Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact

METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 18.12.2020 14:16
In the first part of our research, we highlighted our broad market super-cycle trend analysis.  This analysis suggests the global markets are shifting away from a stock market appreciation phase into a depreciation phase.  This shift will likely prompt a new commodities sector appreciation phase to begin fairly quickly.If you remember how Gold started to move higher in 2003~04 after reaching low price levels in 2001?  My research team and I believe a 9 to 9.5 year appreciation/depreciation cycle takes place in stocks and commodities, and the relationship between the two is inverted.  For example, the bottom in Gold which took place in 2001 also aligned with the end of a US stock market appreciation cycle that started in 1992.  The rally in Gold after 2001 was directly inverted to the new depreciation cycle in the US stock market at that time.  Let's review these past long-term Appreciation/Depreciation cycles:Long-Term Appreciation/Depreciation Cycle PhasesCycle Year StartStock MarketUS DollarPrecious Metals1983DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation1992AppreciationAppreciationDepreciation2001DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation2010AppreciationAppreciationDepreciation2019DepreciationDepreciationAppreciation2027 (proposed)AppreciationAppreciationDepreciationIf our research is correct, the current Depreciation phase has just started and we are experiencing an “excess phase” (blow-off) top formation in the US and Global stock markets.  This longer-term cycle phase chart (below) helps to illustrate how these cycles work.  Even though some of you may be able to find areas on this chart where the US Stock market did not decline within a depreciation phase, watch how the US Dollar and Gold reacted throughout these phases as well.  It is critical to understand that each of these assets can, and often do, engage in counter-trend phases (at times) when shifts in phase dynamics are more evident.  For example, the peak in the US stock market in 2000 was an example of how the US stock market reacted to a pending phase shift before Gold and the US Dollar began to react efficiently to this phase shift.Notice how we've also drawn the current and next phase of the markets highlighting target ranges out to 2036 and beyond. We suggest taking a minute to read some of our earlier research posts related to these cycle phases so you can better understand how to prepare for the big trends.Junior Gold Miners Should Rally In Legs – Targeting $95 or higherOur research team believes the end of the current stock market excess phase will happen sometime in early-to-mid 2021.  The end of this phase will usher in a new phase of capital deployment where investors seek out undervalued assets and hedge risk in the global markets.  Just like what happened after the bottom of the global markets after the 2009-10 credit market crash, it took nearly 2+ years for the markets (including precious metals) to come to the realization that a new stock market appreciation phase had setup.  This took place from 2012 to 2013.  After that shift in thinking took place, investors moved capital into the US stock market and away from hedge assets which resulted in a very strong upward price trend reaching the peak levels we see today.Our researchers believe the appreciation phase ended in 2019 and we are currently experiencing the same type of “excess phase” (blow-off top) that took place in precious metals in 2012~2013.  The end phase rotation of assets chasing a potentially weakening trend in the global stock market.  When and IF this excess phase ends, commodities and precious metals should really begin to skyrocket higher. Junior miners, seen in this GDXJ chart below, should begin to move higher in advancing legs.  We've drawn these legs on the chart (below) as arrows – showing you how price may advance in the future.  Each advancing leg will “reset” after a brief pause/pullback, then another advancing leg will begin.  Remember, this is a longer-term appreciation phase in commodities and metals that should last through 2026~2027 (or longer).Junior Silver Miners Should Also Rally In LegsJunior Silver Miners, SILJ, should begin to advance to levels near $21, then stall for a few days/weeks, then attempt to advance to levels above $28~$30 if our research is correct.  This advance in the Junior Silver miners will not likely peak near $30 though. This rally in metals, miners, and other commodities may last well beyond 2026~27 based on our research.  This type of trend could really turn into a life-changing appreciation/depreciation phase for traders.It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders and investors alike.  We deliver these free research articles to highlight our skills and technology solutions which help you stay ahead of market trends.  Our long-term cycle analysis can help long-term investors stay ahead of the pack, and give traders an edge by identifyingthe Best Assets Now to hold and trade. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you protect and grow your investment and trading accounts.
METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART I

METALS/MINERS SHIFTING GEARS – ARE YOU READY FOR WHAT'S NEXT? - PART I

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.12.2020 20:34
The recent bottom in Metals/Miners has everyone excited to see what this next upside price leg is capable of achieving.  The extended Pennant/Flag formation that setup a peak in August 2020 has nearly reached the Apex.  The upside move in Gold and Silver, as well as Junior Miner ETFs, over the past few weeks suggests a new upside price trend is setting up.  The concept that commodities and metals are very new to historically low price levels sets up expectations that a longer-term price advance could send Gold above $3750 and send Silver above $50 as expectations adjust to the new price cycles.WHERE ARE WE IN THE COMMODITY/METALS CYCLE?Some of my team’s recent research has highlighted our belief that we are just starting a Depreciation cycle for the US/Global stock market which aligns with the historic lows for Commodities/Metals. Take a look at our analysis of the Gold and the US$ cycle, Gold and the SPY and QQQ, and our price targets for Gold using our proprietary ADL tool for some additional background.Using our proprietary price modeling and Adaptive Learning technology, we’ve identified a broad market cycle that lasts between 9 to 9.5 years (on average) and we believe a US stock market appreciation phase ended in 2018~2019.  We feel the current rally in the US stock market is an “excess phase” (blow off top) rally that may extend well into early 2021 before suddenly shaking out the hype.  This same type of enthusiasm is taking place across the globe and in various classes of assets (Cryptos, various market sectors, Metals and Essential Minerals, and others).  The US Fed, and global central banks, are fueling the rally with easy monetary policies – attempting to keep the party going.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next research report!We suggest traders watch how hedging instruments react to this excess phase over the next 12 to 24 months.  When precious metals, miners and Cryptos (which have now become a new hedging instrument) begin to rally when the US stock market is flat or devaluing – then we may be very close to the end of the excess phase.BLOOMBERG COMMODITIES INDEX BOTTOMThese long-term Bloomberg Commodities Index and Silver to M2Money Supply charts highlight the extended downtrend in commodities over the past 12 years.  Interestingly, this decline in the Commodities Index,hart below, aligns with our longer term Appreciation phase in the US stock market from 2009 to 2018~19. Source : www.Bloomberg.comThe deep lows of the COVID-19 market collapse may have setup a major bottom in the Commodities Index going forward.  If our research is correct, commodities should start a major upward price trend which lasts for 5 to 7 more years.  We have highlighted a mean price range (in RED) from the 2009 to 2013 area suggesting commodity prices could recover to this level fairly quickly in a new Appreciation phase.BLOOMBERG SILVER TO MONEY SUPPLY RATIOThe following Silver to Money Supply Ratio chart highlights how inexpensive Silver is in comparison to historical values.  Even though Silver is trading near $26 per ounce right now, historical mean levels in Appreciation phases suggest Silver could rally 200% to 300% (or more) from these lows.  We’ve highlighted an area in RED on this chart showing a moderate mean average of the last Appreciation phase (2004 through 2011).  www.Bloomberg.comIn the second part of this research article, we’ll go over the setups in various Gold and Silver miner charts that may represent an incredible opportunity for traders.  If you understand the scope and consequences of these broad market cycles, the Appreciation/Deprecation cycles, and what this means for commodities, metals, miners and other assets, then you will quickly understand we are in the midst of a shift in these cycles.  We must prepare for what is next so we can adapt our trading style to profit from these new big trends.Take a minute or two to read the other research articles I’ve linked to at the start of this article.  It is important that you understand the longer-term cycles that are unfolding and how these cycles present very real opportunities for traders.  Then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy where we identify the best ETFs and other assets in any market trend.  BAN allows us to quickly identify when and how to invest our capital in top performing asset classes. Trading the hottest sectoral ETFs helps us beat market returns without having to scan and pick from thousands of stocks.Happy Trading!
Asia Morning Bites: Trade Data from Australia, Taiwan Inflation, and US Fed Minutes Highlighted

Nasdaq Hits Yet Another Record Close

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.12.2020 18:23
The major indices closed mixed on Wednesday (Dec. 16), as the Nasdaq hit yet another record close amidst stimulus optimism and the Fed’s dovish tone.News RecapAlthough the Dow Jones closed lower by 44.77 points, or 0.15%, the S&P 500 gained for the second day in a row and rose by 0.18%. The Nasdaq closed once again at a record high and gained 0.5%.Sentiment for the day started negatively after the Commerce Department reported a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales. The department stated that retail sales fell by 1.1% in November compared to estimates of 0.3%.Cautious optimism that some sort of stimulus could be passed before the end of the year encouraged investors.According to Politico , Congress was on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal that would include a new round of direct payments to consumers. However, that package would exclude the more contentious areas of liability shields for businesses and state and local aid.We have reached the deadliest weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 300,000 total COVID-19 related deaths have now been confirmed in the U.S., with over 16 million confirmed cases. Additionally, US officials reported 3,400 new COVID-19 deaths - a daily record.After an FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna (MRNA) - following a review which confirmed safety and efficacy earlier in the week – the big day is finally here. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the FDA will officially vote on Moderna's vaccine. This will strongly complement the mass deployment of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech’s (BNTX) vaccine.The Federal Reserve ’s announcement on monetary policy was largely as dovish as expected. The Fed vowed to continue its asset purchase program at the current rate, “until substantial further progress has been made toward the committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.”Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) led the Dow with gains of 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while Walgreens (WBA) was the laggard and declined 2.15%.Moderna (MRNA), despite its big week ahead, dropped 6.9%.While there is some short-term uncertainty and mixed sentiment, there is some general consensus: While the short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment, it may be worth it for the medium-term and long-term optimism.The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021- despite near-term risks. Outside of the pandemic raging to out of control levels, another near-term risk that has been largely overlooked is the Senate runoff election in Georgia. Investors have largely already priced in a divided government - however, if Republicans end up losing both seats in Georgia, this could potentially upend everything.According to Jimmy Lee, CEO of the Wealth Consulting Group ,“I think that we can get a little bit of consolidation before year-end just due to normal selling at the year-end for rebalancing or tax loss harvesting. Also, depending on where the pulse is for the Senate race in Georgia, investors might want to get ahead of that if they think that capital gains taxes may go up in the future...So that could cause some additional selling before year-end and we could get a little bit of a pullback. But I am very bullish on equities at this point. And I do think we may get a little bit more of a rotation into the economy-opening sectors.”Meanwhile, progress on the stimulus package appears to be more optimistic than many expected in the near-term.“The odds of a fiscal deal before year’s end have been improving,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Tuesday (Dec. 15). “While we had expected a smaller package to pass now with a larger package waiting until early 2021, it appears increasingly likely that most of this could pass this week.”While markets for the rest of 2020 (and perhaps early 2021), will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound, the general consensus appears to be looking past the short-term painful realities, and focusing more on the longer-term - a world where COVID-19 is expected to be a thing of the past and we are back to normal.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 16) (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. Therefore, it is truly hard to say with conviction what will happen with markets in the next 1-3 months. However, if a stimulus deal passes within the next week, it could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed to the general public, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty whether another crash or bear market will come.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Nasdaq Hits Another Record Close - Too Good to Be True?Is the Nasdaq’s performance since its sharp sell-off last Wednesday (Dec. 9) too good to be true? Truthfully, I don’t know. But it’s very possible - especially if shut down measurements become harsher and stricter and investors return to the “stay-at-home” trade that led markets from April through the end of October.Additionally, I still have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. Last week’s IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this and invoke traumatic memories of the dotcom bubble era. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of last Wednesday (Dec. 9) could inevitably come in the short-term. Frankly, it would make me feel far more confident about initiating tech positions as well for the long-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. Last Wednesday’s (Dec. 9th) Nasdaq pullback after it exceeded a 70 RSI reflects that.The Nasdaq has sharply rallied in the week since then. But its RSI is nearly 69. Monitor this . If the index goes on another bull-run and hits more record closes, it could surely exceed an RSI of 70 by the end of market close on Thursday (Dec. 17). I did not make a conviction call last week but I will now- if the RSI exceeds 70 this time, take profits- but don’t fully exit .One thing I do like is how stable the volume has been this week and since the sharp sell-off last week. Stable volume is a good thing, especially if one is concerned about volatility. Low volume, especially a declining trend, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.On pessimistic days, having NASDAQ exposure is crucial because of all the “stay-at-home” trade. However, positive vaccine-related news always induces the risk of downward pressure on tech names - both on and off the NASDAQ. What concerns me most are sharp sell-offs due to overheating and mania. Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets.It is very hard to say with conviction to sell your tech shares though. However, as I said before - if the RSI exceeds 70 again - consider selling some shares and taking profits. For now, however, the NASDAQ stays a HOLD .For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Asia Morning Bites: Singapore Industrial Production and Global Market Updates

The Watchlist: Analysis Of Forex Flows

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 17.12.2020 02:02
Daily EdgeIn the last 24h, since I last sat down to write my take-away in the marketplace, the level of flow imbalances in the Forex market has gone down a notch. The Sterling takes the podium once again as the best performing currency even if the gap opened up against the G8 FX peers was minimal. The CAD, meanwhile, is the exception with sellers overwhelmingly in charge.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. In terms of the fundamental drivers playing a role in the last movements seen, this is what the script looked like. Early in Asia, the New Zealand Dollar was pressured lower in a move that dragged on through the London session. This occurred despite the release of the half-yearly update from the NZ Treasury saw GDP forecasts boosted and that for the peak unemployment rate lowered.As Europe came online, we learned some encouraging news out of Europe, with the positive French and German PMI prints for December. The Euro and the Swiss Franc, which often move in lockstep, reaped the most benefits as algo-buying activity followed suit in the immediate aftermath. However, we failed to see follow-through demand.The bullish moves in the EUR or the CHF proved legless, and certainly didn’t dispute the dominance of the Pound since early this week as hopes of a trade deal have definitively been brought back to be the forefront as the default narrative the market is buying into. Negotiations between the EU and the UK will likely stretch into the weekend again.Lastly, the one even we were all waiting for, even if the chances to see sustained volatility were pretty slim, came in the form of the FOMC. After all said and done, it proved to be a rather muffled affair. The lack of any new action from the FOMC was well reflected in how the market reacted. After an initial knee-jerk response in the US dollar, vol ended up being short-lived and legless. Fed’s Chairman Powell reiterated for the zillionth time that the Central Bank will remain in hyper-dovish mode with no rush whatsoever to raise rates.When it comes to trading opportunities, there was a phenomenal TT structure to play long CHF/JPY in Europe that ended up being a scratch trade. As I shift gears to the merits of a few selected currency pairs that currently offer for the best contextual settings to find opportunities, the video below invites you into my thoughts of the market for today.Analysis of the Forex trendsIn my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.Holding trades overnight? Check out Global Prime swap rates.
Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors: Key Challenges and Pathways Forward

Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show – Part II

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 16.12.2020 18:20
In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline.  We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline.  Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market.  This past research article - How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II - is an excellent review item for today's Part II conclusion to our current article. Custom Metals Index Channels & TrendsOur Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals.  If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” - where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so.  This half-cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse.Recently, the upside price trend on this Custom Metals index page suggests a price channel has setup and may continue.  The recent pullback in price has just recently touched the lower price channel and started to stall near these lows.  If precious metals prices resume any upward price trends after reaching these lows, the technical pattern will stay valid and we believe Gold will attempt to rally above $2350 to $2500 in this next leg higher.  Longer-term, we feel it us just a matter of time before precious metals begin another breakout rally.Longer-term Cycle Phases – Why They Are ImportantLastly, we want to leave you with the following longer-term market cycle chart showing the US Dollar, the SPX500 and GOLD.  We know this chart is a bit complicated and cluttered, but we'll try to highlight the key elements for you to understand.  First, look for the rallies and declines in the US Dollar Index in alignment with the “Appreciation” and “Depreciation” phases.  Remember, the left and right edges of this chart are in a “Depreciation” phase thus, the dramatic selloff in the US Dollar index on the left edge of this chart took place near the beginning of a Depreciation Phase.  The rally in the US Dollar Index from 1992 to 2000 took place in an Appreciation Phase.  Currently, we believe we have ended an Appreciation Phase and started a new Depreciation phase in the markets.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!Now, take a look at the SPX500 line on this chart.  Notice how bigger rallies take place in Appreciation phases and sideways trending (with massive volatility) take place in Depreciation phases?  The last Appreciation Phase started in 2010~11 (or so) and ended in 2018~19 (or so).  If our research is correct, this new Depreciation phase will last until 2027~28 (or so) and may prompt a very big volatility cycle in the US Dollar and the US/Global stock markets.Now, pay attention to how Gold setup a major bottom in late 2015 (mid-cycle phase).  Could this be an indication that precious metals reacted to the peak in the US Dollar index rally phase early 2015 and subsequent peak in the US Dollar in December 2016 (remember, that date was just after a major US election)?  Could the early phase rally in precious metals be warning us that another 600%+  rally in precious metals (just like what happened from 2000 to 2011) take place from the 2015 Gold lows near $1080?  If so, does this mean the ultimate upside price target for Gold is some where above $6,800?If our research is correct, the longer term rotations in the global markets aligned with these major market phases will mean traders will have to learn to identify and trade the best performing assets at all times.  The shifts in how assets and sectors are valued will continue to roll in and out of favor as capital moves from one sector to another.  Precious metals and the US Dollar are just one component of the broader markets – there are hundreds of sector ETFs  and thousands of individual stock symbols to select from.  Skilled traders need to know when sectors perform the best and which asset classes/symbols are poised for the best returns – that is the only way to really try to beat the markets over the next 9+ years.Precious metals should continue to find support and attempt to rally higher if our longer-term research is accurate, but skilled technical traders know we can't simply rely on precious metals over the next 8+ years – we need more diversity and we need to protect our trading capital from losses.  The only way to do that is to learn how to spot the best performing assets and to stay ahead of emerging trends.  Get ready, the next few years are certainly going to be interesting and full of opportunities.We publish this free research to help you stay ahead of broad market trends and to illustrate how we apply our technical analysis skills in helping you find and trade the best performing assets. We are proud of the research we deliver to you fro FREE, but if you want to profit from our knowledge then go to www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about our BAN trading and review an example of my daily pre-market reports. Please take a minute to visit our web site to see how we can help you survive and prosper from these big future trends.Happy Trading!
US Industry Shows Strength as Inflation Expectations Decline

Stocks Surge on Stimulus Hopes

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 17:48
Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday (Dec. 15) as optimism grew that Congress could pass another economic stimulus package before year’s end.News RecapThe Dow Jones gained 337.76 points, or 1.1%, and closed at 30,199.31. The S&P 500 also gained 1.3% and snapped a four-day losing streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and reached a new record closing high of 12,595.06. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 2.40%.In the strongest indication yet that we may be coming closer to a stimulus agreement, the top four congressional leaders-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - all were set to meet after market close on Tuesday (Dec. 15).Democrats and Republicans still remain deeply divided on certain matters, but a two-part bipartisan stimulus plan proposed on Tuesday (Dec. 15) has a chance of passing.The stimulus package would provide around $908 billion in total aid. The first part would be a $748 billion stimulus package that includes an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits and another $300 billion for more PPP loans. This segment would also include money for vaccine distribution, education, and rental assistance. The second segment would be a $160 billion aid package and cover the more partisan issues of business liability protections and financial aid to state and local governments.The first round of shots from the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech were given in the U.S. on Monday (Dec. 14) with further distributions occurring Tuesday (Dec. 15).FDA staff announced that they endorsed emergency usage of Moderna’s vaccine. The FDA’s vaccine advisory panel will meet Thursday (Dec. 16) to decide whether to recommend clearance for emergency use. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer doses already in distribution.Apple led the Dow higher, jumping 5% after Nikkei reported that the company will increase iPhone production by about 30% in the first half of 2021.All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained on Tuesday (Dec. 15) and were led by energy and utilities.We are approaching the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic yet. 300,000 people across the country have now lost their lives to the disease. However, the worst may not be over yet. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.The short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment due to two major catalysts - the lack of stimulus and an out-of-control virus.According to Art Hogan , chief market strategist at National Securities:“There’s been a tug of war between the vaccine news and the virus news. The only tiebreaker that’s kept the averages on their way higher seems to be the potential for getting stimulus out of gridlock...It certainly feels like one of the proposals that’s on the table ... can go through.”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before a mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”On the other hand, the mid-term and long-term optimism is very real. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain, and focus on the longer-term gains.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, like Monday (Dec. 14), the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, like Tuesday (Dec. 15), there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. On other days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty.However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly a challenge to predict the future with certainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingEnergy (XLE)Energy is a sector largely dependent on sentiment, with several question marks.On one hand, if you are bullish, all of this vaccine news bodes well for a full economic reopening by the second half of 2021. That means travel, and therefore fuel demand, could surge back to pre-pandemic levels. WTI crude futures on Tuesday (Dec. 15) extended gains to trade around 1% higher at $47.5 a barrel due to cautious optimism on further US stimulus in addition to the vaccine(s).On the other hand, there are very real short-term concerns. There are fresh concerns over global fuel demand as countries, states, and cities across the world tighten coronavirus restrictions. Germany and the Netherlands will enter a new lockdown, while the UK government imposed tighter Covid-19 measures on London. In New York City, Mayor Bill De Blasio warned that the city is on the path towards a second full shutdown. Governor Andrew Cuomo already banned all indoor dining. The newly inaugurated Mayor of Baltimore, Brandon Scott, also banned all dining - both indoor and outdoor. OPEC also lowered its projections for global fuel consumption in Q1 2021 by 1 million barrels a day as well. The organization will meet on January 4th to evaluate if they can move on with supply increases. Much anticipated data from the EIA is also due on Wednesday.This is such an unpredictable sector experiencing great volatility. It is almost as if energy is either the S&P 500’s leader or its laggard. There is never anything in between. These are simply risky and major percentage swings on a day-to-day basis.It is a very difficult sector to make a bullish call on. There are still simply too many headwinds to be overly euphoric. While energy is still largely undervalued, and the RSI is no longer overbought, the volume is not stable. Most importantly, nobody truly knows what oil’s long-term prospects are, with the increased adoption of renewable energy and ESG investing.This year we have seen that when energy rallies, it eventually pulls back. Judging from the chart, that inevitable pullback could possibly come again. For the month of December, the ETF is up nearly 8%. But I would be more confident in either calling BUY or HOLD or a pullback - not during such a volatile time.While there is vaccine optimism now that there wasn’t before, conditions are largely the same on the ground with regard to COVID-19 and travel demand. Therefore, my call is to take profits and SELL. DivingCommunication Services (XLC)I really don’t like this sector and I will explain why. Although the Communication Services ETF touched a 52-week high recently, the gains have not been as stable or as robust compared to other sectors. But this is generally par the course for communications stocks. This is a sector that continuously underperforms other sectors both in the short-term and long-term.While traditionally this is a good sector to find value in, right now I just don’t see it. I see downside risk without the same type of upside potential as exists in other sectors that may benefit more from a successful vaccine roll-out and economic reopening.Furthermore, the ETF’s volume is already low, and has been in decline. This screams volatility to me.I just can’t see how you would benefit buying into this sector. It is hard to foresee how this sector will truly benefit from a vaccine and 2021 reopening relative to other sectors. Therefore, I give it a SELL call.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Deceptive Rally? Measuring Silver’s Relative Strength

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 17:43
It’s tempting to ride the silver rollercoaster. After-all, gold’s volatile little brother is just that – volatile. Its wilder price swings make some of the investment public believe they can profit from it more quickly. However, it’s important to remember and take note of the fact that silver (or gold and miners for that matter) should not be judged on its own when making a purchasing decision. It’s a bit more complicated and other factors come into play, such as relative strength.One must track the precious metals’ performance against equities or the USD Index. Asking questions is prudent; how is silver doing compared to gold, and why? The USDX is moving lower but the PMs are not rallying? Hmmm, is there enough strength for them to break out? Silver or gold don’t exist in a vacuum. Instead, their performance has to be judged relative to other factors.The white metal closed yesterday’s (Dec. 15) session right at its declining resistance line. It moved sharply higher today, soaring above both: its declining resistance line and its December high.This is exactly what silver tends to do right before significant declines – it’s exceptionally strong – more than gold and mining stocks. Why would this be the case? Because silver is a relatively thin market, where many institutional investors can’t go as there’s not enough silver for them. The “big players” generally go for gold, and silver is favored by the investment public. The silver manipulation theories are making the demand among the investment public even stronger, and the investment public (as a general group, not any individual person) tends to enter the market close to the tops.The above-mentioned factors – along with the relatively small size of the silver market – make the white metal perform very well (too well) near the local tops. Of course, this doesn’t work each and every time, just like any other trading technique, and one should also look for additional confirmations before making a trade (like weak miners , which tend to react differently than silver).It does imply, however, that it’s best not to take silver’s strength at its face value, and definitely not to view it as bullish unless it’s confirmed by the rest of the precious metals sector. Today’s breakout in silver and lack thereof in gold is not a bullish development, but a bearish one.Moving on to the performance of the mining stocks, let’s take a look at the chart below.The GDX ETF – proxy for precious metals mining stocks – moved higher yesterday, more than nullifying the previous day’s decline. But, overall, was it really strong? Absolutely not. In today’s trading on the London Stock Exchange, the GDX is up only a bit above Tuesday’s intraday highs, and it corrected only a bit more than a half of the December decline.Simply put:Gold is relatively weak compared to what’s happening in the USD IndexSilver is relatively strong to gold and breaking above the previous resistance levels without confirmations from neither gold, nor mining stocksGold and silver mining stocks are weak compared to what’s happening in goldThe above is a perfectly bearish combination on the relative strength front. Combining this with USDX’s proximity to its target area makes the overall implications for the precious metals market very bearish.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the downside target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks.If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
California Leads the Way: New Climate Disclosure Laws Set the Standard for Sustainability Reporting

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 16 – Dec. 22, 2020

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 16.12.2020 14:19
Header: Which stocks could magnify S&P 500’s gains in case it rallies? Take a look at a part of our Stock Pick Update. We have included two Energy stocks and one Financials stock again. In the last five trading days (December 9 – December 15) the broad stock market has been trading within a short-term consolidation following its recent record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index has reached new record high of 3,712.39 a week ago on Wednesday. Then it retraced some of the advance before going back up on Monday-Tuesday this week.The S&P 500 index has lost 0.31% between December 9 open and December 15 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have gained 1.32%. Stock picks were relatively much stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have gained 0.91% and short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 1.73%. So short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside.There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.Our last week’s portfolio result:Long Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): XOM (+0.77%), EOG (+0.62%), PGR (+4.73%), BK (+0.51%), MMM (-2.10%)Short Picks (December 9 open – December 15 close % change): LNT (-0.81%), CNP (-1.64%), ABBV (-4.28%), DHR (-0.16%), APTV (-1.75%)Average long result: +0.91%, average short result: +1.73%Total profit (average): +1.32%Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 16 – Tuesday, December 22 period.We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 16) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 22).We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:buys: 2 x Energy, 2 x Financials, 1 x Communication Servicessells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer StaplesBuy CandidatesXOM Exxon Mobil Corp. - EnergyStock broke above its short-term downward trend line, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $40 and resistance level is at $44-47 (short-term target profit level)COP ConocoPhillips – EnergyPossible short-term bull flag pattern, uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $42 and resistance level is at $45-50WFC Wells Fargo & Co. – FinancialsPossible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation playThe support level is at $29.50 and resistance level is at $30.00Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Energy and Financials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .Thank you.Paul RejczakStock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *DisclaimerAll essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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