Craig Erlam (Oanda) Talks RBA Decision, British Pound (GBP) And The UK Situation And More

Craig Erlam (Oanda) Talks RBA Decision, British Pound (GBP) And The UK Situation And More

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 04.10.2022 16:49
Stock markets recovered earlier losses on Monday and are adding to that in early trade on Tuesday, with Asia also posting strong gains. The turnaround in risk appetite appears to have been driven by another deterioration in PMI surveys as traders speculate that such weakness could be a precursor to slower monetary tightening. If that sounds like straw clutching, it’s probably because it is but then, equity markets have had a rough ride of late and that can’t last forever. The deceleration begins The RBA became the first major central bank to slow the pace of tightening overnight, hiking rates by only 25 basis points against expectations of another 50. After four consecutive super-sized hikes, the RBA determined it can start to ease off the brake and is on course to hit its inflation target over the medium term. Of course, this had nothing to do with weak PMI surveys but it will probably assist the narrative that a global deceleration in rate hikes is underway, which could boost risk appetite further. Markets do love to set themselves up for disappointment. The jobs report on Friday could quickly put an end to that. Damage control The pound has continued its recovery this week amid reports that UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will shortly unveil his second u-turn in 24 hours. Despite repeatedly insisting otherwise, Kwarteng is poised to announce that the government’s debt-cutting plan will be brought forward – perhaps later this month – alongside OBR forecasts in a bid to calm the markets. While the damage to the pound can be undone, the needless reputational harm the government has suffered won’t be as easily repaired. The Chancellor has shown a flagrant disregard for the markets – and the general public for that matter – and that will take time to undo. The move is a welcome first step, now he must convince everyone that his plan is credible and won’t come at a significant economic cost. ​ ​ Less enthusiasm for bitcoin The risk relief rally is extending to bitcoin but perhaps to a lesser extent, with the cryptocurrency up a little over 1%, but still shy of $20,000. The slight disconnect between bitcoin and other risk assets recently has been interesting. We’ve seen more resilience during downturns and seemingly less enthusiasm during rallies. It will be interesting to see whether this relationship holds and what that means going forward. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. An unsustainable rebound? - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Crude Oil And USD: Most Probably Many Will Keep An Eye On This Week's OPEC+ Meeting And The US Jobs Data

Crude Oil And USD: Most Probably Many Will Keep An Eye On This Week's OPEC+ Meeting And The US Jobs Data

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.10.2022 16:39
All eyes on OPEC+ Oil prices are continuing to creep higher ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday. Markets are now expecting a large output cut in excess of one million barrels per day, for which there is seemingly plenty of support. But with the economic outlook becoming gloomier by the day, will the alliance go far enough to achieve the $90-100 oil they so clearly desire? I suspect any cut will be accompanied by strong language over the prospect of further action which may make up for any shortfall, should they take a more conservative approach. A hot jobs report may spoil the party All this talk of peak rates has excited the gold bulls, with the yellow metal leaping above $1,700 and gaining momentum. The sustainability of any rebound will ultimately depend on how long traders can convince themselves peak rates are priced in. Looking back at past periods of optimism, we may be on borrowed time. Of course, rates can only go so far and the RBA has already taken the decision to take its foot off the brake. But I’m not convinced the Fed is there yet and a hot jobs report may spoil the party once more. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. OPEC+ meeting looms, gold has momentum - MarketPulseMarketPulse
ADP Jobs Preview: How the data creates a dollar selling opportunity ahead of the ISM Services PMI

ADP Jobs Preview: How the data creates a dollar selling opportunity ahead of the ISM Services PMI

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.10.2022 16:25
Economists expect ADP's private-sector jobs report to show a modest increase in September. The dollar may take advantage of the low bar to recover.Expectations from the ISM Services PMI seem optimistic after the disappointing manufacturing report.If services show a weak New Orders component, the greenback could begin a fresh sell-offOne meeting at a time – that is how the Federal Reserve has vowed to operate in an uncertain world. For markets, it means every data point matters more than usual, and action becomes wilder when two top-tier figures are published within less than two hours. Here is my playbook for the two events. The first to come out is ADP's private-sector jobs report for September. America's largest payrolls firm resumed releasing its labor market reports last month after a summer break meant to improve the data quality, or at least the correlation with the official Nonfarm Payrolls report. That has yet to work out. For the third consecutive time, ADP's data missed economists' expectations and also failed to predict the strength of America's steaming hot labor market.The figures missed estimates in August, May and April:Source: FXStreetThe economic calendar shows an expected increase of 200,000 jobs in August, which seems modest in comparison to 315,000 positions created in the previous month. Given ADP's recent track record, any positive number would be considered satisfactory, as it would indicate an upbeat official figure as well. After several sessions of dollar weakness, a strong – or even a less than horrible – report would be sufficient to trigger a bounce in the greenback. Too optimistic ISM Services PMI?The ADP NFP is out at 12:15 GMT, and at 14:00, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is out. Expectations are high: the headline is set to hold up at 56, a healthy distance from the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion. The most forward-looking component of this future-leaning survey is New Orders. It is projected to slide from the high level of 61.8 to 58.9, still a strong point.Even the Prices Paid component carries elevated estimates of holding at 69.8 points. Given that the Fed watches such inflation expectations gauges closely, and without a drop towards or below 50, it will continue raising rates.If these high estimates may still be surpassed when examined on their own, the comparison with the ISM Manufacturing PMI gives pause for thought. That report, published on Monday, showed the inflation component sliding to 51.7. It is hard to see how an 18-point gap is maintained between the two sectors. The ISM Services PMI Prices Paid component has been too high for too long:Source: FXStreetI think that high expectations from this forward-looking survey for America's biggest sector open the door to a disappointment that would down the dollar – a repeat of Monday's greenback grind. That fall could be harder from a higher point, if ADP's data has provided a boost. Final thoughtsVolatility in markets is set to remain high until the Fed clearly signals it is slowing down the pace of rate hikes. A lower-than-expected hike in Australia and Britain's U-turn are insufficient – they are only the latest twists in the roller-coaster. Trade with care.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock climbs on delivery news

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock climbs on delivery news

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.10.2022 16:25
Rivian Automotive is on track to deliver 25,000 vehicles in 2022.RIVN stock rallied 9.1% in Tuesday's premarket.Tesla recently missed forecasts for Q3 deliveries.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has garnered a gain of 9.1% in Tuesday's premarket after the maker known for its lineup of EV trucks reiterated delivery figures that many observers thought it would miss. In Monday's post-market Rivian announced that it expected to meet its goal of delivering 25,000 vehicles in 2022, a number that it has stuck to despite logistical glitches throughout the year. RIVN stock is now trading at $34.80, well above its May 11 low of $19.25, but shares remain down Rivian stock newsRivian manufactured 7,363 vehicles in the quarter ending in September and delivered 6,584 units. This was a largescale improvement over the previous quarter's production of 4,401 units and deliveries of 4,467. This amounts to QoQ rise in production of 67% and a 47% increase in deliveries. The figures show that management's attempt at ramping up production at its Illinois factory seems to be working.The delivery beat impressed the market as it came right on the heels of Tesla (TSLA) missing its much bigger delivery target by 14,000. Tesla delivered 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter, which was still up more than 42% YoY despite missing Wall Street forecasts.Rivian has dealt with much higher costs for raw materials this year and has stated in the past that its operating loss would end the year much worse than expected. Truist Securities coming out with its Buy rating last week now looks wise. Despite its many failings this year, analysts said the upstart was positioning itself for long-term growth and slapped an optimistic $65 price target on the stock. At the time this meant more than 100% upside in the next 12 months. Consensus among analysts calls for revenue at the automaker to rise 238% in 2023 to $6.16 billion.Rivian stock forecastDespite steadily climbing since its all-time low in May, RIVN stock is down 69% year to date, not counting the premarket advance. At $34.80, Rivian is sitting right on top of the 9-day moving average. A close above it tells us that Rivian bulls want this rally to continue. There has been much talk of an October bear market rally over the past week, and it looks like this may be the case with Rivian. The September downturn was awfully pessimistic, and many traders have begun looking for entries. Just take a look at the normally bearish Michael Burry's tweet below: Bulls will try to push RIVN stock to overtake the 21-day moving average as well this week. The longer time frame average is now at $35.50. From there the focus will be on the $40 price level. That level should be much harder to push past as it served as a double top that began in mid-August and finished in mid-September. Support registers in the area between $31 and $32.RIVN daily chart
NZD/USD: Reserve Bank Of New Zealand Is Expected To Hike The Rate By 50bp

NZD/USD: Reserve Bank Of New Zealand Is Expected To Hike The Rate By 50bp

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.10.2022 16:24
The New Zealand dollar continues to rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5746, up 0.43%. RBNZ likely to deliver 0.50% hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate tightening and is expected to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%, the highest since 2015. Governor Orr has hinted that the rate cycle could be coming to a close soon, but that is still more work to do to tame inflation. In Q2, CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9% in Q1. The economy has performed well, with GDP rising 1.7% in Q2, along with a strong labour market and solid wage growth. This means that Orr can continue to raise rates above 4.0% in the knowledge that the economy is strong enough to handle additional rate hikes. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 6.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. With the US dollar taking a breather, NZD/USD has rebounded this week, with gains of 2.70%. The volatility could well continue, and the New Zealand dollar is likely to face more headwinds in the short term. First, the risk-related currency has been hit hard as risk apprehension has soared. The war in Ukraine has escalated and the energy crisis facing Western Europe could tip many countries into recession this winter. China’s economy has been slowing down, which means less demand for New Zealand exports. Second, the Federal Reserve remains in aggressive mode and is committed to curbing inflation, even if that results in a recession. US Treasury yields have been on an upswing, propelling the US dollar higher against most of the major currencies. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is support at 0.5639 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD/USD - All eyes on RBNZ - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Australian Dollar To US Dollar - The RBA Decision Was Different Than Expected

Australian Dollar To US Dollar - The RBA Decision Was Different Than Expected

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.10.2022 16:17
AUD/USD started the day with losses, but has since recovered. The Aussie is trading at 0.6540, up 0.37%. RBA surprises with 0.25% hike The Reserve Bank of Australia was widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points at today’s meeting, but the Bank surprised the markets with a small increase of 0.25%, which raises the cash rate to 2.35%. Governor Lowe had signalled that he was planning to ease up on the 0.50% increases, but with inflation running at 6.1% and not giving any indications of peaking, expectations were for the Bank to deliver at least one more 0.50% hike. Interestingly, the RBA statement acknowledged that inflation has not yet peaked and is expected to rise to 7.75% in 2002 before dropping to 4.0% in 2023. If soaring inflation has not yet been beaten back, why did the RBA ease up? The answer is likely related to the continuing global economic uncertainty – China’s economy has been slowing and the war in Ukraine is escalating, with Europe facing an energy crisis this winter. The RBA statement included the usual mention that inflation and the labour market will be important factors in future rate policy, but Lowe & Co. will also be closely eyeing global developments. As well, the RBA is anxious to prevent a recession due to the sharp tightening in recent months, and a 0.25% hike will be easier for the economy to absorb than a 0.50% increase. Read next: RBA Missed Market Expectations With Their Interest Rate Decision| FXMAG.COM Over in the US, the Fed hasn’t signalled it will change its aggressive tightening stance just yet. Still, there are signs that the economy is slowing down. On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.9 from 52.9, barely in expansion territory and its lowest level since May 2020. Until inflation is unmistakably moving lower, the Fed is likely to continue delivering outsized rate hikes. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6433. The next support line is 0.6329 There is resistance at 0.6503 and 0.6607 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. RBA underwhelms with modest rate hike - MarketPulseMarketPulse
ENTER AIR Q2’22 RESULTS – Warsaw Stock Exchange

ENTER AIR Q2’22 RESULTS – Warsaw Stock Exchange

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 04.10.2022 16:01
Last recommendation BDM: ACCUMULATE with target price 25,3 PLN/share (2022/07/11) LINK BDM Comment: positive. In Q2'22, the company generated PLN 602.6m in revenues (+ 170.6% y/y), and the number of flights performed significantly increased y/y (the significant increase in revenues compared to 2021 was related to the receding Covid pandemic -19 and the contracting in 2022 suggests that Poles willingly return to planning holidays abroad after the restrictions are lifted). In the area of air services, the company generated PLN 587.2 million of turnover (+ 176.4% y/y), and in the part of in-flight sales, PLN 15.4 million (+ 51.0% y/y). In the discussed period, the cost of sales increased by 133.4% y/y to the level of PLN 533.9 million, and the main factor contributing to the higher level of costs compared to the corresponding period of the previous year is primarily the increase in the costs of materials and energy consumption (+243,1% y/y) due to the greater number of air operations performed. Due to significantly lower costs of external services in 2Q'22 = PLN 184.1 million compared to our expectations, the company generated an EBIT of PLN 58.6 million vs. -PLN 26.5 million, which we assess positively. Enter Air's EBITDA in 2Q'22 amounted to PLN 112.5 million (+ 150.4% y/y). The company's financial balance was at the level of -PLN 95.4m (of which PLN -74.7m were foreign exchange differences from the balance sheet valuation), which is significantly higher than our expectations, which on the other hand had a negative impact vs the deviation from our forecasts . In addition, the result was burdened with a loss on the result of the settlement of entities accounted for using the equity method (PLN -1.7 million - applies to Chair Airlines AG). In the reporting period, the company generated a net profit of PLN -31.0m. In 2Q'22, cash flow from operating activities amounted to PLN 209.2 million (compared to PLN 67.4 million in the previous year), CF investment = PLN -1.4 million, and CF financial = PLN -131.7 million. At the end of June 22, the group had PLN 284.0m in cash (+ PLN 81.8m q/q). With effect as at August 31, 2022, preferential loans for the total amount of PLN 57.0 million were canceled. In addition, Enter signed subsequent annexes changing lease agreements, which mainly concerned changes in the company's schedules and rules regarding the method of calculating lease payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The agreements are designed to reduce the financial burden for the group in the period when the sales revenues are significantly lower. Payments to lessors in 2H'22 and 2023 are estimated at PLN 135 million ($ 30 million) and PLN 262 million ($ 59 million), respectively. According to the company, during the crisis, foreign customers no longer look at the carrier's origin, but at the price for the service, and because Enter is a lowcost carrier, it currently has an advantage over foreign competition and wins many tenders with lower prices and higher quality of services. In line with the company's expectations, the summer season was operationally better than the record years before the pandemic - positive. In the summer season, the company used the entire available fleet of 25 aircraft (23 Boeing 737-800 aircraft and 2 737 MAX 8 aircraft) and two additional machines rented on a wet-lease basisIn 2Q'22, the group generated PLN 215.1 million in revenues, which means an increase by approx. 170.6% y / y. The significant increase in revenues compared to 2021 was related to the ending Covid-19 pandemic. The contracting process in 2022 suggests that Poles willingly return to planning holidays abroad after the restrictions are lifted. • In the discussed period, the cost of sales increased by 133.4% y/y to the level of PLN 533.9 million, and the main factor affecting the higher level of costs compared to the corresponding period of the previous year is primarily the increase in the costs of materials and energy consumption (+243.1% y/y) due to the greater number of air operations performed. • The gross result on sales of the company amounted to PLN 68.7 million (vs PLN -6.0 million in 2Q'21). • At the IFRS16 EBITDA level, Enter Air reported a profit of PLN 112.5m (+ 150.4% y/y).The company's financial balance amounted to PLN -95.4 million (of which PLN -74.7 million were foreign exchange differences from the balance sheet valuation). In addition, the result was burdened with a loss on the result of the settlement of entities accounted for using the equity method (PLN -1.7 million - applies to Chair Airlines AG). • In the reporting period, the company generated a net profit of PLN -31.0m vs. PLN 19.5m of net profit in Q2'21. • In the area of air services, the company achieved PLN 587.6 million of turnover (+ 176.4% y/y), and in the part of in-flight sales, PLN 15.4 million (+ 51.0% y/y). • In the discussed period, cash flow from operating activities amounted to PLN 209.2 million (compared to PLN 67.4 million in the previous year), CF investment = PLN -1.4 million, and CF financial = PLN -131.7 million. At the end of June 22, the group had PLN 284.0m in cash (+ PLN 81.8m q/q). • At the end of June 22, the average employment was 520 people vs 436 in 2021. • With effect as at August 31, 2022, preferential loans for the total amount of PLN 57.0 million were canceled. • The Group signed subsequent annexes changing the lease agreements, which mainly concerned changes in the schedules and rules of the company in the method of calculating lease payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The agreements are designed to reduce the financial burden for the group in the period when the sales revenues are significantly lower. Payments to lessors in 2H'22 and 2023 are estimated at PLN 135 million ($ 30 million) and PLN 262 million ($ 59 million), respectively. • “During the crisis, foreign customers no longer look at the carrier's origin, but at the price for the service, and because we are a low-cost carrier, we now have an advantage over foreign competition and we win many tenders with lower prices and higher quality of services. On the charter market, what matters is the speed of operation, flexibility and reliability of the service. And these elements are our flagship features ”- Grzegorz Polaniecki, member of the board of Enter Air. • In line with the company's expectations, the summer season was operationally better than the record-breaking years before the pandemic. In the summer season, the company used the entire available fleet of 25 aircraft (23 Boeing 737-800 aircraft and 2 737 MAX 8 aircraft) and two additional wet-lease aircraftAnalyst: Krzysztof Tkocz krzysztof.tkocz@bdm.pl tel.: (+48) 516 086 705GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0
Warsaw Stock Exchange – KGL - Summary Of Report

Warsaw Stock Exchange – KGL - Summary Of Report

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 04.10.2022 15:51
The company is catching its breathKGL's results in the second quarter positively surprised us and the company improved its EBIT y/y for the first time since 2020 (PLN 5.1 million vs. PLN 4.8 million a year earlier and our expectation of PLN 1.9 million). We believe that the company is starting to benefit from renegotiated contracts and the beginning of a downward trend in commodity prices. It is possible that the worst for the company is over, but the rising energy costs will be a challenge. KGL had a net debt of PLN 128.4 million at the end of June 2022, which was 3.9x EBITDA for the last four quarters. Debt remains a significant problem, but has recently remained stable. Due to the rebound in margins, we are slightly raising our earnings forecasts for this year and, more clearly, for the coming years. We are increasing our valuation of 1 KGL share from PLN 9.3 to PLN 12.0. At the same time, with the current price of PLN 11.7 per share, we maintain our neutral recommendation. Our valuation and recommendation assume an improvement in margins in the coming quarters. In the past, the company has improved its results when raw material (plastic) prices have fallen, which has been happening in recent months. The price of polypropylene in PLN has already dropped by 32% compared to the peak in April, and the price of PET has fallen by 17% from the peak in July. This means that the very strong pressure on margins visible in the previous quarters should decrease significantly (which was visible in Q2). KGL in the first half of the year renegotiated contracts with product recipients, which was also supposed to improve profitability. On the other hand, the renegotiations were supposed to result in a faster adjustment of product prices to changes in the prices of raw materials. This may mean that the fall in plastic prices will not expand margins, as was the case in the past. An additional risk is the strong increases in energy costs. If they are not fully transferred to customers, the annual result may be reduced by several or several dozen million PLN. The Management Board of KGL made a decision on the possible reclassification of the real estate owned and the change of the financing model for selected assets. The aim is to optimize the use of owned assets from the point of view of operational processes, to improve the costs of financing the business and the asset financing model. The Management Board will consider potential scenarios in terms of possible directions of use of the real estate, not excluding the sale of selected assets and a change in the formula of their use. We believe that the management board's decision stems from the difficult financial situation, especially high debt. The company may be looking for ways to debt relief by selling real estate, although this is probably not the best time to look for a buyer. It is also possible to increase the debt secured on real estate and reduce the share of leasing, which is more expensive. Possible decisions may result from pressure from banks.Risk factors: The most important risk factors that may affect the operations of KGL company include: Regulatory risks. The EU tries to influence the limitation of the use of plastic and increase the share of its recycling through restrictions and taxes. The impact of these regulations on the company is difficult to determine at the moment without knowing the details of the regulations being implemented. The fact that plastic is negatively perceived by lawmakers is certainly a threat to the industry. Risk of exchange rates and commodity prices. A significant part of goods and materials is purchased in foreign currencies (mainly EUR). Due to higher liabilities in EUR than receivables in EUR, the unrealized negative exchange rate differences with a 1% increase in EUR / PLN would amount to approx. PLN 0.67 million (sensitivity at the end of 2021). The prices of raw materials depend to a large extent on oil prices. As a result of the increase in oil prices, the company's revenues and costs are rising, but at the same time the margin decreases and the net effect is negative. ❑ The risk of rising remuneration costs and shortage of employees. The share of employee costs in total costs was growing systematically (from 19.3% in 2015 to 22.6% in 2021) as a result of employee shortages and growing wage pressure. The risk of a conflict of interest. In the company, four long-term managers and founders hold a total of 84.5% of votes at the company's AGM. Additionally, four members of the supervisory board have family ties to them. In such a situation, there is a risk of a conflict of interest at the expense of minority shareholders (mitigated by two independent members of the supervisory board). Risk of over-indebtedness. After 4 years of intensive investments, the company significantly increased its interest debt reaching the level of 3.3x adjusted EBITDA, with simultaneous significant financing by suppliers. The risks that we consider to be high include regulatory issues (political decisions are quite unpredictable and have a large impact on the company), indebtedness and the risk of commodity prices.Marcin Palenik, CFA 22 598 26 71 marcin.palenik@millenniumdm.plGPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0

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