David Kindley

David Kindley

Market Strategist at Orbex Market Strategist at Orbex

David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.

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Euro-dollar Support Tested Amidst Rate Concerns and Labor Strikes

Tackling Turkey's Inflation Challenge: A Closer Look at Monetary Policy and Price Pressures

David Kindley David Kindley 03.08.2023 10:35
In our conversation with an analyst from broker Orbex, we delve into Turkey's current inflation situation and the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy. Turkey has been grappling with a persistent inflation problem, evident from the latest CPI and PPI readings. The Consumer Price Index rose by 9.49% MoM in July and by 47.83% YoY, indicating a concerning upward trend. While these figures are still lower than the peak inflation of 85% in 2022, they break an eight-month trend of inflation slowing down. The lira's sharp depreciation since President Erdogan's election win in May and the government's decision to raise taxes on essential goods and fuel have exacerbated price pressures, heightening the inflation risks.   FXMAG: What is your assessment of the CPI reading from Turkey, and do they allow the central bank to continue too loose a monetary policy? Turkey is facing a high and persistent inflation problem, as the latest CPI and PPI readings show. Turkey's Consumer Price Index rose by 9.49% MoM in July and by 47.83% YoY. Although these figures are much higher than the inflation rates in the US and EU, they are lower than Turkey's 85% peak in 2022. However, the latest figures are disappointing as they break Turkey's eight-month trend of slowing inflation. The lira's sharp depreciation since President Erdogan's win in the May elections has increased price pressures. The government also raised taxes on many essential goods and fuel, partly to cover the costly pledges it made before the ballot. This worsens the inflation risks. Meanwhile Turkey's Central Bank may soon be out of fire power as it has already responded with two sharp interest-rate hikes that raised its benchmark by 900 basis points to 17.5%.  
EXMO.COM analyst: Currently, Tesla is still trying to conquer the market by prioritising revenue over profit

Toyota’s (TM) Q1 profit edged up 3% from the previous year on robust sales. Are automotive companies’ share prices currently undervalued?

David Kindley David Kindley 12.05.2023 12:25
We continue to share analysts thoughts on automotive industry. Earlier today we published a comment of Marco Turatti. This time it's over to Orbex's David Kindley. David Kindley (Orbex): In 2022, automakers worldwide were hit by a shortage of computer chips and other auto parts due to the global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. In 2023, with supply chain bottlenecks finally easing, the world's biggest car makers have reported very strong Q1 earnings despite being faced with slowing global demand, persistent inflation, and higher raw-material costs. Toyota Q1 earnings David Kindley (Orbex): Specifically, Toyota’s (TM) Q1 profit edged up 3% from the previous year on robust sales. The automaker posted a sharp increase in sales for its first annual report offered under new Toyota CEO Koji Sato with $4 billion in quarterly net profit, up from $3.9 billion in the previous quarter. Quarterly sales also soared nearly 20% to $72 billion. The strong earnings came despite Toyota stating that soaring raw material costs also affected its bottom line. Read next: It should be noted that BoJ’s decade-long ultra-loose stimulus program has drawn intense criticism for broadening price pressures in the world's third-largest economy | FXMAG.COM Volkswagen Group in the first quarter of 2023 David Kindley (Orbex): Meanwhile, Volkswagen Group posted a solid start to the 2023 fiscal year, with operating profit before valuation effects from commodity hedging, increasing by 35% to $7.8 billion. VW’s first-quarter sales revenue also rose by 22% to a total of $83 billion, driven by a recovery in sales volumes in Europe and North America. BMW AG Q1 earnings beat expectations David Kindley (Orbex): In the case of BMW AG, the company’s first-quarter earnings also beat expectations, even though the company left its 2023 outlook unchanged due to softening global demand. Specifically, the carmaker reported an automotive earnings margin of 12.1% and pledged to boost earnings per share with a new $2.2 billion share buyback program. David Kindley (Orbex): It’s important to note that as most automotive companies’ share prices are currently undervalued, they could present solid long-term “buy and hold” opportunities for traders and investors.
USD/JPY Pair Has Rebounded Firmly From The Upward-Sloping Trendline

It should be noted that BoJ’s decade-long ultra-loose stimulus program has drawn intense criticism for broadening price pressures in the world's third-largest economy

David Kindley David Kindley 25.04.2023 16:15
FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the Japanese CPI? What will be the BoJ's next steps?  David Kindley (Orbex): Last Friday (Apri 21st) Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which includes energy costs, came in at 3.1% for March, matching a median market forecast. However, the year-on-year rise in the so-called "core core" index hit its highest rate since December 1981, and was up 3.8% year-on-year. This led investors to believe that the pressure is now on for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to begin raising rates. Market participants should instead be focusing on the BoJ's quarterly outlook report due after the meeting David Kindley (Orbex): It should be noted that BoJ’s decade-long ultra-loose stimulus program has drawn intense criticism for broadening price pressures in the world's third-largest economy. That being said, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda remains adamant that inflation in Japan is transitory as it’s mostly attributed to higher import prices. Ueda has vowed to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until there is concrete evidence that the current rise in inflation in Japan is driven by strong demand rather than import and supply pressures. It is highly likely then, that at the upcoming BoJ Interest Rate Decision on April 28, Ueda will opt to make no changes to BoJ’s ultra-loose policy and there will be no increase to their key interest rate which stands at –0.1% since January 2016. Read next: Cryptocurrency payments are steadily increasing, particularly as the DeFi market rebounds from the ‘crypto winter’| FXMAG.COM David Kindley (Orbex): Market participants should instead be focusing on the BoJ's quarterly outlook report due after the meeting. The report will include BoJ’s inflation forecasts until 2025 and can provide important insights into BoJ’s future monetary steps.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya: BoE will certainly leave the door open for further hikes

Orbex's analyst on GBP/USD: It’s important to note that UK interest rates may be raised during the next BoE meeting in early May

David Kindley David Kindley 14.04.2023 12:02
GBP/USD is at its highest level in a year. Will the pound continue to strengthen and why? Let's hear from David Kindley, Market Strategist at Orbex. David Kindley (Orbex): The GBP/USD has been on a steady rise in 2023 due to the improvement in the UK’s economic outlook and on bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will be looking to raise interest rates more aggressively. The raising and lowering of interest rates is one of the biggest driving factors in the strength or weakness of a currency, and with BoE’s key rate currently at 4.25% there’s certainly some more firepower for the Bank of England in terms of raising its key rate in 2023. There are expectations for both central banks in the US and the EU to also raise their key rates in May, which means that we can expect a lot of volatility in the forex market David Kindley (Orbex): It’s important to note that UK interest rates may be raised during the next BoE meeting in early May, which could be a key period for both the pound, but also the Euro and the USD. There are expectations for both central banks in the US and the EU to also raise their key rates in May, which means that we can expect a lot of volatility in the forex market, with interest rate increases becoming more and more analogous to their respective currency’s upside potential. Read next: The report signaled that inflation continues to slow with consumer prices barely rising in March and gasoline prices dropping | FXMAG.COM
Unraveling the Path Ahead: Gold and Silver Prices Amidst Fed Expectations

The report signaled that inflation continues to slow with consumer prices barely rising in March and gasoline prices dropping

David Kindley David Kindley 14.04.2023 11:34
This week saw US CPI declining nine month in a row. Thanks to David Kindley from Orbex, we can have a detailed look at the release. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the US CPI after it's released? David Kindley (Orbex): The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped for the ninth consecutive month in March to its lowest level since May 2021. Specifically, consumer prices overall increased 5% year over year, down from 6% in February and from a 40-year high of 9.1% last June, according to the latest release by the US Labor Department. Core inflation is still at a much higher level than the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% David Kindley (Orbex): The report signaled that inflation continues to slow with consumer prices barely rising in March and gasoline prices dropping. That being said, core inflation is still at a much higher level than the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%. Read next: EM Sovereigns: IMF remains cautious on World Economic Outlook| FXMAG.COM David Kindley (Orbex): While there are forward-looking signs that suggest inflation will slow further in the coming months, market consensus is that the Fed is still likely to increase key rates by another 25 basis points at its May 2-3 policy meeting. Should the Fed decide not to raise rates at their upcoming meeting, stock markets are likely to edge higher as this would signal an end to the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle. For reference, the Fed has hiked its policy rate by 475 basis points since last March from a near-zero level to the current 5.00% rate.
Orbex analyst on the EU inflation: This leads me to believe that the lower-than-expected CPI figure is heavily attributed to the decline in energy costs

Orbex analyst on the EU inflation: This leads me to believe that the lower-than-expected CPI figure is heavily attributed to the decline in energy costs

David Kindley David Kindley 04.04.2023 10:07
FXMAG.COM asked David Kindley to comment on the March Eurozone CPI. The print showed a noticeable decline of 1.6% coming in at 6.9%. David Kindley (Orbex): Europe’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures pointed to a considerable slowdown in inflation to its lowest level for more than a year, after a decline in energy costs. Specifically, consumer prices rose 6.9% in the year to March, down from 8.5% the previous month. The drop was sharper than consensus, resulting in an EU stock market rally on Friday, March 31st. It should be noted however, that core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, hit a new Eurozone high of 5.7% in March, up from 5.6% the previous month. Food price inflation also rose, from 15% to 15.4%, while services inflation was up from 4.8% to 5%. This leads me to believe that the lower-than-expected CPI figure is heavily attributed to the decline in energy costs. As demand for heating slows over the summer months, reining in on inflation will come down to the ECB’s next monetary steps and whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict is finally resolved by next winter. Food price inflation also rose, from 15% to 15.4%, while services inflation was up from 4.8% to 5% Read next: The UK's economic output remains 0.6% below its late 2019 level, making it the only G7 nation yet to recover from the pandemic| FXMAG.COM

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