Conotoxia Comments

Conotoxia Comments

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Record low consumer sentiment and lower stock prices

Record low consumer sentiment and lower stock prices

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 29.06.2022 11:06
The world seems headed for a massive suppression of consumer demand, one of the two components of inflation. This may be indicated by consumer sentiment data, which is dismal, while central banks may continue to raise interest rates rapidly. That, in turn, could worsen sentiment in the stock markets. U.S. stock futures stabilized Wednesday in Asian trade after major indexes closed sharply lower overnight as economic concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. Stocks rose in early regular trading on Tuesday before quickly losing ground after a disappointing consumer confidence index reading. The Dow fell 1.56 percent, the S&P 500 lost 2.01 percent and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.95 percent. Technology stocks led the declines, while energy companies outperformed on rising oil prices. U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 16 months in June as inflation concerns persisted and short-term expectations fell to their lowest level in nearly a decade. Federal Reserve officials in San Francisco and New York on Tuesday favored aggressive interest rate hikes to control inflation, but dismissed growing concerns that doing so could trigger a recession. They were talking about possible increases of 0.75 percentage points. Ultimately, the federal funds rate could be 3.5 percent by year-end. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note remained above 3.2 percent, rising 14 basis points from the two-week low of 3.0 percent reached the previous week, as investors assessed the outlook for monetary policy ahead of the PCE reading for May due this week. Investors may now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which may provide further clues to the path of monetary policy tightening. The market consensus seems to point to the possibility of a core inflation reading of 4.8 percent. If that were to happen, it would mark the third consecutive month of decline in that indicator from its February peak of 5.4 percent. As in the United States, consumer sentiment is not the best in Europe. The GfK consumer climate index in Germany fell to a record low of -27.4 points. All of the major sub-indexes lost ground, with the rising cost of living a factor as consumers continue to perceive a significant risk of recession in the German economy. The economic expectations index fell to -11.7 from -9.3; income expectations fell to -33.5 from -23.7, the lowest value in nearly 20 years. Willingness to buy fell to -13.7 from -11.1. - The ongoing war in Ukraine and disrupted supply chains are causing energy and food prices to soar, making consumer sentiment gloomier than ever, said Rolf Bürkl, a GfK consumer expert. - The European Central Bank will continue its path of policy normalization and will go as far as necessary to bring eurozone inflation back to its 2 percent target, he said. - President Lagarde said during a speech at the ECB's annual forum in Portugal. Lagarde confirmed that net asset purchases will end on July 1 and interest rates will be raised by 25 basis points in July, the first increase in 11 years. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Record low consumer sentiment and lower stock prices (conotoxia.com)
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 28.06.2022 10:24
The oil market has already reached its maximum production capacity and it will be hard to increase the crude supply. As a result, demand may begin to be primarily responsible for the price of oil will be. WTI crude oil futures rose to $111 per barrel on Tuesday, rising for the third session in a row. This is likely related to reports that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are nearing full production capacity. United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Monday that the country is producing close to the maximum amount of crude under the OPEC+ agreement, which is 3.168 million barrels per day. This confirmed comments made by French President Emmanuel Macron, who told U.S. President Joe Biden that the UAE and Saudi Arabia, previously seen as the only two OPEC countries with spare capacity, could barely increase oil production. What's more, political unrest in Libya and Ecuador threatens to cut supplies further. Libya's National Oil Corp said Monday that it may be forced to declare force majeure in the Gulf of Sirte region (force majeure is invoked when parties to a contract cannot perform due to situations beyond their control) if oil terminals there do not resume operations. The trouble with oil production is also affecting Ecuador, where the energy ministry has stated that the country may suspend oil production altogether due to anti-government protests. The situation is therefore becoming increasingly difficult as supply has less and less ability to influence the price of oil and compensate for the Russian embargo. Oil prices could therefore potentially remain at high levels for a long time. Thus, any increase in demand for this commodity could lead to increases and consequently again to a decrease in demand due to higher prices. It is also important to note that such high oil prices come at a time when the U.S. dollar is near its highest level in 20 years. Typically, a strong dollar could mean cheaper commodities settled in it, while a weaker dollar could mean higher commodity prices. Currently, the dollar index has stabilized around the 104-point level. Recent concerns about slowing global economic growth may have supported the dollar, as the currency is widely seen as a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The supply problem in the oil market is growing (conotoxia.com)
Gold and stocks in the spotlight for investors

Gold and stocks in the spotlight for investors

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 27.06.2022 09:48
In the high inflation environment that we are currently facing, some people are looking at the price of gold, which when denominated in USD could not quite protect against inflation. Nevertheless, gold could get support from another direction. Gold rose above $1,830 on Monday after news that some G7 member countries are planning to officially ban bullion imports from Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Britain, along with the U.S., Japan and Canada, were considering taking such a step. Given London's central role in the gold trade, this action could potentially have global reach and negatively impact Moscow's ability to raise funds. However, some analysts have argued that gold shipments between Moscow and London have already fallen to near zero since Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow, adding that the measure in the form of a possible decision merely formalizes what the gold industry has already been doing. Meanwhile, gold appears to have been under pressure since March on expectations that major central banks will continue to aggressively raise interest rates to counter galloping inflation. Meanwhile, in the stock market, U.S. index futures are continuing last week's gains, and Wall Street is trying to recover from this week's sharp plunge. The Dow gained 5.4 percent last week, the S&P 500 rose 6.5 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 7.5 percent. Nine of the eleven sectors in the S&P index posted gains last week, with strong weekly gains by large-cap companies such as Tesla (12.1 percent), Apple (8.9 percent), Microsoft (9.4 percent), Amazon (13.3 percent), and Nvidia (9.5 percent). Meanwhile, shares of energy and materials companies fell last week due to recession fears. Investors can still speculate whether stocks have found a bottom or are in the midst of a bear market. Markets are expected to remain volatile amid rising inflation, subdued sentiment, tightening financial conditions and a highly uncertain corporate outlook. The People's Bank of China injected a total of CNY100 billion into the banking system on Monday, its biggest daily cash injection since March 31, through seven-day reverse repo operations. This is aimed at easing pressure from rising demand for cash at the end of the first half of the year. With CNY10 billion worth of repurchase agreements maturing on Monday, the Bank pumped in a net CNY90 billion. The central bank began pumping more cash into the financial system last Friday. Demand usually picks up at the end of the quarter, when commercial banks also need to replenish their cash positions ahead of the central bank's quarterly administrative audit. Nonetheless, this helped to maintain positive sentiment in Asian stock markets this morning. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Gold and stocks in the spotlight for investors (conotoxia.com)
Riksbank set to hike 50bp in a bid to get ahead of the ECB

Rebounding on Wall Street. Dollar in trouble?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 24.06.2022 12:22
U.S. stock futures rose Friday after, continuing the previous session's rally. Wall Street is trying to unwind an earlier weekly slump in stock prices. Futures tied to the three major indexes rose between 0.6 percent, and 1 percent. From Monday to Friday, the Dow Jones rose 2.64 percent, the S&P 500 rose 3.29 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.02 percent. All three indexes are poised to break a three-week losing streak. It appears that recession fears remain a major concern for investors amid high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes, hence the current rebound in stock prices may be difficult to sustain over the long term. And it may remain so until a better economic outlook emerges. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his speech to Congress, reiterated that his commitment to limiting price increases is unconditional. Statements are coming from the Fed to raise interest rates again by 75 basis points in July, followed by several more increases of 50 basis points each. Market estimates are that the federal funds rate could rise to 3.5-3.75 percent this year, which would be the peak of the current cycle. The valuation of subsequent Fed actions in 2023-2024 seems to indicate the possibility of lowering interest rates to the level of 2.75 percent. The market may therefore begin to price the transition to loosening monetary policy, which in turn may be more beneficial for bonds, but also for risky assets - shares or even cryptocurrencies. The U.S. dollar, whose strength could come from expectations for interest rate hikes in the U.S., may already be rallied by the market, especially in light of growing expectations for interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Switzerland or finally the Bank of Japan, where inflation is the highest in 7 years and exceeds the Bank's target of 2 percent. In the near future, investors may turn away from the dollar if expectations for actions of the mentioned central banks come true. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Rebounding on Wall Street. Dollar in trouble? (conotoxia.com)
US Stocks: S&P 500 (-2.01%), Nasdaq (-2.98%) And Dow Jones (DJI) (-1.58%) Decreased. Japan: Nikkei 225 Has Gone Down

Jerome Powell effectively scares of the recession

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 23.06.2022 12:08
Financial markets are reacting to statements by the Federal Reserve chairman, who made no secret of the likelihood of a recession in the US due to the current situation and the need for further interest rate hikes. Jerome Powell in Wednesday's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee admitted that rapid interest rate hikes could trigger a recession in the US. Its avoidance depends mainly on factors beyond the Fed's control. Another risk is that price stability may not be restored and that high inflation may take root in the economy, but the Fed's goal is to bring price growth back to the 2 percent level. - Powell added. The Fed chairman said further interest rate hikes would be appropriate to quell surprisingly high inflation. More surprises may come later in the year. Therefore, the Fed will have to react to incoming data and the changing outlook. The Federal Reserve raised the funds rate by 75 basis points to 1.5-1.75 percent at its June 2022 meeting, instead of the 50 basis points initially expected, after inflation unexpectedly accelerated to a 41-year high last month. The market consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points in July, followed by 50 basis points in September. Nevertheless, the Fed chairman's clear statements effectively spooked investors in the commodities market and encouraged investors in the bond market. In theory, the recessionary phase of the business cycle is the bond phase of the cycle. As a recession approaches, investors begin to assume that interest rates may be catching their peak a little earlier and thus bond yields may no longer rise so sharply. This, in turn, can push bond prices higher. Meanwhile, a recession means less demand for commodities, which may mean that when the bond market peaks, the commodity market may peak. Then, as bond prices rise, commodity prices may fall, which is what business cycle theory assumes. Will this be the case? We will likely find out in the coming quarters. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Jerome Powell effectively scares of the recession (conotoxia.com)
Back to black: the countries best positioned to replace Russian gas with coal

Crude oil near one-month low | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.06.2022 12:51
The price of WTI crude oil fell more than 4 percent on Wednesday to $105 a barrel, hitting its lowest level in a month. The reason may be the increasingly negative outlook for the global economy and growing concerns that rising interest rates in the U.S., aimed at curbing soaring inflation, will slow demand. It is through rising fuel prices and inflation that Americans are expected to cancel trips and travel in part, according to a CNBC survey. This could also curb demand for fuel this summer season. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to call for a gasoline tax vacation and meet with seven major oil companies this week as part of a campaign to lower fuel prices. Signs of continued supply tightness persist in fuel markets, with Exxon Mobil and Vitol warning that demand is still not back to pre-pandemic levels and supply is not expected to keep up with demand growth. Crude supply disruptions caused by Russia's assault on Ukraine and the fact that OPEC is unable to pump more oil due to underinvestment have also kept upward pressure on oil prices recently. At the June 2 OPEC+ meeting, cartel members announced an upward revision to production targets for July and August. According to EIA, OPEC oil production will average 29.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in H2 2022, up 0.8 million b/d from H1 2022. In contrast, Russia's liquid fuel production will fall from 11.3 million b/d in Q1 2022 to 9.3 million b/d in Q4 2023. Analysts say the Fed-induced slowdown provides a short-term solution to soaring prices, but will not solve the problem of limited supply. Thus, high oil prices could persist for a long time to come. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Crude oil near one-month low (conotoxia.com)
German inflation comes down as government measures bite

Another central bank with a cycle of hikes | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 21.06.2022 11:25
The Reserve Bank of Australia has joined the ranks of central banks that are trying to control rising inflation by raising interest rates. A cycle of hikes has already been initiated by the following, among others: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Switzerland, and soon the European Central Bank will also join the ranks. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the spot rate by 50 basis points to 0.85 percent at its June 2022 meeting. The action could start Australia's first cycle of interest rate hikes in 12 years. The central bank's board said that massive monetary support is no longer needed due to the strength of the economy and current inflationary pressures. In addition, the labor market is strong as employment has increased and the unemployment rate was the lowest in nearly 50 years. Policymakers cautioned that further monetary tightening is on the agenda and the extent and timing will depend on incoming data and the Board's views on the outlook for inflation and the labor market, according to the RBA meeting minutes released. The committee reiterated its determination to do whatever is necessary to ensure inflation returns to target while noting the global outlook remains shaken by the war in Ukraine and its impact on energy and commodity prices. The RBA's actions may also prevent the Australian dollar from weakening too much, which could further import inflation. The AUD has lost 4.3 percent to the USD since the start of the year, one of the smaller losses of the world's major currencies. By comparison, the Japanese yen has weakened by almost 15 percent. Staying with the yen and monetary policy, the Bank of Japan remains the last of the world's major banks not to raise interest rates for now. However, the most interesting situation there is in the bond market, where the BoJ is defending the market against rising bond yields at all costs. The maximum level that is allowed is 0.25 percent on 10-year bonds. Thus, the number of institutions that want to play to break the Bank of Japan is growing. If this were to happen, the yen could definitely strengthen. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Another central bank with a cycle of hikes (conotoxia.com)
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

All Eyes On Jerome Powell (Fed), UK Inflation Rate And Eurozone | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 20.06.2022 17:28
This week, the attention of investors in the US may be captured by speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the focus will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate committee, and on Thursday - before the House of Representatives. In the US, the economic calendar seems relatively modest and includes: the release of data on sales of existing and new homes, the preliminary reading of the S&P Global PMI and the final report of the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment. The start of the week, however, will be quiet for the US stock and bond markets as these markets will be closed on Monday due to the Juneteenth holiday. In contrast, in the UK, the economic calendar is packed with key data such as inflation rate, retail sales, Gfk consumer confidence and S&P global PMIs. UK CPI inflation is expected to have risen 9.1 percent in May from a year earlier, accelerating from the 9 percent level reached in April this year and the highest level in 40 years. This could be another signal for possible further interest rate hikes in England. In Europe, we will learn flash PMI data for the Eurozone, Germany and France. Forecasts suggest that factory activity growth hit a 19-month low at the end of the second quarter, and the service sector expanded at its weakest pace in four months. Eurozone's consumer confidence likely rose in June from a two-year low reached in April. Germany's Ifo business climate index may fall slightly, mainly due to deteriorating current conditions. The coming week will also see central bank meetings in Turkey, Norway, the Czech Republic and Iceland. In Australia, PMI data for June will be published, but the focus may be on the minutes of the latest RBA meeting. In Japan, CPI data for May and June PMI data may draw attention. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Another hot week in financial markets (conotoxia.com)
Global equities staged a notable rally | Saxo Bank

A historic Fed decision | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 15.06.2022 13:00
We may be experiencing epochal events in the financial markets today. The scale of changes that are taking place in many asset classes has not been observed for decades. The list of important events may also include today's interest rate hike in the USA. The US Federal Reserve may raise the range of the federal funds rate by as much as 0.75 percentage points. The last time the Fed made such a decision was in 1994. Typically, the Fed has leaned toward increases of 0.25 percentage points or possibly 0.5 percentage points. The bond market also seems to be quickly discounting such changes in interest rates, as the rise in U.S. yields in recent days was the largest since the 1980s. It is also an epochal event. The peak of the hike cycle, which was still priced at 3 per cent at the beginning of June, is now priced at 4 per cent. Meanwhile, bond yields are in the region of 3.4 per cent. They have therefore not yet been able to fully price in what the interest rate market expects. The magnitude of events seems unprecedented, as the level of inflation in the US is extraordinary. In May, the inflation rate was the highest since 1981 and reached 8.6 per cent. American economists expect that in the coming months it may even exceed 9 per cent. On the other hand, in the last half-century, the Fed had only three occasions when it was forced to raise interest rates while stock indices were falling as much as they are now. Twice with rate hikes, the indexes managed to make up some of their losses. But once, after 1973, each rate hike hit the stock market even harder. In the end, the Nasdaq Comp. index losses were about 60 percent, excluding inflation. The Fed will additionally share macroeconomic projections today, from which investors will want to know where policymakers see the end of the hike cycle and what steps will be used to reach that peak. The projections will include data on inflation, the unemployment rate and US GDP. Publication at 8 p.m. This will be followed by a conference call by Jerome Powell, Fed chief, at 8:30 p.m. It seems that this may be the most important meeting with journalists of all so far. Questions may be asked about the attempt to balance the situation on financial markets, labour market and inflation. There should be no shortage of emotions this evening, and these events may affect both the stock market, cryptocurrencies, bonds, as well as the US dollar, gold and silver. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. A historic Fed decision (conotoxia.com)
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

Is 1 EUR To USD Going To Fluctuate? It's The Season Of Rate Hiking! (USD) Fed Decides Tomorrow, Can ECB (EUR) Surprise Us In September? US CPI Is Still In Charge Even If It Left Us With Mixed Feelings,

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 14.06.2022 12:23
The consequences of Friday's inflation data from the United States, which was the highest since December 1981, were still seen during yesterday's session on Wall Street. The echoes of this publication are not silent this morning either. Investors have started to price in the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this Wednesday by 0.75 percentage points or even by 1 percentage point compared to 0.5 percentage points last week. What's more, the peak of the hike cycle could be 4 percent, not 3 percent as previously thought. This was enough to cause chaos in the financial markets, which has not been seen for a long time. US bonds, shares and cryptocurrencies were heavily under pressure in fear of rapid monetary policy tightening and increasingly difficult access to money. This may also increase fears of recession, which combined with high inflation could turn into stagflation. This, in turn, could negatively affect the labor market. And the great crisis is ready. The changes that are taking place in financial markets nowadays have not been observed for decades. For example, the two-day change in interest rates on US bonds was the biggest since 1987. The fall in bond, stock or cryptocurrency prices also showed that all capital flows from these markets can still go to the US dollar. EUR/USD fell to a 4-week low at 1.04. The European Central Bank will end its asset purchases on July 1 and then raise interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in July. The bank also signaled that a larger rate hike may be needed in September if the inflation outlook worsens. Eurozone annual inflation hit new records in May, with the ECB's new forecasts putting it at 6.8 percent in 2022 before falling to 3.5 percent in 2023 and 2.1 percent in 2024. What assumptions does the Fed have on this topic? That's what we'll find out on Wednesday night when the latest macroeconomic projections are released. It seems that the only argument for the Fed not to raise interest rates by 0.75 or 1 percentage point is the divergence between CPI inflation and core inflation, which fell for the third consecutive month in May. A 0.5 percentage point hike in current market conditions could bring a so-called relief rally across many asset classes. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Markets on the verge of full capitulation (conotoxia.com)
Japan: retail sales rise while consumer sentiment weakens

The landscape in the markets after the inflation data | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 13.06.2022 09:51
Friday's inflation data from the United States for May brought high volatility to the financial markets. Bulls have nothing to be happy about, but market bears have another reason to be happy. Higher-than-expected US inflation in May, which rose to 8.6 percent, the highest level since December 1981, threw fear into investors in the stock, bond or cryptocurrency markets. The rise in fuel and food prices did its part, bumping up expectations for Fed action in the coming months decisively. The market even started to wonder if the Fed will raise the fed funds rate not by 50 bps, but by 75 bps at one of its meetings. This morning, Fed rate futures seem to be pricing in the 3.5-3.75% level as the target for this cycle. Meanwhile, not long ago it was pricing in around 3 percent. Thus, one can see a definite increase in expectations for faster monetary tightening. These expectations, along with the sucking of money through the real economy, in which market jargon can be used to say that the greatest bull market in decades is in full swing. The increase in real product prices that follows can suck capital out of non-tangible products and financial markets as intangible goods. In attempting to summarize recent events, one might look to the US bond market and the US dollar. The U.S. dollar again seems to be the most expensive in 20 years, and yields on 2 and 10-year bonds are starting to exceed the levels of 3%. The increased attractiveness of the interest rates on safe bonds, in turn, may cause investors to no longer to want to own so many risky assets. In the last week alone, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 6 percent, while on the cryptocurrency market bitcoin fell by 8.5 percent and ETH by 10 percent. The fact that this Wednesday we will learn the Fed's decision on interest rates along with macroeconomic projections of FOMC members adds to the excitement. For now, the market consensus is for at least two hikes of half a percentage point each occurring at the next two Fed meetings. It's fair to say that it's been a long time since a decision from the US central bank was as eagerly awaited by the market as it is now, especially as CPI inflation hit a record high but core inflation retreated for another month in a row. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: The landscape in the markets after the inflation data (conotoxia.com)
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Inflation In The USA (CPI) Schocked! It Hit 8.6%! How Will It Affect Stocks? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 10.06.2022 15:48
The long-awaited inflation reading from the United States saw the light of day and shrugged off the highest level of price growth in 41 years. The CPI inflation rate for May 2021 rose unexpectedly. At 8.6 per cent, it is a new record for inflation in the United States and the fastest price change since December 1981. The market consensus was for a reading of 8.3 per cent. The main reason for such high inflation still seems to be two factors: energy prices, especially fuel prices, and food prices. In the U.S., energy prices rose 34.6 percent in May, the most since September 2005, and food costs rose 10.1 percent, the first double-digit increase since March 1981. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 6.0 percent in May, a result that was slightly above the market consensus of 5.9 percent. Here, inflation peaked in March 2022, when the core price index was 6.5 percent. Since then, we have seen a decline in this measure of inflation. So the market got two divergent readings. On the one hand, a local record for consumer inflation, and on the other, falling core inflation. In this case, the Fed can affect mainly core inflation, as it has no influence on fuel or food prices. Nevertheless, the publication seems to spoil the sentiment on the market, where the contracts for American indexes began to fall after the data. The Nasdaq 100 recorded the biggest drop, retreating by about 1.5 percent. The historical relationship between inflation and indices has sometimes been such that the higher the inflation rate, the lower the indices were. Currently, that relationship may look similar. Meanwhile, the question among investors may again be when will inflation peak? Perhaps the slightly better data will come, but only after the summer season. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/USD In Focus! ECB Meeting In Sintra Is Like A Blockbuster Starring Lagarde, Powell And Bailey

ECB close to starting a soft cycle

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 10.06.2022 12:36
The euro fell more than 0.6 percent yesterday, to around $1.065 from $1.077. The reason may be the announcements of the heads of the European Central Bank relating to interest rate hikes in the Eurozone. The bank wants to follow a mild monetary tightening cycle. The European Central Bank decided to end its net asset purchases and signaled it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, leaving the door open for a larger hike in September. The ECB simultaneously lowered its economic growth forecasts and raised its inflation forecasts. The central bank expects annual real GDP growth of 2.8 percent in 2022, 2.1 percent in 2023 and 2.1 percent in 2024.On the price front, the new forecasts put annual inflation at 6.8 percent in 2022 These forecasts seem to indicate that the eurozone economy will soon reach its pre-evacuation position, where economic growth was also declining, but at least there was no inflation. Now the situation seems more difficult, because there are risk factors that could affect GDP growth negatively and inflation positively, leading to stagflation. Apart from the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of Japan, the ECB is the last of the major central banks to start raising interest rates. It is assumed that by spring next year, interest rates could be raised by 2 percentage points, which could increase the deposit rate to 1.5 percent from the current -0.5 percent. On the other side of the Atlantic, investors are waiting for inflation data. Meanwhile, the dollar index has strengthened to above 103 points, its highest level in three weeks. Today's inflation data could strengthen the case for aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Last week's and better-than-expected U.S. employment report pointed to a solid economy and supported the Fed's aggressive stance against rising inflation. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at its June and July meetings, and a high inflation reading would raise expectations for further tightening in the second half of the year. On the other hand, if inflation slows, some might consider it to have peaked. However, the aforementioned slowdown in the rate of price increases could only occur after the summer season. After all, gasoline prices in the U.S. hit record highs in June, which will translate into CPI. The data will be published today at 14:30. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. ECB close to starting a soft cycle (conotoxia.com)
EUR/USD In Focus! ECB Meeting In Sintra Is Like A Blockbuster Starring Lagarde, Powell And Bailey

What to expect from the ECB, how will the euro react? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 09.06.2022 13:39
Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank will answer the question of whether a 25 bps rate hike in July is a foregone conclusion, or whether there is room for a 50 bps rate hike, which is what the market seems to be increasingly expecting. It is unlikely that the Governing Council will surprise with a rate hike already on Thursday. Should such a surprise decision occur, we could see a strong reaction of the euro exchange rate. In a more likely scenario, the market may focus today on new projections for the 2024 inflation data, any indication that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 25bp in July and September, as signaled by President Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane, the central bank's chief economist. Market expectations for a rate hike this week are close to zero, while 25bp hikes in July and September are fully priced in, interest rate market data showed. However, markets are pricing in a total of 130bp of tightening by the end of the year, which would mean a 50bp hike at one of the four remaining meetings, other than the one today. If Governor Christine Lagarde limits herself to reiterating her previously outlined plans to raise rates by 25bp in July and September, the market may be tempted to price in tightening later in the year and into 2023. While a hawkish surprise cannot be ruled out at today's meeting, it appears that President Lagarde will stick with her recently outlined plan for 25bp rate hikes in July and September, ultimately increasing the risk of a slightly dovish valuation across the expectations curve. This, in turn, for EUR/USD could mean that the balance of risks appears slightly tilted downwards. A return to the 1.0500 level in the near term, under such a scenario, would be more likely. In contrast, aggressive monetary tightening could push the exchange rate towards 1.1000. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/USD And EUR/GBP May Fluctuate! Let's Watch FX Market Closely Today! HUF: National Bank Of Hungary Raised The Interest Rate!

Fluctuations Of Exotic FX Pairs? How Will EUR/PLN Change This Week? Are ECB And NBP Going To Leave Us Shocked!? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 06.06.2022 13:05
The beginning of the week may be full of interesting events on the currency market due to the decisions of central banks concerning interest rates and the monetary policy. We are talking about the decision of the Polish Monetary Policy Council on Wednesday and the decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday. According to the market consensus, the MPC will raise the reference rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 6%. Based on FRA contracts, however, this is not yet the end of the cycle. These contracts seem to indicate that the reference rate will increase to 7.5% by the end of the year. The space for further interest rate increases in Poland may still be open, as the inflation peak may not occur until after summer. Thus, the divergence between interest rates in Poland and, for example, in the eurozone, may still be significant, which in turn may have a more positive impact on zloty quotations in the long term. Moving on to the European Central Bank's decision, investors are preparing for its announcement, as it is expected to set the tone for next month's interest rate hike. The central bank will probably announce the end of its large-scale asset purchase program and confirm plans to raise interest rates in July, as inflation in the euro area shows no signs of slowing down, reaching a new record high of 8.1 percent in May. Investors estimate that ECB interest rates will rise by 130 basis points by the end of this year. They also give a 30 percent chance of raising rates by an additional 25 basis points in July, above the 25 basis points already fully priced in. This builds expectations for a 50 basis point hike in July. The European Central Bank last changed interest rate levels in September 2019, setting a record low for the deposit rate at -0.5 percent. In contrast, the last time the ECB raised interest rates was in July 2011. That was when the deposit rate reached its local maximum at 0.75 percent. The EUR/USD pair rate seems to be defending against dips below the 1.0350 level, which last occurred in 2016. It seems that currently in the United States, the market has fewer arguments for further rate hike pricing than in Euro land. This, in turn, may support the euro, which has been one of the weakest currencies in recent months. Since the beginning of the year, the common currency against the U.S. dollar has lost about 5.6 percent. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Japan: retail sales rise while consumer sentiment weakens

NFP better than expected - what could it mean? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 06.06.2022 10:16
The long-awaited by investors report from the American labor market was published today. It indicates quite good situation on American labor market. This, in turn, may translate into actions of the Federal Reserve. In May 2022, the US economy added 390 thousand full-time jobs. Despite being the smallest since last April, the reading came in above market forecasts of a 325,000 increase. The largest increases were in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing, while retail employment fell. Meanwhile, wages rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, less than expected (up 0.4 percent), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent. This could mean that the labor market situation remains good in terms of employment, but is already worse from the perspective of wages not following inflation. This, in turn, could mean that US consumers will have less money to spend, and that's a simple path to reduced consumption and a slowdown in the US economy. The stock market reaction seems to be unequivocal. After the publication of the data, the Dow Jones index lost over 200 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively. The markets seem to be afraid of a strong tightening of monetary policy, and comments from Fed representatives may leave no illusions. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the Fed is unlikely to change the path of interest rate hikes as the central bank tries to tame skyrocketing inflation. Also contributing to the deteriorating sentiment was the behavior of Tesla shares, which fell more than 5 percent after its CEO Elon Musk warned that he wants to cut 10 percent of its workforce due to the very poor sentiment in the economy. Rising unemployment and lack of adequate wage growth is a recipe for economic recession, which could negatively affect financial markets and resemble the situation 50 years ago. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Energy Technical Update - Oil prices turning bearish. Gasoline gives relief to commuters

What Does NFP Means To USD And Fed? WTI (Crude Oil) Has Gone Down, Russia Is Still A Member Of OPEC+ | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 03.06.2022 11:16
WTI crude oil futures fell below $116 a barrel on Friday, but still stand to make a sixth weekly gain after the eagerly anticipated OPEC+ meeting produced only a small increase in output, despite speculation of a larger increase in supply. The group of the world's major oil producers decided to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August instead of the previously agreed 432,000 barrels per day, a move deemed insufficient to compensate for the loss of supply from Russia. Russian production has fallen by 1 million bpd since the invasion of Ukraine and is likely to fall further once the EU ban on Russian oil imports takes effect. There has been speculation that the Saudis are preparing to increase production as part of a reset of relations with the U.S., and even suggestions that Russia may be exempted from OPEC+ monthly supply agreements. However, this has not happened and Russia is still part of OPEC+. NFP in the spotlight. Oil after OPEC+ decision (conotoxia.com) Fuel Prices This situation could cause the oil market to be pressured by more demand than supply this summer, which in turn could keep fuel prices high. High fuel prices mean high consumer inflation, which could possibly decrease only in the autumn. As a result, the most expensive holiday season in history could be upon us, and economists will have the perfect sample to test demand in a high price environment. Will some people cancel their trips? Or will they grit their teeth and go on vacation after all? It will be an interesting handful of statistics for the summer months that we will learn in early fall. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Meanwhile, as far as current events are concerned, investors' eyes may be turned to data from the US labor market today. At 2:30 pm, we will see the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The market consensus is for a reading of 325,000, according to a Bloomberg survey. The lowest estimate in the survey is 250k, and the highest is 450k. The data may show the condition of the US labor market, which in turn may be important for further actions of the US Federal Reserve in the context of interest rate hikes. For the time being, the market assumes at least a 1pp increase at the next two Fed meetings. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Broad markets rally for 2nd week. Curb your enthusiasm or consider crouching into champion commodities and FX? | Saxo Bank

Relief For Drivers? Crude Oil Price Has Decreased. "Economic Hurricane" Fears Has Made Dow Jones (DJI), S&P 500 (SPX) And Nasdaq Decline | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 02.06.2022 11:52
WTI crude oil futures fell more than 2 percent on Thursday to below $113 a barrel after news that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil production if Russian output drops significantly due to Western sanctions. The Financial Times cited a diplomatic source who said talks were underway for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production immediately. This could be announced at today's OPEC+ meeting. There was also speculation earlier in the week that some oil producers were considering suspending Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production agreement, further bolstering bearish sentiment. Thursday's drop in crude prices followed short-lived gains in oil markets, as initial reports of a partial ban on Russian oil imports from the EU and the reopening of the Shanghai market supported prices. Meanwhile, the EU failed on Wednesday to reach an agreement on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia after Hungary made new demands. In the broad market, U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday after rather harsh comments from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned of an economic hurricane triggered by the Federal Reserve and the war in Ukraine, which could cause Wall Street indexes to fall on the first day of trading in June. Futures tied to the three major indexes each fell about 0.3 percent. The Dow lost 0.54 percent on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.75 percent and 0.72 percent, respectively. The consumer staples, health care and financial sectors led the declines. The declines seemed to follow Dimon's statements at an investment conference. Investors also looked at new data that showed a still-tight labor market and stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity, raising concerns about further interest rate hikes. Contributing to this may also be statements from the Fed's Christopher Waller, who said he does not intend to postpone a 50 basis point hike until he sees inflation moving closer to the central bank's 2 percent target. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Podcast: Commodities rout points to recession fears

Will OPEC Suspend Russia!? Price Of Crude Oil Rises. Is Economic Slowdown Incoming? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 01.06.2022 16:23
WTI crude oil futures rose more than 1.5 percent on Wednesday to over $116.5 a barrel, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. The EU's decision to partially ban Russian oil sales and China's reopening after the lockdown may more than offset reports that OPEC may suspend Russia from the production agreement. Reports emerged yesterday that some producers are considering suspending Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production agreement, which could pave the way for other producers to pump more oil to markets, and that some Gulf members are planning to increase production over the next few months. Investors await weekly US crude inventories data, with markets expecting US crude inventories to have fallen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. Learn more on Conotoxia The price of crude oil in global markets appears to be fluctuating widely. Yesterday, three-month peaks were established, with a barrel of WTI already costing over $118. Later in the day, prices sharply turned back below $113. As a result, oil price volatility may still remain relatively high. Meanwhile, in the real economy, this could mean high fuel prices. We are feeling this in Poland, but Americans are also feeling it. The price of gasoline there has soared to its highest level ever at USD 4.2 per gallon.More expensive fuels are one of the main components of rising consumer inflation, and at the same time a factor for decreasing demand in other categories. The more we spend on fuel because we need to get to work, for example, the less we spend in terms of unnecessary needs, recreation or entertainment. This, in turn, is a ready recipe for an economic slowdown, which the financial markets seem to have been pricing for quite some time now. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Another bleak target outlook, World Bank worries about stagflation, bitcoin tumbles | Oanda

Crude Oil Has Reached Highest Level Since March! What's OPEC Going To Do!? Will Russian "Largest Bank" Be Banned From SWIFT Shortly? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 31.05.2022 11:51
Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday, reaching $119 per barrel of WTI and $123 per barrel of Brent, after EU leaders reached an agreement to ban imports of 90 percent of Russian oil by the end of 2022. The price of oil in global markets is at its highest level since early March, when prices soared in response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine. As the end of the month is also approaching, it's worth taking a look at an event that probably hasn't happened yet this decade. Namely, oil seems to have increased in price for the sixth month in a row. In May alone, the price increase may reach about 15 percent. In turn, since the beginning of the year, the price of WTI crude oil has already risen by about 60 percent. Coming back to the EU decision, this agreement resolves the impasse with Hungary over the toughest sanctions ever imposed on Moscow and paves the way for other elements of the sixth package, including the exclusion of Russia's largest bank from the SWIFT system. However, some analysts suggest that the rise in oil prices may be modest as the market has already priced in the move. China's oil demand is expected to rise after the cities of Beijing and Shanghai eased restrictions on Covid, with some reservations about the impact of soaring gasoline prices on global consumption. In the United States, the price of gasoline hit record highs, costing more than $4 per gallon in late May, having risen more than 100 percent in six months.In terms of production, meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to stick with its policy of moderate output growth at Thursday's meeting, rejecting calls from the West to increase production to lower prices. OPEC+ is not meeting its production targets. The shortfall was significant in April as capacity constraints and international sanctions weakened supply. Output from the OPEC+ coalition declined for the second month in a row, falling by about 500,000 b/d from March to 37.56 million b/d in April. Production was nearly 2.4 million b/d below the group's combined target of 39.94 million b/d for the month. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
New US home sales bounce, but it won’t last

More Efficient Stock Markets Were Accompanied By (USD) US Dollar And US Bonds Yields Weakening Last Week. In This One, Fed Members Speak, US Jobs Data Is Released And HP Stock Price May Be Affected By Earnings | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 30.05.2022 11:41
Last week brought a rebound in stock markets, breaking a series of weeks of losses, along with a weakening USD and falling bond yields. The current one begins in a similar vein. Learn more on Conotoxia US Jobs Data What are the key events for financial markets and investors in the coming days? In the United States, the employment report may draw attention. In May, the US economy is expected by consensus to add 310,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.6 percent for the third consecutive month, remaining the lowest since February 2020. On the other hand, wages were expected to rise 0.4 percent, which is slightly higher expectations than the 0.3 percent increase in April. On an annual basis, however, it is expected to fall from 5.5 to 5.2 percent. Fed Members Speak Their Minds Several Fed officials will speak on monetary policy this week, and the market has already reduced the chances of US interest rate hikes. At present, investors seem to assume that they may amount to 2.5-2.75 percent in July 2023. As recently as at the beginning of the month, hikes were priced at 3.25-3.5 percent. Read next: Altcoins: Tezos (XTZ) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tezos Platform | FXMAG.COM Earnings - HP Stock And GameStop Stock Price May Fluctuate The earnings season is underway. Salesforce, Kirkland's, Ambarella, HP and GameStop are expected to announce quarterly results. So far, 97 percent of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported updated results, with 77 percent reporting an EPS surprise and 73 percent reporting a revenue beat, according to Factset data. Monetary Policy - Bank Of Canada (BoC) From a global monetary policy perspective, the Bank of Canada may raise its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive increase in rates in Canada. Also in focus: first-quarter GDP growth data for Canada. In the UK, on the other hand, final PMI estimates are likely to confirm a sharp slowdown in business activity growth in May amid intensifying inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Eurozone Inflation - Germany, France, Italy, Spain In Europe, key Eurozone inflation reports will be released, including from Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The Eurozone annual inflation rate is expected to rise again in May, reaching a new record high of 7.7 percent, up from 7.4 percent in April. Unemployment figures will be published in the eurozone, as well as in Germany, Spain and Italy, while France, Italy, Switzerland and Turkey will report updated GDP for the first quarter. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Macro Insights: Leaning in on Emerging Asia

Wall Street breaks bad streak | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 27.05.2022 13:08
U.S. stock futures were little changed Friday after rising sharply the day before, which could lead the major indexes to break a multi-week streak of declines. How Are US Stocks (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) Doing? During regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 1.61 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.99 percent and the Nasdaq rose 2.68 percent, with the gains possibly due to strong retail sector results that boosted sentiment. For the week so far, the Dow is up 4.4 percent and is on track to break an eight-week downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose 4 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, this week and are on track to break seven straight weeks of losses. Previously, the Dow Jones had its worst weekly streak since 1923, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst weekly streaks since 2001. In addition to the risk of recession, investors in the U.S. stock market must also discount what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do in the near future. According to the interest rate market, the chances of a sharp tightening of monetary policy are now smaller than they were at the beginning of the month. At that time, it was estimated that the peak of the cycle could be in the region of 3.25-3.5 per cent, while currently the range is 2.75-3.00 or even lower. A reversal in expectations may also appear in statements by Fed representatives. A pause in the cycle is also possible to see how the economy responds to interest rate increases. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Inflation Inflation may also be a key issue. The core PCE inflation reading will be released today. According to market assumptions, the peak in US inflation could be set in February (5.4 percent). In March (5.2 percent), the reading was lower, and in April it is expected to be at 4.9 percent. If the forecasts come true, theoretically, at the peak of inflation, stock market indices could be close to setting the bottoms in the recent corrections. The US dollar may also be weakening for similar reasons. It is the weakest in a month and EUR/USD has already risen to near the 1.08 level from the 1.0350 area. The dollar appears to be losing value through a drop in expectations of US rate hikes, including a drop in US bond yields. There is also a chance of calming inflation readings, and in turn, the rate hike cycle may only be gaining momentum in other countries. A weaker dollar could also theoretically improve sentiment on risky assets. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Oil stocks charge again, are US equities on the brink of a huge disappointment and BHP attempts to rise out of bear market

Fed did not surprise – markets without panic | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 26.05.2022 12:15
Yesterday evening, the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting were published. It brought the decision makers' perspective on the cycle of interest rate increases in the United States. The next key event, in turn, may be the US inflation reading. Fed And Rate Hikes Most Fed members judged that 50 basis point hikes in the target range of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate at the next few meetings, according to the May FOMC meeting minutes. Policymakers also noted that a tight monetary policy stance may be appropriate depending on the changing economic outlook, which is seen as highly uncertain. The Federal Reserve raised the target federal funds rate by half a point in May, to 0.75-1 percent, the second consecutive increase in borrowing costs and the largest since 2000. It was introduced to combat soaring inflation. Jerome Powell U.S. central bank officials conveyed that further increases in the target range would be appropriate, with Governor Jerome Powell indicating increases of 50 basis points at the next few meetings. However, the interest rate market is not entirely sure whether such aggressive hikes will actually take place. The Fed updated its forecast for inflation as measured by the PCE index to 4.3 percent in 2022. It also lowered its forecast to 2.5 percent in 2023 and 2.1 percent in 2024. According to the market consensus, the US core PCE inflation reading of 4.9 percent may appear tomorrow. This would mark a retreat from the peak inflation of 5.4 percent in February. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Dollar Index (DXY) And Stock Market Can Be Affected Thus, if the Fed's forecasts come true, financial markets, including bonds, shares and other risky assets could discount the cycle of interest rate increases, and its peak could fall at 3-3.25 percent. This is also where the yields of 10-year US bonds have recently found themselves, now retreating to the region of 2.7 percent. This, in turn, could affect the US dollar or the stock market. In both cases, the recent strong trends, USD strengthening and stock corrections, may also be slowing down or slowly coming to an end. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
NZD supported by central bank | Conotoxia

NZD supported by central bank | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 25.05.2022 10:19
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates for the fifth consecutive time at its May meeting. The 50-basis point hike from 1.5 percent to 2 percent was in line with market consensus, but may have impacted the New Zealand dollar. The RBNZ signaled that in the face of rising prices, the OCR rate will reach a higher level than previously forecast. RBNZ officials added that a larger and earlier hike reduces the risk of inflation becoming entrenched, while providing more flexibility considering a highly uncertain global economic environment. The cash rate will peak at 3.95 percent in the third quarter of 2023, much sooner than predicted in February, when the peak at 3.35 percent was expected to fall in 2024. - according to information provided for the RBNZ decision. Bank policymakers acknowledged that New Zealand's economy remains strong on the back of a robust labor market, strong household balance sheets, continued fiscal support, good terms of trade and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. However, they cautioned that there are strong headwinds due to global uncertainty and rising prices. Once aggregate supply and demand are more in balance, the OCR rate could return to a lower, more neutral level. The NZD/USD pair price rose by around 0.8 percent this morning, crossing 0.6500, its highest level since the beginning of the month. Back in the first half of May, NZD/USD was at 0.6200, which was the lowest rate in two years. Thus, it can be seen that the NZD/USD May 2022 rate is trying to make a quick comeback from relatively low levels. Perhaps it is helped by the fact that in the US the market may have already largely discounted interest rate hikes, while in other parts of the world, including New Zealand, it has not yet. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Oil recovers, gold inches higher

What's The Future Of Energy Stocks? High Crude Oil Prices And No New Investments | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 24.05.2022 12:29
A paradox seems to be emerging in the oil market. Typically, high prices caused companies to increase investment so they could produce more, boosting their profits and meeting demand. Currently, this may not be the case. Investors were also concerned that high oil prices could reduce fuel consumption around the world Oil prices are still above the $100 per barrel mark, but oil production companies are not expected to invest in exploring new fields or starting new drills. Representatives of the world's largest company, Saudi Aramco, are even announcing that the world may face a serious supply crisis in the oil market. Energy companies may be afraid to invest in this sector in the face of pressure related to politicians' attitude toward energy transformation and renewable energy sources - Reuters reports. Thus, energy companies may keep their current profits to themselves instead of investing until regulations and laws lead to a reduction in their market share. This, in a way, may explain why OPEC may care about high oil prices and why the cartel is not increasing production to the levels it declared earlier. Additionally, investors were also concerned that high oil prices could reduce fuel consumption around the world. Moreover, at the annual economic summit in Davos, political and business representatives highlighted the risk of a global recession in the face of multiple threats. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she does not expect a recession in major economies, but cannot rule it out. Meanwhile, lingering concerns about tight global supply and hopes for a return of demand in China provided some support for oil prices as Shanghai prepares to reopen and lift restrictions. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM In contrast, rising oil prices and slowing economic growth will significantly constrain demand growth for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023, according to a May IEA report. In addition, prolonged restrictions in China, where the government is battling the spread of the Covid-19 virus, are causing a significant slowdown in the world's second-largest oil consumer. For the full year, global oil demand is forecast to average 99.4 mb/d in 2022, up 1.8 mb/d year-on-year. If refiners cannot keep up with the pace of demand growth, consumers could come under additional pressure With the easing of restrictions in China, increased summer car traffic and further increases in jet fuel prices, global oil demand will rise by 3.6 mb/d from its April-August low. If refiners cannot keep up with the pace of demand growth, consumers could come under additional pressure. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
ECB stuck in sequencing | ING Economics

S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Definitely Don't Feel Really Well, Further Rally Of US Dollar (USD)? FOMC Minutes To Be Released Shortly | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 23.05.2022 11:33
For the past two months, stocks, precious metals, bonds, and cryptocurrencies have all seemed to fall at the same time. Today, however, and perhaps throughout the week, there may be an attempt to break the bad run in many of the markets mentioned above. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have fallen for seven weeks in a row The Dow Jones Industrial Average index has fallen for eight weeks in a row, something that previously happened in 1923, a few years before the Great Depression occurred in the United States - the most significant economic crisis of the century. Some market observers say that now, nearly 100 years later, history may be repeating itself, and the bear market is just beginning. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have fallen for seven weeks in a row, which was the longest series since 2001. Technically, the U.S. indexes, having fallen more than 20 percent from their peaks, may already be in a bear market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM However, there are indications that a turnaround may be underway. Investors may have already discounted the U.S. interest rate hike cycle, assuming that the Fed will raise interest rates to 3.00-3.25 percent within a year. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds have already peaked in that area, at one point exceeding 3.10 percent, while on Monday their rate fell to 2.80 percent. The lower U.S. bond yields, the more attractive stocks, and other risky assets can be, including precious metals like gold and silver. This week, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 8 p.m. on Wednesday, May 25..., which could give investors further clues about monetary policy in the U.S. and how to price the interest rate hike cycle further possibly. This could again impact many markets: from the US dollar to stock indices, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Read more on Conotoxia Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
It smells like a peak in US market rates

Plunging (USD) US Dollar!? DXY Going Down? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 20.05.2022 12:26
The US dollar seems to be losing value in recent days. The US currency's six-week streak, which affected many markets, may be coming to an end. The past six weeks have seen the capitulation of every market settled in USD The systematic strengthening of the U.S. dollar over the past month and a half could be related to both expectations for interest rate increases in the U.S., the war in Ukraine, as well as a deterioration in sentiment on risky assets. Looking at the charts of the dollar, stock indices, US bonds, gold, silver or cryptocurrencies, the correlation is quite clear. The past six weeks have seen the capitulation of every market settled in USD. Stocks, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies fells, and the dollar strengthened. Now, however, the dollar's streak may be broken by its first recent week of weakness. Recession fears, which appear to be growing, may be influencing the valuation of monetary tightening by the Fed Thanks to this, we can see a rebound in the prices of gold, silver, cryptocurrencies, and bond yields seem to be turning back under the 3% level for US 10-year notes. Recession fears, which appear to be growing, may be influencing the valuation of monetary tightening by the Fed. The market may also have fully discounted the US interest rate hike cycle. At one point, 10-year bond yields exceeded the 3.1 percent level, and the interest rate market assumes that the peak of the hike cycle will end in the 3.00-3.25 percent region. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Going forward, 10-year bond yields would first rise to the level to which the federal funds rate would then rise on the principle that the market discounts the future. So if the market is already at a point where there is a full cycle of hikes in bond, stock, dollar, gold prices, then the next step may be to price in monetary easing. This in turn can create turning points across multiple asset classes and markets. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Nightmare for the Fed: Will Jerome Powell follow the path of Paul Volcker?

S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones (DJI), Nasdaq And Walmart (WMT) Falled, But Probably Not In Love | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 19.05.2022 12:27
Fear of a recession may be one of the reasons pushing risky asset prices lower. Yesterday alone, the Dow Jones fell 3.57 percent and the S&P 500 fell 4.04 percent, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite was off 4.73 percent. The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit Another turnaround on Wall Street came after the release of the results of U.S. big-box retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Target. The share price of the former fell by almost 25 percent from its April peak, and the latter by about 40 percent. Why is this important? The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit. Decrease in consumption by higher inflation, as shown by the results of companies and their comments to the results, can therefore be a wake-up call that the US economy will no longer grow so rapidly. As a result, there has been an even greater fear of recession, which in the current inflationary environment brings to mind the stagflation of the 70s-80s in the United States. Add to that rising lending rates through interest rate hikes, broken supply chains and an expensive U.S. dollar eroding export profits. According to some, this is the perfect set of factors that could push the market further into the embrace of a waking bear market. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed In a more optimistic scenario, however, they may predict that inflation will peak in the second or third quarter of this year and then begin to decline starting in the fourth quarter of 2022. At that point, consumers could breathe a sigh of relief as prices would still rise, but no longer as fast as before. The same could be true for the stock market, which statistically, in cycles of interest rate hikes, seemed to create corrections in the first reaction and then continued earlier trends. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed. At that point, they could switch from the dollar to bonds or stocks, which could also put the brakes on the declines currently seen. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year alone, the Nasdaq index has fallen by 27 percent, the S&P 500 by more than 18 percent, and the Dow Jones by less than 15 percent. U.S. 10-year bonds have shrunk by 8 percent, and gold has fallen by 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has gained about 8 percent. This could quite clearly show that the cash phase of the cycle may be underway. It may be followed, according to theory, by the bond phase of the cycle and only the equity phase of the cycle. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
A decrease in US inflation will return market optimism

What are investors afraid of? | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 18.05.2022 15:42
As it does every month, Bank of America conducts a survey of fund managers with nearly $900 billion AUM. Its results in the May edition seem very interesting, indicating the risks and actions of institutional investors. According to the survey, investors appear to be hoarding cash as the outlook for global economic growth falls to an all-time low and fears of stagflation increase. Cash holdings among investors have reached their highest level since September 2001, according to the report. A survey this month of investors managing $872 billion also found that hawkish central banks are seen as the biggest risk to financial markets. A global recession came in second, and concerns about stagflation rose to their highest level since 2008. The findings could show an uninspiring outlook for global equities, which are already on track for their longest weekly losing streak since the global financial crisis, as central banks turn off the tap on money at a time of stubbornly high inflation. The BofA report said the stock market may be in a bear market, but the final lows have not yet been reached. More interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are still expected, and the market is not yet in full capitulation. The BofA survey also found that technology stocks are under the most pressure since 2006. Overall, investors were most attuned to holding cash, and are least inclined to go for: emerging market stocks, eurozone stocks and bonds at the moment. The report also found that the so-called most crowded trades at the moment are long positions on oil (28%), short positions on U.S. Treasury bonds (25%), long on technology stocks (14%), and long on bitcoin (8%). According to the respondents, the value to which the S&P 500 index would have to fall for the Fed to start refraining from further monetary policy tightening falls at the level of 3529, i.e. about 12% below the current level. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate To Change In The Near Future!? | Australia with further rate hikes on the horizon | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 17.05.2022 11:18
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May meeting were released today, where there was a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.35 percent, which was above the market consensus of a 15 basis point hike. It was the first rate hike since November 2010. However, the central bank has announced further monetary tightening in an effort to counter rising inflation. The central forecast for Australian GDP is for growth of 4.25 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023. Household and business balance sheets are in good shape, a recovery in business investment is underway, and there is plenty of construction work lined up. Headline inflation is projected at about 6 percent in 2022 and core inflation at about 4.75 percent, before falling to about 3 percent by mid-2024. - according to the minutes released today. The RBA's attitude may affect the Australian Dollar (AUD). This morning the AUD/USD exchange rate is back above the 0.7 level, rising about 0.5 percent. UK with better employment data The number of people in work in the UK rose by 83,000 on a quarterly basis, well above market expectations of an increase of 5,000. Thus, the UK unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in Q1 2022, the lowest reading since 1974. The consensus was for a reading of 3.8%. For the first time since records began, the number of unemployed (1.257 million) is lower than the number of job vacancies, which reached a new record of 1.295 million. Real regular wage growth in the UK was 2 percent lower than a year ago, the largest decline since Q3 2013. High inflationary pressures appear to be hurting consumer spending power. The GBP/USD is turning back from potential support at 1.2100 and is currently in the area of 1.2400. The good labour market situation may also cause the Bank of England to take a bolder approach to further interest rate hikes.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Commodities Feed: Another week passes with no EU ban | ING Economics

Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks This Week! Awaiting UK CPI, Walmart, Home Depot And Cisco Earnings | A week full of important economic data | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 16.05.2022 13:48
After a turbulent last week, the week that is now beginning may prove to be interesting from the perspective of macroeconomic publications. They may have an impact on individual currencies and on the stock market. The earnings season on Wall Street will continue with reports from major retailers including Walmart and Home Depot, as well as Target, Cisco Systems, Lowe's and Deere In the United States this week investors may closely follow the speeches of several Fed representatives, including the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. All this in order to dig for information regarding the interest rate hike cycle. Retail sales data may show that consumer spending increased in April, while industrial production data, the NY Empire State Manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index will likely indicate a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Data on home construction starts, building permits, sales of existing homes and the NAHB Housing Market Index will likely show that the housing market is cooling. The earnings season on Wall Street will continue with reports from major retailers including Walmart and Home Depot, as well as Target, Cisco Systems, Lowe's and Deere. Meanwhile, in the U.K., where the British pound appears to be under a lot of pressure, a lot of interesting data will be published. Consumer inflation likely rose to 9.1 percent last month, which would be the highest reading since at least 1991, and Gfk retail sales, labor productivity and consumer confidence data will also be reported. Investors will follow Monday's hearing of the Bank of England's monetary policy report before the Treasury Committee, which will be attended by Governor Andrew Bailey. In Europe, Russia is expected to release Q1 GDP data, which will provide a preliminary diagnosis of the impact of the war with Ukraine and imposed sanctions on the Russian economy. Investors will also keep a close eye on the European Commission's fresh spring forecasts, while the ECB meeting minutes and President Christine Lagarde's speech in Darmstadt, Germany may provide further clues about the central bank's plans to fight inflation. Also in focus will be the second estimate of Eurozone GDP growth and final CPI data. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Improved sentiment at the end of the week | Conotoxia

Improved sentiment at the end of the week | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 14.05.2022 14:19
The past week may go down in the history of the capital markets, especially the history of the cryptocurrency market. Unfortunately, it will not be a story of success, but of failure, which will perhaps strengthen the entire market in the future. For the week, despite Friday's rebound, the Dow and S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6.4 percent The Dow Jones gained more than 200 points at the open of trading on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.1 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, as investors were able to take advantage of lower valuations at the end of a week dominated by concerns over aggressive monetary tightening and slowing economic growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that lowering inflation to a 2 percent target could cause some pain, adding that resolving the problem of rising prices without triggering a recession may depend on external factors. Markets interpreted the statements as more dovish, easing concerns that the Fed will at some point raise rates by 0.75 percentage points to curb high inflation. For the week, despite Friday's rebound, the Dow and S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6.4 percent. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM If we take a broader look at the statistics on the scale of declines on U.S. indices since the beginning of the year, 2022 and its 91 trading days so far seem to be the worst year since 1932. Then, 90 years ago, for 91 days of trading on Wall Street, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 28 percent. Today, it was less than 18 percent. Historically, the current correction is something extraordinary and rare, so some investors may even consider it a kind of opportunity. BTC/USD is trying to hold above the $30,000 level On the cryptocurrency market, some speculators may have also considered that it will be harder to make things even worse than they were in the last few days, and whoever was supposed to sell their coins in a panic has already done so. The market has gone through a cleansing of sorts and as sentiment improves on other risky assets, BTC/USD is trying to hold above the $30,000 level. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The further fate of stock indices or cryptocurrencies may depend on the inflation factor. If the one in the U.S. in March caught its peak at 8.5 percent, and subsequent readings, will be lower and lower, like April's 8.3 percent, it is possible that the improvement in sentiment may be more durable. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stocks turn negative on Wall Street

Gold Price (XAUUSD) Nears 3-Month Low, The US Dollar (USD) Performance Agains (EUR) Euro Makes EUR/USD Decrease 2016's Lows And (BTC) Bitcoin Price Is Back Above $30K | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 13.05.2022 11:43
Gold held near three-month lows near 1,825 USD per ounce on Friday and is falling for the fourth week in a row from 1990 USD. One factor for the decline in gold prices could be the strengthening U.S. dollar, which seems to have stabilized near the 20-year high reached on Thursday. The USD strengthening may have followed the release of US consumer and producer inflation data, which seems to reinforce expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, may raise concerns about a weaker global economic outlook, helping to boost USD demand. The recent strengthening of the USD may also be related to the divergence in monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic Recall that the U.S. core CPI remained near a 40-year high of 8.3 percent in April, while the core CPI also exceeded expectations at 6.2 percent, fueling fears that high price levels may persist. Thus, markets are anticipating increases of 50 basis points at each of the next two Fed meetings in June and July. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This could also be significant for the EUR/USD major pair, which approached the 1.0350 level this week, its lowest level since December 2016. The recent strengthening of the USD may also be related to the divergence in monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed is moving towards aggressive hikes, while the European Central Bank may raise interest rates by 50-75 basis points in total by the end of the year. Thus, the scale of divergences seems to be very large. Bitcoin rebounded yesterday from its lowest level in almost 17 months and crossed the $30,000 mark today In addition to gold and the dollar, attention should again turn to the cryptocurrency market and towards stock market indices, where in both cases an attempt to defend against possible further declines may be underway. Bitcoin rebounded yesterday from its lowest level in almost 17 months and crossed the $30,000 mark today. Despite this, the world's most popular and widely used cryptocurrency is at this point on its way to its worst week in four months, falling more than 10 percent. Yesterday, the market additionally saw a likely panic as the tether to USD exchange rate departed at 1:1. At the apogee of fears for the collapse of the largest stablecoin, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have reached its weekly lows. Currently, USDT is trying to get back to the 1:1 exchange rate, and the rest of the market seems to be stabilizing. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Ether (ETH), (BTC) Bitcoin, LUNA, NFT - They All Plunges! Crypto Market Crash Aka "Cryptogeddon" | Conotoxia

Ether (ETH), (BTC) Bitcoin, LUNA, NFT - They All Plunge! Crypto Market Crash Aka "Cryptogeddon" | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 12.05.2022 17:55
George Soros' speculative attack on the Bank of England, the removal of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate and finally the collapse of Lehman Brothers - these are the events of the classical financial world, the scale of which may reflect what is currently happening in the world of cryptocurrencies. Unexpected factors like war could have led to price declines Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market seemed to have already deteriorated since last autumn, which could also correlate with the traditional stock markets that are part of the riskier asset category. Expectations of interest rate hikes, the cash phase of the business cycle in anticipation of higher inflation and lower GDP growth, or later, unexpected factors like war could have led to price declines. However, the current events, are no longer just a simple correction, but a true test of the entire crypto-system. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The collapse of the NFT market The breakdown of the Terra ecosystem by detaching the 1:1 convertibility of UST to USD, the fall of its main token - Luna, from over $100 a piece to a dozen cents, the collapse of the NFT market, the attempt to detach the convertibility of the largest stablecoin USDT from 1:1 to USD, and the massive discounts of bitcoin and ethereum, the largest cryptocurrencies - these are all events that happen at once, and in a very short time, and the market is trying to cope with them. This, in turn, can cause extreme fear among cryptocurrency holders similar, perhaps, to the fear in the eyes of tech company stock holders when the dot-com bubble burst. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM On the occasion of the prior cycle, the price of BTC fell from around $19,000 to around $3,000 Nevertheless, anyone who participates in the cryptocurrency market must also be aware of its cyclicality, especially when it comes to bitcoin and halving cycles. From this perspective, a classic bear market may currently be forming ahead of the next halving, which is expected to occur in March 2024. From a historical perspective, it is during the time occurring between the two halving cycles (the previous one was in 2020) that the biggest correction in the BTC price may occur. On the occasion of the prior cycle, the price of BTC fell from around $19,000 to around $3,000. If this is compared to bitcoin's peak in 2021 around $70,000, then even a drop to $11,000 would not be out of the ordinary. However, never before has the cryptocurrency ecosystem been as extensive as it is now, nor has it been as large as it is now, hence perhaps the scale of the repricing in the cycle may not be as significant as before. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
ECB's Marathon. Earnings Season Is Coming! What's Up Equities?

Here Is Why US Inflation Data (CPI) Is That Important Not Only For US Dollar (USD) Its Index (DXY), But Also For Stocks, Bonds And Other Assets | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 11.05.2022 15:28
Today at 14:30 important macroeconomic data for the US economy will be published, which may also affect asset valuations outside the United States - we are talking about inflation data. In March 2022, inflation in the United States rose to 8.5 percent, which was the highest reading in 40 years. The rise in prices, in turn, may have affected several market measures. First, it forced the Fed to act, as the Federal Reserve is supposed to care about price stability and should raise interest rates if prices rise. This in turn could have influenced expectations of higher USD interest rates in the future and a strengthening of the dollar to levels last seen 20 years ago. Further expectations of rising rates could lead to an increase in bond yields, where for 10-year bonds they are in the region of 3%. The increase in bond yields, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy, and shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, in turn, are information that could adversely affect the stock market, which in the case of the Nasdaq 100 index found itself in bear market territory. This spiral seen in many markets may continue until investors fully discount inflation, rising yields, and expectations of interest rate hikes. Interestingly, the latter had already begun to fall earlier in the week as recession fears increased. Currently, based on the federal funds rate contracts, the market is assuming a peak for hikes in mid-2023 at 3.00-3.25 percent. That's lower than the 3.5-.375 percent assumed as recently as the beginning of the month. The determinant, in turn, of whether there is a chance of full pricing for U.S. rate hikes may be where inflation will be. If this one peaks this six months and starts to fall, the market may stop assuming very aggressive Fed action. This, in turn, could bring relief to the bond market, the stock market, and also lead to the US dollar being close to its cyclical peak. Hence, today's and subsequent data on price growth in the U.S. economy could be so important. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Sell in May and go away - 2022 version | Conotoxia

Sell in May and go away - 2022 version | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 10.05.2022 11:11
Financial markets still seem to be discounting the prospects of more difficult and expensive capital raising after interest rate hikes and a weaker outlook for the economy with consumption falling due to inflation. For the first 10 days of the month alone, the German Dax fell by about 4 percent, the U.S. Nasdaq 100 by 3.7 percent, the S&P 500 by 2.5 percent Thus, the stock market saying sell in May and go away in 2022 sounds prophetic, as since the beginning of the month it has been hard to find financial assets that could gain in value. For the first 10 days of the month alone, the German Dax fell by about 4 percent, the U.S. Nasdaq 100 by 3.7 percent, the S&P 500 by 2.5 percent, and the DJIA by 1.5 percent. Silver has dipped by 4.5 percent, Meanwhile, since the beginning of the month, the U.S. dollar has gained 0.64 percent. The markets are therefore seeing a broad outflow into cash as part of the potential cash phase of the business cycle, which typically occurs before the bond phase, when these have reached the peak of their yields. This, in turn, may be related to the anticipation of interest rate hikes and a peak in inflation. Nevertheless, it can be added that today's financial market offers solutions that can allow trading both under the rise and also under the fall of financial asset prices, including cryptocurrencies. It is cryptocurrencies that may be the loudest again today, since the beginning of May brought a crash in this market. It is cryptocurrencies that may be the loudest again today, since the beginning of May brought a crash in this market. Tonight bitcoin was trading near of $29,000, which was the lowest value since the crash in May 2021. It is safe to say that history has repeated itself in May 2022, and the background seems very interesting. We are talking about the breaking of the stablecoin UST, which at one point was trading below $0.7. This in turn may have forced the release of bitcoin reserves, which were a hedge against a 1:1 UST to USD exchange rate and a massive supply of BTC tonight. The event was reminiscent of George Soros' breaking of the Bank of England or the release of the franc from the minimum exchange rate at 1.20 against the euro. Whether cryptocurrencies can recover from this remains an open question, as one of the stable coin foundations has been undermined Once again the financial market, this time in crypto, served up an event like we have never seen before and on a scale that has not been seen before. Whether cryptocurrencies can recover from this remains an open question, as one of the stable coin foundations has been undermined. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Gold Price Or FX - What's More Volatile Now? What's Ahead EURCHF And USDCHF After SNB Decision? Price Of Crude Oil Dropped. Awaiting Powell's (Fed) Testimony | Saxo Bank

US Dollar (USD) Starts To Skyrocket Beating The 20-Year High And Fed Isn't Going To Hold Back The DXY

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 09.05.2022 11:42
The dollar index rose above the 104-point level on Monday, reaching a new 20-year high, as expectations for further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation may continue to rise. One market measure of U.S. interest rate expectations, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, rose to 3.15 percent today, while market expectations based on the federal funds rate futures seem to point to the possibility of a peak in the hike cycle at 3.5-3.75 percent. Thus, the market may be close to fully discounting monetary policy tightening in this cycle, and this in turn may mean that space for any further strengthening of the USD may be shrinking. On the other hand, in addition to rising interest rates, global uncertainty still remains and the USD may be acting as a safe haven. There still seem to be concerns about the pace of global GDP growth, there could be a slowdown or stagflation. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the inflation outlook, Russia's war with Ukraine is ongoing, and there are still Covid restrictions in China. These factors may generate demand for the US dollar. It is worth recalling that last week the Fed raised the interest rate by 50 basis points, and the employment report reinforced expectations for another big hike. Investors are now waiting for inflation data to be released on Wednesday to gain insight into possible next steps by the US central bank. Futures markets are pricing a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the next Fed meeting in June and more than 200 basis points of tightening by the end of the year. Expectations for interest rate hikes also appear to be important for stock market indexes. The Nasdaq 100 is down more than 23 percent since the beginning of the year, which historically can correlate with a strong rise in inflation. Typically, as inflation rose, stock market indexes fell and reached their bottom when inflation peaked. Hence, Wednesday's data may be important from the perspective of stock market investors. Moreover, the peak in inflation may also cool expectations for larger hikes than currently expected, which could also weigh on the USD. While inflation has not yet peaked, the market trends observed since the beginning of the year may continue. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
U.S. labor market data adds to volatility before the weekend

U.S. labor market data adds to volatility before the weekend

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 06.05.2022 23:42
On Friday, May 6, the US Department of Labor released data on employment change in the United States. Investors may have been looking for confirmation from Federal Reserve officials that the US economy is in good shape.   The initial market consensus was for a change in employment in non-farm sectors of less than 400 thousand new jobs, which would be the lowest NFP reading this year. Meanwhile, the publication seems to have surprised on the positive side as the US economy added 428k new jobs in the previous month. The gain was widespread, with the largest increases in leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing.   The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent in April and the number of unemployed remained unchanged at 5.9 million. These rates are little different from the February 2020 values. (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), before the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19).   Thus, the U.S. economy already appears to be returning to full employment. What may be disappointing is the smaller increase in average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis, against market expectations of 0.4 percent. Wage growth may be important for high inflation. The lower it is, the real purchasing power of Americans may fall, and this may cause economic trouble by reducing consumption.   Financial markets seemed to react optimistically after the NFP publication. Contracts on the American index S&P 500 rose to the session maximum at 4157 points. However, a moment later the quotations seemed to fall below 4130 points. Yields on US 10-year bonds set another local peak, exceeding the level of 3.11%, which in turn may show that good data from the USA confirm the Fed's directions and may bring closer the rapid tightening of monetary policy. The market seems to be pricing in a peak of interest rate hikes in the region of 3.5-3.75 percent. Hence, with yields at 3.11 percent, the full discount of Fed actions may be close.   In such a situation, it is not out of the question that the US dollar or stock market indices may also be getting closer to certain inflection points. The U.S. dollar is at its most expensive in 22 years (USD index), while the Nasdaq 100 has already fallen 24 percent from its peak. The last time such a large correction, other than the Covid hit the financial markets when the Nasdaq 100 was down 32 percent, was in 2018. Back then, the index's decline was 24.69 percent.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Wall Street tumbled

Wall Street tumbled

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 06.05.2022 10:53
Stock markets saw strong declines the day after the Fed decision as investors may have concluded that the Fed will nonetheless fight inflation in a determined manner with the so-called wealth effect at its disposal.   Yesterday's sell-off on Wall Street could have been very impressive, as the indices fell at a rate we haven't seen in two years, mainly due to technology companies. The Dow index lost more than 1,000 points and the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 5 percent. - Both indexes posted their worst one-day declines since 2020. The S&P 500 Index also fell 3.56 percent, its second-worst day this year. Thursday's session erased Wednesday's strong gains after the Federal Reserve meeting. Technology stocks suffered the most: Tesla (-8.3 percent), Apple (-5.6 percent), Amazon (-7.6 percent), AMD (-5.6 percent) and Microsoft (-4.4 percent), where the outlook for earnings momentum may not be the best for the next few quarters.   The sharp decline in stocks and entire indexes may also be part of the fight against inflation through the so-called wealth effect. Americans, more than half of whom may have exposure to the stock market, may consume less as their savings melt down in the stock market. Thus, this can have a deflationary effect by reducing demand pressures, which appears to be an additional mechanism for fighting inflation. Previously, with the wealth effect, central banks may want to drive current consumption, because it is different to spend income when the value of savings rises rapidly and when it falls rapidly, even though current income is not affected.   Returning to the markets, one also can't help but notice that it wasn't just stocks that were cheapening. Bond and cryptocurrency prices also fell. The yield on 10-year US bonds beat the 3 percent level, and BTC fell below $36,000 at one point. It seems that once again capital was returning to the USD, as its index approached the level of 104 points, the highest since 2002. Nervousness in the markets, therefore, seems to persist, and this will be compounded by today's publication of data from the US labor market at 14:30. It seems that the times when bad data was good for the markets, as they waited for the Fed to help, are over. Now, bad data can be perceived negatively, and good data positively. The consensus is for a reading of 385k. What will be the NFP? That is what we will find out in a few hours and could be the event of the day.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Can GBP/USD Reach 1.24!? Will EUR/GBP Prove British Pound's Strength? It's Good To Diagnose EUR/CHF Performance This Week. Can DXY (US Dollar Index) Go Down?

US Dollar (USD) - Conotoxia: "A dovish hike in the US"

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 05.05.2022 12:55
The US Federal Reserve decided yesterday to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, from 0.25-0.5 percent to 0.75-1.00 percent. This was the first rate hike of this magnitude in 22 years. However, the markets did not react with panic, on the contrary. The US Federal Reserve, raising the target federal funds rate in May 2022, has already made the second increase in this cycle. Previously, it decided to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. Thus, in total, rates in the U.S. have already increased by 0.75 percentage points, which aims to combat soaring inflation. The central bank added that further increases would still be appropriate, but not by 75 bps. as some market participants had expected. Governor Powell hinted at 50 bps hikes at the next few meetings during the press conference. Thus, some market participants may have rejoiced at the fact that the Fed will not raise interest rates as sharply. The Fed will begin reducing assets on its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1. The plan will start with a monthly withdrawal of $30 billion from Treasury securities and $17.5 billion from mortgage-backed securities for 3 months, and then increase to a total of $95 billion per month. Here again, the market received a bit of a gift in not reducing the balance sheet immediately by $95 billion. On the economy, policymakers noted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and will likely weigh on economic activity. However, the Fed sees no reason to fear a recession. On the contrary, the US economy is strong enough that it no longer needs much support from loose monetary policy. The dovish interest rate hike may have pleased investors. The session on Wall Street was in the green, with the S&P 500 having its best session since May 2020 and the Dow Jones since November 2020. The US dollar, on the other hand, seemed to weaken after the Fed decision as US bond yields fell. However, the sustainability of yesterday's move in the markets remains an open question. Is the stock market's correction over? Or can the bull market return? Has the US dollar reached its peak? Here opinions may be divided. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 22, 2022

"A day with a Fed decision not seen in 22 years" - Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 04.05.2022 22:08
Today, the US Federal Reserve may announce a decision that has not been announced for 22 years. The Fed last raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in 2000. The topic of the scale and pace of interest rate increases in the world's biggest economy may be crucial tonight. There seems to be no doubt about whether the increases are appropriate, what remains uncertain is the scale of monetary tightening and the size of the rate hikes. Typically, the Fed has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but now high inflation may prompt faster and more decisive action. Therefore, it seems that today's possible move of 0.5 percentage points is the beginning of similar steps in the following months. According to the market, after today's hike, the federal funds rate may be in the range of 0.75-1.00 percent. At the end of the year, this range may amount to 3.00-3.25 percent. According to the market, at five meetings the Fed would raise interest rates by 225 basis points, which amounts to 45 points per meeting. The pace of hikes could drop sharply after that, as the market assumes that the range for the federal funds rate would be 3.50-3.75 percent as early as June 2023. If one assumes that the market is discounting the future, and that the yield on 10-year US bonds is close to 3 percent, then much of the interest rate hike could already be in the prices and bonds and the US dollar. On Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen 20 percent from the beginning of the year to early May, the monetary tightening cycle may also already be somewhat embedded in stock prices However, if the Fed decides to take more hawkish steps, the level of valuation by the markets could shift. Hence, today investors may wait with bated breath for the announcement of the decision and the communiqué published at 8 p.m. Then, at 8:30 p.m. they will be able to listen to the conference of Jerome Powell, head of the Fed, to find out what further moves may be made by the world's most important central bank.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Has Macron-Biden Conversation Caused The Rally Of Crude Oil Price?

Crash Or Rally!? Answer Wanted! What Fed (Federal Reserve) Is Going To Do With The Inflation And Interest Rate? #Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 03.05.2022 00:13
On Wednesday, 4 May, the US Federal Reserve will make a decision on interest rates. The market consensus is that the hike could be as much as 0.5 percentage points, which could be the largest interest rate increase in 22 years. Stocks or cryptocurrencies became more expensive, and the bond market could have continued to pump the bubble. Financial markets have long been getting used to the idea that the US dollar could become more expensive and harder to access. During the financial crisis and during the pandemic, dollars were not in short supply. Presumably, anyone who wanted to borrow dollars could do so, and on very favorable terms. Financing transactions with dollars could have been easy, fast, and cheap. It seems that with the growth of the monetary base and the ease of raising dollars and social transfers during the pandemic, many markets could have benefited. Stocks or cryptocurrencies became more expensive, and the bond market could have continued to pump the bubble. During the pandemic, investors could buy all sorts of assets with the easily accessible dollar. A change in the Fed's approach could mean that the USD could attract money like a magnet. If its interest rate rises to 3 or 3.5 percent at the end of the hike cycle, as the market now seems to be pricing it, there could be more people willing to hold USD deposits or US bonds than before. During the pandemic, investors could buy all sorts of assets with the easily accessible dollar. Currently, they can sell them, returning to USD and counting on its higher interest rate. Bitcoin is down 16.5 percent since the beginning of the year, ETH is down 23 percent, and the Fed has yet to begin a real and aggressive hiking cycle From the beginning of the year to today, the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen more than 20 percent, 30-year U.S. bonds have lost nearly 13 percent of their value, the S&P 500 index has lost 12 percent, and 10-year U.S. bonds are nearly 9 percent cheaper than they were in early January. Bitcoin is down 16.5 percent since the beginning of the year, ETH is down 23 percent, and the Fed has yet to begin a real and aggressive hiking cycle. From this perspective, one may wonder to what extent the markets have already priced in a US interest rate hike. Thus, to what extent the mentioned declines in various asset classes and the strengthening of the USD are already in the prices. Can the market classically discount the future six months ahead, and will the Fed meeting be like the stock market adage - buy the rumor, sell the fact? We will find out on Wednesday evening. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Poland’s central bank raises rates by another 75 basis points

It's Over! US Dollar (USD) Has Reached The Highest Level Since 2002! Now It's Time For Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP) And JPY To Recover, Otherwise...

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 29.04.2022 10:34
The title statement may be indicated by what happened yesterday on the US dollar index, when its quotations reached the highest level since 2002. The strength of the dollar in recent times has been tremendous. The Swiss franc weakened by about 6 per cent in this period, while the New Zealand dollar fell by about 4.7 per cent Among the world's major currencies, there is currently no other that would gain the US dollar from the beginning of the year. The Japanese yen, the leader in depreciation, has lost more than 11 percent against the U.S. dollar in that time, followed by the British pound and the euro with losses of about 7.4 percent from January to the end of April. The Swiss franc weakened by about 6 per cent in this period, while the New Zealand dollar fell by about 4.7 per cent. It seems that the Australian and Canadian dollars could lose the least to the USD, thanks to the increase in commodity prices. Here, declines may amount to 1.6 and 0.8 percent, respectively, since the beginning of the year. Read next: How Much Will Swedish Krone (SEK) Gain!? Bank Of Sweden Surprised With The Reference Rate Hike | FXMAG.COM Currently, the market seems to value the federal funds rate at the end of the year at 2.75-3.0 per cent Geopolitical uncertainty, fear among some market participants, chances for quick rate hikes in the USA, these could have been the factors that pushed the USD index to the levels of 2002. Currently, the market seems to value the federal funds rate at the end of the year at 2.75-3.0 per cent. Today, the level is 0.25-0.5 per cent. Expectations based on fed funds futures are for a 50 basis point hike in May, a 75 basis point hike in June, 50 basis points in July, 25 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December. We will find out on 4 May after the Fed's decision on interest rates If such a scenario were realized, it would be a huge rate hike in the cost of money in the U.S. and this could become a subject of discussion. As for the necessity of interest rate increases, it seems thatit is difficult to find arguments against here, while the question whether too fast action will not be harmful to the economy remains open. We will find out on 4 May after the Fed's decision on interest rates. Read next: Oh No! EUR/USD Hit 5-Year-Low! Probably Euro Is Not That Week, But US Dollar... Oh My It's A Monster!| FXMAG.COM For the US dollar it may also be a kind of test, because it should be remembered that in the markets it is often possible to buy rumours and sell facts, and the 20-year levels of the USD before the start of the real cycle of interest rate rises in the USA may indicate buying those rumours. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Strong SEK after unexpected Riksbank decision

How Much Will Swedish Krone (SEK) Gain!? Bank Of Sweden Surprised With The Reference Rate Hike

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 28.04.2022 16:27
Today, the Bank of Sweden unexpectedly raised the reference rate from 0 to 0.25%. The market did not expect any changes at this point, which may have surprised some investors. As a result, the Swedish krona (SEK) gained about 1 percent against the euro. The central bank's board also decided to immediately stop buying T-bills and reduce the pace of asset purchases in the second half of the year Sveriges Riksbank also signaled the possibility of further increases this year. The central bank's board also decided to immediately stop buying T-bills and reduce the pace of asset purchases in the second half of the year. These decisions could mark a sharp turnaround from the bank's guidance from the previous meeting. It would be aimed at countering soaring inflation and preventing higher prices from becoming entrenched in the economy. The bank's board cited on increased uncertainty in the global economy in the wake of Russia's assault on Ukraine and the return of tight covid restrictions in China. Annual inflation in Sweden rose to 6 percent in March, above expectations and the highest in more than three decades. With monetary policy tightening, the Riksbank expects inflation to fall in 2023 and approach 2 percent in 2024. The EUR/SEK exchange rate thus fell from 10.37 to 10.25 The market's reaction seems to be rather abrupt, as in the first moment after the Riksbank's decision the Swedish krona strengthened by around 1 percent against the euro. The EUR/SEK exchange rate thus fell from 10.37 to 10.25. In turn, the USD/SEK exchange rate fell from 9.85 to 9.70. Earlier, the Swedish krona was losing ground to the US dollar. As recently as January, the USD cost SEK 8.20, and in March the SEK 10.00 level was crossed. The impact on the Swedish krona may be significant, hence the USD/SEK or EUR/SEK pairs may draw the attention of some investors The Bank of Sweden therefore appears to be joining the ranks of hawkish global central banks, and its determination to act may be strong. As a result, the impact on the Swedish krona may be significant, hence the USD/SEK or EUR/SEK pairs may draw the attention of some investors. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FX: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 27 (analysis of morning deals). The sellers of the pound are back in business.

Oh No! EUR/USD Hit 5-Year-Low! Probably Euro Is Not That Week, But US Dollar... Oh My It's A Monster!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 27.04.2022 15:36
The common currency does not seem to have a very successful time behind it. Only since the beginning of the year to the US dollar, the euro could lose almost 7%, and today we can observe the lowest EUR/USD exchange rate since 2017. Russia has stopped the flow of gas to Poland and Bulgaria and said it will remain cut off until those countries agree to pay in rubles The euro weakened to $1.065 and could be at its lowest level since April 2017. It seems that the Euro may be weakened by growth concerns and risks related to energy supplies from Russia. Russia has stopped the flow of gas to Poland and Bulgaria and said it will remain cut off until those countries agree to pay in rubles. Read next: Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!| FXMAG.COM The latest data also showed that consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy fell to a record low (the GfK consumer climate index in Germany fell to -26.5 by the end of April). Risk sentiment remains shaken by the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and policy tightening by central banks, which could translate into slowing global growth. French President Macron was re-elected with over 58% of the vote Money markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by half a point at its next two meetings and the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in July in an effort to tame inflation, which is currently hitting record levels in Europe and 40-year highs in the U.S. Meanwhile, incumbent French President Macron was re-elected with over 58% of the vote. His rival Marine Le Pen received over 41% of the vote, the highest share of the far-right in an election to date, which could also be a bit of a risk going forward for Europe. Read next: US Yields Have Declined! Gold Price (XAUUSD) Is Back In The Game! Gold Trades Near $1900, COVID In China Leave Investors Unsure| FXMAG.COM A weakening Eurozone currency could have the effect of importing inflation Later in the day, the market may still be waiting for Christine Lagarde's speech from the European Central Bank, which could also have a potential impact on the Euro. A weakening Eurozone currency could have the effect of importing inflation, which could make it harder to fight rising prices, so the market may be wondering to what level the EUR can still lose before the ECB intervenes. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
US inflation has peaked, but it will be a long slow descent | ING Economics

US Yields Have Declined! Gold Price (XAUUSD) Is Back In The Game! Gold Trades Near $1900, COVID In China Leave Investors Unsure

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 26.04.2022 10:25
The price of gold appears to be back above $1,900 per ounce on Tuesday, after a 3-day decline. The rise seems to have taken place with a slight weakening of the US dollar and a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which may have made bullion more attractive. Investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city The U.S. dollar appears to have retreated today from a two-year high reached during the previous session, while the 10-year bond yield may have fallen from a three-year high, retreating to around 2.8 percent. Given the growing uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth, the market may be gauging the Federal Reserve's willingness to tighten monetary policy quickly. Additionally, investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city, raising fears of a shutdown of the capital. In addition, Russia told the world not to underestimate the significant risk of nuclear war, which it says it wants to reduce, and warned that conventional Western weapons are a target in Ukraine. Gold can be seen as a store of value during economic and political crises. Read next: Conotoxia - Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!| FXMAG.COM European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC Meanwhile, in the oil market, WTI crude futures appear to have risen to around $99.5 a barrel on Tuesday, after a two-day decline that took prices below $100. However, the supply situation appears to remain tight. There is still a risk that the EU could join the U.S. and U.K. in banning Russian oil imports as the war in Ukraine continues. European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC, while Asian refiners have given up on Russian oil because of sanctions imposed on the company that carries the cargoes. As a result, the world on the one hand may be reducing oil demand by the prospect of weaker economic growth and lower demand from China due to the epidemic. On the other hand, there are still chances of reduced oil supply in Europe due to war and sanctions, which may put upward pressure on production. Thus, the price of WTI crude oil, due to the opposing factors, may remain in a consolidation of $92-114. Read next: Conotoxia - (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Markets find balance ahead of fresh economic data and speeches from Lagarde and Powell (expect a local increase in EUR/USD and a decease in USD/CAD)  | InstaForex

Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 25.04.2022 13:42
Financial markets are likely beginning to ride a wave of fear that interest rates will be raised quickly, which could increase borrowing costs and could make it more expensive to raise dollars. Already last week, especially on Friday, the situation in the financial markets seemed very tense The downward wave seems to be sweeping through both the stock, commodity and cryptocurrency markets all at the same time. It's been a long time since we've seen every asset class inflicted with a single day of losses, except for the US dollar and US bonds. Already last week, especially on Friday, the situation in the financial markets seemed very tense. U.S. stock indexes seemed to be falling by nearly 3 percent, and today we could see a potential continuation of this downward wave. Before noon, contracts in the United States seem to have lost about 1 percent. Meanwhile, in Europe, the scale of falls seems to be greater, as the German DAX falls by almost 2 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50 by more than 2.5 percent. Read next (by Conotoxia): (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is down almost 5 percent today, to around $97 Declines in stock prices may also be accompanied by declines in commodity prices. The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is down almost 5 percent today, to around $97. As a result, the price may reach its lowest level in nearly two weeks amid growing concerns that prolonged restrictions in China and sharp interest rate hikes in the U.S. will have a negative impact on global economic growth and fuel demand. Monday's declines extended last week's decline in U.S. crude as demand concerns outweighed worries about limited global supply. Demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in China in April is expected to fall 20 percent year-on-year, Bloomberg reported, equivalent to a drop in oil consumption of about 1.2 million barrels a day. On top of that, fears of a global economic slowdown or stagflation could also weigh on oil prices. The EUR/USD exchange rate could thus fall to levels last seen in March 2020, approaching 1.07 With high expectations for Fed action, the US dollar seems to be gaining in value. The EUR/USD exchange rate could thus fall to levels last seen in March 2020, approaching 1.07. The entire US Dollar Index could remain above the 100-point level. Read next (by Conotoxia): How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?| FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The sectors most affected by soaring energy prices | ING Economics

(USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.04.2022 12:02
The Dollar Index appears to have risen on Friday to its highest level since July 2020 as expectations rise for a rapid tightening of monetary policy in the US both this spring and summer. Learn more on Conotoxia.com Speaking Thursday at a panel organized by the IMF, the Fed chairman said the central bank is committed to raising interest rates quickly to bring inflation down Investors may have heard hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday, who suggested more aggressive rate hikes in the future. Speaking Thursday at a panel organized by the IMF, the Fed chairman said the central bank is committed to raising interest rates quickly to bring inflation down, and added that a 50 basis point rate hike is still on the table for May. Powell pointed out that aside from damaging inflation, the U.S. economy is very strong and the labor market is in good shape. The dollar index seems to have gained for the third week in a row. Powell's speech was followed by opinions from various institutions on how further monetary policy in the US may shape up. Among them, Nomura points to the possibility of hikes of as much as 75 basis points both in June and July. This seems to be one of the bigger predictions for Fed action. Read Next: How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?| FXMAG.COM UK consumer morale was the weakest since 2008 In addition to the strength of the US dollar, today on the currency market we may also observe the relative weakness of the British pound. Macroeconomic data from the UK may have contributed to the GBP depreciation. Retail sales in the UK fell by 1.4 percent in March 2022, which seems to be much worse than market forecasts of a 0.3 percent decline. The data suggests that consumers may be spending less due to rising prices. Additionally, UK consumer morale was the weakest since 2008. The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK fell to -38 points in April 2022, the lowest level since July 2008. As a consequence of the above events, the GBP/USD pair price could fall by almost 1% today, to the lowest level since the end of 2020. Yesterday the pair was quoted at the area of 1.3030, and fall today to the region of 1.2900. The market can still wait for the speeches of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later today. Read Next: Record-Breaking US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Turbo-accelerated Dollar Index (DXY) Makes Not So Strony JPY Plunge Against The Greenback | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year, the yen seems to have lost about 10 percent against the US dollar Among the world's major currencies, it is also impossible not to pay attention to the recent weakness of the Japanese yen, which is trying to stabilize under the level of 130.00 on the USD/JPY pair. The talks between the Japanese and American sides on taking joint steps to slow down such rapid changes in the exchange rate could help in this process. A meeting was to be held between the Japanese Finance Minister and the US Treasury Secretary on this matter. Since the beginning of the year, the yen seems to have lost about 10 percent against the US dollar. Read Next: Fed Vs. ECB! Market Shocker Is Here! EUR/USD Plunged! (EUR) Shows Its Strength Amid ECB Rhetoric| FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
US Stocks: S&P 500 (-2.01%), Nasdaq (-2.98%) And Dow Jones (DJI) (-1.58%) Decreased. Japan: Nikkei 225 Has Gone Down

How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 20.04.2022 21:46
Last year alone, the number of investors in the cryptocurrency market may have increased by nearly 70 percent. - This is according to the "2022 Global State of Crypto Report" published by Gemini Exchange. The report was created after surveying 29,293 adults in 20 countries. The age of the respondents ranged from 18-75, and the survey was limited to those earning more than $14,000 per year. The report helps understand the global adoption of cryptocurrencies among retail investors. It shows that 41 percent of those surveyed made their first investment in cryptocurrencies in the past year, and overall, the total number of investors has increased by about 70 percent in 2021 alone. Key excerpts from the report: More than half of cryptocurrency owners in Brazil (51 percent), Hong Kong (51 percent) and India (54 percent) started in 2021. Among high-income respondents in developed countries, cryptocurrency ownership is trending upward, with 40 percent or more in the United Kingdom, Germany and France reporting cryptocurrency ownership. Regulation is causing concern around the world. Among those who do not own cryptocurrencies, 39 percent in Asia Pacific, 37 percent in Latin America and 36 percent in Europe say there is regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies. Inflation drives adoption Another important finding is that inflation appears to be a key driver of investor adoption. One reason to pay attention to the Gemini survey is that it asked questions about inflation. The report highlights that countries that have recently experienced hyperinflation tend to agree with the statement "cryptocurrencies are the future of money." Respondents from countries that experienced a 50 percent or higher devaluation of their currency against the U.S. dollar over the past 10 years were more than 5 times more likely to say they plan to purchase cryptocurrencies in the coming year than respondents from countries that experienced currency devaluations of less than 50 percent, including South Africa, Mexico, India and Brazil. In the latter country, where the local currency has been devalued by more than 200 percent against the U.S. dollar, 41 percent of respondents own cryptocurrencies. In the U.S., 40 percent of cryptocurrency holders see them as a hedge against inflation. If inflation continues to be an issue around the world, it seems likely that this trend could increase In general, the higher a country's inflation rate, the higher the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies can be. If inflation continues to be an issue around the world, it seems likely that this trend could increase. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

Record-Breaking US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Turbo-accelerated Dollar Index (DXY) Makes Not So Strony JPY Plunge Against The Greenback

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 19.04.2022 21:27
The dollar index reached 101 points on Tuesday for the first time since March 2020, which may be influenced by rising U.S. Treasury bond yields. Investors appear to be awaiting a series of half-point interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it tries to rein in rising inflation. James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed chairman known for his hawkish views, said Monday that U.S. inflation is far too high, reiterating his case for raising interest rates to 3.5 percent by the end of the year. Will the Fed accelerate interest rate hikes? Last month, the Fed raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points, and forecasts released at the time indicated that interest rates could rise to 1.9 percent by the end of the year. Bullard's preferred path would require rate hikes of half a percentage point at all six remaining Fed meetings this year. James Bullard's remarks also included a statement that interest rates could rise by 75 basis points to accelerate the entire monetary tightening cycle. Article on Crypto: Binance Academy: Immutable X Token (IMX) - What Is It? IMX Explained. How To Buy IMX?| FXMAG.COM From a monetary policy perspective, there may be a strong divergence between the actions of the Fed and the rest of the central banks, including the Bank of Japan. This in turn may translate into currency rates, including the USD/JPY pair, which is trading at 128 yen per dollar. Weakness of the yen beneficial for exporters Since the beginning of the year, the yen may have lost 10 percent against the U.S. dollar, and more than 5 percent in April alone. In this situation, as calculated by Bloomberg, the yen seems to have lost the most against the dollar since 1971. A weak yen theoretically can help the Japanese economy raise the inflation rate due to more expensive imports of products from abroad. It can support Japanese manufacturers who export their goods, potentially making them more competitive. Thus, for Japan, the current situation may be quite comfortable. Only inflation getting out of control would be an undesirable phenomenon. SNB limits the appreciation of the Franc The USD/CHF exchange rate recorded 12-month highs as the pair may be under pressure from a strong dollar despite potential interventions by the Swiss Bank. Current deposits at the SNB increased by CHF 2.2 billion in the week ending April 8 from the previous week, following an increase of CHF 5.7 billion in the previous week. Article on Crypto: Altcoins Showing Promising Growth - Take a Look at Solana (SOL), POLKADOT (DOT) and SHIBA INU (SHIB-USD)| FXMAG.COM The rise in deposits is widely seen as an indicator of the central bank's foreign exchange interventions dictating the amount of credit added to the sight accounts of commercial banks that hold freshly created francs in exchange for foreign currency. At its last meeting, the SNB stressed that it would limit the appreciation of the franc, which is near a 7-year high against the euro. This level was reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Record low consumer sentiment and lower stock prices

Fed Vs. ECB! Market Shocker Is Here! EUR/USD Plunged! (EUR) Shows Its Strength Amid ECB Rhetoric

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 15.04.2022 14:51
Summary: After yesterday's press conference by Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, the exchange rate of the main currency pair EUR/USD fell below the level of 1.08 The pressure on the single currency may continue until the second round of the French elections The market is currently pricing two consecutive 50-basis-point rate hikes in the United States After yesterday's press conference by Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, the exchange rate of the main currency pair EUR/USD fell below the level of 1.08 for the first time since May 2020. Investors may have felt let down by the ECB's attitude. Prior to the April meeting of the bank's policymakers, the market priced that interest rates in the Eurozone would rise by 70 basis points this year. After yesterday's announcement and the press conference of the head of the ECB, the valuation dropped to 60 points. Related article: DAX, EUR/GBP And EUR/USD Recovered Thanks To ECB Interest Rate Decision!? European Central Bank Makes European Indices Gain The ECB is reluctant to... The ECB's statement implies that interest rate adjustments in the euro area will be gradual and will start "some time after" the end of the APP net asset purchase program, which is expected in Q3 this year. The fall of the euro and investor sentiment may also be affected by the war unleashed by Russia, rising commodity prices, concerns about slowing economic growth, as well as doubts about the outcome of the presidential elections in France. In the first round, the current President Emmanuel Macron won, but the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen came in second with a small loss and a chance to win the presidential seat in the second round on 24 April. EUR/USD: the specter of the 1.00 level All of the above factors may have contributed to EUR/USD falling back towards 1.080 during Thursday's session in an attempt to rebound on Friday. The pressure on the single currency may continue until the second round of the French elections, and if Le Pen wins it could push EUR/USD to the 1.0000 level. The war in Ukraine could makes Europe more vulnerable to economic slowdown than the US, which may also leave its mark on the major currency pair. Another asset of the dollar here seems to be the tendency of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster. The market is currently pricing two consecutive 50-basis-point rate hikes in the United States, which may keep the divergence in monetary policy high and translate into EUR/USD exchange rate. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Can GBP/USD Reach 1.24!? Will EUR/GBP Prove British Pound's Strength? It's Good To Diagnose EUR/CHF Performance This Week. Can DXY (US Dollar Index) Go Down?

(US Dollar) USD/JPY (Japanese Yen) Hits 20-Year-Low!? Japanese Currency Is Quite Weak. What Will Bank Of Japan Do?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 13.04.2022 15:50
The USD/JPY reaching 126 yen this morning means that the Japanese currency appears to be at its weakest against the US in nearly 20 years. The reason? The Bank of Japan's commitment to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy may contrast with the actions of the world's other major central banks, which appear to be normalizing monetary policy. Yen falls, bank doesn't intend to react Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's finance minister, declined to comment Tuesday on specific rates in currency markets. He said the government is keeping a close eye on the yen's trading and that excessive volatility in the exchange rate could have a negative impact on the economy and financial stability. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly intervened to keep bond yields near zero. Recently, however, Shunichi Suzuki has cooled hopes for any government intervention in the currency markets, saying the central bank does not deal with exchange rates. Since the beginning of the year, the yen appears to be the weakest among the world's major currencies and may be losing more than 8 percent to the USD. Since the beginning of April alone, JPY depreciation against the USD may have reached 3.5 percent. Learn more on Conotoxia.com Inflation 8.5 percent - rates are going up In the United States, after the inflation reading, which rose to 8.5 percent in March, the US dollar appears relatively strong, and the exchange rate of the main currency pair remains in the region of 1.08. The market may expect the Fed to decide on two consecutive interest rate hikes of 50 basis points in response to the rise in prices. Such a move is priced today with over 80 percent probability, and the next decision will come as early as May 4. Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! Oil: demand in China falls, demand in USA rises Increased volatility may arise on the oil market. The futures contract for WTI crude oil rose to around $100 per barrel today, falling from the session high at $102. Data from China's customs office showed that crude imports into the world's largest crude consumer fell for the second month in a row. That's likely because further restrictions due to coronavirus have reduced demand. Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, saw its biggest monthly drop in machinery orders in February in nearly two years. Fears persist that supplies could become even tighter because of the war in eastern Europe. OPEC has already warned that it will not be able to replace potential supply losses from Russia. At the same time, there could be strong demand for fuel in the U.S., where gasoline and distillate stocks fell by more than 5 million barrels last week. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.