FX Pairs With AUD May Be Volatile Next Week. What Are Possible Scenarios For RBA's Decision?

FX Pairs With AUD May Be Volatile Next Week. What Are Possible Scenarios For RBA's Decision?

ING Economics ING Economics 01.07.2022 16:49
Several Asian economies report inflation next week while the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss policy In this article Inflation reports from regional players RBA meeting China GIR and services PMI And the rest.. Source: Shutterstock      Inflation reports from regional players The coming week features several inflation gauges from the region with price pressures generally trending higher. Taiwan’s inflation is expected to rise due to higher energy prices and a low base effect from last year. Philippine inflation will likewise head higher, accelerating to 6.0% from 5.4% year-on-year last May. Pricier food, transport and utilities are all likely to drive up headline inflation, which should pressure the central bank to double down on rate hikes at the August meeting.  Meanwhile, Korea’s consumer price index for June is also moving higher, likely hitting 6.0% YoY with gasoline and manufactured food prices up sharply. If inflation settles higher than 6.0% in June, the Bank of Korea will take a big step in terms of tightening at the July meeting. RBA meeting It is pretty clear that despite being a little slow to pick up the inflation threat, the RBA is now fully on board with its determination to bring inflation down. Rates are going up. The only question is, how fast? Well, we haven’t had any particularly helpful data since the last meeting. We don’t for example have any further inflation data to react to, though Melbourne Institute inflation expectations did move sharply higher. The lack of new hard data is probably why Governor Philip Lowe ruled out a 75bp hike when asked earlier this month. The choice is therefore between 25bp and 50bp. What may tip the balance in favour of the bigger hike is how far the RBA needs to go in order to get rates even to neutral. That suggests not hanging about. They can step up the pace if needed once they have sight of the 2Q inflation print. So it's 50bp now, and 75bp in September, if the inflation data paints an ugly enough picture. If not, they can ease back a bit and revert to 25bp or 50bp hikes.  China GIR and services PMI Over in China, Caixin services PMI should settle below 50, suggesting overall activity is in contraction. However, with lockdowns easing gradually, the contraction may show a slight improvement from the previous month. An additional data report from China in the coming week is the level of foreign reserves, with GIR likely increasing due to capital inflows to the stock market since mid-June. And the rest.. Meanwhile, Taiwan trade data is also out in the coming days with both imports and exports expected to grow around 20% YoY from demand for semiconductors. Exports may grow slower than imports however with the trade surplus narrowing from the previous month.  Lastly, Singapore retail sales likely expanded but at a more moderate pace, slowing to 8.5% from 12.1% previously as higher prices sap some spending momentum.  Asia Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsEmerging Markets Asia week ahead Asia Pacific Asia Markets   Source: Asia week ahead: Inflation reports and the RBA meeting on the calendar | Article | ING Think   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) News and Forecast: First half bad, second half...?

S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) News and Forecast: First half bad, second half...?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.07.2022 16:41
S&P 500 closes down again on Thursday by 0.88%.SPY falls 20% in the first half of the year.Bonds also fall in the first half, making it a terrible year for asset portfolios.The S&P 500 or SPY ETF closed out the half-year in a subdued fashion on Thursday as the anticipated repositioning did not materialize. Long-only investors and mutual funds opted to remain underweight equities. July is historically one of the better months for S&P 500 performance and is the best performing month historically in the third quarter. S&P 500 SPY stock newsAs we can see, this half of the year has been a terrible one for stock and bond portfolios. The Fed has been behind the raging inflation curve and has pivoted way too late to a hawkish policy.Now financial markets are betting on recession, and the latest GDPNOW figure from the Atlanta Fed is not exactly comforting. It is showing expected Q2 GDP falling 1%.Source:atlantafed.orgThe bond market as mentioned is convinced the Fed is hiking into a recession and has been pricing rate cuts for early 2023. Given that the Fed is late to the party, we see that as highly unlikely. They always over-hike and then over-cut. They have largely moved inflation from transitory by their policies and are now likely to engineer a deep recession by hiking for too long. All this means of course that equities and risk assets will again find H2 to be a tough ask. S&P 500 (SPY) stock forecastWe do not expect a huge amount of volatility now as we enter earnings season. We expect this earnings season to be when the penny drops with Wall Street analysts as EPS forecasts will be cut and the S&P 500 will naturally then edge lower. Remember macroeconomics impacts EPS which in turn impacts stock prices. Macro remains poor in most regions and the global economy is slowing markedly. International trade is more expensive, there are more barriers to trade, and energy costs are pricing sticky.Corporate earnings in the US will also be hit by conversion charges of overseas currency earnings into a strong US dollar. There is a strong correlation between lower earnings for corporate America and a strong dollar.Still, SPY has a gap to be filled from $395 to $401. Resistance above is $415 which is key. SPY stock chart, daily
Three factors behind Shiba Inu price that can trigger an important movement

Three factors behind Shiba Inu price that can trigger an important movement

FXStreet News FXStreet News 01.07.2022 16:41
Shiba Inu price posted nearly 5% gains overnight, and started recovery despite crypto bloodbath. Shiba Inu network activity exploded with a 35% increase over the past week. 23.4 million Shiba Inu coins were burnt in three transactions on June 30, fueling a bullish sentiment in the ShibArmy. Shiba Inu price is starting a recovery while the rest of the crypto ecosystem is soaked in a bloodbath. There is a spike in network activity in Shiba-Inu-themed cryptocurrencies Shiba Inu and Dogecoin. ShibArmy is awaiting a massive surge in Shiba Inu price as burn continues. Shiba Inu price rallies as network activity explodes Shiba Inu price is rising as along with competitor Dogecoin it is observing a notable increase in network activity. Based on data from crypto intelligence platform Santiment, over the past ten days, network interaction among Shiba Inu and Dogecoin holders increased 35% and 32% respectively. Shiba Inu network activity At a time when most cryptocurrencies have witnessed a decline in their prices, investors poured capital into the Shiba Inu ecosystem. A surge in network activity is indicative of rising interest in ShibArmy members and investors, fueling a bullish sentiment among traders. Experts believe increased transaction activity could be a temporary setup for a Shiba Inu price rally. The recent liquidity crises post the collapse of Terra LUNA and Three Arrows Capital triggered a slump in cryptocurrencies. 23 million Shiba Inu coins were destroyed in three transactions Shibburn portal reveals that 23.4 million Shiba Inu coins were burned in three recent transactions. In the past 24 hours 357.6 million Shiba Inu tokens were destroyed and the burn rate climbed 119% overnight. The rapid burn of Shiba Inu has pulled trillions of tokens out of circulation and contributed to the rise in value of the remaining 557.9 trillion Shiba Inu coins currently in circulation – over 41% have been permanently removed from the Dogecoin-killer’s supply. Shiba Inu circulating supply Shiba Inu social dominance on the rise In addition to the rising network activity, Shiba Inu coin has witnessed a spike in its social dominance. Based on data from crypto intelligence platform Santiment, social dominance is a metric that equalizes whether the cryptocurrency is being discussed during a hyped time or whether it is being discussed during a less specific time of the day. The social dominance for Shiba Inu recently witnessed a massive spike and this coincides with the recovery in Shiba Inu price. Shiba Inu social dominance Constant engagement of investors in Shiba Inu across social media platforms is a key reason for a Shiba Inu price recovery. Shiba Inu leads the pack on Coinbase Among cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase’s platform, Shiba Inu ranks among the three cryptos trading at a price higher than their listing price. Shiba Inu price started recovery in the bear market while Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continued to plummet. Most cryptocurrencies in the top 30 by market capitalization have bled and struggled to recover, while Shiba Inu price is making a comeback. Despite being removed from Crypto.com’s Earn program, and other similar setbacks, Shiba Inu price has witnessed a trend reversal. While Crypto.com pulled Shiba Inu out of the list of assets supported for rewards on Crypto Earn, Coinbase Commerce added the meme coin to its platform for instant and free payment settlements to merchants. Shibarium launch draws close Shiba Inu’s layer-2 solution Shibarium is set to release beta phase as early as Q3 2022. Based on the announcement of developers at the Unification Foundation, Shibarium’s beta version could see the light of the day soon. Shibarium and Shiba Games are the two releases planned for the Shiba Inu ecosystem in 2022. Experts believe that the launch of Shibarium could contribute to the recovery of Shiba Inu coin. Unification informed the ShibArmy that the Shibarium Alpha TestNet has been successfully running for a number of weeks and is allowing developers to create the necessary support tools prior to the public Beta TestNet deployment. The primary tool under heavy development is the wallet application, which will also be deployed on L2. Shibarium is being built on and improving well established, battle-tested and robust technology with xFUND, and particularly Oracle of Oracles (OoO). Oracle of Oracles will play a key role in the ecosystem as an Automated Market Maker (AMM). The Shibarium Public Beta TestNet is planned for deployment in Q3 and it will allow parties to fully interact with the network, including the validation process. Shiba Inu price is ready for recovery Analysts at FXStreet have evaluated the Shiba Inu price trend and predicted that after facing headwinds and a brief period of consolidation, SHIB is ready for another leg-up. Shiba Inu price could embark on a 15% rally from its current level and hit its targets of $0.0000119 and $0.0000130. Further uptrend continuation could push Shiba Inu price to retest the $0.0000139 hurdle, the short-term local top for the Dogecoin-killer. Shiba Inu perpetual futures FXStreet analysts believe Shiba Inu’s competitor Dogecoin is primed for a massive rally. For more information and key price levels to watch out for, check this video:
Will Turkish Inflation Increase? What's Expected National Bank's Of Poland (NBP) Decision And What Could Harm PLN (Polish Zloty)?

Will Turkish Inflation Increase? What's Expected National Bank's Of Poland (NBP) Decision And What Could Harm PLN (Polish Zloty)?

ING Economics ING Economics 01.07.2022 16:26
In Turkey, we expect annual inflation to further increase next week, while Poland's central bank is expected to deliver a 75bp rate hike amid ongoing inflationary risks In this article Hungry: Higher than historical average price increase Turkey: Further increase in annual inflation Poland: Upcoming central bank decision on rates Source: Shutterstock      Hungry: Higher than historical average price increase Next week will be quite dense in terms of data from Hungary. We expect some further slowdown both in retail sales and industrial production on a monthly basis in May. This would be in line with the latest changes in soft indicators. However, the year-on-year indices will be significantly skewed by base effects. Nonetheless, we don’t see any reason to worry about our above 5% 2022 GDP forecast. What will be even more important than the economic activity is the June inflation print. After causing a huge upside surprise in the previous month, we expect some slowdown in the monthly inflation reading. Yet, the 1.3% month-on-month price increase will be much higher than the historical average, showing the impact of rising producer prices, booming wages, and the high pricing power of companies. On a yearly basis, this will translate into an 11.5% headline figure, while core inflation is expected to be just shy of the 13% mark (as the majority of the price caps are effective in the non-core basket). Last but not least, we see the budget balance showing further deterioration due to seasonal patterns and the country’s rising energy bill. Turkey: Further increase in annual inflation We expect annual inflation for June to further increase to 78.3% (4.8% on monthly basis) from 73.5% in May, driven by food and transportation prices, while pricing pressures will likely remain broad-based with a largely supportive policy framework leading to currency weakness, and external factors weighing on import prices. Poland: Upcoming central bank decision on rates In May, National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam GlapiÅ„ski suggested that monetary tightening is coming to an end, and conditions for rate cuts could arise already in 2023, yet price developments (CPI above 15%YoY in June) and inflationary risks call for another rate hike this month. What's more, the external environment leaves little room for doubts about the need to continue tightening. In June, the Czech National Bank hiked rates by 125bp and the Hungarian National Bank by 185bp, so the NBP is lagging behind with respect to the level of policy rate. Therefore, we expect the monetary policy council to deliver a 75bp rate hike, however markets may bet on an even more decisive policy move. Anything less than 75bp would lead to Polish zÅ‚oty weakening. EMEA Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsTurkey Poland National Bank Hungary EMEA   Source: Key events in EMEA next week | Article | ING Think
CD PROJEKT RED Turns 20 Years Old!

CD PROJEKT RED Turns 20 Years Old!

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.07.2022 16:15
On July 1st, 2022, CD PROJEKT RED celebrates its 20th anniversary, marking two decades since the studio entered the video game development scene and began work on the first entry into The Witcher series of games. After seeing success in the realms of video game distribution and localization, CD PROJEKT turned its attention to the development of its own game which led to the creation of CD PROJEKT RED, a video game development studio, and official announcement of that fact on July 1st, 2002. In the twenty years since, CD PROJEKT RED has become a global industry name. The Witcher series of games — highlighted by 2015's critically acclaimed The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — has sold over 65 million copies, with development on an all new mainline The Witcher game having recently been announced, as well. Cyberpunk 2077, the studio's latest release, has also become a globally recognized franchise, spawning its own anime series Cyberpunk: Edgerunners, created in collaboration with Studio Trigger and premiering on Netflix in September 2022. Currently CDPR is also working on the expansion for the game, to be released in 2023.   Looking back on the past 20 years, Head of Studio Adam Badowski said: When we started CD PROJEKT RED, we didn't know what you can and can't do in the video game industry. We were rebels from the get-go, and we had to learn everything ourselves. That gave us the freedom to develop our games our way, and that distinct and personal approach has formed the core of our DNA — which you can see has shaped our games. These last twenty years have been exciting and fruitful for us, unpredictably so, and we are extremely proud of our achievements and the fact that we can constantly count on the support of our community. That in particular is something we all cherish here, and it is with this positivity and optimism we head into our twenty-first year and beyond.     The studio is focusing much of its anniversary celebrations around its passionate community. CD PROJEKT RED has held a close relationship with players since day one, and it is thanks to their support over the years that the studio is where it is today. Gamers have always been at the core of CDPR's work and mission statement, and the recently announced 20th anniversary celebrations are the studio's way of sharing this special occasion with its equally special community. To that end, the studio has launched its own 20th anniversary website which invites community members to share their own memories of CD PROJEKT RED and its games via photographs, screenshots, artwork — and more. Gamers can upload their memories to the Birthday Gallery, and share this momentous milestone with both the studio and community members from all around the world. Over the next few months, regular streams of CD PROJEKT RED games will be hosted on the 20th anniversary website, with studio members taking the audience on trips down memory lane every Wednesday, starting from July 6th. Visitors to the website will also be able to learn studio trivia, take part in challenges — and win prizes — and more. For more information on CD PROJEKT RED and its 20th anniversary celebrations, follow the oficial Twitter & Facebook accounts, and visit 20yearsof.cdprojektred.com. Source: CD Projekt
What Are People's Bank Of China, Reserve Bank of India And Bank Of Korea Expected To Do? Let's Look At ING Economics' Calls

What Are People's Bank Of China, Reserve Bank of India And Bank Of Korea Expected To Do? Let's Look At ING Economics' Calls

ING Economics ING Economics 01.07.2022 16:13
Asia (ex Japan): Our calls at a glance Source: ING People's Bank of China Our call: Policy rate cuts put on hold, though the central bank will continue urging banks to cut the 5Y Loan Prime Rate by 10bp in July, before pausing for the rest of the year. Rationale: Quarantine rules for positive Covid cases have been relaxed, and it's expected that the government has changed its focus from Covid control to balancing Covid control and economic growth. The number of Covid cases has remained in the single digits for weeks. We should see a mild consumption recovery in the June data and a faster recovery in July. The summer holiday spending should be similar to 2021. Risk to our call: Covid cases could rise and the government could react by tightening quarantine rules again. This would likely trigger rate cuts. Iris Pang Reserve Bank of India Our call: A further 50bp hike at each of the August and September meetings. No hike at the December meeting. The repo rate ending the year at 5.9%.   Rationale: The RBI needs policy to exit accommodation and move to at least neutral in short order. We believe that repo rates will catch up with core inflation at about 6% towards the end of the year (so basically zero real rates), and that could provide cover for the RBI to halt the withdrawal of its accommodation. Risk to our call: The most likely source of error is inflation being higher than forecast, requiring the RBI to keep its tightening bias through to the year-end, and the repo rate ending at over 6%. Rob Carnell Bank of Korea Our call: Rate hike in July, August, October and November then entering an easing cycle from 4Q23. Rationale: We expect CPI to stay above 6% in 3Q22, while GDP growth is likely to slow only modestly and remain relatively healthy on the back of reopenings and supportive fiscal policy. We expect the BoK to set its terminal rate at 2.75% by the end of 2022, but markets expect it to be 3.00-3.25%, reaching there by 1H23. Risk to our call: If financial markets do not stabilise with inflation exceeding 6% in June, the BoK may take a big step in July and reach 3.00% by the year-end. But more and faster rate hikes will move forward the next rate cut to 3Q23. Min Joo Kang Bank Indonesia Our call: A string of 25bp rate hikes in August, September and October. The 7-day reverse repo rate at 4.25% by the end of the year. Rationale: BI has some space to delay rate hikes in the near term as core inflation remains relatively well-behaved (2.7%). The pressure on the Indonesian rupiah has stepped up in recent weeks, but the partial resumption of palm oil exports should translate to a renewed widening of the trade surplus, which should be supportive of the currency. BI may also go easy on rate hikes (75bp total for the year) after it announced a programmed increase in reserve requirements from March through to September, which should bring the RR from 6% to 9%. Risk to our call: BI indicated that its pain point for rate hikes would be the acceleration of core inflation. We could see a more aggressive hiking cycle should core inflation see a more pronounced pickup with BI taking the 7-day reverse repo rate to 4.75% for the year. Nicholas Mapa Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Our call: A series of 25bp rate hikes in August, September, November and December. BSP’s overnight reverse repo at 3.5% by end-2022. Rationale: Inflation is expected to average 5.6% in the second half of the year, all but ensuring that BSP breaches the 2-4% inflation target for 2022. BSP has indicated it is open to doing “all it takes” to get inflation down, but at the same time officials have shown a preference for gradual and measured adjustments to policy. Risk to our call: Inflation accelerating past current BSP forecasts may trigger front-loaded aggressive rate hikes to rein in inflation expectations and limit the spread of second-round effects. Inflation breaching 7% could trigger 50bp rate hikes in August and September, followed by 25bp each in November and December. A BSP overnight repo rate at 4.0% for the year in this scenario. Nicholas Mapa Read this article on THINK TagsRecession Inflation Central banks Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
5 Cryptocurrencies To Keep A Watch On: FTX (FTT), Litecoin (LTC), Pancakeswap (CAKE), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA)

5 Cryptocurrencies To Keep A Watch On: FTX (FTT), Litecoin (LTC), Pancakeswap (CAKE), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.07.2022 16:10
Summary: A summary of FTT, LTC, CAKE, XRP, ADA Clawback prevention, peer-to-peer, Proof of work, proof of stake, proof-of-history. The automated market model The FTX Platform According to its creators, FTX stands out from other mainstream platforms due to its clawback prevention, centralised collateralised pool and universal stablecoin settlement features. FTX reduces the clawbacks on the platform by making use of a three-tiered liquidation model. Clawbacks refer to the amount of user funds that have been claimed by socialised losses. FTX derivatives are stable-coin settled and only require one universal margin wallet, this prevents fragmented capital across different wallets and exchanges which normally poses a problem for traders when it comes to liquidating positions. FTX is unique because it is backed by Almeda Research, which is well known as one of the leading companies in crypto trading and one of the largest liquidity providers. FTX covers services such as collateral, maintenance margins, liquidation processes and product listing. They are focused on fast development cycles which allows them to deploy crypto trading systems at competitive speeds. Read more: Altcoins: What Is FTX (FTT Token)? - A Deeper Look Into The FTX Platform  The Litecoin Platform Litecoin is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency and an open-source software project that was released under the MIT/X11 licence. Litecoin started in October 2011 as one of the first altcoins. Litecoin expands on the original Bitcoin (BTC) technology. Peer-to peer cryptocurrencies refer to transactions between two parties of some asset (such as digital currency) that does not require involvement from a central authority. Litecoin is a decentralised platform that has no censorship and is available to all. Users can send low cost, private, secure borderless payments to anyone they choose at anypoint and to anywhere in the world. Litecoin is blockchain secured, meaning that it is the largest global scrypt based network operating at 100% since 2011, tracasting and securing billions of dollars of value. Read more: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform  The PancakeSwap platform PancakeSwap is an automated market maker (AMM), a decentralised finance (DeFi) application which allows users to exchange tokens and provides liquidity via farming and earning rewards. PancakeSwap users trade against a liquidity pool, which are filled by users with deposits and in return receive liquidity provider (LP) tokens. The liquidity provider tokens can later be used to reclaim their deposits plus a portion of the trading fees. PancakeSwap allows users to trade BEP20 tokens (token on the Binance smartchain), and provides liquidity to the exchange and earn fees, stake liquidity provider tokens to earn CAKE, stake CAKE to earn more CAKE and stake CAKE to earn tokens of other projects. PancakeSwap is one of the most popular decentralised platforms that is available to users for trading, winning crypto and earning. The platform is trusted with billions by millions. PancakeSwap has the most users of any decentralised platform, ever. The platform has 2.9 million users over 40 million trades in the last 30 days and a stake of $4.8 billion. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform  The Ripple Platform Peer-to-peer networks refers to the direct exchange of an asset between individuals, the transaction does not involve a central authority. XRP is the native cryptocurrency of Ripple Labs Inc, a cryptocurrency payment system. XRP is Ripples digital asset used for global payments, the cryptocurrency allows the transferring of payments at very low cost which aims to attract the attention of banks and retailers. Ripples superpower is the combination of extremely low costs and completing the transaction in under 5 seconds. Ripple is known to be a cryptocurrency built for business use. Ripples enterprise-grade solutions are quicker, more cost-effective and more transparent than the more traditional form of financial assets. The Ripple users use these solutions to facilitate instant payments, find and buy crypto, engage audiences, grow their treasury, drive new revenue and lower capital requirements. Read more: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP  The Cardano Platform Cardano’s mission is to be a blockchain for innovators, visionaries and changemakers, it has the tools and technologies required to create possibilities to bring about positive global change for the many, as well as the few. The cardano platform is a proof-of-stake blockchain, it was the first to be founded on peer-review research and was developed through evidence-based methods. The blockchain combines pioneering technologies to provide unparalleled sustainability and security to decentralised systems, applications and technologies. Cardano’s aim is to be an enabling force for positive change and progress, in order to achieve this they have a leading team of engineers. The platform exists to redistribute power from the unaccountable to the margins and the individuals. Cardano is the first blockchain to implement the Ouroboros protocol. Ouroboros is the first peer-reviewed, verifiably secure blockchain protocol, which enables Cardano’s decentralisation and allows it to scale global requirements sustainably without compromising security crucially. Read more: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA)  Sources: FXMAG.com

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Forex is an abbrevation for Foreign Exchange. This market is decentralized and works 24/5. Forex contains trading of two assets - a pair of currencies or a pair of currency and a commodity or a precious metal. All of transactions are based on CFD.

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