Silver forms more bullish reversal signals

Silver forms more bullish reversal signals

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.06.2023 16:27
The precious metals market has slowed markedly after a tumultuous February-March and the second half of May. However, Silver continues to show signs of medium-term upside readiness.The May sell-off in Silver, which brought the price down over 13% from its peak to bottom at $22.67, was capped by a 3% reversal on May 26.Later, May closed with a strong upward move touching $24.0 an ounce. And this week, Silver is closing the trading sessions above $23.50 despite the intraday dips. Incidentally, the latter tends to become less and less deep.Separately, on the daily timeframes, the RSI index has turned to the upside after touching oversold territory, which is a sign of at least a pause in the downtrend. In addition, the RSI reached higher local lows at the end of May than at the lower point in March, indicating less seller strength.Although Silver Bulls defend the lower boundary quite effectively, they have yet to prove their ability to push the price higher.The nearest resistance is in the $24.0 area, where the price reversed to the downside at the start of June. That level also coincides with the 61.8% retracement of last month's downside move.A rise above that level qualifies the correction and paves the way to $24.5, a significant resistance area in December-January and the 50-day moving average.A higher rise would set up a quick return to the $26 area, near the peaks of the last two years. But in this case, the bulls will have already proved their superiority, and reaching $30 will be no more than a matter of time.
ES to Surge Above 4,300

ES to Surge Above 4,300

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 07.06.2023 16:04
S&P 500 followed up my projected path yesterday – dip soon bought, then chop and up, ignoring bearish macro data. GS assigning lower odds to recession made for the dip to high 4,270s, as the implications are bearish, but given the quite greedy sentiment, stocks were slated to ignore that given the bullish market breadth (expanding leadership while tech didn‘t sink), allowing me to call for more upside to develop overnight, i.e. justifying holding the tactical intraday trade.Today‘s commentary will be brief, focusing on charts and levels within the most interesting markets below.Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.Gold, Silver and MinersI called for gold and silver to do well yesterday and today – and they‘re likely to deliver, modestly deliver. The levels below should hold even during FOMC turbulence the way things stand now – quoting „I‘m still not looking for breach of gold $1,930 – $1,950 , or silver $23.15 (I had to update the silver zone of $23.15 - $23.40 to its lower border only thanks to prior copper weakness)“.Crude OilGlimmer of hope in crude oil – black gold seems set not to decline heavily (to or below $68) this week, following yesterday‘s price action, and continued USD dillydallying and recessionary tiptoeing.CopperThe caption says it all, copper and commodities are doing quite well. The farther and longer before FOMC the red metal stays above $3.77, the better for odds of $3.72 holding up during the somewhat hawkish leaning upcoming conference.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Mostostal Zabrze: Strong Financial Results and Promising Partnerships Shape a Bright Future

Mostostal Zabrze: Strong Financial Results and Promising Partnerships Shape a Bright Future

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 07.06.2023 14:43
Mostostal Zabrze operates in specialist construction, assembly and industrial production, and in all these areas, despite concerns about the economic situation, it still generates good results. Quarterly results Once again, Mostostal Zabrze recorded very good results. Revenues in 1Q23 increased by 51% y/y, EBITDA by 47%, and net profit by 94%.   In terms of revenue, all three basic operating segments recorded high growth, while at the level of operating profit, the Industrial Implementation and Design segment and the Machine Construction segment recorded high y/y dynamics, while the result of the General and Engineering segment, the construction segment, was lower than in the previous four quarters. In the latter case, the company cited a large part of the contract for POSCO as the reason, in which there were minor delays, which translated into a decision to take a more cautious approach in showing the current profitability of the contract. Lower backlog, as forecast At the end of April, the Group's order backlog amounted to PLN 841.9 million, which means a decrease by 29.1% y/y and at the same time is responsible for 72% of revenues from 2022.       This situation is in line with the announcements for 2021 and included in our forecasts from previous reports. Since the restructuring that took place a few years ago, the company has declared to avoid very high value individual contracts, which expose it to greater risk. Despite this, she undertook two large orders, which we wrote about earlier. One of these contracts is nearing completion and the other is half way through. After their completion, the company will continue to focus on smaller, but more profitable contracts.   New perspectives The cooperation between Mostostal Zabrze and ArcelorMittal Poland looks very prospective. Mostostal has been its partner in repair works for years, an example of which is the currently conducted general overhaul of the Blast Furnace, where it performs the largest scope of works. A company from the Mostostal Zabrze group also carries out conceptual and design work in the process of decarbonisation of steel production. Implementation of such projects is rather a question of "when, not if", and their value will be counted in billions of PLN.     The presence of the company in these projects from the very beginning, with its experience working for ArcelorMittal, gives a good chance to participate in these large contracts also in the future. Valuation and recommendation The favorable judgment in the Wood case and the increase in market valuations translated into an increase in the value of the company calculated by us.   The value of shares in the DCF model with the payment for the Śląski Stadium is PLN 3.80, without the payment PLN 5.60, while the valuation based on a comparison with other companies is PLN 5.80. This gives an average of PLN 5.30, which means that the buy recommendation for Mostostal Zabrze shares is upheld.    
Contrasting Forces at Play: The Struggle of Hungarian Industry in the Face of Weakening Domestic Demand and Uncertain Export Market

Contrasting Forces at Play: The Struggle of Hungarian Industry in the Face of Weakening Domestic Demand and Uncertain Export Market

ING Economics ING Economics 07.06.2023 13:07
Hungarian industry faces opposing forces Weakening domestic demand continues to weigh on industrial performance, while export activities are dampening the plunge in output. However, risks are looming regarding the latter as well.   After two months of stagnation, Hungarian industry continued its freefall in April, as the volume of industrial production fell by 5.8% year-on-year (YoY), adjusted for calendar effects. The very bleak yearly-based performance is the result of a 2.5% month-on-month (MoM) decline in the volume of industrial production, after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects. In this regard, the underperformance is not only due to base effects but to the fact that the current performance is increasingly subdued, with production shrinking month by month. In the latest data available, production volumes in April 2023 were already as low as of the end of 2021, calculated on a fixed basis.     Even though the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO) will only release the detailed data next week (14 June), the preliminary statement highlights that the great majority of the manufacturing subsectors contributed to the production decline. What’s more, this time HCSO explicitly highlighted that output grew only in two subsectors, namely: transport, and electrical equipment manufacturing (e.g. EV batteries and cars). Overall this means that only those sectors that are related to the automotive sector are able to breathe life into the industrial sector.   In our view, the Statistical Office’s statement underscores our view that the performance of Hungary's industry continues to be dominated by contrasting dynamics. On the one hand, weakening domestic demand towards manufactured goods is heavily weighing on industrial output. As we pointed out yesterday in our retail sales piece, the volume of sales for manufactured goods in April was down by 4.5% compared to March, which highlights the lack of demand that Hungary's industry has been suffering from in recent months. What’s more, if we look at yearly dynamics, demand for manufactured goods was already down by a fifth compared to April last year.     On the other hand, export sales are essentially able to compensate, to some extent, for the very bleak performance of domestic sales. The order books of the observed manufacturing sectors show a similar picture, with export orders rising on an annual basis, while domestic orders are falling. However, the export market is not able to keep the overall output figure above water, thus we believe that the downtrend in industrial performance will continue in the second quarter of this year.     Going forward, we believe that these contrasting dynamics will likely persist, but a big question remains for how long the export momentum can last. Recent surveys in Europe show that an increasing number of manufacturing firms are reporting that they are producing mainly for stocks and that order books are shrinking.   In the retail sector, euro area respondents report a similar trend, as demand is weakening, and they are holding much higher inventories than usual, which sooner or later could catch up with Hungarian industrial production. On top of this, recent news of struggling German industrial production poses a risk to Hungarian export sales, as Germany accounts for 25% of the country’s export shares.   Moreover, the latest Chinese trade data is not encouraging for those hoping for a further recovery in global trade. These are all clear downside risks for Hungary's industry, which can currently only be supported by export-oriented sectors. The April aggregates for retail trade and industry thus continue to paint a gloomy picture for the Hungarian economy, which can only be pulled out of a technical recession in the second quarter by a good performance in agriculture.     In light of today's data, we can only repeat what we have been saying from time to time, that the Hungarian PMI has not been reflecting reality for many months. In our view, this is due to the fact, that the most important industries, including the largest export-oriented companies, are strongly over-represented.   Meanwhile, the slump in smaller manufacturers and more domestically-oriented sectors with a more modest weighting is more than offsetting the production indicators that are somehow linked to the automotive sector.   It is, therefore, time to review the methodology used to compile the index, which does not provide any meaningful information on the performance of industry. In any case, neither the value of the PMI nor its movements can be considered representative or indicative.
Cryptocurrencies struggle to stay afloat

Cryptocurrencies struggle to stay afloat

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.06.2023 11:04
Market pictureThe cryptocurrency market is up 2.7% to $1.121 trillion, approaching the middle of its trading range for the past month. Strong growth momentum late on Tuesday allowed for a brief recovery of capitalisation lost after news of SEC actions against Binance and Coinbase.Bitcoin has risen 4% in the last 24 hours to $26.85K, finding strong support on dips below $25.5K. Such active buying is a sign that crypto enthusiasts are confident that a US regulator on the warpath will not cause global problems for cryptocurrencies.Technically, yesterday's strong buying has somewhat lowered the temperature of concerns about the near-term outlook for the price. It was back above the 200-week average and within the closing ranges of the last four weeks. Nevertheless, a wait-and-see approach now seems more prudent as Bitcoin has yet to prove its ability to gain further strength. A significant bullish signal would be a surpass of $27.5K, where many local highs and the 50-day moving average are concentrated.News backgroundBinance has issued a statement saying that it will "vigorously defend itself" in the case against the SEC. Binance has also refuted allegations that the platform puts customer funds at risk. The platform has been accused of falsifying trading volumes and trading in unregistered securities and has mentioned 61 tokens at once, including big names such as SOL, ADA, MATIC and ATOM.In its crusade against crypto, the SEC sued Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange. According to the agency, several tokens on the exchange fit the definition of securities: SOL, ADA, MATIC, FIL, SAND, AXS, CHZ, FLOW, ICP, NEAR, VGX, DASH and NEXO.SEC chief Gary Gensler said on CNBC that the modern world doesn't need cryptos.Charles Hoskinson, Cardano founder, called on the crypto industry to unite against SEC authoritarianism to prevent totalitarian control of people's finances. He said the regulator was "turning the US into an Orwellian dystopia" and introducing the digital dollar would give the Fed complete control over people’s finances.
China's Imports Recover: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Copper Boost Market Sentiment

China's Imports Recover: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Copper Boost Market Sentiment

ING Economics ING Economics 07.06.2023 10:48
The Commodities Feed: China's imports recover China’s crude oil and natural gas imports recovered strongly in May, which could help improve market sentiment. For copper, China’s concentrate imports jumped to a fresh high, while unwrought copper imports remain soft.   Energy – China's crude oil imports recover China’s crude oil imports recovered to 51.44mt or around 12.16MMbbls/d (up 17% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year) in May 2023, as some of the refineries increased their utilisation rate after concluding maintenance. Demand slowdown from China has been a major concern for the crude oil market recently, and a recovery in oil imports is likely to provide some comfort to the oil market. Higher refinery utilisation has also increased refined product supplies in the Chinese market, with China reverting to being a net exporter of refined products last month. Among other energy products, natural gas imports into China increased 17.3% YoY to 10.6mt in May as lower gas prices in the Asian market supported demand for storage.   In its latest short-term energy outlook report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised higher domestic oil production estimates, as the decision by OPEC+ to extend output cuts could push oil prices higher and bring more investments into exploration.   The administration revised higher the production estimates to 12.61MMbbls/d for 2023 compared to earlier estimates of 12.53MMbbls/d and output of 11.88MMbbls/d in 2022. For 2024, production estimates are revised higher to 12.77MMbbls/d compared to earlier estimates of 12.69MMbbls/d. On the other hand, US demand for crude oil is revised down from 20.47MMbbls/d to 20.42MMbbls/d on slow demand for distillates – although this is still higher than the 20.28MMbbls/d of consumption in 2022.   Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that the US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.71MMbbls over the last week, in contrast to market expectations for the addition of around 350Mbbls. Cushing crude oil stocks are reported to have increased by 1.53MMbbls. On the products side, API reported that gasoline and distillates inventories rose by 2.42MMbbls and 4.5MMbbls respectively over the week ending 2 June. The more widely followed EIA report will be released later today.     Metals – Chinese copper concentrate imports at record highs China released its preliminary trade data for metals this morning, which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper fell 4.6% YoY to 444kt in May, largely on account of higher domestic production of the refined metal. Cumulatively, unwrought copper imports fell 11% YoY to 2.14mt in the first five months of the year.   Meanwhile, imports of copper concentrate rose 16.7% YoY to a fresh record of 2.56mt last month, with year-to-date imports up 8.8% YoY to 11.31mt from January to May this year. In ferrous metals, iron ore monthly imports rose 3.9% YoY (+6.3% MoM) to 96.17mt last month, while cumulative imports are up 7.7% YoY to 480.7mt from January to May.   On the exports side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium products shipments fell 29.7% YoY to 475.4kt last month while year-to-date exports declined 20.2% YoY to 2.32mt in the first five months of the year. Exports of steel products jumped 41% YoY to 36.4mt from January to May this year.   Meanwhile, data from the Mines and Geosciences Bureau shows that nickel output in the Philippines rose 5.4% YoY to 3.9dmt in 1Q23 despite only a few mines being in production. The bureau reported that only 13 out of the nation’s 33 operating mines reported output for the above-mentioned period, as some were impacted by unfavourable weather conditions while few were undergoing scheduled maintenance.   However, the bureau remains optimistic about the outlook for the mining industry over the long term, following the expected recovery of the global economy and strong demand for nickel ore.     Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge The latest trade numbers from Chinese Customs show that soybean imports in China rose 24.3% YoY (+65.6% MoM) to a record high of 12.02mt in May. The imports surged sharply as the delayed cargoes (due to last month's strict inspections) were finally unloaded at ports. Cumulatively, soybean imports rose 11.2% YoY to 42.3mt over the first five months of the year.   Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments from the EU reached 28.9mt for the season as of 4 June, up 11.4% compared to 25.9mt from the same period last year. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. Meanwhile, the EU’s corn imports stood at 24.6mt, compared to 15.3mt reported a year ago.

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