extreme Bullish Condition

Gold – In search of a bottom

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 23.10.2022 16:30
Review In Euro, however, the picture looks much better. The weak Euro ensured that the price of gold in Euros can still show a small plus of 3.75% year-to-date. In a desolate 2022 for European equity and bond investors, gold brought at least some stabilization into a diversified portfolio.  Gold in US-Dollar, 4-hour chart as of October 22nd, 2022. Source:  Tradingview With the emergency intervention by the British central bank to support the imploding bond market, gold violently turned around on September 28th, and was able to recover significantly to 1,729 USD within just five trading days. However, this recovery didn't last long, as bears have pushed gold prices lower again over the past three weeks. Trading very close to the September low, a renewed recovery attempt could start any time. Given the heavily oversold situation and the beaten down sentiment, the chances of a larger recovery are not that bad.  Nevertheless, nothing has changed in the bigger picture as all sectors remain in a severe bear market. The continued strength of the US-Dollar, combined with rising US interest rates, is putting all asset classes under enormous pressure and further withdraws liquidity from the markets. It's a vicious circle that is likely to continue until credit markets freeze, at which point the Federal Reserve will be forced to make a radical change in their money policy. Chart Analysis Gold in US Dollars weekly chart: The support at 1,680 USD has been clearly broken Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 22nd, 2022. Source:  Tradingview As feared, the support at 1,680 USD no longer withstood the pressure from the bears on their fifth attempt. Although the breakthrough was not very quick, the situation is clear. Gold prices are trading at their lowest levels since March 2020 and bullish signals are in nowhere in sight. At least, the stochastic oscillator on the weekly chart is heavily oversold. But apart from the already broken lower edge of the long-term uptrend, there are no significant supports down to the area around 1,530 to USD 1,570. The absolute "worst case" scenario remains a pullback towards around 1,350 USD. On the way up, the bulls must first clear the former support around 1,680 USD to provide an initial signal of a trend reversal. So far, this has not been successful and the resistance zone around 1,680 USD is now being additionally strengthened with two crossing trend lines.   Overall, the weekly chart is bearish. From a trend follower perspective, lower prices below the round number of 1,600 USD would therefore be the next logical step. At the same time, however, the technical situation is extremely oversold and a bet on lower prices no longer has a good risk/reward-ratio. Daily chart: Clearly oversold again Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 22nd, 2022. Source:  Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been relentlessly sliding downwards since the high in March at 2,070 USD. Any countertrend-movement quickly fizzled out and gold faces a total loss of around 22%. At the same time, gold is trading around 180 USD below its falling 200-day line (1,815 USD). Hence, a short squeeze is possible at any time. However, this would also require a pullback in the heavily overbought US-Dollar. In view of the extremely one-sided "long dollar" positioning of most market participants, this is certainly only a matter of time. In any case, if gold can defend the September low at 1,615 USD, chances for a larger recovery would increase significantly. So far, however, this is wishful thinking but a decision will be made in the next few days. All in all, the daily chart is bearish, but oversold and therefore actually ripe for a renewed recovery. Nevertheless, gold would have to break out clearly above 1,680 USD and ideally also clear the last high at 1,730 USD to send a first bullish signal. More likely would be a tenacious and tricky bottom building process above 1,600 USD or even new lows somewhere between 1,530 and 1,570 USD. Be prepared that this bear spook could possibly even drag on until mid-December! Commitments of Traders for Gold – In search of a bottom Commitments of Traders (COT) for Gold as of October 19th, 2022. Source: Sentimenttrader At the end of September, the cumulated net short position of the commercial participants (62,138 contracts) had fallen to its lowest level since April 2019. The result was a sharp bounce of around 115 USD. According to the latest COT report, this short position amounts to 103,728 short-sold contracts and is therefore just above the threshold of 100,000 short contracts, at which one can speak of a sustainably bullish COT report. As gold is trading again around its September lows, the situation surely has improved further from contrarian point of view. In summary, the COT report can be classified as increasingly bullish. Sentiment for Gold Sentiment Optix for Gold as of October 19, 2022. Source:  Sentimenttrader After seven months of almost non-stop falling prices, the sentiment in gold market has once again entered “excessively bearish” territory. However, when the vast majority of market participants is extremely pessimistic, the opposite often tends to happen. Although a bottoming process might drag on for months, the remaining downside risk seems rather limited given the current sentiment. In the medium and above all in the long term, this bombed out sentiment is currently laying the foundation for the next fulminant rise in the price of gold. Overall, the sentiment traffic light is green and provides a strong contrarian buy signal! Seasonality for Gold – In search of a bottom Seasonality for Gold over the last 54-years as of October 19th, 2022. Source: Sentimenttrader From a seasonal perspective, the gold market still faces two difficult months ahead. Only with the US interest rate decision on December 14th will the worst of the season be over. Until then, the gold price should, statistically speaking, trade sideways to lower. In summary, seasonality for the gold and silver is clearly bearish until mid-December. Macro update – Miserable stock market year causes exaggerated pessimism Historically, September and October are the two worst months of the year for financial markets. The current year has so far confirmed these statistics quite well. Since September 1st, stock markets (Nasdaq -10.9%, DAX -1.2%), gold (-4.27%) and Bitcoin (-4.28%) show a negative result. Overall, the important asset classes have continued their sell-off and stock indices in particular fell to new lows. Consumer prices vs. producer prices in Germany as of September 30th, 2022. © Holger Zschaepitz The high inflation numbers have not given the markets any breather and are forcing central bankers in the major economies to raise interest rates further. While the US central bankers are trying to get inflation under control with "quantitative tightening" and interest rate hikes on an unprecedented scale, consumer prices in Germany are still rising. Most recently, German producer prices rose by 45.8% in September, the highest year-over-year rate since 1949. ECB balance sheet as of October 14th, 2022. © Holger Zschaepitz Hence, the fight against inflation is not showing any success (yet), especially in the euro zone. On the contrary, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to pour fuel into the fire while the balance sheet total has recently increased by 6.1 billion EUR to 8,778.1 billion EUR as a result of "quantitative easing". Since the record high in June, the ECB's total assets have decreased by only 57 billion EUR and currently still represent around 81% of eurozone´s GDP. Hence, the EUR remains under heavy pressure against the US dollar and continues to fuel inflation due to rising import prices. No one knows how long this monetary experiment in the eurozone and Japan as well as the restrictive monetary policy in the USA can continue. An end to the geopolitical tensions between the USA/NATO/Eurozone on the one hand and Russia/China on the other is also not in sight. As a result, there is neither an end to the energy crisis in Europe in sight. Biggest Bubble Ever, October 8, 2022. ©Reventure Consulting Therefore, nothing has changed in the negative big picture assessment for international financial markets. The hot air is slowly and painfully escaping from the biggest bubble of all time. In this process, the strong U.S. dollar combined with rising U.S. interest rates is ensuring that liquidity in the global financial system continues to dwindle, causing additional stress and further margin calls. Unfortunately, this vicious circle will continue until the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced to radically change direction due to imploding credit markets and a dramatic increase in U.S. unemployment rates by then. We suspect that there will be jolting interest rate cuts and massive liquidity measurements before the end of the first half of 2023. Put/Call-Ratio as of October 17th, 2022. ©Sentimentrader   At the same time, however, options traders have now amassed over 20 billion USD worth of put options to hedge against an equity market crash. Never in the history of U.S. financial markets has the put/call-ratio been at 3:1. Fear and panic are therefore extremely high and market participants are probably too bearishly positioned at present. Hence, a temporary yet sharp recovery (bear market rally) is quite possible by the end of the year. Conclusion: Gold - In search of a bottom Even if many gold investors are currently dissatisfied with the weak gold price development in USD, there is no way around gold in these crazy times given the turbulence in financial markets, historically high inflation rates, numerous hot spots, and an unbelievable number of (geo)political risks as well as the impending equalization of burdens / load balancing. Logically, the physical demand for precious metals remains very robust and has led to sometimes enormously high premiums, especially for silver. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 20th, 2022. Source:  Tradingview In the bigger picture, gold is on its way to its typical 8-year low, due sometime between December 2022 and December 2023. With any luck, the U.S. interest rate decision on December 14th could already bring the reversal of the downtrend and the beginning of the next big upward wave in the gold market. But even if the final low does not materialize until later next year, the long-term outlook for gold remains very promising. We suspect that in the next bull market wave, price increases of between 100% and 600% are very possible. However, all this is still pie in the sky, because in the short term, all markets remain under enormous selling pressure. Gold is currently looking for a bottom just above 1,600 USD. Should the zone between 1,600 and 1,625 USD be able to fend off the ongoing bearish attacks, a double low should initiate a larger recovery towards 1,680 USD and possibly even 1,800 USD. Both sentiment and COT data, as well as the oversold market conditions, argue in favor of this. Alternatively, there will be a slide below 1,600 until mid-December, although gold prices are then unlikely to fall significantly below 1,550 USD. In the long term, a remaining downside risk of maybe USD 100 is currently standing against a potential reward of at least 1,000 USD and more. Analysis initially published on October 20th, 2022, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on October 22nd, 2022. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|October 22nd, 2022|Tags: ECB balance, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold seasonality, Gold sentiment, quantitative tightening, Silver|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Gold – Close to the edge

Gold – Close to the edge

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 01.09.2022 11:12
In our last in-depth gold analysis we had been optimistically forecasting a recovery and summer rally for the gold price. And indeed, from its low at 1,680 USD gold rallied to 1,808 USD within less than three weeks. However, since mid of August gold came down hard again and is now training just slightly above 1,700 USD. Gold – Close to the edge.ReviewAlthough gold prices have held up much better against the US-Dollar (-6.74%) and especially against the Euro (+5.83%) than almost all other asset classes so far this year, investors’ nerves have also been strained here. While official inflation rates shot up to record highs, the gold market has instead seen first euphoria, then sheer panic and finally a disappointing summer rally over the past eight months.The first three months, however, brought an attack on the all-time high with a top at 2,070 USD. From mid-March, though, gold bears gradually took control again and pushed prices down mercilessly in the wake of the crashing financial markets. Only at a low of 1,680 USD on July 21st (= a discount of almost 400 USD from the high on March 8th) the gold bear temporarily disappeared after a four and a half months assault.Gold in US dollars, 4-hour chart from September 1st, 2022. Source: TradingviewSince then, a brisk recovery initially made its way back to 1,808 USD. However, this summer rally is seriously called into question with a deep pullback towards 1,702 USD as of today.In the wake of Fed President Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday in Jackson Hole, all markets came under such significant pressure. Hence, the end of the bear-market rally in financial markets is likely in place.Gold prices also had to let go again and trading at a five-week low. Thus, the threat of dropping below the extremely important support at 1,680 USD is growing by the hour.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – Back below the upper edge of the 2-year up-trend channelGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of September 1st, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold managed to catch a bid just below the upper edge of the light green uptrend channel five and a half weeks ago. This fourth low around 1,680 USD, in conjunction with a strongly oversold condition, provided a quick bounce in the order of +7.55%. However, at a high of 1,808 USD the summer rally did not run very far and did not even reach the 38.2% retracement (1,820 USD) of the entire correction wave down since March 7th. The promising buy signal from the stochastic oscillator was quickly lost again due to the weak price performance since August 10th.Thus, the situation on the weekly chart has deteriorated significantly. If gold bulls could stabilize price action around the upper edge of the light green up-trend channel once again, a second recovery wave towards the middle Bollinger Band (1,819 USD) and higher is still a possibility. But as prices are already flirting with the round psychological number of 1,700 USD, a fifth test of 1,680 USD seems to be rather imminent and would further soften this support.Hence, a breakdown below this extremely important support is very likely after all. In this case, gold could quickly plunge lower and prices around 1,625 USD would be the minimum target. However, since a break below 1,680 USD would also mean a clear dive back into the old uptrend channel, a test of the bottom of the channel (currently around 1,350 USD) would be the “worst case” scenario.Overall, the weekly chart is neutral, but a directional decision should crystallize over the coming weeks. As long as gold can defend the zone between 1,700 and 1,720 USD, there is a chance of a continuation of the summer rally. However, below 1,700 USD at the latest, the path is clearly pointing to the downside and gold is likely to sail further south in the fall together with the presumably collapsing financial markets.Daily Chart – 130 USD below the 200-day moving averageGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of September 1st, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn its daily chart, gold is currently trading 130 USD below its slightly falling 200-day line (USD 1,835). This classic moving average would have been predestined as the minimum target of the summer rally. So far, gold has not made it back to that line in the sand. Instead, bulls already ran out of steam at 1,808 USD and the deep pullback towards 1,713 USD rather confirms the bearish setup.At least, the daily stochastic oscillator is extremely oversold. But markets can remain oversold for much longer than most investors can imagine! At the moment, the lower Bollinger Band (USD 1,705) is bending to the downside and hence not offering good support.All in all, the daily chart is bearish and gold looks very weak. Given the oversold stochastic and the numerous support between USD 1,680 and USD 1,700, a continuation of the recovery towards USD 1,835 plus X still has a chance for now. Nevertheless, the dangers on the downside must be taken very seriously in view of the unstable overall situation in financial markets.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Close to the edgeCommitments of Traders for Gold as of August 27th, 2022. Source: SentimentraderThe cumulative net short position of commercial market participants has recently reduced slightly again and stood at 138,072 short sold contracts as of Tuesday, August 27th. The commercial net short position is thus again close to the threshold of 100,000 short contracts, at which one can speak of a rather bullish CoT report for the gold market.In summary, the CoT report is to be classified as cautiously bullish.Sentiment for Gold – Close to the edgeSentiment Optix for Gold as of August 27th, 2022. Source: SentimentraderIn July, gold´s sentiment had fallen to its lowest level in four years. The interim recovery led to an initial relief. Now, sentiment analysis is again measuring relatively high levels of pessimism, pointing to a contrarian opportunity in the bigger picture. However, a bottoming process may well take some time, similar to the fall of 2018. Back then, high pessimism levels occurred repeatedly over a period of almost five and a half months. This bombed-out sentiment then laid the foundation for the fulminant rise from 1,160 USD to 2,070 USD within the following two years.Overall, the sentiment traffic light is green and continues to provide a contrarian buy signal!Seasonality for Gold – Close to the edgeSeasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of August 27th, 2022. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, gold is currently right in the middle of its best phase of the year. According to the statistics of the last 54 years, this favorable timeframe typically extends from the beginning of July to the beginning of October. Accordingly, the seasonal component would still be very supportive for the next four to six weeks.Seasonality for gold and silver is still strongly bullish until early October.Macro update: Recession and stagflationFED Balance Sheet Total as of August 24th , 2022, ©Holger ZschaepitzLast Friday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a tough stance on inflation in his speech at the key central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole. He signaled new rate hikes and prepared investors for a weaker economy. In reality, however, shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet does not appear to be that easy. Last week, for example, the Fed’s total assets rose by 1.7 billion USD to 8,851.4 billion USD. In retrospect, total assets have been reduced by just 114 billion USD, or 1.3%, since the start of quantitative tightening.US-Consumer Sentiment as of August 11th, 2022. ©Y-ChartsHowever, financial markets have responded to this minor reduction in the balance sheet total in recent months with a sharp correction and a bear market. Already, U.S. consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since the early 1980s! Likewise, CEO confidence in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest level in 14 years. Many other key data are on the verge of rolling over. A recession has already been confirmed. The only question now is how bad it will actually get.Chinese property market as of August 22nd, 2022. ©Market SentimentThe already dramatic situation is intensified by the collapsing Chinese real estate market. The world’s largest and thus most important sector has already been under tremendous pressure for over a year and is increasingly collapsing. The total value amounts to more than 60 trillion USD, i.e. more than the entire US stock market and more than twice the US real estate market. S&P recently predicted a further decline of about 30%, which would be about 1.5 times worse than the 2008 financial crash. We had warned in detail and in good time about those consequences in the fall of 2021.FED balance sheet path, as of August 19, 2022. ©IGWT Gold Compass, AugustAs a result, the Fed will not be able to follow its announced course, as it has in the past (see 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2018). Instead, the Fed will have to cut interest rates next year at the latest to prevent a complete collapse. The amount of liquidity that will then be needed to stabilize the global economy will be absolutely overwhelming, dwarfing anything that has been seen until today.In the short term, however, the Fed will initially pursue its destructive course unflinchingly, thus further exacerbating the stagflationary environment. As a result, all market sectors will remain under considerable pressure in the coming weeks and months. We recommend absolute restraint and a consistent risk-off mentality, as well as a large portion of patience. However, as soon as the Fed will be forced to turn around due to the collapsing markets, gold will quickly bounce back and then also break out to new all-time highs.Conclusion: Gold – Close to the edgeAfter a three-week summer rally of more than 125 USD, gold prices quickly fell back by more than 100 USD. Due to the restrictive U.S. Federal Reserve policy and the collapsing financial markets, the way towards south seems to be the most likely road ahead. Technically speaking, the picture is quickly deteriorating, too. Only if gold can defend the last support zone between 1,680 and 1,700 USD on a daily closing price basis, the second part of the summer rally could still start. But currently trading close to 1,705 USD, gold is practically right on the brink of the abyss as last year’s support at 1,680 USD is unlikely to hold for a fifth time! Hence, a further wave down is likely to be unleashed. The scope of a breakdown could quickly assume enormous dimensions due to a then collapsing market technique and the many stops waiting below 1,680 USD.Overall, gold doesn’t look good here. The chance for another bounce is still there and would be typical for the season. At the same time, however, trading so close to the edge, the danger of falling into the abyss increases with each day. Therefore, the highest caution and restraint are recommended. In this difficult market environment, risk-off is your only choice! Cash is king right now! But don’t sell your physical gold. In fact, if gold were to correct even more sharply lower, it would be a great buying opportunity. Eventually, the Fed will have to turn around and print incredible amounts of new fiat money. But we’re not there yet. Alternatively (probability decreasing by the hour), gold can continue its summer rally. But to do so, it must stage a turnaround rather immediately.Analysis initially published on August 28th, 2022, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on September 1st, 2022.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|September 1st, 2022|Tags: FED balance, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold seasonality, Gold sentiment, quantitative tightening, Silver|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Gold – Summer rally has started

Gold – Summer rally has started

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 29.07.2022 07:15
It’s been three and half tough months for gold and silver investors. Stock market and crypto investors have been suffering since November 2021 already, though. Now, after a bloodbath of almost 400 USD in the gold market, last week’s reversal looks promising. Gold – Summer rally has started.ReviewGold prices reached an important high on March 8th, 2022, at around 2,070 USD and have since then slid into a brutal sell-off over the course of the last three and a half months. The final low of this wave down has been seen on Thursday, 21st of July, at 1,681 USD. Thus, gold has lost almost 400 USD or 18.8% in a rather short period of time.Gold in USD, 4-hour chart as of July 28th, 2022. Source: TradingviewBesides the clearly overbought situation and the euphoric sentiment in March combined with the fact that precious metals are already within a correction since August 2020, the toxic mix of interest rate hikes & quantitative tightening of U.S. monetary policy, as well as high inflation data and collapsing stock & crypto markets, and thus a rampant recession, were primarily responsible for this selling pressure and the nasty downward spiral, which unfolded in the gold market. More and more investors plagued by the stock and crypto crash were thus forced to sell their physical precious metal holdings in order to access much needed liquidity.The “summer doldrums” we had hoped for have therefore not materialized this year. Rather did gold opt for our alternative scenario, which was a further price slide. After all, however, gold was able to recover quite impulsively over the last week and touched 1,750 USD this morning. Hence, yesterday’s FOMC meeting seems to have amplified a wave of short covering in the gold market. This could very likely develop into the typical summer rally over the coming one to three months, at least.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – At the upper edge of the 4-year uptrend channelGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of July 28th, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold corrected mercilessly over the last three and a half months. Finally, prices even dropped slightly below the upper edge of the flat uptrend channel established since August 2018 (in green). Only here, at the triple bottom (1,678 USD) from last year, gold bulls managed to stabilize the price action. And judging from a candlestick perspective, those last two green candles signaling a reversal. On top, the strongly oversold stochastic oscillator looks pretty promising. The oscillator has a lot of room for a strong rally lasting several weeks to several months. However, there is no clear “buying signal” yet from the weekly oscillator.Overall, the weekly chart is still in a downtrend. A clear trend reversal is not yet present. But a stabilization is definitely succeeding. If this is indeed a sustainable bottom, a bounce or even a strong recovery should make up quite some ground in the coming two to three months.Daily Chart – Stochastic buy signalGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of July 28th, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the trend reversal is clearly visible. Since the low at 1,681 USD, gold is up more than 70 USD. This confirms our assumption that the bottom is in, and that gold has started some form of a recovery, at least. Now, the falling 200-day moving average (1,842 USD) will act as magnet and likely attract prices towards approx. 1,830 USD. Exactly here would also wait the 38.2% retracement of the entire wave down since March, which typically represents the minimum target of a countertrend move.All in all, the daily chart has been bullish for a week now and still provides a buy signal. However, the way up is paved with strong resistances. Around 1,755 to 1,760 USD, an older downtrend line is waiting. Here also begins the well-known resistance zone between 1,750 and 1,785 USD. Even stronger resistance is likely to come from the downtrend line of the last three and a half months (currently around 1,800 USD and falling fast). Below 1,700 USD and especially below 1,680 USD, however, the sell-off continues. In that unlikely case, prices around 1,625 USD must be expected.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Summer rally has startedCommitments of Traders for Gold as of July 25th, 2022. Source: SentimentraderOver the last four weeks, the cumulative net short position of the commercial market participants has dropped by another 66,307 contracts to “only” 112,262 gold contracts sold short. The commercial net short position is thus just slightly above the threshold of 100,000 short contracts, at which one can speak of a positive or bullish gold CoT report. In other words, professional market participants see less and less need to hedge against a falling gold price but are increasingly switching to the buy side due to the low gold prices.In summary, the CoT report can be classified as cautiously bullish.Sentiment for Gold – Summer rally has startedSentiment Optix for Gold as of July 25th, 2022. Source: SentimentraderThe latest sentiment data for gold measure an extremely pessimistic sentiment for the first time since the fall of 2018! For almost four years, patient gold bugs had to wait for this promising contrarian setup!Gold & Silver future contracts held by managed money as of July 25th, 2022. Source: SentimentraderNot surprisingly, asset managers currently hold the lowest cumulative number of gold and silver futures contracts in their client portfolios since August 2018, and this is the second-lowest positioning in a long-term comparison over the past 16 years. This low allocation is evidence of a very negative expectation for precious metals prices.Overall, the “sentiment traffic light” is now green and provides a contrarian buy signal!Seasonality for Gold – Summer rally has startedSeasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of June 22nd, 2022. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, gold is about to begin its typical summer rally, which statistically has usually caused precious metal prices to rise sharply in August and September over the past 54 years.Seasonality for gold and silver is strongly bullish from now on until early October.Macro update: Panic, recession, and stagflationEver since the financial crisis of 2008, all central banks have been gradually providing the banking system and thus the entire financial system with huge amounts of additional liquidity through low interest rates and “quantitative easing”. This was intended to counteract deflation. Since the beginning of the Corona crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve had once again significantly increased its holdings of government and mortgage bonds by 120 billion USD every month. However, after central bankers had long refused to acknowledge the resulting sharp rise in inflation, there have been no excuses since the official inflation rate topped 6-8% since the beginning of this year.Accordingly, the U.S. Federal Reserve had ended its bond purchases in March 2022 and announced its intention to reduce its balance sheet, which now weighs almost 9 trillion USD. Among other things, the monthly proceeds of up to 30 billion USD from maturing government bonds and up to 17.5 billion USD from maturing mortgage-backed securities were no longer to be reinvested from June 1st.Whether central bankers will succeed in a measured and slow exit from their ultra-soft monetary policy is anyone’s guess. So far, at any rate, the financial markets have reacted like a “junkie in withdrawal” to the change in central bank policy over the past seven months.FED Balance Sheet Total as of July 13th , 2022, ©Holger ZschaepitzAccording to the official data released as of July 13th, the Fed has therefore already stopped shrinking its balance sheet again, as total assets increased by 4 billion USD to 8.896 billion USD as of July 13th. The Fed’s balance sheet now represents 36.5% of U.S. GDP, compared to 82% for the ECB and 135% for the BoJ.ECB Balance Sheet Total as of July 22nd , 2022, ©Holger ZschaepitzAnd the ECB’s balance sheet has also grown again recently after three weeks of contraction. Total assets rose by 2.6 billion EUR last week to 8,769.3 billion EUR. This means that the ECB balance sheet is still close to its all-time high and is now equivalent to 82% of eurozone GDP.In any case, the damage to the global economy has already been done and will likely worsen in the coming months, as the recession increasingly reaches the real economy after more than seven months of falling stock prices. Not only have valuations of almost all companies dropped significantly, but layoffs are on the rise and pay raises, bonuses and job offers are being canceled. In addition, start-ups are finding it very difficult, if at all, to obtain financing.Real estate markets have also long since peaked, with asking prices already falling and demand for mortgages lower than at any time since 2000. Home sales are currently declining most sharply for the cheapest properties, as potential buyers here are more price-conscious and generally more affected by changes in interest rates. But luxury home sales also fell nearly 18% between February and May.I.e. the Fed will hardly be able to raise interest rates any further into the fall without completely destroying the economy. But at the same time, inflation will remain elevated, so the stagflationary environment will continue to tighten. These are excellent conditions for a rising gold price. However, commodities and precious metals typically come under significant pressure in the early stages of an economic slowdown. This is exactly what has happened now. At the latest, when the U.S. Federal Reserve has to return to a loose stance as well as quantitative easing and interest rate cuts next year, gold prices will very likely break out to new all-time highs.Conclusion: Gold – Summer rally has startedWith a buy signal on the daily chart, a bombed-out sentiment and the very favorable seasonal component, there are currently three strong arguments on the table for an imminent summer rally in the gold market. The completely oversold weekly chart and the quite constructive CoT report also support this thesis. However, the financial markets have been in a contraction à la 2008 for months, which has dragged down all asset classes. Calling a bottom early on can be dangerous in this environment.Nevertheless, the chances of a summer recovery to around 1,830 USD are very good. Higher recovery targets are also conceivable. In the short term it is important that the bottom is confirmed, and that gold can continue its recovery towards approx. 1,770 to 1,775 USD, where a breather for one to three weeks can be expected.Analysis initially published on July 27th, 2022, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on July 28th, 2022.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|July 28th, 2022|Tags: ECB balance, FED balance, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, gold seasonality, quantitative tightening, Silver|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Bitcoin – Relief rally in the summer?

Bitcoin – Relief rally in the summer?

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 16.07.2022 14:13
A worldwide asset price meltdown is shaking up the minds of all investors & traders these days. Nothing seems safe anymore and the crypto sector was hit the hardest. Bitcoin – Relief rally in the summer?ReviewWith the clear break of the support around 37,500 USD, the sell-off in the crypto sector intensified dramatically from the beginning of May and bitcoin prices plunged to 25,400 USD within just one week. Despite the already heavily oversold situation at that time, only a tentative recovery or countermovement succeeded afterwards, which already found its end at 32,375 USD.Starting June 6th, bears went directly into attack mode and pushed bitcoin prices within just 12 days down to 17,600 USD, the lowest level since December 2020. Following this crash, prices are once again only very slowly and tentatively getting back on their feet. So far, they have only managed to recover to 22,400 USD. The bottom line is that bitcoin has lost almost 75% from its all-time high around 69,000 USD on November 10th, 2021.Ethereum (-81.9%) and the larger altcoins such as Solana (-90%), Polygon (-89.2%), Chainlink (-89.6%), Cardano (-87%) were punished even more severely. The smaller altcoins, however, have almost all lost 90 – 99% across the board.Brutal wave of bankruptciesOverall, the crypto sector has been hit hard as the brutal wave of bankruptcies (Lunar, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, Voyager Digital, BlockFi, Babel Finance, etc.) has been unfolding. The chaotic turmoil has wiped out more than 2 trillion USD in market capitalization and cost thousands of jobs in just a few months. An end to the shakeout is not yet in sight due to the opaque interconnections within the industry and the large number of fraudulent speculators or inexperienced players.When asset prices collapse or a counter-party defaults on a massive loan, the lender’s  balance sheets are left with huge holes. The residual liquidation of collateral then leads to even more loans coming due, which leads to further liquidation of collateral. As a result, numerous trading venues have limited or blocked user withdrawals in recent weeks, further drying up liquidity.Retail investors who had trusted these lenders to protect their assets or, in particular, to generate high returns have, in some cases, lost everything. Add to this the fear of a global recession accompanied by the worst inflation in more than 40 years. Despite the huge losses, therefore, the end of the storm may not yet have been seen.Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin Weekly Chart – Opportunity for a recoveryBitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of July 13th, 2022. Source: TradingviewBitcoin has been in a harsh correction for a little over eight months now. Apart from a somewhat extended rally in February and March, the bulls had hardly anything to offer in terms of resistance. Even the 10-year uptrend line (dark green) was ultimately an easy game for the bears. Now, bitcoin prices cling to the middle line of the overriding uptrend channel. This, together with the completely oversold stochastic oscillator and the previous all-time high around 20,000 USD, forms a certain support, which currently seems to hold.Overall, the weekly chart is still bearish for now, but the chances of a recovery might outweigh the gloomy picture in the coming weeks. As we know from the past, bear market rallies in bitcoin can be extreme. Realistic recovery targets are around 25,400 USD and maybe 29,750 USD as well.Bitcoin Daily Chart – Bollinger bands are tighteningBitcoin in USD, daily chart as of July 13th, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, a consolidation has developed again since the low on June 18th, which could turn out to be a flag formation similar to the ones before. In any case, the low at 17,592 USD was not undercut in the last three and a half weeks. The stochastic still has an active sell signal, but the oscillator has already almost reached the oversold zone.If the stabilization around 20,000 USD succeeds at the same time, a recovery in the direction of the upper Bollinger band (22,021 USD) and up to the vicinity of the May low at 25,401 USD would be possible.In summary, the daily chart is currently still bearish. At the same time, some stabilization tendencies are visible between 19,000 USD and 21,500 USD. Together with the relatively large distance to the fast falling 200-day moving average (36,122 USD), there are some arguments for a relief rally in the summer on the table.Sentiment Bitcoin – Relief rally in the summer?Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as of July 12th, 2022. Source: LookintobitcoinThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been trading in the deep dark red panic zone since the beginning of April, and thus for more than three months now. Hence, fear in the crypto sector runs very deep.Crypto Fear & Greed Index long term, as of July 12th, 2022. Source: LookintobitcoinIn the big picture, the current dark red situation in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index resembles the setup from January 2019. Back then, the crypto winter had also hit brutally, and it took almost three months for bitcoin to get a massive recovery rally going. New lows were not seen in the bottoming phase back then.Overall, the beaten down panic sentiment provides the best contrarian buy signal in over two years!Seasonality BitcoinSeasonality for bitcoin, as of July 11th, 2022. Source: SeasonaxDue to the weak price performance in the first six months of this year, the still young seasonal pattern for bitcoin has weakened or flattened significantly. Nevertheless, according to the statistics, there should be a wave down starting at the end of August, which could possibly run parallel to another sell-off in the stock markets. There, too, September has not earned itself a good name, but is traditionally regarded as the worst month of the year for the stock market. Until mid-August, however, the seasonal outlook does not stand in the way of a small recovery rally in the crypto sector.Overall, the seasonal component continues to urge patience and caution. The situation should not brighten up until mid/late October from a statistical perspective. A small summer rally, however, would be possible in the coming weeks.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of July 12th, 2022.Source: TradingviewAnalogous to the crash of bitcoin, the bitcoin/gold-ratio also fell in recent months and is currently trading around 11.5. Thus, Bitcoin has lost almost 75% against gold since November 2021! At current prices of  around 20,000 USD for one Bitcoin and around 1,710 USD for a troy ounce of gold, one has to pay almost 11.5 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Put another way, an ounce of gold currently costs about 0.085 bitcoin.Given the strongly oversold situation on the weekly chart near the 78.6% retracement, the chances for a countermovement or recovery are not that bad at the moment. In the best case, a retracement to the broken support in the area around 15 to 16 would be conceivable. If bitcoin bears remain in control, however, the ratio could also be pushed directly down to around 5 to 6 in the coming months.Allocation of sound moneyGenerally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% up to a maximum of 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least 1% but max. 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, a maximum of 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold and bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense, you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin, you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesIn summary, the bitcoin/gold-ratio suggests a recovery in favor of bitcoin in the coming weeks. One should not hope for too much given the difficult overall situation, but a rise to around 15 seems possible. While gold often lost out in 2020 and 2021, it was able to fully play out its conservative character this year and is the longed-for safe haven in the portfolio despite slight price declines.Macro Update – Panic & Recession of 2022The world is changing faster than ever before. The political landscape is shifting rapidly around the world and becoming more unpredictable by the day. While technology is changing everything we do, tensions in society are increasing in almost every part of the world. Yet, an ounce of gold remains an ounce of gold. Likewise, one bitcoin remains one bitcoin.Global Credit Impulse, as of July 7th, 2022. ©The Macro Compass & Alfonso PeccatielloMore than 50 years after Nixon repealed the gold standard, monetary policy has its back against the wall, as the Fed’s fight against inflation could soon plunge the world into a depressive abyss. Just two weeks after the start of its quantitative tightening program, the markets are already behaving like a junkie in withdrawal. Due to massive fiscal pressures as well as hesitant refinancing activity in the private sector, we are now witnessing a contraction in credit creation that is even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008!The Fed’s balancing act of fighting inflation without triggering severe dislocations in the markets is therefore doomed to fail. The vehemence of the tightening cycle that has just begun threatens to turn the “Everything Bubble” into an “Everything Crash.”When will the Fed end its tightening cycle?US Yield Curve vs. Prior Tightening Cycles, as of July 12, 2022. ©Crescat Capital & Tavi CostaIt is therefore realistic to expect that US monetary policy will have to deviate from the current hawkish monetary policy stance sooner rather than later and make a U-turn. However, it cannot be ruled out that the FED will once again act far too late. Currently, the yield curve in the US is already turning. In the past 30 years, this constellation has forced the Fed to end its tightening cycle every time. Since the systemic risk is now greater than ever before in history, the Fed can no longer afford to make a wrong decision.Fed pivot indicator, as of July 11th, 2022. ©TheHappyHawaiianIn fact, some indications now suggest that the FED will have to react soon. With the next rate hike, the FED would presumably and knowingly blow up the financial system. Hence, even the verbal suggestion that rate hikes would be suspended or at least slowed down should therefore be enough at the moment to trigger a summer relief rally in all markets. Likewise, somewhat weaker U.S. inflation data is expected due to the global contraction, which the markets should also take with great relief.In addition, the U.S. dollar index has had a tremendous ride, rising almost uninterruptedly by a total of +21.25% over the past 14 months. A breather in the U.S. dollar should bring a sigh of relief in the equity, commodity, precious metals and crypto markets. Overall, the chances for a recovery in all markets during the coming summer weeks are therefore not bad. From mid-August or September at the latest, however, the bears are likely to come back.Conclusion: Bitcoin – Relief rally in the summer?After a month-long sell-off, including a nasty wave of bankruptcies, bitcoin is currently trading just below 20,000 USD. Eight months ago, very few people would have expected this. Now, however, bullish market participants are rare and numerous experts are coming up with renewed lower price targets for bitcoin. The bitcoin network itself, on the other hand, completely unimpressed by the “Lehman moment” in the crypto sector, continues to process any cryptographically legitimate payments via a computer network of equal computers (peer-to-peer) without any problems.In the context of the equity markets, which have also seen a severe correction and have correlated strongly with the crypto sector in recent months, a short-term recovery opportunity can be discerned due to the heavily oversold situation. In fact, a summer relief rally towards around 25,000 USD and maybe even close to around 30,000 USD could be possible, especially if inflation declines slightly and the Fed adopts a somewhat milder tone. Nevertheless, the end of the crypto winter is still likely to be a long time away. In any case, prices below 20,000 USD offer a good entry opportunity in the long run. But we believe that a bottom around 10,000 USD is more likely in the next 3 to 12 months.Analysis sponsored and initially published on July 13th, 2022, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on July 14th, 2022.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, commodities, and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure:This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|July 14th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, bonds, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Cryptowinter, Gold, NASDAQ, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Silver – Summer doldrums with final sell-off, then summer rally

Silver – Summer doldrums with final sell-off, then summer rally

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.06.2022 14:36
Silver managed to gain 10% from its last low on May 13th at 20.46 USD as initially expected. Despite this recent recovery high at 22.52 USD, the situation remains tense and corrective. E.g. the recovery could not even reach the minimum target at 22.64 USD and silver prices, currently trading at 21.39 USD, are not far away from the low of the year. Not much is missing, and the broad support zone of the last two years above 20.50 USD would finally be broken. Silver – Summer doldrums with final sell-off, then summer rally.In view of the toxic cocktail of interest rate hikes, liquidity shortages as well as excess inventories and a potential collapse in demand due to the strong correction in financial markets, precious metals initially may find it difficult to completely escape the current selling pressure. In the best case, however, gold and silver will begin to price in a policy change by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) at an early stage. Presumably, however, it will likely take more pain and significantly lower stock markets first. Only then will the Fed return to its easy money policy. Already, the stress in the financial system is higher than it has been at any point in time since 2008.Silver price in US-Dollar, daily chart: Clearly below the falling 200-day lineSilver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of June 27th, 2022. ©Midas Touch ConsultingOn the daily chart, silver is not getting back on its feet despite the interim recovery. As before, the price action takes place clearly below the falling 200-day moving average line (23.32 USD). Thus, the situation remains corrective and bearish. Consequently, the bears likely will try to push silver prices back towards the lows of the year. It currently only takes 1 USD to continue the series of lower lows again. The daily stochastic has reached its oversold zone, but so far the momentum oscillator does not yet provide any signs of a trend reversal. In the environment of a strongly fallen copper price as well as the collapsed stock markets, we must therefore assume that new lows in silver are just a question of time.Silver seasonality as of June 24th, 2022. ©Sentimentrader and Gold.deNevertheless, there is a good chance in the coming weeks that silver will find its classic bottom in early summer and then start its typical summer rally into fall. Statistically, the precious metals find an early summer bottom between mid-June and mid-August, followed by three strong months. For silver, this seasonal pattern is not quite as pronounced as for gold, but a rally in the gold market is likely to drag silver along with it.Silver CoT Report as of June 24th, 2022. ©Sentimentrader and Gold.deThe assumption of a summer rally is also supported by the current CoT Report. Accordingly, commercial traders have reduced their cumulative net short position to 27,250 contracts. At the very least, a complete crash in silver can probably be ruled out from this perspective. A few more tough weeks with falling or sideways meandering prices should, however, still be expected in any case.ConclusionIn summary, the technical setup points to a rather muted price action and a continuation of the correction in the short term. The second leg of the correction, which has been underway since March, should therefore be expected somewhere between approx. 18.50 and 20.50 USD. From around mid-July to mid-August, however, the start of a summer rally in the silver market is likely. Whether this will fizzle out like a lukewarm breeze in the difficult macro environment until the fall or could possibly have the makings of a new bull market leg in the direction of 30 USD and higher remains to be seen, However, in the medium and especially in the long term, silver “only” needs to clear the 30 USD mark to unleash a run towards the all-time high around 50 USD. Until then, however, silverbugs will have to be patient.Silver in Euro – New buy limit at 19.50 EURThe seasonal pattern for silver typically delivers an important low somewhere between June and August. Hence, a buy limit for silver finally makes sense again. With a bit of luck, silver will come back towards at least the 20.50 USD level or somewhat lower. Due to the correcting US-Dollar, we could see silver slightly below 20 EUR. We therefore place a new buy limit at 20.20 EUR, to make sure we can add to our physical silver holdings during the summer lows.Our buy limit at 20.20 EUR, mentioned on May 29th, was filled on June 1st. Since the correction in the silver market still does not seem to be over and, in addition, the seasonal pattern typically provides an important low between June and August, another buy limit makes sense. Hence, we reduce our next buy limit slightly to 19.50 EUR. But those who want to increase their physical silver and gold holdings (recommendation min. 5% and max. 25% of total assets) do find good buying opportunities at current prices already.Analysis initially published on June 24th, 2022, by www.gold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on June 27th, 2022.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|June 27th, 2022|Tags: Euro, Gold, gold seasonality, Gold/Silver-Ratio, negative seasonal cycle until june, precious metals, Seasonality, sentiment, Silver, silver CoT-Report, Silver in EUR, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Gold – Summer doldrums for several weeks would be ideal

Gold – Summer doldrums for several weeks would be ideal

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.06.2022 14:35
Gold had a strong start into the year but has corrected significantly since early March. Many gold bugs feel disappointed by gold basically going nowhere over the last two years. But compared to most other markets, gold has actually done rather well over the last six months. Gold – Summer doldrums for several weeks would be ideal.ReviewOn May 16th, with a low at around 1,787 USD, gold prices fell back to its lowest level since the end of January. Since then, prices initially managed to modestly recover towards 1,869 USD. Subsequently, however, gold failed to overcome the resistance zone between 1,865 USD and 1,875 USD. Yet, at the same time, stock markets slid significantly deeper into a bear market.Hence, on the one hand, the panic in the markets together with the high inflation data repeatedly caused a reflex flight into the safe haven of gold. On the other hand, however, the gold market also repeatedly came under pressure due to the increasing lack of liquidity in the markets. Overall, gold prices therefore traded sideways in a rather volatile fashion between 1,815 USD and 1,875 USD over the course of the last four weeks. The danger of a more significant slide below 1,800 USD has not yet been averted, though.Gold in US-Dollars, 4-hour chart as of June 26th, 2022. Source: TradingviewOnly in the last few days the gold market seems to be calming down a bit as the daily fluctuations are starting to narrow. This behavior is typical for the summer months of June and July. Ideally, the price action will therefore continue to calm down in the coming weeks, while gold prices can maintain eye contact with the 200-day moving average line (currently around 1,843 USD).Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – The correction of the last three months is running into a bullish wedgeGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of June 26th, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold has been in a correction since the early March high at 2,070 USD. Since mid-May, gold bulls have been struggling to stabilize around or above the dark green uptrend line (currently around 1,820 USD). However, gold prices have been consolidating in a broad range between 1,680 USD and 2,075 USD for the last two years already. If the dark green uptrend-line can be defended on a weekly closing price basis in the coming weeks, the chances for a breakout to the upside and subsequently also for the typical summer rally are very good. A possible target on the upside in this case would be the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart (currently 1,998 USD) until fall.Alternatively, and this scenario has a somewhat increased probability in the current highly depressed market environment, the dark green uptrend-line cannot be defended. In that case, the emerging bullish wedge takes hold, which could initially lead to another shake out of all weak hands with prices plunging towards the next support around 1,765 USD to 1,750 USD first. This “worst case” would also mean a pullback to the upper edge of the turquoise uptrend channel, which has driven gold higher since December 2015 when gold hit an eight-year low at 1,045 USD.The weekly stochastic is getting oversoldOn the positive side, the weekly stochastic is getting oversold. Although the oscillator has not yet succeeded in igniting momentum to the upside, the downside risk seems limited. A few more weeks of bland sideways trading could put the stochastic in an ideal starting position for the sooner or later expected summer rally.All in all, the weekly chart is neutral. Gold may simply continue to meander sideways through the chart between roughly speaking 1,800 USD and 1,870 USD in the coming weeks. Alternatively, there will one more wave down, whereby a bulwark of support around and above 1,750 USD at the latest should initiate the summer rally.Daily Chart – Consolidation around the 200-day moving average lineGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of June 26th, 2022. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, gold has been consolidating around its flat-lining 200-day moving average ($1,844) for weeks. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are also moving sideways between 1,873 USD and 1,814 USD. Ideally, the two bands will contract and narrow further in the coming weeks. Then there would be the ideal condition for a so-called “Bollinger Band Squeeze”, which could deliver a strong breakout move in July or latest by August. The Stochastic is also running sideways without momentum and should still reach the oversold zone in the coming days or weeks.However, if the dark green support line does not hold, further downside potential to the light green support line (currently around 1,770 USD) is activated. In this case, the correction since March would have taken the form of a bullish wedge. Until August or even September, the bears would then probably be busy exploring the downside as much as possible. Only afterwards, however, the wedge formation should then bring a bullish price explosion.Overall, the daily chart is neutral to bearish and indicates at least further need for consolidation. Ideally, the gold market will fall asleep in the coming weeks. However, if the bulls can still defend the dark green uptrend line as well as the 200-day moving average, the summer rally could start between mid-July and mid-August. However, below 1,800 USD at the latest, the wedge scenario would be activated, which should initially push prices towards 1,775 USD and 1,750 USD again, before a delayed start of the summer rally from lower levels should then occur.Commitments of Traders for GoldCommitments of Traders for Gold as of June 26th, 2022. Source: SentimentraderThe cumulative net short position of the commercial market participants has further decreased in recent weeks. Currently, the commercials “only” hold 186,929 COMEX gold future contracts sold short. This is the first time since nearly three years that the futures market has finally given a neutral signal. This neutral signal exists for a cumulative net short position between approx. 100,000 and 200,000 contracts. Since the breakout to above 1,500 USD in the summer of 2019, this is one of the best CoT reports the gold market has seen since then.In a long-term comparison, however, this constellation still does not provide a contrarian buy signal. Until an ideal contrarian setup would be reached, the commercial short position would still have to shrink to below 100,000 contracts.In summary, the CoT report currently provides a neutral signal.Sentiment for Gold – Summer doldrums for several weeks would be idealSentiment Optix for Gold as of June 22nd, 2022. Source: SentimentraderAfter the crash-like sell-offs in the stock markets in recent weeks and months, sentiment has sunk to a new panic low.  In the gold market, the sentiment has fallen to the lowest optimism level since the spring of 2019, too. In a long-term comparison, however, the current level of the Sentiment Optix for gold with a value of 40 is not yet sufficient for an contrarian buy signal. There would still be room until the panic zone below 30.The sentiment traffic light therefore remains neutral, but a contrarian buy signal is getting closer.Seasonality for Gold – Summer doldrums for several weeks would be idealSeasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of June 22nd, 2022. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, the gold market has reached its classic bottoming window since mid-June. In the past, this usually brought a sideways summer lull. Starting from end of July or latest by mid-August a new and trending move should come into the gold market again. With a rather high probability, such a rally should last into September, at least. Until then, however, patience, caution and restraint are still recommended.In total, gold could still run sideways or correct further in the coming four to about six weeks. According to the seasonal pattern, however, from the beginning or mid of August one should then be fully positioned again.Macro update:For more than 50 years now, the central banks, and especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, have gradually expanded the fiat money supply. Since the 2008 financial crisis and especially since the Covid crash in March 2020, the markets have been flooded with liquidity on a gigantic scale. The artificially low and negative interest rates have been in place since 2008, and together with the supply constraints created by the global lockdowns which are responsible for the dysfunctional supply chains, a huge wave of inflation has now been unleashed over the last year and a half. We had accurately forecasted this in time back in the spring of 2020.German producer prices vs. German consumer prices as of June 20th, 2022, ©Holger ZschaepitzWhile consumer prices in Germany have recently risen by a whopping 7.9%, German producer prices are still exploding vertically higher, currently reaching a new record high of 33.6%. Yet after all, 10-year inflation expectations as measured by inflation-linked bonds have fallen sharply recently due to the falling markets and are now at 2.18%, almost 72 basis points below the all-time high of March.ECB Balance Sheet Total as of June 17th , 2022, ©Holger ZschaepitzDespite record-high inflation, however, the ECB continues to keep its printing presses running, with the result that the ECB’s balance sheet total recently rose by another 7 billion EUR to its current level of 8,827.9 billion EUR. This means that the ECB’s balance sheet is now equivalent to 82.41% of eurozone GDP. In America, the Fed’s balance sheet total is “only” 36.63% of U.S. GDP.The global devaluation race As of June 22nd, 2022, ©Holger ZschaepitzObviously, the ECB headquarter in Frankfurt believes that there is still a lot of room to go up compared to the Bank of Japan’s 136.96% total assets/GDP. However, the dramatic losses in the Japanese yen clearly show where the euro is headed. The term “liraization of the euro” has already become established among experts in recent years and is now gaining momentum in reality.Logically, and in view of rising inflation, the interest rates demanded by the credit markets also shot up. For example, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has exploded by a factor of 9.6 since the summer of 2020, from 0.33% to 3.495%! The U.S. Federal Reserve is lagging behind this development and has started to raise key interest rates much too late. At the same time, “quantitative easing” (QE) was terminated and on July 1st, the so-called “quantitative tightening” begins, with which liquidity is withdrawn from the markets. Now the Fed will probably have to raise interest rates into a recession, putting all asset classes under enormous pressure.Meme: Real estate is next…The consequences have already been eating their way through the financial markets at an accelerating pace since November 2021. And hence, the picture is currently turning towards a price collapse caused by a toxic mix of interest rate hikes, liquidity shortages and, in addition, excess inventories combined with a potential collapse in demand. All stock markets are therefore already in a bear market. The sell-off, especially in tech stocks, has been brutal. Bond markets are under tremendous pressure as well. On top of that, the crypto markets have been completely torn apart. The stress within the financial system is higher than it has been at any point since 2008. Monthly real estate loan rate in the U.S., as of June 22nd, 2022, ©Michael McDonough.Real estate prices are likely next, as monthly loan rates have already nearly doubled since the Corona Crash in March 2020.This means that it is already foreseeable that central banks will have to take a massive U-turn again in the next three to twelve months and start supporting the markets once again with interest rate cuts and liquidity measurements. In the short-term to medium-term, however, the markets are most likely heading into a recession, and could quickly slide into a depression too.Meme: Great Depression 2.0 vs. Weimar 2.0In the medium and above all longer-term, central bankers will very likely take the path of lesser pain and once again use their printing presses. Unemployment will rise abruptly, at the latest, as markets crash further into fall when companies will likely start to cut jobs on a large scale in the second half of the year. Since the markets, like a junkie, have become totally dependent on stimulation by the FED & Co. and easy money through artificially low-interest rates over the past two decades, there will be no other way out than to lower interest rates again. After all, the FED will have built up a small toolbox by then, while the ECB has not even started its rate hike cycle yet. We continue to suspect that gold will be one of the first to start pricing in a monetary policy change in the next three to twelve months. However, we are not there yet.Conclusion: Gold – Summer doldrums for several weeks would be ideal.At the start of the summer and just before the end of the first half of the year, the gold market has entered a traditionally rather quiet phase of the year. Although no stone has been left unturned during this trading year so far, the probability that gold will once again allow itself an early summer nap is quite high. After the three-and-a-half-month correction since the beginning of March, the setup is already quite promising. At least the weekly chart is halfway oversold and would deliver the launching pad for a trending wave into the fall. Whether this wave up would then only run to just under 2,000 USD or could perhaps have what it takes to break out to new all-time highs, cannot be seriously forecasted at the moment. However, the next few weeks should provide information on how strong the traditional summer rally in the gold market could be. With a bit of luck, every few years a bull market starts at the height of the summer, lasting well into spring of the next year and bringing a complete revaluation of the gold price. In this case, gold would have to break out above 2,050 USD in fall.Gold – summer doldrums for several weeks would be idealGiven the current environment, this very bullish scenario comes with major question marks, of course. The ongoing contraction in the financial markets is likely to affect gold prices too. But a “gold – summer doldrums for several weeks would be ideal” as a launching pad for the typical summer rally. The alternative scenario would see a further drop towards and below 1,800 USD first. The summer rally should then start late and from lower levels at around 1,750 USD or slightly higher. In this case, a breakout above 2,000 USD in the further course of the year would be rather very unlikely.The G7´s latest decision to ban Russian gold imports might actually contribute to gold’s next leg higher. Most of Russia’s gold has either stayed within the country or had been shipped and processed via Switzerland. From where the vast majority then went to the Middle East and Asia. Banning these imports will give China and India the opportunity to buy more gold directly from Russia at a discount and will deprive western markets of 19 billion USD worth of gold per year. Once again, the west has shot itself in the knee.Analysis initially published on June 23rd, 2022, by www.celticgold.de. Translated into English and partially updated on June 26th, 2022.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|June 27th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, gold seasonality, quantitative tightening, Silver|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
Apple May Rise Price For iPhone 14! Are Fuel Warehouses Empty?

(BTC) Bitcoin – Risk-Off dominates all markets

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.04.2022 17:28
While we extended our holidays until end of April, markets have becoming severely under pressure in recent weeks. Not only the stock-market, which is in a correction and probably in a bear market since mid of last November already, but also and especially the bond markets are making negative headlines these days. A liquidity crunch is in the air. Accordingly, Bitcoin has been weak and also paints a picture of a bear market. Bitcoin – Risk-Off dominates all markets. Review Since the crash low on January 24th, 2022, at US$32,950, bitcoin, and thus the entire crypto sector in general, have been striving to recover. However, this recovery has been rather slow over the past three months and was mainly characterized by a confusing back-and-forth. It was not until mid-March that the bulls were able to spark a bit more momentum on the upside. In the process, bitcoin reached pretty much exactly its 200-day moving average (currently $47,623) at $48,234. From the January low, this represented a recovery of a around 46% within two months. However, the reunion with its 200-day moving average ended in a bitter disappointment for bitcoin, as it was followed by a sharp sell-off to a low of US$37,700 on April 26th. With this, bitcoin has fallen deep back into its bottoming zone from January and February and is currently trading far away from its all-time high at US$69,000. The bond markets are imploding In addition to the corrective structure that has been intact since the all-time high on November 10th,2021 (crypto winter), the sharp rise in interest rates caused massive stress and distortions in all market sectors in recent weeks. Accordingly, the resulting increasing “risk-off attitude” among market participants is having a particularly strong impact on the crypto sector. An end to this stress is not in sight but could instead gain further momentum in the coming months regardless of any interim countertrend movements. Technical Analysis for Bitcoin in US-Dollar Bitcoin Weekly Chart – Questionable recovery Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of April 27th, 2022. Source: Tradingview Since the double top at US$65,000 and US$69,000 and the subsequent crash down to US$32,950, bitcoin has been slow to get back on its feet. The recovery since the end of January has been in a flat uptrend channel, which can be classified as a kind of bearish flag. The recovery to just above US$48,000 failed exactly at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and clearly signals weakness. The recent sell signal on the weekly stochastics confirms this. If bitcoin breaks out of the flat uptrend channel to the downside, there would quickly be room to around US$30,000 USD and lower. Positive signals on the weekly chart, however, are scarce. At most, the broad support zone between approx. US$38,000 and US$42,000 should be mentioned, from which another recovery could take place at any time. Overall, the weekly chart is bearish and clearly confirms a negative cycle. If the uptrend channel breaks, the sell-off in bitcoin and the altcoins is likely to accelerate. Bitcoin Daily Chart – How long will the flat uptrend channel hold? Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of April 27th, 2022. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, the failure at the 200-day moving average (US$47,630) weighs heavily. In the last three weeks, bitcoin quickly lost more than US$10,000, while the bulls were not able to stage any meaningful countermovement in the meantime. Currently, bitcoin can just barely hold within its uptrend channel. However, the set up is certainly not bullish. With the lower Bollinger Band (US$38,185), another support is also wobbling. However, should the bulls be able to use the slightly oversold situation for a bounce, there is room to about US$42,500 and at best to about US$44,200. In summary, the daily chart is bearish, but slightly oversold. Since the mood in the crypto sector as well as overall in the financial markets is currently quite bad and slightly panicky, a surprising recovery would be quite conceivable. However, this should not change the overriding larger downtrend. Sentiment Bitcoin – Risk-Off dominates all markets Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as of April 27th, 2022. Source: Lookintobitcoin The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 21 out of 100 points, signaling high fear among market participants. Crypto Fear & Greed Index longterm, as of April 27th, 2022. Source: Lookintobitcoin In the bigger picture, the Crypto Fear & Greed has not shown any green signs since mid-November. If we compare the course of the last five months with the development in 2018, it quickly becomes clear that the crypto sector, like then, no longer succeeds in optimistic sentiment and we must therefore assume an established bear market. Therefore, the poor sentiment does not currently provide a contrarian buying opportunity, but rather confirms the bear market regime. All in all, despite the bombed-out sentiment, our sentiment analysis does not currently yield a contrarian buy signal, but rather calls for caution and restraint. So far, every crypto bear market has ended with a nasty final sell-off, in which many altcoins quickly lost another 50 – 70% in value. Seasonality Bitcoin Seasonality for bitcoin, as of April 27th, 2022. Source: Seasonax Based on the seasonal pattern of the last 11 years, bitcoin should actually be at the beginning of a multi-month wave up. Statistically, the seasonal component is still very favorable until around mid-June. It is therefore quite possible that bitcoin will now manage at least a kore or less solid bounce in the coming weeks after this sharp sell-off. So far this year, however, market activity has not adhered to the seasonal pattern. Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. Gold Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of April 27th, 2022.Source: Tradingview After a loss of over 50% against gold, the bitcoin/gold-ratio was able to recover to just under 25 by the end of March. However, the ratio could not hold those gains for long, and ultimately failed just below the 38.2% retracement (25.42) of the previous wave down. At prices of currently about US$38,900 for a bitcoin and about US$1,900 for one ounce of gold, one has to pay a good 20.50 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Put another way, an ounce of gold currently buys you about 0.0488 bitcoin. The weekly chart for the bitcoin/gold-ratio suggests further weakness for bitcoin, as the recovery was ultimately rather shallow, and the ratio is approaching a key support line. The stochastic oscillator activated a new sell signal, too. Regardless of short-term recoveries, the ratio could therefore fall below the major support between 18 and 16 in the coming months. Then, a continuation of the correction towards approx. 10 would be possible. Allocation of sound money Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% up to a maximum of 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least 1% but max. 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, a maximum of 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline! Overall, you want to own gold and bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense, you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian Grummes In summary, the recovery in the bitcoin/gold ratio seems to be over. Over the coming 3 to 10 months, the market could approach and test the support between 16 and 18. This means that the gold price will outperform bitcoin until the end of the crypto winter. Macro Update: In the bond markets an avalanche has started rolling Global bond market as of April 24, 2022. ©Holger Zschaepitz The bursting of the biggest bond bubble of all time has been causing increasing stress throughout the financial system in recent months. Driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike rhetoric and skyrocketing inflation figures, a good US$7 billion has already been wiped out since the all-time high mid of last year. This is putting enormous pressure on the equity, credit and real estate markets. It seems as if an avalanche has started rolling down the hill. U.S. Government Bond 10-years, dated April 25, 2022. ©Midas Touch Consulting. Since 1981, the yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds has been in a never-ending downward trend. Anyone who speculated against falling interest rates was mercilessly proven wrong. Now, however, it looks like this mega-trend ended in March 2020 with absolute record low interest rates. Since then, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has increased nearly eightfold and is scraping the top of the 41-year downtrend channel. If this is an inverse shoulder-head-shoulder formation, a rise in U.S. yields to 10% over the next few months or years would be quite possible. This sharp rally also gives the impression that the Fed has lost control of the bond market. Institutional investors in particular are likely to be sitting on gigantic losses. From this perspective, the strong pressure in all market segments makes sense. It should even continue to build up in the medium term. The recent extremely high inflation data should also decline significantly by the end of the year due to the spreading crisis. On top, commodity markets appear overheated and are probably ripe for a healthy correction after the strong rally over the past two years. Not only Bitcoin – Risk-Off dominates all markets Cyclical Cost-Conditions Index, as of April 23, 2022. ©Michael Kantrowitz We take the current situation very seriously and expect a tightening of the “risk-off mentality” and a nasty liquidity crunch until fall, as every market participant is now scrambling to still somehow raise cash. Especially the collapsing stock markets and tech stocks are likely to remain under pressure regardless of short-term recoveries. Bitcoin as well as the entire crypto sector as highly speculative “risk-on vehicles” are also likely to be massively affected. Those who have built up a high cash position now and can hold it through to the fall should be presented with brilliant entry opportunities in all markets. Conclusion: Risk-Off dominates all markets The financial markets are increasingly dominated by the flight into cash since the bond markets are implodin and tech stocks (Meta -51%, Netflix -71%, PayPal -73%) have been brutally slaughtered. The US-Dollar is the only one to gain. Commodity and precious metals prices are also coming under increasing pressure. It smells like the summer of 2008! Nevertheless, in the short term, there could be a reaction back above US$40,000 and towards US$42,000 to US$44,000 or even higher. After all, sharp but misleading recoveries always occur in any bear market. These are triggered by a temporary short squeeze, where short sellers have to cover their positions. However, these sharp recoveries then quickly collapse again. Bitcoin has not seen anything like this since January. Hence, the next major recovery would be a selling opportunity! In the big picture, bitcoin is still trading in the large sideways range between roughly $30,000 and $65,000. There are increasing signs that a retest of the underside around US$30,000 could occur in the coming months, regardless of any intervening recoveries. A very defensive approach to the financial markets is strongly recommended. Analysis sponsored and initially published on April 27th, 2022, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on April 27th, 2022. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals, commodities, and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|April 27th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, bonds, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Gold, technical analysis|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
The big boys are playing yoyo

The big boys are playing yoyo

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 30.03.2022 18:58
With a large trading range between US$1,930 and US$1,890 yesterday was another memorable trading day in the gold market. Already the start into this trading week had a stale flavor as gold dropped to US$1,917 on Monday.First notice day of COMEX April futures on ThursdayThe background story might once again be a toxic mix of institutional window-dressing towards the end of the quarter coupled with the expiry date of the COMEX April gold options as well as the expiration of the April future contracts. Next is the first notice day of COMEX April futures on Thursday, March 31st. Hence, whoever is long gold April contracts at the close of today must have the account fully funded (full price of the contract) with the intention to take physical delivery.The big boys and the bullion banks are playing this game successful for decades already. Their goal is to discourage long gold contract holders from taking physical delivery and spook retail money from buying gold with these crazy, volatile moves. On top, the current macro setup warrants further attacks on gold, as the petrodollar system is under severe pressure due to the sanctions against Russia and the exclusion of Russia from the Swift system. Russia will only accept rubles, oil and bitcoin for its gas and oil. A move that shady dictators paid with their power and their lives in the past. However, Russia is a different caliber though, and we can only hope that the warmongers in the east and west will calm down quickly. Realistically, however, we must rather assume the worst!In the very short-term, gold might remain under pressure, even though yesterday’s V-recovery is looking promising. On the first notice day and thereafter, gold might then be allowed to more or less freely trade again.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 30th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 30th, 2022.On the weekly chart, the big reversal candle still dictates the picture. Due to that, we have to assume that at some point gold will need to test the triangle breakout zone around US$1,820 to US$1,850. However, this could take months.For the last two weeks, gold has been trading sideways in a very volatile fashion between US$1,890 and US$1,965. The long wicks indicated that prices between US$1,890 and US$1,915 might encourage buyers to step in again. Obviously, this support has to hold. Otherwise, more downside will be activated.Since the stochastic oscillator is on a sell signal, gold remains vulnerable in the medium term. It will take much more time until the oscillator would reach its oversold zone for a contrarian buy signal.Overall, the weekly chart is bearish and continues to advise caution and patience.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 30th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 30th, 2022.The rather good news is coming from the daily chart since the stochastic oscillator is kind of oversold and hence in a promising position for another recovery rally. A bounce back to last Friday’s high at US$1,965 seems possible. And even a further recovery towards US$2,000 still seems possible.Overall, the daily chart is once again slightly oversold, and gold might start another bounce soon.  Conclusion: The big boys are playing YoyoWith inflation moving towards double digits, worldwide energy and food supply in danger and a war in Ukraine, whose end is unfortunately not in sight, everyone is well advised to park part of their assets in the safe haven of physical precious metals. While the fundamentals for gold are more bullish than ever, the price action has been a nerve-wracking roller coaster over the last few weeks. It seems that this is the only way to hold off a mainstream run into gold.However, with many central banks (especially in the Middle East) urgently needing to diversify out of their US-Dollar nominated assets and Russians now trading oil for gold, gold prices should remain well-supported for the time being. At the same time, a deflationary spiral is constantly lurking in the background. Just two days ago, the G7 countries rejected the Russian demand for gas and oil payment in rubles. However, the German industry desperately needs the Russian natural gas for its plants. An expert from BASF warned of the dramatic consequences of an immediate import stop for the chemical giant. A production stop due to energy shortages would be disastrous and very deflationary, of course.Furthermore, central bankers in the U.S. and the EU as well as in China and many other countries will have to continue expanding the money supply anyway, otherwise liquidity-dependent markets and hence all asset prices would suffer severe withdrawal symptoms and would be taken down sharply, too.Yet, while technically nearly everything speaks for an ongoing breakout above the multi-year cup & handle pattern in the gold market, such a deflationary wave could hit gold as well. In fact, gold is a master of anticipating such upheavals.Another bounce is likelyFor now, we assume that gold should hold its support around US$1,880 and US$1,915 and start another bounce within the next few days. This bounce could take prices back towards the well-known resistance zone around US$1,960. We also see some chances for a larger bounce back towards and slightly above US$2,000.To summarize, gold should soon rally towards US$1,960 again. A weekly close below US$1,900, however, would cloud the picture significantly and the bears will likely shift up a gear. On the upside, the bulls need a convincing close above US$2,030 to come back into control of all important timeframes.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 30th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.03.2022 10:13
Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Strong reversal should lead to another leg up

Strong reversal should lead to another leg up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.02.2022 20:32
Looking back, gold has been rising nearly US$225 since December 15th, 2021, and US$195 since 28th of January 2022. Especially the strong rally over the last four weeks caught many by surprise. But our price target of US$1,975 was hit exactly last Thursday, when all other markets plunged in anticipation of strong sanctions against Russia. Markets then strongly recovered on Friday on hopes of weak sanctions and a potential postponement of the rate hikes by the FED. Over the weekend, however, NATO and its partners announced SWIFT sanctions against Russia. Monday will therefore likely be another wild and volatile day in the markets. But “peak fear” has probably been reached last Thursday (at least for now). Give peace a chance ðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡·ðŸ‡ºðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡ºðŸ‡¦ðŸ•Šï¸Â Fundamentally, banning Russian banks from SWIFT payments will lead to Russia stop selling oil & natural gas. Russian oil represents about 9% of global output and there’s an energy shortage already. The result will be a global depression and more inflation at the same time. And that would be the best-case scenario, cause as quickly as things unfold, WWIII is no longer an unthinkable horror scenario. We can only hope that successful peace negotiations will take place as soon as possible. In these uncertain times, gold should remain supported. As geopolitical events unfold, another sharp spike higher is always possible. A direct transition back into the correction, which began in August 2020, is unlikely. It would rather take much more time (at least a few months), before gold could drift back towards significantly lower grounds. Our maximum downside remains at US$1,625 for the potential 8-year cycle low, due in 2023 or 2024. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. On its weekly chart, gold continues to be in an uptrend. The breakout above the downtrend line led to a sharp advance over the last two weeks. The stochastic oscillator still has a buy signal in place. And with the sharp reversal/pullback since reaching $1,975, gold did close the week right at its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,889). Since the upper Bollinger Band has been bent upwards, gold will now have more room to continue its rally to the upside over the coming two to four weeks. However, the stochastic oscillator is about to reach its overbought zone. Comparing its behavior to the last 16 months, we have to assume that gold will have a hard time nesting up in the overbought zone for long. Hence, corrective price action is on the horizon. Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish and points to another attack towards US$1,950 to US$1,975. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. The daily chart captures the sharp rally as well as the reversal and bloodbath in the gold market over last two days. So far, gold has given back nearly 50% of the rally since January 28th (from US$1,780 up to US$1,975 and then down to US$1,878). The stochastic oscillator has lost its embedded status and momentum is bearish now. Should gold want to correct further towards the 61.8%-retracement ($1,854), it will likely also test the former resistance and breakout level around US$1,840 to US$1,845. Such a pullback towards US$1,840 to US$1,855 has certain probability, but would also offer a very interesting long entry again. Since the short-term timeframes like the 1- and 4-hour charts are getting oversold, gold alternatively might find support between US$1,870 and US$1,880 over the next few days already. To summarize, the daily chart is currently bearish and patience is needed. But Gold I swell supported and should find support either between US$1,840 to US$1,855 or US$1,870 and US$1,880. Afterwards it should start another leg up. Conclusion: Strong reversal should lead to another leg up Last week’s price action was certainly not for the faint of heart. A daily gain of over +4% is extremely rare in the gold market and was immediately undone upon COMEX opening. The sharp reversal does not look too good, but it does not yet mean the end of the rally. Expect some more downside or at least sideways consolidation. Usually, such a sharp rally does not collapse immediately. Hence, once the bulls have sorted themselves, we expect another rise above US$1,900 with a minimum price target of US$1,950. An overshot towards US$2,000 is still possible, but now a bit less likely. Once this next attack will have failed, we assume the start of a corrective wave down somewhere in spring, which could last well into early to midsummer. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Natural Gas, Oil, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Hitting $2.000? Metal Seems To Feel Good

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.02.2022 07:34
Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Seasonality favors another wave up

Seasonality favors another wave up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 03.02.2022 21:05
However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Gold – Recovery ahead

Gold – Recovery ahead

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.12.2021 13:26
https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.
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Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.07.2021 15:07
After the sharp drop in the first half of June and a tenacious sideways bottoming out, the gold price recovered to US$1,834 and thus reached its 200-day moving average (US$ 1,827) again. Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?ReviewSince gold prices reached a new all-time high at US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020, the entire precious metal sector has been in a multi-month correction. After eight months within this correction, gold fell back to an important double low at around US$1,676 in mid and late March. From there, prices recovered strongly in April and May. This wave up ended at US$1,916 (+14.3% in eight and a half weeks). Subsequently, gold prices came under strong selling pressure once again. A quick and steep sell off took prices down by US$142 within just one week between June 11th and 18th. But it was not until June 29th that the gold market finally found its turning point at US$1,750. From here, an initially tenacious but step by step more dynamic recovery towards US$1,834 began. Over the last few days, gold slipped back below US$1,800 only to recover quickly back to US$1,815.While central bankers, politicians and the media have been talking down the increasing fears of inflation (US consumer price index +5.4% in June), gold was only able to recover slowly from the severe pullback in June. Nevertheless, gold current trades about US$65 higher than at its low point a three weeks ago. Is this the end of the typical early summer correction in the precious metals sector or is there still some more downside to come?Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – The series of higher lows remains intactGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold has been moving higher within a clearly defined uptrend channel (dark green) since autumn 2018. The lower edge of this trend channel was tested in April 2019. The sharp pullback in June, on the other hand, has so far ended at US$1,750 and thus at the connecting line (light green) of the last three higher lows. At the same time, the upper edge of the former downward trend channel (red) was successfully tested for support.If the correction is now over, gold could already be on the way to its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,911). In any case, the stochastic has turned upwards again and thus provides a new buy signal.Overall, the weekly chart is not (yet) convincing, but the bullish tendencies prevail. To confirm the uptrend, a higher high is needed in the next step, which would require gold prices above US$1,916. Until then, however, the bulls still have a lot of work to do. If, on the other hand, the low at US$1,750 is being taken out, another retracement towards the lower edge of the uptrend channel at around US$1,670 to US$1,700 is very likely.Daily Chart – Around the falling 200-day moving averageGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, gold had good support at the cross of a downtrend and an uptrend line. Starting from that zone and the low at US$1,750, gold did already recover slightly above the still falling 200-day moving average (US$1,824). However, as the stochastic oscillator has already moved into the overbought zone and created a new sell signal. As well, the upper Bollinger Band (US$ 1,831) is blocking the bulls. Hence, a consolidation around the 200-day moving average would be a highly conceivable scenario.Bulls need to gain confidence againOnce the important 200-day moving average will have been sustainably recaptured and the bulls will have gained some confidence, the rally could continue and transform into the typical summer rally. The next target would then be the downward trend line from the all-time high via the high from the end of May. This line is currently sitting at around US$1,892 and is falling a few dollars a day.In summary, the daily chart is overbought in the short term. This means that the risk/reward ratio is not good right now. Ideally, however, the bulls will succeed in consolidating around the200-day moving average for at least a few days or even several weeks. This would provide the launching pad for the summer rally and higher gold prices. If, on the other hand, prices fall below US$1,790 again, the correction will likely continue. However, only below US$1,765 the promising setup for a midsummer rally would be destroyed.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Commitments of Traders for Gold as of July 19th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe commercial traders used the sharp pullback in June to cover their short positions again. This has eased the setup in the futures market somewhat. Nevertheless, with 221.028 contracts sold short as of last Tuesday, commercial traders still hold a relatively high short position on the gold future in a longer-term comparison.In summary, the current Commitment of Trades report (CoT) still does not provide a contrarian buy signal but calls for caution and patience.Sentiment for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Sentiment Optix for Gold as of July 19th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe Sentiment in the gold market fell to a low at the end of June and has since recovered quite a bit. However, this low did not represent an extreme, but rather showed only a slight increase in pessimism. The last “real” panic low in the gold market, on the other hand, was last seen in August 2018 with the sell-off at that time down to US$1,160. No one can predict when and if such a good contrarian opportunity will arise again in this bull market. It remains to be said that the correction in June did not lead to any extreme pessimism, and that confidence has already prevailed again.The sentiment thus tends to reinforce the doubts about a sustainable and imminent wave up.Seasonality for Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of July 14th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderA strong green light, on the other hand, currently comes from the seasonal component! Statistically, a major bull move in the gold market begins precisely in these days. This wave up usually lasts until the end of September or even mid-October. Although the price action of the last three weeks left the impression of an early summer doldrums, it is precisely this price behavior that fits the seasonal pattern.Hence, as soon as the gold market will start to move, the chances of a strong movement up are very favorable from a seasonal perspective.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of July 20th, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith prices of around US$29,500 for one bitcoin and US$1,815 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently around 16.25. This means that you currently must pay a bit more than 16 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Conversely, one ounce of gold currently costs 0.0615 bitcoin. Since the sharp sell off at the beginning of May, the bitcoin/gold ratio has mainly been running sideways. Another price slide does not seem out of the question given the continued weakness of bitcoin. However, the long-term uptrend in favor of bitcoin remains intact, while the stochastic on the ratio chart is heavily oversold.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro update and Crack-up-Boom:FED Balance sheet as of July 10th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzIn terms of monetary expansion, the global uptrend continued in recent weeks, of course. The balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve grew by US$19 billion to a total of US$ 8,097.8 billion and thus once again reached a new all-time high. The Fed’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to 37% of the GDP in the USA.ECB Balance sheet as of July 13th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB’s balance sheet rose by another EUR 18.7 billion last week to a new all-time high of EUR 7,926.6 billion. With this, the ECB also created new billions out of thin air, as it does every week, completely irrespective of which of its various goals (symmetric or average price target, pandemic emergency purchase program PEPP or quantitative easing) is currently supposedly being pursued.ECB Balance sheet in percentage of Eurozone GDP as of July 10th, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to over 75% of the GDP of the entire Eurozone, reflecting the ECB’s huge increase in power. The central bank has long since been unable to concentrate on its actual goal of price stability. Instead, it has taken on too many other tasks in the ECB Tower in Frankfurt. And these fiscal and monetary interventions are becoming increasingly vertical.Central banks are destroying the free marketDigital Euro as of Jul 14, 2021. Source: European Central BankHowever, printing money has never worked in the history of mankind. It will not work this time either. The question remains how long the music will continue to play for the dance on the volcano, and whether it will still be possible in time to finally and completely eliminate the free markets with a new digital EUR currency.ECB = Reichsbank 2.0 as of July 8th, 2021. ©Stefan SchmidtIn the end, Madame Lagarde, just like Rudolf Havenstein, is a prisoner of the absurd financial policy that has maneuvered itself into a dead end thanks to an unbacked paper money system. Havenstein, by the way, was also an inflationist and, until his death in November 1923, interpreted the Weimar hyperinflation as a product of the unfavorable balance of payments and did not get the idea that it had come about through the unbridled use of the printing press.Conclusion: Gold – Has the summer rally already begun?After the sharp pullback in June and an initially tenacious bottoming phase, gold recovered towards US$ 1,834 in the last two weeks. Even though this rally took quite some effort, gold makes the impression that there is more upside to come. The summer rally has probably already started. After a temporary consolidation around the 200-day moving average, August should bring significantly higher gold prices (US$1,865 and US$1,910). Short-term pullbacks towards and below US$1,800 are therefore buying opportunities.However, the performance of the mining stocks does not quite fit into this optimistic picture. The GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is currently trading well below its 200-day moving average. And heavyweights such as Newmont Corporation and Barrick Gold have not been able to get back on their feet at all since the sell-off in mid-June. Despite this weakness in gold mining stocks, the call for a summer rally in the sector will have to be canceled if gold moves back below US$1,765.Analysis initially written on July 15th and published on July 19th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on July 20th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|July 20th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin/gold-ratio, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold correction, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is also chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunity

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 28.06.2021 11:52
In view of the sharp price declines, crypto investors are asking themselves these days whether the sector is already being stuck in a new “crypto winter” since almost seven weeks or whether the brutal pullback may have been just a healthy shakeout after all, laying the foundation for significantly higher prices in the medium term. Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunity.ReviewSince the new all-time high at US$64,895 on April 14th, prices for Bitcoin have come under tremendous pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is “only” trading around US$33,000 USD and thus almost 50% lower than in early April! While Ethereum and numerous small altcoins were just getting ready for the grand finale, Bitcoin´s increasing fatigue was gradually becoming more and more obvious. Finally, the spectacular crypto bull run ended on May 12th with Ethereum´s parabolic new all-time high at US$4,375.Consequently, the entire sector topped, and a merciless wave of liquidation followed, taking pretty much everything down with it. Bitcoin only temporarily found a low at US$29,500, as this low was slightly undercut again on Monday 24th of June at US$29,250. Ethereum, on the other hand, did not find any support at all in recent weeks and kept falling towards a new low at US$1,711 this week. This low was well below the panic low of June 21st at US$1,896. In the last 4 days, however, crypto bulls are trying to get back on their feet posting a nice transitory bounce from extremely oversold levels (Bitcoin +17.91%, Ethereum +19.5%).You have been warnedSix weeks ago, we had warned of an imminent pullback in a timely and pretty aggressive manner. However, the fact that the crypto sector then took such a heavy beating just a few days later surprised us, too. The enormous volatility in May was mainly due to the preceding excessive speculation with leverage and borrowed money. For example, positions worth more than US$8 billion were closed on numerous exchanges within a few minutes on May 19th through forced liquidations. Also, in the last week falling prices have yet created another wave of liquidations.Overall, bitcoin has at least managed to trade sideways between roughly speaking US$29,000 and US$41,000 in the last five weeks. However, things have not calmed down (yet). The bottom line is that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has experienced turbulent ups and downs and a small gain of about 20%.Technical Analysis for Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin in USD, weekly Chart as of June 27th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the weekly chart, bitcoin temporarily slipped out of its major uptrend channel to the downside. However, with a strong bounce it managed to return to this trend channel. If the bulls can actually defend this steep trend channel, prices below US$30,000 would not be seen in the future. Due to the violent correction in recent weeks, the stochastic oscillator is clearly oversold and would now offer more than enough room for a significant recovery.Overall, bitcoin has been running sideways between US$29,000 and US$41,000 on its weekly chart for several weeks in a very volatile fashion. However, the up-trend is still intact. Hence in case of doubt, the bulls will now at least rehearse a larger recovery.Bitcoin in USD, daily Chart as of June 27th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the daily chart, bitcoin failed to regain the lost exponential 200-day moving average (US$40,200) in recent weeks. As the last attempt failed on June 15th, the bears directly counterattacked. Due to this violent price slide in the order of US$11,000 within only eight days and the resulting extreme oversoldness, the balance of power may now have shifted again in favor of the bulls. The stochastic oscillator for example is not oversold but showing diverging higher lows. Nevertheless, the long wick of Tuesday's daily candle suggests a trend reversal.In summary, the daily chart is still in the short-term downtrend and thus actually bearish. However, the rapid recovery back to US$35,500 within three days allows us to rate the daily chart as slightly bullish. With the Fibonacci retracements, two realistic recovery targets between US$40,000 and US$42,000 as well as between US$49,000 and US$51,000 can be defined. Whether the strength of the bulls will be sufficient towards the second target, however, cannot be said at the moment. If Bitcoin drops below US$30,000 once again, we must assume that lower lows are still to come.Sentiment Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunityBitcoin Optix as of June 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe short-term sentiment data for the Bitcoin reached the panic zone again.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of June 27th, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed IndexAlternative.me’s much more complex and rather long-term sentiment model has been reporting extreme levels of fear in the crypto sector for weeks now. At the start of the week, the model recorded rarely seen lows around 10. Currently its sitting at 22. The panic in the sector might thus have reached an absolute extreme and short-term top.Crypto Fear & Greed Index long-term as of June 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the big picture, the mood is beaten down and depressive.Overall, the quantitative sentiment analysis thus provides clear contrarian buy signals. Of course, the mood can still fall further, but a contrarian entry opportunity looks just exactly like this!Seasonality Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunityBitcoin Seasonality. Source: SeasonaxStatistically, the typical sideways phase for bitcoin during spring ends at the beginning of May. This is often followed by a sharp rally into June and then a sell-off towards October. However, this year bitcoin only reached an important high on April 14th and has been sharply correcting since then. Obviously, the seasonal pattern doesn’t really match up with the price action so far this year.In conclusion, seasonality is basically changing from neutral to red these days. However, the course of the year so far has not been in line with the seasonal pattern.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of June 27th, 2021.Source: TradingviewAt prices of approx. 33,000 USD for a Bitcoin and 1,780 USD for a fine ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio is currently trading at around 18.5. This means you currently have to pay slightly more than 18 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. Put the other way, one troy ounce of gold currently costs about 0.053 bitcoin. Compared to the highs in March and April, bitcoin had initially lost over 56% against gold. However, in recent weeks, the Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio has been consolidating sideways. Looking at the heavily oversold stochastic, a recovery in favor of bitcoin is actually more likely on the short- to medium time horizon. The difficulty, however, is that any movement in bitcoin has a much stronger impact than the other way around due to the larger numbers.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, a maximum of 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold and bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense, you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro Outlook and Crack-Up-Boom UpdateECB Balance sheet as of June 22nd, 2021. Source Holger ZschaepitzThe ECB expanded its balance sheet again by EUR 35.6 billion, so that total assets once again jumped to a new all-time high of EUR 7,736.5 billion last week. The ECB’s balance sheet total is now equivalent to 77.7% of the eurozone GDP.However, after the FED on the other side of the Atlantic mentioned 10 days ago that they plan to raise interest rates in two years, there was a significant pullback, especially in the commodity and precious metals markets due to a stronger U.S. Dollar. The crypto markets also sold off significantly again as a result.Actually, it is a bad joke that financial markets are trembling before a possible US interest rate hike in 2023. However, the global financial drama is now completely dependent on the central banks. They use their unprecedented power to play their mass psychological games. So far, this has always worked out well somehow in the past decades. The fact that the required rescue sums have steadily increased over the past 23 years since the first hard intervention in 1998 (long-term capital management crisis) receives only a marginal note in the mainstream media. Even though, it is no longer millions and billions that are needed for rescue, but trillions and soon probably even quadrillions. A truly free financial market, on the other hand, would have long since buried numerous unprofitable business models and probably driven interest rates worldwide to double-digit heights. But this must not and cannot be allowed to happen under any circumstances, as the drop height has become too high and public order could quickly be jeopardized during the overdue cleanup. Therefore, politicians and central bankers simply carry on doing what they are doing. As long as it just somehow works….FED Balance sheet & US Home Prices as of June 23rd, 2021. Source: Holger ZschaepitzThe result is a rampant crack-up-boom in which everything becomes more expensive due to the expansion of the money supply. For example, U.S. house prices have been rising for years in tandem with the expansion of the U.S. money supply. Recently, a new all-time high was reached in tandem.Commodities/Equities-Ratio as of June 21st, 2021. Source: Incrementum AG 2021 and Crescant CapitalIn the big picture, the current pullback in commodities, precious metals and cryptocurrencies should therefore only represent a small dent. Soon, the Fed will have to row back its interest rate statements. Otherwise, the real estate market in the US will quickly get cold feet. A departure from the constant expansion of the currency supply had not been announced anyway. Since global economic growth is on extremely shaky ground and was only artificially generated with the help of global central bank acrobatics, there is no escape from the devaluation policy. All central banks are competing with each other, forcing millions of investors in all countries of the world to flee into real assets (even outside the fiat system). This flight movement will only accelerate. In the short term, however, one is quite well advised to act cautiously and wait and see, because there are still no clear signs of an end to the temporary “risk-off mode”.Conclusion: Bitcoin – First contrarian buy opportunityThe negative coverage of Bitcoin and Ethereum reached an absurd peak at the start of the week. Of course, the pullback in recent weeks has been hard and deep. But then, that has always been the case in the highly volatile crypto sector. Most weak hands may have been thrown off initially during the 56% setback. The extremely high level of panic (as seen in the sentiment data) now clearly point to a fast approaching turning point.Presumably, the recovery might has already started on Monday afternoon with the low at US$29,250. Possible recovery targets in the coming months are initially sitting around US$40,000 to US$42,000 and US$49,000 to US$51,000.Bitcoin-Future in USD, weekly chart as of June 25th, 2021. Source: TradingviewDepending on how the bitcoin will behave at these marks, it will be easier to assess whether the correction is already over or whether there will have to be another downward wave. In the worst case, there is still an open gap in the bitcoin future between US$24,000 and US$26,500. However, as the situation currently stands, the open gap in the Bitcoin Future on the upside in the range of US$46,650 to US$49,100 might be closed first.Analysis sponsored and initially published on June 23rd, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on June 27th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|June 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Ethereum, Ethereum correction, Gold, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 07.06.2021 18:52
Gold and silver prices experienced quite a roller coaster ride over the last few days. Given the fast recovery on Friday we see two potential scenarios for the precious metal markets to unfold. Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?ReviewThe double low at US$1,676 in mid-March and at US$1,678 at the end of March marked the end of the eight-month correction in the gold market. In the past two months, gold was able to recover from this double low by a whopping US$240. Our conservative recovery targets of US$1,785 and US$1,855 were quickly achieved. Furthermore, gold continued its recovery until US$1,916 so far.Over the last two weeks however, the bulls (despite various attempts) failed to recapture the psychological US$1,900 level. Not surprisingly, a fast pullback brought prices back to US$1,856 on Friday early morning in the Asian markets. From here, gold came roaring back to US$1,895 as the latest non-farm payroll US job data missed expectations later during that day.The silver price, on the other hand, was able to hold up somewhat better than the gold price during the entire correction since last august. However, once the attack on the resistance zone around US$30 failed at the beginning of February, silver prices got beaten down together with the falling gold price. Accordingly, Silver reached its low on March 31 at US$23.78. But in contrast to gold, this level thus marked a higher low within the correction that began on August 7th. Currently, silver is trading just below US$28 keeping eye contact with the crucial hard resistance zone around US$30.Overall, thanks to the significant recovery over the last two months, the picture for the precious metals sector has improved significantly. The healthy pullback has been completed. The bull-market is intact. The question now remains how much time gold and silver will need to break out to new all-time highs and what type of pullback(s) we are going to see during the run up to new all-time highs.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarWeekly Chart – Clear Breakout from the Downtrend ChannelGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of June 6th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart, gold prices had managed to easily jump above the downtrend line of the previous nine and a half months in mid of May. Thus, the correction, which began with the new all-time high at US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020, has now most likely ended. Ultimately, this healthy correction seems to have unfolded in a bullish flag pattern.At the same time, gold has been reaching the midline of the three-year uptrend channel (currently around US$1,920). In addition, the 61.8% retracement of the correction at US$1,923 has been missed so far. Thus, the zone between US$1,920 and US$1,925 remains a strong hurdle. If the bulls would manage to break through US$1,925 a quick rally towards the next resistance zone around US$1,950 to 1,960 is extremely likely. This zone around US$1,960 however is a concrete resistance as gold had failed miserably in early November and early January at this level.Overall, the weekly chart is bullish with a slightly overbought stochastic. But there aren't any signals pointing to a pullback or a trend change here. In fact, the bullish momentum makes the continuation of the rally towards US$1,960 quite likely. If on the other hand the pullback from last week gains strength, expect a target zone of US$1,820 to US$1,845. Here, a very good buying opportunity would probably arise shortly before the seasonally best time of the year.Daily Chart – Stochastic With A Fresh Sell SignalGold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of June 6th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart gold had to weather a quick pullback last Thursday and early Friday morning. This pullback led prices back to the upper edge of the former downtrend channel, hence testing the resting breakout. So far, bulls managed to come back immediately, and the daily cycle might have ended in an extremely quick fashion with a low Friday morning in Asia.In the best case, the bulls still have enough fuel to extend the recovery towards the 61.8% retracement at US$1,923 and especially towards the hard resistance around US$1,960. Such an advance would likely free some more momentum (especially in silver) and could even create an escalation until midsummer. An escalation would mean that gold would test the US$2,000 to US$2,025 range before any more significant pullback can unfold.A more defensive perspective on the other hand would be, that a healthy but larger pullback has already started last Wednesday. Gold would likely come under some more selling pressure in this scenario. This could mean a continued sell-off down to the 200-day moving average (US$1,843) and the 38,2%-retracement at US$1,825 within June and July.In both cases gold will test its 200-day moving average at some point. In the “escalation” scenario it would take quite some more time and gold would first explode towards around US$2,000 before a larger pullback would then wipe out all the euphoria later in autumn again. Alternatively, we will get the pullback towards the upper edge of the former downtrend now and gold uses this little correction as a launch-pad for higher prices later in the summer. Subsequently, an attack on the US$2,000 level is expected sooner or later this summer (July to September). Overall, the picture in the precious metals sector has certainly improved considerably thanks to the strong recovery over the last two months. As well, it needs to be noted that the real momentum is going to be in silver market, once the resistance at US$30 is has been overcome.Commitments of Traders for Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Commitments of Traders for Gold as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderDue to the gold price recovery over the last two months, the Commitment of Trades Report (CoT) has deteriorated again. The cumulative net short position stood at 248,175 contracts as of last Tuesday. In the long-term comparison, this set-up however, is rather high and continues to urge caution and patience. Hence, the CoT-report delivers a sell signal.Sentiment for Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Sentiment Optix for Gold as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderSentiment numbers for gold are showing a rather neutral rating at the moment. So far, the recovery has not created any significant optimism let alone extreme euphoria. It is however extremely likely that the ongoing recovery will at least see some form of exaggerated optimism before it rolls over or pauses. Thus, sentiment does not stand in the way of a continuation of the rally.Seasonality for Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SeasonaxOver the last 53-years a strong seasonal pattern has evolved for the gold market. Accordingly, gold would find its typical early summer low somewhere in June or July. Subsequently, a strong advance would follow in the next step pushing gold prices to a seasonal top around late September or early October.In the current situation this could mean a continuation of the pullback that started last Wednesday over the next few weeks. From a projected low around US$1,820 to US$1,840 gold would then be ready to strongly rally during midsummer.Seasonality for Gold over the last 5-years as of June 6th, 2021. Source: SeasonaxHowever, reducing gold´s historical movements to the last five years shows quite a different seasonal cycle! Hence, in the current bull market since 2016 gold tends to show strength up until mid to end of August before rolling over significantly in September. The weakness in June and July has not been evident over the last five years.Given this statistical evidence gold has quite a high probability of simply continuing its rally towards US$1,960 and US$2,000 to US$2,025 over the next two to three months! Only after such a rally a large pullback would be likely.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of June 6th, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith prices of approx. US$36,000 for one Bitcoin and US$1,890 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently sitting at around 19. That means you now have to pay only 19 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. Put the other way around, an ounce of gold currently only costs 0.052 Bitcoin. Thus, Bitcoin has lost around 45% against gold to where it traded in March and April.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro update and Crack-up-Boom:FED Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, June 3rd, 2021.As in almost every other week, the Fed balance sheet has hit a fresh all-time high. Fed chairman Jerome Powell keeps the printing press rumbling despite rising inflation. The total assets expanded by 0.4% to a new record of US$7.94 trillion. The Fed’s balance sheet now equals 36% of the GDP for the U.S..ECB Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, June 5th, 2021.Of course Madame Lagarde is pushing even harder and the ECB balance sheet is now on course to 80% of Eurozone’s GDP. This rise to the moon looks more and more parabolic as the total assets rose by another 14.5 billion EUR on QE . You can be sure that none of these irresponsible central bankers will have the guts to return to a more sustainable monetary policy.World total stock market cap. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, June 6th, 2021.One of the most obvious consequences is asset price inflation of course. While the worldwide economic has been rather muted the market cap of all stock markets combined hit a new all time driven by the overflowing liquidity provided by nearly all central banks on this planet.But while further rising equity portfolios are certainly to be welcomed by most investors, the increased cost of living is becoming a serious problem for many people. This is true especially since the vast majority of people in any society is always struggling to meet ends needs. They simply don´t own anything that they could invest. Hence the rising tension within most western societies. Those who at least understand what’s going on are forced to become speculators and often use credit and margin to somehow profit from the asset price inflation. However, with credit and margin but without experience they only increase the imbalances in the system.Inflation pops © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 31st, 2021.Overall, the crack-up-boom is up and running and accelerating. Like a dance on the volcano. And Central bankers are doing everything to outpace any deflationary forces by simply printing more and more. Yet, the worldwide race to the bottom has no exit but is a dead end.Conclusion: Gold – Healthy Pullback or Escalation Until Midsummer?Never before in the last 50 years it was more important to own some physical gold and silver. Independently of any price appreciation or any potential speculative gains. Simply as a protection against the loss of purchasing power and many other looming worst case scenarios.As well from a technical point of view it is vital to now own a full physical position in precious metals. The 8-month pullback from the new all-time high is done and the bulls are back in the driving seat. Once gold sustainably takes out its all-time high at US$2,075 expect an acceleration and a rather quick rally towards approx. US$2,500 and probably higher. By then you will only run behind a train that has left the station. Physical supply is already tight, and premiums are often absurdly high.Technically speaking, gold is in a recovery since March 31st which still has room to continue towards US$1,960 and approx. US$2,025. Judging from the past, gold bulls should have enough strength to push prices towards those two numbers over the coming two to four months. Any pullback or breather on the way higher should be welcomed as one of the last chances to buy gold below US$2,000 and silver below US$30.Hence, the “healthy pullback” scenario over the coming weeks might be perfect for anybody who still needs to get positioned. However, in a bull market surprises are usually happening to the upside and a direct escalation until midsummer would leave many marveling at the wayside.To conclude, buy any dip.Source: www.celticgold.euFeel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is also chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
New York Climate Week: A Call for Urgent and Collective Climate Action

Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 13.05.2021 12:41
It’s been a massive rally over the last 15 months in the crypto sector since bitcoin bottom at US$3,800 on March 13th, 2020. reaching price at around US$65,000 bitcoin saw a price explosion of more than 1,600%! Now however the sector seems ripe for some form of a healthy pullback and a breather. Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term!ReviewBitcoin year to date, Daily Chart as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewSince the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 100%. Thus, the outperformance of Bitcoin compared to almost all other asset classes continued mercilessly. It seems as if bitcoin, or rather the crypto sector, wants to suck up everything like a black hole.Bitcoin´s waning momentum is a warning signalHowever, the Bitcoin markets have also been witnessing an increasingly waning momentum since late February. In particular, the pace of the rise had slowed down more and more since prices pushed above US$60,000 in March for the first time. Although another new all-time high was reached on April 14th at around US$65,000, the bulls are showing more and more signs of fatigue after the spectacular rally. Interestingly enough, this last new all-time high coincided exactly with the stock market debut of Coinbase.Only a few days later, a significant price slide down to just under US$50,000 happened, which was caused by a huge wave of liquidations. According to data provider Bybt, traders lost a total of more than US$10.1 billion that Sunday through liquidations forced by crypto exchanges. More than 90% of the funds liquidated that day came from bullish bets on Bitcoin or other digital currencies. In this regard, the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance was at the center of the earthquake with liquidation worth nearly US$5 billion. As the price of bitcoin fell, many of these bets were automatically liquidated, putting further pressure on the price and leading to a vicious cycle of further liquidations. Many (especially inexperienced) crypto traders were wiped out without warning.Year to date gains sorted by market-cap. Source Messari, May 10th 2021.After a quick recovery back to US$56,000, bitcoin continued its correction and fell back to US$47,000 by April 25. Since then, it has managed a remarkable recovery, as the bitcoin bulls are trying hard to restart the uptrend. So far, this recovery has at least reached a high of US$59,600. Nevertheless, the price development of bitcoin remains rather tough until recently, while numerous altcoins and so called “shitcoins” experienced incredible price explosions in recent weeks.The exciting question now is whether the current recovery remains just a countermove within a larger correction or whether the turnaround has already been seen and Bitcoin is therefore on the way to new all-time highs?Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the weekly chart, bitcoin has been stuck at the broad resistance zone between US$58,000 and US$65,000 for the past two and a half months. At the same time, the bulls continue trying to break out of the uptrend channel which is in place since 14 months. However, the recent pullback has so far only begun to clear the overbought situation, if at all. A somewhat larger pullback or simply the continuation of the consolidation would certainly do the market good. On the downside, the support zone between US$41,000 and US$45,000 remains the predestined support zone in case the bears should actually show some more penetration. If, on the other hand, price rise above approx. US$61,000, the chances for a direct continuation to new all-time highs increases quite a lot.Weekly Chart with a fresh sell signalOverall, the big picture remains bullish and higher bitcoin prices remain very likely in the medium to longer term. However, since reaching US$ 58,000 for the first time at the end of February, bitcoin has been increasingly weakening in recent weeks. Another healthy pullback towards the support zone of US$41,000 to US$45,000 USD could recharge the bull´s batteries. With fresh powers a breakout to new all-time highs in the summer is likely. Obviously, a good buying opportunity cannot be derived from the weekly chart at the moment. Rather, the stochastic sell signal calls for patience and caution.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, bitcoin slipped out of a bearish wedge on April 14th and has been attempting a countermovement since the low at just under US$47,000. However, this recovery is somewhat tenacious and currently hangs on the upper edge of the uptrend channel. Given the overbought stochastic and the relatively large distance to the exponential 200-day moving average (US$41,694), another pullback has an increased probability. The liquidation wave on April 18th clearly showed how quickly the whole thing can slide, given the exuberant speculation with derivatives and leverage.Of course, the bulls (and thus rising prices) have always a clear advantage in a bull market. Also, in view of the huge monetary expansions, speculation on the short side is not recommended. One is better advised with regular partial profit-taking (without selling one’s core long positions completely) as well as a solid liquidity reserve, with which one can take advantage of the opportunities that arise in the event of more significant pullbacks. The blind “buy & hold” or “hodl” strategy has also proven its strengths and can rightfully be maintained given the bullish medium to longer-term outlook.Daily Chart now on a sell signalSummarizing the daily chart, bitcoin is so far “only” in a countermovement within the pullback that began on April 14th. Only with a breakout above approx. US$61,000 the bulls would clearly be gaining the upper hand again. In this case, a rally towards approx. US$69,000 USD becomes very possible. On the downside, however, bitcoin prices below US$53,000 would signal that the bears have successfully fended off the breakout above the upper edge of the uptrend channel in the short term. The next step would then be a continuation of the correction and thus lower prices in the direction of the support zone around US$44,000 as well as the rising exponential 200-day moving average.Sentiment Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin Optix as of May 9th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe rather short-term “Bitcoin Optix” currently reports a balanced sentiment. What is striking is the fact that the last sentiment highs since February have always been weaker. I.e. the sentiment momentum is falling. At the same time, the temporary panic on April 25th brought an exaggeration to the downside (panic low = green circle), with which the ongoing recovery can be explained.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex and rather long-term “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” currently indicates a slightly exaggerated optimism or “increased greed”.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the very long-term comparison, sentiment is somewhat overly optimistic.Overall, quantitative sentiment analysis is increasingly sending warning signals. In particular, the decreasing momentum of the sentiment peaks with simultaneously exploding altcoin prices must be taken seriously. Therefore, a contrarian entry opportunity is definitely not present in the crypto space. Instead, one is well advised to wait patiently for the next wave of panic or liquidation.Seasonality Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxStatistically, the sideways spring phase for bitcoin ends at the beginning of May. This has often been followed by a sharp rally into June. However, this year bitcoin only reached an important high on April 14th and has been consolidating since then. Hence, the seasonal pattern doesn’t really match up with this year’s price action so far.In conclusion, the seasonality is basically changing from neutral to green these days. However, the course of the year has not been in line with the seasonal pattern. A continuation of the consolidation therefore seems more likely.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewAt prices of US$58,075 for one bitcoin and US$1,835 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold-ratio is currently trading at around 31.7. This means that you currently have to pay almost 32 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Put the other way around, one troy ounce of gold currently costs about 0.03 bitcoin. Thus, bitcoin has been running sideways against gold at a high level for a good month and a half.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro Outlook and Crack-Up-BoomFED Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 7th 2021.The U.S. Federal Reserve’s total assets continued to rise in recent weeks, reaching a new all-time high of USD 7,810 billion. The biggest increase was in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, which rose by USD 25.66 billion to a total of USD 5,040 billion.ECB Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 4th 2021.The ECB balance sheet also reached a new all-time high of EUR 7,568 billion. Driven by ultra-lax monetary policy (quantitative easing), total assets rose by a further EUR 9.7 billion. The ECB balance sheet is now equivalent to 76.2% of euro area GDP.Bloomberg Commodity Index. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Due to these massive monetary expansions, the consequences of this irresponsible central bank policy are now slowly but surely becoming more and more apparent. For example, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has more than doubled since March 2020 and most recently rose to its highest level since 2011. Numerous commodities are reaching new highs, fueling inflation fears. The loss of confidence in fiat currencies typical of the crack-up boom is taking hold. This mass psychological phenomenon is gradually building up and may already be unstoppable. The accelerating crack-up boom is the ideal environment for precious metals, commodities and cryptocurrencies.Mentions of Inflation. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Even Bank of America (BofA) recently acknowledged in a commentary that “inflation is here.” In doing so, they referenced the exploded number of mentions of “inflation.”Conclusion: Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termEthereum new all-time highs © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.One of the main beneficiaries of the increasing flight out of the fiat systems in recent months has been cryptocurrencies. First and foremost, it was bitcoin which led the way up for the entire sector. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, has risen to a new all-time high well above $4,300. Ethereum dominance reached a new record of 19%. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has thus gained nearly 500%.Bitcoin Dominance © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.The market capitalization of the entire crypto sector did reach more than US$2.5 trillion. Mainly due to the price explosion in Ethereum and Altcoins during recent weeks, Bitcoin dominance had been fading down to below 44%.Ethereum Market Capitalization © Messari via Twitter @RyanWatkins_, May 10, 2021.With a Bitcoin dominance of below 40%, however, the air has always been very thin for altcoins in the past, and sharp pullbacks followed in 2017 and 2018. The speculative madness became particularly dramatic in the case of the fun and meme coin Dogecoin. This essentially worthless coin has been rising from US$0.005 to US$0.672 in just a few months, making it worth almost as much as the Daimler Group. Once again, the markets are thus providing an example of the extent to which the vast quantities of fiat currencies created out of thin air are distorting everything and fueling wild speculation.Be careful, be patient!Overall, it is imperative to advise caution in the current environment. While a long-term top in bitcoin is not yet in sight, a significant correction or sharp pullback should not come as a surprise and would be good for the overheated sector. The “worst case” envisages a pullback in the direction of around US$44,000. In this area, bitcoin would already be a buying opportunity again. In this scenario, the altcoins would temporarily but very likely take a severe beating. Subsequently, bitcoin could take the lead again and march on towards US$100,000 once this pullback is done. Alternatively, the tenacious sideways consolidation continues until bitcoin prices above US$61,000 confirm the continuation of the rally to new all-time highs.Analysis sponsored and initially published on May 10th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on May 13th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|May 13th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin crashing, Bitcoin dominance, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum correction, Gold, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
European Central Bank's Potential Minimum Reserve Increase Sparks Concerns

Gold – Final Sell-Off

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.02.2021 14:37
Precious metal and crypto analysis exclusively for Celtic Gold on 27.02.2021Gold has been in a long and tenacious correction for nearly seven months already. On Friday the gold-market shocked traders and investors with yet another bloodbath similar to the one seen end of November last year. However, this capitulation probably means: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!ReviewThe price for one troy ounce of gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020 and has been in a tough correction since then. After a first major interim low on November 30th at around US$1,764, gold posted a rapid yet deceptive recovery up to US$1.959. Since that high point on January 6th, the bears have taken back control.Obviously, the two sharp sell-offs on January 6th and January 8th had demoralized the bulls in such a strong way that they have not been able to get back on their feet since then. And although the bullish forces were still strong enough to create a volatile sideways period in January, since early February the bears were able to slowly but surely push prices lower.Just yesterday day gold finally broke below its support zone around US$1,760 to 1,770, unleashing another wave of severe selling into the weekly close. Now after seven month of correction, spot gold prices have reached a new low at US$1,717.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 18th 2021On the other hand, the relative strength of silver remains strikingly positive. In this highly difficult market environment for precious metals, silver was able to trade sideways to up since the start of the new year. The same can be said of platinum prices.Overall, the turnaround in the precious metals sector has not yet taken place but seems to be extremely close. Since the nerves of market participants were significantly tested either with a tough and tenacious volatile sideways stretch torture or with sharp price drops like yesterday, most weak hands should have been discouraged and shaken off by now. At the same time, however, the sector has become pretty oversold and finally shows encouraging signs of being a great contrarian opportunity again.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart gold lost the support of the middle trend line with the large uptrend channel in January. With a weekly close at US$1,734 the bears are clearly in control. However, Friday lows around US$1,725 hit pretty much exactly the long standing 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the whole wave up from US$1,160 to US$2,075. Hence, gold is meeting strong support right here around US$1,715 to US$1,730. Looking at the oversold weekly stochastic oscillator the chances for a bounce and an important turning point are pretty high. Hence, the end of this seven-month correction could be very near.However, only a clear breakout above the downtrend channel in red would confirm the end of this multi-month correction. Obviously, the bulls have a lot of work to do to just push prices back above US$1,850. If the Fibonacci retracement around US$1,725 cannot stopp the current wave of selling, then expect further downside towards the upper edge of the original rather flat uptrend channel in blue at around US$1,660. The ongoing final sell-off can easily extend a few more days but does not have to.In total, the weekly chart is still clearly in a confirmed downtrend. Prices have reached strong support at around US$1,725 and at least a good bounce is extremely likely from here. However, given the oversold setup including the sell-off on Friday there are good chances that the correction in gold is about to end in the coming week and that a new uptrend will emerge.Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of February 27th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the price of gold has been sliding into a final phase of capitulation since losing contact with its 200-MA (US$1,858). Not only predominating red daily candles but also lots of downtrend-lines and resistance zones are immersing this chart into a sea of red. That itself should awake the contrarian in any trader and investor. However, it is certainly not (yet) the time to play the bullish hero here as catching a falling knife is always a highly tricky art. But at least, the daily stochastic oscillator is about to reach oversold levels. Momentum remains bearish for now of course.Overall, the daily chart is bearish. Last weeks sell-off however might be overdone and has to be seen in conjunction with the physical deliveries for February futures at the Comex. However, a final low and a trend change can only be confirmed once gold has recaptured its 200-MA. This line is currently far away, and it will likely take weeks until gold can meet this moving average again. Further downside can not be excluded but it should be rather shallow.Commitments of Traders for Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Commitments of Traders for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: CoT Price ChartsSince the beginning of the year, commercial traders have reduced their cumulative net short position in the gold futures market by more than 21% while gold prices corrected from US$1,965 down to US$1,770.Commitments of Traders for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the long-term comparison, however, the current net short position is still extremely high and does actually signal a further need for correction. However, this situation has been ongoing since mid of 2019. Since then, commercial traders have not been able to push gold prices significantly lower to cover their massive short positions.We can assume that since the emergence of the “repro crisis” in the USA in late summer 2019, the massive manipulation via non-physical paper ounces no longer works as it did in the previous 40 years. The supply and demand shock caused by the Corona crisis in March 2020 has certainly exacerbated this situation. In this respect, COMEX has lost its mid- to long-term weight and influence on pricing. This doesn’t mean however, that short-term sell-offs like yesterday won’t happen anymore.Nevertheless, the CoT report on its own continues to deliver a clear sell signal, similar to the last one and a half years already.Sentiment: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Sentiment Optix for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: Sentiment traderThe weak price performance in recent weeks has caused an increasingly pessimistic mood among participants in the gold market. The Optix sentiment indicator for gold is now below its lows from November 30th. In a bull market, however, these rather pessimistic readings are rare and usually short-lived. In this respect, even the currently not extreme negative sentiment could well be sufficient for a sustainable ground and turnaround.Overall, the current sentiment analysis signals an increasingly optimistic opportunity for contrarian investors. The chances for a final low after seven months of correction are relatively good in the short term already.Seasonality: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Seasonality for Gold as of February 22nd, 2021. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal point of view, the development in the gold market in recent weeks is in stark contrast to the pattern established over the last 52 years. Thus, a strong start to the year could have been expected well into February. Instead, gold fell sharply from US$ 1.959 down to US$1.717 so far.If one pushes the statistically proven seasonal high point from the end of February to the beginning of January, a grinding sideways to lower phase including interim recoveries as well as recurring pullbacks is still to be expected until April. The beginning of the next sustainable uptrend could therefore theoretically be estimated approximately starting in May. Of course, these are all just abstract seasonal mind games.In any case, statistically speaking, the seasonality for gold in spring is not very supportive for about four months. In this respect, the seasonal component continues to call for patience. At the latest in early summer however, gold should be able to trend higher again. The best seasonal phase typically starts at the beginning of July and lasts until the beginning of October.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of February 22nd, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith prices of US$47,500 for one Bitcoin and US$1,734 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently sitting at 27.39. That means you have to pay more than 27 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. In other words, an ounce of gold currently only costs 0.036 Bitcoin. Bitcoin has thus mercilessly outperformed gold in the past few months. We had repeatedly warned against this development since early summer 2020!© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 17th, 2021Generally, you should be invested in both: precious metals and bitcoin. Buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in these two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals (preferably physically), while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin, one should hold at least 1% to 5%. Paul Tudor Jones holds a little less than 2% of his assets in Bitcoin. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate higher percentages to Bitcoin and maybe other Altcoins on an individual basis. For the average investor, who usually is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is already a lot!“Opposites complement. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin (BTC-USD) you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven in the 21st century. You want to own both!”– Florian GrummesMacro update and conclusion: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 19th, 2021.In the big picture, the “confetti party” continues. As usual, the Fed’s balance sheet total rose to a new all-time high of US$7,557 billion. The increase in assets again concentrated almost entirely in the securities holdings. The Fed balance sheet total now corresponds to 35% of the US GDP.© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 17th, 2021In the eurozone, the unprecedented currency creation continues as well. Here, the ECB’s balance sheet climbed to 7,079 billion EUR reaching a new all-time high. The ECB balance sheet now represents 71% of the euro-zone GDP.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 12th, 2021.But the Chinese are doing it the most blatantly. Here, the money supply has increased by US$5.4 trillion since March 2020!© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 15th 2021.As repeatedly written at this point, the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheets has far-reaching consequences. The GSCI raw materials index has risen significantly in the past 11 months. Accordingly, inflation expectations are also rising more and more and still have a lot to catch up.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 20th 2021.Wood prices in the USA provide a good example of the rapidly rising commodity prices. Lumber saw the fastest increase since 1974 and has risen by more than 35% since the beginning of the year. During the same period, gasoline increased by 20%, natural gas by 26%, agricultural raw materials are around 25% more expensive and base metals jumped over 20% higher! Hence, inflation is coming, and central bankers won’t be able to stop it.While silver and platinum have been anticipating this “trend” for weeks and have been holding up much better than gold, the precious metal sector is still in its correction phase. This correction began after a steep two-year rally in last August and can be classified as perfectly normal and healthy until now.© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 18th, 2021.After seven months and a price drop of nearly US$360, the worst for gold is likely over. In view of the recent slight increase in real US yields (currently -0.92%) the pullback over the last few weeks can be justified. Yet, it is important to focus on the bigger picture. This is where the international devaluation race to the bottom continues unabated and will sooner or later lead to significantly higher gold prices too.Technically, Friday’s sell off might have marked the final low for this ongoing correction. As well, the slide could continue for a few more days, but the remaining risk to the downside seems rather shallow. In the worst-case Gold might drop to US$1,650 to US$1,680.To conclude, this means for Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here! The Bottom may arrive soon within the next week or has already been seen on Friday.Source: www.celticgold.euFeel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin/gold-ratio, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold correction, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, Silver, The bottom is in|0 CommentsFlorian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.euAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.
Bitcoin - Consolidation brings new opportunities

Bitcoin - Consolidation brings new opportunities

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 02.02.2021 08:33
ReviewSource: Messari December 31st, 2020After a massive rally from the beginning of October, Bitcoin almost reached prices around US$20,000 on December 1st. Despite a heavily overbought situation, the bulls only needed a two-week breather. The successful breakout immediately caused a further acceleration, so that bitcoin prices continued to explode until January 8th 2021 and were able to rise to almost US$42,000. Bitcoin had thus increased more than tenfold in less than 10 months since the Corona crash! Looking at 2020 as a whole, Bitcoin pretty much outperformed everything, gaining 318%.Source: Dan Held on TwitterOver the last three weeks, however, there was, not surprisingly, a wave of profit-taking hitting the bitcoin market. Hence, prices retraced all the way back down toward just under US$29,000. This rapid correction represented a drop of 31% in just 14 days. In the big picture, however, this is not unusual. Instead, bitcoin has seen countless corrective price moves like this over the past 10 years. In the last bull market between autumn 2015 and December 2017, there were a total of six sharp pullbacks, all of which amounted to sell offs between 29% and 38%.Source: Dan Tapiero on TwitterIn the bigger picture however, volatility is still relatively low. Rather, the relative volatility indicates that the range of fluctuation is only just slowly beginning to rise again and should spike towards the later stages during the course of this current bull market.Overall, bitcoin has been in a new bull market since the Corona Crash in March 2020 and is likely to head for much higher price regions in the coming 10 to 24 months. Daily fluctuations of US$10,000 and more will then become increasingly common.Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith the breakout above the all-time high around US$20,000 on December 16th, 2020, the Bitcoin rally that had been underway since March 2020 already accelerated once again significantly. Although the market was already heavily overbought on all timeframes, bitcoin doubled within the following four weeks and reached a new all-time high at around US$42,000 on January 8th, 2021. After such a price explosion, it takes time to digest this strong rise. The pullback towards and slightly below US$29,000 is therefore perfectly normal and healthy.From the perspective of the weekly chart, however, there are no clear signs for an end of that correction yet. Looking at the “old” support zones and the overbought stochastic oscillator, a return to the breakout level around US$20,000 would be quite conceivable. Beyond that, there are two long-term upward trend lines that could also act as possible targets on the downside.Using the classic Fibonacci retracements from the low at US$3,850 to the recent high at US$42,000, the 38.2% retracement at US$27,425 would be the minimum correction target. If bitcoin can continue to hold above this retracement, this would be an extremely bullish sign of strength. A first retest of the recent lows at US$29,000 was also successful and thus far created a nice double low which might already have marked the turning point. However, prices below those lows would confirm a larger and deeper type of correction. Prices around US$27,500 and lower towards US$20,000 to US$22,000 would then become increasingly likely.However, since bitcoin is undoubtedly in an established bull market and in an overarching uptrend, the surprises are generally happening to the upside. Therefore, the only thing to note here is that new prices above US$40,000 would probably signal a continuation of the steep rally. In this case, prices around the next psychological level at US$50,000 should follow quickly.To summarize the weekly chart remains bullish above US$20,000. At the same time, there are still no signals for an end to the recently started pullback. In view of the relatively fresh stochastic sell signal, there is a distinct possibility that the correction of the last four weeks could extend significantly. However, if the bulls can keep the prices above US$29,000, the rally can continue at any time.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the correction of the last three weeks had created a pretty oversold situation and thus a low-risk entry opportunity. Now that bitcoin quickly recovered from those lows around US$29,000, the good low-risk set up is certainly gone. Especially since a third attack pullback US$29,000 would now have to be interpreted as weakness.But although the 200-day moving average (US$16,738) as well as the established support zone at US$20,000 are far away from current pricing around US$34,000, the setup looks promising. Based on the principle that a trend in motion is more likely to continue than to suddenly turn around, it is important to look for entry opportunities on the long side only (“buy the dip”). Bitcoin now has to surpass its recent high above US$38,600 to establish a short-term series of higher lows and higher highs. This would shift the daily chart clearly back into bullish territory.Overall, the daily chart is coming out of an oversold setup recovering quickly, but somehow is still stuck in a downtrend short-term. However, bitcoin has now been trading around and above USD 30,000 for more than four weeks already. This means that a base is being formed from which the rally should continue rather sooner than later.Sentiment Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesBitcoin Optix as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe quantitative sentiment indicator “Bitcoin Optix” signaled a short-term exaggeration at the end of December and then especially at the beginning of January. However, the sharp pullback in the order of 31% completely cooled down any excessive optimism and even created a small panic among the weak hands in the short term.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of February 1st, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the other hand, continues to measure an increased level of greed in the entire crypto sector. However, such conditions did persist for many months in the past.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn a long-term comparison, however, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also declined significantly and currently reflects a rather balanced sentiment picture.Overall, the overly optimistic sentiment has been cleared up surprisingly quickly due to the price decline from US$42,000 down to US$29,000. Hence, nothing stands in the way of a continuation of the rally from a sentiment perspective. Seasonality Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunities –Bitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, bitcoin has been most often moving sideways from mid o January until mid-April. Accordingly, the recently started correction could well drag on for at least a few more weeks.Bitcoin seasonality in bull market years. Source: SeasonaxHowever, if we only use the price development in bull market years, the data set shrinks to the years 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017. But at the same time, it becomes clear that in these years bitcoin always found an important low between mid-January and mid-February.Overall, one would be well advised not to expect any exaggerated price explosions in the coming weeks. Statistically, these tend to occur in the months of April to June and October to December. However, the seasonal outlook for the next one to two months is not really unfavorable either.Sound-money: Bitcoin vs. GoldSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of January 25th, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith current prices of US$33,650 for one bitcoin and US$1,864 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold ratio is currently around 18.05, i.e., you currently have to pay more than 18 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. In other words, one troy ounce of gold currently costs only 0.055 bitcoin.Goldbug´s Achilles Heel, Source Midas Touch Consulting January 25th, 2021.This means that bitcoin´s outperformance against gold has clearly intensified in the past two months. An end to this major trend is not in sight. Quite the contrary, despite possible short-term fluctuations and countertrend moves, gold and silver are more likely to lose further against bitcoin.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and of 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to Bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is normally also invested in equities and real estate, more than 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile Bitcoin is already a lot!Opposites compliment. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin you have a complimentary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro OutlookSource: Investing.comWith the inauguration of Joe Biden, the political circumstances in the USA have shifted significantly, but the loose monetary policy of the last twenty years is likely to continue and intensify significantly. The prices for gold and silver, as well as for bitcoin, will therefore continue to be driven upwards in the medium term by the constant expansion of the money supply.US Total Debt, © Holger Zschaepitz. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 20. Januar 2021The monetary policy, backed by nothing but the blind trust of the citizens, had already led to an unprecedented debt orgy in the USA since the end of the gold standard in 1971. The record-high US national debt was further exacerbated by the Corona crisis in 2020 and is now rising parabolically. The same applies to pretty much all other countries and currency zones on our planet.Global Stock Market Cap, © Holger Zschaepitz.. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 24. Januar 2021Driven by the constant currency creation, the market capitalization of global stock markets therefore continues to rise. It is important to realize that the stock markets no longer reflect the real economy as they used to. The only thing that matters is the constant expansion of liquidity via central bank balance sheets.Source: Bitcoin ResourcesThe unregulated and decentralized Bitcoin is therefore increasingly a thorn in the side of central bankers and politicians. After all, the irresponsible central bank policy can be recognized quite easily here. One can even say that in view of Bitcoin prices above US$30,000, the hyper-inflationary tendencies of fiat currencies are already becoming visible here. Whereas in the gold market one can always intervene in a depressing way on prices via so-called paper gold, the short-selling attacks on the Bitcoin markets are collapsing like a soufflé due to the digital scarcity. The decentralized structure of bitcoin is also a phenomenon that the technocrats will not be able to deal with, even with a ban.However, we have to assume that in the coming months or years there will be a concentrated attack on bitcoin by central bankers and politicians. However, the more institutional capital is invested in Bitcoin, the more difficult this undertaking will be.Source: Flipside CryptoA real point of criticism, on the other hand, is the extremely unbalanced distribution of the Bitcoins mined so far. Slightly more than 2% of the wallets hold 95% of the Bitcoins. This threatens to create a new power structure that can manipulate Bitcoin prices in its favor at will.Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesSource: Messari December 28th, 2020Bitcoin is undoubtedly in the middle of a new bull market. The final top has not yet been reached by a long shot. Prices around US$100,000 and possibly even above US$300,000 are quite conceivable in the next 10 to 24 months. The main drivers will be an institutional buying spree, as these institutional investors will come under an increasing pressure due to rising prices.Of course, there will be some brutal pullbacks on the way to higher prices. To be able to profit from this bull market, you need to be patient. And you really need to have internalized the so-called “Hodl” strategy.In summary, bitcoin is consolidating at high level trying to build a new base. This consolidation may well last a few more weeks and could also bring lower prices. More likely, however, is a continuation of the rally towards US$50,000 in the near future already.Source: Regard NewsAlso, it more an more smells like “altcoin season”. Bitcoin prices have already doubled from the old all-time high. Then, in the last four weeks, Ethereum also reached its December 2017 high around US$1,400. In the next phase, Ethereum should outperform Bitcoin. Afterwards, the smaller altcoins will explode. This time, the highflyers are likely to be in the booming DeFi sector. However, anyone who wants to play along here has to practice tough risk management and take profits regularly and quickly.Analysis sponsored and initially published on January 26th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu
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Gold – The bull market continues

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 23.12.2020 13:04
Precious metal and crypto analysis exclusively for Celtic Gold on 22.12.2020After four corrective months and a final bloodbath towards the end of November, it looks as if the low is in! Gold – The bull market continues.ReviewOn August 7th, the price of gold hit a new all-time high of US$2.075 . At that time we warned of the temporary end of the gold rush. As a result, over the past four months, there has been tough and stretched correction, with several pullbacks towards the support zone between US$1.850 and US$1.865.By November 9th, gold prices had just recovered back to US$1,965 when the final bloodbath phase began quite abruptly. In the following days, with their fifth attempt the bears were finally able to break through the aforementioned support zone, forcing the gold market into a small panic sell-off. After all, this sell-off ended on November 30th with an intraday double low at US$1,764.Since 9th of November Mondays have become quite challenging for goldSince then, there has been a clear turnaround over the last three weeks. Quickly, the bulls staged an initial recovery to US$1,876 before gold came back down to test US$1,820 one more time. Since the FED press conference last Wednesday, gold bulls came roaring back pushing prices towards US,1906 further upwards. At the start of this trading week, however, as it happened most Mondays in the last eight weeks, gold got strongly pushed lower after reaching new highs at US$1,905. The sharp slide saw gold tumbling down testing its solid support at US$1,855 once again. In the meantime, prices have recovered that vicious attack and are trading around US$1,875 trying to stage another attack towards US$1,900.Overall, the turnaround is not yet completely in dry cloths, but with a very high probability the bull market in the precious metals sector is now starting again fully.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 21st, 2020. Source: TradingviewWith a low at US$1,764, the timely forecasted correction bottomed most likely on November 30th. Since then, a recovery wave of more than US$140 has already been seen. The decisive element on the weekly chart now is the downtrend trend line of those last four months. Currently, this downtrend trend sits around US$1,915 and is moving a bit lower every day.The mere sight of this strong line of resistance apparently caused a sudden panic attack among the gold bulls at the start of this week. Hence, gold prices briefly went off from US$1,905 towards US$1,855 within a few minutes. However, we expect a first real test of this resistance line above US$1,900 over the next few days and weeks.Oversold weekly stochastic points to a contrarian opportunityOverall, the chances for a breakthrough during the next one or two months are also very good, and thus further price increases until spring are highly likely. In particular, the new buying signal from the stochastic oscillator looks pretty promising. Since the great panic in the summer of 2018 and the beginning of the fulminant uptrend in the gold market (starting from a low at US$1,160 in August 2018), the stochastic oscillator delivered a similarly oversold setup only in spring 2019 and November 2019. Each of those two setups were a great contrarian buy opportunity as each time followed a very strong rally in the gold market.In summary, we can assume the trend reversal for the gold market. Hence, over the next two to three months gold, silver and mining stocks should all move higher. A rally towards the November high at US$1,965 would be the absolute minimum for gold. More likely, however, would be a rally back above the psychological round number at US$2,000, including an extension towards US$2,015 and maybe even US$2,050. Nevertheless, this uptrend might present itself somewhat jerky and unround. Sharp pullbacks that emerge again and again will probably make life not that easy for trend-followers.A new all time is realistic in mid-summerOf course, a new all-time high above US$2,075 could also happen until early spring, given the exponentially increasing currency creations worldwide. Yet, it is not the primary scenario. More realistic would be a new all-time high during the second seasonally strong phase somewhere in midsummer.Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 21st, 2020. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the resistance zone between US$1,900 and US$1,920 becomes more obvious. This zone will most likely keep the gold bulls busy for a few more weeks. Moreover, as the stochastic oscillator on the daily chart has already reached its overbought zone, expecting a trading range between US$1,850 and US$1,920 likely well into mid of January is crucial.The support zone between US$1,850 and US$1,865 now has a very important catch-up function. If, contrary to expectations, this support does not hold, a further test of the upper edge of the medium-term uptrend channel around US$1,820 would also be acceptable. The 200-day moving avarage (US$1,816) is also approaching this price level. However, gold prices should not fall much lower, otherwise the bullish scenario will have to be questioned.In the conclusion, the daily chart is still bullish. An attack towards downtrend line slightly above US$1,900 is the most likely scenario in the short-term. However, this Monday’s sharp sell-off gives already a taste of the strength of this downtrend line. Pullbacks towards US$1,850 to US$1,865 and in particular another test of the 200-day moving average around US$1,820 would be another good entry opportunity. Only below US$1,800 will the bull market be in jeopardy. On the other side, the breakout above US$1,920 confirms the bullish case and opens up further potential towards US$1,955 and US$1,965.Commitments of Traders for Gold – The bull market continuesCommitments of Traders for Gold as of December 15th, 2020. Source: CoT Price ChartsAccording to the lastest CoT-report, the commercial short position increased again slightly. Overall, however, the constellation of the last one and a half years has hardly changed at all as the commercial traders continue to hold an extremely high short position. This accumulated  position currently sits at 306.342 short contracts.Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 15th, 2020. Source: SentimentraderOverall, and on its own alone, the weekly CoT-report continues to provide a clear sell signal for gold. This has been the case for more than a year already and continues to signal a great need for correction.Sentiment: Gold – The bull market continuesSentiment Optix for Gold as of December 18th, 2020. Source: SentimentraderWith the sharp sell-off until the end of November, the precious metals sector was at least partially cleaned up with a final bloodbath lasting several days. The great euphoria of the summer has thus turned into the opposite. Although the quantitative sentiment indicators did not signal any real panic, those low levels of optimism should still have been sufficient for a sustained bottom and turnaround.BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR GlobalInterestingly enough, November saw exorbitant outflows from the gold ETFs. Here, huge quantities of gold were thrown onto the market in a panic attack with the push of a mouse click. And this despite the fact that the price of gold simply went through a normal and expected correction since the summer. This chart clearly speaks for a cleanup of the weak hands!Overall, the sentiment analysis thus provides a good starting point for the first quarter of 2021. In the short-term, however, optimism is already a little too high. The path towards a higher gold price should therefore not be straightforward in the next few weeks but might be interrupted again and again by treacherous pullbacks.Seasonality: Gold – The bull market continuesSeasonality for Gold as of December 18th, 2020. Source: SeasonaxSeasonal-wise, all traffic lights are green over the next two months, as the price of gold has statistically been mostly able to rise until mid to end of February and often into spring. Hence, from the seasonal perspective, caution is recommended from early march onwards.Overall, seasonality these days provides a strong buy signal.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioWith prices of US$23,400 for one Bitcoin and US$1,865 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently 12,54. That means you have to pay more than 12 ounces of gold for one single bitcoin! In other words, a fine ounce of gold currently costs only 0,079 Bitcoin, which means another loss of more than 30% for gold against bitcoin. Bitcoin has been mercilessly outperforming the price of gold for the last several months.Generally, you should be invested in both: precious metals and bitcoins. Buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in the two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals (preferably physically), while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin, one should hold 1% to 5%. Paul Tudor Jones holds a little less than 2% of his assets in Bitcoin. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate higher percentages to Bitcoin and maybe other Altcoins on an individual basis. For the average investor, who usually is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is already a lot!“Opposites compliment. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin (BTC-USD) you have a complimentary unit of a true safe haven in the 21st century. You want to own both!”– Florian GrummesPatience is recommended if you are not yet (fully) invested in BitcoinOnly a significant pullback in the next one to four months towards and maybe even below the old all-time high at around US$20,000 would result in another opportunity to enter or allocate into bitcoin.Macro update and conclusion: Gold – The bull market continuesTavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 20th,2020.For almost 16 months, the balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) in the US has been exploding. In recent weeks, a new all-time high has been reached. Hence, the devaluation of the US-dollar (=fiat money) is therefore unabatedly continuing and is expected to accelerate further next year.Tavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 22nd,2020.Over US$1 trillion in US Treasuries will be due in the next 15 days alone! The current pace of currency creation of around US$80 billion per month will not be enough, as much more US Treasuries in the order of US$5.8 trillion will be due curing the course of next year. US central bankers are caught in a trap and will have to create ever-increasing amounts of currency out of nowhere.Tavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 18th,2020.Logically, therefore, inflation expectations in the US as well as worldwide are rising sharply.Tavi Costa, Crescant Capital, December 22nd,2020.At the same time, commodity prices are also on the verge of breaking out above their 12-year downtrend line and are expected to continue to rise strongly during the course of 2021.MoneyWeek, December 4th,2020.Not surprisingly, investors and financial market participants are therefore in a roaring 20s mood!  For the broad population, however, this is a catastrophic development, as inflation will devalue their monthly salary more and more quickly.For precious metals and the price of gold instead, this is the best of all worlds. At least until the spring, a recovery rally is expected for gold towards US$2,000 and silver towards US$30. Hence, another buying opportunities would present itself should gold drop one more time towards US$1,850 and US$1,820, respectively. Following the current “tax loss-selling” and the start of 2021, mining stocks should take over the lead in the sector again and could then outperform gold and silver until spring. Forecasting the full year 2021, silver in particular should be able to benefit from the rising inflation. Over the course of the year, a test of the all-time high around US$50 is conceivable. In midsummer at the latest, the price of gold should also be able to break out above US$2,100.Overall, silver and bitcoin remain the dream-team for the accelerating crack-up boom.Source: www.celticgold.eu

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