Germany’s Economy Declines In Q4, Eurozone GDP Is Expected To Slow

German economy falls into winter recession

ING Economics ING Economics 30.01.2023 12:40
So much for reliable statistics! The German economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2022 after the first tentative statistics pointed to stagnation Germany's economy isn't just cooling, it's facing a winter recession   The German statistical office just released its first official estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth, and recession fears are back. The economy shrank by 0.2% Quarter-on-Quarter, from + 0.5% QoQ in the third. GDP details will only be released in a few weeks, but private consumption was the main drag on growth according to the statistical office, As a result, annual GDP growth for 2022 was also revised downwards to 1.8%, from 1.9% YoY. Economic outlook anything but rosy Not falling off the cliff is one thing, staging a strong rebound, however, is a different matter. And there are very few signs pointing to a healthy recovery of the German economy any time soon. First of all, we shouldn’t forget that fiscal stimulus over the last three years stabilised but did not really boost the economy. Industrial production is still some 5% below what it was before Covid, and GDP only returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter of 2022. Industrial orders have also weakened since the start of 2022, consumer confidence, despite some recent improvements, is still close to historic lows, and the loss of purchasing power will continue in 2023. Let's also not forget that, like every eurozone economy, the German economy still has to digest the full impact of the European Central Bank's rate hikes. Demand for mortgages has already started to drop and, as in previous hiking cycles, it didn't take long before the demand for business loans also started to drop. In short, the German economy will still be highly affected by last year’s crises throughout 2023. Germany’s economic outlook for this year looks complicated Germany’s economic outlook for this year looks complicated, to say the least, with an unprecedentedly high number of uncertainties and developments in opposing directions. And there is more; the German economy is still facing a series of structural challenges which are likely to weigh on growth this year and beyond: energy supply in the winter of 2023/24 and the broader energy transition towards renewables, changing global trade with more geopolitical risks and changes to supply chains, high investment needs for digitalisation and infrastructure, and an increasing lack of skilled workers. This long list embodies both risks and opportunities. If historical lessons from previous structural transitions are of any guidance, even if managed in the most optimal way, it will take a few years before the economy can actually thrive again. Winter recession remains base case for German economy Today’s GDP numbers once again show that caution, better than hope, is probably the best guidance for predicting German and European economic growth. The warmer winter weather, along with implemented and announced government fiscal stimulus packages, have prevented the economy from falling off a cliff, but a technical recession is still a likely outcome. We stick to our forecast of a winter recession in Germany and a very mild recession for the whole of 2023. Read this article on THINK TagsGermany GDP Eurozone
Glovo Is Planning To Layoff 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage

Glovo Is Planning To Layoff 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 30.01.2023 12:30
Many companies hire additional employees during the pandemic, but the current economic situation has meant that rising costs force many companies to make redundancies. The Middle East is the warmest region on our planet, as everything has its good and bad sides. It turns out that the great disadvantage and at the same time the torment of this region can be the lack of water.   In this article: Bitcoin to naira The Layoffs Will water be more valuable than gold? Bitcoin to naira Nigeria's central bank wants to get citizens to switch to digital cash. The Central Bank of Nigeria continues to impose restrictions on cash withdrawals from ATMs as part of its ongoing efforts to accelerate the transition to a cashless society. These actions led to the price of one bitcoin (BTC) in Nigeria skyrocketing to the equivalent of $38,000 in the local currency, naira. Source: https://t.co/1JFzdATyNT — CoinGecko (@coingecko) January 30, 2023 The layoffs Significant layoffs no longer affect only technology companies, but also the service industry. The pandemic meant that restaurants were closed, and in order to stay on the market, restaurants offered deliveries. The leader of the supply remained Glovo, which significantly increased the number of employees due to the pandemic. The Spanish company Glovo said on Monday it planned to lay off 250 workers worldwide, citing declining orders and inefficiencies after the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in employment. The layoffs, which will mainly affect Glovo's Barcelona offices, represent a 6.5% reduction in the company's global workforce. The CEO stressed that the layoffs affected the company's headquarters in Barcelona in areas such as business support functions, recruitment and data. The current macroeconomic situation, with rising interest rates and inflation, reduces the purchasing power of consumers, and some decide to order less often. Delivery Hero's Glovo to lay off 250 employees worldwide https://t.co/sJJ8ZijUWn pic.twitter.com/ouaBmh3dbo — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 30, 2023 Will water be more valuable than gold? For many, gold and oil, also referred to as black gold, are the most valuable, but we forget about the most important resource without which it is impossible to survive - water. We can live without gold and oil and yet they are more valuable than water. Water is so common that its absence is something abstract. Water can become a scarce product, especially in the Middle East region, which is rich in oil. Many countries in the region already suffer from water stress, but what could that mean for the rest of the world? This shows that we should globally focus on climate care, because the lack of water can also affect other parts of the world. Energetic transpomation may not be enough, it may also turn out to be more reogristic water distribution. The Middle East is rich in oil reserves, providing a huge portion of the world’s energy. But what it has in abundance in hydrocarbons, it lacks in a resource that’s becoming scarcer by the year: water. (via @CNBCi) pic.twitter.com/ROBh9kw2hg — CNBC (@CNBC) January 30, 2023
Bitcoin feels the need for correction before further growth

Bitcoin feels the need for correction before further growth

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 30.01.2023 12:04
Market picture Bitcoin rose 5.3% last week to close at $23.8K. On Sunday, the first cryptocurrency was one step away from $24K, updating its high since August. Ethereum gained 0.9% to $1640. Top-10 leading altcoins have gained between 2.7% (Dogecoin) and 18.8% (Polygon). Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose 4.4% to $1.08 trillion over the week, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index reached the greed zone for the first time since late March last year. Bitcoin is gradually approaching its key moving averages. The 200-week is just above $24.7K, and the 50-week is now at $24.5K. A break below these levels would be a strong sell signal. A rebound above them could restore confidence in the crypto market. But be prepared for a prolonged consolidation or correction before a decisive move higher. Polygon (MATIC) broke into the top 10 by capitalisation, taking over Solana. Over the past 30 days, the price of MATIC has increased by 52%. Ethereum's second-tier scaling network came second by daily users, behind the BNB chain. Another recalculation showed a 4.7% increase in the mining complexity of the first cryptocurrency. The index renewed its all-time high at 39.35T. News Background According to Matrixport, US institutional investors have started actively buying bitcoin, accounting for up to 85% of all purchases. Altcoins are still largely lagging but could soon overtake the top two cryptocurrencies. According to Reuters, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun inspecting Wall Street financial advisors for cryptocurrency custody services. One of the largest rating agencies, Moody's, is developing a scoring system to analyse the risks of stablecoins. The platform will be based on assessing the quality of collateral reports and will support up to 20 assets.
Spanish inflation up again as core inflation strengthens

Spanish inflation up again as core inflation strengthens

ING Economics ING Economics 30.01.2023 11:27
Spanish inflation rose again to 5.8% in January, from 5.7% in December. The further cooling in gas and electricity prices was completely offset by a further rise in core inflation to a new record of 7.5% from 7% last month Spanish inflation rebounds to 5.8% in January, due to a further acceleration of core inflation Spanish inflation rose slightly to 5.8% in January from 5.7% in December. On a monthly basis, inflation fell 0.3% compared to December. Harmonised inflation rose to 5.8% year-on-year in January from 5.5% the month before and fell 0.5% month-on-month. The increase in headline inflation was mainly because fuel prices rose more strongly, and clothing and footwear prices fell less than in January last year. A further cooling in energy inflation, on the other hand, put some downward pressure on headline inflation. The removal of the state subsidy on fuel retail prices will also have exerted some downward pressure. On the other hand, core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose further from 7% last month to 7.5% in January. Core inflation continues to rise worryingly strongly, showing that underlying price pressures in the economy are still very high. The current figures may also be biased because this month the weightings of the various components in the inflation basket were updated and several methodological changes were made. It will be necessary to wait for the final figures by component to estimate the impact of these changes. Lower energy prices drive core inflation higher The headline inflation rate is affected by two opposing drivers. On one side are lower energy prices exercising some downward pressure on headline inflation. Thanks to warm winter weather, gas stocks are still at very high levels despite reduced imports. As a result, there is growing optimism that we will get through next winter comfortably as well, allowing gas and electricity prices to ease. On the other hand, underlying price pressures in the rest of the economy remain very high. High core inflation shows that there are still very many pass-through effects at play. Food inflation also remains stubbornly high. The number of food producers planning to raise their prices further has barely fallen from its peak levels. Another factor is that the Spanish government has launched several support packages to help families in this energy crisis. One drawback of these measures is that they may prolong inflationary pressures. The sharp fall in energy prices brings some relief to headline inflation, but inflationary pressures in the rest of the economy remain worryingly high. Unless energy prices strongly rebound, falling energy prices will further cool headline inflation. The big question remains when core inflation will peak. Current figures do not yet point to a cooling. With the economy doing better than expected, it is also easier for companies to pass on new price increases than if we had fallen into a severe recession. We expect core inflation to remain stubbornly high for some time before it too begins its downward trajectory. This is likely to motivate the ECB to continue its tightening cycle. The ECB will not let its policy decisions depend on sharply fluctuating energy prices. We will probably also need to see a sign that core inflation is permanently falling before it will soften its tone. Read this article on THINK TagsSpain Inflation Eurozone Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Drastic shift in natural gas outlook

Drastic shift in natural gas outlook

ING Economics ING Economics 30.01.2023 11:24
European gas prices have collapsed over the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mild weather and weak industrial demand have ensured that gas storage has remained strong. The region should get through this winter comfortably and prospects also look better for the 23/24 winter. While we have cut our forecasts, significant risks to the upside remain European storage to finish heating season well above average A late start to the 2022/23 heating season saw Europe building gas storage almost until mid-November. At a little over 95% full, storage was essentially maxed out. This was far above the target of 80% by 1 November 2022 set by the European Commission. While there have been some cold spells in the current heating season, it has been largely mild, which has meant storage levels have held up well. In fact, there have been days this winter when storage has seen net increases. Storage at the moment is 72% full, well above the five-year average of 54% for this time of year.   Assuming Europe does not experience a prolonged cold spell in the current heating season, the region should exit the 2022/23 winter with storage above 50% full. This is significantly higher than the 26% seen at the end of the last heating season and above the five-year average of 34%. Ending this winter with very comfortable inventories makes the job of refilling storage over the injection season and hitting EU inventory targets of 90% by 1 November 2023 easier. Between 1 April and the end of October last year, the EU added in the region of 67bcm to storage. If we were to see similar storage levels at the start of the next heating season, the EU would only need to add around 43bcm of gas this year. EU storage to exit this winter comfortably (% full) Source: GIE, ENTSOG, Eurostat, ING Research Aggressive demand cuts The level of demand destruction seen in recent months has been considerable. The latest numbers from Eurostat show that EU demand was 25% below the five-year average for October 2022 while Germany’s weekly data shows declines in the first two weeks of 2023 in excess of 30% from the 2018-21 average. However, it is important to note that demand in the third week of January was only around 9% below the 2018-21 average. Splitting it out, household demand was down 8.8% while industrial demand was almost 10% lower than the 2018-21 average. We will need to keep an eye on this, but it could suggest that demand is starting to respond to the lower price environment.  The reduction in demand in recent months has far exceeded the Commission’s target of 15% below the five-year average between August 2022 and the end of March 2023. As a result, the level of demand destruction that will be needed from April through until March 2024 is more modest than initially expected. Our numbers suggest that a 10% decline from the five-year average is needed between April 2023 and March 2024 to meet the European Commission’s 90% storage target by 1 November 2023. The requirement for lower levels of demand destruction suggests that prices do not need to go as high as initially expected. However, two key assumptions behind this are that remaining Russian daily gas flows stay unchanged and that LNG import volumes into the EU grow marginally year-on-year in 2023. The big uncertainty over LNG flows into Europe is how strong a demand recovery we see from China this year.   LNG market still tight in 2023 A well-supplied European market has meant that we have seen some shifts in regional spreads. Most noticeable is the spread between TTF and Asian spot LNG. For the bulk of last year, TTF was trading at a premium to Asian LNG in order to pull in cargoes and make up for Russian supply losses. However, since mid-December, TTF is trading at a discount to Asia. This should support the redirecting of LNG cargoes towards Asia.   Admittedly looking at the forward curves, TTF’s discount to Asia is only in the prompt market, and further along the curve there is little between the two markets. Clearly, there is little aggressive competition between the two regions for cargo at the moment, but this could change as China returns from its Lunar New Year holidays. Weaker Chinese demand through 2022 offered relief to Europe. Last year, China imported 87bcm of LNG, down 20% year-on-year and the weakest annual import volume since 2019. However, the relaxation of Covid measures and several support measures to help the domestic property sector could drive a recovery in demand this year. China also has a larger volume of contracts with fixed destination clauses this year (100bcm vs 88bcm last year according to the IEA). Ultimately though, Chinese demand is a big uncertainty for the global LNG market. While we are likely to see an increase in demand, it is difficult to gauge exactly how much stronger it could be this year. We are assuming for now that Chinese demand will not return to 2021 levels. Instead, we are expecting more modest growth of a little over 10% YoY. The restart of the Freeport LNG plant (20bcm per year) could provide some relief to a tight LNG market, particularly if we see stronger-than-expected Chinese demand. There appears to be some progress on the regulatory front for the restart of the plant, but the market may have to wait a while longer for exports to resume.  Chinese LNG imports to see partial recovery in 2023 (bcm) Source: China Customs, ING Research The highs are behind us The more comfortable storage situation does put Europe in a better position to handle the 2023/24 winter. It certainly isn’t looking as dire as it did just several months ago. Therefore, prices do not need to go as high as originally expected going into the next heating season. We expect TTF to average in the region of EUR60-65/MWh over the first half of 2023, increasing to EUR75-80/MWh over the second half of the year. The assumptions around this are that there are no further declines in remaining Russian gas flows, that we see a small increase in EU LNG imports over 2023 and that Europe experiences a normal winter in 2023/24. This should allow the EU to start the next heating season with storage exceeding the European Commission target of 90% by 1 November, and the region should get through the winter months in a fairly comfortable manner. However, Europe will rely more on storage in the 23/24 winter than it has in the current winter.   ING natural gas price forecasts Source: ING Research What are the upside risks to our forecasts? There are two key upside risks to our new forecasts. Firstly, the bulk of Russian gas flows to the EU have already been halted. However, there is still the risk that flows via Ukraine and possibly even through TurkStream are stopped. If this was to occur, Europe could lose 15-20bcm of gas on an annual basis, which is still a sizeable volume. This would need to be made up either by further LNG imports or through higher levels of demand destruction. Both would likely require prices to move higher from current levels.  The second key risk is related to Chinese LNG demand. We are assuming only a marginal recovery in Chinese import demand this year (a little over 10%), rather than returning to 2021 levels. If Chinese demand surprised to the upside, this would mean a tighter-than-expected LNG market, increasing the need for Europe to compete more aggressively with Asia for supply. This would also mean higher-than-expected prices. Read this article on THINK TagsTTF Russia-Ukraine Natural gas LNG China Covid Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Commodities Feed: Middle East tensions

The Commodities Feed: Middle East tensions

ING Economics ING Economics 30.01.2023 11:18
Oil prices are receiving support this morning after reports of a drone attack in Iran, while the return of China from the Lunar New Year holidays will also help. OPEC+ will meet on Wednesday to discuss output policy. However, no change is expected from the group Energy - specs boost buying Price action in oil over the last week was rangebound with the market awaiting this week’s  OPEC+ meeting and the return of China from the Lunar New Year holidays. As for Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting, we do not expect any change in output policy from the group, given the lingering uncertainty that overshadows the market, both from a supply and demand perspective. However, the market has started this week on a firmer footing, trading close to 1% higher in early morning trading in Asia today. The return of China from holidays and rising tensions in the Middle East appear to have provided some support. There were reports over the weekend of an Israeli drone attack on certain targets within Iran. It is still unclear whether a fire at a refinery was also connected to the attack. Iran is pumping a little more than 2.5MMbbls/d and there have been reports of increased exports in recent months. The latest positioning data show a large increase in speculative buying in oil. Speculators increased their net long positions in ICE Brent by 39,690 lots over the last reporting week to 252,142 lots as of last Tuesday. This is the largest net long seen since March last year and the buying appears to reflect the more bullish outlook for the market. The expectation is that the market will tighten as we move through the year due to lower Russian supply and a recovery in Chinese demand. Meanwhile, for ICE gasoil, speculators also boosted their net long position over the last week, buying 9,924 lots and leaving them with a net long of 80,266 lots - the largest position held since May 2022. This increased speculative buying in gasoil comes ahead of the EU’s ban on Russian refined product imports. Metals – Cochilco expects copper surplus Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, expects copper supply to expand 5% this year and 4% next year, compared with demand increases of 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively.  In Chile, which accounts for more than a quarter of global supply, 2023 production is estimated at 5.7 million metric tonnes, a 7.5% increase on 2022. Cochilco sees Chilean mine supply expanding a further 3.3% in 2024. In zinc, the cash/3m spread tightened to a backwardation of US$25.25/t on Friday, up a little over US$10/t over the course of the week. The strength in the spread comes as LME zinc inventories continue to stand at historically low levels, falling by 950 tonnes on Friday to 17,675 tonnes - the lowest since 1986.   Agriculture – Ivory Coast to boost domestic cocoa processing The latest reports suggest that the Ivory Coast will increase the amount of domestic cocoa processing to 49% starting from October, in line with the local government’s objective to process a minimum of 50% of cocoa domestically. As per the current numbers, only 35%-40% of cocoa is processed within the West African country, while the rest is being exported. The latest survey from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) shows that global cocoa inventories stood at 1.78mt at the end of the 2021/22 season, higher than the previous projection of 1.62mt, but lower than the 1.8mt at the end of the 2020/21 season. The group said that it may revise down last season’s supply deficit estimate of 306kt, considering the recent data set. Recent comments from the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) highlighted concern over a smaller grain harvest in 2023 as a result of the ongoing war. Officials expect planting acreage to shrink, while the total harvest is forecast at 53mt for 2023 compared to 65mt in 2022. The latest CFTC data shows that money managers decreased their net longs in CBOT soybeans by 22,037 lots to 146,261 lots as of 24 January. The move was predominantly driven by longs liquidating with gross longs decreasing by 13,988 lots to 172,806 lots. For wheat, speculators increased their net short position in CBOT wheat (for the third consecutive week) by 8,844 lots to 73,933 lots. Read this article on THINK TagsZinc Russian oil ban OPEC+ Oil Iran Copper Cocoa Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Tesla May Have The Possibility Of Correction Being Prolonged

Toyota's Transition To Electric Will Come With A Change In CEO

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 30.01.2023 11:13
Electric vehicles are taking up a growing share of European and American markets, and a fifth of the world's largest car market, China, already consists of electric vehicles. Akio Toyoda Longtime CEO Akio Toyoda called himself the spokesperson for the "silent majority" of people in the auto industry who questioned the focus on electric vehicles. In the automotive world, Toyoda is one of those who advocate slower and more prudent movement. He argued that gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles like Toyota's Prius could be just as environmentally friendly, and said other companies were pushing consumers to switch to electric vehicles they might not be ready for without a full charging infrastructure. The CEO has always said that he is not a skeptic about electric vehicles - he is a realist. The desire to change for the better The transition is a watershed moment not only in the automotive industry, but also in the complicated green energy transition across the business world. Some companies, investors and governments are pushing for big leaps towards renewable energy and green technologies, arguing that consumers and infrastructure will keep up with the changes. Government agencies and investors are encouraging companies to switch to electric vehicles with subsidies and tax breaks. New tax credits for electric vehicles in US law, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, do not apply to hybrids that are not pluggable. The European Union has mandated the sale of new zero-emission cars by 2035. The state of California will also only allow the sale of new electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen cell vehicles starting in 2035. Read next: Inflation Is Falling, But Does It Mean That The Fed's February Decision Will Be Dovish?| FXMAG.COM New CEO CEO Motor Corp. Akio Toyoda, who has expressed skepticism about the future of all-electric vehicles, said he would hand over the keys to a junior director. The change in management comes as Toyota transitions to electric, autonomous and connected cars. Koji Sato, a 53-year-old engineer who will take over as Toyota's CEO in April, has provided some details on his plans for the world's best-selling automaker. However, his background in launching the first all-electric Lexus and working on hydrogen-powered cars allows him to face the upcoming car transformation. Sato said on Thursday, without giving details, that his plans for Toyota include accelerating the electrification of the automaker's lineup. Still, echoing Toyoda's position, he said that for the world to become carbon neutral by 2050, it would need more than just electric vehicles for transportation. Toyota will be EV? Last month, Toyoda wondered aloud how much longer he could argue for a more gradual and multifaceted approach. Two generations ago, Toyota was transforming the automotive industry with innovations such as just-in-time manufacturing and an obsession with continuous improvement. By the time Toyoda took the top job in 2009, there were signs the company was moving too fast. His quest for global dominance limited profit margins and caused some to wonder if quality was being sacrificed. But as Tesla overtook Toyota to become the world's most valuable automaker by market capitalization, competition intensified. Currently, Toyota has several electric vehicles in showrooms, and more will appear this year. Toyota's current EV platform - the basic architecture on which various car models can be built - has been partially changed from the existing platform for gasoline-powered vehicles. Even before Toyota's first change at the top in 13 years, some changes to its EV strategy were being considered behind the scenes. The company researched rivals. Meanwhile, Toyota remains the leader in sales of hybrids and plug-in hybrids, two model types that accounted for nearly 30% of its global shipments between 2022 and November. But sales of pure electric vehicles - models that run purely on electricity - are still low. The competitive EV business remains for Toyota as part of a larger strategy to promote and invest in a diversified offering that also includes hybrid and hydrogen vehicles. Toyota share price Toyota shares with the new year soared. They started the year at 138.28 and are now much higher at 147.16. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
China Steps Into Bull Market,  How Much The Bank Of England Will Be Raising Its Rates?

China Steps Into Bull Market, How Much The Bank Of England Will Be Raising Its Rates?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 30.01.2023 10:44
The new week kicked off with Chinese equities jumping into a bull market as traders returned from their Lunar New Year holiday. S&P500 and Nasdaq The S&P500 and Nasdaq also freed themselves from the 2022 bearish trend, while global bond markets had their best January since 1990. And if the equity rally is still on a shaky ground – due to fear that the slowing economy could hit company earnings – the future in bonds looks brighter. Policy verdicts In the macro front, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will be announcing their latest policy verdicts, between Wednesday and Thursday. Fed For the Fed, there is extremely little doubt that this week’s rate hike won’t be anything more than a meagre 25bp hike. BoE The ECB is expected to hike by 50bp this month, while we don’t know by how much the BoE will be raising its rates. In one hand, the BoE should continue fighting against inflation – which remains in the double-digit zone in Britain. On the other hand, the economic outlook for Britain is so morose – with country-wide strikes adding salt and pepper to the gloomy picture that Bailey cannot throw a series of 50bp hikes in the middle like Madame Lagarde. Stocks market Elsewhere, the Indian markets are being shaken by the Adani scandal. OPEC will meet this week, and big US companies including Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Exxon, Starbucks and Ford are due to announce earnings throughout this week! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:39 China steps into bull market 1:01 S&P500, Nasdaq extend rally into bullish zone 2:04 Bonds record best Jan since 1990 & more gains are in the store 3:18 What to expect from the Fed, US jobs data this week? 6:10 50bp from ECB, and what else? 7:16 Will the BoE dare a 50bp hike? 8:53 Also this week: India shaken by Adani scandal, OPEC to hold fire, Apple, Amazon, Google & Meta to post Q4 results Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #ECB #BoE #OPEC #meeting #Apple #Amazon #Google #Meta #Exxon #earnings #US #inflation #NFP#data #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #crude #oil #China #bull #market #Adani #scandal #Nifty #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

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Markets comments

INGEconomics
Auto production and general machinery increased significantly. South Korea Industrial Production as a whole gained 0.4%
ING Economics
IpekOzkardeskaya
China's reopening seems to be a double-edged sword as energy and commodities prices will go up
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
IntertraderMarket News
European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.50%, the CAC 40 declined 0.61%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.32%
Intertrader Market News
DanielKostecki
China reopens, Texas freezes - crude oil has to face contrasting factors
Daniel Kostecki
InstaForexAnalysis
Gold supported by, among others, changes on Japanese bond market, may end the year trading at a 4-month high
InstaForex Analysis
INGEconomics
Indonesia is the world's 6th largest bauxite producer. Country bans commodity export from June 2023
ING Economics
EnriqueDíaz-Álvarez
Bank of England decision wasn't unanimous as one member voted for a 75bp hike with two other opting for inaction
Enrique Díaz-Álvarez
GecoOne
Geco.one COO says Bitcoin reaching $250K in 2023 is considered as impossible by other analysts as BTC does not exceed $60,000
Geco One
IntertraderMarket News
Netflix (NFLX) slumped 8.63%, as a media report said the video streaming firm is refunding advertisers after missing views targets
Intertrader Market News
CraigErlam
Craig Erlam talks euro against US dollar amid central banks decisions
Craig Erlam
Crypto.comAccelerate the...
There is a chance Apple may let users install apps from outside the App Store boosting NFT
Crypto.com Accelerate the...
INGEconomics
Sterling to euro exchange rate is expected to hit 0.89 in the first quarter of 2023
ING Economics
INGEconomics
Analysts expect ECB to deliver two 50bps hikes in the first quarter with a chance of one more in Q2
ING Economics
AlexKuptsikevich
Switzerland: National Bank goes for a 50bps rate hike. Swiss inflation slowdown is impressing
Alex Kuptsikevich
CraigErlam
European Central Bank is expected to go for a less hawkish hike, but economic projections may be worth even more attention
Craig Erlam
IntertraderMarket News
Tesla (TSLA) sank a further 2.58% after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on the stock
Intertrader Market News
IpekOzkardeskaya
Fed Chair Powell bears in mind inflation prints, but they seem to be insufficient for FOMC
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
INGEconomics
Did you know that in October average gas price was 4.3 times higher than in 2019?
ING Economics
FranklinTempleton
According to Franklin Templeton global stocks' performance may be better than global bonds
Franklin Templeton
AleksandrDavidov
From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level
Aleksandr Davidov
AleksandrDavidov
Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%
Aleksandr Davidov
JingRen
Euro: 50bp rate hike is on the cards, but ECB decides shortly after Fed...
Jing Ren
AleksStrzesniewski
What’s more worrisome is the fact that we will continue to learn of all of the contagion and aftereffects of the FTX collapse in the coming weeks and months.
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How to convert USD to GBP? Maybe it's time to use our online currency converter?

With our currency converter you're able to check exchange rates of many currencies.

Examples of available currency pairs.

What is Forex?

Forex is an abbrevation for Foreign Exchange. This market is decentralized and works 24/5. Forex contains trading of two assets - a pair of currencies or a pair of currency and a commodity or a precious metal. All of transactions are based on CFD.

100 EUR To USD | What Is Forex?

CFD Meaning:

CFD is an abbreviation for Contract For Difference. In a simplified way it means that you're not an owner of certain asset and transactions are based on the exchange difference.

What are Forex pairs?

We can distinguish forex major pairs, minor pairs and exotic currency pairs.

Forex major pairs are: EUR/USD (EUR To USD), USD/JPY (USD To JPY), GBP/USD (GBP To USD).

Forex minor pairs are: EUR/GBP (EUR To GBP), NZD/USD (NZD To USD), EUR/CHF (EUR To CHF), CAD/JPY (CAD To JPY).

Sample pairs: GBP To INRJPY To USDGBP To AUDJPY To HKDGBP To TRYAUD To USD

It's good to...

follow European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) decisions as they might affect exchange rates.

The Dollar Index (DXY) should arouse our interest as well.

Take care of your financial skills:

Get familiar to the terms of Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.

Many of us wonders what to invest in. Have a look at Forex section, but have in mind, that FXMAG.COM isn't only about currencies. You're welcomed to visit CryptoStock Markets and Gaming sections to discover many ways of investing.

Do you want to invest in gold and silver? There's a Precious Metals section waiting for you!

For those considering real estate investing, have a look at this section.

Modern investors might want to invest in Bitcoin, Ether, other Altcoins or invest in Amazon, but markets are so diversed nowadays. There are a lot of stocks to buy.

Investing money? You're surely familiar to terms like inflation. Watch CPIPPI and other indicators to make proper decisions. ECBFed or other national banks' decisions of e.g. tightening monetary policy can affect currencies, precious metals and other instruments. Having that in mind, we should watch interest rates.

Important financial terms:

Trend Lines, Bull Market, Bear Market, All Time High (ATH), Fluctuation, Candlesticks.

Trending in investing:

Tesla (TSLA), Solana (SOL), Apple (APPL), Altcoins

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