Alex Kuptsikevich

Alex Kuptsikevich

Financial market professional with 16-years' experience and Senior financial analyst at FxPro. Author of daily reviews on the impact of economic events with comments regularly featured in top international and Russian media. Covers fundamental analysis, global markets, foreign exchange market, gold, oil, cryptocurrencies.

Alex Kuptsikevich is a regular contributor to both digital and print media including CNBC, Forbes, Reuters, MarketWatch, BBC and Coindesk.

JPMorgan says miners are exacerbating the bearish trend

Extreme Fear Is Still Here! Bitcoin News: BTC/USD Decreased By 3.1%. Ethereum Has Gone Down By 3.1%, Shiba Inu Decreased By 6.9%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.06.2022 10:01
Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Tuesday, ending the day around $20.3K, where it is consolidating on Wednesday morning. Ethereum has lost 3.1% in the past 24 hours, leading other altcoins down 1.9% (Cardano) to 6.9% (Shiba Inu). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 2% overnight to $911bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained at 42.5%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 3 points to 13 by Wednesday and remains in a state of “extreme fear”. Bitcoin declined on Tuesday following the US market, where the bears reigned the upper hand again, taking more than 3% from the Nasdaq index. The local technical picture is rather worrying. The recent bounce might have been enough to consolidate the bearish forces before a new attack. Traders should be ready for the new test of lows at 18K before the end of this week if moods on financial markets don’t reverse. According to CoinShares, capital outflows from crypto funds last week amounted to the all-time high at $423 million, with almost all funds withdrawn coming from bitcoin-based products. The driver was the launch of ProShares’ first US bitcoin inverse ETF, which allowed investors to open short positions in the cryptocurrency. Simply put, the institutions that have been such a significant driver of Bitcoin and Ether’s growth in the previous couple of years are now selling off these assets, putting additional pressure on the entire market. What the crypto market lacks currently is long-term institutional HODLers, Bank of America said concerns about the crypto winter had not cooled investor interest in the industry. SEC chairman Gary Gensler clarified his stance on bitcoin in an interview with CNBC, calling it a commodity. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said it would allow politicians and governments to support bitcoin as a technology and digital asset. According to a Mastercard survey, in Latin America, 51% of the payment system’s card users have bought cryptocurrencies. About a third of respondents invested in stable coins. Investments in NFT and DeFi projects are pretty popular.
Can Market Crash Last Over A Year!? Bitcoin Has Decreased. Dogecoin (DOGE) And ETH/USD Went Down

Can Market Crash Last Over A Year!? Bitcoin Has Decreased. Dogecoin (DOGE) And ETH/USD Went Down

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.06.2022 11:28
Bitcoin has lost 1.9% in the past 24 hours, trading near $20.8K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum lost 2.3% to $1190, while other leading altcoins fell from 1.4% (BNB) to 6.5% (Dogecoin). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 1.8% overnight to $933bn. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 2 points to 10 by Tuesday and remains in “extreme fear” mode. Bitcoin was down on Monday, echoing the behaviour of the US stock indices. However, the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, showed a much sharper rebound last week. The BTCUSD remains under its simple 200-week moving average. It needs a meaningful fundamental driver, which is not yet easy to find and overcome. The inability to find a point for a quick recovery makes the current cycle like the previous two in 2014 and 2018, when the decline lasted a year, after which we saw about a year of sluggish momentum with a slight noticeable upward bias. If we do see a repeat of this pattern, the pressure on the first cryptocurrency and following it, the whole market could continue until the end of the year, and there is no point in rushing to buy right now in the hope of a V-shaped rebound. Bitcoin is experiencing the worst bearish trend in its history, Glassnode believes, and most investors are selling the coin at a loss. According to Bloomberg, the collapse of BTC put mining companies’ loans worth $4 billion at risk of default. BTC miners are now selling it and bucking the bearish trend: they have sold 20% of their volumes in the past two months. Their selling may continue in the third quarter if market conditions don’t improve, JPMorgan believes. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes the recession in the crypto market will last 18 months. Adverse market conditions will test crypto exchanges, and some may go bust, Kaiko admits. A growing number of cryptocurrency hedge funds are selling the US dollar-linked stablecoin Tether (USDT) amid the gloomy outlook for the crypto market. According to CoinGecko, Tether’s market capitalisation has fallen by more than $20 billion since mid-May. The Bank for International Settlements published a report on several central banks’ experiments with digital currencies and concluded that the future of cross-border payments lies with state-owned Stablecoins.
G7’s ban on Russian gold may not stop its drop

G7’s ban on Russian gold may not stop its drop

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.06.2022 13:12
G7 countries are discussing refusing to import gold from Russia - another attempt to limit the country’s export earnings. However, this news is more about headlines than the potential to become an actual market mover.The price of the troy ounce rose by $12 to $1838 on Monday’s open and changed a little since. The 0.6% increase shows that commodity buyers are not so concerned about commodity shortages.The G7 countries and most major economies in the EU have not been buying Russian gold for many months, so the announced measures will have little effect on current demand but will only document the status quo.As with oil, we may see a temporary and time-limited supply shock due to a change in logistics, but not a loss in the share of gold that Russia supplies to the world market. However, gold was already winning back this shock at the beginning of March.Potentially, this is good news for mining companies outside of Russia, as the competitiveness of their products in developed markets will be further enhanced.It is worth paying attention to how Newmont, Barrick Gold or ETF funds that include gold or silver producers will trade. If we do not see a rise in prices or a surge in volumes today, we should not expect this news to affect the market any further.A glance at the gold chart from the tech analysis side is not bullish just yet, either. Gold is traded under the 200 SMA, and it has not been able to break out of this line for the last month and a half. Meanwhile, the 50-day average is moving towards the 200-day, promising a death cross early next month. In the last two periods (February and August 2021), gold has lost about 7% after the occurrence of this bearish signal. It is well worth expecting that this time too, we only see a consolidation before another round of declines into the $1730 area before the end of September.
(BTC) Bitcoin – Sinking fast | Oanda

Is Owning Altcoins (ETH, Cardano) Instead Of Bitcoin (BTC) A Better Option!? BTC Dominance Decreased!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.06.2022 12:15
Bitcoin gained 3.8% over the past week, ending around $21.4K, dropping slightly to $21.2K on Monday morning. Ethereum added 9.4%, while other top-ten altcoins gained between 4.6% (Cardano) and 19.3% (Dogecoin). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 8% over the week to $952bn. The Bitcoin Dominance Index slipped 0.9 points to 43.4% over the same period due to the outperforming recovery of altcoins. Cryptocurrency Fear And Greed Index The cryptocurrency fear and greed index went up to 12 points by Monday, from 9 a week earlier, but remained in the extreme fear zone. Bitcoin has risen above 20K in the past week, although its recovery has been more subdued than the stock market. This performance of the first cryptocurrency may indicate that investors continue to sell off the first cryptocurrency on the rise, moving into altcoins. Crypto Market Capitalisation In the coming days or weeks, the important thing will be the performance of the crypto market capitalisation without BTC. Temporarily dipping below 2018 highs near $500B, the Crypto cap ex-BTC is showing a solid rebound, much more active than BTCUSD. However, it remains to be seen how sustainable this bounce will be. CNBC broadcaster and author of the famous Mad Money programme, Jim Cramer, believes that bitcoin will be able to partially recoup its June losses in the coming months. However, aggressive long-term growth is unlikely. According to him, the rebound before another fall will provide good opportunities to sell previously bought assets. Gary Gensler, head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is pushing for a single set of rules for cryptocurrencies that would bring together all regulators and strengthen industry regulation. Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson told the US Congress that the SEC and CFTC would not be able to handle oversight of the cryptocurrency industry. In his view, it could self-regulate along the lines of the banking industry. According to a Paxos survey of regular physical gold buyers, nearly one-third of respondents see bitcoin as a better alternative to that precious metal.
Bitcoin’s performance points to a weak risk appetite

Bitcoin’s performance points to a weak risk appetite

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.06.2022 09:26
Bitcoin rose 2.9% in the past 24 hours to $20.9K. Ethereum added 5.5% to $1140, while the top 10 altcoins growth ranged from 1.1% (Doge) to 11.5% (XRP).Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 3.1% to $929bn over 24 hours. Bitcoin’s dominance index lost 0.2 points to 42.9%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remained at 11 points (“extreme fear”) for the third day.Bitcoin rebounded from the previous day’s decline on Thursday amid rising US stock indices. The first cryptocurrency has not yet managed to advance above $21K. Markets must guess whether we see crypto market weakness compared to equities or whether BTC works as a leading indicator, indicating that the rebound in equities is false.Famous investor Mark Mobius called bitcoin a leading indicator of stock market sentiment. In his view, now is the time to buy stocks as bitcoin investors are still talking about buying it on the downside.China’s Economic Daily warned local investors that in the future, when market confidence collapses or when sovereign countries declare BTC illegal, it will return to its original value, which is zero.Changpeng Zhao, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, believes that after the current collapse, bitcoin may not surpass its previous high of $69,000 until 2024. Crypto winter could last until the next bitcoin halving in 2024, the “Dvision Network” believes.According to KPMG, institutional investors show significant interest in asset tokenisation, NFTs and meta-currencies. Citibank and Switzerland-based METACO are launching a storage service for cryptocurrencies amid the growing digitalisation of traditional investment assets.
Markets fell back to key support levels, looking for new lows

Markets fell back to key support levels, looking for new lows

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.06.2022 13:27
The stock market failed to remain positive for the day, closing Wednesday with a slight decline. Stocks, commodities, and currencies dynamics since the start of the day on Thursday indicate the potential for further downside.Investors are getting more signs of economic contraction, which increases the chance of a recession in the coming months. Among the commodities, we note a spike in cotton and a fall in copper. Copper, sensitive to production cycles, has lost 15% in the last two and a half weeks, falling back to its lowest level since February 2021.Cotton, which has a tight correlation with consumer activity cycles, is trading down about 30% from its peak in early May, 22% of which has been down from early June. The fall accelerated two days ago when the price dipped below its 200-day moving average, underscoring the serious intentions of the sellers.The German DAX40 is again testing the support at 13,000 as the bounce on Friday and Monday proved unsustainable. The FTSE100, meanwhile, is back near the 7000 level, also returning to significant technical and psychological support.The US index futures also showed a loss of recovery momentum on Thursday.At the same time, the currency market is showing a pull into defensive instruments. USDJPY pulled back to 135.35 after touching 136.70 earlier in the week. That said, the dollar is doing better than most developed country competitors today. The euro is trading below $1.05 again after a failed attempt to bounce above $1.06 during Wednesday’s trading. Once again, the bears took the upper hand on EURUSD’s approach to the 50-day moving average. AUDUSD is trading at 0.6880 for the third time in the last two months. A move lower would take the Aussie back to where it last changed hands in July 2020, and it is not helped by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the 50-point rate twice, in July and August.Recent dynamics in various markets indicate that the reduced demand for risky assets comes from a broad front. Some markets are close to their red lines, which could accelerate the sell-off and return volatility to levels of the previous couple of weeks
Bitcoin may be near the bottom but not yet ready to rise

Bitcoin may be near the bottom but not yet ready to rise

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.06.2022 10:28
The tug of war in Bitcoin near the psychologically important $20K continues. After losing 4.7% to $19.9K on Wednesday, the first cryptocurrency returned to $20.4K on Thursday morning. Ethereum is down 1.2% to $1085 in 24 hours, with the top 10 altcoins trending from a 2% drop (Tron) to a 3% rise (Solana).Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, was unchanged overnight, remaining at $900bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.4 points to 43.1%.]By Thursday, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index stood at 11 points (“extreme fear”).Ian Harnett, a co-founder of Absolute Strategy Research, has suggested that bitcoin will collapse to $13K this year, as it is characterised by a drop of 80% from the historic highs it reached.Arcane Research noted that in 2013 and 2017, BTC fell 85% and 84%. If history repeats, bitcoin’s downside potential persists to the $10,350 mark.However, we note that in previous bullish cycles, the strengthening of BTCUSD has been many times stronger. For example, in 2013, it was more than 90 times. In 2017, it was 20 times, while in a year-long growth cycle through the highs of 2021, we saw “only” a tenfold increase in price. In our view, it is much more reliable to estimate that Bitcoin finds a long-term bottom near the highs of the previous 4-year cycle, where the first cryptocurrency has already rolled back. Even so, it may not be the best time to buy, as it may take considerable time before the crypto market digests the recent turmoil and enters a new phase of sustained demand from broad segments of investors, not just stressed asset hunters.The ECB chief has called for regulating the cryptocurrency lending sector amid growing activity on crypto lending platforms and problems with Celsius and Finblox.SEC Commissioner Esther Pearce believes that a bearish crypto market would benefit the industry and create a more sustainable foundation for its development.Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that he has never encouraged anyone to invest in cryptocurrencies and all accusations of him promoting a “Dogecoin pyramid scheme” are unfounded. Musk has recently sued for advertising DOGE for $258bn.Tether, the issuer of the largest USDT stablecoin by capitalisation, announced the release of a GBPT “stablecoin” pegged to sterling.
FX: Can USD/JPY Hit 150!? How Weak Will Japanese Yen (JPY) Get? US Dollar (USD) - Where Is The Limit? | FxPro

FX: Can USD/JPY Hit 150!? How Weak Will Japanese Yen (JPY) Get? US Dollar (USD) - Where Is The Limit? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.06.2022 15:15
The Japanese yen leads in losses against the dollar amongst the G10 currencies. And so far, there are indications that the USDJPY’s rising trend will only be interrupted by technical corrections in the coming weeks or months. The main fundamental driver for the USDJPY is the substantial divergence in the US and Japanese monetary policy. The former has raised its key rate by 150 points in the last three meetings and started selling assets off the Fed balance sheet. The latter has maintained its crisis rhetoric, promising to continue with QE and increasing bond purchases to keep 10-year yields close to 0.25%. The currency market is not only wagering on the present but is actively putting expectations into prices. From this perspective, the USDJPY exchange rate results from an overlay of the key rate expectations, which are best reflected in 2-year bond yields. The spread started rising steadily in early 2021, at the same time as USDJPY began to rise. The spread between the US and Japanese 2-year yields exceeded 3% this month, reaching 3.5%, the highest since 2007, although it was only 0.25% at the beginning of last year. Approaching a spread of 3% has not stopped the Fed from tightening, nor the Japanese rhetoric, so it makes sense to tune in to a return to pre-World Financial Crisis norms, i.e., above 4.3% versus 3.2% now, leaving the potential for around a third of the movement that already passed. If these correlations between the USDJPY and USDJPY 2-year yield spreads remain in place, we could see the USDJPY continue to rise to 150 yen, last seen in 1990 and twice as high as the historic lows of 2011. Suppose the Japanese monetary authorities and the Ministry of Finance manage to steer the yen through such a devaluation, preserving confidence in the financial system. In that case, this could revive the economy by raising export competitiveness, potentially returning the Land of the Rising Sun to export-oriented status.
UK inflation indicates that the Bank of England is moving too slow

UK inflation indicates that the Bank of England is moving too slow

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.06.2022 11:59
Consumer inflation continues to gain momentum in the UK. Data for May showed that CPI accelerated to 9.1% y/y - a record among the G7 and a 40-year high. The monthly price growth rate was 0.7% compared to 2.5% and 1.1% in the previous two months. However, apart from the reversal to lower base commodity and energy prices in the last couple of weeks, there is little indication that the Bank of England can relax. Moreover, it needs to double the pace of the rate increase from 25 points at once.Last month producer input prices rose by 2.1% and output prices by 1.6%, reaching an annual rate of 22% and 15.6%, respectively. Under these conditions, producers and retailers will continue to pass increasing costs down to consumers. Unlike in the early years after the financial crisis, retail sales and employment are strong, which allows such a shift of rising outlays to end consumers.It could take another two months of waiting for a turning point in inflation, the CPI will reach a high base effect, and in that time, the CPI could get double-digit y/y growth rates.In this environment, the Bank of England’s moves to raise the rate by 25 points at each meeting are not capable of curbing inflation. Perhaps the main positive effect of this policy is the devaluation of the pound’s purchasing power and the reduction of the debt burden in real terms. However, the more obvious consequence of such policies is a drop in confidence in local financial markets and the pound, which we see with the Japanese yen at its lows against the dollar in 24 years.GBPUSD is now trading at 1.22 - near the psychological low of 1.2000, where it received critical support in 2017 and 2020. But that support may not survive the third test of strength due to an increasingly threatening gap between inflation and interest rates, which would devalue debt. But this is a risky policy that could undermine confidence in the financial system, which will require decisive and brutal measures for the economy to restore.
Asia Morning Bites - Covid in Shenzen, Powell testimony to Senate | ING Economics

ETH/USD Decreased. Market Crash: Crypto Fear And Greed Index Shows "11" (Extreme Fear)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.06.2022 09:37
Bitcoin rallied from $20.5K to $21.6K during the day on Tuesday but later reversed to decline and went back on Wednesday morning. Ether corrected deeply, losing 4.4% over the last 24 hours. The top ten altcoins showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 6.5% decline (Solana) to a 3.6% gain (Dogecoin). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined 1.9% to $900bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index dropped 0.2 points to 43.5%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 11 by Wednesday and remains in a state of “extreme fear”. After a strong move down last week and a retreat from the extremes on Sunday, BTCUSD failed to gain ground with buyers and remained pegged at the round level of $20K. Bitcoin’s recent drop below $20K triggered a new wave of deleveraging and liquidations that affected miners and long-term investors, Glassnode claims. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin criticised the popular Stock-to-Flow model for predicting bitcoin exchange rates, saying it is wrong and only gives people unwarranted confidence in the predetermination of exchange rate movements. Investors are buying bitcoin despite the market’s decline. According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw capital outflows of $39m last week, while there were inflows of $28m into BTC. Investors have, in our view, false confidence in their strengths. It is commonly believed in the media that retail investors were the first to buy out the 2020 bottom and who managed to beat the funds in 2021 using the r/wallstreetbets forum. But then the Fed and many other central banks, along with governments, were on the buyers’ side, conducting unprecedented policy easing and handing out monetary stimulus. Now they are doing the opposite: rolling back support programmes and raising rates at the highest rate in decades. Retail shoppers risk being caught swimming against the financial current, which is hardly a successful strategy. History suggests that enthusiasts risk running out of steam soon, being left with depreciating assets, and losing confidence for years that equity or cryptocurrency markets are a worthwhile place for their money
S&P500 bounces back from oversold, but what’s around the corner?

S&P500 bounces back from oversold, but what’s around the corner?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.06.2022 15:43
The US market opens later today after a long weekend. S&P500 futures indicate a 1.5% gain to Friday’s closing level, playing off the positive outperformance on the outside. The currency market has also swung towards buying risky assets, reinforcing hopes of at least a rebound in the coming days after a 13.5% dip from the highs to the lows of the month in the first two weeks of June.In equities, the positive tone is set by the performance of Asian equities and the recovery of major European indices from oversold territory. The DAX40 and FTSE100 are recovering from their lows of March. Both indices have stuck within the Fibonacci retracement pattern and got support at 61.8% for DAX and 76.4% for FTSE from the pandemic amplitude.The weakening of the traditional shelter currencies - JPY, CHF - is setting a positive tone. The USDJPY has updated to a new high since 1998, above 136, indicating a return of risk appetite in some financial market segments. USDCHF settled near 0.9660, stopping the decline after last week’s unexpected SNB rate hike.The euro and the pound are also gaining against the dollar, signalling a recovery in risk appetite. However, it is essential to note the fragility of the current rebound. Most likely, we will see a corrective bounce after the worst week in equities in more than two years. However, finding medium-term reasons to buy “risk” is still tricky. Aside from the BoJ, the main central banks are tightening policy or promise to do so as soon as next month. And so far, we see no sign that this trend is about to end or reverse.Thus, cautious investors can still only tune in for a short-term bounce but do not hold out hope that the markets have bottomed out. The bear market in the USA will likely continue until we hear from the Fed the first hints of a halt to aggressive policy tightening. Until then, a bear market with occasional corrective bounces is likely.History also tells us that after entering a bear market phase and losing 20%, the market loses about another 20% on average (about 2900 for the S&P500) before it finds its footing. This scenario looks especially relevant when the Fed is not at all concerned about markets correcting, as it did at the beginning of the pandemic.But it is too early for the bears to celebrate because they have yet to break the emerging rebound and push the S&P500 below 3500, significant psychological support, where the 200-week moving average and critical support/resistance levels of the second half of 2020 are located. Our pessimistic scenario could be reversed if the S&P500 exceeds the 3900 mark during the emerging rebound. In that case, a reversal of the equity market to the upside would have to be considered.
Investing In Gold? XAUUSD - Can Gold Price Reach $1700!? | FxPro

Investing In Gold? XAUUSD - Can Gold Price Reach $1700!? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.06.2022 11:45
Despite attempts at rebounding equity markets, moderate pressure on gold has persisted for the third consecutive trading session. This pressure is directly linked to rising long-term bond yields on US debt and several other developed countries. Bonds and gold work like communicating vessels: rising real long-term yields draw capital to the debt markets away from gold. Over the last two years, the inverse correlation between gold and US 10-year Treasury yields has been very strong: gold prices peaked in August 2020, while yields rose from 0.5%. Last week, when the 10-year Treasury yield was rising temporarily to 3.5%, it tested the $1800 area. However, there are several essential points to understand in this correlation. First, the 10-year Treasury yields touched 11-year highs last week, while gold has retreated only to the levels last seen at the start of the year. In other words, an active capital outflow from gold only occurs when yields decline sharply, whereas the long-term trend favours the shiny metal. This correlation can easily be explained by inflation, which eats into the purchasing power of money in the long term. Secondly, 10-year yields are not so much influenced by short-term Fed interest rates as economic growth forecasts. Increased chances of a recession in the foreseeable future have dampened long-term yields. In addition, there are signs that the upward movement in UST yields was too fast, setting up a corrective pullback in the near term. In our opinion, the potential danger for gold is a further tightening of the Fed’s tone, i.e. hints of new steps of a 75-point rate hike and a willingness to keep rates above inflation. But so far, we have seen a significant outperformance of inflation over key rates, and comments from FOMC members indicate a willingness to stop with a tightening in the 3.5-4.0% area, with no attempt to ride out inflation and a reversal to a rate cut as early as 2024. Such outlooks are keeping long-term bond yields in check and, at the same time fuelling interest in a strategy of buying gold during intense downturns. Locally, creeping upward bond yields are working for sellers of gold. This also has a bearish signal in the form of consolidation below the 200-day moving average. However, gold’s resilience drew attention when markets overestimated expectations of a rate hike from 50 to 75 points and multiple buying gains on dips under the 200-day moving average since December last year.
Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Market Crash: "Extreme Fear"! Is The Bottom Reached Already!? Bitcoin Price Has Increased By 5%, ETH/USD Gone Up As Well | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.06.2022 09:21
Bitcoin has rebounded 5% in the past 24 hours, trading at $20,800. Ethereum has recovered 6.4% to $1130 in the same time frame. Leading altcoins in the top 10 are adding from a modest 3.5% (XRP) to an impressive 15% (Solana). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 5% to $914bn. Tuesday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index was unchanged at 9 points (“extreme fear”). Bitcoin managed to hold above the $20,000 round level on Monday amid weak trading activity due to the US holidays and attracting enough speculative demand after dipping below the meaningful round level. This recovery removes some of the extreme oversold nature of the cryptocurrency. Still, it will be too early to talk about a long-term reversal: all negative fundamentals remain. In our view, until sharp monetary policy tightening becomes the norm, financial market pressures can quickly negate bounces in cryptocurrencies. Even if we have seen a bottom, it could still be months before the next sustained rally. Bitcoin’s return above $20,000 does not mean it has hit “the bottom”, warned renowned cryptocurrency critic and gold supporter Peter Schiff. Kraken exchange marketing director Dan Held said bitcoin had chosen the most pessimistic scenario possible amid rising inflation and an impending recession. According to him, “those who survive will get HODLer status”. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele urged the cryptocurrency community not to panic as the market falls. According to him, the decline is relatively standard, and market participants must be patient. JPMorgan Bank said that the rising share of stable coins in the total market capitalisation of the crypto market indicates its growth potential. Changpeng Zhao, chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, denied media reports that the platform bought more than 100,000 BTC on a falling market.
The sell-off in the S&P500 has not triggered a wider risk-off

The sell-off in the S&P500 has not triggered a wider risk-off

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.06.2022 16:01
US stock markets updated multi-month lows on Thursday, pushing the S&P500 back to December 2020 and the Nasdaq back to November 2020 at one point. On Friday, before active US trading starts, we see the market attempting to form Friday’s profit from the recent sell-off.In the meantime, it is worth paying attention to several indicators that might point to a long pause in the decline of the markets or even a probable upturn. Perhaps they will also act as a basis for a broader rally.The yields of the 10-year Treasuries have retreated to levels below 3.4%. Yesterday we saw intense intraday swings with another attempt to break above 3.5%. However, towards the end of trading, when actively managed funds dominated the market, there were active purchases of US government bonds, which pressured the yields back to 3.2%.This could manifest rising recession bets in the USA or a downgrading of long-term economic growth estimates. However, there is a positive side effect to falling yields. A peak followed a sustained yield rise over a couple of weeks in the S&P500. A sustained reversal to lower yields could also increase the equity market and restore demand for risky assets.The dollar index is also retreating. The Dollar Index fell sharply yesterday, hitting a sell-off during the New York session. Most of the time, DXY and stocks are moving in opposite directions. Their lockstep move rarely lasts long. Looking back at buying US bonds, it could be assumed that there is more chance of a further bounce in equities. However, there will be much more certainty for a fundamental reversal of the stock market to the upside if yields fall below 3%.Separately, one should not overlook the influx of buyers into gold. To a large extent, it can be explained by a weaker USD and lower bond yields. But it is also psychologically crucial that gold has managed to hold above $1800 and closed above the 200-day moving average on Thursday. The long lower shadow of the weekly candlestick might precede several weeks of growth, as it was in March and August 2021. For gold, that might be enough to dislodge the aggressive sellers and attract buyers who believe the worst is over. 
Is The Recent Crypto Crash Like 2008 Crisis!? Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Is Very Close To $19K Level!  Bitcoin will test historical patterns

Is The Recent Crypto Crash Like 2008 Crisis!? Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Is Very Close To $19K Level! Bitcoin will test historical patterns

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.06.2022 10:27
Bitcoin was down 4.9% on Thursday, ending around $20.7K and trading near $20.8K at the start of the day on Friday. Ethereum lost 6.4% in the last 24 hours, returning to the 1100 area. Altcoins in the top 10 fell in price from 2.9% (BNB) to 8.8% (Polkadot). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 3.5% overnight to $903bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.3 points to 44.0%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 2 points to 9 by Friday. Although we did not see any new intraday lows, Bitcoin closed Thursday with a tenth consecutive day of declines. New lows in stock indices contributed mainly to this. Bitcoin could be uncharted territory in a few days when historical patterns stop working. The bearish focus remains on the circular $20,000 level, the former peak of 2017. At no time in past down cycles has BTC fallen below the high of the previous bull cycle. Closing the week below $22.3K would also be unique, as it would be the first close below the 200-week average. Bitcoin has previously fallen below this curve more than once but quickly regained some ground, finding ample demand from long-term investors amid a deep and quick sell-off. The latest issue to attract investors’ attention has been the uncertainty surrounding Singapore-based cryptocurrency fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC). The hedge fund could be the subject of a new scandal amid growing speculation about its possible bankruptcy. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero called on the US Congress to close the cryptocurrency regulation gap and compared the collapse in the crypto-asset market to the 2008 financial crisis.
SNB suddenly hikes interest rate, triggering Franc rally

SNB suddenly hikes interest rate, triggering Franc rally

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.06.2022 16:41
In a surprise decision, the Swiss National Bank raised its key rate by 50 points to -0.25%, the first increase in the country in 15 years. The SNB commented on the decision that it does not rule out further rises.The main reason cited was to fight inflation, which reached 2.9% y/y in May. Inflation around Switzerland (in the Euro-region) is more than double, but rates have not been raised there. Therefore, analysts and traders did not expect to see policy tightening in Switzerland today. The hawkish surprise caused the USDCHF to fall more than 2% to 1.013, subsequently pulling back to 1.018.It is fair to say that the SNB is acting pre-emptively by actively raising the rate now in order not to raise it longer and higher later. The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ are getting their share of criticism for not doing the same.However, traders and investors should be cautious. The SNB has warned that it will remain active with currency interventions that could contain the strengthening of the franc.However, the last point is highly controversial. A rate hike and strengthening the national currency vs. competitors both suppress inflation, so FX activity from the SNB is likely to reduce volatility but not reverse the market.Over the last half-century, monetary and fiscal policy has helped the franc methodically strengthen against the euro and the Dollar. Recent actions by the SNB suggest that this historical trend will continue, bringing the EURCHF steadily below parity before the end of the year.
S&P500 could fall to 3,500 before Fed softens its approach

S&P500 could fall to 3,500 before Fed softens its approach

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.06.2022 12:45
The Fed raised the rate by 75 points, something it has not done in 28 years. Such a move had already been priced in. In fact, on the eve of the announcement, the markets had even factored a small probability of a 100-point move.The Fed did not go against the markets but did not add fuel to the expectations, creating a “sell the facts” reaction. However, there are considerable doubts about the sustainability of yesterday’s rebound in equities and the Dollar’s retreat.In trading in Europe, the Dollar largely regained its losses after the FOMC, and the equity market erased the rebound. Today’s market reaction looks like a prologue to further downward impulse in the coming days, justified by tighter financial conditions from the world’s biggest central banks and worsening macroeconomic forecasts.Thus, the Fed raised its year-end forecast for the unemployment rate to 3.7%, ruling out a further decline from current levels. GDP growth for 2022 was revised from 2.8% to 1.7%, and such a rate is expected for 2023.Among the potentially positive things for the markets is the assurance that yesterday’s move was exceptional and that FOMC intends to hike by another 50-points at the end of the July meeting.It is also essential for markets to understand where the Fed intends to stand. Average forecasts from FOMC members suggest a level of 3.75%, which is 200 points above the current rate and 150 points below the peak that the futures market set up for the day before.Despite the reassurances of Powell, the markets can hardly go through a period of 50-point hikes at a time with quantitative easing without losses, which is tightening financial conditions on both sides. The rally in the Dollar and the decline in equity prices in response to such policies could bring the final point of fiscal tightening closer. Still, in the coming days or weeks, markets have a high chance of adjusting to the new reality.The S&P500 futures are down to 3700, taking the market another couple of steps closer to 3500, a significant long-term trendline. Unless markets go into free-fall mode, near 3500, where the 200-week moving average passes, markets could find support, as they did in 2016 and 2018. A free-fall regime for the S&P500 below this line, in our view, could force the Fed to urgently soften its approach.
Bitcoin bounced up from $20K, but lack of reasons for a rally

Bitcoin bounced up from $20K, but lack of reasons for a rally

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.06.2022 09:42
Bitcoin was down 0.7% on Wednesday, ending it near $21.8K, although it was a hair away from $20K in the first half of the day. Ethereum gained 5% in the past 24 hours, losing 35% in 7 days. Altcoins from the top 10 are growing ahead of the curve, rising between 7% (BNB) and 18.6% (Solana). The top altcoins are behaving better than the flagships (ETH, BTC) this week, as they have fewer institutions and crypto enthusiasts find them relatively stable and still cheap.Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, added 5% overnight to $0.94 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index declined 0.6 points overnight and 2.2 points in 7 days to 44.3%.By Thursday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index remained unchanged at 7 points (“extreme fear”).It isn’t easy to rely on the resulting rebound as it is not due to easing financial conditions. Bitcoin’s recovery to Tuesday’s levels looks like a technical bounce after a quick collapse. Yesterday, financial markets received the fastest monetary policy tightening in almost 30 years, which has hardly added to the appeal of cryptocurrencies for the foreseeable future.Investors and traders should be prepared that yesterday’s rebound could choke out rather quickly. We need to be ready that cryptocurrencies and risky assets in financial markets are unlikely to reliably bounce back before there are signals that the economy has stopped slowing. The Fed is no longer tightening its rhetoric. Despite the massive fall in the crypto market, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor continues to express confidence in bitcoin’s growth. He said the company is safe, has enough collateral for its loan, and could survive a BTC’s fall as low as $3562. MicroStrategy has already lost more than $1.2 billion due to the decline in BTC.According to a Bank of America survey, 90% of Americans plan to buy cryptocurrencies in the next six months.According to market veteran Peter Brandt, people are willing to buy anything in the hope of an “ace” but end up losing their hard-earned money.
Yesterday’s oil and gas crash is the first sign of a break in the energy uptrend

Yesterday’s oil and gas crash is the first sign of a break in the energy uptrend

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.06.2022 16:04
Oil and gas took a massive hit during the New York trading session. Oil and gas fell sharply for different reasons, but in both cases, we could witness a bearish energy reversal after more than fivefold price gains from the macrocycle lows of April 2020.Natural gas was momentarily losing over 20% on Tuesday on reports that Freeport LNG is set to get its terminal back online within 90 days. It is speculated that a full recovery is not expected until the end of the year, but gas futures have managed to cut losses from 20% to 18%, trading at $7.26 at the time of writing.It’s counter-intuitive, but the gas price peaked on the day the Freeport LNG fire was announced on June 8, and from a peak at $9.6, the price has fallen by a quarter. If we do see a reversal, it would not be surprising if gas loses ground rapidly down to 6.5 or even 6.0 before the bears make their first attempts to lock in profits.Oil is also turning around. Brent is in its fifth trading session showing a downtrend with a sequence of increasingly lower lows and highs. Yesterday morning, we saw bulls’ efforts to break the trend run into furious selling as the price lost 5% or almost $6 in less than five hours.We had already seen in early March that oil was looking too expensive for buyers in the market and economy, causing a demand shock and triggering a correction. Fresh data from the IEA highlights that global inventory rose in April for the first time in almost two years. However, OPEC+ is increasingly falling short of quotas, and US production has stagnated near 11.9m BPD for the last ten weeks.Our estimate is that we will see the end of a multi-month rally in oil strengthen if Brent consolidates below $114. That would be a drop from the beginning of the month and a dip below the locally significant level, which was resistance in April and May and support in early June. An even more reliable signal for the bears’ victory would be a consolidation below $110, where the 50-day moving average now passes. That could open a direct and unexpectedly fast road to the area of $100 by the end of August. However, we expect it to stay in the $100-120 range for the rest of the year.
What's It Going To Be Celsius? Can Bitcoin Price Go Any Lower? Yesterday BTC/USD Lost 5.7%, ETHUSD Decreased By 38% In A Week

What's It Going To Be Celsius? Can Bitcoin Price Go Any Lower? Yesterday BTC/USD Lost 5.7%, ETHUSD Decreased By 38% In A Week

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.06.2022 09:26
Bitcoin was down 5.7% on Tuesday, ending the day at around $22K. The decline picked up on Wednesday morning, taking another 3.3% off the price to $21K, declining for the eighth consecutive day and losing 30% in seven days. Ethereum lost 8.1% in 24 hours and 38% in a week. Leading altcoins in the top ten are losing between 2% (Polkadot) and 9.6% (Dogecoin). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 6.4% overnight to $898bn. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point by Wednesday, to 7, which last was in March 2020. Concerns around a sharp tightening of monetary policy are weighing on financial markets and are trickling down into cryptocurrencies through their influence on large institutional investors. It is not surprising that Bitcoin and Ether are dragging the entire cryptocurrency market down in such an environment. According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew $102 million from cryptocurrencies last week amid expectations of a tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The US regulator’s two-day meeting results will be announced todays. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes fears that the market has not yet hit rock bottom, and we could see a massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies if bitcoin falls below $20,000. Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz is convinced that bitcoin is close to the “bottom” and will hold above $20,000. We believe Bitcoin may be close to its bottom, but it could take months until the next rally. During those months, the entire crypto industry will probably go through a furnace of fire, as we saw with Terra (Luna), and is now happening with Celsius. Stablecoins continue to be tested, and USDD being below parity with USD for the third day tells us that history with USDT (stable tied to Luna) could repeat itself several times.
S&P 500 (SPX) Decreased On Monday, So Did Nasdaq. Fed, What's Ahead Of Us? How High US Dollar (USD) Is Going To Go?

S&P 500 (SPX) Decreased On Monday, So Did Nasdaq. Fed, What's Ahead Of Us? How High US Dollar (USD) Is Going To Go?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.06.2022 12:07
The S&P500 index fell 3.9% intraday on Monday, closing the index in the bear market territory. The Nasdaq collapsed more than 4.6%, losing a third of its all-time high in November last year. The dollar index closed above 105 on Monday, renewing 20-year highs. On Tuesday morning, markets are technically bouncing back after yesterday’s strong move, with index futures adding more than 1% at the start of the European trading session and the DXY retreating to 104.60.   Whether we see a double-top formation in the Dollar Index or a temporary stop before a breakout upwards, we are unlikely to know before we see the market reaction to the Fed’s Funds rate decisions and comments tomorrow evening. The strong market movement from late last week was driven by consumer inflation, which in May hit a record since 1981, rising to 8.6% y/y. This data has triggered a wave of reassessment of the market outlook. Rate futures right now are laying down a 98% chance of a 75-point hike as early as tomorrow against a 35% chance the day before. These are rather stressed estimates of the situation. But such a move would be too extreme for the Fed, which had previously warned that it was prepared to make several moves with a 50-point hike. In our view, the most hawkish of the realistic scenarios involves a 50-point rate hike and a hint of a 75 step up at the end of July if required. Suppose the Fed’s tone is in line with our expectations. In that case, the dollar could retreat from its extreme valuations and a more sustained rebound in equities as the most frightening outlook for the economy recedes into the background. However, although it will raise the rate by 50 points, the chances are high that the Fed will indicate a willingness to be more aggressive by warning of a readiness to raise the rate by 75 points in the next few meetings. Predictions about when the Fed intends to end policy tightening are equally crucial for the markets. The markets expect the rate to peak at 4.00% in March next year from 0.75%. Market expectations on how the Fed will act in the short and medium-term have formed an emotional bias towards excessive tightness. However, with high and still rising inflation expectations, it may not be in the interest of the Fed to soften these expectations too much in the coming days and weeks. The latter means that the Fed could warn that it is prepared to act more firmly afterwards by keeping demand for the dollar and pressure on assets until the peak in inflation has occurred.
Crypto Market Crash!? What's "Cryptozyma"? Bitcoin Lost 15.1% (BTC/USD) Yesterday! ETH Has Decreased By 7.8%! | FxPro

Crypto Market Crash!? What's "Cryptozyma"? Bitcoin Lost 15.1% (BTC/USD) Yesterday! ETH Has Decreased By 7.8%! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.06.2022 09:32
Bitcoin collapsed 15.1% on Monday, ending the day around $23,200 and slipped another 10% on Tuesday morning on inertia before finding support from buyers after touching $20,800. Ethereum has lost 7.8% in the past 24 hours and more than 30% in the week. The top ten altcoins show buyer optimism, with Solana up 9.5% and Cardano up 7.3%. Among the decline, leaders are Tron with -8% and BNB with -3.5%. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 6% overnight to $0.965 trillion. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 3 points to 8 by Tuesday and remains in “extreme fear”. Bitcoin collapsed on Monday in the biggest decline since the March 2020 crisis amid falling stock markets and a rising US dollar. Bitcoin closed the December 2020 gap by touching the area below the 200-week simple moving average. But in our view, Bitcoin needs to touch levels near 19500: the 2017 peak, which is also where the most aggressive growth phase started at the end of 2020, for a definitive return of long-term buyers. A similar three-point checklist for Ether is also incomplete. ETHUSD touched the 200-week average and dived below the peak levels of the previous cycle in 2018. However, the most aggressive rally at the end of 2020 came from $740, which is well below the day’s lows today at $1075. However, the latter target may prove too ambitious for the bears. Along with BTC, cryptocurrency-focused stocks also collapsed. MicroStrategy shares lost 25.2%, while Coinbase dropped 11.4%. The key trigger for the sell-off in the crypto sphere is the US inflation hike to 8.6% on Friday, followed by speculation that the Fed could raise rates by 75 points at Wednesday’s meeting or at the end of July. According to IntoTheBlock, about half of cryptocurrency holders are now incurring losses. According to Crypto.com CEO Chris Marszalek, the market has entered a phase of “cryptozyma” that could drag on, according to Crypto.com CEO Chris Marszalek. Cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius has suspended withdrawals, exchanges and transactions of digital assets due to “extreme market conditions”. Tether has ruled out the impact of the Celsius incident on USDT reserves. The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has warned of the risks associated with Stablecoin, citing the collapse of the Terra project. The US Treasury Department believes that the country’s authorities should be more proactive in seeking to regulate the crypto industry, given the active digitalisation of the financial sector.
Oil may have started its turn down

Oil may have started its turn down

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.06.2022 15:07
Oil fell symbolically over the past week, losing 1.3% to $116.3 a barrel of WTI amid trading in Europe on Monday.Locally oil looks like a solid defensive asset, with oil companies such as Exxon Mobil renewing record highs, attracting investor capital. While geopolitics and strong demand are behind the sector’s growth, the risks may outweigh the upside potential at current levels.Technically, oil remains within the upward trend formed late last year. Intra-week price dips under this line have been instead actively bought out.At the same time, on the weekly charts, WTI oil formed a double top, failing to close the week above $120. The red line for oil could be to consolidate below $110 at the end of this or next week.On the same weekly timeframes that best fit commodity markets, the WTI has stalled at the overbought area of the RSI index. In the previous year and a half, we had a similar situation four times, all ending in a corrective pullback. Among the fundamental factors is the increase in the number of working oil rigs in the USA last week to 733 in total, of which 580 were producing oil. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said late last week that production in the country is picking up, which we have yet to see in the reports.OPEC countries have also been increasing their production capacity, raising the quota target by 648K BPD in the last two months, instead of the previous step of 400K and later 432K BPD per month. So far, the cartel has not scooped up quotas, but high oil prices and a sustained rise in the cap will attract new investment, as it did in the last decade, which has caused oil prices to fall chronically.There is also downward pressure on the bears’ side in the equity market. So far, oil has ignored the flight from risky assets, but history teaches us that such periods do not last, and oil could start catching up with the rest of the market very soon.
GBPUSD and FTSE100 have not recouped their downside potential

GBPUSD and FTSE100 have not recouped their downside potential

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.06.2022 10:16
GBPUSD and FTSE100 have not recouped their downside potential GBPUSD is trading near 1.2250, losing about 3% in the last four trading sessions. Pressure on the pound intensified on Monday, releasing a disappointing set of statistics. Monthly estimates showed the economy shrinking by 0.3% for April, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% growth. Industrial production data also fell short of expectations. High employment levels do not promise a rapid expansion in the current environment. As we can see, manufacturers generally prefer to take a wait-and-see attitude, maintaining a 0.7% y/y gain. For the UK economy, it will get worse before it gets better. And it is not very good news for the GBPUSD. Sterling is approaching the lows of mid-May. A move below 1.2150 would confirm that we have only seen a rebound in the bear market at the end of last month, and we shouldn’t be surprised by an intensified sell-off and possible failure with a potential target at 1.1500 (March 2020 lows and 161.8% of the March-May 2022 anti-rally). The FTSE100 has fallen sharply below its 200-day moving average due to pressure on global markets. This dip attracted buyers in March and May as volatility began to subside. The 7700 level from 2018 remains too attractive for long-term sellers. In February 2020 and two years later, we saw a furious sell-off as powerful fundamentals were on the bears’ side, as they are now. Correction targets for the FTSE100 could be levels of 7000 for a relatively soft landing and 6800 for a deeper correction.   
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

BTC/USD Hitting $20K!? Bitcoin Price Is Going Down! ETH/USD, Solana (SOL) And Tron - They All Have Decreased! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.06.2022 08:36
Bitcoin is losing for the seventh consecutive day, at one point on Monday morning, falling below $25K. The loss in seven days of selling is approaching 18%, bringing the rate to its lowest since December 2020. Ethereum has lost 28% in seven days. Altcoins in the top 10 fell in price from 14.5% (Tron) to 32% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 20% for the week, approaching the 1 trillion mark and crossing it at some point in the morning. As the price falls, so does trading volume, meaning we see investors fleeing the crypto market. However, the traditional market is suffering from the same symptoms. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dipped to 11 points by Monday. Two similarly prolonged swings of this index in the 10-20 range were in December 2018 and March 2020. In the first, it was the end of the crypto-winter; in the second, it was the final chord of the sell-off. However, it may be too early to rush to redeem the drawdown. Bitcoin does not seem to have closed the gestalt yet, having not tested the 200-week moving average as it did in the previous two cases. It is now passing through 22K. A more ambitious target for the bears would be an attempt to push Bitcoin back to the 2017 highs region, above $19K. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called cryptocurrencies a ‘very risky’ option for retirement savings. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned investors of a prolonged phase of market consolidation amid tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Cardano blockchain founder Charles Hoskinson believes there are positives to be found even in the current market situation, as a bearish trend opens new opportunities for the crypto sphere. The Central Bank of Canada reported that the share of its citizens owning BTC almost tripled to 13% in 2021. The Swedish Central Bank has called for a ban on bitcoin and other Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies because of the environmental impact.
US Dollar Soaring Again!? High US CPI Can Affect Stock Markets, But Also Help US Dollar (USD) To Go Even Higher! | FxPro

US Dollar Soaring Again!? High US CPI Can Affect Stock Markets, But Also Help US Dollar (USD) To Go Even Higher! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.06.2022 16:20
The US consumer price index accelerated by 8.6% in May from 8.3% a month earlier. The new data exceeded expectations, rebutting hopes that US inflation is already slowing. Today's inflation report is the last big release before the Fed meeting next Wednesday. A renewal of inflation to 40-year highs will surely attract the public's attention at the weekend and will pressure the Fed. Potentially, such high reading could trigger a tougher FOMC stance in the accompanying commentary. Recently, the Fed has been expected to raise rates by 50 points next week and hints of another such move in late July. However, with a strong labour market and persistently high inflation, there are increasing chances that more such double-sized rate hikes are required, which is speculatively good news for the dollar in the coming weeks. A separate issue is quantitative tightening. The Fed could also adjust its plans to sell assets off the balance sheet to tighten financial conditions in the country further. Proponents of such an approach point to the record amounts of excess liquidity that commercial banks are parking on central bank balance sheets. High inflation is bad news for the stock market because it will force the Fed to tighten the monetary policy screws even further. The Fed's open intention to suppress inflation creates risk-off market sentiment when the price growth remains high. In this environment, dollar-denominated money market assets become attractive because of higher yields. This is in stark contrast to last year when the Fed reassured us that everything would pass by itself, so investors preferred to sell dollars that were losing value.
ECB (European Central Bank) is two steps behind the Fed (Federal Reserve), digging a hole under the euro (EUR) | FxPro

ECB (European Central Bank) is two steps behind the Fed (Federal Reserve), digging a hole under the euro (EUR) | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.06.2022 13:09
As expected, euro buyers' optimism faded immediately after the ECB press conference began, returning EURUSD to a repeat of 1.0600. Shortly after the initial surge in reports of an actual reversal in ECB policy, investors and traders delved into assessments of how slower the policy reversal in Europe was. The ECB will only stop buying assets on its balance sheet later this month - two steps behind the US, where purchases were curtailed months ago and active sales are already due to begin in June. The Fed raised its rate by 25 points in March and 50 points at the start of May, promising two more 50-point hikes in June and July. From the ECB, we see a conditional promise to consider a rate hike of more than 25 points in September in case of high inflation forecasts for 2023. That said, inflation in the eurozone is comparable to the US, and economic growth is just as, if not more, vulnerable to logistical failures and energy prices. Not only has the ECB started its policy turnaround later, but it is also doing so more slowly than the Fed so that the interest rate differential only widens over time. Such differences are a fundamental reason to sell the euro against the dollar. Moreover, the EURUSD bounce in the second half of May erased the pair's oversold conditions, clearing the way for another step down. Yesterday's comments from the ECB convinced us not to expect any hawkish surprises from Lagarde and Co, triggering a new sell-off impulse. It won't be surprising if EURUSD makes another test of the May low at 1.0350 or if it makes a new 20-year low below that level during the next couple of weeks.
Best Crypto To Invest In? Cryptocurrencies: Are BTC And ETH "Best Long-Term Investments"? Ethereum (ETH/USD) Decreased By 0.4%, Cardano (ADA) Lost 2.5% | FxPro

Best Crypto To Invest In? Cryptocurrencies: Are BTC And ETH "Best Long-Term Investments"? Ethereum (ETH/USD) Decreased By 0.4%, Cardano (ADA) Lost 2.5% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.06.2022 09:06
Bitcoin was down 0.3% on Thursday, continuing to hover around $30K. This mild decline was a bonus of last month's loss of correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Ethereum lost 0.4%, settling near $1800. Other top-10 altcoins showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 2.5% decline (Cardano) to a 3.6% rise (Solana). Financial market veteran Peter Brandt believes Ethereum is in a downward triangle and could fall to $1268 within a month. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 0.2% overnight to $1.24 trillion. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were up 2 points to 13 by Friday and remains in "extreme fear" mode. Bitcoin has crossed the $30K mark almost daily over the past month, with no significant preponderance of buyers or sellers to form a clear trend. Generally, the correlation gap between cryptocurrencies and stock markets is long-term good news as it attracts the attention of professional investors. Weakness in equity and bond markets, sagging gold and the murky outlook for the real estate market are turning their eyes to cryptocurrencies as another tool in a diversified portfolio. CNBC's Mad Money host Jim Cramer has changed his mind about investing in cryptocurrencies, calling BTC and ETH the best long-term investments. However, they should not account for more than 5% of a portfolio. PwC, an audit firm, reported that most hedge funds invest less than 1% of their assets in cryptocurrencies because of regulatory uncertainty in the industry. According to a Deloitte survey, 75% of US retailers will implement support for cryptocurrency payments within two years. USDT, the world's most prominent staple by market capitalisation, will be available on the Tezos blockchain powered by the Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. The USDT ecosystem is now open on 12 networks, including Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Tron and Algorand.
Podcast: Market rips into reverse. Evening star on Nasdaq 100

The odd EUR growth after the ECB meeting

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.06.2022 15:49
The European Central Bank has kept its key rate unchanged and officially announced that it will stop buying as part of its asset purchase programme from July 1. In an accompanying commentary, the ECB explicitly indicated that it intends to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting, depriving the markets of intrigue for the coming weeks. However, the ECB also indicated that it intends to tighten policy in September and could raise the rate by 50 points. Quite expectedly, the ECB's stance looks much softer – dovish – compared with that of the central banks in the USA, UK, Canada, Australia and several others that are many months ahead of the European Central Bank in their policy reversal. Moreover, the ECB has lowered its GDP forecasts for this year and the next, from 3.7% to 2.8% in 2022 and from 2.8% to 2.1% in 2023. With such a clear difference in policy and worsening forecasts, it was unexpected to see a positive reaction from the single currency. In our view, this assessment by the market could reflect short-term speculative buying on the policy reversal, similar to how the Pound and Dollar strengthened before respective rate uplifts. Nevertheless, with a comparable rate of inflation, the ECB has a lag in policy normalisation, and this gap promises only to widen in the coming months. This is terrible news for the single currency, so we should not be surprised if we continue to see the euro selling off on intraday growth attempts.
1 Bitcoin Mining Costs About $6,250! Bitcoin Lost 3.7% Yesterday. ETH Has Lost 0.5% Cryptocurrency Fear And Greed Index Still Shows "Extreme Fear" | FxPro

1 Bitcoin Mining Costs About $6,250! Bitcoin Lost 3.7% Yesterday. ETH Has Lost 0.5% Cryptocurrency Fear And Greed Index Still Shows "Extreme Fear" | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.06.2022 09:16
Bitcoin was down 3.7% on Wednesday, ending the day near the $30.2K level, which it remains near on Thursday morning. The overall subdued sentiment towards cryptocurrencies coincided with a pullback in stock indices. However, the dynamics of the previous days suggest that this is more of a coincidence than a correlation. Cryptocurrencies have entered a period of the most pronounced and prolonged lull since late 2020, as the total cryptocurrency cap hovers between $1.2 and $1.3 trillion for almost a month. This lull is also reducing trading volumes, as the entire cryptocurrency industry often attracts the attention of lovers of solid moves. In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has lost 0.5%, hovering around $1800 at writing. Altcoins from the top 10 show small multidirectional movements from a 0.75% decline (BNB, Solana) to a 0.7% rise (Polkadot). The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were down 6 points to 11 by Thursday and remains in “extreme fear”. The nature of the cryptocurrency market, built on hype, convinces us that a lack of movement is the worst news for cryptocurrencies. Perhaps only strong moves can attract interest. Crypto traders anxiously recall the “crypto winter” of 2018. However, a crypto summer lull that started a month ago may not be any easier. It’s a worrying lull that risks quickly turning into a selloff. We still believe that the bear market for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market has yet to play its final act, and that should be expected before the end of the year. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes bitcoin will never fall to zero as international regulators look for ways to control crypto assets rather than impose a total ban on them. Anne Boden, CEO of UK bank Starling, said cryptocurrencies are too often linked to fraud and money laundering, making them a threat to traditional payment systems. PayPal said it would allow its customers to transfer BTC, ETH, BCH and LTC to external addresses, including exchanges and hardware wallets. Mining company Marathon Digital said that bitcoin miners do not incur losses even in a falling market, as the cost to mine 1 BTC is about $6,250.
USDJPY could climb as high as 150 as the BoJ’s hands are tied

USDJPY could climb as high as 150 as the BoJ’s hands are tied

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.06.2022 14:41
The USDJPY has added for the sixth trading session out of the last seven, this week renewing 20-year highs. The pair reached 134, getting very close to the extremes of January 2001, near 135.We see that this new momentum is as strong, if not stronger, than what we found in March-April. The first impulse was a 14% weakening of the yen against the dollar for two months. The central bank and finance ministers started to talk down the yen, indicating that a sharp deterioration was undesirable.The pullback, triggered by verbal interventions and speculation that the BoJ might reduce QE to tighten policy and protect the yen, only bought time but turned the market around.In the last days of May, it was clear that the monetary watchdogs favoured continued stimulus and did not change their policy. This mood contrasts sharply with the active policy tightening moves in the USA in many other developed countries and is a fundamental reason for using the yen as a funding currency.If the Bank of Japan manages to conduct a controlled landing of the yen at another, fundamentally lower level, it would restore competitiveness to Japanese exports and provide a driver to turn on the industrial engine, which has often stalled in recent years.In the meantime, investors and traders should be prepared for a permanent yen decline over this year or the first half of the next one if we now see Europe and the US abandoning their zero-interest-rate policy, as policymakers there hinted recently. For its part, Japan will likely remain tied up in an anaemic economy riddled with sovereign debt, which will not allow for an adequate increase in government stimulus to spur growth.All that sets the stage for USDJPY to move up towards 140 in the coming weeks and 150 before the end of the year. However, the tight correlation between the yield on 10-year US Treasuries and the USDJPY dynamics suggests that without an economic disaster in Japan or the global economy, a fixation above 150 is unlikely.
Euro completes rebound and prepares for another round of declines

Euro completes rebound and prepares for another round of declines

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.06.2022 12:19
The single currency returned under 1.0700 after three days of decline. Late last month, EURUSD failed to consolidate above the 50-day moving average, confirming the prevalence of the downtrend.The bounce in the pair in the second half of last month should be seen as a technical correction after accumulated oversold conditions after 12 months of a downtrend. That bounce lost its strength on the approach of the 50-day moving average and near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement line. Such shallow corrections are characteristic of strong trending markets, setting up for a further leg down.The EURUSD is in a reduced volatility mode waiting for another ECB decision tomorrow. Earlier, in AUD and NZD examples, we saw that raising the rate by 50 points does not guarantee a surge in the currency, even if the decision was more hawkish than the markets expected.The lull in the euro could be a case of waiting and looking for a suitable excuse to resume a selloff in EURUSD, and the ECB meeting followed by a press conference looks like a significant one.The market is prepared that the ECB will not change policy now but will signal a rate hike at the end of July and complete its QE purchases by the end of this month. On the fundamental analysis side, this stance is much softer than competitors, continuing to put pressure on the euro.Helping the euro not to repeat the fate of the yen tomorrow might be the unexpected resolve of the ECB and a higher speed of monetary policy normalisation compared to the US. The euro zone’s monetary authorities are bound by the region’s weak macroeconomic performance and high debt burdens in several countries. Europe finds itself somewhere in the middle between the US and Japan regarding the balance of economic growth and the ability to digest rate hikes. The single currency could find itself in its dynamics against the dollar and yen somewhere between these poles.
Are Crypto A Fraud!? Find Out What Paul Krugman Said About Crypto. Bitcoin Is Ranging From $29-31.5K, ETH/USD Has Increased By 2.2%, Cardano (ADA) Gone Up As Well (+9.8%)

Are Crypto A Fraud!? Find Out What Paul Krugman Said About Crypto. Bitcoin Is Ranging From $29-31.5K, ETH/USD Has Increased By 2.2%, Cardano (ADA) Gone Up As Well (+9.8%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.06.2022 08:43
Bitcoin continues its wild swings between $29-31.5K. By the end of the day on Tuesday, it had moved sharply back to the upper end of the range, but Wednesday began with a new dip, temporarily falling below 30K. Overall, bitcoin adds 2.7% over the day and has lost 4% in seven days, all well below the intraday fluctuation amplitude.Ethereum has added 2.2% in the last 24 hours, while other leading altcoins have shown mostly positive dynamics, where a 9.8% spike in Cardano contrasts with a 0.3% decline in Solana’s price.Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, strengthened by 2.2% overnight to $1.24 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index down 0.2 points to 46.6%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 2 points to 17 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. According to Glassnode, investors continue to buy the dip in bitcoin. The number of addresses with a balance of at least 0.01 BTC reached 10.088 million earlier this week, setting a new record.The market dynamics of the last few days indicate that the whales are making some big transfers of bitcoin from one pocket to another. Either this is an attitude of speculation in the range or whipping up froth to attract capital from retail investors who may feel that the low point has been passed.The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into the sale of BNB tokens by cryptocurrency exchange Binance in 2017. The regulator will assess whether it was an unregistered offering of securities.American economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman called cryptocurrencies a fraud, comparing them to the mortgage crisis in 2008.
Nasdaq100 is likely set to fall to long-term support with a 13% downside

Nasdaq100 is likely set to fall to long-term support with a 13% downside

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.06.2022 15:26
Late last week, the Nasdaq100 failed to break above the 61.8% mark of the decline from March to May amplitude. The sharp deterioration of last Friday, the failed attempt to get back up on Monday and the renewal of the local lows by the index futures at the beginning of the day on Tuesday is a possible prologue to a further downward spiral.As with the first wave of declines from December to March, the fall was over 20% before we saw a corrective bounce. At the end of March, the stock’s recovery depleted on the approach to the 200-day moving average. Last week the bears took over the initiative as the Nasdaq100 was approaching 13000, close to which was the significant support area of early 2021 and the 61.8% level of the global advance from the lows of March 2020 to levels of late 2021. Thus, the market has not reached a new level of recovery.The market sentiment right now is more inclined to think that the rise in the last week of May was just a rebound in a falling market. If so, then the next logical target for the bears will be the 11500 area - the previous local lows. If that too falls under the pressure of worsening macroeconomic data, it is worth preparing for a pullback to 11000, a significant round level near the 200-week moving average. The latter line has been solid support in the declines of the Nasdaq100 since 2010 though now and from 1989 to 1995 when the dot-com rally ripped the index off its long-term trend.While the Nasdaq100 at one time looked almost as detached from its long-term trend as it did at the turn of the century, it would still be too premature to adjust for a commensurate loss to 85% of the peak as it did 20 years ago.
The market did not price in the RBA’s hawkish surprise, but it should

The market did not price in the RBA’s hawkish surprise, but it should

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.06.2022 10:30
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise momentarily undervalued by the markets. The RBA raised the rate to 0.85%, immediately 50 points after a 0.25% hike last month and expectations for a repeat this time.A big hike to curb inflation was backed by fast price growth by strong demand for Australian export. And it was just a repeat of such hikes in other advanced economies, including New Zealand. The stronger-than-expected rate hike caused a legitimate initial surge of 0.8% in the first minute. But surprisingly, this move proved unsustainable, and the AUDUSD soon dipped below levels before the decision’s release.From the chart, it is easy to see the sustained pressure on the Aussie for the third day after touching the 200-day average. This line was also a significant obstacle in early May, immediately after the reaction to the first policy tightening.Nevertheless, looking at the prospects for Australia from a fundamental analysis perspective makes it doubtful that a bearish success in the Aussie would be anything more than a local victory. The tone of the RBA comments suggests that we could see a repeat of today’s move in another month. Since the RBA meets 11 times a year, rather than 7–8 or 4 as in many developed countries, the pace of policy tightening is greater than that of the competition.It is worth noting that the Australian monetary authority has more room to raise rates. Record commodity prices support economic activity (GDP added 0.8% QoQ and 3.3% YoY in Q1) and spur currency inflows into the country, increasing the room for manoeuvre for the central bank.Today we see a repeat of the pattern as the currency market reacted to the sharp rate hike in New Zealand. However, by zeroing in on its initial momentum, the NZDUSD strengthened by more than 2% in the subsequent five trading sessions, and the chances are high that the AUDUSD will repeat this pattern.Furthermore, it is also worth bearing in mind that we are in a world where not every central bank can raise its rate by 50 points several times in a row without risking a recession. So, the Aussie might perform “above the market” in the medium term, naturally gaining on most competitors aside from the NZD and USD.
(BTC) Bitcoin – Sinking fast | Oanda

Bitcoin Price (USD) Plunged! BTC/USD - Is It A Significant Loss!? "37% Of People Want Crypto To Be A Legal Tender!" | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.06.2022 09:13
Bitcoin rose 4.9% on Monday, ending at around $31.5K. However, on Tuesday morning, the first cryptocurrency collapsed 7% to $29.5K, the second such bear attack in the past seven days. Both were of similar magnitude, but the latter should have a more considerable negative effect. It more than offset Monday's gains and temporarily brought the price back to levels from May 30. The BTCUSD consolidation has been going on for more than a month. Earlier it was formed as a triangle with decreasing amplitude of fluctuations, but since the end of last month, it became more like a sideways pattern, from which it makes several failed attempts to break upwards. The market dynamics this Tuesday morning are a reminder that the market cannot now rally again as it did in 2020. Bitcoin's prolonged sideways slide is turning current prices into the norm, although current levels seemed like a good buy for the long term two months ago. 2018 and 2019 teach us that such consolidations can last for months and often lead to new selloffs from frustrated fast earners. In our view, the bitcoin bear market is not over yet, although it has made a significant part of its way down. The market is full of rumours that short-term buyers have already capitulated, backed up by Kathy Wood. But the whole bear market rarely ends at this phase. Far more often, a bull market begins when medium-term investors and even some long-term investors capitulate, bringing stressed market professionals into play. It is unlikely to reach this point before the price returns to the highs of 2017. Bitcoin's short-term volatility is irrelevant, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said. He said BTC is the surest thing in a very volatile world and is more suited to long-term investment rather than trading. According to a survey by The Economist, 37% of respondents in the world's leading economies are interested in having their governments adopt cryptocurrencies as legal tender.
Will Biden Make Green Energy Stocks Rise Soon!? Is Crude Oil Production In The USA About To End!? | FxPro

Will Biden Make Green Energy Stocks Rise Soon!? Is Crude Oil Production In The USA About To End!? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.06.2022 16:15
Oil was bought during the downturns on Thursday and Friday, with most buying activity taking place during the US trading session. On Thursday and Friday, buying in US trading took the price out of the initial drawdown, closing the day near intraday highs. Interestingly, this did not trigger stop orders during Asian trading, indicating an impressive supply in Asia and Europe. There is news that Saudi Arabia has raised selling prices for Asia next month. Typically this news causes a steady rise in quotations, but this time the opening spurt failed to hold, and at the time of writing, WTI and Brent are losing around 1.6% since the start of the day. Weekly inventory and production data indicate that the US is in no hurry to ramp up production. Friday's data from Baker Hughes noted the number of drilling rigs operating at 574, the same as a week earlier and two lower than three weeks ago: an apparent stagnation, contrary to high prices, the looming roadtrip season and high prices. Even earlier last week, the official EIA report noted the third week of declining commercial inventories with the continued sell-off in oil reserves, which are already at their lowest level since 1987. The USA is not yet in a hurry to increase production, which further fuels the local price increase. Today Biden is expected to unveil a new support package for alternative energy. The continued focus on clean energy in the world's largest economy will deter oil producers from investing heavily in conventional production. The higher rate of OPEC+ quota increases suggests that the cartel considers current levels attractive for raising its share. In this environment, it will not be surprising if we see more inclination to increase production from conventional oil producers in the coming weeks.
Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold...? Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Decreased On Friday | FxPro

Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold...? Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Decreased On Friday | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.06.2022 12:12
Gold lost 1% to $1850 on Friday, declining under pressure from the overall pull from risky assets. For short-term traders, it is also telling that this decline mostly erased the gains of the first few days of the month and prevented the rebound from turning into new upside momentum. Gold came up against the resistance of sellers on Friday, as it did a fortnight ago, trying to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the highs of April near $2000 to the lows of May, below $1790. The following potentially significant level is the $1840 area, where the 200-day moving average passes. In early June, the buyers prevented gold from getting below that line, but it makes sense to expect that the bears have entirely abandoned the idea of breaking below it. It is also interesting that an increase in central bank buying accompanied the fall in the price of gold in April. For April, new data from the World Gold Council showed net purchases by global central banks of 19.4 tonnes after net sales in March. Central bank purchases should not be taken as a bullish signal for the market as regulators often acted as market stabilisers by selling in the early 2000s during one of the strongest rallies. Uzbekistan (+9.4t), Turkey (+5.6t) and Kazakhstan (+5.3t) were the most substantial buyers of gold. Sales were more modest, with Germany (-0.9t) and Mexico and the Czech Republic (-0.1t each) contributing the most. In our view, net purchases of gold by EMs and sales by developed economies indicate a relatively benign financial environment in the global economy. Otherwise, EMs were forced to sell gold to protect their currencies from declines.
Altcoins News: These altcoins will rise or plunge alongside Bitcoin in 2022

End Of Bitcoin (BTC) Caused By Digital Currencies!? BTC/USD Has Gained 4.6%. Crypto Fear And Greed Index Hit 13! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.06.2022 09:30
Bitcoin rose 3.1% over the past week, finishing near $30,000. Ethereum added 0.9%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 10.7% decline (Solana) to a 23.2% rise (Cardano). The new week is off to a promising start. BTCUSD has added 4.6% in the last 24 hours, more than 4% since the start of the day and is again testing the $31.0K mark. Cryptocurrency investors were not spooked by Friday's market decline, as key stock indices were above the recent local lows and had been adding in recent hours. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 3.8% in 24 hours to $1.28 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index adding 0.2% over the same period to Friday's 46.5%. By Monday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose from 10 to 13 points. For about a month now, this indicator has been steadily below 20 - in a state of extreme fear. While at current levels, BTCUSD remains below the consolidation area at the lows of the middle of last year. It is worth paying attention to the change in the trend seen in the weekly candlesticks. Last week's lows and highs were higher than the week before. The intraday charts show that the price is being pushed up in the absence of investors in the USA. However, one must make sure that this demand is global. Retail investors may try to promote the start of the rise by feeding them an abundant supply. BTC was climbing to three-week highs but lost almost all its gains by the end of the week. The first cryptocurrency has been trading in a sideways range around the $30,000 level for more than three weeks. The bearish trend in the market has caused long-term investors to capitulate. This factor signals that the price has reached a multi-year bottom, according to CryptoQuant. Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar believes central banks' digital currencies could completely displace private virtual currencies, including bitcoin. May proved to be a bad month for BTC and ETH miners. Bitcoin miners' earnings fell 21.9% for the month, while miners of the second cryptocurrency fell 24.1%. The market will draw its attention to The annual Consensus 2022 this week. This year's Crypto Industry Excellence Expo will be hosted in Austin, Texas, in June 9-12.
Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Increased By 2.4%, ETH Gained 0.2%, Solana (SOL) Price Added 4.1%. Crypto Market Crash: How Long Will "Bearish Phase" Remain? | FxPro

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Increased By 2.4%, ETH Gained 0.2%, Solana (SOL) Price Added 4.1%. Crypto Market Crash: How Long Will "Bearish Phase" Remain? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.06.2022 09:25
Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $30.5K in the past 24 hours. Ethereum added 0.2% to $1820. Ether was unexpectedly among the laggards. Altcoins from the top 10 rose from 1.5% (BNB) to 4.1% (Solana).Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.8% overnight to $1.26 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index added 0.2% to 46.3%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down 3 points to 10 by Friday and remains in “extreme fear”.Bitcoin rebounded on Thursday after falling sharply the day before. The strengthening was helped by a weaker dollar and positive stock indexes. The local downtrend (former consolidation triangle from May 10) turned into a support line. For the short term, this is good news. However, it is worth remembering that this is a fragile structure that could be broken by both a stronger dollar and a market reaction to labour market news. Bitcoin has already reached the “bottom” in the current cycle of decline and will not fall below $25,000, said former BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange CEO, Arthur Hayes. However, a market trend reversal should be expected when the Fed stops raising rates.According to BTC.TOP CEO Jiang Zhuoer, the bearish phase will end in six months. A possible driver for this could be the Ethereum update, which should occur between October and December. Another bullish factor will be the US Federal Reserve’s refusal to hike rates.According to a Goldman Sachs survey, 6% of global insurance companies have invested or want to invest in cryptocurrencies. According to the Economist Impact survey, a growing number of investors see digital currencies as a useful tool for portfolio diversification.
Downside sensitivity builds up in oil

Downside sensitivity builds up in oil

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.06.2022 13:03
Crude oil is down for a third consecutive day, having lost more than 2% earlier on Biden’s comments that the West might agree to buy Russian oil at a discount instead of an embargo.In addition, the US media is reporting that Saudi Arabia will replace the oil that has left the market due to falling production in Russia. The Saudis officially deny such agreements. They also deny that they are willing to exclude Russia from the OPEC+ quota calculations as it cannot even come close to them. We noted earlier in the week that news of a potential EU embargo on Russian oil was not accompanied by a logical rise in prices attributed to the “sell the facts” pattern.However, the latest news outlines the features of a new reality, where the oil supply might not quickly and directly suffer. And this is working to cool the price, which recently touched an area of extremes.Separately, the strengthened pull into the dollar is locally playing against oil. Upbeat macro data is boosting market confidence in further rate hikes in 50-point increments, tightening the financial conditions to which oil is so responsive.In our view, the bulls can no longer meaningfully push the price up. Positive news for oil is already priced in or has a limited impact in time and strength. Negative news, on the other hand, the market is working out very well.Later today, US oil and gas inventory and production trends are worth looking at. If new data shows an increase in US production with moderate consumption, it could trigger a sell-off in oil. The opposite situation - stagnating production and rising inventories are unlikely to push the price to new levels.This year has a risk of repeating the extreme performance we saw in 2014 when a flood of news about production growth in Saudi Arabia and the US and monetary policy tightening took more than 60% off oil in seven months. We may not yet be at a turning point, but it could be about a month or two away.
"Crypto-assets are very risky and need proper regulation". (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Went Down By 5.6%, ETH/USD Decreased By 6.1%, Solana (SOL) Lost 11.5%! | FxPro

"Crypto-assets are very risky and need proper regulation". (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Went Down By 5.6%, ETH/USD Decreased By 6.1%, Solana (SOL) Lost 11.5%! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.06.2022 10:23
Bitcoin collapsed 5.6% in the past 24 hours, retreating again below the $30K mark. Ethereum lost 6.1%, while leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 5.2% (BNB) to 11.5% (Solana). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 5.3% overnight to $1.23 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.2% to 46.1%. By Thursday, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 4 points to 13. Bitcoin fell sharply in the US session on Wednesday, along with stock indices, following a strong ISM Manufacturing PMI release. The data raised expectations of the US Fed monetary policy tightening. A stronger dollar and reduced risk traction in stock markets interrupted BTC’s flight, which returned to the previous sideways range it had been trading since mid-May. The Solana blockchain network suffered another disruption on Wednesday. Solana’s validators failed to process new blocks for eight hours, leading to a complete shutdown of all its applications. Executives at two Australian banks, ANZ and NAB, said they do not plan to allow their retail customers to trade crypto assets due to the high risks of losing funds. Heng Swee Keat, deputy prime minister of Singapore, warned retail investors against investing in cryptocurrencies, recalling the collapse of Terra and UST. Crypto-assets are very risky and need proper regulation, he said. Following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) plans to issue a second, even more “conservative” version of its recommendations on cryptocurrency regulation. Harvard University’s anti-digital experts have urged US lawmakers to resist the pressure of crypto investors and not make any easing of the crypto industry.
Luna Foundation Guard sold 80,081 BTC (Bitcoins)!? Ethereum Price (ETH/USD) Has Decreased By 2.5%, (ADA) Cardano Added 6.5% | FxPro

Luna Foundation Guard sold 80,081 BTC (Bitcoins)!? Ethereum Price (ETH/USD) Has Decreased By 2.5%, (ADA) Cardano Added 6.5% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.06.2022 09:46
Bitcoin slowed late Tuesday afternoon, retreating from local highs near $32.3K to $31.5K. Ethereum has lost 2.5% in the past 24 hours to $1930. Other altcoins in the top 10 are losing between 0.3% (BNB) and a 6.5% increase (Cardano) over the day. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined by 1.3% overnight to $1.30 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index rose another 0.3% to 46.3%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were up 1 point to 17 by Wednesday but still in “extreme fear”. Bitcoin updated three-week highs above $32,300 on Tuesday, continuing the previous day’s rising momentum. According to CoinShares, institutional investors invested $87 million in crypto funds last week, reaching $0.52 billion since the start of the year. Glassnode notes that most HODLers continue to build up their positions in bitcoin. A possible signal of the end of the bear market could be the capitulation of long-term investors, who sold BTC last week at an average loss of 27% compared to the quotes at the time of purchase. The crypto market is still full of optimists, while a real bull market is more likely to sprout from despair or oblivion. We saw despair in March 2020 and an example of oblivion - more than a year of decline since the December 2017 peaks. It has now been half as long, so we should be prepared to see a rally in a falling market in the coming months, but not a repeat of the October 2020 to April 2021 rise. Bitcoin ended May down 17.1%, failing to live up to historical trends indicating a relatively successful month. The crypto market was adversely affected by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. According to Glassnode, Luna Foundation Guard sold 80,081 BTC in May to support the UST stablecoin. In terms of seasonality, June is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 11 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four. The average rise was 16.7%, and the average drop was 11.3%. In the first case, BTC could end June at around $37,000, recouping almost all of May’s decline, while in the second, it could end June at near $28,200.
Will ETH Beat BTC? Are BTC ETFs Coming Shortly? Extreme Fear! Bitcoin Price (1 BTC) Has Neared $32K! BTC Gained 7% Yesterday, Ether Price (ETH/USD) Increased By 8.2% And Cardano Price (ADA/USD) Added 14.8% | FxPro

Will ETH Beat BTC? Are BTC ETFs Coming Shortly? Extreme Fear! Bitcoin Price (1 BTC) Has Neared $32K! BTC Gained 7% Yesterday, Ether Price (ETH/USD) Increased By 8.2% And Cardano Price (ADA/USD) Added 14.8% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.05.2022 08:55
Bitcoin jumped 7% on Monday, ending the day at around $31.2K. On Tuesday morning, positive momentum persisted, with the rate climbing above $32.0K, a 20-day high. Ethereum added 8.2%, while other top-ten altcoins gained between 4.9% (BNB) and 14.8% (Cardano). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 4.3% overnight to $1.31 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index rising 0.1 points to 46%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 6 points to 16 by Tuesday but still in “extreme fear”. Long-term? Due to the US bank holiday, markets were minimally active on Monday, but the momentum was on the plus side. The emerging rebound from the bottom may be self-sustaining at first, as many market participants believe that the crypto market has corrected enough to become attractive for long-term buying. Bank Of America And Crypto However, fundamentals such as halving, soft monetary policy or accelerated adoption are needed for growth to continue. But the latter is not easy right now. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has stated that the bank has no plans to introduce cryptocurrencies in the foreseeable future because the industry is too strictly regulated. After the Terra project collapsed, CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham compared investing in crypto-assets to buying lottery tickets, which can be expected to both win and lose. ETH With Bigger Market Capitalisation Than Bitcoin? Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal reiterated that in the long term, Ethereum, the leading smart contracts platform, will surpass bitcoin in terms of market capitalisation, trading volume and number of active wallets. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci noted the interest of large investors in spot bitcoin ETFs and suggested they could be launched as early as this year. Payments service MoneyGram plans to launch Stablecoin transfer services in partnership with Stellar.
S&P 500 Trades 10% Higher Than On May 20th, But Hawks Are About To Hunt Shortly, Probably Bringing Bear Market And People's Unwillingness To Spend Their Money | FxPro

S&P 500 Trades 10% Higher Than On May 20th, But Hawks Are About To Hunt Shortly, Probably Bringing Bear Market And People's Unwillingness To Spend Their Money | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 30.05.2022 15:18
US stock indices developed a strong rebound all last week. The S&P500 spot index reached 4200, gaining more than 10% from the lows of May 20. Such a rapid recovery has raised the question of whether we are seeing a brief bear market rally or whether the markets have passed the “bottom” of the correction. The situation looks like touching bear market territory was a red rag for the bulls, who have since turned to aggressive action. Fundamental factors are now on the side of the former, while technical analysis favours the latter scenario. Fighting With Inflation Or Supporting Economic Growth Monetary authorities in the USA and other developed economies are increasing the pace of monetary policy tightening, focusing on fighting inflation rather than supporting economic growth. We continue to get bearish signals from this perspective, as the economy and markets have yet to feel the brunt of rates not seen in over ten years. Meanwhile, inflation and a slowdown in consumer demand due to high rates promise to eat into real corporate profits in the coming months. The tipping point in consumer activity is unlikely to come before we hear from the Fed that there will be no further rate hikes. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The S&P500 index has perfectly touched 61.8% of the rally from the lows of March 2020 to January 2022. We have seen some rallies in a falling market during the five-month decline. But so far, touching the formal bear market area (20% decline from the peak) in the S&P500 has attracted buyers. Moreover, by the time the lows were touched earlier this month, the market was already oversold, but there were also signs of divergence between the RSI on the daily timeframes and the index level. This is a clear indication that the selling was not as fierce as before. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM S&P 500 The very fact that the S&P500 took a 7-week-long losing streak, one of the longest in history, and has now shown a sharp rebound, is setting a positive mood. The last time we saw such a bullish awakening was in November 2020, after which the stock market added for more than a year, even though there seemed to be no room for growth. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
BTC update for June 29,.2022 - First donwside objective has been reached, potential for further drop  | InstaForex

"BTC is the most reliable asset in this very volatile world"!? Ether (ETH/USD) Decreased By Over 10% Throughout Last Week, Solana (SOL) Lost 14.8%. What About Polkadot (DOT)? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 30.05.2022 08:27
Bitcoin is down 2.5% over the past week, ending near $29,200. Ethereum lost 10.6%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 1% (Polkadot) to 14.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 2.4% over the week to $1.26 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index jumped 1.3 points to 44.9% over the same time due to the better performance of the first cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 10 points by Monday. However, this drop does not consider the positive market performance in the early hours on Monday. Bitcoin has closed lower for eight consecutive weeks, the longest sell-off streak in the first cryptocurrency’s existence. But the last two weeks have been very tentative declines. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News How Much Is 1 Bitcoin? On Monday morning, BTCUSD surpassed the $30K mark again and returned to last week’s highs, breaking above the downside resistance line in a strong move. It will be premature to talk about a bullish counteroffensive until Bitcoin gets above $30.6K, its horizontal resistance line since mid-May. Renewed risk appetite in global markets is fuelling hopes of a turnaround. Divergence in equity and cryptocurrency dynamics was conspicuous last week, highlighting the weakness of the crypto market. Bill Miller, head of investment firm Miller Value Partners, called bitcoin an effective means of accessing financial services regardless of military and economic situations Dan Held, business development director at crypto exchange Kraken, believes the current crypto crisis is not as severe as previous ones, as institutional players have entered the market in recent years and increased market liquidity. We would add that thanks to the expanded crypto market capacity, we haven’t seen as much of a surge in the bull cycle of 2021 as we did in 2013 and 2017, which explains the not-so-high ‘winter’ losses. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said he will always buy bitcoin. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM According to him, BTC is the most reliable asset in this very volatile world. Bill Miller, head of investment firm Miller Value Partners, called bitcoin an effective means of accessing financial services regardless of military and economic situations. Regulation of cryptocurrencies would help with the crisis in the crypto market, according to Deutsche Bank.
FX Update: USD jolted higher on fitful safe haven bid. JPY risks mount.

(USD) US Dollar: Brief Correction Or The Start Of A Downturn? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.05.2022 11:52
The Dollar is continuing its retreat, which started precisely two weeks ago. Over this period, the Dollar Index has retreated 3.5% from the 20-year highs, losing about half of the gains from the last leg of the rally since late March. And now the big question for investors and traders is whether we see a correction before a new wave of US currency strength or whether the highs reached were a peak for years to come, as they were in 2017 and 2020. While the picture is mixed, there are more factors in favour that buying the Dollar at current levels is not good. Many of the major central banks have verbally (Bank of England and ECB) or already actually (RBNZ, Bank of Canada) come out at the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes. Consequently, short-term bond yield spreads, which had driven the demand for the Dollar in the previous few months, are no longer driving the prices. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM The latest Fed minutes have indicated a “flexible approach” - a hint of willingness to reduce the pace of rate hikes in the event of economic problems. Before the Dollar’s retreat, there was a peak in 10-year Treasury yields, which declined from 3.2% to 2.8%. Yields have been hovering around that level for the last three days, falling back to the 50-day moving average. A pullback below this line could be the first signal of a break in the uptrend. In that case, be prepared for increased pressure on the Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM China Elsewhere, there are rumours that China is cutting its more than trillion-euro investments in US Treasuries, following the Russian experience with blocking the Central Bank reserves. However, China may be reducing its holdings for another reason: capital outflows and pressure on the currency due to the economic slowdown. The current uncertainty in the US debt market and the currency market is likely to resolve in the next few days and has a high chance of sending important signals to all markets, from FX and debt to cryptocurrency and commodities, over the coming weeks or even months. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
(USD/CNH) Yuan Could Fall Below 7.10 Per US Dollar (USD) In The Next Two Months | FxPro

(USD/CNH) Yuan Could Fall Below 7.10 Per US Dollar (USD) In The Next Two Months | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.05.2022 11:56
The yuan has been losing 1.6% in the past two days amid fears of an economic slowdown. This is a solid move compared to how unexpected the bad news was. In our opinion, the appreciation of the last two days should be seen as a continuation of the trend that started at the beginning of April. At that time, the renminbi definitively went against the current and succumbed to the Dollar’s general appreciation, and this weakening accelerated sharply at the end of April. The renminbi recovered some losses from May 12th to 24th, but it was just a recharge for yuan bears. USDCNH - US Dollar To Chinese Yuan The depth of the retreat in the USDCNH coincided with a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the initial move. China’s slowdown leads to a loosening of monetary policy, and Xi Jinping’s worrying comments set up markets that could see more economic measures in the coming days or weeks. This is especially important for the Chinese leader as 2022 is an election year, and the authorities will therefore try to create as favourable a macroeconomic backdrop as possible. A weaker CNY could give the Chinese economy a helping hand to boost exports. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM   In addition, the fact that monetary policy in China and the US is heading in opposite directions leads to a weaker renminbi. According to the psychoanalysis, the USDCNH could now target levels around 7.15 - the highs for 2019 and 2020 - where the 161.8% level of the move mentioned above also passes and where the renminbi could reach mid-July. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Crypto: Extreme Fear!? Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is Stable, But Ether’s (ETH) Performance Reflects The Pressure. What About Ripple And Stellar? | FxPro

Crypto: Extreme Fear!? Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is Stable, But Ether’s (ETH) Performance Reflects The Pressure. What About Ripple And Stellar? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.05.2022 09:34
Bitcoin ignored the positive dynamics of US stock indices on Wednesday, further reducing the amplitude of its fluctuations. The first cryptocurrency has been moving in a $29.5-30.0K range since the start of active trading in New York. We caution that this reduction in volatility risks turning into an explosion in the near term, potentially setting off momentum for a few days or weeks. BTC Price A formal break of consolidation would be considered a consolidation beyond the previous local extremes, which are located at $30.2K and $29.3K. Going beyond those limits in a sharp move promises to trigger a wave of liquidation of positions that the bulls and bears have brought closer to the current price due to low volatility and bored speculators in recent days. Outside of Bitcoin, the situation is more worrying. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, has fallen 1.6% in the last 24 hours to $1.25 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index is 0.4 points to 45.1%. Ether Price (ETH/USD) Ethereum lost 3%, dropping to 1915, the lower end of a steady trading range for the past two weeks. The daily candlestick chart clearly shows a sequence of increasingly lower local highs. This dynamic is a sure sign of a sustained sell-off in crypto, temporarily covered by Bitcoin’s stability. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Bitcoin’s stability against such an external backdrop may be nothing more than a temporary consolidation of capital in the most liquid cryptocurrency and is supported by improved sentiment in stocks. Crypto Fear And Greed Index The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 12 by Thursday and remains in “extreme fear”. Ripple lawyer Stuart Alderoty criticised the stance of US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and the SEC’s desire to seize administrative control of the cryptocurrency market. Stellar will provide its technology to the Central Bank of Brazil to develop the digital currency. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
ECB demonstrates hawkishness

Hawkish RBNZ has strengthened the NZD. Is there more to come?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.05.2022 12:07
More and more developed central banks are coming out with the pace of policy tightening in the USA. This morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its rate by 50 points to 2.0%, repeating its move in April. Analysts expected the decision, but NZDUSD strengthened by 1.4% to levels above 0.6500 hours after the decision. Since the beginning of last week, the NZDUSD has shown substantial gains after touching levels near 0.6200 Buyers were attracted by comments from the RBNZ on its willingness to continue to tighten monetary conditions. In today’s commentary, policymakers point out that raising the rate sooner and faster reduces the risk that inflation becomes sustainable. In its very hawkish comments, the RBNZ hints at a willingness to slow economic demand, i.e. slow growth. Since the beginning of last week, the NZDUSD has shown substantial gains after touching levels near 0.6200. Technical analysis points to a relatively bullish outlook for the pair. The RSI index has reversed to growth on the weekly timeframes after touching oversold levels. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM RSI and the price chart also indicates the potential for further growth On the daily charts, the bullish divergence of the RSI and the price chart also indicates the potential for further growth. The NZDUSD has corrected 23.6% from the February 2021 peak to the early May 2022 bottom, potentially paving the way for a stronger recovery towards 0.6700 due to the latest bounce. However, with the RBNZ’s resolve and the country’s favourable export conditions, we could well see the beginning of an extended kiwi trend which could return to 0.7200 in the next 12 months. The RBNZ example looks like one of the first indications of a broader trend, where other global central banks will adopt the Fed’s speed. Possibly they can surpass it, as they have done so many times in history, which would form a retreat of the dollar after almost a year of gains. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
(BTC) Bitcoin – Sinking fast | Oanda

Declining Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD)!? Ether Price (ETH/USD) Has Increased, AVAX Gone Down. Be ready for (BTC) Bitcoin to end consolidation with a drop | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.05.2022 09:00
Bitcoin’s fluctuations continue to shrink, meaning the spring is being compressed further. The lower bound of the trading range has moved to $29K, from where the BTCUSD has received support since the start of active trading in New York. The upper bound of the formed triangle has moved to $30.5K against current prices at $30.0K, reflecting a 1.8% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum has added 0.3% in the past 24 hours, with other altcoins in the top 10 from a 2.9% decline (Avalanche) to a 1.0% rise (BNB), but all faring worse than the crypto flagship. Total coin capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.1% to $1.28 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index up 0.4% to 44.7%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point to 11 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. The bitcoin price is in consolidation mode, equally dangerous for both bulls and bears. Both gain liquidity over time and get used to the current prices. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM On the market cycle side, the chances are higher than the current consolidation will culminate in a breakdown of the lower boundary and liquidation of stop orders, reinforcing the initial downside momentum. Behind the pessimistic outlook is a tightening of monetary policy with slowing economic growth, which puts retail investors in the mode of withdrawing capital from cryptocurrency in favour of consumption. It does not help that the expectations of getting rich fast through cryptocurrencies are not paying off, as bitcoin is worth as much now as it was in early 2021. The ECB warned that the high correlation between cryptocurrency and stock markets... Investing in the industry is becoming more professional, moving beyond naïve attempts to buy and hold. According to CoinShares, investors are withdrawing money from bitcoin and investing in blockchains that support smart contracts, such as Cardano and Polkadot. Net capital outflows from crypto funds last week amounted to $141m. The ECB warned that the high correlation between cryptocurrency and stock markets is usually seen in times of dire economic conditions and will no longer allow the diversification of investment portfolios with digital assets. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Rising Euro, recovery from oversold helping Gold

Rising Euro, recovery from oversold helping Gold

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.05.2022 13:47
Gold has added for the fifth consecutive trading session - the longest streak since early April. Intraday yesterday gold reached $1865, having retreated to $1860 now.Although Gold’s prolonged rise in early April turned into a sell-off of almost three times the amplitude and duration, there are signs that we see the beginnings of a more sustainable move this time around.In early May, the daily gold charts developed an oversold RSI. The recovery from oversold conditions supports the local demand for Gold. A return above the 200-day moving average by Gold is also playing on the bulls’ side locally. A dip below could well be seen as a false breakout. A recovery above the significant trendline, the 200-day average, acts as additional psychological support.A third important reason to buy Gold is the strengthening of the Euro. Since early April, a strong positive correlation between Gold and the EURUSD exchange rate has been well established. This correlation was broken earlier in the year by the events in Ukraine and before that by the substantial divergence in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB.Nevertheless, it is easy to see that the Euro and Gold are moving together over the longer term in quiet times. Perhaps we are now seeing the beginning of a medium-term correction of the Euro thanks to increasingly hawkish signals from the ECB.The nearest important test of the bulls’ intentions could be the $1875 area - the November highs. If it succeeds, investors and traders should keep an eye on the dynamic at $1910, where the bulls’ attack stopped at the beginning of May this year and at the end of May 2021
"Many Crypto-Sphere Projects Are About To Fall"! | Bitcoin’s tedious walk around $30K | FxPro

"Many Crypto-Sphere Projects Are About To Fall"! | Bitcoin’s tedious walk around $30K | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.05.2022 10:20
Bitcoin continues its tedious walk around $30K in a narrow range of $28.6-30.6K. Ethereum lost 0.4%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell between 1% (XRP) and 2% (Solana). The exception was Binance Coin (+2.9%). Bitcoin reversed from the upper end of its range for the past two weeks The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, fell 0.8% overnight to $1.33 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.5% to 42.1%. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 2 points to 12 by Tuesday and remains in “extreme fear”.The dynamics of the first cryptocurrency in recent days seem to have become determined by the balance of power between bulls and bears, but not the stock market dynamics. The latter showed gains on Monday, while bitcoin reversed from the upper end of its range for the past two weeks.CoinShares data for last week showed a record weekly outflow of institutional investors from crypto funds since the start of the year. Funds are operating cautiously, and their actions may be holding back growth while buying on the dips comes from retail and crypto-kits. Thus, the market is distilled from sporadic participants who want to “ride the wave” but are not crypto enthusiasts by nature. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM According to Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, many crypto-sphere projects are about to fall Without the hype inherent in the golden days’ for crypto, the flow of money into the industry is drying up, a cruel test of strength. Over the past two weeks, investors have withdrawn more than $10bn (13%) from Tether’s USDT stable coin. According to Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, many crypto-sphere projects are about to fall. But that is not stopping lobbyists from promoting cryptocurrencies as a long-term investment vehicle. A bill has been introduced in the US House of Representatives that could lift restrictions on crypto investments by pension funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
GBP rally as a signal that the worst of the markets is over

GBP rally as a signal that the worst of the markets is over

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.05.2022 11:14
GBPUSD is trading near 1.2560, having added 3.3% to the monthly lows of May 13. We see a smooth recovery in the Pound from those lows, which is also in line with some easing of risk pull in global markets.The 0.65% strengthening of GBPUSD on Monday morning looks like a signal that the recovery in risk demand has moved from a corrective bounce after oversold levels but is getting on a more serious track, bringing the pair back to the levels of the beginning of the month. Interestingly, the Pound is giving even stronger signals of risk demand recovery than Bitcoin or the US stock indices, where we saw new multi-month lows inside on Friday afternoon.The performance of GBPUSD as one of the most liquid yet risk-sensitive currency pairs points to a return of buyers that has gone further than a formal oversold correction after a three-week-long sell-off.The currency market often acts as a leading indicator of a reversal of established trends, and we are likely to see one such signal from the British currency.A recovery in risk demand in the markets and GBPUSD reaching 1.2750 as early as this week could be an additional confirmation signal that forex was the first to recover from the bearish pressure. However, it won't be possible to fully say that markets have digested the crisis of recent months until the GBPUSD consolidates above 1.3000, a level that has become the informal line separating the most acute periods of market fear from attempts to recover to normalcy over the past six years.
(BTC) Bitcoin – Sinking fast | Oanda

"Cryptocurrencies have no value and are not based on anything." - said Christine Lagarde (ECB). Bitcoin Has Decreased By 3.6%, ETH Gone Down By 5.8%, XRP And ADA Declined As Well | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.05.2022 09:23
Bitcoin is down 3.6% over the past week, ending near $29,900. Ethereum lost 5.8%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 5.4% (XRP) to 9.2% (Cardano). The exception was Binance Coin (+3.3%). By Monday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is down 4 points to 10 According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalisation of the crypto market has changed little over the past seven days at 1.29 trillion, as the decline at the beginning of the last week was largely reversed by its end. By Monday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is down 4 points to 10. Bitcoin has declined for seven consecutive weeks amid a sell-off in stock markets. Bitcoin is in its 13th day of trading through the $30K level. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said that the altcoin market will collapse by another 70% Over the weekend, we saw almost traditional buying by retail investors, but their strength only allowed them to bounce back from Friday's losses. If we look at Bitcoin as a leading indicator of risk demand rather than tailing off moves in the S&P500 or Nasdaq, we may well be in a situation where the tail rules the dog. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said that the altcoin market will collapse by another 70% with US Fed policy and a bearish trend. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he only invests in assets that "deliver returns". In his view, cryptocurrencies do not fall into that category. Billy Marcus, one of the creators of Dogecoin, said the cryptocurrency market is a mix of unhealthy optimism, FOMO, panic, scams, gambling, and widespread stupidity. He said he has not been involved in the DOGE project for more than 7.5 years but describes himself as a coin supporter. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News ECB head Christine Lagarde said that, unlike central bank digital currencies, cryptocurrencies have no value and are not based on anything. A group of G7 finance ministers pointed to the importance of accelerated legislation to regulate digital assets following the collapse of the UST stable coin and LUNA cryptocurrency.
FX Update: USD jolted higher on fitful safe haven bid. JPY risks mount.

Has the US Dollar (USD) reversed to a decline? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.05.2022 13:26
Has the dollar reversed to a decline? The dollar in the foreign exchange market is correcting some of the gains of the past three months. The dollar index has retreated below 103 after touching 105 a week ago. The retreat of the US currency goes against a wide range of peers and several asset classes. 10-year Treasury yields, which peaked near 3.2% last week, are still declining. Such dynamics reflect investors’ hesitation regarding the prospects for the US economy, around which recession risks are mounting. The decline in long-term bond yields indicates investors’ doubts that the Fed will be able to raise and keep rates high for a long time, and it reduces the attractiveness of investing in the dollar. But it is also worth noting the work of other central banks, which are closing the gap between their policy and Fed sentiment by tightening their rhetoric almost daily. However, the dollar’s weakness is contained within the framework of a correction after a tumultuous rally. Talking about a break of the short-term uptrend is only appropriate if the Dollar Index falls below 102.30, where the lows of May and the 61.8% area of the last rising momentum from the start of April are concentrated. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM A break of the latest uptrend is evidence that a false break-up of the long-term resistance at 103.0, earlier this month, was achieved. However, it has to be noted that the observed weakening of the dollar might be no more than a temporary respite for several reasons. The pullback in yields of the Treasuries could be a technical correction after a rally like we have seen many times since the middle of last year. So far, US monetary tightening is moving and set to move to proceed at a higher pace than the major competitors. Other DM central banks are shy to make 50 points step up and are even further away from raising the key rate by 350 points in the year to March expected from the Fed. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Concerns about the economy may be exaggerated as demand remains pretty robust and the labour market is burning, promising growth in income (respectively) and household spending. Suppose a new round of growth follows a temporary pullback in the US currency. As we previously expected, this momentum could remain in place until 120, returning the dollar’s strength to that of the start of the millennium.
Crypto Weekly: Unfamiliar territory

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Entrenched At $30K, Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP) Have Gained! | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.05.2022 11:17
Bitcoin fluctuates around $30K and has crossed that line daily in one way or another over the past 12 days. A 3.5% increase in the day’s results on Thursday turned into another pullback on Friday morning. Ethereum has strengthened by 3.5% in the past 24 hours, finding itself pegged at $2000. By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is unchanged at 13 points (“extreme fear”) Other altcoins in the top 10 gained between 0.4% (Solana) and 5.5% (XRP). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinGecko, rose 3.1% overnight to $1.28 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1% to 44.8%. By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is unchanged at 13 points (“extreme fear”). Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said his company would buy bitcoin at any price until it reached a million dollars Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market’s protracted tug-of-war promises to resolve with a strong move in one direction. However, there is hope for both bulls and bears. The latter has a minor advantage, as we saw this area touch down from above in January and June-July 2021. But now, all the fighting is concentrated below. Among the crypto news that caught our eye: MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said his company would buy bitcoin at any price until it reached a million dollars. Bitcoin’s drop below $30,000 last week came after a large volume of the cryptocurrency entered exchanges. According to IntoTheBlock, traders have sent around 40,000 BTC to exchanges since May 11. According to an audit report by accounting firm MHA Cayman, USDT stable coin issuer Tether Holdings Limited reduced its reserves in the commercial papers by 17%, improving the quality of its funds. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM The Ethereum development team said it would migrate the Ropsten test network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm on June 8 2022. According to the legislation, SEC chief Gary Gensler has warned that the regulator is ready to take new measures against unregistered cryptocurrency companies. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) believes that amid a rise in cryptocurrency crime, the watchdog must strengthen regulation of digital assets to crack down on fraud and manipulation. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
What is next turn for (TSLA) Tesla? Elon Musk-Twitter Interacting With Tesla Stock Price | FxPro

What is next turn for (TSLA) Tesla? Elon Musk-Twitter Interacting With Tesla Stock Price | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.05.2022 15:45
Tesla stock has always been more volatile than the stock market. It closed the Thursday session on the lowest level since last August, and it is a common question, what is the next turn for the leading EV producer. For now, it looks like the downside impulse is not over yet but did its main part. Musk’s deal with Twitter The list of variables in this stock ranks from the outlook for demand for electric cars (i.e., oil prices) and interest in the ESG agenda, including the economic outlook and monetary policy, and ends with the tone of the tweets of its founder, Elon Musk. But in recent days, it has also been affected by Musk’s deal with Twitter, where Tesla shares were used as collateral. For investors, the latest news of Musk’s potential break-up of the agreement to buy the social network is good news. The opposite is also true. The promotion of the deal has caused Tesla shares to sell off with acceleration in the market. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Locally, buyers are eyeing current levels to purchase Tesla Shares in the leading electric car maker are now trading 38% below their peaks at the start of April and 43% below their all-time highs in November last year. The company’s shares are looking better than many other pandemic favourites, which have zeroed in on all and much of the gains from the March 2020 lows, while Tesla has become about ten times more expensive in that time. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Locally, buyers are eyeing current levels to purchase Tesla, which is aggressively ramping up production and is well ahead of other electric car makers in sales in an era of record fuel prices. On the one hand, the technical analysis points to a return of the stock from oversold territory, which could be followed by both a recovery bounce and the start of a new wave of growth that could return the price to levels above $1000 in just a few weeks. On the other hand, the share price may not face much of an obstacle moving down another 10% from current levels, regaining half of the pandemic rally to levels near $650, where it has traded repeatedly since December 2020.
Bitcoin (BTC) is now better than the stock market but still in decline. Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By Over 4%, So Does Cardano (ADA) | FxPro

Bitcoin (BTC) is now better than the stock market but still in decline. Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By Over 4%, So Does Cardano (ADA) | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.05.2022 15:26
On Wednesday, Bitcoin was down 3%, ending the day around $29,200, remaining near that mark on Thursday morning. Ethereum lost 4.3%. Other altcoins in the top 10 fell from 1.8% (BNB) to 9.8% (Cardano). The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 13 by Thursday and remains in ‘extreme fear’ territory The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 3.6% overnight to $1.24 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.4% to 44.7%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 1 point to 13 by Thursday and remains in ‘extreme fear’ territory. Bitcoin resumed its decline on Wednesday amid a sharp weakening of US stock indices, which fell even more than BTC. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost more than 4% on Wednesday. The impressive oversold strength accumulated by the crypto market after it collapsed 40% from late March levels (versus 16% for the S&P500) temporarily limits the declining scale. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Nevertheless, the overall negative market sentiment has prevented the bulls from turning out in full force. So far, it isn’t easy to see reliable signs of oversold or rebound formation. We should be prepared for the cryptocurrency market to test support at last week’s lows again in the near term. We consider the area near 20K the final target for a potential selloff, which corresponds to Bitcoin’s long-term support line. Billionaire Bill Ackman said one of the main reasons for Terra’s collapse was a pyramid scheme of business Among the news that caught our eye were: Former US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke called Bitcoin a harmful currency. He lashed out at cryptocurrencies, calling them “a great tool for extortionists”. Binance lost $1.6 billion due to the collapse of Terra tokens on the exchange’s balance sheet. Billionaire Bill Ackman said one of the main reasons for Terra’s collapse was a pyramid scheme of business. Investors were promised a 20% yield backed by a token whose value was determined by demand from new investors. Microsoft has warned crypto investors of an increase in the activity of a new type of malware called Cryware South Korea’s Financial Services Commission, amid tensions in the Stablecoin market, is proposing to register cryptocurrencies based on their level of risk to investors. Microsoft has warned crypto investors of an increase in the activity of a new type of malware called Cryware, which allows the theft of assets from hot cryptocurrency wallets. Birgit Rodolph, executive director of the German BaFin, called for universal regulation of the DeFi industry across the EU. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Record-breaking but near-peak inflation in Britain

Record-breaking but near-peak inflation in Britain

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.05.2022 08:40
UK consumer prices rose by 2.5% in April, the second-biggest monthly gain in the indicator’s history since 1988. Annual inflation jumped from 7% to 9%, unseen in the indicator’s history. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs The longer-established retail price index last saw a high annual growth rate (11.1% y/y in April) in 1982, while such a big monthly jump (3.4% m/m) was last observed in 1980. However, despite the horror that these figures represent, there are still indications that the UK’s peak annual rate of inflation will be much lower than in the 1980s (22%) or 1970s (27%). While Output Producer Prices are showing an acceleration in the annual growth rate, rising to 14%, Input PPI has slowed from 19.2% to 18.6%. Although remaining volatile in recent weeks, oil and gas have regularly retreated from highs, limiting upward pressure on prices. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points At the same time, there are growing questions about final global demand, which will constrain producers in shifting costs to consumers. Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting in mid-June and not copy the Fed’s 50-point move. This is moderately negative news for the British currency, which started to retreat from the $1.25 area on the data after a 2.9% rally from last Friday’s lows. Short-term traders should pay particular attention to the 1.2350 area. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Already, a dip lower this week would suggest that the brief period of recharging dollar bulls has ended. In this case, GBPUSD could quickly fall below 1.2000, making the 1.1500 area a potential ultimate target for this attack Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Crypto Market Crash: Can (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Reach Less Than $10K!? Dogecoin (DOGE) Hasn't Fluctuated Much! ETH Has Decreased By 1.2% | FxPro

Crypto Market Crash: Can (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price Reach Less Than $10K!? Dogecoin (DOGE) Hasn't Fluctuated Much! ETH Has Decreased By 1.2% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.05.2022 08:37
Bitcoin has been hovering around the 30K mark for a second day, forcing the rest of the crypto market to balance declines and gains. Ethereum has lost 1.2% in 24 hours but remains near 2,000. Altcoins from the top ten are mostly declining, losing between 0.7% (DogeCoin) and 3.8% (Polkadot). Tron is gaining 1.7% but has been little changed since the end of last week. Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined 1.1% overnight to $1.29 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 44.3%. Bitcoin has stalled at the psychologically significant 30K level The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 4 points to 12 by Wednesday and remains in “extreme fear”. The index’s recovery from lows since 2019 is due to a waning selloff but not a market reversal to growth. Bitcoin has stalled at the psychologically significant 30K level and has also lost the momentum of the rebound at the 76.4% Fibonacci line from the downward move from late March to last Thursday’s lows. This is a typical shallow counter-trend correction. The inability of the market to develop the offensive from the current levels would raise the question that the final target for the downtrend would be the 161.8% area of that move, which is near $11.3K. Such a setback would cancel out all upside momentum from October 2020. So far, this scenario looks exceptionally pessimistic and needs to converge the disappointment of crypto-neophytes on top of an actual collapse of the global economy and stock market. Such a dip would leave Bitcoin’s price at only 16% of its peak, which has happened several times in its history. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM However, a significant drop below previous cyclical highs ($20K) would be unusual, although Bitcoin was previously repurchased on similar drawdowns. Perhaps a more cautious scenario would be a dip into the $20-23K area to close the gap at the end of 2020 or a return to the 2017 highs. The realist-optimistic scenario points to the possibility of cautious buying by long-term investors from current levels. Following TerraUSD, another stable coin - DEI - lost its peg to the US dollar However, it does not suggest a new wave of explosive growth, as financial conditions and a return to the area at the start of 2021 are disappointing for those investors who have been buying cryptocurrencies as a way to make a quick buck. Moreover, inflation has weaned 10% off the dollar’s purchasing power over this period. Among the news that caught our eye were: According to CoinShares, institutional investors invested $274 million in crypto funds last week, a record since the start of the year. Following TerraUSD, another stable coin - DEI - lost its peg to the US dollar. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the stable coin market needs strict regulation. Because of the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, investors need more protection, or they could lose confidence in the markets, SEC chief Gary Gensler said. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The Portuguese authorities are considering introducing a tax on income earned from investments in digital assets. Dogecoin co-founder Billy Marcus called 95% of crypto-assets “trash” and suggested that 70% of investors don’t even understand the fundamentals of the crypto market.
Drivers Don't Want To Pay More For Petrol. Crude Oil Price: the latest upward momentum? | FxPro

Drivers Don't Want To Pay More For Petrol. Crude Oil Price: the latest upward momentum? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.05.2022 12:17
Crude oil has added 15% since last Wednesday, rising to $112/bbl WTI and $113/bbl Brent. Both grades reached new two-month highs on Tuesday morning, despite a decidedly bearish news backdrop. Since early April, WTI has seen a sequence of higher highs and higher lows A sharper than previously estimated slowdown in China and not yet agreed package with Russian Crude oil phased embargo was met with buying in Crude, despite those suggesting lower demand and higher supply. Since early April, WTI has seen a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Oil’s dip under the uptrend line last week only encouraged buyers, kick-starting the latest upward momentum. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM This is the third time Brent has reached that horizon, from which it has rolled back in April and early May. A consolidation above $114 could signal a new buying wave and quickly take prices to the $120 area - near the late March peaks. It should not be surprising if WTI becomes more expensive than the heavier Brent in a few weeks In this case, the North Sea Brent lags behind the US WTI as the supply-demand balance favours the latter. It should not be surprising if WTI becomes more expensive than the heavier Brent in a few weeks, restoring the historic balance broken by tight OPEC+ quotas and once rampant US production. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Nevertheless, be prepared that the oil rally that started from lows in April 2020, culminating in the war events in Ukraine, is coming to an end. The global economy and energy consumption are slowing to recover while the cartel continues to raise quotas. Temporarily, due to lower investment in production in previous quarters, OPEC has not kept pace with production increases. Still, this balance will change sooner rather than later, promising to keep the price from rising.
"(...) Bitcoin has no future as a payment network because of its low scalability and negative impact on the environment." | FxPro

"(...) Bitcoin has no future as a payment network because of its low scalability and negative impact on the environment." | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.05.2022 08:39
On Monday, Bitcoin was down 3.6%, ending the day around $29.9, but is trading back above $30K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum has little changed over the past 24 hours (-0.4%), remaining near $2000. Other altcoins from the top 10 changed in price from -2.7% (Polkadot) to 1.2% (Solana). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.1% overnight to $1.30 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.1 points to 44.3%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 6 points to 8 by Tuesday, hitting its lowest level since August 2019. Technically, the crypto market on Monday followed the cautious sentiment of the stock market. We note that after hitting lows on May 12th, a short-term upward channel is forming in BTCUSD with increasingly higher local lows and local highs. Such dynamics of the flagship crypto resemble the work of traders of institutional managers, who moderately “buy the fear” or fix the profit from the short positions. So far, there is little reason to argue that a prolonged rise will follow the current buying, as the fundamentals (tightening markets, slowing economy) remain in place. According to CryptoQuant, institutional investors continue to buy BTC through market makers despite the decline in the crypto market. Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, believes bitcoin has no future as a payment network because of its low scalability and negative impact on the environment. There is a need for an alternative blockchain-based Proof-of-Stake (PoS) protocol for payments. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva called for a new public infrastructure for payment systems, including digital currencies. Do Kwon, founder of the Terra ecosystem, presented a new plan to rehabilitate the project. On May 18th, the developer intends to present Terraform Labs team with a new management system for the Terra fork, decoupling it from the TerraUSD (UST) stable coin.
(SPX) S&P 500 Trades Near $4000 And Dow Jones (DJI) Is Not Very Far From $32K. Some May Say US Stock Markets Make Their Minds Flash Back To 2008 | FxPro

(SPX) S&P 500 Trades Near $4000 And Dow Jones (DJI) Is Not Very Far From $32K. Some May Say US Stock Markets Make Their Minds Flash Back To 2008 | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.05.2022 10:07
US stock markets closed last Friday with a substantial and widespread gain. Do we see a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a recovery? So far, there are more reasons to suspect the former. Technically, the S&P500 has managed to bounce back from a bear market territory and has temporarily returned to levels above 4000, while Dow is above 32000 The CNN Fear & Greed Index was down to 7 last week, rebounding to 12 by Monday. Current levels are still in extreme fear territory, but a rebound from multi-month lows often heralds a return of buyers who think the emotional sell-off has gone too far. Technically, the S&P500 has managed to bounce back from a bear market territory and has temporarily returned to levels above 4000, while Dow is above 32000. However, in our view, we saw positional profit-taking on Friday, but not the end of a downward trend. The weekly chart’s S&P500 and Dow Jones indices have not yet reached the oversold area where they appeared attractive for buying in March 2020. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Particularly worrying is the comparatively quiet nature of the sell-off. The market volatility index VIX remains the only one of the seven “Fear and Greed” components in neutral territory. The latter signals a systematic sell-off of assets rather than a panic flight. This is not a straightforward approach for the market to change. Treasury and Fed officials are often willing to flood the markets with liquidity in cases of extreme volatility. Still, without it, they see what is happening as a natural process in which it is harmful to interfere. So far, we can see the intention of a 50 point hike in the next two meetings in June and July after a similar move in May at the same time as the asset sales from the balance sheet The technical picture in the US indices now more closely resembles the first half of 2008. That means that the climax of the panic (October 2008) and the bottom (March 2009) are yet to come. This is also supported by the Fed’s rhetoric that hopes to avert an economic recession through policy tightening is prevented. So far, we can see the intention of a 50 point hike in the next two meetings in June and July after a similar move in May at the same time as the asset sales from the balance sheet. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Monetary tightening locally looks like a breeding ground for bears, who might target the area below 30000 in the Dow Jones, trying to close the gap near 28300 from November 2020. For the S&P500, the bears’ ultimate target might be the 3300-3400 area, where the pre-pandemic peak and the starting point of the rally in November after the Biden victory are concentrated. Perhaps only by zeroing in on all the coronavirus and retail-associated gains in equities and taking inflation into negative territory could we see an inflow of long-term capital into equities.
BTC update for June 22,.2022 - Breakout of the rising channel

Kiyosaki Is Expected To Buy BTC At $17K, Miller Sells. Bitcoin Has Lost 9.4% Over The Previous Week, Ether (ETH/USD) Gone Down By Over 16%, (SOL) Solana Price Lost Ca. 25% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.05.2022 08:25
Bitcoin is down 9.4% over the past week, ending at around $31,000. Ethereum lost 16.1%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 13.9% (Binance Coin) to 25.4% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 15% over the week to $1.30 trillion. Bitcoin has declined for six weeks in a row, along with stock indices The bitcoin dominance index jumped 2.9 points to 44.4% over the same period due to a sharp weakening of altcoins. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell 8 points in the week to 10 and continues to be in "extreme fear". By Monday, the index had climbed to 14 points, thanks to the cryptocurrency market's retreat from local lows at the end of last week. Bitcoin has declined for six weeks in a row, along with stock indices. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM A prolonged one-way move in Bitcoin was last seen in late 2018 when the first cryptocurrency hit a cyclical bottom. That was followed by many more months of sluggish momentum, so investors have an essential question: choose a low point to buy or join the move when it is certain. Prudence suggests that it is less risky to follow the second strategy. The story of the Terra (LUNA) crash and the TerraUSD stablecoin project added to the negativity on the crypto market, hitting all altcoins hard Last week's decline intensified after breaking through last year's lows near $30,000, becoming the most significant weekly drop since January. The story of the Terra (LUNA) crash and the TerraUSD stablecoin project added to the negativity on the crypto market, hitting all altcoins hard. According to Global Macro Investor CEO Raul Pal, May and June will be the most worrying months, so a new wave of sell-offs in the crypto market is inevitable. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Robert Kiyosaki, the world-famous author of the bestselling book Rich Daddy, Poor Daddy, is looking to buy bitcoin once it tests the 'bottom' at $17,000 Legendary investor Bill Miller said he sold some of his BTC holdings. Although bitcoin may continue to decline in the short term and even drop by half from current levels, Miller looks at bitcoin positively and expects it to grow over a long time. Robert Kiyosaki, the world-famous author of the bestselling book Rich Daddy, Poor Daddy, is looking to buy bitcoin once it tests the 'bottom' at $17,000. The businessman has once again expressed distrust of the US government.
Gold fights heroically against adverse conditions

Gold Price Fails Essential Support, But The Bulls Still Have A Chance | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.05.2022 11:34
A sell-off in the equity market and a new wave of flight to the dollar on Thursday provided the perfect combination to knock out gold, which slipped to $1810 in thin trading on Friday morning, falling to its lowest level since early February. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments Right now, it’s up to gold to decide whether we see a double top formation or whether the bulls are gaining strength and liquidity ahead of a new multi-month rising momentum. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal Yesterday, gold took a sharp plunge under the 200 SMA, which is often a bearish factor for the instrument. A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area This would open the way for another roughly 25% drop into the $1350 area, the area of the 2015-2018 highs. If we see an uptick in buyers’ in the hours and days ahead, we could say that gold is in a correction. Potentially, a reversal to the upside from these levels could signal the start of a new wave of long-term growth, the first impulse of which was in 2018-2020, followed by a prolonged wide side trend. A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area.
Crypto Market Crash: Bitcoin Seeing $28.6K, Altcoins - Ether (ETH) Has Gained 16%, Solana (SOL) 25%, Cardano (ADA) 41.4% | FxPro

Crypto Market Crash: Bitcoin Seeing $28.6K, Altcoins - Ether (ETH) Has Gained 16%, Solana (SOL) 25%, Cardano (ADA) 41.4% | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.05.2022 08:58
Bitcoin added 0.6% on Thursday, ending the day around $28,600, a modest gain but a significant intraday win. Bitcoin managed to find support near $25K on Thursday morning, reversing a multi-day decline. Since the start of the day on Friday, the rate has moved back above $30.5K (+6.9%). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, jumped 14% overnight to $1.32 trillion This could be both the start of an extended buying wave and a trap for the bulls. After serious oversold previous days, altcoins rose at a double-digit pace in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is adding 16%, once again above $2K. The top 10 other leading altcoins are soaring from 25% (Solana) to 41.4% (Cardano). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, jumped 14% overnight to $1.32 trillion. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down 2 points to 10 by Friday and remains in “extreme fear” The bitcoin dominance index lost 0.3 percentage points to 44.4% due to weaker altcoins. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down 2 points to 10 by Friday and remains in “extreme fear”, but it largely ignores the optimism of recent hours. Thus, the indicator’s current low levels might also attract “buy when you are scared” buyers. LUNA lost nearly 100% of its value Do Kwon, head of Terraform Labs, presented a recovery plan for the UST stablecoin. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency LUNA lost nearly 100% of its value. The Terra blockchain has halted. According to media reports, Do Kwon was previously behind Basis Cash – another failed stablecoin blockchain project. The USDT stablecoin price tested the $0.94 level on Thursday amid market turbulence. Paolo Ardoino, technical director of issuer Tether, said the company has enough reserves to buy back all assets at a 1:1 ratio to the US dollar. Tron founder Justin Sun saw signs of an imminent attack on the USDD algorithmic stack coin launched on the Tron network in May. Sun announced a $2 billion allocation from the TRON DAP Reserve organisation to prevent such a scenario.
US Stocks: S&P 500 (-2.01%), Nasdaq (-2.98%) And Dow Jones (DJI) (-1.58%) Decreased. Japan: Nikkei 225 Has Gone Down

Gold $1200 Scenario? After Higher US CPI Release, Fed Is Expected To Tackle Inflation, So Gold Price (XAUUSD) May Plunge Again | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.05.2022 15:38
Gold dipped to $1832 on Wednesday morning, pulling back to a critical support line in the form of the 200-day moving average, losing more than 11% from the peak levels reached in early March. Gold has been losing buyers amid a jump in US government bond yields Gold has been under systematic pressure for the past month and a half amid a rally in the dollar. In addition to this increase in the underlying price, gold has been losing buyers amid a jump in US government bond yields. However, it is too early to talk about a break in the uptrend in gold, but only a retreat into deep defences ahead of essential data. Most of the time, the correlation between inflation expectations and long-term bond yields governs the dynamics in gold. Weak real bond yields lead to a pull in the precious metal as investors look to protect the purchasing value of capital.  A significant event for the gold outlook is today’s US inflation release With high interest rates and inflation control, investors prefer to earn yields in bonds by selling off gold. A significant event for the gold outlook is today’s US inflation release. The market reaction to this event could be decisive for gold in the coming days or weeks. If gold manages to develop a pullback from current levels, we could see a sharp increase in buying over the next few days Consolidation below $1830 on the day would be an essential bearish signal that could rapidly decline towards $1800. Moreover, there would be an immediate question of double-top formation through 2020 and 2022 peaks as an early signal of a long-term downward trend with a potential of $1200. If gold manages to develop a pullback from current levels, we could see a sharp increase in buying over the next few days, as we did in early February and late November. But unlike those episodes, this time, the bears might not wait for a quick reversal, and a further rally would be an important signal that gold continues to claw its way out of the prolonged correction. In this case, the nearest stops might be the levels near $1900, and further, the market might quickly target a renewal of the historic highs above $2075 before the end of the year. 
Asian equities are mostly higher | Oanda

Inflation (US CPI) Rises, So Does US Dollar (USD)! (SPX) S&P 500 And Nasdaq Have Decreased! Is Hawkish Fed Going To Hunt Again? | FxPro |

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.05.2022 15:36
The dollar got a fresh boost, with stocks coming under renewed pressure after a new batch of US inflation data. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% The US consumer price index rose 0.3% in April after 1.2% a month earlier. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% but was higher than the expected 8.1% y/y. Particularly worrying for markets is the development of core inflation. The corresponding index added 0.6% m/m and 6.2% y/y last month, higher than the expected 0.4% and 6.0%, continuing the sprawl of inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response While the annual rate of core and core inflation seems to have peaked, higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response. With inflation far from the 2% target, the Fed will be inclined to act faster (raise rates more than 50 points at a time) or stop hiking at a higher level. A significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021 Locally, we see a tug-of-war around the dollar against the euro and yen near the lows of the past two weeks and swings against the pound and the franc near this week’s extremes. However, a significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021. The S&P500 and Nasdaq futures were also pushed back to this week’s lows, indicating continued bearish pressure.
Avalanche Price Declined By 10.8%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up A Little Bit, Bitcoin Price stabilised but has trouble to reverse strongly | FxPro

Avalanche Price Declined By 10.8%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up A Little Bit, Bitcoin Price stabilised but has trouble to reverse strongly | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.05.2022 10:01
Bitcoin added a symbolic 0.1% on Tuesday, ending the day around $31K and adding another $500 this morning. Ethereum has been adding 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 10.8% decline (Avalanche) to a 0.2% gain (Binance Coin). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, declined 1.6% overnight to $1.42 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.4% to 42.2%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 2 points to 12 by Wednesday, starting recovery from an area where it rarely lingered. Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson has announced the beginning of new crypto winter Although Bitcoin managed to close Tuesday’s trading with a proper strengthening, a powerful offensive did not happen, as bull buying was choked again by stock market pessimism. It remains a situation where the stock or debt markets will determine whether we see another rebound from the critical $30K level or a failure of support and a complete surrender of the buyers. Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson has announced the beginning of new crypto winter. However, he does not see any factors that could trigger the market to rebound soon. Read more: Making Interest On Crypto Holdings!? Aqru: Cryptocurrency Staking Platform | FXMAG.COM Cryptocurrency investment company Galaxy Digital reported a net loss of $111.7 million for the first quarter of this year. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz allowed bitcoin to decline further in the coming quarters due to the negativity on Wall Street. Meanwhile, last week saw an influx of institutional investors into crypto funds after four weeks of capital withdrawals. El Salvador has bought another 500 bitcoins at an average of $30,744 MicroStrategy chief executive Michael Saylor said it has no plans to sell its cryptocurrency reserves. He said bitcoin would have to fall below $3562 for the firm to have insufficient assets to secure loans. El Salvador has bought another 500 bitcoins at an average of $30,744 amid a fall in the crypto market. Last autumn, the country’s recognition of BTC as legal tender was a landmark event for the global economy.
Crypto Prices: Check Bitcoin (BTC/USD), ETH, Solana (SOL) And Avalanche (AVAX Price). Bitcoin Price At 30K, Back To The Bottom Of The Long-Term Range | FxPro

Crypto Prices: Check Bitcoin (BTC/USD), ETH, Solana (SOL) And Avalanche (AVAX Price). Bitcoin Price At 30K, Back To The Bottom Of The Long-Term Range | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.05.2022 08:42
Bitcoin collapsed 9.5% on Monday and dipped temporarily below $30K in early trading on Tuesday, stabilising at $31.3K. Ethereum has lost 3.9% in the past 24 hours, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 have fallen from 8.7% (Solana, Cardano) to 12% (Avalanche). Bitcoin's dominance index rose 0.3% to 41.8% on more altcoin weakness Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 7% overnight to $1.44 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance index rose 0.3% to 41.8% on more altcoin weakness. Terra and TerraUSD continue to lose ground The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point to 10 by Tuesday and remains in a state of "extreme fear", touching a low point for the seventh time in the past year. An even higher level of fear in the last four years that we have only seen in March 2020 and September 2019. The current plunge is a retouch of the lows made in January and July last year for the first cryptocurrency Terra and TerraUSD continue to lose ground. Against this backdrop, the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) has committed $1.5bn to protect the "stability of UST and the Terra ecosystem as a whole". Stablecoin UST, designed to be as close to the value of the USD as possible, lost more than 30% at one point overnight. But at the time of writing, it is trading at a 14% discount to the US currency. The current plunge is a retouch of the lows made in January and July last year for the first cryptocurrency. This could look like a last line of defence for the bulls, who may try to push back from the lower end of the trading range since early January. However, many markets are on a similar informal frontier separating a correction from a potential collapse, so the situation in the crypto market could largely determine sentiment in the deeper debt and equity markets. As we can see, Ether and Bitcoin remain resilient and robust enough to make them somewhat of a safe harbour within the stormy crypto sea Judging by the dynamics of Stablecoin, the crypto market is undergoing one of its most massive tests of the entire market periphery, which could determine the credibility of the crypto market for many months or years to come. As we can see, Ether and Bitcoin remain resilient and robust enough to make them somewhat of a safe harbour within the stormy crypto sea. At the same time, the collapse in quotations has not yet affected miners' confidence in the cryptocurrency's future, as the BTC network's hash rate continues to grow. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds, said that bitcoin should be in investors' portfolios. Still, the cryptocurrency itself is not a good competitor to gold in terms of inflation protection. But that could change in the next five to 10 years.
End Of Crude Oil Price Crisis!? Price Of Crude Oil Amid Said Arabia And G-7 Acts

End Of Crude Oil Price Crisis!? Price Of Crude Oil Amid Said Arabia And G-7 Acts

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.05.2022 15:09
Brent crude is back below $110/bbl, losing 2% since the start of the day on Monday. At the beginning of May, oil largely remained within the trends of previous months. There are still accumulating risks that oil will break down this support, giving the start of a correction. Since last month, bulls and bears have been concentrating on pulling the tug-of-war near the 50-day average Brent maintains an upward trend, but it is also running near a line that passes near the lows of the last five months. Since last month, bulls and bears have been concentrating on pulling the tug-of-war near the 50-day average, which has been pointing upwards since the beginning of the year. Saudi Arabia has cut its oil price premium to buyers in Europe and Asia Positively for oil, the G7 has declared a phase-out of Russian oil purchases, and OPEC has indicated a commitment to a rate increase of 432k a month. But at the same time, Saudi Arabia has cut its oil price premium to buyers in Europe and Asia. Locally, traders should pay attention to the dynamics of Brent near $112 Also playing out locally against oil was the news that Russia has stabilised production after a dip in April. In addition, drilling activity is picking up in the US, which promises a rise in output in the next few months. There is also more incentive for Saudi Arabia to increase its production. Brent remains in a triangle on the technical analysis side, retreating from its upper boundary. Locally, traders should pay attention to the dynamics of Brent near $112, where the area of previous local peaks is located. Bears, for their part, may cheer up in case of consolidation under $104, where purchases were strengthened last week. A move out of the 104-112 range could increase volatility in oil.
(BTC/USD) Bitcoin will fall until the bulls capitulate, ETH/USD Has Lost, (XRP) Ripple And (ADA) Cardano Have Decreased As Well

(BTC/USD) Bitcoin will fall until the bulls capitulate, ETH/USD Has Lost, (XRP) Ripple And (ADA) Cardano Have Decreased As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.05.2022 08:46
Bitcoin is trading near $33.5K on Monday morning, declining for the fifth consecutive day. Over the past 24 hours, losses are 2.3%, and are approaching 14% over the past seven days. Ether loses 3.5% in 24 hours and 14.3% for the week, settling near $2450. Altcoins from the top ten are down between 0.8% (XRP) and 4.3% (Cardano). This situation points to an increasingly rapid exit from cryptocurrencies Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, is down 2.3% overnight to $1.54 trillion. More worryingly, volumes are rising along with falling prices. This situation points to an increasingly rapid exit from cryptocurrencies, even though the process takes place without sharp dips. We see an orderly exit – a sure sign that downward sentiment may prevail. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has collapsed to 11 The optimists, however, have something to hang on to. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has collapsed to 11. Over the past year, the index has been at the current or lower level six times, and on each occasion, we have seen either consolidation or the start of a rally and a rebound. In March 2020, when the index similarly reached single digits, we saw an influx of long-term buyers. The current extreme fear may attract buyers who have been waiting for extreme oversold conditions to buy cryptocurrencies long term. In our case with Bitcoin, this could translate into a sharp acceleration of the sell-off after falling below $30K However, we note that the amplitude of crypto market fluctuations does not resemble either a capitulation of enthusiasts or a wave of stop orders triggering. Typically, a trend reversal is preceded by a sharp increase in momentum with the eventual resignation of those who stood against the trend. In our case with Bitcoin, this could translate into a sharp acceleration of the sell-off after falling below $30K, all the way to the $23K or even the $20K area. It is only from this level that major long-term buyers can be expected to emerge.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin lies at the bottom

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.05.2022 11:38
Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Monday, ending the day near $38.4K, cruising at arm's length from the $38K level for the past five days. Ethereum has settled near $2800, losing 0.5% over the past 24 hours. Other altcoins in the top 10 have shown mixed dynamics, ranging from a decline of 1.9% (Solana) to a rise of 1.5% (Terra). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined 0.7% overnight to $1.74 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance index added 0.2% to 42.1%. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point to 27 by Tuesday and remains in "fear" mode. Since late March, the bears have been intensifying from $39K, forming a sequence of lower highs. At the same time, the basis in the form of support at $38K generally remains untouched. The crypto market seems to have laid at the bottom, missing the momentum of the US indices growth at the close of trading, indicating a high supply of coins for sale and reluctance to take active actions in anticipation of the Fed's decision on Wednesday. But there may be another lower bottom if the FOMC reaction to the Fed leads to a stock market sell-off.    According to Santiment, large investors have been aggressively buying Ethereum and Binance Coin over the past two weeks, which could signify an impending trend reversal. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that cryptocurrencies offer advantages over fiat currencies in some respects, such as fast transaction times for payments. However, Dimon still recommends caution when investing in crypto-assets. According to Coin ATM Radar, the global bitcoin ATM installation rate declined for the fourth consecutive month in April. Meanwhile, Solana's blockchain went down for seven hours to carry out transactions due to a surge in operations that the network could not cope with. Billionaire Mark Cuban suggested using DOGE to fight spam on Twitter, which Elon Musk recently bought out.
Oil preparing for sharp moves

Oil preparing for sharp moves

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.05.2022 15:36
The price of crude is down more than 3% by the start of the New York trading session with a tug-of-war around $100 a barrel of WTI. And this is a rather remarkable market reaction, given reports that EU countries are dropping their veto on the Russian oil embargo one by one. The German finance minister has pointed to the technical possibility of an immediate embargo Germany, followed by Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, have withdrawn their vetoes to ban oil purchases from Russia. Moreover, the German finance minister has pointed to the technical possibility of an immediate embargo. A stronger dollar and signs of slowing activity in China and the US continue to weigh on global demand for risky assets and oil This news, in practice, has not triggered a new wave of oil purchases by speculators. A stronger dollar and signs of slowing activity in China and the US continue to weigh on global demand for risky assets and oil. Global investor wariness is preventing oil from making full use of market conditions, raising questions about the sustainability of the latest rally in December. The week ahead is full of critical macro events that could throw the markets off their fragile balance The signal for a break in the uptrend would be for oil to consolidate below the area of previous local lows at $95. However, one can draw a downtrend through the March and April peaks. Potentially, this situation leads to a strong move after exiting the two-month consolidation. The week ahead is full of critical macro events that could throw the markets off their fragile balance, from the OPEC+ meeting and EU sanctions to the announcement of FOMC decisions and the monthly US employment statistics.
Bitcoin undecided on a scenario for May

Bitcoin undecided on a scenario for May

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.05.2022 08:43
Bitcoin is down 3% over the past week, ending it at around $38.K. Ethereum lost 4.4%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 4% (Binance Coin) to 14.7% (XRP). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, fell 4.6% over the week to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose by one percentage point to 42.2% over the same period due to weakness in altcoins. For the week, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell by 2 points to 22 ("extreme fear"). The index rose to 28 points on Monday and moved into "fear" status. Bitcoin has declined over the past four weeks amid weakening US stock indices. On Friday, Amazon and Google shares suffered their most significant falls since 2008, dragging down the tech-rich Nasdaq Index. It lost 12.7% in April, its most considerable dip since 2008. Bitcoin fell 16.2% over April, offsetting the previous two-month rise and falling short of seasonal trends. This is the worst performance in a given month of the year in trading history since 2011. In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 11 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four times. The average rise was 27%, and the average decline was 16%. Under these scenarios, the estimated average range for BTC at the end of May is between $32K and $48K. A more local view of the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency indicates an ongoing struggle around the $38K mark. This struggle will decide which of the above levels the price will be closer to at the end of the month. The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) management believes it is inadvisable to invest in bitcoin and hold it as reserves for the regulator. The US Department of Labor has raised concerns about an initiative by US investment firm Fidelity to allow its customers to put a portion of retirement accounts in bitcoin.
Risk aversion boosts US dollar

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Misses! Ether Has Added Over 1%! Terra Has Lost -4.4%!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.04.2022 09:32
Bitcoin gained 2.1% on Thursday, ending the day around $39.9K, moderating Friday morning to $39.6K, cutting gains in the last 24 hours to 0.6%. Ethereum has added 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Prices of altcoins in the top 10 range from -4.4% (Terra) to +3.6% (Binance Coin). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.25% overnight to $1.81 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.1 points to 41.6%. However, the first cryptocurrency faces increased selloffs as it attempts to climb above 40k The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point to 23 by Friday, remaining in “extreme fear”. Bitcoin developed an upward correction on Thursday amid strengthening stock indices. However, the first cryptocurrency faces increased selloffs as it attempts to climb above 40k. The former uptrend support line is temporarily working as resistance. RSI index on the daily charts formed a double bottom in April against declining local price lows At the same time, the BTCUSD is in an oversold position. The RSI index on the daily charts formed a double bottom in April against declining local price lows, which feeds timid hopes of exhausting the downward momentum and the possibility of a more reliable reversal. Bitcoin now clearly needs global demand for risky assets and stock market support to push back the local negativity. At the same time, the adoption and proliferation of cryptocurrencies are running their course, building a foundation for long-term optimism about the industry. Meanwhile, the confidence level in digital assets in emerging economies is markedly higher than in developed economies According to a survey by cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp, 88% of institutional and 75% of retail investors believe that cryptocurrencies will become widespread before the end of the decade. Meanwhile, the confidence level in digital assets in emerging economies is markedly higher than in developed economies, where regulation is stricter. According to El Salvador’s National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), more than 20% of the country’s businesses accept bitcoin as a means of payment. A big luxury real estate developer in UAE, DAMAC Properties, has announced that it is ready to accept payments in BTC and ETH. US Congressman Patrick McHenry called for a separate regulator for the crypto industry and specific federal legislation. He criticised US regulators for their short-sightedness and lack of attention to the cryptocurrency industry. Another recalculation of the first cryptocurrency’s mining complexity showed that the figure rose by 5.56% to 27.79 trillion hashes, setting another record. The new record complexity will make bitcoin mining more labour-intensive and less profitable and often accompanies the rise in bitcoin prices.
Oil in choppy waters, gold slides | Oanda

Is Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Going To Skyrocket Shortly!? ETH Has Added 1.4%, XRP Declined By 0.6% And (SOL) Solana Gained 2%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.04.2022 08:40
Bitcoin found buyers' support Wednesday morning after touching levels below $38K, followed by a relatively calm rise to $39.4K as of Thursday morning with a strengthening of 2.4% in 24 hours. Ethereum added 1.4% over the same interval, with the other leading altcoins in the top 10 showing mixed dynamics, ranging from a 0.6% decline (XRP) to a 2% gain (Solana). The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was up 3 points to 24 by Thursday but remains in “extreme fear”. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.6% overnight to $1.8 trillion. Bitcoin again finds itself one step ahead of the cryptocurrency market, being not only its largest representative but also its locomotive. Bitcoin’s dominance index has added 0.3% to 41.5%. Read next: Meme coins: (SHIB) What Is Shiba Inu Token? Shiba Inu Coin Price. What Makes This Altcoin So Special? Clever Methods Used To Give High Crypto Returns | FXMAG.COM Short-term, Bitcoin has gained support on the decline to an important support area, withstanding an onslaught of sellers since late February. But at the same time, it remains below the support line of the last ten months, hinting at a pause in the decline but not a final victory for the buyers. For its part, bitcoin has been helped by the US stock market, where buyers have stepped up on the S&P500’s decline in the February and March lows. The stock market is now acting as a guide for the first cryptocurrency. However, it is hardly fair to say that the cryptocurrency market is entirely secondary. There are some reasonably internal solid drivers out there. For example, bitcoin supply in the market has been falling steadily, reaching late 2018 levels, Arcane Research notes. Active BTC hoarding is causing a shortage in the market and pushing exchange prices upwards. Virtually, bitcoin holders are getting richer from these community tactics. The crowd is buying back the decline to local lows and intends to hold bitcoin for some extended period. Fort Worth in Texas was the first US city to start mining bitcoin at the initiative of a millennial mayor. In doing so, the city promises not to sell the coins. US crypto investor Grayscale said it is considering entering the European market amid an expanding market for digital assets. The mayor of Buenos Aires has called for blockchain technology to make tax collection more efficient. US research firm NBER reported that 60% of Salvadorans stopped actively using the Chivo wallet after spending a welcome bonus in BTC. This result is called a failure of the bitcoin experiment. The developers of the Cardano blockchain have increased the block size by 10%, to 88Kb. This should improve the bandwidth and performance of decentralised applications on the network.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 22. COT reports. The pressure on the pound continues to build | InstaForex

USD/CHF - End Of Swiss Franc's (CHF) Prosperity!? Breakdown Of The Swiss Franc’s Half-Century Status

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.04.2022 16:09
The Swiss franc is on track for its most substantial monthly decline against the dollar in almost ten years. The USDCHF pair chart has shown neat support on declines from increasingly higher levels since the beginning of last year. And in April, we see the bulls attempting to develop the offensive.  The pair rushes upward without any prolonged stop near 0.9500 (February-March 2021 pivot point). This increase attracts particular attention because it comes at the same time as impressive pressure on the financial markets, which rejects the idea of a weaker franc on recovery of demand for risky assets. The USDCHF dynamics are now more like the behaviour of long-term government bond yields in the USA, where the downtrend of the last 40 years is breaking down. Interestingly, the long-term buying of the CHF in the previous 50 years has almost completely absorbed the loss in purchasing power of the USD.    For a half-century to 2021, CHF has shown an average annual gain of 3.1% versus USD against an average 3.9% inflation. Long-term bond yields, like the USDCHF, have fallen in response to globalisation and accompanying deflationary pressures. However, this trend, which is older than many of us, is about to be broken.    The 2.78% yield on 10-year US bonds is close to the turning points of 2.9% and 3.06% in 2014 and 2018. A consolidation above 3% would thus be a turning point in a trend which has lasted more than two generations. The same can broadly be said of the USDCHF. A move above 1.02 would confirm a break from the historical trend in the 1970s that tunnelled in the mid-1980s.
Equities retraced amid weak US consumer confidence and near completion of quarter-end rebalancing

Why current level is the most important for EURUSD

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.04.2022 12:33
The single currency has fallen under 1.0590, below pandemic lows and at its lowest level since April 2017. The 1.0600 area for EURUSD has repeatedly worked as a turning point since 2015. In 1997 and 1998 the selloffs also stopped at this level. And in late 1999, a move below 1.06 after a prolonged consolidation was the start of a 20% failure in the pair. Thus, the EURUSD has reached one of its most important historical milestones, even more important than the euro/dollar parity. And there are now increasing signs that the next steps for EURUSD will be more of a repeat of 1999 than 2017 or 2020. On the monthly charts, the EURUSD is consolidating below the ultra-long term uptrend line dating back to 1971, including passing near the lows of 2000-2002, 2016 and 2020. We could see a furious selloff in the single currency without a sharp rebound in the pair over the next couple of weeks. On the sellers’ side, there is a sharply slipping economic mood. A new survey by Germany’s GfK noted the worst consumer sentiment in history, even worse than at the lowest point of the pandemic. Consumers are reducing their income expectations and sharply increasing their propensity to save. This consumer sentiment works against economic recovery as it reduces consumer spending and hence corporate and government revenues. Potentially for the debt-burdened Eurozone, this is a bad sign because the currency’s weakness leads to higher bond yields and makes debt service even more expensive. This is especially true for Greece and Italy, and several other countries. Potentially, a fixation of EURUSD below 1.0600 could trigger a true Euro capitulation with potential targets at 0.9700 and a more distant target at 0.8500 in 2023.
End Of (DOGE) Dogecoin!? (BTC/USD) Price Of Bitcoin - A Big Loss! Ether (ETH) Has Decreased Over Last Day Hitting $2845!

End Of (DOGE) Dogecoin!? (BTC/USD) Price Of Bitcoin - A Big Loss! Ether (ETH) Has Decreased Over Last Day Hitting $2845!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.04.2022 08:42
Bitcoin has lost 5.3% in the past 24 hours, falling to $38.4K. Ethereum is down 5.4% to $2845 in the same time frame. In the top 10 altcoins, losses range from 3.6% (BNB) to 12.7% (Dogecoin). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 5.1% overnight to $1.77 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell to 41.2%. Around these levels in February and early March, buyers were already breaking the downtrend By Wednesday, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 6 points to 21 and moved back to “extreme fear”. Bitcoin collapsed with acceleration compared to the stock market on Tuesday, falling the most in 15 days. Near the $38K level, the first cryptocurrency fumbled for buyer demand. Around these levels in February and early March, buyers were already breaking the downtrend, but the upside momentum proved unsustainable. Bitcoin falling out of the window but latching onto the windowsill On the balance sheet, we have contradictory short-term signals. The BTCUSD has abruptly fallen below a critical support line, a bearish signal. At the same time, the uptrend breakdown failed to be confirmed by buying near previous local lows. We can describe it as Bitcoin falling out of the window but latching onto the windowsill. Equally contradictory was the news backdrop. According to CoinShares, institutional investors continue to withdraw capital from crypto funds from the downside. The net outflow of funds last week was $7.2 million, although it was down from the previous two weeks when investors withdrew more than $231 million. Regulatory pressure continues unabated ECB spokesman Fabio Panetta called the cryptocurrency industry the “Wild West” and called for stricter regulation. Meanwhile, bitcoin steps up further in recognition of a long-term investment vehicle. Fidelity Investments, one of the largest asset management firms, will make it possible to add bitcoin to its retirement portfolios. In addition, the sustainability of mining has improved. The Bitcoin Mining Council (BMC) stated that mining efficiency increased by 63% in the last quarter thanks to the widespread adoption of sustainable energy and modern techniques. As a result of the controversial picture, investors refrain from active action. According to Kaiko, trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since the summer of 2021. Glassnode believes that bitcoin’s fundamental metrics have improved in recent months.
Global equities staged a notable rally | Saxo Bank

(DOGE) Rocket! Why Is DOGE Going Up? Elon Musk Supports Crypto! Musk’s Indirect Pump Of Dogecoin; (BTC) Bitcoin’s Turnaround After Stocks

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.04.2022 08:36
Bitcoin has gained 4.1% in the past 24 hours, reaching $40.6K. Ethereum rose even more strongly, up 5.3% to $3000. Other altcoins from the top 10 rose from 2.5% (XRP) to 25% (Dogecoin). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased 3.9% overnight to $1.87 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added another 0.1 percentage point, to 41.3%. Bitcoin updated to mid-March lows around $38,200 in the first half of Monday The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 4 points to 27 by Tuesday and moved into "fear" status. Bitcoin updated to mid-March lows around $38,200 in the first half of Monday. BTC subsequently rebounded and strengthened gains in the US session along with the reversal of US stock indices. Read next: Gold Transformed! Gold Price (XAUUSD): From Haven To Anti-Dollar (USD) | FXMAG.COM Dogecoin soared 25% and returned to the top 10 cryptocurrencies on the back of news of Twitter's purchase of the social network by Elon Musk. DOGE is Musk's favourite coin for payments, and the Tesla founder has previously indicated that he intends to have it used as payment for purchases on Twitter. Billy Markus : new opportunities for holders of this cryptocurrency and strengthen DOGE's position in the ecosystem. The bitcoin buying strategy has proved highly successful, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said. As of April 14, MicroStrategy remains the largest publicly traded company in terms of bitcoin investments, with assets of 129,200 BTC purchased for $3.97 billion at an average price of $30,700, MicroStrategy noted in its 2021 annual financial report. Read next: A Rocketship! Greenback Has Become A TGV! US Dollar (USD) - How High DXY Can Jump? | FXMAG.COM Hedge fund SkyBridge Capital, founded by former US politician Anthony Scaramucci, plans to move most of its assets under management into cryptocurrency as it sees the prospect of "huge" growth in the sector. The Central African Republic has become the first country in Africa to recognise bitcoin as a legitimate means of payment. Sang Lee, co-founder of cryptocurrency financial services provider VegaX Holdings, said that institutions dealing with traditional finance and banks have already fallen far behind due to the rapid development of the crypto industry.
Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on June 7-8, 2022: buy above $1,842 (21 SMA - descending wedge)

Gold Transformed! Gold Price (XAUUSD): From Haven To Anti-Dollar (USD)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.04.2022 15:30
Gold lost 1.6% since the beginning of the day on Monday, testing $1900 precisely one week after an unsuccessful attempt to get above $2000. The essential factor that puts pressure on gold is the Fed's toughening rhetoric that triggers a broad sell-off of risky assets. Gold speculatively played its role as a haven for the war in Ukraine as it strengthened along with the US currency. Now gold is working as a commodity asset, turning into an anti-dollar with an inverse correlation to the US currency. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted | FXMAG.COM (...) it looks like the bulls capitulated locally The sharp declines on Friday and Monday seem to have broken the bullish momentum that was formed at the beginning of February. Last week's closing under the 50 SMA and the support areas of March and the first half of April did not attract new buyers. On the contrary, it looks like the bulls capitulated locally. Read next: Dollar changes pressure angle| FXMAG.COM (...) the gold might zero out the rally since the beginning of the year and go back to $1830 or get lower to $1780-1800 (...) In just a matter of ten days before the Fed meeting, the gold might zero out the rally since the beginning of the year and go back to $1830 or get lower to $1780-1800 before we might see a new buying impulse.
Global equities staged a notable rally | Saxo Bank

A Rocketship! Greenback Has Become A TGV! US Dollar (USD) - How High DXY Can Jump?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.04.2022 14:05
The dollar continues to push back against competitors in global markets, going on the offensive against a broader front of currencies and stock indices. Geopolitics is ceding to monetary policy its role as the primary driver. And that could be bad news for risk-sensitive assets, as there is still no light at the end of this tunnel. The dollar's main competitors, the euro and the yen, seem to have exhausted their downside potential, and now the volatility threatens the next, broader range of currencies. Read next (by FXPro): (BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted | FXMAG.COM The yen has stabilised at 20-year lows at 128 after a 12% slump since the start of March and a 25% drawdown since the 2021 start. EURUSD was one step away from 1.0700 at the start of the European session, having lost 4.4% since March and 13% from its peak in January 2021. The movement is not too sweeping but steadily lowers the euro traded back in 2003. Read next (by FXPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM However, we are now seeing a marked reduction in the yen and the euro amplitude, while in contrast, it is rising in other market sectors. The British pound is flying into the abyss for a second day, losing 0.77% on Monday after falling 1.6% on Friday. GBPUSD has capitulated, pulling back to 1.2740, where it last was in September 2020. GBPUSD has moved into the lower half of the trading range this week from after the pandemic hit. The tactical target for the bears, in this case, could be the 1.2600 area, with the final point being 1.2000, where the GBPUSD has repeatedly found support over the past six years. The Australian dollar has lost about 4% since Thursday. The decline for the fourth consecutive week took about 6% off its peak at the start of April, maybe just half of the potential decline towards 0.6700, a critical turning point in the last 24 years.
BTC update for June 27,.2022 - Potential for the drop due to broken rising wedge

(BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.04.2022 08:43
Bitcoin declined by 2.3% over the past week, ending it at around $39.5K. Ethereum lost 3.9%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 2.2% (Solana) to 10.5% (XRP). The exception was Terra (+12.9%). On Monday, the pressure on cryptocurrencies continued, taking another 1.3% off bitcoin to 38.9k, sending it to test March lows. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.2% to 41.2% over the same period. Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, changed little over the week, remaining at 1.8 trillion, as a wave of buying in the first half of the week turned into a strong sell-off in the second. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.2% to 41.2% over the same period. Read next (by FXPro): What Moves Forex Rates? Strong US Dollar Affects British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And CNH | FXMAG.COM Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose from 24 to 27 and returned to its starting point during the week. By Monday, the index had lost another point to 23, remaining in the extreme fear territory. Bitcoin has declined for the third consecutive week, along with stock indices. BTC tried to rise, renewing its highs in a week and a half, around $43,000. Thursday and Friday saw a sharp pullback along with the stock market, and bitcoin fell below the circular $40,000 level. Changpeng Zhao, the Binance's chief executive, said the adoption of cryptocurrencies would rise as geopolitical tensions escalate and the use of the dollar as a sanctions tool grows. He believes the US will lose out to the rest of the world if it continues to suppress bitcoin. Read next (by FXPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM A group of US congressmen have spoken out against mining cryptocurrencies using the environmentally damaging Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus algorithm. They said that cryptocurrencies of particular concern are BTC, ETH, XMR and ZEC. The EU has discussed banning BTC trading because of its energy and environmental impact. Bitcoin's energy consumption continues to increase and is attracting the attention of environmental organisations and regulators.
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

What Moves Forex Rates? Strong US Dollar Affects British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And CNH

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 13:32
The world's major currencies continue to surrender to the dollar one after another. Since the start of March, the yen has lost 11.5% and fallen to a 20-year low. But just as we saw the third world economy currency stabilise, the currency of the second one went on the move. Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but The dollar has added over 2% to the renminbi since the start of the week, the most significant move since 2015. It is also noteworthy that the Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but in an abrupt move, entered the area of the extremes of the last 12 months. Read next (FxPro): Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar? | FXMAG.COM We see an equally impressive attack on the Pound. The GBPUSD broke the support at 1.3000 on Friday, and it is already losing more than 1% so far today. USDCHF reached its highest point since June 2020, exceeding 0.9550. Read next (FxPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM The New Zealand and Australian dollars have been declining steadily since early April, despite hawkish action and comments from respective central banks. Moreover, the export-oriented economies of these countries should benefit from the emerging commodity prices. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range The USDCAD went back to month highs in less than two days, reversing Wednesday's sharp rally and earlier gains from hawkish comments by the Bank of Canada. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range. However, the swing in GBPUSD today and USDCNH throughout the week and the USDJPY drama since early March suggests that EURUSD could be the next victim of dollar bulls.
Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low!

Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 09:34
GBPUSD fell below 1.3000 to its lowest level in 17 months due to a weak retail sales report. Sales excluding fuel fell 1.1% after 0.9% in February ONS reports a 1.4% drop in total sales for March after a 0.5% decline a month earlier. Sales excluding fuel fell 1.1% after 0.9% in February and showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% - a clear signal of the severity of the current economic situation. Read next: ECB Announcements to Possibly Tighten Monetary Policy Strengthens the Euro. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF All Increased | FXMAG.COM Consumer demand is migrating from retail to services Rising prices and wages have little impact on retail activity so far, which may prove to be a complication for the Bank of England in further tightening monetary policy. Sales returned to their long-term trend level in March after a significant pullback in the second half of 2020. Consumer demand is migrating from retail to services. Related article: Altcoins: IOTA, Litecoin (LTC) and Cardano (ADA) Threatened? Crypto Markets Lie in The Hands of Regulations and Government Policies? | FXMAG.COM According to the Fibonacci model, the next major stop could be near the 1.26 area Weak sales data interrupted the Pound's consolidation above the 1.3000 area, hoping that the UK economy could digest decisive rate tightening. GBPUSD is renewing multi-month lows, building on the momentum formed a month ago when a rebound in the pair was interrupted. According to the Fibonacci model, the next major stop could be near the 1.26 area, where the 161.8% mark from the initial decline from February to March passes. Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply | FXMAG.COM  
Polkadot (DOT) Has Lost 4.7%! Interactions Between Cryptomarket, Fed And Powell! Bitcoin (BTC) -2.3%, Ether (ETH) -2.4%, Terra (LunA) -0.4%

Polkadot (DOT) Has Lost 4.7%! Interactions Between Cryptomarket, Fed And Powell! Bitcoin (BTC) -2.3%, Ether (ETH) -2.4%, Terra (LunA) -0.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 08:26
Powell's speech on Thursday night weighed on US markets and echoed on cryptocurrencies, leaving an emerging breakaway from a critical support line. Cryptos go down A decline in US stock indices added to the negative impact amid a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said he could aggressively tighten monetary policy at the May meeting. Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply | FXMAG.COM Bitcoin has lost 2.3% to $40,700 in the past 24 hours. Ethereum is down 2.4%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are down 0.4% (Terra) to 4.7% (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 2.2% overnight to $1.88 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance index fell to 41.0% due to the first cryptocurrency's tight link to pressured stock markets. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 1 point to 26 on Friday, after three days at 27 points (fear). Read next: Unexpectedly Gold Price (XAUUSD) Falls, Canada And Chicago - Weather Makes Wheat Futures Fluctuate. The Price Of Palladium - Industrial Activity Is Taking Strain | FXMAG.COM Investors’ record profit Earlier on Thursday, Bitcoin tested the highs of the past 11 days, around $43,000. During the day, BTCUSD crossed the 50-day average, which is often an indicator of a medium-term trend, but failed to close above it. Due to pressure on the stock market, the first cryptocurrency fractured into a bullish scenario with a breakaway from the support line and a trend reversal. However, it is too early to completely write off the strength of the bulls, while the first bitcoin manages to hold above support. Read next: ECB Announcements to Possibly Tighten Monetary Policy Strengthens the Euro. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF All Increased | FXMAG.COM FxPro Analyst team emphasised that US crypto investors made a record profit of $46.9bn in 2021, followed by the UK with $8.1bn and Germany with $5.8bn. In Russia, investors earned $4.3bn. According to the Bank of Canada, most Canadians investing in bitcoin lack financial literacy. Meanwhile, more knowledgeable investors have little or no exposure to BTC.
Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar?

Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.04.2022 11:10
Oil gained 1.5% on Thursday morning to $103.75 per barrel for WTI and $108.2 for Brent, continuing to cling to the uptrend since December. Over the past six weeks, oil price movements are no longer unidirectional, but the market remains in 'crisis mode'. In April, oil is supported on the declines towards the 50-day moving average, as we saw yesterday. The uptrend is not only supported by the abrupt withdrawal of oil from Russia and the accompanying decline in production there. There are also shipment problems in Libya and prolonged pipeline repairs in Kazakhstan. Oil producers in the US seem to be stepping up. Last week saw production increase to 11.9M barrels per day - a new high since May 2020 - from 11.8M. Fluctuations could prove to be a manifestation of the supply shifting to Europe Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Meanwhile, US oil stocks and production data remain volatile. Commercial inventories collapsed by 8M barrels after jumping by 9.4M last week. Such fluctuations could prove to be a manifestation of the supply shifting to Europe. Strategic stocks showed a net decline of 4.7M after 3.9m the previous week. The volume of oil in strategic storage fell to the lows in the last 20 years. However, it is not yet enough to turn around commercial inventories. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Another potential area of pressure on the oil price - a strengthening dollar Oil supply constraints continue to put together a relatively bullish picture for oil, preventing a price reversal to the downside. A real bearish victory requires either a sharp increase in production in the US or OPEC countries or a dramatic fall in demand. We see no clear signals for either direction. Another potential area of pressure on the oil price - a strengthening dollar - is also failing for the second day in a row, temporarily working on the bulls' side.
Bitcoin – Massive Support

(DOT/USD) Polkadot Steals The Show! Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Struggles To Break Away From Support, (ETH/USD) Pauses?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.04.2022 08:25
Bitcoin added 0.3% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41,400, and is adding another 0.6% since Thursday morning to $41,630. Ethereum has gained 0.2% in the past 24 hours, while other top 10 altcoins have shown mixed dynamics, ranging from a 1.7% decline (XRP) to a 3.6% gain (Polkadot). The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index is now in its third day, staying at 27 points (fear) Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.4% overnight to $1.92 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance index added 0.1 point to 41.1%. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index is now in its third day, staying at 27 points (fear), but we see a slight upward movement in the market. The strong correlation between the tech sector and bitcoin is holding the latter back In the crypto market, as in the high-tech Nasdaq, we can call it cautious demand from buyers of the deep, but this support is not turning into a rally. The strong correlation between the tech sector and bitcoin is holding the latter back That said, the very fact that bitcoin has managed to lock in an uptrend and attempts to push back from that support is setting up positives for the coming days. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin's uptrend of the last four months can be extended to the left, and then it appears to be close to the July 2021 low, which was then near 30k. If we are right, bitcoin, and subsequently the entire crypto market, are saved from falling into a crypto winter by long-term buyers who find the current levels quite attractive Glassnode does not rule out that bitcoin has already formed its "bottom". Although it cannot yet break out of its range formed since February. The process of redistributing coins from speculative investors to hodlers is likely already complete, which will reduce selling pressure going forward. According to BitInfoCharts, the world's third-largest bitcoin whale has acquired 2,822 BTC worth $117 million in the past seven days. In 2022, 3.6 million Americans will use the cryptocurrency to make purchases, a report by research firm Insider Intelligence predicts. The number of cryptocurrency users in the US is expected to rise to 33.7 million by the end of this year.
Crude Oil Marches Higher, Price Of Gold Yawns

$2000 Level Of Gold Price (XAUUSD) Noted But Not Yet Present! Awaiting Fed Vs. Gold Battle!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.04.2022 10:27
Gold is falling fast, having lost about 3% to $1940 from Monday's peak. On Monday, the bulls are locally capitulating after an unsuccessful attempt to push the price above $2000. It would be a mistake to attribute gold's fall to an expensive dollar. Since the start of the year, the dollar index and gold have had a more than 80% correlation versus -0.34% in 2021, reflecting that investors see gold and the dollar as defensive assets amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Yesterday the dollar index slowed its rise towards the end of the day. It reversed to a decline on Wednesday morning, while gold has been actively declining since the beginning of the week, reinforcing their close correlation. Read next: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM With EURUSD near 1.08, GBPUSD near 1.30 and USDJPY one step away from 130, the dollar is near historical extremes Gold's recent retreat could be a sign of hope for a détente in the European conflict and a desire to lock in profits from the powerful movement of recent days. As it is difficult to find signs of de-escalation in the news, we are leaning towards the second option. With EURUSD near 1.08, GBPUSD near 1.30 and USDJPY one step away from 130, the dollar is near historical extremes. The same can be seen in the Dollar Index, which since last week has been trading above 100, a psychologically crucial round level. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of February, gold has found support on the declines toward its 50-day moving average in the last rally. If a test of this level in the coming days also confirms the resilience of this support, we could see a new high soon. On the long-term gold chart, the pullback from the highs in 2020 and the subsequent smooth recovery is a handle in a "cup-and-handle" pattern, whereby a cup has formed over eight years since 2012. This pattern will gain strength should gold consolidate above $2000 with a final target near $3000.
Bitcoin – Massive Support

Swapping Visa And Mastercard For Solana (SOL)!? Crypto Revolution? Bitcoin (BTC) Has Jumped Again, Ether (ETH) Heading To $5000! Ripple (XRP) Almost 1% Down

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.04.2022 08:31
Bitcoin rose 1.4% on Tuesday, ending the day around $41,300 and remaining near that mark on Wednesday morning. Ethereum added 1.3% to $3080 in the last 24 hours, XRP corrected 0.9% to 0.766, and other top ten altcoins gained 0.7% (BNB) to 4.9% (Terra). Bitcoin on Tuesday tested 8-day highs above $41,700 on the back of rising US stock indices, which strengthened for a second straight day Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.3% overnight to $1.92 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance index was little changed, remaining at 41.0%. By Wednesday, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remained at 27 points (fear). Bitcoin on Tuesday tested 8-day highs above $41,700 on the back of rising US stock indices, which strengthened for a second straight day. Article on Crypto: Altcoins Showing Promising Growth - Take a Look at Solana (SOL), POLKADOT (DOT) and SHIBA INU (SHIB-USD)| FXMAG.COM Correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq Composite Index has been highest since July 2020 Terra (LUNA) gained 5.5 per cent as Terra USD (UST) moved up to third place in terms of capitalisation among stablecoins. Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital and Virgin Galactic, said Solana (SOL) could capture market share in traditional financial services by challenging Visa and Mastercard. SOL is up 4.6%. The creators of the largest anonymous cryptocurrency, Monero, have confirmed that a 15th network hardfork is set for July 16. "It is better not to spend BTC but invest in it long-term" Jack Mallers, CEO of payment service Strike, said that bitcoin as a payment method is superior to all other systems. Nevertheless, it is better not to spend BTC but invest in it long-term. The US Secret Service's Office of Investigations (USSS) has disclosed that since 2015 the service has seized more than $102 million in digital assets from criminals. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) believes that nearly half of the world's countries are not complying with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML) regulations. FATF has pledged to monitor member countries, including the US, China and the European Union.
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Mayday! (JPY) Japanese Yen Is Surging! Can Bank Of Japan Help USD/JPY? Interaction With Fed Coming?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.04.2022 15:05
The pressure on the Japanese yen persists in the markets. The USDJPY has been hitting 20-year highs almost daily since last week, rising 11.8% to 128.40 since early March. Since the beginning of the year, the yield spread between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds has doubled to 2.7%, on the back of rising US performance, which has sharply increased the attractiveness of US long-term bonds. The currency in such an environment works as a shock absorber, returning competitiveness to the economy. USD To JPY (USD/JPY) Chart  A hand-tied Bank of Japan is unlikely to be able to offer anything serious to reverse the yen However, in the USDJPY equilibrium exchange rate equation, you also have to add the changed reality with the surge in prices of commodities and energy imports in Japan. Capital is leaving the country, taking refuge in the USA or commodity-exporting countries that can now enforce the tighter monetary policy. A hand-tied Bank of Japan is unlikely to be able to offer anything serious to reverse the yen. It’s also not in the interests of the country’s finance ministry, which could use a weaker yen to deflate its enormous government debt. This opens the yen up for further declines, potentially into the region of 140 per dollar, where the exchange rate was last seen during the Asian debt crisis, and even earlier, in the early 1990s, when the world last experienced a similarly high rate of consumer inflation.
Greenback Skyrockets! Record-Breaking US Dollar (USD)!? Is It Possible For Dollar Index (DXY) To Reach 112 As In Early 2000s? Fed Decision Incoming!

Greenback Skyrockets! Record-Breaking US Dollar (USD)!? Is It Possible For Dollar Index (DXY) To Reach 112 As In Early 2000s? Fed Decision Incoming!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.04.2022 10:34
The dollar index passed 101, which we last saw for just over a week at the height of the lockdowns. But history suggests that this rally has roughly passed the halfway point. DXY is unlikely to stop near 103-104 as it has done in the last six years Except for a brief period of stock market panic in March 2020, the last time the dollar was at this level against a basket of the six most popular currencies was in April 2017. The Dollar Index peaked in the 103-104 area in both cases and has not traded consistently higher for the past 20 years. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun The past two times, the dollar’s rise has been halted by the Fed, easing its policy or tone of commentary, as we have seen stock and commodity markets crash along with the USD rally. That is not the case this time, so the DXY is unlikely to stop near 103-104 as it has done in the last six years. For USDJPY, it could spike to 140, which has not been seen since 1998 We are now seeing a rise in the dollar, mainly on the Fed’s switch to monetary tightening mode. We saw that the last three such impulses of dollar growth, which started in 2014, 1998, and 1992 caused the DXY to appreciate by about 25%. For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy? Applying this pattern to the current case, we get that the dollar has exhausted just over half of its upside potential and could strengthen as much as 110-112 on the DXY in the next few months. For EURUSD, this scenario sets up a plunge towards parity, the lows of the last 20 years. For USDJPY, it could spike to 140, which has not been seen since 1998. And for GBPUSD, a return to 1.2000, the lows of the Brexit-fear era.
(BTC) Bitcoin - "Entertainment For Losers"? Crypto Prices: (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Has Soared And Hit Ca. $41K! Terra (LUNA) Gone Up By 18%, Dogecoin (DOGE) Increased By 3.5%, Ethereum (ETH) Jumped

(BTC) Bitcoin - "Entertainment For Losers"? Crypto Prices: (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Has Soared And Hit Ca. $41K! Terra (LUNA) Gone Up By 18%, Dogecoin (DOGE) Increased By 3.5%, Ethereum (ETH) Jumped

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.04.2022 08:42
Bitcoin returned to growth territory with a powerful surge at Monday's close, above the all-important $40K key level. A desperate attempt to hold on to the uptrend line from January resulted in a temporary success. Bitcoin's dominance index added 0.3 p.p. to 41.0% Over the past 24 hours, we have seen a 5% jump to $40.8K. Ethereum adds 4.5% in 24 hours, trading above $3040. Other leading altcoins from the top ten are adding between 3.5% (Dogecoin) and 18% (Terra). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 4.6% overnight to $1.89 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance index added 0.3 p.p. to 41.0%.The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index declined Tuesday, adding 3 points to 27 and moving into "fear" territory.   Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun   Yesterday, the formal trigger for bitcoin buying was reverting US stock indices in the New York trading session to the upside. However, what is striking is that cryptocurrencies were many times more optimistic about this change in trend, suggesting demand has been waiting to surge into the market. Also noteworthy is the increased amplitude of growth in the hottest cryptocurrencies (Solana, Terra, Avalanche), gaining more than bitcoin. The buying wave has not yet spread to the entire market, evidenced by bitcoin's rising share.   For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy?   Cryptocurrencies are a system of communicating vessels on several levels. Bitcoin fills the demand first, followed by the first round of popular coins, followed by a wave of buying of smaller projects. The further away from the centre, the lower the liquidity, but the higher the sensitivity to sentiment. NTFs in this scheme are illiquid, where demand has not yet reached. "Entertainment for losers" The NFT market is about to burst because of rising interest rates, believes Nassim Taleb, American economist and author of Black Swan. Previously, he has been critical of bitcoin, calling it "entertainment for losers".According to Blockchain.com, fees on the bitcoin network have fallen to their lowest since June 2020. The average transaction processing fee now costs a user just over $1.The number of Lightning Network users has grown 800 times in a year, to 80 million, Arcane Research estimated. Lightning is designed to solve the problem of reducing high transaction fees. 
Skyrocketing Natural Gas Price (NATGAS)! Will (USOIL) Crude Oil Price Do The Same!? What An Increase!

Skyrocketing Natural Gas Price (NATGAS)! Will (USOIL) Crude Oil Price Do The Same!? What An Increase!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.04.2022 15:37
Gas prices on the NYMEX are adding for the 11th trading session of the last 12, renewing their highs since October 2008. US gas exchange prices have risen by a third since the beginning of the month and more than doubled since the beginning of the year in response to a surge in demand in Europe and rising oil prices. Companies in Europe and Asia are set to cut their purchases of Russian energy as fast as possible, pushing prices up. While the fundamentals are tilting toward later growth, technical analysis increasingly points to overbought conditions, so the likelihood of an imminent correction. In the monthly candlestick chart, the RSI is entering overbought territory (>70), which it has done only six times in the past 20 years. In all cases, prices declined sharply in the following month, or we even saw a fundamental long-term reversal. Thus, it is likely that we could see a bear attack by the end of this month. On the daily charts, the RSI has risen to 88. The last time it was higher was in 2018 briefly, which was also near price peaks. The price frenzy was also fuelled by news of falling oil and gas stocks. However, seasonality is strong in gas, and inventories reach their lowest just in the first days of April. We saw a rise last week, marking the first signs of a trend reversal. However, in the longer term, the current gas price situation lays the foundations for a new gas renaissance in the USA, and it should lead to a recovery in production rather than a price hike.
Robust renminbi despite falling stocks & rising dollar

Robust renminbi despite falling stocks & rising dollar

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.04.2022 15:08
The Easter holiday in Europe and a lack of scheduled publications in the US ensure a quiet trading session this Monday. Only a batch of data from China provides some volatility. Retail activity is declining – a worrying signal of the impact of lockdowns. Chinese stocks were under moderate pressure on Monday, and the Chinese renminbi has changed little since the start of the day. Investors are concerned that the People's Bank of China did not ease its monetary policy on Friday or Monday, as many expected. In addition, retail activity is declining – a worrying signal of the impact of lockdowns. 3.5% y/y drop in retail sales in response to last month's tight lockdowns caught our attention more According to the released statistics package, the economy added 1.3% in the first quarter and is 4.8% higher than a year ago. This data is noticeably better than forecasts which expected 0.6% and 4.2%, respectively. Industrial production added 5% in March compared to the same month a year earlier, better than the 4.0% expected. However, the 3.5% y/y drop in retail sales in response to last month's tight lockdowns caught our attention more. To a large extent, they persisted or even intensified in some regions in the first half of April. Key equity indices - China A50, Hang Seng, China H-shar At the same time, the resilience of the Chinese renminbi cannot be overlooked. In no small measure, its ability to withstand a strengthening dollar is due to its tighter monetary policy. China seems to be paying more attention to the dynamics of the currency and economic indicators, disregarding the stock market's weakness. Key equity indices - China A50, Hang Seng, China H-shar – are now below pre-pandemic levels, in stark contrast to the 8.5% rise in the Chinese yuan against the dollar near the bottom of the last six and a half years. The ability of the renminbi to withstand a rising dollar environment is a demonstration of the strength of the Chinese currency. Should the dollar trend reverse and retreat from its highs, we could see a serious yuan rally from the current 6.38 with a potential renewal of the 2018 USDCNH lows at 6.25 or even 2015 when the pair traded below 6.20.
Bitcoin’s breaking support

Bitcoin’s breaking support

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.04.2022 08:43
Bitcoin declined by 5.7%, ending the week at around $40,300. Ethereum lost 6.6%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 2.9% (Binance Coin) to 17% (Terra). The exception was XRP (+0.8%). Monday began with a further 3.3% drawdown in bitcoin to $38.9K, which had fallen below its support line since January. The signal for a break of the mild upward trend would be a consolidation below the $38K levels. If the bulls capitulate, the first cryptocurrency could be pushed into the $32-35K range without much resistance. A consolidation scenario below $30K would require an absolute disaster in the financial markets. We have seen steady and impressive demand from long-term buyers as we have fallen into this area. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the week to $1.81 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell by 0.5% to 40.75% over the same period. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index lost 4 points to 24 by Monday, returning to “extreme fear” territory after two days of consolidation in “fear”. Bitcoin declined for the second week in a row under negative stock market performance. Last week’s noticeable decline in BTC on Monday Executives of the world’s largest crypto exchanges told CNBC that they have recently noticed signs of a “crypto thaw” regarding governments’ changing attitude towards cryptocurrencies. Portugal’s central bank has granted the country’s first crypto-asset license to a bank. Bison Bank became the first bank in Portugal to offer large customers cryptocurrency storage and trading services. Cardano founder Hoskinson suggested that Musk join forces to create a decentralised social network if Twitter does not come under the Tesla founder’s control. Vlad Tenev, Robinhood’s CEO, said DOGE would become the most used cryptocurrency for Internet payments. However, to do so, developers must improve transaction processing speed.
Back to black: the countries best positioned to replace Russian gas with coal

Price Of Crude Oil (WTI) And Natural Gas (NGAS) Boosting US Dollar (USD) Which Jumps High

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.04.2022 09:57
Energy prices continue to fly into the stratosphere, adding 30% since the start of April, strengthening at twice the rate of March. The last time US gas was this expensive was in October 2008. Energy, oil, and gas have a very high price elasticity Demand for American gas has surged as Europe tries to cut back on purchases from Russia as much as possible. But this also puts the current commodity sharply in short supply. Energy, oil, and gas have a very high price elasticity, meaning that a supply or demand shift of just a couple of per cent leads to a much higher price change. Thus, the US provokes soaring prices on domestic markets by providing Europe with gas. Oil also receives a strong upward marches, not only as of the closest substitute but also as another Russian export that the world is in a hurry to abandon. Oil prices managed to stay in an uptrend WTI was back above $105, and Brent closed Thursday above $110, returning to levels of two weeks ago. Oil prices managed to stay in an uptrend, albeit this time as a slider amid accelerating gas prices. The performance of oil and gas prices is supported by US export figures, which is favourable for the Dollar. Notably, in contrast to the historical correlation, energy is rising with the Dollar, although more often than not, a rising dollar pressures energy. As one of the leading energy exporters, having strengthened its position, the states will economically have the most negligible impact on the economy compared with most developed countries that are net importers of oil and gas. Fed can raise interest rates more quickly Higher energy costs may not prevent the Dollar from moving somewhat up further but may strengthen it by giving the Fed carte blanche to tighten policy more forcefully. The Fed can raise interest rates more quickly, but it can also push them to higher levels without the risk of seriously hurting the economy.
Bitcoin – Massive Support

Paying In Crypto On (AMZN) Amazon!? CEO Speaks His Mind! Bitcoin (BTC) And Ether (ETH) Have Gone Down Over Last 24 Hours!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.04.2022 08:33
Bitcoin was down 3.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.9K, although it managed to bounce back above $40.1K by Friday morning, cutting the intraday decline to 2.8%. Ethereum has lost 2.5% in the last 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten are predominantly declining, from -1% (BNB) to -7.3% (Terra). The exception was XRP, which added 5.4% during this time. BTC can develop a reversalAccording to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 2.8% per day, to $1.87 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.3% to 40.7%. By Friday, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index returned to the extreme fear territory, losing 6 points to 22. US stocks failed to build on the offensive, losing all of the previous day's gains, leading to a stronger selloff for bitcoin compared to alternative cryptocurrencies. From the technical side, Bitcoin is trading near the support level, which runs through the lows of January, February and March. A formal signal to break the support will be considered a failure under the previous lows in the $38K area. The ability to develop a reversal to the offensive from these levels, on the contrary, will reinforce the importance of this moderate uptrend line. Crypto newsThe head of Ripple noted that the court with the SEC is going “much better than expected,” which provoked a wave of XRP growth, allowing the coin to resist gravity. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that the largest asset management company continues to study the cryptocurrency sector. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that the company has no plans to introduce payments in cryptocurrency in the near future, although it is exploring the possibilities of digital assets. At the same time, he looks to the future of cryptocurrencies and NFTs with interest and optimism. The Bank of Canada is exploring scenarios for the coexistence of digital and fiat currencies, the first regulator to decide to use quantum computing for this study. Bank of Japan chief executive Shinichi Uchida said the upcoming digital yen will not be used to achieve a negative interest rate. The second stage of the launch of the digital yen started on March 24th this year.
(USD) Dollar Is Losing 1%! Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) To Reach $2500 This Year?

(USD) Dollar Is Losing 1%! Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) To Reach $2500 This Year?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.04.2022 11:07
The Dollar is correcting on Thursday morning, losing around 1% from Wednesday's peak, when the dollar index rose to its highest since May 2020. It has caught our attention that Gold and the Dollar have been moving in tandem since the start of the year, a historically rare and short-lived combination that has only intensified recently. Gold and the Dollar have risen back-to-back over the past week, having retreated somewhat from local highs yesterday. The correlation between the Dollar and Gold is easily explained by the flight of investors away from the conflict. The pull into Gold is more like a knee-jerk reflex. Much of it is speculation that investors will buy Gold as protection against inflation, financial system weakness or geopolitical instability. However, it is worth realising that the alternative to traditional finance now is not Gold, but cryptocurrencies, which have no storage costs and are better shareable and transferable. Related article: ECB Interest Rate Decision Is Coming! European Indices (DAX, CAC40) To Plunge Or Rise? What About Forex Pairs? In modern finance, Gold often gets a role of a commodity asset. In other words, we could see this correlation break down as early as the next few days. And from the fundamental point of view, the chances are higher that the dollar offensive might be renewed in the coming days. On Wednesday and Thursday, we see typical profit-taking before the long weekend after the rally. Behind the Dollar are expectations of extremely hawkish moves by the Fed, as FOMC members are fuelling the idea of a one time 50-point rate hike in early May and are not ruling out one or two more such moves at subsequent meetings. So far, the economy has allowed and is even begging for the screws to tighten. At the same time, we should not forget that markets, especially the currency markets, are a waiting game. The Dollar climbed so high on a wave of extreme expectations. Analysis: Wheat Futures Prices Influenced, By Weather, Naturally! Their easing has the potential to trigger a reversal. The dollar index hit bottom at the end of May last year. And we wouldn't be surprised if, at the end of the May 4th meeting or after the next employment release on May 6th, the Dollar hits the ceiling, as investors will gradually lock in profits and roll back expectations. The Dollar's reversal may push Gold prices to new historic highs above $2100 by the end of this quarter and exceed $2500 before this year ends.
(BTC) Bitcoin Price Prediction 2022: $100K!? Stocks Swapped For Crypto!?

(BTC) Bitcoin Price Prediction 2022: $100K!? Stocks Swapped For Crypto!?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.04.2022 09:03
Bitcoin rose 4.3% on Wednesday to end the day around $41,300, Ethereum added 4% to reach 3100, and both remain near those levels early Thursday. The leading altcoins from the top ten have risen in price over the past day from 0.7% (Binance Coin) to 5.4% (Avalanche). Demand on BTC According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market has grown over the past 24 hours by 2.3% per day, to $1.92 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.3% to 41.0%. Cryptocurrency index of fear and greed added to Thursday added 3 more points to 28 and moved into a state of "fear". Bitcoin was in demand in the US session amid a rebound in stock indices and a decline in the US dollar. The US currency began to correct downwards after a 9-day growth, which contributed to the revival of all risky assets. World's first crypto credit card Alex Mashinsky, CEO of the Celsius Network crypto-lending platform, said that Bitcoin will soar above $100,000 as early as 2022 as a result of capital flight from the stock market to cryptocurrencies. According to him, bitcoin began to behave as a protective asset against the backdrop of a deterioration in the general situation in the world. Crypto lending platform Nexo has announced the release of the world's first credit card secured in cryptocurrency based on the Mastercard payment system. The card will allow you to spend funds without having to sell crypto assets. They will be used as collateral to secure the loan. According to IntoTheBlock, the number of long-term investors in the Shiba Inu token has grown 20 times since the beginning of the year. However, hodlers hold only 5% of the total capitalization of the meme token.
Inflation Hit Hard In Poland Reaching Ca. 14%! Zloty (PLN) Going To Be Supported By NBP In The Following Months | ING Economics

Crude Oil Price Chart - How Will The Price Of Crude Oil Change Amid The Reduce Of Production?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.04.2022 12:18
The price of oil rose more than 6% on Tuesday, with the main driver being news that Russia is sharply cutting its oil production. Reuters sources report a fall in production in the first days of April to 10.32m BPD, down from an average of 11M in March and 11.06M in February. But the same sources report that only 9.76M was produced on Monday, noting an increasingly rapid drop in production. By comparison, the low point of Russian oil production at the deep of the coronavirus restrictions was 9.37M barrels. Russia probably has not yet solved the problem of drastically changed logistics due to sanctions A 12% drop in production or 1.7M BPD in just a month and a half calls this quarter's global oil stockpile growth projections into question. Another source, the International Energy Agency, expects Russian production to fall by 1.5M BPD in April and 3m BPD in May. A gradual production ramp-up cannot offset such a dip. Neither will it help to reduce forecasted demand growth rates. Russia probably has not yet solved the problem of drastically changed logistics due to sanctions. But investors should also bear in mind how devastating the sanctions have been on the energy sectors of Iran and Venezuela, where production decreased 2-4 times from the pre-sanctions peak. The falling volumes of these countries have been replaced by Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia, but there is little indication that the latter two have the strength to pick up the former's export share. A sharp fall in Russian production has brought worries about energy shortages back to the market Oil prices have been bouncing back since March 24th on reports of increased sales from strategic reserves by the US and its allies. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has increasingly failed to keep up with its quotas, not just because of Russia but because of all other members. A sharp fall in Russian production has brought worries about energy shortages back to the market. These reports have helped oil stay within the uptrend formed in early December. It will not be surprising if the oil price manages to bounce back from this five-month support in the coming days, again going on to storm levels above $110. Until recently, the USA has been unable to take advantage of the situation and has been increasing its production much more slowly than it has since the global financial crisis. Perhaps we will see a change in this situation in the weekly US oil production and reserves data published later today.
(GBP) British Pound Weakened. It's Good To Keep An Eye On GBP/USD. What Will Be Next Moves Of Fed And Boe?

(GBP) British Pound Weakened. It's Good To Keep An Eye On GBP/USD. What Will Be Next Moves Of Fed And Boe?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.04.2022 09:28
Inflation in the UK is developing an acceleration stronger than expected. Estimates for March marked a 1.1% CPI gain for the month, above the 0.8% a month earlier and rebutting analysts' hopes that the monthly price growth would slow to 0.7%. The year-over-year inflation rate has accelerated from 6.2% to 7.0%. Output producer prices rose by 2% in March As in most of Europe, leading inflation indicators show that pressure will only increase in the coming months. Output producer prices rose by 2% in March, the most significant jump since May 2008. Producer input prices jumped by 5.2% in just one month. In the more than 40-year history of this indicator, there has only been one such jump - in November 1979. At that time, we also saw a comparable annual increase of 19.2% for Input and 11.9% for Output Producer Price Indices. Such a jump in producer prices sets up that the pressure on consumer prices will not abruptly ease in April and May. The cable has fallen below 1.3000, renewing 17-month lows Just like an emerging market currency, the British pound reacted to the above-expected price hike by falling. In response to inflation, the weakening of the currency shows concern about whether the central bank can get prices under control before their rise destroys a sizable chunk of the pound's purchasing power. In recent days, Fed officials have been increasingly open to promoting that FOMC can suppress inflation only via pressing growth. This approach is helping the dollar locally. If the Bank of England adopts this rhetoric, the pound may be able to swim against the current. But until then, a systematic sell-off in the GBPUSD from the peaks near 1.4270, reached exactly three weeks ago, is conspicuous. The cable has fallen below 1.3000, renewing 17-month lows and consolidating below the psychologically crucial circular level.
Global equities staged a notable rally | Saxo Bank

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Gained 15%! (BTC) Bitcoin Lost 0.8%, Ethereum (ETH) Added 1.8%, Avalanche (AVAX) 0.9% Up

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.04.2022 08:40
BTC was down 0.8% on Tuesday, ending the day near $39,500. On Wednesday morning, the price stabilized around the $40K level, showing a slight increase of 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Cryptos try to stabilize Ethereum added 1.8% during the same time. Other leading altcoins from the top ten are showing growth in the range from 0.9% (Avalanche) to 3.7% (Binance Coin). The Shiba Inu Token (SHIB) has also jumped by 15%, becoming the growth leader in the TOP-100. According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1.5% per day to $1.87 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.4% to 40.7% on a sharper rebound in altcoins. Related article: What Are Altcoins? (ADA) Cardano Price, (LTC) Litecoin And Bitgert (BRISE) Analysis Сrypto market attempts to stabilize after the downturn caused the Fear and greed index to strengthen. It added 5 points up to 25 by Wednesday morning and remained in a state of "extreme fear". Bitcoin remains the lame duck of the crypto market due to the prevailing price decline in traditional financial sectors. BTC tried to correct upwards on Tuesday after a strong drawdown the day before. According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew $134 million from crypto funds last week, the most in 13 weeks. BTC can outperform bonds and stocks It is still difficult to find confirmation of the hypothesis that cryptocurrencies are a hedge against inflation. The latest US consumer inflation data showed an 8.5% rise in prices in the US. During the same time, the capitalization of the crypto market in dollars decreased by 13%, reducing the purchasing power of the initial capital by more than 20%. Speaking of Germany, for example, with its 7.6% price increase per year, an 8% depreciation of the euro against the dollar should also be added to the equation, which will further increase the losses. Investments in gold, on the other hand, give real (inflation-adjusted) growth of 8%, and in euros - more than twice as much. Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that this relationship is critical for retail investors, most of whom make decisions based on rather impulsive estimates and proceed from the foreseeable horizon. At the same time, the institutional approach still points to the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies. Bank of America believes that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could outperform bonds and stocks in the face of a potential global economic recession. Investment agency Morningstar believes that cryptocurrencies have no equal in terms of income among assets, although they have too high volatility. This is similar to the issue of new assets that the US stock market went through about a hundred years ago. By the beginning of the new century: it was the sector of high-tech companies, and now is the turn of cryptocurrencies.
Near-extreme expectations from Fed pull the dollar up, stocks down

Near-extreme expectations from Fed pull the dollar up, stocks down

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.04.2022 09:55
Expectations for further moves by the Fed have an increasing impact on markets, pushing the dollar up to extreme highs and pressuring stocks. Futures are laying on an 84% chance of a 50-point rate hike in early May and a 92% chance of a 50 or more-point hike in mid-June, including a 37% chance of a 75-point tightening. These expectations are high but hardly sustainable.Markets like to rush from one extreme to the other, and we think we are now close to going ridiculously far in their expectations. There is no chance that today's US inflation data will surprise with a slowdown in inflation, but it could still mark a peak followed by a decline, albeit from very high levels. However, it is unlikely that the Fed will follow such a scenario. The greater chance is that the American central bank would prefer to intervene at the short end of the curve by raising the Fed funds rate and all along the curve by regulating the sale of bonds from the balance sheet. Such an approach would help contain the yield curve inversion that is so frightening to market watchers, in their eyes, foreshadowing a new recession.However, markets need fundamental or verbal evidence to stop them from drifting in expectations. And with that in mind, the US inflation data coming out later today is worth investigating for signs of a slowdown in prices. For example, sectors such as the secondary car market or household goods, which have been pulling prices upwards, could now be contributing to the lowering of inflationary pressures.The current shift in expectations towards an extreme tightening from the Fed may peak somewhat later on before triggering a significant sell-off in the markets and a strengthening impulse for the USD.The Dollar Index broke through the psychologically important 100 level, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are testing their psychologically essential levels of 1.08 and 1.30. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to frighteningly lose value, and the Swiss franc is not attracting capital flows looking for safety.
Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Bitcoin loses strength due to the stock sell-off

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.04.2022 08:46
Bitcoin was down 7.4% on Monday, ending at around $39.9K, where it remains on Tuesday morning. Ethereum lost 8.9%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell in price from 6.7% (Binance Coin) to 13% (Terra). Cryptomarket: extreme fear According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency market capitalisation has fallen 5.2% overnight to $1.85 trillion, with the Bitcoin Dominance Index dropping 0.2 points to 41.1%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index lost 12 points to 20 by Tuesday, in a state of "extreme fear". Bitcoin collapsed on Monday, the most in almost two months, following global stock indices. In a sharp move, BTC plummeted under the 50-day moving average, dashing hopes that we saw a trend breakdown in March. Yesterday's drop in bitcoin and the continued pessimistic mood in financial markets open a direct and quick path to the March support area - near $38K, or even lower – to $32.5-35K. Miners dumped some bitcoins Conventional financial market participants have just started laying down the accelerated pace of rate hikes, expecting +50 points in May and the same amount in June. This is in stark contrast to the 25 point rises per quarter that we have seen since the global financial crisis. In this environment, liquidity leaves the financial markets, hitting the highest risk sectors the hardest. Because of this, we see a steep drop in cryptocurrency capitalisation and the Nasdaq index. According to CryptoQuant, miners dumped some bitcoins last week as the cryptocurrency declined. Bearish sentiment may dominate this week as the BTC exchange balance has risen again. The cryptocurrency market is threatened by a decline in US stock indices soon, according to BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange co-founder Arthur Hayes. Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 by the second quarter, Ethereum to $2,500. David Rubenstein, the co-founder of The Carlyle Group, believes that cryptocurrencies will increase amid growth in the crypto industry and political instability. According to a Nasdaq survey, 72% of financial advisers would invest client funds in cryptocurrencies if they had access to spot crypto-ETFs.
The French elections: effects on euro

The French elections: effects on euro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.04.2022 14:06
Politics is once again temporarily becoming the main driver for the single currency. EURUSD returned to 1.0925 on Monday, gaining 0.8% from Friday's lows on reports that incumbent Macron is ahead of far-right Le Pen and will potentially get even more votes in the second round on April 24th as the majority of those voting for alternative candidates lean towards Macron. The lowering of political risks is attracting buyers of the single currency as EURUSD fell late last week to 1.0850 - near the lows of March and a support area in the pair between February and May 2020. In 1997, the EURUSD (then still non-cash) was gaining support near this level, but a return to 1.08 two years later triggered a capitulation. The EURUSD sell-off then had only halted two years later after the single currency had lost a quarter of its value and only after ECB interventions. The French elections and the events in Ukraine have enough potential to trigger a historic euro move away from that line. A strong pullback under 1.0800 opens the direct road to 1.05 (pandemic lows), but it may only be the first step in a long term slide of the single currency towards 0.8500. The opposite is also true: the political détente in the coming weeks may fundamentally change the attitude towards the single currency, making purchases attractive in the long term from the current levels. Investors and traders should pay close attention to the EURUSD in the coming weeks because the following dynamics will be decisive for the number one currency and the entire forex market for many months.
Market Shocked! Bitcoin Went Back! It's A Significant Retraction!

Market Shocked! Bitcoin Went Back! It's A Significant Retraction!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.04.2022 08:46
At the start of Monday, Bitcoin's price temporarily fell below $42K, losing more than 3.5% from Sunday's peak value. This is clear evidence of a tug-of-war between bullish retail traders and professional bidders who sold risky assets in response to pressure on stock prices. Altcoins went down By the start of the day on Monday, the crypto-currency fear and greed index had lost 2 points to 32, settling in the fear territory. According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 2% to 1.95B in a day. This clearly reflects the increased pressure on weaker altcoins due to the curtailment of risk demand. The share of bitcoin in the capitalization of the entire crypto market is now 41.3% (+0.6 points in 7 days and +0.3 in a day). In total, BTC has been losing 1% over the past 24 hours and 8.5% over the week. Ethereum is down 2% and 9% in the last 7 days, and top altcoins fell in price by 1.3% (Dogecoin) and up to 7.4% (Terra).   Why cryptos are correlating with Nasdaq The crypto market is again increasing its correlation with the dynamics of stocks, or rather, it is guided by the high-tech Nasdaq index. This relationship is easily explained by the fact that in both cases, investors are betting on a progressive idea and not on a stable income. The original plan, in which cryptocurrencies would become an alternative haven for capital outside of the traditional banking system, has not been tested by the military events in Ukraine. As it turns out, crypto exchanges value the idea of legally earning commissions on transactions and on the placement of tokens much more than the original off-system and apolitical approach. Thus, the cryptocurrency market is increasingly becoming a platform for the assets of ever smaller projects in the technology sector. There is nothing wrong with this in the long run, but right now, such a direct correlation with stocks can do a disservice. Against the backdrop of tightening monetary policy, stocks are under increased pressure. Amid deteriorating sentiment, bitcoin dropped to a 50-day moving average near $42K. Fixing below this level may open a direct path to the area of March lows near $38K.
Buffett's time, not Wood's

Buffett's time, not Wood's

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.04.2022 16:27
While one hears in the markets several times a year that "the world will never be the same", it is easy to see market cyclicality, if not in individual stock names, then in sectors.Over the past 14 months, Katie Wood's flagship fund, Ark Innovation (ARKK), has lost 62% from its peak. This is the second time in the last month that the fund's value has returned below pre-pandemic levels.In contrast, the S&P500 index is now a third higher than those levels, an essential indication of how difficult it is to beat the broad market. Buffett has repeatedly said that passive investment in the broad market index is a better long-term strategy than active stock selection.ARKK's five-fold rise from pandemic lows in less than eleven months has often been proof of the value of active management and betting on innovative companies. And all these years, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund has been sitting on cash mountain. But over the last month, it has already made three major purchases: Occidental Petroleum, Alleghany and HP. These purchases are seen as classic value company choices.Two signals are worth reading in this old bull's wake-up call: 1) valuations of "value" companies have become attractive and 2) hoarding cash is no longer efficient.Markets stopped valuing growth companies about 14 months ago, switching to commodity companies, accompanied by years of record inflation following the price spike. The growth cycle for commodities companies is hardly over, as commodities continue to appreciate, and there is no sign of a correction on the horizon.Investors looking for new ideas to diversify their portfolios are likely to focus more on so-called value stocks, whose businesses are resilient to economic cycles and pay stable dividends. Not only has this trading idea sounded boring in recent years, but indeed sector stocks have seriously underperformed the market. Now the market may well switch to buying "value" to park capital in sectors with a stable market and a more predictable outlook. After all, the fog hangs over the market from one of the sharpest monetary policy tightening in decades, amplified by logistical problems. Meanwhile, governments in developed countries have limited stimulus because of inflation and record levels of public debt to GDP. In a hard landing scenario for the economy, temporary parking of capital in cash in the coming months may make sense, at least until there are consistent signs of cooling price growth and degrading inflation expectations.
Russia: You Will Be Shocked How Many Crypto They Have!

Russia: You Will Be Shocked How Many Crypto They Have!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.04.2022 09:58
Bitcoin rose slightly, by 0.6%, to $43.6K. Ethereum added 1.6%, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: a 3% decline (Terra) to 6.2% growth (Solana). BTC is losing correlation with stocks? Bitcoin briefly dipped below $43K on Thursday but, by the end of the day, had offset most of the decline, remaining near Thursday's closing levels amid a rebound in US stock indices. According to Bloomberg, a renewed slide in stock indices could hit bitcoin hard. Short-term risks are rising as the US Federal Reserve intensifies its fight against inflation and rising interest rates and intends to embark on aggressive balance sheet cuts. In contrast, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz believes bitcoin is gradually losing its correlation with stock indices. He believes lower inflation and a stabilising economy will push bitcoin up. Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.2% to $2.02 trillion overnight. Bitcoin's dominance index declined 0.4% to 40.9%. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 3 points to 37 by Friday but did not come out of the "fear" state. Meta-universe and crypto regulation in Russia The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised that Meta is exploring the possibility of creating a cryptocurrency for the meta-universe to boost revenues due to the decline in popularity of their cash cow apps, Facebook and Instagram. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that 10 million Russians have over 10 trillion rubles ($128 billion) in crypto wallets, which is just under $1,000 per Russian resident. He also called for regulation of cryptocurrencies, although he rejected their recognition as a means of payment. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the war will accelerate Ukraine's cryptocurrency adoption. From examples in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, we have previously seen that the use of cryptocurrencies increases dramatically when national economies and local currencies weaken.
GBP To USD Shows Greenback Strength And GB's Vulnerability To Russia-Ukraine Tensions

GBP To USD Shows Greenback Strength And GB's Vulnerability To Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.04.2022 09:58
The US dollar works its way up against European currencies, including the British Pound. After a corrective bounce from March 15th to the 23rd, GBPUSD has returned to the downside. Most worryingly, this decline is coming very evenly. It is no longer a speculative flight of capital to safe havens in response to frightening news. The flat downtrend with a succession of lower local highs indicates a capital flight out of European countries. Britain is much less dependent on energy supplies from Russia but still bears an evident loss of economic growth due to the current situation. In addition, as the money hub for Europe, the UK is taking a hit due to worsening business sentiment and tighter financial conditions. The Bank of England's more determined move to raise the bank rate and cut QE is fueling the Pound's rise against the euro. The EURGBP pair is close to 0.8300, near the lower bound of an almost 6-year trading range. And so far, it isn't easy to find a reason to reverse the trend. In the meantime, the Pound still has too little strength to withstand a rising Dollar, whose economy is much less affected by the war in Europe. The inability of GBPUSD to develop a rebound above 1.3160 (61.8% of covid amplitude) sets up for further drawdown with near-term support near 1.2830 (50% of the rally) with the potential for a more profound decline at 1.2500 in the next few weeks.
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Will The Crude Oil Price Rise Anymore Or Is It A Decline Coming?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.04.2022 10:19
Despite our initial scepticism, there seem to be signs that the latest bullish trend in oil is breaking down. The WTI price ended Wednesday below $100 and below the support line of the rising trend through the lows since December. Over the last two weeks, the downtrend in oil has brought the price back to the area of the March lows and below the 50-day moving average. A further downward move would signal the breaking of the last momentum that culminated in a price flight in the first eight days of March. We consider the impulse in early March to be the final point of the oil rally. That capitulation of buyers in April 2020 took some contracts into negative territory, becoming the last chord of the multi-year bear market in oil. The latest US statistics package is also fueling the cautious outlook for oil. Weekly data published in the evening showed a rise in production to 11.8m BPD. Since January, this is a repeat of the highs and does not suggest a surge in drilling activity, but it is still a step towards increasing oil supplies on the market. Last week's reduction in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (-3.7M) outpaced the increase in commercial stockpiles (+2.4M). We have seen 3-4M barrel sales from SPR over the past three weeks, which looks like enough to stop the depletion of commercial reserves and stabilise the oil price. We simultaneously see a slowdown in oil demand due to high prices, a slowing economy, and a build-up in supply. In addition, Russian oil is not yet far out of the market but only redirected (albeit at a large discount) to Asia. Furthermore, OPEC+ continues to raise quotas, which should also work to restore inventory levels. It is doubtful that oil prices will return to "normal" levels of 2019 when the price of a barrel hovered around $60. It is much more likely that over the next year or two, prices will find balance in a range with the lower end of $75-85 and the upper end around $100. Dips towards the lower end of the range will spur demand and suppress upstream investment, while approaching the psychological upper bound will provoke new interventions by consuming countries and stimulate competition for market share among producers.
Altcoins: Is Shocking Dogecoin Price Prediction Coming? Solana Has Decreased Recently

Altcoins: Is Shocking Dogecoin Price Prediction Coming? Solana Has Decreased Recently

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.04.2022 08:40
Bitcoin has been losing 4.5% within last 24 hours, falling back to $43.3K. Ethereum lost 4.9%, and other leading altcoins fell in price from 3.5% (BNB) to 9.7% (Solana). Hydra servers were arrested According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 4.7% overnight to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added another 0.1pp to 41.3% on the back of more altcoins weakening. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed grounded at 34 by Thursday morning, having lost 14 points and turning into a state of fear. This is the lowest value in last two weeks. News about the arrest of the servers of the darknet resource Hydra with the confiscation of 540 bitcoins, as well as sanctions against the Garantex crypto exchange could have a negative effect on the whole crypto market. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised that after several days of sliding, the fall of bitcoin accelerated during trading in Europe, reaching two-week lows just above $43,000. The negative dynamics of the cryptocurrency market was facilitated by the fall of global stock indices. The published minutes of the Fed meeting showed tougher rhetoric than expected, which put pressure on all risk-sensitive assets. DODE: this dog is not able to swim yet According to Glassnode, the number of bitcoins on exchanges has fallen to the lowest since August 2018. Investors have been withdrawing coins since the beginning of March, which is often taken as a signal to keep Bitcoin out of the market for a long time. This reduction in active supply often pushes the price up. However, now we are also seeing increased sales from institutionals. Reports that Tesla's CEO Elon Musk had become Twitter's largest shareholder initially caused Dogecoin to soar more than 20%, as Musk had previously used the coin to pay for small Tesla goods. Potentially, there could be more applications for Doge on Twitter. However, by Thursday morning its price returned to the levels of the beginning of the week, still showing that this "dog" is not yet able to swim against the current, just as Bitcoin cannot become a meaningful fish against a big pond of stock markets.
Nasdaq 100, Dow are on the verge of a 20-40% drop from the peak

Nasdaq 100, Dow are on the verge of a 20-40% drop from the peak

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.04.2022 16:14
Stock market indices have reversed downwards as sustained dollar strength with tightening financial and trading conditions worldwide worsens the outlook for companies. From the technical analysis perspective, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq100 fail to consolidate above their 200-day moving averages and major round levels – 35,000 and 15,000, respectively. Nasdaq100 futures have lost more than 4% since Tuesday, with the Dow Jones down 2%, which is a pretty sharp reversal and often heralds a substantial further decline. The decline in stocks on war fears left hopes that the situation might soon be resolved. But in the case of stocks dropping due to Fed and other major central banks' policy tightening, there is little hope of a reversal soon.The last time the Fed raised its key rate by 50 points was in May 2000, and the Nasdaq had peaked two months earlier. It took more than two years for the index to rebound from the bottom, and it did not manage to consolidate higher until late 2016 finally.If the Fed minutes coming out later today do not dissuade the market from a challenging scenario, in the current environment, a correction of the Nasdaq 100 could take the index into the 10,000 area from the peak of 16,600, which would be a 40% pullback from the peak.In a pessimistic scenario, the Dow Jones opens the road to 28,300-29,000, corresponding to a 21-23% pullback from the historical highs. Alternatively, the Fed might try to reassure the markets, as it did in February, that they are too far gone with their fears of Fed firmness. And the first step in that will be the FOMC minutes published today and subsequent comments from FOMC members.
Is US Dollar About To Be Fuelled With Rocket Propeller!? Fed's Rhetoric Supports Greenback

Is US Dollar About To Be Fuelled With Rocket Propeller!? Fed's Rhetoric Supports Greenback

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.04.2022 10:50
The dollar is rising against most of its major rivals on the latest hawkish comments from the Fed. The futures market lays a 77% chance of a 50 point rate hike at the next meeting in a month from 27% a month ago. FOMC member Lyell Brynard said yesterday that she expects a combination of balance sheet cuts and rate hikes to make Fed policy more neutral later this year. Although no 50 point hike follows directly from those words, markets are paying attention to the tightening of rhetoric rather than the Fed trying to cool the panic around inflation as it did last year. A breeding ground for a new wave of dollar strength is being created in this environment. On Wednesday morning, the dollar index to a basket of FX’s six most popular currencies hit new highs in May 2020, climbing to 99.7. Rising US bond yields in response to a more hawkish Fed tilt feed interest in dollar assets with more attractive yields. Separately, investors are “voting” for America against Europe because of the economic outlook. The imposition of sanctions, injury to business, and supply chain disruptions are affecting prices and materially shrinking the economy. This situation leads to monetary policy in the Eurozone promising to remain more accommodative for the foreseeable future to maintain growth and reduce the debt servicing costs of governments. High inflation increases the tolerance of the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury for a rising dollar. Policies now support the competitiveness of US exports, and a stronger dollar will help curb rising import prices. With such inputs, we should not be surprised if EURUSD rewrites the March lows in the coming days, dropping below 1.0800 and then diving further in search of a bottom until the end of the year with the potential for declines as low as 1.04-1.05.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

4167 Bitcoins Bought By MicroStrategy! Dogecoin Gains 7.5%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.04.2022 08:59
Bitcoin was down 1% on Tuesday, ending the day at around $45.8K. In low-liquid trading at the start of the day on Wednesday, the first cryptocurrency was losing more than 3.5%, briefly dropping to $44.4K, now stabilizing 1k higher. From the levels exactly a day ago, Ethereum lost 4.4%, among other altcoins, the decline prevails, with the exception of a few big names. Terra adds 0.6%, staying close to its highs. Dogecoin is up 7.5%. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank by 3.6% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.2% to 41.2%. The cryptocurrency index of fear and greed by Wednesday morning lost 5 points to 48 while remaining in a neutral state. Bitcoin has continued to correct on Tuesday amid a decline in US stock indices. Judging by the market dynamics on Wednesday morning, we saw the triggering of algorithmic stop orders, which quickly sent the price down. However, very soon market participants returned to cautious purchases. Since the beginning of the month, the bulls have clearly not been able to develop an offensive, and we see the predominance of selling on growth towards $47,000. On the other hand, support around the $44,000 level is still in place. Software developer MicroStrategy bought 4,167 bitcoins on credit for $190 million. The company currently owns 129.2 thousand BTC worth almost $4 billion. last days. The fact that even such a large buyer failed to warm up the market makes us look to the near future with caution. Bloomberg believes that a rally in the current environment is unlikely. The market is entering a bearish phase similar to that of the spring of 2019. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also believes that BTC will be under pressure from the US Federal Reserve to raise rates this year. Today, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will make her first speech on cryptocurrencies. Her presentation will focus on regulation and investor protection. Yellen has previously criticized digital currencies for their anonymous nature of transactions. The US government has previously indicated that it wants to see cryptocurrencies private but not anonymous. This is similar to the current principles of the banking system, where the government knows the owners and has the ability by law to seize or restrict access to assets, but these data are generally not disclosed publicly.
Many Investors Wonder What Stocks To Buy Today As Chinese Tech Stocks Are Recovering

Many Investors Wonder What Stocks To Buy Today As Chinese Tech Stocks Are Recovering

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 05.04.2022 10:19
Nasdaq100 has added over 2% on Monday, in contrast with a more modest gain of 0.8% for the S&P500 and a barely notable 0.3% rise for the Dow Jones. But this is not a signal of general optimism from market participants; instead, it’s a switch in focus to Chinese companies. Often the outperformance of technology-rich Nasdaq is taken as a signal of an accelerating economy and a move by investors to look for assets that outperform the broader market during an economic boom. But along with that, we would see the Russell Index, which includes 2,000 small US stock market companies, outperform. And it was only up 0.2% over Monday, struggling to move into positive territory by the end of the day yesterday. On the other hand, Chinese companies are going from weak to growth drivers. However, this is nothing more than a recovery from lows after a year of aggressive declines. Earlier in March, China’s H-shar lost more than half its value in 13 months of sell-off. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 40% at its lowest point, plunging to 2016 lows. In the first half of March, the most significant acceleration came on signals that China and the US had moved from trade wars to financial wars as the latter threatened to delist. However, financial market turbulence is the last thing Xi Jinping needs this year, as there will be an election at the end of it, where he will be the leading candidate. Improving the economic situation is often the most effective way for the incumbent to gain electoral support. And China has a lot to work with. Much the same can be said for the US, where the November Senate elections will be held. Democrat Biden’s record-low approval rating plays against his party in the coming elections and the rising stagflation threat. The threat of delisting from the US is a blow to prestige, but it also closes off access to the softest financial terms for new companies and the deepest pool of liquidity. China could only afford it in the event of mania in Chinese markets and a booming Chinese economy. But that is not the case right now. The PRC economy lags behind its forecast growth trajectory due to continued covid lockdowns. Achieving the expected 5.5% GDP growth this year requires stimulus and easing of monetary policy, regardless of inflation risks and without regard to the rest of the world, which is tightening policy. This is a favourable environment for the market, at least for the time being. The Chinese equity market thus ceases to be a ‘sick man’, dragging global equity indices down and suppressing investor interest. On the contrary, even after returning to 5-week highs, Chinese equities still look very cheap, turning into a leading idea for the markets with a 9% jump in Baidu and a 6.6% rise in Alibaba on Monday. Placed amongst others in the US, Alibaba and Baidu, the biggest of which are now pulling the indices up, spreading positivity across the entire tech sector. Twitter’s 27% jump in shares on reports of Musk’s 9.2% stake in the company says more about the market’s mood to look for growth drivers than how much this passive share of the Tesla CEO can help the social network. And that’s good news a couple of weeks before the start of the new reporting season after a worrying first quarter.
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5 billion "Metaversers" And $13 Trillion Metaverse Market Cap By Year 2030!?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 05.04.2022 08:56
BTC was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day near $46,300. Since the start of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency has strengthened by 1% to $46.7K. EU investors are buying up Bitcoin Bitcoin corrected down on Monday, updating three-day lows just above $45,000. By the end of the day, BTC was able to win back almost the entire decline against the backdrop of positive dynamics in US stock indices. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 0.6%, as other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 2.2% (Solana) to a rise of 4.8% (Dogecoin). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 0.7% over the day to $2.17 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.3% to 41%. Cryptocurrency index of fear and greed added another 1 point by Tuesday, to 53, remaining in neutral territory. According to CoinShares, institutional investors invested $180 million in crypto funds last week. Europeans again showed the most activity, while American investors remained on the sidelines. Long-term crypto investors continue to accumulate bitcoin, the IntoTheBlock report notes. BTC as a beacon of global demand Without significant news in the cryptocurrency sector, bitcoin is again working as an indicator of global demand for risky assets. Its positive dynamics on Tuesday morning is a positive signal for stocks at the start of the day. However, it will be possible to speak with confidence about the local victory of the bulls only after BTCUSD fixes above the 200-day moving average, which is now passing near 48300. Meanwhile, investment bank JPMorgan warned investors of an imminent slowdown in the growth of the cryptocurrency market, as indicated by the decrease in the share of stablecoins in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. The metaverse market will reach $13 trillion by 2030, according to Citibank. At the same time, the user base of the metaverses will grow to 5 billion people in the coming years. According to an NBC News survey, 21% of Americans have already used cryptocurrencies for various purposes.
It's A Good Time To Watch How Are Stock Prices Determined In Changing Circumstances (Feat. S&P 500 Chart)

It's A Good Time To Watch How Are Stock Prices Determined In Changing Circumstances (Feat. S&P 500 Chart)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.04.2022 10:32
Financial markets are clinging to positivity on Monday morning after a modest rise on Friday. Robust US labour market data reinforced expectations that the Fed will press the monetary policy brake harder. However, this news is countered by optimism that a strong labour market will allow the economy to avoid a recession by providing a soft landing. Furthermore, buyers' interest is supported by China's confirmation of cooperation in the audit of local companies according to US regulations. April has been described as a historically favourable month for equity markets, so the warning signals from outside are so far dissipating into buying streams after the correction at the end of last week. Against the market at the end of March, there was profit-taking activity after the more than 11% growth for S&P500 and an even sharper recovery for European and Asian indices from the March lows. The resurgence of positive sentiment among participants is setting up that buying near the close of trading on Friday and early on Monday is a sign of the end of the mini-correction, which will be followed in the coming days by a renewal of the late March highs. However, there are serious doubts about the market's ability to sustain the positive momentum in a broader context. Fed officials say they are considering a 50 point rate hike at the start of May and kick-starting the selling of securities off the balance sheet. The Fed raised the interest rate by 50 points in one meeting in May 2000, cementing the dot-com bubble's melting down for the next three years. Regarding China and the US, we should also be under no illusions. Over the last four years, we have seen many periods of truce, but the general trend towards more confrontation has continued, albeit along a somewhat winding road. An essential ally of the stock market is a strong economy. Investors are shifting capital from bonds to equities as a growing economy makes it possible to count on rising corporate earnings. However, this could prove to be a death trap for bulls. By buying now, they are pushing up equity indices, signalling to the Fed that markets are ready for a tightening. Historically, central banks in similar circumstances have tightened policy until markets are stressed, and economies are on the verge of recession.
Can BTCUSD Reach Ca. $5M!? It's Approaching $50k At The Moment...

Can BTCUSD Reach Ca. $5M!? It's Approaching $50k At The Moment...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.04.2022 08:43
Bitcoin rose 0.6% over the past week, ending it at around $46,400. Ethereum added 8%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose in price from 0.1% (XRP) to 30% (Solana). BTC found a balance According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1.3% over the week, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index over the same period of time sank by 1.5% points, to 40.7% due to the growth of altcoins. At the beginning of the new week, the cryptocurrency index of fear and greed rose from 48 to 52, remaining within the neutral range. Bitcoin has corrected down since Thursday along with the decline in stock indices. Noticeable resistance was provided by the $48K level with the 200-day moving average passing close to it. Over the weekend, the first cryptocurrency found a balance near $46K. Bulls are preventing Bitcoin from falling The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised that buyers manage to keep bitcoin from falling to the area of previous peaks near $45, turning the former resistance into effective support. However, a breakout of the 200-day moving average is still required to confirm bullish sentiment. Breaking out of the $45-48K range could signal the start of a broader trend in the direction of the breakout. In early April, the commemorative 19 millionth coin was mined in the bitcoin network. At the moment, more than 90% of the total emission of the first cryptocurrency has been mined, which is limited to 21 million coins. Bitcoin can reach $4.8 million if it acquires the status of a global reserve asset, according to VanEck investment company. However, this scenario is unlikely. The top contender for the status of world reserve currency is now the Chinese yuan.
Natural Gas News - What Is The Market's Reaction To The Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

Natural Gas News - What Is The Market's Reaction To The Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.04.2022 14:46
The energy sector has retreated markedly from its highs in the first days of March but remains a hot topic for markets. Europe’s gas market survived several bouts of fear that it would be without Russian gas. However, we only saw a fourfold increase in value in the first half of the month, followed by stabilisation at high, but not extreme, levels. At the beginning of the last week of March, the price was supported by a fall to EUR 1000 per thousand cubic metres compared to a peak of EUR 3400. This price dynamic clearly showed that the markets did not price for a gas disaster. The current gas payment scheme looks like a nice political compromise. Europe is paying for gas in euros and dollars (as negotiated), and Russia is getting roubles for gas (as it wanted). The net economic effect of such rearrangements is close to zero. Also, these measures are not binding for LNG exports and settlements with Japan. Besides, there is a caveat that a special commission may allow receiving currency in payment for gas. An additional calculation here is that new contracts will always include clauses about alternative payment methods, but they have little effect on the price. Nevertheless, the general upward trend in gas and oil prices is still in place. Spot gas prices in Europe are now six times higher than a year ago and two years ago in March. This does not mean a six-fold increase in prices for final consumers, as most supplies are under long-term contracts. Therefore, what we see in the Dutch TTF prices is nothing more than a struggle between speculators and small buyers in a relatively illiquid market. The NYMEX pricing is much more liquid and representative. Besides, it is pretty far from the conflict. Prices here are up 30% in one month and 130% year to date. Gas was up to $5.6 MMBtu yesterday but 14% below October’s highs near $6.5, making it hard to see market hysteria. Instead, it is just a relatively measured trend. The development of this trend has the potential to return the US gas price to October highs by the end of April due to Europe’s increased interest in non-Russian gas. At the same time, signs that Europe and Russia have managed to formalise some gas purchase terms for themselves are likely to return Dutch’s spot prices to levels near or below EUR 1000.
Economic Indicators To Affect US Dollar Rate Today. Awaiting Jobs Data

Economic Indicators To Affect US Dollar Rate Today. Awaiting Jobs Data

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.04.2022 10:37
On Friday, markets have gone into wait-and-see mode ahead of the US labour market data release later. Average market forecasts suggest that the economy created around 500K jobs in March, of which 480K came from the private sector. Such data would narrow the gap between the peak before the pandemic to 1.5 million. Given that some job seekers have left the job market during this time, it becomes clear how tight the market remains. And this will intensify the struggle of employers. From the new data, analysts, on average, expect a further acceleration of the wage growth to 5.5% YoY against 5.1% a month earlier and a 5.4% growth of the personal consumption price index in February. Thus, the labour market has an additional pro-inflationary effect on prices as more money is available in the US economy and competition for goods tightens. If the labour market does manage to add more than half a million jobs in March, we should expect a severe tightening of the rhetoric of the US monetary authorities in the coming weeks. It will not be surprising if we see more willingness of FOMC officials to hike the interest rate by 50 points at once on the 05th of May. For the speculative currency market, robust US employment data has the potential to put the Dollar back on the upside, making the US the only economy capable of such a sharp monetary policy tightening in the coming months. The dollar index has been moving in an upward channel since the middle of last year, adding more than 11% from the bottom to the peak. Earlier in the week, the DXY pulled back after the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul. However, monetary policy could provide continued and sustained support for the US currency, very soon returning the Dollar to renew its two-year highs in the area above 100. For EURUSD, this could mean a consolidation under 1.1000 and GBPUSD under 1.3000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction - BTC Hitting $576K In April!?

Bitcoin Price Prediction - BTC Hitting $576K In April!?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.04.2022 08:53
Bitcoin was down 3% on Thursday, ended the day at $45.7K. On Friday morning, the pressure has continued, taking the price down 4.6% to $44.8K. Bitcoin: March-April BTC ended last moth lower amid falling US stock indices. In total, BTC added 10% and demonstrated strength for the second month in a row. Historically, April is considered to be one of the best months for the benchmark crypto: during the past 11 years, Bitcoin gained in April eight times and declined only three times respectively. If Bitcoin shows the same growth this time, it could end the month around $576K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised that the local picture on the chart shows the advantage of bears, who managed to keep BTCUSD above the 200-day moving average. It will be possible to talk about the final breakdown of the growth momentum if BTCUSD finally falls below $44K. It should be mentioned that April is also a strong month for stock markets. Puttiung all together, the new month begins with optimism and the mood to look for a moment to buy on a decline, especially given the dense influence of institutional sentiment on the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency. Kiyosaki  predicted the dollar collapse According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% to $2.05 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell 0.1 points to 41.4%. The fear and greed indicator rolled back exactly to the middle of the scale and stopped at 50 points. Ethereum lost 4% during last 24 hours. Other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 4.4% (XRP) to 7% (Polkadot). The exception was Solana (+0.5%), which continued to grow as the OpenSea NFT platform had added support for tokens on the SOL blockchain. Amongst the news, a legendary writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki warned of a "sky-high" US national debt and predicted collapse of the dollar. Keeping that in mind, he urged to invest in alternative assets:  gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. It should be noted that Kiyosaki has repeatedly predicted the collapse of the dollar, but his predictions have not yet come true.
Black Gold Down, Hawkish Fed Is Here, Warren Buffet Is Shopping

A Chance Of A Positive Crude Oil Price Forecast?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.03.2022 12:27
Biden’s team has announced that it is considering releasing up to 180 million barrels of Oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserves over the next 180 days. According to the latest weekly estimate, about one-third of the existing Strategic Petroleum Reserve of just over 568M barrels. Since last September, the USA has been actively cutting this reserve, selling around 9%, with an 8% cut since October, when Biden announced coordinated market interventions with other countries to bring down the price of Oil and influence inflation. Interestingly, however, US producers are still unable to increase supply substantially. According to the latest data, production last week averaged 11.7m barrels, having been stuck near these levels for six months. But it is clear from the trend of declining commercial and strategic reserves that the US needs to produce significantly more to reverse the trend. America is also promising to ramp up gas supplies to Europe to help it move away from Russian gas. But it is also increasing the depletion of Oil as a first gas substitute. The large-scale selling looks like a broad-based measure, and the market has reacted accordingly at the moment, with WTI down 5%, testing the $100/bbl mark again. However, such sales look like a temporary measure as they do not represent a credible long-term solution, which could be a production stimulus in both the US and OPEC countries. At its peak in March 2020, the USA was producing 13m barrels per day, 1.3m barrels above current levels. However, it is clear to see how the pandemic has crippled the industry in the US, where production growth has slowed sharply compared to the 2011-2015 and 2017-2020 momentum. Furthermore, it is logical to expect the US and Europe to step up efforts and offer more ‘carrots’ to OPEC and sanctioned Iran and Venezuela, which have a spare production capacity in the short term and the potential to increase production multiples in the long term. Until then, we should expect the upward trend in Oil that emerged last December to remain in place, taking the price steadily above $120 before the end of the year.
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It's Not A Surprise Many Investors Wonder Which Altcoins To Buy

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.03.2022 08:53
Bitcoin has been losing 0.7% in the last 24 hours to $47K. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose from 0.3% (XRP) to 8.6% (Solana). BTC is going lower According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.7% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The dominance index immediately fell by 0.6 points to 41.5% due to the strengthening of altcoins. Cryptocurrency index of fear and greed by Thursday rolled back from 55 to 52 points and is now in a neutral state. Solana led the way with news from NFT platform OpenSea, which announced in April that they would add support for tokens on the SOL blockchain. Bitcoin continues to cautiously retreat lower from its 200-day moving average at $48,200, building up strength ahead of a likely move north. The decline in US stock indices on Wednesday after four days of growth also did not contribute to the positive dynamics. Investors are searching for new ideas The FxPro Analyst Team emphasised the outstripping growth of altcoins: it is worth paying attention to in order to understand that among cryptocurrency traders there are no fears for the sector, but there is a search for new ideas, away from institutional capital and the eyes of politicians. There is an influx of stablecoins to centralized platforms, which may indicate the interest of investors in the upcoming purchases of cryptocurrencies. According to a survey by blockchain company StarkWare, 50% of Americans see cryptocurrencies as the future of the financial system. According to Morning Consult, more than 91% of Americans have already heard about cryptocurrencies, of which 19% are owners of digital assets. Bitcoin miners made $3 billion in three months, according to Coin Metrics. ETH miners earned more in the same time period, about $3.7 billion.
Bitcoin – Massive Support

What Price Will Bitcoin Reach In The Near Future?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 30.03.2022 10:50
BTC was down 1.1% on Tuesday, ending the day near $47,400, and has been remaining close to that level on Wednesday morning. Bitcoin: return of the bullish trend According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.7% over the day to $2.13 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index remained at 42.1%. The Cryptocurrency Index of Fear and Greed for Wednesday is down 1 point to 55, but still is on greed territory. Bitcoin slowed down ahead of strong resistance at $48,000, near which the 200-day moving average also lies. The bulls are taking a tactical breather after the 28% rally from the lows seen on March 14th. At the same time, the positive mood on the global stock markets sets up that we will already see a test of this important level today. The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that now we will see the return of the bullish trend only after a couple of days of confident growth above the 200-day Moving Average. But even then, many participants may still have doubts about the rally since, in December, under similar conditions, it was not possible to develop an offensive. Ethereum lost 0.5%, as other leading altcoins from the top ten fell in price, with -0.8% (Binance Coin) to -4.1% (XRP). The only exception was Terra (+7%), which reached its all-time high. Musk will create a network According to CryptoQuant, Crypto whales have started sending bitcoin to exchanges again, which is a wake-up call. Typically, investors send cryptocurrencies back to the exchanges for their subsequent sale. CryptoQuant does not exclude that BTC will move to an active decline in the near future. However, the sale of bitcoins can also take place to buy altcoins, which are growing stronger than the first cryptocurrency in the bull market. DataDash CEO Nicholas Merten believes that short-term investors and traders with leverage influence the volatility of bitcoin, and "whales" influence the growth. In his opinion, crypto whales have been buying up BTC over the past six months. CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, plans to create his own open-source social network with support for the DOGE cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed tightening tax reporting rules for cryptocurrency holders. Best regards,Elena Nazarova
Ceasing (?) Russia Vs. Ukraine Conflict And Indices - Eurostoxx 50, FTSE 100 And DAX

Ceasing (?) Russia Vs. Ukraine Conflict And Indices - Eurostoxx 50, FTSE 100 And DAX

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 30.03.2022 10:23
The Russia-Ukraine peace talks have revived momentum in risk-sensitive assets. The market reaction to the outcome of the peace negotiations brought the indices back to where they had last been before the last days of February. The S&P500 reached its highest levels in two and a half months. European indices had bottomed as early as the 7th of March. Still, this recovery momentum stalled about a week ago, with the Euro50, FTSE100 and DAX all approaching levels where they were at the end of February, during the early days of the military conflict. The military conflict is far from over, and businesses have been badly affected by the sanctions and jump in commodities and energy. In addition, the turnaround in the indices took place well before the progress of the negotiations. Both these thesis lead us to look for other reasons behind the current share rally. In our opinion, the answer is to be found in monetary and fiscal policy. The uncertainty in Europe and the blow to the global economy looks like an important reason for the Fed to tone down its rhetoric last month and, as a result, raise the rate by 25 points rather than the 50 that we were prepared for in January. Monetary policy is still aimed at normalisation, but the authorities act more cautiously than required by the conditions of even higher inflationary pressures than estimated in January. Fiscal policy is considerably softer: Europe is discussing new stimulus and the next issue of EU joint bond; the USA is increasing defence spending and domestic programmes at new records. The remaining highly soft monetary policy and supportive fiscal policy create the conditions for further strengthening of the US and European stock markets. China is also contributing its support. The People’s Bank of China continues to inject liquidity into the financial system, supporting the pull into risky assets. Chinese indices have recovered much of March’s slump, adding 11% from the bottom in the China A50, 23% in the Hang Seng and 26% in the H-shar. It is also worth noting that stock markets are far from the overheated area, which leaves room for further upside moves in the coming days.
Crude Oil: not a one-way street, but still bulls in charge

Crude Oil: not a one-way street, but still bulls in charge

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 09:50
Brent lost 7.7% to $106.4 on Monday on fears of a drop in demand due to a lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial hub. In addition, the Saudi and Yemeni cease-fire and the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey helped reduce the heat on the energy market.However, Monday's decline looks like only a temporary respite, and all these factors are still too weak to break the momentum that has been sustained since December. Brent has gained 2% since Tuesday morning to $108.5, with buyers buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia might raise the selling price of its Oil by as much as 5% in May. The pipeline accident in the Caspian Sea and falling exports from Russia are also on the side of oil bulls right now.OPEC has denied plans to accelerate quota increases at its next monthly meeting on 31 March. Cartel officials also note that it is not yet possible to replace Oil from Russia entirely.Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear programme talks have taken a few steps back, removing hopes of a supply surge from the market.US oil producers are in no hurry to exploit market conditions. The number of working rigs is increasing, but no production increase has taken place so far, which has averaged 11.6 million barrels per day over the last six months. US commercial oil inventories are now 17.8% lower than a year ago.Oil has remained in a bull market even though its movements are no longer unidirectional. From a state of panic buying in early March, Oil has become more pragmatic. Its price now looks high compared with levels a year and two years ago, but from 2011 to 2014, it traded around current levels, with demand being notably weaker.A period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty is setting up a $100-120 Brent range in the coming weeks. A break in the upward trend will only occur with a final turn towards détente.
Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 08:51
BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.
Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 12:44
There has been a lot of talk lately about the decline of the US dollar's reserve status. However, investors and traders should separate long-term trends from short-term market impulses. Reserve fund managers often prefer to refrain from active selling so as not to cause unnecessary market turbulence, so all reserve trends are stretched out over decades. As long as there is no real threat to the existence of the dollar and the solvency of the US government, managers will avoid making active moves to sell dollar assets. And all the revolutionary changes, such as switching to national currencies, will only result in CBs buying fewer new dollars. But it has little effect on the exchange rate. Right now, we are seeing the opposite picture, as the main competitors are under pressure. Investors are getting rid of the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan accelerates its currency printing to buy bonds out of the market to stem rising yields. The local government is overburdened with debt, and the economy is still stalling. The only market solution is a devaluation of the yen, which would make exports from Japan more competitive and boost domestic spending. The single currency is suffering from a spike in energy prices and economic problems related to the war in Ukraine. Trading below 1.1000, the EURUSD pair is now where it was heading for the last six months before the pandemic. The medium-term outlook for the dollar is largely influenced by the extent to which the Fed will be able to implement policy tightening. More accurately, how Fed policy compares with the policy of the Bank of Japan, the ECB, or another major central bank. The Fed is clearly acting with greater amplitude, setting itself up for 7 rate hikes this year, which is far more than one would expect from Japan or the eurozone. Moreover, the US remains much further away from the war in Ukraine in business and trade terms than its biggest competitors, which means it can continue to benefit from capital inflows as a haven.
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Crypto - A "Financial Bubble" And Fictional Backup?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 08:39
Bitcoin rose 9.1% over the past week, ending it around $46,100. Ethereum added 9.5%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose in price from 3.2% (XRP) to 27.4% (Cardano). The exception was Terra (-0.4%). Bitcoin broke the resistance According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 9.9% in a week, to $2.14 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.2% to 40.6%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 18 points in a week to 49 and moved from "fear" to neutral. Bitcoin rose for the second week in a row against the backdrop of strengthening stock indices. On Sunday, BTC broke through strong resistance around $45,000, which reversed its downward movement several times in February and early March. The technical picture favors further gains as Bitcoin climbed above the 100-day moving average (MA) for the first time since early December and heads towards the 200-day MA ($48,200). Cryptos found new drivers for the growth The FxPro analyst team mentioned a possible driver of the uptrend in BTC are rumors about the intentions of the non-profit organization Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) to invest in bitcoin. On March 27, it became known that LFG bought more than $1.1 billion worth of coins to ensure the stability of the Terra USD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin. The best dynamics among altcoins was demonstrated by Cardano against the backdrop of the announcement of ADA staking by Coinbase crypto exchange. Meanwhile, well-known crypto critic Peter Schiff again criticized the cryptocurrency, comparing it to a financial bubble and calling it stupid for people to save their savings from inflation by buying BTC. According to Schiff, cryptocurrencies have no real value and are backed by people's trust in the same way as fiat currency.
Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 10:43
Oil and gas remain hot topics in the markets. Although these energy prices have corrected from their recent highs, the uptrend promised to be with us as long as there are no signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. Moreover, high energy prices are turning into a new reality that could stay with us for years to come.While most news headlines focus on spot gas price developments in Europe, an upward trend has also emerged in the US. This trend has intensified over the past ten days amid discussions about cutting gas supplies from Russia.Biden urged Europe to increase its US liquefied natural gas purchases, even though supplies were already double the previous year's level. Putin's demand to be paid for Russian gas in roubles makes these purchases as uncomfortable as possible. Such a move would accelerate Europe's rejection of Russian energy, proving to voters in the region that they cannot rely on Russian power.The demand for alternative gas from the US and the Middle East is growing. And this demand promises to be a long-term trend. Even in the event of a military de-escalation in the coming weeks, attitudes towards Russia in Europe and the US will be tainted for years, and European countries will continue their economically unprofitable reliance on gas from Russia.The US has all but tapped its spare capacity to produce and supply gas to Europe. It will take time to expand, so competition among buyers is now gaining momentum.Much of the same applies to Russian oil, which is exported at 4 million BPD and, with political will, could be fully substituted in less than a year. OPEC is not showing the necessary will and is in no hurry to take Russia's share of the global oil trade.While oil and gas consumers in Europe and some Asian countries are cutting back as much as possible on purchases from Russia, energy prices on global markets continue to rise. At the same time, the discount for spot prices for Russian oil and gas remains exceptionally high.Reducing Russia's 30% share of Europe's gas supply is painful and long-term. Finding a new balance could take several quarters or even years, during which energy prices will remain above long-term average levels or occasionally spike.
Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is trading above $44.1K on Friday, gaining 2.4% over the past day and 8.2% over the week. Increased inquiry for BTC Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency was in demand during the Asian and American sessions. The current values of BTC are consolidating in the area of 2-month extremes. In contrast to the previous test of these levels, this time, we see a smooth rise in the rate, indicating that the bulls still have some momentum. Also, over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 2.4%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten have strengthened from 0.5% (XRP) to 7.4% (Solana). The exception is Terra, which is shedding 1.8%, correcting part of its gains in the first half of the week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 2.3% to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1 percentage points to 41.8%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index added another 7 points to 47 and ended up in the neutral territory. Cardano leads the last week in terms of growth among top coins (+39%) as Coinbase added the possibility of staking cryptocurrency with a current estimated annual return of 3.75% per annum. Countries assess the risks of cryptos Credit Suisse reported that Bitcoin doesn't pose a threat to the banking sector as an alternative to fiat money and banking services. The CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, noted that military actions in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will increase the popularity of cryptocurrencies and accelerate their adoption. Despite the rally in global stocks over the past two weeks, financial conditions in the debt markets continue to deteriorate due to rising interest rates and inflation. Largely because of this, El Salvador has postponed the issuance of bitcoin bonds in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Since very active steps to raise key rates are expected in the next year and a half, and Bitcoin is far from the highs, it is unlikely that such bonds will be issued soon. The Bank of England intends to tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies due to the financial risks that their adoption carries. However, the Central Bank urged commercial banks to exercise maximum caution when dealing with these extremely volatile assets.
Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23
The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.
$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 09:22
Bitcoin is trading above $43K on Thursday morning, gaining 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. Bitcoin is trading around the resistance For the last ten days, we have seen a systematic increase in prices, although with a very modest amplitude by the standards of the crypto market. Ethereum added 3.4%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are in the range from +1% (XRP) to +12% (Dogecoin). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.8% over the past day, to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost another 0.2% to 41.7%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed has grown by 9 points, to 40. This is still a fear zone, but already close to neutral territory. Bitcoin retreated from the resistance at $43K on Tuesday. However, on Thursday it is making attempts to gain a foothold above this mark again. The last rollback in this case could be nothing more than a tactical retreat of the bulls in order to develop growth with renewed vigor. Nevertheless, confidence in the formation of a strong bullish momentum will come only after BTCUSD fixes above 45 thousand, from where we saw reversals in February and early March. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. It is clearly seen that their dynamics is now better than that of the first cryptocurrency. If this trend continues for a couple more days, the effect of a feedback loop may work, when the outstripping growth of altcoins will pull Bitcoin up. Market Cap may grow in 15 times Bank of America predicts that regulation of the cryptocurrency market will increase confidence and increase its capitalization by 15 times, up to $30 trillion. The former head of one of the divisions of Bank of America, David Woo, believes that bitcoin will face economic and geopolitical pressure after the launch of the state digital currency (CBDC) of the United States. China has already acted in a similar way, which has come closest to the introduction of the digital yuan. Thailand will ban the usage of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment from April 1. They declared that such payments have a negative impact on the financial system and reduce the effectiveness of the state's monetary policy.
Russian Roubles (RUB) As A Way To Pay For The Gas?

Russian Roubles (RUB) As A Way To Pay For The Gas?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 15:55
The Russian rubles adds more than 3% to the dollar, trading around 100 on news that "so-called unfriendly countries" will have to pay for gas in rubles. Impulsively (as the Russian currency market remains extremely illiquid), the USDRUB dropped below 95. This is indeed positive news for the Russian currency as it increases demand. But is it such a significant step? All exporters are now obliged to convert at least 80% of their foreign currency earnings into rubles. On the foreign exchange side, buying gas for rubles raises the bar to 100% for Gazprom and several other smaller exporters, but not for all jurisdictions (about 70% of total gas exports). For the balance of supply and demand of the ruble, this is a much less strong move than the initial order to convert 80% of all foreign exchange earnings into rubles. The news itself carries more of an emotional message for the markets. Still, the initial optimism could correct very quickly and is unlikely to be the mainstay for a sustained rally in the rubles. It also looks like an attempt to jab the USA, as selling energy for dollars has often been referred to as the basis of the reserve status of the USD in recent months. A secondary effect was the inversion of the spread between the USDRUB exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange and in Forex. Previously, in early March, USDRUB was traded up to 10 rubles less in Russia than abroad (though the spread diminished over time). Now USDRUB is settling at 98 on FX versus 100.4 on MOEX. Another secondary effect is a rise in oil prices of more than 5% since the start of the day, as some buyers will try to use the remaining alternative to gas, which can still be bought with dollars. Among the adverse effects, albeit in the medium term, it is worth pointing out that the switch to ruble settlements will accelerate a pullback of Russian gas by Europe, reducing export revenues, which has been a guarantee of ruble stability and a driver of economic growth.
Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:12
BTC rose 3.5% on Tuesday. At the peak of the day, the rate exceeded $43.2K, but by Wednesday morning, it rolled back to $42K, demonstrating a 0.7% correction. Growth without solid reasons? Bitcoin tested 19-day highs above $43,000 supported by stock indexes with Chinese equities predominantly pulling it. BTC rose sharply during the Asian session, adding about $2,000 in a few hours, although a corrective mood then prevailed. Bitcoin clearly doesn't have a reason for a solid establishment on the path of growth yet. Ethereum is losing 1% over 24 hours, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics yesterday: from a decline of 2.7% (Avalanche) to a rise of 3.8% (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.5%, to $1.91 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1% to 41.9%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another 5 points to 31, although it remains in a "fear" state. BTC is ready for sharp swing At the moment, on-chain metrics are consistent with a bear market, Glassnode notes. The rise in implied volatility and higher leverage in the derivatives market point to the possibility of a sharp swing in bitcoin. However, the sell-off in "defensive" developed-country government bonds continues in financial markets as investors park their money in stocks and commodities that provide the best hedge against prolonged and high inflation. At the same time, there are no clear signs of an economic and financial catastrophe that could hurt stocks or commodities. The world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates plans to invest in one of the third-party crypto funds, pointing to the risks for fiat currencies, which lose sharply during periods of military and economic wars.
Bank of Japan will not keep the yen from falling

Bank of Japan will not keep the yen from falling

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 14:53
The Japanese yen has fallen for the third week in a row, and the amplitude of this decline has become rather scary on Tuesday. It seems yen traders' stop-lines have been blown as the markets have become increasingly aware of the monetary authorities' reaction to inflation and the outlook for the balance of payments. In addition, over the past three weeks, we have seen a careful return of investors to risky assets, which is causing the yen to sell-off.USDJPY is trading above 120.70, which was last seen six years ago, having gained more than 5% since March 7th, while GBPJPY has soared 6% and EURJPY is up 7%. Against the yen are new comments from the Bank of Japan, which shows no sign of a change in its monetary policy, while central banks in other parts of the world issue increasingly hawkish statements.The pressure on the yen is exacerbated by its dependence on oil and metal imports, which widens the trade deficit of the historically export-oriented country. The value of exports in February 2022 was 18% higher than in 2020, while imports soared by 49%. Booming prices for energy, metals, and agricultural products set Japan up for a further plunge into trade deficits.In former years, sustained surpluses helped the yen maintain its strength or even strengthen during periods of market turbulence, ignoring anaemic economic growth and rising government debt to GDP levels.The resulting crisis in commodity prices will force central banks to unambiguously choose their policy towards government bonds on the balance sheet and the general level of government debt. While the USA and Europe are tightening their rhetoric on interest rates, Japan is deliberately lagging. At the same time, the government maintains an apparent calm, pointing out that there are both disadvantages and advantages of a weak exchange rate. The yen problem is not bothering the authorities right now.We should wait and see if investor confidence in the Japanese currency is undermined. Losing control of the exchange rate would risk an escalation of selling into Japanese government debt more than 250% of GDP. The only realistic soft solution is to deflate the national debt by accelerating inflation, but only if the central bank remains a big buyer to prevent an appreciation of the national debt. Such a policy would lead to sustained pressure on the yen.
EM currencies: growing polarisation

EM currencies: growing polarisation

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 13:04
Since the start of the year, the performance of emerging market currencies mirrors what we saw in 2021, but with more polarisation. The Brazilian real has been the growth leader against the dollar since the start of the year, gaining around 13%. It is followed by the South African rand and Colombian peso, gaining just over 7%. Among the hardest hit is the Russian Rouble (-33%), but also the Egyptian Pound (-14%) and the Turkish Lira (-10%). In our view, this polarisation only promises to increase in the coming months.Commodity-exporting countries have benefited amid a global jump in energy and agricultural commodity prices. Brazil gets a chance to seriously boost its oil sales to the US amid a supply embargo from Russia. Though net oil exporters, the states must buy significant amounts of heavy crude to run their refineries. Until 2019, oil from Venezuela was used for the right blend, subsequently replaced by Russian crude. Now it is being replaced by oil from Brazil, which promises a significant increase in exports and supports the exchange rate of the Brazilian real.The South African rand is in demand, receiving dividends from last year's monetary tightening and a surge in metal prices since the start of the year. As most global markets look for alternatives to the Russian metal, the ZAR is enjoying demand from speculators in anticipation of increased exports from South Africa for political reasons.We may well be seeing a global reversal in the attitude towards commodity exporters' currencies, as even in the event of a military settlement, there is no expectation of a quick recovery of previous economic ties.At the other end of the spectrum are countries' currencies that depend on imports of oil and agricultural products. Egypt buys most of its wheat consumption from Russia and Ukraine, and rising prices severely damage the balance of payments. Egypt's central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy to suppress inflation. But such steps tend to hurt economic growth. Turkey imported almost all its gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and bought its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Price jumps and supply-chain disruptions will be costly for the economy and cause increased pressure on the Turkish lira.In addition to the prospect of inflated import volumes, Turkey and Egypt face a severe drop in revenues from the tourism industry, as Russia and Ukraine have provided a significant flow of tourists.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

On Monday (BTC) Bitcoin Price Reached The Level Of Ca. $41k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 08:43
BTC changed a little on Monday, ending the day around $41.3K. However, in early trading on Tuesday, we saw a jump of more than 5% to $43.3K; then the first cryptocurrency sunk to $42K. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 4%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten are not far behind: Solana and Avalanche are up 2%, Cardano is up 6%. Terra is out of the general outline, decreasing by 0.5%. According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 3% over the day, to $1.92 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.1 percentage points to 42% due to the BTC surge. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell by 4 points in a day, to 26, as its estimates do not include the latest bitcoin spurt. This is not the first such jump in BTC since the beginning of March, in contrast to the neutral or even negative sentiment in the stock markets. All this indicates the readiness of the bulls for decisive action. However, until now, such impulses cannot be on a solid basis, because the fundamental demand for risks is under obvious pressure. The most that the bulls were capable of in this case was the formation of support at the lows of July last year (ie below $30K). In January, the level moved to $35K and further to $37K at the end of February. According to the FxPro analysts, institutional investors withdrew about $47 million from crypto funds over the past week. The outflow of funds has been observed for the second week in a row. Meanwhile, the largest Australian financial conglomerate Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated a sharp increase in interest in crypto assets among clients. The bank intends to double the department responsible for the crypto industry. Among the big news, it is worth noting the number of burned ETH tokens in the Ethereum network, which exceeded 2 million. The process of burning altcoins began on August 5 after the release of the London update, which changed the mechanism for calculating commissions for transactions. Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak called for the legalization of cryptocurrency mining, recognizing it as a taxable business. A number of observers believe that this could be a way for Russia to capitalize on its energy potential in the face of reduced demand for Russian oil and gas.
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S&P500 tests latest rally

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 16:17
Having added more than 8.2% to Tuesday's lows last week through Friday, S&P500 futures have surpassed the 50-day moving average and are testing the 200-day average by the start of US trading. We mentioned last week that the "death cross" should not be taken as a sell signal this time because it took place after a comparatively long decline. It was a repeat of 2020 when the cross appeared after the market bottomed. The recovery rally of the last week is undergoing an important test. If the S&P500 manages to get above 4500 today or tomorrow, firmly entrenched above the 200-day moving average (currently at 4480), we can confidently talk about breaking the correction. In that case, there is a potential for a quick rally towards 4600 already this week, 4800 over the next 2-3 months, and up to 5000 by the end of 2022. Looking only at the news headlines, the military action in Europe and the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed are not conducive to buyers' optimism. But, paradoxically, we are now in a situation where pessimism has reached or is close to its peak. Managers surveyed by Bank of America note the maximum pessimism since April 2020, which is near historical turning points. The only exception to the last 25 years was in 2007-2008 when pessimistic expectations persisted for an extended period due to banking sector problems. The Fear & Greed Index continues to improve from 16 (extreme fear) a week ago to 40 (fear) now. It has turned solidly around from the extreme lows, but equities are still an impressive distance from the highs at the beginning of the year, which leaves considerable room for growth from current levels. A strong sell-off in US equities from current levels and a consolidation below 4400 on the S&P500 could be a strong bearish signal, indicating an inability for the market to develop the offensive, which risks putting it back into a rapid decline situation.
Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 12:14
Gold has remained in a one-and-a-half per cent range since last Thursday. The correction from a peak of $2070 to values below $1900 caused a brief aftershock, but it was not sustained. Gold has now stabilised above the peaks of May and June last year and is currently searching for further meaningful momentum. For short-term traders, gold has taken a back seat as markets try to assess the impact of disrupted supply chains and the amount of supply shortfall in raw materials and food. At the same time, medium-term traders should not lose sight of the fact that the current situation will not allow central banks to act adequately. As a result, the supply of fiat money will increase faster than the supply of commodities. In other words, we should expect greater tolerance for higher inflation from the CBs. In addition, governments should also be expected to provide financial support to the economy. In practice, that means more money supply and a higher level of public debt to GDP. And that is another disincentive for monetary policy, which is negative for the currency. It is also favourable for gold, which is used as protection against capital depreciation. Oil is gradually becoming the opposite of gold. After bouncing back to the trend support level of the last four months, Brent got back above $100 reasonably quickly and is adding 4% on Monday, trading at $109. Speculative demand for oil is picking up again amid discussions of a Russian energy divestment, which could be the agenda for the EU leaders and Biden meeting later this week. In addition, the US oil supply has been slow to rise, with data on Friday showing that the number of working oil drilling rigs declined a week earlier. Oil producers appear to be cautious about demand prospects with record fuel prices and are in no hurry to flood the market. This will fuel prices in the short term but is becoming an increasing drag on the economy in the medium term. Locally, we also risk suggesting that Europe will once again make it clear that it cannot substitute Russian energy, preferring to focus on sanctions against other sectors. And that could prove to be a dampening factor for oil later in the week. Oil prices above 110 still look unsustainably high, and a range with support at $85 looks more adequate for the coming months.
Can Bitcoin (BTC) Become An Alternative To... Gold? BTC Increased By 6.3% And Reached Ca. $41.3k

Can Bitcoin (BTC) Become An Alternative To... Gold? BTC Increased By 6.3% And Reached Ca. $41.3k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 09:33
Bitcoin gained 6.3% over the past week, finishing near $41.3K. The price retreated slightly to $41.0K on Monday morning, losing 2.1% over the last 24 hours. Ethereum has corrected by 2% over the same period but still added 11.6% to the price seven days ago. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 have gained between 7.3% (Polkadot) and 24.8% (Avalanche) over the past week. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 7.5% for the week to $1.86 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.6 points to 41.9% due to outperforming altcoins. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 7 points for the week to 30 and moved into "fear" from "extreme fear". Last week turned out to be a good one for the crypto market, with bitcoin rising the most in six weeks. Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve meeting weakened the dollar and boosted stocks, which benefited all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, bitcoin has continued to trade in a sideways range of $38-45K for the second month, with a closer look marked by a sequence of declining local highs with bullish momentum fading near 42 in the last two weeks. The positive sentiment is supported by the 50-day moving average reversing upwards. BTCUSD broke it in a relatively strong move on March 16th, and it has been acting as local support ever since. The external environment in the financial markets remains mixed. Traders have tighter financial conditions due to higher rates and waning economic growth on one side of the scale. On the other side is the demand for purchasing power insurance for capital due to the highest inflation in two generations. Weighing these factors, Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz said bitcoin would continue to trade in a sideways range this year. He said BTC will resume growth and reach $500K by 2025 as inflation curbing measures are too weak. Piyush Gupta, chief executive of Singapore's largest bank, DBS, said cryptocurrencies could be an alternative to gold but would not be able to fit into the traditional financial system due to excessive volatility.
Sanctions On Russia Can Help MXNUSD As Mexican Crude Oil Might Be Imported By The USA

Sanctions On Russia Can Help MXNUSD As Mexican Crude Oil Might Be Imported By The USA

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 15:55
The Mexican dollar has added more than 4% over the last nine days against the US dollar. The upward momentum in this rally is followed by a brief correction but without any noticeable pullback. At first glance, this rally does not seem logical, as oil is cheap for most of this time, hurting oil-exporting Mexico. Nevertheless, in the short term, the MXN has been steadily gaining the following signs of a recovery in demand for risky assets in global markets. Mexico, like the US, finds itself far away from the military conflict in eastern Europe, so the impact on its economy will be much more indirect. Moreover, in the medium term, Mexico will also benefit from the US' rejection of oil from Russia. The states need heavier oil than their own WTI. The cocktail needed for refineries used to be made from Venezuelan oil, which was then replaced by Russian crude. Now the replacements will be Canadian and Mexican, which should benefit production levels and support MXN's strength through higher export revenues. In the coming days, the USDMXN will head for another test of 20.0. Below this level, the pair could not sustainably consolidate in 2021. If this situation proves sustainable, the Bank of Mexico will have more room to fight inflation through policy tightening without fear of strangling the economy too much. If so, the USDMXN may only be in the middle of its strengthening against the dollar, which could last for several quarters.
(SPX) S&P 500 Reaches $4400 Level - Stock Markets Supported By Several Factors

(SPX) S&P 500 Reaches $4400 Level - Stock Markets Supported By Several Factors

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 11:05
The global equity market also continues to thaw after a pronounced decline since the start of the year. Initial reports of progress on the peace talks were later supported by indications that the US and China are looking to reduce friction between them and avoid new threats against each other. In addition, reassurances from the world’s major central banks over the past week sounded very encouraging. As a result, the Fear and Greed Index has moved out of the extreme fear territory, having bottomed out last week at levels last seen in March 2020. A return to territory above 20 for the index would typically mean a reversal to growth. One should note the increasing divergence between the S&P500 price and the Relative Strength Index, where since late January, S&P500’s lower lows has been marked by RSI’s higher low. The S&P500 has bounced back from its lows by almost 6% and is now testing the 50-day moving average. A consolidation above 4400 would signal the start of a broader, more powerful rally. Now it looks like the bravest already bought when there was “blood on the streets”; now, it is time for a broader range of buyers to step in. Gold and oil prices remain indicators of the military stand-off between Russia and Ukraine. Signs that progress in talks has stalled have put prices of these assets back on an upward trajectory. Brent crude oil was trading more than 11% above levels at the end of trading on March 16 at the start of the day on Friday. A glance at the chart suggests that technically quotations remain within the uptrend that began back in December. This is in line with the supposed progress in de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. In our view, it is already worth noting that fears over energy supplies are no longer panic-driven but more constructive, lengthening the forecast horizon.
Uncertain Rebound and Inflation Data: How Likely Is Bitcoin To Fall Again?

Bitcoin Price Prediction - $500k Level In A Few Years Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 09:00
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. Should we believe in that? No sharp movements According to the Santiment team, Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year in recent days. Therefore, one should not expect sharp movements in the market soon. In confirmation of this, Bitcoin is down only 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $40.7K. Ethereum has added 1.5% over the same time, other leading altcoins from the top ten are changing from -2.0% (Terra) to 5% (Avalanche). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.3% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index decreased by 0.4% to 42.4% due to the better dynamics of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 2 points to 25 in a day and again found itself in a state of "extreme fear". In searching of the bottom Despite the outstripping dynamics of altcoins, a sequence of lower and lower local highs continues to form in Bitcoin. In early February, the upside lost momentum as it moved above $45.5K. In the first days of March, the bears already dominated on the way to $45K, on the 8th already near $42.5K, and in the last two days they are trying to form a downward reversal at $41.5K. At the same time, the bulls manage to form a strong support near $38K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that in terms of technical analysis, BTCUSD remains close to its 50-day moving average, clearly indicating the absence of any trend now. However, a consolidation in a descending triangle is usually a respite before the next decline. We will see the implementation of this scenario if BTCUSD fixes under $38K. An alternative scenario and a new upside momentum should be expected if the bulls manage to push the price above the previous highs of $42.5K, or close the day/week above $42K. News to consider Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. The State Russian Duma urged to speed up the launch of the cryptoruble in order to better bypass Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks strengthen control over the operations of clients related to cryptocurrencies.
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Crude Oil Price (BRENT/WTI) - Will Current Levels Remain Longer?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 09:57
The price of oil has stabilised at $93 per barrel for WTI and $95 for Brent, after falling by more than a quarter from March 8th. Buyers’ support came on a correction to levels at the beginning of this month, completely cutting off the speculative upside due to events in Europe and fears of a supply stoppage. Due to correction over the past week, the price has returned to the uptrend support line formed in December. The market is pricing as if there was no military conflict in Europe and fears of a total oil shortage due to the embargo on Russian oil. Initially, this uptrend had formed on evidence that the omicron strain wave was not followed by lockdowns, so demand continues to rise gradually. Interestingly, neither a 350% increase in the price per barrel in precisely two years, a 17% fall in commercial reserves over one year, nor the need to compensate for oil from Russia contributes to US production growth. US average daily production has held steady at 11.6m b/d for the last six weeks, which is close to the average over the previous six months. The observed increase in drilling activity only helps cover the drop in production from depleted fields. However, businesses in the USA remain reluctant to invest in production increases. This is probably due to the ongoing tough ESG agenda, which is holding back investment in an industry that was producing over 13 million BPD in early 2020. Without the coronavirus, it would have reached 14 million BPD by the end of that year. On the other hand, the US and global economies are experiencing an evident shock to energy prices, causing economic growth to slow and oil demand to fall. This situation sets the oil price in the coming days or weeks to find a balance in the $85-100 range. The lower bound is a multi-year turning point for the price in this range, which has now become a meaningful support level. At the same time, the upper bound is a psychologically crucial round level, the capture of which made the oil market wild in early March.
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Non-fungible Token Of Instagram!? Bitcoin (BTC) Trades Quite High

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 08:53
Instagram will implement NFT in a couple of months, Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg said. Despite the loud statement, it should be noted that all of Zuckerberg's projects related to digital assets previously failed and did not find wide support from the digital community. The head of Meta has a good sense of trends of social networks, augmented reality or metaverses, and in the latter two, there are more and more fast-growing projects. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up nearly 4% over the past 24 hours to $41K. Ethereum added 4.7% to $2.75K, while Terra is out of the range, losing 0.6% in 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten add from 3.5% (XRP) to 9.8% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 4% over the day, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.2 points to 42.8%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed added 3 more points in a day, to 27, moving from extreme anxiety to just fear. The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that demand for bitcoin was supported by it rising for the second day in a row. It was helped by the strengthening of stock indices and the weakening of the dollar. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%, but the comments made by market participants seemed softer than expected, which caused the dollar to fall. According to Glassnode, $1.2 billion worth of bitcoin was withdrawn from the Coinbase crypto exchange in just a week. This is the largest net outflow since July 2017, which signals the mood of investors for long-term storage of the asset. Despite the positive dynamics in recent days, Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways range between $37K and $42K for almost the entire month of March, unable to choose a further direction. Since the last days of February, there has been a solid support line on the declines under $38K. And this is bullish strength, reflecting that long-term buyer interest has migrated from $30K to $38K due to inflation and geopolitical tensions. Such a migration of the level of interest to long-term buyers fully reflects the price jump, which is the actual depreciation of the value of fiat currencies.
China Stocks Go Up As There Might Be More Buybacks Coming

Hang Seng Climbs And Adds 6%, China A50 Gains Ca. 6.5%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.03.2022 10:01
Chinese indices are experiencing their sharpest rally yet on Wednesday amid reassurances from officials that the stock market is going to be supported. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 6%, China’s China A50 is gaining more than 6.5%, while China H-shar is soaring by 12%. These indices have been under increased pressure in recent weeks, getting maximum pressure this week.  On Tuesday, major Chinese indices fell fastest since March 2020, rewriting multi-year lows. Market support from officials came a day after the release of upbeat macro data, indicating a jump in retail sales and industrial production. At the same time, stock market dynamics fundamentally diverged from the economy, and there was a near point where stock volatility was already causing material disruption to the economy.  The China H-shar gained support today after sinking to the lows of late 2008, losing more than half of its price in just over a year of steady decline. The Hans Seng index touched lows since 2016 and areas of market support in 2012 at the peak of Tuesday’s decline. However, Chinese policymakers have worked hard to prevent the sell-off from turning into a self-sustaining spiral over the past two days. Yesterday’s China-US talks saw a positive reaction from the sides, forming a more than 4.5% bounce for the HangSeng during the European trading session.  This momentum was boosted on Wednesday morning after Vice Premier Liu He indicated that China is considering a package of measures to support the economy and financial markets. Soon the People’s Bank of China stated that it would help the stock market with other agencies.  Such words send a message to the market that the levels reached yesterday are a pain point for the Chinese authorities, from where they are ready to step up efforts to support the markets. Yesterday we likely saw the bottom of the Chinese indices for many months to come, despite potentially negative for stock prices rate hikes by the Fed and other major central banks for the equity market. There seems to be too much pessimism and wariness embedded in Chinese valuations after more than a year of declines.
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Crypto Prices: Bitcoin (BTC) Gained 1.4%, ETH Increased By 3.1%, Polkadot (DOT) Went Up By 4.5% And Terra Decreased (-6%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.03.2022 08:30
BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.
Buying Gold: ugly short-term deal, promising for long-term

Buying Gold: ugly short-term deal, promising for long-term

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 11:09
Gold is losing another 1% on Tuesday, pulling back to $1933. Exactly one week ago, quotes were soaring towards $2070, but they have been in a steady downward trend since then. The short-term charts clearly show the even pressure crystallising since March 10th. It may seem illogical that the gold price is down, pending reliable signs of military de-escalation. Rampant inflation should also contribute to the demand for Gold as protection against capital depreciation. The answer to this question seems to be sought in the altered gold supply balance. Likely, the Bank of Russia is now actively selling Gold from its reserves, both domestically and using the remaining means to do so abroad. In the short term, this creates an impressive market overhang, despite data confirming that exchange-traded funds have built up their holdings in the metal to a record. If the current trend develops, the price of Gold could deflate into the $1850-1870 area, where it was before Russian troops entered Ukraine. That said, buying Gold remains a prudent long-term strategy. Geopolitical instability forms the risks of a slowdown in the economy, which will deter the Fed and other major central banks from tightening policy. A 25-point rate hike is expected from the Fed this week, although the markets gave more than a 60% chance of a 50-point hike in the first weeks of the year. In the meantime, the current and expected price situation has only worsened, accelerating the actual depreciation of assets. Looking ahead to the next few months, a very supportive environment remains for gold prices up to around $2,500. The marginal forecasts of a new round of gold growth are also becoming more evident, echoing the dynamic of the 1970s, as the energy and food markets are now in a very similar position. If this holds true, the price could soar several times in the next several years.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk To Save His Bitcoins And Other Crypto

Tesla CEO Elon Musk To Save His Bitcoins And Other Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 08:36
Bitcoin slightly strengthened over the past day to 38,800 (+0.5%). Ethereum lost 0.8%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten range showed an amplitude from -2.4% (Avalanche) to +3.7% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.4% in 24 hours, to $1.73 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.3 points to 42.7%. The fear and greed index is at 21 (-2 points) now and is remaining in a state of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that Bitcoin updated its weekly lows around $37,500 today. Subsequently, the first cryptocurrency bounced up, briefly rising above $39,300 in the middle of the day on the news from Elon Musk. The CEO of Tesla said he had no plans to sell his cryptocurrencies. Musk tweeted that he owns not only Bitcoin but also ETH and DOGE. However, BTC did not show a strong reaction to this statement: during the American session, it levelled a slight increase against the backdrop of a fall in US stock indices. Dogecoin reacted to Musk's comment much more violently, jumping more than 7% at the time. According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew about $110 million from crypto funds last week, despite seeing the largest capital inflow in three months the week earlier. The European Union abandoned plans to introduce a virtual ban on mining based on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) mechanism. At the same time, Russian State Duma deputy Alexander Yakubovsky said that Russia has a real opportunity to create its own crypto exchanges.
Fed, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine - There Are Several Factors Which Affect Chinese Stock Markets

Fed, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine - There Are Several Factors Which Affect Chinese Stock Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 11:12
News from Ukraine remains the dominant topic on the financial markets but by no means the only one. Also noteworthy is the increased pressure on Chinese companies, which has intensified since February 17th, almost exactly one month ago. In that time, the Hang Seng has lost more than 20% and in Monday's trading was below 20,000 for the first time in six years. This is an important support area of the last ten years near which the market has previously found support. In all, the drop from the peak in February 2021 represents a fall of more than 40%. The pressure on the Chinese market is due to four factors simultaneously. Firstly, the military crisis in Ukraine is exacerbating logistical problems and causing higher prices for raw materials and agricultural products, which are hitting local companies and households far higher than in developed countries. Secondly, China remains committed to a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19, once again closing multi-million-dollar areas to contain the outbreak. While Europe and the US are smoothly removing restrictions because of the pandemic, they are the toughest in China since 2020. Thirdly, there continues to be a mass exodus of investors due to fears of delisting several Chinese companies from US exchanges. The technology sector of Chinese companies is caught between a hammer and anvil as it previously faced regulatory pressure domestically and now has the biggest investor outflow. Fourth, even in peaceful times and without the regulatory guillotine, capital traditionally flees emerging markets in the early stages of a reversal in monetary policy. The first Fed rate hike since 2018 is expected this week. Higher inflation is shaping expectations that central banks will act more aggressively than previously anticipated, further shaking out weak players from the market. Those investors trying to see signs of a bottom forming in Chinese assets are likely to watch the market's reaction to comments from the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan later this week with heightened scrutiny. If regulators focus solely on fighting inflation, the sell-off promises to intensify. If there is more focus on financial stability risks and already observed tightening of financial conditions, we could see attempts to form a bottom.
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Apple Co-Founder Speaks Of The Future Of Bitcoin Price

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 08:42
Bitcoin has decreased over the past week by 0.9%, ending it at around $38,700. Yesterday, the decline continued, bringing the price to 38500. Ethereum lost 0.7% in 24 hours and added 1.5% in a week. Other leading altcoins from the top ten show mixed dynamics over 24 hours: from a decline of 3.8% (XRP) to a rise of 3.3% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 14% in 24 hours, to $1.72 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.1% to 42.4%. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that the Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 2 points in a day to 23 and remains in "extreme fear" condition. In the first half of the past week, the first cryptocurrency tried to strengthen, testing five-day highs near $42,600. Later, BTC lost all gains, again being thrown back to support near $38,000. Pressure on all risky assets continues to be exerted due to the situation in Ukraine. One of the Apple founders, Steve Wozniak, said that bitcoin would reach $100,000, which will be facilitated by the general interest in cryptocurrency. At the same time, he has a negative attitude towards altcoins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again rejected applications from the NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchanges to create spot bitcoin ETFs due to non-compliance with US exchange law. El Salvador has announced that it will postpone the issuance of bonds in bitcoins in connection with the events in Eastern Europe. The received funds were planned to be used for the construction of the "Bitcoin City". Visiting the UAE, Russians massively sell cryptocurrency for billions of dollars. Earlier, FBI Director Christopher Wray emphasized that the United States has vast experience in tracking cryptocurrencies, and Russia will not be able to use them to circumvent sanctions.  
S&P 500 (SPX) Price - 200-Day And 50-Day Moving Averages Met

S&P 500 (SPX) Price - 200-Day And 50-Day Moving Averages Met

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 14:05
The US S&P500 closed Thursday with a 0.4% drop, but the sustained downward trend since the beginning of the year has formed a “death cross”, a bearish signal of Tech analysis when the 50-day Moving Average crosses down the 200-day one. It is widely considered as a downtrend confirmation, followed by a further and faster market decline. However, this time the situation might be more optimistic, and there are several other indications, both from technical analysis and the news background. The history of the past ten years makes us wary of any signal that follows from a crossover of these averages. The “death cross” was most clearly triggered in August 2015 and December 2018, when this signal was followed by 12% and 16% drawdowns in the index in the following couple of weeks. The difference between those episodes and the current one is that back then, the market was stalling for a long time, with no strength for growth. This crossover has now taken place after a three-month correction. This trend brings the situation closer to 2020 when the market collapsed on the pandemic - the “black swan”. The war between Russia and Ukraine is the same black swan that accelerated and intensified the correction. In March 2020, and again almost two years later, the “cross” came after an impulsive decline and away from local lows. On the daily timeframes, another indicator, the Relative Strength Index, shows a waning of the downward momentum, as the new lows of the S&P500 index met the RSI at higher local lows. The broad market index found solid support at 76.4% Fibonacci in March from the rally from the pandemic bottom to the peaks of January. There are some fundamentally positive developments for the market. President Putin of Russia rather unexpectedly noted progress in the negotiations with Ukraine, while outside observers the day before stated the opposite. Also, Fed rhetoric has become much softer over the last month, and US lawmakers are more likely to agree on stimulus packages, supporting the demand for risky assets.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 08:37
Bitcoin fell 5.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.6K, and further to $38.9K on Friday morning, down 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the same time (-0.3%), while other leading altcoins from the first are changing in different directions, from a 1.6% increase (XRP) to a 1% decrease (BNB). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.2% over the day to $1.74 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index continues to decline, falling from 42.7% yesterday to 42.4% due to the greater stability of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 6 points in a day to 22, again entering the territory of "extreme fear". Bitcoin fully returned the growth of Wednesday, which was caused by the adoption in the United States of the first document on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. The decline in stock indices and the growth of the dollar also did not favour the purchases of the first cryptocurrency, which often moves in unison with the general demand for risks. The first decree on cryptocurrencies signed the day before can become the basis for future US legislation on regulating relations in the crypto sphere. Against this background, the shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies have noticeably risen in price. One of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is going to expand its offering for trading digital assets. The bank is exploring the possibility of launching bilateral crypto-currency options. World-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki has warned that the world economy is now on the verge of hyperinflation and advised to "stay away" from the stock market. Against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the financial system of the Russian Federation and restrictions imposed on the circulation of the dollar and the euro, the demand of the population for cryptocurrency has increased sharply. Now it is primarily used for the transfer of capital abroad or for parking in "hard" currency. Analysts believe that regulators are unlikely to be able to effectively prevent such transactions. But the state is helped by crypto-exchanges, which block the Russians on their own initiative. There remain the possibilities of p2p platforms, that is, transfers between individuals. However, there are significant risks of fraud associated with such transactions.
How the latest CPI affected Bitcoin

How the latest CPI affected Bitcoin

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 15:19
Consumer prices in the USA rose by 0.8% in February as expected. Inflation for the same month a year earlier was 7.9% compared to 7.5% a month earlier and in line with average forecasts.Over the last 12 months, the actual data has exceeded the forecast ten times, so the stabilisation seen in February is regarded as cautiously good news. Previously, market participants had assumed that inflation would peak in February, but the latest round of commodity prices makes these forecasts overly optimistic. In peacetime, markets would have priced in more decisive monetary policy tightening moves by the Fed. However, investors have recently discounted expectations of a rate hike by 50 points, contrary to a jump in commodity prices. The markets assume that the Fed will be much more cautious in tightening policy. This thesis is doubly true against the background of falling government bond yields and widening spreads between them and high-yield bonds.When the Fed has limited capacity to respond to inflation, this is bad news for the dollar because it undermines its long-term prospects for maintaining purchasing power. In this regard, the impulsive pressure on the US currency immediately after the release should not be surprising.Long term, this is also good news for bitcoin, which is not subject to inflation. However, the short-term reaction could well be mixed, as fears of a new stock market decline are also added to this cocktail, as stocks "don't like" accelerating inflation.
Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 09:54
Brent crude experienced its biggest intraday decline yesterday, losing more than $17 on the day to $110, with the range of movements on the spot market exceeding $26.The momentum of the decline was triggered by Blinken's (US Secretary of State) reports that the UAE was ready to ramp up its production, replacing Oil from Russia and stabilising the market. UAE officials soon said they remained committed to the current agreements. But this did not help Oil, which stabilised near levels a week ago. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have significant spare capacity to restore their production to pre-demand levels and even increase their global market share. At the same time, most OPEC representatives are not fully committed to their quotas. Iran and Venezuela have more options. Both countries are trying to use the situation to ease US sanctions pressure. Iran produces 2.3 million barrels per day, about half of pre-sanctions levels. Venezuela's production is around 0.8m BPD versus 3.1m BPD before the 2019 sanctions. Both countries can get 0.4m b/d back on the market quickly, but it will take a significant investment in the industry and a long time to grow after that. Caracas is already curtseying towards the US by releasing two prisoners. The US is lifting some sanctions on some Iranian politicians even before the deal is struck. These are signs of progress towards easing sanctions and a clear signal to Russia that the world is not so dependent on its energy. These are all signs favouring our idea that the peak of fear, and therefore oil prices, is over. Furthermore, Russia has not yet even gone so far as to threaten to halt exports as OPEC did in 1972. That said, military tensions and further restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports could trigger growth impulses, some of which could be strong. However, the oil price situation looks depleted. We are set to see either a consolidation around these levels in a pessimistic war scenario, or a correction to around $90 on progress in the peace talks and the start of a move to ease sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33
Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.    
Crude Oil may have played its game

Crude Oil may have played its game

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:33
A barrel of Oil on the spot market briefly topped $130 for Brent and $125 for WTI, having retreated to $127 and $121, respectively, by the start of European trading. Oil received its latest boost on expectations that the US will announce an embargo on Russian energy imports. Traders took short-term profits on Biden's speech, which kept Oil from rising further. On the sellers' side was also news that the UK was unable to repeat the US move and is instead set to halt energy imports from Russia before the end of the year. Biden also noted that many European countries would not be able to stop buying Russian Oil and Gas any time soon because of their heavy reliance on them.The latest comments have somewhat dampened pressure on the Oil price, as have earlier International Energy Agency calculations on ways to reduce Europe's energy consumption from Russia by up to 80% as early as this year. Such plans often over-idealise the possibility of a coordinated effort, but their mere appearance has a stabilising effect on the market. For its part, Russia has also worked to prove its role as a reliable energy supplier, loading Crude Oil at ports in line with the schedule.Nevertheless, markets continue to face an increased risk premium, and Russian Oil struggles to find new buyers. The UAE and Saudi Arabia try to use the situation to their advantage, refusing to cooperate with the US to increase oil supplies. Iran is haggling for more favourable terms on the nuclear deal. Russia, the architect of the deal, has suddenly become an obstacle to it, demanding legal guarantees from the US that sanctions will not affect Russian-Iranian trade, thereby trying to thwart the US attempts to increase oil supply in countries where US sanctions limit production.We would venture to guess that all existing conditions are already built into the Oil quotes, and its price is now near a ceiling for the coming weeks and months. From here, we could see the establishment of a fairly broad corridor of $95-130 per barrel for Brent for the foreseeable future. This is a vast range, reflecting the outlook's persistence of extreme volatility and extreme uncertainty.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 08:43
The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.
Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:18
Brent oil is trading near $125 - in the 2011 and 2012 highs area. The market continues to receive pretty bullish comments from politicians and officials. However, traders seemed set to pause to digest current price levels after a frightening rally to $129 at one point on Monday, reacting to reports that the US and allies are weighing a ban on Russian oil and gas imports. In Russia, Novak (a former energy minister and co-founder of OPEC+ deals) points out that the oil embargo will push prices into the $300 a barrel area. Probably, this forecast is based on a comparison of the current situation with the OPEC embargo in late 1972, when the price soared 3-4 times within a few weeks. The International Energy Agency's executive director said the Oil can still move higher from current levels. Officially, Russia is not refusing to export Oil and Gas, but local companies have recently failed to sell Oil because of a buyers' boycott or fears of being hit by US and EU sanctions. Shell's just-announced refusal to buy all Russian Oil is doing little to bring down the commodity price. With this news backdrop, Oil is getting support on the downside in the $115 area, where last week's highs were located. It will take a lot more political will to reverse the trend in Oil. Also, the chances of Oil from Iran to make up for the drop-offs are somewhat thawed, as the president has said that Tehran will not give up its red lines. Iran would logically be expected to use the situation to bargain for better terms on a deal with the West. The same applies to Venezuela, where US representatives have headed to secure a rise in global production. Will the countries previously most disadvantaged by US sanctions use the momentum to ramp up production? That question is not yet answered. Likely, we should expect price rises to accelerate in the coming days before the situation reverses into a constructive direction and prices head for a correction.
It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:16
While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.
(BTC) Bitcoin Price Chart Shows It Keeps $38k Level

(BTC) Bitcoin Price Chart Shows It Keeps $38k Level

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 08:38
BTC is holding at $38K for the second day in a row, remaining 12% below the levels it reached a week earlier. Ethereum lost 1.3% over the past day, other leading altcoins from the top ten are moving in the range between +1% (BNB) to -4% (XRP). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.2% over the day, to $1.71 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.1% to 42.4%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index lost 2 points to 21 in a day and remains in a state of “extreme fear”. Bitcoin has started this week with a drawdown along with a decline in all risky assets on reports of intensified hostilities in Ukraine. In the middle of the day, BTC managed to turn against the tide, winning back the initial failure, despite the decline in stock indices. FxPro’s analyst team mentioned that over the weekend, the US discussed the possibility of a ban on Russian oil imports, which could lead to a jump in energy prices and slow economic growth. Big players are piling up USDT during the decline of bitcoin in order to probably buy the first cryptocurrency at a lower price, according to Santiment. Including, according to Whale Alert, a wallet with 407 BTC “woke up”, which has not been active since 2013. It may well expect big deals from him in the near future. One of the founders of Apple, Steve Wozniak, said that most crypto assets are robbery and fraud. However, he has always admired bitcoin and called it in 2020 a “unique mathematical marvel”, but specified that he wasn't planning to invest in BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 08:28
The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.
S&P 500 (SPX) Increased By 7.1%, FTSE 100 (UK 100) Went Up As Well

S&P 500 (SPX) Increased By 7.1%, FTSE 100 (UK 100) Went Up As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 10:15
  Why the S&P500 is rising now Events in Ukraine at the end of last month provoked chaos in the stock markets of all regions. However, the S&P500 and FTSE100 indexes already managed to find the support of buyers on the first day of hostilities. Since then, these indices have formed an upward trend. The S&P 500 is testing the 4400 mark, above which it last traded solidly before Feb 17th. At the same time, futures are now 7.1% higher than the minimum point at which they were a week earlier.  The FTSE100 is not gaining as much and is now up 3.4% from last week's lows. In both cases, we see an upward movement, albeit shaky. It is explained by the market's less dependence on the state of affairs in Eastern Europe since the companies represented in the S&P500 are significantly diversified and removed from the epicentre of events. In contrast, the European Euro50 on the 1st of March fell to lows for almost a year.  A similar pattern was observed for the German DAX. The charts of both indices have been dominated by sellers since the beginning of the year, and this trend has intensified sharply in the last two weeks.  The DAX and EURO50 have about 7% more downside potential in the next few days before finding support. In our opinion, central banks may now be on the side of buyers in Western Europe and the United States, which are likely to soften plans for tightening monetary policy, despite the rise in commodity prices. Worth mentioning that in times of crisis, the market quickly calculates the winners: both in February-March 2020 and last month, the market decline was general, but very soon the markets diverged in their dynamics.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Crypto: On Thursday Morning Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Terra (LUNA) And AVAX Trades Lower Than At The Same Time The Day Before

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 08:29
Bitcoin slowed down ahead of strong mid-February resistance at $45,000, which then turned the move down. The first cryptocurrency in recent days has not paid too much attention to stock indices, which rose on Wednesday. The technical picture continues to point to a break in the downtrend, although to confirm the reversal, the rate must first fix above 45K. It must be said that bitcoin trading volumes have increased markedly in the last week due to the events in Ukraine. On February 28th, immediately after the Bank of Russia asset freeze, BTC jumped by 11%, showing the highest growth in many months. Due to new sanctions, the Russians withdrew depreciating ruble assets and invested them in cryptocurrencies. In the EU, it was previously discussed that since Bitcoin and Ethereum use the Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism, which consumes a lot of electricity and has a negative impact on the environment, it's time to ban the mining of these cryptocurrencies. However, it was decided to abandon this idea following the new version of the bill on digital assets. Technically, Bitcoin slowed down on Wednesday after two days of active strengthening, and on Thursday morning, it rolled back to 43.1K, losing 2.2% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is down 3.3% 0.6% in the same period. Leading altcoins from the top ten lose from 1% (Terra, XRP) to more than 5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 2.5% to $1.09 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43.1%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell 13 points to 29, once again ending up in the fear zone.
Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 15:44
The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.
Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Getting Rid Of Russian Commodities Affects And Will Affect Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 10:04
Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro.  USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it.  This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry.  The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices.  The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves.  Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Crypto Prices: On Tuesday Bitcoin (BTC) Added 1.9%, Ether (ETH) Gained 2.5%, Solana (SOL) Increased By 6.7%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 08:44
In the middle of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency was approaching $45K, but then fell slightly during the American session along with stock indices. BTC showed resilience despite the decline in other risky assets and the growth of the dollar. World markets were declining following the banking sector, which felt the severity of Russia's partial disconnection from Swift (by 80%). However, this situation does little harm to the demand for cryptocurrencies. On the Binance exchange, the volume of trading in ruble pairs with BTC and USDT has increased significantly. Crypto funds recorded $36 million in net asset inflows during the week, up from $239 million over the past five weeks, according to CoinShares. Institutions are also looking for alternative vehicles amid mounting military tensions and government capital controls. According to Glassnode, crypto whales have been aggressively buying bitcoin over the past few weeks, which could signal a local bottom has been reached. The last time such a situation was observed was in May last year, when, after a two-month consolidation, the market resumed growth at the end of July. Technically, Bitcoin started March with growth. Thus, BTC has risen in price by 1.9% over the day to $44,100. Ethereum has grown by 2.5%, approaching $3,000. Other leading altcoins from the top ten add with maximum momentum such as Solana (+6.7%) and Terra (+5.2%) The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 2% over the day, to $1.94 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another point to 52 moving into neutral territory.
What to do with your free capital in Russia

What to do with your free capital in Russia

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 13:30
The main question that ruble traders ask themselves is whether the Central Bank managed to prevent a collapse in the exchange rate? At the moment, the euro is officially worth 104.4, and the dollar is 93.5.According to a leading analyst at FxPro, the ruble is recovering from the second shock wave that hit on Monday, when the Central Bank was unable to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. The dollar and the euro declined somewhat, but these levels still can hardly be called sustainable. An increase in the interest rate has a relatively long-term effect, while a liquidity crisis affects quotes "here and now".A steady reversal to growth in the Russian currency should be expected no earlier than when we receive reliable signals from the EU and the US. Until then, downward impulses may alternate with relatively short pullback periods. In our opinion, some stabilization of the exchange rate may occur in the range of 100-110 since this is a low enough level for traders to start picking up the ruble in the short term. Of course, this is only if we exclude the scenario of further tightening of sanctions.There is another issue that worries the consumers who are now in Russia. We are talking, among other things, about foreign citizens who came to Russia to do business or for personal reasons. Many of them have free balances in the region of 100 thousand rubbles in their bank accounts. As a rule, businesspeople short-term invest capital or acquire their own currency. The question arises of what to do with this capital now.In our opinion, it is better to save free money for force majeure, since in the current circumstances, it is worth increasing the capital and abandoning all unplanned purchases. If you are in Russia, then it is better to keep your savings in rubbles since it is not profitable to buy currency in banks now, as the exchange rate difference is too large.Of course, in the coming weeks and months, equipment, and all imported goods in the territory of the Russian Federation will rise in price significantly. At the same time, the value of cash soon may manifest itself more than ever. This is confirmed by queues at ATMs and multiple increases in cash in the hands of Russians.Many right now are looking towards buying a new car from a showroom with the prospect of selling it in a few months at a higher price (considering the sanctions).If your capital is even larger, it perhaps remains only to wait since the withdrawal to foreign accounts is limited. Thus, Russian residents will not be able to credit foreign currency to their accounts and deposits in foreign banks and brokers. The ban takes effect today.
Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 08:31
Bitcoin made a powerful leap up after assurances from the owners of the largest crypto exchanges, Binance, Kraken, KuCoin and AAX, that they do not intend to block the funds of individual Russians. However, the head of Kraken warned that they would abide by the regulator's decision if it comes.Overnight, the United States noted that they would stop attempts to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent personal sanctions. So, retail clients of large crypto exchanges are not yet afraid for their funds. This probably explains the latest growth momentum.Technically, Bitcoin broke through the upper limit of the four-month descending channel at the close of the month. Moderate optimism of Asian and US indices is also on the side of buyers.February was confirmed to be a growing month for bitcoin. However, March is not so favourable. Over the past 11 years, BTC ended this month with growth only in two cases.Disabling Russia from SWIFT will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, says Jiang Zhuer, CEO of the BTC.TOP pool. In his opinion, Russia can use various methods to circumvent restrictions, including digital assets, to make payments. Bank of America does not see the prerequisites for a large-scale crypto winter, as evidenced by the dynamics of the movement of cryptocurrencies between private and exchange wallets. The level of acceptance of crypto assets by users is also growing, as well as the activity of developers.Bitcoin jumped 10.8% on Monday to $41,600, the highest gain in five months. On Tuesday morning, the momentum continued with a jump to $44,000 at the start of the day. At the time of writing, prices have stabilized around $43,200. Ethereum added 7.9%, while other top-ten altcoins rose from 6.3% (XRP) to 15.3 % (Terra).The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 11% over the day, to $1.9 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 43% due to the smaller strengthening of altcoins.The crypto-currency fear and greed index soared 31 points to 51 on the day, moving out of fear into neutral territory.Although Bitcoin showed negative dynamics for most of the month, the shock growth at the end of it allowed BTC to end February with strengthening (+8.6%) after three months of decline.
Food prices are breaking multi-year highs, and the CBs are helpless

Food prices are breaking multi-year highs, and the CBs are helpless

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.02.2022 10:40
Wheat futures on the CBOE are up 16% since the start of the week, the biggest rally since the poor harvest in 2012. At one point yesterday, the weekly rise was close to 20%. The price level was the highest since April 2008, as traders anxiously assessed the impact of the conflict between two of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, corn, and other agricultural products. The FAO’s Food Price Index in January was near its 2011 peak (in nominal terms) and one step below its 1974 peak - a time of stagflation and the aftermath of the oil crisis. And the latest spike in grains prices suggests that these highs will already be surpassed in February. It means that people will spend more on food and less on durable goods and services, worsening living standards. Such price hikes are an additional headache for central banks around the world. They may find themselves forced to turn a blind eye to inflation so as not to put the economy and consumer demand under additional stress. But this is terrible news for currencies. Forced inflation tolerance by the Central Bank will depreciate the value of money and suppress the exchange rate. This promises to be a problem for the euro and the British pound. High inflation may no longer be a reason to buy the euro and the pound against the dollar on the forex market, as it would not increase the chances of a tightening of the central bank policy in the coming months. There could also be a reverse reaction when currencies come under pressure as investors sell off local bonds amid falling real yields.
On Thursday: Bitcoin Added 10.7%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 9.6%

On Thursday: Bitcoin Added 10.7%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 9.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.02.2022 10:32
After reaching the lows for the month, the first cryptocurrency received support from buyers, as was the case at the end of January. Of course, the growth dynamics were relatively modest, which indicates the caution of buyers. It is likely that these are long-term holders rather than short-term speculators, as markets generally remain wary. Interestingly, buying during the decline has become a key outline of the American session. After more than a 3% fall, US stock indices not only bounced back but also managed to show growth at the end of the day. This stimulated bitcoin to strengthen. A short-term surge of bullish sentiment could end quickly if risky assets resume their decline again. If the situation in Ukraine escalates even more, bitcoin may fall below $30,000 as investors leave for defensive assets. According to The New York Times, Russia is legalizing cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. Otherwise, the country will not survive the growing sanctions pressure from Western countries. Bitcoin rose over the past day by 10.7% to $38,500, reducing the decline in 7 days to 5%. Ethereum jumped 12% but is still 10% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Other leading altcoins are moving almost in unison, adding about 10% in most cases. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased by 9.6% per day to $1.72 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.3 points to 42.6%, due to a smaller strengthening of altcoins. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market has risen from 23 to 27, into the territory of fear.
USDRUB Went Up To A Really High Level. Will USD To RUB It Reach $90?

USDRUB Went Up To A Really High Level. Will USD To RUB It Reach $90?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.02.2022 08:57
The end of trading on Wednesday indicated growing concern as the ruble went into a sharp dive and the early start of trading marked increased sales. We saw 95.2425 for the euro and 84.075 for the dollar. After that, trading was halted as stock prices hit the lower limits set by the exchange, and there were no buyers in the stock order books - only sellers. The Moscow Exchange has suspended trading on all markets, including the currency and stock sections. SPB Exchange has suspended trading from 08:10 Moscow time for all types of securities and all trading modes. The ruble in indicative trading lost more than 10% against the dollar and the euro, the rate of which exceeds 90 and 101 rubles, respectively. Practically all financial instruments traded at the morning session are resting on the lower bars set by the exchange. Everything happened after the special operation announced by President Putin in the Donbass and reports of the shelling of military airports throughout Ukraine. The Bank of Russia announced the start of interventions in the foreign exchange market in order to slightly restrain the panicky unilateral fall of the ruble, which at the moment allowed the exchange rate to retreat from extremes. However, in such situations, it is pointless to wait for a reversal. The actions of central banks always only soften the blow but do not reverse the market. Despite the interventions and suspension of trading, extreme pressure on the Russian market promises to persist in the coming days. This is truly a new reality that we have not seen throughout our lives. The situation with Ukraine is developing according to the most dramatic scenario and will inevitably entail the most severe consequences that Russia has threatened in recent days. It is difficult to talk about some levels where the Russian currency or the market as a whole can stabilize. Recent events have pushed the ruble into uncharted territory. The latest quotes of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange show a price of 84 per dollar, and in indicative trading, it is already reaching 90. It looks like the ruble will slide very quickly down to 110 per dollar in the coming days and weeks. And near these levels, it will be necessary to look at the situation. In general, the fall of the ruble promises to carry on in the near future, while the shelling continues and the most severe sanctions are imposed on Russia. Hopes for stabilization now we can get only from politicians. The Ukrainian hryvnia, like the ruble, is trading below the levels from which it has repeatedly turned to growth since 2014. Here, too, the market has crossed the line of the conventional norm of the last eight years. From the current levels near 30 hryvnias per dollar, the outcome of this fall should be looked for, perhaps, at about 40.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Cryptocurrency Update: Will Bitcoin (BTC) Become A Legal Means Of Payment In Mexico?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.02.2022 08:57
Bitcoin was down 1% on Wednesday, ending the day near $37,600, but it is losing another 7% on Thursday morning, trading below $35,000. Ethereum has lost 12% to $2,340 in the last 24 hours. Leading altcoins show a proportionate decline. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 8.4% over the day, to $1.57 trillion. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market fell by 2 points to 23, but being updated once a day, it clearly does not take into account the latest dramatic movements. The aggravation of tension around Ukraine exerted pressure on risky assets. There are growing risks of escalation associated with the introduction of Russian troops into Donbass. In such a situation, risky assets may continue to decline further. At the moment, we see that cryptocurrencies are selling stronger than developed world stocks (although not as extreme as Russian ones), confirming the risky nature of these assets and how they are not a replacement for gold. According to Glassnode, the wallets of long-term investors (hodlers) hold record volumes of BTC (76.5%). The volume of bitcoins, which have been without movement for more than 10 years, is also growing (12.6%). Thus, almost 90% of all currently available coins are out of the market. Now another country besides El Salvador may accept bitcoin as a means of payment. Senator Indira Kempis is developing a bill on cryptocurrencies and intends to convince the Mexican government to follow the "Salvadorian scenario" by recognizing BTC as a means of payment. Former SEC official Joseph Hall called the department's chances of losing the lawsuit against Ripple high. The regulator accuses the company of selling unregistered securities under the guise of XRP tokens.
NZDUSD: Kiwi bird learns to fly

NZDUSD: Kiwi bird learns to fly

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.02.2022 15:09
The New Zealand dollar has been adding around 1% since the start of the day following the third key rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% and comments from the RBNZ on the need for further policy tightening.Wednesday also saw the announcement of the start of a balance sheet reduction, including via active selling.The central bank points to employment above the maximum sustained level and the overall economic performance above its potential, all with elevated inflation.The RBNZ also says further tightening is needed, pointing to upside risks to inflation.NZDUSD is testing 0.6800, as it did just over a month ago. The Kiwi came under pressure in the previous month due to a general risk bias in global markets. However, the paths of the NZDUSD and international markets diverged in February. The steady demand of the New Zealand currency, which gained nearly 4% from the lows of late January, contrasts with the S&P500, which lost its rising momentum about a fortnight ago and is again near the lows of the year.The main reason for that divergence is monetary policy - current and expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the momentum of tightening for the third time in the last six months and promises further rises later in the year.New Zealand has also found itself far removed from the worst geopolitical tensions in Europe of recent decades, continuing to benefit from record-breaking commodity prices.In this environment, it would not be surprising to see the NZDUSD rise as far as 0.7000 by the end of next month, in a break from last year's downward trend. Although, it would be too naive to expect an easy up ride for the Aussie, as the US Fed is also signalling a very hawkish stance.
Terra (LUNA) Price Went Up And The Most Popular Crypto Increased By 3.6% On Tuesday

Terra (LUNA) Price Went Up And The Most Popular Crypto Increased By 3.6% On Tuesday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.02.2022 08:35
The rebound of bitcoin began along with the growth of European stock indices at the beginning of the day. They corrected up after three days of decline on the crisis around Ukraine. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with which BTC has been highly correlated lately, also showed gains on Tuesday. So far, the rebound of risky assets, which includes cryptocurrencies, can be considered as a movement within a downtrend. Bitcoin has been trying to correct from levels close to the lows of February, but this is probably not the bottom yet. Expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on all risky assets. Despite the rather low levels of the Cryptocurrency Fear Index, the history of the indicator suggests that the best moments to enter were periods of falling into the 10 area. Meanwhile, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest Mexican billionaires, called for not selling bitcoin during the fall. In his opinion, BTC will rise in the long term. Overall, Bitcoin is up 3.6% over the past day to 38,100, closing Tuesday higher after five days of decline. Ethereum gained 6.1% over the same time period, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from 4% growth in XRP to 13% in Terra. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the day to $1.79 trillion. Altcoins grew worse than the first cryptocurrency, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 40.3%. The index of fear and greed turned back again, losing 5 points to 25 and remaining in a state of "extreme fear".
The Crypto Market Leader Leaved $40k And Trades Ca. $4-5k Lower

The Crypto Market Leader Leaved $40k And Trades Ca. $4-5k Lower

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.02.2022 10:28
Losing for the sixth day in a row, bitcoin is approaching a retest of the intermediate round level of 35,000, near which buyers became more active at the end of last month. A further decline could open a direct road to the 30,000 area, where the coin was bought back twice in 2021. Given the changed macroeconomic conditions and the pressure on risky assets, will the crypto remain as interesting at these same levels? Cryptocurrencies once again fell under geopolitical pressure, although a relatively small decline was caused by the absence of major US players due to a holiday in the US. And again, risky assets, from stocks to digital currencies, collapsed with the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, where investors fear conflict in Eastern Europe. Against this background, one of the world's largest hedge funds, Man Group, called bitcoin a risky asset, as indicated by the growing correlation of BTC with the Nasdaq stock index. Black Swan author Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin as a hedge, calling it "the perfect game for losers" in an environment of low interest rates. Huobi co-founder Du Jun expects bitcoin to rise to new highs no earlier than 2025, basing his assumptions on halving-related price cycles. Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Monday, ending the day near $37,100, continuing to drop moderately on Tuesday morning to $36,700. Ethereum lost 3%, falling back to $2,500, while other top-ten altcoins also mostly sank: from 4.9 % (Binance Coin) to 7.1% (Solana). The exception was Terra, which posted a 3.8% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the day, to $1.66 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index rose from 41.7% to 42.2% due to a sharper decline in altcoins. The fear and greed index lost 5 points to 20, deepening into a state of "extreme fear."
What Are The Effects Of Russian Political Moves? Raise Of The Oil Price Is Not The Only One

What Are The Effects Of Russian Political Moves? Raise Of The Oil Price Is Not The Only One

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.02.2022 10:06
The beginning of Monday in Russia was quite positive: the ruble strengthened, reacting to the announcement of the summit of the leaders of Russia and the United States, mediated by France. The situation deteriorated sharply after the heads of the DPR and LPR turned to Putin with a request to recognize the independence of the republics. Over the weekend, the situation in the LDNR deteriorated sharply: on Friday, the evacuation of citizens to the Russian Federation was announced. Towards the evening, President Putin held an extraordinary extended meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on the recognition of the LPR and DPR. Oil quotes rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the likely imposition of sanctions against Russia, the world's leading oil producer. Restrictions may lead to interruptions in the supply of raw materials, further exacerbating its market shortage. Prices for Brent oil updated the highs of 2014, adding three dollars, and by the end of the day rose above $97 per barrel. Low-liquid trades aggravated the situation due to the holiday in the USA. While Europe admits that it cannot do without energy and resources from Russia, the banking sector is under attack. Trading volumes on Monday were record-breaking, which indicates the withdrawal of large players from the market. It is also worth paying attention to retailers and technology companies, which may find it difficult to work abroad or import goods and technologies. These sectors will show the most volatility depending on how events unfold. The current situation is tightening financial conditions for Russian companies, destabilizing markets and reducing business predictability. The volatility of the ruble and the closure of the Russian market for global capital will hurt the economy, probably sending it into decline in the coming quarters. In the long term, this threatens to reduce growth potential, which is already lower than that of many developed countries. Such conditions translate for the population into a drop in living standards through a decrease in real incomes or (at best) a dramatic slowdown in their growth.
Kind Of A Small Downtrend Visible On DAX Chart

Kind Of A Small Downtrend Visible On DAX Chart

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.02.2022 10:43
The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Summing Up The Previous Week: Cardano (ADA), Ether And The First Cryptocurrency Decreased By Ca. 10%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.02.2022 08:24
Last week, BTC repeated the dynamics of the first ten days of February. The rate strengthened on Monday-Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it exceeded the level of $44,800. Then on Thursday, the price began to fall sharply in unison with stock indices. The decrease in risky assets was caused by the growing tension around Ukraine, where the situation is becoming tenser. On Friday, Bitcoin continued to fall, briefly dropping below the round level of $40,000. This mark was broken on Sunday, and BTC tested the next support level at $38,000. The situation is aggravated by the increase in cryptocurrency sales by miners. As a result, the bears may try to push the price to $36,000 and even $33,000. Today, on hopes of a political de-escalation, BTCUSD is up 2.5%, trying to cling to levels above $39,000. I must say that bitcoin has lost all the growth of February over the past week. In addition to the upcoming Fed rate hike, BTC has been hit by growing geopolitical risks. In addition to this, the founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, noted that he sees early signs of the onset of crypto winter. This spurred crypto sales among retail investors over the weekend. However, ETHUSD is up 5.3% on Monday, recouping Sunday's decline and continuing to struggle to close the third month in the red. Overall, Bitcoin was down 9.2% over the past week, ending it at around $38,300. Ethereum lost 9.7%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also sank: from 3.3% (Avalanche) to 11% (Cardano). The total capitalization of the crypto market fell by 7% in a week, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell 0.7% to 40%, due to less weakening of altcoins. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index lost another 2 points to 25 on Monday, returning to the extreme fear territory.
Oh, Someone Has Stopped Brent Oil Price From Going "Out Of Range"

Oh, Someone Has Stopped Brent Oil Price From Going "Out Of Range"

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 13:20
Gold and oil, former beneficiaries of geopolitical tensions late last week, have gone their separate ways, with the former rising 2.4% and the latter losing 5% since the start of this week. Brent crude rolled back below $90 and, at one point on Friday, was losing 2.3% to $89, despite still worrying reports of tensions around Ukraine and Russia. It has fallen below the local support of the past ten days and is now just one step away from a decline since the start of the month. While geopolitics remains a joker capable of playing, either way, the macroeconomic picture is working to cool the oil price. US commercial oil inventories rose last week against a seasonally typical decline. As a result, inventories are now 10.9% lower than a year earlier, although it was -15% in mid-January. Production stagnated at 11.6m b/d, but at the end of last week, there was an increase in the number of operating oil rigs from 497 to 516. New data will be released later this evening. Probably, we will see more evidence that producers have stepped up production, convinced of the strength of demand and record profits in many years at their disposal. Locally, the activation of extractive companies is playing into the price pullback from current levels. However, it is a factor in slowing price growth in the longer term, but not a failure. The vector of monetary policy is also worth paying attention to. Rising rates often derail speculative growth in oil. We saw the last two examples on this theme in 2014-2015 when oil collapsed by 75%, and in 2018, it fell by 45%. After those hard lessons, OPEC+ has worked much more closely to meet quotas, so we are talking about a correction rather than a new bear market for oil. Speaking of a local correction, we assume a pullback in the Brent price to the $85 area. That is the peak area in October last year and September 2018 and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from December to mid-February. Deeper drawdowns are also possible if monetary tightening coincides with geopolitical détente and slowing demand. In that case, Brent might briefly correct towards $80. Positive signals on the Iran deal are also factors holding oil back. An agreement with Iran would signal an easing of some of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and add around 1% to the global energy system, allowing the resulting shortfall to be digested and a smooth return to restocking for the world.
Thaw Incoming? GBP Could Be Ahead Of An Uptrend As Retails Sales Indicator Hits Fine Value

Thaw Incoming? GBP Could Be Ahead Of An Uptrend As Retails Sales Indicator Hits Fine Value

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 09:30
UK retail sales added 1.9% in January, following a dip of 4.0% a month earlier. By the same month a year earlier, the increase was 9.1%, as January 2021 saw a sharp tightening of the lockdown and the vaccination campaign had only just started. The data came out slightly better than expected, supporting purchases of British currency against the dollar, but remains very volatile due to restrictions in previous months. Sales generally remained above multi-year trend levels, which is a good signal of the economy’s health. After the financial crisis from 2009 to 2016, there was a long period when sales were below the long-term trend line and were one of the obstacles why the Bank of England could not go ahead with a rate hike. These days, the need to suppress inflation is combined with the ability to do so thanks to strong consumer demand and the labour market. Sales were also boosted by pent-up demand for services and goods that were in restricted supply during the pandemic. This process may gain momentum in the coming months, painting a more colourful picture of consumer activity, but could lead to disappointment in the second half of the year. The Bank of England should keep a close eye on the coming economic releases to avoid repeating the mistakes of the ECB, which rushed through a rate hike in May 2009, undermining the economic recovery. On Friday morning, the British pound is testing the highs of February, rising to 1.3630. A rise to 1.3680 may be a development in the current momentum. However, a jump even higher would reflect a break of the downtrend since last June, anchoring GBPUSD above the 200-day average and setting the pair up to test previous highs.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Thursday: Significant Decreases Of Bitcoin (-7.7%) And ETH (-7.7%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.02.2022 08:52
Bitcoin collapsed on Thursday, the most in almost a month amid sales of risky assets. BTC lost 7.7%, ending the day near $40,700. Ethereum fell 7.7%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten also fell, from 5.4% (Binance Coin) to 8.5% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, sank by 7.3%, to $1.94 trillion. Bitcoin sold more actively than altcoins, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 39.8%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index plummeted 22 points to 30, returning to a state of fear. Bitcoin has clearly lost its function as a defensive asset lately, showing almost no correlation with gold, which was in high demand on Wednesday and Thursday. The technical picture looks bearish in the short term. Bitcoin did not hold above the 50-day average and fell under previous local lows. It is quite possible that from the end of January to mid-February, we saw a pullback after the momentum of the decline, and now a new step down is being formed. JPMorgan Bank indicated that crypto assets would be negatively affected by tightening US monetary policy. This approach puts crypto on a par with growth companies, which have also come under increased pressure amid rising market interest rates in recent weeks. Charles Munger, an associate of legendary investor Warren Buffett, likened cryptocurrencies to a "venereal disease" and praised China for banning them. According to him, cryptocurrencies are used by hackers, criminals, as well as those who evade taxes.
Russia And Ukraine Are Still Interacting. Are Markets Likely To Await Next Geopolitical Events?

Russia And Ukraine Are Still Interacting. Are Markets Likely To Await Next Geopolitical Events?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.02.2022 09:43
The Ukrainian crisis is not likely to recede into the background anytime soon. Promising Russian statements about the withdrawal of troops are refuted by the West and Ukraine, near where the exercises are taking place. There was also a series of accusations and denials about the shootout in Donbas in the morning, which triggered impulsive selling of risky assets. The local momentum of the markets' decline was less than what we saw on Friday following Biden's statements about Russia's impending attack on Ukraine. Still, the latest news clearly shows that we should not hope for smooth and quick exhaustion of the conflict and a favourable resolution in the coming days. So far, however, there are more signals that Eastern European politicians still want a diplomatic, not forceful solution, which forms a modest reduction in the pull towards security. The Fed was also on the side of the stock market bulls yesterday. The published minutes of the January meeting were not as hawkish as investors had expected. The FOMC at the end of last month did not consider a 50-point rate hike in March and did not talk about the need for seven hikes this year. Then we had the labour market report, which showed strong growth in employment and wages, and even later came frightening figures about inflation accelerating to 40-year highs. Yesterday the retail sales figures were added to it. Americans bought harder than expected in January, and some observers attribute that to a rush of demand due to inflation fears and a spike in auto and apparel prices. The Fed might revise its view to a more hawkish one after bullish reports, but the markets did breathe a sigh of relief, managing to pull the S&P500 and Russell2000 into the green at the end of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P500 and Dow Jones continue to struggle behind the 200-day moving average, with no victory signals for the bulls or the bears in this local battle. Investors and traders should pay close attention to this struggle, as a sharp pullback to one side or the other could set the direction for the days and weeks ahead.
Wednesday Wasn't A Big Gain Day For BTC (+0.1%), ETH Added More (+1.4%)

Wednesday Wasn't A Big Gain Day For BTC (+0.1%), ETH Added More (+1.4%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.02.2022 09:15
Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.
(TRY) Turkish Lira Seems To Keep Stable, Plain Line

(TRY) Turkish Lira Seems To Keep Stable, Plain Line

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 12:20
The Turkish lira has stabilised after the wild ride of December. Since the start of the year, the fluctuation of the lira formed a converging range with a centre of gravity at 13.50 in USDTRY and 15.40 in EURTRY. However, this lull is hardly a victory for the unorthodox monetary policy ideas being pursued by Turkey. Instead, market participants have turned their attention to developments in Russia and Ukraine, which has made Turkey, if not a haven, comparatively less dangerous for investors. Nevertheless, we see this lull as temporary, expecting the rate to move out of consolidation upwards, as Turkey's fight against inflation is weaker than necessary. Excessive monetary policy softness is further highlighted by monetary tightening worldwide, including in Europe, where central banks are moving to raise rates or roll back stimulus. The latest inflation estimates for January show consumer prices adding 50% and manufacturing prices almost doubling from the same month a year earlier. PPI is being pushed up by 70% devaluation of the national currency, plus a general rise in producer prices close to 10% in countries from China to the USA. Consumer prices have not yet fully absorbed the effects of the fall devaluation of the lira and promise to gain momentum in the coming months, continuing to undermine confidence in the national currency. An assessment of how inadequately soft Turkey's monetary policy is can be made by comparing the differential of inflation and the key rate. In Turkey, it is 35%, in Russia minus 1%, in Ukraine around 0% and in the UK 5%. Even in the US, where it is believed that the Fed has overlooked inflation and will now have to catch up with it through 7 0.25 point hikes this year, this differential is 7.25%, almost five times less than in Turkey. From all of this, there is a conclusion that the Turkish lira is heading upwards out of the consolidation range, i.e. a new round of currency decline is to be expected. However, this wave will likely not be as disastrous as it was in the final quarter of last year.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Ripple (XRP) Increases By 1.7%, AVAX By 12%, (BTC) Bitcoin Gains 4.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.02.2022 08:40
Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.
Will Oil (BRENT) Call For A Oxygen Cylinder? It Climbed Really High...

Will Oil (BRENT) Call For A Oxygen Cylinder? It Climbed Really High...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 15:22
Events in recent weeks have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from tensions in previous decades, with gold rising as insurance against currency destabilisation and oil rising on fears of surging demand and shortages of supply if sanctions constrain supplies from Russia. Interestingly, the West is trying to balance sanctions restrictions on oil as more encouraging comments come out of the talks with Iran. In our view, oil is very expensive, climbing to current heights faster than the economy can afford it. This rise is caused by geopolitical tensions around Russia, which acts as the world's largest energy exporter by a wide margin. Fears about the stability of future supply have so far outweighed any negatives, but it is still prudent to zero in on geopolitical influences over the medium to long term. And with that in mind, the oil price looks unsustainably high, vulnerable to a corrective pullback once the dust of military hardware settles. About 12 years ago, we saw a similar picture when oil prices recovered quickly. And then, the result was another round of global economic weakness, which also knocked down demand for commodities and forced regulators to postpone policy normalisation steps. Will it be like that now? Quite possibly, and then in the second half of the year, oil could turn sharply to correction and cause another shock for the economy. In recent weeks, significant factors are potentially capping price rises with increased drilling activity. Also, Russia will ramp up production as most of the wells are in areas with a harsh climate. Looking locally, we can see how quickly any declines in oil over the last three months are being bought out. In such an environment, oil could soon find itself in short squeeze territory, with short positions being forced to close due to rising prices. This mirrors what we saw in April 2020. It is difficult to predict the peak price level in such an environment. It would be an ideal market picture if the short squeeze occurred at the end of April on another major expiry, paying homage to events two years earlier. And ideally, if we saw a price return to the $112 area where the bear market in oil started in July 2014. But this is an idealised picture. The reality is likely to be less mathematically accurate, as so much is now tied to the actions and comments of policymakers.
Russian Rouble "Strengthened By Diplomacy"? RTS Index Increases

Russian Rouble "Strengthened By Diplomacy"? RTS Index Increases

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 13:00
The Russian market is trying to grow this morning. The RTS index has already added 5.5%, while the ruble has taken away 1.7% from the dollar and 1.3% from the euro. The growth impulse was formed yesterday when Foreign Minister Lavrov called for a search for diplomatic ways out of the situation. Later, comments by Zelensky, who in an address to the nation insisted on a diplomatic solution, and a speech by Shoigu, who ordered part of the troops to return to locations of permanent de-escalation, added positives. So far, these are only signals of readiness to discuss and look for ways to resolve it, but the incident is far from over: there are too many “buts” at all levels. If we consider the movement of currencies and stocks from the position that the market takes everything into account, we cannot fail to note positive signals. The EURRUB pair returned to the position from which it rushed upwards on Friday. Fixation below 85 will send a signal of market confidence in a trend reversal. In this case, a fast road to area 84 will be open for the pair. If politicians really plan to move forward on issues that have hung over the ruble like a sword of Damocles for the last 8 years, it will be possible to talk about the potential for the euro to roll back to the level of 80 rubles before the end of the first quarter. For the dollar, the significant point is the mark of 73.50. Fixing below this level will mark the renewal of the lows of the exchange rate for the entire last stage of tension and will also return the Russian currency to the long-term growth trend. In this case, a move to the 70 area over the next six weeks could be a viable prospect. However, even these relatively short-term forecasts look too shaky since the situation can turn 180 degrees at any second.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Goes Up! Heading To Two Thousand Dollars?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 10:07
Since the end of last week, the price of gold has risen by more than 3%. With a high of $1879, it was temporarily rose to highs since last June. Biden's warning that Russia could invade Ukraine "at any moment" triggered a broad sell-off in Europe and several emerging markets and tangentially affected the US equity market. Recent events have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from decades of tension: gold has risen as insurance against currency destabilisation, and oil has risen on fears of a surge in demand and a shortage of supply. Geopolitics give a shaky ground behind this growth, so investors should be wary of joining gold's rise. It is impossible to predict whether the next move will escalate or de-escalate. Now, there are far more signs that the peak of tension is behind us, yet gold continues to gain today. Likely, the fundamental demand for gold is now driven by a desire to preserve the purchasing value of capital amid inflation and ongoing price shocks across a range of commodities. Also, tech analysis is now on the side of the bulls. A trend of higher local lows has formed since the end of September, with the last anchor point in late January. In addition, the 50-day moving average is again above the 200-day moving average, giving a bullish "golden cross" signal. This signal coincided with a solid upward momentum on Friday, strengthening the bullish signal. In January, the former retracement resistance line became support, indicating a break in the trend. If gold stays above $1865 - the area of the November peaks- despite the reduction of the geopolitical premium - we can speak of a bullish momentum development. In this case, the nearest target of this impulse will be the area of $1900-1910. In general, we can say that the long period of correction and sluggish dynamics of gold is over, and then its price can move from one local top to another, potentially exceeding $2000 by August.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

BTC Wants To Let Us Forget About January's Lows. On Monday: BTC Decreased By 0.2%, ETH And LUNA Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 09:28
The first cryptocurrency returned to growth on Tuesday morning, adding 3.3% and rising to 43,500. Technically, BTCUSD held above the 50-day moving average and received support from buyers after another touch of this level. At the same time, however, this average is directed downwards, emphasizing the general downward trend. Cryptocurrencies seem to be once again trying on the role of a safe-haven asset, becoming a little more like gold and a little less like stocks. Although US stock indices were under pressure on Monday, they decided to stop the sharp decline at the end of last week. However, the high-tech Nasdaq ended the day unchanged. European stock indicators showed a noticeable drop under the influence of tensions around Ukraine. On the same background, gold shot up 3% to highs since June last year. It should be understood that in the event of a massive sale of shares, only short-term government bonds will be the protective asset of last resort. Institutions invested $75 million in crypto funds last week, according to CoinShares. Over the past four weeks, net inflows to crypto funds amounted to $209 million. The head of Uber said that the company would definitely start accepting cryptocurrencies in the future. A British crypto investor has announced the creation of a city for crypto investors in the Pacific and expects thousands of supporters from around the world to join soon. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to limit the investments of unqualified Russian investors in cryptocurrencies to 50 thousand rubles. The agency estimates tax revenues to the budget from the legalization of the cryptocurrency market at 10-15 billion rubles, and the main amount of payments will fall on the miners. Overall, Bitcoin was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day at around $42,200. Ethereum added 0.1%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decrease of 1.6% (XRP) to a rise of 2 .2% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.5% per day, to $1.97 trillion. The BTC dominance index did not change during the day, remaining at the level of 40.7%. The Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 46 and is in a state of fear.
Russian Rouble (RUB) Has Been Supported By Local Moves, But Is Under Geopolitical Pressure Now

Russian Rouble (RUB) Has Been Supported By Local Moves, But Is Under Geopolitical Pressure Now

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.02.2022 09:28
The strengthening of the ruble was interrupted on Friday as geopolitical factors again came to the forefront, pushing aside the fundamental and long-term factors that supported the ruble. The Bank of Russia did everything in its power to support the Russian currency: the rate was raised by 100 points to 9.5%, investors were warned of further increases, and the pause in foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry was extended. Nevertheless, before the weekend, investors again preferred to reduce the risks of owning Russian assets against the background of the fact that several Foreign Ministries of different countries called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. For the markets, this is a signal that a new round of geopolitical tensions and the negotiations in the outgoing week did not bring the long-awaited agreement. Against the backdrop of news about geopolitics, the RTS index lost more than 4.6%, and the Moscow Exchange fell by 3%. It seems that the Russian market will have to experience the convulsions of geopolitics more than once for at least another week. Fixing the ruble above 76.40 per dollar and 86.60 per euro will mean that the period of corrective rollback of the ruble has come to an end, and we need to prepare for a new wave of growth. But this is from the standpoint of technical analysis. In practice, geopolitics now rules the roost, where détente can be as fast as escalation. At the same time, fundamental factors (high rates of the Central Bank, expensive oil, and a pause in foreign currency purchases) continue to play on the side of the ruble. These factors promise to return the ruble to the path of growth very quickly, repeating the dynamics of the previous two weeks. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an upward trend until the end of February, rushing to the area of 71 per dollar and 83 per euro by the end of the month.
Crypto Market News: Hungary And Russia Take Crypto Into Consideration, ETH Decreased By 5.1%

Crypto Market News: Hungary And Russia Take Crypto Into Consideration, ETH Decreased By 5.1%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.02.2022 08:48
Bitcoin strengthened in the first half of the week and the middle, having managed to test the highs of early January above $45,800. The situation changed on Thursday after the release of US inflation data, which updated the maximum levels for 40 years, and US stock indices fell. This had a negative impact, among other things, on cryptocurrencies, which showed a significant correlation with other risky assets. Late last week, the Fed announced an unscheduled meeting to be held today, February 14th. As a result of the meeting, the regulator may well raise rates without waiting til March. Moreover, even a double increase is possible, by 0.50%. Tightening monetary policy can hit all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. On February 12th, the bitcoin network hashrate updated all-time highs above 248 EH/s. The indicator indicates the strengthening of the position of the blockchain and the development of its infrastructure. Kathy Wood, head of investment company ARK Invest, actively sold shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust backed by bitcoin throughout February. Note that these securities were purchased in July last year, at the time of the BTC reversal upwards. The Central Bank of Hungary has now called on EU countries to ban cryptocurrency trading and mining. The Bank of Russia announced its desire to reduce the involvement of citizens in the crypto market. For example, the Ministry of Finance proposed limiting the list of cryptocurrencies traded in Russia. In general, Bitcoin rose by 1.6% over the past week, ending it at around $42,200. Ethereum lost 5.1%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also mostly sank: from 4.3% (Binance Coin) to 19% (Solana) for a week. The exception was the XRP token, which showed a 20% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the week to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose by 1% to 40.7% due to the weakening of altcoins.
Central Banks Diversifies Investors' Considerations

Central Banks Diversifies Investors' Considerations

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.02.2022 08:42
It is widely believed that in March-April 2020, retail investors actively bought stock market declines while institutional investors sold. The market's rapid reversal to growth has formed a reflex for retail investors to buy stocks on downturns. However, we note a significant change in market fundamentals. With the onset of the pandemic, central banks were on the side of retail investors, dramatically easing monetary conditions, and governments handed out money and benefits but prohibited going out and spending money. It is correct to say that investors then did not fight institutions but followed a "don't fight the Central Bank" strategy. With the unprecedented injections into the financial system, the pendulum of the markets swung in the upward direction. But in recent weeks, the Fed, having received a surprise in the form of strong employment and rising wages and yesterday with accelerating inflation, must now move to the side of equity and bond sellers. Short-term traders should keep a close eye on how monetary policy expectations change. A month ago, the assumptions of 7 Fed rate hikes in 2022 or a 50-point step in March looked marginal. Yesterday the latter option was almost entirely in the price of rate futures. There is talk of a possible start of active selling from the Fed's balance sheet, and there is also talk of an extraordinary rate hike, possibly even today. Markets can hardly sustain this pace of tightening expectations for long. But while this is happening, it won't be a wise strategy to bet against the dollar and for the stock market.
Wondering What Will Be The Next Russian Rouble (RUB) As National Bank Can Increase The Rate

Wondering What Will Be The Next Russian Rouble (RUB) As National Bank Can Increase The Rate

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 09:33
On Thursday, the Russian ruble rolled back to 74.50, and on Friday morning, it rewrote these local lows to recover to the levels from which it started the year, winning back the failure in geopolitics. However, the strengthening of the ruble took place not so much on political de-escalation but on the actions of the Bank of Russia. And today, we are waiting for new actions that can both strengthen the positions of the Russian currency and return the ruble to the path of decline. We are inclined to believe that the CBR will remain on the side of the ruble. When making a decision on the key rate, the CBR will weigh the actual and expected inflation rates both in Russia and in the world, and there is little reason to relax. The latest estimates of inflation in Russia have shown that the annual rate of price growth has accelerated again, requiring a further tightening of the screws. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia is likely to raise the rate by 100 points - the second time in a row. Previously, the CBR maintained parity between the rate and the annual inflation rate, but now it makes sense to step up pressure to suppress inflation. At the same time, we should be prepared to hear comments that such a sharp increase may not be required in the future. Based on inflationary trends, the key rate could reach its 10% ceiling for this tightening cycle before the end of March and then hold at this level for another year. Another factor is the volatility of the ruble and geopolitics. In January, the CBR decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in order to reduce pressure on the ruble in the Russian financial market. The biggest risk for the ruble is that the CBR will announce today that it is returning to buying foreign currency. Such a move could hit the ruble hard. However, we believe that it would be logical for the CBR to extend the pause in purchases at least until the end of the exercises in Belarus, that is, until the end of February. The strengthening of the ruble, as a side effect of expensive oil and the suspension of foreign currency purchases, can additionally work to slow down import inflation and consumer inflation in general. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an uptrend until the end of February, rushing to the 71 area by the end of the month. However, it is still difficult to expect a steady growth of the Russian currency to the area below 70.
Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Bank of America Doesn't Approve Bitcoin, Which By The Way Decreased By 1.3% Yesterday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.02.2022 08:53
Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%
Crude Oil: WTI Fluctates A Bit, Now It's Slightly Above $90

Crude Oil: WTI Fluctates A Bit, Now It's Slightly Above $90

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.02.2022 12:13
WTI crude oil has lost around 3% since the start of the week, bouncing back to $88.4 from $91.2 at the beginning of the week. The observed pullback looks like a technical correction to remove local overheating. This correction comes against a relatively bullish background. Yesterday's data marked a new drop in inventories, both commercial and strategic reserves. The Biden administration has said it may accelerate sales from reserves. Perhaps these comments were a formal excuse for profit-taking in the market. However, the start of these sales came with a two-month rally. The government's intention to sell off reserves may even have contributed to the rise in prices. The desire to bring prices down is hurting US production ramp-up plans. Aggressive support for alternative energy has made the hydrocarbon industry unattractive to banks. As a result, we are seeing a much slower production recovery than in the recovery periods of the last decade. The number of rigs in operation is rising methodically, but it seems that new wells are only marginally offsetting spent ones. Also, OPEC has repeatedly suggested that the industry's severe underinvestment during the pandemic makes it impossible to ramp up production quickly now. Despite a favourable price environment, the cartel has not picked up quotas in recent months. It is also worth mentioning that countries are not imposing new travel restrictions but are loosening them more and more, supporting energy demand. Also, commodity prices are supported by political pressure on Russia, which threatens gas supplies to Europe and further fuels price increases. Locally, oil remains vulnerable to a corrective pullback after a more than two-month rally with potential targets at $84.5 for WTI - a 23.6% pullback from the rally and the October peak area. A deeper retracement scenario suggests a pullback to $80.3. For Brent, the near-term target is $86-87, with a deeper retracement to $83.
Bitcoin (BTC), S&P 500, Nasdaq Increased. Ether Gained 3.8%, Terra (LUNA) (+0.2%) And XRP (+5.2%) Went Up

Bitcoin (BTC), S&P 500, Nasdaq Increased. Ether Gained 3.8%, Terra (LUNA) (+0.2%) And XRP (+5.2%) Went Up

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.02.2022 08:30
On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market decided to push and grow amid the rise of US stock indices. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, while the high-tech Nasdaq gained 2.1%. All this helped Bitcoin shrug off the profit-taking sentiment at the start of the day and close in a slight plus. On the intraday chart, you can see purchases at the close of the American session, which clearly demonstrate the interest of the institutionalists in this region. The benchmark cryptocurrency continues to be in demand after strengthening above the 50-day moving average, which confirms the breaking of the downtrend of the previous three months. The RSI indicator on the daily charts is now at 61, still far from the overbought zone, confirming that the market is still far from overheating.   For the third week in a row, institutional participants have been investing in crypto funds, according to CoinShare. Why did they start doing this before the January meeting of the Fed, when no one believed in the BTC reversal. Crypto-whales also bought bitcoin on the fall. According to Santiment, they have purchased 220,000 BTC in the last seven weeks. On Thursday, US inflation data will be released, which will shed light on how quickly the Fed will raise rates. If inflation accelerates, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, may suffer significantly. Overall, Bitcoin added 0.5% on Wednesday, ending the day around $44,500. Ethereum rose 3.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics from 0.2% (Terra) to 5.2% ( XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.2% over the day, to $2.14 trillion. Altcoins showed outpacing growth, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 39.6%.
DJI (Dow Jones) And SPX (S&P 500) Are Likely To Recover Slowly

DJI (Dow Jones) And SPX (S&P 500) Are Likely To Recover Slowly

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.02.2022 09:26
Stock markets continue their shaky recovery. On Tuesday, intraday trading patterns in US equities point to a buying trend on declines. The S&P500 and Dow Jones indices rebounded from their 200-day simple moving average. Both indices were below those levels in the second half of January. Still, by the beginning of February, they managed to get back above them on the substantial buying activity of the retail investors. Yesterday's stock market dynamics slightly reduced the tension. Increased buying at the end of the session indicates a buying mood for professional market participants. There have been increasing reports from US investment banks that markets have already priced in a tight monetary policy scenario and will not press equity prices further. Moreover, BlackRock recently noted that markets had priced in overly hawkish expectations. The bond market also looks oversold, declining in previous weeks at the fastest pace since 2008. This is a good reason, at least for a technical rebound. In addition, buyers are supported by strong economic and wage growth, promising corporate earnings stability for the foreseeable future. The switch to a monetary tightening phase turns the market into a more frequent and deeper corrective pullback mode but does not trigger a bear market before a rate hike even begins. Strong fundamentals support a bullish technical picture, with a recovery from the strongest oversold S&P500 RSI and the ability to pop above the 200-day average. From this perspective, the January drawdown has cleared the way for growth, recharging buyers. On an equity level, we can see stabilisation and sharp upward moves in stocks that have been weak since June and shone in the pandemic before that: Peloton, Netflix, GameStop. In theory, this could be a dead cat bounce, but it reduces the selling pressure in blue-chip stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and straightens out the overall market sentiment.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Did Cryptocurrencies Need A Rest Yesterday? Bitcoin Increased By 0.3%, ETH Lost 1.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.02.2022 08:27
On Tuesday, Bitcoin showed a growing momentum at the beginning of the day and reached five-week highs above $45,000. After a short-term rise above this level, a corrective decline began in the middle of the day. The benchmark cryptocurrency was losing more than $2,000 despite the rise in stock indices. There was a sharp rebound towards the end of the day and closed the day almost unchanged as a result. Recovery in institutional demand for stocks late in the day on Tuesday helped Bitcoin stay above the 50-day moving average as well. Continued buying on the decline to this level will keep the technical picture bullish as upside momentum develops to $49-50K. A sharp dip lower today or tomorrow will raise the issue of a false break and bring the sellers back into play, heading for $37-38K. It became known that at the end of last week, the Canadian exchange fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF bought 1.75 thousand BTC in two days, which could lead to a sharp increase in prices. In addition, Valkyrie Investments has received approval from the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the shares of companies that receive at least 50% of their profits through mining. At the same time, the US authorities confiscated bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex crypto exchange in 2016 for $3.6 billion and detained those involved in the hack. The Russian Federation government approved the concept of the Ministry of Finance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies: a joint bill should be ready by February 18. Overall, Bitcoin gained 0.3% on Tuesday, ending the day around $44,200. Ethereum was down 1.3%, while the other leading altcoins in the top ten were mixed from a 5.7% decline (Binance Coin) to an increase of 5.4% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 1.2% over the day to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index increased by 0.8% over the day, to 40%.  
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Is Near The Level Of November 2010's

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.02.2022 08:49
Tightening monetary conditions in developed countries are not hurting gold so far, and investors' switch from buying risky stocks generates demand for the safe-haven. The daily charts also clearly show gold being repurchased in downturns. Since late last year, impulsive drawbacks on hawkish Fed comments are pushing the price down, but this momentum is not turning into a trend. Buyer support comes from higher and higher levels, although these purchases are measured and tempered, typical for long-term buyers. Such buyers could be central banks, which could diversify away from the dollar and the euro. But there could also be funds that want to stay away from bonds falling in price (on rising yields) at a time of steep rate rises. We can see the increasingly higher lows from August last year on the monthly candlestick charts for gold. So far, high inflation rates and market caution have not allowed a sustained upward trend in the price. However, the presence of solid buyers could revive buying very soon. An important reason for this could be developments in the Eurozone. Rising market interest rates are hitting the region's debt-laden periphery countries twice as hard. Investors may be worried about a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2011. Back then, investors used gold as a protective asset, losing confidence in the debt of almost half of the eurozone countries. It is too early to say that a repeat of the debt crisis is imminent, but early signs of a jump in Greek and Italian bond yields are forming a support for gold. If this trend turns into a problem, active buyers of safe havens promise to become many times more numerous
SEC Rejects Valkyrie, Kryptoin Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications

Bitcoin Hovered Around Ca. $44k Yesterday, Ether (ETH) Gains 5%, Solana Increases by 4%, Ripple by 18.5%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.02.2022 08:31
On Monday, Bitcoin rose 5.5%, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum added 5%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics: from 4% (Solana) to 18.5% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 5.5% over the day to $2.10 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has not changed, remaining at 39.2%. The Bitcoin chart continues to paint a bullish picture. With the price at $45K on Tuesday morning, BTCUSD is trading above the 50-day moving average just above the mid-January pivot area and above the down channel resistance level. At the same time, the RSI on the daily charts has not yet entered the overbought area, leaving room for further growth.  The same can be said about the entire cryptocurrency market, where the fear and greed index has reached a neutral point of 48 and is still far from the greed area. The next target for the bulls looks to be $48K, the December support area in December. Further targets are $49-50K, where the 200-day moving average and significant round level are concentrated. The XRP token soared amid reports of a significant approach to the resolution of Ripple's legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Cryptocurrencies briefly stopped responding to movements in US stock indices, which started the week with a decline. The purchases probably included retail investors, who were driven by the desire not to miss the beginning of the market growth (FOMO). However, their buying potential is unlikely to be enough if stock indicators intensify their decline and large institutional investors come into play, wishing to resume profit-taking. KPMG, one of the world's largest auditors, has added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its Canadian division's corporate reserves. This is the firm's first direct investment in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, at the end of 2021, Tesla received a loss of $ 101 million from a decrease in the cost of previously purchased bitcoins, which it spent $ 1.5 billion on. Previously, Elon Musk called the decision to acquire BTC as a reserve asset quite risky. 
The Fed gave the dollar a head start

The Fed gave the dollar a head start

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.02.2022 09:27
Friday's US labour market report raised the chances of a sharper Fed rate hike, placing USD on a solid footing.Employment growth of 467K in January was well above forecasts. In addition, there was a noticeable upward revision to the job gains of the previous couple of months. Furthermore, wage growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, marking the unwinding of the inflationary spiral.The markets are applying a 33% chance of a 50-point key rate hike by the Fed in March, leaving a 67% chance of a standard move of 25 points. This is a dramatic reassessment of the outlook, as just a month ago, rate futures were leaving a 24% chance that there would be no rate hike in March.Hawkish comments from Europe and England has added fuel to the fire. Last week, the Bank of England minutes 4 out of 9 MPC members voted for a 50 point rate hike. The ECB is warming to a rate hike this year and potentially twice, although they rejected the idea back in December.In our view, Friday's labour market report showed that the US still has a head start on the pace of economic recovery, which will allow for more monetary policy tightening.This is potentially positive news for the dollar, which found ground late last week after correcting by 2.3% from its peak in late January. If the Fed strengthens its signals of willingness to hike the rate by 50 points in mid-March in the coming weeks, it will be grounds for stronger dollar buying.History suggests that the momentum of the appreciation of the US currency against major competitors is exhausted a few months after a rate hike. Usually, it becomes clear that other central banks have already moved on to the pace of Fed rate hikes and are often even prepared to act more decisively.But we are not yet in this phase, and the Fed's policy, as well as the US economic indicators, provide the dollar with a head start for the foreseeable future. As early as February, the dollar index could rewrite the January highs near 97.5 against the current 95.56 and take the DXY into the 100-103 area by mid-year.
Bitcoin is gaining momentum

Bitcoin is gaining momentum

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.02.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is up 9% over the past week, ending at around $41,700. Ethereum is up 15%. Altcoins also woke up from hibernation and grew stronger than the market: from 5.8% (Binance Coin) to 17.3% (Solana).Over the same period, the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 11.2%, up to $1.99 trillion.The primary growth of the crypto market last week came on Friday when bitcoin at the end of the day soared by 10% in a few hours. The increase was not prevented even by strong data on the US labor market, which came out a couple of hours before the jump.It is worth noting that the Nonfarm Payrolls can force the Fed to move faster to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, the yield of 10-year Treasuries jumped above 1.93%, hitting new two-year highs, and this could soon lead to sales in the stock market. If cryptocurrencies manage to resist and continue to grow, this will be a serious trend reversal order. Just like on Friday, when investors decided to buy BTC in order to protect investments from inflation.Since then, Bitcoin has already added 17%, moving into a phase of an active uptrend. Technically, the first cryptocurrency broke the resistance of the descending corridor. Accelerating growth and steady buying throughout the weekend indicate a strong bullish momentum. Cautious investors are now looking at the test of the 50-day moving average. Previously, repeatedly fixing above this line preceded a multi-month uptrend.Potentially, this will also be lost now. Therefore, some players consider this impulse as an important first signal of a recovery in demand for risky assets, despite fears of a rate increase.Meanwhile, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that a number of governments could outlaw cryptocurrencies. The government of the Russian Federation is considering introducing a tax on miners of at least 15%. According to the authorities, the tax on all participants in the crypto market can bring up to 1 trillion rubles to the treasury. In the meantime, the Fed has presented the Digital Dollar White Paper, but the issue of its future launch has not yet been resolved.
Altcoins are climbing out of the pit

Altcoins are climbing out of the pit

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.02.2022 10:54
Down the chain, US stock market dynamics now determine corporate investor sentiment towards Bitcoin and Ether. From the top-down, this sentiment then spreads down to altcoins. But since late last year, there has been a continuing trend that even bitcoin's calming is enough for altcoins to return to growth and outperform the first cryptocurrency. In the last 24 hours, the entire crypto market has added 3.3%, while Ether has gained 4.7% versus Bitcoin's 2.4%. Ether has strengthened by 15% in the last seven days, returning to this month's highs and trying to climb above the bottom levels at the end of September 2021. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin has been hovering around the $1 trillion mark for over a week and approached the upper end of that range on Friday morning. The reduction in volatility in Bitcoin allows for an optimistic outlook on altcoins. At least in the short term. An essential boundary for Ether will be the $3K mark. A return in the price above this level could further encourage buyers and reject the idea of a crypto-winter following the example of 2018. Solana is showing signs of coming out of the hole it fell into at the end of January. The $90 mark has attracted sufficient buyer demand. However, it will be premature to discuss a sustained recovery to the upside, only a stabilisation after the collapse. A BTCUSD consolidation above $40k and Ethereum above $3k would shift the altcoin recovery to a new speed and restart the process of BTC share contraction in the entire market.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Cryptomarket Seems Not To Lose That Much as Bitcoin decreases by 0.7%, ETH by 1.8% and Luna Gains 4.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 04.02.2022 08:28
Bitcoin fell 0.7% on Thursday, ending the day around $36,800. Ethereum lost 1.8%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics from a 1.5% decline (Solana and Polkadot) to a 4.3% rise (Terra). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinGecko, added 0.2% to $1.79 trillion overnight. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 39.2%. Most cryptocurrencies were under pressure from declines in US tech stocks on Thursday. A weak report from Meta (Facebook) was published the day before, and the company’s shares lost more than 26% on the day, with the high-tech Nasdaq down almost 4%. The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq stock index has recently reached a new high. The first cryptocurrency was also hit by a shutdown of mining farms in Texas, caused by bad weather and a snowstorm. The state leads bitcoin mining in the US, accounting for about half of all BTC hash rates. Bitcoin volatility has fallen to 15-month lows in recent days. With the comparative performance of traditional financial markets, bitcoin has managed to add around 2.9% since the start of the day on Friday, reaching 38,000 and again testing the upper limit of the downward channel. However, the first cryptocurrency will need to break the key $40,000 level to confirm bullish sentiment. Otherwise, the pressure on BTC will continue and may even intensify. The developers of the 14th cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, have partnered with fast-food restaurant Wellu’s of Naples, Italy. The restaurant will use SHIB as a means of payment and has also fully rebranded its outlet in token style.
(FB) Meta Shares Decreases by 20%, Netflix (NFLX) Shares Goes Down As Well (-30%)

(FB) Meta Shares Decreases by 20%, Netflix (NFLX) Shares Goes Down As Well (-30%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.02.2022 14:47
Meta (FB) shares lost around 20% post-market, which appears to be an overreaction and shows how wary buyers have become of the former growth leaders, the so-called FAANG stocks. The sharp declines of former crowd favourites could result from a reassessment of the medium-term outlook, for example, due to changes in monetary policy. But they could also be the next domino effect in an impending bear market. Netflix shares lost more than 30% in a few days following a disappointing report late last month and fell 50% from their peak in late November before fumbling for support from bargain hunters. PayPal was not technically in the FAANG big league but was punished just as much, losing around 25% intraday yesterday. After Facebook, Snap (-15%) and Twitter (-7%) also took a tangential hit. In our view, these are not isolated corporate stories but manifestations of broader underline currents. And in the coming days, we will have to determine whether we see a change in the bull market leaders or the first signals of a prolonged bearish trend. In a bear market, the weakest stars are the first to fall, and then the vortex of decline attracts more and more strong participants. The first domino is meme stocks, which had fallen methodically since June when the first signals emerged that the Fed was starting to prepare the markets for a wind-down. Then we saw a peak in many high-tech stocks in November when the Fed started cutting back on buying. By this logic, the downward spiral could pull more strong stocks into a downward spiral by the time interest rates rise, which is expected in March. Looking more broadly at the Nasdaq100 index, there is a rather worrying tech analysis picture. It is once again below its 200-day moving average. The high-tech-filled Meta retreated 2.4% after the report. The S&P500 and DJIA, however, look noticeably stronger on the technical analysis side. But it is worth watching closely how the trading will go this week and whether the buyers will reverse the negative trend of the former Nasdaq favourites. If so, we see a change in the leaders in the form of a rotation in value stocks and other names affected by the pandemic. But fears that the Fed is preparing to take money out of the financial system could force market players to take money off the table by selling blue chips.
Solana (SOL), Polkadot (DOT), Terra (LUNA), Cardano (ADA), BTC And ETH - They All Lost On Wednesday

Solana (SOL), Polkadot (DOT), Terra (LUNA), Cardano (ADA), BTC And ETH - They All Lost On Wednesday

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.02.2022 08:33
Bitcoin fell 4.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $37.0K. Ethereum lost 3.9%, while other top-ten altcoins fell between 4.4% (Cardano and Polkadot) and 7.8% (Solana and Terra). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, overnight fell by 3.4% to $1.8 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance index fell 0.2% to 39.2%. Bitcoin began a sharp decline on Wednesday as the US session opened, along with US stock index futures. After several hours of falling, stock indices reversed and regained momentum. BTC, meanwhile, broke its previous strong correlation with equity indices and did not show a meaningful rebound. The benchmark cryptocurrency came under pressure from reports of a severe snowstorm coming to Texas. A year ago, a similar weather anomaly disrupted the power supply to a quarter of households and caused loss of life, forcing authorities to impose a state of emergency. The state's association of miners, the Texas Blockchain Council, decided to de-energise mining farms on Wednesday. Texas is home to the main bitcoin network computing capacity in the US. The states themselves are the world's number one miner of the significant digital asset (around 49% of hash rate). Bitcoin again proved that it remains in a downward channel, as the recovery bounce lost strength at the upper end of the range. In theory, a bearish reversal of bitcoin opens up the possibility of updating the January lows with potential targets near 30K.
BTC +0.6%, ETH gains 3.7%, Solana (SOL) Increases By 12.8%

BTC +0.6%, ETH gains 3.7%, Solana (SOL) Increases By 12.8%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 02.02.2022 12:42
Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $38,700. Ethereum added 3.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are growing: from 0.5% (Binance Coin) to 12.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.5% to $1.86 trillion overnight. Bitcoin hit a week-and-a-half high above $39,000 on Tuesday but then pulled back, offsetting almost all of the gains. The first cryptocurrency was boosted by positive stock indexes and a weakening dollar, but sellers began taking profits on long positions. Over the last eight days, BTC gained almost 20%, recouping more than half of the failure of the second half of January, and buyers decided not to take risks. Ahead is solid psychological resistance at the circular $40,000 level, which supported the first half of January. Technically, Bitcoin has stalled its gains as it approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel. Traders are waiting for new signals about whether the recovery in risk demand will continue or whether the latest rebound will soon be choked off. The result of this struggle will determine whether we will see a break from the downtrend or whether the downtrend will continue again. El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is confident that bitcoin will still show tremendous growth. It's all about the fact that there are 50 million millionaires in the world. If they wanted to buy a coin, there wouldn't be enough for everyone, as the entire bitcoin issue wouldn't exceed 21 million. MicroStrategy added another 660 BTC on the recent market decline. In total, MicroStrategy already has more than 125,000 bitcoins. Russian government officials told Bloomberg that Russians own $214 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. That's about 12% of the total crypto market capitalisation.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

BTC +7.3% (ca. $37k), ETH +7%, LUNA -25% - Last Week On Cryptomarket

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 31.01.2022 09:48
Bitcoin gained 7.3% over the past week, ending last week near $37,700. Ethereum added 7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 25% over the week (Terra) to a rise of 4.6% (Binance Coin). Terra's collapse is linked to the scandal surrounding the Wonderland DeFi protocol. The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.7% to $1.79 trillion for the week. The week didn't start encouragingly for bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency updated six-month lows below $33,000, but BTC sharply redeemed the short-term fall amid an equally sharp rebound in US stock indices. The US stock market interrupted last week's decline and rose for the first time after three weeks of decline. Apple's stock price jumped on Friday after a positive quarterly report and on Tim Cook's statements about the great potential of the metaverse. The rise in the stock market also contributed to the rebound in the cryptocurrency market, which again points to the strong correlation of stock and digital assets in recent times. This trend could continue at least until the end of this year. Despite stabilisation, the situation in the crypto market remains very fragile. Bitcoin could end up falling for the third month in a row. The decline in January is over 17%, and the first cryptocurrency has already lost 45% since the highs in November. The US Treasury Department plans to revisit the controversial FinCEN proposal for mandatory verification of bitcoin wallet users in 2022. If adopted, the proposal would require cryptocurrency exchanges to collect personal data from their users.
USD To RUB Went Up As Many Factors Influences The Rouble

USD To RUB Went Up As Many Factors Influences The Rouble

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 13:14
The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement. If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks. Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences. This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry. We should also not forget about the high interest rates that the Bank of Russia has been aggressively raising since March last year. And the markets are waiting for another 100-point increase in two weeks to 9.5%, which further increases the profitability of the ruble money market. But, unfortunately, fundamental and macroeconomic factors are far from being the only components of the complex exchange rate equation. Geopolitics also play an important role. A clear improvement in relations between countries and the issue around Ukraine has not yet developed. Worse still, investors remain alert that the rhetoric of US and EU officials on the one hand and Russia on the other can quickly fall out of the constructive rut. At the same time, experienced market participants know that when the level of uncertainty rolls over, market dynamics (up or down at the end of the day) is the best filter for the news noise around us.
DXY Hits Level of July, 2020 and Affects EURUSD

DXY Hits Level of July, 2020 and Affects EURUSD

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 10:26
The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.
XRP (-0.9%), LUNA (-8.3%), ETH (-2.5%). Bitcoin decrased by 0.4%

XRP (-0.9%), LUNA (-8.3%), ETH (-2.5%). Bitcoin decrased by 0.4%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.01.2022 09:07
On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 0.4%, ending the day around $36,200, and Ethereum fell 2.5%. The other leading altcoins in the top ten also mostly saw declines, from XRP down 0.9% to Terra with -8.3%. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.3% per day, to $1.72 trillion. Bitcoin tried to strengthen on Thursday morning but began to decline in the American session along with US stock indices. The US stock market fell following the results of trading on Thursday, although it opened with growth. The high-tech Nasdaq suffered particularly heavy losses. Investors continue to withdraw from US stocks amid the expected tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The day before, the central bank, following its meeting, signalled that it would start raising interest rates in March, curtailing the entire stimulus program at the beginning of the month. In the future, the regulator will begin to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. In such circumstances, investors will continue to reduce their positions on risky assets, and Cryptocurrencies may be hit first. Meanwhile, bitcoin is trying to stay above the $35,000 mark, taking advantage of some slowdown in the fall of the stock markets. However, if the fall in stocks accelerates, the crypto market will also accelerate its decline. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected Fidelity's application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Fidelity itself warned investors that bitcoin was in a “liquidity storm” due to high volatility in the stock market.
Flucation of EUR To RUB and USD To RUB

Flucation of EUR To RUB and USD To RUB

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.01.2022 09:59
The rate of the Russian currency reached 80.40 per dollar and 90.70 per euro yesterday after the close of the regular session. However, from these levels, the ruble seemed attractive for purchases. This brought the price back down from the psychologically significant round marks. The dollar was temporarily near peak levels, from where it has been unfolding since the end of 2014. Of course, the fact that the ruble previously went up from 80 does not allow one to blindly hope that the same will happen this time. However, it is a good reason to closely monitor the dynamics of the Russian currency, as well as the rhetoric of officials and the central bank when approaching these levels. Now it seems that geopolitics is more than embedded in premiums, which reduces the prices of Russian assets, including the ruble. However, there are other factors playing a part. In recent weeks, there has been increased attention to the Fed, which has entered the warpath against inflation, although for most of the past year, it was simply denied. If the tough tone of the American regulator causes pressure on the markets, this will be a new reason for the ruble to fall, even if not as sharp as under the influence of geopolitics. The best tactic for investors now is to watch the dynamics of the Russian currency near significant round levels. A sharp turn down in the EURRUB and USDRUB pairs will indicate strong purchases and will be another confirmation of how unbreakable these levels are. If we see a further slide of the ruble, we can say that the lowest point for it has not yet been reached. In general, it is worth being aware that the bottom may come very soon.
Wednesday (26.01.2022): BTC -0.6%, ETH +0.2%, LUNA decreases -6.6%

Wednesday (26.01.2022): BTC -0.6%, ETH +0.2%, LUNA decreases -6.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 27.01.2022 09:46
Bitcoin decreased by 0.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at around $36,400. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other top-ten altcoins mostly saw declines from 3.1% (Binance Coin) to 6.6% (Terra, an outsider of the day). According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.5%, to $1.73 trillion. Bitcoin showed positive dynamics all day against the backdrop of growing stock indices. Up until the Fed meeting, the first cryptocurrency was gaining over 6%, hitting 5-day highs above $38,800. However, BTC began to fall almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the Fed's two-day meeting. The regulator announced a curtailment of bond purchases in early March, as well as an imminent rate hike, followed by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. The fall of bitcoin accelerated along with stock indices in half an hour when the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, started his press conference. He noted that rising inflation could force the regulator to raise interest rates more aggressively. The first cryptocurrency may finally complete its upward correction if risky assets resume and intensify the fall after the Fed meeting. In Russia, buyers are now engaged in the withdrawal of capital and deprive the country's economy of financing, as announced by the Bank of Russia. Last week, the regulator proposed to ban the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies in the territory of the Russian Federation. The State Duma and the Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, are in favour of regulation, not a ban on the industry. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday urged the government and the Central Bank to come to a consensus on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan instructed the ruling party to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy. At the same time, the US Internal Revenue Service said that non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are used for illegal activities, and celebrities are spreading this by promoting NFTs.
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

EUR To GBP and EURUSD Will Go Down If Dollar Strengthens?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.01.2022 09:39
The US dollar has been gaining steadily against the developed countries' currencies since the beginning of the year. By the way, the yen was an exception: it has been adding 1.8% over the past 11 days after the stock market entered the turbulence zone due to a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook. According to historical data, the Fed often finds itself at the forefront of the monetary policy cycle. That is used to be translating into a stronger USD in the months before and after the first tightening. So the question is in what currency pairs it is most profitable to buy the dollar now. Among the developed and liquid currencies, three scenarios can be considered. The first way is to sell EURUSD. The euro is weaker than the dollar due to the ECB being on several steps behind the Fed. That means that the EU rates will remain lower for a longer period of time, and the balance of bond yields will be shifted towards the dollar. Given the pace the Fed intends to take in tightening monetary policy, this yield gap promises to widen further. Another way is to bet that monetary tightening is stressing the declining markets drag the pound down. We should keep in mind that the Bank of England has already approved its first tightening policy step, and in this case it's not far behind the Fed. At the same time, it's closely correlated with falling market indices. Need to mention that GBPUSD is still far from being oversold with a wide room for further decline. The third way is often more obvious. Traders may consider selling the currencies of developing countries, which are much more sensitive to the Fed monetary policy changes. However, EMs have been raising rates for almost a year, so selling them now is a bet on market volatility in the near term. For the longer perspective, higher interest rates promise to level out short-term gains. In this case, the dollar's down turn may be faster than in the euro.
Polkadot (DOT) Explained - A Pinch Of Origins And History

Polkadot Price +2.3%, LUNA Price -7.4%, ETH Price 1.1% and BTC -0.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.01.2022 09:33
Bitcoin decreased 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $36,600 while Ethereum lost 1.1%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a 7.4% decline of Terra to a 2.3% rise of Polkadot. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank 1.1% to $1.74 trillion over the past day. In total, the crypto market broke the recent days' decline after bitcoin hit lows of the last six months on Monday, dropping below $33,000. This was followed by a sharp rebound upwards to $37,500. The US market was the reason. Throughout January, stocks are falling in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. The decline in risky assets also had a negative impact on bitcoin, which has already lost about 20% since the beginning of the month. A correlation between the benchmark cryptocurrency and Nasdaq has reached a new all-time high, according to Bloomberg. On Wednesday, all the attention will be riveted to the FOMC meeting. If the regulator tightens its rhetoric and announces the upcoming rate hike as early as March, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, could suffer significantly. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged El Salvador to move away from bitcoin as a legal currency. MicroStrategy has stated that it would continue to buy BTC despite its decline in recent months. Its worth noting that a week ago, crypto funds recorded the first inflow of funds into their assets in the last six weeks.
Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Crypto Market News Sound "Less Negatively" This Time

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.01.2022 09:05
The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance. At one point on Monday, Bitcoin was down to $33K, but at the late US session, and now trades near $36.4K. Yesterday's drawdown almost closed the gap in July and also came from the lower boundary of the downward channel. The latter indicates that despite the prevalence of bears, the market is not yet ready to accelerate the decline. Bitcoin is gaining 2.8% in 24 hours, but most altcoins are losing ground. So, yesterday's rebound in bitcoin and the positive dynamics of the crypto market are more correctly attributed to technical factors: crypto investors are exiting altcoins to more liquid BTC, forming temporary bounces, but nothing more. The nearest target for BTC downside is $32.3K to close the gap entirely. However, it is worth being prepared to retest the July lows of $29.5-30K. Without support from the stock markets, these levels may not hold for long either. Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.
Price of Gold Chart seems to Feel Good Despite The General Investors' Situation

Price of Gold Chart seems to Feel Good Despite The General Investors' Situation

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.01.2022 08:59
Gold is trading near $1840, adding 3.2% from the Jan 7 lows, as a hedge against increased financial market volatility. By comparison, the S&P500 has experienced its worst start to a year in history, losing more than 12% in that time in response to the harsh tone of US monetary policy comments. At a point like this, we often see a divergence in the dynamics of gold and equities, which revives talk of a safe haven. However, investors should not forget that increased equity market volatility, if it lasts long enough, at some point triggers a capitulation of gold buyers. The critical question for investors now is when there is a switch between a favourable decline for gold and a real fear triggering a circular sell-off in all assets. We are looking at the performance of the yen and the franc. Both currencies are relatively protected from geopolitical risks on the Eurozone sidelines. So far, these currencies have moderately slid against the dollar, which suggests that we have not yet reached the point of reducing leverage. This means that a relatively positive background also remains for gold, which allows us to talk about a continuation of the positive trend of the last two months for the time being. The next central resistance area looks at $1870-1905, between the last two peaks. Among other factors, gold may be hampered by further declines in the stock indices if yesterday's bounce attempt does not materialize today. A move above $1900 would signal the end of a long-term correction in gold and start a new momentum of growth above $2500, which would last for up to two years. The opposite is also true. A pullback under $1800 would end the long upside attempt and the long consolidation. The main near-term unknown is the outcome of Wednesday evening's Fed meeting. The central bank's statements and comments could determine the other trend of gold, supporting or, conversely, reversing the latest upside attempts.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

Price Of Bitcoin Below $36k And Price Of Ether Below $2.5k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.01.2022 09:39
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 11 on Sunday and slightly up to 13 by early Monday. Crypto market capitalisation lost another 1.1% overnight to $1.61 trillion, the lowest since August. As is often the case with prolonged sell-offs, altcoins are falling with acceleration to the first cryptocurrency, causing BTC's share gains, which already stands at 41.3% against lows of 39.3% in mid-January. Bitcoin's share of 40% seems like a turning point, twice triggering a correction in the crypto market. This level stood like an informal threshold that optimism about altcoins had gone too far. However, the rise in bitcoin's share does little to help its price. We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area. Alarmingly, the sharp reversal on Friday was not followed by any meaningful bounce. Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation. Without capitulation, the markets will remain with an overhang of sellers. The price of ether has fallen to $2400, which is less than half of its peak price in November. Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether. We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.
Can We Call It A Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Below $40k And Ether Below $3k

Can We Call It A Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Below $40k And Ether Below $3k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.01.2022 09:44
The crypto market capitalisation fell to 1.83 trillion, losing 7.3% in the past 24 hours. As we had feared, the selloff was triggered by sharply negative sentiment in US equity markets and intensified by the breakdown of critical support levels. Bitcoin retreated to the $38.8K area. The amplitude of the decline from the peak at the start of the regular session in New York to the bottom at the opening of Asia exceeds 12%. Sellers have proven unbreakable (so far) the upper boundary of the downward price channel that has dominated bitcoin since mid-November. Another worrying fact is that Bitcoin's share has risen to 40.2% of the crypto's total cap. The implication is that investors are breaking out of altcoins even more sharply, as they are less confident in the ability of smaller coins to withstand the titans' fall. Without a sharp intraday reversal (chances for this are minimal), we can confidently expect an acceleration of long position liquidation in Bitcoin and further drawdowns. There is nowhere to look for support until the $30-33K area on the chart. Ether has given up support at $3K, quickly pulling back into the consolidation area of late September, ending up near $2.85K. The intensification of the selloff makes $2K the target of the initial downside wave. Earlier in 2021, the area of 30K for Bitcoin and near 2K for Ether was the bottom of a deep correction. This then attracted buyers, and the total market managed to rewrite highs. In that drawdown, the total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies was down to $1.2 trillion. If the first two cryptocurrencies were targeting lows last summer, it is logical to expect the entire market to return to the lows of that time. But then the external backdrop was highly favourable, as the US market was returning to growth with drawdowns in the 5% range, having already crossed that barrier earlier last year. The continued negative backdrop in equities sets up a deeper pullback in crypto. The crypto market's capitalisation could potentially shrink by half to the $830-900bn area before we see a new wave of long-term buyer inflows. For Bitcoin, this suggests the potential for a drop to 20k.
SEC Rejects Valkyrie, Kryptoin Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications

BTCUSD with -0.8%. Bitcoin price is currently near 41.5k

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.01.2022 08:55
Crypto market capitalisation slipped another 1.4% to $1.97trn. Attempts to rebound with a return above the round level faced further pressure in the morning. Notably, this time, altcoins are falling ahead of the curve. Bitcoin lost 0.8% overnight, and its share of total market capitalisation rose to 40%. The turning point in the trend was evident at the start of the week. And it means that the crypto market is starting to get scared. Interestingly, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at 24 - extreme fear - for the second day. These are low levels but do not indicate a worsening of the situation. On the contrary, the index is creeping upwards. Bitcoin is trading near 41.7k, managed to hold above 40k yesterday despite massive pressure in traditional markets. However, this local support is unlikely to withstand sustained pressure. Bitcoin is received support this week as investors sold altcoins, favouring the first cryptocurrency. This spillover is reminiscent of a risk-off situation, where the most liquid assets are in demand. Simply put, bitcoin is the crypto safe haven. But everything is relative. Bitcoin hardly looks stable enough for most investors in it. The dynamics of bitcoin and ether near $40k and $3k, respectively, are worth keeping an eye on this week. A consolidation below these levels could start the next phase for cryptocurrency markets with higher volatility and accelerating declines in the early stages.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

Bitcoin Price (BTC To USD) With Another Decrease

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.01.2022 10:50
The cryptocurrency market lost 2% of its capitalisation in the past day to $2.0trn. Buyers stepped up in the market between 8-11 January, soon after a dip to this round level. But as we can see, the bulls' strength was not prolonged enough. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index added 2 points to 24. The 18th of November was the last time we saw levels above 50. Since then, the cryptocurrency market has been steadily in a downtrend, with the overall crypto market capitalisation down 30%. Bitcoin is losing 2% overnight, retreating to the $42K mark, returning to an area of local lows before last week's rebound. Wariness prevails in traditional financial markets on Tuesday morning, so a fall under $42K could quickly turn into a test of the $40K level. The bitcoin chart is increasingly clearly showing a downward reversal with a continuation within the three-month down channel. The RSI index on the daily charts remains in neutral territory, meaning there is still room for a decline. The 50-day moving average is deeper under the 200-day moving average, indicating that the pair is in a bearish trend. Ether pulled back to $3180 from the region of $3500, and it is sinking under the bears' pressure. The methodical sell-offs are exhausting market participants, where the feedback loop is solid: price increases spur purchases, pushing prices up even more. Downturns or a prolonged period of sideways trading causes disappointment and waning interest. After all, many people come to cryptocurrencies looking for a quick buck. They are willing to take high risks, but the lack of momentum dampens the excitement. After rapid growth in 2020 and 2021, we should not be surprised to see the market cool down. The long-term weekly candlestick chart of Bitcoin shows that over the past seven years, support turns the market around, even during a depression, it passes through the 200-week moving average. This line is now near 19k, and by the end of the year, it will be slightly above 20k. A bear market development for cryptocurrencies could push Bitcoin back to 20 before the end of 2022 in a pessimistic scenario. These levels could be the best prices to buy, although experience suggests it could take another year of sluggish growth before seeing a new powerful uptrend and FOMO.
BTCUSD Moving Down In General, ETHUSD Not So Far From November Tops

BTCUSD Moving Down In General, ETHUSD Not So Far From November Tops

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.01.2022 08:33
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has been cruising between 21-23 for the past seven days - in the extreme fear territory, finding itself in the middle of that range on Monday. Meanwhile, the value of all coins tracked by CoinMarketCap fell 0.5% in the last 24 hours to $2.05 trillion. By and large, a sideways range, $2.0-$2.1 trillion, has also been prevalent here for the past seven days, marking a lull in bull and bear fighting. It remains to be seen whether this signifies fatigue from the past months' turbulent moves or preparations for a new strong momentum. The local victory is on the bears' side, dominating the top coins now, where losses range from -0.8% for Bitcoin to -5.7% for Polkadot over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin failed to build on last week's upside momentum and is back in the $41-42K consolidation area, approaching it from above. A decline from these levels in the coming days will be a development of the downtrend since November, reversing the BTCUSD from the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. A bearish scenario suggests a dip towards $31K by the end of this week to close the July gap. But the door for such a decline will only open after the bulls surrender the $40K level they managed to hold in September and earlier in January. Ether has also encountered a sell-off in its attempts to rise above $3.3K. The 200-day moving average level is now acting as significant resistance. Bitcoin and Ether, which have a combined capitalisation of almost 60% of all cryptocurrencies, show worryingly negative dynamics. At the same time, their share has been declining since late last year. We are seeing either a shift in investor attitudes towards the sector leaders or certain inertia of altcoins compared to the flagships. Right now, it seems that crypto enthusiasts are not at all opposed to the changing landscape. However, as is often the case in nature, such changes rarely go smoothly.      
Dogecoin (DOGE) allowed by Tesla (TSLA) in some way. BTC and ETH with decreases

Dogecoin (DOGE) allowed by Tesla (TSLA) in some way. BTC and ETH with decreases

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.01.2022 10:05
Pressure on US tech stocks was a significant theme in US trading yesterday, dragging cryptocurrencies down. The Crypto market capitalisation adjusted 1.1% overnight to $2.05 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 2% overnight, down to $42.8K, and ether is losing about 1.5% to $3.3K. Other top coins are declining with much less amplitude, as investment fund darlings rather than crypto enthusiasts have been hit the hardest. The Doge, which has become accepted as a means of payment for some (inexpensive) Tesla goods, deserves a separate story. Some have noted that goods for Doge are selling out even faster than for dollars. On this news, the coin is adding 18% today at $0.20, near the highs for the month. This news is a good illustration of crypto's continued penetration of corporate culture. On the other hand, Tesla won't necessarily hold these coins forever. People will be more active in spending their investments in DOGE. The technical view of the ETHUSD is disappointing because the selling intensified earlier in the week while it tried to break the 200 SMA again. The dip and consolidation below suggest a break of the bullish trend formed in May 2020, when the pair consolidated above this line. In a worst-case scenario, it could be a road to $1300-1700, about half of the current levels. It is doubtful that in this bear market cycle, the price of ether will lose 95% of its peak, as it did in 2018, which could completely nullify the rise from 2020. Bitcoin's disposition is no less worrisome. A death cross forms in it as the 50-day dips below the 200-day. At the same time, the price is below these averages, which reinforces the bearish signal. Attempts earlier in the week to form a rebound are encountering more substantial selling, further indicating seller pressure. The bearish picture in Ether and Bitcoin makes the entire cryptocurrency sector appear cautious in the near term. Individual growth stories, like DOGE, run the risk of quickly losing strength today when the overall backdrop turns negative.
Next Rate Hikes In The USA Ahead. Update on Dollar Index (DXY)

Next Rate Hikes In The USA Ahead. Update on Dollar Index (DXY)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.01.2022 09:55
Fundamental and technical factors on the dollar locally give opposite signals. However, after a long period of strengthening the American currency, a corrective DXY pullback looks like a logical short-term prospect. On Wednesday, the US dollar came under pressure, the sharpest loss since last May and coming out of a prolonged consolidation. The dollar index retreated below 95 for the first time in two months. EURUSD surpassed 1.1400, trading at 1.1440 at the time of writing, having consolidated beyond the narrow range where the pair had spent the previous almost two months. Often such a decisive move out of the range is followed by a further breakout move, which we may well see in the coming days. The Dollar Index closed below the 50-day moving average on Tuesday and made a further move lower on Wednesday. The fall out of the range gave an informal start to the correction after the rally from May through most of November and the sideways movement in December. A potential target for such a pullback is seen in the 93.50-94.00 area. Near 94 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the dollar's move amplitude in 2021 and the starting point of the last rally in November. Near 93.50, the peak area of the index last year could be equally strong support. It hardly makes sense to say now that we are seeing the start of a big wave of dollar decline, as solid fundamentals support its growth. It looks like Fed members started a competition on whose expectations and comments are the most hawkish, and consumer inflation has given little reason to change the rhetoric. Among the latest comments is Powell's reassurance that the economy can cope with rate hikes. Fighting inflation is a top priority for the US central bank. Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, predicts a first rate hike as early as March. This practically rules out a pause between the end of balance buying and the first policy tightening. Furthermore, there are increasing signs that rate increases can continue to occur more frequently than once a quarter, as was the case in the previous tightening cycle. Many other central banks in developed countries are not yet prepared to tighten their policies as vigorously, which generally creates a sustained pull towards the USD on the interest rate differential in its favour.
If USD increases, will crypto go down?

If USD increases, will crypto go down?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.01.2022 08:49
The value of the cryptocurrency market rose almost 3% over the past 24 hours to 2.07 trillion. Exceeding the psychologically important circular mark pulled demand for coins outside the top 10. Separately, bitcoin enjoyed demand from the pull into risky assets in traditional financial markets and the weakening dollar. Bitcoin has fallen slightly short of the entire crypto market since the beginning of the week, pushing its share down to 40%. However, it is too early to say that a new rally in crypto has begun. The crypto market remains 30% below its peaks in early November, and capitalisation growth is uneven. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index lost 1 point to 21 overnight, despite increasing market cap. Yesterday's rise did not gain traction at the start of the day on Thursday. Fixing above $45K against $43.5K now would confirm the strength of the bulls. It is reasonable to talk about a rebound within the descending channel until that time. If the dollar goes back to growth in the nearest future, it will pressure stock markets. The cryptocurrency market, in these circumstances, risks reversing back to the downside, stopping the rebound and remaining in a prolonged downtrend channel. We should be wary of a smooth decline like this, as it drains optimists. We saw a similar descent in 2018 when the fall became uniformly smooth in the second half of the year, and a wide range of crypto-enthusiasts switched to standby mode until mid-2020.
Fed and OPEC possibly affects Oil - WTI and Brent. Holidays in 2022 in times of COVID-19

Fed and OPEC possibly affects Oil - WTI and Brent. Holidays in 2022 in times of COVID-19

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.01.2022 09:26
WTI crude oil surpassed the $80 mark in Tuesday's trading, near two-month highs and solidly above the 2018-2021 pivot levels near $75. Oil's fall in November-December by more than a quarter from a peak in late October probably served as a reset for oil. Interestingly, oil rose yesterday against plainly bearish news. The WHO warned of a sharp rise in omicron cases in coming weeks, and Oman's oil minister said OPEC+ did not want to see oil at $100 and overheat the market. However, traders were reading between the lines. The rapid spread of omicron is coming closer to the point of reaching collective immunity, raising the chances that summer travel and the holiday season will this time be much more pre-pandemic like. While initially causing some pressure on quotations, Oman's comments on oil did not present anything new in substance. As before, the cartel intends to stick to its plan to raise production by 400K per day every month. This is more than enough to shift the balance in the market towards surplus at the start of the year, but not enough to avoid causing excessive overheating of oil and provoking a new shale boom in the US and elsewhere. Producers in developed countries complain that banks are reluctant to finance new crude projects, requiring companies to become 'greener'. This raises the breakeven price of production projects, giving OPEC+ a head start. In addition, oil was probably positively impacted by Powell's confidence in the economic recovery, which is not threatened by either omicron or several rate hikes this year. Locally, investors interpreted this as confidence in a surge in oil demand in the coming months, which boosted the price. It will not be surprising if oil goes off to retest October highs near $85/bbl WTI and $87/bbl Brent in the next couple of weeks. If the demand for risky assets remains in place by then, we would expect a start of a rally towards $100 and an entrenchment in the $80-100 range through 2022. However, we cannot rule out that the speculative optimism in oil will fade as the Fed's tough stance on the economy is realised.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

At the moment, contrary to ETHUSD and other altcoins, BTCUSD isn't increasing that much

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 12.01.2022 09:02
The crypto market has again surpassed $2 trillion, adding almost 2.7% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has not kept pace with the rise in altcoin prices: BTC strengthened by 1.45% against a 4% rise in ETH, while other leading coins added between 3% and 7%. The purchase of altcoins has intensified after the first cryptocurrency defended the $40K mark. This was like a sign of faith in the sector's short-term prospects, which again allowed enthusiasts to invest in potentially more undervalued coins and projects. The crypto Fear and Greed Index added 1 point to 22 overnight, but we can see that investors took the recent plunge as a buying opportunity. On the chart, bitcoin rebounded from a psychologically important support level for the second time since September. In addition, the RSI indicator on the daily charts came out of the oversold area, signalling a pause in the bearish momentum. However, it is too early to say that we are seeing the beginning of a new growth wave. There are several reasons for that. In this wave of decline, the RSI indicator reached lower lows than earlier in December and markedly lower levels in September and July, marking more persistent and prolonged selling than in previous episodes. Bitcoin's consolidation attempts this week is only a wobble near the bottom. A bullish reversal will be indicated by solid upward momentum in July or September. The mini rebound in December was quickly eaten away by the bears. BTCUSD is consolidating near the lower boundary of the descending channel. To say that we see more than just a bounce within this trend is only possible if it grew above 45k - where the previous local lows and the downside resistance line are concentrated. If bitcoin fails to develop an uptrend, it will seriously spoil sentiment for cryptocurrency traders, creating a toxic environment in the sector and putting selling back on the agenda, despite the prospects of individual projects.
GOLD might be boosted with some factors

GOLD might be boosted with some factors

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.01.2022 09:56
An active reassessment of the outlook for monetary policy continues in the financial markets, but these changes have so far not moved gold from its position near $1800. The latest gold performance shows that it remains a portfolio diversification instrument, with little correlation to stock indices. Gold has gained for the third consecutive day, almost hitting the $1810 level. Last week the price came under pressure along with stocks, as US government bond yields rose as investors preferred them over precious metals paying no dividends or coupons. Gold also decreased intraday on Monday on a sharp fall in equities. However, buying on declines towards $1785 is well notable in gold. This is another jump around sustained buying. Previously, the areas of notable buying were $1760 in November and December and $1720 in August and September. Even earlier, in March 2021, gold got strong demand on dips to $1680. It is important to note that the higher support levels in gold at the end of last year occurred at the same time as the bond yields were rising, so the correlation between these assets is not direct. Historically, gold is vulnerable to rising long-term government bond yields only in case of a massive risk-off in the markets, which we witnessed in the epicentre of the last two global crises in 2008 right after the Lehman bankruptcy and in 2020 in the first weeks of the official pandemic. If the Fed and other central bankers manage to rein in inflation without causing major market turbulence during the policy normalization period, it could be a good springboard for gold. We have seen a similar example in the last tightening cycle. The first rate hike at the end of 2015 ended a corrective pullback in gold, becoming the starting point for a new six-month-long growth wave. Now the approach of a rate hike could draw attention to gold as a hedge against declines in growth stocks, which have a high sensitivity to interest rate movements. On the technical analysis side, if a new upside momentum in gold forms, it will lead the path to the $2500-2600 area after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the August 2018 to August 2020 growth wave.
Ether (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market with some ups and downs. BTCUSD looks as if it follows Nasdaq (NDX)

Ether (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market with some ups and downs. BTCUSD looks as if it follows Nasdaq (NDX)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.01.2022 09:05
On Monday, we saw colourful confirmation of how much stock market dynamics are affecting Ether and Bitcoin. Following the intraday fall of more than 2% in the Nasdaq, the top two cryptocurrencies surrendered their psychologically important levels, retreating at $ 3K and $ 40K, respectively. However, in all cases, the fall was redeemed. The Nasdaq closed with a nominal decline, and Bitcoin very quickly returned to levels near $ 42K. Ether is currently trading at 3100, gaining over 1% since the start of the day. The broader technical picture has not changed, indicating locally oversold, which puts buyers on the run who have been waiting for a discount in recent days. The crypto market as a whole has been losing 0.6% over the past 24 hours, but since the beginning of the day, it has been adding 1.6% to $ 1.96 trillion against the dip to $ 1.86 trillion at the peak of the decline on Monday evening. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index lost 2 points in a day, dropping to 21. This is still in extreme fear, just like yesterday and a week ago. In our opinion, bitcoin and ether are bought locally by enthusiasts and a number of long-term strategic investors, while investment funds trade them based on bursts of demand or risk aversion. By and large, this puts cryptocurrencies on a par with growth stocks, sensitive to the dynamics of interest rates: the rise in profitability causes a sell-off of risks. At the same time, we must not forget that cryptocurrencies are more mobile, that is, they sometimes lose twice or three times more than Nasdaq. If so, then cryptocurrencies are far from the bottom, since the process of normalizing interest rates in financial markets is far from complete.
Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto in general became even more appealing recently

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto in general became even more appealing recently

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.01.2022 10:37
The cryptocurrency market received moderate support from retail buyers over the weekend. Over the past 24 hours, the capitalisation of all coins rose 0.22%, according to CoinMarketCap, approaching $1.97 trillion. The top altcoins lost 11-19% over 7 days but found buyers over the weekend. The $2 trillion mark in total crypto valuation turned into local resistance last week, from where pressure has intensified. However, a strong buy-the-deep mood has kept the market from forming a downward spiral. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was stuck at 23 over the weekend, indicating extreme fear. The index has been hovering at the lower half of the scale since November 18th. Optimists, however, may note that the indicator has bounced back from the 10 level. The dip here in May and July coincided with the lows within the impulse, hinting at the potential for some technical rebound. Technical analysis also suggests a rebound in BTCUSD, with the RSI on daily charts showing attempts to move up from the oversold area below 30 and the price hovering near the reversal area in September. A longer-term view of the cryptocurrency market makes one more cautious about its prospects. Bitcoin has been in a downward corridor since November last year, having fallen to its lower boundary by the end of last week. Local overselling is a chance for a rebound, but the overall trend is still downwards. Cryptocurrency investors should not dismiss the idea of 4-year cycles in Bitcoin affecting the entire sector just yet. According to this hypothesis, 2022 could turn out to be a repeat of 2018 and 2014 - bear market years after a surge in the previous two years. Thus, it is worth paying increased attention to whether the crypto market manages to return to growth in the coming days and weeks. A strong start to the year will put these fears to rest.
EUR/USD as predicted affected by the Fed policy, NFP release brings inflation up

EUR/USD as predicted affected by the Fed policy, NFP release brings inflation up

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.01.2022 10:05
The Fed continued to surprise markets at the start of the year with hawkish rhetoric by unexpectedly raising discussions on balance sheet shrinking. Investors are noticing that the issue has been on the table much earlier than it was before. In the last episode of QE, it took almost two years from the start of tapering and allowing it to shrink. The pauses between regime switches gave time for the markets and the economy to adjust, and for the Central Bank to evaluate the results of the policy, because the lag between the change in policy and the peak of its impact on the economy often exceeds six months. In our view, there is a real risk that the markets and the Fed are being too hawkish in their forecasts, moving abruptly from denial of inflation to a willingness to use their entire arsenal at once to beat it. But such activity to rein in inflation could easily prove excessive. As Friday's labor market data showed, job growth in the U.S. continues to slow, at only 199K, an 11-month low and half of what was expected. The drop in the unemployment rate to 3.9%, the lowest since the pandemic began, reflects a decline in the number of people looking for work. But it hardly allows us to expect consumer spending to rise, depriving the economy of a crucial pro-inflationary factor. In addition, fertilizer prices fell at a multi-year record pace last week, container prices have retreated from their peaks, and logistical problems are slowly fading from the agenda. Rate futures are laying down a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike as early as March. Several forecasters also suggest that the rate will rise at each subsequent meeting. But this could come as an excessive shock to the economy, risking causing a recession without putting it firmly on the growth track. Interestingly, unlike the futures market, the currency market remains in a period of narrow sideways movement of just over 100 pips around 1.1300. It is unlikely that the ECB will act as quickly and decisively as the Fed. If projections for a rate hike by the latter as early as March and an accelerated move into a balance sheet reduction phase will form a strong upside potential for the dollar. However, after Friday's weak data we have a growing belief that the market has jumped ahead in expectations and a reversal of such will start soon, which will play against the dollar and relieve pressure on stocks.
Crude Oil lays a solid ground for the next year

Crude Oil lays a solid ground for the next year

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.12.2021 16:15
All this week, oil’s intraday dynamics have seen a weak start in Asia and a slump in trading in Europe, replaced by an increase in buying when US traders get in on the action. By the start of the regular session in New York, Brent crude had reached $75.4, temporarily climbing to $75.70, within arm’s length of the December highs area. Even more tellingly, oil’s dip under the 200-day moving average at the start of the week attracted buyers and did not cause an intensification of the sell-off. Last year, in October-November, a similar sell-off below the 200 SMA triggered a new momentum that buyers supported based on optimism on the news about the arrival of the vaccines. Now, comparatively optimistic reports that omicron is less likely to lead to hospitalisation. The UK and US governments have opted not to impose severe lockdowns nor stop international air travel, are acting as a driver for Crude prices as a year ago. Such news forms the necessary positive backdrop for oil, suggesting a recovery in demand. At the same time, supply growth is held back by a host of factors, from Exxon Mobil refinery accidents and supply disruptions in the Middle East to industry underinvestment in the US and UK and self-restraint from OPEC+. If the world does not face overcrowded hospitals early next year and avoids new waves of lockdown, oil is well placed on returning to above $80, laying the foundations for a trading range of $85-$100 for next year.
Hot Pound can jump to 1.36 before the year ends, with a long-term target at 1.60

Hot Pound can jump to 1.36 before the year ends, with a long-term target at 1.60

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 23.12.2021 14:24
The British Pound is gaining support from several drivers at a time, managing to add more than 1.5% since Tuesday to levels above 1.3400 in the GBPUSD pair, which we last saw a month ago. The British currency’s ability to show buyer support on dips below 1.32 earlier in December has attracted the attention of speculators, who come into play as financial market liquidity declines in the run-up to the Christmas holidays. Very often, there are more decisive moves in the thin market during pre-Christmas and between Christmas and New Year period, much of which the market recovers back in the first days after the holidays.The Pound also looks attractive for short-term buyers because it positively correlates with risky assets. Strengthening demand for equities as part of the Santa Rally has determined the direction in which GBPUSD will move in the short term.GBPUSD is also interesting from a tech analysis perspective. The British currency has gained support after a 50% pullback from May 2020 lows at 1.2070 to this year peaks near 1.42, and a 61.8% rally from the March 2020 lows. Globally, this reversal from support could be the end of a correction and the start of a new GBPUSD upside wave with a long-term target at 1.60. However, a move towards levels we last saw only in 2014 is only looking plausible if the Bank of England will repeatedly raise rates faster than the Fed and well above inflation, copying the policy of the early 2000s.A much closer target for speculators at the end of the year is 1.3600, around which the resistance area of the descending trading range of the second half-year passes. A sure exit above this would signal that not only speculators but also more structural forces are in play.
Having A Look At The Markets Considering Tensions, COVID-19 And National Banks Decisions

EURUSD consolidates before further decline

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.12.2021 15:06
The main currency market pair, EURUSD, is trading in a sideways pattern of around 100 pips, rarely breaking out of it for long. The observed balance is very fragile. The news backdrop from Europe and the US has been very mixed regarding monetary policy and overall demand for risky assets. When we look at the situation from a short-term perspective, the fundamental analysis is clearly against the Euro for now. Officially, the ECB has not backed down from its position that inflation is temporary, in stark contrast to the reversal of rhetoric and the acceleration of tapering from the Fed. From this perspective, the Eurozone’s lag in the rate hike cycle has so far only increased, which should reduce interest in the region’s bonds and put pressure on the Euro. It seems that on the Euro’s side now is profit-taking from short sells after it has weakened by 8% and 6.5% against the Dollar and the Pound so far this year. Also supporting the single currency could be the expectation that monetary tightening in the US, Britain, and a host of emerging economies will keep inflationary pressures in check, allowing the ECB to do its bit. However, it is more likely that the current lull in EURUSD is only a temporary balance of power, which will be broken at the start of the new year as big players return to the market with ideas for new trades. The pause in the EURUSD decline observed in recent weeks is not a sign of ironclad support in the Euro at current levels. Instead, it is a local retracement of positions. And, after a pause, EURUSD will head further down to the multi-year lows at 1.05-1.07.
Bitcoin and ether defend significant levels

Bitcoin and ether defend significant levels

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.12.2021 09:18
The cryptocurrency market has gained another 1.8% over the past 24 hours, bringing its total capitalisation to $2.28 trillion. The index has been choking on growth for the past three weeks at the $2.3 mark, so further rise promises to strengthen the bullish case, at least in the short term. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has jumped to 45. This is a fear territory, but very close to neutral territory. Judging by the continued demand for risky assets in traditional markets and the positive performance of cryptocurrencies as of this morning, this index could well continue to rise at the end of the day. Bitcoin is trading near $49,000, returning to the highs of the last week and a half, adding 1.3% in 24 hours and 2.3% over seven days. Technically, the first cryptocurrency managed to close noticeably above its simple 200-day moving average, which could spur demand from those buyers who were waiting for the battle for that important level to unfold. The price of Ether is above $4K, which is also a positive signal for the entire crypto market. The situation looks like Ether staying above $4K and Bitcoin staying above the 200-day average is fuelling buying among smaller altcoins. Keeping key currencies above psychological marks fuels hopes that the market has not switched to bearish mode. On the other hand, we remain wary of the crypto market outlook, noting that Bitcoin and Ether look like clinging to meaningful levels. The bearish scenario can only be cancelled if growth develops from current levels.
Santa rally begins

Santa rally begins

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.12.2021 12:34
Most stock indices seem to have managed to get that much-needed support from buyers yesterday, which opens the possibility of a Santa rally in the coming days. Earlier this year, some commentators, including us, have repeatedly pointed out that this year, the bottom of the month is very often near the 20th. Often there are expirations of monthly and quarterly futures and options around that date. And around the last ten days of the month, we regularly see capital inflows into the markets. We saw exceptions in January and November, but then the S&P500 index was near all-time highs, and there was profit-taking in the last few days of the month. September was also an exception, when the bounce in the indices lasted only two days, finding support only with the start of the new month. The current momentum looks like this year’s typical case: Indices were well away from the highs by Monday, and we saw buyers interest at the end of the day yesterday. The positive sentiment also extended into the Asian session and the start of the European session. Although the European indexes lost much of their early day gains and traded near opening levels, they are still clinging to growth territory. In addition, Bitcoin and Ether, meaningful indicators of risk demand, are up 4%, indicating that bullish sentiment prevails in the markets. A moderately weaker dollar also helps, showing year-end risk traction. These sentiments may well persist until the end of the year. 2021 was not a quiet or particularly delightful year for US equity markets, but they managed to add around 20% on the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices, putting it in the top 10 best years since the turn of the twentieth century. History suggests that a strong year comes with a strong ending. Beyond that, it is worth looking at the performance of the various sectors in these final days of the year. In the last two weeks, the list of leaders and outsiders can shed light on the year’s trends ahead.
Lira’s fall reached Erdogan’s pain point

Lira’s fall reached Erdogan’s pain point

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.12.2021 09:07
The Turkish lira gained 40% in the past 13 hours, sending USDTRY from 18.3 to 11. Despite the impressive amplitude, the exchange rate is only back to levels of a month ago. There is no doubt that behind such a sharp strengthening were interventions by the central bank, which decided to spend a significant portion of its already meagre reserves to stem the chaos in the financial market. Interventions alone won’t solve the situation, so to make a move looking bold, the Turkish president has announced compensating lira deposit holders if the currency’s fall exceeds the return on dollar deposits. Exporting companies will get the lira forward rate directly from the central bank as lira buyers have disappeared on the open market. There is a lack of important details, but it most likely means that more national currency will be printed, increasing the pressure on its value. In our view, this is a sure step towards hyperinflation. Since the end of last week, the currency crisis has taken on more and more signs of a financial crisis, as the fall in the lira began to pull the stock markets, bringing trading to a halt. The surge in the lira promises to hurt the market even more in the short term today and in the next few days. It seems that the lira’s fall has reached the pain point of the Turkish president and government. Although we and the markets, in general, have doubts about the correctness of the announced measures, still, the very appearance of these steps should signal an exit for speculators who have been betting on a collapse of the lira in recent months.
Chart of the Week - Crude Oil Capex Collapse

Oil intensifies decline, aiming for $65 by the end of year

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.12.2021 11:48
Oil came under pressure at the start of trading on Monday on news of lockdowns in Europe, but also oil broke significant technical levels, which opens the prospect of further price declines. WTI ended last week close to $70, but pressure from reports of rising contagion in Europe and fears of a drop in demand due to lockdowns are causing a 4% dip so far on Monday to $66.5. Brent fell close to $70, the level was last seen in early December. Earlier oil had bounced out of that area on hopes that Omicron would not be as dangerous as previous strains and its spread would not lead to new lockdowns. So far, these hopes have not been fulfilled, causing the capitulation of buyers betted on an easing of the pandemic. But apart from Omicron, oil is under pressure from the technical picture. A sharp decline on Monday morning sent WTI and Brent below their 200-day moving averages. A consolidation below that line means that the current price is below the annual average, which often triggers exits from funds pursuing factor strategies. It could well be that we saw the end of the price momentum that started last November at the end of October. For most of that rally, oil ignored negative news and reacted strongly to its positive news. Now we might well be witnessing a switch to a different mode and an emphatically strong reaction to the negative. In addition, traders should not write off the continuing rise in production, both agreed by OPEC+ and caused by the US, where we see both production increases and the sale of reserves from reserves at the same time. Brent could potentially correct towards $65 before the end of the year, aiming for $60 in the early months of the new year. For WTI, that would be $62 and $57.
SEC Rejects Valkyrie, Kryptoin Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications

The crypto market is melting before our eyes

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.12.2021 08:53
The crypto market's capitalisation has fallen 2.8% in the last 24 hours to $2.166 trillion. Methodical pressure on the significant coins persists along with wary trading in traditional equity markets. The bitcoin price has been losing 2.5% in the last 24 hours and is 5.6% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Ether is down 3.4% and 4%, respectively. Some other top coins are also under severe pressure, but we cannot say that the dynamics are unambiguous. For example, XRP is up 5.5%, AVAX is up 22%, and Luna is up 30.7% in the last seven days. At the beginning of the year, institutional and investment bank interest provided cryptocurrencies with overperformance but now lowered demand for safety is becoming their Achilles' heel. The most methodical, albeit relatively measured, pressure has been seen in Bitcoin and Ether, which have been under bearish control for the past month and a half. According to equity and commodity market definitions, BTCUSD and ETHUSD have crossed the bear market threshold, having lost more than 20% of their peaks in early November. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is not gaining meaningful support on the decline towards the 200-day average. These are all signs that the bear market is entering its rights, as enthusiasts can no longer buy out any drawdowns. Generally speaking, a modest downside amplitude is not typical of cryptocurrencies, so short-term traders should be prepared for an explosion of volatility on a decline below meaningful levels. We assume that crucial support is concentrated near $40K for Bitcoin, a resistance level in January and a support level in October. Falling below this level could dramatically increase the coin's volatility and affect the entire market. For Ether, relatively measured volatility could continue up to the level of the 200-day moving average (just above 3300), which coincides with the area of extended consolidation in August and September and the start of the latest rally in October. Suppose Ether and Bitcoin fail to find strong buying below these levels as well. In that case, we risk seeing a true capitulation of the entire cryptocurrency market and a revision of the outlook to a more bearish one.
Natural Gas: to the Moon and back

Natural Gas: to the Moon and back

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.12.2021 10:41
The energy crisis is in no hurry to leave Europe. The first wave of astronomical increases in gas prices this autumn has been followed by a second one, with even higher prices, in Europe exceeding $1500 yesterday. As is often the case, several factors combined in an unfortunate coincidence led to the crisis. It seems that China and Europe were over-zealous at the start of the year in encouraging economic recovery and moving away from coal consumption. The first substitute for coal was gas. But Russia, which had not yet got a certification for North Stream 2, diverted gas to China. The situation was exacerbated by the failure of wind generation, on top of a hot summer and a rather chilly start to winter, requiring more energy. All this is multiplied by a policy that Gazprom is failing to deliver via Nord Stream-2 and that the Russian giant prefers to use other ways to supply gas to Europe as little as possible. So the policies of all concerned have only exacerbated the price hike. Now, the officials’ mood and rhetoric do not promise a rapid improvement soon. However, it is worth realising that it is also in the political will to drastically alleviate the pressure on gas prices. It is unlikely that Europe will survive the whole of 2022 in such a situation, but there could be a rather nasty rise in electricity prices in the next couple of months, pushing inflation further upwards. The latest round of gas price rises came when Germany announced that it would not rush to certify NS2. Almost immediately after that, we saw Gazprom continue to reroute gas to China, exceeding the agreed contractual norms as much as possible, while supplies to Europe dropped to a 6-year low. Europe’s logical response to the current energy crisis with its supply problems is promoting alternative sources of energy. High gas and coal prices are a natural catalyst for the switch to alternatives, and politicians can help by announcing stimulus to speed things up even further. It is also worth looking at companies associated with LNG, which is more flexible than pipeline gas in changing supply in response to demand fluctuations. Gazprom itself rarely benefits from sharp price spikes. It is more likely to benefit from long-term trends, supply growth, and Brent Crude price. The roller-coaster ride we see in European gas prices is not a good investment idea as it creates a lot of uncertainty and adds volatility. Looking ahead to the year, I think the power generation and alternative energy suppliers sectors (beyond coal, oil and gas) are attractive. Shares in companies in the traditional energy sector have risen impressively since last November, and this rally, in our view, is coming to an end. The trend for ESG - took off too fast at the start of 2021 and will run out of steam somewhat over the coming months. It’s not a hundred-metre race but a multi-year marathon, so a smooth transition would be logical. As we see at the end of the year, disruptive moves cause severe supply chain disruption and are costly to the world, including a new surge of interest in coal earlier in November. As long as it looks like a speculative hype idea, we expect companies to outperform this trend when the initial noise subsides and the distortions are balanced. ESG now resembles Big Tech a few years ago: a lot of hype and periodic “deflating”, but there is more potential here than in other trends in the long run.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Metaverse Tokens Sink After Holiday Crypto Rally

How deep can the crypto market fall?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.12.2021 08:59
The cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours to $2.21 trillion. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index reacted rather sharply, losing 6 points to 23 and slipping back into extreme fear territory, remaining in the lower half of the scale for over a month.Among the top coins, Solana (+3%) and Tera (+6%) fared best, while Polkadot (-3.8%) Cardano (-3%) fared worst. Bitcoin, which is sensitive to demand from US tech stocks, has lost more than 2% in the past 24 hours to $47.5K. Its rate continues to walk around the 200-day average, reflecting either indecision or a balance of power between buyers and sellers. At the same time, this line itself has reversed downwards, and the RSI on the daily charts remains near the oversold area. Both of these indicators point to a possible failure of the price shortly. A bearish scenario could bring bitcoin back to 40K or even 30K fairly quickly if we see another episode of margin liquidation. Large long-term buyers are unlikely to return before the price drops to $20K. Further evidence that the bears own the initiative in cryptocurrencies - ETHUSD is holding below $4000, confirming the shift from a rising to a downtrend in the last month. Should the sell-off intensify, potential buyers of Ether should look to $3350. The rally started from this level in early October, and now the 200-day moving average is near this mark. A break below it runs the risk of a buyers’ capitulation and would quickly land the rate at $2700. A longer-term bearish target is seen in the $1300-1700 area, where long-term buyers are expected. The realisation of such a bearish scenario would return capitalisation to the $1 trillion area for the entire crypto market. This would be a slightly lesser failure than the top two currencies, as we believe that long-term investors are still looking for other projects outside of the two oldest currencies.Market Analyst live on the youtube channel.
The 10 Public Companies With the Biggest Bitcoin Portfolios

FOMC helped Cryptos to hold important levels

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.12.2021 08:33
Over the past 24 hours, total crypto market capitalisation rose by 2.1% to $2.24 trillion, recovering to the levels at the start of the week. Yesterday, the figure was close to the $2.0 trillion mark, but demand for risk assets recovery supported cryptos, providing around a 12% rise from the bottom to peak in the following four hours. On balance, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index reclaimed another point, rising to 29. The bulls seem to be putting in the necessary minimum effort to keep the positive picture on the charts of the major cryptocurrencies. But there isn’t much more to do now. Bitcoin is up 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $48.7K. The bulls managed to push BTCUSD into the area above the 200-day moving average but are not getting away from it. Etherereum is adding 3.5%, clinging to the $4K. The strong market reaction after the FOMC pushed ETHUSD above this round level, but we saw some selling pressure in the morning. Short-term traders should closely watch whether the former support has turned into resistance. The pair of major cryptocurrencies appear to have been supported by a general increase in risk appetite in the markets following the FOMC announcements. However, investors should keep in mind that this upward move in traditional financial markets was more of a “buy the rumours, sell the facts” style reaction. Fundamentally, news about the faster QE tapering and greater willingness to raise rates has already been priced in during previous weeks. But at the same time, long-term investors should not lose sight of the natural tightening of financial conditions because of these moves, which will slowly but persistently reduce demand for risky assets. The main risk for the crypto market is that we have seen a monetary regime switch in the last couple of months, which promises to take some of the demand for crypto away..